Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/27/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1001 PM PDT Thu Apr 24 2014
.Synopsis...
A weather system will bring a chance of widespread precipitation
along with cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels tonight
into early Saturday. Potential for isolated thunderstorms on
Friday.
&&
.Discussion...
Showers continue to increase this evening as upper trough drops
south along the coast. A band of strong thunderstorms developed
earlier this evening near Chico with plenty of lightning and a
few small hail reports. Best shower chances overnight will shift
south over the southern Sacramento valley and central Sierra
as shown by latest HRRR run. Have updated forecast to raise pops
in these areas overnight. Showers will increase over northern
areas towards morning with upper low dropping south.
.Previous Discussion (Today through Sunday)... WSW to SWly flow
aloft over Norcal moistening as .80+" TPW plume moves onto the Nrn
CA coast. Mostly Light precip forecast through most of tonite as
the frontal band moves towards the I-80 corridor by around
midnight...and well SE of our CWA by early Fri morning. Synoptic
scale or larger scale forcing is forecast to increase over Norcal
on Fri (per convergence of Q vectors) as short wave and jet energy
on the backside of Ern Pac trof digs the trof along the coast
during the day. Then...during Friday night into early Sat this
energy continues to dig rapidly into Socal. Thus...for our CWA the
bulk of the precip is expected on Fri in widespread and bands of
heavier showers/storms. Liquid amounts over an inch in the Siernev
are possible and up to a third of an inch in the Valley. QPF
should then be decreasing from N to S during Fri afternoon and
evening.
Cloud top enhancement west of the CA coast beginning to occur this
afternoon as short wave energy near 40N/135W begins to interact with
the moisture plume. This feature moves Ewd tonite and rain or
showers should become more widespread over Norcal during the
night. Convergence and surface heating along the E side of the
coastal range may result in an isolated storm this evening...
otherwise decreasing intensity until dynamics increase Fri
morning.
Heavier precip is expected on Fri as the digging trof will bring
colder/unstable air into Norcal...not only lowering snow
levels...but resulting in deep convection (showers/thunderstorms).
One...snow levels should lower to around around 4000 Nrn mtns to
4500 to 5500 feet over the Siernev on Fri. Two...the best
instability and greatest thunderstorm potential looks to be over the
central and southern Sacramento valley in deference to the location
of the NE quad of the vort max during the 18z-00z Fri time frame.
Increasing onshore gradients on Fri will result in Delta Breezes and
topographic channeling of the winds on the E side of the Sac vly.
Convergence there could be the focus for stronger storms with
possibility of hail.
Up to nearly a foot of snow is expected over the higher elevations
of the Siernev and 5-9 inches or so near pass levels...although
melting/settling at this time of year may account for a couple of
inches less accumulation. Greatest snowfall amounts expected to be
from the I-80/Hwy-50 corridor Swd in zone 69 given the track of
the short wave energy within the upper trof.
This rapidly digging trof maintains a neutral tilt over CA. Forecast
hodographs for the valley on Fri are mostly cyclonically curved...
not broadly looping and favoring left moving storms with negative
helicity. This is not the typical TOR set-up for Norcal...and favors
more the hail producing storms given the steep lapse rates forecast
with the advection of colder air.
As this system moves across the Four-Corners area Sat nite...
another short-wave is forecast to bring a chance of light precip
mainly over the mtns into Sun morning. By Sun afternoon...ridging
should prevail over Norcal with warmer/drier wx. JHM
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Medium range models amplify EPAC upper ridge through first half of
the extended forecast period for dry weather and warming.
Amplifying EPAC upper ridge Monday is forecast to shift inland
Tue/Wed by the GFS/GEM. The ECMWF-HiRes keeps the ridge axis off
the West Coast as it digs an upper low southward through the
Great Basin. The GFS/GEM solutions suggest more warming than the
Euro which points to breezier conditions Tue/Wed. All point to
temperatures well above normal early next week with highs from the
mid 80s to near 90 in the Central Valley and upper 60s to lower
80s for the mountains and foothills.
Models diverge beyond midweek but all suggest minor cooling as
the ridge weakens Thursday, either from an approaching Pacific
short wave system or from a backdoor trough dropping in from the
east. Thus have lowered temps a few degrees day seven with
continued dry.
PCH
&&
.Aviation...
A cold front system continues to impact NorCal tonight into
Friday. For the next 24 hours, valley conditions will generally be
VFR except for local MVFR/IFR when showers develop. For the
mountains, areas of MVFR/IFR expected with local IFR conditions in
heavier showers. Snow levels will lower overnight down to
4500-5500 ft by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible
across the valley and mountains between 12z Fri and 03z Sat.
Generally W to S winds in the valley now through Friday with
enhanced southerly winds in portions of the valley Fri morning and
afternoon with local gusts up to 30 kts between KCIC and KSMF.
Mountain winds will be SW with gusts up to 35 kts...locally higher
over Sierra ridgetops. JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 5 am pdt saturday above 5000 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada...western plumas
county/lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
915 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS. BEGINNING SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 130W THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF WFO SACRAMENTO/S WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE WAY THE LATEST NAM-12 AND HIGH-
RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/ HANDLE THIS STORM AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE HRRR HAVING A BETTER DEFINED WARM
FRONTAL SECTOR. THE 00Z HRRR BRINGS PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS
HANFORD BY 13Z /0600/ FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AN
HOUR LATER. THE WARM SECTOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF HANFORD AROUND 15Z /0800 PDT/...CONTINUING OVER TULARE COUNTY
THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM-12 HAS MUCH SLOWER TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND
KEEPS IT NORTH OF KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM-12 TIMING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z
GFS...LENDING BETTER SUPPORT TO THE HRRR TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH
THROUGH KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS/HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z FRIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY IN PRECIPITATION. LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 107 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATING PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM NRN CA WILL SPREAD PRECIP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATES
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH UPSLOPE FORCING AND WRING OUT
ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST TOMORROW AS COLD POOL REMAINS
OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING IN THE AM WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED CELL POP UP NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. MUCAPES
ARE LESS THAN 200 J/KG AND SFC BASED LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 0 OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
SNOW WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE SIERRA AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
START HIGH AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER WE ARE EXPECTING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THE NEW
HPC/CNRFC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL WITHIN ADV CRITERIA. WE HAVE STARTED SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000
FEET AND LOWERED THEM TO 4000 FEET BY THE END OF THE EVENT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS. AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF INTO KERN COUNTY
AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CONDITIONS
WIND DOWN LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AM.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT REGIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERT ESCARPMENT NEAR MOJAVE. WINDS
WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SAT...INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-24 101:1910 60:1899 63:1910 36:1958
KFAT 04-25 101:1898 55:1952 64:1898 36:1964
KFAT 04-26 98:1926 57:1955 68:1926 37:1975
KBFL 04-24 100:1910 64:1994 62:1981 34:1904
KBFL 04-25 97:1946 60:1951 65:1910 32:1893
KBFL 04-26 98:1926 57:1904 67:1926 32:1893
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK SOUTH TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...JDB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHACE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS. BEGINNING SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 130W THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF WFO SACRAMENTO/S WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE WAY THE LATEST NAM-12 AND HIGH-
RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/ HANDLE THIS STORM AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE HRRR HAVING A BETTER DEFINED WARM
FRONTAL SECTOR. THE 00Z HRRR BRINGS PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS
HANFORD BY 13Z /0600/ FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AN
HOUR LATER. THE WARM SECTOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF HANFORD AROUND 15Z /0800 PDT/...CONTINUING OVER TULARE COUNTY
THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM-12 HAS MUCH SLOWER TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND
KEEPS IT NORTH OF KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM-12 TIMING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z
GFS...LENDING BETTER SUPPORT TO THE HRRR TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH
THROUGH KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS/HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z FRIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY IN PRECIPITATION. LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 107 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATING PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM NRN CA WILL SPREAD PRECIP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATES
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH UPSLOPE FORCING AND WRING OUT
ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST TOMORROW AS COLD POOL REMAINS
OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING IN THE AM WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED CELL POP UP NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. MUCAPES
ARE LESS THAN 200 J/KG AND SFC BASED LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 0 OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
SNOW WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE SIERRA AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
START HIGH AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER WE ARE EXPECTING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THE NEW
HPC/CNRFC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL WITHIN ADV CRITERIA. WE HAVE STARTED SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000
FEET AND LOWERED THEM TO 4000 FEET BY THE END OF THE EVENT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS. AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF INTO KERN COUNTY
AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CONDITIONS
WIND DOWN LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AM.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT REGIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERT ESCARPMENT NEAR MOJAVE. WINDS
WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SAT...INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-24 101:1910 60:1899 63:1910 36:1958
KFAT 04-25 101:1898 55:1952 64:1898 36:1964
KFAT 04-26 98:1926 57:1955 68:1926 37:1975
KBFL 04-24 100:1910 64:1994 62:1981 34:1904
KBFL 04-25 97:1946 60:1951 65:1910 32:1893
KBFL 04-26 98:1926 57:1904 67:1926 32:1893
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK SOUTH TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...JDB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.
BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.
SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT
NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A
MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES
IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO
FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF
ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF.
ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING
MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD
FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS
HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND
MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING.
HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES
AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS
AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING
CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT
COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASE TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL TO
40 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT
SOUTH TONIGHT AND TURN WEST AROUND 10 MPH SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BRING A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BRING
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE QPF.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.
BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.
SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT
NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A
MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES
IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO
FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF
ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF.
ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING
MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD
FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS
HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND
MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING.
HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES
AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS
AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING
CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT
COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SNCDRY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.
BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.
SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE
WILL BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
615 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE GA COAST AND EAST CENTRAL
FL COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA...VERTICAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LOW OVER SE GA/NE FL FOR PRECIP TODAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FROM FORMING
AND HAVE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ENOUGH LOW/MID MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
SUNDAY AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S COAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND
TO THE MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS RESULTING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM THE WEEKENDS VERY WARM READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE MAINLY LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR WED/THU...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING MORE TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN THE 60S.
.AVIATION...
INLAND BR/LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH
13-14Z...WITH IFR FOR GNV/VQQ/JAX PERHAPS REACHING CRG. VFR WILL
PREVAIL FOR SSI. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/BR WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. SEABREEZE EFFECTS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH PREVAILING SW WINDS
THIS AFTN OF 10-14 KT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A VEERING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 81 65 76 63 / 10 10 10 0
JAX 87 61 85 62 / 10 10 10 0
SGJ 84 64 79 64 / 0 10 10 0
GNV 87 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 87 64 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE GA COAST AND EAST CENTRAL
FL COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA...VERTICAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LOW OVER SE GA/NE FL FOR PRECIP TODAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FROM FORMING
AND HAVE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ENOUGH LOW/MID MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
SUNDAY AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S COAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND
TO THE MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS RESULTING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM THE WEEKENDS VERY WARM READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE MAINLY LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR WED/THU...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING MORE TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN THE 60S.
.AVIATION...
INLAND BR AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WILL USE IFR FOR GNV...WITH MVFR FOR VQQ/JAX.
WILL KEEP CRG/SSI VFR. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/BR WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. SEABREEZE EFFECTS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH PREVAILING SW WINDS
THIS AFTN OF 10-14 KT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A VEERING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 81 65 76 63 / 10 10 10 0
JAX 87 61 85 62 / 10 10 10 0
SGJ 84 64 79 64 / 0 10 10 0
GNV 87 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 87 64 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING
INTO EASTERN AL.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT
THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL
WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE.
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N
GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE
GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY
OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND
MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW
GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOST AREAS VFR ALREADY...SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA HOWEVER I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY 20Z...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER THIS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO CHRONIC...FOG-PRONE SITES AND I DO NOT EXPECT
ANY RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO
NORTHWEST 8-14KT WITH GUSTS 17-24KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO
3-6KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BY 12-14Z AREAWIDE AROUND
2-5KT BECOMING MORE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE INCREASING TO 4-8KT BY 16-18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0
ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5
MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0
VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING
INTO EASTERN AL.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT
THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL
WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE.
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N
GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE
GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY
OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND
MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW
GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE ALL BUT
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK ALONG THE
AL/GA LINE ARE CREEPING EASTWARD. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING...NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL OCCUR AND
LAST VERY LONG. CLOUDS WILL SCT OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20KT. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EARLY EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0
ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5
MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0
VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING
INTO EASTERN AL.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT
THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL
WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE.
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N
GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE
GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY
OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND
MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW
GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AL. THE PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE HAD TO ADD PRECIP TO
THE TAF. AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST. HAVE ADDED VCSH AND A TEMPO GROUP. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE
TEMPO GROUP IN FURTHER AMD IF LINE DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES INTO A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. CIGS SHOULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0
ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5
MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0
VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES AS
OF 2 PM ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AREA WIDE. DEWPOINTS HAVE
MANAGED TO STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ARE
ONLY NOW DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BROAD RIDGING
TAKING PLACE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO ALBERTA CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE CWA HAS NOW PUSHED EAST
INTO INDIANA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SEEN SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER
MINNESOTA WITH MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SYSTEM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND STALL AS IT REACHES THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. HI-RES
MODELS AND THE LATEST RAP TRENDS ALL SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
OMEGAS...AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT INCREASING TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM THE QUAD CITIES TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. I AM CONCERNED THAT
THE SURFACE TO 850MB LAYER MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND AND WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NIGHT SHIFT. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND ITS POSITION EARLY SATURDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING TO 900MB
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. AN ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...BLOCKED...PATTERN
EVOLVING OVER THE CONSUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...RESULTING IN FLOODING ON AREA
TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. DEEP SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN TROF WILL BRING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE WARM
FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE POINTED
AT EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA PROVIDING FORCING FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.
THE MCS SHOULD TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING EASTERN IA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
MCS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE...SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MO OR SOUTHERN IA AND CENTRAL
IL AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING. HOWEVER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADIC STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS WPC 3 DAY TOTAL QPF
ENDING MONDAY MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG I80. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN PW/S OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM.
AFTER MONDAY MOST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MORE SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S AND THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW STILL OVER HEAD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK DRY SURFACE AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THEN TREND BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS...FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THERE STILL REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE IOWA-MISSOURI
BORDER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THREAT OF FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT OCCURS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY TO MIDWEEK. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO OCCUR OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH MANY
OF THE AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SEEING AT LEAST
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...GROSS
HYDROLOGY...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
942 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
00Z TOP sounding showed an elevated mixed layer capping off surface
based convection. The dryline has retreated west this evening
across western Kansas. Therefore have cut back on the
precipitation chances until after midnight where chances will
continue to increase after 09Z. Strengthening low level jet as
well as isentropic lift in the 305K to 310k layer and increasing
ascent ahead of the upper trough moving across the Rockies should
kick off storms in the overnight hours. HRRR continues to develop
convection from southwest and south central Kansas and then move
it northeast into the cwa in the 09Z-11Z time period. Current
forecast accounts for this scenario very well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Focus on the period is the isolated severe storm potential early
this evening, followed by scattered severe storms being possible
early Sunday morning and afternoon.
A strong and windy afternoon across northeast Kansas as temperatures
warmed into the lower 80s. Wind gusts ahead of a deepening lee
trough ranged between 30 and 40 mph during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Dryline has setup across western Kansas as moisture
pulls northward, noted by upper 50s to near 60 degrees in central
Kansas, dropping to the low 20s in far western Kansas.
For late this afternoon into early this evening, short and long term
guidance is consistently indicating the dryline to bulge eastward
into north central Kansas. Strong convergence along and just ahead
of the boundary may provide just enough lift to erode the capping
inversion in place over far north central areas. Surface based CAPE
values increase to 1500 J/KG as effective bulk shear peaks near 45
kts. Strong boundary layer mixing by late afternoon lifts LCL
heights to around 4000 feet. Current thinking is that isolated
thunderstorms are possible over north central KS during the early
evening hours (generally after 6 PM). The higher LCL heights and
less than ideal moisture return leaves the tornado threat low for
this evening. Main threat with these thunderstorms will be the large
hail and localized damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to
track northeast into Nebraska through the evening hours. Conditions
remain dry elsewhere. Moisture return and increased cloud cover keep
lows mild in the middle to upper 60s.
Moisture advection increases overnight into Sunday as the strong
upper low lifts northeast through Colorado into northwest Kansas.
Widespread, broad ascent increases over southern into portions of
northeast Kansas generally after midnight as an 80 kt mid level jet
streak rounds the base of the wave. The increasing lift combined
with steepening mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE values approaching
3000 J/KG sets the stage for another cluster of thunderstorms to form
in the vicinity of southern Kansas, tracking eastward across
portions of north central and east central KS. Latest short term
guidance is not as aggressive with widespread precip developing
further north so have lowered pops to chance and kept highest
chances south of Interstate 70. Main threats with these storms would
be large hail and strong winds.
Uncertainty increases from early morning through the afternoon on
Sunday. Most guidance progs the dryline to surge eastward between 7
to 10 AM with showers and thunderstorms possible over the area,
remaining elevated in nature due to the strong surface inhibition in
place. A few storms may be severe with large hail and gusty winds
possible. Main limiting factor would be if these storms create a
stable surface layer, limiting surface based cells from developing
in the afternoon. Daytime heating and sunshine would allow the
surface instability to increase by afternoon, however the increasing
surface moisture should hold the overcast skies for much of the day.
Assuming convection impacts mainly areas just south of the CWA and
perhaps north central areas, much of east central KS would remain
precip free for a short time, resulting in a higher risk for severe
weather during the late morning into the afternoon. By 1 PM the
dryline is shown to be roughly along a line from Washington, to Clay
Center, and Abilene. Increased chances for thunderstorms to likely
east of this area as the weak capping inversion is able to erode as
surface based instability raises to over 2000 J/KG. Maximizing bulk
shear in excess of 50 kts suggest strong rotating updrafts,
including supercells. The parallel orientation of the winds to the
boundary suggest line segments with embedded areas of rotation are
also possible. Individual cells stand the best chance of a tornado
potential while other modes face a large hail and damaging wind
hazard. Best areas to be impacted by these storms are along and east
of highway 99 through the early evening as the storms and attendant
dryline push eastward.
In addition to the thunder, southerly winds remain gusty through
Sunday with sustained speeds between 20 and 25 mph with gusts near
35 mph. Dewpoints sharply falling over north central Kansas during
the late afternoon Sunday raise the fire danger to very high.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Line of storms moving through far eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon
may linger into the evening hours and have kept a chance far east
to accommodate that potential. Dryline and unstable air push
eastward, leaving area under northwest flow through the boundary
layer Monday and Monday night. A cooler day expected with highs in
the 60s. Chance for rain returns on Tuesday as moisture sags
southward as upper low drops into the Central Plains.
Accumulations are forecast to be light. Repeat performance each
day Thursday and again Friday as lobes of energy rotate around the
upper trof over the Great Lakes states and keep rounds of clouds,
showers, and cool temperatures over the area. May see some
improvement by the weekend as trof makes slow eastward progress
and temperatures could come back up into the 60s. Overnight lows
from the upper 30s on Wednesday night come into the lower 40s by
Thursday night and Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Winds have backed to the southeast and decreased into the 15 to
20 kt range with some higher gusts to near 30 kts. Expect winds to
lull for an hour or two then increase again after 02Z. Convection
chances are difficult to pin down for the terminals prior to 06Z
with increasing confidence after 09Z and lasting through the 17Z-
20Z time frame. Forecast soundings from the RUC and NAM suggest
low stratus around 2000 ft will form in the 09Z-11Z period and
last through 19Z-20Z before becoming VFR.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Focus on the period is the isolated severe storm potential early
this evening, followed by scattered severe storms being possible
early Sunday morning and afternoon.
A strong and windy afternoon across northeast Kansas as temperatures
warmed into the lower 80s. Wind gusts ahead of a deepening lee
trough ranged between 30 and 40 mph during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Dryline has setup across western Kansas as moisture
pulls northward, noted by upper 50s to near 60 degrees in central
Kansas, dropping to the low 20s in far western Kansas.
For late this afternoon into early this evening, short and long term
guidance is consistently indicating the dryline to bulge eastward
into north central Kansas. Strong convergence along and just ahead
of the boundary may provide just enough lift to erode the capping
inversion in place over far north central areas. Surface based CAPE
values increase to 1500 J/KG as effective bulk shear peaks near 45
kts. Strong boundary layer mixing by late afternoon lifts LCL
heights to around 4000 feet. Current thinking is that isolated
thunderstorms are possible over north central KS during the early
evening hours (generally after 6 PM). The higher LCL heights and
less than ideal moisture return leaves the tornado threat low for
this evening. Main threat with these thunderstorms will be the large
hail and localized damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to
track northeast into Nebraska through the evening hours. Conditions
remain dry elsewhere. Moisture return and increased cloud cover keep
lows mild in the middle to upper 60s.
Moisture advection increases overnight into Sunday as the strong
upper low lifts northeast through Colorado into northwest Kansas.
Widespread, broad ascent increases over southern into portions of
northeast Kansas generally after midnight as an 80 kt mid level jet
streak rounds the base of the wave. The increasing lift combined
with steepening mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE values approaching
3000 J/KG sets the stage for another cluster of thunderstorms to form
in the vicinity of southern Kansas, tracking eastward across
portions of north central and east central KS. Latest short term
guidance is not as aggressive with widespread precip developing
further north so have lowered pops to chance and kept highest
chances south of Interstate 70. Main threats with these storms would
be large hail and strong winds.
Uncertainty increases from early morning through the afternoon on
Sunday. Most guidance progs the dryline to surge eastward between 7
to 10 AM with showers and thunderstorms possible over the area,
remaining elevated in nature due to the strong surface inhibition in
place. A few storms may be severe with large hail and gusty winds
possible. Main limiting factor would be if these storms create a
stable surface layer, limiting surface based cells from developing
in the afternoon. Daytime heating and sunshine would allow the
surface instability to increase by afternoon, however the increasing
surface moisture should hold the overcast skies for much of the day.
Assuming convection impacts mainly areas just south of the CWA and
perhaps north central areas, much of east central KS would remain
precip free for a short time, resulting in a higher risk for severe
weather during the late morning into the afternoon. By 1 PM the
dryline is shown to be roughly along a line from Washington, to Clay
Center, and Abilene. Increased chances for thunderstorms to likely
east of this area as the weak capping inversion is able to erode as
surface based instability raises to over 2000 J/KG. Maximizing bulk
shear in excess of 50 kts suggest strong rotating updrafts,
including supercells. The parallel orientation of the winds to the
boundary suggest line segments with embedded areas of rotation are
also possible. Individual cells stand the best chance of a tornado
potential while other modes face a large hail and damaging wind
hazard. Best areas to be impacted by these storms are along and east
of highway 99 through the early evening as the storms and attendant
dryline push eastward.
In addition to the thunder, southerly winds remain gusty through
Sunday with sustained speeds between 20 and 25 mph with gusts near
35 mph. Dewpoints sharply falling over north central Kansas during
the late afternoon Sunday raise the fire danger to very high.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Line of storms moving through far eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon
may linger into the evening hours and have kept a chance far east
to accommodate that potential. Dryline and unstable air push
eastward, leaving area under northwest flow through the boundary
layer Monday and Monday night. A cooler day expected with highs in
the 60s. Chance for rain returns on Tuesday as moisture sags
southward as upper low drops into the Central Plains.
Accumulations are forecast to be light. Repeat performance each
day Thursday and again Friday as lobes of energy rotate around the
upper trof over the Great Lakes states and keep rounds of clouds,
showers, and cool temperatures over the area. May see some
improvement by the weekend as trof makes slow eastward progress
and temperatures could come back up into the 60s. Overnight lows
from the upper 30s on Wednesday night come into the lower 40s by
Thursday night and Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Winds have backed to the southeast and decreased into the 15 to
20 kt range with some higher gusts to near 30 kts. Expect winds to
lull for an hour or two then increase again after 02Z. Convection
chances are difficult to pin down for the terminals prior to 06Z
with increasing confidence after 09Z and lasting through the 17Z-
20Z time frame. Forecast soundings from the RUC and NAM suggest
low stratus around 2000 ft will form in the 09Z-11Z period and
last through 19Z-20Z before becoming VFR.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
An intense upper level storm system will move on shore across the
western US late this afternoon then move into the great basin and
desert southwest through Tonight.
The southwesterly flow at mid levels will increase across the
central Rockies causing a lee surface trough to deepen across the
central and southern plains. This will cause South-southwesterly
winds to increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH through the
day Friday. The southerly winds along with deeper mixing will help
High temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
CWA.
Tonight, deeper gulf moisture will begin to be transported northeast
on an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. Isentropic lift will
begin to increase across the southern and eastern counties of the
CWA after midnight and isolated elevated thunderstorms may begin to
form around 9Z and last into the mid morning hours of Saturday.
However the 6Z run of the NAM model now shows the more favorable
isentropic lift developing east of the CWA after 12Z. MUCAPES are
forecasted to increase to 500 to 1000 j/kg along and south of I-35.
Effective vertical wind shear above the LFC to the EL will also
increase to 30 to 35 KTS across eastern KS by 12Z SAT. If elevated
thunderstorms develop late Tonight, then some of the elevated
thunderstorms may produce quarter size hail along and south of I-35.
Any elevated thunderstorms north of I-35 that manage to develop
Tonight, where the MUCAPE will only be 200-600 J/kg, may produce
small hail.
Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 50s given
southerly winds and low-level moisture advection through the night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Some early day convection may linger across southeast portions of
the county warning area and will maintain low end pops across the
eastern 1/3 of the cwa in the morning before convection chances
shift off to the east. For the remainder of the day...a
strengthening elevated mixed layer should suppress convective
potential over most of the cwa except in the far western counties
near/just beyond peak heating where highs in the upper 80s and
convergence may be erode/breach capping inversion with isolated
or scattered convection. Otherwise a very warm and breezy day across
the area with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s.
For Saturday night...the main upper level trough will begin to
rotate out into the high plains of southeast CO with another weaker
shortwave moving northeast across the cwa in southwest flow aloft.
This continues to be slightly slower than previous runs...and with
the delay in stronger forcing aloft and retreating dryline to the
west...uncertainty still exists as to how the severe convection that
forms off the dryline late in the day will be sustained as it moves
northeastward towards/into the cwa through the evening/overnight.
Other convection...mainly elevated in association with the weaker
shortwave...should develop overnight as llvl jet also increases.
This convection could pose a large hail threat. Will maintain higher
end chance pops.
The most concentrated and potentially strongest convection appears
to be on Sunday as the main shortwave lobe over southwest
KS/northwest OK region at 12z Sunday...lifts northeastward across KS
through the day. Moderate instability develops just ahead of the
dry slot across the eastern half of the cwa by midday and Bulk
shear dramatically increases west to east as the upper trough and
associated jet lifts out across the area with all modes of severe
weather possible...although severe wind and hail would be primary.
The dry slot spreads further east of the remainder of the cwa into
the evening with rapidly decreasing chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather.
The upper low will pivot eastward slowly and traverse the cwa
through into Monday night and with cooler air and circulation
aloft... could see enough destabilization to warrant the mention
of thunder through the daytime hours Monday. Otherwise will
maintain shower potential through mid week as main upper trough
and then secondary northwest flow shortwaves eventually move
across the area.
After high temps in the 70s on Sunday...will cool highs into mainly
the 60s Monday....then mainly the 50s and lower 60s on through
Thursday. Lows should generally be in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VFR conditions prevail at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Wind gusts diminish this
evening with short term guidance developing scattered TS 12-18Z near
KTOP/KFOE. Inserted VCTS with some uncertainty on coverage and
placement of activity. South winds back overnight to the southwest
increasing from 12-18Z between 13 kts and 17 kts sustained with
gusts near 26 kts. Low confidence in LLWS developing overnight as
winds up to 1500 ft are near 40 kts. Will continue to monitor
surface wind speeds in case they weaken lower than current
forecast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 912 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Morning sounding at KTOP revealed ample amount of subsidence air
throughout the column. Soundings from the RUC and NAM indicate
strong mixing through 800 MB by late afternoon, bring RH values
lower to the upper teens and near 20 percent. Wind gusts across
the north central areas average between 15 and 20 mph sustained
with gusts up to 30 mph during the late afternoon. Fire weather
partners agreed that the fuels remain critical at this time and will
go ahead with a Red Flag Warning for north central and portions of
northeast Kansas today. Please see the product for more
information.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-
020>022-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
931 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.Update to Fire Weather Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
An intense upper level storm system will move on shore across the
western US late this afternoon then move into the great basin and
desert southwest through Tonight.
The southwesterly flow at mid levels will increase across the
central Rockies causing a lee surface trough to deepen across the
central and southern plains. This will cause South-southwesterly
winds to increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH through the
day Friday. The southerly winds along with deeper mixing will help
High temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
CWA.
Tonight, deeper gulf moisture will begin to be transported northeast
on an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. Isentropic lift will
begin to increase across the southern and eastern counties of the
CWA after midnight and isolated elevated thunderstorms may begin to
form around 9Z and last into the mid morning hours of Saturday.
However the 6Z run of the NAM model now shows the more favorable
isentropic lift developing east of the CWA after 12Z. MUCAPES are
forecasted to increase to 500 to 1000 j/kg along and south of I-35.
Effective vertical wind shear above the LFC to the EL will also
increase to 30 to 35 KTS across eastern KS by 12Z SAT. If elevated
thunderstorms develop late Tonight, then some of the elevated
thunderstorms may produce quarter size hail along and south of I-35.
Any elevated thunderstorms north of I-35 that manage to develop
Tonight, where the MUCAPE will only be 200-600 J/kg, may produce
small hail.
Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 50s given
southerly winds and low-level moisture advection through the night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Some early day convection may linger across southeast portions of
the county warning area and will maintain low end pops across the
eastern 1/3 of the cwa in the morning before convection chances
shift off to the east. For the remainder of the day...a
strengthening elevated mixed layer should suppress convective
potential over most of the cwa except in the far western counties
near/just beyond peak heating where highs in the upper 80s and
convergence may be erode/breach capping inversion with isolated
or scattered convection. Otherwise a very warm and breezy day across
the area with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s.
For Saturday night...the main upper level trough will begin to
rotate out into the high plains of southeast CO with another weaker
shortwave moving northeast across the cwa in southwest flow aloft.
This continues to be slightly slower than previous runs...and with
the delay in stronger forcing aloft and retreating dryline to the
west...uncertainty still exists as to how the severe convection that
forms off the dryline late in the day will be sustained as it moves
northeastward towards/into the cwa through the evening/overnight.
Other convection...mainly elevated in association with the weaker
shortwave...should develop overnight as llvl jet also increases.
This convection could pose a large hail threat. Will maintain higher
end chance pops.
The most concentrated and potentially strongest convection appears
to be on Sunday as the main shortwave lobe over southwest
KS/northwest OK region at 12z Sunday...lifts northeastward across KS
through the day. Moderate instability develops just ahead of the
dry slot across the eastern half of the cwa by midday and Bulk
shear dramatically increases west to east as the upper trough and
associated jet lifts out across the area with all modes of severe
weather possible...although severe wind and hail would be primary.
The dry slot spreads further east of the remainder of the cwa into
the evening with rapidly decreasing chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather.
The upper low will pivot eastward slowly and traverse the cwa
through into Monday night and with cooler air and circulation
aloft... could see enough destabilization to warrant the mention
of thunder through the daytime hours Monday. Otherwise will
maintain shower potential through mid week as main upper trough
and then secondary northwest flow shortwaves eventually move
across the area.
After high temps in the 70s on Sunday...will cool highs into mainly
the 60s Monday....then mainly the 50s and lower 60s on through
Thursday. Lows should generally be in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Patchy shallow ground fog was noted at KTOP and should mix out an
hour after sunrise. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. There may be some isolated thunderstorms with scattered
STRATOCU after 10Z SAT. If winds diminish later tonight then
moderate to strong LLWS between the SFC and 1500 FT may develop at
the TAF sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 912 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Morning sounding at KTOP revealed ample amount of subsidence air
throughout the column. Soundings from the RUC and NAM indicate
strong mixing through 800 MB by late afternoon, bring RH values
lower to the upper teens and near 20 percent. Wind gusts across
the north central areas average between 15 and 20 mph sustained
with gusts up to 30 mph during the late afternoon. Fire weather
partners agreed that the fuels remain critical at this time and will
go ahead with a Red Flag Warning for north central and portions of
northeast Kansas today. Please see the product for more
information.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-
020>022-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
128 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
Compact upper vorticity maximum is now transversing Missouri this
evening. In advance of the wave, arcing area of convection now is
passing through the Ohio River/Mississippi River confluence region
and into western KY. Based on the latest radar imagery, this
activity should be approaching our western counties by 04Z and into
the I-65 corridor by 06Z...reaching the I-75 corridor by 09-10Z.
Overall, the convection has been steadily weakening as the
convection has been running into a more stable and less moist
environment. Nonetheless, showers and scattered thunderstorms will
impact most areas overnight. Once the arc of convection passes,
we`ll see a brief pause in the rainfall then more scattered showers
are likely as the actual vorticity maximum passes overhead, just
before sunrise. Severe weather threat looks very low at this time
as the dynamics and instability are not all that impressive. Brief
heavy rains and some gusty winds will be possible as the storms move
through the region overnight.
The current forecast has this well covered quite well. Only some
minor adjustments to precipitation timing was made with this
evening`s update.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
In the near term, afternoon visible satellite imagery shows high
level cirrus clouds progressing northeast across central KY and
southern IN, in advance of a shortwave to our west, with surface
temperatures warming steadily to near 70 east and lower and mid 70s
west. Temperatures will continue to rise a couple/few more degrees
through late afternoon before falling back this evening.
Pronounced shortwave over KS/OK at this time will move steadily east
tonight accompanied by an increase in low-level moisture and
southerly winds, which will effectively limit/end our evening fall
in surface temperatures overnight. Surface winds should become gusty
overnight. Currently, this system is causing widespread convective
development from western MO to eastern OK and AR. Models are in good
agreement bringing these storms in a band into central KY and
southern IN late this evening and overnight. The 15z HRRR and 12z
in-house mesoscale models bring the leading edge of the convection
to our western forecast area border around 04 UTC.
Looking at model soundings, boundary layer cools this evening but
steep lapse rates and elevated instability remain if lifting a
parcel from about 900-950 mb. This will support continuation of
convection as axis of precipitation moves across our area,
especially western part of forecast area. With increasing winds at
925 and 850 mb, there is a chance that greater momentum air could
mix down to surface and create a few strong wind gusts with the
strongest cells (again, more likely in western sections), but
presence of weak-to-moderate nocturnal boundary layer inversion
should keep strongest winds aloft, unable to penetrate to surface.
After this band passes, there could be a brief lull in precip, but
models bring another area of moisture through from early to mid
morning (from west to east) associated with the actual mid-level
trough axis and surface front. As a result, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected during that time, with models
again indicating presence of some instability.
Front passes through the area first half of Friday. Winds behind the
boundary will become quite gusty from the west-northwest around 30
mph. Morning clouds and lingering showers will move off to the east
followed quickly by a clearing trend. Highs Friday afternoon should
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, depending on how rapdily skies
clear. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows again down in the
40s in most locations.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
Saturday - Sunday...
Heights will rise through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge
axis approaches and then slides through. Meanwhile, a cold front
will sag southward across southern Ohio and into central IN,
stalling by Saturday evening as it becomes parallel to the upper
level flow. Technically, it would be a back door cold front if it
were to make progress through the area, but it looks to stall just
to our north. Either way, the boundary will be moisture starved and
we should stay on the warm side of it. This will lead to a dry and
warm weekend. Expect highs on Saturday in the upper 70s north to low
80s south. Lows Saturday night should dip into the lower 50s. Should
start to see an gradual increase in mid and upper level clouds on
Sunday as the ridge axis starts to slide east, however 1000-850
thicknesses and 850 mb temps will support a 2-3 degree increase from
Saturday. Therefore, have gone with mostly lower 80s on Sunday. A
few Bluegrass or southern IN counties may stay confined to upper 70s.
Will continue to leave the slightest of chances for a shower or
storm in our far western tier or two of counties late Sunday
afternoon, however bulk of precip will not arrive until Sunday night
onward.
Sunday Night - Tuesday...
By Sunday night, blocking upper ridge axis will be off to our east
with an impressive closed upper low over the central Plains.
Southwesterly flow through a deep layer will overspread the Ohio
Valley, including a 40 knot low level jet nosing in. The
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be just off to our northeast
with expansive mid level deformation aloft. By dawn on Monday,
expect scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms mainly along
and west of I-65. These likely shower and t-storm chances will then
encompass the entire CWA on Monday. Tough to tell how well we
destabilize in this environment, but it appears that a stronger to
possibly severe storm threat will be conditional upon
destabilization, especially along and west of I-65.
Another threat of stronger to severe storms may move in later Monday
night into early Tuesday as the exit region of another impulse
rotating around the upper low ejects out of the southern Plains.
Again, strength of storms would be conditional upon destabilization.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms could then plague the area
again later Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Will continue to monitor threat for stronger storms to start the new
work week, but will also keep an eye on the threat for periods of
heavy rain and flooding. With repeated rounds of t-storms possible
and PWATs jumping up around 2 std deviations above normal for this
time of year, flooding could become a concern. Tough to judge
temperatures during this time, solid reading in the 70s seem
reasonable each day on the warm side of the boundary and warm
advective flow. Obviously, convection will be the deciding factor.
Lows will be mild during this time, at least in the low 60s in most
spots.
Tuesday Night - Thursday...
We begin to transition to a cooler period by the middle and end of
the week as the wobbling upper low and its associated surface
reflection slide into the Midwest. Precipitation chances look to
become more scattered in nature during this time with thunder
chances becoming less likely. These days will likely not be
wash-outs, but will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler. Look
for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s and lows in the low and
mid 40s by Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2014
Surface low pressure over northern Illinois this hour will bring
deteriorating conditions into our terminals for the next several
hours. Some light rains have preceded a couple of bands of
thunderstorms that have been waning. However, additional storms are
forming closer to a vortmax now entering Western KY. Have gone close
to LAV guidance for timing the best chance for storms to affect the
terminals, but in general will have showers in the vicinity until we
can clear this forcing by daybreak. Low clouds will linger in the
wake of the rain for a few more hours, but model time height
sections indicate clear skies this afternoon.
As for winds, we have several boundaries in the area now, so they
will be somewhat variable until the main cold front gets through mid
to late morning. High pressure then will build in from the south
tonight, bringing light and variable winds.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Updated forecast to account for precipitation trends. A large area
of showers and thunderstorms continues to spread across the forecast
area this evening. The entire region should have experienced a good
soaking rain by midnight. Also kept higher rain chances over the
northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area late this evening through the early
pre-dawn hours Friday to account for greater elevated instability
associated with the passing mid level trough. With the low levels
slow to moisten up and deep layer shear lacking, severe storms have
not materialized. The threat has all but ended at this time, though
an isolated strong storm still cannot be completely discounted.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.
The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.
Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.
The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.
The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.
As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.
Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.
From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 15-16Z...
otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 06-09Z
and between 09-14Z at KEVV/KOWB. Gusty southerly winds at 10-12
knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest
during the night with speeds slightly decreasing, veer around to
the northwest between 11-13Z aob 15 knots, then variable aob 5
knots after 00Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOUND ITS WAY TO THE
COAST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE A RETREAT BACK TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF WILL FURTHER MOVE THE
FRONT BEYOND AEX LATE TNITE. THE REINTRODUCTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION LATE TNITE. MIXING
SHOULD PRECLUDE THIS FOG FROM LOWERING VIS BELOW MVFR. WINDS
SHOULD BE VARIABLE TODAY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TNITE...MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FRESHENED UP FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 50 ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A BLEND OF LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z
ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THIS DRIER AIR. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MVFR/LOWER CLOUD COVER
ACCOMPANYING PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHROUDS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE SOUTH HELPING PUSH CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE
CLOUDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE
SITES BY LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER A PLEASANT FLYING DAY SHOULD
LINGER WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PASSING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
FORECAST...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE THIS.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HINT AT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO TIME SHOWER AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DID REQUIRE A REDUCTION IN
POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR OF 60KT PLUS AND HELICITY VALUES GREATER
THE 250. WHILE THE WORST OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF THE AREA...ABOVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH IT IN
THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
A TREND THAT STARTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY CONTINUES
WITH THE OOZ GUIDANCE IN THAT THE LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY SLOWS DOWN...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN WE WERE
THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE...THUS KEEPING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW...BUT ONCE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CAN BE BETTER
ASCERTAINED...WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE POPS SOMETIMES OVER THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
WITH EVERYTHING SLOWING DOWN AND THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT LOOKING
TO BE DIMINISHED DID HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING SOMETIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BRAZZELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 64 81 68 81 / 20 10 10 10 20
KBPT 83 65 80 69 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
KAEX 82 59 84 66 83 / 0 10 10 10 30
KLFT 83 64 82 68 80 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1033 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FRESHENED UP FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 50 ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A BLEND OF LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z
ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THIS DRIER AIR. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MVFR/LOWER CLOUD COVER
ACCOMPANYING PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHROUDS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE SOUTH HELPING PUSH CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE
CLOUDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE
SITES BY LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER A PLEASANT FLYING DAY SHOULD
LINGER WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PASSING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
FORECAST...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE THIS.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HINT AT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO TIME SHOWER AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DID REQUIRE A REDUCTION IN
POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR OF 60KT PLUS AND HELICITY VALUES GREATER
THE 250. WHILE THE WORST OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF THE AREA...ABOVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH IT IN
THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
A TREND THAT STARTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY CONTINUES
WITH THE OOZ GUIDANCE IN THAT THE LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY SLOWS DOWN...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN WE WERE
THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE...THUS KEEPING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW...BUT ONCE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CAN BE BETTER
ASCERTAINED...WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE POPS SOMETIMES OVER THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
WITH EVERYTHING SLOWING DOWN AND THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT LOOKING
TO BE DIMINISHED DID HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING SOMETIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BRAZZELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 64 81 68 / 20 10 10 10
KBPT 83 65 80 69 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 82 59 84 66 / 0 10 10 10
KLFT 83 64 82 68 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT
OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT
IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC
ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z.
THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE
UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S
NE...TO AROUND 70 SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN.
TODAYS MODELS TAKE MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH & WEST OF
THE MTS TUE / WED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DID. FORECAST BECOMES RATHER
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE INITIAL COOL WEDGE THAT SETS UP TUES WITH
A SECONDARY EAST COAST SHOOTER DEVELOPS ALLOWING A TRIPLE POINT TO
MOVE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC ERLY WED. WHAT THIS CHANGE DOES IS ALLOW
THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO VA PULLING WARMER & MORE
HUMID AIR NORTH (BUT HOW FAR GIVEN PTNTL PIEDMONT WEDGE???). WILL
BE ADDING CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS SERN SECTIONS WED AFTRN.
THIS COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES
NE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THURSDAY TAPPING SOME OF THE GULF MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH. UPSHOT...A RATHER WET PERIOD TUES THROUGH THUSRDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS. BEST CHCS FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO AHEAD AND ALONG
THE COLD FRNT WED NIGHT AND THURS. DRYING OUT FRI.
HIGHS TUE L-M60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH. HIGHS WED/THU/FRI U60S-M70S.
LOWS MON NITE U40S-M50S. OTW...GNRLY 50-60.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN
SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY
SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY / RIVERS / CURRITUCK NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE BAY...SO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THERE. EXPT ABT
A 2-4 HR PRD OF GUSTINESS (UP TO 30 KTS) ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS
SAT AFTRN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS OUT NR 20 NM
SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS WTRS
SAT AFTRN ALLOWING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TO DMNSH
THRU SAT EVENING.
NEXT FRNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT PRODUCING A 3-6 HR SURGE OF CAA
SEEN DOWN THE BAY LATE SAT NIGHT...STRNGST OVR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN WNDS BCMG NE SUNDAY THEN E BY
MONDAY. HIGH PROB FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WNDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG
WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT
OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT
IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC
ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z.
THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE
UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S
NE...TO AROUND 70 SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN.
TODAYS MODELS TAKE MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH & WEST OF
THE MTS TUE / WED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DID. FORECAST BECOMES RATHER
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE INITIAL COOL WEDGE THAT SETS UP TUES WITH
A SECONDARY EAST COAST SHOOTER DEVELOPS ALLOWING A TRIPLE POINT TO
MOVE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC ERLY WED. WHAT THIS CHANGE DOES IS ALLOW
THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO VA PULLING WARMER & MORE
HUMID AIR NORTH (BUT HOW FAR GIVEN PTNTL PIEDMONT WEDGE???). WILL
BE ADDING CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS SERN SECTIONS WED AFTRN.
THIS COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES
NE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THURSDAY TAPPING SOME OF THE GULF MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH. UPSHOT...A RATHER WET PERIOD TUES THROUGH THUSRDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS. BEST CHCS FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO AHEAD AND ALONG
THE COLD FRNT WED NIGHT AND THURS. DRYING OUT FRI.
HIGHS TUE L-M60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH. HIGHS WED/THU/FRI U60S-M70S.
LOWS MON NITE U40S-M50S. OTW...GNRLY 50-60.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN
SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY
SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY / RIVERS / CURRITUCK NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE BAY...SO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THERE. EXPT ABT
A 2-4 HR PRD OF GUSTINESS (UP TO 30 KTS) ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS
SAT AFTRN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS OUT NR 20 NM
SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS WTRS
SAT AFTRN ALLOWING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TO DMNSH
THRU SAT EVENING.
NEXT FRNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT PRODUCING A 3-6 HR SURGE OF CAA
SEEN DOWN THE BAY LATE SAT NIGHT...STRNGST OVR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN WNDS BCMG NE SUNDAY THEN E BY
MONDAY. HIGH PROB FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WNDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG
WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
318 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT
OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT
IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC
ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z.
THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE
UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S
NE...TO AROUND 70 SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PRD
NEXT WEEK. TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL
MON AFTN WHEN THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINS
TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORN
DRY AS HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH IS SLOW TO RETREAT. LOWS M40S-L50S.
MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM NATIONS MID
SECTION MONDAY TO THE OHIO/TN VLLY WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SCNDARY LOW DVLPNG OVR THE MID ATLNTC REGION THURS WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING DEEPEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY LAGGING UPR LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THIS PRD. PRIME OF WHICH WILL BE
THE LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PROGGED TO HOVER SOMEWHERE ARND
THE NC/VA BORDER TUES THRU THURS. THE UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL MAKE
A PROBLEMATIC FORECAST FOR TMPS...WIND DIRECTION AND PCPN TYPE
(I.E. CONVECTIVE VS STRATI FORM). BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY THAT
THE TUES THRU WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WETTEST...SO HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THEN. OTW...KEPT PCPN SHOWERS CWA WIDE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. COULD VRY WELL END
UP BEING MORE OF A STRATI FORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IF A
COOL E-NE WEDGE SETS UP AS WELL AS HAVING TO ADD THUNDER TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION FARTHER NORTH.
ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECT A COOL AND WET PRD. HIGHS GNRLLY FROM THE
L-M60S NORTHERN HALF OF FA TO U60S-L70S SOUTHERN HALF. LOWS U40S-
M50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN
SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY
SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF THE CST THROUGH THE MRNG HRS...
RESULTING IN LGT/VRB WNDS BECOMING SSE. LO PRES FM THE W
APPROACHES/DRAWS CLOSER BY THIS AFTN. SSE WNDS INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WTRS...(LEADING TO SCAS ON PORTIONS OF THE
RIVERS AND ON THE BAY). LO PRES EXITS THE CST AFT MDNGT TNGT...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A WINDSHIFT TO THE WNW AND A SURGE IN SPEEDS (ESP
OVR THE BAY/RIVERS AND FAR NRN OCN WTRS). CONTG SCAS ON THE BAY
THROUGH SAT MRNG...ADDING SCAS ON NRN TWO OCN ZONES FM LT TNGT
THROUGH SAT MRNG. LWRG SPEEDS BY SAT AFTN...CONTG THROUGH SAT EVE.
A CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS SAT NGT...RESULTING IN NNW WNDS INCRSG TO
ARND SCAS (ESP NRN PORTIONS). HI PROB FOR A PROLONGED PD OF ONSHORE
WNDS BEGINNING LATE IN THE WKND AND CONTG INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR SUNDAY. CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
IT WILL LIKELY CAUSE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MID ATLANTIC IS IN S-SELY FLOW
AT THE SFC ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE
30S IN NRN MD TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL VA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS
REACHING I-95 CORRIDOR AFTER 2PM. 12Z IAD RAOB IS STILL DRY WITH
A PWAT OF 0.63 INCHES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES DEWPTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE THE TREND ALOFT
AS WELL AS A MOIST S-SW LLJ MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURATING THE COLUMN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TODAY AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING. PER MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS STILL LACKING BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND UPDRAFTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE LOW LCLS AND 0-0.5KM SHEAR OF
30KTS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FURTHER NORTH LOWER DEWPTS AND LESS
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. SOME WARMER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...CAUSING MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 70S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT...CAUSING A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY.
A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO IT
WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE A WARM AFTERNOON. A DEEP MIXING LAYER
ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME AREAS
IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TOPPING OFF AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...A CU DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH SKIES TURNING OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR.
AS THE LOW SPIRALS ACRS THE NERN CONUS SAT EVE...THE CDFNT WL SWING
ACRS THE CWFA. BAROCLINICITY/INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS TO BE FVRBL TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LTL QPF ALONG/AHD OF THE BNDRY. A FEW SPRINKLES...
MAYBE? MDL FIELDS PICKING UP ON THIS MORE THAN MOS. WL CONT
THOUGHT PROCESS FM THE AFTN...CARRYING 30 POPS ACRS SRN MD/NRN VA
PIEDMONT ELY EVNG. AFTER THAT...SAT NGT WL BE ALL ABT THE CAA.
SKIES SHUD BE CLRG QUITE EFFICIENTLY IN NW FLOW AS DEWPTS DROP
INTO THE 30S. DIURNALLY...ITS NOT TIMED APPROPRIATELY FOR MIXING
THRU THE NGT. HV A GUSTY EVNG /MDL SNDGS SUGGEST G20KT/ BEFORE
DCPLG STARTS TO TAKE HOLD.
RDGG WL BUILD INTO CWFA SUN-SUN NGT. H8 TEMPS WL BE COOLER THAN
SAT...BY AS MUCH AS 6C. HV MAXT ARND 10 DEGF LWR...IN LINE W/ A MDL
BLEND. CLR SKIES DURING THE DAY WL FADE BY NGT AS MID-LVL MSTR
ADVECTS THIS WAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS HAS 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BLDG OVR AREA ERY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MVG
OFSHR TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY CHCS OF WETNESS DURG THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME - AREAS OF SUPPORTING VORT ENTERING RGN TUESDAY
AFTN...WEDNESDAY MRNG THROUGH THURSDAY MRNG AND AGAIN FRIDAY MRNG.
SEEMS HPC ENSEMBLE IS MVS SYS E ARND 12 HRS FASTER THAN GFS/ECMWF.
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WL REMAIN CENTERED OVR NRN PLAINS/GT LAKES AREA
THROUGH THE PD. EURO IS IMPLYING A CAD WEDGE WL DVLP WED. THIS
WOULD HELP IN KEEPING TEMPS BLO NRML...PSBLY HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S!
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR ANTICIPATED REST OF THE WKND. HWVR...THE PTNL EXISTS FOR LOW
CIGS/VSBYS DURG THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WK DUE TO RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH.
A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS AND A GALE
WARNING MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CDFNT CLRS WATERS SAT NGT. WNDS SVRL THSND FT OFF DECK WUD SUPPORT
GLW...BUT NOT SURE THE MIXING WL BE PRESENT. ITLL DEPEND UPON HOW
QUICKLY COLD AIR MOVES ACRS WATERS...TO IMPROVE LAPSE RATES. AM
CARRYING A SOLID SCA INSTEAD. GLW PSBL CAN REMAIN IN THE HWO.
SHUD HV A CPL QUIET DAYS AFTER THAT /SUN-MON/. CONDS LOOKING UNSTLD
THEREAFTER.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO SHARPLY INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. SINCE THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICAL NORMS...MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DURING THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS.
THE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT
WILL BE STRONG. THEREFORE...ANY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
537-539>543.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS SASK. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
N TO NE FLOW INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP SHOWED A CLEARING TREND
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND DAYTIME MIXING HELPING TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH...DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME LIGHT EAST WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TOWARD THE LOWER 20S INLAND NORTH AND TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE WI
BORDER.
SUN...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WAA PCPN AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH UPPER MI AS IT
SPREADS THROUGH WI. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT ERLY LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE BELOW 750 MB...PER FCST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT THAT THE PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI AND
THE KEWEENAW...THE EAST WIND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
UPPER LOW BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD LUMBERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC LOW NEARBY THE UPPER LOW CENTER
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING ALOFT ON ITS EDGES
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER INSTIGATORS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A STRUGGLE FOR THE MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WHERE
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUN INTO THE SFC HIGH
AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR A LOT
OF MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY
AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...THINK LOWER SFC-H85 RH OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO ISOLD SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR AREAS IN THE
LOWER 40S ON MONDAY...BUT INLAND AREAS CLOSER TO WI BORDER AND OVER
THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE 50S WITH BETTER MIXING
HEIGHTS UP TO H85. POSSIBLE THAT MID 50S COULD OCCUR OVER FAR EAST IF
CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARRIVE...UPPER LOW
WILL BE EXERTING ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. EAST WINDS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS IN
ALL AREAS WELL BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS THIS PERIOD UPR 30S TO LOW
40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE 40S INLAND. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION COMES
IN TWO WAVES. FIRST MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SUPPORTED BY INITIAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS STEADIER
PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO MAINLY DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. PTYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE INITIALLY AS H85 TEMPS BLO ZERO OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AND SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING POINT TO POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RIGHT ON THE 1300-1305M LINE WOULD INDICATE DIFFERENCE
BTWN SEEING RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX WILL BE DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION
HEIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT
FOR AREAS IN THE RAIN/SNOW ZONE...BUT PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE
MORE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMS ON
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL CWA. ANY MIX WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTN AS RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LIFTING IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS ALSO WHEN MAIN SFC LOW ARRIVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS HEADING EAST BY
THAT TIME...THERE IS HINT OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
UPR LAKES AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. KIND OF EARLY TO BE
LOOKING AT TROWAL SPECIFICS BUT THAT MAY BE WHAT MODELS ARE KEYING
ON TO BOOST QPF TOTALS ALONG TRACK OF H85 LOW TRACK. UPSLOPE NNW
FLOW MAY ALSO INCREASE TOTALS OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT TOTAL PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS...MAY REACH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH MORE PTYPE
ISSUES AGAIN AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR GRADUALLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SFC. H85 TEMPS DROP BACK BLO 0C SO
COULD SEE MORE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE WEST HALF OF CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNRAVELLING UPPER/SFC LOWS ONLY SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY /BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE/...BUT GRADUALLY POPS WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY
THAT TIME. CONSENSUS MAX TEMPS CONTINUING TO STAY BLO NORMAL ARE NOT
NECESSARILY DESIRED...BUT APPEAR REASONABLE TO CLOSE THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MADE FEW CHANGES TO CONSENSUS TEMPS/POPS/WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE TO
35KTS OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EAST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO
TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO THU AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO
AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO
ADD TO THE RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE INCREASING WINDS
TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND THE STEADILY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTHERN MEXICO. STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL DAY...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
RADAR HAS BEEN QUIET IN TERMS OF SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
TODAY...HOWEVER...SINCE 2030Z THE ADVANCING HEIGHT FALLS AND DAYTIME
HEATING APPEARS TO BE PROMOTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN AREAS TO
OUR SOUTH. CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER JET HAS BEEN ADVANCING A
STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THAT HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP ON ABR/MPX/FGF RADARS
ARE TIED TO AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK 700-500MB FGEN...WITH LITTLE
HOPE OF ANY RAIN REACHING THE GROUND BEFORE 03-04Z /ESPECIALLY WITH
THE STRONG/DRY EASTERLY FLOW. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THE FLOW FROM
925-850MB INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ADVECTS MUCH MORE
MOISTURE INTO MINNESOTA. THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
TACT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE ADVANCING MOISTURE
LOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE
ADVANCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE RAIN DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY
HEAVY IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT HIGH POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS BETTER IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
THE ADVANCE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THE SURFACE INHIBITION WILL BE STRONG...BUT THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE 0.25-1.25" HAIL. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS THE RESULT OF AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
40-50KTS WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE OBVIOUSLY WON`T
MIX WELL ENOUGH TO REALIZE THOSE WINDS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE HAS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR OR GREATER THAN 30 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. EVEN THE LESS WIND FAVORED AREAS OF
WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN WILL SEE A STRONG DRIVING EAST WIND
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
.HYDRO...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RISE ON
LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS IN EACH PARTICULAR BASIN. THE RIVERS IN WISCONSIN CAN ONE TO
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
FLOODING. WE MAY END UP WITH MINOR FLOODING OR EVEN A SLIM CHANCE AT
MODERATE FLOODING /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHIPPEWA RIVER/ IF THE RIVER
BASIN ENDS UP WITH MORE THAN 3 INCHES. IN ORDER TO GET MORE THAN 3
INCHES...WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL NEED TO GET HARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DOESN`T APPEAR LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. IF WE GET TO MONDAY MORNING WITH
LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES...THE RIVERS SHOULD BE FINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
BY THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT ROLLS AROUND...THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING OVER A WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KFRM AND KMCW
SHOW AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 650MB...WITH A WARM
NOSE CENTERED JUST ABOVE 900MB. PARCELS LIFTED FROM THIS WARM NOSE
WILL EXPERIENCE UP TO 1000J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THE
CONFUSED WIND FIELD DOUBLES BACK ON ITSELF WITHIN THIS LAYER SO
THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILE APPEARS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER.
NONE THE LESS...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS SHOWN IN THE 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACTUALLY
INCREASE THE CAPE PROFILE OVERNIGHT THROUGH DYNAMIC
DESTABILIZATION SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HAVE ONE PERSON DEDICATED
TO THE RADAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE 0-1 HELICITY IS DANGEROUSLY LARGE...ON THE
ORDER OF 400M2/S2...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE REALIZED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS
MN/WI DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL STABILITY.
THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...TOGETHER WITH THE
DURATION...WILL PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDWEST...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AS CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS INCREASE THE LOCALIZED TOTALS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE CARRIED HIGH POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAIN IN PLACE AND
AREAS OF ENHANCES VORTICITY ROTATE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MORE OF A
CONTINUOUS DRIZZLE/RAIN WITH OVERCAST SKIES...AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LESS THEN A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE GENERAL TREND TOWARD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS TO
BE INTACT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WHEN WE/LL SEE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES OF PCPN OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS... BUT TRENDED TOWARD
LATEST HRRR AND CAM SOLUTIONS. THESE SUGGEST CURRENTLY LINGERING
PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT... WITH
REDEVELOPMENT AND BLOSSOMING OF PCPN OVER THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING WORK INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. THE REAL QUESTION
THEN BECOMES WHETHER AND WHEN WE/LL SEE GAPS IN THE PCPN... AND
WHEN LOWER CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE TO STAY. WAS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
IN HANGING ONTO HIGHER CEILINGS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST... MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM... BUT COULD CERTAINLY
SEE THAT NOT OCCURRING SHOULD THE LOW LEVEL MOISTEN MORE QUICKLY
THAN SUGGESTED. COULD ALSO SEE LOWER VISIBILITIES... BUT MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON PCPN RATES AND DEGREE OF BR WHICH OCCURS WITH THE PCPN.
KMSP...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL TRENDS AND CHANGES...
BUT TIMING OF PCPN WAVES COULD EASILY DIFFER BY SEVERAL HOURS...
AND ULTIMATE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BE WORSE THAN INDICATED A
BIT SOONER. STRONG EAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO
BE A GOOD BET... BUT THE GUSTINESS IS STILL QUESTIONABLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR POSSIBLE. PERIODS
OF RAIN... CHANCE OF THUNDER. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING
NORTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN... CHANCE OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WIND 10
TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
NORTH.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RAIN LIKELY.
NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RISE ON
LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS IN EACH PARTICULAR BASIN. THE RIVERS IN WISCONSIN CAN HANDLE
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE THREAT
FOR FLOODING. WE MAY END UP WITH MINOR FLOODING OR EVEN A SLIM
CHANCE AT MODERATE FLOODING /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHIPPEWA RIVER/
IF THE RIVER BASIN ENDS UP WITH MORE THAN 3 INCHES. IN ORDER TO
GET MORE THAN 3 INCHES...WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL NEED TO GET HARD
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DOESN`T APPEAR LIKELY WITH
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. IF WE GET
TO MONDAY MORNING WITH LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES...THE RIVERS
SHOULD BE FINE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-
054>058-064>066-073.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ067-074>077-
082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west
to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the
southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge
axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into
next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and
lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next
week.
The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture
into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk
this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West
Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate
temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to
even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient
tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind
gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer
moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later
today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this
afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn
mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag
criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit
the fire danger risk for most areas.
A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as
heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE
into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a
sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection
may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE
values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level
lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a
few hours Saturday morning.
Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the
Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally,
morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning
hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front
develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused
further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the
Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place
that should prevent any surface based convection from forming
through the daytime hours of Saturday.
Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of
storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for
convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas
and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over
NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later
convective development into the evening hours across the Southern
Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the
Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s
looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of
elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards
daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE,
elevated hail producing supercells would be possible.
Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and
Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward.
Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should
continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty
on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the
CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated
as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting
the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we
may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across
the northern CWA.
The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday
afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and
destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe
convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off
the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection,
with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend
timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast
moving into the weekend.
Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming
vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s
forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for
convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given
the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on
Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional
convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected
to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for
below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the daylight and much, if
not all, of overnight hours. Southwest wind will persist through the
day backing to the south late tonight as a surface high slides
farther east. As this occurs moisture, and clouds, will start to move
back in early Saturday morning. This will likely result in VFR low to
mid-level clouds moving in Saturday morning that might be
accompanied by some thunderstorms. Confidence in coverage for
morning storms is low though. Otherwise, expect the low level jet,
which will bring the moisture and storms, will also result in a
potential issue with low level wind shear Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west
to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the
southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge
axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into
next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and
lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next
week.
The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture
into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk
this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West
Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate
temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to
even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient
tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind
gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer
moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later
today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this
afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn
mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag
criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit
the fire danger risk for most areas.
A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as
heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE
into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a
sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection
may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE
values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level
lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a
few hours Saturday morning.
Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the
Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally,
morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning
hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front
develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused
further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the
Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place
that should prevent any surface based convection from forming
through the daytime hours of Saturday.
Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of
storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for
convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas
and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over
NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later
convective development into the evening hours across the Southern
Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the
Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s
looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of
elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards
daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE,
elevated hail producing supercells would be possible.
Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and
Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward.
Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should
continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty
on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the
CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated
as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting
the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we
may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across
the northern CWA.
The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday
afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and
destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe
convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off
the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection,
with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend
timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast
moving into the weekend.
Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming
vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s
forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for
convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given
the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on
Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional
convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected
to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for
below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Fog will continue for STJ for the upcoming 1-3 hours, but generally
VFR conditions are anticipated for all terminals today. Winds will
remain from the southwest.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west
to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the
southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge
axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into
next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and
lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next
week.
The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture
into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk
this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West
Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate
temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to
even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient
tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind
gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer
moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later
today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this
afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn
mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag
criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit
the fire danger risk for most areas.
A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as
heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE
into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a
sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection
may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE
values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level
lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a
few hours Saturday morning.
Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the
Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally,
morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning
hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front
develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused
further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the
Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place
that should prevent any surface based convection from forming
through the daytime hours of Saturday.
Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of
storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for
convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas
and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over
NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later
convective development into the evening hours across the Southern
Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the
Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s
looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of
elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards
daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE,
elevated hail producing supercells would be possible.
Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and
Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward.
Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should
continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty
on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the
CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated
as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting
the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we
may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across
the northern CWA.
The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday
afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and
destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe
convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off
the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection,
with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend
timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast
moving into the weekend.
Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming
vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s
forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for
convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given
the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on
Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional
convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected
to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for
below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Surface ridging continues to move across the terminals. Fog is
anticipated in STJ, with temporary restrictions to LIFR through
daybreak. Otherwise VFR conditions likely through Friday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
845 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RED
LODGE AREA TONIGHT. RAIN HAS BEEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS SNOW
LEVELS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 5500 FEET THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR RED LODGE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SETTING UP FROM RAPELJE SOUTH TO BRIDGER. STRONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP IN THIS REGION AND RADAR WAS
ESTIMATING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL SO FAR. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND INCREASE POPS OUT EAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING N TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WY THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA. CAPES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING. THE CAPES WERE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY THE RAP AFTER 03Z...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE EVENING. BULK SHEAR WAS ALSO
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
COMPACT UPPER LOW WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH
AZ THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS SPREADING N OUT FROM THE
LOW IN SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS AGREED THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH
SE CO BY 12Z SUN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO GO NEGATIVE TILT AND TAP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NE THROUGH MON INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LARGER CUTOFF WILL THEN MEANDER E MON NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AMORPHOUS LOW CENTERS WERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOWS WERE FORECAST
TO MERGE OVER NE OR E CO BY 12Z SUN WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MERGED LOW INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL FALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHIFTS TO SE MT...E OF
KBIL...DURING SUN MORNING DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE INVERTED
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUN AND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SE MT. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL BE THIS EVENING OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...BUT DENDRITIC
GROWTH WILL BE HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEPT THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION GOING
OVER THE SE THROUGH MON WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHEST E OVER THE
DAKOTAS. ANOTHER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED MON.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE MON NIGHT.
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT
AND MON NIGHT. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SE SUN NIGHT. ONLY MADE SLIGHT POP AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S SUN AND MON.
STILL EXPECTING GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW BEGINNING
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL EVOLVE
SLOWLY THROUGH MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL DRIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WET AND COOL PATTERN FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH DAY... AND WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. WHILE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW SLOW
BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN... THURSDAY WILL FINALLY BE
WARMER AND DRIER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FINALLY BUILDS IN ALOFT
ALONG WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED IN
TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A WETTER TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAN WE INITIALLY
THOUGHT. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELIES FOR
AREAS EAST OF FORSYTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY COOL ACROSS THE EAST ... WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER WEST
THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAM SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD
AND ALLOWS FOR +10C 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ... GIVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW...HOWEVER THE
MAIN DETERRENT TO REALIZING THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY..WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY TAPER-
ING OFF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN FAVORS STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO SHERIDAN WY GIVEN THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES-
SURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE SHOWS 50 TO 70 PCT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
30 KTS FROM BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN AND ACROSS SE MT ON TUESDAY.
AFTER THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND ON THURSDAY... MODEL SOLU-
TIONS DIVERGE READILY. HOWEVER ... THE OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO
BE TOWARD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW... WHICH KEEP US FROM WARMING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL KEEP A SLGT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.
CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE THUNDER THREAT WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET WILL SEE WET SNOW
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST
FROM KBIL WEST TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST
OF KBIL ON SUNDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SNOW AND BE OBSCURED
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/056 036/051 035/053 036/057 037/062 039/065 041/058
+7/W 32/W 23/W 21/N 11/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 035/057 033/047 032/051 033/057 035/060 035/062 037/061
+5/W 33/W 23/W 11/B 11/U 12/W 22/W
HDN 041/056 033/051 035/052 033/058 032/061 035/066 038/059
99/W 65/W 34/W 42/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
MLS 043/047 034/047 035/048 032/051 033/058 037/063 039/058
9+/R 97/O 56/R 53/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 042/048 033/046 035/046 032/050 031/057 034/062 037/058
9+/R 97/O 56/R 53/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
BHK 042/045 033/044 034/042 031/049 031/054 034/058 036/057
8+/R +8/O 66/R 43/W 12/W 12/W 22/W
SHR 039/053 031/046 033/048 033/050 032/056 033/060 036/060
98/W 55/W 24/W 42/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
805 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE... MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO TIMING WITH
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE SO FAR THIS EVENING. PROTON
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN REGARD TO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
MODELS DID BACK OFF ON SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS.
UPPER TROUGH THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY CONVECTIVE INTO THIS EVENING THEN
TRANSITION TO STRATIFORM BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL
BE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH. HRRR HAS THIS AREA INITIATING NEAR A
BOUNDARY NEAR MILES CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT ABOUT 4 PM. AREA
GRADUALLY FILLS IN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ISENTROPIC FLOW CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH CUTS OFF NEAR SD/NE. PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE NW BACK
INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE EC KEEPS IT AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
ZONES...SO LOWERED QPFS/POPS THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLDER NOW OVER
THE NE ZONES RATHER THAN OPHEIM AREA FOR SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX
MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW BUT AN INCH STILL
LOOKS POSSIBLE. TFJ
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING OUTER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AFFECTING NORTHEAST
MONTANA...EVEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE 500-MB LOW BEING OVER KANSAS
CITY. THIS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE FOR OUR CWA IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SNOW
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL
BE RATHER BENIGN.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS
AXIS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE CASCADE RANGE...WILL START TO PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA FROM THE WEST...WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS...CLEAR
OUT THE SKIES...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY
EVENING WITH A LONG-WAVE STACKED UP LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL STILL BE UNDER A WEAKENING INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WITH WRAP- AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO MID-
WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTH OVER NEMONT. THERE
WILL BE SOME 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C. THIS CAA COULD RESULT IN
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. BUT QPF BY THEN WILL BE
LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
A BLOCKING PATTERN FARTHER EAST WILL PREVENT THE LARGE TROUGH
FROM MOVING EAST TOO QUICKLY. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS UP WEST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BUT DOES NOT ADVANCE MUCH...KEEPING NORTHEAST
MONTANA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND KEEPING TEMPERATURE
SEASONAL OR ON THE COOL SIDE AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
TRANSITION FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER LOW AND THE WARMER
RIDGE IS HARD TO DETERMINE. EXACTLY WHEN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
BETWEEN THE COMPETING AIR MASSES WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA IS NOT CERTAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF PERIODS. BUT AFTER MID-
WEEK THE BOUNDARY COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR TEMPERATURES TO
ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO DRY THINGS OUT.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE GFS AND EC HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS AS TO HOW THE PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT. BUT BOTH
MODELS HINT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BY THE
WEEKEND. SCT
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE.
CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW THIS MORNING PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 18Z. FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER UPPER RIDGING THIS
MORNING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS SUPPORTED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION W OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WAS IN THE FORECAST. NOTED THE ECMWF BROUGHT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RIDGING
ALOFT...THIS POSSIBILITY APPEARED TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY POPS
THERE. FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR WAS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CAPE. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL
BE STEEP AND WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. LATEST RAP SHOWED NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES IN THE WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS AREA WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE. DID EXPAND THUNDER MENTION FURTHER INTO CARBON COUNTY
BASED ON THE RAP FORECAST. GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES...GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW PUSHES N INTO THE AREA FROM WY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N OF
THE AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE W. CURRENT POP
DISTRIBUTION FOR TONIGHT LOOKED REASONABLE IN THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCES FOR EVENING THUNDER IN THE W LOOKED FINE AS WELL. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND...IN CASE THUNDER MENTION
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
DRY WX EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP TROF ALONG THE PAC
COAST...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW MOVING THRU THE
GREAT BASIN. AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF PCPN FROM THE SW THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME WEAK ECHOES IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOW. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST THIS AFTN AND EVENING IN OUR WEST PER
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ASCENT IN RRQ OF SWLY JET...AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL SFC WINDS. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF BILLINGS...AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD TS TO PARK/
WHEATLAND COUNTIES WITH LIFTED INDICES ON THE ORDER OF -1C.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES
GOING THRU THE NIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH DRYING
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED...AND THIS PROMISES TO
BE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD OF WX FOR US THRU SAT NIGHT...INCLUDING
BILLINGS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MT
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER CELLS...
THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE WX THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. PCPN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER
AND HALF INCH WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH GREATER THAN A HALF INCH
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS PER THE UPSLOPING AND
INSTABILITY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7KFT OVER OUR WESTERN
MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME HIGH FOR SHOWERS
AND SOME DECENT PCPN TOTALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SINCE
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND GIVEN THIS WILL NOT BE A LONG
DURATION EVENT FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS...THIS PCPN SHOULD NOT HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...THOUGH THE ADDITIONAL
SNOW WATER WILL HAVE TO COME OUT EVENTUALLY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IT WILL BEGIN TO TURN COOLER IN OUR
NORTH/WEST ON SATURDAY PER ONSET OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION...BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 70F WITH THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN
SE MT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN SUN AND TUE WITH LIQUID MOISTURE TOTALS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY. THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED SHOWING A
STRONG...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS SUN...FORMING A CLOSED 500-MB LOW OVER NE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SIMULATIONS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
AND THEY ALSO AGREE THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SET UP
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT TOO...PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION. THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION COULD
BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS PULLED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LARGER-
SCALE FLOW...BUT AT THIS POINT A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD OF POPS FROM
70 TO 90 PERCENT IS PRUDENT. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLAY SUN AND THEN
CHANCE-STYLE POPS MON AND TUE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT IT/S
POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATON VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS.
ONE QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR ACTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
UNTIL SUN NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST...WHEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS 850-
MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 0 C. THE 00 UTC GFS IS WARMER...WITH
ITS PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM NOT EVEN SUPPORTING A MIX OF SNOW
UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE WANING. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUN NIGHT.
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS NOTABLE.
BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE 500-MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING WILL EXIST
IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THAT WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW WARM-UP OVER
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...AND LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21 UTC FROM AROUND
KLVM TOWARD KBIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR WEATHER WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTH WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 044/061 041/052 036/052 035/053 037/058 036/061
3/W 56/T 87/W 43/W 33/W 22/W 11/B
LVM 060 038/053 035/052 031/052 032/054 033/059 034/063
6/T 78/W 95/W 32/W 22/W 11/B 11/U
HDN 067 039/064 040/051 036/051 037/053 035/057 032/061
2/W 34/T 78/R 65/R 34/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 069 044/065 042/048 036/046 035/049 035/052 033/057
0/B 43/T 79/R 97/O 43/W 32/W 11/B
4BQ 069 042/070 041/048 034/046 034/047 033/050 032/056
1/B 23/T 79/R 96/O 54/W 43/W 11/B
BHK 067 043/064 041/046 034/043 033/044 032/048 030/054
0/B 22/T 79/R 97/O 54/W 32/W 11/B
SHR 067 039/066 039/048 033/048 033/049 031/053 031/058
2/W 23/T 68/R 65/O 33/W 32/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1006 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE THIS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY TRYING TO WORK INTO OUR AREA...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...MAXING OUT
AT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 37000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF
AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH
INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
PLENTY OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM
NEAR KMCK TO NEAR KGCK. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
WITH THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION THUS LIMITING ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA OVER OUR
AREA...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...CONVECTION
ALONG/NEAR THE DRY LINE SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THAT BEING SAID...A
~55KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 1KM WRF-
NMM BOTH SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS
ACROSS OUR EAST 03-06Z. THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST
DEEP-LAYER MUCAPE VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 100-200J/KG RANGE
TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EAST IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. CLOSER TO SUNRISE...ANOTHER ROUND CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR EAST AS THE AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND DRY
INTRUSION...MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 20% POPS ACROSS OUR EAST 10-12Z
SUNDAY...WITH POPS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE...WIND...DEW POINT AND SKY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENTLY OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
...WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS...
ALOFT: A POTENT/DEEP LOW WAS NEAR LAS VEGAS AND MOVING INTO AZ. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD E TO THE 4-CORNERS BY 7PM AND THEN BEGIN TO TAKE ON
NEGATIVE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE OVER ERN CO BY 7AM TOMORROW AND LIFT NE
INTO WRN NEB BY SUNSET.
SURFACE: EVOLUTION WILL BE COMPLEX. DEEP LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN FURTHER OVER ERN CO AND SHOULD BE DOWN TO ~983 MB BY 7PM. A
WARM FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND GRADUALLY LIFT TO NEAR THE NEB-KS
BORDER...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB AND WRN KS. INTO
TONIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE SANDHILLS...WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING FURTHER INTO NEB. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...THE PACIFIC COOL
FRONT WILL HAVE MERGED WITH THE DRYLINE AND THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
WILL BE UNDERWAY OVER NEB. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
TOMORROW AS THE COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONT PIVOTS CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 7AM-4PM. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WRAP
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW FROM 1PM-7PM.
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOT DOWN IN
PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...WHERE STOCKTON WAS 91F AT 3PM. BREEZY SE
WINDS...BORDERING ON WINDY. GRI REPORTED A 38 KT GUST AT 240 PM.
TONIGHT: WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO FIRE E
OF HWY 281. OTHERWISE...DRY/BREEZY/VERY MILD. USED CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS WHICH KEEPS LOWS IN THE 60S E OF HWY 183.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ADVECT N.
SEVERE: THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE ORGANIZING. THE PROBLEM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
TO SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE CAP. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT NO TSTMS
WILL FORM BEFORE SUNSET. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE PROBABILITY IS
ZERO. THERE IS A HINT OF A SMALL COLD FRONT ALOFT CURRENTLY
LIFTING NE FROM TX. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WILL LIFT N THRU THE FCST
AREA 7PM-1AM AND THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER.
BASED ON HI-RES NONHYDROSTATIC MODELS...A SINGLE STORM MAY GO UP
AFTER 5 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR I-70 IN CNTRL KS. A COUPLE MORE STORMS
COULD JOIN IT FURTHER NE OVER S-CNTRL NEB. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE
TSTM THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY E OF HWY 281.
MLCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 2500-3000 J/KG AS A SWATH OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S LIFTS INTO NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE...ESPECIALLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK FORCING. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
MOVE NE AROUND 15 KTS.
ALL THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AS MIXING
WANES THIS EVENING...0-1 KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS...
PUSHING THE 0-1 KM EHI TO 3-5...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO.
ANY TSTMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 10-11 PM.
SUN: HIGHLY VARIABLE. WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH STRATUS IN
SOME AREAS TO START THE DAY. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING WILL OCCUR
7AM-1PM...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ALOFT...INTERACTING WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
SO A NARROW ARC OF TSTMS COULD FORM FAIRLY EARLY AND RACE N INTO
THE SANDHILLS. THE EARLIER THE STORMS FORM...THE MORE SEVERE THEY
COULD BE. DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE SW WILL DIMINISH
INSTABILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CLEARING SHOULD THEN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS LINE...BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVES IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS COULD TRIGGER A COUPLE SHWRS.
SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG /50 KTS/ AND
STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY N-NNW AT 50-60 MPH. HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF
BALLS AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE COLD
AND WARM FRONTS ARE PINCHING TOGETHER AT THE OCCLUSION.
WIND: AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA S OF
I-80. SUSTAINED WINDS MEETING THE CRITERION ARE IN THE FCST. THIS
POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY TONIGHT/S MID SHIFT. IN
COORDINATING THE DDC/GLD/LBF...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. WHILE THE
GREATEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR MORE TO THE W...A TROPOSPHERE FOLD
COULD RESULT IN ABNORMALLY HIGH MIXING. THE 18Z NAM HAS THE LOOK
OF A "PV HOOK" WHICH COULD THREATEN A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS /GUST 40+ AND OR GUSTS 58+/.
AS FOR FIRE WX...DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER
N-CNTRL KS FOR SUN AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RISE A BIT BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SO CURRENT MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 20%. ENOUGH FOR NEAR-CRITICAL MENTION IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEASONABLY COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF APRIL AND BEGINNING TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE AS WE WORK THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME MODEST INSTABILITY TO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTS NORTH...RESULTING IN AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL OFF AND ON AGAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY...WHEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MID LEVEL WAVE
ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY TO START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL BE THE
WINDS...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY WINDY START TO THE WEEK. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH A DEEPER
LOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT ANY
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DID NOT INCREASE WINDS TO MATCH
SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS 35KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS OUR WEST ON MONDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT DID
REINTRODUCE A MENTION INTO THE HWO...AS IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WE
LIKELY WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR AT LEAST
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS LATE WEEK...EXPECT THE LOCAL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER WITH BASES NEAR 4000FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO
START THE TAF PERIOD. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG
THE AXIS OF A ~55KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS STRATUS WILL
INFILTRATE GRI BY 11Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE CEILING COULD
DROP TO IFR LEVELS...THUS THE BROKEN CIELING AT 600FT AGL FORECAST
11-16Z. INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEPTH SHOULD THEN HELP THE STRATUS
DISSIPATE POST-SUNRISE SUNDAY. A CU FIELD WITH BASES NEAR 2000FT
AGL IS THEN EXPECTED TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...VCTS REMAINS IN
THE TAF THROUGH 04Z...AND AGAIN 16-20Z SUNDAY. THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT 16-19KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 16Z.
BEYOND 16Z...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22-25KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
35KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PROMOTE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT GRI...AND SUCH HAS BEEN
PRESENTED IN THE TAF 04-11Z. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 5SM
IN BR CANNOT BE RULED OUT 11-16Z...BUT UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS
OTHERWISE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
912 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 12Z
SHOWED 100+KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE AXIS WAS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE WESTERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A GOOD
DRYLINE FROM EAST OF KHLC INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT 70S AND LOW 80S WERE OBSERVED WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS. FURTHER NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
BEING DEFINED IN THE SURFACE FIELD. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE
QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS OF 35KTS TO 50KTS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
CURRENTLY...THE AREA IS IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS CAN
BE SEEN FROM WATER VAPOR AS THE FETCH OF DRY AIR COMES ALL THE WAY
INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE
IS BEING PUSHED INTO KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS CAN BE SEEN BY
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT YET THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE WARM
SECTOR STAYING CAPPED AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR FROM 26.18Z DOES
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z. BUT
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST. IF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY STORMS TONIGHT...WILL
NEED STORMS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY. DIDN/T REMOVE CHANCES COMPLETELY
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SEVERE
PARAMETERS DO INDICATE THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS. AND WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL HELICITY...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINK SOME OF THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT ROBUST GETTING MID
TO UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WOULD VERY LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOS.
FOR SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY BRING THE 500MB LOW INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES THOUGH IN THE WEST TO
EAST EXTENT AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT MUCH IT HAS A HIGH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS
IMPROVED...YET THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY AND CENTERED IN THE KLBF/KMCK AREA AT
00Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW. SO DID INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLOWER EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH KEEPS THE WINDS FROM INCREASING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER QUICKER MOVEMENT COULD MEAN STRONG WINDS OF 30KTS SUSTAINED
EARLIER. WILL LET ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE GO TO ALLOW MODELS TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES FOR WINDS DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY...INSTABILITY ISN/T TERRIBLY
HIGH...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 100J/KG TO 1500 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR CAN/T DISCOUNT ANY STORMS
AS WELL AS ANY STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN
WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/ WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER WATCHING THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BE IF ANY CONVECTION GOES UP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
THERE IS ONLY LOW INSTABILITY BUT WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD CAUSE ANY CONVECTION TO SPIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MEANDER FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A PLETHORA OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOR THESE PERIODS...THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WIND POTENTIAL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SURFACE LOW...WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS NEBRASKA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A NICE DEFORMATION BAND OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOW FAR EAST THE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR SOME.
MORE ON THAT TWO PARAGRAPHS BELOW.
EVEN AT ONLY 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT...THE LATEST NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW
AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE NAM LIFTS THE H5 LOW FROM AROUND
ARNOLD NEBRASKA TO NORTH OF ONEILL NEBRASKA FROM 00Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
THE GFS LIFTS THE LOW FROM FAR EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY TO NEAR
SPRINGVIEW NEBRASKA DURING THE SAME PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS
THE LOW FROM WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO NEAR VALENTINE. NO
SURPRISE...THE NAM IS COLDEST AT H85 WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH H85 TEMPS OF 2 TO 3 C AT 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...FAVORING ALL RAIN OR POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX. ATTM...WILL
GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PTYPE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST GIVEN THE TRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
ATTM...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS ATTM.
THEN THERE IS THE WIND THREAT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 12Z MONDAY...IE OVER
THE FAR NERN CWA...WHILE THE NAM12 HAS THE LOW NEAR SIOUX CITY IOWA.
NO SURPRISE...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE MET
VERIFIES...WE WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINE FOR AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
GFS SOLN...ANY WIND ADVISORY IF NEEDED WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THIS LEADS TO THE
HEADLINE DILEMMA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTER HEADLINES IN THE NERN
PANHANDLE OR WIND HEADLINES. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO COME IN.
ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
RIDGE WILL LIMIT ANY EWD MOVEMENT OF THE H5 LOW...WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AS
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. IN ADDITION TO COLD RAIN...VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW SETS UP ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AS THE MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z
TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CRAWL SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR AT LEAST A RAIN
SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL INSERT THIS IN THE UPDATED
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY 40+ KT H85
WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS WELL AND IS SHAPING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS H85 TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -2C TO 5C. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO FACILITATE AT LEAST A
RAIN SNOW MIX TROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER
EASTERN IOWA BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE
LOWER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABSORBED
BY THE NRN STREAM AND LIFTED INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...A BANK OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THESE CLOUDS. THE STRATUS ACROSS NRN
NEB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALL DAY SUNDAY. NOTE NOT ALL MODELS SHOW LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN NEB BUT ENOUGH SHOW THIS FEATURE TO
PRESENT IT IN THE KVTN TAF.
SCATTERED SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA AND MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS NWRN NEB THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS ERN WY LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH NWRN NEB.
A SECOND AREA OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AOA 18Z-00Z SUNDAY ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CNTL WY.
THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED WIND SPEEDS TO DROP TO 10
MPH OR LESS. THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER HAS ENDED AND THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRENCHMAN BASIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
815 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AS EXPECTED...THE 00Z KOAX INDICATED A HEALTHY CAP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LIKELY PREVENTED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH THEY DID TRY AROUND 4 TO 6 PM WITH A
COUPLE OF CU CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
SOME CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED IR IMAGERY...BUT IT FIZZLED.
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON THE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THOUGH IN THAT AREA...DESPITE NOTHING HAPPENING THUS
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WERE FINALLY STARTING TO FILTER ONTO
THE PLAINS...WITH 10 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT KOMA AND 40 TO 60 METER
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB TEMPS WERE +8
TO +10 ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE MAINTAINED JUST 20 PERCENT
CHANCE POPS FOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS IS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT THE FOCUS
COULD VERY WELL BE JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST 01Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...SHIFTING THE SLIGHT RISK
INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES.
THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING THAT THEN ROTATES
NORTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STORM SYSTEM IS DEEPENING AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PLAINS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 170M CENTERED IN
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. 300MB JET UP TO 130KT WAS STILL ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 105-115KT AROUND THE BASE AND TOWARD THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z WAS FOCUSED IN TWO
SEPARATE AREAS...ONE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND FROM WEST TX
THROUGH OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO AROUND 50KT
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK 850MB
FRONT WAS NOTED FROM LOW IN NORTHERN WY/SOUTHERN MT THROUGH NEB INTO
NORTHERN MO. 700-500MB DELTA-T OF 20-24C WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD
OK/WEST TX. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST CO...WITH
WIND SHIFT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NEB NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IA...AND WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER AS UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAD ADVANCED INTO
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS VERY CONDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION ON CWA MARGINS TONIGHT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW. RAP CONTINUES TO MIX OUT PROFILE
DEEPLY BY 23-00Z AND DEVELOP VERY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION...WHILE HRRR
HAS TRENDED FROM PRODUCING A CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING TO NEARLY
DRY...AND 12Z 4KM WRF KEPT THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS THAT DO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ARE DOING SO
JUST IN OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST CWA. HAVE KEPT A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE
SMALL AREA OF POPS ADVANCING FROM SOUTHEAST NEB TO NEAR THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE FOCUSING ON THE NORTHEASTERNMOST
FRINGE FOR TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD KS/NEB ON
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN EASTERN
NEB...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA QUICKLY. WITH ABUNDANT SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST FOR ANY
CONVECTION AS IT GETS GOING ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A BREAK
IN CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THAT AIRMASS WILL
HAVE TIME TO SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA IF NOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD...AND
THUS CONVECTIVE MODE/THREATS WILL BE MESSY AND COMPLICATED. WITH
VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ROTATING LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ENOUGH 0-1KM
SHEAR EXISTS FOR A TORNADO THREAT FOR STORMS IF THEY CAN STAND
ALONE...THOUGH WORTH NOTING THAT HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE STRAIGHT THAN
CURVED IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING CWA IN DRY SLOT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
ONCE UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NEB...IT IS PROGGED TO STALL THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN FILL AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IOWA ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE WRAPAROUND AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS CWA REMAINS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD...AS AIRMASS REALLY
STABILIZES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND THE LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY DOWN INTO THE
50S AND LIKELY STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH 50 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
GENERALLY COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SPECIFIC POP MENTIONS OUT OF MOST PERIODS
FOR NOW...BUT THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TO GET AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE CWA ON SOME PERIOD. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING IN THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE POSSIBLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S IN AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TOWARDS
30 KNOTS. VFR CLOUDS INITIALLY...BUT MVFR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS...BY
08-10Z. A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOMETHING TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT STILL VERY UNSURE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE IN INITIAL FORECAST ISSUANCE UNTIL A MORE CLEAR SIGNAL
DEVELOPS. AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...OPTED TO INCLUDE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ABOUT 13-18Z. THEN A DRY LINE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 12Z
SHOWED 100+KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE AXIS WAS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE WESTERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A GOOD
DRYLINE FROM EAST OF KHLC INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT 70S AND LOW 80S WERE OBSERVED WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS. FURTHER NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
BEING DEFINED IN THE SURFACE FIELD. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE
QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS OF 35KTS TO 50KTS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
CURRENTLY...THE AREA IS IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS CAN
BE SEEN FROM WATER VAPOR AS THE FETCH OF DRY AIR COMES ALL THE WAY
INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE
IS BEING PUSHED INTO KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS CAN BE SEEN BY
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT YET THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE WARM
SECTOR STAYING CAPPED AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR FROM 26.18Z DOES
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z. BUT
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST. IF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY STORMS TONIGHT...WILL
NEED STORMS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY. DIDN/T REMOVE CHANCES COMPLETELY
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SEVERE
PARAMETERS DO INDICATE THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS. AND WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL HELICITY...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINK SOME OF THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT ROBUST GETTING MID
TO UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WOULD VERY LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOS.
FOR SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY BRING THE 500MB LOW INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES THOUGH IN THE WEST TO
EAST EXTENT AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT MUCH IT HAS A HIGH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS
IMPROVED...YET THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY AND CENTERED IN THE KLBF/KMCK AREA AT
00Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW. SO DID INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLOWER EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH KEEPS THE WINDS FROM INCREASING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER QUICKER MOVEMENT COULD MEAN STRONG WINDS OF 30KTS SUSTAINED
EARLIER. WILL LET ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE GO TO ALLOW MODELS TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES FOR WINDS DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY...INSTABILITY ISN/T TERRIBLY
HIGH...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 100J/KG TO 1500 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR CAN/T DISCOUNT ANY STORMS
AS WELL AS ANY STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN
WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/ WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER WATCHING THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BE IF ANY CONVECTION GOES UP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
THERE IS ONLY LOW INSTABILITY BUT WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD CAUSE ANY CONVECTION TO SPIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MEANDER FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A PLETHORA OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOR THESE PERIODS...THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WIND POTENTIAL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SURFACE LOW...WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS NEBRASKA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A NICE DEFORMATION BAND OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOW FAR EAST THE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR SOME.
MORE ON THAT TWO PARAGRAPHS BELOW.
EVEN AT ONLY 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT...THE LATEST NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW
AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE NAM LIFTS THE H5 LOW FROM AROUND
ARNOLD NEBRASKA TO NORTH OF ONEILL NEBRASKA FROM 00Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
THE GFS LIFTS THE LOW FROM FAR EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY TO NEAR
SPRINGVIEW NEBRASKA DURING THE SAME PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS
THE LOW FROM WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO NEAR VALENTINE. NO
SURPRISE...THE NAM IS COLDEST AT H85 WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH H85 TEMPS OF 2 TO 3 C AT 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...FAVORING ALL RAIN OR POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX. ATTM...WILL
GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PTYPE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST GIVEN THE TRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
ATTM...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS ATTM.
THEN THERE IS THE WIND THREAT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 12Z MONDAY...IE OVER
THE FAR NERN CWA...WHILE THE NAM12 HAS THE LOW NEAR SIOUX CITY IOWA.
NO SURPRISE...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE MET
VERIFIES...WE WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINE FOR AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
GFS SOLN...ANY WIND ADVISORY IF NEEDED WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THIS LEADS TO THE
HEADLINE DILEMMA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTER HEADLINES IN THE NERN
PANHANDLE OR WIND HEADLINES. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO COME IN.
ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
RIDGE WILL LIMIT ANY EWD MOVEMENT OF THE H5 LOW...WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AS
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. IN ADDITION TO COLD RAIN...VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW SETS UP ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AS THE MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z
TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CRAWL SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR AT LEAST A RAIN
SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL INSERT THIS IN THE UPDATED
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY 40+ KT H85
WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS WELL AND IS SHAPING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS H85 TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -2C TO 5C. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO FACILITATE AT LEAST A
RAIN SNOW MIX TROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER
EASTERN IOWA BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE
LOWER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABSORBED
BY THE NRN STREAM AND LIFTED INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...A BANK OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THESE CLOUDS. THE STRATUS ACROSS NRN
NEB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALL DAY SUNDAY. NOTE NOT ALL MODELS SHOW LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NRN NEB BUT ENOUGH SHOW THIS FEATURE TO
PRESENT IT IN THE KVTN TAF.
SCATTERED SHRA...ISOLATED TSRA AND MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS NWRN NEB THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS ERN WY LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH NWRN NEB.
A SECOND AREA OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AOA 18Z-00Z SUNDAY ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CNTL WY.
THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO KEEP DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS FIRE ZONE
210. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL
AND HUMIDITY STARTS TO RECOVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
DOWNSLIDE FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM SITS OVER THE
REGION. MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS. IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO BE
POSSIBLE ALMOST DAILY IN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ210.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STORM SYSTEM IS DEEPENING AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PLAINS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 170M CENTERED IN
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. 300MB JET UP TO 130KT WAS STILL ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 105-115KT AROUND THE BASE AND TOWARD THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z WAS FOCUSED IN TWO
SEPARATE AREAS...ONE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND FROM WEST TX
THROUGH OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO AROUND 50KT
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK 850MB
FRONT WAS NOTED FROM LOW IN NORTHERN WY/SOUTHERN MT THROUGH NEB INTO
NORTHERN MO. 700-500MB DELTA-T OF 20-24C WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD
OK/WEST TX. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST CO...WITH
WIND SHIFT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NEB NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IA...AND WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER AS UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAD ADVANCED INTO
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS VERY CONDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION ON CWA MARGINS TONIGHT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW. RAP CONTINUES TO MIX OUT PROFILE
DEEPLY BY 23-00Z AND DEVELOP VERY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION...WHILE HRRR
HAS TRENDED FROM PRODUCING A CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING TO NEARLY
DRY...AND 12Z 4KM WRF KEPT THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS THAT DO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ARE DOING SO
JUST IN OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST CWA. HAVE KEPT A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE
SMALL AREA OF POPS ADVANCING FROM SOUTHEAST NEB TO NEAR THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE FOCUSING ON THE NORTHEASTERNMOST
FRINGE FOR TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD KS/NEB ON
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN EASTERN
NEB...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA QUICKLY. WITH ABUNDANT SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST FOR ANY
CONVECTION AS IT GETS GOING ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A BREAK
IN CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THAT AIRMASS WILL
HAVE TIME TO SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA IF NOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD...AND
THUS CONVECTIVE MODE/THREATS WILL BE MESSY AND COMPLICATED. WITH
VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ROTATING LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ENOUGH 0-1KM
SHEAR EXISTS FOR A TORNADO THREAT FOR STORMS IF THEY CAN STAND
ALONE...THOUGH WORTH NOTING THAT HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE STRAIGHT THAN
CURVED IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING CWA IN DRY SLOT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
ONCE UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NEB...IT IS PROGGED TO STALL THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN FILL AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IOWA ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE WRAPAROUND AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS CWA REMAINS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD...AS AIRMASS REALLY
STABILIZES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND THE LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY DOWN INTO THE
50S AND LIKELY STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH 50 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
GENERALLY COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SPECIFIC POP MENTIONS OUT OF MOST PERIODS
FOR NOW...BUT THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TO GET AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE CWA ON SOME PERIOD. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING IN THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE POSSIBLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S IN AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TOWARDS
30 KNOTS. VFR CLOUDS INITIALLY...BUT MVFR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS...BY
08-10Z. A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOMETHING TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT STILL VERY UNSURE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE IN INITIAL FORECAST ISSUANCE UNTIL A MORE CLEAR SIGNAL
DEVELOPS. AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...OPTED TO INCLUDE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ABOUT 13-18Z. THEN A DRY LINE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDDLE EVENING.
SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINAS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
ON TAP AS THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADO WATCH TO THE NORTH AND
NO CONVECTION AT ALL TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST FORCING OF
THIS TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS SHOWING 1200 TO 1500+
J-KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF
SOUTHPORT TO BURGAW LINE. TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER WHICH IS KEEPING CAPES AROUND
THE 1000 J-KG-1.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...IF YOU DO LIKE THE IDEA OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER A WEEKEND...THIS
COULD BE AN EXQUISITE 2-DAY PERIOD UPCOMING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...PROVIDING A DEEP AND DRY WNW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
LOCAL COLUMN. RETURN FLOW OF WIND CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH AS IT
BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE...WILL BRING INCREASING ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY
AND CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MENTIONABLE POP
VALUES ARE NOT PLANNED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. AN A-TYPICAL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ON MONDAY
WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. RIDGE IN BETWEEN GETS PINCHED OFF BY TUESDAY TRANSITIONING
PATTERN FROM OMEGA BLOCK TO A HIGH-OVER-LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WE THEN LOOK TO THE WEST FOR OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES...AND DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAGE
WHEN AND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP. EVENTUALLY THINGS WILL
SHUNT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE GET INTO THE RIBBON OF DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INC IN POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE NO AIR MASS CHANGES
SO TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...REMAINING GENERALLY
ABOVE CLIMO BY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MILD...AND MAY RISE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR THE SAME REASON.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS TWO
SEPARATE BOUTS OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST WITH THE MAX INSTABILITY
AND THE SECOND WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS COULD BE
BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 02Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE BUMPIEST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND MARINE
PERIOD WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. STIFF NORTH WINDS EARLY SATURDAY HOWEVER
WILL QUICKLY EASE THEN VEER TO SSW BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE. 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS VERY WEAK.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH WIND AND WAVES AS
THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS MAINTAINED AND A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT
SEEMS THAT THE INCREASE IN BOTH MAY BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ107 INLAND NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DRH/43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON ON TAP AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADO WATCH TO THE NORTH AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL
TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST FORCING OF THIS TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE
IS SHOWING 1200 TO 1500+ J-KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A
MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF SOUTHPORT TO BURGAW LINE. TO THE EAST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER
WHICH IS KEEPING CAPES AROUND THE 1000 J-KG-1.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ON MONDAY
WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. RIDGE IN BETWEEN GETS PINCHED OFF BY TUESDAY TRANSITIONING
PATTERN FROM OMEGA BLOCK TO A HIGH-OVER-LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WE THEN LOOK TO THE WEST FOR OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES...AND DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAGE
WHEN AND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP. EVENTUALLY THINGS WILL
SHUNT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE GET INTO THE RIBBON OF DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INC IN POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE NO AIR MASS CHANGES SO
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...REMAINING GENERALLY
ABOVE CLIMO BY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MILD...AND MAY RISE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR THE SAME REASON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE
BOUTS OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST WITH THE MAX INSTABILITY AND THE
SECOND WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR
IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 02Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS VERY WEAK.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH WIND AND WAVES AS
THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS MAINTAINED AND A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT
SEEMS THAT THE INCREASE IN BOTH MAY BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
152 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...INIT WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INSTAB INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA...SOME POSS SEVERE WILL SPREAD IN LATER
THIS AFTN AS UPR SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER LIFT. DECENT MIX OF
INSTAB AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER
150. BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF
COLDER WTR. INCREASED POPS A BIT NRN TIER TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOWER 70S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BRING CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR. EXPECT
TS BTW 22Z TO 04Z PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...BRING CONDITIONS
TO MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT UP TO 20 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS CAN OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE TAF SITES...CEILING
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING BY 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KTS. CONT SCA HEAD LINE SRN AND CNTRL CSTL WTRS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SCA FOR CNTRL WTRS INTO SAT MORN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...WL DECIDE
AFTER LOOKING AT ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.
SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL
NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...INIT WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INSTAB INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA...SOME POSS SEVERE WILL SPREAD IN LATER
THIS AFTN AS UPR SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER LIFT. DECENT MIX OF
INSTAB AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER
150. BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF
COLDER WTR. INCREASED POPS A BIT NRN TIER TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOWER 70S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST
HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KTS. CONT SCA HEAD LINE SRN AND CNTRL CSTL WTRS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SCA FOR CNTRL WTRS INTO SAT MORN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...WL DECIDE
AFTER LOOKING AT ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.
SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL
NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING DAY ON TAP AS THE THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST
FORCING OF THIS TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS SHOWING 1500+
JOULES KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF
ELIZABETHTOWN. TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER. ALSO THE LATEST 12 UTC BUFR SOUNDING
KEEP SHOWING THE WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH PROHIBITING THE
STORMS FROM GROWING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROP QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE
FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT
NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS
CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND
INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE
FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF
THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX
AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND 17Z. THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY AS A
POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY
WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10
TO 15 KTS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING DAY ON TAP AS THE THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO THE NORTH BUT A THE TAIL
OF THE THAT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
INSTABILITIES...CAPE...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1600-1900 JOULES KG-1
BUT LIMITING MOISTURE AND WARM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
PROHIBITIVE FACTORS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROP QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE
FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT
NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS
CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND
INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE
FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF
THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX
AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND 17Z. THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY AS A
POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT WILL AGAIN FLIRT
WITH COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS
EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY
WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10
TO 15 KTS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
903 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 855 AM FRIDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO PREV FCST. LOWERED INIT
POPS/CLOUDS AS LOOKS LIKE ACTVTY WILL BE MAINLY OVER WATER/NEAR SRN
BEACHES THIS MORN. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SVR THREAT LATER THIS AFTN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND COLD FRONT. DECENT MIX OF INSTAB
AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 150.
BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF
COLDER WTR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 70S INLAND TO UPR 60S/AROUND
70 BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST
HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 855 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS
LATER TODAY CONT THRU THIS EVENING WITH SCA CNTRL AND SRN WTRS.
PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.
SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL
NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST
WHILE OVER LAND A FEW BIRD BURSTS HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...THOUGH BALD HEAD ISLAND COULD END UP
BRUSHED BY THE CLOSEST ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
LIFTING WARM FRONT BENEATH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY. ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED (OTHER THAN ISSUANCE OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL REGION THE
THREAT APPEARS RATHER SMALL. INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...SURFACE
BASED CAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG IN MOST PLACES WITH POCKETS OF CAPE >
1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY AND DEVELOPMENT OF 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
80S IN MOST AREAS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 60+ DEWPOINTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY BODE WELL FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING AND SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
PRESENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 3K
AND 10K FT...DEEPEST ACROSS INLAND NC COUNTIES. IT IS ABOVE THIS
LAYER THAT THE AIR MASS RAPIDLY DRIES OUT...JUST AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS BUILDING. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS QUICKLY OPENING UP AND BECOMING
POSITIVELY TILTED. THE TIMING BETWEEN THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
THE PVA IS OUT OF SYNC. INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE AREA ENDS UP WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED POP GRADIENT (HIGH NORTH LOW
SOUTH) BUT EXPAND THE RANGES A BIT. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BUMP TO 50 ACROSS NORTHERN TIER.
PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVING IN AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY DISSIPATING. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP ITS PASSAGE DRY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MINIMAL AT BEST. THE COMBINATION
OF WARM TEMPS TODAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT RESULT
IN LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE
FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT
NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS
CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND
INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE
FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF
THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH
THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND
17Z. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY
AS A POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY
EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AN ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN THROUGH 9 AM.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH TODAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING MORE DEFINED
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
15 KT AROUND MIDDAY...FURTHER INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THIS
EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH STIFF N-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY
DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BY LATE SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10
KTS OR LESS MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT WILL FALL QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AS THE NW WIND
PUSHES HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASING
SPEEDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY
WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10
TO 15 KTS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WELL OFFSHORE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...BUT
HAVE KEPT A SMALL POP IN TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY MOVING IN OFF THE
WATER. STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE OCEAN BY MID MORNING PER LATEST
3KM HRRR MODEL. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS ABOUT
2000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL. THINK THE
PRIME TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE
ROUGHLY 20Z TO 03Z AND THINK GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...OUR NORTHERN AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED
REGION FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER
60S COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND GIVEN THE INCREASING S/SSW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST
HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH SEAS JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
MARINE FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN
MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO
3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER
LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS
7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
348 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM FRIDAY...STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 500
MB TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE OCEAN BY MID
MORNING PER LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STILL
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF
OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH
AS ABOUT 2000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL. THINK THE
PRIME TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE
ROUGHLY 20Z TO 03Z AND THINK GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...OUR NORTHERN AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED
REGION FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER
60S COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND GIVEN THE INCREASING S/SSW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME
MVFR CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THE 3 KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
REGION BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD
LAYERS BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-
VFR. WILL JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND
LOWER CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM
THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION
WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EXCEPT HAVE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES
OUTER BANKS. TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING. THE 3 KM HRRR TRIES TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AROUND
11Z BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DAMPENING SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. SPC UPGRADED SVR OUTLOOK TO
SLIGHT RISK OVER AREA AND CONCUR ON MARGINAL SVR THREAT DURING AFTN
WITH FCST SOUNDING CAPES TO AROUND 1200 AND SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST POPS WITH 20% OVER SW HALF OF AREA DURING
MORNING WITH INITIAL WAA...THEN 30-50 POPS FOR TSTMS DURING
AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WRN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE TO
AROUND 80 INLAND SECTIONS EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...AND AROUND 70
OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRI EVENING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPCLY NE TIER CLOSER TO SHORT
WAVE AND BETTER FORCING. COULD STILL BE SMALL CHC OF STRONG TO SVR
STORM EARLY BUT WITH INSTAB WANING THREAT SHLD END QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALL PRECIP SHLD EXIT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS FRONT/SHORT WAVE
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND
60 BEACHES. WEAK HIGH WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF
SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPR 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES.
SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THRU THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND
STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT
ESPCLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE CST TO MID/UPR
70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE LATER
MON ESPCLY INLAND AND CONT SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HIGHWAY 17 IN THE
AFTN. ISENT LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO
THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH
GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NRN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS
WITH CHC POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHC SE.
TUE THROUGH THU LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPR LOW STALLS NEAR SRN
GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR
JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BOUTS OF SHRA
AND POSS TSRA THRU THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO
GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. SOME INDICATION THAT WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ON FRONT AND PUSH BULK OF MOISTURE OFF THE CST LATER THU BUT TOO
EARLY TO REALLY JUMP ON THAT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUE INTO
THU HOWEVER CLDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPR 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE 3
KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION
BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD LAYERS
BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR. WILL
JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT MVFR POSS EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
THEN VFR FROM M ID EVENING ON AS MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES
WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT
WL LIFT N THRU THE REGION LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH INCREASING
CHC OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO MARINE FORECAST. WINDS
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3
FEET ON ALL WATERS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PRODUCE
INCREASING S-SW WINDS ON FRIDAY. MODEL BLEND INDICATES WINDS 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE
AFTN...AND POSTED SCA THERE AT 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT.
BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY WITH 4-6 FT LIKELY OUTER PORTIONS
OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...BRIEF SCA EXPECTED FIRST PART OF FRI NIGHT CNTRL
AND SRN TIER WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN
THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OUTER WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET. WINDS WL GRAD SHIFT TO NW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORN.
WEAK HIGH WILL CROSS TO THE S SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS
AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SSE THRU THE REGION LATER SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15 TO 20
KTS CNTRL AND NRN TIER BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO
4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...POSS SOME 5 FOOTER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS. HIGH PRES WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N
THRU THE AREA TUE WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
CURRENT VIS SHOWING THINNING/DISSIPATION ALONG ROUGHLY A PARK
RAPIDS- CROOKSTON-CAVALIER LINE WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE HAS ERODED
AF FAR NORTH TO CLEAR OUT VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON. NOW FEELING
MORE CONFIDENT THIS WILL SCOUR OUT BY SUNSET AND HAVE BEGAN
REDUCING SKY COVER IN AFTN HOURS. FCST DISCUSSION UPDATED MAINLY
FOR ADDITION OF NEW TAF DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE DISSIPATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AS SUN ANGLE INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME SOUTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF
LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SASK...WHICH THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...INCREASING
SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z...HOWEVER NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR AFTN HOURS.
CURRENT GRIDS SCATTERING THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE...SO WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED WITH 1
PM OR EARLIER UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. WE WILL REMOVE ANY POPS
AFTER 18Z IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT
MORE TODAY...WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TOO MUCH SUNSHINE. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A NOWCAST AND NOT ISSUE
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
COLORADO CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE ARE GETTING
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING
SYSTEM...AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF MIX THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SOUTHEAST INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY. WE WILL
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG. IF WINDS STAY DECOUPLED THOUGH...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG.
FOR SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND IT SHOULD
BE BREEZY TO WINDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM SW TO NE AND THEY COULD DRY UP BEFORE
PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...BUT IT COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
ANY AREA.
ON SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF NE SD. IT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE MAY MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL WAA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION INCREASES AND PWATS RISE
TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND A VERY WINDY DAY
WITH EAST WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX FROM
925 FOR MOST AREAS...SO A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...ANOTHER DREARY DAY EXPECTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
AROUND A POTENT LOW DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SD.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...OVERALL A SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN THE BLOCKED
UPPER FLOW. WHILE THE MODELS ALL SHOW GENERALLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES MAY BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WITH DRY AIR POSSIBLY IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO
PARTS OF NW MN. THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER. CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION COULD AFFECT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...SOME PRECIP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW COULD
LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. THUS...HAVE POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS...BUT
SOME PRECIP-FREE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE DRY CANADIAN AIR TRIES
TO EXERT INFLUENCE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...SO HIGH
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS ON A GIVEN
DAY. KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AREA OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/STRATOCU ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM KMOT TO KBWP TO KSTC WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES SOMETIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFTING TO MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SOME BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RED
RIVER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE DISSIPATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AS SUN ANGLE INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME SOUTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF
LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SASK...WHICH THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...INCREASING
SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z...HOWEVER NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR AFTN HOURS.
CURRENT GRIDS SCATTERING THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE...SO WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED WITH 1
PM OR EARLIER UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. WE WILL REMOVE ANY POPS
AFTER 18Z IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT
MORE TODAY...WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TOO MUCH SUNSHINE. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A NOWCAST AND NOT ISSUE
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
COLORADO CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE ARE GETTING
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING
SYSTEM...AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF MIX THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SOUTHEAST INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY. WE WILL
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG. IF WINDS STAY DECOUPLED THOUGH...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG.
FOR SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND IT SHOULD
BE BREEZY TO WINDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM SW TO NE AND THEY COULD DRY UP BEFORE
PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...BUT IT COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
ANY AREA.
ON SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF NE SD. IT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE MAY MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL WAA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION INCREASES AND PWATS RISE
TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND A VERY WINDY DAY
WITH EAST WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX FROM
925 FOR MOST AREAS...SO A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...ANOTHER DREARY DAY EXPECTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
AROUND A POTENT LOW DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SD.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...OVERALL A SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN THE BLOCKED
UPPER FLOW. WHILE THE MODELS ALL SHOW GENERALLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES MAY BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WITH DRY AIR POSSIBLY IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO
PARTS OF NW MN. THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER. CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION COULD AFFECT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...SOME PRECIP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW COULD
LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. THUS...HAVE POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS...BUT
SOME PRECIP-FREE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE DRY CANADIAN AIR TRIES
TO EXERT INFLUENCE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...SO HIGH
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS ON A GIVEN
DAY. KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERING OF
CLOUDS TOWARDS 00Z. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THOUGH WITH CLEARING
TREND...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PJS
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AS OF 545 UTC...FOG CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH FOG
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. OTHER THEN
TO ADJUST LOWS FOR TONIGHT BASED UPON TRENDS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE CONVECTION
MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. EXPECTING FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 400 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...SPC`S NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER BOTTINEAU AND
MCHENRY COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET FUNNEL CLOUD
REPORTS FROM THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE. VERY WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE
30S. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP PROG FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR SAID REGION
DURING THE 09Z-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD.
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS IS BEING OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
A WET AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR 142W/43N
WITH AN UPSTREAM 300MB JET STREAK OF 160KT DIGGING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM
MODELS WITH A SPLITTING TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OFF NEAR COLORADO
SUNDAY...THEN CIRCULATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...700MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP WEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IMPINGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 50S BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
IFR/LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE 08-14 UTC TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF SET. HOWEVER...POST 06 UTC...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF NEBRASKA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1052 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FRONT AND
BRINGS CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGE...POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH THIS PUSH OF SOUTHERLY AIR...WARMTH AND MOISTURE AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TAP FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT...
STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND 26.18Z RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY
SHOW POTENT UPPER LOW DIGGING/TURNING EAST NOW THROUGH AZ. THIS
HAS INDUCED STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM DRIVING THE
COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LATTER SYSTEM INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FORMER
SYSTEM OUT INTO COLORADO WILL ALLOW LARGE SCALE/AMPLIFIED RIDGING
INTO AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THESE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL ACT TO STALL THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING THROUGH
OHIO...WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP SOMEWHERE NEAR/ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. THERE IS A WEALTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION IN THE STRONGER SWLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SO FEEL TOMORROW WILL HAVE
MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...LIKELY SOME MID LEVEL AC AND CIRRUS AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS FIRST AT THOSE LEVELS THE RIDGE
CROSSES THE AREA. UNDERNEATH...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OHIO ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A DRY/EASTERLY
BREEZE WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
ESP NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE A TEMP
GRADIENT FROM NRN KY /SOUTH OF THE FRONT/ WHERE TEMPS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THE FACTOR OF EAST
WINDS...MORE CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. COULD BE A
SNEAKY BUST DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPS NOT WARMING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW QUITE STRONG THE FURTHER NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER ONE GOES.
FIRST WAVES OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVE /850-700MB/
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY IN LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD...AS
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS AS SURFACE LOW SWINGS
OUT INTO NEBRASKA AND DEEPENS AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES MATURITY
AND BECOMES CUT OFF. DESPITE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL LARGELY
BEING INTACT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THERE IS ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING WITH THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THAT EXPECT A SCT-BKN WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS TO EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING TO OUR
WEST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AT ALL...PER 26.12Z GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS...INSTBY IS MARGINAL /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE PARCELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER
WEAK. THESE SHOULD BE ELEVATED STORMS AND MAIN IMPACTS/THREATS
WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE CONTINUED
THE MENTION OF 60-75% RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AS THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LEAST WITH HOW STRONG THE PUSH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS AND THE REMAINING ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
ON MONDAY...THIS INITIAL WAVE OF ADVECTION-INDUCED SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY VERY
WELL HAVE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HARD TO TELL
FOR CERTAIN...WITH LARGE UPPER SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST...THE
ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER EASY TO SEE. BUT MOIST FLOW
AND CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOWER TROP SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY
TO BUILD AND THIS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR MAY VERY WELL BE FILLED
WITH A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. SO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY REMAIN UP FOR GRABS...THERE MAY BE LESS
RAIN COVERAGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD THAN CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS.
FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG/EAST OF
MS RIVER INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY WILL IGNITE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WHICH SHOULD INVOLVE THE LOCAL AREA AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE LARGE CNTL CONUS TROUGH. GIVEN THE DEEP MSLP WAY TO
THE WEST...LOW LEVEL WIND FLOWS WILL HAVE SOME COMPONENT OF
SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND
GIVEN FAST/SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESP IN THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTBY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO BUILD IN WAKE OF MONDAY MORNING
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POINT FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DECENT
EML TO STEEPEN TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE IS THUS
TALL/SKINNY AND OVERALL INSTBY STILL LOOKING MARGINAL. BUT SHEAR
WILL BE GOOD ESP WITH ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...SO IF ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEATING DEVELOPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SUBSEQUENT THREATS FOR SEVERE GO UP LATE MON
AFTN/NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY NOT TO GET
CARRIED AWAY...AND ACTUALLY GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS/PWAT
ANOMALIES THERE IS JUST AS MUCH CONCERN FOR A BAND OF
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONFLUENCE SETS
UP. SO WATCHING THIS PERIOD CLOSELY. DECIDED NOT TO GET CUTE IN
THE FORECAST...AND JUST RUNNING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN OVERALL ENSEMBLE
PROBS...DEEP MOISTURE...AND ARRIVAL OF TWO WAVES OF FORCING
MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ANY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
ON SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO MOVING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EAST WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY
GUSTY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1009 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION IS STRENGHTENING OFF OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
THE CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING. THE RUC IS DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THE
CLOUDS THAN THE NAM/GFS AND SHOWS SOME POSSIBLE EXPANSION OFF THE
WEST END OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TOWARDS TOLEDO. IT DOES SEEM LIKE SOME
BREAKS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS
NW OHIO WHERE WINDS ARE 10-20 MPH.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOWN
BY A BAND OF CU FROM NEAR AOH TO HLG. BKN-OVC CLOUD HAD
REDEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT DRIER AIR MIXING
IN HAS ALLOWED THESE TO THIN AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIURNAL LOOK.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE CLOUD COVER NORTH IN ONTARIO AND
MICHIGAN. WHILE THESE HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WORKING SOUTH TODAY THE
NAM SHOWS FAVORABLE JET ENERGY OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING THE CLOUDS
SHIFTING INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST AGAIN OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES CLEAR TO
PC. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
HOWEVER EXPECT ON BALANCE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THAT GETS CLOSE
TO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER
UNTIL MONDAY. AS FOR MONDAY HIGH POPS SUPPORTED AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON CAPES OF 600-800 J/KG (SW COUNTIES) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
WEST AND LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH A
BLOCKING HIGH IN CANADA SETTING UP WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE COOL AND WET..WITH A SERIES OF LOWS ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT TIMING IT IN AND
OUT WITH THE SERIES OF TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT IS PRECARIOUS AT BEST.
FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATCHING SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEY ARE INTO NW PA AND WILL MAKE INTO YNG AND POSSIBLY CLE BY
04Z. OTHERWISE SOME MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
DECREASE. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN THE
WARM ADVECTION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY IN PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS AND WAVES WERE INCREASING AND THEN WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE FORECASTED NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING UPDATED TO ADD A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. WAVES
WILL BE INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER DARK.
KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP UNTIL THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH
OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE. AFTER THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SET UP BY
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND INDIANA AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FRONT AND BRINGS CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGE...POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ALLOWING THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH THIS PUSH OF SOUTHERLY
AIR...WARMTH AND MOISTURE AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 18Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RATHER WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH TO COLUMBUS TO INDIANAPOLIS. A WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH SCT CUMULUS BASED AROUND 7KFT AND TEMPS THAT HAVE
WARMED WELL INTO THE 70S...AND A DEWPOINT DROP INTO THE 40S. THE
FRONT IS ONLY WEAKLY CONVERGENT...AND MOST NWP SOLUTIONS ARE IN
GROSS ERROR WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HRRR HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS WITH TIME - AND HAS SLOWLY DROPPED THE
COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THE HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...AND A
REDUCTION IN INSTBY VIA THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL LIKELY NOT
MENTION ANY SHRA THROUGH THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AND HOLD WITH SPRINKLE
MENTIONS IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET FROM SOME OF THE
DEEPER CUMULUS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES TONIGHT...TEMPS
SHOULD DROP OFF GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A VERY WEAK WAVE CRESTING THE BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ALLOW MID-CLOUD TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND 26.18Z RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY
SHOW POTENT UPPER LOW DIGGING/TURNING EAST NOW THROUGH AZ. THIS
HAS INDUCED STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM DRIVING THE
COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LATTER SYSTEM INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FORMER
SYSTEM OUT INTO COLORADO WILL ALLOW LARGE SCALE/AMPLIFIED RIDGING
INTO AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THESE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL ACT TO STALL THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING THROUGH
OHIO...WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP SOMEWHERE NEAR/ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. THERE IS A WEALTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION IN THE STRONGER SWLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SO FEEL TOMORROW WILL HAVE
MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...LIKELY SOME MID LEVEL AC AND CIRRUS AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS FIRST AT THOSE LEVELS THE RIDGE
CROSSES THE AREA. UNDERNEATH...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OHIO ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A DRY/EASTERLY
BREEZE WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
ESP NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE A TEMP
GRADIENT FROM NRN KY /SOUTH OF THE FRONT/ WHERE TEMPS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THE FACTOR OF EAST
WINDS...MORE CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. COULD BE A
SNEAKY BUST DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPS NOT WARMING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW QUITE STRONG THE FURTHER NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER ONE GOES.
FIRST WAVES OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVE /850-700MB/
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY IN LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD...AS
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS AS SURFACE LOW SWINGS
OUT INTO NEBRASKA AND DEEPENS AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES MATURITY
AND BECOMES CUT OFF. DESPITE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL LARGELY
BEING INTACT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THERE IS ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING WITH THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THAT EXPECT A SCT-BKN WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS TO EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING TO OUR
WEST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AT ALL...PER 26.12Z GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS...INSTBY IS MARGINAL /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE PARCELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER
WEAK. THESE SHOULD BE ELEVATED STORMS AND MAIN IMPACTS/THREATS
WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE CONTINUED
THE MENTION OF 60-75% RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AS THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LEAST WITH HOW STRONG THE PUSH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS AND THE REMAINING ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
ON MONDAY...THIS INITIAL WAVE OF ADVECTION-INDUCED SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY VERY
WELL HAVE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HARD TO TELL
FOR CERTAIN...WITH LARGE UPPER SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST...THE
ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER EASY TO SEE. BUT MOIST FLOW
AND CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOWER TROP SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY
TO BUILD AND THIS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR MAY VERY WELL BE FILLED
WITH A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. SO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY REMAIN UP FOR GRABS...THERE MAY BE LESS
RAIN COVERAGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD THAN CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS.
FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG/EAST OF
MS RIVER INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY WILL IGNITE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WHICH SHOULD INVOLVE THE LOCAL AREA AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE LARGE CNTL CONUS TROUGH. GIVEN THE DEEP MSLP WAY TO
THE WEST...LOW LEVEL WIND FLOWS WILL HAVE SOME COMPONENT OF
SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND
GIVEN FAST/SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESP IN THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTBY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO BUILD IN WAKE OF MONDAY MORNING
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POINT FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DECENT
EML TO STEEPEN TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE IS THUS
TALL/SKINNY AND OVERALL INSTBY STILL LOOKING MARGINAL. BUT SHEAR
WILL BE GOOD ESP WITH ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...SO IF ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEATING DEVELOPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SUBSEQUENT THREATS FOR SEVERE GO UP LATE MON
AFTN/NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY NOT TO GET
CARRIED AWAY...AND ACTUALLY GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS/PWAT
ANOMALIES THERE IS JUST AS MUCH CONCERN FOR A BAND OF
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONFLUENCE SETS
UP. SO WATCHING THIS PERIOD CLOSELY. DECIDED NOT TO GET CUTE IN
THE FORECAST...AND JUST RUNNING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN OVERALL ENSEMBLE
PROBS...DEEP MOISTURE...AND ARRIVAL OF TWO WAVES OF FORCING
MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE HIGH TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ANY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
ON SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO MOVING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REGION SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EAST WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY
GUSTY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
955 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO PIVOT NE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST WITH AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF ILN/S EASTERN FA AROUND MIDDAY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AND WARP AROUND SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO EARLY
AFTN. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GOOD DRYING ALLOWING
INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTN
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GUSTS UP 30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO EARLY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND THEN SUNSHINE
WITH CAA. HAVE HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. A WEAK SFC FNT WILL
DROP DOWN INTO NRN OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
NW MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE
EXTREME NRN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SAG THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE DESCENDING FRONT.
BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE STUCK ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FRONT DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE SAGGING FRONT ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THE MID 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
ON SUNDAY THE NORTH MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRIMARILY VFR AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DOES NOT LOOK TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
BE MVFR IN MOST SITES...AND MOST DEFINITELY WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS
KICK IN BY THE LATE MORNING. RAP HAS A HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTION AREA AND REALLY DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 15Z. NAM APPEARS
TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS IN THE COLD POOL
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT THE TIMING IS SIMILAR...ENDING BY
17Z WITH LOW CIGS FAVORED THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. KCMH/KLCK WILL SEE A
LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BUT COULD STAY VFR FOR A LOT OF THIS
MORNING.
AS NW WINDS KICK IN WITH A STRONG GUST TO 25-30KT...DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY REMOVE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
IN THE EVENING UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. WEST WINDS WILL JUMP
BACK UP TO THE 10-20KT RANGE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NR THE IL/IN BORDER ATTM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW AREA OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES IN. BY MID
MORNING...AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF
THE THUNDER.
PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND A H5 S/W SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
COULD SEE GUSTS UP 30 MPH.
THE MORNING CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY AFTN CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. A WEAK SFC FNT WILL
DROP DOWN INTO NRN OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
NW MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE
EXTREME NRN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SAG THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE DESCENDING FRONT.
BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE STUCK ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FRONT DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE SAGGING FRONT ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THE MID 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
ON SUNDAY THE NORTH MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRIMARILY VFR AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DOES NOT LOOK TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
BE MVFR IN MOST SITES...AND MOST DEFINITELY WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS
KICK IN BY THE LATE MORNING. RAP HAS A HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTION AREA AND REALLY DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 15Z. NAM APPEARS
TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS IN THE COLD POOL
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT THE TIMING IS SIMILAR...ENDING BY
17Z WITH LOW CIGS FAVORED THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. KCMH/KLCK WILL SEE A
LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BUT COULD STAY VFR FOR A LOT OF THIS
MORNING.
AS NW WINDS KICK IN WITH A STRONG GUST TO 25-30KT...DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY REMOVE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
IN THE EVENING UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. WEST WINDS WILL JUMP
BACK UP TO THE 10-20KT RANGE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
921 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
NOT MUCH GOING ON OUT THERE AS OF 9 PM. HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AFTER 11 PM AS LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
ELEVATED...LIKELY BASED BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. PARCELS LIFTED FROM
THIS LEVEL WILL TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AROUND 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. THEY WILL HOWEVER BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST WIND SHEAR...AND THUS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MOST OF THIS SHEAR. BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY...STILL SEEMS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL TO AROUND QUARTERS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
QUESTION IS WHERE DO STORMS INITIATE...AS THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE LIKELYHOOD OF STORMS ACTUALLY SHOULD INCREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. THE 22Z AND 0Z
HRRR RUNS SEEM REASONABLE...SHOWING STORMS FORM AROUND 04Z ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A CHAMBERLAIN TO CANTON TO STORM LAKE LINE...WITH AREAS
TO THE SOUTH STAYING CAPPED. THERE IS A QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL THOUGH...WITH THE RAP INITIATING STORMS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER...SUGGESTING THE WHOLE CWA GETS IN ON THE ACTION...AND
THE 0Z NAM NOT INITIATING UNTIL THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...LEAVING
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. FOR NOW...BELIEVE THE MIDDLE GROUND HRRR
SOLUTION IS MOST LIKELY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER
THE COMING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALL THESE ELEMENTS ARE POISED TO
PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
MID/LOWER LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION AS A 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME...AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE OF COURSE EXHIBITING THE
USUAL DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL TREND IS
FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR TOWARD 06Z...THEN EXPAND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR RESIDES IN THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO DROP OFF
JUST A SMIDGE IN THE LATE EVENING...THINK JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION IF WINDS
DONT DROP OFF AS SOON AS ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTING CLOSE TO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
THAT POINT...THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP WITH MOISTURE POOLING...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES. THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR PRECIPITATION TO TAPER DOWN FROM THE SOUTH
BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WILL AGAIN BE A WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY IN A TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER MIXING LOOKS TO NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD AS
TODAY...SO MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONGEST WINDS. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...THINK WE WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. AGAIN WILL SEE A WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MONDAY COULD PROVE TO BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL...AT LEAST
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD WRAP INTO THE AREA BUT OF
COURSE THE PLACEMENT OF THIS DRY SLOT NOT VERY WELL AGREED UPON...SO
WILL NEED TO HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. IF
THE DRY SLOT IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH COULD END UP JUST BEING A CLOUDY
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLY DAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN IN THE
FAR EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ROTATES BACK TO THE WEST. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALMOST NIL
A SMALL SHORT LIVED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH A WARM FRONT
SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE MN/IA BORDER...A THIN LAYER OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND A GRADIENT OF HIGHER 0 TO 1 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES SOME BRIEF ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS
IF A FEW UPDRAFTS CAN GET GOING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SWING
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO EXPECT RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE ALONG WITH THIS. WILL LOWER HIGHS A BIT IN THE EASTERN
CWA AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING
MUCH. LOOKING AT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A SLOW RECOVERY
FROM THE ABYSMAL SLOW MOVING/CUT OFF LOW. STILL A THREAT FOR RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY IN THE EASTERN CWA
AS LOBES OF VORTICITY CONTINUE TO SWING WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD A VERY
GRADUAL WARM UP WILL FOLLOW. HOWEVER PRETTY MUCH LOOKING LIKE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME HOPE FOR NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
PATTERN INCREASES HAD TO GO AHEAD AND INCREASE WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF ABOUT 20 TO 40
MPH ALL THREE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
THERE WILL THEN BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS MAINLY AFTER 06Z
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANSITIONING TO SOME DRIZZLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AS EARLY
AS 18Z AND AGAIN LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. HAIL AND VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX...PUSHING THE
LIMITS NEAR EXTREME WITH THE VERY HIGH WIND GUSTS. BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT...THEREFORE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BARELY BE
HELD AT BAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
939 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS /WSR-88D VAD
WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF 8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM KLZK/KSGF SHOW AN 850-800 MB CAPPING INVERSION
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS WEAKER AT KJAN/KSHV.
LATEST 00Z WRF IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO COME IN AND THUS FAR
INDICATES THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z WRF
AGREES WITH THE 26/23Z HRRR RUN THUS FAR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF POPS SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE OVERALL.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
.SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM...MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER IN THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND
EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AFTER 10 AM. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE WARM MOIST AIR MAY CAUSE A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH EAST BY 4 PM THUS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
EAST BY THIS TIME.
SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN ARKANSAS
BETWEEN 7-9 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...QUESTIONS
EMERGE IF THEY WILL REMAIN SEVERE DUE TO WAINING INSTABILITY.
ON MONDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT THE DRY LINE
TO HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LINE WILL BE THE SOURCE OF REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN QUESTIONS
EMERGE ON IF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SEVERE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS INSTABILITY WAINS.
ON TUESDAY...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO ALABAMA/MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WIDESPREAD THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY TIME FRAME AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER
AROUND THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTH AND BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH LATE TOMORROW. WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF VICINITY THUNDER AT
MEM FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK WE WILL SEE A BREAK
IN WIDESPREAD THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PREVAILING IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL LEAVE PREVAILING THUNDER OUT AT MEM FOR
NOW...LIKELY ADDING IT AT 00Z IN THE NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE. WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED TSRA AT JBR AFTER 22Z. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND VIS WILL LIKELY DROP TO
IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. EXPECT NUMEROUS
AMENDMENTS BASED ON RADAR TOMORROW AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...APPROACH AND MOVE AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY GENERALLY 10 KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 TOMORROW
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
The primary concern regarding the 00z TAF package is the potential
for convection during the evening and overnight hours. Model
guidance continues to be all over the place, ranging from
isolated evening thunderstorms becoming more widespread overnight,
to basically nothing. We have a few cells developing at this time
and I think the latter solution is more likely with the best
chance of precipitation occurring across the Big Country. I do
have VCTS included for a few hours at KABI but left the remaining
sites dry for now. Additional development of thunderstorms is
possible overnight as a Pacific cold front moves across the CWA, but
confidence remains low.
We`ll see gusty winds overnight with low-level moisture increasing
ahead of the Pacific cold front. I expect MVFR ceilings to affect
KJCT and KBBD for a few hours after midnight but strong west winds
will bring much drier air in from west TX, quickly shunting that
moisture off to the east. Sustained westerly winds of 20-30 kts,
gusting to around 35 kts, are expected tomorrow at KSJT and KABI
with slightly lower wind speeds at the remaining terminals. The
result will be strong west to east crosswinds and patchy blowing
dust causing occasional visibility reductions. An Airport Weather
Warning will likely be issued later for KABI due to these
strong winds.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Conditionally severe thunderstorm threat tonight, mainly in the
Big Country and Concho Valley. West Central Texas is certainly
unstable with RUC SB CAPES up to 3000 J/KG, but warm air aloft may
prevent storms from occurring. Surface Observations show only weak
low level convergence along the dryline. Some virga indicated in
the Big Country from Abilene to west of Wichita Falls, but the mid
level instability associated with it appears to be fairly high,
above 10000 FT AGL.
Both the GFS and the HRRR models develop isolated storms in the
Big Country this evening, with the GFS the only one to develop
storms later tonight, as a Pacific front catches up with dryline
towards midnight. Region should become more unstable as cooler air
aloft moves in as an upper trough approaches. There will also be
stronger low level convergence, with west winds behind the Pacific
front. But storm development is still conditional.
Strong downslope west warming winds expected Sunday behind the
Pacific Front. Should see Wind Advisory criteria of 25 to 35 mph,
with gusts to 45 mph by mid-morning. Have a Red Flag Warning for
dangerous fire conditions from 11 AM to 10 PM.
FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning for fire weather is in effect for West Central
Texas from 11 AM to 10 PM.
Dangerous fire weather conditions Sunday as the dryline and
Pacific front sweep through, bringing dry and windy west winds
Minimum RH values will fall near 10 percent with 20 foot west
winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Added Mason and San Saba
counties to the Red Flag Warning as 20 foot winds will be close to
20 mph.
Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected Monday due to
gusty west winds and very dry conditions.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Warm and dry weather will prevail on Monday, with cooler
temperatures Tuesday through next Friday.
The large closed upper low will be centered over the Central
Plains late this weekend, and will move slowly northeast to the
Great Lakes region by mid week. Associated surface low currently
over eastern Colorado this evening, will move northeast into
eastern Nebraska Sunday evening. Monday will be another warm day
with gusty west winds once again with afternoon highs in the mid
and upper 80s. A cold front will move across the area Monday
night, bringing much cooler temperatures for Tuesday, with highs
mainly in the 70s.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the area Tuesday through
much of next week. A persistent surface ridge will remain in place
and will result in unseasonably cool temperatures for West
Central Texas through Friday. High temperatures through Friday
will be mainly in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
Warmer weather is expected next weekend with near seasonal
temperatures. No rain is forecast through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 88 51 83 48 / 40 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 63 90 51 88 49 / 30 0 0 0 0
Junction 66 92 50 90 47 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY...WITH MVFR STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRATUS TO STAY ABOVE 020 IN METROPLEX AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
AT WACO...GUIDANCE HAS MORE SPREAD...WITH GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
INITIALLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG SFC WARM FRONT BEFORE 09Z THAT
COULD BE FOG OR IFR. MODELS THEN LIFT CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS. RAP SUGGESTS STRATUS AS DOES TTU WRF. WILL KEEP
LOW MVFR STRATUS FOR NOW.
TSRA THREAT APPEARS LOW FOR METRO TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR WACO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. EXTENT OF
SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT 12Z MODELS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKENDS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES IS BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND CONFIDENCE
GROWS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST
OF THE CWA WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
SURFACE FOCUS OF THE DRYLINE TO SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WEST OF THE
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
OUR CWA IS THE TIMING OF ANY EASTWARD MOVING STORMS MAKING IT INTO
THE CWA AND THE STRENGTH OF A CAP EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 03Z WHERE SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN. THIS WINDOW WILL
ALSO BE AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND LCLS
BEGIN TO LOWER. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT
BEFORE THE CAP WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...ENDING SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION.
THE FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN TURN TO ELEVATED CONVECTION.
INCREASING LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8-8.5
C/KM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL FROM THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
SEVERE CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AND THEREFORE THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES
WILL BE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY..THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. THE INITIAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. IT IS SOMETIMES SAID THAT
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STORMS CAN BE NEGATIVE FOR AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ON SUNDAY THIS WILL IMPROVE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT WILL FALL INTO THE CAP. AIR WITHIN THIS LAYER IS DRY
AND WARM...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION ENCOUNTERS THIS...THE AIR WILL
COOL AND MOISTEN AS RAIN EVAPORATES. THEREFORE...COOLING BY
PRECIPITATION AND LIFTING OF THE CAP AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE THE CAP AROUND 18-19Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE.
THEN THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THE ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO
RECOVER BY THE AFTERNOON FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL...WITH THE NAM INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BY MID-DAY. THIS ISNT TOO
WARM...BUT THESE TEMPS WILL WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS
ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE NAMS FORECAST IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES WITH 0-3 HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 WHILE THE
GFS IS A BIT LESS. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL IN THE DAY 3
PERIOD AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FINED TUNED AS MESOSCALE
FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THERE IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
THE OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WHAT EXACT ROLE THAT WILL
PLAY ON AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES.
STORM CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. NORTH FLOW
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS STUCK IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 64 88 71 90 / 0 0 5 40 40
WACO, TX 85 61 86 68 89 / 0 0 5 20 20
PARIS, TX 80 54 86 68 80 / 0 0 5 40 60
DENTON, TX 84 60 86 71 87 / 0 5 5 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 87 71 87 / 0 0 5 40 40
DALLAS, TX 85 64 89 71 90 / 0 0 5 40 40
TERRELL, TX 82 58 86 69 84 / 0 0 5 30 50
CORSICANA, TX 85 60 86 71 85 / 0 0 5 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 86 64 87 70 89 / 0 0 5 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 85 60 90 70 88 / 0 5 10 50 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TO NEAR KUTS AT 0445Z AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
LIVINGSTON TO BRENHAM BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE NAM12 AND HRR
MODELS BOTH AGREE WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z FROM KCXO SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 14Z OR 15Z WITH VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 01Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KSHV TO KPSN TO KERV. THE
FRONT WAS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE RATHER MEAGER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
OF A PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE RAP BRINGS THE WIND SHIFT TO A
CALDWELL TO ONALASKA LINE BY 10Z. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A BIT
DIFFUSE DURING THE MORNING WITH ONSHORE WINDS REESTABLISHED
AREAWIDE BY 17Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6
INCHES WITH STRONG CAPPING AT CRP AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AT
LCH. RADAR SHOWED A FEW WEAK ECHOES SO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE GRIDS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. STRONGER WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT THE T/TD GAP IS
NARROWING SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ONCE SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. NEW ZONES OUT BY
900 PM. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 85 64 86 69 / 10 10 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 85 63 85 69 / 10 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 77 70 80 70 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
OVER LAKE ERIE AT 3PM...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THEN INTO LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRF AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS FRONT
AND THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z/10PM.
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY IS EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS TRANSITIONING FROM DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS MORE
TO LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MODEL WERE SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS AND SOME DECENT PRESSURE RISES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A HEADLINE.
THE AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND IS NOT MUCH COOLER...BUT SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND REMAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT AS A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE CONTROL. MAY SEE A RENEGADE -SHRA ACROSS
THE EXTREME NW SAT EVENING OTRW MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OMEGA
BLOCK ALOFT GAINS AMPLITUDE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COMPLICATED SCENARIO GIVEN A WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOISTURE
INCREASING UNDER THE SHARP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY
PLAY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AIR HOLDING THE LOW
LEVELS DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY MONDAY WHEN
GUIDANCE BRINGS A FAINT MID LEVEL WAVE UP UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOWLY INCREASING ISENT
LIFT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST/SE. RAIN CHANCES PICK
UP ON MONDAY AS A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE
DEVELOPING WEDGE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS DISORGANIZED FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL RUN WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY GIVEN ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND VEERING ALOFT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S SUNDAY PROVIDED ENOUGH INSOLATION...THEN COOLER PER ONLY 60S
WITHIN THE WEDGE AREA IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS AND 70-75
PERIMETER SOUTH AND SW ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN STORE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND THEN SPIRALS VERY SLOWLY NE
REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP AN INCREASING FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OVER AND
TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DEVELOPING WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY ON WILL GET DEEPLY ENTRENCHED MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY TUESDAY
AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSES AND FORMS A WEAK WAVE
ALONG THE COASTAL WARM FRONT. THIS COOL POOL SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BEFORE
PERHAPS WARM ADVECTION PUNCHES IT OUT LATER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONT ALOFT PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN GOING TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT THEN POSSIBLY A MORE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS
WED WEST AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES EAST PER GFS/EC BLEND. PENDING
LATER RUNS...THIS COULD BRING SOME WATER ISSUES TO SPOTS DESPITE
CURRENT DRYNESS PER LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. ALSO BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTH COULD POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT AS WELL PENDING HOW FAST THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT BY WED EVENING. OTRW BUMPING POPS FROM CHANCE
MONDAY NIGHT TO LIKELYS TUE AND CATEGORICAL INTO WED AFTERNOON.
ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO FINALLY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU BUT
LACKING MOISTURE BY THEN SO KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS. SHOULD DRY OUT
FURTHER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH ANY ISOLATED SHRA
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR NW AT BEST.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY UNDER THE WEDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COOL
DAY ON TUE AND MUCH OF WED BEFORE SEEING READINGS SURGE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE WED AFTERNOON. THUS PLAN TO STAY WELL BELOW MOS/HPC
ESPCLY ON TUE AND ACROSS THE NORTH WED. SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OR
ABOVE HIGHS THU THEN COOLER POST FRONTAL FRI WITH MOST IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z/6PM. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 22Z/6PM WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...FOR ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...DIMINISHING BY SUNSET SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE
MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO
PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JC/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
204 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO
PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING RNK 00Z/8PM SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE
INCREASING AROUND 718MB WITH A PWAT AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THE 18Z NAM
GFS AND HRRR HINT AT MOISTURE SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...MADE NO CHANGES
WITH FRIDAY CONVECTION. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.
AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RAISED EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SOLAR
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST
RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT ARRIVAL TIME FOR CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION
AND POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN ISC
GRIDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS
MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A
FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID
40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT.
POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF
THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC
KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME
30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME
OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS
REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS.
H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL
EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE
APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING
AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY
AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND 11AM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 21Z/4PM. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA
BY 21Z/4PM WITH RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...TONIGHT...
AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...DIMINISHING
BY SUNSET SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE
MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO
PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1018 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
LATEST KARX RADAR...SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 700 TO 500 MB
FRONOTOGENESIS. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH 27.09Z AND THEN WEAKENS
IT. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH THE PRECIPITATION THAT SHOWS UP IN THE
MESO MODELS...SO TRENDED THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
27.09Z TO BETTER MATCH THEM.
AFTER 27.09Z...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANPSORT IS
MOVING INTO THIS AREA AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
RAIN AND WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSONS BAY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WI WHILE STRENGTHENING CYCLOGENESIS WAS
TAKING PLACE ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS IN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING 850-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS VICINITY OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF MN INTO WESTERN
WI WILL LIKELY PRODUCE INCREASING BAND OF ACCAS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL
IN EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE
INCREASING INTO THE 250-500J/KG RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT PER THE NAM.
PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH OF I-
94...TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NERVOUSLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY...MAY ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN
THERE AND POINTS NORTH.
PLAN ON SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED-
SCATTERED THUNDER FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. IT WILL
BE WINDY AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY HIGH AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP INTO THE
20-30 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS WEST OF THE RIVER IN THE
WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA 40-45 MPH. FOR THIS
REASON...OPTED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE MORE WIND-PRONE
AREAS FROM 9AM-9PM SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE...WILL BE A RAW DAY IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH THE
WIND AND SHOWERS.
SURFACE LOW LINKS UP WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TAPPING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOCUSING RIGHT INTO THE AREA FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THIS
PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE. THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT...THE 26.12Z
ECMWF SHOWING SOME 750-1000J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE NOSING TOWARD
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
FOR SUNDAY NIGH THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW AMBLES ITS WAY INTO IA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
MAIN FOCUS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A WEAKENING TREND AND SHIFTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94. WILL BE WATCHING AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS THIS AREA GETS VERY CLOSE TO
SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. NAM SHOWING
MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 600-1100J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A PRETTY DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 50S/A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTION
OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING TROWAL SIGNATURE MOISTURE WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS OUT OF IA AND
ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTION
OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
FOR WEDENESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL/SHOWERY PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED LOW
CAMPS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION.
RAINFALL DOES LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THOUGH...BUT SHOWERY
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL NONETHELESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KRST
THROUGH 27.01Z. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MISS KLSE...
SO DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF FOR THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 27.06Z AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH 27.21Z. WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW...NOT EXPECTING
ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR
AT KRST AROUND 27.11Z AND THEN STAY THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLSE.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL
PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...AND 35 KNOTS
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WITH TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NEARING 2 INCHES...EXPECT RISES
ON AREA RIVERWAYS. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THIS RAINFALL
WILL PUSH A FEW AREA RIVERS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
KICKAPOO...TURKEY...UPPER IOWA RIVERWAYS. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH BUT REMAINING BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.
SHOULD HEAVIER RAIN MATERIALIZE WITH SAY ANOTHER 1 INCH OR MORE
OCCURRING THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING COULD
RESULT.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND PASS ALONG TO THE NIGHT
SHIFT TO ASSESS WITH HOPEFULLY BETTER MODEL RESOLUTION. FEELING
RIGHT NOW IS THIS IS NOT A QUICK RESPONSE/FLASHY SITUATION GIVEN
LOWER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE HYDROLOGIC ESF STATEMENTS FOR
NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LATEST RAP IS SHOWING THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA GETTING CLIPPED BY SOME 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST REMAINS IN MORE
NEUTRAL TERRITORY CLOSE TO THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE AXIS. I MAY NEED
TO TRIM BACK THE POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THIS INITIAL PHASE. THE
LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND WITH THE TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THE DRY FEED FROM THE EAST WILL ONLY INCREASE.
ALSO...THE COLD LAKE AIR IS CREEPING INLAND...SO A CHILLY...BREEZY
NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THE CORE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FINALLY PUSHES IN.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FLOWING IN
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CIG BASES RATHER HIGH. SHOWERS
WILL BE TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THE DRY WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE FINALLY ROTATES UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MAIN OPERATIONAL CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG AND
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20
TO 30KT RANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
THEY ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE BROKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FIRST PUSH OF
850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE TRYING TO SATURATE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM LATER TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL DRY AIR
TRYING TO BE OVERCOME ON GFS/RAP SOUNDINGS. BEST SHOT WILL BE IN THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS THERE...AND
LOWER POPS TO THE EAST.
SECOND ROUND OF 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN FOR SUNDAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW
LEVELS SATURATING DURING THIS TIME...BUT MID LEVELS THEN DRY OUT.
AGAIN...BEST SHOT WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE. HIGH POPS WERE KEPT IN THE WEST...AND LOWER IN THE EAST.
GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TRYING TO MIX DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL TRACK FROM NE TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD FROM
SUN NT THROUGH MON. THE MAIN WARM...MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WITH PWS
AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI DURING THIS TIME. A
CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND WPC YIELDS 1.5-2.00 INCHES FROM SUN NT-MON
NT. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME BROADER AS IT MOVES INTO
IL ON TUE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
WITH THE OCCLUSION GETTING CLOSE TO SRN WI OR PERHAPS DRIFTING
INTO FAR SRN WI...HIGH TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS BUT DETAILS WILL MATTER. ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
ADDRESS THE RISE IN RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
ON SOME RIVERS.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A NEW ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM MI NWWD TO LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR TUE NT AND WED. FAR ERN WI COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN AREA. THIS NEW LOW WILL THEN OCCLUDE
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THUS SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THIS EVENING
ACROSS TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT
TIMES TONIGHT.
EAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BY SUNDAY AT ALL SITES. GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT...LASTING INTO SUNDAY. SOME 32
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS 1500 FOOT WINDS MAY
REACH 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO NEGATE MENTION FOR NOW.
VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEST CHANCES AT
MADISON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION IN TAFS FOR MADISON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN SITES MAY NOT SEE THE SHOWERS UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON UNTIL
21Z TUESDAY...WITH AREAS NORTH OF THERE STARTING AT 09Z SUNDAY UNTIL
21Z TUESDAY. PERSISTENT AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH WAVES ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL...BUILDING INTO THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DO NOT THINK GALES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...AS
INVERSION ABOVE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT MIXING OF WINDS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT BEST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
624 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND BISECTING
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...NORTHEAST
WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER MUCH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK
DUE TO THESE CLOUDS AND RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. LOOKING OUT TO THE
WEST...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER A SHARP MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ALSO TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH RETURN FLOWING INCREASING. AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...HUDSON BAY HIGH RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING BUT DRY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH...40-50 KTS OF FLOW WILL
RIDE OVER THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO LOWER OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND VARIOUS MODELS BRING IN LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE AREA BY 09Z. BECAUSE OF THE DRY EAST FLOW...THINK THIS IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE AND HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MAY HAVE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 09-12Z
SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE BUT STILL THINK THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT. THE EAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY AND DAMP. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE EASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DRY
AIR WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE GRADUALLY...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT...BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH PWATS
OVER AN INCH SUPPORT LIKELY POPS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE
SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT
DEPENDING UPON THE COVERAGE OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
THE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL GO WITH
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
PCPN TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND STRONG E-NE WINDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA.
THIS WILL CAUSE PCPN TO SLOWLY SHIFT NE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH ITS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED ACROSS FAR N/NE
WI...DUE TO DRY AIR FEEDING OUT OF A STRONG HUDSON BAY HIGH. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR. FARTHER
SOUTH...ACROSS C/EC WI...QPF AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED AN INCH
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GERADIENT
WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG NE WINDS (GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH) ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE FOX VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE...REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROF AND SHIFT NE INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE IN THE FCST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THE BEST
CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR AS STRONG S/W TROFS ROTATE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND OVER NORTHERN WI LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE WI LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S...THROUGH MIOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME MODERATION
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE BATTLE FRONT BETWEEN A
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW FROM A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD PCPN INTO THE WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST.
ANTICIPATE LIGHT SHOWERS TO AT LEAST MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER DRY AIR MAY CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS TO A
LOW VFR CONDITION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL
RIVERS STILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL. PLAN TO ISSUE AN ESF AND MENTION
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET/DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PLAN ON
THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. A RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH VFR VSBY. LOOK FOR
THE WINDS TO SWING MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST SATURDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 14KFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
WELL AFTER 14-15Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
711 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENSE FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET TO ALMOST ZERO IN SOME
AREAS. DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE
AREAS EXPERIENCING THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KRST THROUGH AROUND
1330Z THIS MORNING THEN THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. PLAN ON 4SM BR AT KSLE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 15
TO 17 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ095-096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ009>011-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KRST THROUGH AROUND
1330Z THIS MORNING THEN THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. PLAN ON 4SM BR AT KSLE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 15
TO 17 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
THE PCPN HAS CLEARED EAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS A FEW HOURS BEHIND
IT. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ALREADY REACHED KRST...AND EXPECT IT TO DO
THE SAME FOR KLSE AROUND 06Z. WITH SCT/SKC SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AND A SATURATED NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE RECENT
RAINS...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BECOMES A CONCERN. LATEST
BUFKIT/NAM12 SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN INVERSION DEVELOPING OFF THE
SFC...SUGGESTIVE OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP...ALA
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER. STILL...ENOUGH
FAVORS IT TO CONTINUE BR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE STILL
LOW IN JUST HOW LOW VSBYS COULD GO IN FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...SO WILL
STICK WITH 2-4SM FOR NOW. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING
GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 73 85 75 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
249 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR AND NARRE MODELS
SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING ALONG FL GULF COAST AND FL ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG/CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AGAIN. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZES TO MOVE INLAND REACHING THE INTERIOR
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHANCE TO
CHANCE AFTN/EVEN POPS AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE POSSIBLY
ENHANCING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE COLLISION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES WELL INLAND AND AROUND 80 COAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MONDAY WILL
FLATTEN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST...SO PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH MAINLY SEABREEZE AND SMALL SCALE INTERACTIONS AS THE
TRIGGERS. WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 80S
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF/GFS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SE GA WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION SATURDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO WILL KEEP
POPS CHANCE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS
SATURDAY NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
PROGGED TO BE STRETCHING OUT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...DO NOT
EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LIKE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. PATCHES OF MVFR BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE FL TERMINALS 08-12Z. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTN...WILL USE VCSH FOR GNV/VQQ. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS FOR
NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
A S TO SE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
FORMATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REACHED AT THREE RIVER ESTATES ON
THE SUWANNEE RIVER...THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON SEVERAL OTHER NE FL/SE GA
RIVERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 88 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 10
SSI 79 67 80 67 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 88 63 89 67 / 20 10 20 20
SGJ 81 67 84 67 / 10 10 20 20
GNV 89 66 88 65 / 30 20 20 20
OCF 89 65 89 65 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS ARRIVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE DRY-LINE...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ROBUST AND
HIGHER END SEVERE EPISODE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY-LINE SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR
EXPECT TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
ERODED MORE QUICKLY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE FOR MORE BUOYANT INITIAL UPDRAFTS WHERE SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADIC STORMS BESIDES LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE DRY-LINE SHOULD PUSH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z-23Z.
THERE IS CONCERN BEHIND THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A DRIER AND DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE. BESIDES A WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AREAS OF HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST AND PERHAPS SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY
REPORTING SOME OF THIS AS OF VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING
DIURNALLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTING
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BROADEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MAIN CONCERNS: STRONG WINDS...MORNING MVFR CIGS...THUNDERSTORMS.
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY TRY TO
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT
HUT...ICT...CNU WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TS MENTION
AT HUT...ICT...AND CNU FROM 09Z ONWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AREA-WIDE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY EVENING.
JMC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY-LINE.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH GFDI VALUES AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO
MONDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 49 70 46 / 30 10 20 20
HUTCHINSON 78 47 69 44 / 20 10 20 20
NEWTON 77 47 68 45 / 30 10 20 20
ELDORADO 79 48 70 46 / 40 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 49 72 47 / 40 10 20 20
RUSSELL 75 44 65 42 / 20 20 20 30
GREAT BEND 75 45 66 42 / 10 10 20 30
SALINA 78 47 67 44 / 30 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 78 47 68 44 / 20 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 80 51 73 47 / 60 10 20 20
CHANUTE 79 50 71 46 / 60 20 20 20
IOLA 78 50 70 46 / 60 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 80 50 72 47 / 60 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
00Z TOP sounding showed an elevated mixed layer capping off surface
based convection. The dryline has retreated west this evening
across western Kansas. Therefore have cut back on the
precipitation chances until after midnight where chances will
continue to increase after 09Z. Strengthening low level jet as
well as isentropic lift in the 305K to 310k layer and increasing
ascent ahead of the upper trough moving across the Rockies should
kick off storms in the overnight hours. HRRR continues to develop
convection from southwest and south central Kansas and then move
it northeast into the cwa in the 09Z-11Z time period. Current
forecast accounts for this scenario very well.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Focus on the period is the isolated severe storm potential early
this evening, followed by scattered severe storms being possible
early Sunday morning and afternoon.
A strong and windy afternoon across northeast Kansas as temperatures
warmed into the lower 80s. Wind gusts ahead of a deepening lee
trough ranged between 30 and 40 mph during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Dryline has setup across western Kansas as moisture
pulls northward, noted by upper 50s to near 60 degrees in central
Kansas, dropping to the low 20s in far western Kansas.
For late this afternoon into early this evening, short and long term
guidance is consistently indicating the dryline to bulge eastward
into north central Kansas. Strong convergence along and just ahead
of the boundary may provide just enough lift to erode the capping
inversion in place over far north central areas. Surface based CAPE
values increase to 1500 J/KG as effective bulk shear peaks near 45
kts. Strong boundary layer mixing by late afternoon lifts LCL
heights to around 4000 feet. Current thinking is that isolated
thunderstorms are possible over north central KS during the early
evening hours (generally after 6 PM). The higher LCL heights and
less than ideal moisture return leaves the tornado threat low for
this evening. Main threat with these thunderstorms will be the large
hail and localized damaging wind gusts. These storms are expected to
track northeast into Nebraska through the evening hours. Conditions
remain dry elsewhere. Moisture return and increased cloud cover keep
lows mild in the middle to upper 60s.
Moisture advection increases overnight into Sunday as the strong
upper low lifts northeast through Colorado into northwest Kansas.
Widespread, broad ascent increases over southern into portions of
northeast Kansas generally after midnight as an 80 kt mid level jet
streak rounds the base of the wave. The increasing lift combined
with steepening mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE values approaching
3000 J/KG sets the stage for another cluster of thunderstorms to form
in the vicinity of southern Kansas, tracking eastward across
portions of north central and east central KS. Latest short term
guidance is not as aggressive with widespread precip developing
further north so have lowered pops to chance and kept highest
chances south of Interstate 70. Main threats with these storms would
be large hail and strong winds.
Uncertainty increases from early morning through the afternoon on
Sunday. Most guidance progs the dryline to surge eastward between 7
to 10 AM with showers and thunderstorms possible over the area,
remaining elevated in nature due to the strong surface inhibition in
place. A few storms may be severe with large hail and gusty winds
possible. Main limiting factor would be if these storms create a
stable surface layer, limiting surface based cells from developing
in the afternoon. Daytime heating and sunshine would allow the
surface instability to increase by afternoon, however the increasing
surface moisture should hold the overcast skies for much of the day.
Assuming convection impacts mainly areas just south of the CWA and
perhaps north central areas, much of east central KS would remain
precip free for a short time, resulting in a higher risk for severe
weather during the late morning into the afternoon. By 1 PM the
dryline is shown to be roughly along a line from Washington, to Clay
Center, and Abilene. Increased chances for thunderstorms to likely
east of this area as the weak capping inversion is able to erode as
surface based instability raises to over 2000 J/KG. Maximizing bulk
shear in excess of 50 kts suggest strong rotating updrafts,
including supercells. The parallel orientation of the winds to the
boundary suggest line segments with embedded areas of rotation are
also possible. Individual cells stand the best chance of a tornado
potential while other modes face a large hail and damaging wind
hazard. Best areas to be impacted by these storms are along and east
of highway 99 through the early evening as the storms and attendant
dryline push eastward.
In addition to the thunder, southerly winds remain gusty through
Sunday with sustained speeds between 20 and 25 mph with gusts near
35 mph. Dewpoints sharply falling over north central Kansas during
the late afternoon Sunday raise the fire danger to very high.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
Line of storms moving through far eastern Kansas Sunday afternoon
may linger into the evening hours and have kept a chance far east
to accommodate that potential. Dryline and unstable air push
eastward, leaving area under northwest flow through the boundary
layer Monday and Monday night. A cooler day expected with highs in
the 60s. Chance for rain returns on Tuesday as moisture sags
southward as upper low drops into the Central Plains.
Accumulations are forecast to be light. Repeat performance each
day Thursday and again Friday as lobes of energy rotate around the
upper trof over the Great Lakes states and keep rounds of clouds,
showers, and cool temperatures over the area. May see some
improvement by the weekend as trof makes slow eastward progress
and temperatures could come back up into the 60s. Overnight lows
from the upper 30s on Wednesday night come into the lower 40s by
Thursday night and Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MVFR stratus cigs are expected to form or move in from the south
in the 09Z-11Z period. In addition convection is likely to develop
with an increase in areal extent in the 11Z-18Z time period and
have included a tempo group for now. Surface winds south to
southeast will increase to around 18kts with gusts to near 28 kts.
Dry line timing still not solid but looks like it will move
through MHK around 18Z and TOP and FOE in the 20Z to 21Z time
frame. Skies become vfr after 23Z but winds will remain gusty from
the south.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEG-TILT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH BUILDING 5H HGTS AND AMPLIFYING RDG OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTED IN A DRY ERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE ONLY REVEALS SOME BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FM
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN SPILLING INTO UPPER MI.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE AZ/CO BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
MID-LVL AND SFC LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. WAA PCPN LIFTING
THROUGH MN AND NRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN BREAKING APART ON THE NRN EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND DRY ERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH.
DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY EVIDENT
FM 00Z KGRB AND KINL SNDGS. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAN
TOWARD DRIER SOLN OF NAM AND REG GEM FOR OUR FCST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. GENERALLY EXPECT
THAT PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH TODAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN (NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) FINALLY REACHING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG GREAT LAKES IN E-NE FLOW TO MID
40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT NE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD
DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE
THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU
AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS SASK. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
N TO NE FLOW INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP SHOWED A CLEARING TREND
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND DAYTIME MIXING HELPING TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH...DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME LIGHT EAST WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TOWARD THE LOWER 20S INLAND NORTH AND TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE WI
BORDER.
SUN...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WAA PCPN AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH UPPER MI AS IT
SPREADS THROUGH WI. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT ERLY LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE BELOW 750 MB...PER FCST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT THAT THE PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI AND
THE KEWEENAW...THE EAST WIND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE TO
35KTS OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EAST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO
TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO THU AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM JAMES BAY DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
RESIDING WELL WEST OF THE STATE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN HAS BEEN VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE
STABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN RESIDENCE. THE LOW STRATOCUMULUS THAT
PLAGUED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...FORCED FROM COLD AIR
ADVECTION....RAPIDLY DISSIPATED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TRACKED OVERHEAD. THE LOSS OF
CLOUD TOP COOLING SEEMED TO HAVE AN ALMOST INSTANTANEOUS IMPACT ON
THE CLOUD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF
CLOUDS FOR THE DAYBREAK HOUR AS IT IS A TOUGH TASK TO GAIN SOME
HANDLING ON THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUD. WITH THE BLOCKED NATURE OF THE
FLOW/TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...FAVOR A MORE TRANSPARENT HIGH CLOUD AND WILL BE VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODERATION OF THE
AIR MASS OF SOME 4C AT 850MB BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF
MORE INSOLATION...DECIDED TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME LOCATIONS OVERACHIEVING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CHILLY EASTERLY WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP SOME DENIZENS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
UNSATISFIED FOR A SECOND DAY.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD NEAR SURFACE
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED OFF OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. FOR
THESE REASONS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA APPROACH LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AROUND
12Z...BUT FEEL THE POTENTIAL TO MEASURE A HUNDREDTH IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A PRECIPITATION MENTION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NEBRASKA BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE
PREVALENT LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE CIRCULATION/TROUGH UNGOES CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION IN SCALE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME...A POSITIONING THAT LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FIRMLY WITHIN THE EASTWARD FLANK OF THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDWEEK PERIODS. DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIATE A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE RESPONSE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NET RESULT BEING A
STEADY NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION IN 850-925 MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND TRANSLATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY...OWING TO THE OVERALL DEPTH OF EXISTING DRY LAYER
RETAINED WITH THE SURFACE-925 MB EASTERLY GRADIENT. THIS PARTICULAR
PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION...SUPPORTING THAT OF THE
ECMWF/NAM IN PROVIDING A MORE INCREMENTAL RAMP UP OF POPS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH...THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB LARGELY SEEING A DRY START TO THE
WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY BOTH FAVORABLE EXIT
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND SOME FORM OF WEAK CVA AS SHREDS OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY WORK THROUGH THE UPSTREAM CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
HIGHER END COVERAGE OF SHOWERS /CONTAINING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. QPF POTENTIAL IN THE HALF INCH
RANGE WITH THIS FIRST EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL LOCK TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
AREAWIDE.
LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...THE DETAILS SENSITIVE
TO PROPER PLACEMENT OF THE GOVERNING BACKGROUND DYNAMICS TIED
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LODGED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL ANCHOR
POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN AN ADDED DIURNAL COMPONENT
AND CONTINUED FAVORED PLACEMENT OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE RUN
POST-FRONTALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. HIGHER END
POPS REMAIN WARRANTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PATTERN
PERSISTENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY BREAK IN ACTIVITY
AT SOME POINT WITHIN ANY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THAT CAN
FILL IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
COOLER AIR WILL RAP BACK IN AROUND THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GOOD DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY. THIS WILL FIRMLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
/50S/...LIKELY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OUT WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE THUMB. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THESE
LOCALES. EXPANSION OF ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS BY MONDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
//DISCUSSION...
THE PATCH OF VFR STRATUS OVER FNT AND MBS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY
ERODED BY RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CLOUDS COULD BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
CLOUD COVER TO THESE SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH INTO THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS SASK. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN
N TO NE FLOW INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP SHOWED A CLEARING TREND
WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND DAYTIME MIXING HELPING TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH...DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE MID 40S OVER THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SOME LIGHT EAST WINDS...EXPECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TOWARD THE LOWER 20S INLAND NORTH AND TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE WI
BORDER.
SUN...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WAA PCPN AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH UPPER MI AS IT
SPREADS THROUGH WI. HOWEVER...WITH PERSISTENT ERLY LOW LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE BELOW 750 MB...PER FCST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT THAT THE PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI AND
THE KEWEENAW...THE EAST WIND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 TO 45.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
UPPER LOW BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD LUMBERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC LOW NEARBY THE UPPER LOW CENTER
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
GREAT LAKES. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED BLOCKING ALOFT ON ITS EDGES
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER INSTIGATORS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT SEEMS TO
ALWAYS BE A STRUGGLE FOR THE MODELS WITH THIS TYPE OF SITUATION WHERE
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUN INTO THE SFC HIGH
AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR A LOT
OF MID CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY
AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING. FARTHER NORTH...THINK LOWER SFC-H85 RH OUT
OF THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO ISOLD SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR AREAS IN THE
LOWER 40S ON MONDAY...BUT INLAND AREAS CLOSER TO WI BORDER AND OVER
THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE 50S WITH BETTER MIXING
HEIGHTS UP TO H85. POSSIBLE THAT MID 50S COULD OCCUR OVER FAR EAST IF
CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARRIVE...UPPER LOW
WILL BE EXERTING ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. EAST WINDS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS IN
ALL AREAS WELL BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS THIS PERIOD UPR 30S TO LOW
40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAINLY IN THE 40S INLAND. AS IT APPEARS
NOW...AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...SEEMS THAT PRECIPITATION COMES
IN TWO WAVES. FIRST MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SUPPORTED BY INITIAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS STEADIER
PRECIP COULD CHANGE TO MAINLY DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. PTYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE INITIALLY AS H85 TEMPS BLO ZERO OVER
THE WESTERN CWA AND SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING POINT TO POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RIGHT ON THE 1300-1305M LINE WOULD INDICATE DIFFERENCE
BTWN SEEING RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX WILL BE DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION
HEIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT
FOR AREAS IN THE RAIN/SNOW ZONE...BUT PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE
MORE IMPACTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMS ON
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL CWA. ANY MIX WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTN AS RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LIFTING IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS ALSO WHEN MAIN SFC LOW ARRIVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS HEADING EAST BY
THAT TIME...THERE IS HINT OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
UPR LAKES AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. KIND OF EARLY TO BE
LOOKING AT TROWAL SPECIFICS BUT THAT MAY BE WHAT MODELS ARE KEYING
ON TO BOOST QPF TOTALS ALONG TRACK OF H85 LOW TRACK. UPSLOPE NNW
FLOW MAY ALSO INCREASE TOTALS OVER WEST AND NCNTRL LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT TOTAL PRECIP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS...MAY REACH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH MORE PTYPE
ISSUES AGAIN AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR GRADUALLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SFC. H85 TEMPS DROP BACK BLO 0C SO
COULD SEE MORE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE WEST HALF OF CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. UNRAVELLING UPPER/SFC LOWS ONLY SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY /BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE/...BUT GRADUALLY POPS WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY
THAT TIME. CONSENSUS MAX TEMPS CONTINUING TO STAY BLO NORMAL ARE NOT
NECESSARILY DESIRED...BUT APPEAR REASONABLE TO CLOSE THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MADE FEW CHANGES TO CONSENSUS TEMPS/POPS/WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE TO
35KTS OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EAST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE WEST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO
TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED
INTO THU AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH TO
AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO
ADD TO THE RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
324 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE IMPACTS OF
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NAMELY THE
STRONG WINDS TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN
WAVES TODAY...WHICH WILL MEAN 1-3 HOUR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWED BY BRIEF RESPITES BETWEEN WAVES. HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS
DIFFICULT SCENARIO IN THE HOURLY POP GRIDS...WITH THE AID OF THE
HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY. AFTER THE MAIN NOCTURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY
EXITS THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE DURING THE MORNING...UNTIL MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH /WARM FRONT/ OVER SODAK/NE/IA LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. TONIGHT WILL BE
INTERESTING...PARTICULARLY FROM A HYDRO PERSPECTIVE...AS PWAT
VALUES SOAR TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FEEDS INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOCUS WILL
BE ON SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE 1-2 INCH SIX-
HOURLY AMOUNTS APPEAR ACHIEVABLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE PLACEMENT OF THE KEY PLAYERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER /I.E.
WARM FRONT/ APPEAR TO LIE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SURFACE BASED
STORMS /AND SEVERE ACTIVITY/ TO THE SOUTH OF MN/WI.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LOW WILL DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY MONDAY...THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND ON THE
WEAKENING SIDE AS IT BEGINS TO FILL AND MENANDER ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NE
BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AND VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT TO MOVE IT OUT QUICKLY...MODELS MAYBE
TOO FAST AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU/FRI. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...BASICALLY HOLDING THE UPPER LOW FROM MOVING TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. THE MEAN UPPER FLOW WILL BE EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WHICH LEADS TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW QUICK THIS SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.
WHAT THIS MEANS AT THE SFC IS A LONG PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND COOL CONDS. THE BEST CHC/S OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BEFORE
MONDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTN/EVENING SHRA IF ANY
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OCCURS. THERE IS EVEN A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER TEMPS WRAP AROUND THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. ALTHOUGH LIKELY AND HIGH CHC POPS
SEEM REASONABLE THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LOWERING OF THE CHC/S BY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. AGAIN...THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE GENERAL TREND TOWARD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS TO
BE INTACT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WHEN WE/LL SEE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES OF PCPN OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS... BUT TRENDED TOWARD
LATEST HRRR AND CAM SOLUTIONS. THESE SUGGEST CURRENTLY LINGERING
PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT... WITH
REDEVELOPMENT AND BLOSSOMING OF PCPN OVER THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING WORK INTO THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. THE REAL QUESTION
THEN BECOMES WHETHER AND WHEN WE/LL SEE GAPS IN THE PCPN... AND
WHEN LOWER CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE TO STAY. WAS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
IN HANGING ONTO HIGHER CEILINGS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST... MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM... BUT COULD CERTAINLY
SEE THAT NOT OCCURRING SHOULD THE LOW LEVEL MOISTEN MORE QUICKLY
THAN SUGGESTED. COULD ALSO SEE LOWER VISIBILITIES... BUT MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON PCPN RATES AND DEGREE OF BR WHICH OCCURS WITH THE PCPN.
KMSP...HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL TRENDS AND CHANGES...
BUT TIMING OF PCPN WAVES COULD EASILY DIFFER BY SEVERAL HOURS...
AND ULTIMATE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BE WORSE THAN INDICATED A
BIT SOONER. STRONG EAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO
BE A GOOD BET... BUT THE GUSTINESS IS STILL QUESTIONABLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR POSSIBLE. PERIODS
OF RAIN... CHANCE OF THUNDER. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING
NORTHEAST.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN... CHANCE OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WIND 10
TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES... IFR
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
NORTH.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RAIN LIKELY.
NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WESTERN WISCONSIN RIVERS SILL REMAIN A FOCI...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. AS OF NOW HOWEVER...THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
3+ TOTALS APPEAR TO LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WHAT
THE RIVERS IN WESTERN WI WOULD NEED FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE...THE RISK REMAINS LOW UNLESS CONVECTION TONIGHT GETS
OUT OF HAND FROM A HEAVY RAIN STANDPOINT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
054>058-064>066-073.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ067-074>077-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...TRH
HYDROLOGY...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1142 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
RED LODGE REPORTING 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW SO FAR...LIVINGSTON ASOS
IS MIXING WITH SNOW...JUDITH GAP OBS SUGGEST SNOW...AND WE
RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF SNOW NOW AT RAPELJE. BLX RADAR SHOWS
MIXED PCPN DOWN TO ABOUT 4500 FEET...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE VARIETY OF REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME WX/SNOW/TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES...AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
COLUMBUS AND EDGAR AS OF 11PM AND IT IS NOT DONE YET. LOOKS LIKE
TOTALS WILL REACH AN INCH AND A HALF IN PLACES BETWEEN BILLINGS
AND BIG TIMBER BY THE TIME THE PCPN TAPERS OFF. MID LEVEL LOW
STILL PRODUCING SOME MODERATE PCPN IN THIS AREA...BUT DRIER AIR
NOTED NEAR CODY IS MOVING NORTHWARD. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN SO EXPECT PCPN IN OUR WEST TO TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT. FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO OUR EAST...NOTE THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN IN WESTERN SD AND EASTERN WY LIFTING NORTHWARD. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING N TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WY THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA. CAPES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING. THE CAPES WERE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY THE RAP AFTER 03Z...SO WILL ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE EVENING. BULK SHEAR WAS ALSO
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN SUPPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
COMPACT UPPER LOW WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH
AZ THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS SPREADING N OUT FROM THE
LOW IN SW FLOW ALOFT. MODELS AGREED THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH
SE CO BY 12Z SUN...ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO GO NEGATIVE TILT AND TAP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NE THROUGH MON INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LARGER CUTOFF WILL THEN MEANDER E MON NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AMORPHOUS LOW CENTERS WERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOWS WERE FORECAST
TO MERGE OVER NE OR E CO BY 12Z SUN WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MERGED LOW INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL FALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHIFTS TO SE MT...E OF
KBIL...DURING SUN MORNING DUE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE INVERTED
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E DURING SUN AND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SE MT. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL BE THIS EVENING OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...BUT DENDRITIC
GROWTH WILL BE HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEPT THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION GOING
OVER THE SE THROUGH MON WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHEST E OVER THE
DAKOTAS. ANOTHER THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT...WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED MON.
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SE MON NIGHT.
CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT
AND MON NIGHT. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SE SUN NIGHT. ONLY MADE SLIGHT POP AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S SUN AND MON.
STILL EXPECTING GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW BEGINNING
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE ESF FOR RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL EVOLVE
SLOWLY THROUGH MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL DRIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED WET AND COOL PATTERN FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH DAY... AND WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. WHILE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW SLOW
BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN... THURSDAY WILL FINALLY BE
WARMER AND DRIER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FINALLY BUILDS IN ALOFT
ALONG WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL VORTICITY BEING ADVECTED IN
TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A WETTER TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAN WE INITIALLY
THOUGHT. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELIES FOR
AREAS EAST OF FORSYTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY COOL ACROSS THE EAST ... WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER WEST
THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO MODERATE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAM SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD
AND ALLOWS FOR +10C 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ... GIVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW...HOWEVER THE
MAIN DETERRENT TO REALIZING THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY..WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY TAPER-
ING OFF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN FAVORS STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO SHERIDAN WY GIVEN THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES-
SURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE SHOWS 50 TO 70 PCT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
30 KTS FROM BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN AND ACROSS SE MT ON TUESDAY.
AFTER THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND ON THURSDAY... MODEL SOLU-
TIONS DIVERGE READILY. HOWEVER ... THE OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO
BE TOWARD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW... WHICH KEEP US FROM WARMING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL KEEP A SLGT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST TO END THE WEEK.
CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE THUNDER THREAT WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET WILL SEE WET SNOW
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST
FROM KBIL WEST TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST
OF KBIL ON SUNDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SNOW AND BE OBSCURED
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/056 036/051 035/053 036/057 037/062 039/065 041/058
+7/W 32/W 23/W 21/N 11/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 035/057 033/047 032/051 033/057 035/060 035/062 037/061
+5/W 33/W 23/W 11/B 11/U 12/W 22/W
HDN 041/056 033/051 035/052 033/058 032/061 035/066 038/059
99/W 65/W 34/W 42/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
MLS 043/047 034/047 035/048 032/051 033/058 037/063 039/058
9+/R 97/O 56/R 53/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 042/048 033/046 035/046 032/050 031/057 034/062 037/058
9+/R 97/O 56/R 53/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
BHK 042/045 033/044 034/042 031/049 031/054 034/058 036/057
8+/R +8/O 66/R 43/W 12/W 12/W 22/W
SHR 039/053 031/046 033/048 033/050 032/056 033/060 036/060
98/W 55/W 24/W 42/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
103 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE THIS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY TRYING TO WORK INTO OUR AREA...UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...MAXING OUT
AT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 37000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF
AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH
INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
PLENTY OF ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM
NEAR KMCK TO NEAR KGCK. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
WITH THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE REMAINING WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION THUS LIMITING ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA OVER OUR
AREA...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...CONVECTION
ALONG/NEAR THE DRY LINE SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THAT BEING SAID...A
~55KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 1KM WRF-
NMM BOTH SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20% POPS
ACROSS OUR EAST 03-06Z. THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST
DEEP-LAYER MUCAPE VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 100-200J/KG RANGE
TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EAST IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. CLOSER TO SUNRISE...ANOTHER ROUND CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR EAST AS THE AXIS OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND DRY
INTRUSION...MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 20% POPS ACROSS OUR EAST 10-12Z
SUNDAY...WITH POPS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE...WIND...DEW POINT AND SKY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENTLY OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
...WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS...
ALOFT: A POTENT/DEEP LOW WAS NEAR LAS VEGAS AND MOVING INTO AZ. THIS
LOW WILL HEAD E TO THE 4-CORNERS BY 7PM AND THEN BEGIN TO TAKE ON
NEGATIVE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE OVER ERN CO BY 7AM TOMORROW AND LIFT NE
INTO WRN NEB BY SUNSET.
SURFACE: EVOLUTION WILL BE COMPLEX. DEEP LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN FURTHER OVER ERN CO AND SHOULD BE DOWN TO ~983 MB BY 7PM. A
WARM FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND GRADUALLY LIFT TO NEAR THE NEB-KS
BORDER...WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB AND WRN KS. INTO
TONIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE SANDHILLS...WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING FURTHER INTO NEB. BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...THE PACIFIC COOL
FRONT WILL HAVE MERGED WITH THE DRYLINE AND THE OCCLUSION PROCESS
WILL BE UNDERWAY OVER NEB. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
TOMORROW AS THE COMBINED DRYLINE/FRONT PIVOTS CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 7AM-4PM. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WRAP
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW FROM 1PM-7PM.
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOT DOWN IN
PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...WHERE STOCKTON WAS 91F AT 3PM. BREEZY SE
WINDS...BORDERING ON WINDY. GRI REPORTED A 38 KT GUST AT 240 PM.
TONIGHT: WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO FIRE E
OF HWY 281. OTHERWISE...DRY/BREEZY/VERY MILD. USED CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS WHICH KEEPS LOWS IN THE 60S E OF HWY 183.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ADVECT N.
SEVERE: THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE ORGANIZING. THE PROBLEM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
TO SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE CAP. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT NO TSTMS
WILL FORM BEFORE SUNSET. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE PROBABILITY IS
ZERO. THERE IS A HINT OF A SMALL COLD FRONT ALOFT CURRENTLY
LIFTING NE FROM TX. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WILL LIFT N THRU THE FCST
AREA 7PM-1AM AND THIS COULD PROVIDE THE TRIGGER.
BASED ON HI-RES NONHYDROSTATIC MODELS...A SINGLE STORM MAY GO UP
AFTER 5 PM SOMEWHERE NEAR I-70 IN CNTRL KS. A COUPLE MORE STORMS
COULD JOIN IT FURTHER NE OVER S-CNTRL NEB. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE
TSTM THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY E OF HWY 281.
MLCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 2500-3000 J/KG AS A SWATH OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S LIFTS INTO NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODE...ESPECIALLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK FORCING. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
MOVE NE AROUND 15 KTS.
ALL THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AS MIXING
WANES THIS EVENING...0-1 KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS...
PUSHING THE 0-1 KM EHI TO 3-5...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO.
ANY TSTMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 10-11 PM.
SUN: HIGHLY VARIABLE. WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH STRATUS IN
SOME AREAS TO START THE DAY. THE STRONGEST QG FORCING WILL OCCUR
7AM-1PM...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ALOFT...INTERACTING WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
SO A NARROW ARC OF TSTMS COULD FORM FAIRLY EARLY AND RACE N INTO
THE SANDHILLS. THE EARLIER THE STORMS FORM...THE MORE SEVERE THEY
COULD BE. DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE SW WILL DIMINISH
INSTABILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CLEARING SHOULD THEN OCCUR BEHIND
THIS LINE...BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS MOVES IN BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS COULD TRIGGER A COUPLE SHWRS.
SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG /50 KTS/ AND
STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY N-NNW AT 50-60 MPH. HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF
BALLS AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE COLD
AND WARM FRONTS ARE PINCHING TOGETHER AT THE OCCLUSION.
WIND: AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA S OF
I-80. SUSTAINED WINDS MEETING THE CRITERION ARE IN THE FCST. THIS
POTENTIAL NEEDS TO BE RE-EVALUATED BY TONIGHT/S MID SHIFT. IN
COORDINATING THE DDC/GLD/LBF...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF. WHILE THE
GREATEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR MORE TO THE W...A TROPOSPHERE FOLD
COULD RESULT IN ABNORMALLY HIGH MIXING. THE 18Z NAM HAS THE LOOK
OF A "PV HOOK" WHICH COULD THREATEN A 1-2 HR PERIOD OF WARNING
CRITERIA WINDS /GUST 40+ AND OR GUSTS 58+/.
AS FOR FIRE WX...DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER
N-CNTRL KS FOR SUN AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RISE A BIT BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SO CURRENT MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 20%. ENOUGH FOR NEAR-CRITICAL MENTION IN THE
HWO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEASONABLY COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF APRIL AND BEGINNING TO THE MONTH OF MAY.
WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE AS WE WORK THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME MODEST INSTABILITY TO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTS NORTH...RESULTING IN AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO
ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL OFF AND ON AGAIN THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BEST PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY...WHEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND MID LEVEL WAVE
ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY TO START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL BE THE
WINDS...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY WINDY START TO THE WEEK. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH A DEEPER
LOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT ANY
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DID NOT INCREASE WINDS TO MATCH
SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS 35KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS OUR WEST ON MONDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT DID
REINTRODUCE A MENTION INTO THE HWO...AS IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WE
LIKELY WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR AT LEAST
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS LATE WEEK...EXPECT THE LOCAL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO MODERATE AS
HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THERE ARE SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE WIND
WILL ALSO BE RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO LOW CLOUDS ANYWHERE NEAR BY KGRI...BUT
FORECAST MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AS WE
NEAR DAWN AND BASED ON THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS SEEMS PRETTY
REASONABLE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BY
MID MORNING ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. KGRI SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR
FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH AS LATE AS MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE
DRY LINE WILL EVENTUALLY PASS THROUGH. THIS IS THE WINDOW WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL BE AROUND THE KGRI AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AS EXPECTED...THE 00Z KOAX INDICATED A HEALTHY CAP ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LIKELY PREVENTED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH THEY DID TRY AROUND 4 TO 6 PM WITH A
COUPLE OF CU CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
SOME CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATED IR IMAGERY...BUT IT FIZZLED.
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON THE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THOUGH IN THAT AREA...DESPITE NOTHING HAPPENING THUS
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WERE FINALLY STARTING TO FILTER ONTO
THE PLAINS...WITH 10 METER HEIGHT FALLS AT KOMA AND 40 TO 60 METER
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB TEMPS WERE +8
TO +10 ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CO...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE MAINTAINED JUST 20 PERCENT
CHANCE POPS FOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS IS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT THE FOCUS
COULD VERY WELL BE JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST
IOWA...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST 01Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...SHIFTING THE SLIGHT RISK
INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES.
THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING THAT THEN ROTATES
NORTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STORM SYSTEM IS DEEPENING AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PLAINS.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN US...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 170M CENTERED IN
THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER REGION...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. 300MB JET UP TO 130KT WAS STILL ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 105-115KT AROUND THE BASE AND TOWARD THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850MB MOISTURE AT 12Z WAS FOCUSED IN TWO
SEPARATE AREAS...ONE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND FROM WEST TX
THROUGH OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO AROUND 50KT
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK 850MB
FRONT WAS NOTED FROM LOW IN NORTHERN WY/SOUTHERN MT THROUGH NEB INTO
NORTHERN MO. 700-500MB DELTA-T OF 20-24C WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD
OK/WEST TX. SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST CO...WITH
WIND SHIFT WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NEB NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IA...AND WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER AS UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAD ADVANCED INTO
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL KS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS VERY CONDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION ON CWA MARGINS TONIGHT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW. RAP CONTINUES TO MIX OUT PROFILE
DEEPLY BY 23-00Z AND DEVELOP VERY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION...WHILE HRRR
HAS TRENDED FROM PRODUCING A CELL OR TWO THIS EVENING TO NEARLY
DRY...AND 12Z 4KM WRF KEPT THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS THAT DO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ARE DOING SO
JUST IN OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST CWA. HAVE KEPT A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE
SMALL AREA OF POPS ADVANCING FROM SOUTHEAST NEB TO NEAR THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE FOCUSING ON THE NORTHEASTERNMOST
FRINGE FOR TONIGHT.
AS UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD KS/NEB ON
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN EASTERN
NEB...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA QUICKLY. WITH ABUNDANT SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST FOR ANY
CONVECTION AS IT GETS GOING ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A BREAK
IN CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THAT AIRMASS WILL
HAVE TIME TO SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA IF NOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD...AND
THUS CONVECTIVE MODE/THREATS WILL BE MESSY AND COMPLICATED. WITH
VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ROTATING LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ENOUGH 0-1KM
SHEAR EXISTS FOR A TORNADO THREAT FOR STORMS IF THEY CAN STAND
ALONE...THOUGH WORTH NOTING THAT HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE STRAIGHT THAN
CURVED IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...SHOULD EXIT THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING CWA IN DRY SLOT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.
ONCE UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NEB...IT IS PROGGED TO STALL THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN FILL AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IOWA ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE WRAPAROUND AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS CWA REMAINS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD...AS AIRMASS REALLY
STABILIZES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND THE LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY DOWN INTO THE
50S AND LIKELY STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH 50 ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
GENERALLY COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SPECIFIC POP MENTIONS OUT OF MOST PERIODS
FOR NOW...BUT THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE TO GET AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE CWA ON SOME PERIOD. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING IN THE 50S THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE POSSIBLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S IN AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STILL A FAIRLY COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST. INITIALLY...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MVFR CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BY 09-10Z ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY 13-15Z. AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A DRY LINE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 12Z
SHOWED 100+KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE AXIS WAS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE WESTERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A GOOD
DRYLINE FROM EAST OF KHLC INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT 70S AND LOW 80S WERE OBSERVED WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS. FURTHER NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
BEING DEFINED IN THE SURFACE FIELD. WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WERE
QUITE STRONG...WITH GUSTS OF 35KTS TO 50KTS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
CURRENTLY...THE AREA IS IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS CAN
BE SEEN FROM WATER VAPOR AS THE FETCH OF DRY AIR COMES ALL THE WAY
INTO NEBRASKA FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE
IS BEING PUSHED INTO KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AS CAN BE SEEN BY
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS DRY AIR WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT YET THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH THE AREA THIS EVENING...MODELS SHOW THE WARM
SECTOR STAYING CAPPED AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE LATEST HRRR FROM 26.18Z DOES
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND 00Z. BUT
WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST. IF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY STORMS TONIGHT...WILL
NEED STORMS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY. DIDN/T REMOVE CHANCES COMPLETELY
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SEVERE
PARAMETERS DO INDICATE THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS. AND WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL HELICITY...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THINK SOME OF THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT ROBUST GETTING MID
TO UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WOULD VERY LIKELY PROHIBIT ANY STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOS.
FOR SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY BRING THE 500MB LOW INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES THOUGH IN THE WEST TO
EAST EXTENT AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT MUCH IT HAS A HIGH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS
IMPROVED...YET THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY AND CENTERED IN THE KLBF/KMCK AREA AT
00Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW. SO DID INCREASE
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS A SLOWER EASTERLY PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH KEEPS THE WINDS FROM INCREASING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
HOWEVER QUICKER MOVEMENT COULD MEAN STRONG WINDS OF 30KTS SUSTAINED
EARLIER. WILL LET ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE GO TO ALLOW MODELS TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES FOR WINDS DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY...INSTABILITY ISN/T TERRIBLY
HIGH...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 100J/KG TO 1500 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR CAN/T DISCOUNT ANY STORMS
AS WELL AS ANY STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN
WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA /EAST OF HIGHWAY 183/ WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER WATCHING THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BE IF ANY CONVECTION GOES UP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
THERE IS ONLY LOW INSTABILITY BUT WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD CAUSE ANY CONVECTION TO SPIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A PERSISTENT...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MEANDER FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A PLETHORA OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOR THESE PERIODS...THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WIND POTENTIAL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SURFACE LOW...WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS NEBRASKA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A NICE DEFORMATION BAND OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL TRANSITION
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOW FAR EAST THE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR SOME.
MORE ON THAT TWO PARAGRAPHS BELOW.
EVEN AT ONLY 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT...THE LATEST NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW
AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE NAM LIFTS THE H5 LOW FROM AROUND
ARNOLD NEBRASKA TO NORTH OF ONEILL NEBRASKA FROM 00Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
THE GFS LIFTS THE LOW FROM FAR EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY TO NEAR
SPRINGVIEW NEBRASKA DURING THE SAME PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS
THE LOW FROM WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO NEAR VALENTINE. NO
SURPRISE...THE NAM IS COLDEST AT H85 WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH H85 TEMPS OF 2 TO 3 C AT 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...FAVORING ALL RAIN OR POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX. ATTM...WILL
GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PTYPE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST GIVEN THE TRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
ATTM...WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS ATTM.
THEN THERE IS THE WIND THREAT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 12Z MONDAY...IE OVER
THE FAR NERN CWA...WHILE THE NAM12 HAS THE LOW NEAR SIOUX CITY IOWA.
NO SURPRISE...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE MET
VERIFIES...WE WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINE FOR AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
GFS SOLN...ANY WIND ADVISORY IF NEEDED WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THIS LEADS TO THE
HEADLINE DILEMMA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTER HEADLINES IN THE NERN
PANHANDLE OR WIND HEADLINES. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO COME IN.
ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
RIDGE WILL LIMIT ANY EWD MOVEMENT OF THE H5 LOW...WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AS
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. IN ADDITION TO COLD RAIN...VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW SETS UP ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AS THE MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z
TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CRAWL SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR AT LEAST A RAIN
SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL INSERT THIS IN THE UPDATED
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY 40+ KT H85
WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS WELL AND IS SHAPING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS H85 TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -2C TO 5C. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO FACILITATE AT LEAST A
RAIN SNOW MIX TROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER
EASTERN IOWA BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LIMITED CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE
LOWER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABSORBED
BY THE NRN STREAM AND LIFTED INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB SUNDAY MORNING IN
A BELT OF STRONG EAST WINDS. THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING WITH THIS
FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TSTM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM 15Z SUNDAY ONWARD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY CROSSING NEW MEXICO...LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WRN
NEBRASKA WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NM...COLO AND WY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MARK
THE BEGINNING OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WORSENING ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED WIND SPEEDS TO DROP TO 10
MPH OR LESS. THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER HAS ENDED AND THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRENCHMAN BASIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
318 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILIAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LOWERING NEAR IFR AFTER
SUNSET. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO 04 UTC HRRR FOR POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT HAS DONE WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
THUS FAR. AS OF 06 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
SOUTH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR...EXPECT
THE WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FROM 09-12 UTC ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. THEREAFTER...RAIN BECOMES
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH...WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN RAIN CENTRAL DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WEST...BUT CONTINUED AND
EXPANDED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. BISMARCK WAS STILL
GUSTING TO 45 MPH LAST OBSERVATION. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSOURI...MORTON...OLIVER
ON SUNDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IT GOING.
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE BAND OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING OUT THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ANOTHER...LARGER...BAND
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 2-3 AM SUNDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WILL NEED TO ADD EVENING POPS TO THE ZONES EAST OF A LINE FROM
BISMARCK TO MINOT. ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS INITIATING IN
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG AN AXIS OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS
DEPICTED ON THE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. NWS ABERDEEN HAS HAD REPORTS
OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EAST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WIND SPEEDS WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE. NO
OTHER CHANGES THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE STRONG WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY...THE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED INTO THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL COUNTIES NORTH OF MINOT TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND WAS
MOVING INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN ROCKIES...WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND ONE OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.
STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS HAD BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AND HAD ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FOR COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...BUT ALSO INCLUDING A FEW COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR WINDS TONIGHT...THE LATEST MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
MORE INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND SUPPORTING SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL WINDS
THAT SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN EARLIER FORECAST. WILL
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY EASTWARD FOR TONIGHT TO INCLUDE THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN BEGINNING AFTER 10 PM CDT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY ON
SUNDAY WILL INCLUDE EMMONS COUNTY TO PIERCE AND ROLETTE COUNTY AND
EASTWARD.
IN SUMMARY FOR WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY/THIS
EVENING TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY.
THE STRONG SURFACE LOWS MERGE/DEVELOP INTO ONE LARGE SURFACE SYSTEM
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...CENTERED AROUND EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN
KANSAS/WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT BY LATE
EVENING/MIDNIGHT THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE INSTABILITY ALOFT...ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVE IN NORTH DAKOTA - ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE IS POISED TO RECEIVE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
NOT QUITE DONE WITH WINTER WEATHER YET. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE HEADLINE IN THE
EXTENDED WITH A RAIN EVENT...THEN SOME SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
ONGOING WET/COOL PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WANES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL LIGHT BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. H85 TEMPS ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...(-2C TO -4C) ALONG WITH THE GFS SOUNDINGS...INDICATE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRIOR TO
THIS...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING....THE THREAT OF A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IS MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA IN CONCERT WITH SUBZERO 850MB TEMPS AND SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
MAIN UPDATE TO THE ALLBLEND WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HIGHS
TUESDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND MOSTLY SNOW OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTING IN H85 TEMPS BELOW ZERO (-2C TO -4C)...JUST CANNOT FOLLOW
THE ALLBLEND FORECAST OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. HAVE
CUT THESE BY ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES...THINKING THAT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN IN MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN POSSIBLY
RISING TO AROUND 40 AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN NOSING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER HIGHLIGHT...WET SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LATEST ECMWF HAS
H85 TEMPS OF -4C WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUING FROM 06Z
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AND WET
BULB TEMPS ABOVE 32F...SNOWFALL RATES WOULD HAVE TO BECOME FAIRLY
HEAVY TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY ON ROADS...A BIT EASIER ON GRASSY
AREAS WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE. THE WINTER WEATHER DESK ON DAY
3 WHICH INCLUDES THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME HAS POCKETS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SOME 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEP
COLD AIR ALOFT AND SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE GROUND. OUR
LATEST GRIDS HAVE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AND WILL USE THIS AS A STARTING POINT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE FUTURE AS THE AMOUNT/AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION COINCIDING WITH SUBZERO 850 TEMPS BECOMES CLEARER.
TREND IS FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY CENTRAL INCLUDING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AS A 850MB COLD POCKET OF -2C
REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE GFS MAINTAINS SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER BRISK
AND CHILLY DAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A MORE AGGRESSIVE COOLING TREND
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME SIGNATURE OF THIS. APPEARS SPRINGTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE BACK BURNER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LOWERING NEAR IFR
AFTER SUNSET. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD/KS/JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
206 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FRONT AND
BRINGS CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGE...POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH THIS PUSH OF SOUTHERLY AIR...WARMTH AND MOISTURE AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TAP FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT...
STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE LATE TONIGHT.
THUS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND 26.18Z RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY
SHOW POTENT UPPER LOW DIGGING/TURNING EAST NOW THROUGH AZ. THIS
HAS INDUCED STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM DRIVING THE
COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LATTER SYSTEM INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FORMER
SYSTEM OUT INTO COLORADO WILL ALLOW LARGE SCALE/AMPLIFIED RIDGING
INTO AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THESE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL ACT TO STALL THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SAGGING THROUGH
OHIO...WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP SOMEWHERE NEAR/ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. THERE IS A WEALTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NATIONS MIDSECTION IN THE STRONGER SWLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SO FEEL TOMORROW WILL HAVE
MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY...LIKELY SOME MID LEVEL AC AND CIRRUS AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS FIRST AT THOSE LEVELS THE RIDGE
CROSSES THE AREA. UNDERNEATH...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OHIO ON SUNDAY PROVIDING A DRY/EASTERLY
BREEZE WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
ESP NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE A TEMP
GRADIENT FROM NRN KY /SOUTH OF THE FRONT/ WHERE TEMPS NEAR 80 WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THE FACTOR OF EAST
WINDS...MORE CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. COULD BE A
SNEAKY BUST DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPS NOT WARMING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW QUITE STRONG THE FURTHER NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER ONE GOES.
FIRST WAVES OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVE /850-700MB/
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY IN LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD...AS
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS AS SURFACE LOW SWINGS
OUT INTO NEBRASKA AND DEEPENS AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES MATURITY
AND BECOMES CUT OFF. DESPITE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL LARGELY
BEING INTACT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THERE IS ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING WITH THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THAT EXPECT A SCT-BKN WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS TO EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING TO OUR
WEST AND CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DON/T SEE MUCH SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AT ALL...PER 26.12Z GFS/NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS...INSTBY IS MARGINAL /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE PARCELS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER
WEAK. THESE SHOULD BE ELEVATED STORMS AND MAIN IMPACTS/THREATS
WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE CONTINUED
THE MENTION OF 60-75% RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AS THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LEAST WITH HOW STRONG THE PUSH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS AND THE REMAINING ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
ON MONDAY...THIS INITIAL WAVE OF ADVECTION-INDUCED SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY VERY
WELL HAVE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HARD TO TELL
FOR CERTAIN...WITH LARGE UPPER SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST...THE
ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER EASY TO SEE. BUT MOIST FLOW
AND CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOWER TROP SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY
TO BUILD AND THIS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR MAY VERY WELL BE FILLED
WITH A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. SO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY REMAIN UP FOR GRABS...THERE MAY BE LESS
RAIN COVERAGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD THAN CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS.
FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG/EAST OF
MS RIVER INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY WILL IGNITE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WHICH SHOULD INVOLVE THE LOCAL AREA AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH AND EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE LARGE CNTL CONUS TROUGH. GIVEN THE DEEP MSLP WAY TO
THE WEST...LOW LEVEL WIND FLOWS WILL HAVE SOME COMPONENT OF
SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY ON MONDAY AFTN/EVE...AND
GIVEN FAST/SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESP IN THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTBY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO BUILD IN WAKE OF MONDAY MORNING
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...POINT FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF DECENT
EML TO STEEPEN TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE IS THUS
TALL/SKINNY AND OVERALL INSTBY STILL LOOKING MARGINAL. BUT SHEAR
WILL BE GOOD ESP WITH ANY EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...SO IF ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEATING DEVELOPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE SUBSEQUENT THREATS FOR SEVERE GO UP LATE MON
AFTN/NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY NOT TO GET
CARRIED AWAY...AND ACTUALLY GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS/PWAT
ANOMALIES THERE IS JUST AS MUCH CONCERN FOR A BAND OF
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONFLUENCE SETS
UP. SO WATCHING THIS PERIOD CLOSELY. DECIDED NOT TO GET CUTE IN
THE FORECAST...AND JUST RUNNING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN OVERALL ENSEMBLE
PROBS...DEEP MOISTURE...AND ARRIVAL OF TWO WAVES OF FORCING
MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE ESTABLISHED H5
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-9KT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL TURN EAST AT 10-14KT BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS SETTLES NW-SE OVER THE REGION...A WAVE OF
VORTICITY IS BEING PROGGED ON THE NAM TO FORCE SOME SHOWERS OUT OF
THE MID LEVELS AT KCVG/LUK AFTER ABOUT 2-3Z TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
VORT WEAKENS AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE...PRIMARILY NOTED ON THE
NAM. GFS AND EURO SHOW PRECIP OVER FAR SW OH AT 6Z...SPREADING
NORTHEAST A BIT TOO RAPIDLY AFTER 6Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
MUCH GIVEN THE ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AT 12Z.
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME BUT WILL
ONLY AFFECT KCVG AT THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD ADVECTION IS STRENGTHENING OFF OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT THE CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING. THE RUC IS DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH THE CLOUDS THAN THE NAM/GFS AND SHOWS SOME POSSIBLE EXPANSION
OFF THE WEST END OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TOWARDS TOLEDO. IT DOES SEEM LIKE SOME
BREAKS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS NW
OHIO WHERE WINDS ARE 10-20 MPH.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOWN
BY A BAND OF CU FROM NEAR AOH TO HLG. BKN-OVC CLOUD HAD
REDEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BUT DRIER AIR MIXING
IN HAS ALLOWED THESE TO THIN AND TAKE ON MORE OF A DIURNAL LOOK.
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE CLOUD COVER NORTH IN ONTARIO AND
MICHIGAN. WHILE THESE HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WORKING SOUTH TODAY THE
NAM SHOWS FAVORABLE JET ENERGY OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING THE CLOUDS
SHIFTING INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST AGAIN OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES CLEAR TO
PC. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
HOWEVER EXPECT ON BALANCE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. BROUGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE THAT GETS CLOSE
TO THE AREA TOWARD MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF WITH THUNDER
UNTIL MONDAY. AS FOR MONDAY HIGH POPS SUPPORTED AS DEEP MOISTURE
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON CAPES OF 600-800 J/KG (SW COUNTIES) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
WEST AND LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH A
BLOCKING HIGH IN CANADA SETTING UP WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE COOL AND WET..WITH A SERIES OF LOWS ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT TIMING IT IN AND
OUT WITH THE SERIES OF TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT IS PRECARIOUS AT BEST.
FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU APPEARS TO BE GETTING SOME LAKE EFFECT HELP.
NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW LONG THIS WILL HANG AROUND BUT WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE OF IT A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AROUND NE OH AND NW PA. ONCE THE STRATOCU
DISSIPATES...SHOULD JUST SEE SCT DAYTIME CU TODAY WITH PATCHY HIGH
AND SOME MID CLOUDS THRU 06Z SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS FOR TOL AND FDY LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...ADDING TO THE NORMAL PICKUP DUE TO MIXING FROM DAYTIME
HEATING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY IN PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS AND WAVES WERE INCREASING AND THEN WILL DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE FORECASTED NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING UPDATED TO ADD A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. WAVES
WILL BE INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER DARK.
KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP UNTIL THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH
OVER THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE. AFTER THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SET UP BY
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1102 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
NOT MUCH GOING ON OUT THERE AS OF 9 PM. HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AFTER 11 PM AS LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
ELEVATED...LIKELY BASED BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. PARCELS LIFTED FROM
THIS LEVEL WILL TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AROUND 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. THEY WILL HOWEVER BE BASED ABOVE THE BEST WIND SHEAR...AND THUS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MOST OF THIS SHEAR. BUT GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY...STILL SEEMS LIKE WE COULD GET SOME MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL TO AROUND QUARTERS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
QUESTION IS WHERE DO STORMS INITIATE...AS THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE LIKELYHOOD OF STORMS ACTUALLY SHOULD INCREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. THE 22Z AND 0Z
HRRR RUNS SEEM REASONABLE...SHOWING STORMS FORM AROUND 04Z ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A CHAMBERLAIN TO CANTON TO STORM LAKE LINE...WITH AREAS
TO THE SOUTH STAYING CAPPED. THERE IS A QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL THOUGH...WITH THE RAP INITIATING STORMS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER...SUGGESTING THE WHOLE CWA GETS IN ON THE ACTION...AND
THE 0Z NAM NOT INITIATING UNTIL THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...LEAVING
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY. FOR NOW...BELIEVE THE MIDDLE GROUND HRRR
SOLUTION IS MOST LIKELY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER
THE COMING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND ALL THESE ELEMENTS ARE POISED TO
PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
MID/LOWER LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION AS A 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME...AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE OF COURSE EXHIBITING THE
USUAL DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL TREND IS
FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR TOWARD 06Z...THEN EXPAND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...BUT THE BETTER SHEAR RESIDES IN THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW
THE BEST INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO DROP OFF
JUST A SMIDGE IN THE LATE EVENING...THINK JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION IF WINDS
DONT DROP OFF AS SOON AS ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTING CLOSE TO THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
THAT POINT...THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP WITH MOISTURE POOLING...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES. THE
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR PRECIPITATION TO TAPER DOWN FROM THE SOUTH
BY LATER AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WILL AGAIN BE A WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY IN A TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER MIXING LOOKS TO NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD AS
TODAY...SO MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE STRONGEST WINDS. IN LIGHT
OF THAT...THINK WE WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. AGAIN WILL SEE A WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
MONDAY COULD PROVE TO BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL...AT LEAST
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD WRAP INTO THE AREA BUT OF
COURSE THE PLACEMENT OF THIS DRY SLOT NOT VERY WELL AGREED UPON...SO
WILL NEED TO HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. IF
THE DRY SLOT IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH COULD END UP JUST BEING A CLOUDY
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLY DAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN IN THE
FAR EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
ROTATES BACK TO THE WEST. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALMOST NIL
A SMALL SHORT LIVED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH A WARM FRONT
SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE MN/IA BORDER...A THIN LAYER OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND A GRADIENT OF HIGHER 0 TO 1 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES SOME BRIEF ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS
IF A FEW UPDRAFTS CAN GET GOING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SWING
BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO EXPECT RAIN CHANCES
TO INCREASE ALONG WITH THIS. WILL LOWER HIGHS A BIT IN THE EASTERN
CWA AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING
MUCH. LOOKING AT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A SLOW RECOVERY
FROM THE ABYSMAL SLOW MOVING/CUT OFF LOW. STILL A THREAT FOR RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY IN THE EASTERN CWA
AS LOBES OF VORTICITY CONTINUE TO SWING WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD A VERY
GRADUAL WARM UP WILL FOLLOW. HOWEVER PRETTY MUCH LOOKING LIKE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME HOPE FOR NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
PATTERN INCREASES HAD TO GO AHEAD AND INCREASE WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF ABOUT 20 TO 40
MPH ALL THREE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT..WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WINDS PICK
UP AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
INCREASE AND LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL LEAVE CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2500
FEET INTO MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
CLEARING WILL BE NEAR THE MISSOURI LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN STRATUS...BUT WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE DID NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE
AFTER 18Z...MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT AND AGAIN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. HAIL AND
GUSTY WILL BE A CONCERN WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX...PUSHING THE
LIMITS NEAR EXTREME WITH THE VERY HIGH WIND GUSTS. BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT...THEREFORE
EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BARELY BE
HELD AT BAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING TORNADOES EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK
LATER THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A
VERY ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTH AND BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH LATE TOMORROW. WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF VICINITY THUNDER AT MEM FROM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PREVAILING IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...WILL ADD PREVAILING THUNDER AT MEM AT 00Z AND CARRY
IT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. PREVAILING THUNDER WILL START
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AT JBR AND 2-3 HOURS LATER AT MKL AND TUP.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND VIS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. WILL
CARRY 3SM IN PREVAILING THUNDER. EXPECT NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS BASED ON
RADAR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...APPROACH AND MOVE AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY GENERALLY 10 KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A DRY LINE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS /WSR-88D VAD
WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF 8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM KLZK/KSGF SHOW AN 850-800 MB CAPPING INVERSION
PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS WEAKER AT KJAN/KSHV.
LATEST 00Z WRF IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO COME IN AND THUS FAR
INDICATES THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z WRF
AGREES WITH THE 26/23Z HRRR RUN THUS FAR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF POPS SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE OVERALL.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
80S. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM...MOIST AIR
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WARM
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATER IN THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND
EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AFTER 10 AM. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE WARM MOIST AIR MAY CAUSE A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH EAST BY 4 PM THUS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE
EAST BY THIS TIME.
SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN ARKANSAS
BETWEEN 7-9 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE
STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...QUESTIONS
EMERGE IF THEY WILL REMAIN SEVERE DUE TO WAINING INSTABILITY.
ON MONDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT THE DRY LINE
TO HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LINE WILL BE THE SOURCE OF REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN QUESTIONS
EMERGE ON IF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SEVERE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS INSTABILITY WAINS.
ON TUESDAY...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AGAIN...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST INTO ALABAMA/MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WIDESPREAD THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY TIME FRAME AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER
AROUND THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD SKIRT NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TAFS WILL GET A BIT MORE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTH AND BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH LATE TOMORROW. WE COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF VICINITY THUNDER AT MEM FROM
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THINK WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDER AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING MUCH OF THE MIDDAY TIME FRAME INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PREVAILING IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...WILL ADD PREVAILING THUNDER AT MEM AT 00Z AND CARRY
IT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. PREVAILING THUNDER WILL START
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AT JBR AND 2-3 HOURS LATER AT MKL AND TUP.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND VIS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. WILL
CARRY 3SM IN PREVAILING THUNDER. EXPECT NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS BASED ON
RADAR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...APPROACH AND MOVE AWAY FROM TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY GENERALLY 10 KT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
The Pacific cold front is visible on the west TX radars and
continues to move east toward the CWA. With CINH increasing with the
loss of surface heating, any potential precipitation will be tied to
the interaction of the front with the shallow, moist airmass in
place across the region. Confidence is low that we`ll see storms
develop along the boundary, but there is enough of a threat that
we`ve opted to leave in a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Gusty south winds will veer to the southwest late tonight, becoming
westerly at 25-35 mph (gusting up to 45 mph at times) by
mid-morning. The combination of these strong winds, warm
temperatures, and relative humidities near 10 percent will result in
dangerous fire weather conditions through sunset. The current Red
Flag Warning looks good. We`re also on track with the Wind Advisory
for tomorrow, with the strongest winds expected over the Big Country
and Concho Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Showers and thunderstorms have had a difficult time materializing
across the forecast area and chances continue to diminish that we
will see anything during the overnight period. While convection
cannot be ruled out, I did remove any mention of thunder from the
06z TAF package. Low clouds are expected to move into the
northwest Hill Country for a few hours tonight, primarily in the
area of KBBD and KJCT. I included MVFR ceilings for a few hours.
Winds will veer to the southwest late tonight as a Pacific cold
front moves into the area. This front has moved into West TX and
can be seen on the latest radar imagery. By 15z, sustained
westerly crosswinds winds of 20-25 kts are expected across West
Central TX. Gusts will generally be in the 30-35 kt range, but
KABI/KSJT may see occasional gusts approaching 40 kts. Thus, an
Airport Weather Warning will likely be required for KABI. Blowing
dust is expected across the area, which may reduce visibilities at
times. Wind speeds will decrease after 00z, maintaining a general
westerly component.
Johnson
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
The primary concern regarding the 00z TAF package is the potential
for convection during the evening and overnight hours. Model
guidance continues to be all over the place, ranging from
isolated evening thunderstorms becoming more widespread overnight,
to basically nothing. We have a few cells developing at this time
and I think the latter solution is more likely with the best
chance of precipitation occurring across the Big Country. I do
have VCTS included for a few hours at KABI but left the remaining
sites dry for now. Additional development of thunderstorms is
possible overnight as a Pacific cold front moves across the CWA, but
confidence remains low.
We`ll see gusty winds overnight with low-level moisture increasing
ahead of the Pacific cold front. I expect MVFR ceilings to affect
KJCT and KBBD for a few hours after midnight but strong west winds
will bring much drier air in from west TX, quickly shunting that
moisture off to the east. Sustained westerly winds of 20-30 kts,
gusting to around 35 kts, are expected tomorrow at KSJT and KABI
with slightly lower wind speeds at the remaining terminals. The
result will be strong west to east crosswinds and patchy blowing
dust causing occasional visibility reductions. An Airport Weather
Warning will likely be issued later for KABI due to these
strong winds.
Johnson
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Conditionally severe thunderstorm threat tonight, mainly in the
Big Country and Concho Valley. West Central Texas is certainly
unstable with RUC SB CAPES up to 3000 J/KG, but warm air aloft may
prevent storms from occurring. Surface Observations show only weak
low level convergence along the dryline. Some virga indicated in
the Big Country from Abilene to west of Wichita Falls, but the mid
level instability associated with it appears to be fairly high,
above 10000 FT AGL.
Both the GFS and the HRRR models develop isolated storms in the
Big Country this evening, with the GFS the only one to develop
storms later tonight, as a Pacific front catches up with dryline
towards midnight. Region should become more unstable as cooler air
aloft moves in as an upper trough approaches. There will also be
stronger low level convergence, with west winds behind the Pacific
front. But storm development is still conditional.
Strong downslope west warming winds expected Sunday behind the
Pacific Front. Should see Wind Advisory criteria of 25 to 35 mph,
with gusts to 45 mph by mid-morning. Have a Red Flag Warning for
dangerous fire conditions from 11 AM to 10 PM.
FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning for fire weather is in effect for West Central
Texas from 11 AM to 10 PM.
Dangerous fire weather conditions Sunday as the dryline and
Pacific front sweep through, bringing dry and windy west winds
Minimum RH values will fall near 10 percent with 20 foot west
winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Added Mason and San Saba
counties to the Red Flag Warning as 20 foot winds will be close to
20 mph.
Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected Monday due to
gusty west winds and very dry conditions.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Warm and dry weather will prevail on Monday, with cooler
temperatures Tuesday through next Friday.
The large closed upper low will be centered over the Central
Plains late this weekend, and will move slowly northeast to the
Great Lakes region by mid week. Associated surface low currently
over eastern Colorado this evening, will move northeast into
eastern Nebraska Sunday evening. Monday will be another warm day
with gusty west winds once again with afternoon highs in the mid
and upper 80s. A cold front will move across the area Monday
night, bringing much cooler temperatures for Tuesday, with highs
mainly in the 70s.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the area Tuesday through
much of next week. A persistent surface ridge will remain in place
and will result in unseasonably cool temperatures for West
Central Texas through Friday. High temperatures through Friday
will be mainly in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
Warmer weather is expected next weekend with near seasonal
temperatures. No rain is forecast through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 63 88 51 83 48 / 40 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 63 90 51 88 49 / 30 0 0 0 0
Junction 66 92 50 90 47 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...
McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom
Green.
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.
&&
$$
25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NEW MEXICO WITH BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM KABR TO KDVN AND HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TRIED TO MAKE
SOME TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND THEN
SOME LARGER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS /UP IN THE
WEST BY .3 TO .5 INCHES/...BUT MUCH OF TONIGHTS FORECAST LEFT AS
WAS.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP LOW WITH TROPOPAUSE FOLD
DOWN TO 700 MB OVER NEW MEXICO PER RAP TROP ANALYSIS. SURFACE
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SD/MN /1 MB PER HOUR/
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING WITH
25 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALREADY TONIGHT IN EASTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN NERN CO TO WRN NE AT 986 MB. SURFACE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOISTEN WITH 60F DEWPOINT LINE NOW INTO
NEB. NORTH OF THE W-E FRONT NEAR OMAHA-KSTL LINE...DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG DRIER EASTERLY FLOW /30S/...PRODUCING
SOME FIGHT TO RAIN SHOWERS TO HIT THE SURFACE /NOT THE TSRA
THOUGH AS HOURLY 0.25 INCH REPORTS ARE COMMON IN IA/.
GOES BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ HOURLY LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN
PLUME OF MOISTURE FOR INFLOW INTO TONIGHTS RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH
THRU OK/AR AT THIS TIME...WITH 1.5 INCH VALUES. ALREADY PRESENT
FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWRD INTO IA...A PW AXIS EXISTS OF ABOUT 0.60
INCHES WHICH IS 125-150 PERCENT NORMAL. THIS IS MAINLY MOISTURE
ABOVE 700MB /PER 00Z RAOB AT KABR/ AND ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH
PRETTY STEEP 500-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...WHICH IS WHERE THE
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED TONIGHT WITH MOST LIGHTNING. LAPSE
RATE GRADIENT RUNS KABR-KMCW WITH MAX OVER NEB AT 06Z. THE LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE LAPSE RATE STEEPENING AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH PUSHES THE GRADIENT
AND DESTABILIZATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE VERY WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO WE
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS MOVE
NORTH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE 750-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LLJ CONVERGENCE. KDMX IS 60 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH PER RADAR AND KARX 88D SHOWED 40 KTS FROM THE SE...SO NICE
CONVERGENCE TO MOIST PLUME ALOFT.
LATEST RAP AND LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THIS SHOWER AND
SCT TSRA REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. TSRA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHRA. THE
HRRR AND RAP...AS WELL AS NAM AND GFS...HAVE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE
OR LULL IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS TRANSPORT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE BUILT THIS INTO THE RAIN
CHANCES...WITH AN INCREASE LATE TODAY AND EVENING AS MAIN MOIST
PLUME AND FORCING RETURNS WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY BOTTOMED THE RAIN CHANCES OUT TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS A START.
WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
ROBUST WITH WINDS TODAY. FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS GUSTING TO 35
MPH WEST OF MISS RIVER AND WITH AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TODAY...WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. KARX 88D HAS 45-50
KTS AT 500M ABOVE THE RADAR AT 08Z. IT COULD BE RATHER GUSTY EAST
OF THE RIVER TOO IN WI WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND SOME SHALLOW MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT RAIN. GUSTS IN THE
30S ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT WI AREAS MONDAY MORNING AND A BREAK
SEEMS TO OCCUR THEN BEFORE THE WARM FRONT AGAIN BECOMES ACTIVE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REALLY BANK ON INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA /DUH/ AND THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT LOCATION WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER OR
SOUTH...AND RUNNING W-E. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP LIFT AND CLOUDS/RAIN BY MID-DAY MONDAY WHICH
DOESNT NOT LEAVE MUCH TIME TO DESTABILIZE.
THE LATEST SPC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK NORTH
TO JUST SOUTH OF KDBQ. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED STORMS. WIND SHEAR IS FAIR SO DYNAMIC LIFT WILL HAVE TO
ASSIST TO INVIGORATE THE STORMS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT SEEMS LOW
BUT POSSIBLE...WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. IF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA...SOME LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE...WHICH
WOULD MAKE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT
SEEMS CLOSE BUT NOT INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
LIMITED THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE RAIN AGAIN AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND ANOTHER
THEN FOLLOW BEHIND FOR TUESDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
ENHANCING THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE...SO ANOTHER INCH IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...SREF RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 2-2.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL ACROSS THE AREA
/MEAN/ WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS SURPRISINGLY. THIS IS
OUR CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR IMPACTS
ON RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND SHOWERY WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
DRY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE LOWERING OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWED THE
LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS TO MVFR AT KRST FROM 27.11Z TO 27.21Z. THIS
MAY HAVE TO SLOWED A BIT MORE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE KLSE
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST 28.04Z.
SUB CLOUD EVAPORATION SHOULD HELP BRING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...INCREASED THE WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. ON SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL
PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THE WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS IS STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE. REVIEWING THE FORECASTS FOR THE CURRENT
72-HOUR RAINFALL AND ITS AFFECT ON RIVERS...THE RIVERS RESPOND BY
RISING TO/NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY SITES.
THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WILL REVIEW THE INFORMATION AND ARE
CONSIDERING...IN COOPERATION WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...PLACING THE 72 HOUR RAIN INTO THE ACTUAL FORECASTS.
RECALL THE POSTED FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED ONLY USE 24 HOUR
FORECAST RAINFALL. IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
EVENT...IT WOULD BE BETTER TO HAVE THAT 72 HOUR TOTAL INCLUDED.
HOWEVER...USERS OF RIVER DATA CAN GO TO THE LINK BELOW TO SEE 72
HOUR RAINFALL RIVER HYDROGRAPHS AT ANY TIME /ALL LOWER CASE AND
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE/...
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/CRH/RFC/MAPGRAPHICALDISPLAY.PHP
WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AS THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO VISIT THIS TOPIC WITH THE 72 HOUR RAINFALL RIVER
FORECASTS TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
LATEST KARX RADAR...SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 700 TO 500 MB
FRONOTOGENESIS. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW THAT THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH 27.09Z AND THEN WEAKENS
IT. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH THE PRECIPITATION THAT SHOWS UP IN THE
MESO MODELS...SO TRENDED THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
27.09Z TO BETTER MATCH THEM.
AFTER 27.09Z...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANPSORT IS
MOVING INTO THIS AREA AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
RAIN AND WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSONS BAY
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WI WHILE STRENGTHENING CYCLOGENESIS WAS
TAKING PLACE ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS IN BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING 850-
700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS VICINITY OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR OF MN INTO WESTERN
WI WILL LIKELY PRODUCE INCREASING BAND OF ACCAS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL
IN EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE
INCREASING INTO THE 250-500J/KG RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT PER THE NAM.
PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH OF I-
94...TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NERVOUSLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY...MAY ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN
THERE AND POINTS NORTH.
PLAN ON SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED-
SCATTERED THUNDER FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. IT WILL
BE WINDY AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE HUDSON BAY HIGH AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP INTO THE
20-30 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS WEST OF THE RIVER IN THE
WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA 40-45 MPH. FOR THIS
REASON...OPTED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE MORE WIND-PRONE
AREAS FROM 9AM-9PM SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE...WILL BE A RAW DAY IN
GENERAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S COMBINED WITH THE
WIND AND SHOWERS.
SURFACE LOW LINKS UP WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TAPPING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOCUSING RIGHT INTO THE AREA FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THIS
PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE. THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT...THE 26.12Z
ECMWF SHOWING SOME 750-1000J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE NOSING TOWARD
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
FOR SUNDAY NIGH THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW AMBLES ITS WAY INTO IA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
MAIN FOCUS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A WEAKENING TREND AND SHIFTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94. WILL BE WATCHING AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI MONDAY AFTN/EVE AS THIS AREA GETS VERY CLOSE TO
SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. NAM SHOWING
MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 600-1100J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A PRETTY DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 50S/A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTION
OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOWING TROWAL SIGNATURE MOISTURE WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS OUT OF IA AND
ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTION
OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
FOR WEDENESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL/SHOWERY PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED LOW
CAMPS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION.
RAINFALL DOES LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THOUGH...BUT SHOWERY
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL NONETHELESS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
DRY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE LOWERING OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWED THE
LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS TO MVFR AT KRST FROM 27.11Z TO 27.21Z. THIS
MAY HAVE TO SLOWED A BIT MORE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE KLSE
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST 28.04Z.
SUB CLOUD EVAPORATION SHOULD HELP BRING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...INCREASED THE WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. ON SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL
PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THE WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014
WITH TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NEARING 2 INCHES...EXPECT RISES
ON AREA RIVERWAYS. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THIS RAINFALL
WILL PUSH A FEW AREA RIVERS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE
KICKAPOO...TURKEY...UPPER IOWA RIVERWAYS. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH BUT REMAINING BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.
SHOULD HEAVIER RAIN MATERIALIZE WITH SAY ANOTHER 1 INCH OR MORE
OCCURRING THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME MINOR-MODERATE FLOODING COULD
RESULT.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND PASS ALONG TO THE NIGHT
SHIFT TO ASSESS WITH HOPEFULLY BETTER MODEL RESOLUTION. FEELING
RIGHT NOW IS THIS IS NOT A QUICK RESPONSE/FLASHY SITUATION GIVEN
LOWER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE HYDROLOGIC ESF STATEMENTS FOR
NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
402 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT SAT APR 26 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. KLAR COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER AROUND 09Z...SO
HAVE IFR VIS IN LIGHT SNOW AT THAT POINT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KCDR THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER AROUND 09Z...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WY
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-105-
110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
515 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
KALS...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH 16Z
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL. STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.
KCOS...LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 14Z WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS
TO MVFR. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN AT THE TERMINAL. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY 17Z.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.
KPUB...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 16Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL
DROP TO MVFR TO IFR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-060-061-066-
068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR
REGION AND FORECAST TO BE A LATE START AROUND 20-21Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. THE CHANGES WERE MADE DUE TO INSPECTION OF THE 12Z
SOUNDING AND RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE
WIND L/V EARLY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARIES
MERGE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 73 85 75 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE
WIND L/V EARLY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARIES
MERGE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 73 85 75 / 0 10 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI 89 76 87 76 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
625 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR AND NARRE MODELS
SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING ALONG FL GULF COAST AND FL ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG/CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AGAIN. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK
WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZES TO MOVE INLAND REACHING THE INTERIOR
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHANCE TO
CHANCE AFTN/EVEN POPS AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE POSSIBLY
ENHANCING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE COLLISION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES WELL INLAND AND AROUND 80 COAST. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING MONDAY WILL
FLATTEN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST...SO PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH MAINLY SEABREEZE AND SMALL SCALE INTERACTIONS AS THE
TRIGGERS. WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 80S
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF/GFS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ACROSS SE GA WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION SATURDAY. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO WILL KEEP
POPS CHANCE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS
SATURDAY NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
PROGGED TO BE STRETCHING OUT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...DO NOT
EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS LIKE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCSH FOR GNV/VQQ. ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. SOME MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR VQQ/GNV LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN
A S TO SE FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
FORMATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MAJOR FLOOD STAGE REACHED AT THREE RIVER ESTATES ON
THE SUWANNEE RIVER...THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON SEVERAL OTHER NE FL/SE GA
RIVERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 88 63 88 65 / 30 20 10 10
SSI 79 67 80 67 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 88 63 89 67 / 20 10 20 20
SGJ 81 67 84 67 / 10 10 20 20
GNV 89 66 88 65 / 30 20 20 20
OCF 89 65 89 65 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
620 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS ARRIVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE DRY-LINE...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ROBUST AND
HIGHER END SEVERE EPISODE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY-LINE SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR
EXPECT TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
ERODED MORE QUICKLY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE FOR MORE BUOYANT INITIAL UPDRAFTS WHERE SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADIC STORMS BESIDES LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE DRY-LINE SHOULD PUSH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z-23Z.
THERE IS CONCERN BEHIND THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A DRIER AND DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE. BESIDES A WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AREAS OF HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST AND PERHAPS SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY
REPORTING SOME OF THIS AS OF VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING
DIURNALLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTING
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BROADEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES FROM THE
WEST TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS OVER 35KTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT FOR THIS
EVENING AND VEER MORE OUT TO THE WEST.
JAKUB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY-LINE.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH GFDI VALUES AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO
MONDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 49 70 46 / 40 10 20 20
HUTCHINSON 78 47 69 44 / 40 10 20 20
NEWTON 77 47 68 45 / 40 10 20 20
ELDORADO 79 48 70 46 / 50 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 49 72 47 / 50 10 20 20
RUSSELL 75 44 65 42 / 20 20 20 30
GREAT BEND 75 45 66 42 / 10 10 20 30
SALINA 78 47 67 44 / 40 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 78 47 68 44 / 40 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 80 51 73 47 / 60 10 20 20
CHANUTE 79 50 71 46 / 60 20 20 20
IOLA 78 50 70 46 / 60 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 80 50 72 47 / 60 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
907 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Have updated the grids this morning mainly to account for the
expected evolution of convection this afternoon. WV imagery depicts
a PV anomaly ejecting out of the main upper low. This shortwave is
currently across portions of eastern TX and OK, but will quickly
race northeast this afternoon. In response to this ejecting
feature, isentropic ascent has led to the development of convection
across AR/MS this morning. This convection will continue to push
northeast through the day. The latest HRRR has the best handle of
the ongoing convection, so have leaned on that for timing. This
makes for a slightly faster arrival into the region than the
previous forecast, getting convection into our southwest CWA by
18-19Z, and up toward the Louisville metro by about 21-23Z.
Guidance still tries to develop decent instability (1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) out ahead of this incoming wave this afternoon, although
this is likely a bit overdone given dewpoints are too high in
guidance. Nonetheless, still feel there is potential for a few
strong to perhaps marginally severe storms mainly along and west of
I-65 given bulk shear values of 20-30 knots. Will continue to
monitor the evolution upstream this morning and provide updates as
needed.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Expect one last warm and partly cloudy day today before a slow
moving cyclone brings several days of episodic storminess beginning
late this evening.
At 500mb a blocking pattern is developing across North America. This
will drastically slow the progression of any individual waves across
the CONUS through the middle of next week. Currently, a potent jet
is wrapping around the eastern side of a deep upper trough now
located over Colorado. This cyclone will deepen farther and close
off as it encounters a persistent ridge that is forecast to lie
right over the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon. By early Sunday,
this cyclone is expected to occlude and become cutoff over western
Kansas.
Moisture, especially at mid-levels, will increase this afternoon and
evening as southwesterly winds aloft brings in modified Gulf
moisture northeast from Arkansas. Dewpoints won`t rise much at the
surface until tonight as easterly surface winds will continue to
advect continental air from over the Appalachians. Expect warm
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the upper 70s to near 80.
The first of several disturbances associated with the sprawling
cyclone over the plains will arrive this evening. Forecast soundings
show adequate surface-based instability developing by late afternoon
and evening, especially southwest of Louisville. The GFS especially
forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
within the leading edge of a wholesale moisture surge. Aiding any
convection may be the remnants of an old northwest to southeast
orientated weak stationary front. Episodic convection may continue
through much of early Monday as a robust low level jet sets up.
After an expected break Monday, a second more potent round of
convection is expect to develop later Monday afternoon and continue
well into Tuesday morning. This second round will develop within an
area of maximized moisture convergence ahead of slow moving occluded
front. A potential exists for some training convection and locally
excessive rainfall to areas south and east of the Ohio River. Expect
mild temperatures in the lower 60s early Monday with highs Monday
well into the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Still some debate about what will be ongoing at the start of the
period, with the GFS initiating a new line of convection west of the
region Monday afternoon and trudging it across our area Monday
night. The NAM however has a stronger line just to our east with a
weaker line initiating to the west and moving through Monday night.
The 12Z Euro leaned closer to the GFS solution. The biggest factor
will be how long precip lingers from earlier in the day Monday,
keeping instability down. A look at the end of the high-res WRF-NMM
and WRF-ARW indicates that both lean toward the NAM solution.
Given this uncertainty, one has to go to the basics. We will have a
pretty moist airmass in place. We do have plenty of deep-layered
shear to generate stronger thunderstorms. Confidence thus is fairly
high that we will have some thunderstorms Monday night, and they
should provide heavy rain, perhaps some minor flooding in areas that
receive heavy rain tonight and Monday.
For Tuesday, model consensus is pretty good that we will see a
longer breather in precip, as drier air works in aloft. However a
rather potent PV anomaly will rotate around the base of our large
scale low in the afternoon. This anomaly looks to come through at a
better time of day for severe potential. However the instability
looks to be stronger over the Deep South and would not be surprised
to see that area keep us from getting too many severe reports in our
forecast area. Agree with previous forecaster that the Lake
Cumberland region looks to have the best chance for severe, but
again this forecast relies on a lot of factors coming together so
stay tuned!
The multiple rounds of precip across the region, some heavy, could
spark some flash flooding. Given how relatively dry we have been the
last few weeks and the higher flash flood guidance, will hold off on
issuing a watch at this point. Will be issuing a Hydrologic Outlook
though, to highlight flood potential and let the next shift or two
decide if a flash flood watch is needed.
After the round of precip clears the area Tuesday evening, chances
for severe weather go down. However we will not be able to get rid
of rain chances the rest of the period as the stubborn upper low
takes a while to push through the Northern U.S. The GFS has light
QPF each day, but the other models are not showing as much. Will
keep slight chances each night and low-end chance each day with low
QPF.
Temperatures will start off above normal for highs Tuesday, then
turn noticeably colder as the cold upper low gets closer to our
region and lowers thicknesses. Highs could get near 80 Tuesday in
the breaks of the clouds. Then Wednesday they should drop to around
70 for most locations before dropping to around 60 Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Cirrus, and eventually some mid-level clouds will thicken today as
increasing moisture streams northeast and overruns a weak stationary
front. Instability will increase late this afternoon and evening.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop at our TAF sites
between 00 and 06z this evening, and will likely continue through
12z Monday morning. Although this convection will be episodic, think that
at some point convection will affect each of our TAFs. Light winds
early this morning will become east southeasterly by this afternoon
and average around 7 to 10kt. Southeasterly winds will continue
overnight into Monday morning at this same speed.
Despite lowering ceilings, our easterly winds will keep away low
strato-cu and VFR ceilings are expected up until any convection
affect a terminal. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will develop in
any thunderstorms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEG-TILT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH BUILDING 5H HGTS AND AMPLIFYING RDG OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTED IN A DRY ERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE ONLY REVEALS SOME BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FM
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN SPILLING INTO UPPER MI.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE AZ/CO BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
MID-LVL AND SFC LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. WAA PCPN LIFTING
THROUGH MN AND NRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN BREAKING APART ON THE NRN EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND DRY ERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH.
DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY EVIDENT
FM 00Z KGRB AND KINL SNDGS. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAN
TOWARD DRIER SOLN OF NAM AND REG GEM FOR OUR FCST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. GENERALLY EXPECT
THAT PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH TODAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN (NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) FINALLY REACHING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG GREAT LAKES IN E-NE FLOW TO MID
40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AT KIWD
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT NE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD
DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE
THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU
AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH CLOUD ENDED THE REIGN OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAD BECOME A NUISANCE. RIDGING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH WILL KEEP A BKN CIG OF LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY REMAINS IN FLUX...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* AN EASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORY WILL HOLD THROUGHOUT VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM JAMES BAY DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
RESIDING WELL WEST OF THE STATE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN HAS BEEN VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE
STABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN RESIDENCE. THE LOW STRATOCUMULUS THAT
PLAGUED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...FORCED FROM COLD AIR
ADVECTION....RAPIDLY DISSIPATED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TRACKED OVERHEAD. THE LOSS OF
CLOUD TOP COOLING SEEMED TO HAVE AN ALMOST INSTANTANEOUS IMPACT ON
THE CLOUD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF
CLOUDS FOR THE DAYBREAK HOUR AS IT IS A TOUGH TASK TO GAIN SOME
HANDLING ON THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUD. WITH THE BLOCKED NATURE OF THE
FLOW/TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...FAVOR A MORE TRANSPARENT HIGH CLOUD AND WILL BE VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODERATION OF THE
AIR MASS OF SOME 4C AT 850MB BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF
MORE INSOLATION...DECIDED TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME LOCATIONS OVERACHIEVING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CHILLY EASTERLY WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP SOME DENIZENS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
UNSATISFIED FOR A SECOND DAY.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD NEAR SURFACE
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED OFF OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. FOR
THESE REASONS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA APPROACH LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AROUND
12Z...BUT FEEL THE POTENTIAL TO MEASURE A HUNDREDTH IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A PRECIPITATION MENTION.
LONG TERM...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NEBRASKA BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE
PREVALENT LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE CIRCULATION/TROUGH UNGOES CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION IN SCALE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME...A POSITIONING THAT LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FIRMLY WITHIN THE EASTWARD FLANK OF THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDWEEK PERIODS. DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIATE A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE RESPONSE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NET RESULT BEING A
STEADY NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION IN 850-925 MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND TRANSLATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY...OWING TO THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE EXISTING DRY
LAYER RETAINED WITH THE SURFACE-925 MB EASTERLY GRADIENT. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION...SUPPORTING
THAT OF THE ECMWF/NAM IN PROVIDING A MORE INCREMENTAL RAMP UP OF
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB LARGELY SEEING A
DRY START TO THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
BOTH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND SOME FORM OF WEAK CVA
AS SHREDS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WORK THROUGH THE UPSTREAM
CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
/CONTAINING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. QPF POTENTIAL IN THE HALF INCH RANGE WITH THIS FIRST
EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.
LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...THE DETAILS
SENSITIVE TO PROPER PLACEMENT OF THE GOVERNING BACKGROUND DYNAMICS
TIED ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LODGED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL ANCHOR
POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN AN ADDED DIURNAL COMPONENT
AND CONTINUED FAVORED PLACEMENT OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE RUN POST-
FRONTALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. HIGHER END
POPS REMAIN WARRANTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PATTERN
PERSISTENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY BREAK IN ACTIVITY
AT SOME POINT WITHIN ANY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THAT CAN
FILL IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
COOLER AIR WILL RAP BACK IN AROUND THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GOOD DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY. THIS WILL FIRMLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
/50S/...LIKELY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OUT WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE THUMB. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THESE
LOCALES. EXPANSION OF ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS BY MONDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1003 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FIRST SURGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW PIVOTING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHER POPS WEST AND NORTH WITH LOWEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY. EARLY STAGES OF THIS CUT OFF LOW ARE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING WITH A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SO FAR WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER
WINDS EAST. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AT ABR AND
THAT EVEN LOOKS LIMITED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH. COULD
BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES FOCUSED MORE IN THE WEST AND
EASTERN MONTANA. BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT945 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY EAST WINDS 25 TO 38KTS WILL
IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH. COULD
BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES FOCUSED MORE IN THE WEST AND
EASTERN MONTANA. BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS IFR AND BELOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1035 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY. A LARGE...POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A PUSH OF
WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING EPISODES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
27.12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PRETTY CLEARLY THE IMPACT OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. STILL QUITE
MILD /+12C/ AT 850MB WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW BUT RATHER STRONG
COOLING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT CENTERED NEAR/BELOW 925MB WITH
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING RUNNING A GOOD
5-10F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AREA-WIDE...EVEN NEAR 15F OFF OF
YESTERDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS MAKES MAX TEMP FORECAST
TODAY TOUGH...AS DEPTH OF COOL AIR/EASTERLY FLOW DIMINISHES
TOWARD AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM JUST SOUTH OF EVANSVILLE TO SOUTH OF LEXINGTON.
RECENT RAP/HRRR ARE EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE IN PBL MIXING/WARMING
SUGGESTING TEMPS SOARING TO NEAR 80F AS FAR NORTH AS WILMINGTON -
AND THUS HAVE BEEN IGNORED. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG STATISTICAL
REGRESSION OF 925MB TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND RAW 2M TEMPS FROM
VARIOUS NWP THAT SUGGESTS GOING TEMPS ARE ON TRACK /NEAR HIGHER
END OF MOS/ WITH EXPECTED HIGHS FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 70S
FAR SOUTH. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...JUST NOT TO
DEGREE OF RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS. HAVE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT EASTERLY FLOW/SLOW
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL KEEP MANY AREAS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN FCST SO WILL WATCH. OTHER ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THIS EVE
IN SE IND/NRN KY. SOME RECENT HRRR /NAM-WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
BULLISH IN LEADING ARC OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT /THETA-E ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO THESE AREAS AROUND
SUNSET OR JUST AFTER. OTHER STORM SCALE GUIDANCE /OPERATIONAL AND
PARALLEL ARW-WRF/ STRONGLY DISAGREES AND BREAKS UP SHRA BEFORE
PENETRATING THE FORECAST AREA. DEGREE OF FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
ANEMIC...AND AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCANT. DID INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES IN FAR SWRN CORNER OF AREA THIS EVENING...BUT DIDN/T
ALLOW THAT PUSH TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WAITING UNTIL STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE/FORCING ON
MONDAY MORNING. SO TONIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN ERN
IND/NRN KY AND TREND DOWNWARD INTO OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT THE DEEP H5 LOW OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AN AREA SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ON MONDAY.
THIS INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH NE BY AFTN AND THERE MAY
BE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW MONDAY AFTN. THIS CAUSES A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE CONVECTION MIGHT NOT BE AS ORGANIZED
AS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE H5 LOW BEGINNING TO
FILL...THE MODELS DONT EJECT SIGNIFICANT ENERGY UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST DAYTIME HEATING TO DRIVE THE
CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...KEPT THE POPS IN CHC CATEGORY BECAUSE OF
THIS ON TUESDAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WONT BE AS TIGHT FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AS
THERE WERE ON SUNDAY. NRN COUNTIES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
60S...BUT THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 70S. BY
TUESDAY EVERYONE SHOULD BE IN TH MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE ESTABLISHED H5
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER
10KT WILL TURN EAST AT 10-14KT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS NW-SE OVER THE REGION...A WAVE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED ON THE NAM TO FORCE SOME SHOWERS OUT OF THE
MID LEVELS AT KCVG/LUK AFTER ABOUT 2-3Z TONIGHT. THE VORT WEAKENS
AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE...PRIMARILY NOTED ON THE NAM. SYNOPTIC
MODELS SHOW PRECIP OVER FAR SW OH SPREADING NORTHEAST A BIT TOO
RAPIDLY FROM 6-12Z. THIS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MUCH GIVEN THE
ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AT 12Z AND A CONTINUED
SUSTAINED SFC WIND FROM THE EAST AOA 12KT.
DRYING EAST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP ANY CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY
UNTIL RAIN BEGINS IN EARNEST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
444 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY...BUT
A BIG CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY BEHIND IT. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT INLAND VALLEYS
WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONCERNS HOVER AROUND SNOW IN
THE CASCADES TODAY...MINOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A
TRANSITION TO WELL ABOVE AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE CASCADES...WE
CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
STRETCHED OUT AND REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT EXTENDS
NORTH AND THEN WEST TO THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
SANTIAM PASS (4800 FT) IS SNOW COVERED...AND THE PASSES AROUND MT
HOOD THAT ARE CLOSER TO 4000 FEET IN ELEVATION LOOK LIKE THEY ARE
GETTING SOME ACCUMULATION NOW.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SOMEWHAT ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING IN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY.
PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW. THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE PASSES THIS MORNING...THOUGH RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE
HEAVY AT ANY ONE TIME AND ENOUGH TO GET TO 6" OTHER THAN UP AT THE
HIGHEST CASCADE ELEVATIONS. GFS HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM. RAP SHOWS LESS THAN 200 J/KG
AND IS MAXIMIZED IN THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SET UP FOR
SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL AND IF ONE SHOWER MAINTAINS ITSELF IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AT MOST. SREF
CALIBRATED PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS 40-50% IN THE NORTHERN
TIER...SO WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SO CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
BY TONIGHT THE UPPER JET WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...AND AS THIS OCCURS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND WILL WIDDLE DOWN
THE SHOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH STABILIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FOG BY MONDAY MORNING. LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE INITIAL SIGNS OF OUR UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE
BECOMES APPARENT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE
COAST. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION IS OCCURRING...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DIG. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE FEED OF
1+" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT
AS THIS IS OCCURRING. THERE IS SOME PRETTY STRONG LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INITIALLY WITH THIS WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN INLAND. THE MODELS ARE STILL MIXED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM/GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE...THE ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MAINLY DRY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SO WHILE NAM/GFS/SREF
HAVE BEEN SHOWING A TREND TOWARDS SOME LIGHT PRECIP...CAN ONLY GO
WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS AS THE ECMWF KEEPS INLAND AREAS DRY.
BEHIND THE FRONT ...SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST.
THE QUESTION AFTER THIS IS...HOW WARM WILL IT GET...AND WILL WE NEAR
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE SOME SHAPE OVER THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BEGIN AS TUESDAY WEARS ON. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS MODELED
TO BRING EASTERLY WIND ON WED...AND MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY APPROACH 80 AS WELL. THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU...LIKELY
ALLOWING SOME COOLING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST. BUT DECIDED TO BUMP
UP THE INTERIOR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN WED...WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID 80S. LOOKING AT AREA CLIMATE STATS...IT IS APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY MAKE A RUN AT SETTING SOME DAILY MAX TEMP
RECORDS ON WED AND THU. BY FRI...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MOVING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER EAST...WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROF
PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT THE FCST TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT AS IT SEEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE COOLING THINGS OFF ON THE DAY THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS
FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. STARTED BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BACK FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO PUSH
IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING RIDGE. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DECREASE
THIS EVENING. VFR PREVAILS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN THE 2000
TO 3000 FT RANGE SO FAR THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATING MVFR COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z SUN. BELIEVE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND NOT NEEDED AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MAY BRING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSLE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA MAY BRING BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS WELL. AIR MASS INSTABILTIY INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOPING
HAIL OR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER 9 HOURS OUT...BUT WILL MONITOR AND MAKE
SHORT TERM UPDATES AS NEEDED.
&&
.MARINE...GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE EASING. HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND
MON. ON SAT MODELS PICKED UP ON A NEW FEATURE FOR MON AND CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO ROTATE A WARM FRONT TO THE
WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER MARINE ZONES. HIGH
PRES BUILDS TUE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER THE
WATERS WED.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE A TRANSITION FROM WINDWAVE DOMINATED TO FRESH
SWELL THEN FINALLY LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TODAY. SEAS APPEAR
TO REMAIN 10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
323 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY...BUT
A BIG CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY BEHIND IT. BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT INLAND VALLEYS
WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONCERNS HOVER AROUND SNOW IN
THE CASCADES TODAY...MINOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A
TRANSITION TO WELL ABOVE AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEK.
WHILE THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE CASCADES...WE
CONTINUE TO SEE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
STRETCHED OUT AND REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT EXTENDS
NORTH AND THEN WEST TO THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
SANTIAM PASS (4800 FT) IS SNOW COVERED...AND THE PASSES AROUND MT
HOOD THAT ARE CLOSER TO 4000 FEET IN ELEVATION LOOK LIKE THEY ARE
GETTING SOME ACCUMULATION NOW.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SOMEWHAT ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN OREGON...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING IN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY.
PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES WILL BE FALLING AS SNOW. THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE PASSES THIS MORNING...THOUGH RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE
HEAVY AT ANY ONE TIME AND ENOUGH TO GET TO 6" OTHER THAN UP AT THE
HIGHEST CASCADE ELEVATIONS. GFS HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS THAN THE OTHER SHORT TERM. RAP SHOWS LESS THAN 200 J/KG
AND IS MAXIMIZED IN THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SET UP FOR
SHOWERS WITH SMALL HAIL AND IF ONE SHOWER MAINTAINS ITSELF IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AT MOST. SREF
CALIBRATED PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS 40-50% IN THE NORTHERN
TIER...SO WORTHY OF SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARMING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SO CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
BY TONIGHT THE UPPER JET WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...AND AS THIS OCCURS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND WILL WIDDLE DOWN
THE SHOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH STABILIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FOG BY MONDAY MORNING. LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE INITIAL SIGNS OF OUR UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE
BECOMES APPARENT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE
COAST. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION IS OCCURRING...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DIG. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THERE IS A MODEST MOISTURE FEED OF
1+" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT
AS THIS IS OCCURRING. THERE IS SOME PRETTY STRONG LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INITIALLY WITH THIS WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN INLAND. THE MODELS ARE STILL MIXED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM/GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE...THE ECMWF
KEEPS THINGS MAINLY DRY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SO WHILE NAM/GFS/SREF
HAVE BEEN SHOWING A TREND TOWARDS SOME LIGHT PRECIP...CAN ONLY GO
WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS AS THE ECMWF KEEPS INLAND AREAS DRY.
BEHIND THE FRONT ...SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY ALONG THE COAST.
THE QUESTION AFTER THIS IS...HOW WARM WILL IT GET...AND WILL WE NEAR
SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE SOME SHAPE OVER THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BEGIN AS TUESDAY WEARS ON. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS MODELED
TO BRING EASTERLY WIND ON WED...AND MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY APPROACH 80 AS WELL. THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU...LIKELY
ALLOWING SOME COOLING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST. BUT DECIDED TO BUMP
UP THE INTERIOR TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN WED...WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID 80S. LOOKING AT AREA CLIMATE STATS...IT IS APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY MAKE A RUN AT SETTING SOME DAILY MAX TEMP
RECORDS ON WED AND THU. BY FRI...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MOVING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER EAST...WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROF
PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT THE FCST TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT
INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT AS IT SEEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE COOLING THINGS OFF ON THE DAY THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS
FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. STARTED BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BACK FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO PUSH
IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING RIDGE. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DECREASE
THIS EVENING. VFR PREVAILS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN THE 2000
TO 3000 FT RANGE SO FAR THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATING MVFR COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z SUN. BELIEVE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AND NOT NEEDED AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MAY BRING PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSLE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR PREVAILING TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA MAY BRING BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE EASING. HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND
MON. ON SAT MODELS PICKED UP ON A NEW FEATURE FOR MON AND CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO ROTATE A WARM FRONT TO THE
WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER MARINE ZONES. HIGH
PRES BUILDS TUE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING NORTH OVER THE
WATERS WED.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE A TRANSITION FROM WINDWAVE DOMINATED TO FRESH
SWELL THEN FINALLY LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL TODAY. SEAS APPEAR
TO REMAIN 10 TO 12 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM
PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
639 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY
ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CONDITIONS WILL START OFF...WITH TEMPO MVFR WEATHER AS FIRST LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE NEXT STRONGER LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN FALL TO TEMPO IFR...WITH A TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINATE IFR/MVFR VERY LATE IN THE CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS AT
8-12KTS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 22-26KT RANGE CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
838 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY...BUT
A CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE THE 70S.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW 80S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. ANOTHER WARM DAY
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWERS ARE COMING IN WITH EARNEST
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE THAT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY ADDING TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS.SMALL
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND THERE MAY EVEN
BE A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE...MAINLY TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET...SO THE CASCADES
WILL KEEP GETTING NEW SNOW...THOUGH RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE HEAVY AT
ANY ONE TIME AND ENOUGH TO GET TO 6" OTHER THAN UP AT THE HIGHEST
CASCADE ELEVATIONS.
BY TONIGHT THE UPPER JET WILL BE LIFTING NORTH...AND AS THIS OCCURS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES FIRMLY IN CONTROL AND WILL WIDDLE DOWN
THE SHOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY. ENOUGH STABILIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FOG BY MONDAY MORNING.
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL SIGNS OF OUR UPCOMING
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BECOMES APPARENT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION IS
OCCURRING...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG. IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH
A MODEST MOISTURE FEED OF 1+" PRECIPITABLE WATER. MODELS INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INITIALLY WITH THIS WARM FRONT...BUT ARE
STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE THE
FRONTOGENESIS. THE NAM/GFS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
FRONTOGENESIS AND RAIN...WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY AND A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SET UP WEDNESDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
HARTLEY/KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW
WILL BRING DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION ON WED AND THU. A
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS MODELED TO BRING EASTERLY WIND ON
WED...AND MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS
INTO THE LOW 80S. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME COASTAL
SPOTS MAY APPROACH 80 AS WELL. THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU...LIKELY ALLOWING SOME COOLING ONSHORE FLOW
AT THE COAST. BUT DECIDED TO BUMP UP THE INTERIOR TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WED...WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S. LOOKING AT
AREA CLIMATE STATS...IT IS APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY MAKE A RUN AT
SETTING SOME DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS ON WED AND THU. BY FRI...THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER
EAST...WITH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROF PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THIS WOULD INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COOLING ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT THE
FCST TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT AS
IT SEEMS THAT THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE COOLING THINGS OFF
ON THE DAY THAT THE THERMAL TROF IS FCST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
STARTED BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP BACK FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF STARTS TO PUSH IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...COOL MOIST W FLOW ALOFT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT BRIEF MVFR UNDER THE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL HAVE SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL 03Z. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 03Z...WITH SOME CLEARING AT THAT TIME. LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNTIL 02Z.
AFTER 02Z...SHOWERS DECREASING. ROCKEY
&&
.MARINE...COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH PRES GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED...WILL STILL
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT UNDER THE SHOWERS TODAY. SEAS GENERALLY
HOLDING AT 9 TO 10 FT.
HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ROTATE A WARM FRONT ACROSS WATERS LATE MON THIS MAY BRING PERIOD
OF S TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS TUE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING ALONG THE
COAST WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR WED THROUGH FRI. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
816 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers are expected today over north Idaho and
eastern Washington. The showery weather today will be accompanied
by cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions this
afternoon. Drier and warmer weather will develop on Tuesday, and
much above average temperatures are expected Wednesday through at
least Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level wave over Northeast Washington will move into
North Idaho this morning into the early afternoon bringing
widespread showers. A combination of moderate precipitation
intensity...and wet bulb cooling has allowed snow levels to drop
as low as 1500-2000 feet over Pend Oreille and Stevens counties
with a report of 1.6" of snow near Clayton, with accumulations
also reported in Newport and on Loon Lake Summit. As temperatures
warm through the morning this snow will change to a rain/snow mix
in the valleys and thus the window for additional accumulations is
narrow and by 9-10 am most of what has fallen should begin to melt
as temperatures rise above freezing. However in the mountains snow
will continue with as much as 2-3 inches possible.
Meanwhile behind this wave downslope flow has developed in the
lee of the Cascades and thus have removed the chance of showers
for the morning in Wenatchee.
For this afternoon the atmosphere will destabilize with a 500mb
cold pool of -32C over the area. SPC Calibrated thunder chances
show the best chances for thunderstorms over the eastern third of
Washington where a combination of afternoon sun breaks and
lingering low level moisture will result in the highest CAPE
values ranging from 300-600 J/KG. Over North Central Washington as
the lower levels continue to dry due to downslope off the Cascades
cloud bases will rise to where any developing cumulus clouds will
be composed of mainly ice crystals with the needed charge
separation for thunder unlikely. The HRRR also shows less
intensity to the showers in these areas for the afternoon. Thus
have removed the slight chance of thunderstorms through the
evening for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An occluded front will continue to slowly push across
the region this morning spreading precipitation from southwest to
northeast across the aviation area. Some snow may mix in with the
rain at times and briefly accumulate above 2100 feet this morning.
The atmosphere will destabilize in the afternoon and evening and
may allow a few weak pulse thunderstorms to occur. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 32 54 36 63 40 / 80 20 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 50 29 53 33 63 35 / 90 60 20 0 0 0
Pullman 50 32 52 33 62 37 / 90 50 20 0 0 0
Lewiston 56 32 58 38 68 41 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 55 26 60 35 68 38 / 80 50 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 48 29 50 32 61 34 / 90 60 20 10 0 0
Kellogg 46 29 49 34 61 40 / 90 90 30 10 0 0
Moses Lake 60 34 63 39 68 40 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 58 35 64 44 69 45 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 58 30 62 35 68 38 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
649 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NEW MEXICO WITH BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM KABR TO KDVN AND HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TRIED TO MAKE
SOME TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND THEN
SOME LARGER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS /UP IN THE
WEST BY .3 TO .5 INCHES/...BUT MUCH OF TONIGHTS FORECAST LEFT AS
WAS.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP LOW WITH TROPOPAUSE FOLD
DOWN TO 700 MB OVER NEW MEXICO PER RAP TROP ANALYSIS. SURFACE
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SD/MN /1 MB PER HOUR/
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING WITH
25 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALREADY TONIGHT IN EASTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN NERN CO TO WRN NE AT 986 MB. SURFACE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOISTEN WITH 60F DEWPOINT LINE NOW INTO
NEB. NORTH OF THE W-E FRONT NEAR OMAHA-KSTL LINE...DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG DRIER EASTERLY FLOW /30S/...PRODUCING
SOME FIGHT TO RAIN SHOWERS TO HIT THE SURFACE /NOT THE TSRA
THOUGH AS HOURLY 0.25 INCH REPORTS ARE COMMON IN IA/.
GOES BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ HOURLY LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN
PLUME OF MOISTURE FOR INFLOW INTO TONIGHTS RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH
THRU OK/AR AT THIS TIME...WITH 1.5 INCH VALUES. ALREADY PRESENT
FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWRD INTO IA...A PW AXIS EXISTS OF ABOUT 0.60
INCHES WHICH IS 125-150 PERCENT NORMAL. THIS IS MAINLY MOISTURE
ABOVE 700MB /PER 00Z RAOB AT KABR/ AND ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH
PRETTY STEEP 500-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...WHICH IS WHERE THE
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED TONIGHT WITH MOST LIGHTNING. LAPSE
RATE GRADIENT RUNS KABR-KMCW WITH MAX OVER NEB AT 06Z. THE LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE LAPSE RATE STEEPENING AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH PUSHES THE GRADIENT
AND DESTABILIZATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE VERY WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO WE
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS MOVE
NORTH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE 750-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LLJ CONVERGENCE. KDMX IS 60 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH PER RADAR AND KARX 88D SHOWED 40 KTS FROM THE SE...SO NICE
CONVERGENCE TO MOIST PLUME ALOFT.
LATEST RAP AND LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THIS SHOWER AND
SCT TSRA REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. TSRA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHRA. THE
HRRR AND RAP...AS WELL AS NAM AND GFS...HAVE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE
OR LULL IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS TRANSPORT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE BUILT THIS INTO THE RAIN
CHANCES...WITH AN INCREASE LATE TODAY AND EVENING AS MAIN MOIST
PLUME AND FORCING RETURNS WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY BOTTOMED THE RAIN CHANCES OUT TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS A START.
WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
ROBUST WITH WINDS TODAY. FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS GUSTING TO 35
MPH WEST OF MISS RIVER AND WITH AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TODAY...WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. KARX 88D HAS 45-50
KTS AT 500M ABOVE THE RADAR AT 08Z. IT COULD BE RATHER GUSTY EAST
OF THE RIVER TOO IN WI WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND SOME SHALLOW MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT RAIN. GUSTS IN THE
30S ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT WI AREAS MONDAY MORNING AND A BREAK
SEEMS TO OCCUR THEN BEFORE THE WARM FRONT AGAIN BECOMES ACTIVE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REALLY BANK ON INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA /DUH/ AND THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT LOCATION WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER OR
SOUTH...AND RUNNING W-E. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP LIFT AND CLOUDS/RAIN BY MID-DAY MONDAY WHICH
DOESNT NOT LEAVE MUCH TIME TO DESTABILIZE.
THE LATEST SPC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK NORTH
TO JUST SOUTH OF KDBQ. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED STORMS. WIND SHEAR IS FAIR SO DYNAMIC LIFT WILL HAVE TO
ASSIST TO INVIGORATE THE STORMS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT SEEMS LOW
BUT POSSIBLE...WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. IF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA...SOME LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE...WHICH
WOULD MAKE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT
SEEMS CLOSE BUT NOT INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
LIMITED THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE RAIN AGAIN AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND ANOTHER
THEN FOLLOW BEHIND FOR TUESDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
ENHANCING THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE...SO ANOTHER INCH IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...SREF RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 2-2.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL ACROSS THE AREA
/MEAN/ WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS SURPRISINGLY. THIS IS
OUR CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR IMPACTS
ON RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND SHOWERY WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONG EAST WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHEAR BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 1500
FT...CREATING LLWS AT KLSE. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 39 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KRST. WIDESRPEAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE EDGES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS IS STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE. REVIEWING THE FORECASTS FOR THE CURRENT
72-HOUR RAINFALL AND ITS AFFECT ON RIVERS...THE RIVERS RESPOND BY
RISING TO/NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY SITES.
THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WILL REVIEW THE INFORMATION AND ARE
CONSIDERING...IN COOPERATION WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...PLACING THE 72 HOUR RAIN INTO THE ACTUAL FORECASTS.
RECALL THE POSTED FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED ONLY USE 24 HOUR
FORECAST RAINFALL. IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
EVENT...IT WOULD BE BETTER TO HAVE THAT 72 HOUR TOTAL INCLUDED.
HOWEVER...USERS OF RIVER DATA CAN GO TO THE LINK BELOW TO SEE 72
HOUR RAINFALL RIVER HYDROGRAPHS AT ANY TIME /ALL LOWER CASE AND
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE/...
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/CRH/RFC/MAPGRAPHICALDISPLAY.PHP
WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AS THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO VISIT THIS TOPIC WITH THE 72 HOUR RAINFALL RIVER
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
840 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYING
FARTHER SOUTH THAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...AND THE LOW
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING FARTHER EASTWARD TOO. THIS MAKES IT MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. DRY WEDGE ALREADY WRAPPING NORTHWARDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE LIKELY WRAPPED WESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THE FARTHER EAST TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SUMMIT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SNOW STARTS TO WIND DOWN IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THE TREND OF 06Z DATA POINTING TOWARDS LESS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. RADAR RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING THE ENHANCEMENT THAT
WAS EARLIER EXPECTED EITHER BY THIS POINT. SO...HAVE OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NOT TO SAY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT FALL TODAY...JUST IN LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
RADAR SHOWS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT KLAR IN IFR VIS AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AT KCYS BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LARGE
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FCSTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
IFR VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
35-45 KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
607 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THE TREND OF 06Z DATA POINTING TOWARDS LESS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. RADAR RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING THE ENHANCEMENT THAT
WAS EARLIER EXPECTED EITHER BY THIS POINT. SO...HAVE OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NOT TO SAY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT FALL TODAY...JUST IN LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
RADAR SHOWS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT KLAR IN IFR VIS AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AT KCYS BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LARGE
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FCSTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
IFR VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
35-45 KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
553 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
RADAR SHOWS THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST WY. KEPT KLAR IN IFR VIS AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID-MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER RAIN WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AT KCYS BY LATER THIS MORNING. A LARGE
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FCSTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
IFR VIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
35-45 KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STACKED OVER
NORTHWESTERN KS WITH SOUTHERN END OF WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION PRECIP
SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHEAST CO. FARTHER WEST...LAPS SURFACE
PRESSURE DATA SHOWS WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR KPUB...WHICH
HAS CREATED LIGHTER WINDS OVER MUCH OF PUEBLO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS IN GENERAL WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH CONVECTION ENDING AND STRONG SURFACE
GRADIENT LACKING...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEGUN TO VERY SLOWLY DECREASE
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE 40-
45 KT RANGE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS WIND SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY
PEAKED...AND GIVEN LACK OF OBSERVED 50 KT GUSTS...WILL CANCEL THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...STILL
SOME -SHSN OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THOUGH WEB CAMS SUGGEST
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR LOW VISIBILITY...AT LEAST AT
PASS LEVEL.
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH SOME HIGHER POPS
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP INCREASE -SHSN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY BREEZY AS STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE PERSIST. EXPECTING ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF WINDS/CLOUDS
TO KEEP PLAINS FROM A HARD FREEZE...THOUGH MOST MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S OR COLDER.
MONDAY...UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO ERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY...KEEPING STRONG NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ALL AREAS BY MID
MORNING...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE MOST LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
MON AFTERNOON...SUSPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL...WITH BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKING OK FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN QUEUED UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS TWO SEPARATE
PERIODS OF WEATHER TYPES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PINWHEEL ABOUT THE US CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THU...BEFORE FINALLY
EJECTING TO THE NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP
VERY BRISK AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE STATE INTO
THU...AS WELL AS A DAILY SHOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE CWA. AS THE
LOW LINGERS...LOBES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM AND
BRING PERIODICALLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THESE WINDOWS IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 30S TO 40S FOR THE MTS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS THROUGH
THU...WITH THE BEST SHOT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS
COMING TUE AFTN...AND AGAIN WED AFTN AND EVE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EC MODELS HINT THAT BY FRI THE
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...ALLOWING
THE UPPER FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION INTO THE
WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH
FRI AND SAT...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THAT THIS
FAR OUT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. BY SUNDAY PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN
END. LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW
SHIFTS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR FRI...THEN 70S FOR BOTH SAT
AND SUN. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS
AT KCOS AND KALS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02Z...THOUGH W-NW
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON
MON...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS ALL TERMINALS BY 16Z...THEN A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT BY
20Z. MAY SEE SOME VIRGA/-SHRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS DRIFT TOWARD KCOS
AND KALS AFTER 20Z AS WELL...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS.
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...-SHSN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS...WHERE AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. ON MON...SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP WITH PEAKS BECOMING OBSCURED MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z.
OVER THE PLAINS...-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS BY 02Z. WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1203 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
WILL LET WINTER STORM WARNING EXPIRE FOR AREAS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS WEB CAMS SUGGEST ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING AS OF NOON...AND LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
APPEARS CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED BAND OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS
AT KLAA. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER THREAT OF STRONG GUSTS AS MAIN BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SOME REPORTS OF LOW VIS IN BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT WITH RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WON`T ISSUE
ANY DUST HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
MAINLY VFR AT TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA
BRUSH BY JUST EAST OF KCOS IN THE 18Z-20Z TIME PERIOD. MAIN STORY
TODAY WILL BE STRONG N-NW WINDS...AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT GUSTS IN
THE 35-45 KT RANGE AT KCOS UNTIL 00Z-02Z...30-40 KTS AT KALS AND
KPUB. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG
W-NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z-16Z.
OVER THE MTS...PRECIP SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ON THE PLAINS...BAND OF -SHRA/-TSRA AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH 22Z...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
KS BY 00Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ095>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
APPEARS CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED BAND OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS
AT KLAA. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER THREAT OF STRONG GUSTS AS MAIN BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SOME REPORTS OF LOW VIS IN BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT WITH RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WON`T ISSUE
ANY DUST HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
MAINLY VFR AT TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA
BRUSH BY JUST EAST OF KCOS IN THE 18Z-20Z TIME PERIOD. MAIN STORY
TODAY WILL BE STRONG N-NW WINDS...AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT GUSTS IN
THE 35-45 KT RANGE AT KCOS UNTIL 00Z-02Z...30-40 KTS AT KALS AND
KPUB. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LOW VERY SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG
W-NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z-16Z.
OVER THE MTS...PRECIP SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ON THE PLAINS...BAND OF -SHRA/-TSRA AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH 22Z...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
KS BY 00Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ095>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-060-061-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1044 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
APPEARS CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED BAND OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH
THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS
AT KLAA. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
COVER THREAT OF STRONG GUSTS AS MAIN BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SOME REPORTS OF LOW VIS IN BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT WITH RAIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WON`T ISSUE
ANY DUST HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO PUEBLO. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO BEING SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL...WITH GENERALLY 30S TO 40S UNDER THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ITS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE FILTERED INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION AND SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT IS ALSO CURRENTLY
SNOWING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING
SNOW LEVELS STILL ABOVE 9 TO 10 KFT.
TODAY...MODELS ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE RAP AND HRRR HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS AS FAR
AS EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A
TROWAL...WHICH IS IN ITS FORMATION STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TRACKING IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
KIOWA COUNTY BY SUNSET. UNDER THE TROWAL PRECIPITATION
BAND...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...WITH AROUND ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN TRICKY. THE
STORM SYSTEM IS QUITE WARM AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND
9 KFT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORCE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER TELLER COUNTY AND
THE PALMER DIVIDE...TO NEAR 8 TO 7 KFT. GIVEN THE WARM GROUND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9
KFT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SOLID 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE AREAS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEE
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
HELP TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
WINDS ON EAST-WEST HIGHWAYS. ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS PLANTS
AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z/MON AND FOLLOWED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
...CONTINUED COOL AND UNSETTLED...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH -----...AS IT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IA AND MN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES GLANCES BY THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT. COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...THOUGH WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS MAY NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
HIT THE 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 15 PERCENT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
LOOK NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
COME CLOSE OR HIT THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TOO
EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AS THESE DO
NOT START UNTIL MAY 1ST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS BEHIND
THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER WITH QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS THE WETTEST MODEL...PRINTING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS SOME SNOW FOR THE SE
MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER...WHILE NAM IS VIRTUALLY
DRY. FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT IS A NICE
COMPROMISE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW
ACROSS CO ON WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF PULL THE H7 WINDS A LITTLE
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS GIVING THE SE MTS ANOTHER SHOT OF
SOME SNOW. GFS IS MUCH HEAVIER THAN EC WITH QPF...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL
BODE FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP...THOUGH ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FRI NIGHT...WHICH GFS KEEPS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE...SO HAVE TAPERED
BACK THE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
KALS...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH 16Z
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL. STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.
KCOS...LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY NEAR THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 14Z WITH REDUCED VIS AND CIGS
TO MVFR. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN AT THE TERMINAL. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY 17Z.
STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.
KPUB...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
14Z AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 16Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL
DROP TO MVFR TO IFR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ095>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-060-061-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THERE COULD BE A FEW TSRA
OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE BOUNDARIES CONVERGE BUT THESE WILL REMAIN
WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR
REGION AND FORECAST TO BE A LATE START AROUND 20-21Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. THE CHANGES WERE MADE DUE TO INSPECTION OF THE 12Z
SOUNDING AND RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SURFACE
WIND L/V EARLY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARIES
MERGE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO ANY RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP OVER GLADES COUNTY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
UP TOWARDS 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.
THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION ON MONDAY. THE BAND OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MOST
OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN FROM THE LAKE REGION NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PHASES THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH...AND DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NEAR THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MEAN LITTLE SEA-BREEZE IMPACT
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH GULF-BREEZE INTRUSION EXPECTED IN
NAPLES AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO W.
MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY WITH
JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
110 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR.
DRYLINE IS CONTINUING TO MIX EASTWARD...CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-135
CORRIDOR. SURFACE HEATING IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...IN
CONCERT WITH 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...OWING TO COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SINCE BEST
UPPER FORCING IS PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...QUESTIONS ARISE
WHETHER ENOUGH DRYLINE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ACTIVITY TO
FORM...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR. IF A FEW STORMS CAN
MANAGE TO FORM...QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. COULD ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL CAPE...AND STRONG LOW TO DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DRYLINE
ADVANCEMENT QUITE A BIT...SO THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS ARRIVED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE DRY-LINE...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ROBUST AND
HIGHER END SEVERE EPISODE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY-LINE SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR
EXPECT TO RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
ERODED MORE QUICKLY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS AS EARLY AS
MIDDAY...WHICH WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN DECENT LOW LEVEL
CAPE FOR MORE BUOYANT INITIAL UPDRAFTS WHERE SHEAR MAY COMBINE TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADIC STORMS BESIDES LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE DRY-LINE SHOULD PUSH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z-23Z.
THERE IS CONCERN BEHIND THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN A DRIER AND DEEPLY MIXED LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERE. BESIDES A WIND ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN...AREAS OF HAZE FROM BLOWING DUST AND PERHAPS SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY RESULT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE ALREADY
REPORTING SOME OF THIS AS OF VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE DEEP OCCLUDING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BECOMING
DIURNALLY STRONGER DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY SUPPORTING
ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BROADEN AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO TUESDAY WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
STILL ANTICIPATING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...AS A
DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST. CONSEQUENTLY...HELD ONTO VCTS WORDING AT KCNU.
OTHERWISE...STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. LATER
TONIGHT...MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SITS AND
SPINS NORTH OF THE REGION.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY-LINE.
MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
HIGH GFDI VALUES AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO
MONDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 79 49 70 46 / 60 10 20 20
HUTCHINSON 78 47 69 44 / 40 10 20 20
NEWTON 77 47 68 45 / 60 10 20 20
ELDORADO 79 48 70 46 / 90 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 49 72 47 / 80 10 20 20
RUSSELL 75 44 65 42 / 10 20 20 30
GREAT BEND 75 45 66 42 / 10 10 20 30
SALINA 78 47 67 44 / 40 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 78 47 68 44 / 40 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 80 51 73 47 / 100 10 20 20
CHANUTE 79 50 71 46 / 100 20 20 20
IOLA 78 50 70 46 / 100 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 80 50 72 47 / 100 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068-082-083.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
425 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
STARTING INTO AN ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WHILE SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM. EASTERN KY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY WILL FIND THEMSELVES POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT...WITH WARM UNSTABLE AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY.
WHILE NOT MUCH PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN
TERMS OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL WORK TO HELP ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EASTWARD SLOWLY. LATEST HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/HRRR/AND ECMWF ALL POINT AT PRECIP
ENTERING INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z AND THEN CONTINUING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS ALSO AROUND THIS POINT THAT
GFS40 AND NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. WHILE LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
AND SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD WORK TO HOLD OFF SOME PRECIP IN THE
EVENING...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IN
DOING SO...MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
UNSTABLE AIR TO RISE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...BASED ON STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
UPSTREAM...HAVE KEPT THUNDER AS THE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z MONDAY...CHANCE POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
HOWEVER...LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A DRY POCKET
DEVELOPING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE. LATEST RUC13 OMEGA IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
IDEA...SHOWING DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE BY
9Z. THE QUESTION THEN WILL BE...HOW MUCH WILL THIS DOWNSLOPING
INHIBIT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT? HOW FAR INTO EASTERN KY COULD IT
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT STORM GROWTH AND RAIN...AND WILL WE STILL EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES...OR WILL DOWNSLOPE CUT OFF
POTENTIAL ALL TOGETHER? UNFORTUNATELY...THESE ARE ALL QUESTIONS
WHICH CAN/T REALLY BE ANSWERED UNTIL THE MAIN CONVECTION REACHES OUR
AREA. UNTIL THEN...WILL TRY TO PLAY ON THIS THINKING...AND TREND
DOWN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...THOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WITH THE FORCING SO GREAT IN
PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG PULL OF GULF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SHOWERS/TSRA TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING PULL.
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME...COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP FOR TOMORROW...SO HAVE TRIED
TO STICK TO A BLEND. Q VECTORS ARE SHOWING THE BEST AREAS FOR UPWARD
MOTION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME DECENT
CONVERGENCE DOES MAKE IT INTO KY AS WELL...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AS IT HEADS INTO EASTERN KY...EVEN THE QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE PICKS UP ON A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. THIS QUICKLY
DISAPPEARS AS THE BEST CONVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...SO
FURTHER SUPPORT THAT AT SOME POINT THE MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WIND DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ISN/T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT DEEPER. WINDS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE STRONG...SO EXPECT A GOOD DRIVING FORCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO TRAVERSE KY /AS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT POPS AND WEATHER/.
MONDAY NIGHT/S LINE OF STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING THE BEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE SHORT TERM ACCORDING TO THE LAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTER ROUND ONE OF PRECIP MOVES IN TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...A STRONGER SECOND LINE WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
MOISTURE GETTING PULLED IN WILL ALLOW FOR 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS WELL IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE BY 6Z TUESDAY...TRAVERSING EASTERN KY DURING
THIS TIME. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CONVECTIVE RAIN...AND THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER SMALL AREAS...THERE DOES LIE THE THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...INCLUDING EASTERN KY. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS THIS LINE MOVES OVER...SO ANY STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS BRING THE THREAT OF TRANSFERRING SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE GROUND. AS FAR AS THE FLOODING...WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH AT SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
ELECTED NOT TO DURING THE DAY SHIFT JUST FOR THE SHEER FACT THAT THE
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING...AND REALLY ITS GOING
TO BE A MATTER OF HOW MUCH PRECIP WE END UP RECEIVING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO KNOW HOW SATURATED THE SOIL WILL BE
LEADING INTO THE EVENING. WILL MENTION CONCERNS TO INCOMING SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LARGE AND
LUMBERING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS DOMINANT FEATURE ROLLS OVER ON ITSELF AS IT
SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY EXITING INTO EASTERN CANADA.
BEFORE IT DOES SO...A CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY
PACKETS WILL PLOW THROUGH KENTUCKY BRINGING PERIODIC SUPPORT TO
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY...A KEY ONE OF THESE
PACKETS MOVES OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE PACKETS DO WEAKEN WITH TIME
SO THAT THE VERSION THAT GOES THROUGH ON MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY NOT PACK THE PUNCH OF THE EARLIER ONES. FALLING HEIGHTS
LOCALLY WILL BE NOTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING EVEN AS THE MAIN LOW TO
THE NORTH WEAKENS BUT BY THIS TIME THE ENERGY SWIRLING PAST WILL BE
SIMILARLY WEAKER. IT IS ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME THAT THE AGREEMENT OF
THE GEM WITH THE NEARLY LOCKSTEP ECMWF AND GFS AT MID LEVELS FADES
AND ITS SOLUTION IS SUBSEQUENTLY DISCOUNTED. THE OTHER MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS OVER EAST
KENTUCKY INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER...MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN...TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS A BIT
BETTER CONSOLIDATED WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF AS IT TAKES ITS AXIS
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SNEAKS A LEAD
WAVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE REST OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL THEN TICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTION
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND ON A WELCOMED QUIETER NOTE. FOR THE
FORECAST HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE LATEST ECMWF THEREAFTER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AT LEAST ONE LAST STORMY DAY AND NIGHT
TO START THE EXTENDED. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 12Z TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SURGE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
ROLLING INTO THE AREA LATER THAT DAY WILL START TO ACT ON THE
ENVIRONMENT OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...TO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY LIKELY KICKING OFF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. WITH THE VEERING SHEAR PROFILE AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
INSTABILITY BY EVENING TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. THESE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING OUT TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM/S SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEARBY FRONT AND LOW MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAVE WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDER THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR EAST AND MAINLY EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHILE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDER TO A MINIMUM. HAVE GONE WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEFINITELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE
BULK OF THE EXTENDED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM/S SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY REMAINS THE MOST
CHALLENGING DAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES DUE TO QUESTIONS OF CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING EARLY MORNING BATCH OF CONVECTION. MORE...AND
QUICKER...CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
70S AND ALSO SPIKE THE INSTABILITY MAKING FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CAPPED AND
INSTABILITY/SVR POTENTIAL MORE LIMITED.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN PRETTY GOOD FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FOR
A DRY SUNDAY. DID ALSO FINE TUNE SOME LOW TEMP GRIDS LATER IN THE
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WHILE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR BOTH THE WEATHER
AND ASSOCIATED PARAMETERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A COLD
FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...SLOWLY CRAWLING EASTWARD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TURNING INTO SOME
DECENT THUNDERSTORM CELLS. DESPITE MOST MODEL PRECIP DATA AND ONGOING
FORECAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD...POTENTIALLY HAMPERING
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE EXACT
SET UP/TIMING/ AND IMPACTS TO TAF SITES HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALL DEFINITE THREATS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
STARTING INTO AN ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WHILE SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THIS SYSTEM. EASTERN KY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY WILL FIND THEMSELVES POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT...WITH WARM UNSTABLE AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER IN AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY.
WHILE NOT MUCH PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN
TERMS OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS...THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL WORK TO HELP ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO SPREAD EASTWARD SLOWLY. LATEST HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM12/HRRR/AND ECMWF ALL POINT AT PRECIP
ENTERING INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z AND THEN CONTINUING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IT IS ALSO AROUND THIS POINT THAT
GFS40 AND NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
SHEER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. WHILE LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
AND SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD WORK TO HOLD OFF SOME PRECIP IN THE
EVENING...EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IN
DOING SO...MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
UNSTABLE AIR TO RISE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...BASED ON STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
UPSTREAM...HAVE KEPT THUNDER AS THE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z MONDAY...CHANCE POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
HOWEVER...LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A DRY POCKET
DEVELOPING AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE. LATEST RUC13 OMEGA IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
IDEA...SHOWING DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE BY
9Z. THE QUESTION THEN WILL BE...HOW MUCH WILL THIS DOWNSLOPING
INHIBIT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT? HOW FAR INTO EASTERN KY COULD IT
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT STORM GROWTH AND RAIN...AND WILL WE STILL EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES...OR WILL DOWNSLOPE CUT OFF
POTENTIAL ALL TOGETHER? UNFORTUNATELY...THESE ARE ALL QUESTIONS
WHICH CAN/T REALLY BE ANSWERED UNTIL THE MAIN CONVECTION REACHES OUR
AREA. UNTIL THEN...WILL TRY TO PLAY ON THIS THINKING...AND TREND
DOWN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...THOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WITH THE FORCING SO GREAT IN
PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT...AND A STRONG PULL OF GULF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SHOWERS/TSRA TO OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING PULL.
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME...COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ON THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP FOR TOMORROW...SO HAVE TRIED
TO STICK TO A BLEND. Q VECTORS ARE SHOWING THE BEST AREAS FOR UPWARD
MOTION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME DECENT
CONVERGENCE DOES MAKE IT INTO KY AS WELL...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AS IT HEADS INTO EASTERN KY...EVEN THE QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE PICKS UP ON A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. THIS QUICKLY
DISAPPEARS AS THE BEST CONVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...SO
FURTHER SUPPORT THAT AT SOME POINT THE MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WIND DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ISN/T QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THAT EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT DEEPER. WINDS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE QUITE STRONG...SO EXPECT A GOOD DRIVING FORCE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO TRAVERSE KY /AS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT POPS AND WEATHER/.
MONDAY NIGHT/S LINE OF STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING THE BEST
THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIP DURING THE SHORT TERM ACCORDING TO THE LAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTER ROUND ONE OF PRECIP MOVES IN TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...A STRONGER SECOND LINE WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
MOISTURE GETTING PULLED IN WILL ALLOW FOR 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS WELL IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE BY 6Z TUESDAY...TRAVERSING EASTERN KY DURING
THIS TIME. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CONVECTIVE RAIN...AND THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS
OVER SMALL AREAS...THERE DOES LIE THE THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...INCLUDING EASTERN KY. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS THIS LINE MOVES OVER...SO ANY STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS BRING THE THREAT OF TRANSFERRING SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE GROUND. AS FAR AS THE FLOODING...WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH AT SOME POINT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
ELECTED NOT TO DURING THE DAY SHIFT JUST FOR THE SHEER FACT THAT THE
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING...AND REALLY ITS GOING
TO BE A MATTER OF HOW MUCH PRECIP WE END UP RECEIVING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO KNOW HOW SATURATED THE SOIL WILL BE
LEADING INTO THE EVENING. WILL MENTION CONCERNS TO INCOMING SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY ON IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BLOCKY LONG WAVE PATTERN TO
DOMINATE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A PLAINS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ITS WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING STORMY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING ON TIMING
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY SPAWNED FROM THE LOW...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STOUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE NOSING IN
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION TO MOVE IN
ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST
WITH TIME. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WEAKER-SIDE...HOWEVER
AN AMPLE WIND PROFILE A DEEPER FORCING MAY WIND UP OVERCOMING THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT AND A
SECONDARY THREAT OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW
STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...PWATS WILL BE
APPROACHING 90TH PERCENTILE PLUS AND WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE
ORIENTING ITSELF NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...SOME
TRAINING WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE QUESTION REMAINS...WHERE
DOES ALL OF THIS SET UP EXACTLY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST 06Z NAM
HAVE THE CONVECTIVE LINE CULMINATING OUT IN CENTRAL KY/TN AND SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
ONCE THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE DEEP
SOUTH...KEEPING KENTUCKY OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE MEAGER ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER SHEAR LOOKS AMPLE...WITH MORE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PARTICULAR...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF MORE
DISCRETE CELLS. AS SUCH...WILL STILL BE MENTIONING A SEVERE POTENTIAL
HERE...BUT WITH JUST LESS UNCERTAINTY SINCE MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT PRECEDING THIS PERIOD.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...HOWEVER WITH LESS INTENSITY EACH DAY...AS WE LOSE
INSTABILITY AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS OFF. HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST IDEA...KEEPING POPS MORE DIURNALLY FOCUSED EACH
DAY. HIGHS WILL DROP FROM THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WHILE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR BOTH THE WEATHER
AND ASSOCIATED PARAMTERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A COLD
FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...SLOWLY CRAWLING EASTWARD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TURNING INTO SOME
DECENT THUNDERSTORM CELLS. DESPITE MOST MODEL PRECIP DATA AND ONGOING
FORECAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD...POTENTIALLY HAMPERING
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE EXACT
SET UP/TIMING/ AND IMPACTS TO TAF SITES HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALL DEFINATE THREATS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
121 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Have updated the grids this morning mainly to account for the
expected evolution of convection this afternoon. WV imagery depicts
a PV anomaly ejecting out of the main upper low. This shortwave is
currently across portions of eastern TX and OK, but will quickly
race northeast this afternoon. In response to this ejecting
feature, isentropic ascent has led to the development of convection
across AR/MS this morning. This convection will continue to push
northeast through the day. The latest HRRR has the best handle of
the ongoing convection, so have leaned on that for timing. This
makes for a slightly faster arrival into the region than the
previous forecast, getting convection into our southwest CWA by
18-19Z, and up toward the Louisville metro by about 21-23Z.
Guidance still tries to develop decent instability (1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) out ahead of this incoming wave this afternoon, although
this is likely a bit overdone given dewpoints are too high in
guidance. Nonetheless, still feel there is potential for a few
strong to perhaps marginally severe storms mainly along and west of
I-65 given bulk shear values of 20-30 knots. Will continue to
monitor the evolution upstream this morning and provide updates as
needed.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Expect one last warm and partly cloudy day today before a slow
moving cyclone brings several days of episodic storminess beginning
late this evening.
At 500mb a blocking pattern is developing across North America. This
will drastically slow the progression of any individual waves across
the CONUS through the middle of next week. Currently, a potent jet
is wrapping around the eastern side of a deep upper trough now
located over Colorado. This cyclone will deepen farther and close
off as it encounters a persistent ridge that is forecast to lie
right over the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon. By early Sunday,
this cyclone is expected to occlude and become cutoff over western
Kansas.
Moisture, especially at mid-levels, will increase this afternoon and
evening as southwesterly winds aloft brings in modified Gulf
moisture northeast from Arkansas. Dewpoints won`t rise much at the
surface until tonight as easterly surface winds will continue to
advect continental air from over the Appalachians. Expect warm
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the upper 70s to near 80.
The first of several disturbances associated with the sprawling
cyclone over the plains will arrive this evening. Forecast soundings
show adequate surface-based instability developing by late afternoon
and evening, especially southwest of Louisville. The GFS especially
forecasts scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
within the leading edge of a wholesale moisture surge. Aiding any
convection may be the remnants of an old northwest to southeast
orientated weak stationary front. Episodic convection may continue
through much of early Monday as a robust low level jet sets up.
After an expected break Monday, a second more potent round of
convection is expect to develop later Monday afternoon and continue
well into Tuesday morning. This second round will develop within an
area of maximized moisture convergence ahead of slow moving occluded
front. A potential exists for some training convection and locally
excessive rainfall to areas south and east of the Ohio River. Expect
mild temperatures in the lower 60s early Monday with highs Monday
well into the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
Still some debate about what will be ongoing at the start of the
period, with the GFS initiating a new line of convection west of the
region Monday afternoon and trudging it across our area Monday
night. The NAM however has a stronger line just to our east with a
weaker line initiating to the west and moving through Monday night.
The 12Z Euro leaned closer to the GFS solution. The biggest factor
will be how long precip lingers from earlier in the day Monday,
keeping instability down. A look at the end of the high-res WRF-NMM
and WRF-ARW indicates that both lean toward the NAM solution.
Given this uncertainty, one has to go to the basics. We will have a
pretty moist airmass in place. We do have plenty of deep-layered
shear to generate stronger thunderstorms. Confidence thus is fairly
high that we will have some thunderstorms Monday night, and they
should provide heavy rain, perhaps some minor flooding in areas that
receive heavy rain tonight and Monday.
For Tuesday, model consensus is pretty good that we will see a
longer breather in precip, as drier air works in aloft. However a
rather potent PV anomaly will rotate around the base of our large
scale low in the afternoon. This anomaly looks to come through at a
better time of day for severe potential. However the instability
looks to be stronger over the Deep South and would not be surprised
to see that area keep us from getting too many severe reports in our
forecast area. Agree with previous forecaster that the Lake
Cumberland region looks to have the best chance for severe, but
again this forecast relies on a lot of factors coming together so
stay tuned!
The multiple rounds of precip across the region, some heavy, could
spark some flash flooding. Given how relatively dry we have been the
last few weeks and the higher flash flood guidance, will hold off on
issuing a watch at this point. Will be issuing a Hydrologic Outlook
though, to highlight flood potential and let the next shift or two
decide if a flash flood watch is needed.
After the round of precip clears the area Tuesday evening, chances
for severe weather go down. However we will not be able to get rid
of rain chances the rest of the period as the stubborn upper low
takes a while to push through the Northern U.S. The GFS has light
QPF each day, but the other models are not showing as much. Will
keep slight chances each night and low-end chance each day with low
QPF.
Temperatures will start off above normal for highs Tuesday, then
turn noticeably colder as the cold upper low gets closer to our
region and lowers thicknesses. Highs could get near 80 Tuesday in
the breaks of the clouds. Then Wednesday they should drop to around
70 for most locations before dropping to around 60 Thursday through
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2014
A rather complex TAF period is in store as multiple rounds of
convection look to affect TAF sites, along with a marginal LLWS
setup tonight. Current radar imagery shows scattered storms
developing across portions of TN and western KY. These storms will
continue to develop northeast through the afternoon hours.
Confidence in storm coverage is highest at KBWG, with decreasing
confidence at KSDF and KLEX. Any terminal that does get a storm
could see briefly reduced cigs/vsbys, perhaps to IFR in the heavier
precipitation.
Otherwise, storms should diminish a bit in coverage late this
evening as the first wave pushes northeast. A low-level jet will
ramp up to the west and slide into the Ohio Valley overnight,
helping to bring renewed showers and thunderstorms into the region.
This low-level jet will produce a marginal LLWS setup, but think
surface winds will likely stay up a bit (perhaps even more than
currently forecasted), which should limit impacts. Again,
cigs/vsbys will likely drop in the heavier convection.
Precipitation will again diminish by mid-morning Monday, setting the
stage for another round of convection to develop in the afternoon,
possibly affecting KSDF during the planning period. Winds on Monday
will be considerably stronger than today, with sustained southerly
winds at 13-18 knots, with gusts of 20-25 knots.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
436 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW
OVER NW KS/SW NE...WITH A VIGOROUS PACIFIC JET NOSING IN FROM THE
PAC NW AND CURLING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MX INTO THE
WRN GULF. KLCH AND KPOE VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 50KT PLUS
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS HARD TO MISS OVER NW KS...WITH A
TRAILING CDFNT/DRYLINE THROUGH CENTRAL OK/TX.
HARD TO HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF FAITH IN ANY SPECIFIC SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE...AS PRECIOUS FEW CAUGHT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLINE SPC
4KM WRF WASNT TOO BAD...AND THE HRRR DID FINALLY CATCH ON. THESE
TWO MODELS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL
MODELS...DEPICT A BAND OF CONVECTION INITIATING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS NE TWD SHREVEPORT. THE
SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NORTHERN ZONES
TO BE AFFECTED GIVEN THE THE PROJECTED EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT IN THIS AREA...AND HOLD ONTO
THE SEVERE WORDING.
GENERALLY PRESERVED THE INHERITED INLAND WIND HAZARDS...BUT DID
TWEAK THE MARINE HAZARDS A BIT...EASING OUT OF THE SCA FOR THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS MID EVENING...AND THE INLAND WATERS WEST OF
CAMERON AFTER MIDNIGHT CONCURRENT WITH LATEST PROGS THAT SHOW
WINDS STARTING TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. A WIND ADVISORY MAY STILL BE WARRANTED FOR A TIME ACROSS
SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BUT WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW
MAKE THE CALL ON THAT AS IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL.
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST TOMORROW...AS THE
CDFNT PUSHES JUST EAST OF A KSHV TO KLFK LINE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS
IS...STAYING MAINLY WITH LOW TO MID RANGE POPS AND PRESERVING THE
SEVERE WORDING PER SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT IS STILL FCST TO PUSH THROUGH THE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON TUE...WITH THE SEVERE RISK DISPLACED TO OUR
EAST BY THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT IN IDEAL AGREEMENT...THE GFS
HAS COME A LONG WAY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN DEPICTING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES/LOWS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA WOULD BE THU NIGHT-FRI...AS BOTH MODELS
DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTING THROUGH THE NW GULF COAST
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT OVER THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS TONIGHT AND THE
WATERS WEST OF CAMERON LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TIDES WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL UNTIED STATES...CULMINATING IN A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 84 70 85 / 20 30 20 20
KBPT 72 84 69 85 / 20 20 20 20
KAEX 71 85 67 83 / 50 50 30 30
KLFT 72 84 71 85 / 30 40 40 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALLEN-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-EVANGELINE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-VERNON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALCASIEU
LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CDT TONIGHT FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR VERMILION BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA. SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS...AND FORECAST AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS IS CAPPED ACROSS THE AREA BELOW 800 MB. A FEW SPOTS OF
CONVECTION SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING GUSTS TO
25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS
MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MESOSCALE...INCLUDING HRRR AND 3KM WRF...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE FACT THAT THERE IS ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING IN SW
LOUISIANA MERITS THE MENTION OF AT LEAST SMALL POPS TONIGHT...WITH
BEST CHANCES NORTH.
MESOSCALE 9KM WRF SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA PRIOR TO ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO BREAK LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
CAP WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER
7-8C/KM...CAPES IN 2000-3000 RANGE. BEST WIND FIELDS WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE. BEST THREAT WILL BE
FROM INTERSTATE 12 NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TUESDAY. PLAN IS TO GO WELL ABOVE MAV POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...PAYING SOME HEED TO THE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MET
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TO SOME EXTENT...ALTHOUGH EVEN THOSE
POPS LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. AT THIS POINT...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...SO
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE 2 INCHES OR SO THAT THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE.
MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
HAVE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL SYSTEM ONLY PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND POSSIBLY THE
COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT DEVELOPS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE MIDWEEK FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
BUMPING THEM UP IN LATER FORECASTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT...MODERATING
SOMEWHAT BY WEEKS END. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CAM A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...SO THERE IS CURRENTLY NO MENTION OF CONVECTION IN
THE TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY
UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...SO LOOK FOR EXTENSIONS AND
CHANGES IN THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GET A STRONGER PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS INTO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 82 69 82 / 20 50 60 40
BTR 71 87 71 87 / 20 40 60 40
ASD 70 84 70 83 / 20 30 60 60
MSY 72 84 72 84 / 20 30 60 50
GPT 73 81 72 81 / 20 30 70 60
PQL 69 81 69 80 / 20 20 60 60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
645 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AROUND LOW PRES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
APART TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE WHERE THE LOW
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TEMPERATURES AND WHERE TO
PLACE RAINFALL CHANCES.
LOW PRES WAS SPINNING SE OF NOVA SCOTIA PER THE 18Z ANALYSIS. SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW EXTENDED BACK EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE. THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MOVED SSW EARLY TODAY
AND ANOTHER ROUND IS APPROACHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AS SEEN BY THE LATEST
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. BEST
SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING
IS THERE AS SEEN BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM12. EXPECTING THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED CHANCE
POPS(30-50%) FOR THE CWA TONIGHT W/THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER W AND SW,
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE 32F WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SEE NO SUPPORT FOR THIS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEREFORE, STAYED W/QPF OF 0.10" OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES IS FORECAST TO WEDGE DOWN FROM CANADA. SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL HANG ON TO MORE
CLOUDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES. DECIDED TO
BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY UP TO READINGS AOA 50F MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL
HANG W/MORE CLOUDS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATER WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LONG RANGE
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES
TOWARD THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST FOR THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUSION
MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. STEADIER RAIN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS TIME AND A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS HOWEVER THE
ECMWF MODEL BRINGS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DRYING IN FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVES NORTH UP
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTATION IS FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING(01Z). A PERIOD OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT(AFT 05Z) AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECIDED TO STAY W/MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
THE UPSHOT TO THIS IS THAT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR TAF SITES BY
MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR AND THEN IFR THURSDAY AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA ATTM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO
HIGH FOR THE WINDS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PUSH THE SPEEDS
BACK. THEREFORE, AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECISION HERE WAS TO
KEEP WINDS GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS W/SUSTAINED WINDS 15+ KTS INTO
MONDAY. THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 25NM COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS.
WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ALSO RUNNING BELOW THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE. SO, SEAS WERE LIMITED TO 5 FT AND THIS IS
AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS
SE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUSION MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THESE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
341 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CHALLENGE WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TEMPERATURES AND WHERE TO
PLACE RAINFALL CHANCES.
LOW PRES WAS SPINNING SE OF NOVA SCOTIA PER THE 18Z ANALYSIS. SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW EXTENDED BACK EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE. THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MOVED SSW EARLY TODAY
AND ANOTHER ROUND IS APPROACHING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO DRIER AIR AS SEEN BY THE LATEST
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. BEST
SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
WASHINGTON COUNTY. DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING
IS THERE AS SEEN BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM12. EXPECTING THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED CHANCE
POPS(30-50%) FOR THE CWA TONIGHT W/THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER W AND SW,
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE 32F WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SEE NO SUPPORT FOR THIS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THEREFORE, STAYED W/QPF OF 0.10" OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES IS FORECAST TO WEDGE DOWN FROM CANADA. SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL HANG ON TO MORE
CLOUDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES. DECIDED TO
BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY UP TO READINGS AOA 50F MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL
HANG W/MORE CLOUDS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 40S
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATER WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LONG RANGE
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES
TOWARD THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST FOR THURSDAY AS AN OCCLUSION
MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. STEADIER RAIN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS TIME AND A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS HOWEVER THE
ECMWF MODEL BRINGS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DRYING IN FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDS WITH AT
LEAST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVES NORTH UP
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MVFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB. EXPECTATION IS FOR CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING(01Z). A PERIOD OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT(AFT 05Z) AND THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECIDED TO STAY W/MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
THE UPSHOT TO THIS IS THAT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR TAF SITES BY
MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR AND THEN IFR THURSDAY AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA ATTM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO
HIGH FOR THE WINDS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PUSH THE SPEEDS
BACK. THEREFORE, AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECISION HERE WAS TO
KEEP WINDS GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS W/SUSTAINED WINDS 15+ KTS INTO
MONDAY. THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 25NM COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS.
WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ALSO RUNNING BELOW THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
LATEST SWAN GUIDANCE. SO, SEAS WERE LIMITED TO 5 FT AND THIS IS
AWAY FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS
SE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUSION MOVING THROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO BRING RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THESE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEGATIVE TILT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NW CONUS WITH A LOW OVER WRN KS AND A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS THROUGH WRN LAKES INTO MANITOBA.
AT THE SFC...A BRISK ERLY FLOW PREVAILED THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND A DEEP LOW OVER NW KS. AN
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PCPN WAS PRODUCING MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES INTO
THE FAR WRN CWA NEAR IWD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE VERY DRY LAYER BELOW
750 MB. HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAIN OVER WRN INTO N
CNTRL WI...SUPPORTED BY 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS LIFTING TOWARD
UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME WITH THE ERLY LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. FARTHER TO THE EAST...OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI...THE DRY
AIR...PER 12Z APX SOUNDING...SHOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE AT SLOWING THE
ADVANCE AND REDUCING PCPN CHANCES. WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN...SOME SNOW OR SLEET MAY ALSO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PER NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
MON...THE MODELS WERE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE
ADVANCE OF PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WERE NOW ON
THE SLOWER SIDE COMPARED TO GEM. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
WOBBLES TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS FROM
SRN IA INTO NRN INDIANA. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD UPPER
MI WITH INCREASING 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE 850 MB
WARM FRONT THROUGH CNTRL WI. THERE IS STILL LIKELY TO BE SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN BAND THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WI BORDER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS VERY LOCKED INTO IDEA THAT WHILE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND TSRA AND SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTN ALONG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF SFC LOW OVER NEB. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY LIFTING AHEAD OF PARENT UPPER LOW.
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SHRA WILL ALREADY BE LIFTING TOWARD UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL DUE TO REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING PER SSW-NNE ORIENTED
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND H85-H7 MOSITURE TRANSPORT.
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL GLIDE TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH VEERING H85-H7 FLOW FM ESE
TO MORE SSW. FOLLOWING THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND RIBBON OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING. BASED ON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES/H85 TEMPS AND HEIGHT OF
WBZERO...MAY SEE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN PERHAPS EVEN LINGERING INTO MID AFTN.
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. WILL LEAVE OUT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AS
TRAVEL WOULD PROBABLY BE ONLY MINIMALLY IMPACTED. BY LATE
AFTN...EXPECT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS H85 TEMPS SURGE ABOVE ZERO.
THIS MAY BE OCCURRING WHEN MAJORITY OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
COMING TO AN END THOUGH. BY TUE EVENING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DRYING ABOVE H9...SO THERE MAY BE DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE SFC-H85 SO BY THAT TIME WILL ONLY BE DEALING WITH LIQUID PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SEEMS TO BE A TREND FOR BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN TO THE EAST...ALLOWING BULK OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY TO SURGE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. HOWEVER...SIGNAL THAT HIGHER THETA-E
AT H8-H7 WILL BE WRAPPING WESTWARD ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON CYCLONIC
NORTH SIDE OF FILLING SFC-H85 LOWS. RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WOULD ONLY BE
BOLSTERED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH NE BLYR WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND WILL KEEP
WITH THE CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOWS. THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH AND WEST OF H85 LOW WHERE
HIGHER THETA-E CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ALSO WHERE
LINGERING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. YET...CANNOT RULE OUT
PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA AS OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL
PROBABLY BE CYCLING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER AND THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER REGION.
DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP THAT OCCURS BEYOND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
BE HEAVY AS RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE HEADING WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION BY THAT TIME. GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SFC /H85 TEMPS DROPPING BLO 0C PER GFS/ECMWF/
COULD RESULT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF CWA LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MAY EVEN SEE MIX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR POPS BY THAT TIME THOUGH AS
SYSTEM WILL BE UNRAVELLING AS IT LIFTS EAST AND NORTH AWAY FM LK
SUPERIOR/UPR MICHIGAN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL FORECAST OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
NO WARM UP IS IN STORE. COULD BE MORE RAIN/SNOW BY NEXT SUNDAY AS
THERE ARE HINTS OF STRONGER SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIMING FOR THAT SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY
DICTATED BY THE UPPER LOW THIS WEEK AND HOW QUICK IT DEPARTS...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ALL THESE DETAILS WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK OUT. THUS...CHANGES TO MODEL CONSENSUS BEYEOND THURSDAY WERE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AT KIWD
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT ENE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
TOWARD DULUTH INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN LAKE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH
TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU AS THE LOW FILLS AND
REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...AND THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION IN DELTA COUNTY. AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
NONE OF THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT THESE
AND OTHER RIVERS MAY START TO RISE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN.
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 2
INCHES BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE
SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RUNOFF.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEG-TILT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH BUILDING 5H HGTS AND AMPLIFYING RDG OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES RESULTED IN A DRY ERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE ONLY REVEALS SOME BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FM
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN SPILLING INTO UPPER MI.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE AZ/CO BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
MID-LVL AND SFC LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. WAA PCPN LIFTING
THROUGH MN AND NRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE 850 MB WARM
FRONT HAS BEEN BREAKING APART ON THE NRN EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND DRY ERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH.
DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VERY EVIDENT
FM 00Z KGRB AND KINL SNDGS. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAN
TOWARD DRIER SOLN OF NAM AND REG GEM FOR OUR FCST AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLN. GENERALLY EXPECT
THAT PCPN WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH TODAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN (NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH) FINALLY REACHING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ALONG GREAT LAKES IN E-NE FLOW TO MID
40S TO AROUND 50 FARTHER INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
CHALLENGING LONG TERM IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND
DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED BY 12Z MON WITH
THE 986MB SFC LOW OVER NE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BROADEN AND WEAKEN
WHILE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR IA BY 00Z WED...WITH THE SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STOUT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W COAST
AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE E COAST AND CURVING
BACK OVER HUDSON BAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FORCE THE UPPER LOW
TO HANG OUT OVER THE NCENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW ACCORDING TO MODELS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A FRESHENING OF THE
PATTERN AND THE UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS AGREE WELL AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELED MASS FIELDS CHANGE AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS THE SCENTRAL CONUS
TODAY INTO MONDAY. MOST UNCERTAIN AND RIPE FOR CHANGE ARE DETAILS
RELATED TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA A FEW
TIMES THIS WEEK. OVERALL...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH DETAILS
YET AND WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH /ESPECIALLY AFTER MON/.
FOR MON...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FAR
SWRN CWA. THINK THAT MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK SHOWING A TIGHT
GRADIENT TO PRECIP /WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/
DUE TO VERY DRY AIR /1000-700MB RH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT/ OVER THE
NERN CWA AS A RESULT OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH OF 1050MB. THREW OUT THE
NAM FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT WAS BY FAR THE FARTHEST SW WITH THE PRECIP
AND OTHER MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO
THE SWRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN ON MON.
THE UPPER LOW MUST BE HUNGRY MON NIGHT BECAUSE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
SUCKING IN A WEAK UPPER LOW FROM QUEBEC...FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WRN/NRN CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. COLDER AIR IS
BROUGHT IN WITH THE WEAK LOW /IF THAT SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT/...WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NWRN CWA. AT THE TIME SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED PRECIP
WILL BE MINIMAL SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE/RAIN COMES ON TUE AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE...BUT GIVEN THAT MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THIS
AND THAT THE FORECAST HAS LIKELY OR GREATER POPS...WILL NOT CHANGE
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS INDICATE QPF ON TUE OF 0.25 INCHES OVER
THE WRN CWA TO OVER A HALF INCH OVER THE ERN CWA.
DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON TUE NIGHT...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STAYING PUT DRIZZLE MAY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE TUE
NIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT AND JUST CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR SOME RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WED...BRINGING AN OCCLUDING SFC
LOW INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN ON WED...ESPECIALLY IF A TROWAL SETS UP ON THE SW SIDE OF THE
850MB LOW /STACKED OVER THE SFC LOW/. AGAIN...LIKELY POPS IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY SO WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THAT.
HAVE FORECASTED STORM TOTAL QPF FROM MONDAY THROUGH WED OF AROUND
1.00 INCHES OVER NRN UPPER MI TO 1.50-2.00 INCHES ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT
LATER IN THE WEEK...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS LESS LIKELY SO GOING
CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HANDLE THINGS WELL. WILL
USE A CONSENSUS OF MODELS GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. COULD SEE A
RETURN OF MIXED PRECIP AS COOLER AIR MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AT KIWD
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
EAST WINDS INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT NE GALES TO 35KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TOWARD
DULUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING. EAST GALES ARE
THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MON OVER THE REST OF THE WESTERN
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HOWEVER WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO TUE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS FROM WED INTO THU
AS THE LOW FILLS AND REMAINS NEAR UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH
THE GROUND...SO DESPITE THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER...SOME AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH. LOCATIONS THAT ARE STILL NEAR OR
ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
CHASSELL...THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND
THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL
REMAINS NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES. THIS WOULD ADD TO THE FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SNOWMELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
RUNOFF.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST BATTLES MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE WIND. MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOW
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE DTW AREA.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM JAMES BAY DOWN THROUGH
THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WITH THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
RESIDING WELL WEST OF THE STATE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN HAS BEEN VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE
STABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN RESIDENCE. THE LOW STRATOCUMULUS THAT
PLAGUED THE NORTHERN CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...FORCED FROM COLD AIR
ADVECTION....RAPIDLY DISSIPATED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS HIGH
CLOUD SPILLING OVER THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE TRACKED OVERHEAD. THE LOSS OF
CLOUD TOP COOLING SEEMED TO HAVE AN ALMOST INSTANTANEOUS IMPACT ON
THE CLOUD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO COME UP WITH AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF
CLOUDS FOR THE DAYBREAK HOUR AS IT IS A TOUGH TASK TO GAIN SOME
HANDLING ON THE OPACITY OF THE CLOUD. WITH THE BLOCKED NATURE OF THE
FLOW/TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY...FAVOR A MORE TRANSPARENT HIGH CLOUD AND WILL BE VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODERATION OF THE
AIR MASS OF SOME 4C AT 850MB BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE IDEA OF
MORE INSOLATION...DECIDED TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME LOCATIONS OVERACHIEVING. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CHILLY EASTERLY WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP SOME DENIZENS OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
UNSATISFIED FOR A SECOND DAY.
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD NEAR SURFACE
DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED OFF OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. FOR
THESE REASONS...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME VIRGA APPROACH LENAWEE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES AROUND
12Z...BUT FEEL THE POTENTIAL TO MEASURE A HUNDREDTH IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A PRECIPITATION MENTION.
LONG TERM...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NEBRASKA BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE
PREVALENT LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
THE CIRCULATION/TROUGH UNDERGOES CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION IN SCALE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD WITH TIME...A POSITIONING THAT LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FIRMLY WITHIN THE EASTWARD FLANK OF THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELD
DURING THE EARLY AND MIDWEEK PERIODS. DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INITIATE A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E AND WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE RESPONSE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NET RESULT BEING A
STEADY NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION IN 850-925 MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS
THE ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS AND TRANSLATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY...OWING TO THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE EXISTING DRY
LAYER RETAINED WITH THE SURFACE-925 MB EASTERLY GRADIENT. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN OFTEN FAVORS A SLOWER EVOLUTION...SUPPORTING
THAT OF THE ECMWF/NAM IN PROVIDING A MORE INCREMENTAL RAMP UP OF
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB LARGELY SEEING A
DRY START TO THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
BOTH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND SOME FORM OF WEAK CVA
AS SHREDS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WORK THROUGH THE UPSTREAM
CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
/CONTAINING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER/ BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. QPF POTENTIAL IN THE HALF INCH RANGE WITH THIS FIRST
EPISODE OF PRECIPITATION. THE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.
LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...THE DETAILS
SENSITIVE TO PROPER PLACEMENT OF THE GOVERNING BACKGROUND DYNAMICS
TIED ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LODGED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL ANCHOR
POINT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN AN ADDED DIURNAL COMPONENT
AND CONTINUED FAVORED PLACEMENT OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE RUN POST-
FRONTALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. HIGHER END
POPS REMAIN WARRANTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PATTERN
PERSISTENCE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A NOTEWORTHY BREAK IN ACTIVITY
AT SOME POINT WITHIN ANY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THAT CAN
FILL IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
COOLER AIR WILL RAP BACK IN AROUND THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE LONGWAVE TROUGH STRUCTURE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GOOD DIURNAL
COMPONENT WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY. THIS WILL FIRMLY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
/50S/...LIKELY RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FIRMLY TAKE HOLD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OUT WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT ACROSS OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE THUMB. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THESE
LOCALES. EXPANSION OF ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS BY MONDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
409 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A POTENT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS
THIS AFTERNOON. A NICE JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...NOSING INTO CENTRAL KS.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...A HIGH AMPLITUDE...NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES INTO NRN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER GOODLAND KS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SSW INTO NERN NEW MEXICO. AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
NORTH OF THE LOW ALONG THE COLORADO/KS BORDER INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WEST OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...WHILE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...TEMPS WERE IN THE 60S AND
70S. A DRY LINE...EXTENDED NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO SWRN
NEBRASKA...WHERE IT TURNED SOUTHEAST INOT SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
TORNADIC THREAT GENERALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE BETTER
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SANDHILLS...GOOD SPEED SHEAR EXISTS...HOWEVER DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS LACKING PER LATEST KLNX VAD WIND PROFILER. IN THESE
AREAS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE OCCURRED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT...THEN
LEAD TO FORMATION OF DEFORMATION BAND AND SNOW POTENTIAL.
THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 20Z...WITH
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER KCBK.
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
TRYING TO KICK THE SYSTEM EAST TOO QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE
CONVECTION...WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS...WHERE THE WINDS
STRENGTHEN...AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW.
THE LATEST RAP MODEL MOVES THE SURFACE CIRCULATION TO NEAR KMCK BY
00Z THIS EVENING THEN OVER KHSI AT 06Z AND THEN MOVES IT UP TO
AROUND KBVN BY 12Z. THIS SOLUTION IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE NEW 18Z
NAM. THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN THAT AREA AND SUBSTANTIAL LIFT DUE
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS...EXPECT A GOOD
DEFORMATION BAND TO BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF MOISTURE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THE PRECIPITATION IS IF ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
TO GET SOME AREAS TO GET A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THE NAM AND THE RAP
BOTH SHOW WET BULB PROFILES BELOW ZERO UNTIL ABOUT 300FT OR LESS
ABOVE THE GROUND IN AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY
THE PINE RIDGE. IF THIS TURNS OUT...MAY SEE LOTS OF SNOW FALLING BUT
WILL BE MELTING WHEN HITTING THE SURFACE OR JUST PRIOR. BUT...EVEN
ONE DEGREE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO CHANGE OVER
COMPLETELY TO SNOW AND IF RATES BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...COULD GET
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MODELS ALL KEEPING THE
WET BULB TEMPERATURE ABOVE 0C...DID PUT A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT ONLY HAVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES ASSUMING THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL MELTING AT THE SURFACE.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL REMAIN FOR CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT. KEPT AT LEAST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN AREAS ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH GOING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE SYSTEM.
MOVING ON TO WINDS...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT. THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD AS SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30MPH STILL
LOOK LIKELY.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...DID CONSIDER A
NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW...OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WHICH WILL MIGRATE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 84 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE THREAT FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECASTING CONCERN. ON MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...DRIFTING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS H85 WINDS REACH 40 TO 50 KTS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND
DO NOT REALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. TO AVOID
CONFUSION...DECIDED TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER...TO ARTHUR...TO GARDEN COUNTY. IN
THESE AREAS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TOMORROW...BUT
AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND
WARNING AND WILL ISSUE A WATCH AND LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW MAKE THE
CALL. FURTHER EAST...TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NWD TO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY AND WILL
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO WIND...THERE
IS STILL A SMALL THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE RIDGE.
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM HAS THE COLDEST BOUNDARY LAYER OF THE THREE
MID RANGE MODELS. GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD UPSTREAM AIR ACROSS NERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ATTM...AM INCLINED TO TREND TEMPS
TOWARD THE WARMER GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
WORDED THE FORECAST WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA CLOSELY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHERE A STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET
UP AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EAST AND SUBSIDE SOME
IN THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS INTO SWRN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT
DATA...ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ONGOING WIND HEADLINES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE ATTM TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH OUR CURRENT HEADLINES. DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER EAST ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE PERIOD...THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL. H85 WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 35 TO 45 KTS ON TUESDAY...SO ANOTHER MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL
HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C
IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 3 C IN THE SOUTHWEST...HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. ON WEDNESDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL WARM TO 1C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER...THOUGH WINDY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AT THIS TIME...AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIND HEADLINES ATTM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIFTED EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND WILL FORCE COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHS WILL BE MORE MARCH LIKE WITH READINGS IN THE
50S EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH
CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO 4000 TO 6000 FT AGL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 15Z MONDAY. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
21Z. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER 00Z AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ022-035-056>058-069.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ022-035-056>058-069-070.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ023>025-
036-037-059-071-094.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ070.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ005-006-008-
009-026-027-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE COLD FRONT CURRENT EXTENDS FROM LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-BELOIT KS.
TOR WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS N OF THE FRONT.
AND WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT THE FRONT IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
THE ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MORNING TSTMS OVER ERN NEB/KS HAS RAPIDLY
THINNED. THE STATIONARITY OF THE FRONT MEANS A LONGER WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT. WE HAVE ALREADY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP. MUCAPE IS
CURRENTLY 500-1000 J/KG AND FURTHER INSOLATION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 50S MEANS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE 17Z RAP SUGGESTS
CAPE WILL PEAK 1200-2000 J/KG. WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
BE ALERT FOR ABNORMAL STORM MOVEMENT IN OUR WARNINGS /TO THE N OR
NW/. THESE STORMS WILL BE RACING 45-55 MPH. THAT MEANS YOUR
OPPORTUNITY TO RESPOND TO THREATENING WX WILL BE REDUCED.
ADDITIONAL STAFFING HAS ARRIVED.
PLEASE FOLLOW ALL WARNINGS/STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE AND WE WILL
CONT TO PROVIDE MESOSCALE UPDATES VIA THIS PRODUCT AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS...TIME PERMITTING.
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOW BE ACTIVATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THERE ARE NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HEADLINES FOR NON-
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WAS THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOCUSED ON IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE REALLY COME INTO RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES
TO THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE BIG SYNOPTIC FEATURES TODAY
INCLUDING THE SFC AND UPPER LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE DRY LINE.
HOW EXACTLY CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE AND FORM WITH REGARD TO
LOCATION AND TIMING DOES VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT THERE IS A
DECENT CONSENSUS THAT IS BUILDING.
AS FOR THE BIG FEATURES...THE UPPER 500MB LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH THE SFC LOW JUST TO ITS NORTH OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM NEAR
THE SFC LOW TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DECENT SIZED WARM SECTOR THAT WILL
INCLUDE THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE DRY LINE
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING TO OUR SOUTH
AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 5 PM. THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS THUNDERSTORMS
FORM NEAR THE DRY LINE AND THEN MOVE OFF THE DRY LINE INTO THE
WARM SECTOR WITH THIS SCENARIO POSSIBLY REPEATING ITSELF. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DRY LINE...WHICH BY AROUND MID DAY SHOULD
EXTEND FROM LEXINGTON...TO MINDEN...TO NELSON NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHERLY AT AROUND 40 TO 60
MPH...BUT COULD EVEN TRACK A LITTLE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW.
ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS IS A BIG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM WITH A LOT OF WIND SHEAR AND AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TORNADOES MAY COME FROM LESS
THAN CLASSIC LOOKING SUPERCELLS INCLUDING SOME LOWER TOPPED
SMALLER SUPERCELLS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW AND THERE IS
EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF SOME NON-MESOCYCLONE/LANDSPOUT TORNADOES
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE DRY LINE. SPOTTERS SHOULD
BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY.
WIND ADVISORY...THE LAPSE RATES ARE DRY ADIABATIC ALL THE WAY TO
700 MB THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND EXPECT STRONG
MIXING...WHICH WILL BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE WINDS ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE
ACROSS SOME OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY. THIS WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER NORTHWARD TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
TONIGHT...THINGS SHOULD REALLY QUIET DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE
INSTABILITY IS USED UP AND DEWPOINTS FALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT A LITTLE SOMETHING DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE
WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
IT FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH
AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR KANSAS. PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO EXPAND MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA COULD HAVE
PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL HAVE A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES AND ONE OF
THEM IS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE COLDER
THAN THE GFS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THE
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB DIP BELOW FREEZING. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL
IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE TREND OF JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BUT A COUPLE OF WAVES CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW COULD BRING A FEW
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP. WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 35
KNOTS. EVENTUALLY...THESE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AROUND 7 PM. WATCH
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...RESULTING IN REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY FALL LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE WITH INCREASING WINDS DUE TO
INCREASED MIXING. CONSEQUENTLY...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ072>075-
082>086.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-018-019.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...GUERRERO
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
131 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGINNING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY OF
DICKINSON. WILL ADD SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH..WHICH IS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO STAY STEADY THIS AFTERNOON SO CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
FIRST SURGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW PIVOTING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHER POPS WEST AND NORTH WITH LOWEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY. EARLY STAGES OF THIS CUT OFF LOW ARE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING WITH A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SO FAR WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER
WINDS EAST. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB AT ABR AND
THAT EVEN LOOKS LIMITED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THIS BAND LIFTS NORTH. COULD
BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES FOCUSED MORE IN THE WEST AND
EASTERN MONTANA. BUT ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.
FOR THIS MORNING AS OF 08 UTC...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF 700 MB BASED CAPE VALUES OF
700-1000 J/KG. FOLLOWING THE 06 UTC RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS...THIS ZONE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 11 UTC. THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THAT SAID...PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
85 WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO DEPICT 300-500 J/KG OF 700 MB CAPE.
IN GENERAL...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO MISSOURI ON TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS FOR NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH...WHERE TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH
TUESDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL...DYNAMIC COOLING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE LOW. THAT SAID...ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...OUR PESKY UPPER LOW IS
STILL SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST...LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BRINGING AND
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WANING AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEN
WE DRY OUT AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES STILL REMAIN. WE WILL
SEE PERIODIC QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NO BIG WARM-UPS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SLOW MOVING LARGE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO LOW IFR
AT KDIK. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT WILL LIMIT
VSBYS TO BELOW 1 MILE AFTER 10Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WIDESPREAD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN BASIN HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE.
LIMITING FACTORS IN RIVER RESPONSE WILL BE THAT THE FROST IS OUT
OF THE GROUND...AND IT HAS BEEN DRY. SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB
A LOT OF THE RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF IT. THAT SAID...STREAM AND
RIVER RISES...POSSIBLY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE...ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. A PUSH OF WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LINGERS OVER THE REGION. A COOLER AND STILL
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FCST AREA STILL FAIRLY DRY AHEAD OF APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY WIND AND DRY LOW LEVELS. HRRR IS
TRENDING WITH DIMINISHING THE TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SW IN/SE IL/W KY
AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS ENE TOWARD AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SLOWLY BUILT
CHANCE SHRA WITH SCT TSRA AFTER ESPECIALLY 02Z WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN FCST AREA IN THE 06/12Z
TIMEFRAME. PW VALUES ARE APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
TOWARD 12Z...BUT THIS BAND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND AM NOT
CONCERNED WITH TRW+ ISSUES WITH THIS FIRST ROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE FIRST PUSH OF MOISTURE TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME. A LULL IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON IS DEPENDENT ON HOW WORKED OVER OUR AREA
BECOMES DUE TO THE MORNING PRECIP. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHEREAS THE
NAM MUCH LESS AGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABY. CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.
WITH THE INCREASING LLJ INTO THE EVENING...SOME INCREASING LL
SHEAR...THOUGH BEST INSTABY AND WIND FIELDS INDICATE THE THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH.
AS THE ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH AN INTENSIFYING LLJ...OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREA WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AS THE
SYSTEM. AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS BEST TO OUR SOUTH...AND CONFIDENCE
OF FLASH FLOODING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH ATTM. WILL CONTINUE
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH BROAD SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION TO PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...INITIAL SFC FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONGOING CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND THEN RE-DEVELOPMENT DURG THE
LATE AFTN IN THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND MARGINAL INSTBY INDICATED BY MODEL SOLNS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SE EARLY TUESDAY WITH PW/S
APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO PIVOT NE AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM...PASSING NW OF
ILN/S FA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE ANOTHER
ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOLNS WORK SOME DRIER AIR
INTO ILN/S FA LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PIVOTS NE BUT HANG BACK TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT SATURDAY. THEREFORE...SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT SUNDAY WITH NEXT TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME MODERATION EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CIRRUS AND A LITTLE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
MOISTENING BEGINS ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THINKING THAT A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER SRN IND/NRN KY AND WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD CVG/LUK WHILE BATTLING RESIDUAL DRY AIR. ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT THESE SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT
GREAT...MAINTAINED THE SMALL TEMPO GROUP AND PUSHED THIS BACK IN
TIME IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AT SITES
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
USED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. FEEL A LITTLE BETTER
ABOUT A BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE DRIVING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
MVFR VIS/CIG CURRENTLY THE WORST THAT IS EXPECTED...AND COULD END
UP LARGELY A VFR EVENT GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS OF LATE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARD SOUTH BY LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
151 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY. A LARGE...POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A PUSH OF
WARM...MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING EPISODES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND STILL UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
27.12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PRETTY CLEARLY THE IMPACT OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. STILL QUITE
MILD /+12C/ AT 850MB WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW BUT RATHER STRONG
COOLING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT CENTERED NEAR/BELOW 925MB WITH
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. SURFACE TEMPS THIS MORNING RUNNING A GOOD
5-10F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AREA-WIDE...EVEN NEAR 15F OFF OF
YESTERDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS MAKES MAX TEMP FORECAST
TODAY TOUGH...AS DEPTH OF COOL AIR/EASTERLY FLOW DIMINISHES
TOWARD AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM JUST SOUTH OF EVANSVILLE TO SOUTH OF LEXINGTON.
RECENT RAP/HRRR ARE EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE IN PBL MIXING/WARMING
SUGGESTING TEMPS SOARING TO NEAR 80F AS FAR NORTH AS WILMINGTON -
AND THUS HAVE BEEN IGNORED. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG STATISTICAL
REGRESSION OF 925MB TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE...AND RAW 2M TEMPS FROM
VARIOUS NWP THAT SUGGESTS GOING TEMPS ARE ON TRACK /NEAR HIGHER
END OF MOS/ WITH EXPECTED HIGHS FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO MID 70S
FAR SOUTH. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING...JUST NOT TO
DEGREE OF RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS. HAVE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT EASTERLY FLOW/SLOW
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL KEEP MANY AREAS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN FCST SO WILL WATCH. OTHER ISSUE IS RAIN CHANCES THIS EVE
IN SE IND/NRN KY. SOME RECENT HRRR /NAM-WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
BULLISH IN LEADING ARC OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT /THETA-E ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO THESE AREAS AROUND
SUNSET OR JUST AFTER. OTHER STORM SCALE GUIDANCE /OPERATIONAL AND
PARALLEL ARW-WRF/ STRONGLY DISAGREES AND BREAKS UP SHRA BEFORE
PENETRATING THE FORECAST AREA. DEGREE OF FORCING LOOKS PRETTY
ANEMIC...AND AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCANT. DID INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES IN FAR SWRN CORNER OF AREA THIS EVENING...BUT DIDN/T
ALLOW THAT PUSH TO MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WAITING UNTIL STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE/FORCING ON
MONDAY MORNING. SO TONIGHT/S RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN ERN
IND/NRN KY AND TREND DOWNWARD INTO OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT THE DEEP H5 LOW OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE AN AREA SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ON MONDAY.
THIS INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH NE BY AFTN AND THERE MAY
BE A LULL WITH BREAKS OF SUN.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW MONDAY AFTN. THIS CAUSES A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE CONVECTION MIGHT NOT BE AS ORGANIZED
AS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE H5 LOW BEGINNING TO
FILL...THE MODELS DONT EJECT SIGNIFICANT ENERGY UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST DAYTIME HEATING TO DRIVE THE
CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN...KEPT THE POPS IN CHC CATEGORY BECAUSE OF
THIS ON TUESDAY.
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WONT BE AS TIGHT FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AS
THERE WERE ON SUNDAY. NRN COUNTIES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
60S...BUT THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 70S. BY
TUESDAY EVERYONE SHOULD BE IN TH MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO
PROGRESS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE UPPER
LOW POSITIONED TO OUR WEST...SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING TIMING...SO
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES... WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH MARGINAL INSTBY
INDICATED ON LATEST RUNS. WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE IN THE MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE
DEGREE OF THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS DURG
TUESDAY IN THE EAST EARLY AND THEN ENTERING THE WEST LATE.
MODEL SOLNS WORKING SOME DRIER AIR INTO ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY.
A DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW POP CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WITH THE BEST
THREAT ACRS THE NORTH.
TEMP WISE...READINGS TO START OUT A LTL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN TO CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. CIRRUS AND A LITTLE SCT-BKN MID CLOUD WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
MOISTENING BEGINS ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THINKING THAT A SCT-BKN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER SRN IND/NRN KY AND WORK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD CVG/LUK WHILE BATTLING RESIDUAL DRY AIR. ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT THESE SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT
GREAT...MAINTAINED THE SMALL TEMPO GROUP AND PUSHED THIS BACK IN
TIME IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. AT SITES
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
USED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. FEEL A LITTLE BETTER
ABOUT A BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE DRIVING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
MVFR VIS/CIG CURRENTLY THE WORST THAT IS EXPECTED...AND COULD END
UP LARGELY A VFR EVENT GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS OF LATE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND THEN EVENTUALLY TOWARD SOUTH BY LATER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
127 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IS
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY WARM FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT
AND CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNSTABLE. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRY
LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE SUPERCELLS
MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 8 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY
ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT TSRAS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AT
KMKL...KJBR AND KMEM WITH MVFR OCNL IFR CONDS. AS THE FRONT AND
TSRAS LIFT NORTH VFR CONDS WILL RETURN TEMPORARILY BEFORE THE
NEXT LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS PUSH IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY
LINE PUSH IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR OCNL
IFR CONDS. BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MON EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF
SHRAS AND TSRAS TO SHIFT EAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. TSRAS
MAY START REDEVELOPING BY MID MORNING ON MON SO INCLUDED A VCTS
TO INDICATE THAT POSSIBILITY.
SE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...AND SSW BY MON MORNING.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IS
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY WARM FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT
AND CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNSTABLE. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRY
LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE SUPERCELLS
MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 8 PM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND AGAIN TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WITH
READINGS AT 4 AM RANGING FROM 59 DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 72 DEGREES
AT CLARKSDALE MS.
A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS MORE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST AR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADJUSTED AND INCREASED THE POPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MUCH MORE SERIOUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD SETUP THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...VERY UNSTABLE
AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. A STRONG AND CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS. AN ASSOCIATED
DRY LINE WILL EXTEND AT EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO EASTERN
OK. PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN AR AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN CROSSING INTO
WEST TN ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. MIXED
LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 300 AND
350 M2/S2. 850 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THINK TONIGHT WILL BE A VERY
ACTIVE NIGHT WEATHERWISE AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MO AND WESTERN AR
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS FOR EAST ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING.
ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY SETTLE DOWN BRIEFING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH INSTABILITY TEMPORARILY WANING. BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING ALONG WITH
SOME INSTABILITY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL MAY POSE A THREAT OF
BECOMING SEVERE EVEN EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO EAST OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
MS INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AR BY SUNSET MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD.
THE SITUATION BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY TUESDAY WITH ALL THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND THE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST THE DRY LINE / COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST MS.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CONDITIONS WILL START OFF...WITH TEMPO MVFR WEATHER AS FIRST LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE NEXT STRONGER LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN FALL TO TEMPO IFR...WITH A TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINATE IFR/MVFR VERY LATE IN THE CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS AT
8-12KTS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 22-26KT RANGE CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-
DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-
PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS DRY LINE CLEARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY LINE IS NOW JUST AT DALLAS- FORT WORTH AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OVER DUE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CAP HAS
REMAINED STRONG. A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING LAUNCH FROM TEXAS A&M
SHOWS A PRETTY STOUT CAP IN PLACE AT 750 MB. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FROM THIS SOUNDING IS IN THE MID 90S WHICH IS VERY
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE HRRR
AND TEXAS TECH WRF DO TRY TO DEVELOP SOMETHING IN HOUSTON COUNTY
BUT QUICKLY MOVE IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALSO APPEARS TO BE NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL LOW. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS AND THE MENTION OF SEVERE.
TOMORROW THE DRY LINE WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY
ALONG A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HARRIS TO SAN JANCINTO COUNTY.
BEHIND THE DRY LINE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S LOOKS LIKELY. NEAR THE COAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MORE
CHECKED DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. TUESDAY MORNING THE DRY LINE
WILL START TO RETREAT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
QUICK WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN AND NAM 12 ARE
SLOWER. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE EURO AS FRONTS USUALLY SLOW DOWN
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH THE OCCLUDING MID- LATITUDE
CYCLONE.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHWARDS
HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PUSH A WEAK WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE VORT MAX MOVES SOUTHWARDS
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME QPF. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT THE CHANCE COMPLETELY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH THIS. 23
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP FOR THE BAYS...AND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
COME DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
CAUTION FLAGS ARE LIKELY AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 91 62 82 51 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 91 68 86 55 / 20 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 82 72 82 62 / 20 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
241 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
A WARM FRONT MAY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME RAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
A CHANGE TO DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND THE 80S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY FOR SLIGHT
COOLING...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER NW
OREGON. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH
WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF LIGHTNING...THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL FROM THE COAST
TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THOUGH ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PUSH THE SHORTWAVE NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.
SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AND WEB CAMERAS ARE SHOWING
SNOW COVERING THE ROADS AT MANY OF THE CASCADE PASSES. SNOW RATES
HAVE MAINTAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000
FEET...BUT EXPECT OVER A FOOT OF SNOW AT ABOVE 5000 FEET BY THE END
OF TONIGHT.
WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE ANY LOW CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND UPPER 50S FOR THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS STILL VARY ON
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE RAIN WITH ECMWF THE DRIEST AND GFS AND NAM
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF ACROSS NW OREGON. STILL THINK THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LEFT THE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE COAST AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
EVEN WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. MODELED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 15C
UNDER A 582 DAM 500 MB RIDGE. A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL
SUPPORT OFFSHORE WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND WARMING FOR THE COAST.
EXPECT INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
FCST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER. THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE OFFSHORE
THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THU. THU CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE
SOME LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT COOL THINGS OFF A BIT. FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS...WILL KEEP MID 80S IN THE FCST FOR HIGHS . THEN
THE THERMAL TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRI...WITH INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING THE COOLING PROCESS. THE HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHORT OF THU. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND MOVE E
NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AT
SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...COOL MOIST W FLOW ALOFT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS BUT EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
UNDER THE SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS WILL HAVE SMALL
HAIL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL 03Z.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER 03Z...THEN SOME CLEARING. WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
LOWLANDS. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MON AM AS WEAK
WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNTIL 03Z...THEN SHOWERS DECREASING AND
CLOUDS BREAKING UP. AS AIR MASS STABILIZES OVERNIGHT..MAY HAVE
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 12Z. ROCKEY
&&
.MARINE...COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH PRES GRADIENTS HAVE RELAXED...WILL STILL
HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT UNDER THE SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SEAS GENERALLY HOLDING AT 9 TO 10 FT.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MON
AND MON NIGHT...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT...MAINLY 10 NM AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE. AFTERWARDS...HIGH PRES BUILDS WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDING ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR WED
THROUGH SAT. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MON ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
UNTIL 7 PM TODAY...AND AGAIN 3 AM TO 8 AM MON.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 PM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and showery weather will linger into Monday but overall will
be not as widespread as the wet weather that occurred over the
weekend. Much drier and warmer weather will develop Tuesday
through Friday as strong high pressure builds over the region.
Warm weather is expected to peak Thursday and Friday with high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average. High pressure is
expected to gradually break down next weekend ushering in a
cooling trend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...An upper level trough will remain over
Central and Eastern Washington into North Idaho this evening
before moving into Montana on Monday. For this evening the
atmosphere will remain moist and unstable over the northern
mountains, the eastern third of Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle. Models show uncapped CAPE values of 300-600 J/KG with
the best instability over the Okanogan Highlands, Northeast
Washington Mountains, Spokane area, and Palouse where sunbreaks
have helped destabilize the atmosphere. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected through early this evening in these areas with small
hail or graupel expected with these storms. Across North Central
Washington strong downslope flow off the Cascades should result in
dry conditions for Wenatchee and Moses Lake. Showers will decrease
across the region after sunset with the loss of daytime heating
but will persist over the Central Panhandle Mountains and possibly
the Camas Prairie during the overnight hours with moist, unstable
northwest flow. On Monday the mid levels of the atmosphere will
warm as the trough moves east of the region. However models show
shallow convection developing over the higher terrain of the
northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle during the afternoon.
Elsewhere dry conditions are likely on Monday as the beginning of
a warming trend takes place. JW
Monday night through Wednesday...High pressure will build in from
the west Monday night and strengthen through the week. This will
result in a warming and drying trend. A few showers will linger
across the the central and north Idaho Panhandle mountains Monday
evening. And a weak disturbance is expected to move into the ridge
on Monday night but will get sheared apart. The effect on sensible
weather will be some variable high clouds over the Cascade.
Otherwise look for warm sunny days and clear cool nights.
Temperatures on Tuesday will warm into the 60s and low 70s and on
Wednesday mainly lowers 70s. The temperatures Wednesday will be
5-10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals. Winds will be mainly
light and diurnally driven. /Tobin
Thursday: Warm and dry weather will continue for at least one
more day. The high amplitude ridge still remains quite stout,
with lots of sun and temperatures in the 70s common. Upper 70s and
lower 80s will also be possible over the deep Columbia Basin.
Friday through Sunday night: While Friday will still be mostly
warm and dry, there are signs that the ridge will begin to break
down and some more unsettled weather will return once again. There
are a couple main players that will affect what happens in the far
extended portion of the forecast. One is a well-defined low
pressure that will move east toward the Pacific Northwest. The
other is a weather disturbance that rotates south around a Hudson
Bay low trough. The break-down of the ridge will depend on how far
east the Pacific low pressure gets and/or how far west the Hudson
Bay short-wave is located. The latest runs of the extended models
are in decent agreement (finally) that both will move close enough
to the Inland Northwest that the ridge will be pushed sufficiently
far enough south and east to open up at least some chances for
precipitation. Have gone ahead and nudged chances up further for
the weekend into early the following week. Right now it looks like
the best chances will be over the higher terrain of northeast
Washington and the northern/central Idaho Panhandle.
And finally, while the ridge break-down is agreed upon by the
models, the resulting end location of the Pacific cut-off low
pressure is still in question. Went with the status-quo for now
with plenty of time (and nice weather) to look into this.
As far as temperatures go, a general decrease in temperatures will
occur each day beginning Friday, with more normal early May
temperatures expected by late in the weekend. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An unstable air mass associated with an upper level
trough will promote cumulus buildups through the afternoon with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Downslope flow off
the Cascades will result in most of this activity over the eastern
third of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Meanwhile tightening
pressure gradient and good afternoon mixing over Central
Washington extending into Spokane and Pullman will result in
breezy winds mainly during the afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 54 35 63 39 71 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 31 53 31 62 37 70 / 40 20 10 0 0 0
Pullman 31 52 32 61 38 69 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 37 58 37 67 42 75 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Colville 31 60 32 69 37 75 / 50 10 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 32 50 29 63 36 69 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 33 49 32 62 38 68 / 70 30 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 33 63 37 69 42 77 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 40 64 42 71 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 32 62 32 70 40 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1044 AM PDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers are expected today over north Idaho and
eastern Washington. The showery weather today will be accompanied
by cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions this
afternoon. Drier and warmer weather will develop on Tuesday, and
much above average temperatures are expected Wednesday through at
least Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level wave over Northeast Washington will move into
North Idaho this morning into the early afternoon bringing
widespread showers. A combination of moderate precipitation
intensity...and wet bulb cooling has allowed snow levels to drop
as low as 1500-2000 feet over Pend Oreille and Stevens counties
with a report of 1.6" of snow near Clayton, with accumulations
also reported in Newport and on Loon Lake Summit. As temperatures
warm through the morning this snow will change to a rain/snow mix
in the valleys and thus the window for additional accumulations is
narrow and by 9-10 am most of what has fallen should begin to melt
as temperatures rise above freezing. However in the mountains snow
will continue with as much as 2-3 inches possible.
Meanwhile behind this wave downslope flow has developed in the
lee of the Cascades and thus have removed the chance of showers
for the morning in Wenatchee.
For this afternoon the atmosphere will destabilize with a 500mb
cold pool of -32C over the area. SPC Calibrated thunder chances
show the best chances for thunderstorms over the eastern third of
Washington where a combination of afternoon sun breaks and
lingering low level moisture will result in the highest CAPE
values ranging from 300-600 J/KG. Over North Central Washington as
the lower levels continue to dry due to downslope off the Cascades
cloud bases will rise to where any developing cumulus clouds will
be composed of mainly ice crystals with the needed charge
separation for thunder unlikely. The HRRR also shows less
intensity to the showers in these areas for the afternoon. Thus
have removed the slight chance of thunderstorms through the
evening for the Methow and Okanogan Valleys. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: An unstable air mass associated with an upper level
trough will promote cumulus buildups through the afternoon with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Downslope flow off
the Cascades will result in most of this activity over the eastern
third of Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. Meanwhile tightening
pressure gradient and good afternoon mixing over Central
Washington extending into Spokane and Pullman will result in
breezy winds mainly during the afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 32 54 36 63 40 / 70 20 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 49 29 53 33 63 35 / 90 60 20 0 0 0
Pullman 50 32 52 33 62 37 / 90 50 20 0 0 0
Lewiston 56 32 58 38 68 41 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Colville 55 26 60 35 68 38 / 80 50 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 46 29 50 32 61 34 / 90 60 20 10 0 0
Kellogg 45 29 49 34 61 40 / 90 90 30 10 0 0
Moses Lake 60 34 63 39 68 40 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 58 35 64 44 69 45 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 58 30 62 35 68 38 / 30 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
557 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT...MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND FGEN IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO REDEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS RAIN
BAND OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT COVERAGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THEN A POTENT LINE OF
STORMS IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHILE HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
ANTICIPATING THAT ARCING BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FGEN WILL HAVE WEAKENED AT THE START OF THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST. THEN ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK OR
REDUCED COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LINE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS PIVOTS AS IT MOVES NE INTO WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY LATE TONIGHT (THOUGH WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS INTENSE AS IT
STANDS CURRENTLY) DUE TO INCREASING 900-800MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FGEN. PRIOR TO THIS AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING...CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. BUT IN GENERAL...WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
STEADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY...THE ARCING BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
CONCERN THAT THE RAINS COULD BRING DOWN SOME BEEFY GUSTS FROM ALOFT
AS THE NAM IS DEPICTING WINDS UPWARDS OF 60 KTS ABOUT 2KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL MENTION HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
HWO. DESPITE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF A THUNDER CHANCE. BUT WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH
AND THE SLOWLY FORWARD PROGRESSION...DECENT RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.
NORTHERN AND NE WISCONSIN WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER DUE TO THE DRY NE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT THAT AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN TOO. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
PCPN TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND STRONG E-NE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY NIGHT...REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE IN THE FCST THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE BEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR AS A STRONG S/W TROF
ROTATES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND AS
ANOTHER WAVE OR WEAK UPPER LOW AFFECTS NE/N WI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE WI
LATE MON NGT/EARLY TUE...AND AGAIN LATE WED NGT/EARLY THU AND
LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN A LARGE HUDSON BAY
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MON
NGT. WITH ENE WINDS OF 35-50 KTS ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SFC...STRONG GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS...MAINLY CENTRAL WI AND THE FOX VALLEY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BANDS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
OF THE STATE AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE.
MEANWHILE DRY AIR ON EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
AREA TO KEEP CIGS MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. AS
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMPACT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ENSURE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR A FEW DAYS ALONG WITH LLWS
CONDITIONS DUE TO 2000 FOOT WINDS WINDS UP TO 50 KTS THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...AND 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES OVER THE SRN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FCST AREA...ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NGT PERIOD. THE RESULTING
RUNOFF COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL RIVERS
STILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON THE 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. ADDED POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH MAY MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY PER HRRR AND 4KM
WRF/NMM MODELS. ELEVATED CAPES ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SO COULD
HEAR CLAPS OF THUNDER AS WELL. THUS...KEPT THE POPS GOING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY HAVE TO GO
HIGHER WITH POPS IF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS ORGANIZED.
HRRR AND 4KM WRF/NMM MODELS BRINGING MAIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN
INTO THE AREA AT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMES...THE HRRR NOT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE WRF/NMM AFTER 03Z MONDAY. USED THE 4KM WRF/NMM FOR
TIMING...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION. HIGH POPS THEN LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDER KEPT WITH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. COULD SEE LIGHTER RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
SHIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA FOR A TIME. QPF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 1.75 AND AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO 30 TO 33 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS GET NEAR
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY IN THE WEST...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MOST GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH THE RAIN AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL BE OVER FAR ERN NE EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND
SLOWLY MOVE EWD. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
OCCLUSION WILL PIVOT NWD THROUGH WI MON NT...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
MAKE IT TO THE IL/WI BORDER BY 12Z TUE. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN
BECOME A BROAD N-S TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SRN WI THROUGH IL.
THIS WILL BRING THE OCCLUDED FRONT NWD INTO CENTRAL WI...THUS
MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE BUT SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS WITH THE WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN AID
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER MI TUE NT BUT THAT WILL ALSO
QUICKLY OCCLUDE WITH THE LOW OVER WI OR MI FOR WED. THE LARGE
UPPER LOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM TNT THROUGH
MON NT WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARD. REISSUED THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WITH MANY RIVERS EXPECTED TO BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS WITH A FEW REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THE LARGE OCCLUDED LOW WILL TAKE UNTIL ABOUT SAT TO MOVE AWAY WITH
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC WAVE WITH THE POLAR JET
STREAM WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS WI FOR SUN. THUS THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WELL. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MADISON. COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES IF
ANY OF THESE GO OVER THE AIRPORT. FOR NOW...MAY PUT VICINITY SHOWERS
IN TAF AT MADISON.
MAIN ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...BY 03Z MONDAY AT MADISON AND 06Z MONDAY AT THE
EASTERN SITES. THE RAIN WILL THEN LINGER LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS EASTERLY 1500 FOOT WINDS APPROACHING 50 TO
55 KNOTS. STILL FEEL THAT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN UNTIL LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP
BACK UPWARDS BY EARLY EVENING...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A FEW TO 35 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH SOME 8 TO 12 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE. WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...FALLING BELOW 4 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...A POTENT
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS...AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO MANITOBA. IN-
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND RIDGE...PROFILER AND VWP DATA SHOWED A 30-
50 KT JET CORE AT 850MB FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. GOES
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTED VALUES OF 1-1.5 INCHES
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF IOWA SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA...WITH LOWER
VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF KANSAS INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE A DRY SLOT EXISTS. ALONG AND JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF
THIS GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL IOWA AND MISSOURI. SOME OF
THESE STORMS ARE INTENSE TOO...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE 750-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS PER RAP ANALYSIS. FARTHER NORTHEAST... SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED NORTH OF I-90. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LASTLY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH THAT AFOREMENTIONED STRONG 850MB JET CORE HAS LED TO
BRISK EAST WINDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 15-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25-45 MPH...STRONGEST WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES THAT THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE
TOO THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO
NEBRASKA AND IOWA BY 18Z MONDAY. THE QUESTION IS AMOUNT WHICH HAS
BIG IMPACTS ON POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING. THE AMOUNT HAS STRONG
TIES TO EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA IN WHICH THERE ARE THREE SCENARIOS...
1. THE CONVECTION TURNS INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL
LINE...ESSENTIALLY LIMITING HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SQUALL LINE FALLS APART OVER ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AS IT
RUNS INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
2. THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES EAST...RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TRAINING FACTOR COMES INTO PLAY...ALLOWING FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING.
3. THE CONVECTION WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES EAST...AND ESSENTIALLY MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS APART BY 04Z.
ALL THREE IDEAS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT IT IS SERIOUSLY WORTH
NOTING THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OUTRUNNING MOST MODELS. THE ONLY
MODEL THAT HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS WELL IS THE 00Z SPC WRF-NMM...
WHICH IS SCENARIO NUMBER 3 ABOVE. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIED TO LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THAT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF. STILL...THE
FORECAST MAY BE OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THAT 04-09Z TIME FRAME. WOULD THINK THAT PERISTENT 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WOULD AT LEAST CONTINUE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND NOT
COMPLETELY END...THUS THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. ALL THREE
SCENARIOS ABOVE REGENERATE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA
FROM THE APPROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR IMPACT ON RIVERS.
AFTER THE RAIN AND CONVECTION TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH IOWA. THE
MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EITHER
ALONG OR SOUTH OF US-20. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT HINGES
QUITE A BIT ON MORNING PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY TO
FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD CREEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY BE SEVERE. NOTE THAT A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAYETTE EAST TO GRANT COUNTIES.
LASTLY...REGARDING THE WIND ADVISORY...AS EXPECTED THE CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN MARGINAL. WILL KEEP IT GOING THROUGH 9 PM AS SUSTAINED
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN TO 30 MPH. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO MIDNIGHT SEEING
SOME LAV GUIDANCE HOLDING RST...TOB AND OLZ BETWEEN 25-30 KT TO
06Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
THE UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA ON MONDAY IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF FOCUS
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS UPPER LOW
WILL PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS COOL AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN CANADA...CAUSING TROUGHING TO PERSIST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS VERY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE
27.06Z/12Z GFS AND 27.00Z/12Z ECMWF.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
BAND OF SHOWERS TO FORM JUST NORTH OF THAT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
IOWA MONDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FORCING AND 800-900MB
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND...AFFECTING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 MONDAY
EVENING...SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 BY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY TAILING OFF TO THE
SOUTH. THEN WE GET INTO A COLD CONVEYOR BELT SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER
SHOWERS SHOULD POP UP ELSEWHERE UNDER THE UPPER LOW DUE TO MID LEVEL
COLD AIR. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER WITH THEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RIGHT NOW.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY MUCH
SITS IN A GRADUALLY WEAKENING COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS...WITH
PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT THAT COULD INCREASE COVERAGE.
GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION AROUND...HAVE USED COVERAGE
VERBIAGE. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND...
COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND 0C PLUS OR MINUS 2
C...EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGHING. SOME SIGNAL THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
MIGHT BE MORE POTENT...SO CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF A MODEL CONSENSUS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THE
AIR IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT ITS NOT FAR OFF. 850MB
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION
BELOW NORMAL...OR BETWEEN -4C AND 0C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AT 27.17Z...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND IOSLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE MESO
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE OUT THE
TAF SITES AROUND 27.1830Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
4 TO 8K FOOT LAYER. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 28.00Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME IFR/MVFR. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS
BAND IS HANDLED BY THE MESO MODELS. DUE TO THIS...PLAYED IT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.
WITH KLSE ONLY INTERMITTENTLY GUSTING...KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN FOR TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA ARE MOVING
FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. IN FACT...THE ONE MODEL THAT IS HANDLING
THE PRECIPITATION WELL SUGGESTS WE COULD HAVE A BREAK OF 6 HOURS
OF NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AFTER THEY PASS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY END UP INGESTING MORE OF THE
MOISTURE...LIMITING HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SCENARIO IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR TONIGHT. BETTER CONFIDENCE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
IN SUMMARY...BASED ON RFC FORECAST DATA...CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT A FLOOD WATCH ON THE TURKEY RIVER. SHOULD AROUND 1
INCH MATERIALIZE OVER THE BASIN THIS EVENING...THE WATCH WILL NEED
TO BE UPGRADED. ELSEWHERE...HAVE CONTINUED THE ESF. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS THAT HEAVIER QPF COULD FALL OVER WISCONSIN. SHOULD THIS
MATERIALIZE...MORE FLOOD WATCHES FOR AREA RIVERS MAY BE REQUIRED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTH OF THIS WARM
FRONT...MID-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND FGEN IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO REDEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS RAIN
BAND OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT COVERAGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THEN A POTENT LINE OF
STORMS IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI. RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHILE HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
ANTICIPATING THAT ARCING BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FGEN WILL HAVE WEAKENED AT THE START OF THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...BUT COULD STILL BE SOME
SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST. THEN ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK OR
REDUCED COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LINE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS PIVOTS AS IT MOVES NE INTO WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY LATE TONIGHT (THOUGH WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS INTENSE AS IT
STANDS CURRENTLY) DUE TO INCREASING 900-800MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FGEN. PRIOR TO THIS AREA OF RAIN ARRIVING...CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING. BUT IN GENERAL...WILL HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
STEADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY...THE ARCING BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
CONCERN THAT THE RAINS COULD BRING DOWN SOME BEEFY GUSTS FROM ALOFT
AS THE NAM IS DEPICTING WINDS UPWARDS OF 60 KTS ABOUT 2KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL MENTION HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
HWO. DESPITE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF A THUNDER CHANCE. BUT WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH
AND THE SLOWLY FORWARD PROGRESSION...DECENT RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH.
NORTHERN AND NE WISCONSIN WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER DUE TO THE DRY NE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT THAT AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN TOO. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
PCPN TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND STRONG E-NE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY NIGHT...REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE IN THE FCST THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...THE BEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR AS A STRONG S/W TROF
ROTATES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND AS
ANOTHER WAVE OR WEAK UPPER LOW AFFECTS NE/N WI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NC/FAR NE WI
LATE MON NGT/EARLY TUE...AND AGAIN LATE WED NGT/EARLY THU AND
LATE THU NGT/EARLY FRI. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN A LARGE HUDSON BAY
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MON
NGT. WITH ENE WINDS OF 35-50 KTS ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
SFC...STRONG GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS...MAINLY CENTRAL WI AND THE FOX VALLEY. THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF ARRIVES AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THANKS TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND PUSHES
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE BREAK IN
THE RAIN...EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND WIND SHEAR UP TO 55 KTS
WILL REMAIN PRESENT ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGES IN REGARDS TO THE GUSTY
EAST WINDS AND WIND SHEAR THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...AND 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES OVER THE SRN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE FCST AREA...ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NGT PERIOD. THE RESULTING
RUNOFF COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING...AS SEVERAL RIVERS
STILL REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE RIVER
FLOODING THREAT IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
BEGINNING TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NEW MEXICO WITH BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM KABR TO KDVN AND HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA. TRIED TO MAKE
SOME TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND THEN
SOME LARGER CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS /UP IN THE
WEST BY .3 TO .5 INCHES/...BUT MUCH OF TONIGHTS FORECAST LEFT AS
WAS.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP LOW WITH TROPOPAUSE FOLD
DOWN TO 700 MB OVER NEW MEXICO PER RAP TROP ANALYSIS. SURFACE
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SD/MN /1 MB PER HOUR/
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING WITH
25 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALREADY TONIGHT IN EASTERLY FLOW. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED IN NERN CO TO WRN NE AT 986 MB. SURFACE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO MOISTEN WITH 60F DEWPOINT LINE NOW INTO
NEB. NORTH OF THE W-E FRONT NEAR OMAHA-KSTL LINE...DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG DRIER EASTERLY FLOW /30S/...PRODUCING
SOME FIGHT TO RAIN SHOWERS TO HIT THE SURFACE /NOT THE TSRA
THOUGH AS HOURLY 0.25 INCH REPORTS ARE COMMON IN IA/.
GOES BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ HOURLY LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN
PLUME OF MOISTURE FOR INFLOW INTO TONIGHTS RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTH
THRU OK/AR AT THIS TIME...WITH 1.5 INCH VALUES. ALREADY PRESENT
FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWRD INTO IA...A PW AXIS EXISTS OF ABOUT 0.60
INCHES WHICH IS 125-150 PERCENT NORMAL. THIS IS MAINLY MOISTURE
ABOVE 700MB /PER 00Z RAOB AT KABR/ AND ALSO CO-LOCATED WITH
PRETTY STEEP 500-700MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...WHICH IS WHERE THE
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED TONIGHT WITH MOST LIGHTNING. LAPSE
RATE GRADIENT RUNS KABR-KMCW WITH MAX OVER NEB AT 06Z. THE LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE LAPSE RATE STEEPENING AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH PUSHES THE GRADIENT
AND DESTABILIZATION INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE VERY WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO WE
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THE LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS MOVE
NORTH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE 750-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LLJ CONVERGENCE. KDMX IS 60 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH PER RADAR AND KARX 88D SHOWED 40 KTS FROM THE SE...SO NICE
CONVERGENCE TO MOIST PLUME ALOFT.
LATEST RAP AND LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THIS SHOWER AND
SCT TSRA REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE. TSRA SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHRA. THE
HRRR AND RAP...AS WELL AS NAM AND GFS...HAVE THE IDEA OF A DECREASE
OR LULL IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS TRANSPORT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE BUILT THIS INTO THE RAIN
CHANCES...WITH AN INCREASE LATE TODAY AND EVENING AS MAIN MOIST
PLUME AND FORCING RETURNS WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY BOTTOMED THE RAIN CHANCES OUT TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS A START.
WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
ROBUST WITH WINDS TODAY. FROM CURRENT OBSERVATIONS GUSTING TO 35
MPH WEST OF MISS RIVER AND WITH AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TODAY...WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. KARX 88D HAS 45-50
KTS AT 500M ABOVE THE RADAR AT 08Z. IT COULD BE RATHER GUSTY EAST
OF THE RIVER TOO IN WI WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND SOME SHALLOW MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT RAIN. GUSTS IN THE
30S ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT WI AREAS MONDAY MORNING AND A BREAK
SEEMS TO OCCUR THEN BEFORE THE WARM FRONT AGAIN BECOMES ACTIVE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REALLY BANK ON INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA /DUH/ AND THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT LOCATION WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER OR
SOUTH...AND RUNNING W-E. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP LIFT AND CLOUDS/RAIN BY MID-DAY MONDAY WHICH
DOESNT NOT LEAVE MUCH TIME TO DESTABILIZE.
THE LATEST SPC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK NORTH
TO JUST SOUTH OF KDBQ. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR SOME STRONG
LOW-TOPPED STORMS. WIND SHEAR IS FAIR SO DYNAMIC LIFT WILL HAVE TO
ASSIST TO INVIGORATE THE STORMS...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT SEEMS LOW
BUT POSSIBLE...WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL. IF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA...SOME LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE...WHICH
WOULD MAKE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT
SEEMS CLOSE BUT NOT INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
LIMITED THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MORE RAIN AGAIN AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND ANOTHER
THEN FOLLOW BEHIND FOR TUESDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
ENHANCING THE DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE...SO ANOTHER INCH IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OVERALL...SREF RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 2-2.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL ACROSS THE AREA
/MEAN/ WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS SURPRISINGLY. THIS IS
OUR CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR IMPACTS
ON RIVERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOL AND SHOWERY WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP OCCLUDED LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AT 27.17Z...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND IOSLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE MESO
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS BAND WILL MOVE OUT THE
TAF SITES AROUND 27.1830Z AND THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
4 TO 8K FOOT LAYER. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 28.00Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME IFR/MVFR. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS
BAND IS HANDLED BY THE MESO MODELS. DUE TO THIS...PLAYED IT ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND KEPT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.
WITH KLSE ONLY INTERMITTENTLY GUSTING...KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS IS STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE. REVIEWING THE FORECASTS FOR THE CURRENT
72-HOUR RAINFALL AND ITS AFFECT ON RIVERS...THE RIVERS RESPOND BY
RISING TO/NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MANY SITES.
THE DAY SHIFT TODAY WILL REVIEW THE INFORMATION AND ARE
CONSIDERING...IN COOPERATION WITH THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...PLACING THE 72 HOUR RAIN INTO THE ACTUAL FORECASTS.
RECALL THE POSTED FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED ONLY USE 24 HOUR
FORECAST RAINFALL. IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
EVENT...IT WOULD BE BETTER TO HAVE THAT 72 HOUR TOTAL INCLUDED.
HOWEVER...USERS OF RIVER DATA CAN GO TO THE LINK BELOW TO SEE 72
HOUR RAINFALL RIVER HYDROGRAPHS AT ANY TIME /ALL LOWER CASE AND
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE/...
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/CRH/RFC/MAPGRAPHICALDISPLAY.PHP
WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AS THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO VISIT THIS TOPIC WITH THE 72 HOUR RAINFALL RIVER
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...AREAS OF SHOWERS/RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE WERE
BEING DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB LOW LEVEL
JET. HRRR MODEL TAKING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
A FEW SHOWERS STILL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MAIN ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING.
SO...ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD AFTER 18Z TO 19Z THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW BREAKS
POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE
UPPER 40S INLAND NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SHOWERS MAY AFFECT MADISON FOR THE NEXT HOUR
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OR DIMINISHING. MAY SEE A
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON OCCUR...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER.
MAIN ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...BY 02Z MONDAY AT MADISON AND 05Z MONDAY AT
THE EASTERN SITES. THE RAIN WILL THEN LINGER LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS EASTERLY 1500 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 50 KNOTS. FEEL SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A FEW TO 35 KNOTS.
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.
HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 10
FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOME 8 TO 12 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FALLING BELOW 4 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HRRR HANDLING LIGHT RAIN WITH FIRST PUSH OF MAINLY 700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AIDED BY ULD IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250 MB JET MAX
WELL. GETTING ISOLATED 0.01 AMOUNTS ON SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS...
WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS IN 10SM LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM 9K TO 10K
FT BASES WITH MOST OF THE REPORTS FROM NRN HALF OF THE CWA. BAND
WILL SHIFT OUT OF FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z WITH BETTER 700-
850 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE.
NEXT BAND OF SHOWERS MORE CLOSELY TIED WITH 850 MB WAA AND NEXT
ROUND OF 700-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ENTER THE SW CORNER OF THE
CWA BY 12Z AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH CWA...EXITING TO THE
NORTH. SOME CONVECTION IN IOWA ON NOSE OF STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS
WHICH WILL BRUSH PAST TO THE WEST. WILL LIMIT ISOLATED THUNDER TO
JUST THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR A
TIME FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TO REFLECT A POTENTIAL
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. COOL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH REACHING THE 50S AWAY
FROM THE LAKE...AND THAT IS IF THERE IS THE EXPECTED BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION.
GULF OPENS UP TO THE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1 INCH WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT. HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BETTER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/SYSTEM DYNAMICS. BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER. QPF TOTALS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 1/3 OF
AN INCH TO 1/2 INCH IN THE EAST...TO BETWEEN 3/4 INCH AND 1.3 INCHES
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE WPC HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE/5 TO 10 PCT/OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. RIVERS WILL BE QUICK TO RESPOND TO THIS RAIN AS
THEY ARE ALREADY HIGH FROM SNOW MELT AND PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SURROUNDING LOW-LANDS ALREADY SATURATED AND UNABLE
TO HOLD EXCESS WATER FROM ENTERING THE MAINSTEM CHANNELS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BROADEN AS IT MOVES
FROM NEBRASKA TO THE MN/WI/IA BORDER. THE 925MB WARM FRONT WILL BE
STATIONED ACROSS NORTHERN IL MONDAY MORNING...THEN CREEP NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL WI THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL WI THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
SOUTHWEST WI.
THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
TUESDAY. WAVES OF VORTICITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAD TO STRONG
UPWARD MOTION OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...SO DID NOT TRY
TO TIME THESE WAVES IN THE FORECAST WEATHER GRIDS QUITE YET BUT THE
TREND IS SHOWN IN THE QPF GRIDS. MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO RAIN
TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
INTO SOUTHERN WI MON EVENING AND EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THESE COULD
BECOME SURFACE BASED SINCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH
FAR SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SKY COVER AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM
FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS IS BETWEEN THE
75TH PERCENTILE AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND WPC YIELDS 1.5-2.00 INCHES FROM
MON THROUGH TUE. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THE
RISE IN RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL MEANDER NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE WEEK WHICH MEANS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S THERE AND LOWER 50S INLAND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HANGING OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
CLOUDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME IT RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
FIRST BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIFTING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SECOND BAND MOVING INTO SW WI. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AHEAD OF THE SECOND BAND. UPSTREAM
OBS CONFIRM PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EVEN WITH THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
PREVENT CIGS FROM DROPPING BELOW VFR LEVELS AND ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS BELOW 6SM. WILL HANDLE THESE LOWER
VSBY SHOWERS AS THEY FORM AND APPROACH TAF SITES. ANY THUNDER
LOOKS TO REMAIN SW OF TAF SITES TODAY. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL COME TONIGHT WITH STEADY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2.5 INCHES AND 3 INCHES...WITH HALF OR
MORE OF THAT TOTAL FALLING FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES AS EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS BY TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE INVERSION OVER THE STABLE
WATER FOR A FEW GUSTS TO HIT GALE FORCE LEVELS...BUT NOT FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO RAISE THE HEADLINE TO A GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
THE PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 6 TO 10 FEET BY
LATE TONIGHT AND HOLD THEM THERE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
LOWER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WAVES
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH THE EASING WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1127 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYING
FARTHER SOUTH THAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...AND THE LOW
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING FARTHER EASTWARD TOO. THIS MAKES IT MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. DRY WEDGE ALREADY WRAPPING NORTHWARDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL LIKELY CUT OFF THE ONLY MOISTURE SOURCE FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE LIKELY WRAPPED WESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THE FARTHER EAST TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL...NASTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SUMMIT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SNOW STARTS TO WIND DOWN IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THE TREND OF 06Z DATA POINTING TOWARDS LESS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. RADAR RETURNS HAVE NOT BEEN SHOWING THE ENHANCEMENT THAT
WAS EARLIER EXPECTED EITHER BY THIS POINT. SO...HAVE OPTED TO
DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NOT TO SAY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL NOT FALL TODAY...JUST IN LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
AN ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP AS LOW PRESSURE STACKS OVR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SATELLITE PIX SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING ALONG THE CO/NM STATELINE WITH THE LAST FEW FRAMES
BEGINNING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY TURN. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES
986MB LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA...NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA. HAVE
SEEN A BREAK PRECIP OVR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UP
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW FALLING OVR THE SRN LARAMIE RANGE.
HOWEVER...THIS TOO LOOKS SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS HAVE BEGAN TO
BLOSSOM OVR NRN COLORADO SINCE 0830Z. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN
STACKING THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NE/KS STATELINES
BY 00Z MONDAY. THIS TRACK HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SRN SOLUTIONS FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. TWO MAIN CONCERNS FROM THIS STORM TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SNOW LEVELS.
THE SRN TRACK OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED THE STRONGEST WINDS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. SO...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA/GOSHEN/PLATTE COUNTIES. FARTHER
SOUTH...THE GFS/NAM STILL HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. A RESULT OF THE NAM SHOWING VERY
LITTLE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COMPARATIVELY...THE GFS IS AS
IT USUALLY IS...THE BULLISH OUTLIER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DEPTH OF
THE MIXED LAYER AND AVAILABLE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP. MEANWHILE...
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM CHEYENNE TO
SIDNEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW OF THE STEEP SUN
ANGLE IS ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LARAMIE...KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY MARGINAL EVENT AT THIS
POINT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCOTTS BLUFF...BANNER AND MORRILL COUNTIES TO
A WIND ADVISORY.
PRECIP HAS BEEN FAIRLY SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
WILL CHANGE SHORTLY AS IMPRESSIVE POCKET OF QG LIFT MOVES FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WRN NEBRASKA. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE THRU THE MORNING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN
TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS MORNING AND WITH PRECIPITATION...THESE WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN HOW LATE IN THE SEASON IT
IS...PLUS THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...FEEL THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL JUSTIFIED FOR NOW. THIS MAY CHANGE
DEPENDING UPON HOW SNOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIFT INTO ERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW-LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN ALONG THE PINE RIDGE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL WOBBLE AROUND IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY MOVING VERY
LITTLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE STARING
AT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVR
PORTIONS OF THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN IS STILL SHOWN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE REGION ON MON
NIGHT AND CONTINUES WELL INTO THURS. THIS KEEPS 700MB TEMPS IN THE
-6C TO -10C RANGE THROUGH THURS SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING SOUTHWARD WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD 700-500MB MOISTURE TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS GOING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS IN THE STABLE COOL AIRMASS. THE OTHER MAIN
STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE GFS INDICATES NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM MON
NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. OF COURSE WINDS WILL COME DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...HOWEVER MAY
GET GUSTS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ON TUES
AFTN. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY THURS AND INTO FRI. WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS MODERATE ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT AS THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. NOT SEEING ANY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS ANYTIME IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SE WYOMING INTO THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. STRONG NW WINDS ALSO WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH EASING SOME THIS EVENING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN APR 27 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WETTING RAINS/SNOWS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE DISTRICT HOWEVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ118-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
105-110-112-114>117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ054-055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ019>021.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN