Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 05/01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
835 PM MST WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS WILL DECREASE STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND RETURNS FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ADDED THE LOWER VALLEYS AND DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY TO
TONIGHTS WIND ADVISORY. THE HI RESOLUTION RAP MODEL WAS GOOD WITH
WIND SPEEDS SEEN EARLIER TODAY...AND FOR TONIGHT HAS THE FASTEST LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. N-NE SFC WINDS GUSTING TO
45 MPH TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE FROM THE RIM AND BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS INTO
BAGDAD...BLACK CANYON CITY...LAKE PLEASANT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD AZ FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MODELS INDICATE 40-50 KT 700 MB FLOW FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM
THURSDAY WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL BE COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN TUESDAY AND TODAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE 20-35 MPH WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LOCALLY
STRONGER OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON THURSDAY. ONCE THIS LAST
SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SW AND BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND. ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES AZ SUNDAY OR MONDAY...TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE NOT YET COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS...THOUGH SCT-BKN 130-150 CLOUD BASES ACROSS APACHE COUNTY
TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25KT GUSTS TO 40KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF MOGOLLON RIM...IMPACTING KPRC...KFLG...KPAN...KSEZ. HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH 19Z THU...THEN DECREASING TO 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT ZONE 137 YAVAPAI COUNTY
VALLEYS AND DESERTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS TONIGHT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM....WITH FASTEST SPEEDS A
COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. EXPECT POOR RH RECOVERY IN
THESE AREAS TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. ELSEWHERE WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...
THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR
AZZ008-015-016-018-037-038.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL / DJO
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL / MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
625 PM MST WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS WILL DECREASE STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND RETURNS FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ADDED THE LOWER VALLEYS AND DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY TO
TONIGHTS WIND ADVISORY. THE HI RESOLUTION RAP MODEL WAS GOOD WITH
WIND SPEEDS SEEN EARLIER TODAY...AND FOR TONIGHT HAS THE FASTEST LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. N-NE SFC WINDS GUSTING TO
45 MPH TO MOVE DOWNSLOPE FROM THE RIM AND BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS INTO
BAGDAD...BLACK CANYON CITY...LAKE PLEASANT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD AZ FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MODELS INDICATE 40-50 KT 700 MB FLOW FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM
THURSDAY WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL BE COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN TUESDAY AND TODAY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE 20-35 MPH WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LOCALLY
STRONGER OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON THURSDAY. ONCE THIS LAST
SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
ARIZONA...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SW AND BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND. ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES AZ SUNDAY OR MONDAY...TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE NOT YET COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THIS
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. SCT130-150 COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25KT GUSTS TO 34 KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH 01Z...THEN DECREASING TO 10-20KT. NE WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY 15 TO 25 WITH LOCAL GUST TO 34KTS AFTER 16Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT ZONE 137 YAVAPAI COUNTY
VALLEYS AND DESERTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS TONIGHT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM....WITH FASTEST SPEEDS A
COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. EXPECT POOR RH RECOVERY IN
THESE AREAS TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. ELSEWHERE WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN
WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...
THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR
AZZ008-015-016-018-037-038.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.........DL / DJO
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL / MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...HAVE
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND ARE GENERALLY STILL IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPREADS WESTWARD...ALONG WITH SOME ADIABATIC
COOLING FROM LIFTING ACROSS EAST FACING TERRAIN.
ALSO...SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES...AND THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AREAS OF THE HELDERBERGS AND
SE CATSKILLS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH NOON...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A DOWNSLOPING E/SE
FLOW MAY HELP TO OCCASIONALLY BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NOONTIME...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND
PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
SOME BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN AND WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING IS POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RUC 13/HRRR
AND HI-RES WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING...WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 1-3 PM...INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND
4 PM...ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION/SE ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN 4-6 PM...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 6-8 PM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS DUE TO WET
BULB/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...EXCEPT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE 300 K
SFC...WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A DRY WEDGE AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL ADVECTS
WESTWARD...WHILE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THIS LAYER. GUSTY E/SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED-THU MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...AS WELL AS THE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED INTO WED NT...RESULTING IN THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE
RAIN MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WED AM...BEFORE SEVERAL
SURGES OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP LATE WED AFTN INTO WED
NT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0
TO -2 C RANGE WED NT FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. BY EARLY THU...THE BEST AXIS OF FORCING AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT...AND PERHAPS SW MA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL LINE UP...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ANY POTENTIAL AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THIS AXIS
COULD SET UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT DEEPER CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE DEVELOPING
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NJ OR NYC/LI COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FURTHER N INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED SHOULD BE QUITE COOL GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...WITH
MAXES GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS WILL
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY FROM THESE MAX TEMPS EARLY WED
NT...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN LATE WED NT.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH. IF THIS POTENTIAL
INCREASES FURTHER...THEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
THU AFTN-THU NT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THU NT. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
REACH 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE IF SOME BREAKS OF
SUN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THU NT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE FA WITH SEVERAL VORT
MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ACRS THE SE
PTN OF THE FA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE ACRS THE
WRN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST. SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS SATURDAY ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE AND CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S ONCE AGAIN..
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEIR WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN POPS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC
015-035 WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN HOURS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTN
OR EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH KALB/KGFL...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR FOR THE TAF SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU/KPSF MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS INCREASE. MOST TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BY LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR
KPSF WHICH WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATE AT NIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 08Z.
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUESDAY...AND BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE TO
TH EAST LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS WILL BE NW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND 40-50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 75-90
PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH A WETTING RAINFALL DEVELOPING. THE RH WILL
FALL INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT TO 10-20 MPH...THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 15-30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO NW CT...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.THE RAIN
COULD COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS
1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BACK RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DURING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...SOME OF
THE RIVER POINTS IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WOULD REACH ACTION STAGE
WITH CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
BASIN AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND STEVENSON DAM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECASTED
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD FUTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...HAVE
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND ARE GENERALLY STILL IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPREADS WESTWARD...ALONG WITH SOME ADIABATIC
COOLING FROM LIFTING ACROSS EAST FACING TERRAIN.
THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A DOWNSLOPING E/SE
FLOW MAY HELP TO OCCASIONALLY BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NOONTIME...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND
PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
SOME BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN AND WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING IS POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RUC 13/HRRR
AND HI-RES WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING...WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 1-3 PM...INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND
4 PM...ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION/SE ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN 4-6 PM...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 6-8 PM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS DUE TO WET
BULB/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...EXCEPT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE 300 K
SFC...WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A DRY WEDGE AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL ADVECTS
WESTWARD...WHILE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THIS LAYER. GUSTY E/SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED-THU MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...AS WELL AS THE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED INTO WED NT...RESULTING IN THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE
RAIN MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WED AM...BEFORE SEVERAL
SURGES OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP LATE WED AFTN INTO WED
NT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0
TO -2 C RANGE WED NT FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. BY EARLY THU...THE BEST AXIS OF FORCING AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT...AND PERHAPS SW MA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL LINE UP...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ANY POTENTIAL AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THIS AXIS
COULD SET UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT DEEPER CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE DEVELOPING
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NJ OR NYC/LI COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FURTHER N INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED SHOULD BE QUITE COOL GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...WITH
MAXES GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS WILL
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY FROM THESE MAX TEMPS EARLY WED
NT...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN LATE WED NT.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH. IF THIS POTENTIAL
INCREASES FURTHER...THEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
THU AFTN-THU NT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THU NT. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
REACH 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE IF SOME BREAKS OF
SUN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THU NT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE FA WITH SEVERAL VORT
MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ACRS THE SE
PTN OF THE FA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE ACRS THE
WRN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST. SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS SATURDAY ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE AND CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S ONCE AGAIN..
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEIR WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN POPS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC
015-035 WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN HOURS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTN
OR EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH KALB/KGFL...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR FOR THE TAF SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU/KPSF MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS INCREASE. MOST TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BY LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR
KPSF WHICH WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATE AT NIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 08Z.
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUESDAY...AND BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE TO
TH EAST LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS WILL BE NW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND 40-50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 75-90
PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH A WETTING RAINFALL DEVELOPING. THE RH WILL
FALL INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT TO 10-20 MPH...THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 15-30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO NW CT...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.THE RAIN
COULD COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS
1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BACK RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DURING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...SOME OF
THE RIVER POINTS IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WOULD REACH ACTION STAGE
WITH CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
BASIN AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND STEVENSON DAM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECASTED
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD FUTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...HAVE
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND ARE GENERALLY STILL IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPREADS WESTWARD...ALONG WITH SOME ADIABATIC
COOLING FROM LIFTING ACROSS EAST FACING TERRAIN.
THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A DOWNSLOPING E/SE
FLOW MAY HELP TO OCCASIONALLY BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NOONTIME...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND
PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
SOME BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN AND WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING IS POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RUC 13/HRRR
AND HI-RES WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING...WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 1-3 PM...INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND
4 PM...ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION/SE ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN 4-6 PM...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 6-8 PM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS DUE TO WET
BULB/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...EXCEPT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE 300 K
SFC...WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A DRY WEDGE AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL ADVECTS
WESTWARD...WHILE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THIS LAYER. GUSTY E/SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED-THU MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...AS WELL AS THE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED INTO WED NT...RESULTING IN THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE
RAIN MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WED AM...BEFORE SEVERAL
SURGES OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP LATE WED AFTN INTO WED
NT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0
TO -2 C RANGE WED NT FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. BY EARLY THU...THE BEST AXIS OF FORCING AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT...AND PERHAPS SW MA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL LINE UP...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ANY POTENTIAL AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THIS AXIS
COULD SET UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT DEEPER CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE DEVELOPING
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NJ OR NYC/LI COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FURTHER N INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED SHOULD BE QUITE COOL GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...WITH
MAXES GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS WILL
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY FROM THESE MAX TEMPS EARLY WED
NT...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN LATE WED NT.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH. IF THIS POTENTIAL
INCREASES FURTHER...THEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
THU AFTN-THU NT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THU NT. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
REACH 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE IF SOME BREAKS OF
SUN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THU NT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE FA WITH SEVERAL VORT
MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ACRS THE SE
PTN OF THE FA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE ACRS THE
WRN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST. SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS SATURDAY ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE AND CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S ONCE AGAIN..
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEIR WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN POPS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STAY DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF...MOST SITES WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT
AND BKN-OVC CIGS AT 25K BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN HOURS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTN
OR EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH KALB/KGFL...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
STAY VFR FOR THESE SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU/KPSF MAY SEE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS INCREASE. MOST TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY BY LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF
WHICH WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUESDAY...AND BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND 40-50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 75-90
PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH A WETTING RAINFALL DEVELOPING. THE RH WILL
FALL INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT TO 10-20 MPH...THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 15-30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO NW CT...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.THE RAIN
COULD COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS
1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BACK RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DURING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...SOME OF
THE RIVER POINTS IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WOULD REACH ACTION STAGE
WITH CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
BASIN AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND STEVENSON DAM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECASTED
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD FUTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
657 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2014
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF FLASH AND RIVERINE FLOODING
EXPECTED AS WELL...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]... During the late afternoon our CWA
experienced a lull with mostly stratiform precipitation over land
areas and scattered thunderstorms well offshore. However by 6 PM
EDT...radar... satellite and upstream obs indicated next round of
strong to possible severe convection entering our Wrn most
counties in the form of a potent MCS tracking EWD across Wrn FL
Panhandle. All this assocd with increasing moisture flux and high
cape advecting newd ahead of mid-south cold front. Satellite water
vapor shows increasingly tall Tcu advecting newd under strong
moisture flux into srn edge of MCS aiding in cell mergers and
convergence. This reflected in increasingly impressive lighting
plots. Latest HRRR implies that Panhandle storms could become
quite organized later this eve. A Severe tstm warning was just
issued for these storms moving Ewd around 25 mph just before
entering Walton County.
SPENES estimates 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates with this system.
With redevelopment expected to occur on back edge of slow moving MCS
and higher moisture flux/cape advancing Ewd...additional heavy rains
are expected through this evening across especially FL Panhandle and
adjacent SE AL/SW GA and will be closely monitored for flooding
concerns in addition to severe weather. Weak steering flow and
SWLY steering flow would favor training of incoming cells so isold
areas could expect 3-5 inches which on top of already saturated
grounds would aggravate flooding concerns. For now flash flood
watch will remain in place through Wednesday evening for all but
the Valdosta region and the SE Big Bend.
&&
.Marine...
Strong and gusty onshore winds over the Panhandle waters
necessitated the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory thru sunrise
as the pressure gradient tightens around an approaching cold front
moving from west to east. Exercise caution level winds are
expected for the remaining waters. After the cold front passes on
Wednesday, offshore winds will prevail through the weekend until
high pressure builds in the Gulf on Sunday switching our
prevailing winds out of the east.
&&
.Prev Discussion [319 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The closed mid-upper level low over the Upper Mississippi River
Valley will finally eject to the northeast and across the Great
Lakes region on Thursday. Even so, the local area will remain
under deep southwest flow. The associated surface cold front will
move into our western zones Wednesday and slowly push east our FA
by Thursday night. An ongoing severe weather threat will mark the
beginning of the period as a squall continues to advance from west
to east. The current thinking as that the leading edge of strong
to severe convection will be entering our western GA zones and the
western Florida Big Bend. Forecast CAPE values are over 2000 J/JG
and local CAM models continue to generate very high updraft
helicity and updraft velocity values, so an isolated strong
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. There will be an accompanying
flash flooding threat which is detailed below in the hydrology
section. Rain chances will continue until the frontal passage late
Thursday or Thursday night but the severe threat should end after
Wednesday.
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The stubborn surface low that has been stuck over the CONUS for
the past few days finally begins to lift into eastern Canada by
Friday. The associated trailing cold front will finally push
through our area for good bringing with it the chance for showers
on Friday afternoon. Behind the front ridging will settle in
place. Rain chances will be minimal and southerly flow at the end
of the period will bring sticky conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 60.
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] Rain and thunderstorms will come to an
end this evening from west to east. Expect IFR/LIFR CIGS and VI`S
to develop due to plentiful boundary layer moisture and frontal
forcing. Winds will increase again tomorrow morning out of the
south and additional thunderstorms will impact DHN and ABY,
bringing potentially gusty winds and low CIGS/VI`S.
.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals this morning are already in the 1 to 3 inch range
across the region. Rain will continue this afternoon throughout
most of the region. Another 1 to 3 inches is expected this
afternoon, particularly in the eastern half of the CWA. Another
round of rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
tomorrow. This will bring an additional 2 to 5 inches of rainfall
with isolated higher amounts possible. Flash flooding will be
possible tomorrow.
Flooding continues on the Suwannee River in the eastern Big Bend,
but most other rivers have receded. Rainfall totals will be
sufficient to bring many rivers into minor flood stage once again.
There is uncertainty about how much the rivers will rise, since most
of the rain hasn`t fallen yet.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHAPS page (below).
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 70 84 67 80 59 / 40 60 50 50 50
Panama City 72 79 63 76 58 / 70 70 40 50 50
Dothan 70 78 59 76 53 / 80 70 40 40 30
Albany 70 81 63 77 55 / 60 70 60 40 30
Valdosta 69 87 67 80 57 / 30 50 50 50 50
Cross City 70 86 69 82 62 / 20 40 30 50 60
Apalachicola 73 79 66 75 58 / 40 60 40 50 60
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland
Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
South Walton-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-
Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/WALSH
AVIATION...BARRY/WALSH
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
LATEST RAP AND LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL CAP AND HIGH
LFC. HRRR SHOWS LIMITED COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
UPSTREAM RADAR ANALYSIS NOT IMPRESSIVE. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. A COOL BIAS NOTED
IN MOS BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. EXPECT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE IS FARTHER EAST. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY IN THE EAST SECTION. THE MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH NO RETURNS ON RADAR...OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED TO
OUR WEST...ACROSS E TENN AND NW GA TO THE GULF COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE INTO OUR FA TONIGHT. A MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL COOLING MAY PROMOTE
MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY THURSDAY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY...THOUGH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD STILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OGB TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHRA OR PSBL THUNDER
THERE THRU EARLY AFTN.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
731 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2015Z...LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LATEST RAP AND LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL CAP AND HIGH LFC. HRRR SHOWS
LIMITED COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. UPSTREAM RADAR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z NOT IMPRESSIVE. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE
COVERAGE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION. CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE IS FARTHER EAST. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY IN THE EAST SECTION. THE MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH NO RETURNS ON RADAR...OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED TO
OUR WEST...ACROSS E TENN AND NW GA TO THE GULF COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE INTO OUR FA TONIGHT. A MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL COOLING MAY PROMOTE
MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY THURSDAY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY...THOUGH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD STILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OGB TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHRA OR PSBL THUNDER
THERE THRU EARLY AFTN.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
412 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LI/S
WERE -4 TO -7. RADAR AT 19Z NOT SHOWING ANY SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID LEVEL CAP AND TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
LACKING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST
WAS LIMITING THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWED LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RAP MODEL.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -6 TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH SHEAR. EXPECT H85 WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE NORTH PART IF THE WEDGE FRONT PERSISTS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LACK OF SHORT WAVE TRIGGER.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WILL LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCE
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NEAR STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT MAY SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT...SO CHANCE POPS
AND INCREASING TO THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE
A 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT JUST OFF
THE COAST. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOVE 0 BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING JUST
TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO DOMINATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATE POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT EARLY...AND LESS THAN 20
PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION WHICH WILL ACT TO
LIMIT CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH OF THE TAF SITES CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO MOVE IN WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY
IFR...DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AROUND 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ANTICIPATED NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION. THE DAYTIME
PERIOD HAS BEEN LARGELY A LULL IN ACTIVITY DUE TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA AND CAPPING FROM LINGERING
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE THAT HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MIX OUT. OUT OF
THE SUITE OF HI-RES SOLUTIONS...THE RUC...LOCAL WRF...AND HRRR HAVE
BEEN TRENDING THE BEST WITH PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENT AND LACK THEREOF SO
HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THEM WITH OVERNIGHT POPS AND GREATEST
STORM POTENTIAL. THESE MODELS AGREE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER BY 20-21Z...WHICH SEEMS LEGIT GIVEN
AN OBSERVED MESO-LOW TRACKING ALONG THE SFC FRONT IN SOUTHERN MS AND
ALREADY SEEING SOME ENHANCED CU FIELD DEVELOPING. THE EVOLUTION OF
DEVELOPMENT BRINGS CELLS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT THEN SPREADING NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE MAIN THREATS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE
LOOKING TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG...0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 150
M2/S2...0-1KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS...AND 0-6KM BULK IN THE 50-60
KT ZONE FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 01Z-07Z PERIOD ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH INCREASING SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN STP VALUES APPROACHING
2. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUPPORTS EMBEDDED OR SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE 00Z-09Z PERIOD...THEN BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL AS A MORE LINEAR SWATH SETS UP. THIS AGREES WITH CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS AS TRAINING CELLS STALLING ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR
IN THE MORNING HOURS IS POSSIBLE. THERE COULD THEREFORE BE AN
INCREASED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS ON QPF WITH THE EVENT.
THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE THAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
WHILE THE GREATEST POPS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ATTM.
BAKER
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT..ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. THE DIFFICULTY THEN BECOMES THE SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER MAINLY SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS SOME
LESSER MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. AFTER 12Z SAT THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM THEN BACK TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM.
01
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HPC QPF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM TRENDS IN
THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD 2 INCHES AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH TRAINING CELLS ALONG AND NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCE FROM WEST. EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP NEAR 4 KFT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TSRA POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SITES ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING IN THE 01Z-05Z PERIOD AND COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. PRECIP AXIS MAY LINGER
ACROSS KATL AND NEARBY SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPMENT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS KMCN TONIGHT. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW 12-15 KTS
GUSTING 18-22 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT PRECIP.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 78 55 74 / 100 80 50 20
ATLANTA 65 75 53 71 / 100 60 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 61 70 50 67 / 100 70 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 76 49 71 / 100 60 10 10
COLUMBUS 68 80 57 74 / 60 60 40 20
GAINESVILLE 64 75 53 70 / 100 70 30 10
MACON 68 82 58 75 / 40 70 60 30
ROME 65 76 48 70 / 90 60 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 65 76 51 72 / 100 60 20 20
VIDALIA 70 86 67 78 / 30 60 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
344 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LI/S
WERE -4 TO -7. RADAR AT 19Z NOT SHOWING ANY SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID LEVEL CAP AND TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
LACKING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST
WAS LIMITING THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWED LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RAP MODEL.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -6 TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH SHEAR. EXPECT H85 WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE NORTH PART IF THE WEDGE FRONT PERSISTS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LACK OF SHORT WAVE TRIGGER.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WILL LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCE
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NEAR STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT MAY SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT...SO CHANCE POPS
AND INCREASING TO THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE
A 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT JUST OFF
THE COAST. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOVE 0 BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING JUST
TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO DOMINATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATE POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT EARLY...AND LESS THAN 20
PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION LIMITING CONVECTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE HEATING AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH THE CLOUDS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
REMAINED WITH VCTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
CLOUD BASES CONTINUING TO LOWER MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LI/S
WERE -4 TO -7. SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED MAINLY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL
TO THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF
COAST WAS LIMITING THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWED LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -6 TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH SHEAR. EXPECT H85 WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE NORTH PART IF THE WEDGE FRONT PERSISTS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE
A 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT JUST OFF
THE COAST. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOVE 0 BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING JUST
TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO DOMINATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATE POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT EARLY...AND LESS THAN 20
PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION LIMITING CONVECTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE HEATING AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH THE CLOUDS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
REMAINED WITH VCTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
CLOUD BASES CONTINUING TO LOWER MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014/
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKING TO BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
.UPDATE...
MADE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO POP AND WEATHER TRENDS TODAY AS
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND OBS TRENDS SUGGEST LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL
AFTER ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAK IN ACTION. OF
THE SUITE OF HI-RES SOLUTIONS...THE RUC HAS VERIFIED THE BEST
INITIALLY AND TRIGGERS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER WHICH SEEMS LEGIT GIVEN AN AREA OF SOLAR SHELTERING
OCCURRING WITH LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD
MAKE THERE WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR 23/00Z.
STILL DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
OF IT PROPAGATING INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. ALSO LATEST HPC QPF LOOKS
REASONABLE SO HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID WEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS DIFFICULT...AND
THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT POPS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE FRONT
MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST GA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE
IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT..ENDING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE DIFFICULTY THEN BECOMES THE SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES THRU ABOUT
12Z SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL GA AS SOME LESSER MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
AFTER 12Z SAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM THEN BACK TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPACTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH GA TO 1 TO 2
INCHES CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD MINOR AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN NORTH GA IN
URBAN AREAS AND IN ROLLING HILLS OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAINS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. MOST STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL NORTH GA
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCE FROM WEST. EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP NEAR 4 KFT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TSRA POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SITES ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING IN THE 01Z-05Z PERIOD AND COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. PRECIP AXIS MAY LINGER
ACROSS KATL AND NEARBY SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPMENT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS KMCN TONIGHT. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW 12-15 KTS
GUSTING 18-22 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT PRECIP.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 66 79 55 / 40 80 90 60
ATLANTA 75 66 75 54 / 50 80 90 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 61 70 49 / 70 90 90 20
CARTERSVILLE 76 64 74 50 / 60 90 90 20
COLUMBUS 78 67 78 57 / 40 70 90 40
GAINESVILLE 74 65 73 53 / 40 90 90 20
MACON 77 69 81 58 / 80 60 80 60
ROME 79 64 74 50 / 70 90 80 20
PEACHTREE CITY 77 67 75 53 / 40 80 90 20
VIDALIA 82 69 83 63 / 50 50 60 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1122 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKING TO BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
.UPDATE...
MADE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO POP AND WEATHER TRENDS TODAY AS
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND OBS TRENDS SUGGEST LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL
AFTER ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAK IN ACTION. OF
THE SUITE OF HI-RES SOLUTIONS...THE RUC HAS VERIFIED THE BEST
INITIALLY AND TRIGGERS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER WHICH SEEMS LEGIT GIVEN AN AREA OF SOLAR SHELTERING
OCCURRING WITH LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD
MAKE THERE WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR 23/00Z.
STILL DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
OF IT PROPAGATING INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. ALSO LATEST HPC QPF LOOKS
REASONABLE SO HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID WEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS DIFFICULT...AND
THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT POPS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE FRONT
MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST GA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE
IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT..ENDING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE DIFFICULTY THEN BECOMES THE SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES THRU ABOUT
12Z SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL GA AS SOME LESSER MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
AFTER 12Z SAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM THEN BACK TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPACTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH GA TO 1 TO 2
INCHES CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD MINOR AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN NORTH GA IN
URBAN AREAS AND IN ROLLING HILLS OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAINS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. MOST STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL NORTH GA
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND HAVE REMOVED MOST
COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH. EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT NOT SEVERE. SHOULD BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE THEN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR BUT EXPECT MVFR OR IFR WITH RAIN. WINDS WILL VARY AROUND 180
TODAY 10 TO 15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT ESPECIALLY IN STORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 79 55 73 / 80 90 60 10
ATLANTA 66 75 54 70 / 80 90 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 61 70 49 66 / 90 90 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 64 74 50 70 / 90 90 20 10
COLUMBUS 67 78 57 73 / 70 90 40 10
GAINESVILLE 65 73 53 69 / 90 90 20 10
MACON 69 81 58 74 / 60 80 60 30
ROME 64 74 50 69 / 90 80 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 75 53 71 / 80 90 20 10
VIDALIA 69 83 63 75 / 50 60 70 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM...BDL
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
416 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
309 AM CDT
MASSIVE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS A VERY
IMPRESSIVE REX BLOCK AS SET UP WITH A NEARLY 580DM UPPER HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY. MODELS DO WEAKEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WHICH ALLOWS UPPER LOW TO WOBBLE NORTHWARD WHILE SLOWLY FILLING
AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE REGION GRADUALLY LESSENING.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING.
BAROCLINICITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMNANT WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A PRONOUNCE MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING AND RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNED THAT THIS MIXED SUNSHINE COULD RESULT IN MODEST SFC BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. MANY OF THE VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE DEPICTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE MODEST...THE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH 0-4KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KT
(ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE) DOES
RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT A LOW TOPPED/MINI SUPERCELL SCENARIO
POTENTIALLY UNFOLDING TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND STORM MOTION
SHOULD BE LARGELY PERPENDICULAR TO THE WARM FRONT...SO EVEN IF MINI
SUP`S DO MATERIALIZE ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF AND VERY
LIKELY ON THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY SPECTRUM BUT SOMETHING TO
MONITOR TODAY NONE THE LESS.
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SIZABLE BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
LIKELY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO AREA TONIGHT. REALLY IT SHOULD
BE THE SAME STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OCNL BOUTS
OF AT LEAST SCT`D SHOWERS. TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES PIVOTING
AROUND THE WOBBLING UPPER LOW IS DIFFICULT A DAY OR TWO OUT...BUT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF AT LEAST SCTD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY HOURS LIKELY OUT
NUMBERING RAINY HOURS BY A SIGNIFICANT RATIO.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP NICELY
GIVEN SOME MIXED SUNSHINE AND THE LIMITED WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE. OVER TIME THE UPPER COLD POOL WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA AND SHOULD KEEP SKIES LARGELY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MUCH
COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSITION TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODEL BLENDED COCKTAIL DID COME UP WITH POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ATTEMPTED TO BACK OFF SOME BUT RELUCTANTLY
WAS LEFT WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS WEEKEND IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST...BUT SUSPECT THOSE POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH ARND 11Z...WITH A BREAK IN PCPN
POTENTIAL UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* ELY-ESELY WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN VEERING
SLY WITH OCNL GUSTS TO ARND 15KT.
* IFR AND OCNL LIFR CIGS UNTIL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN 10-12Z.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE PCPN HAS LIFTED NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...BUT IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS
STILL THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE. AS OF 09Z...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO ANYWHERE FROM 200FT TO
500FT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE WARM
FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NWD WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN IL/IN BTWN
10-12Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SLY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SFC WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SO
ANTICIPATE THAT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN
10KT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
MIDWEST...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LOWER EXTENT AND DURATION OF IFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. A STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AS THE WARM FRONT INCHES NORTHWARD...THE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND WEAKENING. HAVE
LET THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EXPIRE
AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAS
ALREADY WEAKENED ENOUGH TO LET WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW GALE
FORCE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
WINDS FINALLY DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH UP THE LAKE...RELATIVELY WARMER AND
MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COLDER WATERS OF THE LAKE...WHICK
WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. THIS FOG MAY BE OCCASIONALLY
DENSE...AND WILL CONTINUE CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WHILE A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GENERAL LOW PRESSURE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
CONTINUED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
351 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2014
Upper low over the Missouri River Valley this morning with an
occluding sfc low...and occluded front wrapped up all the way over
into Central Illinois. Forecast both deceptively simple and
problematic. Very little in the way of detail available with the
upper low parking over the center of the country and keeping much
of the Midwest under the influence of the cyclonic flow. Cloudy,
cool, and periodic rain chances will keep ILX in a rather
springlike pattern for most of the remains of the week. By the
weekend, the upper low ejects to the NE, with Central Illinois in
northwesterly flow. Although it is a pattern shift, northwesterly
flow is just as dominated by periodic precip. Forecast peppered
with pops through Day 7, and cooler than average overall.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Though models hinting to keep us dry this morning with some drier
air on sat imagery, most models quickly get showery again this
afternoon under the upper low. With cyclonic flow aloft, any
clearing will lend itself to a diurnal shower pattern. Pops in the
overnight tonight may be slightly overdone, once the diurnal
influence disappears at dusk, but will have to see the wave pattern
pushing around the low today to see if another dynamic may hold
the showers over into the night hours. Tomorrow is similarly
cloudy but even cooler as more cold air builds into the region.
Similar afternoon shower potential. Keeping thunder out of the
forecast as the low further occludes and loses a bit of potency.
Tomorrow night shower pops starting to erode...and maintain the
better chances closer to the low center as it begins to drift
across the nrn tier of the state and open up.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Cloudy, cool, and another chance of afternoon showers for
Thursday, though if the models continue to push the upper low out
on Thursday afternoon/evening, that influence may go away and dry
out that pd. For Friday through the weekend...Cooler temps and
northwesterly flow. Pops are low overall bc there is little
consistency from model to model with small wave rippling through
the flow aloft. A southerly component to the winds and a building
ridge over the Plains slowly bring temps up late in the weekend.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
tonight through Tuesday afternoon, before MVFR ceilings gradually
spread in from the west. Earlier rains have pushed east of the TAF
sites late this evening, leaving behind a mid-level overcast and
dry conditions. Clouds will tend to thin/dissipate as the night
progresses, with partly sunny skies noted by Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, an upper-level low currently centered over eastern
Kansas will slowly track eastward, spreading lower clouds and
scattered showers into the area toward midday into the afternoon.
Based on HRRR and NAM data, have introduced VCSH at KPIA and KSPI
by 18z, then further east to KCMI after 22z. While clouds will
thicken/lower later in the day, MVFR ceilings will hold off until
evening between 00z and 03z. Winds will initially be light from
the E/SE tonight, but then will become gusty out of the S/SW on
Tuesday. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts of
around 20kt across much of the area and in the 20 to 25kt range
further east at KCMI.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
230 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM 17Z...
THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. AS OF 16 UTC...THIS FRONT IS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF
KSPI...EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR KDEC AND TO THE NORTH OF KRSV IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO MY FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT FEATURES TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY NEAR 60 AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE TYPICAL LOW IFR CIGS AND EASTERLY COOL
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT A MID LEVEL VORT MAX/IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 70 KT...PER 12 UTC RAOBS OUT OF
KSGF AND KLZK AND THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL EJECT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS.
A MID LEVEL COLD POOL...FEATURING 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18
C...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME SUPER CELLS...AND GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...THIS AFTERNOON LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. IT STILL APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SMALL TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CLOSER PROXIMATELY TO
THE UPPER LOW...WHERE BETTER VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE PRESENT.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80...AND THE MAIN TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND 3-4
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7-8 PM THIS EVENING.
KJB
TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ANY
STORMS THAT PASS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO THE CWFA
COULD PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WITH SUCH A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING FOR THE BULK OF THE CWFA...WHICH
KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE EXCEPTION IS
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THE STRONG EAST FLOW HAS
HELD TEMPS IN THE UPR 40S. KILX 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES...ABOVE THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. AN ARC OF STORMS WAS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHWEST. GIVEN
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...MAINLY WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION HELICITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
INCREASED...WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD BEGIN TO ROTATE. THUS THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT ZERO. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THOUGH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY WEDGE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWFA THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM EARLIER THINKING...WHICH
WAS MAINLY JUST A LOWERING OF POPS TO SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION IT DOES APPEAR THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END
ARND MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TUE MORNING. THE
DOMINANT LONGWAVE FEATURE REMAINS THE SFC RIDGE PARKED OVER HUDSON
BAY...WHICH HAS REMAINED VERY STRONG. THIS IS CREATING A
LOG-JAM...IN THAT THE MID-LVL VORT/SFC LOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
DEPART THE REGION VERY QUICKLY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH SOME HEATING AT THE SFC EXPECTED
TUE...AND MID-LVL INSTABILITY...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP. FORTUNATELY THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUE AFTN. THEN FOR WED IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH TEMPS
BEING ABLE TO REACH THE LOW/MID 60S. THEN WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR
SHIELDING WED/THUR TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE
50S. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN INDICATING A HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEVELOPING
ACROSS ALASKA AND COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN A SLOW RELAXING OF THE TROUGH INTO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...THEN A WEAK WAVE IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH ARND 09Z...WITH A BREAK IN PCPN
POTENTIAL UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* ELY-ESELY WINDS ARND 10KT THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN VEERING
SLY WITH OCNL GUSTS TO ARND 15KT.
* VARIABLE CIGS BTWN VFR AND MVFR. OCNL BRIEF PERIODS IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ARND 10Z.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD...DEEP UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN MOVING NWD DRIVEN BY STRONG SLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...SO SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELY-ESELY UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS STILL
THROUGH CNTRL IL/IN...BUT SLOWLY MOVING NWD. CIGS WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN WHILE THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF IFR CIGS OVER THE AREA...WITH RFD/DPA/GYY STARTING OUT
THE PERIOD WITH IFR CIGS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF
CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR AT ORD/MDW...BUT TIMING AND DURATION REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...SO WILL KEEP CIGS AT LOWER END MVFR AT ORD/MDW FOR
NOW...THOUGH AMENDMENTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN IL/IN BTWN
12-15Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SLY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SFC WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SO
ANTICIPATE THAT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN
10KT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
MIDWEST...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND DURATION OF IFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF SCT SHRA...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY REACHING NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PIVOT NORTH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT LYING WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE LAKE BY LATE TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THIS REGION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....
AND AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER FAR NORTHERN
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER EARLY EVENING AS
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS NORTH FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE COLDER
WATERS OF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...
OCCASIONALLY DENSE... CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WHILE A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN... LOW PRESSURE
AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 25 KTS LATE WEEK HOWEVER
WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
Line of convection has pushed east of the I-55 corridor and
weakened considerably this evening as it encountered a more stable
airmass across east-central Illinois. 01z/8PM surface analysis
shows 992mb low over western Iowa, with warm frontal boundary
extending eastward across the far northern KILX CWA. Meanwhile, a
cold front/dryline is analyzed arcing southeastward from the low
to near I-55. Showers/storms will continue ahead of the dryline
for the next couple of hours before diminishing and pushing into
Indiana around midnight. Updated the forecast to better reflect
hourly temps and expected POP trends for the remainder of the
night. New zones have already been sent.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
tonight through Tuesday afternoon, before MVFR ceilings gradually
spread in from the west. Earlier rains have pushed east of the TAF
sites late this evening, leaving behind a mid-level overcast and
dry conditions. Clouds will tend to thin/dissipate as the night
progresses, with partly sunny skies noted by Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, an upper-level low currently centered over eastern
Kansas will slowly track eastward, spreading lower clouds and
scattered showers into the area toward midday into the afternoon.
Based on HRRR and NAM data, have introduced VCSH at KPIA and KSPI
by 18z, then further east to KCMI after 22z. While clouds will
thicken/lower later in the day, MVFR ceilings will hold off until
evening between 00z and 03z. Winds will initially be light from
the E/SE tonight, but then will become gusty out of the S/SW on
Tuesday. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts of
around 20kt across much of the area and in the 20 to 25kt range
further east at KCMI.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
Main concerns will be storms developing over the area and moving
in from the west this afternoon and early tonight. Then the
concern will shift and become the continue chances of diurnal
precip for the rest of the week as the upper level low slowly
drifts eastward into the Great Lakes region later this week. Models
look ok with the overall pattern and sfc features through the
period. Only differences seen will be in the mesoscale features
for rest of the afternoon and into tonight.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Tornado watch continues til 7pm as storms have fired on the dry
line in MO early this afternoon. These storms will be moving
northeast and northerly during the period over the western parts
of the area. Hail appears to be the main threat right now, but
isolated tornadoes will also be possible if the storms begin to
rotate. The storms are low-topped and will remain that way.
Thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow as the upper level
low will still be northwest of the area, though closer than today.
Severe weather is not expected tomorrow as the best moisture will
have moved east of the area. Skies will also be cloudy south of
the low system, so instability will be quite low. Then diurnal
showers will be possible remainder of the period as the the
forecast area remains in cyclonic flow through the week. This flow
will also have temps much cooler through the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
Cyclonic flow continues through the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Then by end of the weekend, the system will push out of
the area. We will finally have some dry periods as high pressure
builds in for a brief period. Then another system is expected to
move into the area for Sunday.
Temps will remain on the cool side through the period.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR NEMESIS OF A BROAD STACKED LOW CENTERED
OVER EASTERN IOWA. EAST KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM/S SOUPY WARM
SECTOR AS DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING TO COME BACK UP FROM THE MIDDAY
DROPOFF WITH SOME NOW TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. EXPECT THESE
TO CONTINUE TO COME UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S BOUNDARY AND
ITS ILL-FATED ATTEMPT TO PULL AWAYS FROM THIS PART OF THE STATE. THIS
BONUS CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY ARRIVES FOR EAST
KENTUCKY CLOSER TOWARD SUNSET AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE
BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE BROAD CUT
OFF LOW SLOWLY TUMBLING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL INVOLVE A COUPLE OF LINGERING SHORTWAVES
RIDING THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE LOW...RUNNING ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST
OF THESE MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHILE ANOTHER PASSES
BY LATER WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST
WHILE LEANING TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WHILE LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SHOULD BE SOME DISCREET CELLS EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.
HAVE TIMED THESE THROUGH THE CWA MAINLY IN THE EVENING EXPECTING MORE
STABLE AIR TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM THE EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WHERE ANY STORMS TRAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE FFG IS THE LOWEST THERE OWING TO THE TWO PLUS
INCHES THAT FELL THERE LAST NIGHT. THERE REMAINS JUST TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PART OF THE EAST
KENTUCKY WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS HEAVIER BAND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE NAM PLACING ITS OWN TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER FFG AREAS. WILL
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH THE EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE SHORTER FUSE
WATCH DEPENDING HOW THE STORMS AND ANY TRAINING DEVELOPS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH NOON
IN THE WEST UNTIL THE LIS GO STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SFC WINDS GO WEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH. DID DROP
THE THUNDER FURTHER EAST WITH TIME. CARRIED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RATHER
PALTRY POST COLD FRONT.
USED THE CONSSHORT...AND THE BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL PRELOADED THEREAFTER.
MADE ONLY SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NUMBERS MAINLY TO CAPTURE THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FORECAST...CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY. AFTER
THIS THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY AS A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH ANY PASSING SHORT WAVES...AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THIS WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED MODEL AND INHERITED FORECAST
APPROACH FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WHICH
YIELDS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN
LATER FORECASTS AS IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO A WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z TO 01Z AND THEN FURTHER SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS ALLOWING FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST INCREASING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 25
KNOTS. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS CIGS AND VIS IMPROVE...BUT SHOWERS REMAIN
AROUND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CU HAS DEVELOPED WHERE
THE CIRRUS THINNED. TO THE WEST...THOUGH...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO
PARTLY SUNNY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. THIS WILL BE THE FUEL TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR STILL KEEPS THE CONVECTION
OUT OF HERE THROUGH 00Z...BUT ALREADY A FEW PIN PRICK SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES ARE POPPING UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INDICATING THAT
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING REACHED. STILL EXPECT THE STRONGER
STORMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET...STARTING TO THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE A EXTREME AS THEY WERE EARLIER...BUT STILL
INDICATE DECENT KEY INDICES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS AND
SHIPPED THEM TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AND MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF
EAST KENTUCKY. THE LATEST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED FAR EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH THE LATEST HRRR
DOES HOLD THEM IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT
10 AM VARY FRO THE LOW 60S WITH THE RAIN IN THE FAR EAST TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE IS THE FADING
OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE LAST CONVECTIVE WAVE NOW
EXITING. THESE ARE DISSOLVING FAST OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA...JUSTIFYING OUR CONCERN FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER INSTABILITY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE BENEATH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE WEATHER A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD FAVOR FORMING LINES AND BOWS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO
OCCURRENCES. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE THOUGHTS...
ALLOWING STORMS TO REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE 00Z IN THE WEST...A BLENDING
OF THE 12Z NAM AND THE HRRR...AND GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. DO EXPECT THE
INSTABILITY TO BE WORKED OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO FOLLOW MORE
SUBDUED. DID ALSO UPDATE THE T AND TD GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT WITH A ZONE AND
SPS TOUCH UP TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
ALSO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ADDRESS THIS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL LOOKING GOOD TO GO AND WILL LET THE ZFP
RIDE A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ASPECT IS APPARENT WITH THIS
TREND...THE FIRST SIGNS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. WILL
STRESS THIS TO THE DAY SHIFT AS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE MAINLY SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OUT TO THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS MAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LL JET MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY...IN FACT...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ALL ALONG I-75. SOME
SMALL FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY ARISE HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TN. SO HAVE
ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAMS COVERING THE ROCKCASTLE...
PULASKI...AND WAYNE COUNTY AREAS.
SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THIS WEAKENED MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
AND THERE STANDS THE CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN CWA.
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CONTINUED
MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.
THIS WILL AT LEAST HINDER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE TODAY.
WITH ALL THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...KNOCKED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH MOS BEING A IN
THE MID TO LOW 70S AND WENT ABOVE MOS A BIT TO THE UPPER 70S. KEEP IN
MIND THAT IF...COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR
AND SOME CLEARING ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 80S...AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER DAY MAY ENSUE BY THIS EVENING IN EARNEST.
GETTING INTO THIS EVENING...THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT AND SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
CONVERGES OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS CONVECTION AND RENEWED SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BEGIN HERE AGAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TN...AND NORTHERN MS/AL. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEGINS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS...WILL
REINTRODUCE LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS INTO THE WEST BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE 00Z TO
06Z TONIGHT BEFORE THE GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MOVES EAST. WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS COMING
TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY
EXITS EAST KENTUCKY. THOUGH...THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER LOW STALLED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY SO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAY BECOME A DIURNALLY DRIVEN MECHANISM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG POLAR
VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVER OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A STRONG BLOCKING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WHERE IT BELONGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH CENTER WILL
BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE HARD PART OF THIS FORECAST IS TO TRY TO TIME ANY SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GENERATE ANY
MEASURABLE SHOWERS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE AND STRONG LOW RECEDE AND ALLOW A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MODEL ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE RESIDUAL
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY ACROSS
THE GULF COAST DURING THE PERIOD. USED TO MODEL BLEND BUT THEN
NUDGED THE FORECAST 25 PERCENT TOWARD THE 00 GMT ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z TO 01Z AND THEN FURTHER SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS ALLOWING FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST INCREASING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 25
KNOTS. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS CIGS AND VIS IMPROVE...BUT SHOWERS REMAIN
AROUND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS OF 0530Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL BE FRESHENING UP THE POP FORECAST IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF THE HOURS FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AND SEND OUT A NEW
ZFP THEN. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BAND OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND A QUICKER TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD DAWN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW ESPECIALLY INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALSO... INSTABILITY DECREASES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT... SOME STRONG STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.
THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST...THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CUT INTO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR VA COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES AND SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
THE LULL CONTINUES WITH THE STORMS. JKL AWAITS THE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST AND THEN A PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST RAP
AND HRRR MODELS. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE TORNADO WATCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY REAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TIMING AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD ONES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT IS LAID OUT TO THE EAST JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS PLACES EAST KENTUCKY WELL INTO TO THE
BROAD WARM SECTOR AND THUS RIPE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THIS IS HELPING STORMS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF
THE CWA...DUE TO THE COLD POOL FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO THE WEST AND
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION TAME THERE...FOR
NOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WHILE THE WINDS ARE RATHER VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SPREADING
WAVES OF ENERGY CLUSTERS OVER EAST KENTUCKY AS IT DOES SO. THE BROAD
CLOSED LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TUESDAY WHILE ONE LAST BATCH OF ENERGY RIDES THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING
THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EACH NEW CLUSTER WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE DEPENDING ON THE INSTABILITY LEFT
BEHIND BY EARLIER STORMS AND CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WAS WHAT SET UP THE STORMS FOR FAR EAST KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ABOUT THAT TIME...THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WORKING TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EAST
KENTUCKY LATER IN THE EVENING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE SET UP REMAINS INTACT. THE ACTUAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THESE LATER EVENTS WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON THE EARLIER
EVOLUTION SO IT BECOMES HARDER TO PIN POINT. DO EXPECT THIS OVERNIGHT
WAVE OF STORMS TO MOVE ON THROUGH TOWARDS DAWN AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ISOLATED TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO AND SPS. AFTER A MIDDAY LULL ON TUESDAY...LOW TOPPED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
CONTINUING POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...INCLUDING A SLIGHT TORNADO THREAT
DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MORE SUNSHINE THAT
MANAGES TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL PLAY INTO HOW STRONG THE
STORMS COULD BECOME. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER
THAT NIGHT AND SHOULD END THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO WIND
DOWN THE THUNDER CHANCES.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NUMBERS MAINLY TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THURSDAY...AND THEN ON INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY AS A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THE FLOW WILL BE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING
THOUGH.
HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. WILL
PIN POINT TIMES OF WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME
BEFORE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THROUGH THIS
TIME...THERE STANDS THE CHANCE OF A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM PASSING BY
ONE OF THE TAF SITES. A NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY THE LAST
6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FOR WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
942 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
.UPDATE...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AS ELEVATED OVER-RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUE...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASING AND PUSHING FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY A FEW SHOWERS
WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF SAINT
MARY PARISH AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISH UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WSW TO ENE STREAMING SHRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS LOWER
ACADIANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF LFT/ARA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THUS...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR S SITES WITH VFR
EXPECTED. NNW WINDS 6-8 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THEN INCREASE FROM THE NNE ~10-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 15Z THU.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE SPRAWLING CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAS NOW PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER
70S TO UPPER 60S. RADAR IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME
SHOWERS/SPRINKLE OVER THE COASTAL WATER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS JUST BEYOND THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR WITH THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...HOWEVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON IT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH SOME COMING ONSHORE IN IBERIA...ST.
MARY AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT
FINALLY DISSIPATES/MOVES EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THIS AREA REMAINS IN FAVORABLE
AREA OF THE JET AND IMPULSES RIDING ACROSS IN IT. OTHERWISE AREAS
INLAND LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO 45 TO 50
RANGE! TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADD SCEC TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF
WATERS.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 51 75 53 78 56 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 53 76 55 78 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 48 73 51 77 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
KLFT 52 73 55 76 56 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1050 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HANGING AROUND INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AS RNFL HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT...CLEARING FROM THE W
THU AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PORTSMOUTH AND ENVIRONS ARE ALREADY SEEING
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES EAST
HAS BEEN ERODING IN THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS RESILIENT SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE NOW AND SLOWLY
BEING PUSHED EAST. A STRONG LLJ AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND RAIN
TO SPREAD FURTHER INTO NH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MAINE LATER THIS
EVENING. HRRR AND NAM12 HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PROGRESSION.
INCLUDED HEAVIER WORDING FOR QPF AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT AS
INTENSITY INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT OVERNIGHT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH
MAY RESULT IN QUICK THIRD TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN A SHORT TIME.
OVERALL STILL EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.75" TO 1.30" THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP A INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
TONIGHT. IN SOME CASES THIS WILL HARDLY BE A CHANGE THANKS TO A
CHILLY DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE STILL RAINING IN THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER THE MIDCOAST AND LIGHTER QPF OVER NH.
THE DRY PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY SCOURS OUT MOISTURE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT EXPECT TO SEE THESE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND PEEKS OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS OCCURS WE COULD
SEE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH. WARM 850MB MB TEMPERATURES AND SW
WINDS WILL HELP MUCH OF NH AND SW MAINE REACH THE 60S AND PERHAPS
EVEN 70 OVER SOUTHERNMOST NH DESPITE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE OUTLOOK PERIOD THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION INITIALLY REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
EXIT THE REGION FRI WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS MAINLY IN THE MTNS AS A
WLY FLOW DEVELOPS. BY SAT THE L/WV TROF POSITION TO OUR WEST
AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW TO GRDLY GET CARVED OUT AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED WX INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BLO NORMAL.
4TH/5TH PERIODS STAYED CLOSEST TO GFS GUID WITH POPS AND TEMPS.
BEYONE THE 5TH PD STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUID WHICH AT THIS
POINT APPEARS REASONABLE OVERALL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR/MVFR TODAY WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON
IN NH AND TONIGHT IN MAINE AS SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND INTENSIFY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP BUT AREN`T FORECAST TO DROP
MUCH LOWER THAN IFR. SSW WINDS OF 10G20KT WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING HELPING TO USHER RAIN AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE
REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...PREDOMINATELY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD... WITH THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE LOWEST ACROSS THE MTNS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING AND INCLUDED PENOBSCOT BAY AS WELL AS WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
810 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HANGING AROUND INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. USED LATEST
RADAR TRENDS TO TWEAK POP ONCE MORE. THIS MAINLY CUTS BACK ACROSS
W CENTRAL ME WHERE PCPN IS STILL FIGHTING TO MOVE E AS HIGH PRES
DEPARTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PORTSMOUTH AND ENVIRONS ARE ALREADY SEEING
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES EAST
HAS BEEN ERODING IN THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS RESILIENT SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE NOW AND SLOWLY
BEING PUSHED EAST. A STRONG LLJ AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND RAIN
TO SPREAD FURTHER INTO NH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MAINE LATER THIS
EVENING. HRRR AND NAM12 HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PROGRESSION.
INCLUDED HEAVIER WORDING FOR QPF AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT AS
INTENSITY INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT OVERNIGHT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE BANDS OF CONVECTION WHICH
MAY RESULT IN QUICK THIRD TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN A SHORT TIME.
OVERALL STILL EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.75" TO 1.30" THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP A INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
TONIGHT. IN SOME CASES THIS WILL HARDLY BE A CHANGE THANKS TO A
CHILLY DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE STILL RAINING IN THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER THE MIDCOAST AND LIGHTER QPF OVER NH.
THE DRY PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY SCOURS OUT MOISTURE WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT EXPECT TO SEE THESE
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND PEEKS OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS OCCURS WE COULD
SEE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH. WARM 850MB MB TEMPERATURES AND SW
WINDS WILL HELP MUCH OF NH AND SW MAINE REACH THE 60S AND PERHAPS
EVEN 70 OVER SOUTHERNMOST NH DESPITE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVER THE OUTLOOK PERIOD THE MEAN L/WV TROF POSITION INITIALLY REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
EXIT THE REGION FRI WITH ONLY SCT SHWRS MAINLY IN THE MTNS AS A
WLY FLOW DEVELOPS. BY SAT THE L/WV TROF POSITION TO OUR WEST
AMPLIFIES AND ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW TO GRDLY GET CARVED OUT AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED WX INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BLO NORMAL.
4TH/5TH PERIODS STAYED CLOSEST TO GFS GUID WITH POPS AND TEMPS.
BEYONE THE 5TH PD STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND GUID WHICH AT THIS
POINT APPEARS REASONABLE OVERALL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR/MVFR TODAY WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON
IN NH AND TONIGHT IN MAINE AS SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND INTENSIFY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP BUT AREN`T FORECAST TO DROP
MUCH LOWER THAN IFR. SSW WINDS OF 10G20KT WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING HELPING TO USHER RAIN AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE
REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...PREDOMINATELY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD... WITH THE BEST CHC FOR
IFR ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE LOWEST ACROSS THE MTNS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING AND INCLUDED PENOBSCOT BAY AS WELL AS WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LOW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NEAR TERM TRAVEL HAZARDS...
BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND WEBCAMS CONFIRMING THAT
SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN /~1500
FT/ WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
TRAVEL HAZARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE IMPACTS WILL BE
COMPLETELY TIED TO PRECIPITATION RATES...AND WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
RETURNS ALREADY PULLING NORTH THROUGH MENOMINEE COUNTY...THIS
PROVIDED A PRETTY SHORT WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL 2-4"
IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO
DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...
BASED ON MORNING SPOTTER REPORTS AND AREA WEBCAMS...HAVE BOOSTED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AS PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING AS A BURST OF
SNOW FOR AREAS FROM MARQUETTE SOUTH AND WEST. DUAL POL VARIABLES
FROM THE KMQT-88D SUGGEST A GROWING SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER AT
MQT...AND DO EXPECT A PRETTY STEADY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS CHANGEOVER NOT REACHING
AREAS FROM ONTONAGON TO IRONWOOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BY WHICH
TIME THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION.
ISSUED A SPS TO HANDLE QUICK BURST OF SNOW...AND MAY DO SO ONCE
MORE FOR WESTERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES HERE. DID SLOW
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL JUST A TAD BASED ON MORNING RADAR
EVOLUTION...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...OVERALL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY 18Z...
BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) IN THE PROCESS OF
WORKING UP THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING
TO SOLID IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES. HOWEVER...SRN BACK
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA AND EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. BUT...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS (SUB 1K FEET) AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
REMAINING DOMINANT. LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
FORMING OVER SRN WISCONSIN/CHICAGO LOOKING TO ROTATE UP INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND LOOKING TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN ANTICIPATED) LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BUT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST GENERIC SHRADZ FOR THE TERMINAL SITES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE CIGS/VSBYS MAY
TRY TO NUDGE UP TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC IFR SIDE OF THINGS FOR NOW.
WINDS...NORTHEAST AND GUSTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ADAM
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1156 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NEAR TERM TRAVEL HAZARDS...
BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND WEBCAMS CONFIRMING THAT
SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN /~1500
FT/ WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
TRAVEL HAZARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE IMPACTS WILL BE
COMPLETELY TIED TO PRECIPITATION RATES...AND WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
RETURNS ALREADY PULLING NORTH THROUGH MENOMINEE COUNTY...THIS
PROVIDED A PRETTY SHORT WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL 2-4"
IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO
DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...
BASED ON MORNING SPOTTER REPORTS AND AREA WEBCAMS...HAVE BOOSTED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AS PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING AS A BURST OF
SNOW FOR AREAS FROM MARQUETTE SOUTH AND WEST. DUAL POL VARIABLES
FROM THE KMQT-88D SUGGEST A GROWING SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER AT
MQT...AND DO EXPECT A PRETTY STEADY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS CHANGEOVER NOT REACHING
AREAS FROM ONTONAGON TO IRONWOOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BY WHICH
TIME THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION.
ISSUED A SPS TO HANDLE QUICK BURST OF SNOW...AND MAY DO SO ONCE
MORE FOR WESTERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES HERE. DID SLOW
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL JUST A TAD BASED ON MORNING RADAR
EVOLUTION...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN LIFR AS RAIN MOVES
IN FM THE SE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT KIWD TODAY AN COULD RESTRICT VSBYS TO IFR.
UPSLOPE FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS RAIN AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS MOVE OVER COLDER LAKE SUPERIOR. ENE WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30
KNOTS AT KCMX THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1001 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATON ARRIVES...
BASED ON MORNING SPOTTER REPORTS AND AREA WEBCAMS...HAVE BOOSTED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AS PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING AS A BURST OF
SNOW FOR AREAS FROM MARQUETTE SOUTH AND WEST. DUAL POL VARIABLES
FROM THE KMQT-88D SUGGEST A GROWING SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER AT
MQT...AND DO EXPECT A PRETTY STEADY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS CHANGEOVER NOT REACHING
AREAS FROM ONTONAGON TO IRONWOOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BY WHICH
TIME THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION.
ISSUED A SPS TO HANDLE QUICK BURST OF SNOW...AND MAY DO SO ONCE
MORE FOR WESTERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES HERE. DID SLOW
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL JUST A TAD BASED ON MORNING RADAR
EVOLUTION...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN LIFR AS RAIN MOVES
IN FM THE SE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT KIWD TODAY AN COULD RESTRICT VSBYS TO IFR.
UPSLOPE FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS RAIN AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS MOVE OVER COLDER LAKE SUPERIOR. ENE WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30
KNOTS AT KCMX THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
TEMPS IF MODELS VERIFY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN LIFR AS RAIN MOVES
IN FM THE SE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT KIWD TODAY AN COULD RESTRICT VSBYS TO IFR.
UPSLOPE FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS RAIN AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS MOVE OVER COLDER LAKE SUPERIOR. ENE WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30
KNOTS AT KCMX THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO SAT AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
TEMPS IF MODELS VERIFY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CIGS LOWER TO LIFR AND REMAIN LIFR INTO TUE EVENING. SAW
HAS DECOUPLED SO PUT LLWS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO SAT AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
503 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES TO WRN HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...GUSTY EAST WINDS
PREVAILED AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND A LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NRN WI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS IN LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS IT ENCOUNTERS
DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 800 MB) TO THE NORTH AND EAST...PER 12Z APX
SOUNDING.
SOME PCPN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING BUT SINCE IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MAINLY SPRINKLES...ONLY CHANCE POPS
WERE INCLUDED. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO UPPER MI...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
TUE MORNING. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SSE TO NNW BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE TROWAL REGION
NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...PER MODELS 310-320 THETA-E LAYER.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH
RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH TUE. UPSLOPE NE FLOW
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN
TYPE OVER THE INTERIOR...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN THIRD TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...VERY LOW
SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY TO AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED ON
GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
TEMPS IF MODELS VERIFY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CIGS LOWER TO LIFR AND REMAIN LIFR INTO TUE EVENING. SAW
HAS DECOUPLED SO PUT LLWS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND A
STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY. ENE GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUE BUT SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THE 30 KNOTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES...THE WATCH WAS
RETAINED FOR THIS LOCATION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM WED INTO FRI AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
208 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES TO WRN HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...GUSTY EAST WINDS
PREVAILED AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND A LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NRN WI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS IN LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS IT ENCOUNTERS
DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 800 MB) TO THE NORTH AND EAST...PER 12Z APX
SOUNDING.
SOME PCPN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING BUT SINCE IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MAINLY SPRINKLES...ONLY CHANCE POPS
WERE INCLUDED. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO UPPER MI...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
TUE MORNING. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SSE TO NNW BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE TROWAL REGION
NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...PER MODELS 310-320 THETA-E LAYER.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH
RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH TUE. UPSLOPE NE FLOW
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN
TYPE OVER THE INTERIOR...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN THIRD TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...VERY LOW
SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY TO AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED ON
GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGEST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE U.P. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF A
BREAK ON THE PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE OVER THE EAST THIRD...BUT STILL WOULD
EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL. BETTER DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AFTER THAT...AND WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
AND BROADENS/WEAKENS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH...THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE POPS NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP...BUT PINNING THOSE DOWN AT THIS TIME IS TOO
DIFFICULT.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPPING IN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING (EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING MIX NEAR IRONWOOD).
THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AROUND THE LOW (REMAINING AROUND
2-4C AT 850MB) THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING
AS RAIN. THEN AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO
COOL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD LEAD TO A
TRANSITION TO TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX HEADING INTO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THE
1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0 HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SINCE IT WAS LARGELY DEALING WITH A NEAR SURFACE WARM
LAYER. DID PUT IN SOME FOG FOR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF MOIST AIR.
ELSEWHERE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE JUST A LOW STRATUS DECK. ALL IN
ALL...LOOKS TO BE A COOL/CLOUDY/SHOWERY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT POINT. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR MORE ZONAL
FLOW OR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIER PERIOD THAN SEEN THIS
WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE 12Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING SOME
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MONDAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CIGS LOWER TO LIFR AND REMAIN LIFR INTO TUE EVENING. SAW
HAS DECOUPLED SO PUT LLWS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND A
STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY. ENE GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUE BUT SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THE 30 KNOTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES...THE WATCH WAS
RETAINED FOR THIS LOCATION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM WED INTO FRI AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THESE
RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER
RIVERS WILL START TO RISE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES
BY THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF
HIGHER QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS THIS
WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ264>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...SRF/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
432 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING FOR THE TWIN PORTS
AND I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALIZED WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOW. HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW CAN
EXPECT 1-3" OF ACCUMULATION. SNOWFALL SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER EASTERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND
QUEBEC. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST HAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF NW MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA HAD CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THERE WAS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WHICH WAS
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA. THE BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN NE MINNESOTA.
THE CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS THE CURRENT MAIN BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN...AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT OTHER AREAS AS IT
MOVES WEST. IN THIS MAIN BAND OF MAXIMIZED OMEGA...SNOW IS
FALLING FROM ALOFT AND AT FALLING AS RAIN AT FIRST ALONG ITS
WESTERN LEADING EDGE. THEN THE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE
FALLING...AND ALLOWING THE PCPN TO SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE IS MAKING IT TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN PLENTY OF REPORTS THOUGH THAT THE SNOW IS EVENTUALLY
ACCUMULATING ON GRASS AND ROOFS AND SUCH...AND CREATING SLUSHY
ROADS. VISIBILITY IS ALSO LOW AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW
RATES. THIS BAND WILL BE SHIFTING INTO AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THAT HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WARMER THAN NW
WISCONSIN GOT TODAY DUE TO NW WISCONSIN BEING WET AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAINED DRY. THEREFORE...I
THINK IT WILL TAKE EXTRA TIME FOR THE PCPN TO SWITCH TO SNOW AND
FOR THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. IF THE SNOW LINGERS LONG ENOUGH AND/OR FALLS HEAVY
ENOUGH...ACCUMULATION COULD BE GREATER. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE BEEN
COVERING THIS SYSTEM WITH NOWCASTS DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING
LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT WE MIGHT NEED TO RECONSIDER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN
FORECAST.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL DEPICTING THE TIMING OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW...SO I LEANED ON THAT MODEL FOR MY HOURLY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT HUMIDITY IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER COULD
DRY UP FOR A TIME TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF PCPN...SO
PCPN COULD SWITCH FROM SNOW/RAIN TO DRIZZLE FOR A PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IT THEN APPEARS SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHY I HAVE BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST THE FORECAST AREA ALL THE WAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...SO I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
TIS THE SEASON...FOR ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKS THAT IS...AND THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA IS TAKING CENTER STAGE. MDLS
DISPLAY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT MID LVL FEATURE WILL MEANDER INTO
SRN MN BY WED MORNING...AND THEN SLIDE EAST TOWARDS NRN IL BY THUR
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A LARGE DEEP AND MOIST CIRCULATION WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS EXPRESSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GUARANTEE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER THE SKILL LEVEL FOR POPS IS RATHER LIMITED.
CHARACTERISTICALLY THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WOULD EXHIBIT HIGHER POPS
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION AND MIN POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THIS LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
TO BE MORE ALIGNED WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALOFT. WILL
USE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF THEME THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MDLS LIFT
SYSTEM EAST FRIDAY AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER ARRIVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER
INITIALLY IT WILL EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD SATURDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE NRN TIER OF ZONES. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MDT TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT FAIR WX MAY RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE MID LVL FLOW WHICH
ESTABLISHES RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS BLO LIMO
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THEN AIMING FOR NEAR SEASONAL VALUES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS AREA OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
OMEGA/DGZ CROSSING WISC ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING
WILL ADVECT INTO KDLH BY 19Z AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIAL PTYPE OF RASN SHOULD TRANSITION QUICKLY ONCE VERTICAL
MOTION INCREASES. OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HRS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MID LVL LOW MOVES INTO SERN MN AND SATURATION DEEPENS WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 41 36 44 / 100 80 70 60
INL 34 44 36 49 / 90 80 70 50
BRD 35 45 38 48 / 90 80 70 40
HYR 35 46 37 47 / 80 80 70 60
ASX 34 40 35 43 / 90 80 70 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER EASTERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND
QUEBEC. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST HAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF NW MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA HAD CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THERE WAS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WHICH WAS
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA. THE BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN NE MINNESOTA.
THE CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS THE CURRENT MAIN BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN...AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT OTHER AREAS AS IT
MOVES WEST. IN THIS MAIN BAND OF MAXIMIZED OMEGA...SNOW IS
FALLING FROM ALOFT AND AT FALLING AS RAIN AT FIRST ALONG ITS
WESTERN LEADING EDGE. THEN THE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE
FALLING...AND ALLOWING THE PCPN TO SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE IS MAKING IT TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN PLENTY OF REPORTS THOUGH THAT THE SNOW IS EVENTUALLY
ACCUMULATING ON GRASS AND ROOFS AND SUCH...AND CREATING SLUSHY
ROADS. VISIBILITY IS ALSO LOW AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW
RATES. THIS BAND WILL BE SHIFTING INTO AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THAT HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WARMER THAN NW
WISCONSIN GOT TODAY DUE TO NW WISCONSIN BEING WET AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAINED DRY. THEREFORE...I
THINK IT WILL TAKE EXTRA TIME FOR THE PCPN TO SWITCH TO SNOW AND
FOR THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. IF THE SNOW LINGERS LONG ENOUGH AND/OR FALLS HEAVY
ENOUGH...ACCUMULATION COULD BE GREATER. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE BEEN
COVERING THIS SYSTEM WITH NOWCASTS DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING
LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT WE MIGHT NEED TO RECONSIDER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN
FORECAST.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL DEPICTING THE TIMING OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW...SO I LEANED ON THAT MODEL FOR MY HOURLY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT HUMIDITY IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER COULD
DRY UP FOR A TIME TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF PCPN...SO
PCPN COULD SWITCH FROM SNOW/RAIN TO DRIZZLE FOR A PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IT THEN APPEARS SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHY I HAVE BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST THE FORECAST AREA ALL THE WAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...SO I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
TIS THE SEASON...FOR ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKS THAT IS...AND THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA IS TAKING CENTER STAGE. MDLS
DISPLAY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT MID LVL FEATURE WILL MEANDER INTO
SRN MN BY WED MORNING...AND THEN SLIDE EAST TOWARDS NRN IL BY THUR
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A LARGE DEEP AND MOIST CIRCULATION WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS EXPRESSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GUARANTEE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER THE SKILL LEVEL FOR POPS IS RATHER LIMITED.
CHARACTERISTICALLY THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WOULD EXHIBIT HIGHER POPS
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION AND MIN POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THIS LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
TO BE MORE ALIGNED WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALOFT. WILL
USE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF THEME THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MDLS LIFT
SYSTEM EAST FRIDAY AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER ARRIVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER
INITIALLY IT WILL EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD SATURDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE NRN TIER OF ZONES. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MDT TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT FAIR WX MAY RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE MID LVL FLOW WHICH
ESTABLISHES RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS BLO LIMO
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THEN AIMING FOR NEAR SEASONAL VALUES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS AREA OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
OMEGA/DGZ CROSSING WISC ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING
WILL ADVECT INTO KDLH BY 19Z AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIAL PTYPE OF RASN SHOULD TRANSITION QUICKLY ONCE VERTICAL
MOTION INCREASES. OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HRS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MID LVL LOW MOVES INTO SERN MN AND SATURATION DEEPENS WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 41 36 44 / 90 80 70 60
INL 34 44 36 49 / 90 80 70 50
BRD 35 45 38 48 / 80 80 70 40
HYR 35 46 37 47 / 70 80 70 60
ASX 34 40 35 43 / 70 80 70 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1229 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES AFTER PREVIOUS CHANGES TO CHASE THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND TYPE HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT
TONIGHT. WHILE CLOQUET AND WEST DULUTH HAVE BEEN GETTING SNOW,
THEN RAIN, THEN SLEET, THEN SNOW. HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE HAD
SLEET, BUT HAVEN`T HAD ANY PRECIPITATION FOR 4 HOURS. BUT SLEETING
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE NWS AT ADOLPH. VERY TIGHT GRADIENT. PCPN AREA IS
JUST ALONG OR NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 IN MN AND VERY GENERALLY
ALONG 2 IN WI. NORTH OF THE PCPN DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS.
SOUTH..THEY ARE IN THE 30S. SO THE DRY AIR IS WINNING FOR NOW.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO TUESDAY ATTM,..BUT INTERESTING TO SEE
BOTH THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTHLAND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT SO
WILL LEAVE POPS AS ARE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 443 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
UPDATED TO ADD SLEET AS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE DULUTH AREA FOR
PAST HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AT 315PM/2015Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS HAD CLOUDY
SKIES DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED EAST OF
HUDSON BAY. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA HAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHLAND
HAD GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS. THE WINDS WERE PARTICULARLY STRONG
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AREA. THE TWIN
PORTS AREA WAS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 MPH. THE BONG AND BLATNIK BRIDGES BETWEEN DULUTH AND
SUPERIOR WERE SEEING EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE
ARROWHEAD AND IRON RANGE AREAS WERE PRIMARILY DRY DUE TO DRIER AIR
FROM CANADA FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THERE HAD REPORTS THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED
TREES ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE THE WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED PCPN.
LET US BEGIN WITH THE WINDS. IT APPEARS THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE STRONGER WINDS AWAY FROM DULUTH AND
TO THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW WISCONSIN. WE MIGHT NEED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT IF
IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THAT TIME.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO
FIZZLE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THAT A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PCPN COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING DUE TO SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE
HRRR/WRF/NAM ARE SHOWING THIS BANDS SOMEWHERE NEAR...OVER...OR
SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. ALSO...MORE DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO CHANCES OF PCPN WILL DECREASE ACROSS
THE NW FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
COOL INTO THIS EVENING...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR AT LEAST MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND BORDER AREAS
OF NW WISCONSIN. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND CLOQUET AREAS THIS EVENING IF THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL QUICKLY ENOUGH BEFORE THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING...SO I DID NOT FORECAST ANY ICE ACCUMULATION AND HELD
OFF ON ANOTHER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE SNOW
THAT WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL LIKELY MELT. HOWEVER...IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL MORE THAN THOUGHT...THEN THERE COULD
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. I FORECASTED ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE TWIN PORTS / CLOQUET / MOOSE LAKES
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE MID 30S MUCH LONGER THAN THE TWIN PORTS AREA...WHERE IT
WILL COOL TO THE LOW 30S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE LOBE CYCLONICALLY INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OCCUR NEAR THE 85H LEVEL AND WORKS
ITS WAY FROM THE SRN CWA INTO THE CTRL CWA AS THE DAY UNFOLDS.
UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL HAVE PTYPE ISSUES AS THE USUAL CAST OF
CHARACTERS...VERTICAL MOTION...ICE CRYSTAL INITIATION OR NOT...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. WILL GO AHEAD AND GIVE IT THE BEST SHOT AND
PUSH AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY ACROSS NW WISC ZONES INTO
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 12Z/18Z. MAY SEE A FEW INCHES IN THAT TIME
HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR AND ABOVE FREEZING ENOUGH MELTING AND
COMPACTION MAY OCCUR TO REDUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT ARE DIFFICULT
BEYOND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A
BLOCKED MID LVL FLOW AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...IF NOT LONGER. THE
SFC LOW WILL CRAWL SLOWLY EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY.
THE DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN
THE AREA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE OCCASIONAL IN
NATURE. MDL CONSENSUS QPF SUGGESTS AREAL AVERAGES OF ABOUT .25 TO
.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SPRING BLOCKS
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR MAINTAINING THEIR INTEGRITY...LATEST NWP
SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL BE
EJECTED EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AN AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OF SNOW...RAIN OR SLEET...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS OF
KDLH...KHIB AND KINL WILL BE MAINLY VFR. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GO
BACK DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR LATER TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 12Z TO 18Z AS
MORE ROBUST LIFT AND MOISTURE COME BACK TO TO THE REGION FOR MORE
SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 40 35 43 / 90 80 60 50
INL 34 45 37 45 / 80 80 60 50
BRD 35 44 37 46 / 80 80 60 40
HYR 34 45 36 46 / 90 80 60 60
ASX 34 40 35 43 / 90 80 60 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CLC/MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1054 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE AT 1049 PM...
PRIMARILY TO BRUSH UP TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY/WIND TRENDS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO LOWER THE WINDS.
OVERALL IT APPEARS AREAS E OF HWY 281 WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AREAS TO THE W WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS TOO
HAS BEEN REFLECTED BETTER IN THE FCST USING THE RAP 13KM CLOUD
COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
DECREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT DECREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH AND MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELD TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON WINDS...ALONG
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS. THE PATTERN ALOFT
CONTINUED TO FEATURE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...AND A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SITUATED IN IOWA. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...CLOUDY...WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR CWA EXCEPT
FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG THRU LATE AFTN
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH WILL INHIBIT
THE FORMATION OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE MID 30S FOR
LOWS.
A JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS AND
BRINGING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SPRINKLES FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THRU.
ON THURSDAY...BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN BUT WE TREND
TOWARD IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF MAY. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH
WEAKER THAN TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY
BE LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND
RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL REPRIEVE
FROM THE WINDY CONDITIONS. HAVE TARGETED HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES...AND VERY END OF THE PERIOD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/ FINALLY CLEARING THE CWA TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY EVENING HOURS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AS THE TROUGH SLIDES FURTHER AWAY AND RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WEST COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY...AND KEPT THINGS DRY.
AT THE SFC...WINDS START THE PERIOD OUT OF THE NW...PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AND TAPERING OFF IN
SPEED. STILL A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS THOSE WINDS TAPER OFF...AND MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUING
TO SHOW OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION GOING IN THE HWO. FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING A NICE
WARM UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...AND TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S.
LOOKING AT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS A MAIN PLAYER IN
THE PATTERN IMPACTING THE CWA...BUT WITH TIME THE RIDGING
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT REMAINING THAT WAY IS NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA. LIFT VIA AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WRN CANADA BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WRN CONUS RIDGE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT MUCH OF THE MODEL SUPPORT
KEEPS IT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS MODELS SHOW SFC LOW PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST
NEAR THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL KEEP SC NEB COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S/MID
70S...VS NC KS WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY SUNDAY COULD
CLIMB UP NEAR 80. JUST GOING TO DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THAT FRONT
SETS UP.
AS WE GET INTO MON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND BY MONDAY
NIGHT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STARTING TO BUILD IN...AS THE
WEST COAST SYSTEM IS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH. SOME QUESTION AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EAST...WILL IT DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
DESERT SW/REMAIN A CLOSED SYSTEM LIKE THE GFS SUGGESTS...OR REMAIN
OPEN LONGER...BEFORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES LIKE THE ECMWF. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT.
COULD SEE SOME LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECT THE AREA TUES
NIGHT/WED...AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND...SHOWING HIGHS INCREASING INTO
THE MID 70S/MID 80S RANGE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS 04-18Z...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE TAF
PERIOD.
A BROKEN CEILING IN THE 4000-7000FT AGL RANGE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION AS OF 23Z...BUT THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND A
RESULTANT DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW THIS CEILING TO DROP TO AROUND 2000FT AGL LATER TONIGHT...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A CEILING NEAR 4000FT AGL TO START THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL 04-18Z. INCREASING
DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT
AND MIXING SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WITH BASES NEAR 4000FT AGL 18Z ONWARD. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT 13-19KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 26KTS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS A NEGATIVE
TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A DOWN STREAM
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY NWWD INTO THE HUDSON BAY
OF CANADA. A STRONG JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NRN CALIFORNIA...TO
CENTRAL TX...CURVING NE INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
WITHIN THIS FEATURE...A 90+KT JET MAX EXTENDED FROM SERN OK INTO FAR
NERN ARKANSAS. WV IMAGERY AS OF MIDDAY HAS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NERN NEBRASKA A COLD FRONT EXTENDED EAST SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 58 MPH AT
THEDFORD AND NORTH PLATTE. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
NEDOR CAMS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT
SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS BROWN AND KEYA PAHA COUNTIES. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST INTO THE THESE AREAS.
WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA SO THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL HAZARDS TO CONTENT WITH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS...RAIN AND SNOW.
THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY INCREASING 850 MB WINDS OVERNIGHT TO 60
KTS OVER SW NEB. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR DAYTIME
MIXING AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS. THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. SO FAR TODAY THE SHOWERS HAVE HELP TO
LIMIT THE MIXING AND EXPECT THE NEXT DEFORMATION BAND TO DEVELOP AND
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND LIMIT MIXING THE VERY STRONG
WINDS TO THE SFC.
NOW PRECIP IS AN ISSUE. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE SPREADING INTO
PORTIONS OF NW NEB EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NAM/EC/GEM...HOWEVER THE GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS IS CRITICAL AS LIKE LAST NIGHT...NW NEB
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR RETURN FOR SNOW. MODELS BRING MORE OF THE
COLD AIR INTO CHERRY COUNTY...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE LOW IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE...AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN AND CHERRY
AS THE SNOW SHOULD PILE UP TO A FEW INCHES...AND CANNOT RULE OUT
AROUND 6 NEAR THE BORDER.
TOMORROW TEMPS WARM A LITTLE IN THE MORNING AND A CHANGE TO ALL
LIQUID IS EXPECTED. MODELS BRING MORE DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH
WRAPS ESPECIALLY INTO SW NEB. DID LOWER POPS AND COULD EASILY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEB
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY...CONVERTING THE WINTER WX TO A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END. THE BIG CONCERN HERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA IF WE SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER MIXING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING INTO THE 20S. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCIES BTW THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF H85
TEMPS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BEING 2 TO 4C COOLER COMPARED TO
THE NAM SOLN. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...DECIDED TO BLEND THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LED TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN
THE WEST...TO 35 IN THE EAST. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE LATEST
MODELS PUSH A NICE PLUME OF DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
ABOVE 6000 FT AGL...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR PCPN ANYMORE AND
HAVE ELIMINATED IT FROM THE FCST FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MINNESOTA. A NICE VORT
LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AND WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING. ATTM...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LEVEL AND LOW COND
PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE WEDS AFTN/EVE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FACILITATE GOOD MIXING. WITH H85
WINDS AROUND 35 KTS WEDS AFTN...ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAY FACILITATE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDS EVENING. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
AND WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
FRIDAY TO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM...BEING ABSORBED BY A QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S. MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL FRONTO BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. ENHANCED LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
NRN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME
LOW POPS INTO THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
MVFR IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS ANDLOCAL IFR/LIFR IN SNOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TUESDAY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WHEN ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR TUESDAY
EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW 3000 FEET AGL.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT VFR COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004-005-
007-009-010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ006-008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST HAS PUSHED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND RUC RH PROFILES. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL RAINBAND IS
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
BROAD DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND MIDWEST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY HAVE AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY
TODAY BEFORE THE WET WEATHER ARRIVES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL RAIN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SUNSHINE
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL
A BIT COOL FOR LATE APRIL DUE MARINE MODIFIED AIR WORKING IN ON
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE
INFLUENCE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA
INTO THE SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EDT TUESDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...700-500MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
MORNING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES SLOWLY EAST...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO VERMONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT
STILL SHAPING UP TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL RAIN BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING OCCLUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
FINALLY SPREAD STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. THIS COUPLED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALL SUPPORT
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AFFECTING PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY AS OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKES ITS EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WHILE TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH POPS
PREFERRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS MILDER WITH HIGHS AROUND
60. A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT
EXPECTED TILL LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...LOOKING AT 1.25-1.5" ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT AND FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE AMOUNTS LOWER DUE SOME SHADOWING.
HYDROLOGICALLY...RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR BASE LEVELS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AUSABLE FORKS AND OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND
IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST...ALL RIVERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS THE REGION WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. VARIABLY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY VFR
CEILING HEIGHTS...THOUGH OCCASIONALLY MVFR. WINDS ARE STRONG OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PRECIPITATION...WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN.
00Z FRI THRU SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1251 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST HAS PUSHED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND RUC RH PROFILES. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL RAINBAND IS
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
BROAD DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND MIDWEST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY HAVE AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY
TODAY BEFORE THE WET WEATHER ARRIVES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL RAIN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SUNSHINE WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL
A BIT COOL FOR LATE APRIL DUE MARINE MODIFIED AIR WORKING IN ON
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE
INFLUENCE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA
INTO THE SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EDT TUESDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...700-500MB
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MORNING WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO VERMONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND WE
WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT STILL
SHAPING UP TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING OCCLUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY SPREAD
STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BEST FORCING AND
LIFT WILL OCCUR. THIS COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALL SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AFFECTING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY AS OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKES ITS EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WHILE TRAILING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH POPS
PREFERRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS MILDER WITH HIGHS AROUND
60. A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT
EXPECTED TILL LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...LOOKING AT 1.25-1.5" ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE AMOUNTS LOWER DUE SOME SHADOWING.
HYDROLOGICALLY...RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR BASE LEVELS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AUSABLE FORKS AND OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND
IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS CURRENT EXPECATATIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST...ALL RIVERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS THE REGION WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS IN-BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST AND WEST TODAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO KRUT/KMPV EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS ALL SITES BEING VFR UNDER MID CLOUDS BY MID-DAY AS
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL WITH ANY SUNSHINE INCREASING MIXING AND EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS
OF 20-30KTS ACROSS THE REGION. LATE TODAY MID CLOUDS THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR THROUGH 12Z EXCEPT FOR
KRUT AND KMPV WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1053 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM
OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1053 AM EDT...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH E-SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN ALSO DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE. CURRENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAIN IS STARTING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
SOUTHERN TIER WEST OF BGM IN NEW YORK...AND JUST ABOUT ENTERING
NORTHEAST PA ACROSS BRADFORD/LUZERNE COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
LIGHT TODAY...AS LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE TIME FOR COMPLETE SATURATION
TO OCCUR. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
DEVELOPING RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONE...AS COOLING WILL TAKE
PLACE ONCE RAIN COMMENCES. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO
TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. MAX GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
TOWARDS THIS EVENING...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES...AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LIFT
MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/LIFT IS EXPECTED TO RE-
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY. THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
WRAPS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD APPEARS TO BE EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN 60-70 KNOT JET BETWEEN 900-850MB RIPS UP
THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAIN (WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE).
THIS SAME JET COULD CAUSE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS, AND WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING THE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT, THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET BELOW 850MB MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY WIND GUSTS IN
SE FLOW PER LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH ALSO
INDICATES THESE EVENTS ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG
CYCLONES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AND SHARPER 500H TROFS THAN WE ARE
FORECASTING.
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN FA, AND 2.00 TO 2.70 INCHES OVER NERN PA.
THIS SOAKING RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED GIVEN THE RECENT DRY SPELL.
THE QPF WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES, BUT THE DURATION MAY BE
STRETCHED OUT ENOUGH TO AVOID SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON
WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE, AS WE STILL HAVE 24 TO 30 HOURS BEFORE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE, AND TIME TO ASSESS THE RIVER
RESPONSE. ALSO...THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE EVENT MAY PRODUCE LESS
QPF THAN ANTICIPATED AS THE EASTWARD RAIN EXTENT IS RUNNING BEHIND
THE PROGS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER REGION WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT MAY BRIEFLY OPEN UP ONLY TO
RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST BY GETTING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PLAINS. WAVES WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW...INCLUDING
A LARGER JOINT SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING THROUGH
SATURDAY...THUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THEN. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
KNOCK DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THAT WAVE...CORE OF COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...SO THOUGH A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE AT TIMES...OVERALL NOT FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WE WILL STILL HAVE
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS SMALLER WAVES AND
THEN A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW ITSELF BREAK OFF AND HEAD TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LRG CLSD LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EWRD FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND
PUSH RAIN INTO THE REGION. HIPRES RDGG DOWN THE EST CST WILL KEEP
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDS THRU AT LEAST MID MRNG BEFORE THE RAIN
BEGINS. THEN...SLOWLY LWRG CONDS TO MVFR LATE IN THE AFTN THRU THE
END OF THE PD DUE TO VSBYS AND LWR CIGS. HILLTOP STATIONS ITH AND
BGM COULD SEE OCNL IFR CIGS AFT 06Z. TGT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
TO THE EAST AND THE MIDWEST LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SE WINDS TODAY
AND CNTG THRU THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
WED AND THU...MVFR AND MAYBE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
FRI/SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST HAS PUSHED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RUC RH PROFILES.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. BROAD DEEP- LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND MIDWEST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY HAVE AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY
TODAY BEFORE THE WET WEATHER ARRIVES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL RAIN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SUNSHINE WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL
A BIT COOL FOR LATE APRIL DUE MARINE MODIFIED AIR WORKING IN ON
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE
INFLUENCE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA
INTO THE SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EDT TUESDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...700-500MB
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MORNING WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO VERMONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND WE
WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT STILL
SHAPING UP TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING OCCLUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY SPREAD
STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BEST FORCING AND
LIFT WILL OCCUR. THIS COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALL SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AFFECTING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY AS OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKES ITS EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WHILE TRAILING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH POPS
PREFERRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS MILDER WITH HIGHS AROUND
60. A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT
EXPECTED TILL LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...LOOKING AT 1.25-1.5" ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE AMOUNTS LOWER DUE SOME SHADOWING.
HYDROLOGICALLY...RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR BASE LEVELS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AUSABLE FORKS AND OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND
IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS CURRENT EXPECATATIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST...ALL RIVERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS THE REGION WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS IN-BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST AND WEST TODAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO KRUT/KMPV EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS ALL SITES BEING VFR UNDER MID CLOUDS BY MID-DAY AS
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL WITH ANY SUNSHINE INCREASING MIXING AND EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS
OF 20-30KTS ACROSS THE REGION. LATE TODAY MID CLOUDS THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR THROUGH 12Z EXCEPT FOR
KRUT AND KMPV WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...RADAR SHOWS A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS
DEVELOPED TONIGHT OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE TO SPEAK OF ON RADAR TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE HRRR SUGGESTS WE WILL SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT...AS SUPPORTED BY THE QUIET REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND REMAIN AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW THAT BROUGHT US A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS...ANOTHER
STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED UP
POPS IN THE 09-12Z RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS NEAR
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WELL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OF TEXAS. THIS WHOLE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO TRACK EAST MAINTAINING SW FLOW THROUGH THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
MAKE IT OFF SHORE BY EARLY FRI...IT WILL RUN UP AGAINST ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND WILL REMAIN JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
AREA WILL BE IN VERY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THURS.
THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 1.8 INCHES IN STRONG S-SW FLOW
THROUGH THURS MORNING. SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PCP FOR THE
DIRECT COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFTS EAST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AIRMASS WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE AS TEMPS
WARM UP A BIT THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE
SLOWED BY CLOUD COVER SO INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE. THIS AXIS OF
GREATEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY THURS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SW TO W AS COLD FRONT MARCHES EAST
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP DOWN CLOSE TO A
HALF INCH IN DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BUT WITH FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO FRONT ALOFT AND
MID TO UPPER LOW LIFTING MORE NORTH THAN EAST THROUGH THURS NIGHT
INTO FRI...EXPECT A SLOW DOWN OF COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CHC
OF STRONGER STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THURS AND EXPECTING MORE
IN THE WAY OF ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER THURS AS DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE OFF SHORE BY THURS EVE. OVERALL LOOKS
LIKE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF BY THURS AFTN INLAND WITH SOME
CLEARING AND BY EVENING ALONG THE COAST AS WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN
DRY AIR THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE STALLED FRONT OFF SHORE MAY BUCKLE A BIT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG IT ON FRIDAY AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE
AROUND MID TO UPPER TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LOW END CHC OF PRECIP FOR MAINLY COASTAL AREAS ON FRI AND EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE LINED UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY END OF
PERIOD...SAT MORNING. THEREFORE WILL NOT RULE OUT CLOUDS AND LOW
END CHC OF SHWRS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING
IN PLACE BUT A TRANSITION TO MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS EXPECTED. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA SAT WITH
STALLED FRONT LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO SUN BUT WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE OR TWO COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE
SAT...MOVING OFF THE GA/SC COAST SAT NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
PUSH THE STALLED FRONT OUT TO SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS IN THE AREA MON INTO TUE. FRONT
WILL PASS DRY AS IT LACKS DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
QUITE WEAK. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EXPANDING
NORTH WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK NORTH TUE NIGHT.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO SAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SUNSHINE ON SUN
WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. SIMILAR TEMPERATES
ARE EXPECTED MON/TUE DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CONVECTION HAS WORKED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER PRETTY GOOD...AND OTHER
THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN IFR STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO COVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY FLO AND LBT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOWARD MORNING IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. THE NAM
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING BACK DEEP MOISTURE...WHERE THE GFS
DELAYS IT AND IS DRIER IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO BE
ON THE INCREASE AFTER 10Z...PEAKING OUT AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN
WANING IN THE MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE WATERS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. 4
TO 6 FT SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT BY 12Z
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BE UP AROUND 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS. THE WINDS WILL
VEER ON THURS BECOMING SW THROUGH LATE AFTN AND WESTERLY BY
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE WINDS VEER AROUND
AND LIGHTEN BEHIND FRONT BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE...SEAS WILL
LOWER IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT WILL REMAIN HIGHER OFF SHORE A
LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH FRI AFTN WITH MORE OF A SW FLOW BY FRI
AFTN ONCE AGAIN AS COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFF SHORE. SEAS 4 TO
7 FT THU WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT THU NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FRI DROPPING FROM 2 TO 4 FT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS SAT WILL
MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE SUN. WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
PERIOD KEEPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...BJR
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. FOLLOWED CLOSELY
TO THE 04 UTC HRRR FOR POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BASED UPON THE SUPERIOR VERIFICATION OF THE HRRR
THROUGHOUT THIS STORM. PREDOMINATELY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEST...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 36-38 F RANGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
CONTINUING TO SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN MAINLY
RAIN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CONTINUING TO SEE LIGHT SNOW WEST AND A
MIX CENTRAL. MAIN CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO INCREASE TEMPS EAST
AND KEEP A MIX OF PRECIP THERE LONGER. AREA OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
REFLECTIVITIES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH A SLOW
EXPANSION OF WEAK REFLECTIVITIES TOWARD THE UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FARTHER NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIP TYPE AND TEMPS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. REFLECTIVITIES HAVE DIMINISHED IN GENERAL...BUT
CONTINUE TO SEE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FARTHER EAST...INCLUDING JAMESTOWN...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES WITH
RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS AT BEST IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...BAND
OF PRECIP HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN ND WITH KISN
RECENTLY REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND KDIK REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
THE LAST OB. RUC/HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AREAS ACROSS THE EAST EXPECTED TO FILL IN
THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...MODELS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH DRYER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE RAIN/SNOW DEMARCATION TONIGHT. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S MANY AREAS THERE IS A FINE LINE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW
FROM HARVEY AND DENHOFF TO JAMESTOWN. SOUTH CENTRAL...AROUND
BISMARCK/MANDAN TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE WEST IT WAS COOL ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE MID 30S BY EARLY EVENING SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MODELS
FORECAST ENOUGH QPF FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY DRYING AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN END TOP
THE PRECIPITATION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AGAIN. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WEST TO THE LOWER 40S
CENTRAL. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNT NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AN ACTIVE AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY
ONCE THE LOW LIFTS OUT...THEN QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
DRY AIR WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT ENDING MOST IF
NOT ALL PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES/RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST..ALLOWING FOR ONE
OF ITS SPIRAL ARMS OF MOISTURE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ONCE AGAIN
MOVES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE MINIMAL SO ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE
MINIMAL...WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST...SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
FRIDAY...EACH GENERATING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW (DEPENDING ON THE
THERMAL PROFILE AND SFC TEMPERATURES).
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE STILL EXISTS LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY. THE 12Z ECMWF DROPS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH/SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS
FEATURE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. BOTH MAINTAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...RAIN AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END AND STRATUS LIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
734 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY
THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST
OVERNIGHT. DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KEYSTONE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS EXTENSIVE BREAK IN PCPN ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTN. PLUME OF MDT TO HVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN
LANCASTER COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH COVERAGE
LIKELY EXPANDING WESTWARD AND CELLS LIFT NWD FROM MD.
LATER THIS EVENING EXPECT SHOWER TO REDEVELOP OVER WRN COUNTIES
PRIOR TO 00Z THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS
COLD FRONT IS PUSHED EAST BY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTER.
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BUT CONTINUE TO
SHOWS AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTING/MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PVS DISC...
RICH GOMEX MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING 1-1.5+ INCHES
OR +2-3SD ABOVE THE MEAN WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT
VIA STG DEEP LYR SLY FLOW ON THE EASTSIDE OF LARGE SLOW-MOVG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACRS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS PD. BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THROUGH TODAY...AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ENHANCED BY EMBEDDED/ELEVATED CONVECTION AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD FROM NORTH CAROLINA. THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR-SURFACE OR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION AND ENHANCED LLVL CONVERGENCE INVOF TRIPLE PT LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE ACROSS SCENT AND SERN PA. MODEL QPFS HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING AT LEAST 2-3
INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL.
THESE AMTS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AREAL/SMALL STREAM AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ISOLATED 1"+ SHORT DURATION TOTALS.
WPC EXPANDED THE EXCESSIVE RAFL OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN RECENT
PERFORMANCE AND WIDE SPREAD IN THE DETAILS...BUT WITH SUCH A
FAVORABLE PATTERN WITH SUPPORTING KEY INGREDIENTS AND NORTH-SOUTH
TRAINING STARTING TO SHOW ITS HAND WOULD STILL LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER END AMTS. PLACEMENT OF FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD
WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINS FILLING IN ACRS NC NWD THRU VA
AND MD.
WHILE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN TERMS OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS...THERE REMAINS A RELATIVELY LOWER
THREAT FOR A FEW STG TO SVR TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE. THIS AREA IS JUST NORTH OF THE DAY 1
SPC SLGT RISK LINE. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST COMBO OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND STG FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED STORMS/BANDS WITH SOME ROTATING CELLS
POSSIBLE GIVEN VEERING IN THE LOWEST FEW KM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED H5 LOW LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY ON DAY 2. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH LGT AMTS IN MUCH DRIER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR RAINY CONDITIONS THIS MIDWEEK WILL SLIDE
NE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY FRI INTO SAT...BUT BROAD TROUGH
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT OVER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WLL KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER PA...ESP NW HALF...AS
WEAK WAVES SLIDING THROUGH MAIN FLOW COMBINED WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO COOL AIR ALOFT TO KEEP MENTION OF SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BEST PROB FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD /BUT MAINLY LIGHT/ SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY AS A STRONGER
WAVE/CLIPPER PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON FRI FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STIFFER WIND SAT NIGHT INTO
MON.
ONCE THE CLIPPER SLIDES THROUGH...A BROAD RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S.
WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE SETTLED
WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT-WED WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODIFYING
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEXT MIDWEEK COULD AGAIN BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG WITH A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SRLY FLOW INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN PLACE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH ON AND
OFF OR SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TURNING SFC WINDS TO THE
SW AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO AN END. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
.THU...IMPROVING CONDS AFTER AM LOW CIGS/RAIN.
.FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
.SAT-SUN...SCT SHRA POSS W/ CFROPA.
.MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE
WATCH AREA. OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR
ACROSS LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS LKLY FOLLOWING PERSISTENT OVERRUNNING
WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
CERTAINLY ELEVATED WITH AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING LKLY TO
OCCUR. THE PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE/LOCALIZED AMOUNTS.
CONCERNING FCST POINTS...THE LOWER MAIN STEM SUSQ TRIBS AND
JUNIATA BASIN POINTS ARE MOST LKLY TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGES...AND
DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING FLW`S. THE CRESTS WILL BE
TIED TO QPF WITH PREVIOUS BASE FLOWS AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035-036-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1257 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTION IMPACTING AIRPORTS.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING/IMPACTS...AND REMOVED
TS MENTION FROM CKV TAF AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM BNA
EASTWARD. TSRA LOOKS TO AFFECT BNA/CSV BETWEEN 22/23Z THROUGH
02/03Z...WITH ADDITIONAL -SHRA EXPECTED AT CSV AFTER 02Z.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER -SHRA/-TSRA...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM 998 MBAR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER FAR
EASTERN IOWA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THEN ON DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO A LOW
THAT JUST FORMED IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP IN SPEED NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS
NORTHWARD TOWARD CYCLONE CENTER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AT MID-DAY. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO MISSISSPPI SHORTLY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 4 PM. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
025>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ON THE DECREASE CURRENTLY. BY 09Z...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE BUT CIGS SHOULD NOT BE TOO LOW THROUGH 12Z. DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECHARGE ONCE AGAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 18Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AND MAYBE EVEN SEVERE. SOME SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND 00Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MID
TN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
OHX VWP IS NOW SHOWING SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD WITH TIME IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE DRIER AIR IS ON THE WAY. THIS IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A CONTINUING DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS GRADUALLY WITH
TIME.
OTW...STILL NO IMMEDIATE THREAT ACROSS THE TOR WATCH AREA.
ACTIVITY OVER NRN AL IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING ANY
STRENGTH. STILL...A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO CANCEL THE WATCH SO WILL
LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.
FOR THE UPDATE...AGAIN WILL LOWER POPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
COVERAGE OVER THE MID STATE HAS DECREASED SOME AND IS MORE BROKEN
IN NATURE NOW. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE ALTHOUGH 850 MB WIND IS STILL REASONABLY
STRONG. STILL HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP HAS NOT MADE
MUCH OF AN ADVANCEMENT EASTWARD YET.
FURTHER EAST...CURRENTLY THE TOR WATCH AREA IS NOT UNDER AN
IMMEDIATE THREAT. HOWEVER...WE DO SEE SOME STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NW AL AT THIS TIME AND HELICITY VALUES OVER THE WATCH AREA
REMAIN ELEVATED. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING
FOR NOW. MAY BEGIN TO TAPER POPS ACROSS OUR WEST IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRENDS. OTW...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CSV AREA. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE CSV AND BNA AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH STRONG OR
SEVERE LIMITS NEAR CSV BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
09Z FOR CSV WITH A BREAK UNTIL 18Z ON TUESDAY WHEN TSTMS MAY FIRE
UP AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MARCHING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU. LAPS STILL SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF AMPLIFIED
HELICITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HELICITY STRENGTH IS ON
THE DOWN SLIDE. TOR WATCH NUMBER 111 WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
FOR NOW FOR THOSE 6 COUNTIES IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
OTW...BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM
CLARKSVILLE SW THROUGH LOBELVILLE. NO EASTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED
AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED.
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR WINNING OUT LATER
TONIGHT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE AN EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...PERHAPS A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD
STILL DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
FOR THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST LAPS DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS WHERE THE TOR WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CAPE
VALUES...SHOWALTERS ALL IN SUPPORT OF THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM
DICKSON COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH GILES COUNTY WITH AGAIN...THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
WE DO SEE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BACK
ACROSS WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DEGREE OF INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THUS...IT MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME DEVELOPING INTO SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THE IDEA OF NO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST CONVECTION.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS COULD CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
AS FOR THE FLOOD THREAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL EXISTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS UPPER LOW
LAGGING AND SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON THE NOSE OF A 115-KT UPPER JET HAS LED TO AMPLE PRECIP
ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS LED TO 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-40...WHERE RESIDUAL FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN AND WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ISSUE THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOON.
MORE INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING CONVECTION DROPPED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE POINTS NORTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE COLD POOL REGION...AND POINTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE. THIS BOUNDARY
EVEN CURLS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH
SFC CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SPC ISSUED A
PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 9PM. ANYTHING CLOSEST TO THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH MEANS A TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOES ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHERN
MS ALREADY...MOVING NE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. FYI...WE WILL ADD GRUNDY COUNTY TO THE WATCH AS WELL.
ALSO...NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAIL WILL BE THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
STORMS IN THE COLD POOL.
SUPERCELLS OVER MS SHOULD COAGULATE INTO A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN...AND POPS COULD
TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
AROUND 60.
ON TUESDAY...THE SFC LOW SHOULD ROTATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. WOULD THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD EASILY BE GENERATED...THIS TIME WITH MORE SHEAR ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW GETTING CLOSER. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE BEST THREAT. EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY-
SATURDAY IN THE 60S. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THURSDAY
ON...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WERE SPREADING OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO OUR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
MORNING. BLOWING DUST ALREADY LESS THAN A MILE REPORTED IN SWISHER
COUNTY...WITH SIMILAR REPORTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE CASTRO AND HALE
COUNTIES...AND ALSO ADDED A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS
WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY MAINLY ON THE CAP-ROCK. THE HIGHEST WIND
SPEEDS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THE
LATEST RAP RUNS...THEN SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDRESSING THE FREEZE WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT...FIRST THOUGHTS ARE
THIS IS A GENUINELY COLD AIRMASS BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. WILL STUDY MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST RESTRICTIONS AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH VFR THUS DOMINATING. A HIGH-
BASED LOW CLOUD DECK WILL AT LEAST SCATTER ACROSS BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG DRY WINDS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT TODAY...EVEN LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE RED FLAG MINUTES LIKELY WILL
CLICK OFF. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL WE WILL NOT ISSUE EITHER A RED FLAG OR FIRE DANGER PRODUCT
FOR TODAY. THIS IS A BIT OF A GREY AREA FOR US AS THE WINDS APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN...BUT WILL BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT COUNTERED BY THE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CAUTION CERTAINLY IS ADVISED FOR ANYONE CONTEMPLATING BURNS TODAY.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
AVIATION...
ANOTHER LOW TO MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE
CNTL PLAINS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA BY MID
MORNING WITH NORTH TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25G35KT FOR
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SOME MINOR OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY DUE
TO BLDU EXPECTED AT KLBB.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER...BUT WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST...WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME NORTH BREEZES ARE STILL
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW CENTERED
OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI AND WILL SHIFT EWD TO ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN
BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE NEARLY
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL
KEEP THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CORE OF HIGHER NORTH TO NW WINDS AT 850-700 MB
THAT WILL ROTATE SWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MASSIVELY LARGE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MIXING OF THAT MOMENTUM TO THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST 20-30 MPH WINDS AREAWIDE WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF THE NERN
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA SEEING WINDS PUSH TOWARD 35 MPH...
PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX. SOME CONCERN THAT MIXING MAY NOT BE TERRIBLY EFFICIENT WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND THAT LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
ALSO RETARD MIXING POTENTIAL. MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON SOME
OF THESE CONCERNS AS WELL. HOWEVER...ATTM WILL GIVE THE NOD TOWARD
THE STRONGER GFS GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZATION AND
EXPECTATION THAT THE WRF-NAM IS OVERDOING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A TULIA TO SPUR
LINE.
OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS
THE NWRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE SOME CONCERN BASED ON UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND HOW WELL SFC WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANOTHER 850 MB CORE OF STRONGER WINDS PROGGED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD...BUT BOTH RAW MODEL TEMPS AND MOS TEMPS SUGGEST THAT A
PERIOD OF 30-32F IS POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST POCKETS OF THE NWRN ZONES.
AM NOT SOLD ON THE IDEA...BUT GIVEN WE ARE NOW ABOUT 8-12 DAYS AFTER
THE AVG DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE AND A LITTLE MORE SINCE THE ACTUAL
LAST FREEZE FOR THAT AREA AM INCLINED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH.
LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS...HAS SLOWLY
SHIFTED NE TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST UA RIDGING IMPINGES ON THE WRN CONUS. AS
SUCH...WNWRLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LEADING TO PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING AND THUS PERSISTENT NRLY
SFC WINDS USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORM TEMPS /50S AND 60S/ THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCURRING TOMORROW. MID-UPPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL BE WANING BY TOMORROW...BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY
WINDS /15-20 MPH/ ARE STILL ON TAP /MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK/...WITH
MOST WELCOMED LIGHT WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY.
AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS
EAST NM. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONFINES THE PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NM...WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND HENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WRN ZONES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DISPLAYING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY BEING THE RULE...AND WILL OPT TO CONTINUE BELOW
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM. UA RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT NEAR ZONAL FLOW
AND CAUSE THE STUBBORN BROAD UA LOW TO FINALLY LIFT NE INTO QUEBEC.
GRADUALLY WARMING WILL THEREBY COMMENCE AS THE RETURN OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND S-SW SFC WINDS TAKES SHAPE. TEMPS WILL WARM FROM THE
70S AND 80S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S AND 90S BY SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...DUE TO
HEIGHT FALLS FROM A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE MOVING ON THE CALI SHORE.
ALL IN ALL...A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 32 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 64 34 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 65 35 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 67 36 63 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 67 37 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 67 39 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 68 39 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 70 41 67 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 71 41 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 73 44 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ022>026-029>032-037-038.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022>025-029>031.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028.
&&
$$
05/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW STRATUS LAYER
HAS MOVED INLAND TO EAST OF HEBBRONVILLE TO NORTHWEST OF BEEVILLE.
NON-UNIFORM CATEGORIES EXIST WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER...SOME AREAS
ALONG THE COAST THEN UP TO VICTORIA HAVE LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS. WHILE AREAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD LAYER FROM ALICE
TO BEEVILLE HAVE VLIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. WINDS WILL BE TURNING
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO THE NORTH BY 18Z WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MARINE LAYER WITH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY 15Z WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IN LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHER NORTH WINDS BEHIND FRONT SINCE IT
IS HARD TO SAY COLD FRONT WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 90S TODAY. WENT WITH HRRR MODEL DEPICTING MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S. READINGS WILL FINALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS MIXED WITH SMOKE
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND VISIBILITIES ARE VERY
POOR OVER THE WATERS. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER AND KEPT
EXPIRATION TIME AT 14Z. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH
VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVING BEFORE MAIN FRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVES
INTO THE WATERS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SCEC LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE LOW END SCA OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY)...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT
WILL EXIST OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM
RH LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LVL LOW
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE
TO LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY...THOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME BEGINS WORKING INTO THE UPPER LVLS DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION MIDWEEK. BY FRIDAY UPPER LVL LOW FINALLY OPENS AND TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH TO THE EAST. RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 57 83 56 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 52 80 50 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 97 60 87 58 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 94 55 84 53 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 88 59 80 59 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 93 52 85 52 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 95 55 84 55 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 62 79 63 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MARINE LAYER WITH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY 15Z WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IN LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHER NORTH WINDS BEHIND FRONT SINCE IT
IS HARD TO SAY COLD FRONT WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 90S TODAY. WENT WITH HRRR MODEL DEPICTING MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S. READINGS WILL FINALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS MIXED WITH SMOKE
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND VISIBILITIES ARE VERY
POOR OVER THE WATERS. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER AND KEPT
EXPIRATION TIME AT 14Z. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH
VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVING BEFORE MAIN FRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVES
INTO THE WATERS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SCEC LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE LOW END SCA OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER (TODAY)...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT
WILL EXIST OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM
RH LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LVL LOW
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE
TO LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY...THOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME BEGINS WORKING INTO THE UPPER LVLS DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION MIDWEEK. BY FRIDAY UPPER LVL LOW FINALLY OPENS AND TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH TO THE EAST. RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 57 83 56 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 52 80 50 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 97 60 87 58 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 94 55 84 53 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 88 59 80 59 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 93 52 85 52 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 95 55 84 55 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 62 79 63 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH JUST PASSING KIAH AND SAW
DEWPOINT JUMP NEARLY 21 DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD GET MORE
FOG THAN STRATUS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TAFS
IN THAT TREND BUT MAY NEED MORE AMMENDMENTS. STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH
STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW AND SEE CIGS IMPROVE. WINDS STILL
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT HAS REVERSED AND WAS MOVING INLAND AT 730
PM. DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WERE IN THE
MID 30S...WHILE TO ITS SOUTHEAST THE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER
70S. A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN BE FELT WHEREVER
THE BOUNDARY CROSSES.
THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. STILL THINK PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK THE DEWPOINT AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR IMAGERY AND EVEN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DRY LINE PUSHING BACK NORTH WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND DRY NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH BACK NORTH AND
SHOULD SEE A RAPID RISE IN SFC MOISTURE AS IT DOES. MAY GET SOME
LOW STRATUS OR EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. DO NOT
THINK THERE WILL BE VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS AS THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MIXING OVERNIGHT. STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAINLY NW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BE GUSTY. SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND THE DRY LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE CITY OF HOUSTON.
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT THIS EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INLAND.
MOST LIKELY IT SHOULD STALL OUT AROUND A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE DRY LINE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT PUTTING IT AT THE COAST AROUND NOON WHILE
THE ECMWF AND NAM PUT THE FRONT AT THE COAST CLOSER TO 6 PM. HAVE
CONTINUED TO PREFER THE ECMWF TIMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
COULD VARY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT ONE IS ON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK VERY NICE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING ON
THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN FRIDAY MORNING. THE EURO HAD BEEN HINTING AT SOME
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT HAS SINCE
BACKED OFF. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. KEPT WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS AND REDUCED POPS. 23
MARINE...
WEAKENING WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED IN IT WAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE
NEEDED...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 82 49 74 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 86 53 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 84 62 76 60 / 10 20 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST CANADA...INTO HUDSON BAY AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS CUT OFF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY SLOT ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS KICKED THE SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90 THIS MORNING TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND BACK SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE... UNDER THE UPPER LOW...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. UPWARDS OF 250 J/KG
OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WAS DEPICTED BY RAP ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE
SHOWERS. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
NEW GRANT COUNTY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO KENOSHA WI
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
GET GRADUALLY WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW TOO...WITH THE 12Z MPX
AND INL SOUNDINGS REPORTING 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND
-2C. THIS COLDER AIR ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FALL NORTH OF
THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. EVEN SOME SNOW FELL ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 THIS MORNING WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RESULTED IN
DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. MOST OF THE SNOW WAS CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BASICALLY MOVES NOWHERE. THIS LEAVES
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN COLD CONVEYOR BELT AFFECTING MINNESOTA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO WRAP BACK INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS
EVENING...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE POSSIBLY
BREAKING UP SOME. SOME OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT COULD WRAP INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW...AS DEPICTED IN WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHT PROGS DROPPING BELOW
1000 FT. AUSTIN TO CHARLES CITY LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND THE GROUND IS WARM. TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD ROTATE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT IS
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO THE
COOLER AIR OVER MINNESOTA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS NO REAL STRONG IDENTIFICATION FEATURE FOR
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...THOUGH MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY A INSTABILITY ISSUE...RESULTING FROM COLDER AIR
ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SEEMS THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE PRECIPITATION. 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -3C
WEST TO 2C EAST...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. SIDED
TOWARDS THE LOW SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE...ITS COMING...WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A SWITCH TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEN A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
LAKE HURON. UNTIL THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...WE WILL NEED TO CONTEND
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ROTATING AROUND IT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD DIMINISH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE 29.00Z ECMWF AND 29.12Z CANADIAN...BUT THIS WILL
ALL HINGE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW EJECTS. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
GOING TO BE COOL THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN 850MB TEMPS HOLDING BETWEEN -
2C AND 1C AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS. DESPITE THE COOL 850MB TEMPS...PROGGED
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE 1500 FT AGL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
THE PLAGUE OF RAIN THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA MAY FINALLY TAKE A
BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLOUD CLEARING LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER...AND POSSIBLY NOT EVEN CLEARING AT ALL IN WISCONSIN. IN
FACT...THE 29.12Z NAM SUGGESTS PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE LINGERING IN
WISCONSIN AS A RESULT OF THESE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. ALTHOUGH ITS
IN THE MINORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS WARRANTED FOR WISCONSIN.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EJECTING UPPER LOW.
29.12Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH THIS
WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. KEPT SOME
LOWER PROBABILITIES IN FOR THIS WAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL
SCENARIOS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA PROGGED TO BARREL THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPEED AND
LOCATION...BUT ALL HAVE THE SAME IDEA. GIVEN THE POTENT NATURE OF
THE WAVE...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY...BUT THE DIFFERENCES CREATE
ISSUES WITH GOING TOO HIGH ON CHANCES. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL SEE RAIN...BUT ELSEWHERE IT IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EITHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
GIVEN SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT.
LOOKS LIKE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL THEN END UP DRY DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE.
WITH THE RETURN TO UPPER RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND WARM ADVECTION COME INTO THE PICTURE. BOTH THE 29.12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. THE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND A WARM FRONT SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO I-70 WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK FROM REACHING
NORMAL. NEVERTHELESS...THE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...LEADING TO IFR/LIFR MAINLY CLOUD CEILING CONDITIONS. KRST
WILL SEE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...SWITCHING TO MAINLY RAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO A MIX THIS EVENING AGAIN
WITH COOLING. KLSE EXPECTED TO SEE OFF/ON SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED NOW FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP DIMINISH THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING
ON TRIBUTARIES. RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE
TRIBUTARIES BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THEM.
MEANWHILE...PLENTIFUL RAIN THAT FELL UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA COMBINED WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ALLOW THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CONTINUE TO RISE. MANY SITES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE POSTED ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI AS A RESULT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ033-041-053-054-061.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ088-096.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
OCCLUDED CYCLONE SPINNING OVER EASTERN IOWA AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. EARLIER BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW
THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS PIVOTED AROUND TO THE
UPPER PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE MOST PART. STILL
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE EARLIER REPORTS INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THOUGH
OBS ARE NOT NECESSARILY REPORTING IT...THINK A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
MIST AND DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARE
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. STILL ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. TIMING OF SHOWERS IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE LARGE AND STUBBORN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. NEXT AREA OF RAINFALL IS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A SILVER LINING IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION OF
SNOW. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE STATE AND WIND
FIELDS WEAKENING...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING DECENT RAINS
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
LOW SHOULD STILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPS COULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE
LOW 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS WI ON
WEDS NGT. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK DRY SLOT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN WI DURING THE EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WILL ADJUSTED POP TRENDS ACCORDINGLY...BUT
12 HOUR POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER NE WI. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON THU NGT/FRI...
AS A COUPLE S/W TROFS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI ON SATURDAY. THE LFQ OF A 110 KT
JET STREAK AND A POTENT S/W TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT...AND
ADDED ISOLD THUNDER AS H7-H5 LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7 C/KM.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND SHOULD BRING A RARE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK...
SFC/H8 WARM FRONTS WILL WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER.
THIS MAY BRING A SMALL OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TSTMS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WAA EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A
LITTLE BIT. IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE OCCURS...
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SWITCH
BACK TO RAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE TO MVFR. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF IFR CIGS ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IFR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...WEAKENING WINDS AND AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS INTO THE LIFR RANGE. DENSE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS THIS OCCURS AS
WELL. EXPECT ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF THE CIGS/VSBSY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1146 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IA. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WI THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH WED
AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND LOW. HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN NOW MOVING
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. DRY AIR VERY PRESENT ON APX
EVENING SOUNDING BEING ADVECTED IN OVER NORTHERN WI ON STRONG EAST
WINDS...LIMITING PCPN AMOUNTS SO FAR. THIS DRY AIR VERY EVIDENT
OVER FAR NORTH WHERE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 20S. AS PCPN MOVES IN
OVER NORTH SEEING SNOW/SLEET SHOWING UP...THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
STILL MILD SO AM NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS POINT TO
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK WAA BRINGS 850
TEMP UP TO +2 OVER VILAS COUNTY BY TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NORTH
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK OFF...BECOMING LIGHT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WED. MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. WILL ADD TO MARINE
ZONES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFT DEBATE LAND ZONES.
BEST MOISTURE/PW`S OVER 1 INCH NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF STATE...WILL
DROP ISSUING ESF WITH LESSER QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNATURE EVENT) WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEM COULD BRING CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE QPF
FORECAST GRID. UNFORTUNATELY...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHERE
THIS TYPE OF EVENT WOULD FORM. EVEN IF A SHARS EVENT DOES DEVELOP...IT
WOULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN WHAT IS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND COULD IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN
06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY (MAYBE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST).
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...FORCING ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS
POOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOOKED AT THUNDER PROSPECTS...DID NOT SUPPORT ADDING
THUNDER AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WARRANTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SWITCH
BACK TO RAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE TO MVFR. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF IFR CIGS ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IFR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...WEAKENING WINDS AND AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS INTO THE LIFR RANGE. DENSE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS THIS OCCURS AS
WELL. EXPECT ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF THE CIGS/VSBSY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......RE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
644 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IA. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WI THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH WED
AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND LOW. HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN NOW MOVING
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. DRY AIR VERY PRESENT ON APX
EVENING SOUNDING BEING ADVECTED IN OVER NORTHERN WI ON STRONG EAST
WINDS...LIMITING PCPN AMOUNTS SO FAR. THIS DRY AIR VERY EVIDENT
OVER FAR NORTH WHERE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 20S. AS PCPN MOVES IN
OVER NORTH SEEING SNOW/SLEET SHOWING UP...THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
STILL MILD SO AM NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS POINT TO
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK WAA BRINGS 850
TEMP UP TO +2 OVER VILAS COUNTY BY TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NORTH
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK OFF...BECOMING LIGHT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WED. MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. WILL ADD TO MARINE
ZONES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFT DEBATE LAND ZONES.
BEST MOISTURE/PW`S OVER 1 INCH NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF STATE...WILL
DROP ISSUING ESF WITH LESSER QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNATURE EVENT) WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEM COULD BRING CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE QPF
FORECAST GRID. UNFORTUNATELY...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHERE
THIS TYPE OF EVENT WOULD FORM. EVEN IF A SHARS EVENT DOES DEVELOP...IT
WOULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN WHAT IS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND COULD IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN
06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY (MAYBE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST).
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...FORCING ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS
POOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOOKED AT THUNDER PROSPECTS...DID NOT SUPPORT ADDING
THUNDER AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WARRANTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE STATE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE. CIGS WILL
VARY FROM IVFR TO MVFR...LOWERING TO IFR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE STATE TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BACK OFF AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......RE
AVIATION.......TE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IA. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WI THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH WED
AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND LOW. HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN NOW MOVING
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. DRY AIR VERY PRESENT ON APX
EVENING SOUNDING BEING ADVECTED IN OVER NORTHERN WI ON STRONG EAST
WINDS...LIMITING PCPN AMOUNTS SO FAR. THIS DRY AIR VERY EVIDENT
OVER FAR NORTH WHERE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 20S. AS PCPN MOVES IN
OVER NORTH SEEING SNOW/SLEET SHOWING UP...THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
STILL MILD SO AM NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS POINT TO
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK WAA BRINGS 850
TEMP UP TO +2 OVER VILAS COUNTY BY TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NORTH
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK OFF...BECOMING LIGHT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WED. MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. WILL ADD TO MARINE
ZONES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFT DEBATE LAND ZONES.
BEST MOISTURE/PW`S OVER 1 INCH NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF STATE...WILL
DROP ISSUING ESF WITH LESSER QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNATURE EVENT) WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEM COULD BRING CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE QPF
FORECAST GRID. UNFORTUNATELY...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHERE
THIS TYPE OF EVENT WOULD FORM. EVEN IF A SHARS EVENT DOES DEVELOP...IT
WOULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN WHAT IS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND COULD IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN
06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY (MAYBE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST).
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...FORCING ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS
POOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOOKED AT THUNDER PROSPECTS...DID NOT SUPPORT ADDING
THUNDER AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WARRANTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM SLOWLY CHURNING ACROSS MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF
SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ON
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CIGS
MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.
COMPACT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ENSURE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR A FEW
DAYS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......RE
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
WATCHING THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE TO THE SOUTH CLOSELY AND
INSTABILITY TO SEE IF CHANGES IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTS NEED TO
BE CHANGED...AND TRYING TO BUILD IN BETTER TIMING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEXT WAVE OF RAIN. WINDS STILL STRONG...BUT THOSE SHOULD BE
DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN LONG WAVE ANCHORED NEAR
CENTRAL NEB WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGE
TROUGH AREA MOVING NORTH THROUGH IA/MO. IT APPEARS ONE SMALLER CURL
CAN BE SEEN IN NERN MO HEADING NORTH. THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER
300-500MB QG CONVERGENCE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS BROAD TROUGH SPOKE
ROTATING NORTHWARD...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW-LEVELS NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THE RAIN TODAY NOW LIFTING NORTH. THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO HOLD NEARLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF I-80 AT 19Z.
MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM OMAHA TO CENTRAL MO WAS CLEAR ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CONVECTING NOW...AND OVER THE PAST HOURS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT ARE RIPPING EAST...NOW NEAR KDSM. THE
STORMS ON THIS OCCLUSION AND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z RAOB PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE MORNING MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...WITH THE
28.12Z GFS/NAM SHOWING A 1-1.25 INCH PLUME FROM NRN IL INTO SERN
MN. KMPX WAS ONLY 0.62 AT 12Z FROM THE RAOB. 1500 FT WINDS OF AREA
88D VAD WINDS ARE STILL IN THE 40-50KT RANGE FROM KMKX-
KMPX...EXPLAINING THE CONTINUED WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH.
AS THE LATER AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE OCCLUSION PROGRESSES SEWRD TOWARD IL. BY EVENING THE TRIPLE
POINT SHOULD BE WELL INTO IL WITH A BAND OF TSRA ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE OCCLUSION HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE OCCLUSION
BOUNDARY STAYS NEAR I-80 IN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS...WITH THE
ELEVATED TSRA AND PRECIPITATION BAND ROTATING INTO MN/WI. THE
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS 250 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AT 20Z...WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AS WITH DAYS PAST...AS THIS TSRA BAND
APPROACHES NERN IA AND SWRN WI AFTER 5 PM...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE. SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN A TRANSITION TO A
MORE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE BAND
ROTATING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE FORECAST AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. WITH MODELS TOO HIGH ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER...HAVE DISCOUNTED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SUCH
AS THE 28.12Z. THE BAND WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS TOWARD ROCKFORD IL. THIS WILL PROVIDE A QUICK WARM UP TO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI FOR A
TIME TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME THUNDER THERE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN PEA SIZED HAIL WITH 250 J/KG OF CAPE OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MON APR 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE AREA WILL BE RIGHT UNDER THE OCCLUDED DEEP LOW WITH SPOKES OF
ENERGY CONTINUING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THE BIG PICTURE BUT THE DETAILS OF TIMING ON RAIN
CHANCES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AMONG ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD SHOWERY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN WE HAVE
SEEN. FAIRLY SATURATED CONDITIONS AND SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER
AREAS I AM SURE. AT THIS POINT...RAISED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD TO AT LEAST 60 PERCENT WITH MORE DETAIL TO BE ADDED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THOSE DAYS AND CAN IDENTIFY WHERE TO IMPROVE THE
FORECAST. COOL AND CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAINFALL /LESS THAN ONE
TENTH PER 12 HOURS/ FOR MOST EVERYWHERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SPOKING AROUND THE LOW WILL MAKE FOR DETAILS IN THIS
PERIOD DIFFICULT. BY FRIDAY IT WOULD APPEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGEST THE AREA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH CAUSES ITS OWN ISSUES
FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HEIGHTS RISE MORE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ENERGY
CRASHES ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY THEN EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER SATURDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ACTIVATING ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR A 150 HOUR
FORECAST...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS THAT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH THE NORMAL WARM FRONTAL LIFT SIGNALS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. WHILE PLACEMENT
IS VARIED...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ADDS TO CONFIDENCE. BOTTOM LINE
IS SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER DAY STILL BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST 5 DAYS
OUT. TEMPERATURES DONT LOOK TO REBOUND MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT
CLOUDS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
CLOSED...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP KRST/KLSE UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS...WITH BOUTS OF MVFR VSBYS DURING -SHRA/RA. TIMING THE
PROBABLE WET AND DRY PERIODS IS CHALLENGING...AND HAVE BEEN LEANING
ON -SHRA OR VCSH WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION TO SHOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS
DO FAVOR KEEPING KRST IN RAIN MORE OFTEN THEN NOT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE...WHILE KLSE COULD SPEND MORE TIME IN A DRIER REGION.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG TONIGHT...BUT AS THE LOW INCHES NORTHWARD
TUE...EXPECT SOME SLACKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A
REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS. DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
TUE...THEN SHIFTING NORTHWEST LATE TUE NIGHT. LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN
AT KLSE WITH AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN
FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AFTER RECEIVING LESS RAIN OVERNIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...THE RIVER
SITUATION SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BEHAVE FOR THIS STORM. WE ARE EXPECTING
ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS
WHICH WILL MEAN BANKFULL RIVER RISES FOR MOST RIVERS...AND A LOW FLOODING
THREAT. THE KICKAPOO MAY BE THE CLOSEST RIVER TO FLOODING.
MAYBE THE MAIN STORY IS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THAT WILL SWALLOW
ALL THE INCOMING TRIBUTARY WATER AND CONTINUE TO RISE ALL NEXT
WEEK. FROM WINONA MN SOUTH...IT APPEARS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
BE APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD LEVELS BY LATER THIS WEEK...WITH FLOODING
LIKELY FURTHER NORTH. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WINONA AND SOUTH FLOODING THREAT.
AFTER TONIGHT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AS THE
GULF MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED EAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ041-053-054-061.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ088-096.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
IAZ011-030.
&&
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT THU MAY 01 2014
.SYNOPSIS
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
STUBBORN DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SO MUCH INCLEMENT/SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO OUR NORTH
IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO FILL AND DE-AMPLIFY/EJECT OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS WE WILL SEE THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR HEADS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS PUSH
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BE REPLACED BY AN INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE THAT WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND (ONE MIGHT SAY THE MAJOR PLAYER)...IS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/IMPULSE BEGINNING TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TOWARD TH SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATER TONIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS ENERGY WILL QUICKLY EJECT EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED/SHOWERY
PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...FORECAST AREA RESIDES WITHIN A WEAK GRADIENT
PATTERN BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FL PANHANDLE/GA/CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE APPROACHING AND PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE THE FINAL
MASS FIELDS/MOMENTUM PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
AND CLEAR OUR WEATHER OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLLIDING SEA-BREEZES OVER
THE INTERIOR...AND ALSO THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL OUTFLOW SHOWERS THAT
CAME SOUTH ALONG THE COAST FROM LAST NIGHTS FL PANHANDLE CONVECTION
HAVE DISSIPATED...AND WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT MOSTLY DRY...BUT
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TO START OUT THE MORNING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
TODAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVES UP INFLUENCE ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT
SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE OPENING UP AND RENEWED EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED
BY NWP OVER THE PENINSULA TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL
VERY SLOWLY BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC IN NATURE...WITH A STEADY
INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY WEAK...AND
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT IS VERY WEAK TO NEUTRAL IN
NATURE. WOULD ONLY BE EXPECTING A LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE NATURE COAST GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...THE ADDED FOCUS OF THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GIVE THIS ASCENT A BOOST AND RESULT IN A FEW MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG THE NATURE COAST I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE EVEN MORE DEFINED FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SUN COAST ZONES. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST COAST
SEA-BREEZE OVER THE INTERIOR...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
POSSIBLE...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST A
SCATTERING OF STORMS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERIOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES... ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF THE NATURE COAST...AND THEN INLAND FROM
THE I-75 CORRIDOR FURTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES THEN FALL QUICKLY AS
ONE HEADS BACK TOWARD THE COAST WITHIN THE POST SEA-BREEZE
ENVIRONMENT.
TONIGHT...
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE/FOCUS WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET. FOR A WHILE LATE THIS EVENING CONDITIONS MAY BE RATHER
QUIET/DRY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE
ONLY TEMPORARY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ONE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE NATURE
COAST. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD CONTINUING THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF STRENGTHENING WINDS FIELDS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AND RESULTING IN INCREASING/DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...THIS MORE EFFICIENT FRONTAL FOCUS ALONG WITH ADDED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300-305K SURFACES TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND DEEP LAYER SUBTLE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS
PROGGED TO RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST. THESE SHOWERS DO NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY
LATE AT NIGHT...AND WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF I-4. HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY LATE TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE PER GFS/NAM SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL NOT BE ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS...HOWEVER SHOWALTER INDICES ARE
RIGHT AROUND ZERO SUGGESTING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR UPDRAFT
CHARGE SEPARATION AND SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL.
&&
.MID TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FL...FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THESE FEATURES MOVE
EASTWARD...WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES SAT AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THESE
FEATURES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND WHILE BOTH FORM WAVES ON THE BOUNDARY...THE TIMING AND LOCATION
VARY SOME. THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST ODDS INITIALLY IN THE NORTH BUT SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
SAT NIGHT AND SUN - THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF FL
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXITING SOUTH FL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AS RAIN ODDS TREND
DOWN AND EXIT BY MORNING.
SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED - UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OVER THE
MID-CONUS THEN SLIDES TO THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE WESTERN GULF
SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES ACROSS FL TO THE ATLANTIC...AS IT RIDGES BACK
TO THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR NORMAL RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEGIN EXPERIENCED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING. A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...BUT COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAFS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
TURN WINDS ONSHORE AND BECOME GUSTY 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST. A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH KLAL SEEING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR A BRIEF STORM. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE DROPPING SOUTH
INTO THE NATURE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THIS FEATURE FOR KTPA/KPIE...HOWEVER...
MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY AND THEN STALL IN PLACE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF TARPON
SPRINGS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE AGAIN AND DROP SOUTH...OUT OF THE FORECAST WATERS LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY PROVIDING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS TO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 72 82 69 / 30 30 60 50
FMY 90 73 88 71 / 20 10 40 30
GIF 90 70 85 69 / 60 50 60 50
SRQ 86 74 83 70 / 10 30 60 50
BKV 89 67 82 64 / 50 50 70 60
SPG 87 74 82 70 / 20 30 60 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1201 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
LATEST RAP AND LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL CAP AND HIGH
LFC. HRRR SHOWS LIMITED COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
UPSTREAM RADAR ANALYSIS NOT IMPRESSIVE. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION.
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. A COOL BIAS NOTED
IN MOS BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. EXPECT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE IS FARTHER EAST. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY IN THE EAST SECTION. THE MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE
MORE DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST PART FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONT STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY JUST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH NO RETURNS ON RADAR...OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED TO
OUR WEST...ACROSS E TENN AND NW GA TO THE GULF COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE INTO OUR FA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING. A MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL COOLING MAY PROMOTE MVFR CIGS
AND A FEW SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY THURSDAY LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY...THOUGH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OGB TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHRA OR PSBL THUNDER THERE THRU EARLY
AFTN.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA ENDING FROM W TO E OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THIS
EVENING. THUS...ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR S SITES
WITH VFR EXPECTED. NNW WINDS 6-8 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THEN INCREASE FROM THE NNE ~10-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 15Z THU. MAINLY NE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014/
UPDATE...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AS ELEVATED OVER-RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUE...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DECREASING AND PUSHING FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY A FEW SHOWERS
WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF SAINT
MARY PARISH AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN PARISH UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WSW TO ENE STREAMING SHRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS LOWER
ACADIANA EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF LFT/ARA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THUS...ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FOR S SITES WITH VFR
EXPECTED. NNW WINDS 6-8 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THEN INCREASE FROM THE NNE ~10-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 15Z THU.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE SPRAWLING CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAS NOW PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER
70S TO UPPER 60S. RADAR IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME
SHOWERS/SPRINKLE OVER THE COASTAL WATER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS JUST BEYOND THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR WITH THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...HOWEVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON IT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WITH SOME COMING ONSHORE IN IBERIA...ST.
MARY AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IT
FINALLY DISSIPATES/MOVES EAST.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THIS AREA REMAINS IN FAVORABLE
AREA OF THE JET AND IMPULSES RIDING ACROSS IN IT. OTHERWISE AREAS
INLAND LOOK DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO 45 TO 50
RANGE! TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADD SCEC TO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF
WATERS.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 51 75 53 78 56 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 53 76 55 78 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 48 73 51 77 51 / 0 0 10 10 10
KLFT 52 73 55 76 56 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1219 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE AT 1049 PM...
PRIMARILY TO BRUSH UP TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY/WIND TRENDS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO LOWER THE WINDS.
OVERALL IT APPEARS AREAS E OF HWY 281 WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AREAS TO THE W WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS TOO
HAS BEEN REFLECTED BETTER IN THE FCST USING THE RAP 13KM CLOUD
COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
DECREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT DECREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH AND MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELD TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON WINDS...ALONG
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHC FOR SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS. THE PATTERN ALOFT
CONTINUED TO FEATURE A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...AND A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CONUS WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SITUATED IN IOWA. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...CLOUDY...WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR CWA EXCEPT
FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG THRU LATE AFTN
BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHICH WILL INHIBIT
THE FORMATION OF FROST AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE MID 30S FOR
LOWS.
A JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE
OF LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS AND
BRINGING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SPRINKLES FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THRU.
ON THURSDAY...BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN BUT WE TREND
TOWARD IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST OF MAY. TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH
WEAKER THAN TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY
BE LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HEIGHTS RISE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND
RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL REPRIEVE
FROM THE WINDY CONDITIONS. HAVE TARGETED HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES...AND VERY END OF THE PERIOD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/ FINALLY CLEARING THE CWA TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY EVENING HOURS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SHARPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AS THE TROUGH SLIDES FURTHER AWAY AND RIDGING
DOMINATES THE WEST COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY...AND KEPT THINGS DRY.
AT THE SFC...WINDS START THE PERIOD OUT OF THE NW...PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AND TAPERING OFF IN
SPEED. STILL A CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS THOSE WINDS TAPER OFF...AND MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUING
TO SHOW OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION GOING IN THE HWO. FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...EXPECTING A NICE
WARM UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...AND TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S.
LOOKING AT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINS A MAIN PLAYER IN
THE PATTERN IMPACTING THE CWA...BUT WITH TIME THE RIDGING
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT REMAINING THAT WAY IS NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA. LIFT VIA AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WRN CANADA BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WRN CONUS RIDGE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT MUCH OF THE MODEL SUPPORT
KEEPS IT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS MODELS SHOW SFC LOW PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST
NEAR THE NEB/KS STATE LINE. THE EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL KEEP SC NEB COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S/MID
70S...VS NC KS WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY SUNDAY COULD
CLIMB UP NEAR 80. JUST GOING TO DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THAT FRONT
SETS UP.
AS WE GET INTO MON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND BY MONDAY
NIGHT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STARTING TO BUILD IN...AS THE
WEST COAST SYSTEM IS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH. SOME QUESTION AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EAST...WILL IT DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
DESERT SW/REMAIN A CLOSED SYSTEM LIKE THE GFS SUGGESTS...OR REMAIN
OPEN LONGER...BEFORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES LIKE THE ECMWF. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT.
COULD SEE SOME LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECT THE AREA TUES
NIGHT/WED...AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND...SHOWING HIGHS INCREASING INTO
THE MID 70S/MID 80S RANGE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH SCT V BKN CLOUDS MOSTLY AROUND 7-8K FT.
NW WINDS WERE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 28 KTS AT 05Z. THIS GUSTINESS
SHOULD CONT FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HRS WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY 08Z
IT SHOULD BE DONE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR WITH BKN 7-8K FT CIGS GIVING WAY TO SCT STRATOCU
DEVELOPING AND LIFTING FROM 4-6K FT. NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 34
KTS 13Z-16Z. GUSTINESS WILL CONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
PEAK NO HIGHER THAN 26 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: ANY STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z LEAVING VFR SKC. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE NW. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LEADING TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM WITH
LITTLE FANFARE. THERE IS A WEAK LINE OF -SHRA MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING REMAINING IN THE NW PIEDMONT. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS
SITUATION MUCH BETTER THAN THE OTHER HIRES MODELS AND THERE IS NO
NEED TO JUMP OUTSIDE OF ITS GENERAL GUIDANCE. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJ
DOWN INTO THE ISOL RANGE WHICH SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MASSIVE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PULL NE. THIS
WILL GENERALLY LEAVE THE FCST AREA IN A MODEST SUBSIDENCE REGIME
SLOWING THE SFC FRONT AND WASHING IT OUT. THUS...THERE WONT BE MUCH
OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THE TROF AXIS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD GUST
POTENTIAL AS MIXING ALLOWS 20-25 KT MOMENTUM TRANSFERS. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY AS A TIGHT LLVL THICKNESS GRADIENT MOVES IN...BUT
BECOMES MODIFIED WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED S/LY FLOW...ESP OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH THIS WARMING
MODIFICATION...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN ALONG WITH A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTION...WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL MOST
LOCALS. THIS COULD BE A TAD LOW THO IN GOOD INSOLATION.
OVERNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND THE AREA BECOMES LESS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAKENING ULVL LOW. SKY COVER IS NOT WHOLLY CERTAIN ATTM...BUT MOST
INDICATIONS ARE A CI DECK WILL MOVE IN AND OFFSET MAX COOLING BY A
FEW DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE LOWER MTN THICKNESSES...CLOUD COVER WILL
MOSTLY ELIMINATE A FROST CONCERN EVEN ACROSS THE MTN TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS SOLUTION INDICATING THE
SURFACE WAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF/NAM/CMC KEEP THE WAVE
TIED CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THAT SAID...ALL SOLUTIONS
CONVERGE ON SUFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
EJECTING UPPER JET MAX. BEYOND THAT...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST TAKING ROOT OVER
THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE START OF A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THUS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY REMAINING 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
SPREADING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA ACROSS THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PRESENT A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROF. GUIDANCE HINTS AT
POTENTIAL ACTIVATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LEADING SHOWERS/MCS
SPILLING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEREFORE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS RANGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTS FURTHER EAST WITH A SERIES OF
POTENTIAL EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS EVENTS PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF
SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY MIDWEEK
SETTING UP THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON BEING AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SEEING LESS AND LESS CHANCES FOR PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEAK FROPA THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH ULVL CLOUDS REMAINING RELATIVELY THIN...AND A
DIP INTO IFR IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL
MONITOR AND AMD AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SW/LY IN CROSS GRADIENT
FLOW WITH MODERATE GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEAK
W/LY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD GO IN AND OUT OF VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS...WITH LIKELY MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK. KAVL SHOULD
SCT OUT WITH EARLIER FROPA. IMPROVING CONDS DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFT SUNRISE WITH SCT/BKN CI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED
NW/LY AT KAVL DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER END GUSTS THERE AND AT
KHKY...WHILE THE PIEDMONT SITES WILL SEE MORE HEATING/MIXING LEADING
TO MODERATE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...DRYING CONDITIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRI
THROUGH MON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z
KCLT HIGH 83% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 79% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 75% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 74% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
958 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES EARLIER THIS MORNING TO TAKE OUT MENTION
OF SMOKE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WILDFIRES IN COLLIER AND GLADES
COUNTIES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN CONTAINED WITH NO REPORTS OF SMOKE
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE
MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT STILL VERY DRY ALOFT WITH
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
LESS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS SO THE FORECAST OF MOSTLY
INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING DEVELOPMENT AROUND 18Z AND PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS BY 15Z AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY GET NEAR KPBI THIS MORNING AS STREAMER SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO PUT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
.RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
.BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
TODAY...BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO SWING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. SO SCATTERED POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHICH COULD GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS.
MORE DETAIL DISCUSSION ON THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DRY FOR NEXT WEEK. THE PWAT VALUES
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT
WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT OF 1.6
TO 1.7 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE
SWINGING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 7 FEET BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH. THESE NORTHEAST
SWELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST
COAST AIRPORTS FOR THIS SATURDAY.
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIA 92 91 - 1896
FLL 91 91 - 1920
PBI 90 91 - 1986
MIA BEACH 90 91 - 1964
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 87 73 / 20 10 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 77 88 76 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 89 76 88 75 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 89 73 87 72 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID-LEVELS...IS BEGINNING
TO FILTER ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER OUR REGION SLOWLY
VEERS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
60S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...BUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST
OF THE AREA. THE COASTAL PAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME WEAK MLCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG. DESPITE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
STRONGLY INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR RUN SHOWS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS AS JUST
EAST OF SCOTLAND/HOKE/HARNETT COUNTIES BY 18Z...BUT THAT MAY EVEN BE
TOO FAR WEST BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING...LOWERING BOTH OVER
THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ALL EAST OF I-95. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 24-28KT OVER THE
PIEDMONT LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHT...SFC FRONT EXITS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY. WLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAK SO MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
A BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW TO THE MID-UPPER
50S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK
S/W IN THE MID LEVELS WILL APPROACH FROM TEH WEST AND CROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CLOUD
COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON
FAVORABLE TIMING...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SE COUNTIES. DETERRENT TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 30M BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING MID LEVEL S/W AND LOW-MID
FLOW VEERING TO A MORE NW DIRECTION WILL AID TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A DRY AIR
MASS...TEMPS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND
AROUND 50 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST SATURDAY... THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE S/W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC... OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
SPREADING/HOLDING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
STABLE WITH A NICE CAPPING INVERSION... WITH MAYBE SOME FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 72-76 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA IN A NW TO SE/E
FASHION (WARMEST SE/E). LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S... WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SEND A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING... ALMOST IN
A BACKDOOR FASHION... WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FEATURE. THUS... WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGH AND SHOW TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOME MID 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTH AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 1400 METERS. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 50S.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA... WHILE POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE TRACK ALONG THIS
FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE WEST. SUCH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ARE HARD TO TRACK
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS... WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WRT TEMPS... THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT (WHICH MAY SHIFT BACK AND FORTH WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES)
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL TREND THE WARMEST
TEMPS SW AND COOLEST NE. THIS YIELD HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
NE TO 80S SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM THURSDAY...
SW SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS MORNING AS A SFC FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28KTS WILL OCCUR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF MVFR CEILING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WILL LIFT BY 15Z.OTHERWISE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500-7000FT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
PROBABLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD DEVELOP. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ( NO WORSE
THAN SCATTERED) WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. IN VICINITY
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILING/VISIBILITY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL AID TO SUBSIDE THE WINDS AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500-
5000FT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY WEAK ECHOES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH SOME WEAK ECHOES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AS WELL. THE ONLY GROUND TRUTH WITH THIS ROUND OF OBS HAS
BEEN AT BEMIDJI. HOWEVER A LOT OF THESE RETURNS ARE SO WEAK IT IS
DOUBTFUL THEY ARE REACHING THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THEREFORE I HAVE CUT 40 POPS DOWN TO 30S BUT
DID ADD SOME ISOLATED SHRA OVER NORTHERN VALLEY. ALSO UPDATED
WINDS WITH 12Z RAP DATA AND BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WINDS A COUPLE OF
KNOTS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT DAY
BUT ENOUGH MIXING OCCURRING TO GIVE US HIGHER WINDS THAN PREV FCST
INDICATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
LOCATED OVER THE WI/IL BORDER WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER SASK/MAN WITH NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALTA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL FINALLY KICK WI LOW EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
JUST CHANGES REGIME WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT AND FRI. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SAT BUT AT LEAST THE
PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE.
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST TODAY AND DISSIPATE. WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST TODAY WITH
MORE CLOUDS. GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE WARMER FOR FRI AND SAT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT ON
SUNDAY...AND TEMPS COULD APPROACH 60 AND HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED. IT WILL BECOME VERY
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
IT APPEARS THAT A POTENTIALLY LARGER QPF EVENT COULD OCCUR TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAIN A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH LACK OF TOO MUCH SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE THE AREA OR
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM BDE TO OAKES ND. FOG
LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND
AND FAR NORTHWEST MN. CLEARING LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR GEORGE ISLAND
(LAKE WINNIPEG) TO BRANDON MAN TO MOT. TRAILING EDGE OF LINE WAS
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. CLEARING LINE WILL FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014
THE WARNINGS AT HALLOCK AND HARWOOD HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES AT ABERCROMBIE AND LOOKS TO BE CRESTING
JUST ABOVE 17 FEET. THE CREST ON THE RED RIVER IS THROUGH WAHPETON
AND HEADING NORTH TO FARGO WITH 6K CFS. THE ABERCROMBIE WATER WILL
MERGE INTO THE RED SOUTH OF FARGO IN THE NEXT 36 HRS WITH THE RED
WATER SHORTLY THEREAFTER...CAUSING 27 TO 28 FT TO BE REALIZED AT
FARGO.
THIS FARGO CREST WILL MOVE ITS WAY NORTHWARD AS WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OSLO...WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT DRAYTON. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN...THAT SHOULDN/T AMOUNT TO
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES
HYDROLOGY...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LEADING TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AND SRN AND ERN CWFA. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
CLEAR BY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS SH/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH A WAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND WHICH KEEPS ONLY A BRIEF ISOLATED SHRA FOR
THE EXTREME SRN CWFA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT GUSTY
SW WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BY
BLENDING IN LATEST GUIDANCE.
AS OF 630 AM EDT...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST.
UPPER CI CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD LLVL STCU AT MOST LOCALES. SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH NO UPPER
SUPPORT...THUS LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE WEAK LINES OF -SHRA
OVER THE ERN ZONES. CURRENT SLIGHT POPS HAVE THIS IN CHECK. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN HELD UP WITH CLOUD COVER / MIXING...WITH LOW END GUSTS
SHOWING UP AT KCLT. TDDS ARE REMAINING LARGE ENUF TO PRECLUDE A FG
THREAT WITH SOME LOW LYING AREAS IN THE NRN FTHILLS BEING THE
EXCEPTION. WILL ADJ HR/LY TEMPS AND TDS A BIT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM WITH
LITTLE FANFARE. THERE IS A WEAK LINE OF -SHRA MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING REMAINING IN THE NW PIEDMONT. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS
SITUATION MUCH BETTER THAN THE OTHER HIRES MODELS AND THERE IS NO
NEED TO JUMP OUTSIDE OF ITS GENERAL GUIDANCE. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJ
DOWN INTO THE ISOL RANGE WHICH SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MASSIVE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PULL NE. THIS
WILL GENERALLY LEAVE THE FCST AREA IN A MODEST SUBSIDENCE REGIME
SLOWING THE SFC FRONT AND WASHING IT OUT. THUS...THERE WONT BE MUCH
OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THE TROF AXIS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD GUST
POTENTIAL AS MIXING ALLOWS 20-25 KT MOMENTUM TRANSFERS. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY AS A TIGHT LLVL THICKNESS GRADIENT MOVES IN...BUT
BECOMES MODIFIED WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED S/LY FLOW...ESP OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH THIS WARMING
MODIFICATION...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN ALONG WITH A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTION...WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL MOST
LOCALS. THIS COULD BE A TAD LOW THO IN GOOD INSOLATION.
OVERNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND THE AREA BECOMES LESS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAKENING ULVL LOW. SKY COVER IS NOT WHOLLY CERTAIN ATTM...BUT MOST
INDICATIONS ARE A CI DECK WILL MOVE IN AND OFFSET MAX COOLING BY A
FEW DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE LOWER MTN THICKNESSES...CLOUD COVER WILL
MOSTLY ELIMINATE A FROST CONCERN EVEN ACROSS THE MTN TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS SOLUTION INDICATING THE
SURFACE WAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF/NAM/CMC KEEP THE WAVE
TIED CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THAT SAID...ALL SOLUTIONS
CONVERGE ON SUFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
EJECTING UPPER JET MAX. BEYOND THAT...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST TAKING ROOT OVER
THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE START OF A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THUS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY REMAINING 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
SPREADING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA ACROSS THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PRESENT A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROF. GUIDANCE HINTS AT
POTENTIAL ACTIVATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LEADING SHOWERS/MCS
SPILLING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEREFORE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS RANGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTS FURTHER EAST WITH A SERIES OF
POTENTIAL EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS EVENTS PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF
SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY MIDWEEK
SETTING UP THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON BEING AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THREAT OF ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...
SOME SCT LOW VFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. STILL EXPECT GUSTY SW WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WITH
GUSTY NLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...DRYING CONDITIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRI
THROUGH MON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH/SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LEADING TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST.
UPPER CI CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD LLVL STCU AT MOST LOCALES. SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH NO UPPER
SUPPORT...THUS LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE WEAK LINES OF -SHRA
OVER THE ERN ZONES. CURRENT SLIGHT POPS HAVE THIS IN CHECK. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN HELD UP WITH CLOUD COVER / MIXING...WITH LOW END GUSTS
SHOWING UP AT KCLT. TDDS ARE REMAINING LARGE ENUF TO PRECLUDE A FG
THREAT WITH SOME LOW LYING AREAS IN THE NRN FTHILLS BEING THE
EXCEPTION. WILL ADJ HR/LY TEMPS AND TDS A BIT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM WITH
LITTLE FANFARE. THERE IS A WEAK LINE OF -SHRA MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING REMAINING IN THE NW PIEDMONT. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS
SITUATION MUCH BETTER THAN THE OTHER HIRES MODELS AND THERE IS NO
NEED TO JUMP OUTSIDE OF ITS GENERAL GUIDANCE. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJ
DOWN INTO THE ISOL RANGE WHICH SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MASSIVE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PULL NE. THIS
WILL GENERALLY LEAVE THE FCST AREA IN A MODEST SUBSIDENCE REGIME
SLOWING THE SFC FRONT AND WASHING IT OUT. THUS...THERE WONT BE MUCH
OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THE TROF AXIS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD GUST
POTENTIAL AS MIXING ALLOWS 20-25 KT MOMENTUM TRANSFERS. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY AS A TIGHT LLVL THICKNESS GRADIENT MOVES IN...BUT
BECOMES MODIFIED WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED S/LY FLOW...ESP OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH THIS WARMING
MODIFICATION...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN ALONG WITH A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTION...WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL MOST
LOCALS. THIS COULD BE A TAD LOW THO IN GOOD INSOLATION.
OVERNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND THE AREA BECOMES LESS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAKENING ULVL LOW. SKY COVER IS NOT WHOLLY CERTAIN ATTM...BUT MOST
INDICATIONS ARE A CI DECK WILL MOVE IN AND OFFSET MAX COOLING BY A
FEW DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE LOWER MTN THICKNESSES...CLOUD COVER WILL
MOSTLY ELIMINATE A FROST CONCERN EVEN ACROSS THE MTN TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS SOLUTION INDICATING THE
SURFACE WAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF/NAM/CMC KEEP THE WAVE
TIED CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THAT SAID...ALL SOLUTIONS
CONVERGE ON SUFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
EJECTING UPPER JET MAX. BEYOND THAT...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST TAKING ROOT OVER
THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE START OF A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THUS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY REMAINING 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
SPREADING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA ACROSS THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PRESENT A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROF. GUIDANCE HINTS AT
POTENTIAL ACTIVATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LEADING SHOWERS/MCS
SPILLING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEREFORE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS RANGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTS FURTHER EAST WITH A SERIES OF
POTENTIAL EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS EVENTS PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF
SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY MIDWEEK
SETTING UP THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON BEING AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP THIS AM...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
PERSIST VFR AS ULVL CLOUDS CROSS AND REMAIN RELATIVELY THIN. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SW/LY IN CROSS GRADIENT FLOW WITH MODERATE GUST
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEAK W/LY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...ALL TAF SITES COULD GO IN AND OUT OF VFR/MVFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH VFR MOST LIKELY. KAVL SHOULD SCT OUT WITH
EARLIER FROPA. IMPROVING CONDS DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE
WITH SCT/BKN CI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED NW/LY AT
KAVL DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER END GUSTS THERE AND AT KHKY...WHILE
THE PIEDMONT SITES WILL SEE MORE HEATING/MIXING LEADING TO MODERATE
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...DRYING CONDITIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FRI
THROUGH MON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z
KCLT HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD GET NEAR KPBI THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED THE SOUTH AT KAPF...AND A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES EARLIER THIS MORNING TO TAKE OUT MENTION
OF SMOKE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WILDFIRES IN COLLIER AND GLADES
COUNTIES HAVE MOSTLY BEEN CONTAINED WITH NO REPORTS OF SMOKE
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE
MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT STILL VERY DRY ALOFT WITH
PWAT INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
LESS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS SO THE FORECAST OF MOSTLY
INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING DEVELOPMENT AROUND 18Z AND PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS BY 15Z AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY GET NEAR KPBI THIS MORNING AS STREAMER SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO PUT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2014/
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
TODAY...BEFORE EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BE DRY TODAY BEFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO SWING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. SO SCATTERED POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHICH COULD GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS.
MORE DETAIL DISCUSSION ON THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DRY FOR NEXT WEEK. THE PWAT VALUES
WILL ALSO BE AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT
WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT OF 1.6
TO 1.7 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE
SWINGING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 7 FEET BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH. THESE NORTHEAST
SWELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST
COAST AIRPORTS FOR THIS SATURDAY.
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIA 92 91 - 1896
FLL 91 91 - 1920
PBI 90 91 - 1986
MIA BEACH 90 91 - 1964
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 87 73 90 / 10 30 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 88 76 91 / 10 20 20 40
MIAMI 76 88 75 92 / 10 20 20 40
NAPLES 73 87 72 85 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
442 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE
MARITIMES ON MONDAY PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
445PM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ENTER
NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 7 OR 8 PM. HRRR INDICATES THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
THIS EVENING. STILL A CHANCE OF FOG LATER THIS EVENING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH DOWNEAST MAINE AND TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. FINALLY SEEING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER NH
AND WESTERN MAINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN
A FEW SPOTS. STRATUS AND FOG WILL CREEP BACK AFTER DARK ONCE AGAIN
HOWEVER AS INVERSION DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
PRETTY WELL INSULATED IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING MORE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH. ONLY EXPECTING A
TENTH OR SO OF ADDITIONAL QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE
MOUNTAINS BEING THE BEST BET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW IN SW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA...
HOWEVER AM EXPECTING ANY VERY LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AS WEST WINDS
BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK. WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES AND WSW WINDS
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND EXPECT THE
WARMEST READINGS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT WE WILL SEE
CLEARING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH A SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT DEEPENS AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT WITH A
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS ALL MEANS SATURDAY WILL BE WARM
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S BUT A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY TUESDAY A DRY NW FLOW DEVELOPS AND A SLOW RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT WILL CONTINUE THRU
MIDWEEK AS A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR 4TH/5TH PERIODS AND THEN
STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CURRENT CLEARING WILL LAST UNTIL DARK AND AS SOON AS
INVERSION IS ESTABLISHED AGAIN EXPECT 1/4SM/VV001 AT ALL
TERMINALS. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY OR DROP TO LIFR
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL/GROUND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STRATUS AND
FOG TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND 10-12Z WITH AN
INCREASE IN GUSTY WEST WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR LATE SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CONVERTED TO JUST ADVISORY
FOR SEAS AS WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED. SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE WILL
DROP BELOW CRITERIA AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND WILL BE ALLOWED TO
DROP OUT OF THE ADVISORY WHILE THE OTHER LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SEE
HIGH SEAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY
BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL NW WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REACH MINIMAL SCA
LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED PERIOD SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. WILL BE
WARM THIS FRIDAY IN SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A SW WIND...BUT EXPECT
MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 35% ALL AREAS. EXPECT MORE RAIN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ151-153-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ150-152.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... HANES
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY... THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID-LEVELS...IS BEGINNING
TO FILTER ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER OUR REGION SLOWLY
VEERS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
60S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...BUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST
OF THE AREA. THE COASTAL PAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME WEAK MLCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG. DESPITE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
STRONGLY INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR RUN SHOWS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS AS JUST
EAST OF SCOTLAND/HOKE/HARNETT COUNTIES BY 18Z...BUT THAT MAY EVEN BE
TOO FAR WEST BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING...LOWERING BOTH OVER
THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ALL EAST OF I-95. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 24-28KT OVER THE
PIEDMONT LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHT...SFC FRONT EXITS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY. WLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAK SO MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
A BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW TO THE MID-UPPER
50S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK
S/W IN THE MID LEVELS WILL APPROACH FROM TEH WEST AND CROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CLOUD
COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON
FAVORABLE TIMING...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SE COUNTIES. DETERRENT TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 30M BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING MID LEVEL S/W AND LOW-MID
FLOW VEERING TO A MORE NW DIRECTION WILL AID TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A DRY AIR
MASS...TEMPS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND
AROUND 50 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY LOBE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST STATES SAT...
YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUDS FOR CENTRAL NC... PARTICULARLY
EARLY IN THE DAY... GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW 5 000 FT. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE STABILIZING AND DRYING MID LEVELS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND A SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE (EXTENDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST) WITH DIFFLUENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER... LEADING TO JUST A FEW FLAT DIURNAL CLOUDS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INITIALLY ORIENTED W-E IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD (PROPELLED BY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF A DEEPENING VORTEX OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES) TOWARD NC SAT
NIGHT BUT STILL HOLDING TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME. THICKNESSES
START SAT ABOUT 15 M BELOW NORMAL BUT RECOVER NICELY THROUGH THE
DAY... AND SHOULD DROP LESS THAN USUAL SAT NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS ALL SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 71-75 AND
LOWS 48-54.
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: A WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
EVOLVE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE SHARPENING W-E FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING
ACROSS VA... AS THE MID LEVEL VORTEX CROSSES NEW ENGLAND WHILE
DEEPENING IN BOTH PRESSURE AND VERTICAL EXTENT. STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WSW (SURFACE) AND WEST (925-850 MB) WILL RESULT
IN WARM/DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS... WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25 MPH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE
ADVERSE EFFECTS ON FIRE BEHAVIOR. OTHERWISE... EXPECT JUST SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED FLAT DIURNAL CLOUDS. THE NAM DEPICTS WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NC... PRODUCING
LIGHT AND PATCHY SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE TOO DRY AND THE 800-700 MB MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP... SO WILL LEAVE THE SUNDAY FORECAST
DRY. WARM HIGHS OF 79-83. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUN NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES MORE NW-SE ORIENTED WHILE THE MID
LEVEL LOW DIGS JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE GFS PUSHING THE BACKDOOR FRONT WELL TO THE SSW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CWA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS... A DEPARTURE FROM THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH KEPT THE FRONT JUST TO OUR NE SUN NIGHT. SUCH DETAILS CANNOT
BE DEFINITIVELY RESOLVED AT THIS RANGE... SO WILL OPT FOR A MIDDLE-
OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION AND BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NE CWA BUT NOT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH... A REASONABLE COMPROMISE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.
EXPECT A TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NRN/ERN CWA
SUN NIGHT. LOWS FROM AROUND 50 FAR NE TO 57 SW.
FOR MON THROUGH THU: NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION MON
INTO WED AS BROAD RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... WITH THE
WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE HOLDING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE NC. THE
ECMWF/GFS AGREE ON WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER NC WITH ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE
CWA... AND WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WILL BUMP UP
POPS MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST DURING THESE PERIODS.
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFT EASTWARD MID-
LATE WEEK... SHIFTING THE MEAN MID LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE MID-
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST STATES... AND GRADUALLY KICKING THE FRONTAL ZONE
BACK TO OUR NE BY THU. WILL EXTEND SMALL POPS INTO WED... THEN TREND
DOWN TO DRY WEATHER THU WITH WARMING TEMPS AS WELL GET FULLY BACK
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH STABILIZING MID LEVELS. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECK OF
MIC AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NC. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR AND SHOWERS TO
KFAY AND KRWI BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT LOOKING AS FAVORABLE AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERN BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY..POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO AREAS JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....WITH
SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
DRIER AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE MID-LEVELS...IS BEGINNING
TO FILTER ACROSS THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER OUR REGION SLOWLY
VEERS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER
60S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...BUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST
OF THE AREA. THE COASTAL PAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME WEAK MLCAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG. DESPITE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
STRONGLY INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR RUN SHOWS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS AS JUST
EAST OF SCOTLAND/HOKE/HARNETT COUNTIES BY 18Z...BUT THAT MAY EVEN BE
TOO FAR WEST BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING...LOWERING BOTH OVER
THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT...KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ALL EAST OF I-95. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 24-28KT OVER THE
PIEDMONT LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHT...SFC FRONT EXITS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY. WLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WEAK SO MAY SEE CLOUDS LINGER
A BIT LONGER THAN NORMAL. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW TO THE MID-UPPER
50S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK
S/W IN THE MID LEVELS WILL APPROACH FROM TEH WEST AND CROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE CLOUD
COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON
FAVORABLE TIMING...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SE COUNTIES. DETERRENT TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVERAGE 30M BELOW
NORMAL. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING MID LEVEL S/W AND LOW-MID
FLOW VEERING TO A MORE NW DIRECTION WILL AID TO DIMINISH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A DRY AIR
MASS...TEMPS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND
AROUND 50 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST SATURDAY... THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE S/W IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC... OTHER THAN POSSIBLY
SPREADING/HOLDING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
STABLE WITH A NICE CAPPING INVERSION... WITH MAYBE SOME FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 72-76 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA IN A NW TO SE/E
FASHION (WARMEST SE/E). LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S... WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A NORTHERN STREAM S/W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SEND A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING... ALMOST IN
A BACKDOOR FASHION... WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FEATURE. THUS... WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGH AND SHOW TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WITH SOME MID 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTH AS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 1400 METERS. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 50S.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA... WHILE POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE TRACK ALONG THIS
FEATURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE WEST. SUCH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW ARE HARD TO TRACK
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. THUS... WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WRT TEMPS... THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT (WHICH MAY SHIFT BACK AND FORTH WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES)
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL TREND THE WARMEST
TEMPS SW AND COOLEST NE. THIS YIELD HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
NE TO 80S SW. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECK OF
MIC AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NC. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR AND SHOWERS TO
KFAY AND KRWI BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT LOOKING AS FAVORABLE AT
THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERN BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY..POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO AREAS JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....WITH
SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
137 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STALLED OUT FRONT PERSISTS FROM FLORIDA TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWFA AS
EXPECTED. LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THE CWFA...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THAT LEAD. ALTHOUGH SKIES HAVE
MOSTLY CLEARED...CIRRUS IS RETURNING FROM THE SW. EXPECT THIS CIRRUS
AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS A
LITTLE HIGHER IS SOME LOCATIONS...IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND LATEST GUIDANCE.
AS OF 1030 AM...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE TN BORDER AND SRN AND ERN CWFA. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN
CLEAR BY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS SH/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH A WAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND WHICH KEEPS ONLY A BRIEF ISOLATED SHRA FOR
THE EXTREME SRN CWFA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT GUSTY
SW WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BY
BLENDING IN LATEST GUIDANCE.
AS OF 630 AM EDT...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST.
UPPER CI CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD LLVL STCU AT MOST LOCALES. SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH NO UPPER
SUPPORT...THUS LITTLE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE WEAK LINES OF -SHRA
OVER THE ERN ZONES. CURRENT SLIGHT POPS HAVE THIS IN CHECK. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN HELD UP WITH CLOUD COVER / MIXING...WITH LOW END GUSTS
SHOWING UP AT KCLT. TDDS ARE REMAINING LARGE ENUF TO PRECLUDE A FG
THREAT WITH SOME LOW LYING AREAS IN THE NRN FTHILLS BEING THE
EXCEPTION. WILL ADJ HR/LY TEMPS AND TDS A BIT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWFA ATTM WITH
LITTLE FANFARE. THERE IS A WEAK LINE OF -SHRA MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NRN FOOTHILLS AND WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING REMAINING IN THE NW PIEDMONT. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS
SITUATION MUCH BETTER THAN THE OTHER HIRES MODELS AND THERE IS NO
NEED TO JUMP OUTSIDE OF ITS GENERAL GUIDANCE. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJ
DOWN INTO THE ISOL RANGE WHICH SHOULD WORK OUT PRETTY GOOD.
THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MASSIVE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PULL NE. THIS
WILL GENERALLY LEAVE THE FCST AREA IN A MODEST SUBSIDENCE REGIME
SLOWING THE SFC FRONT AND WASHING IT OUT. THUS...THERE WONT BE MUCH
OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THE TROF AXIS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD GUST
POTENTIAL AS MIXING ALLOWS 20-25 KT MOMENTUM TRANSFERS. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY AS A TIGHT LLVL THICKNESS GRADIENT MOVES IN...BUT
BECOMES MODIFIED WARMER WITH THE CONTINUED S/LY FLOW...ESP OUTSIDE
THE MTNS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH THIS WARMING
MODIFICATION...SO A BLEND WAS TAKEN ALONG WITH A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTION...WHICH GIVES MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL MOST
LOCALS. THIS COULD BE A TAD LOW THO IN GOOD INSOLATION.
OVERNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND THE AREA BECOMES LESS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAKENING ULVL LOW. SKY COVER IS NOT WHOLLY CERTAIN ATTM...BUT MOST
INDICATIONS ARE A CI DECK WILL MOVE IN AND OFFSET MAX COOLING BY A
FEW DEGREES. EVEN WITH THE LOWER MTN THICKNESSES...CLOUD COVER WILL
MOSTLY ELIMINATE A FROST CONCERN EVEN ACROSS THE MTN TOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS SOLUTION INDICATING THE
SURFACE WAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF/NAM/CMC KEEP THE WAVE
TIED CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THAT SAID...ALL SOLUTIONS
CONVERGE ON SUFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THANKS TO PROXIMITY OF THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
EJECTING UPPER JET MAX. BEYOND THAT...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST TAKING ROOT OVER
THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE START OF A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THUS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE NO
MENTIONABLE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY REMAINING 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
SPREADING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK WAA ACROSS THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PRESENT A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROF. GUIDANCE HINTS AT
POTENTIAL ACTIVATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LEADING SHOWERS/MCS
SPILLING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEREFORE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS RANGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTS FURTHER EAST WITH A SERIES OF
POTENTIAL EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS EVENTS PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ABOVE MENTIONED GULF
SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY MIDWEEK
SETTING UP THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON BEING AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...FEW STRATOCU AND BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT
BKN CIRRUS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING
WSW THEN NW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WIND AFTER DAYBREAK BECOMES WSW
AROUND NOON. BKN CIRRUS CONTINUES FRI MORNING WITH FEW060 DEVELOPING
AROUND NOON.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT. KAVL THE MAIN EXCEPTION WITH
GUSTY NLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...THEN
CONTINUING THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...DRYING CONDITIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH TUE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LAGGING BEHIND THIS UPPER LOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MOST THE
PRECIPITATION SO FAR TODAY HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKE SHORE.
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE MINNESOTA BORDER...SO
WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO RESUME. WITH SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING...WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES DO NOT BEGIN UNTIL YOU
REACH NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA...BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO THIS AREA...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THANKS TO KICKER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING BACK TO THE MINNESOTA
BORDER AND A SURFACE TROUGH STILL TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...PROGGED SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED TO INCLUDE
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRYING ALOFT DOES
PROGRESSIVELY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT SO THINK WE COULD FINALLY SEE A
DRY PERIOD TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER...WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK GRADUALLY
RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
FRIDAY...DECENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 18Z AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
00Z SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE
AND ONLY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA PRIOR TO 18Z. THEN WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE
EAST OF THE LAKE SHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ML CAPES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
DEPICTED YESTERDAY...BUT STILL STRUGGLE TO SQUEAK OUT 50-75 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS BETTER OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
COMPARED TO OUR REGION...SO THINK WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF
THUNDER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEFORE THE
RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. GOES FROM NW TO SW.
EARLY IN PERIOD...STILL DEALING WITH UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA AND
ONE MORE WEAK DISTURBANCE. ON SATURDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-DAY OR AFTERNOON SHOWERS. BRIEF DRY
PERIOD THEN AS SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS STATE.
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD REGION MIDWEEK. GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT AND LOCATION...THOUGH GFS A BIT FASTER.
WARM FRONT MAKES NORTH PUSH INTO STATE ON WED. ELEVATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED AS RIPPLES IN SW FLOW MOVE OVER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT. FRONTAL POSITION WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPS...ESP NEXT THURS. WILL SIDE WITH SLOWER ECMWF FOR NOW...AS
COLD LAKE MICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN NORTH PUSH...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
TEMP FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM A BLEND OF BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2014
SLOW MOVING PESKY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION TO THE
EAST TONIGHT. BUT UNTIL THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NE WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH
THE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE AT
TIMES. THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS...AND CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR AND MVFR RANGE.
CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE. MORE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MPC