Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/29/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STACKED OVER
NORTHWESTERN KS WITH SOUTHERN END OF WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION PRECIP
SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHEAST CO. FARTHER WEST...LAPS SURFACE
PRESSURE DATA SHOWS WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR KPUB...WHICH
HAS CREATED LIGHTER WINDS OVER MUCH OF PUEBLO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS IN GENERAL WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH CONVECTION ENDING AND STRONG SURFACE
GRADIENT LACKING...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEGUN TO VERY SLOWLY DECREASE
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE 40-
45 KT RANGE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY
PEAKED...AND GIVEN LACK OF OBSERVED 50 KT GUSTS...WILL CANCEL THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...STILL
SOME -SHSN OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THOUGH WEB CAMS SUGGEST
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR LOW VISIBILITY...AT LEAST AT
PASS LEVEL.
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SOME HIGHER POPS
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP INCREASE -SHSN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY BREEZY AS STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE PERSIST. EXPECTING ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF WINDS/CLOUDS
TO KEEP PLAINS FROM A HARD FREEZE...THOUGH MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S OR COLDER.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO ERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...KEEPING STRONG NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ALL AREAS BY MID
MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE MOST LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
MON AFTERNOON...SUSPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL...WITH BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKING OK FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN QUEUED UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS TWO SEPARATE
PERIODS OF WEATHER TYPES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PINWHEEL ABOUT THE US CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THU...BEFORE FINALLY
EJECTING TO THE NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP
VERY BRISK AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE STATE INTO
THU...AS WELL AS A DAILY SHOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE CWA. AS THE
LOW LINGERS...LOBES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM AND
BRING PERIODICALLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THESE WINDOWS IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 30S TO 40S FOR THE MTS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS THROUGH
THU...WITH THE BEST SHOT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS
COMING TUE AFTN...AND AGAIN WED AFTN AND EVE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS HINT THAT BY FRI THE
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION INTO THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THAT THIS
FAR OUT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. BY SUNDAY PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN
END. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
SHIFTS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR FRI...THEN 70S FOR BOTH SAT
AND SUN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS
AT KCOS AND KALS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...THOUGH W-NW
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON
MON...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS ALL TERMINALS BY 16Z...THEN A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT BY
20Z. MAY SEE SOME VIRGA/-SHRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS DRIFT TOWARD KCOS
AND KALS AFTER 20Z AS WELL...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...-SHSN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS...WHERE AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. ON MON...SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP WITH PEAKS BECOMING OBSCURED MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z.
OVER THE PLAINS...-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY 02Z. WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1203 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
WILL LET WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE FOR AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS WEB CAMS SUGGEST ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING AS OF NOON...AND LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
APPEARS CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED BAND OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS
AT KLAA. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER THREAT OF STRONG GUSTS AS MAIN BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SOME REPORTS OF LOW VIS IN BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT WITH RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WON`T ISSUE
ANY DUST HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
MAINLY VFR AT TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA
BRUSH BY JUST EAST OF KCOS IN THE 18Z-20Z TIME PERIOD. MAIN STORY
TODAY WILL BE STRONG N-NW WINDS...AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT GUSTS IN
THE 35-45 KT RANGE AT KCOS UNTIL 00Z-02Z...30-40 KTS AT KALS AND
KPUB. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG
W-NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z-16Z.
OVER THE MTS...PRECIP SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ON THE PLAINS...BAND OF -SHRA/-TSRA AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH 22Z...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
KS BY 00Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ095>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
APPEARS CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED BAND OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS
AT KLAA. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER THREAT OF STRONG GUSTS AS MAIN BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SOME REPORTS OF LOW VIS IN BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT WITH RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WON`T ISSUE
ANY DUST HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
MAINLY VFR AT TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA
BRUSH BY JUST EAST OF KCOS IN THE 18Z-20Z TIME PERIOD. MAIN STORY
TODAY WILL BE STRONG N-NW WINDS...AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT GUSTS IN
THE 35-45 KT RANGE AT KCOS UNTIL 00Z-02Z...30-40 KTS AT KALS AND
KPUB. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG
W-NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z-16Z.
OVER THE MTS...PRECIP SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ON THE PLAINS...BAND OF -SHRA/-TSRA AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH 22Z...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
KS BY 00Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ095>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-060-061-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1044 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
APPEARS CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED BAND OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS
AT KLAA. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER THREAT OF STRONG GUSTS AS MAIN BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SOME REPORTS OF LOW VIS IN BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT WITH RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WON`T ISSUE
ANY DUST HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
KALS...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH 16Z
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL. STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.
KCOS...LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 14Z WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS
TO MVFR. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN AT THE TERMINAL. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY 17Z.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.
KPUB...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 16Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL
DROP TO MVFR TO IFR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ095>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-060-061-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
515 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
KALS...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH 16Z
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL. STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.
KCOS...LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 14Z WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS
TO MVFR. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN AT THE TERMINAL. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY 17Z.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.
KPUB...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 16Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL
DROP TO MVFR TO IFR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-060-061-066-
068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
955 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2014
...SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A large upper level trough is currently located over the central
US, with a ridge axis to its east stretching from the eastern
Great Lakes southward into the Carolinas. Under the trough, a 988
mb surface low is centered over eastern Nebraska, with a warm
front stretching eastward into the Ohio Valley region and a cold
front stretching southward along the Mississippi River. In the
warm sector between these fronts, severe thunderstorms have
developed this evening, with numerous supercells and associated
tornadoes in MS and northwestern AL. These cells have started to
congeal into a multi-cellular system, and will likely develop into
more of a squall line overnight as they approach the NW edge of
our CWA. High-resolution models such the HRRR show this
feature entering our far NW counties between 09-12Z Tuesday. As a
result, heavy rain, potentially severe winds, isolated tornadoes,
and frequent lightning could impact this area near dawn.
Otherwise, precipitation should not occur in the rest of our CWA
before 12Z tomorrow morning. Warm and humid conditions will prevail
overnight across the region, with lows ranging from the lower 70s in
the west to the upper 60s in eastern counties.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will begin to deteriorate
this evening bringing low cigs and visbys to the area. Areas of
fog are likely throughout the CWA beginning as early as 03 UTC in
ECP. Thunderstorms will arrive from the NW at DHN and ECP around
dawn, some of which could be severe. There storms will spread over
the area throughout the day keeping ceilings low and southerly
winds gusty.
&&
.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
An unsettled pattern will continue through the short term period.
The large mid-upper level low will slowly translate from near Iowa
northeastward to the Great Lakes area by Wednesday night. The
associated surface cold front will approach and eventually push into
our CWA. This slow pattern will keep a severe weather threat through
the period. SPC has our CWA highlighted for a slight risk of severe
weather each day and our locally run CAM models show about a 50
percent probability for severe TSTMS over our western zones Tuesday.
The main threat would be damaging winds based on the convective
mode, but hail and tornadoes would also be possible based on the
steep lapse rates and low-level shear profiles respectively.
Additionally, there is a concern for flash flooding at least for our
western zones and the flash flood watch in place will remain
unchanged for now. PoPs will be justifiably above climo with a west
to east taper for most periods.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The latest GFS and ECMWF solutions continue in to be in fairly good
agreement WRT the upper level pattern. The stacked low pressure
system will be over the Great Lakes Region with a broad deep trough
roughly from the continental divide to the east coast to start the
period. A potent shortwave will further sharpen the trough as it
drops from the central plains into the southeast Thursday night into
Friday. As the shortwave moves east the mid/upper level flow becomes
zonal by the end of the weekend. Weak ridging returns to the area to
begin the next week. At the surface, a weak front will cut through
our CWA Thursday and push to our east by Friday. A wave is forecast
to develop on the boundary over the northeast Gulf on Friday. This
along with the approaching shortwave and increasing deep layer
moisture will keep rain chances in the forecast Friday. High
pressure builds in with dry weather for the local region over the
weekend and early next week. Temps will be below seasonal levels
Friday in the wake of the front with max temps in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Otherwise, temps will be at or just above climo through
the period.
.Marine...
Southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue across the coastal
waters at least through Tuesday. Tuesday night and into Wednesday
winds and seas are now expected to elevate to advisory levels. Winds
will veer from west to east as a cold front passes through later on
Wednesday into Wednesday night with diminishing winds and seas.
.Fire Weather...
Moisture levels will remain high through the upcoming week, so no
fire weather concerns are expected.
.Hydrology...
Locally heavy rainfall is expected this week beginning late tonight
and ending sometime on Friday. Rainfall totals for the week will
range from 4-6 inches in the Western Florida Panhandle and Southeast
Alabama, with higher amounts possible. Elsewhere 2-4 inches of rain
is expected across the remainder of the CWA. Most area rivers have
crested and have begun falling. However, but if these forecast
rainfall totals occur, we expect many area rivers to be back in
minor flood stage by the end of the week.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 85 70 86 63 / 10 40 40 50 40
Panama City 71 81 71 80 64 / 20 70 60 60 40
Dothan 70 85 71 83 58 / 50 80 60 70 40
Albany 69 86 71 84 60 / 10 70 50 60 50
Valdosta 67 88 70 86 64 / 10 30 30 50 40
Cross City 67 86 69 86 66 / 10 20 30 30 30
Apalachicola 70 80 73 80 65 / 10 50 40 60 40
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday through
Wednesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Tuesday through Wednesday
afternoon for Baker-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Early-Miller-
Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.
AL...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday
afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD/LAHR
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...BLOCK/HELLER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA
OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE BOUNDARIES CONVERGE BUT THESE WILL REMAIN
WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR
REGION AND FORECAST TO BE A LATE START AROUND 20-21Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. THE CHANGES WERE MADE DUE TO INSPECTION OF THE 12Z
SOUNDING AND RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE
WIND L/V EARLY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARIES
MERGE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR
REGION AND FORECAST TO BE A LATE START AROUND 20-21Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. THE CHANGES WERE MADE DUE TO INSPECTION OF THE 12Z
SOUNDING AND RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE
WIND L/V EARLY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARIES
MERGE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 73 85 75 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE
WIND L/V EARLY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARIES
MERGE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 73 85 75 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
625 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR AND NARRE MODELS
SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING ALONG FL GULF COAST AND FL ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG/CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AGAIN. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZES TO MOVE INLAND REACHING THE INTERIOR
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHANCE TO
CHANCE AFTN/EVEN POPS AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE POSSIBLY
ENHANCING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE COLLISION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES WELL INLAND AND AROUND 80 COAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MONDAY WILL
FLATTEN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST...SO PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH MAINLY SEABREEZE AND SMALL SCALE INTERACTIONS AS THE
TRIGGERS. WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 80S
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF/GFS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SE GA WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION SATURDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO WILL KEEP
POPS CHANCE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS
SATURDAY NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
PROGGED TO BE STRETCHING OUT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...DO NOT
EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LIKE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCSH FOR GNV/VQQ. ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR VQQ/GNV LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
A S TO SE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
FORMATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REACHED AT THREE RIVER ESTATES ON
THE SUWANNEE RIVER...THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON SEVERAL OTHER NE FL/SE GA
RIVERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 88 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 10
SSI 79 67 80 67 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 88 63 89 67 / 20 10 20 20
SGJ 81 67 84 67 / 10 10 20 20
GNV 89 66 88 65 / 30 20 20 20
OCF 89 65 89 65 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 73 85 75 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
249 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR AND NARRE MODELS
SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING ALONG FL GULF COAST AND FL ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG/CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AGAIN. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZES TO MOVE INLAND REACHING THE INTERIOR
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHANCE TO
CHANCE AFTN/EVEN POPS AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE POSSIBLY
ENHANCING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE COLLISION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES WELL INLAND AND AROUND 80 COAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MONDAY WILL
FLATTEN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST...SO PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH MAINLY SEABREEZE AND SMALL SCALE INTERACTIONS AS THE
TRIGGERS. WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 80S
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF/GFS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SE GA WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION SATURDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO WILL KEEP
POPS CHANCE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS
SATURDAY NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
PROGGED TO BE STRETCHING OUT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...DO NOT
EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LIKE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. PATCHES OF MVFR BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE FL TERMINALS 08-12Z. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTN...WILL USE VCSH FOR GNV/VQQ. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS FOR
NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
A S TO SE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
FORMATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REACHED AT THREE RIVER ESTATES ON
THE SUWANNEE RIVER...THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON SEVERAL OTHER NE FL/SE GA
RIVERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 88 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 10
SSI 79 67 80 67 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 88 63 89 67 / 20 10 20 20
SGJ 81 67 84 67 / 10 10 20 20
GNV 89 66 88 65 / 30 20 20 20
OCF 89 65 89 65 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
110 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR.
DRYLINE IS CONTINUING TO MIX EASTWARD...CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-135
CORRIDOR. SURFACE HEATING IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...IN
CONCERT WITH 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...OWING TO COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SINCE BEST
UPPER FORCING IS PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...QUESTIONS ARISE
WHETHER ENOUGH DRYLINE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ACTIVITY TO
FORM...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR. IF A FEW STORMS CAN
MANAGE TO FORM...QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. COULD ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL CAPE...AND STRONG LOW TO DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DRYLINE
ADVANCEMENT QUITE A BIT...SO THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS ARRIVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE DRY-LINE...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ROBUST AND
HIGHER END SEVERE EPISODE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY-LINE SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR
EXPECT TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
ERODED MORE QUICKLY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE FOR MORE BUOYANT INITIAL UPDRAFTS WHERE SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADIC STORMS BESIDES LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE DRY-LINE SHOULD PUSH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z-23Z.
THERE IS CONCERN BEHIND THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A DRIER AND DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE. BESIDES A WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AREAS OF HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST AND PERHAPS SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY
REPORTING SOME OF THIS AS OF VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING
DIURNALLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTING
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BROADEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STILL ANTICIPATING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...AS A
DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST. CONSEQUENTLY...HELD ONTO VCTS WORDING AT KCNU.
OTHERWISE...STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. LATER
TONIGHT...MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SITS AND
SPINS NORTH OF THE REGION.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY-LINE.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH GFDI VALUES AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO
MONDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 49 70 46 / 60 10 20 20
HUTCHINSON 78 47 69 44 / 40 10 20 20
NEWTON 77 47 68 45 / 60 10 20 20
ELDORADO 79 48 70 46 / 90 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 49 72 47 / 80 10 20 20
RUSSELL 75 44 65 42 / 10 20 20 30
GREAT BEND 75 45 66 42 / 10 10 20 30
SALINA 78 47 67 44 / 40 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 78 47 68 44 / 40 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 80 51 73 47 / 100 10 20 20
CHANUTE 79 50 71 46 / 100 20 20 20
IOLA 78 50 70 46 / 100 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 80 50 72 47 / 100 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068-082-083.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
620 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS ARRIVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE DRY-LINE...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ROBUST AND
HIGHER END SEVERE EPISODE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY-LINE SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR
EXPECT TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
ERODED MORE QUICKLY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE FOR MORE BUOYANT INITIAL UPDRAFTS WHERE SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADIC STORMS BESIDES LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE DRY-LINE SHOULD PUSH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z-23Z.
THERE IS CONCERN BEHIND THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A DRIER AND DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE. BESIDES A WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AREAS OF HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST AND PERHAPS SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY
REPORTING SOME OF THIS AS OF VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING
DIURNALLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTING
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BROADEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES FROM THE
WEST TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS OVER 35KTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT FOR THIS
EVENING AND VEER MORE OUT TO THE WEST.
JAKUB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY-LINE.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH GFDI VALUES AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO
MONDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 49 70 46 / 40 10 20 20
HUTCHINSON 78 47 69 44 / 40 10 20 20
NEWTON 77 47 68 45 / 40 10 20 20
ELDORADO 79 48 70 46 / 50 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 49 72 47 / 50 10 20 20
RUSSELL 75 44 65 42 / 20 20 20 30
GREAT BEND 75 45 66 42 / 10 10 20 30
SALINA 78 47 67 44 / 40 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 78 47 68 44 / 40 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 80 51 73 47 / 60 10 20 20
CHANUTE 79 50 71 46 / 60 20 20 20
IOLA 78 50 70 46 / 60 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 80 50 72 47 / 60 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS ARRIVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE DRY-LINE...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ROBUST AND
HIGHER END SEVERE EPISODE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY-LINE SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR
EXPECT TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
ERODED MORE QUICKLY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE FOR MORE BUOYANT INITIAL UPDRAFTS WHERE SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADIC STORMS BESIDES LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE DRY-LINE SHOULD PUSH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z-23Z.
THERE IS CONCERN BEHIND THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A DRIER AND DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE. BESIDES A WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AREAS OF HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST AND PERHAPS SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY
REPORTING SOME OF THIS AS OF VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING
DIURNALLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTING
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BROADEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MAIN CONCERNS: STRONG WINDS...MORNING MVFR CIGS...THUNDERSTORMS.
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY TRY TO
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT
HUT...ICT...CNU WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TS MENTION
AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FROM 09Z ONWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AREA-WIDE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY EVENING.
JMC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY-LINE.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH GFDI VALUES AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO
MONDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 49 70 46 / 30 10 20 20
HUTCHINSON 78 47 69 44 / 20 10 20 20
NEWTON 77 47 68 45 / 30 10 20 20
ELDORADO 79 48 70 46 / 40 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 49 72 47 / 40 10 20 20
RUSSELL 75 44 65 42 / 20 20 20 30
GREAT BEND 75 45 66 42 / 10 10 20 30
SALINA 78 47 67 44 / 30 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 78 47 68 44 / 20 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 80 51 73 47 / 60 10 20 20
CHANUTE 79 50 71 46 / 60 20 20 20
IOLA 78 50 70 46 / 60 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 80 50 72 47 / 60 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
00Z TOP sounding showed an elevated mixed layer capping off surface
based convection. The dryline has retreated west this evening
across western Kansas. Therefore have cut back on the
precipitation chances until after midnight where chances will
continue to increase after 09Z. Strengthening low level jet as
well as isentropic lift in the 305K to 310k layer and increasing
ascent ahead of the upper trough moving across the Rockies should
kick off storms in the overnight hours. HRRR continues to develop
convection from southwest and south central Kansas and then move
it northeast into the cwa in the 09Z-11Z time period. Current
forecast accounts for this scenario very well.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Focus on the period is the isolated severe storm potential early
this evening, followed by scattered severe storms being possible
early Sunday morning and afternoon.
A strong and windy afternoon across northeast Kansas as temperatures
warmed into the lower 80s. Wind gusts ahead of a deepening lee
trough ranged between 30 and 40 mph during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Dryline has setup across western Kansas as moisture
pulls northward, noted by upper 50s to near 60 degrees in central
Kansas, dropping to the low 20s in far western Kansas.
For late this afternoon into early this evening, short and long term
guidance is consistently indicating the dryline to bulge eastward
into north central Kansas. Strong convergence along and just ahead
of the boundary may provide just enough lift to erode the capping
inversion in place over far north central areas. Surface based CAPE
values increase to 1500 J/KG as effective bulk shear peaks near 45
kts. Strong boundary layer mixing by late afternoon lifts LCL
heights to around 4000 feet. Current thinking is that isolated
thunderstorms are possible over north central KS during the early
evening hours (generally after 6 PM). The higher LCL heights and
less than ideal moisture return leaves the tornado threat low for
this evening. Main threat with these thunderstorms will be the large
hail and localized damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to
track northeast into Nebraska through the evening hours. Conditions
remain dry elsewhere. Moisture return and increased cloud cover keep
lows mild in the middle to upper 60s.
Moisture advection increases overnight into Sunday as the strong
upper low lifts northeast through Colorado into northwest Kansas.
Widespread, broad ascent increases over southern into portions of
northeast Kansas generally after midnight as an 80 kt mid level jet
streak rounds the base of the wave. The increasing lift combined
with steepening mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE values approaching
3000 J/KG sets the stage for another cluster of thunderstorms to form
in the vicinity of southern Kansas, tracking eastward across
portions of north central and east central KS. Latest short term
guidance is not as aggressive with widespread precip developing
further north so have lowered pops to chance and kept highest
chances south of Interstate 70. Main threats with these storms would
be large hail and strong winds.
Uncertainty increases from early morning through the afternoon on
Sunday. Most guidance progs the dryline to surge eastward between 7
to 10 AM with showers and thunderstorms possible over the area,
remaining elevated in nature due to the strong surface inhibition in
place. A few storms may be severe with large hail and gusty winds
possible. Main limiting factor would be if these storms create a
stable surface layer, limiting surface based cells from developing
in the afternoon. Daytime heating and sunshine would allow the
surface instability to increase by afternoon, however the increasing
surface moisture should hold the overcast skies for much of the day.
Assuming convection impacts mainly areas just south of the CWA and
perhaps north central areas, much of east central KS would remain
precip free for a short time, resulting in a higher risk for severe
weather during the late morning into the afternoon. By 1 PM the
dryline is shown to be roughly along a line from Washington, to Clay
Center, and Abilene. Increased chances for thunderstorms to likely
east of this area as the weak capping inversion is able to erode as
surface based instability raises to over 2000 J/KG. Maximizing bulk
shear in excess of 50 kts suggest strong rotating updrafts,
including supercells. The parallel orientation of the winds to the
boundary suggest line segments with embedded areas of rotation are
also possible. Individual cells stand the best chance of a tornado
potential while other modes face a large hail and damaging wind
hazard. Best areas to be impacted by these storms are along and east
of highway 99 through the early evening as the storms and attendant
dryline push eastward.
In addition to the thunder, southerly winds remain gusty through
Sunday with sustained speeds between 20 and 25 mph with gusts near
35 mph. Dewpoints sharply falling over north central Kansas during
the late afternoon Sunday raise the fire danger to very high.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Line of storms moving through far eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon
may linger into the evening hours and have kept a chance far east
to accommodate that potential. Dryline and unstable air push
eastward, leaving area under northwest flow through the boundary
layer Monday and Monday night. A cooler day expected with highs in
the 60s. Chance for rain returns on Tuesday as moisture sags
southward as upper low drops into the Central Plains.
Accumulations are forecast to be light. Repeat performance each
day Thursday and again Friday as lobes of energy rotate around the
upper trof over the Great Lakes states and keep rounds of clouds,
showers, and cool temperatures over the area. May see some
improvement by the weekend as trof makes slow eastward progress
and temperatures could come back up into the 60s. Overnight lows
from the upper 30s on Wednesday night come into the lower 40s by
Thursday night and Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MVFR stratus cigs are expected to form or move in from the south
in the 09Z-11Z period. In addition convection is likely to develop
with an increase in areal extent in the 11Z-18Z time period and
have included a tempo group for now. Surface winds south to
southeast will increase to around 18kts with gusts to near 28 kts.
Dry line timing still not solid but looks like it will move
through MHK around 18Z and TOP and FOE in the 20Z to 21Z time
frame. Skies become vfr after 23Z but winds will remain gusty from
the south.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1125 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BAND OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND A QUICKER TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD DAWN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW ESPECIALLY INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALSO... INSTABILITY DECREASES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT... SOME STRONG STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.
THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST...THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CUT INTO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR VA COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES AND SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
THE LULL CONTINUES WITH THE STORMS. JKL AWAITS THE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST AND THEN A PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST RAP
AND HRRR MODELS. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE TORNADO WATCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY REAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TIMING AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD ONES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT IS LAID OUT TO THE EAST JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS PLACES EAST KENTUCKY WELL INTO TO THE
BROAD WARM SECTOR AND THUS RIPE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THIS IS HELPING STORMS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF
THE CWA...DUE TO THE COLD POOL FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO THE WEST AND
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION TAME THERE...FOR
NOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WHILE THE WINDS ARE RATHER VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SPREADING
WAVES OF ENERGY CLUSTERS OVER EAST KENTUCKY AS IT DOES SO. THE BROAD
CLOSED LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TUESDAY WHILE ONE LAST BATCH OF ENERGY RIDES THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING
THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EACH NEW CLUSTER WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE DEPENDING ON THE INSTABILITY LEFT
BEHIND BY EARLIER STORMS AND CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WAS WHAT SET UP THE STORMS FOR FAR EAST KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ABOUT THAT TIME...THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WORKING TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EAST
KENTUCKY LATER IN THE EVENING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE SET UP REMAINS INTACT. THE ACTUAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THESE LATER EVENTS WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON THE EARLIER
EVOLUTION SO IT BECOMES HARDER TO PIN POINT. DO EXPECT THIS OVERNIGHT
WAVE OF STORMS TO MOVE ON THROUGH TOWARDS DAWN AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ISOLATED TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO AND SPS. AFTER A MIDDAY LULL ON TUESDAY...LOW TOPPED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
CONTINUING POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...INCLUDING A SLIGHT TORNADO THREAT
DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MORE SUNSHINE THAT
MANAGES TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL PLAY INTO HOW STRONG THE
STORMS COULD BECOME. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER
THAT NIGHT AND SHOULD END THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO WIND
DOWN THE THUNDER CHANCES.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NUMBERS MAINLY TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THURSDAY...AND THEN ON INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY AS A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THE FLOW WILL BE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING
THOUGH.
HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
EVENING. THE NEXT STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ROUND OR TWO OF STORMS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TEMPORARILY INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH VFR CIGS AND
VIS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...OUTSIDE OF AND STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
715 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
THE LULL CONTINUES WITH THE STORMS. JKL AWAITS THE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST AND THEN A PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST RAP
AND HRRR MODELS. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE TORNADO WATCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY REAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TIMING AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD ONES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT IS LAID OUT TO THE EAST JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS PLACES EAST KENTUCKY WELL INTO TO THE
BROAD WARM SECTOR AND THUS RIPE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THIS IS HELPING STORMS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF
THE CWA...DUE TO THE COLD POOL FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO THE WEST AND
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION TAME THERE...FOR
NOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WHILE THE WINDS ARE RATHER VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SPREADING
WAVES OF ENERGY CLUSTERS OVER EAST KENTUCKY AS IT DOES SO. THE BROAD
CLOSED LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TUESDAY WHILE ONE LAST BATCH OF ENERGY RIDES THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING
THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EACH NEW CLUSTER WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE DEPENDING ON THE INSTABILITY LEFT
BEHIND BY EARLIER STORMS AND CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WAS WHAT SET UP THE STORMS FOR FAR EAST KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ABOUT THAT TIME...THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WORKING TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EAST
KENTUCKY LATER IN THE EVENING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE SET UP REMAINS INTACT. THE ACTUAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THESE LATER EVENTS WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON THE EARLIER
EVOLUTION SO IT BECOMES HARDER TO PIN POINT. DO EXPECT THIS OVERNIGHT
WAVE OF STORMS TO MOVE ON THROUGH TOWARDS DAWN AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ISOLATED TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO AND SPS. AFTER A MIDDAY LULL ON TUESDAY...LOW TOPPED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
CONTINUING POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...INCLUDING A SLIGHT TORNADO THREAT
DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MORE SUNSHINE THAT
MANAGES TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL PLAY INTO HOW STRONG THE
STORMS COULD BECOME. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER
THAT NIGHT AND SHOULD END THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO WIND
DOWN THE THUNDER CHANCES.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NUMBERS MAINLY TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THURSDAY...AND THEN ON INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY AS A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THE FLOW WILL BE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING
THOUGH.
HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
EVENING. THE NEXT STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ROUND OR TWO OF STORMS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TEMPORARILY INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH VFR CIGS AND
VIS EXPECTED FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...OUTSIDE OF AND STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
425 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
STARTING INTO AN ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WHILE SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM. EASTERN KY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY WILL FIND THEMSELVES POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT...WITH WARM UNSTABLE AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY.
WHILE NOT MUCH PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN
TERMS OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL WORK TO HELP ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EASTWARD SLOWLY. LATEST HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/HRRR/AND ECMWF ALL POINT AT PRECIP
ENTERING INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z AND THEN CONTINUING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS ALSO AROUND THIS POINT THAT
GFS40 AND NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. WHILE LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
AND SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD WORK TO HOLD OFF SOME PRECIP IN THE
EVENING...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IN
DOING SO...MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
UNSTABLE AIR TO RISE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...BASED ON STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
UPSTREAM...HAVE KEPT THUNDER AS THE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z MONDAY...CHANCE POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
HOWEVER...LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A DRY POCKET
DEVELOPING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE. LATEST RUC13 OMEGA IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
IDEA...SHOWING DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE BY
9Z. THE QUESTION THEN WILL BE...HOW MUCH WILL THIS DOWNSLOPING
INHIBIT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT? HOW FAR INTO EASTERN KY COULD IT
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT STORM GROWTH AND RAIN...AND WILL WE STILL EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES...OR WILL DOWNSLOPE CUT OFF
POTENTIAL ALL TOGETHER? UNFORTUNATELY...THESE ARE ALL QUESTIONS
WHICH CAN/T REALLY BE ANSWERED UNTIL THE MAIN CONVECTION REACHES OUR
AREA. UNTIL THEN...WILL TRY TO PLAY ON THIS THINKING...AND TREND
DOWN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...THOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WITH THE FORCING SO GREAT IN
PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG PULL OF GULF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SHOWERS/TSRA TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING PULL.
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME...COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP FOR TOMORROW...SO HAVE TRIED
TO STICK TO A BLEND. Q VECTORS ARE SHOWING THE BEST AREAS FOR UPWARD
MOTION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME DECENT
CONVERGENCE DOES MAKE IT INTO KY AS WELL...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AS IT HEADS INTO EASTERN KY...EVEN THE QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE PICKS UP ON A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. THIS QUICKLY
DISAPPEARS AS THE BEST CONVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...SO
FURTHER SUPPORT THAT AT SOME POINT THE MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WIND DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ISN/T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT DEEPER. WINDS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE STRONG...SO EXPECT A GOOD DRIVING FORCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO TRAVERSE KY /AS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT POPS AND WEATHER/.
MONDAY NIGHT/S LINE OF STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING THE BEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE SHORT TERM ACCORDING TO THE LAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTER ROUND ONE OF PRECIP MOVES IN TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...A STRONGER SECOND LINE WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
MOISTURE GETTING PULLED IN WILL ALLOW FOR 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS WELL IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE BY 6Z TUESDAY...TRAVERSING EASTERN KY DURING
THIS TIME. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CONVECTIVE RAIN...AND THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER SMALL AREAS...THERE DOES LIE THE THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...INCLUDING EASTERN KY. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS THIS LINE MOVES OVER...SO ANY STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS BRING THE THREAT OF TRANSFERRING SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE GROUND. AS FAR AS THE FLOODING...WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH AT SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
ELECTED NOT TO DURING THE DAY SHIFT JUST FOR THE SHEER FACT THAT THE
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING...AND REALLY ITS GOING
TO BE A MATTER OF HOW MUCH PRECIP WE END UP RECEIVING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO KNOW HOW SATURATED THE SOIL WILL BE
LEADING INTO THE EVENING. WILL MENTION CONCERNS TO INCOMING SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND
LUMBERING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS DOMINANT FEATURE ROLLS OVER ON ITSELF AS IT
SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY EXITING INTO EASTERN CANADA.
BEFORE IT DOES SO...A CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY
PACKETS WILL PLOW THROUGH KENTUCKY BRINGING PERIODIC SUPPORT TO
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY...A KEY ONE OF THESE
PACKETS MOVES OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE PACKETS DO WEAKEN WITH TIME
SO THAT THE VERSION THAT GOES THROUGH ON MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY NOT PACK THE PUNCH OF THE EARLIER ONES. FALLING HEIGHTS
LOCALLY WILL BE NOTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING EVEN AS THE MAIN LOW TO
THE NORTH WEAKENS BUT BY THIS TIME THE ENERGY SWIRLING PAST WILL BE
SIMILARLY WEAKER. IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT THE AGREEMENT OF
THE GEM WITH THE NEARLY LOCKSTEP ECMWF AND GFS AT MID LEVELS FADES
AND ITS SOLUTION IS SUBSEQUENTLY DISCOUNTED. THE OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS OVER EAST
KENTUCKY INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER...MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN...TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS A BIT
BETTER CONSOLIDATED WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF AS IT TAKES ITS AXIS
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SNEAKS A LEAD
WAVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE REST OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN TICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTION
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND ON A WELCOMED QUIETER NOTE. FOR THE
FORECAST HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE LATEST ECMWF THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AT LEAST ONE LAST STORMY DAY AND NIGHT
TO START THE EXTENDED. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 12Z TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SURGE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
ROLLING INTO THE AREA LATER THAT DAY WILL START TO ACT ON THE
ENVIRONMENT OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...TO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY LIKELY KICKING OFF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. WITH THE VEERING SHEAR PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
INSTABILITY BY EVENING TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. THESE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING OUT TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM/S SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEARBY FRONT AND LOW MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAVE WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDER THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR EAST AND MAINLY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHILE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO A MINIMUM. HAVE GONE WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEFINITELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE
BULK OF THE EXTENDED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY REMAINS THE MOST
CHALLENGING DAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO QUESTIONS OF CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING EARLY MORNING BATCH OF CONVECTION. MORE...AND
QUICKER...CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
70S AND ALSO SPIKE THE INSTABILITY MAKING FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CAPPED AND
INSTABILITY/SVR POTENTIAL MORE LIMITED.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR
A DRY SUNDAY. DID ALSO FINE TUNE SOME LOW TEMP GRIDS LATER IN THE
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WHILE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR BOTH THE WEATHER
AND ASSOCIATED PARAMETERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A COLD
FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...SLOWLY CRAWLING EASTWARD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TURNING INTO SOME
DECENT THUNDERSTORM CELLS. DESPITE MOST MODEL PRECIP DATA AND ONGOING
FORECAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD...POTENTIALLY HAMPERING
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE EXACT
SET UP/TIMING/ AND IMPACTS TO TAF SITES HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALL DEFINITE THREATS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
STARTING INTO AN ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WHILE SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM. EASTERN KY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY WILL FIND THEMSELVES POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT...WITH WARM UNSTABLE AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY.
WHILE NOT MUCH PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN
TERMS OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL WORK TO HELP ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EASTWARD SLOWLY. LATEST HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/HRRR/AND ECMWF ALL POINT AT PRECIP
ENTERING INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z AND THEN CONTINUING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS ALSO AROUND THIS POINT THAT
GFS40 AND NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. WHILE LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
AND SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD WORK TO HOLD OFF SOME PRECIP IN THE
EVENING...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IN
DOING SO...MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
UNSTABLE AIR TO RISE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...BASED ON STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
UPSTREAM...HAVE KEPT THUNDER AS THE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z MONDAY...CHANCE POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
HOWEVER...LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A DRY POCKET
DEVELOPING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE. LATEST RUC13 OMEGA IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
IDEA...SHOWING DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE BY
9Z. THE QUESTION THEN WILL BE...HOW MUCH WILL THIS DOWNSLOPING
INHIBIT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT? HOW FAR INTO EASTERN KY COULD IT
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT STORM GROWTH AND RAIN...AND WILL WE STILL EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES...OR WILL DOWNSLOPE CUT OFF
POTENTIAL ALL TOGETHER? UNFORTUNATELY...THESE ARE ALL QUESTIONS
WHICH CAN/T REALLY BE ANSWERED UNTIL THE MAIN CONVECTION REACHES OUR
AREA. UNTIL THEN...WILL TRY TO PLAY ON THIS THINKING...AND TREND
DOWN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...THOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WITH THE FORCING SO GREAT IN
PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG PULL OF GULF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SHOWERS/TSRA TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING PULL.
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME...COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP FOR TOMORROW...SO HAVE TRIED
TO STICK TO A BLEND. Q VECTORS ARE SHOWING THE BEST AREAS FOR UPWARD
MOTION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME DECENT
CONVERGENCE DOES MAKE IT INTO KY AS WELL...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AS IT HEADS INTO EASTERN KY...EVEN THE QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE PICKS UP ON A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. THIS QUICKLY
DISAPPEARS AS THE BEST CONVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...SO
FURTHER SUPPORT THAT AT SOME POINT THE MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WIND DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ISN/T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT DEEPER. WINDS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE STRONG...SO EXPECT A GOOD DRIVING FORCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO TRAVERSE KY /AS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT POPS AND WEATHER/.
MONDAY NIGHT/S LINE OF STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING THE BEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE SHORT TERM ACCORDING TO THE LAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTER ROUND ONE OF PRECIP MOVES IN TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...A STRONGER SECOND LINE WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
MOISTURE GETTING PULLED IN WILL ALLOW FOR 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS WELL IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE BY 6Z TUESDAY...TRAVERSING EASTERN KY DURING
THIS TIME. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CONVECTIVE RAIN...AND THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER SMALL AREAS...THERE DOES LIE THE THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...INCLUDING EASTERN KY. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS THIS LINE MOVES OVER...SO ANY STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS BRING THE THREAT OF TRANSFERRING SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE GROUND. AS FAR AS THE FLOODING...WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH AT SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
ELECTED NOT TO DURING THE DAY SHIFT JUST FOR THE SHEER FACT THAT THE
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING...AND REALLY ITS GOING
TO BE A MATTER OF HOW MUCH PRECIP WE END UP RECEIVING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO KNOW HOW SATURATED THE SOIL WILL BE
LEADING INTO THE EVENING. WILL MENTION CONCERNS TO INCOMING SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY ON IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BLOCKY LONG WAVE PATTERN TO
DOMINATE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A PLAINS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ITS WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING STORMY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING ON TIMING
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY SPAWNED FROM THE LOW...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE NOSING IN
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION TO MOVE IN
ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST
WITH TIME. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WEAKER-SIDE...HOWEVER
AN AMPLE WIND PROFILE A DEEPER FORCING MAY WIND UP OVERCOMING THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT AND A
SECONDARY THREAT OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW
STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...PWATS WILL BE
APPROACHING 90TH PERCENTILE PLUS AND WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE
ORIENTING ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...SOME
TRAINING WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE QUESTION REMAINS...WHERE
DOES ALL OF THIS SET UP EXACTLY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST 06Z NAM
HAVE THE CONVECTIVE LINE CULMINATING OUT IN CENTRAL KY/TN AND SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
ONCE THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE DEEP
SOUTH...KEEPING KENTUCKY OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE MEAGER ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER SHEAR LOOKS AMPLE...WITH MORE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PARTICULAR...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF MORE
DISCRETE CELLS. AS SUCH...WILL STILL BE MENTIONING A SEVERE POTENTIAL
HERE...BUT WITH JUST LESS UNCERTAINTY SINCE MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT PRECEDING THIS PERIOD.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...HOWEVER WITH LESS INTENSITY EACH DAY...AS WE LOSE
INSTABILITY AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS OFF. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST IDEA...KEEPING POPS MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED EACH
DAY. HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WHILE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR BOTH THE WEATHER
AND ASSOCIATED PARAMTERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A COLD
FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...SLOWLY CRAWLING EASTWARD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TURNING INTO SOME
DECENT THUNDERSTORM CELLS. DESPITE MOST MODEL PRECIP DATA AND ONGOING
FORECAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD...POTENTIALLY HAMPERING
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE EXACT
SET UP/TIMING/ AND IMPACTS TO TAF SITES HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALL DEFINATE THREATS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
121 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Have updated the grids this morning mainly to account for the
expected evolution of convection this afternoon. WV imagery depicts
a PV anomaly ejecting out of the main upper low. This shortwave is
currently across portions of eastern TX and OK, but will quickly
race northeast this afternoon. In response to this ejecting
feature, isentropic ascent has led to the development of convection
across AR/MS this morning. This convection will continue to push
northeast through the day. The latest HRRR has the best handle of
the ongoing convection, so have leaned on that for timing. This
makes for a slightly faster arrival into the region than the
previous forecast, getting convection into our southwest CWA by
18-19Z, and up toward the Louisville metro by about 21-23Z.
Guidance still tries to develop decent instability (1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) out ahead of this incoming wave this afternoon, although
this is likely a bit overdone given dewpoints are too high in
guidance. Nonetheless, still feel there is potential for a few
strong to perhaps marginally severe storms mainly along and west of
I-65 given bulk shear values of 20-30 knots. Will continue to
monitor the evolution upstream this morning and provide updates as
needed.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Expect one last warm and partly cloudy day today before a slow
moving cyclone brings several days of episodic storminess beginning
late this evening.
At 500mb a blocking pattern is developing across North America. This
will drastically slow the progression of any individual waves across
the CONUS through the middle of next week. Currently, a potent jet
is wrapping around the eastern side of a deep upper trough now
located over Colorado. This cyclone will deepen farther and close
off as it encounters a persistent ridge that is forecast to lie
right over the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon. By early Sunday,
this cyclone is expected to occlude and become cutoff over western
Kansas.
Moisture, especially at mid-levels, will increase this afternoon and
evening as southwesterly winds aloft brings in modified Gulf
moisture northeast from Arkansas. Dewpoints won`t rise much at the
surface until tonight as easterly surface winds will continue to
advect continental air from over the Appalachians. Expect warm
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the upper 70s to near 80.
The first of several disturbances associated with the sprawling
cyclone over the plains will arrive this evening. Forecast soundings
show adequate surface-based instability developing by late afternoon
and evening, especially southwest of Louisville. The GFS especially
forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
within the leading edge of a wholesale moisture surge. Aiding any
convection may be the remnants of an old northwest to southeast
orientated weak stationary front. Episodic convection may continue
through much of early Monday as a robust low level jet sets up.
After an expected break Monday, a second more potent round of
convection is expect to develop later Monday afternoon and continue
well into Tuesday morning. This second round will develop within an
area of maximized moisture convergence ahead of slow moving occluded
front. A potential exists for some training convection and locally
excessive rainfall to areas south and east of the Ohio River. Expect
mild temperatures in the lower 60s early Monday with highs Monday
well into the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Still some debate about what will be ongoing at the start of the
period, with the GFS initiating a new line of convection west of the
region Monday afternoon and trudging it across our area Monday
night. The NAM however has a stronger line just to our east with a
weaker line initiating to the west and moving through Monday night.
The 12Z Euro leaned closer to the GFS solution. The biggest factor
will be how long precip lingers from earlier in the day Monday,
keeping instability down. A look at the end of the high-res WRF-NMM
and WRF-ARW indicates that both lean toward the NAM solution.
Given this uncertainty, one has to go to the basics. We will have a
pretty moist airmass in place. We do have plenty of deep-layered
shear to generate stronger thunderstorms. Confidence thus is fairly
high that we will have some thunderstorms Monday night, and they
should provide heavy rain, perhaps some minor flooding in areas that
receive heavy rain tonight and Monday.
For Tuesday, model consensus is pretty good that we will see a
longer breather in precip, as drier air works in aloft. However a
rather potent PV anomaly will rotate around the base of our large
scale low in the afternoon. This anomaly looks to come through at a
better time of day for severe potential. However the instability
looks to be stronger over the Deep South and would not be surprised
to see that area keep us from getting too many severe reports in our
forecast area. Agree with previous forecaster that the Lake
Cumberland region looks to have the best chance for severe, but
again this forecast relies on a lot of factors coming together so
stay tuned!
The multiple rounds of precip across the region, some heavy, could
spark some flash flooding. Given how relatively dry we have been the
last few weeks and the higher flash flood guidance, will hold off on
issuing a watch at this point. Will be issuing a Hydrologic Outlook
though, to highlight flood potential and let the next shift or two
decide if a flash flood watch is needed.
After the round of precip clears the area Tuesday evening, chances
for severe weather go down. However we will not be able to get rid
of rain chances the rest of the period as the stubborn upper low
takes a while to push through the Northern U.S. The GFS has light
QPF each day, but the other models are not showing as much. Will
keep slight chances each night and low-end chance each day with low
QPF.
Temperatures will start off above normal for highs Tuesday, then
turn noticeably colder as the cold upper low gets closer to our
region and lowers thicknesses. Highs could get near 80 Tuesday in
the breaks of the clouds. Then Wednesday they should drop to around
70 for most locations before dropping to around 60 Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
A rather complex TAF period is in store as multiple rounds of
convection look to affect TAF sites, along with a marginal LLWS
setup tonight. Current radar imagery shows scattered storms
developing across portions of TN and western KY. These storms will
continue to develop northeast through the afternoon hours.
Confidence in storm coverage is highest at KBWG, with decreasing
confidence at KSDF and KLEX. Any terminal that does get a storm
could see briefly reduced cigs/vsbys, perhaps to IFR in the heavier
precipitation.
Otherwise, storms should diminish a bit in coverage late this
evening as the first wave pushes northeast. A low-level jet will
ramp up to the west and slide into the Ohio Valley overnight,
helping to bring renewed showers and thunderstorms into the region.
This low-level jet will produce a marginal LLWS setup, but think
surface winds will likely stay up a bit (perhaps even more than
currently forecasted), which should limit impacts. Again,
cigs/vsbys will likely drop in the heavier convection.
Precipitation will again diminish by mid-morning Monday, setting the
stage for another round of convection to develop in the afternoon,
possibly affecting KSDF during the planning period. Winds on Monday
will be considerably stronger than today, with sustained southerly
winds at 13-18 knots, with gusts of 20-25 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
907 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Have updated the grids this morning mainly to account for the
expected evolution of convection this afternoon. WV imagery depicts
a PV anomaly ejecting out of the main upper low. This shortwave is
currently across portions of eastern TX and OK, but will quickly
race northeast this afternoon. In response to this ejecting
feature, isentropic ascent has led to the development of convection
across AR/MS this morning. This convection will continue to push
northeast through the day. The latest HRRR has the best handle of
the ongoing convection, so have leaned on that for timing. This
makes for a slightly faster arrival into the region than the
previous forecast, getting convection into our southwest CWA by
18-19Z, and up toward the Louisville metro by about 21-23Z.
Guidance still tries to develop decent instability (1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) out ahead of this incoming wave this afternoon, although
this is likely a bit overdone given dewpoints are too high in
guidance. Nonetheless, still feel there is potential for a few
strong to perhaps marginally severe storms mainly along and west of
I-65 given bulk shear values of 20-30 knots. Will continue to
monitor the evolution upstream this morning and provide updates as
needed.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Expect one last warm and partly cloudy day today before a slow
moving cyclone brings several days of episodic storminess beginning
late this evening.
At 500mb a blocking pattern is developing across North America. This
will drastically slow the progression of any individual waves across
the CONUS through the middle of next week. Currently, a potent jet
is wrapping around the eastern side of a deep upper trough now
located over Colorado. This cyclone will deepen farther and close
off as it encounters a persistent ridge that is forecast to lie
right over the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon. By early Sunday,
this cyclone is expected to occlude and become cutoff over western
Kansas.
Moisture, especially at mid-levels, will increase this afternoon and
evening as southwesterly winds aloft brings in modified Gulf
moisture northeast from Arkansas. Dewpoints won`t rise much at the
surface until tonight as easterly surface winds will continue to
advect continental air from over the Appalachians. Expect warm
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the upper 70s to near 80.
The first of several disturbances associated with the sprawling
cyclone over the plains will arrive this evening. Forecast soundings
show adequate surface-based instability developing by late afternoon
and evening, especially southwest of Louisville. The GFS especially
forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
within the leading edge of a wholesale moisture surge. Aiding any
convection may be the remnants of an old northwest to southeast
orientated weak stationary front. Episodic convection may continue
through much of early Monday as a robust low level jet sets up.
After an expected break Monday, a second more potent round of
convection is expect to develop later Monday afternoon and continue
well into Tuesday morning. This second round will develop within an
area of maximized moisture convergence ahead of slow moving occluded
front. A potential exists for some training convection and locally
excessive rainfall to areas south and east of the Ohio River. Expect
mild temperatures in the lower 60s early Monday with highs Monday
well into the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Still some debate about what will be ongoing at the start of the
period, with the GFS initiating a new line of convection west of the
region Monday afternoon and trudging it across our area Monday
night. The NAM however has a stronger line just to our east with a
weaker line initiating to the west and moving through Monday night.
The 12Z Euro leaned closer to the GFS solution. The biggest factor
will be how long precip lingers from earlier in the day Monday,
keeping instability down. A look at the end of the high-res WRF-NMM
and WRF-ARW indicates that both lean toward the NAM solution.
Given this uncertainty, one has to go to the basics. We will have a
pretty moist airmass in place. We do have plenty of deep-layered
shear to generate stronger thunderstorms. Confidence thus is fairly
high that we will have some thunderstorms Monday night, and they
should provide heavy rain, perhaps some minor flooding in areas that
receive heavy rain tonight and Monday.
For Tuesday, model consensus is pretty good that we will see a
longer breather in precip, as drier air works in aloft. However a
rather potent PV anomaly will rotate around the base of our large
scale low in the afternoon. This anomaly looks to come through at a
better time of day for severe potential. However the instability
looks to be stronger over the Deep South and would not be surprised
to see that area keep us from getting too many severe reports in our
forecast area. Agree with previous forecaster that the Lake
Cumberland region looks to have the best chance for severe, but
again this forecast relies on a lot of factors coming together so
stay tuned!
The multiple rounds of precip across the region, some heavy, could
spark some flash flooding. Given how relatively dry we have been the
last few weeks and the higher flash flood guidance, will hold off on
issuing a watch at this point. Will be issuing a Hydrologic Outlook
though, to highlight flood potential and let the next shift or two
decide if a flash flood watch is needed.
After the round of precip clears the area Tuesday evening, chances
for severe weather go down. However we will not be able to get rid
of rain chances the rest of the period as the stubborn upper low
takes a while to push through the Northern U.S. The GFS has light
QPF each day, but the other models are not showing as much. Will
keep slight chances each night and low-end chance each day with low
QPF.
Temperatures will start off above normal for highs Tuesday, then
turn noticeably colder as the cold upper low gets closer to our
region and lowers thicknesses. Highs could get near 80 Tuesday in
the breaks of the clouds. Then Wednesday they should drop to around
70 for most locations before dropping to around 60 Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Cirrus, and eventually some mid-level clouds will thicken today as
increasing moisture streams northeast and overruns a weak stationary
front. Instability will increase late this afternoon and evening.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop at our TAF sites
between 00 and 06z this evening, and will likely continue through
12z Monday morning. Although this convection will be episodic, think that
at some point convection will affect each of our TAFs. Light winds
early this morning will become east southeasterly by this afternoon
and average around 7 to 10kt. Southeasterly winds will continue
overnight into Monday morning at this same speed.
Despite lowering ceilings, our easterly winds will keep away low
strato-cu and VFR ceilings are expected up until any convection
affect a terminal. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will develop in
any thunderstorms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
436 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
OVER NW KS/SW NE...WITH A VIGOROUS PACIFIC JET NOSING IN FROM THE
PAC NW AND CURLING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MX INTO THE
WRN GULF. KLCH AND KPOE VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 50KT PLUS
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS HARD TO MISS OVER NW KS...WITH A
TRAILING CDFNT/DRYLINE THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX.
HARD TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF FAITH IN ANY SPECIFIC SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...AS PRECIOUS FEW CAUGHT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLINE SPC
4KM WRF WASNT TOO BAD...AND THE HRRR DID FINALLY CATCH ON. THESE
TWO MODELS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL
MODELS...DEPICT A BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS NE TWD SHREVEPORT. THE
SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NORTHERN ZONES
TO BE AFFECTED GIVEN THE THE PROJECTED EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT IN THIS AREA...AND HOLD ONTO
THE SEVERE WORDING.
GENERALLY PRESERVED THE INHERITED INLAND WIND HAZARDS...BUT DID
TWEAK THE MARINE HAZARDS A BIT...EASING OUT OF THE SCA FOR THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS MID EVENING...AND THE INLAND WATERS WEST OF
CAMERON AFTER MIDNIGHT CONCURRENT WITH LATEST PROGS THAT SHOW
WINDS STARTING TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. A WIND ADVISORY MAY STILL BE WARRANTED FOR A TIME ACROSS
SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BUT WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW
MAKE THE CALL ON THAT AS IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL.
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST TOMORROW...AS THE
CDFNT PUSHES JUST EAST OF A KSHV TO KLFK LINE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS
IS...STAYING MAINLY WITH LOW TO MID RANGE POPS AND PRESERVING THE
SEVERE WORDING PER SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT IS STILL FCST TO PUSH THROUGH THE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON TUE...WITH THE SEVERE RISK DISPLACED TO OUR
EAST BY THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT IN IDEAL AGREEMENT...THE GFS
HAS COME A LONG WAY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN DEPICTING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES/LOWS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA WOULD BE THU NIGHT-FRI...AS BOTH MODELS
DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTING THROUGH THE NW GULF COAST
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT OVER THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS TONIGHT AND THE
WATERS WEST OF CAMERON LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TIDES WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL UNTIED STATES...CULMINATING IN A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 84 70 85 / 20 30 20 20
KBPT 72 84 69 85 / 20 20 20 20
KAEX 71 85 67 83 / 50 50 30 30
KLFT 72 84 71 85 / 30 40 40 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALLEN-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-EVANGELINE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-VERNON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALCASIEU
LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CDT TONIGHT FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA. SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS...AND FORECAST AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS IS CAPPED ACROSS THE AREA BELOW 800 MB. A FEW SPOTS OF
CONVECTION SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING GUSTS TO
25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS
MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MESOSCALE...INCLUDING HRRR AND 3KM WRF...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE FACT THAT THERE IS ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN SW
LOUISIANA MERITS THE MENTION OF AT LEAST SMALL POPS TONIGHT...WITH
BEST CHANCES NORTH.
MESOSCALE 9KM WRF SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA PRIOR TO ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO BREAK LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
CAP WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER
7-8C/KM...CAPES IN 2000-3000 RANGE. BEST WIND FIELDS WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. BEST THREAT WILL BE
FROM INTERSTATE 12 NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TUESDAY. PLAN IS TO GO WELL ABOVE MAV POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...PAYING SOME HEED TO THE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MET
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TO SOME EXTENT...ALTHOUGH EVEN THOSE
POPS LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. AT THIS POINT...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...SO
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2 INCHES OR SO THAT THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE.
MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
HAVE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL SYSTEM ONLY PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND POSSIBLY THE
COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE MIDWEEK FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
BUMPING THEM UP IN LATER FORECASTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT...MODERATING
SOMEWHAT BY WEEKS END. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CAM A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...SO THERE IS CURRENTLY NO MENTION OF CONVECTION IN
THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY
UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...SO LOOK FOR EXTENSIONS AND
CHANGES IN THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS INTO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 82 69 82 / 20 50 60 40
BTR 71 87 71 87 / 20 40 60 40
ASD 70 84 70 83 / 20 30 60 60
MSY 72 84 72 84 / 20 30 60 50
GPT 73 81 72 81 / 20 30 70 60
PQL 69 81 69 80 / 20 20 60 60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
726 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO HOLD ONTO MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, THIS WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.
THE LATEST HRRR AND GFS INDICATE SHOWERS WEAKENING W/THE LOSS OF
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE, SHIFTED THE AXIS
OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT W/PRECIP CHANCES
DROPPING BELOW 10% ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AROUND THE LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MARITIMES
EARLY TONIGHT. COULD ALSO STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SKIES TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL SET UP
FAIRLY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SO WITH THIS
FORECAST LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
EASTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEAR CALM WINDS RIGHT
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE CWA...COLDEST EAST AND NORTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL START TO
ADVANCE INTO THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT RIGHT AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST WHERE
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES INTO
THE AREA FOR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN.
OVERALL, MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALTHOUGH THE GEM GLOBAL BRINGS IN PRECIPITATION A BIT FASTER WITH
THE GFS THE SLOWEST AND THE ECMWF RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. TRENDED
TOWARD THIS MIDDLE SOLUTION IN TERMS OF TIMING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY BEGIN MOVING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH EASTERN
AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN LOOKS TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS FOR QPF
AMOUNTS WITH INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN FAVORING GENERALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN CANADA AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL TAKE US THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN GENERALLY UNSETTLED AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THIS WEEKEND WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLE EAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST, HOWEVER, ARE LIKELY
FROM TIME TO TIME. AN OCCLUSION WILL BE LIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH. FRIDAY
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THIS OCCLUSION CONTINUES AWAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY. THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
SHOWERS WHILE DOWNEAST STAYS CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY. A THIRD
RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY POSSIBLY CAUSING A PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CEILINGS...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING THIS
EVENING THEN RUNNING THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS ON THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AND
MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE WINDS/SEAS COME UP
AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW WHICH WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND FOG. INDICATIONS ARE FOR
CONDITIONS TO REACH SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FITZSIMMONS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
645 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AROUND LOW PRES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
APART TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE WHERE THE LOW
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TEMPERATURES AND WHERE TO
PLACE RAINFALL CHANCES.
LOW PRES WAS SPINNING SE OF NOVA SCOTIA PER THE 18Z ANALYSIS. SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW EXTENDED BACK EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE. THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MOVED SSW EARLY TODAY
AND ANOTHER ROUND IS APPROACHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AS SEEN BY THE LATEST
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. BEST
SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING
IS THERE AS SEEN BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM12. EXPECTING THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED CHANCE
POPS(30-50%) FOR THE CWA TONIGHT W/THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER W AND SW,
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE 32F WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SEE NO SUPPORT FOR THIS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEREFORE, STAYED W/QPF OF 0.10" OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES IS FORECAST TO WEDGE DOWN FROM CANADA. SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL HANG ON TO MORE
CLOUDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES. DECIDED TO
BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY UP TO READINGS AOA 50F MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL
HANG W/MORE CLOUDS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATER WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LONG RANGE
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES
TOWARD THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST FOR THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUSION
MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. STEADIER RAIN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS TIME AND A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS HOWEVER THE
ECMWF MODEL BRINGS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DRYING IN FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVES NORTH UP
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTATION IS FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING(01Z). A PERIOD OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT(AFT 05Z) AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECIDED TO STAY W/MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
THE UPSHOT TO THIS IS THAT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR TAF SITES BY
MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR AND THEN IFR THURSDAY AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA ATTM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO
HIGH FOR THE WINDS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PUSH THE SPEEDS
BACK. THEREFORE, AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECISION HERE WAS TO
KEEP WINDS GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS W/SUSTAINED WINDS 15+ KTS INTO
MONDAY. THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 25NM COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS.
WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ALSO RUNNING BELOW THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE. SO, SEAS WERE LIMITED TO 5 FT AND THIS IS
AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS
SE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUSION MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THESE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
341 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TEMPERATURES AND WHERE TO
PLACE RAINFALL CHANCES.
LOW PRES WAS SPINNING SE OF NOVA SCOTIA PER THE 18Z ANALYSIS. SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW EXTENDED BACK EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE. THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MOVED SSW EARLY TODAY
AND ANOTHER ROUND IS APPROACHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AS SEEN BY THE LATEST
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. BEST
SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING
IS THERE AS SEEN BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM12. EXPECTING THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED CHANCE
POPS(30-50%) FOR THE CWA TONIGHT W/THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER W AND SW,
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE 32F WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SEE NO SUPPORT FOR THIS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEREFORE, STAYED W/QPF OF 0.10" OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES IS FORECAST TO WEDGE DOWN FROM CANADA. SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL HANG ON TO MORE
CLOUDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES. DECIDED TO
BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY UP TO READINGS AOA 50F MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL
HANG W/MORE CLOUDS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATER WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LONG RANGE
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES
TOWARD THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST FOR THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUSION
MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. STEADIER RAIN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS TIME AND A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS HOWEVER THE
ECMWF MODEL BRINGS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DRYING IN FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVES NORTH UP
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTATION IS FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING(01Z). A PERIOD OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT(AFT 05Z) AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECIDED TO STAY W/MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
THE UPSHOT TO THIS IS THAT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR TAF SITES BY
MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR AND THEN IFR THURSDAY AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA ATTM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO
HIGH FOR THE WINDS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PUSH THE SPEEDS
BACK. THEREFORE, AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECISION HERE WAS TO
KEEP WINDS GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS W/SUSTAINED WINDS 15+ KTS INTO
MONDAY. THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 25NM COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS.
WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ALSO RUNNING BELOW THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE. SO, SEAS WERE LIMITED TO 5 FT AND THIS IS
AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS
SE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUSION MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THESE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
703 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES TO WRN HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...GUSTY EAST WINDS
PREVAILED AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND A LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NRN WI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS IN LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS IT ENCOUNTERS
DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 800 MB) TO THE NORTH AND EAST...PER 12Z APX
SOUNDING.
SOME PCPN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING BUT SINCE IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MAINLY SPRINKLES...ONLY CHANCE POPS
WERE INCLUDED. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO UPPER MI...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
TUE MORNING. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SSE TO NNW BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE TROWAL REGION
NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...PER MODELS 310-320 THETA-E LAYER.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH
RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH TUE. UPSLOPE NE FLOW
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN
TYPE OVER THE INTERIOR...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN THIRD TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...VERY LOW
SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY TO AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED ON
GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGEST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE U.P. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF A
BREAK ON THE PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE OVER THE EAST THIRD...BUT STILL WOULD
EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL. BETTER DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AFTER THAT...AND WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
AND BROADENS/WEAKENS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH...THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE POPS NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP...BUT PINNING THOSE DOWN AT THIS TIME IS TOO
DIFFICULT.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPPING IN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING (EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING MIX NEAR IRONWOOD).
THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AROUND THE LOW (REMAINING AROUND
2-4C AT 850MB) THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING
AS RAIN. THEN AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO
COOL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD LEAD TO A
TRANSITION TO TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX HEADING INTO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THE
1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0 HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SINCE IT WAS LARGELY DEALING WITH A NEAR SURFACE WARM
LAYER. DID PUT IN SOME FOG FOR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF MOIST AIR.
ELSEWHERE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE JUST A LOW STRATUS DECK. ALL IN
ALL...LOOKS TO BE A COOL/CLOUDY/SHOWERY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT POINT. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR MORE ZONAL
FLOW OR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIER PERIOD THAN SEEN THIS
WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE 12Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING SOME
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MONDAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AS CIGS LOWER
TO MVFR. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING WITH
CIGS LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WEST TOWARD CMX AND ESPECIALLY IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND A
STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY. ENE GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUE BUT SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THE 30 KNOTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES...THE WATCH WAS
RETAINED FOR THIS LOCATION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM WED INTO FRI AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THESE
RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER
RIVERS WILL START TO RISE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES
BY THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF
HIGHER QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS THIS
WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...SRF/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NW CONUS WITH A LOW OVER WRN KS AND A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS THROUGH WRN LAKES INTO MANITOBA.
AT THE SFC...A BRISK ERLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND A DEEP LOW OVER NW KS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PCPN WAS PRODUCING MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES INTO
THE FAR WRN CWA NEAR IWD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE VERY DRY LAYER BELOW
750 MB. HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAIN OVER WRN INTO N
CNTRL WI...SUPPORTED BY 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS LIFTING TOWARD
UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME WITH THE ERLY LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. FARTHER TO THE EAST...OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI...THE DRY
AIR...PER 12Z APX SOUNDING...SHOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE AT SLOWING THE
ADVANCE AND REDUCING PCPN CHANCES. WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN...SOME SNOW OR SLEET MAY ALSO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PER NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
MON...THE MODELS WERE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE
ADVANCE OF PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WERE NOW ON
THE SLOWER SIDE COMPARED TO GEM. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SRN IA INTO NRN INDIANA. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD UPPER
MI WITH INCREASING 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE 850 MB
WARM FRONT THROUGH CNTRL WI. THERE IS STILL LIKELY TO BE SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN BAND THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WI BORDER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS VERY LOCKED INTO IDEA THAT WHILE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSRA AND SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTN ALONG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF SFC LOW OVER NEB. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY LIFTING AHEAD OF PARENT UPPER LOW.
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA WILL ALREADY BE LIFTING TOWARD UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL DUE TO REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING PER SSW-NNE ORIENTED
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND H85-H7 MOSITURE TRANSPORT.
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH VEERING H85-H7 FLOW FM ESE
TO MORE SSW. FOLLOWING THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RIBBON OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING. BASED ON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES/H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHT OF
WBZERO...MAY SEE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN PERHAPS EVEN LINGERING INTO MID AFTN.
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. WILL LEAVE OUT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AS
TRAVEL WOULD PROBABLY BE ONLY MINIMALLY IMPACTED. BY LATE
AFTN...EXPECT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS H85 TEMPS SURGE ABOVE ZERO.
THIS MAY BE OCCURRING WHEN MAJORITY OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END THOUGH. BY TUE EVENING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRYING ABOVE H9...SO THERE MAY BE DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE SFC-H85 SO BY THAT TIME WILL ONLY BE DEALING WITH LIQUID PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SEEMS TO BE A TREND FOR BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN TO THE EAST...ALLOWING BULK OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO SURGE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. HOWEVER...SIGNAL THAT HIGHER THETA-E
AT H8-H7 WILL BE WRAPPING WESTWARD ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON CYCLONIC
NORTH SIDE OF FILLING SFC-H85 LOWS. RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WOULD ONLY BE
BOLSTERED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH NE BLYR WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND WILL KEEP
WITH THE CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOWS. THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH AND WEST OF H85 LOW WHERE
HIGHER THETA-E CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ALSO WHERE
LINGERING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. YET...CANNOT RULE OUT
PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA AS OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL
PROBABLY BE CYCLING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER AND THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER REGION.
DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP THAT OCCURS BEYOND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
BE HEAVY AS RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE HEADING WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THAT TIME. GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SFC /H85 TEMPS DROPPING BLO 0C PER GFS/ECMWF/
COULD RESULT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF CWA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MAY EVEN SEE MIX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS BY THAT TIME THOUGH AS
SYSTEM WILL BE UNRAVELLING AS IT LIFTS EAST AND NORTH AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL FORECAST OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
NO WARM UP IS IN STORE. COULD BE MORE RAIN/SNOW BY NEXT SUNDAY AS
THERE ARE HINTS OF STRONGER SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIMING FOR THAT SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY
DICTATED BY THE UPPER LOW THIS WEEK AND HOW QUICK IT DEPARTS...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ALL THESE DETAILS WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK OUT. THUS...CHANGES TO MODEL CONSENSUS BEYEOND THURSDAY WERE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AT KIWD
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT ENE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
TOWARD DULUTH INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN LAKE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH
TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU AS THE LOW FILLS AND
REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...AND THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION IN DELTA COUNTY. AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
NONE OF THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE
AND OTHER RIVERS MAY START TO RISE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2
INCHES BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RUNOFF.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEG-TILT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH BUILDING 5H HGTS AND AMPLIFYING RDG OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTED IN A DRY ERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE ONLY REVEALS SOME BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FM
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN SPILLING INTO UPPER MI.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE AZ/CO BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
MID-LVL AND SFC LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. WAA PCPN LIFTING
THROUGH MN AND NRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN BREAKING APART ON THE NRN EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND DRY ERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH.
DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY EVIDENT
FM 00Z KGRB AND KINL SNDGS. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAN
TOWARD DRIER SOLN OF NAM AND REG GEM FOR OUR FCST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. GENERALLY EXPECT
THAT PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH TODAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN (NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) FINALLY REACHING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG GREAT LAKES IN E-NE FLOW TO MID
40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AT KIWD
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT NE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD
DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE
THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU
AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST BATTLES MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE WIND. MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOW
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE DTW AREA.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM JAMES BAY DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
RESIDING WELL WEST OF THE STATE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN HAS BEEN VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE
STABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN RESIDENCE. THE LOW STRATOCUMULUS THAT
PLAGUED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...FORCED FROM COLD AIR
ADVECTION....RAPIDLY DISSIPATED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TRACKED OVERHEAD. THE LOSS OF
CLOUD TOP COOLING SEEMED TO HAVE AN ALMOST INSTANTANEOUS IMPACT ON
THE CLOUD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF
CLOUDS FOR THE DAYBREAK HOUR AS IT IS A TOUGH TASK TO GAIN SOME
HANDLING ON THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUD. WITH THE BLOCKED NATURE OF THE
FLOW/TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...FAVOR A MORE TRANSPARENT HIGH CLOUD AND WILL BE VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODERATION OF THE
AIR MASS OF SOME 4C AT 850MB BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF
MORE INSOLATION...DECIDED TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME LOCATIONS OVERACHIEVING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CHILLY EASTERLY WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP SOME DENIZENS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
UNSATISFIED FOR A SECOND DAY.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD NEAR SURFACE
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED OFF OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. FOR
THESE REASONS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA APPROACH LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AROUND
12Z...BUT FEEL THE POTENTIAL TO MEASURE A HUNDREDTH IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A PRECIPITATION MENTION.
LONG TERM...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NEBRASKA BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE
PREVALENT LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE CIRCULATION/TROUGH UNDERGOES CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION IN SCALE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME...A POSITIONING THAT LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FIRMLY WITHIN THE EASTWARD FLANK OF THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDWEEK PERIODS. DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIATE A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE RESPONSE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NET RESULT BEING A
STEADY NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION IN 850-925 MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND TRANSLATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY...OWING TO THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE EXISTING DRY
LAYER RETAINED WITH THE SURFACE-925 MB EASTERLY GRADIENT. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION...SUPPORTING
THAT OF THE ECMWF/NAM IN PROVIDING A MORE INCREMENTAL RAMP UP OF
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB LARGELY SEEING A
DRY START TO THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
BOTH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND SOME FORM OF WEAK CVA
AS SHREDS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WORK THROUGH THE UPSTREAM
CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
/CONTAINING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. QPF POTENTIAL IN THE HALF INCH RANGE WITH THIS FIRST
EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.
LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...THE DETAILS
SENSITIVE TO PROPER PLACEMENT OF THE GOVERNING BACKGROUND DYNAMICS
TIED ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LODGED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL ANCHOR
POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN AN ADDED DIURNAL COMPONENT
AND CONTINUED FAVORED PLACEMENT OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE RUN POST-
FRONTALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. HIGHER END
POPS REMAIN WARRANTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PATTERN
PERSISTENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY BREAK IN ACTIVITY
AT SOME POINT WITHIN ANY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THAT CAN
FILL IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
COOLER AIR WILL RAP BACK IN AROUND THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GOOD DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY. THIS WILL FIRMLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
/50S/...LIKELY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OUT WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE THUMB. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THESE
LOCALES. EXPANSION OF ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS BY MONDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEG-TILT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH BUILDING 5H HGTS AND AMPLIFYING RDG OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTED IN A DRY ERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE ONLY REVEALS SOME BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FM
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN SPILLING INTO UPPER MI.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE AZ/CO BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
MID-LVL AND SFC LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. WAA PCPN LIFTING
THROUGH MN AND NRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN BREAKING APART ON THE NRN EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND DRY ERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH.
DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY EVIDENT
FM 00Z KGRB AND KINL SNDGS. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAN
TOWARD DRIER SOLN OF NAM AND REG GEM FOR OUR FCST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. GENERALLY EXPECT
THAT PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH TODAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN (NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) FINALLY REACHING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG GREAT LAKES IN E-NE FLOW TO MID
40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AT KIWD
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT NE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD
DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE
THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU
AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH CLOUD ENDED THE REIGN OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAD BECOME A NUISANCE. RIDGING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH WILL KEEP A BKN CIG OF LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY REMAINS IN FLUX...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* AN EASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORY WILL HOLD THROUGHOUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM JAMES BAY DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
RESIDING WELL WEST OF THE STATE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN HAS BEEN VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE
STABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN RESIDENCE. THE LOW STRATOCUMULUS THAT
PLAGUED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...FORCED FROM COLD AIR
ADVECTION....RAPIDLY DISSIPATED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TRACKED OVERHEAD. THE LOSS OF
CLOUD TOP COOLING SEEMED TO HAVE AN ALMOST INSTANTANEOUS IMPACT ON
THE CLOUD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF
CLOUDS FOR THE DAYBREAK HOUR AS IT IS A TOUGH TASK TO GAIN SOME
HANDLING ON THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUD. WITH THE BLOCKED NATURE OF THE
FLOW/TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...FAVOR A MORE TRANSPARENT HIGH CLOUD AND WILL BE VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODERATION OF THE
AIR MASS OF SOME 4C AT 850MB BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF
MORE INSOLATION...DECIDED TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME LOCATIONS OVERACHIEVING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CHILLY EASTERLY WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP SOME DENIZENS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
UNSATISFIED FOR A SECOND DAY.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD NEAR SURFACE
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED OFF OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. FOR
THESE REASONS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA APPROACH LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AROUND
12Z...BUT FEEL THE POTENTIAL TO MEASURE A HUNDREDTH IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A PRECIPITATION MENTION.
LONG TERM...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NEBRASKA BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE
PREVALENT LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE CIRCULATION/TROUGH UNGOES CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION IN SCALE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME...A POSITIONING THAT LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FIRMLY WITHIN THE EASTWARD FLANK OF THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDWEEK PERIODS. DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIATE A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE RESPONSE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NET RESULT BEING A
STEADY NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION IN 850-925 MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND TRANSLATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY...OWING TO THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE EXISTING DRY
LAYER RETAINED WITH THE SURFACE-925 MB EASTERLY GRADIENT. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION...SUPPORTING
THAT OF THE ECMWF/NAM IN PROVIDING A MORE INCREMENTAL RAMP UP OF
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB LARGELY SEEING A
DRY START TO THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
BOTH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND SOME FORM OF WEAK CVA
AS SHREDS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WORK THROUGH THE UPSTREAM
CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
/CONTAINING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. QPF POTENTIAL IN THE HALF INCH RANGE WITH THIS FIRST
EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.
LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...THE DETAILS
SENSITIVE TO PROPER PLACEMENT OF THE GOVERNING BACKGROUND DYNAMICS
TIED ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LODGED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL ANCHOR
POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN AN ADDED DIURNAL COMPONENT
AND CONTINUED FAVORED PLACEMENT OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE RUN POST-
FRONTALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. HIGHER END
POPS REMAIN WARRANTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PATTERN
PERSISTENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY BREAK IN ACTIVITY
AT SOME POINT WITHIN ANY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THAT CAN
FILL IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
COOLER AIR WILL RAP BACK IN AROUND THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GOOD DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY. THIS WILL FIRMLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
/50S/...LIKELY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OUT WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE THUMB. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THESE
LOCALES. EXPANSION OF ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS BY MONDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEG-TILT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH BUILDING 5H HGTS AND AMPLIFYING RDG OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTED IN A DRY ERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE ONLY REVEALS SOME BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FM
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN SPILLING INTO UPPER MI.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE AZ/CO BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
MID-LVL AND SFC LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. WAA PCPN LIFTING
THROUGH MN AND NRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN BREAKING APART ON THE NRN EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND DRY ERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH.
DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY EVIDENT
FM 00Z KGRB AND KINL SNDGS. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAN
TOWARD DRIER SOLN OF NAM AND REG GEM FOR OUR FCST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. GENERALLY EXPECT
THAT PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH TODAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN (NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) FINALLY REACHING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG GREAT LAKES IN E-NE FLOW TO MID
40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT NE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD
DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE
THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU
AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS SASK. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
N TO NE FLOW INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP SHOWED A CLEARING TREND
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND DAYTIME MIXING HELPING TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH...DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME LIGHT EAST WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TOWARD THE LOWER 20S INLAND NORTH AND TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE WI
BORDER.
SUN...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WAA PCPN AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH UPPER MI AS IT
SPREADS THROUGH WI. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT ERLY LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE BELOW 750 MB...PER FCST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT THAT THE PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI AND
THE KEWEENAW...THE EAST WIND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE TO
35KTS OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EAST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO
TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO THU AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM JAMES BAY DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
RESIDING WELL WEST OF THE STATE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN HAS BEEN VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE
STABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN RESIDENCE. THE LOW STRATOCUMULUS THAT
PLAGUED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...FORCED FROM COLD AIR
ADVECTION....RAPIDLY DISSIPATED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TRACKED OVERHEAD. THE LOSS OF
CLOUD TOP COOLING SEEMED TO HAVE AN ALMOST INSTANTANEOUS IMPACT ON
THE CLOUD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF
CLOUDS FOR THE DAYBREAK HOUR AS IT IS A TOUGH TASK TO GAIN SOME
HANDLING ON THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUD. WITH THE BLOCKED NATURE OF THE
FLOW/TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...FAVOR A MORE TRANSPARENT HIGH CLOUD AND WILL BE VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODERATION OF THE
AIR MASS OF SOME 4C AT 850MB BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF
MORE INSOLATION...DECIDED TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME LOCATIONS OVERACHIEVING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CHILLY EASTERLY WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP SOME DENIZENS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
UNSATISFIED FOR A SECOND DAY.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD NEAR SURFACE
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED OFF OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. FOR
THESE REASONS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA APPROACH LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AROUND
12Z...BUT FEEL THE POTENTIAL TO MEASURE A HUNDREDTH IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A PRECIPITATION MENTION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NEBRASKA BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE
PREVALENT LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE CIRCULATION/TROUGH UNGOES CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION IN SCALE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME...A POSITIONING THAT LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FIRMLY WITHIN THE EASTWARD FLANK OF THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDWEEK PERIODS. DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIATE A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE RESPONSE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NET RESULT BEING A
STEADY NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION IN 850-925 MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND TRANSLATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY...OWING TO THE OVERALL DEPTH OF EXISTING DRY LAYER
RETAINED WITH THE SURFACE-925 MB EASTERLY GRADIENT. THIS PARTICULAR
PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION...SUPPORTING THAT OF THE
ECMWF/NAM IN PROVIDING A MORE INCREMENTAL RAMP UP OF POPS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH...THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB LARGELY SEEING A DRY START TO THE
WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY BOTH FAVORABLE EXIT
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND SOME FORM OF WEAK CVA AS SHREDS OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY WORK THROUGH THE UPSTREAM CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
HIGHER END COVERAGE OF SHOWERS /CONTAINING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. QPF POTENTIAL IN THE HALF INCH
RANGE WITH THIS FIRST EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL LOCK TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
AREAWIDE.
LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...THE DETAILS SENSITIVE
TO PROPER PLACEMENT OF THE GOVERNING BACKGROUND DYNAMICS TIED
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LODGED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL ANCHOR
POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN AN ADDED DIURNAL COMPONENT
AND CONTINUED FAVORED PLACEMENT OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE RUN
POST-FRONTALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. HIGHER END
POPS REMAIN WARRANTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PATTERN
PERSISTENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY BREAK IN ACTIVITY
AT SOME POINT WITHIN ANY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THAT CAN
FILL IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
COOLER AIR WILL RAP BACK IN AROUND THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GOOD DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY. THIS WILL FIRMLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
/50S/...LIKELY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OUT WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE THUMB. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THESE
LOCALES. EXPANSION OF ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS BY MONDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
//DISCUSSION...
THE PATCH OF VFR STRATUS OVER FNT AND MBS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY
ERODED BY RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CLOUDS COULD BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
CLOUD COVER TO THESE SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS SASK. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
N TO NE FLOW INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP SHOWED A CLEARING TREND
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND DAYTIME MIXING HELPING TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH...DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME LIGHT EAST WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TOWARD THE LOWER 20S INLAND NORTH AND TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE WI
BORDER.
SUN...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WAA PCPN AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH UPPER MI AS IT
SPREADS THROUGH WI. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT ERLY LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE BELOW 750 MB...PER FCST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT THAT THE PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI AND
THE KEWEENAW...THE EAST WIND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
UPPER LOW BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD LUMBERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC LOW NEARBY THE UPPER LOW CENTER
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING ALOFT ON ITS EDGES
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER INSTIGATORS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A STRUGGLE FOR THE MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WHERE
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUN INTO THE SFC HIGH
AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR A LOT
OF MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY
AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...THINK LOWER SFC-H85 RH OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO ISOLD SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR AREAS IN THE
LOWER 40S ON MONDAY...BUT INLAND AREAS CLOSER TO WI BORDER AND OVER
THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE 50S WITH BETTER MIXING
HEIGHTS UP TO H85. POSSIBLE THAT MID 50S COULD OCCUR OVER FAR EAST IF
CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARRIVE...UPPER LOW
WILL BE EXERTING ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. EAST WINDS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS IN
ALL AREAS WELL BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS THIS PERIOD UPR 30S TO LOW
40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE 40S INLAND. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION COMES
IN TWO WAVES. FIRST MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SUPPORTED BY INITIAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS STEADIER
PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO MAINLY DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. PTYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE INITIALLY AS H85 TEMPS BLO ZERO OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AND SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING POINT TO POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RIGHT ON THE 1300-1305M LINE WOULD INDICATE DIFFERENCE
BTWN SEEING RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX WILL BE DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION
HEIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT
FOR AREAS IN THE RAIN/SNOW ZONE...BUT PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE
MORE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMS ON
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL CWA. ANY MIX WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTN AS RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LIFTING IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS ALSO WHEN MAIN SFC LOW ARRIVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS HEADING EAST BY
THAT TIME...THERE IS HINT OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
UPR LAKES AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. KIND OF EARLY TO BE
LOOKING AT TROWAL SPECIFICS BUT THAT MAY BE WHAT MODELS ARE KEYING
ON TO BOOST QPF TOTALS ALONG TRACK OF H85 LOW TRACK. UPSLOPE NNW
FLOW MAY ALSO INCREASE TOTALS OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT TOTAL PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS...MAY REACH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH MORE PTYPE
ISSUES AGAIN AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR GRADUALLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SFC. H85 TEMPS DROP BACK BLO 0C SO
COULD SEE MORE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE WEST HALF OF CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNRAVELLING UPPER/SFC LOWS ONLY SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY /BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE/...BUT GRADUALLY POPS WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY
THAT TIME. CONSENSUS MAX TEMPS CONTINUING TO STAY BLO NORMAL ARE NOT
NECESSARILY DESIRED...BUT APPEAR REASONABLE TO CLOSE THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MADE FEW CHANGES TO CONSENSUS TEMPS/POPS/WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE TO
35KTS OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EAST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO
TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO THU AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO
AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO
ADD TO THE RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE IMPACTS OF
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NAMELY THE
STRONG WINDS TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN
WAVES TODAY...WHICH WILL MEAN 1-3 HOUR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF RESPITES BETWEEN WAVES. HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS
DIFFICULT SCENARIO IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS...WITH THE AID OF THE
HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY. AFTER THE MAIN NOCTURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY
EXITS THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE DURING THE MORNING...UNTIL MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH /WARM FRONT/ OVER SODAK/NE/IA LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. TONIGHT WILL BE
INTERESTING...PARTICULARLY FROM A HYDRO PERSPECTIVE...AS PWAT
VALUES SOAR TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FEEDS INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOCUS WILL
BE ON SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE 1-2 INCH SIX-
HOURLY AMOUNTS APPEAR ACHIEVABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE PLACEMENT OF THE KEY PLAYERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER /I.E.
WARM FRONT/ APPEAR TO LIE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SURFACE BASED
STORMS /AND SEVERE ACTIVITY/ TO THE SOUTH OF MN/WI.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY...THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND ON THE
WEAKENING SIDE AS IT BEGINS TO FILL AND MENANDER ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NE
BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AND VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO MOVE IT OUT QUICKLY...MODELS MAYBE
TOO FAST AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU/FRI. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...BASICALLY HOLDING THE UPPER LOW FROM MOVING TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW WILL BE EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WHICH LEADS TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW QUICK THIS SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.
WHAT THIS MEANS AT THE SFC IS A LONG PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COOL CONDS. THE BEST CHC/S OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BEFORE
MONDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTN/EVENING SHRA IF ANY
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCURS. THERE IS EVEN A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER TEMPS WRAP AROUND THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH LIKELY AND HIGH CHC POPS
SEEM REASONABLE THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LOWERING OF THE CHC/S BY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE GENERAL TREND TOWARD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS TO
BE INTACT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WHEN WE/LL SEE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES OF PCPN OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS... BUT TRENDED TOWARD
LATEST HRRR AND CAM SOLUTIONS. THESE SUGGEST CURRENTLY LINGERING
PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT... WITH
REDEVELOPMENT AND BLOSSOMING OF PCPN OVER THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING WORK INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. THE REAL QUESTION
THEN BECOMES WHETHER AND WHEN WE/LL SEE GAPS IN THE PCPN... AND
WHEN LOWER CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE TO STAY. WAS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
IN HANGING ONTO HIGHER CEILINGS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST... MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM... BUT COULD CERTAINLY
SEE THAT NOT OCCURRING SHOULD THE LOW LEVEL MOISTEN MORE QUICKLY
THAN SUGGESTED. COULD ALSO SEE LOWER VISIBILITIES... BUT MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON PCPN RATES AND DEGREE OF BR WHICH OCCURS WITH THE PCPN.
KMSP...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL TRENDS AND CHANGES...
BUT TIMING OF PCPN WAVES COULD EASILY DIFFER BY SEVERAL HOURS...
AND ULTIMATE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BE WORSE THAN INDICATED A
BIT SOONER. STRONG EAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO
BE A GOOD BET... BUT THE GUSTINESS IS STILL QUESTIONABLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR POSSIBLE. PERIODS
OF RAIN... CHANCE OF THUNDER. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING
NORTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN... CHANCE OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WIND 10
TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
NORTH.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RAIN LIKELY.
NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WESTERN WISCONSIN RIVERS SILL REMAIN A FOCI...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. AS OF NOW HOWEVER...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
3+ TOTALS APPEAR TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WHAT
THE RIVERS IN WESTERN WI WOULD NEED FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE RISK REMAINS LOW UNLESS CONVECTION TONIGHT GETS
OUT OF HAND FROM A HEAVY RAIN STANDPOINT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
054>058-064>066-073.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ067-074>077-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...TRH
HYDROLOGY...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1142 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
RED LODGE REPORTING 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW SO FAR...LIVINGSTON ASOS
IS MIXING WITH SNOW...JUDITH GAP OBS SUGGEST SNOW...AND WE
RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF SNOW NOW AT RAPELJE. BLX RADAR SHOWS
MIXED PCPN DOWN TO ABOUT 4500 FEET...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE VARIETY OF REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME WX/SNOW/TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES...AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
COLUMBUS AND EDGAR AS OF 11PM AND IT IS NOT DONE YET. LOOKS LIKE
TOTALS WILL REACH AN INCH AND A HALF IN PLACES BETWEEN BILLINGS
AND BIG TIMBER BY THE TIME THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. MID LEVEL LOW
STILL PRODUCING SOME MODERATE PCPN IN THIS AREA...BUT DRIER AIR
NOTED NEAR CODY IS MOVING NORTHWARD. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN SO EXPECT PCPN IN OUR WEST TO TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO OUR EAST...NOTE THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN IN WESTERN SD AND EASTERN WY LIFTING NORTHWARD. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING N TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WY THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA. CAPES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING. THE CAPES WERE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY THE RAP AFTER 03Z...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE EVENING. BULK SHEAR WAS ALSO
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
COMPACT UPPER LOW WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH
AZ THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS SPREADING N OUT FROM THE
LOW IN SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS AGREED THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH
SE CO BY 12Z SUN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO GO NEGATIVE TILT AND TAP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NE THROUGH MON INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LARGER CUTOFF WILL THEN MEANDER E MON NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AMORPHOUS LOW CENTERS WERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOWS WERE FORECAST
TO MERGE OVER NE OR E CO BY 12Z SUN WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MERGED LOW INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL FALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHIFTS TO SE MT...E OF
KBIL...DURING SUN MORNING DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE INVERTED
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUN AND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SE MT. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL BE THIS EVENING OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...BUT DENDRITIC
GROWTH WILL BE HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEPT THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION GOING
OVER THE SE THROUGH MON WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHEST E OVER THE
DAKOTAS. ANOTHER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED MON.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE MON NIGHT.
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT
AND MON NIGHT. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SE SUN NIGHT. ONLY MADE SLIGHT POP AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S SUN AND MON.
STILL EXPECTING GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW BEGINNING
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL EVOLVE
SLOWLY THROUGH MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL DRIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WET AND COOL PATTERN FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH DAY... AND WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. WHILE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW SLOW
BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN... THURSDAY WILL FINALLY BE
WARMER AND DRIER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FINALLY BUILDS IN ALOFT
ALONG WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED IN
TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A WETTER TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAN WE INITIALLY
THOUGHT. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELIES FOR
AREAS EAST OF FORSYTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY COOL ACROSS THE EAST ... WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER WEST
THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAM SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD
AND ALLOWS FOR +10C 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ... GIVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW...HOWEVER THE
MAIN DETERRENT TO REALIZING THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY..WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY TAPER-
ING OFF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN FAVORS STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO SHERIDAN WY GIVEN THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES-
SURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE SHOWS 50 TO 70 PCT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
30 KTS FROM BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN AND ACROSS SE MT ON TUESDAY.
AFTER THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND ON THURSDAY... MODEL SOLU-
TIONS DIVERGE READILY. HOWEVER ... THE OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO
BE TOWARD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW... WHICH KEEP US FROM WARMING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL KEEP A SLGT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.
CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE THUNDER THREAT WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET WILL SEE WET SNOW
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST
FROM KBIL WEST TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST
OF KBIL ON SUNDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SNOW AND BE OBSCURED
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/056 036/051 035/053 036/057 037/062 039/065 041/058
+7/W 32/W 23/W 21/N 11/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 035/057 033/047 032/051 033/057 035/060 035/062 037/061
+5/W 33/W 23/W 11/B 11/U 12/W 22/W
HDN 041/056 033/051 035/052 033/058 032/061 035/066 038/059
99/W 65/W 34/W 42/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
MLS 043/047 034/047 035/048 032/051 033/058 037/063 039/058
9+/R 97/O 56/R 53/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 042/048 033/046 035/046 032/050 031/057 034/062 037/058
9+/R 97/O 56/R 53/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
BHK 042/045 033/044 034/042 031/049 031/054 034/058 036/057
8+/R +8/O 66/R 43/W 12/W 12/W 22/W
SHR 039/053 031/046 033/048 033/050 032/056 033/060 036/060
98/W 55/W 24/W 42/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
845 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS A NEGATIVE
TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A DOWN STREAM
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY NWWD INTO THE HUDSON BAY
OF CANADA. A STRONG JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NRN CALIFORNIA...TO
CENTRAL TX...CURVING NE INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
WITHIN THIS FEATURE...A 90+KT JET MAX EXTENDED FROM SERN OK INTO FAR
NERN ARKANSAS. WV IMAGERY AS OF MIDDAY HAS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NERN NEBRASKA A COLD FRONT EXTENDED EAST SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 58 MPH AT
THEDFORD AND NORTH PLATTE. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
NEDOR CAMS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT
SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS BROWN AND KEYA PAHA COUNTIES. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST INTO THE THESE AREAS.
WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA SO THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL HAZARDS TO CONTENT WITH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS...RAIN AND SNOW.
THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY INCREASING 850 MB WINDS OVERNIGHT TO 60
KTS OVER SW NEB. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR DAYTIME
MIXING AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS. THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. SO FAR TODAY THE SHOWERS HAVE HELP TO
LIMIT THE MIXING AND EXPECT THE NEXT DEFORMATION BAND TO DEVELOP AND
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND LIMIT MIXING THE VERY STRONG
WINDS TO THE SFC.
NOW PRECIP IS AN ISSUE. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE SPREADING INTO
PORTIONS OF NW NEB EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NAM/EC/GEM...HOWEVER THE GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS IS CRITICAL AS LIKE LAST NIGHT...NW NEB
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR RETURN FOR SNOW. MODELS BRING MORE OF THE
COLD AIR INTO CHERRY COUNTY...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE LOW IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE...AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN AND CHERRY
AS THE SNOW SHOULD PILE UP TO A FEW INCHES...AND CANNOT RULE OUT
AROUND 6 NEAR THE BORDER.
TOMORROW TEMPS WARM A LITTLE IN THE MORNING AND A CHANGE TO ALL
LIQUID IS EXPECTED. MODELS BRING MORE DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH
WRAPS ESPECIALLY INTO SW NEB. DID LOWER POPS AND COULD EASILY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEB
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY...CONVERTING THE WINTER WX TO A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END. THE BIG CONCERN HERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA IF WE SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER MIXING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING INTO THE 20S. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCIES BTW THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF H85
TEMPS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BEING 2 TO 4C COOLER COMPARED TO
THE NAM SOLN. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...DECIDED TO BLEND THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LED TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN
THE WEST...TO 35 IN THE EAST. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE LATEST
MODELS PUSH A NICE PLUME OF DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
ABOVE 6000 FT AGL...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR PCPN ANYMORE AND
HAVE ELIMINATED IT FROM THE FCST FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MINNESOTA. A NICE VORT
LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AND WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING. ATTM...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LEVEL AND LOW COND
PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE WEDS AFTN/EVE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FACILITATE GOOD MIXING. WITH H85
WINDS AROUND 35 KTS WEDS AFTN...ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAY FACILITATE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDS EVENING. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
AND WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
FRIDAY TO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM...BEING ABSORBED BY A QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S. MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL FRONTO BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. ENHANCED LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
NRN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME
LOW POPS INTO THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LARGE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH
MVFR SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD HIGHWAY 183. VFR MAY BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
NOTE THE LOCAL IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR ACROSS NRN NEB
AS THE RAIN MIXES OR CHANGES TO WET SNOW. THIS FEATURE COULD
CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004-005-
007-009-010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ006-008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
409 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A POTENT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS
THIS AFTERNOON. A NICE JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...NOSING INTO CENTRAL KS.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES INTO NRN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER GOODLAND KS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW INTO NERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
NORTH OF THE LOW ALONG THE COLORADO/KS BORDER INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...WHILE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...TEMPS WERE IN THE 60S AND
70S. A DRY LINE...EXTENDED NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO SWRN
NEBRASKA...WHERE IT TURNED SOUTHEAST INOT SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
TORNADIC THREAT GENERALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE BETTER
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SANDHILLS...GOOD SPEED SHEAR EXISTS...HOWEVER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS LACKING PER LATEST KLNX VAD WIND PROFILER. IN THESE
AREAS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE OCCURRED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT...THEN
LEAD TO FORMATION OF DEFORMATION BAND AND SNOW POTENTIAL.
THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 20Z...WITH
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER KCBK.
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
TRYING TO KICK THE SYSTEM EAST TOO QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE
CONVECTION...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS...WHERE THE WINDS
STRENGTHEN...AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW.
THE LATEST RAP MODEL MOVES THE SURFACE CIRCULATION TO NEAR KMCK BY
00Z THIS EVENING THEN OVER KHSI AT 06Z AND THEN MOVES IT UP TO
AROUND KBVN BY 12Z. THIS SOLUTION IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE NEW 18Z
NAM. THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN THAT AREA AND SUBSTANTIAL LIFT DUE
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS...EXPECT A GOOD
DEFORMATION BAND TO BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF MOISTURE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THE PRECIPITATION IS IF ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
TO GET SOME AREAS TO GET A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THE NAM AND THE RAP
BOTH SHOW WET BULB PROFILES BELOW ZERO UNTIL ABOUT 300FT OR LESS
ABOVE THE GROUND IN AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY
THE PINE RIDGE. IF THIS TURNS OUT...MAY SEE LOTS OF SNOW FALLING BUT
WILL BE MELTING WHEN HITTING THE SURFACE OR JUST PRIOR. BUT...EVEN
ONE DEGREE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO CHANGE OVER
COMPLETELY TO SNOW AND IF RATES BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...COULD GET
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MODELS ALL KEEPING THE
WET BULB TEMPERATURE ABOVE 0C...DID PUT A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT ONLY HAVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES ASSUMING THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING AT THE SURFACE.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL REMAIN FOR CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. KEPT AT LEAST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN AREAS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH GOING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE SYSTEM.
MOVING ON TO WINDS...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT. THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AS SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30MPH STILL
LOOK LIKELY.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...DID CONSIDER A
NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW...OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WHICH WILL MIGRATE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 84 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE THREAT FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECASTING CONCERN. ON MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...DRIFTING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS H85 WINDS REACH 40 TO 50 KTS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND
DO NOT REALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. TO AVOID
CONFUSION...DECIDED TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER...TO ARTHUR...TO GARDEN COUNTY. IN
THESE AREAS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TOMORROW...BUT
AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND
WARNING AND WILL ISSUE A WATCH AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MAKE THE
CALL. FURTHER EAST...TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NWD TO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY AND WILL
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO WIND...THERE
IS STILL A SMALL THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE RIDGE.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM HAS THE COLDEST BOUNDARY LAYER OF THE THREE
MID RANGE MODELS. GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD UPSTREAM AIR ACROSS NERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ATTM...AM INCLINED TO TREND TEMPS
TOWARD THE WARMER GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
WORDED THE FORECAST WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA CLOSELY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHERE A STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET
UP AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EAST AND SUBSIDE SOME
IN THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS INTO SWRN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT
DATA...ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ONGOING WIND HEADLINES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE ATTM TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH OUR CURRENT HEADLINES. DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER EAST ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE PERIOD...THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL. H85 WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 35 TO 45 KTS ON TUESDAY...SO ANOTHER MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL
HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C
IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 3 C IN THE SOUTHWEST...HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. ON WEDNESDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL WARM TO 1C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER...THOUGH WINDY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIND HEADLINES ATTM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIFTED EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND WILL FORCE COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHS WILL BE MORE MARCH LIKE WITH READINGS IN THE
50S EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH
CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO 4000 TO 6000 FT AGL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 15Z MONDAY. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
21Z. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER 00Z AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ022-035-056>058-069.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ022-035-056>058-069-070.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ023>025-
036-037-059-071-094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ070.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ005-006-008-
009-026-027-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE COLD FRONT CURRENT EXTENDS FROM LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT KS.
TOR WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS N OF THE FRONT.
AND WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT THE FRONT IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MORNING TSTMS OVER ERN NEB/KS HAS RAPIDLY
THINNED. THE STATIONARITY OF THE FRONT MEANS A LONGER WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT. WE HAVE ALREADY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP. MUCAPE IS
CURRENTLY 500-1000 J/KG AND FURTHER INSOLATION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 50S MEANS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE 17Z RAP SUGGESTS
CAPE WILL PEAK 1200-2000 J/KG. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
BE ALERT FOR ABNORMAL STORM MOVEMENT IN OUR WARNINGS /TO THE N OR
NW/. THESE STORMS WILL BE RACING 45-55 MPH. THAT MEANS YOUR
OPPORTUNITY TO RESPOND TO THREATENING WX WILL BE REDUCED.
ADDITIONAL STAFFING HAS ARRIVED.
PLEASE FOLLOW ALL WARNINGS/STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE AND WE WILL
CONT TO PROVIDE MESOSCALE UPDATES VIA THIS PRODUCT AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS...TIME PERMITTING.
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOW BE ACTIVATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THERE ARE NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HEADLINES FOR NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WAS THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOCUSED ON IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE REALLY COME INTO RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES
TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE BIG SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY
INCLUDING THE SFC AND UPPER LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE DRY LINE.
HOW EXACTLY CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE AND FORM WITH REGARD TO
LOCATION AND TIMING DOES VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS THAT IS BUILDING.
AS FOR THE BIG FEATURES...THE UPPER 500MB LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH THE SFC LOW JUST TO ITS NORTH OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM NEAR
THE SFC LOW TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DECENT SIZED WARM SECTOR THAT WILL
INCLUDE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE DRY LINE
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING TO OUR SOUTH
AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS THUNDERSTORMS
FORM NEAR THE DRY LINE AND THEN MOVE OFF THE DRY LINE INTO THE
WARM SECTOR WITH THIS SCENARIO POSSIBLY REPEATING ITSELF. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH BY AROUND MID DAY SHOULD
EXTEND FROM LEXINGTON...TO MINDEN...TO NELSON NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHERLY AT AROUND 40 TO 60
MPH...BUT COULD EVEN TRACK A LITTLE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW.
ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS IS A BIG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM WITH A LOT OF WIND SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TORNADOES MAY COME FROM LESS
THAN CLASSIC LOOKING SUPERCELLS INCLUDING SOME LOWER TOPPED
SMALLER SUPERCELLS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW AND THERE IS
EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF SOME NON-MESOCYCLONE/LANDSPOUT TORNADOES
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE DRY LINE. SPOTTERS SHOULD
BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY.
WIND ADVISORY...THE LAPSE RATES ARE DRY ADIABATIC ALL THE WAY TO
700 MB THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND EXPECT STRONG
MIXING...WHICH WILL BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE WINDS ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
ACROSS SOME OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY. THIS WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER NORTHWARD TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD REALLY QUIET DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE
INSTABILITY IS USED UP AND DEWPOINTS FALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT A LITTLE SOMETHING DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE
WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
IT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR KANSAS. PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO EXPAND MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA COULD HAVE
PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL HAVE A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES AND ONE OF
THEM IS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE COLDER
THAN THE GFS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THE
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB DIP BELOW FREEZING. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL
IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE TREND OF JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BUT A COUPLE OF WAVES CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW COULD BRING A FEW
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 35
KNOTS. EVENTUALLY...THESE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AROUND 7 PM. WATCH
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...RESULTING IN REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY FALL LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE WITH INCREASING WINDS DUE TO
INCREASED MIXING. CONSEQUENTLY...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ072>075-
082>086.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-018-019.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...GUERRERO
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
103 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE THIS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY TRYING TO WORK INTO OUR AREA...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...MAXING OUT
AT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 37000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF
AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH
INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
PLENTY OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM
NEAR KMCK TO NEAR KGCK. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
WITH THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION THUS LIMITING ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA OVER OUR
AREA...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...CONVECTION
ALONG/NEAR THE DRY LINE SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THAT BEING SAID...A
~55KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 1KM WRF-
NMM BOTH SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS
ACROSS OUR EAST 03-06Z. THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST
DEEP-LAYER MUCAPE VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 100-200J/KG RANGE
TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EAST IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. CLOSER TO SUNRISE...ANOTHER ROUND CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR EAST AS THE AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND DRY
INTRUSION...MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 20% POPS ACROSS OUR EAST 10-12Z
SUNDAY...WITH POPS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE...WIND...DEW POINT AND SKY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENTLY OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
...WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS...
ALOFT: A POTENT/DEEP LOW WAS NEAR LAS VEGAS AND MOVING INTO AZ. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD E TO THE 4-CORNERS BY 7PM AND THEN BEGIN TO TAKE ON
NEGATIVE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE OVER ERN CO BY 7AM TOMORROW AND LIFT NE
INTO WRN NEB BY SUNSET.
SURFACE: EVOLUTION WILL BE COMPLEX. DEEP LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN FURTHER OVER ERN CO AND SHOULD BE DOWN TO ~983 MB BY 7PM. A
WARM FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND GRADUALLY LIFT TO NEAR THE NEB-KS
BORDER...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB AND WRN KS. INTO
TONIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE SANDHILLS...WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING FURTHER INTO NEB. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...THE PACIFIC COOL
FRONT WILL HAVE MERGED WITH THE DRYLINE AND THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
WILL BE UNDERWAY OVER NEB. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
TOMORROW AS THE COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONT PIVOTS CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 7AM-4PM. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WRAP
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW FROM 1PM-7PM.
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOT DOWN IN
PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...WHERE STOCKTON WAS 91F AT 3PM. BREEZY SE
WINDS...BORDERING ON WINDY. GRI REPORTED A 38 KT GUST AT 240 PM.
TONIGHT: WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO FIRE E
OF HWY 281. OTHERWISE...DRY/BREEZY/VERY MILD. USED CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS WHICH KEEPS LOWS IN THE 60S E OF HWY 183.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ADVECT N.
SEVERE: THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE ORGANIZING. THE PROBLEM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
TO SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE CAP. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT NO TSTMS
WILL FORM BEFORE SUNSET. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE PROBABILITY IS
ZERO. THERE IS A HINT OF A SMALL COLD FRONT ALOFT CURRENTLY
LIFTING NE FROM TX. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WILL LIFT N THRU THE FCST
AREA 7PM-1AM AND THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER.
BASED ON HI-RES NONHYDROSTATIC MODELS...A SINGLE STORM MAY GO UP
AFTER 5 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR I-70 IN CNTRL KS. A COUPLE MORE STORMS
COULD JOIN IT FURTHER NE OVER S-CNTRL NEB. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE
TSTM THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY E OF HWY 281.
MLCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 2500-3000 J/KG AS A SWATH OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S LIFTS INTO NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE...ESPECIALLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK FORCING. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
MOVE NE AROUND 15 KTS.
ALL THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AS MIXING
WANES THIS EVENING...0-1 KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS...
PUSHING THE 0-1 KM EHI TO 3-5...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO.
ANY TSTMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 10-11 PM.
SUN: HIGHLY VARIABLE. WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH STRATUS IN
SOME AREAS TO START THE DAY. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING WILL OCCUR
7AM-1PM...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ALOFT...INTERACTING WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
SO A NARROW ARC OF TSTMS COULD FORM FAIRLY EARLY AND RACE N INTO
THE SANDHILLS. THE EARLIER THE STORMS FORM...THE MORE SEVERE THEY
COULD BE. DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE SW WILL DIMINISH
INSTABILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CLEARING SHOULD THEN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS LINE...BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVES IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS COULD TRIGGER A COUPLE SHWRS.
SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG /50 KTS/ AND
STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY N-NNW AT 50-60 MPH. HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF
BALLS AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE COLD
AND WARM FRONTS ARE PINCHING TOGETHER AT THE OCCLUSION.
WIND: AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA S OF
I-80. SUSTAINED WINDS MEETING THE CRITERION ARE IN THE FCST. THIS
POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY TONIGHT/S MID SHIFT. IN
COORDINATING THE DDC/GLD/LBF...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. WHILE THE
GREATEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR MORE TO THE W...A TROPOSPHERE FOLD
COULD RESULT IN ABNORMALLY HIGH MIXING. THE 18Z NAM HAS THE LOOK
OF A "PV HOOK" WHICH COULD THREATEN A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS /GUST 40+ AND OR GUSTS 58+/.
AS FOR FIRE WX...DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER
N-CNTRL KS FOR SUN AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RISE A BIT BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SO CURRENT MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 20%. ENOUGH FOR NEAR-CRITICAL MENTION IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEASONABLY COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF APRIL AND BEGINNING TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE AS WE WORK THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME MODEST INSTABILITY TO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTS NORTH...RESULTING IN AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL OFF AND ON AGAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY...WHEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MID LEVEL WAVE
ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY TO START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL BE THE
WINDS...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY WINDY START TO THE WEEK. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH A DEEPER
LOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT ANY
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DID NOT INCREASE WINDS TO MATCH
SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS 35KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS OUR WEST ON MONDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT DID
REINTRODUCE A MENTION INTO THE HWO...AS IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WE
LIKELY WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR AT LEAST
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS LATE WEEK...EXPECT THE LOCAL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THERE ARE SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE WIND
WILL ALSO BE RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO LOW CLOUDS ANYWHERE NEAR BY KGRI...BUT
FORECAST MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AS WE
NEAR DAWN AND BASED ON THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS SEEMS PRETTY
REASONABLE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. KGRI SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR
FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH AS LATE AS MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE
DRY LINE WILL EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH. THIS IS THE WINDOW WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL BE AROUND THE KGRI AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AS EXPECTED...THE 00Z KOAX INDICATED A HEALTHY CAP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LIKELY PREVENTED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH THEY DID TRY AROUND 4 TO 6 PM WITH A
COUPLE OF CU CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
SOME CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED IR IMAGERY...BUT IT FIZZLED.
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON THE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THOUGH IN THAT AREA...DESPITE NOTHING HAPPENING THUS
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WERE FINALLY STARTING TO FILTER ONTO
THE PLAINS...WITH 10 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT KOMA AND 40 TO 60 METER
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB TEMPS WERE +8
TO +10 ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE MAINTAINED JUST 20 PERCENT
CHANCE POPS FOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS IS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT THE FOCUS
COULD VERY WELL BE JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST 01Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...SHIFTING THE SLIGHT RISK
INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES.
THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING THAT THEN ROTATES
NORTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STORM SYSTEM IS DEEPENING AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PLAINS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 170M CENTERED IN
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. 300MB JET UP TO 130KT WAS STILL ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 105-115KT AROUND THE BASE AND TOWARD THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z WAS FOCUSED IN TWO
SEPARATE AREAS...ONE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND FROM WEST TX
THROUGH OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO AROUND 50KT
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK 850MB
FRONT WAS NOTED FROM LOW IN NORTHERN WY/SOUTHERN MT THROUGH NEB INTO
NORTHERN MO. 700-500MB DELTA-T OF 20-24C WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD
OK/WEST TX. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST CO...WITH
WIND SHIFT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NEB NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IA...AND WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER AS UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAD ADVANCED INTO
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS VERY CONDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION ON CWA MARGINS TONIGHT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW. RAP CONTINUES TO MIX OUT PROFILE
DEEPLY BY 23-00Z AND DEVELOP VERY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION...WHILE HRRR
HAS TRENDED FROM PRODUCING A CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING TO NEARLY
DRY...AND 12Z 4KM WRF KEPT THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS THAT DO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ARE DOING SO
JUST IN OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST CWA. HAVE KEPT A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE
SMALL AREA OF POPS ADVANCING FROM SOUTHEAST NEB TO NEAR THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE FOCUSING ON THE NORTHEASTERNMOST
FRINGE FOR TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD KS/NEB ON
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN EASTERN
NEB...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA QUICKLY. WITH ABUNDANT SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST FOR ANY
CONVECTION AS IT GETS GOING ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A BREAK
IN CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THAT AIRMASS WILL
HAVE TIME TO SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA IF NOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD...AND
THUS CONVECTIVE MODE/THREATS WILL BE MESSY AND COMPLICATED. WITH
VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ROTATING LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ENOUGH 0-1KM
SHEAR EXISTS FOR A TORNADO THREAT FOR STORMS IF THEY CAN STAND
ALONE...THOUGH WORTH NOTING THAT HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE STRAIGHT THAN
CURVED IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING CWA IN DRY SLOT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
ONCE UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NEB...IT IS PROGGED TO STALL THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN FILL AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IOWA ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE WRAPAROUND AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS CWA REMAINS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD...AS AIRMASS REALLY
STABILIZES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND THE LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY DOWN INTO THE
50S AND LIKELY STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH 50 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
GENERALLY COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SPECIFIC POP MENTIONS OUT OF MOST PERIODS
FOR NOW...BUT THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TO GET AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE CWA ON SOME PERIOD. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING IN THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE POSSIBLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S IN AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STILL A FAIRLY COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST. INITIALLY...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MVFR CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BY 09-10Z ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY 13-15Z. AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A DRY LINE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 12Z
SHOWED 100+KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE AXIS WAS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE WESTERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A GOOD
DRYLINE FROM EAST OF KHLC INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT 70S AND LOW 80S WERE OBSERVED WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS. FURTHER NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
BEING DEFINED IN THE SURFACE FIELD. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE
QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS OF 35KTS TO 50KTS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
CURRENTLY...THE AREA IS IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS CAN
BE SEEN FROM WATER VAPOR AS THE FETCH OF DRY AIR COMES ALL THE WAY
INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE
IS BEING PUSHED INTO KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS CAN BE SEEN BY
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT YET THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE WARM
SECTOR STAYING CAPPED AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR FROM 26.18Z DOES
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z. BUT
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST. IF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY STORMS TONIGHT...WILL
NEED STORMS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY. DIDN/T REMOVE CHANCES COMPLETELY
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SEVERE
PARAMETERS DO INDICATE THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS. AND WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL HELICITY...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINK SOME OF THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT ROBUST GETTING MID
TO UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WOULD VERY LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOS.
FOR SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY BRING THE 500MB LOW INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES THOUGH IN THE WEST TO
EAST EXTENT AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT MUCH IT HAS A HIGH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS
IMPROVED...YET THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY AND CENTERED IN THE KLBF/KMCK AREA AT
00Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW. SO DID INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLOWER EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH KEEPS THE WINDS FROM INCREASING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER QUICKER MOVEMENT COULD MEAN STRONG WINDS OF 30KTS SUSTAINED
EARLIER. WILL LET ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE GO TO ALLOW MODELS TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES FOR WINDS DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY...INSTABILITY ISN/T TERRIBLY
HIGH...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 100J/KG TO 1500 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR CAN/T DISCOUNT ANY STORMS
AS WELL AS ANY STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN
WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/ WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER WATCHING THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BE IF ANY CONVECTION GOES UP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
THERE IS ONLY LOW INSTABILITY BUT WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD CAUSE ANY CONVECTION TO SPIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MEANDER FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A PLETHORA OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOR THESE PERIODS...THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WIND POTENTIAL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SURFACE LOW...WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS NEBRASKA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A NICE DEFORMATION BAND OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOW FAR EAST THE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR SOME.
MORE ON THAT TWO PARAGRAPHS BELOW.
EVEN AT ONLY 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT...THE LATEST NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW
AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE NAM LIFTS THE H5 LOW FROM AROUND
ARNOLD NEBRASKA TO NORTH OF ONEILL NEBRASKA FROM 00Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
THE GFS LIFTS THE LOW FROM FAR EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY TO NEAR
SPRINGVIEW NEBRASKA DURING THE SAME PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS
THE LOW FROM WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO NEAR VALENTINE. NO
SURPRISE...THE NAM IS COLDEST AT H85 WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH H85 TEMPS OF 2 TO 3 C AT 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...FAVORING ALL RAIN OR POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX. ATTM...WILL
GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PTYPE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST GIVEN THE TRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
ATTM...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS ATTM.
THEN THERE IS THE WIND THREAT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 12Z MONDAY...IE OVER
THE FAR NERN CWA...WHILE THE NAM12 HAS THE LOW NEAR SIOUX CITY IOWA.
NO SURPRISE...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE MET
VERIFIES...WE WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINE FOR AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
GFS SOLN...ANY WIND ADVISORY IF NEEDED WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THIS LEADS TO THE
HEADLINE DILEMMA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTER HEADLINES IN THE NERN
PANHANDLE OR WIND HEADLINES. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO COME IN.
ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
RIDGE WILL LIMIT ANY EWD MOVEMENT OF THE H5 LOW...WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AS
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. IN ADDITION TO COLD RAIN...VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW SETS UP ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AS THE MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z
TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CRAWL SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR AT LEAST A RAIN
SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL INSERT THIS IN THE UPDATED
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY 40+ KT H85
WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS WELL AND IS SHAPING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS H85 TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -2C TO 5C. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO FACILITATE AT LEAST A
RAIN SNOW MIX TROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER
EASTERN IOWA BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE
LOWER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABSORBED
BY THE NRN STREAM AND LIFTED INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY MORNING IN
A BELT OF STRONG EAST WINDS. THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING WITH THIS
FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TSTM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM 15Z SUNDAY ONWARD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY CROSSING NEW MEXICO...LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NM...COLO AND WY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MARK
THE BEGINNING OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WORSENING ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED WIND SPEEDS TO DROP TO 10
MPH OR LESS. THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER HAS ENDED AND THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRENCHMAN BASIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
929 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
A FEW HOURS AGO. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT
BACKING OF THE LOW- LEVEL WIND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC
WHILE MODIFIED 18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED CAPE AS HIGH AS 2700
J/KG EARLIER. MULTI CELL STORMS DEVELOPED BUT DID NOT DISPLAY
SIGNIFICANT DEVIANT MOTION AS THEY MIGHT HAVE HAD SUPER CELLS
DEVELOPED. STILL... HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES REACHED INTO COLD
ENOUGH LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO LEAD US TO BELIEVE LARGE HAIL
WAS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. IF YOU OBSERVED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS ROBESON OR BLADEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING PLEASE LET US KNOW!
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING...MAINLY JUST NORTH OF LUMBERTON AND
ELIZABETHTOWN ARCING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW BERN ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REDEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS WIND VECTORS
BECOME DIFLUENT ALOFT AND THE 850 MB WIND BACKS AND STRENGTHENS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S
MOST PLACES. MODELS STILL SHOW MID TO UPPER RIDGE LINED UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION RUNNING SOUTH...BUT AS TEMPS WARMED INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO 70 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. HRRR
AND RUC SHOWING BEST CAPE LINED UP INLAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOWARD
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO...BUT MAIN FOCUS OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
BE ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS
ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND RUNNING ALONG LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY STILL SEEING TEMPS NOT EVEN
REACHING 70 WITH COOLER AIR WEDGED IN.
BEST HELICITY WILL RUN ALONG WARM FRONT WITH VALUES ABOVE 200 JUST
TO NORTH. OVERALL SHOULD BE RATHER FINE BOUNDARY OF STRONGEST STORMS
AS FORCING REMAINS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
WITH MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THREAT OF
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP TOWARD THE COAST BUT THE MORE STABILIZED AIR BEHIND SEA
BREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST FREE OF STORMS. KEPT POPS
VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED ONCE CONVECTION FLARES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE STEERED EAST MIXED WITH
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EXPECT LOCALIZED CONVECTION TO SHUT DOWN AS HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS
OFF AFTER SUNSET. THEREFORE WILL TAPER OFF POPS AFTER SUNSET LEAVING
BEST CHC TO THE NORTH ALONG BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO...RUNNING IN THE MID 60S IN A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ATTENTION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON UNSETTLED WEATHER...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE...AS
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL IN THE 60S...TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS OUR AREA IS INCLUDED IN SPC`S SLIGHT RISK.
INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS IN
INCREASE...AS IT LOOKS THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL SC/NC/VA AREA...WITH A HEIGHTENED POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. DIFFICULTY WILL BE TIMING
AS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM IN PAST RUNS. HOWEVER...OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 80S...INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA BREEZE AS
WELL ON BOTH DAYS AND ANY OTHER WANDERING BOUNDARIES ABOUT THE
AREA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY MAY BE RATHER ACTIVE. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWRLY FLOW. SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES MAY SPONSOR DEEP ENOUGH LIFT FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER OR NOT INSTABILITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP HOWEVER. BOUNDARY
PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COOLER AND
DRIER FRIDAY. TRAILING UPPER ENERGY ON SATURDAY BUT TOUGH CALL AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
DRY WNW FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVG E-NE
ALONG AND NE OF A N MOVG BOUNDARY ALONG A KLBT/KILM LINE. THE
BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. VCTS COULD BE REPORTED
AT KLBT EARLY THIS EVENING BUT FEEL ANY TS WILL BE N-NE OF THE
TERMINAL. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR AT KILM EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL. CONVECTION
SHOULD END LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP AND
MOVE W-N OF KFLO/KLBT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS NOT CONSISTENT...
BUT GENERALLY SUGGEST IFR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE BY 04Z AT THE COASTAL
/KLBT TERMINALS... AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT KFLO. CIGS WOULD LIFT
TO MVFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 07-08Z WITH IFR MORE LIKELY
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH 12Z. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING IS LOW AS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE TEMPO THAN PERSISTENT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL
INDICATE MORNING VCSH WITH VCTS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BE S GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND THE 18Z MODELS I
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A FEW KNOTS...WITH
10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT 2 FOOT SEAS BUILDING THROUGH 3 FEET OVERNIGHT. A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC SHOULD LARGELY
MISS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS THIS EVENING...THEN PERHAPS REDEVELOPING VERY
LATE TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS...
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OVERALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
OF THE THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW REMAINING UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER THE WATERS
JUST ALONG NORTHERN PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EXPECT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AS
FOR SEAS...2 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT POSSIBLE. COULD SEE 6 TO 7 FT
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY PROBABLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WINDSHIFT TO A
MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PAIRED WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE WIND SPEED WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED.
OFFSHORE WINDS AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE SEAS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
813 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
A FEW HOURS AGO. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SIGNIFICANT
BACKING OF THE LOW- LEVEL WIND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC
WHILE MODIFIED 18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED CAPE AS HIGH AS 2700
J/KG EARLIER. MULTI CELL STORMS DEVELOPED BUT DID NOT DISPLAY
SIGNIFICANT DEVIANT MOTION AS THEY MIGHT HAVE HAD SUPER CELLS
DEVELOPED. STILL... HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES REACHED INTO COLD
ENOUGH LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO LEAD US TO BELIEVE LARGE HAIL
WAS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. IF YOU OBSERVED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS ROBESON OR BLADEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING PLEASE LET US KNOW!
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING...MAINLY JUST NORTH OF LUMBERTON AND
ELIZABETHTOWN ARCING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW BERN ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL LEAVE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
LATE TONIGHT...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REDEVELOPMENT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS WIND VECTORS
BECOME DIFLUENT ALOFT AND THE 850 MB WIND BACKS AND STRENGTHENS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S
MOST PLACES. MODELS STILL SHOW MID TO UPPER RIDGE LINED UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION RUNNING SOUTH...BUT AS TEMPS WARMED INTO THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO 70 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. HRRR
AND RUC SHOWING BEST CAPE LINED UP INLAND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOWARD
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO...BUT MAIN FOCUS OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
BE ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS
ALONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND RUNNING ALONG LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY STILL SEEING TEMPS NOT EVEN
REACHING 70 WITH COOLER AIR WEDGED IN.
BEST HELICITY WILL RUN ALONG WARM FRONT WITH VALUES ABOVE 200 JUST
TO NORTH. OVERALL SHOULD BE RATHER FINE BOUNDARY OF STRONGEST STORMS
AS FORCING REMAINS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
WITH MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL THREAT OF
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY REACH INTO OUR
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP TOWARD THE COAST BUT THE MORE STABILIZED AIR BEHIND SEA
BREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST FREE OF STORMS. KEPT POPS
VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED ONCE CONVECTION FLARES. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE STEERED EAST MIXED WITH
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EXPECT LOCALIZED CONVECTION TO SHUT DOWN AS HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS
OFF AFTER SUNSET. THEREFORE WILL TAPER OFF POPS AFTER SUNSET LEAVING
BEST CHC TO THE NORTH ALONG BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO...RUNNING IN THE MID 60S IN A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...ATTENTION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON UNSETTLED WEATHER...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM TEMPERATURES
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE...AS
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL IN THE 60S...TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICH
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS OUR AREA IS INCLUDED IN SPC`S SLIGHT RISK.
INTO WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS IN
INCREASE...AS IT LOOKS THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL SC/NC/VA AREA...WITH A HEIGHTENED POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. DIFFICULTY WILL BE TIMING
AS MODELS HAVE EVER SO SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM IN PAST RUNS. HOWEVER...OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAIN THREAT TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AGAIN IN THE 80S...INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA BREEZE AS
WELL ON BOTH DAYS AND ANY OTHER WANDERING BOUNDARIES ABOUT THE
AREA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY MAY BE RATHER ACTIVE. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWRLY FLOW. SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES MAY SPONSOR DEEP ENOUGH LIFT FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER OR NOT INSTABILITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP HOWEVER. BOUNDARY
PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COOLER AND
DRIER FRIDAY. TRAILING UPPER ENERGY ON SATURDAY BUT TOUGH CALL AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
DRY WNW FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVG E-NE
ALONG AND NE OF A N MOVG BOUNDARY ALONG A KLBT/KILM LINE. THE
BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. VCTS COULD BE REPORTED
AT KLBT EARLY THIS EVENING BUT FEEL ANY TS WILL BE N-NE OF THE
TERMINAL. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR AT KILM EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE TERMINAL. CONVECTION
SHOULD END LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP AND
MOVE W-N OF KFLO/KLBT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IS NOT CONSISTENT...
BUT GENERALLY SUGGEST IFR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE BY 04Z AT THE COASTAL
/KLBT TERMINALS... AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT KFLO. CIGS WOULD LIFT
TO MVFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 07-08Z WITH IFR MORE LIKELY
AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH 12Z. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING IS IS LOW AS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE TEMPO THAN PERSISTENT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL
INDICATE MORNING VCSH WITH VCTS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BE S GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND THE 18Z MODELS I
HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A FEW KNOTS...WITH
10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT 2 FOOT SEAS BUILDING THROUGH 3 FEET OVERNIGHT. A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC SHOULD LARGELY
MISS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS THIS EVENING...THEN PERHAPS REDEVELOPING VERY
LATE TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS...
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OVERALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
OF THE THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW REMAINING UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAKE IT OVER THE WATERS
JUST ALONG NORTHERN PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EXPECT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AS
FOR SEAS...2 TO 4 FT WITH 5 FT POSSIBLE. COULD SEE 6 TO 7 FT
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY PROBABLY
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WINDSHIFT TO A
MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PAIRED WITH A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE WIND SPEED WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED.
OFFSHORE WINDS AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE SEAS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
131 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY OF
DICKINSON. WILL ADD SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH..WHICH IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO STAY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON SO CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FIRST SURGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW PIVOTING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHER POPS WEST AND NORTH WITH LOWEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY. EARLY STAGES OF THIS CUT OFF LOW ARE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING WITH A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SO FAR WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER
WINDS EAST. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AT ABR AND
THAT EVEN LOOKS LIMITED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH. COULD
BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES FOCUSED MORE IN THE WEST AND
EASTERN MONTANA. BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SLOW MOVING LARGE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO LOW IFR
AT KDIK. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT WILL LIMIT
VSBYS TO BELOW 1 MILE AFTER 10Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1003 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FIRST SURGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW PIVOTING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHER POPS WEST AND NORTH WITH LOWEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY. EARLY STAGES OF THIS CUT OFF LOW ARE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING WITH A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SO FAR WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER
WINDS EAST. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AT ABR AND
THAT EVEN LOOKS LIMITED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH. COULD
BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES FOCUSED MORE IN THE WEST AND
EASTERN MONTANA. BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT945 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY EAST WINDS 25 TO 38KTS WILL
IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH. COULD
BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES FOCUSED MORE IN THE WEST AND
EASTERN MONTANA. BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS IFR AND BELOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
318 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILIAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LOWERING NEAR IFR AFTER
SUNSET. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO 04 UTC HRRR FOR POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
THUS FAR. AS OF 06 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
SOUTH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR...EXPECT
THE WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FROM 09-12 UTC ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THEREAFTER...RAIN BECOMES
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH...WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN RAIN CENTRAL DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WEST...BUT CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. BISMARCK WAS STILL
GUSTING TO 45 MPH LAST OBSERVATION. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSOURI...MORTON...OLIVER
ON SUNDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IT GOING.
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING OUT THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ANOTHER...LARGER...BAND
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 2-3 AM SUNDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WILL NEED TO ADD EVENING POPS TO THE ZONES EAST OF A LINE FROM
BISMARCK TO MINOT. ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS INITIATING IN
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AN AXIS OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS
DEPICTED ON THE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. NWS ABERDEEN HAS HAD REPORTS
OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EAST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WIND SPEEDS WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE. NO
OTHER CHANGES THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE STRONG WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY...THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED INTO THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL COUNTIES NORTH OF MINOT TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND WAS
MOVING INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN ROCKIES...WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ONE OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.
STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS HAD BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AND HAD ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FOR COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...BUT ALSO INCLUDING A FEW COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR WINDS TONIGHT...THE LATEST MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
MORE INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND SUPPORTING SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL WINDS
THAT SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN EARLIER FORECAST. WILL
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN BEGINNING AFTER 10 PM CDT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY ON
SUNDAY WILL INCLUDE EMMONS COUNTY TO PIERCE AND ROLETTE COUNTY AND
EASTWARD.
IN SUMMARY FOR WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY/THIS
EVENING TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY.
THE STRONG SURFACE LOWS MERGE/DEVELOP INTO ONE LARGE SURFACE SYSTEM
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...CENTERED AROUND EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS/WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT BY LATE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE INSTABILITY ALOFT...ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVE IN NORTH DAKOTA - ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE IS POISED TO RECEIVE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
NOT QUITE DONE WITH WINTER WEATHER YET. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE HEADLINE IN THE
EXTENDED WITH A RAIN EVENT...THEN SOME SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
ONGOING WET/COOL PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WANES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL LIGHT BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. H85 TEMPS ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...(-2C TO -4C) ALONG WITH THE GFS SOUNDINGS...INDICATE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRIOR TO
THIS...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING....THE THREAT OF A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IS MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA IN CONCERT WITH SUBZERO 850MB TEMPS AND SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
MAIN UPDATE TO THE ALLBLEND WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HIGHS
TUESDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SNOW OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTING IN H85 TEMPS BELOW ZERO (-2C TO -4C)...JUST CANNOT FOLLOW
THE ALLBLEND FORECAST OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. HAVE
CUT THESE BY ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES...THINKING THAT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN POSSIBLY
RISING TO AROUND 40 AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN NOSING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT...WET SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LATEST ECMWF HAS
H85 TEMPS OF -4C WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FROM 06Z
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AND WET
BULB TEMPS ABOVE 32F...SNOWFALL RATES WOULD HAVE TO BECOME FAIRLY
HEAVY TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY ON ROADS...A BIT EASIER ON GRASSY
AREAS WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER DESK ON DAY
3 WHICH INCLUDES THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME HAS POCKETS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SOME 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE GROUND. OUR
LATEST GRIDS HAVE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AND WILL USE THIS AS A STARTING POINT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE FUTURE AS THE AMOUNT/AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION COINCIDING WITH SUBZERO 850 TEMPS BECOMES CLEARER.
TREND IS FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY CENTRAL INCLUDING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AS A 850MB COLD POCKET OF -2C
REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE GFS MAINTAINS SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER BRISK
AND CHILLY DAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A MORE AGGRESSIVE COOLING TREND
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME SIGNATURE OF THIS. APPEARS SPRINGTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE BACK BURNER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LOWERING NEAR IFR
AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD/KS/JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. A PUSH OF WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION. A COOLER AND STILL
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FCST AREA STILL FAIRLY DRY AHEAD OF APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY WIND AND DRY LOW LEVELS. HRRR IS
TRENDING WITH DIMINISHING THE TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SW IN/SE IL/W KY
AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS ENE TOWARD AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SLOWLY BUILT
CHANCE SHRA WITH SCT TSRA AFTER ESPECIALLY 02Z WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN FCST AREA IN THE 06/12Z
TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES ARE APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
TOWARD 12Z...BUT THIS BAND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND AM NOT
CONCERNED WITH TRW+ ISSUES WITH THIS FIRST ROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE FIRST PUSH OF MOISTURE TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME. A LULL IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON IS DEPENDENT ON HOW WORKED OVER OUR AREA
BECOMES DUE TO THE MORNING PRECIP. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE
NAM MUCH LESS AGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABY. CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.
WITH THE INCREASING LLJ INTO THE EVENING...SOME INCREASING LL
SHEAR...THOUGH BEST INSTABY AND WIND FIELDS INDICATE THE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH AN INTENSIFYING LLJ...OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREA WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AS THE
SYSTEM. AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS BEST TO OUR SOUTH...AND CONFIDENCE
OF FLASH FLOODING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH ATTM. WILL CONTINUE
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH BROAD SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION TO PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...INITIAL SFC FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONGOING CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN RE-DEVELOPMENT DURG THE
LATE AFTN IN THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND MARGINAL INSTBY INDICATED BY MODEL SOLNS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SE EARLY TUESDAY WITH PW/S
APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO PIVOT NE AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM...PASSING NW OF
ILN/S FA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE ANOTHER
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOLNS WORK SOME DRIER AIR
INTO ILN/S FA LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PIVOTS NE BUT HANG BACK TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT SATURDAY. THEREFORE...SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY WITH NEXT TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME MODERATION EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CIRRUS AND A LITTLE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
MOISTENING BEGINS ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THINKING THAT A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER SRN IND/NRN KY AND WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD CVG/LUK WHILE BATTLING RESIDUAL DRY AIR. ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT THESE SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT
GREAT...MAINTAINED THE SMALL TEMPO GROUP AND PUSHED THIS BACK IN
TIME IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AT SITES
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
USED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. FEEL A LITTLE BETTER
ABOUT A BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE DRIVING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
MVFR VIS/CIG CURRENTLY THE WORST THAT IS EXPECTED...AND COULD END
UP LARGELY A VFR EVENT GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS OF LATE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARD SOUTH BY LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
151 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY. A LARGE...POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A PUSH OF
WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING EPISODES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
27.12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PRETTY CLEARLY THE IMPACT OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. STILL QUITE
MILD /+12C/ AT 850MB WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW BUT RATHER STRONG
COOLING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT CENTERED NEAR/BELOW 925MB WITH
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING RUNNING A GOOD
5-10F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AREA-WIDE...EVEN NEAR 15F OFF OF
YESTERDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS MAKES MAX TEMP FORECAST
TODAY TOUGH...AS DEPTH OF COOL AIR/EASTERLY FLOW DIMINISHES
TOWARD AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM JUST SOUTH OF EVANSVILLE TO SOUTH OF LEXINGTON.
RECENT RAP/HRRR ARE EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE IN PBL MIXING/WARMING
SUGGESTING TEMPS SOARING TO NEAR 80F AS FAR NORTH AS WILMINGTON -
AND THUS HAVE BEEN IGNORED. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG STATISTICAL
REGRESSION OF 925MB TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND RAW 2M TEMPS FROM
VARIOUS NWP THAT SUGGESTS GOING TEMPS ARE ON TRACK /NEAR HIGHER
END OF MOS/ WITH EXPECTED HIGHS FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 70S
FAR SOUTH. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...JUST NOT TO
DEGREE OF RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS. HAVE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT EASTERLY FLOW/SLOW
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL KEEP MANY AREAS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN FCST SO WILL WATCH. OTHER ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THIS EVE
IN SE IND/NRN KY. SOME RECENT HRRR /NAM-WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
BULLISH IN LEADING ARC OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT /THETA-E ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO THESE AREAS AROUND
SUNSET OR JUST AFTER. OTHER STORM SCALE GUIDANCE /OPERATIONAL AND
PARALLEL ARW-WRF/ STRONGLY DISAGREES AND BREAKS UP SHRA BEFORE
PENETRATING THE FORECAST AREA. DEGREE OF FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
ANEMIC...AND AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCANT. DID INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES IN FAR SWRN CORNER OF AREA THIS EVENING...BUT DIDN/T
ALLOW THAT PUSH TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WAITING UNTIL STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE/FORCING ON
MONDAY MORNING. SO TONIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN ERN
IND/NRN KY AND TREND DOWNWARD INTO OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT THE DEEP H5 LOW OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AN AREA SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ON MONDAY.
THIS INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH NE BY AFTN AND THERE MAY
BE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW MONDAY AFTN. THIS CAUSES A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE CONVECTION MIGHT NOT BE AS ORGANIZED
AS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE H5 LOW BEGINNING TO
FILL...THE MODELS DONT EJECT SIGNIFICANT ENERGY UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST DAYTIME HEATING TO DRIVE THE
CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...KEPT THE POPS IN CHC CATEGORY BECAUSE OF
THIS ON TUESDAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WONT BE AS TIGHT FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AS
THERE WERE ON SUNDAY. NRN COUNTIES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
60S...BUT THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 70S. BY
TUESDAY EVERYONE SHOULD BE IN TH MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CIRRUS AND A LITTLE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
MOISTENING BEGINS ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THINKING THAT A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER SRN IND/NRN KY AND WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD CVG/LUK WHILE BATTLING RESIDUAL DRY AIR. ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT THESE SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT
GREAT...MAINTAINED THE SMALL TEMPO GROUP AND PUSHED THIS BACK IN
TIME IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AT SITES
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
USED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. FEEL A LITTLE BETTER
ABOUT A BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE DRIVING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
MVFR VIS/CIG CURRENTLY THE WORST THAT IS EXPECTED...AND COULD END
UP LARGELY A VFR EVENT GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS OF LATE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARD SOUTH BY LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1035 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY. A LARGE...POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A PUSH OF
WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING EPISODES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
27.12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PRETTY CLEARLY THE IMPACT OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. STILL QUITE
MILD /+12C/ AT 850MB WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW BUT RATHER STRONG
COOLING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT CENTERED NEAR/BELOW 925MB WITH
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING RUNNING A GOOD
5-10F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AREA-WIDE...EVEN NEAR 15F OFF OF
YESTERDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS MAKES MAX TEMP FORECAST
TODAY TOUGH...AS DEPTH OF COOL AIR/EASTERLY FLOW DIMINISHES
TOWARD AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM JUST SOUTH OF EVANSVILLE TO SOUTH OF LEXINGTON.
RECENT RAP/HRRR ARE EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE IN PBL MIXING/WARMING
SUGGESTING TEMPS SOARING TO NEAR 80F AS FAR NORTH AS WILMINGTON -
AND THUS HAVE BEEN IGNORED. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG STATISTICAL
REGRESSION OF 925MB TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND RAW 2M TEMPS FROM
VARIOUS NWP THAT SUGGESTS GOING TEMPS ARE ON TRACK /NEAR HIGHER
END OF MOS/ WITH EXPECTED HIGHS FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 70S
FAR SOUTH. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...JUST NOT TO
DEGREE OF RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS. HAVE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT EASTERLY FLOW/SLOW
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL KEEP MANY AREAS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN FCST SO WILL WATCH. OTHER ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THIS EVE
IN SE IND/NRN KY. SOME RECENT HRRR /NAM-WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
BULLISH IN LEADING ARC OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT /THETA-E ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO THESE AREAS AROUND
SUNSET OR JUST AFTER. OTHER STORM SCALE GUIDANCE /OPERATIONAL AND
PARALLEL ARW-WRF/ STRONGLY DISAGREES AND BREAKS UP SHRA BEFORE
PENETRATING THE FORECAST AREA. DEGREE OF FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
ANEMIC...AND AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCANT. DID INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES IN FAR SWRN CORNER OF AREA THIS EVENING...BUT DIDN/T
ALLOW THAT PUSH TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WAITING UNTIL STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE/FORCING ON
MONDAY MORNING. SO TONIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN ERN
IND/NRN KY AND TREND DOWNWARD INTO OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT THE DEEP H5 LOW OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AN AREA SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ON MONDAY.
THIS INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH NE BY AFTN AND THERE MAY
BE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW MONDAY AFTN. THIS CAUSES A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE CONVECTION MIGHT NOT BE AS ORGANIZED
AS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE H5 LOW BEGINNING TO
FILL...THE MODELS DONT EJECT SIGNIFICANT ENERGY UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST DAYTIME HEATING TO DRIVE THE
CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...KEPT THE POPS IN CHC CATEGORY BECAUSE OF
THIS ON TUESDAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WONT BE AS TIGHT FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AS
THERE WERE ON SUNDAY. NRN COUNTIES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
60S...BUT THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 70S. BY
TUESDAY EVERYONE SHOULD BE IN TH MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE ESTABLISHED H5
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER
10KT WILL TURN EAST AT 10-14KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS NW-SE OVER THE REGION...A WAVE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED ON THE NAM TO FORCE SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THE
MID LEVELS AT KCVG/LUK AFTER ABOUT 2-3Z TONIGHT. THE VORT WEAKENS
AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE...PRIMARILY NOTED ON THE NAM. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SHOW PRECIP OVER FAR SW OH SPREADING NORTHEAST A BIT TOO
RAPIDLY FROM 6-12Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MUCH GIVEN THE
ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AT 12Z AND A CONTINUED
SUSTAINED SFC WIND FROM THE EAST AOA 12KT.
DRYING EAST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP ANY CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY
UNTIL RAIN BEGINS IN EARNEST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
206 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FRONT AND
BRINGS CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGE...POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH THIS PUSH OF SOUTHERLY AIR...WARMTH AND MOISTURE AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TAP FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT...
STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND 26.18Z RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY
SHOW POTENT UPPER LOW DIGGING/TURNING EAST NOW THROUGH AZ. THIS
HAS INDUCED STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM DRIVING THE
COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LATTER SYSTEM INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FORMER
SYSTEM OUT INTO COLORADO WILL ALLOW LARGE SCALE/AMPLIFIED RIDGING
INTO AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THESE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL ACT TO STALL THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING THROUGH
OHIO...WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP SOMEWHERE NEAR/ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. THERE IS A WEALTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION IN THE STRONGER SWLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SO FEEL TOMORROW WILL HAVE
MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...LIKELY SOME MID LEVEL AC AND CIRRUS AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS FIRST AT THOSE LEVELS THE RIDGE
CROSSES THE AREA. UNDERNEATH...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OHIO ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A DRY/EASTERLY
BREEZE WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
ESP NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE A TEMP
GRADIENT FROM NRN KY /SOUTH OF THE FRONT/ WHERE TEMPS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THE FACTOR OF EAST
WINDS...MORE CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. COULD BE A
SNEAKY BUST DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPS NOT WARMING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW QUITE STRONG THE FURTHER NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER ONE GOES.
FIRST WAVES OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVE /850-700MB/
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY IN LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD...AS
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS AS SURFACE LOW SWINGS
OUT INTO NEBRASKA AND DEEPENS AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES MATURITY
AND BECOMES CUT OFF. DESPITE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL LARGELY
BEING INTACT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THERE IS ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING WITH THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THAT EXPECT A SCT-BKN WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS TO EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING TO OUR
WEST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AT ALL...PER 26.12Z GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS...INSTBY IS MARGINAL /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE PARCELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER
WEAK. THESE SHOULD BE ELEVATED STORMS AND MAIN IMPACTS/THREATS
WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE CONTINUED
THE MENTION OF 60-75% RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AS THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LEAST WITH HOW STRONG THE PUSH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS AND THE REMAINING ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
ON MONDAY...THIS INITIAL WAVE OF ADVECTION-INDUCED SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY VERY
WELL HAVE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HARD TO TELL
FOR CERTAIN...WITH LARGE UPPER SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST...THE
ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER EASY TO SEE. BUT MOIST FLOW
AND CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOWER TROP SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY
TO BUILD AND THIS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR MAY VERY WELL BE FILLED
WITH A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. SO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY REMAIN UP FOR GRABS...THERE MAY BE LESS
RAIN COVERAGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD THAN CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS.
FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG/EAST OF
MS RIVER INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY WILL IGNITE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WHICH SHOULD INVOLVE THE LOCAL AREA AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE LARGE CNTL CONUS TROUGH. GIVEN THE DEEP MSLP WAY TO
THE WEST...LOW LEVEL WIND FLOWS WILL HAVE SOME COMPONENT OF
SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND
GIVEN FAST/SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESP IN THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTBY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO BUILD IN WAKE OF MONDAY MORNING
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POINT FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DECENT
EML TO STEEPEN TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE IS THUS
TALL/SKINNY AND OVERALL INSTBY STILL LOOKING MARGINAL. BUT SHEAR
WILL BE GOOD ESP WITH ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...SO IF ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEATING DEVELOPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SUBSEQUENT THREATS FOR SEVERE GO UP LATE MON
AFTN/NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY NOT TO GET
CARRIED AWAY...AND ACTUALLY GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS/PWAT
ANOMALIES THERE IS JUST AS MUCH CONCERN FOR A BAND OF
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONFLUENCE SETS
UP. SO WATCHING THIS PERIOD CLOSELY. DECIDED NOT TO GET CUTE IN
THE FORECAST...AND JUST RUNNING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN OVERALL ENSEMBLE
PROBS...DEEP MOISTURE...AND ARRIVAL OF TWO WAVES OF FORCING
MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE ESTABLISHED H5
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-9KT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL TURN EAST AT 10-14KT BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS SETTLES NW-SE OVER THE REGION...A WAVE OF
VORTICITY IS BEING PROGGED ON THE NAM TO FORCE SOME SHOWERS OUT OF
THE MID LEVELS AT KCVG/LUK AFTER ABOUT 2-3Z TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
VORT WEAKENS AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE...PRIMARILY NOTED ON THE
NAM. GFS AND EURO SHOW PRECIP OVER FAR SW OH AT 6Z...SPREADING
NORTHEAST A BIT TOO RAPIDLY AFTER 6Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
MUCH GIVEN THE ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AT 12Z.
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME BUT WILL
ONLY AFFECT KCVG AT THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION IS STRENGTHENING OFF OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT THE CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING. THE RUC IS DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH THE CLOUDS THAN THE NAM/GFS AND SHOWS SOME POSSIBLE EXPANSION
OFF THE WEST END OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TOWARDS TOLEDO. IT DOES SEEM LIKE SOME
BREAKS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO WHERE WINDS ARE 10-20 MPH.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOWN
BY A BAND OF CU FROM NEAR AOH TO HLG. BKN-OVC CLOUD HAD
REDEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT DRIER AIR MIXING
IN HAS ALLOWED THESE TO THIN AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIURNAL LOOK.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE CLOUD COVER NORTH IN ONTARIO AND
MICHIGAN. WHILE THESE HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WORKING SOUTH TODAY THE
NAM SHOWS FAVORABLE JET ENERGY OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING THE CLOUDS
SHIFTING INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST AGAIN OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES CLEAR TO
PC. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
HOWEVER EXPECT ON BALANCE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THAT GETS CLOSE
TO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER
UNTIL MONDAY. AS FOR MONDAY HIGH POPS SUPPORTED AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON CAPES OF 600-800 J/KG (SW COUNTIES) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
WEST AND LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH A
BLOCKING HIGH IN CANADA SETTING UP WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE COOL AND WET..WITH A SERIES OF LOWS ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT TIMING IT IN AND
OUT WITH THE SERIES OF TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT IS PRECARIOUS AT BEST.
FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU APPEARS TO BE GETTING SOME LAKE EFFECT HELP.
NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW LONG THIS WILL HANG AROUND BUT WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE OF IT A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AROUND NE OH AND NW PA. ONCE THE STRATOCU
DISSIPATES...SHOULD JUST SEE SCT DAYTIME CU TODAY WITH PATCHY HIGH
AND SOME MID CLOUDS THRU 06Z SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS FOR TOL AND FDY LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...ADDING TO THE NORMAL PICKUP DUE TO MIXING FROM DAYTIME
HEATING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY IN PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS AND WAVES WERE INCREASING AND THEN WILL DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE FORECASTED NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING UPDATED TO ADD A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. WAVES
WILL BE INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER DARK.
KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP UNTIL THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH
OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE. AFTER THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SET UP BY
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
444 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY...BUT
A BIG CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY BEHIND IT. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT INLAND VALLEYS
WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONCERNS HOVER AROUND SNOW IN
THE CASCADES TODAY...MINOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A
TRANSITION TO WELL ABOVE AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE CASCADES...WE
CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
STRETCHED OUT AND REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT EXTENDS
NORTH AND THEN WEST TO THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
SANTIAM PASS (4800 FT) IS SNOW COVERED...AND THE PASSES AROUND MT
HOOD THAT ARE CLOSER TO 4000 FEET IN ELEVATION LOOK LIKE THEY ARE
GETTING SOME ACCUMULATION NOW.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SOMEWHAT ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING IN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY.
PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW. THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE PASSES THIS MORNING...THOUGH RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE
HEAVY AT ANY ONE TIME AND ENOUGH TO GET TO 6" OTHER THAN UP AT THE
HIGHEST CASCADE ELEVATIONS. GFS HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM. RAP SHOWS LESS THAN 200 J/KG
AND IS MAXIMIZED IN THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SET UP FOR
SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL AND IF ONE SHOWER MAINTAINS ITSELF IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AT MOST. SREF
CALIBRATED PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS 40-50% IN THE NORTHERN
TIER...SO WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SO CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
BY TONIGHT THE UPPER JET WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...AND AS THIS OCCURS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND WILL WIDDLE DOWN
THE SHOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH STABILIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FOG BY MONDAY MORNING. LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE INITIAL SIGNS OF OUR UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE
BECOMES APPARENT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE
COAST. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION IS OCCURRING...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DIG. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE FEED OF
1+" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT
AS THIS IS OCCURRING. THERE IS SOME PRETTY STRONG LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INITIALLY WITH THIS WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN INLAND. THE MODELS ARE STILL MIXED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM/GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE...THE ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MAINLY DRY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SO WHILE NAM/GFS/SREF
HAVE BEEN SHOWING A TREND TOWARDS SOME LIGHT PRECIP...CAN ONLY GO
WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS AS THE ECMWF KEEPS INLAND AREAS DRY.
BEHIND THE FRONT ...SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST.
THE QUESTION AFTER THIS IS...HOW WARM WILL IT GET...AND WILL WE NEAR
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE SOME SHAPE OVER THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BEGIN AS TUESDAY WEARS ON. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS MODELED
TO BRING EASTERLY WIND ON WED...AND MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY APPROACH 80 AS WELL. THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU...LIKELY
ALLOWING SOME COOLING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST. BUT DECIDED TO BUMP
UP THE INTERIOR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN WED...WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID 80S. LOOKING AT AREA CLIMATE STATS...IT IS APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY MAKE A RUN AT SETTING SOME DAILY MAX TEMP
RECORDS ON WED AND THU. BY FRI...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MOVING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER EAST...WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROF
PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT THE FCST TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT AS IT SEEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE COOLING THINGS OFF ON THE DAY THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS
FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. STARTED BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BACK FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO PUSH
IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING RIDGE. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DECREASE
THIS EVENING. VFR PREVAILS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN THE 2000
TO 3000 FT RANGE SO FAR THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATING MVFR COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z SUN. BELIEVE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND NOT NEEDED AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MAY BRING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSLE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA MAY BRING BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS WELL. AIR MASS INSTABILTIY INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
HAIL OR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER 9 HOURS OUT...BUT WILL MONITOR AND MAKE
SHORT TERM UPDATES AS NEEDED.
&&
.MARINE...GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE EASING. HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND
MON. ON SAT MODELS PICKED UP ON A NEW FEATURE FOR MON AND CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO ROTATE A WARM FRONT TO THE
WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER MARINE ZONES. HIGH
PRES BUILDS TUE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER THE
WATERS WED.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE A TRANSITION FROM WINDWAVE DOMINATED TO FRESH
SWELL THEN FINALLY LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TODAY. SEAS APPEAR
TO REMAIN 10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
323 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY...BUT
A BIG CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY BEHIND IT. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT INLAND VALLEYS
WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONCERNS HOVER AROUND SNOW IN
THE CASCADES TODAY...MINOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A
TRANSITION TO WELL ABOVE AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE CASCADES...WE
CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
STRETCHED OUT AND REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT EXTENDS
NORTH AND THEN WEST TO THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
SANTIAM PASS (4800 FT) IS SNOW COVERED...AND THE PASSES AROUND MT
HOOD THAT ARE CLOSER TO 4000 FEET IN ELEVATION LOOK LIKE THEY ARE
GETTING SOME ACCUMULATION NOW.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SOMEWHAT ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING IN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY.
PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW. THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE PASSES THIS MORNING...THOUGH RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE
HEAVY AT ANY ONE TIME AND ENOUGH TO GET TO 6" OTHER THAN UP AT THE
HIGHEST CASCADE ELEVATIONS. GFS HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM. RAP SHOWS LESS THAN 200 J/KG
AND IS MAXIMIZED IN THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SET UP FOR
SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL AND IF ONE SHOWER MAINTAINS ITSELF IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AT MOST. SREF
CALIBRATED PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS 40-50% IN THE NORTHERN
TIER...SO WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SO CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
BY TONIGHT THE UPPER JET WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...AND AS THIS OCCURS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND WILL WIDDLE DOWN
THE SHOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH STABILIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FOG BY MONDAY MORNING. LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE INITIAL SIGNS OF OUR UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE
BECOMES APPARENT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE
COAST. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION IS OCCURRING...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DIG. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE FEED OF
1+" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT
AS THIS IS OCCURRING. THERE IS SOME PRETTY STRONG LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INITIALLY WITH THIS WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN INLAND. THE MODELS ARE STILL MIXED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM/GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE...THE ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MAINLY DRY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SO WHILE NAM/GFS/SREF
HAVE BEEN SHOWING A TREND TOWARDS SOME LIGHT PRECIP...CAN ONLY GO
WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS AS THE ECMWF KEEPS INLAND AREAS DRY.
BEHIND THE FRONT ...SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST.
THE QUESTION AFTER THIS IS...HOW WARM WILL IT GET...AND WILL WE NEAR
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE SOME SHAPE OVER THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BEGIN AS TUESDAY WEARS ON. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS MODELED
TO BRING EASTERLY WIND ON WED...AND MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY APPROACH 80 AS WELL. THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU...LIKELY
ALLOWING SOME COOLING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST. BUT DECIDED TO BUMP
UP THE INTERIOR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN WED...WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID 80S. LOOKING AT AREA CLIMATE STATS...IT IS APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY MAKE A RUN AT SETTING SOME DAILY MAX TEMP
RECORDS ON WED AND THU. BY FRI...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MOVING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER EAST...WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROF
PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT THE FCST TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT AS IT SEEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE COOLING THINGS OFF ON THE DAY THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS
FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. STARTED BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BACK FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO PUSH
IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING RIDGE. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DECREASE
THIS EVENING. VFR PREVAILS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN THE 2000
TO 3000 FT RANGE SO FAR THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATING MVFR COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z SUN. BELIEVE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND NOT NEEDED AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MAY BRING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSLE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA MAY BRING BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE EASING. HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND
MON. ON SAT MODELS PICKED UP ON A NEW FEATURE FOR MON AND CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO ROTATE A WARM FRONT TO THE
WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER MARINE ZONES. HIGH
PRES BUILDS TUE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER THE
WATERS WED.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE A TRANSITION FROM WINDWAVE DOMINATED TO FRESH
SWELL THEN FINALLY LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TODAY. SEAS APPEAR
TO REMAIN 10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1023 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
OHX VWP IS NOW SHOWING SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD WITH TIME IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE DRIER AIR IS ON THE WAY. THIS IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A CONTINUING DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS GRADUALLY WITH
TIME.
OTW...STILL NO IMMEDIATE THREAT ACROSS THE TOR WATCH AREA.
ACTIVITY OVER NRN AL IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING ANY
STRENGTH. STILL...A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO CANCEL THE WATCH SO WILL
LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.
FOR THE UPDATE...AGAIN WILL LOWER POPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
COVERAGE OVER THE MID STATE HAS DECREASED SOME AND IS MORE BROKEN
IN NATURE NOW. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE ALTHOUGH 850 MB WIND IS STILL REASONABLY
STRONG. STILL HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP HAS NOT MADE
MUCH OF AN ADVANCEMENT EASTWARD YET.
FURTHER EAST...CURRENTLY THE TOR WATCH AREA IS NOT UNDER AN
IMMEDIATE THREAT. HOWEVER...WE DO SEE SOME STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NW AL AT THIS TIME AND HELICITY VALUES OVER THE WATCH AREA
REMAIN ELEVATED. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING
FOR NOW. MAY BEGIN TO TAPER POPS ACROSS OUR WEST IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRENDS. OTW...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CSV AREA. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE CSV AND BNA AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH STRONG OR
SEVERE LIMITS NEAR CSV BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
09Z FOR CSV WITH A BREAK UNTIL 18Z ON TUESDAY WHEN TSTMS MAY FIRE
UP AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MARCHING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU. LAPS STILL SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF AMPLIFIED
HELICITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HELICITY STRENGTH IS ON
THE DOWN SLIDE. TOR WATCH NUMBER 111 WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
FOR NOW FOR THOSE 6 COUNTIES IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
OTW...BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM
CLARKSVILLE SW THROUGH LOBELVILLE. NO EASTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED
AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED.
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR WINNING OUT LATER
TONIGHT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE AN EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...PERHAPS A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD
STILL DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
FOR THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST LAPS DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS WHERE THE TOR WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CAPE
VALUES...SHOWALTERS ALL IN SUPPORT OF THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM
DICKSON COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH GILES COUNTY WITH AGAIN...THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
WE DO SEE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BACK
ACROSS WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DEGREE OF INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THUS...IT MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME DEVELOPING INTO SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THE IDEA OF NO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST CONVECTION.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS COULD CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
AS FOR THE FLOOD THREAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL EXISTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS UPPER LOW
LAGGING AND SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON THE NOSE OF A 115-KT UPPER JET HAS LED TO AMPLE PRECIP
ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS LED TO 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-40...WHERE RESIDUAL FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN AND WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ISSUE THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOON.
MORE INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING CONVECTION DROPPED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE POINTS NORTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE COLD POOL REGION...AND POINTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE. THIS BOUNDARY
EVEN CURLS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH
SFC CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SPC ISSUED A
PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 9PM. ANYTHING CLOSEST TO THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH MEANS A TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOES ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHERN
MS ALREADY...MOVING NE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. FYI...WE WILL ADD GRUNDY COUNTY TO THE WATCH AS WELL.
ALSO...NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAIL WILL BE THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
STORMS IN THE COLD POOL.
SUPERCELLS OVER MS SHOULD COAGULATE INTO A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN...AND POPS COULD
TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
AROUND 60.
ON TUESDAY...THE SFC LOW SHOULD ROTATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. WOULD THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD EASILY BE GENERATED...THIS TIME WITH MORE SHEAR ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW GETTING CLOSER. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE BEST THREAT. EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY-
SATURDAY IN THE 60S. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THURSDAY
ON...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
957 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.UPDATE...
COVERAGE OVER THE MID STATE HAS DECREASED SOME AND IS MORE BROKEN
IN NATURE NOW. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE ALTHOUGH 850 MB WIND IS STILL REASONABLY
STRONG. STILL HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP HAS NOT MADE
MUCH OF AN ADVANCEMENT EASTWARD YET.
FURTHER EAST...CURRENTLY THE TOR WATCH AREA IS NOT UNDER AN
IMMEDIATE THREAT. HOWEVER...WE DO SEE SOME STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NW AL AT THIS TIME AND HELICITY VALUES OVER THE WATCH AREA
REMAIN ELEVATED. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING
FOR NOW. MAY BEGIN TO TAPER POPS ACROSS OUR WEST IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRENDS. OTW...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CSV AREA. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE CSV AND BNA AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH STRONG OR
SEVERE LIMITS NEAR CSV BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
09Z FOR CSV WITH A BREAK UNTIL 18Z ON TUESDAY WHEN TSTMS MAY FIRE
UP AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MARCHING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU. LAPS STILL SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF AMPLIFIED
HELICITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HELICITY STRENGTH IS ON
THE DOWN SLIDE. TOR WATCH NUMBER 111 WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
FOR NOW FOR THOSE 6 COUNTIES IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
OTW...BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM
CLARKSVILLE SW THROUGH LOBELVILLE. NO EASTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED
AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED.
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR WINNING OUT LATER
TONIGHT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE AN EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...PERHAPS A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD
STILL DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
FOR THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST LAPS DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS WHERE THE TOR WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CAPE
VALUES...SHOWALTERS ALL IN SUPPORT OF THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM
DICKSON COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH GILES COUNTY WITH AGAIN...THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
WE DO SEE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BACK
ACROSS WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DEGREE OF INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THUS...IT MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME DEVELOPING INTO SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THE IDEA OF NO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST CONVECTION.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS COULD CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
AS FOR THE FLOOD THREAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL EXISTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS UPPER LOW
LAGGING AND SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON THE NOSE OF A 115-KT UPPER JET HAS LED TO AMPLE PRECIP
ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS LED TO 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-40...WHERE RESIDUAL FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN AND WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ISSUE THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOON.
MORE INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING CONVECTION DROPPED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE POINTS NORTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE COLD POOL REGION...AND POINTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE. THIS BOUNDARY
EVEN CURLS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH
SFC CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SPC ISSUED A
PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 9PM. ANYTHING CLOSEST TO THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH MEANS A TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOES ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHERN
MS ALREADY...MOVING NE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. FYI...WE WILL ADD GRUNDY COUNTY TO THE WATCH AS WELL.
ALSO...NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAIL WILL BE THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
STORMS IN THE COLD POOL.
SUPERCELLS OVER MS SHOULD COAGULATE INTO A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN...AND POPS COULD
TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
AROUND 60.
ON TUESDAY...THE SFC LOW SHOULD ROTATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. WOULD THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD EASILY BE GENERATED...THIS TIME WITH MORE SHEAR ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW GETTING CLOSER. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE BEST THREAT. EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY-
SATURDAY IN THE 60S. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THURSDAY
ON...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
816 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CSV AREA. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE CSV AND BNA AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH STRONG OR
SEVERE LIMITS NEAR CSV BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
09Z FOR CSV WITH A BREAK UNTIL 18Z ON TUESDAY WHEN TSTMS MAY FIRE
UP AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MARCHING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU. LAPS STILL SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF AMPLIFIED
HELICITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HELICITY STRENGTH IS ON
THE DOWN SLIDE. TOR WATCH NUMBER 111 WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
FOR NOW FOR THOSE 6 COUNTIES IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
OTW...BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM
CLARKSVILLE SW THROUGH LOBELVILLE. NO EASTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED
AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED.
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR WINNING OUT LATER
TONIGHT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE AN EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...PERHAPS A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD
STILL DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
FOR THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST LAPS DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS WHERE THE TOR WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CAPE
VALUES...SHOWALTERS ALL IN SUPPORT OF THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM
DICKSON COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH GILES COUNTY WITH AGAIN...THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
WE DO SEE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BACK
ACROSS WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DEGREE OF INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THUS...IT MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME DEVELOPING INTO SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THE IDEA OF NO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST CONVECTION.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS COULD CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
AS FOR THE FLOOD THREAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL EXISTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS UPPER LOW
LAGGING AND SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON THE NOSE OF A 115-KT UPPER JET HAS LED TO AMPLE PRECIP
ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS LED TO 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-40...WHERE RESIDUAL FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN AND WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ISSUE THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOON.
MORE INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING CONVECTION DROPPED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE POINTS NORTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE COLD POOL REGION...AND POINTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE. THIS BOUNDARY
EVEN CURLS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH
SFC CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SPC ISSUED A
PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 9PM. ANYTHING CLOSEST TO THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH MEANS A TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOES ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHERN
MS ALREADY...MOVING NE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. FYI...WE WILL ADD GRUNDY COUNTY TO THE WATCH AS WELL.
ALSO...NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAIL WILL BE THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
STORMS IN THE COLD POOL.
SUPERCELLS OVER MS SHOULD COAGULATE INTO A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN...AND POPS COULD
TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
AROUND 60.
ON TUESDAY...THE SFC LOW SHOULD ROTATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. WOULD THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD EASILY BE GENERATED...THIS TIME WITH MORE SHEAR ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW GETTING CLOSER. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE BEST THREAT. EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY-
SATURDAY IN THE 60S. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THURSDAY
ON...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
812 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.UPDATE...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MARCHING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU. LAPS STILL SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF AMPLIFIED
HELICITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HELICITY STRENGTH IS ON
THE DOWN SLIDE. TOR WATCH NUMBER 111 WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
FOR NOW FOR THOSE 6 COUNTIES IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
OTW...BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM
CLARKSVILLE SW THROUGH LOBELVILLE. NO EASTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED
AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED.
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR WINNING OUT LATER
TONIGHT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE AN EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...PERHAPS A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD
STILL DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
FOR THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST LAPS DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS WHERE THE TOR WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CAPE
VALUES...SHOWALTERS ALL IN SUPPORT OF THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM
DICKSON COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH GILES COUNTY WITH AGAIN...THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
WE DO SEE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BACK
ACROSS WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DEGREE OF INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THUS...IT MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME DEVELOPING INTO SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THE IDEA OF NO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST CONVECTION.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS COULD CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
AS FOR THE FLOOD THREAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
.SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL EXISTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS UPPER LOW
LAGGING AND SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON THE NOSE OF A 115-KT UPPER JET HAS LED TO AMPLE PRECIP
ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS LED TO 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-40...WHERE RESIDUAL FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN AND WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ISSUE THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOON.
MORE INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING CONVECTION DROPPED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE POINTS NORTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE COLD POOL REGION...AND POINTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE. THIS BOUNDARY
EVEN CURLS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH
SFC CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SPC ISSUED A
PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 9PM. ANYTHING CLOSEST TO THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH MEANS A TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOES ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHERN
MS ALREADY...MOVING NE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. FYI...WE WILL ADD GRUNDY COUNTY TO THE WATCH AS WELL.
ALSO...NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAIL WILL BE THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
STORMS IN THE COLD POOL.
SUPERCELLS OVER MS SHOULD COAGULATE INTO A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN...AND POPS COULD
TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
AROUND 60.
ON TUESDAY...THE SFC LOW SHOULD ROTATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. WOULD THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD EASILY BE GENERATED...THIS TIME WITH MORE SHEAR ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW GETTING CLOSER. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE BEST THREAT. EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY-
SATURDAY IN THE 60S. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THURSDAY
ON...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
127 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IS
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY WARM FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT
AND CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNSTABLE. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRY
LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE SUPERCELLS
MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 8 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY
ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT TSRAS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AT
KMKL...KJBR AND KMEM WITH MVFR OCNL IFR CONDS. AS THE FRONT AND
TSRAS LIFT NORTH VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TEMPORARILY BEFORE THE
NEXT LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS PUSH IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE PUSH IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR OCNL
IFR CONDS. BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF
SHRAS AND TSRAS TO SHIFT EAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. TSRAS
MAY START REDEVELOPING BY MID MORNING ON MON SO INCLUDED A VCTS
TO INDICATE THAT POSSIBILITY.
SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...AND SSW BY MON MORNING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IS
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY WARM FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT
AND CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNSTABLE. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRY
LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE SUPERCELLS
MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 8 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY
ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CONDITIONS WILL START OFF...WITH TEMPO MVFR WEATHER AS FIRST LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE NEXT STRONGER LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN FALL TO TEMPO IFR...WITH A TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINATE IFR/MVFR VERY LATE IN THE CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS AT
8-12KTS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 22-26KT RANGE CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-
DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-
PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
639 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY
ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CONDITIONS WILL START OFF...WITH TEMPO MVFR WEATHER AS FIRST LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE NEXT STRONGER LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN FALL TO TEMPO IFR...WITH A TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINATE IFR/MVFR VERY LATE IN THE CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS AT
8-12KTS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 22-26KT RANGE CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY
ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTH AND BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH LATE TOMORROW. WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF VICINITY THUNDER AT MEM FROM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PREVAILING IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...WILL ADD PREVAILING THUNDER AT MEM AT 00Z AND CARRY
IT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. PREVAILING THUNDER WILL START
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AT JBR AND 2-3 HOURS LATER AT MKL AND TUP.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND VIS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. WILL
CARRY 3SM IN PREVAILING THUNDER. EXPECT NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS BASED ON
RADAR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...APPROACH AND MOVE AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY GENERALLY 10 KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS /WSR-88D VAD
WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF 8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM KLZK/KSGF SHOW AN 850-800 MB CAPPING INVERSION
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS WEAKER AT KJAN/KSHV.
LATEST 00Z WRF IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO COME IN AND THUS FAR
INDICATES THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z WRF
AGREES WITH THE 26/23Z HRRR RUN THUS FAR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF POPS SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE OVERALL.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM...MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER IN THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND
EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AFTER 10 AM. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE WARM MOIST AIR MAY CAUSE A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH EAST BY 4 PM THUS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
EAST BY THIS TIME.
SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN ARKANSAS
BETWEEN 7-9 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...QUESTIONS
EMERGE IF THEY WILL REMAIN SEVERE DUE TO WAINING INSTABILITY.
ON MONDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT THE DRY LINE
TO HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LINE WILL BE THE SOURCE OF REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN QUESTIONS
EMERGE ON IF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SEVERE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS INSTABILITY WAINS.
ON TUESDAY...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO ALABAMA/MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WIDESPREAD THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY TIME FRAME AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER
AROUND THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTH AND BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH LATE TOMORROW. WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF VICINITY THUNDER AT MEM FROM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PREVAILING IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...WILL ADD PREVAILING THUNDER AT MEM AT 00Z AND CARRY
IT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. PREVAILING THUNDER WILL START
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AT JBR AND 2-3 HOURS LATER AT MKL AND TUP.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND VIS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. WILL
CARRY 3SM IN PREVAILING THUNDER. EXPECT NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS BASED ON
RADAR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...APPROACH AND MOVE AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY GENERALLY 10 KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
741 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT HAS REVERSED AND WAS MOVING INLAND AT 730
PM. DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WERE IN THE
MID 30S...WHILE TO ITS SOUTHEAST THE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER
70S. A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN BE FELT WHEREVER
THE BOUNDARY CROSSES.
THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. STILL THINK PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK THE DEWPOINT AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR IMAGERY AND EVEN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DRY LINE PUSHING BACK NORTH WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND DRY NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH BACK NORTH AND
SHOULD SEE A RAPID RISE IN SFC MOISTURE AS IT DOES. MAY GET SOME
LOW STRATUS OR EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. DO NOT
THINK THERE WILL BE VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS AS THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MIXING OVERNIGHT. STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAINLY NW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BE GUSTY. SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND THE DRY LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE CITY OF HOUSTON.
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT THIS EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INLAND.
MOST LIKELY IT SHOULD STALL OUT AROUND A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE DRY LINE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT PUTTING IT AT THE COAST AROUND NOON WHILE
THE ECMWF AND NAM PUT THE FRONT AT THE COAST CLOSER TO 6 PM. HAVE
CONTINUED TO PREFER THE ECMWF TIMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
COULD VARY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT ONE IS ON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK VERY NICE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING ON
THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN FRIDAY MORNING. THE EURO HAD BEEN HINTING AT SOME
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT HAS SINCE
BACKED OFF. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. KEPT WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS AND REDUCED POPS. 23
MARINE...
WEAKENING WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED IN IT WAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE
NEEDED...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 82 49 74 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 86 53 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 84 62 76 60 / 10 20 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DRY LINE CLEARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY LINE IS NOW JUST AT DALLAS- FORT WORTH AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OVER DUE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CAP HAS
REMAINED STRONG. A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING LAUNCH FROM TEXAS A&M
SHOWS A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE AT 750 MB. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FROM THIS SOUNDING IS IN THE MID 90S WHICH IS VERY
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE HRRR
AND TEXAS TECH WRF DO TRY TO DEVELOP SOMETHING IN HOUSTON COUNTY
BUT QUICKLY MOVE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALSO APPEARS TO BE NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS AND THE MENTION OF SEVERE.
TOMORROW THE DRY LINE WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY
ALONG A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HARRIS TO SAN JANCINTO COUNTY.
BEHIND THE DRY LINE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S LOOKS LIKELY. NEAR THE COAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CHECKED DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. TUESDAY MORNING THE DRY LINE
WILL START TO RETREAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
QUICK WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND NAM 12 ARE
SLOWER. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE EURO AS FRONTS USUALLY SLOW DOWN
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH THE OCCLUDING MID- LATITUDE
CYCLONE.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHWARDS
HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PUSH A WEAK WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE VORT MAX MOVES SOUTHWARDS
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME QPF. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT THE CHANCE COMPLETELY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH THIS. 23
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE BAYS...AND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
COME DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
CAUTION FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 91 62 82 51 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 91 68 86 55 / 20 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 82 72 82 62 / 20 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
The Pacific cold front is visible on the west TX radars and
continues to move east toward the CWA. With CINH increasing with the
loss of surface heating, any potential precipitation will be tied to
the interaction of the front with the shallow, moist airmass in
place across the region. Confidence is low that we`ll see storms
develop along the boundary, but there is enough of a threat that
we`ve opted to leave in a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Gusty south winds will veer to the southwest late tonight, becoming
westerly at 25-35 mph (gusting up to 45 mph at times) by
mid-morning. The combination of these strong winds, warm
temperatures, and relative humidities near 10 percent will result in
dangerous fire weather conditions through sunset. The current Red
Flag Warning looks good. We`re also on track with the Wind Advisory
for tomorrow, with the strongest winds expected over the Big Country
and Concho Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Showers and thunderstorms have had a difficult time materializing
across the forecast area and chances continue to diminish that we
will see anything during the overnight period. While convection
cannot be ruled out, I did remove any mention of thunder from the
06z TAF package. Low clouds are expected to move into the
northwest Hill Country for a few hours tonight, primarily in the
area of KBBD and KJCT. I included MVFR ceilings for a few hours.
Winds will veer to the southwest late tonight as a Pacific cold
front moves into the area. This front has moved into West TX and
can be seen on the latest radar imagery. By 15z, sustained
westerly crosswinds winds of 20-25 kts are expected across West
Central TX. Gusts will generally be in the 30-35 kt range, but
KABI/KSJT may see occasional gusts approaching 40 kts. Thus, an
Airport Weather Warning will likely be required for KABI. Blowing
dust is expected across the area, which may reduce visibilities at
times. Wind speeds will decrease after 00z, maintaining a general
westerly component.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
The primary concern regarding the 00z TAF package is the potential
for convection during the evening and overnight hours. Model
guidance continues to be all over the place, ranging from
isolated evening thunderstorms becoming more widespread overnight,
to basically nothing. We have a few cells developing at this time
and I think the latter solution is more likely with the best
chance of precipitation occurring across the Big Country. I do
have VCTS included for a few hours at KABI but left the remaining
sites dry for now. Additional development of thunderstorms is
possible overnight as a Pacific cold front moves across the CWA, but
confidence remains low.
We`ll see gusty winds overnight with low-level moisture increasing
ahead of the Pacific cold front. I expect MVFR ceilings to affect
KJCT and KBBD for a few hours after midnight but strong west winds
will bring much drier air in from west TX, quickly shunting that
moisture off to the east. Sustained westerly winds of 20-30 kts,
gusting to around 35 kts, are expected tomorrow at KSJT and KABI
with slightly lower wind speeds at the remaining terminals. The
result will be strong west to east crosswinds and patchy blowing
dust causing occasional visibility reductions. An Airport Weather
Warning will likely be issued later for KABI due to these
strong winds.
Johnson
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Conditionally severe thunderstorm threat tonight, mainly in the
Big Country and Concho Valley. West Central Texas is certainly
unstable with RUC SB CAPES up to 3000 J/KG, but warm air aloft may
prevent storms from occurring. Surface Observations show only weak
low level convergence along the dryline. Some virga indicated in
the Big Country from Abilene to west of Wichita Falls, but the mid
level instability associated with it appears to be fairly high,
above 10000 FT AGL.
Both the GFS and the HRRR models develop isolated storms in the
Big Country this evening, with the GFS the only one to develop
storms later tonight, as a Pacific front catches up with dryline
towards midnight. Region should become more unstable as cooler air
aloft moves in as an upper trough approaches. There will also be
stronger low level convergence, with west winds behind the Pacific
front. But storm development is still conditional.
Strong downslope west warming winds expected Sunday behind the
Pacific Front. Should see Wind Advisory criteria of 25 to 35 mph,
with gusts to 45 mph by mid-morning. Have a Red Flag Warning for
dangerous fire conditions from 11 AM to 10 PM.
FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning for fire weather is in effect for West Central
Texas from 11 AM to 10 PM.
Dangerous fire weather conditions Sunday as the dryline and
Pacific front sweep through, bringing dry and windy west winds
Minimum RH values will fall near 10 percent with 20 foot west
winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Added Mason and San Saba
counties to the Red Flag Warning as 20 foot winds will be close to
20 mph.
Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected Monday due to
gusty west winds and very dry conditions.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Warm and dry weather will prevail on Monday, with cooler
temperatures Tuesday through next Friday.
The large closed upper low will be centered over the Central
Plains late this weekend, and will move slowly northeast to the
Great Lakes region by mid week. Associated surface low currently
over eastern Colorado this evening, will move northeast into
eastern Nebraska Sunday evening. Monday will be another warm day
with gusty west winds once again with afternoon highs in the mid
and upper 80s. A cold front will move across the area Monday
night, bringing much cooler temperatures for Tuesday, with highs
mainly in the 70s.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the area Tuesday through
much of next week. A persistent surface ridge will remain in place
and will result in unseasonably cool temperatures for West
Central Texas through Friday. High temperatures through Friday
will be mainly in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
Warmer weather is expected next weekend with near seasonal
temperatures. No rain is forecast through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 88 51 83 48 / 40 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 63 90 51 88 49 / 30 0 0 0 0
Junction 66 92 50 90 47 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.
&&
$$
25
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WRN CWA. 19Z HRRR HANDLING THIS PRETTY
WELL AND WILL SEE THINGS DRYING OUT OVER THE FAR WRN CWA WHILE THE
MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS HEADS ENE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH 8-9 PM. CONVECTION WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO THE
WEDGE OF STABLE AIR LOCATED MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 IN VA/SRN
WV. MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO TEMPS/SKY COVER AS WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS OVER NC EARLY ON. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MAKES INTO THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
DEEP UPPER LOW NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ONLY
REACHING EASTERN IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY. BUT UPPER LOW IS SO LARGE
AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO RESULT IN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACK OVER THE RIDGE BUT CHALLENGING TO TIMING OF THESE SMALL
FEATURES. BUT MODELS LINE UP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. WILL STAY WITH A
CATEGORICAL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ERODE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AND BRING BETTER INSTABILITY
AND CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREA WITH HIGHEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH INCREASED
SHEAR ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR EVENING VALUES.
WILL HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE
BUT MORE SO BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AS USUAL...MAX
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF THE WEDGE AND THE
RESULTING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. MET GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WEDGE
FOR TUESDAY BUT WILL BE ADJUSTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM EST MONDAY...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST AROUND LARGE
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...BUT WEDGE MAY REMAIN IN PLACE INITIALLY
OR ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...SO SEVERE WX THREAT TUES NIGHT REMAIN
UNCLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY ACROSS PIEDMONT INITIALLY.
HEAVY RAIN WITH SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AND LIFT OVER WEDGE IS LIKELY A
BIGGER ISSUE OVERALL...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES LOCALLY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR BLUE RIDGE. SOME INDICATIONS ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS COULD
THEN MOVE IN VERY EARLY WED MORNING...BUT 12Z MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE ON THAT IDEA...WITH MORE LIKELY TIMING BEING MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRONG SSW FLOW JUST ABOVE
STABLE LAYER EARLY WED MORNING...COMBINED WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN
BANDS...LIKELY TO MIX SHALLOW WEDGE OUT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THEN WILL BE DEVELOPING IN
UNSTABLE SFC-BASED AIRMASS..WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT WITH DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. WINDS...HAIL...BUT THIS WOULD BE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUR AREA THIS WEEK. WILL NEED
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING...AND COMBINED
WITH ONGOING FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND THEN EVENTUALLY RIVER FLOOD
THREAT (SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW)...COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS COULD WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS AS WEDGE
BREAKS..BUT AT THIS POINT THIS LEVEL OF DETAIL IS HARD TO DEPICT
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW SOON THIS MAY HAPPEN. COULD BE
CLOSE TO MORNING.
MODELS A LITTLE FASTER KICKING STORMS EAST BY LATE WED
EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN SLOPES OF
APPALACHIANS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY...BUT NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
A LITTLE DELAYED UNTIL THURS NIGHT. STILL MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1PM EDT MONDAY...
12Z GFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE EURO FOR THE EXTENDED SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING IN THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PATTERN TO MIGRATE FROM A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY TO A SLOW MOVING BROAD TROF
WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTER RECONFIGURING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE TROF AXIS TO FINALLY MOVE TO OUR EAST LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD FLAT HIGH BUILDING WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A HIGHER CHC OF UPSLOPE
SHOWERS AS THE SHORT WAVE KICKER ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF AND A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY CARRY OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
IN THE COLD POOL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND IT LOOKS LIKE DECENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS TO
CONSIDER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SINCE THE LETHARGIC GROWING SEASON WILL
HOPEFULLY BE UNDERWAY BY THEN.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WE WILL WIND UP WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER US WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST MON AND TUE.
BELIEVE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AFFECT THE AREA BUT DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST AND WILL
NOT ATTEMPT TO GET FANCY THAT FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST...AS WEDGE WILL HOLD CIGS
AND SOME VSBYS DOWN AT ALL TAF SITES. EXCEPTION AT TIMES WILL BE
BLF WHICH HANGS RIGHT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT.
EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS SOME HEAVY MOVE ACROSS DAN/LYH BEFORE
EXITING. KEEPING A BREAK IN THE RAIN WITH MAINLY DRIZZLE AND/OR
FOG. NEXT ROUND ARRIVES AFTER 05Z-07Z...WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT SEEING ANYTHING IMPROVING
ABOVE MVFR THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NE-SE.
SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT BLF AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO INCREASE MORE THAN 10-12 KNOTS.
BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY
DRIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA. APPEARS
ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT TO PERHAPS SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE
EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MVFR LIKELY LINGERING AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SE WEST VA LOCATIONS INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
PATTERN SETTING UP WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE STRONG SIGNALS FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAIN
FROM MONDAY AND TONIGHT WILL MOISTEN THE GROUND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MORE RAIN...THE
HIGHER THE THREAT. WITH WIDESPREAD TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING BY MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK. BUT STILL TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
RIVERS AND HOW WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE. STAY TUNED.
LATEST RUNS OF ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECAST FROM THE GEFS AND THE NAEFS
WERE SUGGESTING AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
ON THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AND ON THE ROANOKE AT RANDOLPH.
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>018-022-032-033.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ019-020-023-024-034-035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/SK
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
241 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
A CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND THE 80S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY FOR SLIGHT
COOLING...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER NW
OREGON. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF LIGHTNING...THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL FROM THE COAST
TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THOUGH ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PUSH THE SHORTWAVE NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.
SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AND WEB CAMERAS ARE SHOWING
SNOW COVERING THE ROADS AT MANY OF THE CASCADE PASSES. SNOW RATES
HAVE MAINTAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000
FEET...BUT EXPECT OVER A FOOT OF SNOW AT ABOVE 5000 FEET BY THE END
OF TONIGHT.
WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE ANY LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS STILL VARY ON
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE RAIN WITH ECMWF THE DRIEST AND GFS AND NAM
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF ACROSS NW OREGON. STILL THINK THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LEFT THE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE COAST AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. MODELED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 15C
UNDER A 582 DAM 500 MB RIDGE. A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
SUPPORT OFFSHORE WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMING FOR THE COAST.
EXPECT INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
FCST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER. THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE OFFSHORE
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU. THU CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE
SOME LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT COOL THINGS OFF A BIT. FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS...WILL KEEP MID 80S IN THE FCST FOR HIGHS . THEN
THE THERMAL TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING THE COOLING PROCESS. THE HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHORT OF THU. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND MOVE E
NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AT
SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...COOL MOIST W FLOW ALOFT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS BUT EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
UNDER THE SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS WILL HAVE SMALL
HAIL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL 03Z.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z...THEN SOME CLEARING. WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MON AM AS WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNTIL 03Z...THEN SHOWERS DECREASING AND
CLOUDS BREAKING UP. AS AIR MASS STABILIZES OVERNIGHT..MAY HAVE
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 12Z. ROCKEY
&&
.MARINE...COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH PRES GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED...WILL STILL
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT UNDER THE SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SEAS GENERALLY HOLDING AT 9 TO 10 FT.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MON
AND MON NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MAINLY 10 NM AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE. AFTERWARDS...HIGH PRES BUILDS WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR WED
THROUGH SAT. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MON ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 7 PM TODAY...AND AGAIN 3 AM TO 8 AM MON.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and showery weather will linger into Monday but overall will
be not as widespread as the wet weather that occurred over the
weekend. Much drier and warmer weather will develop Tuesday
through Friday as strong high pressure builds over the region.
Warm weather is expected to peak Thursday and Friday with high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average. High pressure is
expected to gradually break down next weekend ushering in a
cooling trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level trough will remain over
Central and Eastern Washington into North Idaho this evening
before moving into Montana on Monday. For this evening the
atmosphere will remain moist and unstable over the northern
mountains, the eastern third of Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle. Models show uncapped CAPE values of 300-600 J/KG with
the best instability over the Okanogan Highlands, Northeast
Washington Mountains, Spokane area, and Palouse where sunbreaks
have helped destabilize the atmosphere. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected through early this evening in these areas with small
hail or graupel expected with these storms. Across North Central
Washington strong downslope flow off the Cascades should result in
dry conditions for Wenatchee and Moses Lake. Showers will decrease
across the region after sunset with the loss of daytime heating
but will persist over the Central Panhandle Mountains and possibly
the Camas Prairie during the overnight hours with moist, unstable
northwest flow. On Monday the mid levels of the atmosphere will
warm as the trough moves east of the region. However models show
shallow convection developing over the higher terrain of the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle during the afternoon.
Elsewhere dry conditions are likely on Monday as the beginning of
a warming trend takes place. JW
Monday night through Wednesday...High pressure will build in from
the west Monday night and strengthen through the week. This will
result in a warming and drying trend. A few showers will linger
across the the central and north Idaho Panhandle mountains Monday
evening. And a weak disturbance is expected to move into the ridge
on Monday night but will get sheared apart. The effect on sensible
weather will be some variable high clouds over the Cascade.
Otherwise look for warm sunny days and clear cool nights.
Temperatures on Tuesday will warm into the 60s and low 70s and on
Wednesday mainly lowers 70s. The temperatures Wednesday will be
5-10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals. Winds will be mainly
light and diurnally driven. /Tobin
Thursday: Warm and dry weather will continue for at least one
more day. The high amplitude ridge still remains quite stout,
with lots of sun and temperatures in the 70s common. Upper 70s and
lower 80s will also be possible over the deep Columbia Basin.
Friday through Sunday night: While Friday will still be mostly
warm and dry, there are signs that the ridge will begin to break
down and some more unsettled weather will return once again. There
are a couple main players that will affect what happens in the far
extended portion of the forecast. One is a well-defined low
pressure that will move east toward the Pacific Northwest. The
other is a weather disturbance that rotates south around a Hudson
Bay low trough. The break-down of the ridge will depend on how far
east the Pacific low pressure gets and/or how far west the Hudson
Bay short-wave is located. The latest runs of the extended models
are in decent agreement (finally) that both will move close enough
to the Inland Northwest that the ridge will be pushed sufficiently
far enough south and east to open up at least some chances for
precipitation. Have gone ahead and nudged chances up further for
the weekend into early the following week. Right now it looks like
the best chances will be over the higher terrain of northeast
Washington and the northern/central Idaho Panhandle.
And finally, while the ridge break-down is agreed upon by the
models, the resulting end location of the Pacific cut-off low
pressure is still in question. Went with the status-quo for now
with plenty of time (and nice weather) to look into this.
As far as temperatures go, a general decrease in temperatures will
occur each day beginning Friday, with more normal early May
temperatures expected by late in the weekend. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An unstable air mass associated with an upper level
trough will promote cumulus buildups through the afternoon with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Downslope flow off
the Cascades will result in most of this activity over the eastern
third of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Meanwhile tightening
pressure gradient and good afternoon mixing over Central
Washington extending into Spokane and Pullman will result in
breezy winds mainly during the afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 54 35 63 39 71 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 31 53 31 62 37 70 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 31 52 32 61 38 69 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 37 58 37 67 42 75 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Colville 31 60 32 69 37 75 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 32 50 29 63 36 69 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 33 49 32 62 38 68 / 70 30 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 33 63 37 69 42 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 40 64 42 71 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 32 62 32 70 40 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers are expected today over north Idaho and
eastern Washington. The showery weather today will be accompanied
by cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions this
afternoon. Drier and warmer weather will develop on Tuesday, and
much above average temperatures are expected Wednesday through at
least Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level wave over Northeast Washington will move into
North Idaho this morning into the early afternoon bringing
widespread showers. A combination of moderate precipitation
intensity...and wet bulb cooling has allowed snow levels to drop
as low as 1500-2000 feet over Pend Oreille and Stevens counties
with a report of 1.6" of snow near Clayton, with accumulations
also reported in Newport and on Loon Lake Summit. As temperatures
warm through the morning this snow will change to a rain/snow mix
in the valleys and thus the window for additional accumulations is
narrow and by 9-10 am most of what has fallen should begin to melt
as temperatures rise above freezing. However in the mountains snow
will continue with as much as 2-3 inches possible.
Meanwhile behind this wave downslope flow has developed in the
lee of the Cascades and thus have removed the chance of showers
for the morning in Wenatchee.
For this afternoon the atmosphere will destabilize with a 500mb
cold pool of -32C over the area. SPC Calibrated thunder chances
show the best chances for thunderstorms over the eastern third of
Washington where a combination of afternoon sun breaks and
lingering low level moisture will result in the highest CAPE
values ranging from 300-600 J/KG. Over North Central Washington as
the lower levels continue to dry due to downslope off the Cascades
cloud bases will rise to where any developing cumulus clouds will
be composed of mainly ice crystals with the needed charge
separation for thunder unlikely. The HRRR also shows less
intensity to the showers in these areas for the afternoon. Thus
have removed the slight chance of thunderstorms through the
evening for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An unstable air mass associated with an upper level
trough will promote cumulus buildups through the afternoon with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Downslope flow off
the Cascades will result in most of this activity over the eastern
third of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Meanwhile tightening
pressure gradient and good afternoon mixing over Central
Washington extending into Spokane and Pullman will result in
breezy winds mainly during the afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 32 54 36 63 40 / 70 20 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 49 29 53 33 63 35 / 90 60 20 0 0 0
Pullman 50 32 52 33 62 37 / 90 50 20 0 0 0
Lewiston 56 32 58 38 68 41 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 55 26 60 35 68 38 / 80 50 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 46 29 50 32 61 34 / 90 60 20 10 0 0
Kellogg 45 29 49 34 61 40 / 90 90 30 10 0 0
Moses Lake 60 34 63 39 68 40 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 58 35 64 44 69 45 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 58 30 62 35 68 38 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
838 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY...BUT
A CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE THE 70S.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW 80S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. ANOTHER WARM DAY
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWERS ARE COMING IN WITH EARNEST
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE THAT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY ADDING TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS.SMALL
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND THERE MAY EVEN
BE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE...MAINLY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET...SO THE CASCADES
WILL KEEP GETTING NEW SNOW...THOUGH RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE HEAVY AT
ANY ONE TIME AND ENOUGH TO GET TO 6" OTHER THAN UP AT THE HIGHEST
CASCADE ELEVATIONS.
BY TONIGHT THE UPPER JET WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...AND AS THIS OCCURS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND WILL WIDDLE DOWN
THE SHOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH STABILIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FOG BY MONDAY MORNING.
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL SIGNS OF OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BECOMES APPARENT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION IS
OCCURRING...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG. IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH
A MODEST MOISTURE FEED OF 1+" PRECIPITABLE WATER. MODELS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INITIALLY WITH THIS WARM FRONT...BUT ARE
STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE THE
FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM/GFS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
FRONTOGENESIS AND RAIN...WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY AND A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SET UP WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
HARTLEY/KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW
WILL BRING DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WED AND THU. A
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS MODELED TO BRING EASTERLY WIND ON
WED...AND MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE LOW 80S. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME COASTAL
SPOTS MAY APPROACH 80 AS WELL. THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU...LIKELY ALLOWING SOME COOLING ONSHORE FLOW
AT THE COAST. BUT DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE INTERIOR TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WED...WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S. LOOKING AT
AREA CLIMATE STATS...IT IS APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY MAKE A RUN AT
SETTING SOME DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS ON WED AND THU. BY FRI...THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER
EAST...WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROF PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COOLING ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT AS
IT SEEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE COOLING THINGS OFF
ON THE DAY THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
STARTED BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO PUSH IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...COOL MOIST W FLOW ALOFT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT BRIEF MVFR UNDER THE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL HAVE SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL 03Z. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z...WITH SOME CLEARING AT THAT TIME. LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNTIL 02Z.
AFTER 02Z...SHOWERS DECREASING. ROCKEY
&&
.MARINE...COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH PRES GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED...WILL STILL
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT UNDER THE SHOWERS TODAY. SEAS GENERALLY
HOLDING AT 9 TO 10 FT.
HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ROTATE A WARM FRONT ACROSS WATERS LATE MON THIS MAY BRING PERIOD
OF S TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS TUE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE
COAST WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR WED THROUGH FRI. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
816 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers are expected today over north Idaho and
eastern Washington. The showery weather today will be accompanied
by cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions this
afternoon. Drier and warmer weather will develop on Tuesday, and
much above average temperatures are expected Wednesday through at
least Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level wave over Northeast Washington will move into
North Idaho this morning into the early afternoon bringing
widespread showers. A combination of moderate precipitation
intensity...and wet bulb cooling has allowed snow levels to drop
as low as 1500-2000 feet over Pend Oreille and Stevens counties
with a report of 1.6" of snow near Clayton, with accumulations
also reported in Newport and on Loon Lake Summit. As temperatures
warm through the morning this snow will change to a rain/snow mix
in the valleys and thus the window for additional accumulations is
narrow and by 9-10 am most of what has fallen should begin to melt
as temperatures rise above freezing. However in the mountains snow
will continue with as much as 2-3 inches possible.
Meanwhile behind this wave downslope flow has developed in the
lee of the Cascades and thus have removed the chance of showers
for the morning in Wenatchee.
For this afternoon the atmosphere will destabilize with a 500mb
cold pool of -32C over the area. SPC Calibrated thunder chances
show the best chances for thunderstorms over the eastern third of
Washington where a combination of afternoon sun breaks and
lingering low level moisture will result in the highest CAPE
values ranging from 300-600 J/KG. Over North Central Washington as
the lower levels continue to dry due to downslope off the Cascades
cloud bases will rise to where any developing cumulus clouds will
be composed of mainly ice crystals with the needed charge
separation for thunder unlikely. The HRRR also shows less
intensity to the showers in these areas for the afternoon. Thus
have removed the slight chance of thunderstorms through the
evening for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An occluded front will continue to slowly push across
the region this morning spreading precipitation from southwest to
northeast across the aviation area. Some snow may mix in with the
rain at times and briefly accumulate above 2100 feet this morning.
The atmosphere will destabilize in the afternoon and evening and
may allow a few weak pulse thunderstorms to occur. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 32 54 36 63 40 / 80 20 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 50 29 53 33 63 35 / 90 60 20 0 0 0
Pullman 50 32 52 33 62 37 / 90 50 20 0 0 0
Lewiston 56 32 58 38 68 41 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 55 26 60 35 68 38 / 80 50 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 48 29 50 32 61 34 / 90 60 20 10 0 0
Kellogg 46 29 49 34 61 40 / 90 90 30 10 0 0
Moses Lake 60 34 63 39 68 40 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 58 35 64 44 69 45 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 58 30 62 35 68 38 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
SURFACE DATA THIS EVENING SHOWING SOME VERY DRY AIR HAS SETTLED
OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS OVER VILAS
AND FLORENCE COUNTIES WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 30S OVER RHI.
TEMPS RATHER MILD LATE THIS EVENING BUT ADDED A BRIEF MIX FAR
NORTH DUE TO EVAP COOLING AFFECTS AS THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AND
STUBBORN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IS RISING OVER THE 850MB FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AN
ARCING BAND OF RAIN FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLOWING LIFTING NORTH TODAY WITH
ASSISTANCE FROM A SHORTWAVE LOBE OVER IOWA...WHICH IS ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT CYCLONE. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
AND COULD REACH THE U.P BORDER BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS BEEN DRY SO FAR TODAY WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER 50S...BUT THIS SHOULD END SOON. PRECIP TRENDS AND
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW JAUNT TO THE EAST. EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW...850MB
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WHILE THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
PWAT MAXIMUM BAND TO SUPPORT THE ARCING BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAT WILL LIKELY AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING.
AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS...PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW FLAKES
TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. PERHAPS COULD SEE A LITTLE COATING ON
GRASSY SURFACES BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
HARD TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AND ACTUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FOX VALLEY AS THE
TRAJECTORIES TURN NORTHEAST AND FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. WILL HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES SYNOPTICALLY. WILL HAVE A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH A 850MB TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BRING BREAKS IN THE RAIN AND DIMINISHING WINDS
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE PM HOURS...BUT
EXPECT THE STEADY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN WILL STILL HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
APPEARS POSSIBLE. HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFT
EAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PCPN SHOULD ALREADY HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE CWA (MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...BUT A HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO THE VARIOUS S/W TROFS
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MULTI-
MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN BROADBRUSH LIKELY POPS FROM TUES NGT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE ALMOST ALL RAIN...BUT KEPT A MIX
IN OVER VILAS CO LATE WED NGT/EARLY THU.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OCNL
S/W TROFS AND WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL POPS ARE
WARRANTED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING SOME OF THE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM SLOWLY CHURNING ACROSS MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF
SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ON
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CIGS
MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.
COMPACT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ENSURE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR A FEW
DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO THE FOX VALLEY REGION. THE RESULTING RUNOFF COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL RIVERS STILL REMAIN
ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RIVER FLOODING
THREAT IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
958 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
SURFACE DATA THIS EVENING SHOWING SOME VERY DRY AIR HAS SETTLED
OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS OVER VILAS
AND FLORENCE COUNTIES WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 30S OVER RHI.
TEMPS RATHER MILD LATE THIS EVENING BUT ADDED A BRIEF MIX FAR
NORTH DUE TO EVAP COOLING AFFECTS AS THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AND
STUBBORN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IS RISING OVER THE 850MB FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AN
ARCING BAND OF RAIN FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLOWING LIFTING NORTH TODAY WITH
ASSISTANCE FROM A SHORTWAVE LOBE OVER IOWA...WHICH IS ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT CYCLONE. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
AND COULD REACH THE U.P BORDER BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS BEEN DRY SO FAR TODAY WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER 50S...BUT THIS SHOULD END SOON. PRECIP TRENDS AND
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW JAUNT TO THE EAST. EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW...850MB
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WHILE THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
PWAT MAXIMUM BAND TO SUPPORT THE ARCING BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAT WILL LIKELY AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING.
AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS...PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW FLAKES
TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. PERHAPS COULD SEE A LITTLE COATING ON
GRASSY SURFACES BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
HARD TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AND ACTUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FOX VALLEY AS THE
TRAJECTORIES TURN NORTHEAST AND FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. WILL HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES SYNOPTICALLY. WILL HAVE A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH A 850MB TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BRING BREAKS IN THE RAIN AND DIMINISHING WINDS
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE PM HOURS...BUT
EXPECT THE STEADY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN WILL STILL HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
APPEARS POSSIBLE. HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFT
EAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PCPN SHOULD ALREADY HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE CWA (MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...BUT A HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO THE VARIOUS S/W TROFS
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MULTI-
MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN BROADBRUSH LIKELY POPS FROM TUES NGT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE ALMOST ALL RAIN...BUT KEPT A MIX
IN OVER VILAS CO LATE WED NGT/EARLY THU.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OCNL
S/W TROFS AND WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL POPS ARE
WARRANTED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING SOME OF THE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM SLOWLY CHURNING ACROSS MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF
SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ON
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CIGS
MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS. COMPACT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ENSURE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO THE FOX VALLEY REGION. THE RESULTING RUNOFF COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL RIVERS STILL REMAIN
ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RIVER FLOODING
THREAT IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AND
STUBBORN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND A WARM
FRONT POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IS RISING OVER THE 850MB FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AN
ARCING BAND OF RAIN FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLOWING LIFTING NORTH TODAY WITH
ASSISTANCE FROM A SHORTWAVE LOBE OVER IOWA...WHICH IS ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT CYCLONE. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
AND COULD REACH THE U.P BORDER BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS BEEN DRY SO FAR TODAY WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER 50S...BUT THIS SHOULD END SOON. PRECIP TRENDS AND
AMOUNTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW JAUNT TO THE EAST. EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW...850MB
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WHILE THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
PWAT MAXIMUM BAND TO SUPPORT THE ARCING BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAT WILL LIKELY AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING.
AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS...PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW FLAKES
TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. PERHAPS COULD SEE A LITTLE COATING ON
GRASSY SURFACES BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
HARD TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AND ACTUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FOX VALLEY AS THE
TRAJECTORIES TURN NORTHEAST AND FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. WILL HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES SYNOPTICALLY. WILL HAVE A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH A 850MB TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THIS MAY BRING BREAKS IN THE RAIN AND DIMINISHING WINDS
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE PM HOURS...BUT
EXPECT THE STEADY RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME RAIN WILL STILL HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
APPEARS POSSIBLE. HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50S
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFT
EAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PCPN SHOULD ALREADY HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE CWA (MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...BUT A HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO THE VARIOUS S/W TROFS
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MULTI-
MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN BROADBRUSH LIKELY POPS FROM TUES NGT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE ALMOST ALL RAIN...BUT KEPT A MIX
IN OVER VILAS CO LATE WED NGT/EARLY THU.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OCNL
S/W TROFS AND WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL POPS ARE
WARRANTED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT PCPN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING SOME OF THE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM SLOWLY CHURNING ACROSS MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF
SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ON
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CIGS
MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS. COMPACT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ENSURE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO THE FOX VALLEY REGION. THE RESULTING RUNOFF COULD
CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL RIVERS STILL REMAIN
ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RIVER FLOODING
THREAT IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
557 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT...MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND FGEN IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO REDEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS RAIN
BAND OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT COVERAGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THEN A POTENT LINE OF
STORMS IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHILE HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
ANTICIPATING THAT ARCING BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FGEN WILL HAVE WEAKENED AT THE START OF THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST. THEN ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK OR
REDUCED COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LINE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS PIVOTS AS IT MOVES NE INTO WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY LATE TONIGHT (THOUGH WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS INTENSE AS IT
STANDS CURRENTLY) DUE TO INCREASING 900-800MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FGEN. PRIOR TO THIS AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING...CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. BUT IN GENERAL...WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
STEADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY...THE ARCING BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
CONCERN THAT THE RAINS COULD BRING DOWN SOME BEEFY GUSTS FROM ALOFT
AS THE NAM IS DEPICTING WINDS UPWARDS OF 60 KTS ABOUT 2KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL MENTION HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
HWO. DESPITE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF A THUNDER CHANCE. BUT WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH
AND THE SLOWLY FORWARD PROGRESSION...DECENT RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.
NORTHERN AND NE WISCONSIN WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER DUE TO THE DRY NE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT THAT AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN TOO. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
PCPN TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND STRONG E-NE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY NIGHT...REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE IN THE FCST THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE BEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR AS A STRONG S/W TROF
ROTATES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND AS
ANOTHER WAVE OR WEAK UPPER LOW AFFECTS NE/N WI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE WI
LATE MON NGT/EARLY TUE...AND AGAIN LATE WED NGT/EARLY THU AND
LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN A LARGE HUDSON BAY
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MON
NGT. WITH ENE WINDS OF 35-50 KTS ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SFC...STRONG GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS...MAINLY CENTRAL WI AND THE FOX VALLEY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BANDS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
OF THE STATE AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE.
MEANWHILE DRY AIR ON EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
AREA TO KEEP CIGS MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. AS
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMPACT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ENSURE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR A FEW DAYS ALONG WITH LLWS
CONDITIONS DUE TO 2000 FOOT WINDS WINDS UP TO 50 KTS THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...AND 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES OVER THE SRN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FCST AREA...ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NGT PERIOD. THE RESULTING
RUNOFF COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL RIVERS
STILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ADDED POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH MAY MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY PER HRRR AND 4KM
WRF/NMM MODELS. ELEVATED CAPES ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SO COULD
HEAR CLAPS OF THUNDER AS WELL. THUS...KEPT THE POPS GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO GO
HIGHER WITH POPS IF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS ORGANIZED.
HRRR AND 4KM WRF/NMM MODELS BRINGING MAIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN
INTO THE AREA AT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMES...THE HRRR NOT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE WRF/NMM AFTER 03Z MONDAY. USED THE 4KM WRF/NMM FOR
TIMING...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION. HIGH POPS THEN LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDER KEPT WITH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. COULD SEE LIGHTER RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
SHIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA FOR A TIME. QPF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 1.75 AND AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO 30 TO 33 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS GET NEAR
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY IN THE WEST...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MOST GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE RAIN AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL BE OVER FAR ERN NE EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND
SLOWLY MOVE EWD. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
OCCLUSION WILL PIVOT NWD THROUGH WI MON NT...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE IL/WI BORDER BY 12Z TUE. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN
BECOME A BROAD N-S TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SRN WI THROUGH IL.
THIS WILL BRING THE OCCLUDED FRONT NWD INTO CENTRAL WI...THUS
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE BUT SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS WITH THE WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN AID
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER MI TUE NT BUT THAT WILL ALSO
QUICKLY OCCLUDE WITH THE LOW OVER WI OR MI FOR WED. THE LARGE
UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM TNT THROUGH
MON NT WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARD. REISSUED THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH MANY RIVERS EXPECTED TO BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS WITH A FEW REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE LARGE OCCLUDED LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL ABOUT SAT TO MOVE AWAY WITH
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC WAVE WITH THE POLAR JET
STREAM WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS WI FOR SUN. THUS THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WELL. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MADISON. COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES IF
ANY OF THESE GO OVER THE AIRPORT. FOR NOW...MAY PUT VICINITY SHOWERS
IN TAF AT MADISON.
MAIN ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...BY 03Z MONDAY AT MADISON AND 06Z MONDAY AT THE
EASTERN SITES. THE RAIN WILL THEN LINGER LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS EASTERLY 1500 FOOT WINDS APPROACHING 50 TO
55 KNOTS. STILL FEEL THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN UNTIL LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP
BACK UPWARDS BY EARLY EVENING...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A FEW TO 35 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH SOME 8 TO 12 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE. WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...FALLING BELOW 4 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...A POTENT
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO MANITOBA. IN-
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND RIDGE...PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOWED A 30-
50 KT JET CORE AT 850MB FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. GOES
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTED VALUES OF 1-1.5 INCHES
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF IOWA SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA...WITH LOWER
VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF KANSAS INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE A DRY SLOT EXISTS. ALONG AND JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF
THIS GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL IOWA AND MISSOURI. SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE INTENSE TOO...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE 750-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS. FARTHER NORTHEAST... SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF I-90. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LASTLY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH THAT AFOREMENTIONED STRONG 850MB JET CORE HAS LED TO
BRISK EAST WINDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 15-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25-45 MPH...STRONGEST WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES THAT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE
TOO THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO
NEBRASKA AND IOWA BY 18Z MONDAY. THE QUESTION IS AMOUNT WHICH HAS
BIG IMPACTS ON POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING. THE AMOUNT HAS STRONG
TIES TO EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA IN WHICH THERE ARE THREE SCENARIOS...
1. THE CONVECTION TURNS INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL
LINE...ESSENTIALLY LIMITING HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SQUALL LINE FALLS APART OVER ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AS IT
RUNS INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
2. THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES EAST...RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TRAINING FACTOR COMES INTO PLAY...ALLOWING FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING.
3. THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES EAST...AND ESSENTIALLY MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS APART BY 04Z.
ALL THREE IDEAS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT IT IS SERIOUSLY WORTH
NOTING THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OUTRUNNING MOST MODELS. THE ONLY
MODEL THAT HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL IS THE 00Z SPC WRF-NMM...
WHICH IS SCENARIO NUMBER 3 ABOVE. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIED TO LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THAT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF. STILL...THE
FORECAST MAY BE OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THAT 04-09Z TIME FRAME. WOULD THINK THAT PERISTENT 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WOULD AT LEAST CONTINUE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND NOT
COMPLETELY END...THUS THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. ALL THREE
SCENARIOS ABOVE REGENERATE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA
FROM THE APPROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR IMPACT ON RIVERS.
AFTER THE RAIN AND CONVECTION TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH IOWA. THE
MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EITHER
ALONG OR SOUTH OF US-20. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT HINGES
QUITE A BIT ON MORNING PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO
FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD CREEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY BE SEVERE. NOTE THAT A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAYETTE EAST TO GRANT COUNTIES.
LASTLY...REGARDING THE WIND ADVISORY...AS EXPECTED THE CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN MARGINAL. WILL KEEP IT GOING THROUGH 9 PM AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN TO 30 MPH. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO MIDNIGHT SEEING
SOME LAV GUIDANCE HOLDING RST...TOB AND OLZ BETWEEN 25-30 KT TO
06Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA ON MONDAY IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF FOCUS
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS UPPER LOW
WILL PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS COOL AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN CANADA...CAUSING TROUGHING TO PERSIST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE
27.06Z/12Z GFS AND 27.00Z/12Z ECMWF.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
BAND OF SHOWERS TO FORM JUST NORTH OF THAT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
IOWA MONDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FORCING AND 800-900MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND...AFFECTING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 MONDAY
EVENING...SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 BY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY TAILING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. THEN WE GET INTO A COLD CONVEYOR BELT SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER
SHOWERS SHOULD POP UP ELSEWHERE UNDER THE UPPER LOW DUE TO MID LEVEL
COLD AIR. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER WITH THEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RIGHT NOW.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY MUCH
SITS IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT THAT COULD INCREASE COVERAGE.
GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND...HAVE USED COVERAGE
VERBIAGE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND...
COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND 0C PLUS OR MINUS 2
C...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGHING. SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
MIGHT BE MORE POTENT...SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A MODEL CONSENSUS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THE
AIR IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT ITS NOT FAR OFF. 850MB
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION
BELOW NORMAL...OR BETWEEN -4C AND 0C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AT 27.17Z...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND IOSLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE MESO
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE OUT THE
TAF SITES AROUND 27.1830Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
4 TO 8K FOOT LAYER. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 28.00Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME IFR/MVFR. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS
BAND IS HANDLED BY THE MESO MODELS. DUE TO THIS...PLAYED IT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.
WITH KLSE ONLY INTERMITTENTLY GUSTING...KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN FOR TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA ARE MOVING
FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. IN FACT...THE ONE MODEL THAT IS HANDLING
THE PRECIPITATION WELL SUGGESTS WE COULD HAVE A BREAK OF 6 HOURS
OF NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AFTER THEY PASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY END UP INGESTING MORE OF THE
MOISTURE...LIMITING HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR TONIGHT. BETTER CONFIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
IN SUMMARY...BASED ON RFC FORECAST DATA...CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT A FLOOD WATCH ON THE TURKEY RIVER. SHOULD AROUND 1
INCH MATERIALIZE OVER THE BASIN THIS EVENING...THE WATCH WILL NEED
TO BE UPGRADED. ELSEWHERE...HAVE CONTINUED THE ESF. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS THAT HEAVIER QPF COULD FALL OVER WISCONSIN. SHOULD THIS
MATERIALIZE...MORE FLOOD WATCHES FOR AREA RIVERS MAY BE REQUIRED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT...MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND FGEN IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO REDEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS RAIN
BAND OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT COVERAGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THEN A POTENT LINE OF
STORMS IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHILE HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
ANTICIPATING THAT ARCING BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FGEN WILL HAVE WEAKENED AT THE START OF THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST. THEN ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK OR
REDUCED COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LINE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS PIVOTS AS IT MOVES NE INTO WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY LATE TONIGHT (THOUGH WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS INTENSE AS IT
STANDS CURRENTLY) DUE TO INCREASING 900-800MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FGEN. PRIOR TO THIS AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING...CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. BUT IN GENERAL...WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
STEADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY...THE ARCING BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
CONCERN THAT THE RAINS COULD BRING DOWN SOME BEEFY GUSTS FROM ALOFT
AS THE NAM IS DEPICTING WINDS UPWARDS OF 60 KTS ABOUT 2KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL MENTION HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
HWO. DESPITE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF A THUNDER CHANCE. BUT WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH
AND THE SLOWLY FORWARD PROGRESSION...DECENT RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.
NORTHERN AND NE WISCONSIN WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER DUE TO THE DRY NE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT THAT AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN TOO. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
PCPN TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND STRONG E-NE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY NIGHT...REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE IN THE FCST THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE BEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR AS A STRONG S/W TROF
ROTATES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND AS
ANOTHER WAVE OR WEAK UPPER LOW AFFECTS NE/N WI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE WI
LATE MON NGT/EARLY TUE...AND AGAIN LATE WED NGT/EARLY THU AND
LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN A LARGE HUDSON BAY
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MON
NGT. WITH ENE WINDS OF 35-50 KTS ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SFC...STRONG GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS...MAINLY CENTRAL WI AND THE FOX VALLEY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THANKS TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND PUSHES
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
THE RAIN...EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND WIND SHEAR UP TO 55 KTS
WILL REMAIN PRESENT ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE GUSTY
EAST WINDS AND WIND SHEAR THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...AND 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES OVER THE SRN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FCST AREA...ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NGT PERIOD. THE RESULTING
RUNOFF COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL RIVERS
STILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NEW MEXICO WITH BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM KABR TO KDVN AND HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TRIED TO MAKE
SOME TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND THEN
SOME LARGER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS /UP IN THE
WEST BY .3 TO .5 INCHES/...BUT MUCH OF TONIGHTS FORECAST LEFT AS
WAS.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP LOW WITH TROPOPAUSE FOLD
DOWN TO 700 MB OVER NEW MEXICO PER RAP TROP ANALYSIS. SURFACE
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SD/MN /1 MB PER HOUR/
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING WITH
25 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALREADY TONIGHT IN EASTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN NERN CO TO WRN NE AT 986 MB. SURFACE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOISTEN WITH 60F DEWPOINT LINE NOW INTO
NEB. NORTH OF THE W-E FRONT NEAR OMAHA-KSTL LINE...DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG DRIER EASTERLY FLOW /30S/...PRODUCING
SOME FIGHT TO RAIN SHOWERS TO HIT THE SURFACE /NOT THE TSRA
THOUGH AS HOURLY 0.25 INCH REPORTS ARE COMMON IN IA/.
GOES BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ HOURLY LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN
PLUME OF MOISTURE FOR INFLOW INTO TONIGHTS RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH
THRU OK/AR AT THIS TIME...WITH 1.5 INCH VALUES. ALREADY PRESENT
FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWRD INTO IA...A PW AXIS EXISTS OF ABOUT 0.60
INCHES WHICH IS 125-150 PERCENT NORMAL. THIS IS MAINLY MOISTURE
ABOVE 700MB /PER 00Z RAOB AT KABR/ AND ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH
PRETTY STEEP 500-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...WHICH IS WHERE THE
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED TONIGHT WITH MOST LIGHTNING. LAPSE
RATE GRADIENT RUNS KABR-KMCW WITH MAX OVER NEB AT 06Z. THE LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE LAPSE RATE STEEPENING AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH PUSHES THE GRADIENT
AND DESTABILIZATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE VERY WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO WE
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS MOVE
NORTH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE 750-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LLJ CONVERGENCE. KDMX IS 60 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH PER RADAR AND KARX 88D SHOWED 40 KTS FROM THE SE...SO NICE
CONVERGENCE TO MOIST PLUME ALOFT.
LATEST RAP AND LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THIS SHOWER AND
SCT TSRA REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. TSRA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHRA. THE
HRRR AND RAP...AS WELL AS NAM AND GFS...HAVE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE
OR LULL IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS TRANSPORT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE BUILT THIS INTO THE RAIN
CHANCES...WITH AN INCREASE LATE TODAY AND EVENING AS MAIN MOIST
PLUME AND FORCING RETURNS WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY BOTTOMED THE RAIN CHANCES OUT TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS A START.
WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
ROBUST WITH WINDS TODAY. FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS GUSTING TO 35
MPH WEST OF MISS RIVER AND WITH AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TODAY...WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. KARX 88D HAS 45-50
KTS AT 500M ABOVE THE RADAR AT 08Z. IT COULD BE RATHER GUSTY EAST
OF THE RIVER TOO IN WI WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND SOME SHALLOW MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT RAIN. GUSTS IN THE
30S ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT WI AREAS MONDAY MORNING AND A BREAK
SEEMS TO OCCUR THEN BEFORE THE WARM FRONT AGAIN BECOMES ACTIVE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REALLY BANK ON INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA /DUH/ AND THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT LOCATION WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER OR
SOUTH...AND RUNNING W-E. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP LIFT AND CLOUDS/RAIN BY MID-DAY MONDAY WHICH
DOESNT NOT LEAVE MUCH TIME TO DESTABILIZE.
THE LATEST SPC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK NORTH
TO JUST SOUTH OF KDBQ. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED STORMS. WIND SHEAR IS FAIR SO DYNAMIC LIFT WILL HAVE TO
ASSIST TO INVIGORATE THE STORMS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT SEEMS LOW
BUT POSSIBLE...WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. IF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA...SOME LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE...WHICH
WOULD MAKE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT
SEEMS CLOSE BUT NOT INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
LIMITED THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE RAIN AGAIN AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND ANOTHER
THEN FOLLOW BEHIND FOR TUESDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
ENHANCING THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE...SO ANOTHER INCH IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...SREF RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 2-2.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL ACROSS THE AREA
/MEAN/ WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS SURPRISINGLY. THIS IS
OUR CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR IMPACTS
ON RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND SHOWERY WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AT 27.17Z...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND IOSLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE MESO
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE OUT THE
TAF SITES AROUND 27.1830Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
4 TO 8K FOOT LAYER. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 28.00Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME IFR/MVFR. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS
BAND IS HANDLED BY THE MESO MODELS. DUE TO THIS...PLAYED IT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.
WITH KLSE ONLY INTERMITTENTLY GUSTING...KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS IS STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE. REVIEWING THE FORECASTS FOR THE CURRENT
72-HOUR RAINFALL AND ITS AFFECT ON RIVERS...THE RIVERS RESPOND BY
RISING TO/NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY SITES.
THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WILL REVIEW THE INFORMATION AND ARE
CONSIDERING...IN COOPERATION WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...PLACING THE 72 HOUR RAIN INTO THE ACTUAL FORECASTS.
RECALL THE POSTED FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED ONLY USE 24 HOUR
FORECAST RAINFALL. IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
EVENT...IT WOULD BE BETTER TO HAVE THAT 72 HOUR TOTAL INCLUDED.
HOWEVER...USERS OF RIVER DATA CAN GO TO THE LINK BELOW TO SEE 72
HOUR RAINFALL RIVER HYDROGRAPHS AT ANY TIME /ALL LOWER CASE AND
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE/...
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/CRH/RFC/MAPGRAPHICALDISPLAY.PHP
WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AS THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO VISIT THIS TOPIC WITH THE 72 HOUR RAINFALL RIVER
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...AREAS OF SHOWERS/RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE WERE
BEING DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB LOW LEVEL
JET. HRRR MODEL TAKING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
A FEW SHOWERS STILL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MAIN ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING.
SO...ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD AFTER 18Z TO 19Z THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW BREAKS
POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE
UPPER 40S INLAND NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SHOWERS MAY AFFECT MADISON FOR THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OR DIMINISHING. MAY SEE A
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON OCCUR...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER.
MAIN ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...BY 02Z MONDAY AT MADISON AND 05Z MONDAY AT
THE EASTERN SITES. THE RAIN WILL THEN LINGER LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS EASTERLY 1500 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 50 KNOTS. FEEL SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A FEW TO 35 KNOTS.
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 10
FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOME 8 TO 12 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FALLING BELOW 4 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HRRR HANDLING LIGHT RAIN WITH FIRST PUSH OF MAINLY 700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AIDED BY ULD IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250 MB JET MAX
WELL. GETTING ISOLATED 0.01 AMOUNTS ON SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS...
WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS IN 10SM LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM 9K TO 10K
FT BASES WITH MOST OF THE REPORTS FROM NRN HALF OF THE CWA. BAND
WILL SHIFT OUT OF FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z WITH BETTER 700-
850 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE.
NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS MORE CLOSELY TIED WITH 850 MB WAA AND NEXT
ROUND OF 700-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ENTER THE SW CORNER OF THE
CWA BY 12Z AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH CWA...EXITING TO THE
NORTH. SOME CONVECTION IN IOWA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS
WHICH WILL BRUSH PAST TO THE WEST. WILL LIMIT ISOLATED THUNDER TO
JUST THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR A
TIME FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TO REFLECT A POTENTIAL
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. COOL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH REACHING THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKE...AND THAT IS IF THERE IS THE EXPECTED BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION.
GULF OPENS UP TO THE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1 INCH WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT. HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BETTER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/SYSTEM DYNAMICS. BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. QPF TOTALS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 1/3 OF
AN INCH TO 1/2 INCH IN THE EAST...TO BETWEEN 3/4 INCH AND 1.3 INCHES
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE WPC HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE/5 TO 10 PCT/OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. RIVERS WILL BE QUICK TO RESPOND TO THIS RAIN AS
THEY ARE ALREADY HIGH FROM SNOW MELT AND PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SURROUNDING LOW-LANDS ALREADY SATURATED AND UNABLE
TO HOLD EXCESS WATER FROM ENTERING THE MAINSTEM CHANNELS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BROADEN AS IT MOVES
FROM NEBRASKA TO THE MN/WI/IA BORDER. THE 925MB WARM FRONT WILL BE
STATIONED ACROSS NORTHERN IL MONDAY MORNING...THEN CREEP NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL WI THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL WI THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
SOUTHWEST WI.
THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
TUESDAY. WAVES OF VORTICITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAD TO STRONG
UPWARD MOTION OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOT TRY
TO TIME THESE WAVES IN THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS QUITE YET BUT THE
TREND IS SHOWN IN THE QPF GRIDS. MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO RAIN
TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN WI MON EVENING AND EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THESE COULD
BECOME SURFACE BASED SINCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
FAR SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SKY COVER AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS IS BETWEEN THE
75TH PERCENTILE AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND WPC YIELDS 1.5-2.00 INCHES FROM
MON THROUGH TUE. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
RISE IN RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL MEANDER NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE WEEK WHICH MEANS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S THERE AND LOWER 50S INLAND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HANGING OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
CLOUDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME IT RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
FIRST BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SECOND BAND MOVING INTO SW WI. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE SECOND BAND. UPSTREAM
OBS CONFIRM PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EVEN WITH THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
PREVENT CIGS FROM DROPPING BELOW VFR LEVELS AND ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS BELOW 6SM. WILL HANDLE THESE LOWER
VSBY SHOWERS AS THEY FORM AND APPROACH TAF SITES. ANY THUNDER
LOOKS TO REMAIN SW OF TAF SITES TODAY. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL COME TONIGHT WITH STEADY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2.5 INCHES AND 3 INCHES...WITH HALF OR
MORE OF THAT TOTAL FALLING FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES AS EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BY TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE INVERSION OVER THE STABLE
WATER FOR A FEW GUSTS TO HIT GALE FORCE LEVELS...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO RAISE THE HEADLINE TO A GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
THE PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 6 TO 10 FEET BY
LATE TONIGHT AND HOLD THEM THERE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
LOWER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WAVES
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH THE EASING WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
649 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NEW MEXICO WITH BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM KABR TO KDVN AND HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TRIED TO MAKE
SOME TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND THEN
SOME LARGER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS /UP IN THE
WEST BY .3 TO .5 INCHES/...BUT MUCH OF TONIGHTS FORECAST LEFT AS
WAS.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP LOW WITH TROPOPAUSE FOLD
DOWN TO 700 MB OVER NEW MEXICO PER RAP TROP ANALYSIS. SURFACE
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SD/MN /1 MB PER HOUR/
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING WITH
25 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALREADY TONIGHT IN EASTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN NERN CO TO WRN NE AT 986 MB. SURFACE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOISTEN WITH 60F DEWPOINT LINE NOW INTO
NEB. NORTH OF THE W-E FRONT NEAR OMAHA-KSTL LINE...DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG DRIER EASTERLY FLOW /30S/...PRODUCING
SOME FIGHT TO RAIN SHOWERS TO HIT THE SURFACE /NOT THE TSRA
THOUGH AS HOURLY 0.25 INCH REPORTS ARE COMMON IN IA/.
GOES BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ HOURLY LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN
PLUME OF MOISTURE FOR INFLOW INTO TONIGHTS RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH
THRU OK/AR AT THIS TIME...WITH 1.5 INCH VALUES. ALREADY PRESENT
FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWRD INTO IA...A PW AXIS EXISTS OF ABOUT 0.60
INCHES WHICH IS 125-150 PERCENT NORMAL. THIS IS MAINLY MOISTURE
ABOVE 700MB /PER 00Z RAOB AT KABR/ AND ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH
PRETTY STEEP 500-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...WHICH IS WHERE THE
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED TONIGHT WITH MOST LIGHTNING. LAPSE
RATE GRADIENT RUNS KABR-KMCW WITH MAX OVER NEB AT 06Z. THE LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE LAPSE RATE STEEPENING AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH PUSHES THE GRADIENT
AND DESTABILIZATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE VERY WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO WE
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS MOVE
NORTH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE 750-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LLJ CONVERGENCE. KDMX IS 60 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH PER RADAR AND KARX 88D SHOWED 40 KTS FROM THE SE...SO NICE
CONVERGENCE TO MOIST PLUME ALOFT.
LATEST RAP AND LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THIS SHOWER AND
SCT TSRA REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. TSRA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHRA. THE
HRRR AND RAP...AS WELL AS NAM AND GFS...HAVE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE
OR LULL IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS TRANSPORT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE BUILT THIS INTO THE RAIN
CHANCES...WITH AN INCREASE LATE TODAY AND EVENING AS MAIN MOIST
PLUME AND FORCING RETURNS WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY BOTTOMED THE RAIN CHANCES OUT TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS A START.
WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
ROBUST WITH WINDS TODAY. FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS GUSTING TO 35
MPH WEST OF MISS RIVER AND WITH AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TODAY...WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. KARX 88D HAS 45-50
KTS AT 500M ABOVE THE RADAR AT 08Z. IT COULD BE RATHER GUSTY EAST
OF THE RIVER TOO IN WI WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND SOME SHALLOW MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT RAIN. GUSTS IN THE
30S ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT WI AREAS MONDAY MORNING AND A BREAK
SEEMS TO OCCUR THEN BEFORE THE WARM FRONT AGAIN BECOMES ACTIVE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REALLY BANK ON INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA /DUH/ AND THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT LOCATION WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER OR
SOUTH...AND RUNNING W-E. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP LIFT AND CLOUDS/RAIN BY MID-DAY MONDAY WHICH
DOESNT NOT LEAVE MUCH TIME TO DESTABILIZE.
THE LATEST SPC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK NORTH
TO JUST SOUTH OF KDBQ. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED STORMS. WIND SHEAR IS FAIR SO DYNAMIC LIFT WILL HAVE TO
ASSIST TO INVIGORATE THE STORMS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT SEEMS LOW
BUT POSSIBLE...WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. IF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA...SOME LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE...WHICH
WOULD MAKE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT
SEEMS CLOSE BUT NOT INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
LIMITED THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE RAIN AGAIN AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND ANOTHER
THEN FOLLOW BEHIND FOR TUESDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
ENHANCING THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE...SO ANOTHER INCH IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...SREF RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 2-2.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL ACROSS THE AREA
/MEAN/ WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS SURPRISINGLY. THIS IS
OUR CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR IMPACTS
ON RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND SHOWERY WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONG EAST WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHEAR BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 1500
FT...CREATING LLWS AT KLSE. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 39 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KRST. WIDESRPEAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE EDGES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS IS STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE. REVIEWING THE FORECASTS FOR THE CURRENT
72-HOUR RAINFALL AND ITS AFFECT ON RIVERS...THE RIVERS RESPOND BY
RISING TO/NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY SITES.
THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WILL REVIEW THE INFORMATION AND ARE
CONSIDERING...IN COOPERATION WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...PLACING THE 72 HOUR RAIN INTO THE ACTUAL FORECASTS.
RECALL THE POSTED FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED ONLY USE 24 HOUR
FORECAST RAINFALL. IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
EVENT...IT WOULD BE BETTER TO HAVE THAT 72 HOUR TOTAL INCLUDED.
HOWEVER...USERS OF RIVER DATA CAN GO TO THE LINK BELOW TO SEE 72
HOUR RAINFALL RIVER HYDROGRAPHS AT ANY TIME /ALL LOWER CASE AND
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE/...
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/CRH/RFC/MAPGRAPHICALDISPLAY.PHP
WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AS THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO VISIT THIS TOPIC WITH THE 72 HOUR RAINFALL RIVER
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NEW MEXICO WITH BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM KABR TO KDVN AND HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TRIED TO MAKE
SOME TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND THEN
SOME LARGER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS /UP IN THE
WEST BY .3 TO .5 INCHES/...BUT MUCH OF TONIGHTS FORECAST LEFT AS
WAS.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP LOW WITH TROPOPAUSE FOLD
DOWN TO 700 MB OVER NEW MEXICO PER RAP TROP ANALYSIS. SURFACE
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SD/MN /1 MB PER HOUR/
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING WITH
25 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALREADY TONIGHT IN EASTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN NERN CO TO WRN NE AT 986 MB. SURFACE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOISTEN WITH 60F DEWPOINT LINE NOW INTO
NEB. NORTH OF THE W-E FRONT NEAR OMAHA-KSTL LINE...DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG DRIER EASTERLY FLOW /30S/...PRODUCING
SOME FIGHT TO RAIN SHOWERS TO HIT THE SURFACE /NOT THE TSRA
THOUGH AS HOURLY 0.25 INCH REPORTS ARE COMMON IN IA/.
GOES BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ HOURLY LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN
PLUME OF MOISTURE FOR INFLOW INTO TONIGHTS RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH
THRU OK/AR AT THIS TIME...WITH 1.5 INCH VALUES. ALREADY PRESENT
FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWRD INTO IA...A PW AXIS EXISTS OF ABOUT 0.60
INCHES WHICH IS 125-150 PERCENT NORMAL. THIS IS MAINLY MOISTURE
ABOVE 700MB /PER 00Z RAOB AT KABR/ AND ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH
PRETTY STEEP 500-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...WHICH IS WHERE THE
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED TONIGHT WITH MOST LIGHTNING. LAPSE
RATE GRADIENT RUNS KABR-KMCW WITH MAX OVER NEB AT 06Z. THE LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE LAPSE RATE STEEPENING AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH PUSHES THE GRADIENT
AND DESTABILIZATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE VERY WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO WE
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS MOVE
NORTH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE 750-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LLJ CONVERGENCE. KDMX IS 60 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH PER RADAR AND KARX 88D SHOWED 40 KTS FROM THE SE...SO NICE
CONVERGENCE TO MOIST PLUME ALOFT.
LATEST RAP AND LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THIS SHOWER AND
SCT TSRA REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. TSRA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHRA. THE
HRRR AND RAP...AS WELL AS NAM AND GFS...HAVE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE
OR LULL IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS TRANSPORT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE BUILT THIS INTO THE RAIN
CHANCES...WITH AN INCREASE LATE TODAY AND EVENING AS MAIN MOIST
PLUME AND FORCING RETURNS WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY BOTTOMED THE RAIN CHANCES OUT TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS A START.
WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
ROBUST WITH WINDS TODAY. FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS GUSTING TO 35
MPH WEST OF MISS RIVER AND WITH AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TODAY...WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. KARX 88D HAS 45-50
KTS AT 500M ABOVE THE RADAR AT 08Z. IT COULD BE RATHER GUSTY EAST
OF THE RIVER TOO IN WI WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND SOME SHALLOW MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT RAIN. GUSTS IN THE
30S ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT WI AREAS MONDAY MORNING AND A BREAK
SEEMS TO OCCUR THEN BEFORE THE WARM FRONT AGAIN BECOMES ACTIVE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REALLY BANK ON INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA /DUH/ AND THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT LOCATION WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER OR
SOUTH...AND RUNNING W-E. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP LIFT AND CLOUDS/RAIN BY MID-DAY MONDAY WHICH
DOESNT NOT LEAVE MUCH TIME TO DESTABILIZE.
THE LATEST SPC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK NORTH
TO JUST SOUTH OF KDBQ. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED STORMS. WIND SHEAR IS FAIR SO DYNAMIC LIFT WILL HAVE TO
ASSIST TO INVIGORATE THE STORMS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT SEEMS LOW
BUT POSSIBLE...WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. IF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA...SOME LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE...WHICH
WOULD MAKE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT
SEEMS CLOSE BUT NOT INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
LIMITED THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE RAIN AGAIN AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND ANOTHER
THEN FOLLOW BEHIND FOR TUESDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
ENHANCING THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE...SO ANOTHER INCH IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...SREF RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 2-2.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL ACROSS THE AREA
/MEAN/ WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS SURPRISINGLY. THIS IS
OUR CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR IMPACTS
ON RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND SHOWERY WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
DRY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE LOWERING OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWED THE
LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS TO MVFR AT KRST FROM 27.11Z TO 27.21Z. THIS
MAY HAVE TO SLOWED A BIT MORE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE KLSE
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST 28.04Z.
SUB CLOUD EVAPORATION SHOULD HELP BRING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...INCREASED THE WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. ON SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL
PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THE WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS IS STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE. REVIEWING THE FORECASTS FOR THE CURRENT
72-HOUR RAINFALL AND ITS AFFECT ON RIVERS...THE RIVERS RESPOND BY
RISING TO/NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY SITES.
THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WILL REVIEW THE INFORMATION AND ARE
CONSIDERING...IN COOPERATION WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...PLACING THE 72 HOUR RAIN INTO THE ACTUAL FORECASTS.
RECALL THE POSTED FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED ONLY USE 24 HOUR
FORECAST RAINFALL. IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
EVENT...IT WOULD BE BETTER TO HAVE THAT 72 HOUR TOTAL INCLUDED.
HOWEVER...USERS OF RIVER DATA CAN GO TO THE LINK BELOW TO SEE 72
HOUR RAINFALL RIVER HYDROGRAPHS AT ANY TIME /ALL LOWER CASE AND
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE/...
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/CRH/RFC/MAPGRAPHICALDISPLAY.PHP
WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AS THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO VISIT THIS TOPIC WITH THE 72 HOUR RAINFALL RIVER
FORECASTS TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
LATEST KARX RADAR...SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 700 TO 500 MB
FRONOTOGENESIS. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH 27.09Z AND THEN WEAKENS
IT. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH THE PRECIPITATION THAT SHOWS UP IN THE
MESO MODELS...SO TRENDED THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
27.09Z TO BETTER MATCH THEM.
AFTER 27.09Z...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANPSORT IS
MOVING INTO THIS AREA AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
RAIN AND WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSONS BAY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WI WHILE STRENGTHENING CYCLOGENESIS WAS
TAKING PLACE ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS IN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING 850-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS VICINITY OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF MN INTO WESTERN
WI WILL LIKELY PRODUCE INCREASING BAND OF ACCAS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL
IN EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE
INCREASING INTO THE 250-500J/KG RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT PER THE NAM.
PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH OF I-
94...TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NERVOUSLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY...MAY ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN
THERE AND POINTS NORTH.
PLAN ON SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED-
SCATTERED THUNDER FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. IT WILL
BE WINDY AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY HIGH AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP INTO THE
20-30 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS WEST OF THE RIVER IN THE
WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA 40-45 MPH. FOR THIS
REASON...OPTED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE MORE WIND-PRONE
AREAS FROM 9AM-9PM SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE...WILL BE A RAW DAY IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH THE
WIND AND SHOWERS.
SURFACE LOW LINKS UP WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TAPPING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOCUSING RIGHT INTO THE AREA FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THIS
PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE. THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT...THE 26.12Z
ECMWF SHOWING SOME 750-1000J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE NOSING TOWARD
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
FOR SUNDAY NIGH THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW AMBLES ITS WAY INTO IA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
MAIN FOCUS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A WEAKENING TREND AND SHIFTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94. WILL BE WATCHING AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS THIS AREA GETS VERY CLOSE TO
SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. NAM SHOWING
MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 600-1100J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A PRETTY DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 50S/A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTION
OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING TROWAL SIGNATURE MOISTURE WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS OUT OF IA AND
ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTION
OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
FOR WEDENESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL/SHOWERY PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED LOW
CAMPS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION.
RAINFALL DOES LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THOUGH...BUT SHOWERY
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL NONETHELESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
DRY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE LOWERING OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWED THE
LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS TO MVFR AT KRST FROM 27.11Z TO 27.21Z. THIS
MAY HAVE TO SLOWED A BIT MORE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE KLSE
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST 28.04Z.
SUB CLOUD EVAPORATION SHOULD HELP BRING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...INCREASED THE WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. ON SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL
PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THE WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WITH TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NEARING 2 INCHES...EXPECT RISES
ON AREA RIVERWAYS. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THIS RAINFALL
WILL PUSH A FEW AREA RIVERS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
KICKAPOO...TURKEY...UPPER IOWA RIVERWAYS. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH BUT REMAINING BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.
SHOULD HEAVIER RAIN MATERIALIZE WITH SAY ANOTHER 1 INCH OR MORE
OCCURRING THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING COULD
RESULT.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND PASS ALONG TO THE NIGHT
SHIFT TO ASSESS WITH HOPEFULLY BETTER MODEL RESOLUTION. FEELING
RIGHT NOW IS THIS IS NOT A QUICK RESPONSE/FLASHY SITUATION GIVEN
LOWER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE HYDROLOGIC ESF STATEMENTS FOR
NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
740 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014
UPDATED POP...TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THIS LOW AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW. EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S
AGAIN...AS NORTHERLY WINDS GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND RIDGES. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH GUSTS OVER 58 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...DECIDED THE
DURATION OF ANY LULL IN THE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT IN
DURATION TO EXPIRE THE CURRENT HEADLINE. MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE
TO EXTEND THIS WARNING FURTHER WEST OR NORTH...SINCE CURRENT
MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDS AS THEY WILL
REMAIN RATHER STRONG THOUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM CURRENT ADVY/HI WIND HILITES
LOOK FINE OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND WILL KEEP UP INTO THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WILL TRIM OUT DAWES AND BOX BUTTE COUNTIES AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE.
UPPER LOW OVER NEB WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD OR MEANDER
THROUGH WEDS WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE BOTH AFTERNOONS. BIG DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH. CLOUDS AND PCPN
WILL TEND TO LIMIT MIXING SOME. PROGGED 800MB WINDS FOR TUESDAY
ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY WHERE MOST AREAS STAYED IN ADVISORY SPEEDS.
WILL NEED AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THE PANHANDLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
COULD FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND LEVELS DESPITE SLIGHTLY LESS GRADIENT
IF MORE MIXING OCCURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON NEW HILITES FOR NOW...
ALLOWING CURRENT ONES TO EXPIRE FIRST.
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
THEN SHOULD TREND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDS AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OCCURS
OVER THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE JUST A
BIT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROF OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SCENARIO WILL FAVOR RATHER
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM UP TAKING PLACE
THIS WEEKEND AS 700MB TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES APPROACH
TO 1 STANDARD DEVIATION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY. IT MAY BE A TAD COOLER ACROSS
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF PUSHING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY WE MAY SEE MORE OF A THREAT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO DOUGLAS. THIS AREA MAY ACTUALLY SEE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
1000J/KG. WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF THE WAVES.
SUNDAY-MONDAY:
THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE. THE SURFACE LEE
TROF MAY ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH MAY FAVOR BETTER MOISTURE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014
STRATUS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE KCDR AND KAIA AERODROMES THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST HRRR FORECAST
DOES SHOW SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS UP THAT WAY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. BIG ISSUE IS WIND...WHICH WILL DIE OFF SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT...BUT THEN PICK UP AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME TUESDAY. WIND
GUSTS OR 45 TO 50KTS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AIRPORTS
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE COOL TO MILD THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE WEEK THEN
WARM SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NON-
CRITICAL OUTSIDE OF WINDS WHICH WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ095-096.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ019>021-054-055.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1127 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYING
FARTHER SOUTH THAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...AND THE LOW
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING FARTHER EASTWARD TOO. THIS MAKES IT MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. DRY WEDGE ALREADY WRAPPING NORTHWARDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE LIKELY WRAPPED WESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THE FARTHER EAST TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SUMMIT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SNOW STARTS TO WIND DOWN IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THE TREND OF 06Z DATA POINTING TOWARDS LESS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. RADAR RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING THE ENHANCEMENT THAT
WAS EARLIER EXPECTED EITHER BY THIS POINT. SO...HAVE OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NOT TO SAY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT FALL TODAY...JUST IN LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SE WYOMING INTO THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. STRONG NW WINDS ALSO WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH EASING SOME THIS EVENING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
840 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYING
FARTHER SOUTH THAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...AND THE LOW
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING FARTHER EASTWARD TOO. THIS MAKES IT MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. DRY WEDGE ALREADY WRAPPING NORTHWARDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE LIKELY WRAPPED WESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THE FARTHER EAST TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SUMMIT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SNOW STARTS TO WIND DOWN IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THE TREND OF 06Z DATA POINTING TOWARDS LESS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. RADAR RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING THE ENHANCEMENT THAT
WAS EARLIER EXPECTED EITHER BY THIS POINT. SO...HAVE OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NOT TO SAY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT FALL TODAY...JUST IN LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
RADAR SHOWS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT KLAR IN IFR VIS AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AT KCYS BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LARGE
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FCSTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
IFR VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
35-45 KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
607 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THE TREND OF 06Z DATA POINTING TOWARDS LESS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. RADAR RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING THE ENHANCEMENT THAT
WAS EARLIER EXPECTED EITHER BY THIS POINT. SO...HAVE OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NOT TO SAY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT FALL TODAY...JUST IN LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
RADAR SHOWS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT KLAR IN IFR VIS AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AT KCYS BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LARGE
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FCSTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
IFR VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
35-45 KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
553 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
RADAR SHOWS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT KLAR IN IFR VIS AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AT KCYS BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LARGE
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FCSTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
IFR VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
35-45 KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. KLAR COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER AROUND 09Z...SO
HAVE IFR VIS IN LIGHT SNOW AT THAT POINT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KCDR THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER AROUND 09Z...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-105-
110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...HAVE
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND ARE GENERALLY STILL IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPREADS WESTWARD...ALONG WITH SOME ADIABATIC
COOLING FROM LIFTING ACROSS EAST FACING TERRAIN.
THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A DOWNSLOPING E/SE
FLOW MAY HELP TO OCCASIONALLY BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NOONTIME...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND
PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
SOME BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN AND WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING IS POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RUC 13/HRRR
AND HI-RES WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING...WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 1-3 PM...INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND
4 PM...ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION/SE ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN 4-6 PM...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 6-8 PM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS DUE TO WET
BULB/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...EXCEPT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE 300 K
SFC...WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A DRY WEDGE AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL ADVECTS
WESTWARD...WHILE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THIS LAYER. GUSTY E/SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED-THU MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...AS WELL AS THE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED INTO WED NT...RESULTING IN THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE
RAIN MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WED AM...BEFORE SEVERAL
SURGES OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP LATE WED AFTN INTO WED
NT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0
TO -2 C RANGE WED NT FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. BY EARLY THU...THE BEST AXIS OF FORCING AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT...AND PERHAPS SW MA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL LINE UP...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ANY POTENTIAL AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THIS AXIS
COULD SET UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT DEEPER CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE DEVELOPING
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NJ OR NYC/LI COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FURTHER N INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED SHOULD BE QUITE COOL GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...WITH
MAXES GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS WILL
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY FROM THESE MAX TEMPS EARLY WED
NT...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN LATE WED NT.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH. IF THIS POTENTIAL
INCREASES FURTHER...THEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
THU AFTN-THU NT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THU NT. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
REACH 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE IF SOME BREAKS OF
SUN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THU NT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE FA WITH SEVERAL VORT
MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ACRS THE SE
PTN OF THE FA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE ACRS THE
WRN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST. SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS SATURDAY ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE AND CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S ONCE AGAIN..
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEIR WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN POPS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLOUDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
STAY DRY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF...MOST SITES WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT
AND BKN-OVC CIGS AT 25K BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN HOURS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTN
OR EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH KALB/KGFL...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
STAY VFR FOR THESE SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU/KPSF MAY SEE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS INCREASE. MOST TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY BY LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR KPSF
WHICH WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUESDAY...AND BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND 40-50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 75-90
PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH A WETTING RAINFALL DEVELOPING. THE RH WILL
FALL INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT TO 10-20 MPH...THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 15-30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO NW CT...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.THE RAIN
COULD COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS
1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BACK RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DURING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...SOME OF
THE RIVER POINTS IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WOULD REACH ACTION STAGE
WITH CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
BASIN AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND STEVENSON DAM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECASTED
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD FUTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/11
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
416 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
309 AM CDT
MASSIVE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS A VERY
IMPRESSIVE REX BLOCK AS SET UP WITH A NEARLY 580DM UPPER HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY. MODELS DO WEAKEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WHICH ALLOWS UPPER LOW TO WOBBLE NORTHWARD WHILE SLOWLY FILLING
AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE REGION GRADUALLY LESSENING.
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING.
BAROCLINICITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMNANT WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH...WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A PRONOUNCE MID LEVEL
DRY INTRUSION ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING AND RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CONCERNED THAT THIS MIXED SUNSHINE COULD RESULT IN MODEST SFC BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. MANY OF THE VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE DEPICTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE MODEST...THE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH 0-4KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KT
(ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE) DOES
RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT A LOW TOPPED/MINI SUPERCELL SCENARIO
POTENTIALLY UNFOLDING TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND STORM MOTION
SHOULD BE LARGELY PERPENDICULAR TO THE WARM FRONT...SO EVEN IF MINI
SUP`S DO MATERIALIZE ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF AND VERY
LIKELY ON THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY SPECTRUM BUT SOMETHING TO
MONITOR TODAY NONE THE LESS.
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SIZABLE BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
LIKELY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO AREA TONIGHT. REALLY IT SHOULD
BE THE SAME STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OCNL BOUTS
OF AT LEAST SCT`D SHOWERS. TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES PIVOTING
AROUND THE WOBBLING UPPER LOW IS DIFFICULT A DAY OR TWO OUT...BUT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF AT LEAST SCTD
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DRY HOURS LIKELY OUT
NUMBERING RAINY HOURS BY A SIGNIFICANT RATIO.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP NICELY
GIVEN SOME MIXED SUNSHINE AND THE LIMITED WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE. OVER TIME THE UPPER COLD POOL WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA AND SHOULD KEEP SKIES LARGELY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES MUCH
COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSITION TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODEL BLENDED COCKTAIL DID COME UP WITH POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ATTEMPTED TO BACK OFF SOME BUT RELUCTANTLY
WAS LEFT WITH SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS WEEKEND IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST...BUT SUSPECT THOSE POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED IN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH ARND 11Z...WITH A BREAK IN PCPN
POTENTIAL UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* ELY-ESELY WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN VEERING
SLY WITH OCNL GUSTS TO ARND 15KT.
* IFR AND OCNL LIFR CIGS UNTIL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN 10-12Z.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE PCPN HAS LIFTED NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS...BUT IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS
STILL THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE. AS OF 09Z...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO ANYWHERE FROM 200FT TO
500FT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE WARM
FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND SLOWLY MOVING NWD WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN IL/IN BTWN
10-12Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SLY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SFC WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SO
ANTICIPATE THAT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN
10KT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
MIDWEST...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LOWER EXTENT AND DURATION OF IFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. A STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AS THE WARM FRONT INCHES NORTHWARD...THE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY RELAX FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND WEAKENING. HAVE
LET THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE EXPIRE
AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAS
ALREADY WEAKENED ENOUGH TO LET WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW GALE
FORCE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
WINDS FINALLY DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH UP THE LAKE...RELATIVELY WARMER AND
MOIST AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE COLDER WATERS OF THE LAKE...WHICK
WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. THIS FOG MAY BE OCCASIONALLY
DENSE...AND WILL CONTINUE CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WHILE A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...GENERAL LOW PRESSURE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
CONTINUED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
351 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2014
Upper low over the Missouri River Valley this morning with an
occluding sfc low...and occluded front wrapped up all the way over
into Central Illinois. Forecast both deceptively simple and
problematic. Very little in the way of detail available with the
upper low parking over the center of the country and keeping much
of the Midwest under the influence of the cyclonic flow. Cloudy,
cool, and periodic rain chances will keep ILX in a rather
springlike pattern for most of the remains of the week. By the
weekend, the upper low ejects to the NE, with Central Illinois in
northwesterly flow. Although it is a pattern shift, northwesterly
flow is just as dominated by periodic precip. Forecast peppered
with pops through Day 7, and cooler than average overall.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Though models hinting to keep us dry this morning with some drier
air on sat imagery, most models quickly get showery again this
afternoon under the upper low. With cyclonic flow aloft, any
clearing will lend itself to a diurnal shower pattern. Pops in the
overnight tonight may be slightly overdone, once the diurnal
influence disappears at dusk, but will have to see the wave pattern
pushing around the low today to see if another dynamic may hold
the showers over into the night hours. Tomorrow is similarly
cloudy but even cooler as more cold air builds into the region.
Similar afternoon shower potential. Keeping thunder out of the
forecast as the low further occludes and loses a bit of potency.
Tomorrow night shower pops starting to erode...and maintain the
better chances closer to the low center as it begins to drift
across the nrn tier of the state and open up.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Cloudy, cool, and another chance of afternoon showers for
Thursday, though if the models continue to push the upper low out
on Thursday afternoon/evening, that influence may go away and dry
out that pd. For Friday through the weekend...Cooler temps and
northwesterly flow. Pops are low overall bc there is little
consistency from model to model with small wave rippling through
the flow aloft. A southerly component to the winds and a building
ridge over the Plains slowly bring temps up late in the weekend.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
tonight through Tuesday afternoon, before MVFR ceilings gradually
spread in from the west. Earlier rains have pushed east of the TAF
sites late this evening, leaving behind a mid-level overcast and
dry conditions. Clouds will tend to thin/dissipate as the night
progresses, with partly sunny skies noted by Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, an upper-level low currently centered over eastern
Kansas will slowly track eastward, spreading lower clouds and
scattered showers into the area toward midday into the afternoon.
Based on HRRR and NAM data, have introduced VCSH at KPIA and KSPI
by 18z, then further east to KCMI after 22z. While clouds will
thicken/lower later in the day, MVFR ceilings will hold off until
evening between 00z and 03z. Winds will initially be light from
the E/SE tonight, but then will become gusty out of the S/SW on
Tuesday. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts of
around 20kt across much of the area and in the 20 to 25kt range
further east at KCMI.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
230 PM CDT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM 17Z...
THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEBRASKA TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. AS OF 16 UTC...THIS FRONT IS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF
KSPI...EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR KDEC AND TO THE NORTH OF KRSV IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
INTO MY FAR SOUTHERN CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT FEATURES TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY NEAR 60 AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE TYPICAL LOW IFR CIGS AND EASTERLY COOL
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT A MID LEVEL VORT MAX/IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 70 KT...PER 12 UTC RAOBS OUT OF
KSGF AND KLZK AND THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL EJECT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS THIS
OCCURS...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS.
A MID LEVEL COLD POOL...FEATURING 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18
C...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME SUPER CELLS...AND GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...THIS AFTERNOON LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. IT STILL APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SMALL TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN CLOSER PROXIMATELY TO
THE UPPER LOW...WHERE BETTER VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE PRESENT.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80...AND THE MAIN TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND 3-4
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7-8 PM THIS EVENING.
KJB
TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ANY
STORMS THAT PASS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO THE CWFA
COULD PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WITH SUCH A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE SOLAR SHIELDING FOR THE BULK OF THE CWFA...WHICH
KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE EXCEPTION IS
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THE STRONG EAST FLOW HAS
HELD TEMPS IN THE UPR 40S. KILX 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES...ABOVE THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. AN ARC OF STORMS WAS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHWEST. GIVEN
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...MAINLY WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION HELICITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
INCREASED...WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD BEGIN TO ROTATE. THUS THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT ZERO. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THOUGH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY WEDGE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWFA THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM EARLIER THINKING...WHICH
WAS MAINLY JUST A LOWERING OF POPS TO SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION IT DOES APPEAR THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END
ARND MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TUE MORNING. THE
DOMINANT LONGWAVE FEATURE REMAINS THE SFC RIDGE PARKED OVER HUDSON
BAY...WHICH HAS REMAINED VERY STRONG. THIS IS CREATING A
LOG-JAM...IN THAT THE MID-LVL VORT/SFC LOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
DEPART THE REGION VERY QUICKLY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH SOME HEATING AT THE SFC EXPECTED
TUE...AND MID-LVL INSTABILITY...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP. FORTUNATELY THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUE AFTN. THEN FOR WED IT LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH TEMPS
BEING ABLE TO REACH THE LOW/MID 60S. THEN WITH CONSIDERABLE SOLAR
SHIELDING WED/THUR TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE
50S. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN INDICATING A HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEVELOPING
ACROSS ALASKA AND COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE TROUGHING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN A SLOW RELAXING OF THE TROUGH INTO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...THEN A WEAK WAVE IS
PROGGED TO QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL CONDITIONS.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH ARND 09Z...WITH A BREAK IN PCPN
POTENTIAL UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* ELY-ESELY WINDS ARND 10KT THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN VEERING
SLY WITH OCNL GUSTS TO ARND 15KT.
* VARIABLE CIGS BTWN VFR AND MVFR. OCNL BRIEF PERIODS IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ARND 10Z.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD...DEEP UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
SCATTERED AREAS OF PCPN MOVING NWD DRIVEN BY STRONG SLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...SO SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELY-ESELY UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS STILL
THROUGH CNTRL IL/IN...BUT SLOWLY MOVING NWD. CIGS WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN WHILE THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF IFR CIGS OVER THE AREA...WITH RFD/DPA/GYY STARTING OUT
THE PERIOD WITH IFR CIGS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF
CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR AT ORD/MDW...BUT TIMING AND DURATION REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...SO WILL KEEP CIGS AT LOWER END MVFR AT ORD/MDW FOR
NOW...THOUGH AMENDMENTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ANTICIPATE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN IL/IN BTWN
12-15Z...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SLY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SFC WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SO
ANTICIPATE THAT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN
10KT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCT
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE
MIDWEST...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND DURATION OF IFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF SCT SHRA...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY REACHING NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PIVOT NORTH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT LYING WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE LAKE BY LATE TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THIS REGION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT....
AND AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER FAR NORTHERN
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER EARLY EVENING AS
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS NORTH FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE COLDER
WATERS OF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...
OCCASIONALLY DENSE... CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
WHILE A MORE RELAXED GRADIENT WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN... LOW PRESSURE
AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 25 KTS LATE WEEK HOWEVER
WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
Line of convection has pushed east of the I-55 corridor and
weakened considerably this evening as it encountered a more stable
airmass across east-central Illinois. 01z/8PM surface analysis
shows 992mb low over western Iowa, with warm frontal boundary
extending eastward across the far northern KILX CWA. Meanwhile, a
cold front/dryline is analyzed arcing southeastward from the low
to near I-55. Showers/storms will continue ahead of the dryline
for the next couple of hours before diminishing and pushing into
Indiana around midnight. Updated the forecast to better reflect
hourly temps and expected POP trends for the remainder of the
night. New zones have already been sent.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the central Illinois terminals
tonight through Tuesday afternoon, before MVFR ceilings gradually
spread in from the west. Earlier rains have pushed east of the TAF
sites late this evening, leaving behind a mid-level overcast and
dry conditions. Clouds will tend to thin/dissipate as the night
progresses, with partly sunny skies noted by Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, an upper-level low currently centered over eastern
Kansas will slowly track eastward, spreading lower clouds and
scattered showers into the area toward midday into the afternoon.
Based on HRRR and NAM data, have introduced VCSH at KPIA and KSPI
by 18z, then further east to KCMI after 22z. While clouds will
thicken/lower later in the day, MVFR ceilings will hold off until
evening between 00z and 03z. Winds will initially be light from
the E/SE tonight, but then will become gusty out of the S/SW on
Tuesday. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance suggest gusts of
around 20kt across much of the area and in the 20 to 25kt range
further east at KCMI.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014
Main concerns will be storms developing over the area and moving
in from the west this afternoon and early tonight. Then the
concern will shift and become the continue chances of diurnal
precip for the rest of the week as the upper level low slowly
drifts eastward into the Great Lakes region later this week. Models
look ok with the overall pattern and sfc features through the
period. Only differences seen will be in the mesoscale features
for rest of the afternoon and into tonight.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Tornado watch continues til 7pm as storms have fired on the dry
line in MO early this afternoon. These storms will be moving
northeast and northerly during the period over the western parts
of the area. Hail appears to be the main threat right now, but
isolated tornadoes will also be possible if the storms begin to
rotate. The storms are low-topped and will remain that way.
Thunderstorms will be possible again tomorrow as the upper level
low will still be northwest of the area, though closer than today.
Severe weather is not expected tomorrow as the best moisture will
have moved east of the area. Skies will also be cloudy south of
the low system, so instability will be quite low. Then diurnal
showers will be possible remainder of the period as the the
forecast area remains in cyclonic flow through the week. This flow
will also have temps much cooler through the period.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
Cyclonic flow continues through the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Then by end of the weekend, the system will push out of
the area. We will finally have some dry periods as high pressure
builds in for a brief period. Then another system is expected to
move into the area for Sunday.
Temps will remain on the cool side through the period.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
141 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS OF 0530Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND DESPITE SOME TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL BE FRESHENING UP THE POP FORECAST IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF THE HOURS FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE AND SEND OUT A NEW
ZFP THEN. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO NDFD SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BAND OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND A QUICKER TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD DAWN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST
FLOW ESPECIALLY INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SEEMS TO BE LIMITING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. ALSO... INSTABILITY DECREASES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT... SOME STRONG STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE DURATION OF THE NIGHT.
THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST...THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CUT INTO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR VA COULD BE GUSTY
AT TIMES AND SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
THE LULL CONTINUES WITH THE STORMS. JKL AWAITS THE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WEST AND THEN A PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST RAP
AND HRRR MODELS. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE TORNADO WATCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY REAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TIMING AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE T/TD ONES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT IS LAID OUT TO THE EAST JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS PLACES EAST KENTUCKY WELL INTO TO THE
BROAD WARM SECTOR AND THUS RIPE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THIS IS HELPING STORMS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER. MEANWHILE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF
THE CWA...DUE TO THE COLD POOL FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO THE WEST AND
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION TAME THERE...FOR
NOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WHILE THE WINDS ARE RATHER VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KTS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND SPREADING
WAVES OF ENERGY CLUSTERS OVER EAST KENTUCKY AS IT DOES SO. THE BROAD
CLOSED LOW THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TUESDAY WHILE ONE LAST BATCH OF ENERGY RIDES THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING
THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EACH NEW CLUSTER WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE DEPENDING ON THE INSTABILITY LEFT
BEHIND BY EARLIER STORMS AND CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WAS WHAT SET UP THE STORMS FOR FAR EAST KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ABOUT THAT TIME...THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WORKING TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EAST
KENTUCKY LATER IN THE EVENING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE SET UP REMAINS INTACT. THE ACTUAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THESE LATER EVENTS WILL BE PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON THE EARLIER
EVOLUTION SO IT BECOMES HARDER TO PIN POINT. DO EXPECT THIS OVERNIGHT
WAVE OF STORMS TO MOVE ON THROUGH TOWARDS DAWN AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ISOLATED TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO AND SPS. AFTER A MIDDAY LULL ON TUESDAY...LOW TOPPED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
CONTINUING POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...INCLUDING A SLIGHT TORNADO THREAT
DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MORE SUNSHINE THAT
MANAGES TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL PLAY INTO HOW STRONG THE
STORMS COULD BECOME. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER
THAT NIGHT AND SHOULD END THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO WIND
DOWN THE THUNDER CHANCES.
USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL THEREAFTER. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NUMBERS MAINLY TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THURSDAY...AND THEN ON INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY. AFTER THIS
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY AS A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THE FLOW WILL BE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING
THOUGH.
HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
EXPECT TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. WILL
PIN POINT TIMES OF WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME
BEFORE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THROUGH THIS
TIME...THERE STANDS THE CHANCE OF A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM PASSING BY
ONE OF THE TAF SITES. A NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY THE LAST
6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FOR WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
TEMPS IF MODELS VERIFY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CIGS LOWER TO LIFR AND REMAIN LIFR INTO TUE EVENING. SAW
HAS DECOUPLED SO PUT LLWS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO SAT AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
503 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES TO WRN HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...GUSTY EAST WINDS
PREVAILED AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND A LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NRN WI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS IN LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS IT ENCOUNTERS
DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 800 MB) TO THE NORTH AND EAST...PER 12Z APX
SOUNDING.
SOME PCPN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING BUT SINCE IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MAINLY SPRINKLES...ONLY CHANCE POPS
WERE INCLUDED. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO UPPER MI...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
TUE MORNING. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SSE TO NNW BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE TROWAL REGION
NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...PER MODELS 310-320 THETA-E LAYER.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH
RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH TUE. UPSLOPE NE FLOW
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN
TYPE OVER THE INTERIOR...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN THIRD TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...VERY LOW
SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY TO AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED ON
GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
TEMPS IF MODELS VERIFY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CIGS LOWER TO LIFR AND REMAIN LIFR INTO TUE EVENING. SAW
HAS DECOUPLED SO PUT LLWS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND A
STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY. ENE GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUE BUT SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THE 30 KNOTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES...THE WATCH WAS
RETAINED FOR THIS LOCATION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM WED INTO FRI AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
208 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE ERN LAKES TO WRN HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...GUSTY EAST WINDS
PREVAILED AS A RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND A LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NRN WI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS IN LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS IT ENCOUNTERS
DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 800 MB) TO THE NORTH AND EAST...PER 12Z APX
SOUNDING.
SOME PCPN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WI BORDER THIS EVENING BUT SINCE IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...MAINLY SPRINKLES...ONLY CHANCE POPS
WERE INCLUDED. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO UPPER MI...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PCPN TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
TUE MORNING. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SSE TO NNW BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE REGION WILL FALL UNDER THE TROWAL REGION
NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...PER MODELS 310-320 THETA-E LAYER.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH
RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH TUE. UPSLOPE NE FLOW
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN
AMOUNTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN
TYPE OVER THE INTERIOR...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WRN THIRD TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...VERY LOW
SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY TO AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED ON
GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGEST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE U.P. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF A
BREAK ON THE PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL/EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE OVER THE EAST THIRD...BUT STILL WOULD
EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL. BETTER DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AFTER THAT...AND WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
AND BROADENS/WEAKENS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND TO THE POPS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH...THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE POPS NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP...BUT PINNING THOSE DOWN AT THIS TIME IS TOO
DIFFICULT.
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPPING IN DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW TO CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING (EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING MIX NEAR IRONWOOD).
THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AROUND THE LOW (REMAINING AROUND
2-4C AT 850MB) THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING
AS RAIN. THEN AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO
COOL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD LEAD TO A
TRANSITION TO TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX HEADING INTO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL IDEA SHOWN BY THE
1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0 HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SINCE IT WAS LARGELY DEALING WITH A NEAR SURFACE WARM
LAYER. DID PUT IN SOME FOG FOR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF MOIST AIR.
ELSEWHERE...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE JUST A LOW STRATUS DECK. ALL IN
ALL...LOOKS TO BE A COOL/CLOUDY/SHOWERY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT POINT. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR MORE ZONAL
FLOW OR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE DRIER PERIOD THAN SEEN THIS
WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE 12Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BRING SOME
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MONDAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT MAY END UP DRY WITH
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUE MORNING AT ALL SITES.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES AS CIGS LOWER TO LIFR AND REMAIN LIFR INTO TUE EVENING. SAW
HAS DECOUPLED SO PUT LLWS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN
PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND A
STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY. ENE GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUE BUT SINCE THERE WAS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THE 30 KNOTS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES...THE WATCH WAS
RETAINED FOR THIS LOCATION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE EVENING AS
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE TUE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM WED INTO FRI AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THESE
RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER
RIVERS WILL START TO RISE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES
BY THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF
HIGHER QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS THIS
WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ264>266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...SRF/TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1229 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES AFTER PREVIOUS CHANGES TO CHASE THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND TYPE HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT
TONIGHT. WHILE CLOQUET AND WEST DULUTH HAVE BEEN GETTING SNOW,
THEN RAIN, THEN SLEET, THEN SNOW. HERE AT THE AIRPORT WE HAD
SLEET, BUT HAVEN`T HAD ANY PRECIPITATION FOR 4 HOURS. BUT SLEETING
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE NWS AT ADOLPH. VERY TIGHT GRADIENT. PCPN AREA IS
JUST ALONG OR NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 IN MN AND VERY GENERALLY
ALONG 2 IN WI. NORTH OF THE PCPN DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS.
SOUTH..THEY ARE IN THE 30S. SO THE DRY AIR IS WINNING FOR NOW.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO TUESDAY ATTM,..BUT INTERESTING TO SEE
BOTH THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTHLAND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT SO
WILL LEAVE POPS AS ARE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 443 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
UPDATED TO ADD SLEET AS HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE DULUTH AREA FOR
PAST HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AT 315PM/2015Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS HAD CLOUDY
SKIES DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED EAST OF
HUDSON BAY. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA HAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHLAND
HAD GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS. THE WINDS WERE PARTICULARLY STRONG
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AREA. THE TWIN
PORTS AREA WAS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 MPH. THE BONG AND BLATNIK BRIDGES BETWEEN DULUTH AND
SUPERIOR WERE SEEING EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE
ARROWHEAD AND IRON RANGE AREAS WERE PRIMARILY DRY DUE TO DRIER AIR
FROM CANADA FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THERE HAD REPORTS THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OF POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED
TREES ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE THE WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED PCPN.
LET US BEGIN WITH THE WINDS. IT APPEARS THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE STRONGER WINDS AWAY FROM DULUTH AND
TO THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW WISCONSIN. WE MIGHT NEED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE COUNTIES THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT IF
IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THAT TIME.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO
FIZZLE OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THAT A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PCPN COULD LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING DUE TO SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE
HRRR/WRF/NAM ARE SHOWING THIS BANDS SOMEWHERE NEAR...OVER...OR
SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS. ALSO...MORE DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO CHANCES OF PCPN WILL DECREASE ACROSS
THE NW FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
COOL INTO THIS EVENING...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR AT LEAST MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND BORDER AREAS
OF NW WISCONSIN. THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND CLOQUET AREAS THIS EVENING IF THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL QUICKLY ENOUGH BEFORE THE PCPN
TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING...SO I DID NOT FORECAST ANY ICE ACCUMULATION AND HELD
OFF ON ANOTHER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED
TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE SNOW
THAT WILL FALL TONIGHT WILL LIKELY MELT. HOWEVER...IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL MORE THAN THOUGHT...THEN THERE COULD
BE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. I FORECASTED ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE TWIN PORTS / CLOQUET / MOOSE LAKES
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE MID 30S MUCH LONGER THAN THE TWIN PORTS AREA...WHERE IT
WILL COOL TO THE LOW 30S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE A
SHORTWAVE LOBE CYCLONICALLY INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS A
SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OCCUR NEAR THE 85H LEVEL AND WORKS
ITS WAY FROM THE SRN CWA INTO THE CTRL CWA AS THE DAY UNFOLDS.
UNFORTUNATELY WE STILL HAVE PTYPE ISSUES AS THE USUAL CAST OF
CHARACTERS...VERTICAL MOTION...ICE CRYSTAL INITIATION OR NOT...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. WILL GO AHEAD AND GIVE IT THE BEST SHOT AND
PUSH AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY ACROSS NW WISC ZONES INTO
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 12Z/18Z. MAY SEE A FEW INCHES IN THAT TIME
HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR AND ABOVE FREEZING ENOUGH MELTING AND
COMPACTION MAY OCCUR TO REDUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT ARE DIFFICULT
BEYOND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A
BLOCKED MID LVL FLOW AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY...IF NOT LONGER. THE
SFC LOW WILL CRAWL SLOWLY EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY.
THE DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN
THE AREA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE OCCASIONAL IN
NATURE. MDL CONSENSUS QPF SUGGESTS AREAL AVERAGES OF ABOUT .25 TO
.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SPRING BLOCKS
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR MAINTAINING THEIR INTEGRITY...LATEST NWP
SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL BE
EJECTED EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AN AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OF SNOW...RAIN OR SLEET...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS OF
KDLH...KHIB AND KINL WILL BE MAINLY VFR. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GO
BACK DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR LATER TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 12Z TO 18Z AS
MORE ROBUST LIFT AND MOISTURE COME BACK TO TO THE REGION FOR MORE
SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 40 35 43 / 90 80 60 50
INL 34 45 37 45 / 80 80 60 50
BRD 35 44 37 46 / 80 80 60 40
HYR 34 45 36 46 / 90 80 60 60
ASX 34 40 35 43 / 90 80 60 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CLC/MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS A NEGATIVE
TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A DOWN STREAM
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY NWWD INTO THE HUDSON BAY
OF CANADA. A STRONG JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NRN CALIFORNIA...TO
CENTRAL TX...CURVING NE INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
WITHIN THIS FEATURE...A 90+KT JET MAX EXTENDED FROM SERN OK INTO FAR
NERN ARKANSAS. WV IMAGERY AS OF MIDDAY HAS THE UPPER LOW NEAR
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER NERN NEBRASKA A COLD FRONT EXTENDED EAST SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 58 MPH AT
THEDFORD AND NORTH PLATTE. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
NEDOR CAMS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT
SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS BROWN AND KEYA PAHA COUNTIES. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST INTO THE THESE AREAS.
WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA SO THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SEVERAL HAZARDS TO CONTENT WITH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...INCLUDING
STRONG WINDS...RAIN AND SNOW.
THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY INCREASING 850 MB WINDS OVERNIGHT TO 60
KTS OVER SW NEB. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR DAYTIME
MIXING AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS. THEN OVERNIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING AND A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. SO FAR TODAY THE SHOWERS HAVE HELP TO
LIMIT THE MIXING AND EXPECT THE NEXT DEFORMATION BAND TO DEVELOP AND
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND LIMIT MIXING THE VERY STRONG
WINDS TO THE SFC.
NOW PRECIP IS AN ISSUE. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO ARE SPREADING INTO
PORTIONS OF NW NEB EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NAM/EC/GEM...HOWEVER THE GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS IS CRITICAL AS LIKE LAST NIGHT...NW NEB
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR RETURN FOR SNOW. MODELS BRING MORE OF THE
COLD AIR INTO CHERRY COUNTY...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE LOW IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SE...AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. A MIX OR A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN AND CHERRY
AS THE SNOW SHOULD PILE UP TO A FEW INCHES...AND CANNOT RULE OUT
AROUND 6 NEAR THE BORDER.
TOMORROW TEMPS WARM A LITTLE IN THE MORNING AND A CHANGE TO ALL
LIQUID IS EXPECTED. MODELS BRING MORE DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH
WRAPS ESPECIALLY INTO SW NEB. DID LOWER POPS AND COULD EASILY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEB
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY...CONVERTING THE WINTER WX TO A WIND
ADVISORY AS THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END. THE BIG CONCERN HERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA IF WE SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE SKY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND BETTER MIXING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING INTO THE 20S. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCIES BTW THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF H85
TEMPS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BEING 2 TO 4C COOLER COMPARED TO
THE NAM SOLN. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...DECIDED TO BLEND THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LED TO LOWS AROUND 30 IN
THE WEST...TO 35 IN THE EAST. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE LATEST
MODELS PUSH A NICE PLUME OF DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
ABOVE 6000 FT AGL...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR PCPN ANYMORE AND
HAVE ELIMINATED IT FROM THE FCST FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RETROGRADE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SRN MINNESOTA. A NICE VORT
LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AND WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
WEDS AFTERNOON/WEDS EVENING. ATTM...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LEVEL AND LOW COND
PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE WEDS AFTN/EVE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FACILITATE GOOD MIXING. WITH H85
WINDS AROUND 35 KTS WEDS AFTN...ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAY FACILITATE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDS EVENING. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
AND WARMER TEMPS WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
FRIDAY TO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM...BEING ABSORBED BY A QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S. MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL FRONTO BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. ENHANCED LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
NRN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INSERTED SOME
LOW POPS INTO THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
MVFR IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS ANDLOCAL IFR/LIFR IN SNOW CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TUESDAY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WHEN ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR TUESDAY
EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW 3000 FEET AGL.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT VFR COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY 00Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004-005-
007-009-010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ006-008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. FOLLOWED CLOSELY
TO THE 04 UTC HRRR FOR POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BASED UPON THE SUPERIOR VERIFICATION OF THE HRRR
THROUGHOUT THIS STORM. PREDOMINATELY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
WEST...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 36-38 F RANGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
CONTINUING TO SEE TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING JAMES RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN MAINLY
RAIN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE CONTINUING TO SEE LIGHT SNOW WEST AND A
MIX CENTRAL. MAIN CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO INCREASE TEMPS EAST
AND KEEP A MIX OF PRECIP THERE LONGER. AREA OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
REFLECTIVITIES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH A SLOW
EXPANSION OF WEAK REFLECTIVITIES TOWARD THE UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FARTHER NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIP TYPE AND TEMPS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. REFLECTIVITIES HAVE DIMINISHED IN GENERAL...BUT
CONTINUE TO SEE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FARTHER EAST...INCLUDING JAMESTOWN...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES WITH
RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS AT BEST IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...BAND
OF PRECIP HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN ND WITH KISN
RECENTLY REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND KDIK REPORTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
THE LAST OB. RUC/HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AREAS ACROSS THE EAST EXPECTED TO FILL IN
THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...MODELS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH DRYER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE RAIN/SNOW DEMARCATION TONIGHT. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S MANY AREAS THERE IS A FINE LINE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW
FROM HARVEY AND DENHOFF TO JAMESTOWN. SOUTH CENTRAL...AROUND
BISMARCK/MANDAN TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE WEST IT WAS COOL ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE MID 30S BY EARLY EVENING SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MODELS
FORECAST ENOUGH QPF FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY DRYING AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN END TOP
THE PRECIPITATION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AGAIN. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WEST TO THE LOWER 40S
CENTRAL. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH AN ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNT NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AN ACTIVE AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY
ONCE THE LOW LIFTS OUT...THEN QUASI-ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
DRY AIR WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT ENDING MOST IF
NOT ALL PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES/RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST..ALLOWING FOR ONE
OF ITS SPIRAL ARMS OF MOISTURE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ONCE AGAIN
MOVES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE MINIMAL SO ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE
MINIMAL...WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST...SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
FRIDAY...EACH GENERATING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW (DEPENDING ON THE
THERMAL PROFILE AND SFC TEMPERATURES).
FURTHER OUT IN TIME...OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE STILL EXISTS LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY. THE 12Z ECMWF DROPS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH/SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS
FEATURE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. BOTH MAINTAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...RAIN AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END AND STRATUS LIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ON THE DECREASE CURRENTLY. BY 09Z...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE BUT CIGS SHOULD NOT BE TOO LOW THROUGH 12Z. DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RECHARGE ONCE AGAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 18Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AND MAYBE EVEN SEVERE. SOME SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST BEYOND 00Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MID
TN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
OHX VWP IS NOW SHOWING SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD WITH TIME IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE DRIER AIR IS ON THE WAY. THIS IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A CONTINUING DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS GRADUALLY WITH
TIME.
OTW...STILL NO IMMEDIATE THREAT ACROSS THE TOR WATCH AREA.
ACTIVITY OVER NRN AL IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING ANY
STRENGTH. STILL...A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO CANCEL THE WATCH SO WILL
LET IT RIDE FOR NOW.
FOR THE UPDATE...AGAIN WILL LOWER POPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
COVERAGE OVER THE MID STATE HAS DECREASED SOME AND IS MORE BROKEN
IN NATURE NOW. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER WEAK
ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE ALTHOUGH 850 MB WIND IS STILL REASONABLY
STRONG. STILL HOWEVER...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP HAS NOT MADE
MUCH OF AN ADVANCEMENT EASTWARD YET.
FURTHER EAST...CURRENTLY THE TOR WATCH AREA IS NOT UNDER AN
IMMEDIATE THREAT. HOWEVER...WE DO SEE SOME STORM REDEVELOPMENT
OVER NW AL AT THIS TIME AND HELICITY VALUES OVER THE WATCH AREA
REMAIN ELEVATED. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING
FOR NOW. MAY BEGIN TO TAPER POPS ACROSS OUR WEST IN AN HOUR OR
TWO...DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRENDS. OTW...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CSV AREA. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE CSV AND BNA AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH STRONG OR
SEVERE LIMITS NEAR CSV BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
09Z FOR CSV WITH A BREAK UNTIL 18Z ON TUESDAY WHEN TSTMS MAY FIRE
UP AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
UPDATE...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MARCHING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU. LAPS STILL SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF AMPLIFIED
HELICITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THE HELICITY STRENGTH IS ON
THE DOWN SLIDE. TOR WATCH NUMBER 111 WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
FOR NOW FOR THOSE 6 COUNTIES IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
OTW...BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM
CLARKSVILLE SW THROUGH LOBELVILLE. NO EASTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED
AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH IS INDICATED.
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR WINNING OUT LATER
TONIGHT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE AN EASTWARD PUSH WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...PERHAPS A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD
STILL DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.
FOR THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LATEST LAPS DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS OVER
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH IS WHERE THE TOR WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CAPE
VALUES...SHOWALTERS ALL IN SUPPORT OF THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM
DICKSON COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH GILES COUNTY WITH AGAIN...THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
WE DO SEE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BACK
ACROSS WESTERN KY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DEGREE OF INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THUS...IT MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME DEVELOPING INTO SOMETHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THE IDEA OF NO REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGEST CONVECTION.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELLS COULD CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTHERN PLATEAU.
AS FOR THE FLOOD THREAT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL EXISTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS UPPER LOW
LAGGING AND SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON THE NOSE OF A 115-KT UPPER JET HAS LED TO AMPLE PRECIP
ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS LED TO 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-65 AND SOUTH OF I-40...WHERE RESIDUAL FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TN AND WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ISSUE THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOON.
MORE INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING CONVECTION DROPPED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE POINTS NORTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE COLD POOL REGION...AND POINTS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE. THIS BOUNDARY
EVEN CURLS BACK TO THE WEST A BIT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH
SFC CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SPC ISSUED A
PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
UNTIL 9PM. ANYTHING CLOSEST TO THE HUNTSVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WHICH MEANS A TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOES ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHERN
MS ALREADY...MOVING NE. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR FAR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. FYI...WE WILL ADD GRUNDY COUNTY TO THE WATCH AS WELL.
ALSO...NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT HAIL WILL BE THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
STORMS IN THE COLD POOL.
SUPERCELLS OVER MS SHOULD COAGULATE INTO A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MIDDLE TN...AND POPS COULD
TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
AROUND 60.
ON TUESDAY...THE SFC LOW SHOULD ROTATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. WOULD THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD EASILY BE GENERATED...THIS TIME WITH MORE SHEAR ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW GETTING CLOSER. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE BEST THREAT. EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY-
SATURDAY IN THE 60S. CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THURSDAY
ON...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MARINE LAYER WITH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY 15Z WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IN LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHER NORTH WINDS BEHIND FRONT SINCE IT
IS HARD TO SAY COLD FRONT WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 90S TODAY. WENT WITH HRRR MODEL DEPICTING MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S. READINGS WILL FINALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS MIXED WITH SMOKE
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND VISIBILITIES ARE VERY
POOR OVER THE WATERS. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER AND KEPT
EXPIRATION TIME AT 14Z. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH
VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVING BEFORE MAIN FRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVES
INTO THE WATERS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SCEC LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE LOW END SCA OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER (TODAY)...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT
WILL EXIST OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM
RH LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LVL LOW
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE
TO LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY...THOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME BEGINS WORKING INTO THE UPPER LVLS DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION MIDWEEK. BY FRIDAY UPPER LVL LOW FINALLY OPENS AND TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH TO THE EAST. RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 57 83 56 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 52 80 50 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 97 60 87 58 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 94 55 84 53 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 88 59 80 59 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 93 52 85 52 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 95 55 84 55 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 62 79 63 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH JUST PASSING KIAH AND SAW
DEWPOINT JUMP NEARLY 21 DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD GET MORE
FOG THAN STRATUS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TAFS
IN THAT TREND BUT MAY NEED MORE AMMENDMENTS. STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH
STILL ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW AND SEE CIGS IMPROVE. WINDS STILL
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT HAS REVERSED AND WAS MOVING INLAND AT 730
PM. DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WERE IN THE
MID 30S...WHILE TO ITS SOUTHEAST THE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER
70S. A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN BE FELT WHEREVER
THE BOUNDARY CROSSES.
THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. STILL THINK PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK THE DEWPOINT AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR IMAGERY AND EVEN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DRY LINE PUSHING BACK NORTH WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND DRY NORTH. BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH BACK NORTH AND
SHOULD SEE A RAPID RISE IN SFC MOISTURE AS IT DOES. MAY GET SOME
LOW STRATUS OR EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. DO NOT
THINK THERE WILL BE VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS AS THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MIXING OVERNIGHT. STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAINLY NW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BE GUSTY. SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND THE DRY LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE CITY OF HOUSTON.
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT THIS EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INLAND.
MOST LIKELY IT SHOULD STALL OUT AROUND A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE DRY LINE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT PUTTING IT AT THE COAST AROUND NOON WHILE
THE ECMWF AND NAM PUT THE FRONT AT THE COAST CLOSER TO 6 PM. HAVE
CONTINUED TO PREFER THE ECMWF TIMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
COULD VARY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT ONE IS ON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK VERY NICE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING ON
THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THE SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN FRIDAY MORNING. THE EURO HAD BEEN HINTING AT SOME
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT HAS SINCE
BACKED OFF. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. KEPT WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS AND REDUCED POPS. 23
MARINE...
WEAKENING WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED IN IT WAKE. BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUTION FLAGS WILL BE
NEEDED...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 82 49 74 46 / 10 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 86 53 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 84 62 76 60 / 10 20 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IA. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WI THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH WED
AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND LOW. HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN NOW MOVING
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. DRY AIR VERY PRESENT ON APX
EVENING SOUNDING BEING ADVECTED IN OVER NORTHERN WI ON STRONG EAST
WINDS...LIMITING PCPN AMOUNTS SO FAR. THIS DRY AIR VERY EVIDENT
OVER FAR NORTH WHERE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 20S. AS PCPN MOVES IN
OVER NORTH SEEING SNOW/SLEET SHOWING UP...THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
STILL MILD SO AM NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS POINT TO
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK WAA BRINGS 850
TEMP UP TO +2 OVER VILAS COUNTY BY TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NORTH
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK OFF...BECOMING LIGHT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WED. MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. WILL ADD TO MARINE
ZONES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFT DEBATE LAND ZONES.
BEST MOISTURE/PW`S OVER 1 INCH NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF STATE...WILL
DROP ISSUING ESF WITH LESSER QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNATURE EVENT) WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEM COULD BRING CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE QPF
FORECAST GRID. UNFORTUNATELY...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHERE
THIS TYPE OF EVENT WOULD FORM. EVEN IF A SHARS EVENT DOES DEVELOP...IT
WOULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN WHAT IS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND COULD IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN
06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY (MAYBE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST).
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...FORCING ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS
POOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOOKED AT THUNDER PROSPECTS...DID NOT SUPPORT ADDING
THUNDER AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WARRANTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM SLOWLY CHURNING ACROSS MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF
SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ON
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TO KEEP CIGS
MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.
COMPACT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ENSURE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR A FEW
DAYS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......RE
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
WATCHING THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE TO THE SOUTH CLOSELY AND
INSTABILITY TO SEE IF CHANGES IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTS NEED TO
BE CHANGED...AND TRYING TO BUILD IN BETTER TIMING OVERNIGHT FOR
NEXT WAVE OF RAIN. WINDS STILL STRONG...BUT THOSE SHOULD BE
DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN LONG WAVE ANCHORED NEAR
CENTRAL NEB WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGE
TROUGH AREA MOVING NORTH THROUGH IA/MO. IT APPEARS ONE SMALLER CURL
CAN BE SEEN IN NERN MO HEADING NORTH. THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER
300-500MB QG CONVERGENCE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS BROAD TROUGH SPOKE
ROTATING NORTHWARD...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW-LEVELS NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THE RAIN TODAY NOW LIFTING NORTH. THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO HOLD NEARLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF I-80 AT 19Z.
MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT FROM OMAHA TO CENTRAL MO WAS CLEAR ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CONVECTING NOW...AND OVER THE PAST HOURS THE
OCCLUSION AND TRIPLE POINT ARE RIPPING EAST...NOW NEAR KDSM. THE
STORMS ON THIS OCCLUSION AND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z RAOB PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE MORNING MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...WITH THE
28.12Z GFS/NAM SHOWING A 1-1.25 INCH PLUME FROM NRN IL INTO SERN
MN. KMPX WAS ONLY 0.62 AT 12Z FROM THE RAOB. 1500 FT WINDS OF AREA
88D VAD WINDS ARE STILL IN THE 40-50KT RANGE FROM KMKX-
KMPX...EXPLAINING THE CONTINUED WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH.
AS THE LATER AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THE OCCLUSION PROGRESSES SEWRD TOWARD IL. BY EVENING THE TRIPLE
POINT SHOULD BE WELL INTO IL WITH A BAND OF TSRA ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE OCCLUSION HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE OCCLUSION
BOUNDARY STAYS NEAR I-80 IN THE LATEST HRRR RUNS...WITH THE
ELEVATED TSRA AND PRECIPITATION BAND ROTATING INTO MN/WI. THE
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS 250 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AT 20Z...WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AS WITH DAYS PAST...AS THIS TSRA BAND
APPROACHES NERN IA AND SWRN WI AFTER 5 PM...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE. SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN A TRANSITION TO A
MORE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE BAND
ROTATING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE FORECAST AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. WITH MODELS TOO HIGH ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER...HAVE DISCOUNTED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS SUCH
AS THE 28.12Z. THE BAND WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS TOWARD ROCKFORD IL. THIS WILL PROVIDE A QUICK WARM UP TO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI FOR A
TIME TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME THUNDER THERE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN PEA SIZED HAIL WITH 250 J/KG OF CAPE OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MON APR 28 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE AREA WILL BE RIGHT UNDER THE OCCLUDED DEEP LOW WITH SPOKES OF
ENERGY CONTINUING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THE BIG PICTURE BUT THE DETAILS OF TIMING ON RAIN
CHANCES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AMONG ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD SHOWERY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN WE HAVE
SEEN. FAIRLY SATURATED CONDITIONS AND SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER
AREAS I AM SURE. AT THIS POINT...RAISED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD TO AT LEAST 60 PERCENT WITH MORE DETAIL TO BE ADDED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THOSE DAYS AND CAN IDENTIFY WHERE TO IMPROVE THE
FORECAST. COOL AND CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAINFALL /LESS THAN ONE
TENTH PER 12 HOURS/ FOR MOST EVERYWHERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SPOKING AROUND THE LOW WILL MAKE FOR DETAILS IN THIS
PERIOD DIFFICULT. BY FRIDAY IT WOULD APPEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGEST THE AREA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH CAUSES ITS OWN ISSUES
FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HEIGHTS RISE MORE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ENERGY
CRASHES ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY THEN EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATER SATURDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ACTIVATING ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR A 150 HOUR
FORECAST...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TWO RUNS
OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS THAT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH THE NORMAL WARM FRONTAL LIFT SIGNALS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. WHILE PLACEMENT
IS VARIED...THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ADDS TO CONFIDENCE. BOTTOM LINE
IS SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER DAY STILL BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST 5 DAYS
OUT. TEMPERATURES DONT LOOK TO REBOUND MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT
CLOUDS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
CLOSED...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP KRST/KLSE UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS...WITH BOUTS OF MVFR VSBYS DURING -SHRA/RA. TIMING THE
PROBABLE WET AND DRY PERIODS IS CHALLENGING...AND HAVE BEEN LEANING
ON -SHRA OR VCSH WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION TO SHOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS
DO FAVOR KEEPING KRST IN RAIN MORE OFTEN THEN NOT THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE...WHILE KLSE COULD SPEND MORE TIME IN A DRIER REGION.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG TONIGHT...BUT AS THE LOW INCHES NORTHWARD
TUE...EXPECT SOME SLACKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A
REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS. DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
TUE...THEN SHIFTING NORTHWEST LATE TUE NIGHT. LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN
AT KLSE WITH AROUND 50 KTS AT 2 KFT. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN
FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AFTER RECEIVING LESS RAIN OVERNIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...THE RIVER
SITUATION SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BEHAVE FOR THIS STORM. WE ARE EXPECTING
ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS
WHICH WILL MEAN BANKFULL RIVER RISES FOR MOST RIVERS...AND A LOW FLOODING
THREAT. THE KICKAPOO MAY BE THE CLOSEST RIVER TO FLOODING.
MAYBE THE MAIN STORY IS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THAT WILL SWALLOW
ALL THE INCOMING TRIBUTARY WATER AND CONTINUE TO RISE ALL NEXT
WEEK. FROM WINONA MN SOUTH...IT APPEARS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
BE APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD LEVELS BY LATER THIS WEEK...WITH FLOODING
LIKELY FURTHER NORTH. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WINONA AND SOUTH FLOODING THREAT.
AFTER TONIGHT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AS THE
GULF MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED EAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ041-053-054-061.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ088-096.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
IAZ011-030.
&&
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...HAVE
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND ARE GENERALLY STILL IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPREADS WESTWARD...ALONG WITH SOME ADIABATIC
COOLING FROM LIFTING ACROSS EAST FACING TERRAIN.
ALSO...SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES...AND THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AREAS OF THE HELDERBERGS AND
SE CATSKILLS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH NOON...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A DOWNSLOPING E/SE
FLOW MAY HELP TO OCCASIONALLY BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NOONTIME...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND
PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
SOME BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN AND WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING IS POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RUC 13/HRRR
AND HI-RES WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING...WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 1-3 PM...INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND
4 PM...ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION/SE ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN 4-6 PM...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 6-8 PM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS DUE TO WET
BULB/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...EXCEPT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE 300 K
SFC...WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A DRY WEDGE AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL ADVECTS
WESTWARD...WHILE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THIS LAYER. GUSTY E/SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED-THU MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...AS WELL AS THE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED INTO WED NT...RESULTING IN THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE
RAIN MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WED AM...BEFORE SEVERAL
SURGES OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP LATE WED AFTN INTO WED
NT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0
TO -2 C RANGE WED NT FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. BY EARLY THU...THE BEST AXIS OF FORCING AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT...AND PERHAPS SW MA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL LINE UP...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ANY POTENTIAL AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THIS AXIS
COULD SET UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT DEEPER CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE DEVELOPING
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NJ OR NYC/LI COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FURTHER N INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED SHOULD BE QUITE COOL GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...WITH
MAXES GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS WILL
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY FROM THESE MAX TEMPS EARLY WED
NT...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN LATE WED NT.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH. IF THIS POTENTIAL
INCREASES FURTHER...THEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
THU AFTN-THU NT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THU NT. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
REACH 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE IF SOME BREAKS OF
SUN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THU NT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE FA WITH SEVERAL VORT
MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ACRS THE SE
PTN OF THE FA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE ACRS THE
WRN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST. SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS SATURDAY ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE AND CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S ONCE AGAIN..
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEIR WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN POPS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC
015-035 WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN HOURS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTN
OR EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH KALB/KGFL...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR FOR THE TAF SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU/KPSF MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS INCREASE. MOST TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BY LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR
KPSF WHICH WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATE AT NIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 08Z.
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUESDAY...AND BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE TO
TH EAST LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS WILL BE NW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND 40-50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 75-90
PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH A WETTING RAINFALL DEVELOPING. THE RH WILL
FALL INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT TO 10-20 MPH...THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 15-30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO NW CT...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.THE RAIN
COULD COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS
1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BACK RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DURING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...SOME OF
THE RIVER POINTS IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WOULD REACH ACTION STAGE
WITH CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
BASIN AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND STEVENSON DAM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECASTED
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD FUTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
615 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...HAVE
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND ARE GENERALLY STILL IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SPREADS WESTWARD...ALONG WITH SOME ADIABATIC
COOLING FROM LIFTING ACROSS EAST FACING TERRAIN.
THROUGH THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A DOWNSLOPING E/SE
FLOW MAY HELP TO OCCASIONALLY BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NOONTIME...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AND
PERHAPS UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
SOME BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN AND WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING IS POSSIBLE.
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RUC 13/HRRR
AND HI-RES WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING...WHICH BRINGS RAIN INTO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 1-3 PM...INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY E
OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND WESTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND
4 PM...ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION/SE ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND EASTERN LITCHFIELD CO BETWEEN 4-6 PM...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 6-8 PM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS DUE TO WET
BULB/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...EXCEPT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE 300 K
SFC...WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SW ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AS A DRY WEDGE AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL ADVECTS
WESTWARD...WHILE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THIS LAYER. GUSTY E/SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE TACONICS...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WED-THU MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING...AS WELL AS THE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WED INTO WED NT...RESULTING IN THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE
RAIN MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WED AM...BEFORE SEVERAL
SURGES OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP LATE WED AFTN INTO WED
NT. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 0
TO -2 C RANGE WED NT FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. BY EARLY THU...THE BEST AXIS OF FORCING AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT...AND PERHAPS SW MA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE
OCCURRING. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL LINE UP...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ANY POTENTIAL AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THIS AXIS
COULD SET UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT DEEPER CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE DEVELOPING
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NJ OR NYC/LI COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FURTHER N INTO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPS...WED SHOULD BE QUITE COOL GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...WITH
MAXES GENERALLY ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPS WILL
HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY FROM THESE MAX TEMPS EARLY WED
NT...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING AGAIN LATE WED NT.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES/TACONICS/LITCHFIELD HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST OVER 45 MPH. IF THIS POTENTIAL
INCREASES FURTHER...THEN WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
THU AFTN-THU NT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THU AFTN. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THU NT. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD
REACH 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE IF SOME BREAKS OF
SUN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THU NT MINS TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE FA WITH SEVERAL VORT
MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TO MID 60S ACRS THE SE
PTN OF THE FA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE ACRS THE
WRN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST. SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS SATURDAY ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE AND CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S ONCE AGAIN..
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEIR WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN POPS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC
015-035 WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN HOURS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTN
OR EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH KALB/KGFL...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR FOR THE TAF SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU/KPSF MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS INCREASE. MOST TAF SITES CAN EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BY LATE EVENING WITH SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR
KPSF WHICH WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATE AT NIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 08Z.
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUESDAY...AND BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE TO
TH EAST LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS WILL BE NW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT...AND 40-50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 75-90
PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH A WETTING RAINFALL DEVELOPING. THE RH WILL
FALL INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE WED AFTERNOON.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH TODAY...WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT TO 10-20 MPH...THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 15-30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO NW CT...
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.THE RAIN
COULD COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS
1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BACK RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DURING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...SOME OF
THE RIVER POINTS IN THE HOUSATONIC BASIN WOULD REACH ACTION STAGE
WITH CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
BASIN AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND STEVENSON DAM.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH
A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECASTED
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER...SHOULD FUTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS AXIS
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS/11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1122 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKING TO BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
.UPDATE...
MADE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO POP AND WEATHER TRENDS TODAY AS
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND OBS TRENDS SUGGEST LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL
AFTER ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAK IN ACTION. OF
THE SUITE OF HI-RES SOLUTIONS...THE RUC HAS VERIFIED THE BEST
INITIALLY AND TRIGGERS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER WHICH SEEMS LEGIT GIVEN AN AREA OF SOLAR SHELTERING
OCCURRING WITH LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD
MAKE THERE WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR 23/00Z.
STILL DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
OF IT PROPAGATING INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. ALSO LATEST HPC QPF LOOKS
REASONABLE SO HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID WEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS DIFFICULT...AND
THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT POPS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE FRONT
MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST GA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE
IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT..ENDING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE DIFFICULTY THEN BECOMES THE SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES THRU ABOUT
12Z SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL GA AS SOME LESSER MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
AFTER 12Z SAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM THEN BACK TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPACTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH GA TO 1 TO 2
INCHES CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD MINOR AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN NORTH GA IN
URBAN AREAS AND IN ROLLING HILLS OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAINS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. MOST STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL NORTH GA
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND HAVE REMOVED MOST
COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH. EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT NOT SEVERE. SHOULD BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE THEN. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
VFR BUT EXPECT MVFR OR IFR WITH RAIN. WINDS WILL VARY AROUND 180
TODAY 10 TO 15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT ESPECIALLY IN STORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 79 55 73 / 80 90 60 10
ATLANTA 66 75 54 70 / 80 90 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 61 70 49 66 / 90 90 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 64 74 50 70 / 90 90 20 10
COLUMBUS 67 78 57 73 / 70 90 40 10
GAINESVILLE 65 73 53 69 / 90 90 20 10
MACON 69 81 58 74 / 60 80 60 30
ROME 64 74 50 69 / 90 80 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 75 53 71 / 80 90 20 10
VIDALIA 69 83 63 75 / 50 60 70 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM...BDL
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1156 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NEAR TERM TRAVEL HAZARDS...
BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND WEBCAMS CONFIRMING THAT
SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN /~1500
FT/ WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
TRAVEL HAZARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE IMPACTS WILL BE
COMPLETELY TIED TO PRECIPITATION RATES...AND WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
RETURNS ALREADY PULLING NORTH THROUGH MENOMINEE COUNTY...THIS
PROVIDED A PRETTY SHORT WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL 2-4"
IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO
DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...
BASED ON MORNING SPOTTER REPORTS AND AREA WEBCAMS...HAVE BOOSTED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AS PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING AS A BURST OF
SNOW FOR AREAS FROM MARQUETTE SOUTH AND WEST. DUAL POL VARIABLES
FROM THE KMQT-88D SUGGEST A GROWING SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER AT
MQT...AND DO EXPECT A PRETTY STEADY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS CHANGEOVER NOT REACHING
AREAS FROM ONTONAGON TO IRONWOOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BY WHICH
TIME THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION.
ISSUED A SPS TO HANDLE QUICK BURST OF SNOW...AND MAY DO SO ONCE
MORE FOR WESTERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES HERE. DID SLOW
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL JUST A TAD BASED ON MORNING RADAR
EVOLUTION...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN LIFR AS RAIN MOVES
IN FM THE SE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT KIWD TODAY AN COULD RESTRICT VSBYS TO IFR.
UPSLOPE FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS RAIN AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS MOVE OVER COLDER LAKE SUPERIOR. ENE WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30
KNOTS AT KCMX THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1001 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATON ARRIVES...
BASED ON MORNING SPOTTER REPORTS AND AREA WEBCAMS...HAVE BOOSTED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AS PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING AS A BURST OF
SNOW FOR AREAS FROM MARQUETTE SOUTH AND WEST. DUAL POL VARIABLES
FROM THE KMQT-88D SUGGEST A GROWING SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER AT
MQT...AND DO EXPECT A PRETTY STEADY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS CHANGEOVER NOT REACHING
AREAS FROM ONTONAGON TO IRONWOOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BY WHICH
TIME THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION.
ISSUED A SPS TO HANDLE QUICK BURST OF SNOW...AND MAY DO SO ONCE
MORE FOR WESTERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES HERE. DID SLOW
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL JUST A TAD BASED ON MORNING RADAR
EVOLUTION...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN LIFR AS RAIN MOVES
IN FM THE SE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT KIWD TODAY AN COULD RESTRICT VSBYS TO IFR.
UPSLOPE FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS RAIN AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS MOVE OVER COLDER LAKE SUPERIOR. ENE WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30
KNOTS AT KCMX THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
TEMPS IF MODELS VERIFY WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN LIFR AS RAIN MOVES
IN FM THE SE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT KIWD TODAY AN COULD RESTRICT VSBYS TO IFR.
UPSLOPE FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS RAIN AND WARMER
DEWPOINTS MOVE OVER COLDER LAKE SUPERIOR. ENE WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30
KNOTS AT KCMX THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO SAT AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1053 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM
OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1053 AM EDT...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH E-SE FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN ALSO DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE. CURRENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAIN IS STARTING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
SOUTHERN TIER WEST OF BGM IN NEW YORK...AND JUST ABOUT ENTERING
NORTHEAST PA ACROSS BRADFORD/LUZERNE COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
LIGHT TODAY...AS LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE TIME FOR COMPLETE SATURATION
TO OCCUR. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
DEVELOPING RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONE...AS COOLING WILL TAKE
PLACE ONCE RAIN COMMENCES. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO
TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. MAX GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER.
TOWARDS THIS EVENING...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES...AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LIFT
MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/LIFT IS EXPECTED TO RE-
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY. THE STEADIEST
PRECIP WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
WRAPS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD APPEARS TO BE EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN 60-70 KNOT JET BETWEEN 900-850MB RIPS UP
THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAIN (WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE).
THIS SAME JET COULD CAUSE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS, AND WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING THE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT, THE STRENGTH OF
THE JET BELOW 850MB MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY WIND GUSTS IN
SE FLOW PER LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH ALSO
INDICATES THESE EVENTS ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG
CYCLONES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AND SHARPER 500H TROFS THAN WE ARE
FORECASTING.
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN FA, AND 2.00 TO 2.70 INCHES OVER NERN PA.
THIS SOAKING RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED GIVEN THE RECENT DRY SPELL.
THE QPF WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES, BUT THE DURATION MAY BE
STRETCHED OUT ENOUGH TO AVOID SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON
WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE, AS WE STILL HAVE 24 TO 30 HOURS BEFORE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE, AND TIME TO ASSESS THE RIVER
RESPONSE. ALSO...THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE EVENT MAY PRODUCE LESS
QPF THAN ANTICIPATED AS THE EASTWARD RAIN EXTENT IS RUNNING BEHIND
THE PROGS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER REGION WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LIFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IT MAY BRIEFLY OPEN UP ONLY TO
RETROGRADE FARTHER WEST BY GETTING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN PLAINS. WAVES WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW...INCLUDING
A LARGER JOINT SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING THROUGH
SATURDAY...THUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THEN. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
KNOCK DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THAT WAVE...CORE OF COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...SO THOUGH A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE AT TIMES...OVERALL NOT FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY. WE WILL STILL HAVE
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS SMALLER WAVES AND
THEN A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW ITSELF BREAK OFF AND HEAD TOWARDS OUR
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LRG CLSD LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EWRD FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND
PUSH RAIN INTO THE REGION. HIPRES RDGG DOWN THE EST CST WILL KEEP
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDS THRU AT LEAST MID MRNG BEFORE THE RAIN
BEGINS. THEN...SLOWLY LWRG CONDS TO MVFR LATE IN THE AFTN THRU THE
END OF THE PD DUE TO VSBYS AND LWR CIGS. HILLTOP STATIONS ITH AND
BGM COULD SEE OCNL IFR CIGS AFT 06Z. TGT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI
TO THE EAST AND THE MIDWEST LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SE WINDS TODAY
AND CNTG THRU THE TAF PD.
OUTLOOK...
WED AND THU...MVFR AND MAYBE IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
FRI/SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST HAS PUSHED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RUC RH PROFILES.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. BROAD DEEP- LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND MIDWEST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY HAVE AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY
TODAY BEFORE THE WET WEATHER ARRIVES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL RAIN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SUNSHINE WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL
A BIT COOL FOR LATE APRIL DUE MARINE MODIFIED AIR WORKING IN ON
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE
INFLUENCE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA
INTO THE SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EDT TUESDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...700-500MB
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MORNING WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO VERMONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND WE
WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT STILL
SHAPING UP TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING OCCLUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY SPREAD
STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BEST FORCING AND
LIFT WILL OCCUR. THIS COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALL SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AFFECTING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY AS OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKES ITS EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WHILE TRAILING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH POPS
PREFERRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS MILDER WITH HIGHS AROUND
60. A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT
EXPECTED TILL LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...LOOKING AT 1.25-1.5" ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE AMOUNTS LOWER DUE SOME SHADOWING.
HYDROLOGICALLY...RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR BASE LEVELS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AUSABLE FORKS AND OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND
IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS CURRENT EXPECATATIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST...ALL RIVERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS THE REGION WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS IN-BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST AND WEST TODAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO KRUT/KMPV EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS ALL SITES BEING VFR UNDER MID CLOUDS BY MID-DAY AS
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL WITH ANY SUNSHINE INCREASING MIXING AND EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS
OF 20-30KTS ACROSS THE REGION. LATE TODAY MID CLOUDS THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR THROUGH 12Z EXCEPT FOR
KRUT AND KMPV WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW STRATUS LAYER
HAS MOVED INLAND TO EAST OF HEBBRONVILLE TO NORTHWEST OF BEEVILLE.
NON-UNIFORM CATEGORIES EXIST WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER...SOME AREAS
ALONG THE COAST THEN UP TO VICTORIA HAVE LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VSBYS. WHILE AREAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD LAYER FROM ALICE
TO BEEVILLE HAVE VLIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD LAYER WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. WINDS WILL BE TURNING
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN 14-15Z. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO THE NORTH BY 18Z WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MARINE LAYER WITH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY 15Z WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IN LATER THIS MORNING. HIGHER NORTH WINDS BEHIND FRONT SINCE IT
IS HARD TO SAY COLD FRONT WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 90S TODAY. WENT WITH HRRR MODEL DEPICTING MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH AREA FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S. READINGS WILL FINALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WIDESPREAD FOG HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS MIXED WITH SMOKE
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND VISIBILITIES ARE VERY
POOR OVER THE WATERS. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER AND KEPT
EXPIRATION TIME AT 14Z. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH
VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVING BEFORE MAIN FRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVES
INTO THE WATERS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SCEC LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE LOW END SCA OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY)...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT
WILL EXIST OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMUM
RH LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LVL LOW
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE
TO LOW LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY...THOUGH PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME BEGINS WORKING INTO THE UPPER LVLS DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION MIDWEEK. BY FRIDAY UPPER LVL LOW FINALLY OPENS AND TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH TO THE EAST. RIDGING WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 57 83 56 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 52 80 50 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 97 60 87 58 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 94 55 84 53 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 88 59 80 59 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 93 52 85 52 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 95 55 84 55 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 62 79 63 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
644 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IA. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WI THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH WED
AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND LOW. HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN NOW MOVING
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. DRY AIR VERY PRESENT ON APX
EVENING SOUNDING BEING ADVECTED IN OVER NORTHERN WI ON STRONG EAST
WINDS...LIMITING PCPN AMOUNTS SO FAR. THIS DRY AIR VERY EVIDENT
OVER FAR NORTH WHERE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 20S. AS PCPN MOVES IN
OVER NORTH SEEING SNOW/SLEET SHOWING UP...THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
STILL MILD SO AM NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS POINT TO
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK WAA BRINGS 850
TEMP UP TO +2 OVER VILAS COUNTY BY TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NORTH
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK OFF...BECOMING LIGHT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WED. MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. WILL ADD TO MARINE
ZONES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFT DEBATE LAND ZONES.
BEST MOISTURE/PW`S OVER 1 INCH NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF STATE...WILL
DROP ISSUING ESF WITH LESSER QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNATURE EVENT) WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEM COULD BRING CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE QPF
FORECAST GRID. UNFORTUNATELY...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHERE
THIS TYPE OF EVENT WOULD FORM. EVEN IF A SHARS EVENT DOES DEVELOP...IT
WOULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN WHAT IS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND COULD IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN
06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY (MAYBE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST).
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...FORCING ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS
POOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOOKED AT THUNDER PROSPECTS...DID NOT SUPPORT ADDING
THUNDER AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WARRANTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BANDS OF SHOWERS NORTH OVER THE STATE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE. CIGS WILL
VARY FROM IVFR TO MVFR...LOWERING TO IFR AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE STATE TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BACK OFF AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......RE
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
657 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2014
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF FLASH AND RIVERINE FLOODING
EXPECTED AS WELL...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]... During the late afternoon our CWA
experienced a lull with mostly stratiform precipitation over land
areas and scattered thunderstorms well offshore. However by 6 PM
EDT...radar... satellite and upstream obs indicated next round of
strong to possible severe convection entering our Wrn most
counties in the form of a potent MCS tracking EWD across Wrn FL
Panhandle. All this assocd with increasing moisture flux and high
cape advecting newd ahead of mid-south cold front. Satellite water
vapor shows increasingly tall Tcu advecting newd under strong
moisture flux into srn edge of MCS aiding in cell mergers and
convergence. This reflected in increasingly impressive lighting
plots. Latest HRRR implies that Panhandle storms could become
quite organized later this eve. A Severe tstm warning was just
issued for these storms moving Ewd around 25 mph just before
entering Walton County.
SPENES estimates 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates with this system.
With redevelopment expected to occur on back edge of slow moving MCS
and higher moisture flux/cape advancing Ewd...additional heavy rains
are expected through this evening across especially FL Panhandle and
adjacent SE AL/SW GA and will be closely monitored for flooding
concerns in addition to severe weather. Weak steering flow and
SWLY steering flow would favor training of incoming cells so isold
areas could expect 3-5 inches which on top of already saturated
grounds would aggravate flooding concerns. For now flash flood
watch will remain in place through Wednesday evening for all but
the Valdosta region and the SE Big Bend.
&&
.Marine...
Strong and gusty onshore winds over the Panhandle waters
necessitated the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory thru sunrise
as the pressure gradient tightens around an approaching cold front
moving from west to east. Exercise caution level winds are
expected for the remaining waters. After the cold front passes on
Wednesday, offshore winds will prevail through the weekend until
high pressure builds in the Gulf on Sunday switching our
prevailing winds out of the east.
&&
.Prev Discussion [319 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The closed mid-upper level low over the Upper Mississippi River
Valley will finally eject to the northeast and across the Great
Lakes region on Thursday. Even so, the local area will remain
under deep southwest flow. The associated surface cold front will
move into our western zones Wednesday and slowly push east our FA
by Thursday night. An ongoing severe weather threat will mark the
beginning of the period as a squall continues to advance from west
to east. The current thinking as that the leading edge of strong
to severe convection will be entering our western GA zones and the
western Florida Big Bend. Forecast CAPE values are over 2000 J/JG
and local CAM models continue to generate very high updraft
helicity and updraft velocity values, so an isolated strong
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. There will be an accompanying
flash flooding threat which is detailed below in the hydrology
section. Rain chances will continue until the frontal passage late
Thursday or Thursday night but the severe threat should end after
Wednesday.
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The stubborn surface low that has been stuck over the CONUS for
the past few days finally begins to lift into eastern Canada by
Friday. The associated trailing cold front will finally push
through our area for good bringing with it the chance for showers
on Friday afternoon. Behind the front ridging will settle in
place. Rain chances will be minimal and southerly flow at the end
of the period will bring sticky conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 60.
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] Rain and thunderstorms will come to an
end this evening from west to east. Expect IFR/LIFR CIGS and VI`S
to develop due to plentiful boundary layer moisture and frontal
forcing. Winds will increase again tomorrow morning out of the
south and additional thunderstorms will impact DHN and ABY,
bringing potentially gusty winds and low CIGS/VI`S.
.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals this morning are already in the 1 to 3 inch range
across the region. Rain will continue this afternoon throughout
most of the region. Another 1 to 3 inches is expected this
afternoon, particularly in the eastern half of the CWA. Another
round of rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
tomorrow. This will bring an additional 2 to 5 inches of rainfall
with isolated higher amounts possible. Flash flooding will be
possible tomorrow.
Flooding continues on the Suwannee River in the eastern Big Bend,
but most other rivers have receded. Rainfall totals will be
sufficient to bring many rivers into minor flood stage once again.
There is uncertainty about how much the rivers will rise, since most
of the rain hasn`t fallen yet.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHAPS page (below).
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 70 84 67 80 59 / 40 60 50 50 50
Panama City 72 79 63 76 58 / 70 70 40 50 50
Dothan 70 78 59 76 53 / 80 70 40 40 30
Albany 70 81 63 77 55 / 60 70 60 40 30
Valdosta 69 87 67 80 57 / 30 50 50 50 50
Cross City 70 86 69 82 62 / 20 40 30 50 60
Apalachicola 73 79 66 75 58 / 40 60 40 50 60
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland
Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
South Walton-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-
Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/WALSH
AVIATION...BARRY/WALSH
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
412 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LI/S
WERE -4 TO -7. RADAR AT 19Z NOT SHOWING ANY SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID LEVEL CAP AND TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
LACKING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST
WAS LIMITING THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWED LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RAP MODEL.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -6 TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH SHEAR. EXPECT H85 WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE NORTH PART IF THE WEDGE FRONT PERSISTS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LACK OF SHORT WAVE TRIGGER.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WILL LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCE
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NEAR STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT MAY SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT...SO CHANCE POPS
AND INCREASING TO THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE
A 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT JUST OFF
THE COAST. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOVE 0 BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING JUST
TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO DOMINATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATE POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT EARLY...AND LESS THAN 20
PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION WHICH WILL ACT TO
LIMIT CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH OF THE TAF SITES CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT EXPECT
SHOWERS TO MOVE IN WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY
IFR...DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AROUND 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ANTICIPATED NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION. THE DAYTIME
PERIOD HAS BEEN LARGELY A LULL IN ACTIVITY DUE TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA AND CAPPING FROM LINGERING
MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE THAT HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MIX OUT. OUT OF
THE SUITE OF HI-RES SOLUTIONS...THE RUC...LOCAL WRF...AND HRRR HAVE
BEEN TRENDING THE BEST WITH PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENT AND LACK THEREOF SO
HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THEM WITH OVERNIGHT POPS AND GREATEST
STORM POTENTIAL. THESE MODELS AGREE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER BY 20-21Z...WHICH SEEMS LEGIT GIVEN
AN OBSERVED MESO-LOW TRACKING ALONG THE SFC FRONT IN SOUTHERN MS AND
ALREADY SEEING SOME ENHANCED CU FIELD DEVELOPING. THE EVOLUTION OF
DEVELOPMENT BRINGS CELLS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT THEN SPREADING NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE MAIN THREATS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE
LOOKING TO BE NEAR 1000 J/KG...0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 150
M2/S2...0-1KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS...AND 0-6KM BULK IN THE 50-60
KT ZONE FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE 01Z-07Z PERIOD ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH INCREASING SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN STP VALUES APPROACHING
2. SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUPPORTS EMBEDDED OR SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE IN THE 00Z-09Z PERIOD...THEN BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL AS A MORE LINEAR SWATH SETS UP. THIS AGREES WITH CONSENSUS
AMONG THE MODELS AS TRAINING CELLS STALLING ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR
IN THE MORNING HOURS IS POSSIBLE. THERE COULD THEREFORE BE AN
INCREASED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS ON QPF WITH THE EVENT.
THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE THAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
WHILE THE GREATEST POPS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ATTM.
BAKER
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT..ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. THE DIFFICULTY THEN BECOMES THE SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER MAINLY SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS SOME
LESSER MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. AFTER 12Z SAT THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM THEN BACK TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM.
01
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HPC QPF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM TRENDS IN
THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD 2 INCHES AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH TRAINING CELLS ALONG AND NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BAKER
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCE FROM WEST. EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP NEAR 4 KFT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TSRA POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SITES ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING IN THE 01Z-05Z PERIOD AND COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. PRECIP AXIS MAY LINGER
ACROSS KATL AND NEARBY SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPMENT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS KMCN TONIGHT. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW 12-15 KTS
GUSTING 18-22 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT PRECIP.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 78 55 74 / 100 80 50 20
ATLANTA 65 75 53 71 / 100 60 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 61 70 50 67 / 100 70 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 66 76 49 71 / 100 60 10 10
COLUMBUS 68 80 57 74 / 60 60 40 20
GAINESVILLE 64 75 53 70 / 100 70 30 10
MACON 68 82 58 75 / 40 70 60 30
ROME 65 76 48 70 / 90 60 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 65 76 51 72 / 100 60 20 20
VIDALIA 70 86 67 78 / 30 60 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
344 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LI/S
WERE -4 TO -7. RADAR AT 19Z NOT SHOWING ANY SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID LEVEL CAP AND TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION
LACKING. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST
WAS LIMITING THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWED LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
RAP MODEL.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -6 TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH SHEAR. EXPECT H85 WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE NORTH PART IF THE WEDGE FRONT PERSISTS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LACK OF SHORT WAVE TRIGGER.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WILL LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCE
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NEAR STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT MAY SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT...SO CHANCE POPS
AND INCREASING TO THE EAST TOWARD MORNING.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE
A 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT JUST OFF
THE COAST. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOVE 0 BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING JUST
TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO DOMINATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATE POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT EARLY...AND LESS THAN 20
PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION LIMITING CONVECTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE HEATING AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH THE CLOUDS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
REMAINED WITH VCTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
CLOUD BASES CONTINUING TO LOWER MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
232 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE LI/S
WERE -4 TO -7. SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED MAINLY BECAUSE OF A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL
TO THE WEST. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF
COAST WAS LIMITING THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR SHOWED LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -6 TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED HIGH SHEAR. EXPECT H85 WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE NORTH PART IF THE WEDGE FRONT PERSISTS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE
A 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT JUST OFF
THE COAST. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S ABOVE 0 BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING JUST
TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO DOMINATE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN INDICATE POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT EARLY...AND LESS THAN 20
PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION LIMITING CONVECTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE HEATING AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH THE CLOUDS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE
REMAINED WITH VCTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
CLOUD BASES CONTINUING TO LOWER MVFR...POSSIBLE IFR...DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014/
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKING TO BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
.UPDATE...
MADE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO POP AND WEATHER TRENDS TODAY AS
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND OBS TRENDS SUGGEST LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL
AFTER ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAK IN ACTION. OF
THE SUITE OF HI-RES SOLUTIONS...THE RUC HAS VERIFIED THE BEST
INITIALLY AND TRIGGERS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER WHICH SEEMS LEGIT GIVEN AN AREA OF SOLAR SHELTERING
OCCURRING WITH LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD
MAKE THERE WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR 23/00Z.
STILL DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS WORKING INTO NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
OF IT PROPAGATING INTO EAST CENTRAL GA. ALSO LATEST HPC QPF LOOKS
REASONABLE SO HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID WEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS DIFFICULT...AND
THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT
CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT POPS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE FRONT
MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST GA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE
IN POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES OFF THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT..ENDING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE DIFFICULTY THEN BECOMES THE SW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES THRU ABOUT
12Z SAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL GA AS SOME LESSER MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW.
AFTER 12Z SAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM THEN BACK TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM.
BDL
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPACTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN NORTH GA TO 1 TO 2
INCHES CENTRAL GA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD MINOR AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN NORTH GA IN
URBAN AREAS AND IN ROLLING HILLS OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAINS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. MOST STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL NORTH GA
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL GA.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCE FROM WEST. EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP NEAR 4 KFT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TSRA POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SITES ON THE
INCREASE THIS EVENING IN THE 01Z-05Z PERIOD AND COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. PRECIP AXIS MAY LINGER
ACROSS KATL AND NEARBY SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. DEVELOPMENT MAY STRUGGLE TO GET AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS KMCN TONIGHT. WINDS STAYING MAINLY SW 12-15 KTS
GUSTING 18-22 KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT PRECIP.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 66 79 55 / 40 80 90 60
ATLANTA 75 66 75 54 / 50 80 90 20
BLAIRSVILLE 71 61 70 49 / 70 90 90 20
CARTERSVILLE 76 64 74 50 / 60 90 90 20
COLUMBUS 78 67 78 57 / 40 70 90 40
GAINESVILLE 74 65 73 53 / 40 90 90 20
MACON 77 69 81 58 / 80 60 80 60
ROME 79 64 74 50 / 70 90 80 20
PEACHTREE CITY 77 67 75 53 / 40 80 90 20
VIDALIA 82 69 83 63 / 50 50 60 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41/BAKER
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR NEMESIS OF A BROAD STACKED LOW CENTERED
OVER EASTERN IOWA. EAST KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM/S SOUPY WARM
SECTOR AS DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING TO COME BACK UP FROM THE MIDDAY
DROPOFF WITH SOME NOW TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST. EXPECT THESE
TO CONTINUE TO COME UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S BOUNDARY AND
ITS ILL-FATED ATTEMPT TO PULL AWAYS FROM THIS PART OF THE STATE. THIS
BONUS CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE MAIN THREAT LIKELY ARRIVES FOR EAST
KENTUCKY CLOSER TOWARD SUNSET AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE
BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OR SO.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE BROAD CUT
OFF LOW SLOWLY TUMBLING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS PROCESS WILL INVOLVE A COUPLE OF LINGERING SHORTWAVES
RIDING THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE LOW...RUNNING ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST
OF THESE MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHILE ANOTHER PASSES
BY LATER WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST
WHILE LEANING TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WHILE LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SHOULD BE SOME DISCREET CELLS EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.
HAVE TIMED THESE THROUGH THE CWA MAINLY IN THE EVENING EXPECTING MORE
STABLE AIR TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM THE EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WHERE ANY STORMS TRAIN.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE FFG IS THE LOWEST THERE OWING TO THE TWO PLUS
INCHES THAT FELL THERE LAST NIGHT. THERE REMAINS JUST TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PART OF THE EAST
KENTUCKY WITH THE GFS KEEPING ITS HEAVIER BAND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE NAM PLACING ITS OWN TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER FFG AREAS. WILL
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH THE EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE SHORTER FUSE
WATCH DEPENDING HOW THE STORMS AND ANY TRAINING DEVELOPS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH NOON
IN THE WEST UNTIL THE LIS GO STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SFC WINDS GO WEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH. DID DROP
THE THUNDER FURTHER EAST WITH TIME. CARRIED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RATHER
PALTRY POST COLD FRONT.
USED THE CONSSHORT...AND THE BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE CONSALL PRELOADED THEREAFTER.
MADE ONLY SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NUMBERS MAINLY TO CAPTURE THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FORECAST...CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY. AFTER
THIS THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY AS A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH ANY PASSING SHORT WAVES...AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THIS WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED MODEL AND INHERITED FORECAST
APPROACH FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WHICH
YIELDS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN
LATER FORECASTS AS IT APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING
TO A WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z TO 01Z AND THEN FURTHER SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS ALLOWING FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST INCREASING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 25
KNOTS. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS CIGS AND VIS IMPROVE...BUT SHOWERS REMAIN
AROUND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CU HAS DEVELOPED WHERE
THE CIRRUS THINNED. TO THE WEST...THOUGH...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO
PARTLY SUNNY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. THIS WILL BE THE FUEL TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR STILL KEEPS THE CONVECTION
OUT OF HERE THROUGH 00Z...BUT ALREADY A FEW PIN PRICK SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES ARE POPPING UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY INDICATING THAT
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING REACHED. STILL EXPECT THE STRONGER
STORMS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET...STARTING TO THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT QUITE A EXTREME AS THEY WERE EARLIER...BUT STILL
INDICATE DECENT KEY INDICES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS AND
SHIPPED THEM TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AND MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF
EAST KENTUCKY. THE LATEST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE JUST ABOUT EXITED FAR EAST KENTUCKY...THOUGH THE LATEST HRRR
DOES HOLD THEM IN THE FAR EAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT
10 AM VARY FRO THE LOW 60S WITH THE RAIN IN THE FAR EAST TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH. OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE IS THE FADING
OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE LAST CONVECTIVE WAVE NOW
EXITING. THESE ARE DISSOLVING FAST OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA...JUSTIFYING OUR CONCERN FOR WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER INSTABILITY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE BENEATH THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE WEATHER A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD FAVOR FORMING LINES AND BOWS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR TORNADO
OCCURRENCES. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE THOUGHTS...
ALLOWING STORMS TO REDEVELOP JUST BEFORE 00Z IN THE WEST...A BLENDING
OF THE 12Z NAM AND THE HRRR...AND GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. DO EXPECT THE
INSTABILITY TO BE WORKED OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO FOLLOW MORE
SUBDUED. DID ALSO UPDATE THE T AND TD GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT WITH A ZONE AND
SPS TOUCH UP TO FOLLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
ALSO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AND ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ADDRESS THIS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL LOOKING GOOD TO GO AND WILL LET THE ZFP
RIDE A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ASPECT IS APPARENT WITH THIS
TREND...THE FIRST SIGNS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR. WILL
STRESS THIS TO THE DAY SHIFT AS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE MAINLY SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT OUT TO THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS MAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LL JET MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY...IN FACT...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THE SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ALL ALONG I-75. SOME
SMALL FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY ARISE HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TN. SO HAVE
ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAMS COVERING THE ROCKCASTLE...
PULASKI...AND WAYNE COUNTY AREAS.
SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THIS WEAKENED MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT
AND THERE STANDS THE CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN CWA.
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CONTINUED
MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.
THIS WILL AT LEAST HINDER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE TODAY.
WITH ALL THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...KNOCKED
DOWN HIGH TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH MOS BEING A IN
THE MID TO LOW 70S AND WENT ABOVE MOS A BIT TO THE UPPER 70S. KEEP IN
MIND THAT IF...COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR
AND SOME CLEARING ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 80S...AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER DAY MAY ENSUE BY THIS EVENING IN EARNEST.
GETTING INTO THIS EVENING...THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT AND SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
CONVERGES OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS CONVECTION AND RENEWED SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BEGIN HERE AGAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL TN...AND NORTHERN MS/AL. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE NORTH AS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BEGINS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KY AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS...WILL
REINTRODUCE LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS INTO THE WEST BY 00Z TONIGHT.
THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE 00Z TO
06Z TONIGHT BEFORE THE GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MOVES EAST. WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE SHOWERS COMING
TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY
EXITS EAST KENTUCKY. THOUGH...THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
UPPER LOW STALLED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY SO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAY BECOME A DIURNALLY DRIVEN MECHANISM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG POLAR
VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVER OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A STRONG BLOCKING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE
AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE POLAR VORTEX MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WHERE IT BELONGS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH CENTER WILL
BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE HARD PART OF THIS FORECAST IS TO TRY TO TIME ANY SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GENERATE ANY
MEASURABLE SHOWERS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE AND STRONG LOW RECEDE AND ALLOW A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MODEL ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE RESIDUAL
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY ACROSS
THE GULF COAST DURING THE PERIOD. USED TO MODEL BLEND BUT THEN
NUDGED THE FORECAST 25 PERCENT TOWARD THE 00 GMT ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z TO 01Z AND THEN FURTHER SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS ALLOWING FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST INCREASING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 25
KNOTS. THEY SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS CIGS AND VIS IMPROVE...BUT SHOWERS REMAIN
AROUND.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NEAR TERM TRAVEL HAZARDS...
BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND WEBCAMS CONFIRMING THAT
SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN /~1500
FT/ WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
TRAVEL HAZARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE IMPACTS WILL BE
COMPLETELY TIED TO PRECIPITATION RATES...AND WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
RETURNS ALREADY PULLING NORTH THROUGH MENOMINEE COUNTY...THIS
PROVIDED A PRETTY SHORT WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL 2-4"
IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO
DRIZZLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...QUICK BURST OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...
BASED ON MORNING SPOTTER REPORTS AND AREA WEBCAMS...HAVE BOOSTED
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AS PRECIPITATION IS ARRIVING AS A BURST OF
SNOW FOR AREAS FROM MARQUETTE SOUTH AND WEST. DUAL POL VARIABLES
FROM THE KMQT-88D SUGGEST A GROWING SURFACE-BASED WARM LAYER AT
MQT...AND DO EXPECT A PRETTY STEADY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM EAST
TO WEST DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS CHANGEOVER NOT REACHING
AREAS FROM ONTONAGON TO IRONWOOD UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BY WHICH
TIME THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION.
ISSUED A SPS TO HANDLE QUICK BURST OF SNOW...AND MAY DO SO ONCE
MORE FOR WESTERN ZONES AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES HERE. DID SLOW
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL JUST A TAD BASED ON MORNING RADAR
EVOLUTION...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND AN
OCCLUDING CLOSED LOW OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. AT THE SFC...A
FEW SITES WERE REPORTING GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT
OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY
AND A LOW OVER NW MISSOURI. BOTH KCMX AND KMNM WERE REPORTING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND SE UPPER MI SUPPORTED BY 295K-300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MAKING VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY EASTERLY FLOW (BELOW 750 MB) TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PER 00Z APX SOUNDING.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTH INTO UPPER MI...INCREASING 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FINALLY
OVERCOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR AND ALLOW PCPN TO SPREAD FROM SCNTRL/SE CWA
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
SSE TO NNW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER PCPN WILL COINCIDE
WITH TROWAL REGION NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW AS NOTED ON MODELS
310-320 THETA-E LAYER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE 0.50 TO .75 INCH RANGE...THE STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA WHERE QPF COULD EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE NE FLOW INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI COULD ALSO SUPPORT
RELATIVELY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS THERE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PCPN TYPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI. THE 12Z NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT SNOW MAY BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE
OVER THE WRN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FAR WEST TOWARD IWD. EVEN WITH THE HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS...VERY LOW SLR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM ROAD SURFACES
SHOULD MINIMIZE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD KIWD
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY OR SNOW COVERED AREAS.
WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC TROWAL REGION LIFTING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TRANSITION TO MID-LVL Q-VECT DIVERGENCE...
LOOK FOR HEAVIER PCPN TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BTWN .1 TO .2 INCH. WITH
WARMING LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON SOUNDINGS AND RISING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES WOULD EXPECT PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN TONIGHT.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RUNOFF FROM PCPN AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO
RISING RIVER LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY 12Z WED...THE
UPPER LOW WILL CENTERED ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AND WILL WOBBLE E TO
NEAR ERN WI BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING E OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRI. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW/S AND A WEAK SFC LOW S/SE OF THE CWA WED
THROUGH THU...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
AND GREATER COVERAGE...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP WITH
LESSER COVERAGE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
ADDITIONAL ENERGY...BROAD BRUSHED POPS WILL COVER THINGS AT THIS
POINT...WITH MORE ENHANCEMENT NEEDED BY LATER SHIFTS. WARM NOSE
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FROM 12Z WED THROUGH
MOST OF WED NIGHT UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
ANY MIXED PRECIP OR SNOW FOR THE REST OF THU WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN UPPER MI AS ABOVE 0C TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND CONFINED MORE TO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND ERN
CWA. CONTINUED TO USE MODELED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FOR PTYPES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS LOWER AS MODEL
AGREEMENT IS POOR. IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGHING WITH MORE SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IS SHOWN OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED COLD AND WET CONDITIONS...BUT WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS THAT WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY INTO WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW ZONAL OR WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY WARMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
...OVERALL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY 18Z...
BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) IN THE PROCESS OF
WORKING UP THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING
TO SOLID IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES. HOWEVER...SRN BACK
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA AND EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. BUT...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS (SUB 1K FEET) AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
REMAINING DOMINANT. LATER THIS EVENING...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
FORMING OVER SRN WISCONSIN/CHICAGO LOOKING TO ROTATE UP INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND LOOKING TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN ANTICIPATED) LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. BUT EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT AND HAVE JUST GENERIC SHRADZ FOR THE TERMINAL SITES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE CIGS/VSBYS MAY
TRY TO NUDGE UP TO MVFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC IFR SIDE OF THINGS FOR NOW.
WINDS...NORTHEAST AND GUSTY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT BTWN A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE STRONG HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY CHANNELING
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ISLE ROYALE. A FEW ENE GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MAINLY
THIS MORNING BUT SUSTAINED GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED SO WATCH HEADLINE
HAS BEEN DROPPED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT THESE RIVERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE AND OTHER RIVERS WILL
START TO RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECTING UPPER MICHIGAN. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD AND AREAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...RFC ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS IF HIGHER
QPF FROM THE MODELS VERIFIES. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
RIVERS OF NORTHWEST UPPER MI...PARTICULARLY THE STURGEON RIVER OF
BARAGA/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND THE TRAP ROCK RIVER. THESE RIVERS STILL
HAVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THEIR BASINS AND IT IS
UNKNOWN EXACTLY HOW MUCH MELTING OF THAT SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION /WHICH WILL FALL AS WET SNOW FOR THE MOST PART
TODAY AND ALL RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSE.
THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR
RIVER LEVELS THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ARNOTT/APX
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ADAM
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
432 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING FOR THE TWIN PORTS
AND I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SNOW WILL BE LOCALIZED WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOW. HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW CAN
EXPECT 1-3" OF ACCUMULATION. SNOWFALL SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING
LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER EASTERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND
QUEBEC. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST HAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF NW MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA HAD CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THERE WAS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WHICH WAS
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA. THE BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN NE MINNESOTA.
THE CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS THE CURRENT MAIN BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN...AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT OTHER AREAS AS IT
MOVES WEST. IN THIS MAIN BAND OF MAXIMIZED OMEGA...SNOW IS
FALLING FROM ALOFT AND AT FALLING AS RAIN AT FIRST ALONG ITS
WESTERN LEADING EDGE. THEN THE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE
FALLING...AND ALLOWING THE PCPN TO SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE IS MAKING IT TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN PLENTY OF REPORTS THOUGH THAT THE SNOW IS EVENTUALLY
ACCUMULATING ON GRASS AND ROOFS AND SUCH...AND CREATING SLUSHY
ROADS. VISIBILITY IS ALSO LOW AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW
RATES. THIS BAND WILL BE SHIFTING INTO AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THAT HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WARMER THAN NW
WISCONSIN GOT TODAY DUE TO NW WISCONSIN BEING WET AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAINED DRY. THEREFORE...I
THINK IT WILL TAKE EXTRA TIME FOR THE PCPN TO SWITCH TO SNOW AND
FOR THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. IF THE SNOW LINGERS LONG ENOUGH AND/OR FALLS HEAVY
ENOUGH...ACCUMULATION COULD BE GREATER. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE BEEN
COVERING THIS SYSTEM WITH NOWCASTS DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING
LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT WE MIGHT NEED TO RECONSIDER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN
FORECAST.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL DEPICTING THE TIMING OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW...SO I LEANED ON THAT MODEL FOR MY HOURLY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT HUMIDITY IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER COULD
DRY UP FOR A TIME TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF PCPN...SO
PCPN COULD SWITCH FROM SNOW/RAIN TO DRIZZLE FOR A PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IT THEN APPEARS SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHY I HAVE BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST THE FORECAST AREA ALL THE WAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...SO I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
TIS THE SEASON...FOR ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKS THAT IS...AND THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA IS TAKING CENTER STAGE. MDLS
DISPLAY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT MID LVL FEATURE WILL MEANDER INTO
SRN MN BY WED MORNING...AND THEN SLIDE EAST TOWARDS NRN IL BY THUR
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A LARGE DEEP AND MOIST CIRCULATION WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS EXPRESSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GUARANTEE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER THE SKILL LEVEL FOR POPS IS RATHER LIMITED.
CHARACTERISTICALLY THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WOULD EXHIBIT HIGHER POPS
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION AND MIN POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THIS LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
TO BE MORE ALIGNED WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALOFT. WILL
USE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF THEME THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MDLS LIFT
SYSTEM EAST FRIDAY AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER ARRIVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER
INITIALLY IT WILL EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD SATURDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE NRN TIER OF ZONES. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MDT TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT FAIR WX MAY RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE MID LVL FLOW WHICH
ESTABLISHES RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS BLO LIMO
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THEN AIMING FOR NEAR SEASONAL VALUES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS AREA OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
OMEGA/DGZ CROSSING WISC ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING
WILL ADVECT INTO KDLH BY 19Z AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIAL PTYPE OF RASN SHOULD TRANSITION QUICKLY ONCE VERTICAL
MOTION INCREASES. OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HRS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MID LVL LOW MOVES INTO SERN MN AND SATURATION DEEPENS WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 41 36 44 / 100 80 70 60
INL 34 44 36 49 / 90 80 70 50
BRD 35 45 38 48 / 90 80 70 40
HYR 35 46 37 47 / 80 80 70 60
ASX 34 40 35 43 / 90 80 70 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER EASTERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND
QUEBEC. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST HAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF NW MINNESOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA HAD CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE. THERE WAS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND WHICH WAS
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA. THE BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN NE MINNESOTA.
THE CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS THE CURRENT MAIN BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN NW WISCONSIN...AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT OTHER AREAS AS IT
MOVES WEST. IN THIS MAIN BAND OF MAXIMIZED OMEGA...SNOW IS
FALLING FROM ALOFT AND AT FALLING AS RAIN AT FIRST ALONG ITS
WESTERN LEADING EDGE. THEN THE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE
FALLING...AND ALLOWING THE PCPN TO SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE IS MAKING IT TAKE SOME
TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN PLENTY OF REPORTS THOUGH THAT THE SNOW IS EVENTUALLY
ACCUMULATING ON GRASS AND ROOFS AND SUCH...AND CREATING SLUSHY
ROADS. VISIBILITY IS ALSO LOW AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW
RATES. THIS BAND WILL BE SHIFTING INTO AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THAT HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WARMER THAN NW
WISCONSIN GOT TODAY DUE TO NW WISCONSIN BEING WET AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAINED DRY. THEREFORE...I
THINK IT WILL TAKE EXTRA TIME FOR THE PCPN TO SWITCH TO SNOW AND
FOR THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS COULD SEE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. IF THE SNOW LINGERS LONG ENOUGH AND/OR FALLS HEAVY
ENOUGH...ACCUMULATION COULD BE GREATER. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE BEEN
COVERING THIS SYSTEM WITH NOWCASTS DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION BEING
LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT WE MIGHT NEED TO RECONSIDER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN
FORECAST.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL DEPICTING THE TIMING OF THIS
BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW...SO I LEANED ON THAT MODEL FOR MY HOURLY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT HUMIDITY IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER COULD
DRY UP FOR A TIME TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF PCPN...SO
PCPN COULD SWITCH FROM SNOW/RAIN TO DRIZZLE FOR A PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IT THEN APPEARS SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHY I HAVE BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST THE FORECAST AREA ALL THE WAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY BE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...SO I DID NOT PUT ANY FREEZING RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
TIS THE SEASON...FOR ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKS THAT IS...AND THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA IS TAKING CENTER STAGE. MDLS
DISPLAY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT MID LVL FEATURE WILL MEANDER INTO
SRN MN BY WED MORNING...AND THEN SLIDE EAST TOWARDS NRN IL BY THUR
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A LARGE DEEP AND MOIST CIRCULATION WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS EXPRESSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GUARANTEE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER THE SKILL LEVEL FOR POPS IS RATHER LIMITED.
CHARACTERISTICALLY THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WOULD EXHIBIT HIGHER POPS
DIURNALLY WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION AND MIN POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THIS LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
TO BE MORE ALIGNED WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE FEATURES ALOFT. WILL
USE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF THEME THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY. MDLS LIFT
SYSTEM EAST FRIDAY AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER ARRIVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER
INITIALLY IT WILL EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY OVERHEAD SATURDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE NRN TIER OF ZONES. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A MDT TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT FAIR WX MAY RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE MID LVL FLOW WHICH
ESTABLISHES RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS BLO LIMO
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THEN AIMING FOR NEAR SEASONAL VALUES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS AREA OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
OMEGA/DGZ CROSSING WISC ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING
WILL ADVECT INTO KDLH BY 19Z AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIAL PTYPE OF RASN SHOULD TRANSITION QUICKLY ONCE VERTICAL
MOTION INCREASES. OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HRS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MID LVL LOW MOVES INTO SERN MN AND SATURATION DEEPENS WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 41 36 44 / 90 80 70 60
INL 34 44 36 49 / 90 80 70 50
BRD 35 45 38 48 / 80 80 70 40
HYR 35 46 37 47 / 70 80 70 60
ASX 34 40 35 43 / 70 80 70 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST HAS PUSHED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND RUC RH PROFILES. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL RAINBAND IS
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.
BROAD DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND MIDWEST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY HAVE AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY
TODAY BEFORE THE WET WEATHER ARRIVES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL RAIN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SUNSHINE
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL
A BIT COOL FOR LATE APRIL DUE MARINE MODIFIED AIR WORKING IN ON
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE
INFLUENCE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA
INTO THE SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EDT TUESDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...700-500MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
MORNING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES SLOWLY EAST...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO VERMONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT
STILL SHAPING UP TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL RAIN BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING OCCLUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
FINALLY SPREAD STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. THIS COUPLED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALL SUPPORT
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AFFECTING PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY AS OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKES ITS EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WHILE TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH POPS
PREFERRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS MILDER WITH HIGHS AROUND
60. A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT
EXPECTED TILL LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...LOOKING AT 1.25-1.5" ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT AND FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM WHERE AMOUNTS LOWER DUE SOME SHADOWING.
HYDROLOGICALLY...RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR BASE LEVELS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AUSABLE FORKS AND OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND
IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST...ALL RIVERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS THE REGION WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. VARIABLY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY VFR
CEILING HEIGHTS...THOUGH OCCASIONALLY MVFR. WINDS ARE STRONG OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PRECIPITATION...WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN.
00Z FRI THRU SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1251 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST HAS PUSHED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND RUC RH PROFILES. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL RAINBAND IS
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS AT THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
BROAD DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND MIDWEST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY HAVE AN INCREASING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE...IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY
TODAY BEFORE THE WET WEATHER ARRIVES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL RAIN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST DUE TO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MAIN
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SUNSHINE WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL
A BIT COOL FOR LATE APRIL DUE MARINE MODIFIED AIR WORKING IN ON
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
55 TO 60 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE
INFLUENCE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SPRINGFIELD VT AREA
INTO THE SRN GREENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EDT TUESDAY...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...700-500MB
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MORNING WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY
EAST...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO VERMONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MARINE MODIFIED AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND WE
WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT STILL
SHAPING UP TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING OCCLUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL FINALLY SPREAD
STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BEST FORCING AND
LIFT WILL OCCUR. THIS COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALL SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AFFECTING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THURSDAY AS OCCLUDED FRONT
MAKES ITS EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WHILE TRAILING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH POPS
PREFERRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPS MILDER WITH HIGHS AROUND
60. A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT
EXPECTED TILL LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...LOOKING AT 1.25-1.5" ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. GENERALLY 0.75-1" IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE AMOUNTS LOWER DUE SOME SHADOWING.
HYDROLOGICALLY...RIVERS HAVE RECEDED TO NEAR BASE LEVELS BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AUSABLE FORKS AND OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND
IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS CURRENT EXPECATATIONS. BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST...ALL RIVERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN BANKFULL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AS THE REGION WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS IN-BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST AND WEST TODAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO KRUT/KMPV EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARDS ALL SITES BEING VFR UNDER MID CLOUDS BY MID-DAY AS
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL WITH ANY SUNSHINE INCREASING MIXING AND EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS
OF 20-30KTS ACROSS THE REGION. LATE TODAY MID CLOUDS THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR THROUGH 12Z EXCEPT FOR
KRUT AND KMPV WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL VFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1257 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTION IMPACTING AIRPORTS.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING/IMPACTS...AND REMOVED
TS MENTION FROM CKV TAF AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM BNA
EASTWARD. TSRA LOOKS TO AFFECT BNA/CSV BETWEEN 22/23Z THROUGH
02/03Z...WITH ADDITIONAL -SHRA EXPECTED AT CSV AFTER 02Z.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER -SHRA/-TSRA...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM 998 MBAR CYCLONE CENTERED OVER FAR
EASTERN IOWA DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THEN ON DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO A LOW
THAT JUST FORMED IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER
WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP IN SPEED NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS
NORTHWARD TOWARD CYCLONE CENTER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AT MID-DAY. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO MISSISSPPI SHORTLY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 4 PM. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
025>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WERE SPREADING OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE INTO OUR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
MORNING. BLOWING DUST ALREADY LESS THAN A MILE REPORTED IN SWISHER
COUNTY...WITH SIMILAR REPORTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. WE
HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE CASTRO AND HALE
COUNTIES...AND ALSO ADDED A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS
WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY MAINLY ON THE CAP-ROCK. THE HIGHEST WIND
SPEEDS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THE
LATEST RAP RUNS...THEN SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDRESSING THE FREEZE WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT...FIRST THOUGHTS ARE
THIS IS A GENUINELY COLD AIRMASS BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP
ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. WILL STUDY MORE THIS
AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST RESTRICTIONS AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH VFR THUS DOMINATING. A HIGH-
BASED LOW CLOUD DECK WILL AT LEAST SCATTER ACROSS BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG DRY WINDS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT TODAY...EVEN LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE RED FLAG MINUTES LIKELY WILL
CLICK OFF. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL WE WILL NOT ISSUE EITHER A RED FLAG OR FIRE DANGER PRODUCT
FOR TODAY. THIS IS A BIT OF A GREY AREA FOR US AS THE WINDS APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN...BUT WILL BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT COUNTERED BY THE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CAUTION CERTAINLY IS ADVISED FOR ANYONE CONTEMPLATING BURNS TODAY.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
AVIATION...
ANOTHER LOW TO MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE
CNTL PLAINS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA BY MID
MORNING WITH NORTH TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25G35KT FOR
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. SOME MINOR OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY DUE
TO BLDU EXPECTED AT KLBB.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER...BUT WHAT SHOULD BE THE LAST...WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME NORTH BREEZES ARE STILL
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW CENTERED
OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI AND WILL SHIFT EWD TO ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN
BY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE NEARLY
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL
KEEP THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. IN ADDITION...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CORE OF HIGHER NORTH TO NW WINDS AT 850-700 MB
THAT WILL ROTATE SWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MASSIVELY LARGE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MIXING OF THAT MOMENTUM TO THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST 20-30 MPH WINDS AREAWIDE WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF THE NERN
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA SEEING WINDS PUSH TOWARD 35 MPH...
PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX. SOME CONCERN THAT MIXING MAY NOT BE TERRIBLY EFFICIENT WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND THAT LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY
ALSO RETARD MIXING POTENTIAL. MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON SOME
OF THESE CONCERNS AS WELL. HOWEVER...ATTM WILL GIVE THE NOD TOWARD
THE STRONGER GFS GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZATION AND
EXPECTATION THAT THE WRF-NAM IS OVERDOING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A TULIA TO SPUR
LINE.
OTHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS
THE NWRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HAVE SOME CONCERN BASED ON UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND HOW WELL SFC WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANOTHER 850 MB CORE OF STRONGER WINDS PROGGED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD...BUT BOTH RAW MODEL TEMPS AND MOS TEMPS SUGGEST THAT A
PERIOD OF 30-32F IS POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST POCKETS OF THE NWRN ZONES.
AM NOT SOLD ON THE IDEA...BUT GIVEN WE ARE NOW ABOUT 8-12 DAYS AFTER
THE AVG DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE AND A LITTLE MORE SINCE THE ACTUAL
LAST FREEZE FOR THAT AREA AM INCLINED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH.
LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS...HAS SLOWLY
SHIFTED NE TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST UA RIDGING IMPINGES ON THE WRN CONUS. AS
SUCH...WNWRLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LEADING TO PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING AND THUS PERSISTENT NRLY
SFC WINDS USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORM TEMPS /50S AND 60S/ THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCURRING TOMORROW. MID-UPPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL BE WANING BY TOMORROW...BUT SLIGHTLY BREEZY NRLY
WINDS /15-20 MPH/ ARE STILL ON TAP /MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK/...WITH
MOST WELCOMED LIGHT WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY.
AN UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO DEPICT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS
EAST NM. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONFINES THE PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NM...WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND HENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS WRN ZONES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DISPLAYING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUGGEST MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY BEING THE RULE...AND WILL OPT TO CONTINUE BELOW
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM. UA RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT NEAR ZONAL FLOW
AND CAUSE THE STUBBORN BROAD UA LOW TO FINALLY LIFT NE INTO QUEBEC.
GRADUALLY WARMING WILL THEREBY COMMENCE AS THE RETURN OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND S-SW SFC WINDS TAKES SHAPE. TEMPS WILL WARM FROM THE
70S AND 80S ON FRIDAY TO THE 80S AND 90S BY SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...DUE TO
HEIGHT FALLS FROM A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE MOVING ON THE CALI SHORE.
ALL IN ALL...A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 32 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 64 34 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 65 35 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 67 36 63 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 67 37 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 67 39 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 68 39 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 70 41 67 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 71 41 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 73 44 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ022>026-029>032-037-038.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022>025-029>031.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028.
&&
$$
05/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST CANADA...INTO HUDSON BAY AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW WAS CUT OFF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY SLOT ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS KICKED THE SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90 THIS MORNING TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND BACK SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE... UNDER THE UPPER LOW...SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. UPWARDS OF 250 J/KG
OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WAS DEPICTED BY RAP ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE
SHOWERS. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
NEW GRANT COUNTY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO KENOSHA WI
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
GET GRADUALLY WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW TOO...WITH THE 12Z MPX
AND INL SOUNDINGS REPORTING 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 0 AND
-2C. THIS COLDER AIR ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FALL NORTH OF
THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. EVEN SOME SNOW FELL ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 THIS MORNING WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RESULTED IN
DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. MOST OF THE SNOW WAS CONFINED TO
GRASSY SURFACES.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BASICALLY MOVES NOWHERE. THIS LEAVES
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN COLD CONVEYOR BELT AFFECTING MINNESOTA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO WRAP BACK INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS
EVENING...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE POSSIBLY
BREAKING UP SOME. SOME OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT COULD WRAP INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW...AS DEPICTED IN WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHT PROGS DROPPING BELOW
1000 FT. AUSTIN TO CHARLES CITY LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AND THE GROUND IS WARM. TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD ROTATE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT IS
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO THE
COOLER AIR OVER MINNESOTA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS NO REAL STRONG IDENTIFICATION FEATURE FOR
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...THOUGH MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY A INSTABILITY ISSUE...RESULTING FROM COLDER AIR
ALOFT FROM THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SEEMS THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE PRECIPITATION. 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -3C
WEST TO 2C EAST...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. SIDED
TOWARDS THE LOW SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE...ITS COMING...WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A SWITCH TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEN A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. BY 00Z FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
LAKE HURON. UNTIL THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...WE WILL NEED TO CONTEND
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ROTATING AROUND IT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD DIMINISH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE 29.00Z ECMWF AND 29.12Z CANADIAN...BUT THIS WILL
ALL HINGE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW EJECTS. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
GOING TO BE COOL THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN 850MB TEMPS HOLDING BETWEEN -
2C AND 1C AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS. DESPITE THE COOL 850MB TEMPS...PROGGED
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE 1500 FT AGL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW
OUT OF THE PICTURE.
THE PLAGUE OF RAIN THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA MAY FINALLY TAKE A
BREAK THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLOUD CLEARING LOOKS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER...AND POSSIBLY NOT EVEN CLEARING AT ALL IN WISCONSIN. IN
FACT...THE 29.12Z NAM SUGGESTS PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE LINGERING IN
WISCONSIN AS A RESULT OF THESE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. ALTHOUGH ITS
IN THE MINORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS WARRANTED FOR WISCONSIN.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EJECTING UPPER LOW.
29.12Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH THIS
WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. KEPT SOME
LOWER PROBABILITIES IN FOR THIS WAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODEL
SCENARIOS.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA PROGGED TO BARREL THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPEED AND
LOCATION...BUT ALL HAVE THE SAME IDEA. GIVEN THE POTENT NATURE OF
THE WAVE...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY...BUT THE DIFFERENCES CREATE
ISSUES WITH GOING TOO HIGH ON CHANCES. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL SEE RAIN...BUT ELSEWHERE IT IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EITHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
GIVEN SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY IT.
LOOKS LIKE BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL THEN END UP DRY DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE.
WITH THE RETURN TO UPPER RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND WARM ADVECTION COME INTO THE PICTURE. BOTH THE 29.12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. THE WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND A WARM FRONT SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO I-70 WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK FROM REACHING
NORMAL. NEVERTHELESS...THE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...LEADING TO IFR/LIFR MAINLY CLOUD CEILING CONDITIONS. KRST
WILL SEE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...SWITCHING TO MAINLY RAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO A MIX THIS EVENING AGAIN
WITH COOLING. KLSE EXPECTED TO SEE OFF/ON SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED NOW FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL GREATLY HELP DIMINISH THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING
ON TRIBUTARIES. RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE
TRIBUTARIES BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THEM.
MEANWHILE...PLENTIFUL RAIN THAT FELL UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA COMBINED WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL ALLOW THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CONTINUE TO RISE. MANY SITES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD RISE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE POSTED ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI AS A RESULT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WIZ033-041-053-054-061.
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MNZ088-096.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
OCCLUDED CYCLONE SPINNING OVER EASTERN IOWA AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. EARLIER BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW
THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS PIVOTED AROUND TO THE
UPPER PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THE MOST PART. STILL
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ONGOING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE EARLIER REPORTS INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THOUGH
OBS ARE NOT NECESSARILY REPORTING IT...THINK A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
MIST AND DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND ARE
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. STILL ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. TIMING OF SHOWERS IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...THE LARGE AND STUBBORN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. NEXT AREA OF RAINFALL IS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A SILVER LINING IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION OF
SNOW. BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE STATE AND WIND
FIELDS WEAKENING...LOW STRATUS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING DECENT RAINS
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
LOW SHOULD STILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPS COULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE
LOW 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS WI ON
WEDS NGT. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK DRY SLOT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN WI DURING THE EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WILL ADJUSTED POP TRENDS ACCORDINGLY...BUT
12 HOUR POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER NE WI. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON THU NGT/FRI...
AS A COUPLE S/W TROFS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI ON SATURDAY. THE LFQ OF A 110 KT
JET STREAK AND A POTENT S/W TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT...AND
ADDED ISOLD THUNDER AS H7-H5 LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7 C/KM.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND SHOULD BRING A RARE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK...
SFC/H8 WARM FRONTS WILL WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER.
THIS MAY BRING A SMALL OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TSTMS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WAA EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A
LITTLE BIT. IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE OCCURS...
TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SWITCH
BACK TO RAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE TO MVFR. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF IFR CIGS ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IFR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...WEAKENING WINDS AND AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS INTO THE LIFR RANGE. DENSE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS THIS OCCURS AS
WELL. EXPECT ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF THE CIGS/VSBSY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1146 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IA. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WI THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH WED
AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND LOW. HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN NOW MOVING
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. DRY AIR VERY PRESENT ON APX
EVENING SOUNDING BEING ADVECTED IN OVER NORTHERN WI ON STRONG EAST
WINDS...LIMITING PCPN AMOUNTS SO FAR. THIS DRY AIR VERY EVIDENT
OVER FAR NORTH WHERE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 20S. AS PCPN MOVES IN
OVER NORTH SEEING SNOW/SLEET SHOWING UP...THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS
STILL MILD SO AM NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MIX INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELDS POINT TO
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK WAA BRINGS 850
TEMP UP TO +2 OVER VILAS COUNTY BY TONIGHT. AS LOW MOVES NORTH
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK OFF...BECOMING LIGHT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WED. MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. WILL ADD TO MARINE
ZONES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFT DEBATE LAND ZONES.
BEST MOISTURE/PW`S OVER 1 INCH NOW OFF TO THE EAST OF STATE...WILL
DROP ISSUING ESF WITH LESSER QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNATURE EVENT) WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEM COULD BRING CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAT WHAT IS IN THE QPF
FORECAST GRID. UNFORTUNATELY...WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHERE
THIS TYPE OF EVENT WOULD FORM. EVEN IF A SHARS EVENT DOES DEVELOP...IT
WOULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN WHAT IS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND COULD IMPACT RIVER FORECASTS. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN
06Z-12Z FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY (MAYBE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST).
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW...FORCING ALOFT AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS
POOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOOKED AT THUNDER PROSPECTS...DID NOT SUPPORT ADDING
THUNDER AT THIS POINT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WARRANTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SWITCH
BACK TO RAIN EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP VSBYS
IMPROVE TO MVFR. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF IFR CIGS ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IFR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...WEAKENING WINDS AND AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS INTO THE LIFR RANGE. DENSE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS THIS OCCURS AS
WELL. EXPECT ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF THE CIGS/VSBSY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......RE
AVIATION.......MPC