Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/25/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
507 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
310 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TODAY...BUT SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST TO THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST...BUT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 20+ DEGREES...THINKING THE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE A BIT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. AS SUCH
THINKING THE FIRST SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AFTER 5PM
CST. USED THE LOCAL ARW...RAP...AND HRRR TO CREATE THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINKING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 4 AM CST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. THE
BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKING AT MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING AND THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES FARTHER NORTH...ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO BEGINS OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES OVER IL THURSDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
HAS THE LOW PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER AND MADE THE NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.
RAIN AND SOME STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM SO KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE OTHER
HAND COULD BE IMPRESSIVE WITH TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING TO OUT OF
THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LOOKING AT A BREEZY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. THE AMPLE WAA WILL LEAD TO MAX
TEMPS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER TO THE UPPER 60S IF NOT
70 IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO ARND 30 MPH FRIDAY AND AM THINKING THERE COULD BE
SOME DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT.
THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT COLD SINCE MAX
TEMPS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE
MEMBERS FEATURE A BAND OF PRECIP FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR
NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA. PUT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP SINCE FORCING
LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND OF PRECIP ACTUALLY
FORMING. AS SUCH KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS KEEP A BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BUT THE COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE...AND THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN
THE OUTLYING AREAS.
GUIDANCE FEATURES PRECIP MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND OF PRECIP AS WELL...BUT
LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON ITS EXACT PATH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DOES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREED A BIT MORE ABOUT THE SURFACE LOWS
PATH...AND HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN IL TUESDAY.
IN TWO WORDS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS CHILLY AND WET. A BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN IL BRINGS THE LIFT FOR THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP EARLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT THEN MULTIPLE VORTICITY STREAMERS PASS THROUGH THE
REGION AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SUPPORT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIPS FAR SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS ALLOWING COOL AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH HIGHS
WILL VARY BETWEEN THE LOW 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH WITH A COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. LUCKILY OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM NNE TO ESE.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* WINDS VEERING TO SSE BY TOMORROW...THEN BECOMING VERY GUSTY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BMD/CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA MAY SKIRT THE IL/WI STATE
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS AND VCSH FOR RFD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20
KT RANGE OT OF THE SSE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINALS MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION/SPEED THURSDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD/CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED AND LOCKED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL
BE SCOOTED EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BOOKS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. DURING THURSDAY THIS
WILL PROVIDE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION SHOULD
BE PRESENT OVER THE LAKE...BUT STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD LEAD TO 25 TO POSSIBLE 30 KT GUSTS. AS A DEEP TROUGH
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET
LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS
EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
310 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TODAY...BUT SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST TO THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST...BUT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 20+ DEGREES...THINKING THE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE A BIT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. AS SUCH
THINKING THE FIRST SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AFTER 5PM
CST. USED THE LOCAL ARW...RAP...AND HRRR TO CREATE THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINKING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 4 AM CST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. THE
BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKING AT MIN
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING AND THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES FARTHER NORTH...ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO BEGINS OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES OVER IL THURSDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
HAS THE LOW PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER AND MADE THE NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.
RAIN AND SOME STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
SYSTEM SO KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE OTHER
HAND COULD BE IMPRESSIVE WITH TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING TO OUT OF
THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LOOKING AT A BREEZY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. THE AMPLE WAA WILL LEAD TO MAX
TEMPS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER TO THE UPPER 60S IF NOT
70 IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING TO ARND 30 MPH FRIDAY AND AM THINKING THERE COULD BE
SOME DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT.
THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT COLD SINCE MAX
TEMPS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE
MEMBERS FEATURE A BAND OF PRECIP FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR
NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA. PUT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP SINCE FORCING
LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND OF PRECIP ACTUALLY
FORMING. AS SUCH KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS KEEP A BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BUT THE COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE...AND THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN
THE OUTLYING AREAS.
GUIDANCE FEATURES PRECIP MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND OF PRECIP AS WELL...BUT
LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON ITS EXACT PATH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DOES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREED A BIT MORE ABOUT THE SURFACE LOWS
PATH...AND HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN IL TUESDAY.
IN TWO WORDS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS CHILLY AND WET. A BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN IL BRINGS THE LIFT FOR THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP EARLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT THEN MULTIPLE VORTICITY STREAMERS PASS THROUGH THE
REGION AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SUPPORT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIPS FAR SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS ALLOWING COOL AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH HIGHS
WILL VARY BETWEEN THE LOW 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH WITH A COOLING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. LUCKILY OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM NNE TO ESE.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* WINDS VEERING TO SSE BY TOMORROW...THEN BECOMING VERY GUSTY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA MAY SKIRT THE IL/WI STATE
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 FOR
THE CHICAGO TERMINALS AND VCSH FOR RFD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20
KT RANGE OT OF THE SSE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINALS MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION/SPEED THURSDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
219 PM CDT
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED AND LOCKED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL
BE SCOOTED EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BOOKS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. DURING THURSDAY THIS
WILL PROVIDE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION SHOULD
BE PRESENT OVER THE LAKE...BUT STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD LEAD TO 25 TO POSSIBLE 30 KT GUSTS. AS A DEEP TROUGH
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET
LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS
EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.
A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
surges south.
Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
Medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging transitioning
eastward across the Western High Plains Friday and into the Central
Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low
pressure will begin to push ashore into southern California Saturday
setting up a southwest flow across the Western High Plains by
Saturday afternoon. As a lack of significant low/mid level moisture
prevails during this time frame, dry conditions will persist through
Saturday afternoon. The potential for thunderstorms returns Saturday
evening as the upper level trough begins to lift northeast out of
the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. As the shortwave
approaches, a prevailing low level southeasterly flow will continue
to draw moisture northward into Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline.
Although where the dryline sets up is uncertain this far out, the
likelihood for thunderstorm development is good ahead of it as upper
level dynamic support becomes more favorable. Severe weather is
possible late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precip potential
shifts north and east Sunday as the upper level trough lifts
northeast across the Western High Plains increasing the potential
for dryslotting across southwest Kansas.
Temperatures will be above normal Friday as weak upper level ridging
moves eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains. A
south to southeasterly flow will return to western Kansas as lee
side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will draw
warmer air north into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from
around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C in far southwest
Kansas. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) Friday afternoon.
The warming trend continues into Saturday as enhanced warm air
advection raises H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest Kansas. Mid to upper 80s(F) are likely Saturday
afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible behind a dryline across
extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures will arrive
early next week as a cold front sweeps through western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 72 45 84 / 60 0 0 0
GCK 44 71 44 84 / 40 10 0 0
EHA 44 73 45 85 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 45 75 45 86 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 46 72 43 81 / 80 10 0 0
P28 53 75 46 85 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.
WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 2 AM CDT
/1 AM MDT/ Thursday FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ043-044-063-076-086.
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
144 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.
A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
surges south.
Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.
Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 72 45 82 / 60 0 0 0
GCK 44 73 44 82 / 50 10 0 0
EHA 44 71 45 83 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 45 74 45 84 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 46 73 43 79 / 80 10 0 0
P28 53 72 46 83 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-076>081-086>090.
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
08Z water vapor shows a longwave trough moving into the Rockies with
a mid level ridge axis over the Great Plains. At the surface, obs
shows ridging along the upper and middle MS river valley with a lee
trough over WY and CO deepening. Radar shows scattered shower
activity gradually expanding in coverage over the past couple hours.
The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide on the 305K surface, which
seems to line up with where the elevated showers are developing,
persisting into the early afternoon. With the HRRR, RAP and NAM all
showing this scattered activity going on through the morning, have
increased pops and will include coverage wording in the forecast.
Forecast soundings show little if any instability for this activity
to work with so would anticipate thunder to remain relatively
isolated this morning. Meanwhile the models continue to show some
surface based instability developing this afternoon across north
central KS ahead of a Pacific cold front. As the upper shortwave
moves out across the plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary. This activity is expected to quickly evolve
into a linear system and move across the forecast area overnight.
Initially there may be some hail and damaging wind threat as the
line begins moving into north central KS. And there remains a large
amount of low level bulk shear progged by the NAM. But the NAM also
develops quite a lot of CIN suggesting the line of storms may be
driven more by the front and not necessarily persisting on
instability ahead of the boundary. So the expectation is that storm
intensity will diminish as the storms move into eastern KS. In any
case, good forcing from the shortwave and steep mid level lapse
rates should be good enough for much of not all of the forecast to
see rain overnight and will maintain categorical POPs tonight.
Do not plan to change the wind advisory issued earlier. The latest
RAP continues to show a strengthening pressure gradient over south
central NEB and north central KS that may be strong enough for
sustained winds of 30 mph for a brief period. Otherwise the NAM and
GFS are more marginal with the pressure gradient and do not produce
as strong of winds. For highs today, am a little concerned the
scattered precip and cloud cover could hold temps down especially
over northeast KS where this is likely to hang on longer into the
afternoon. So tweaked temps down a degree or two over northeast
zones. Although there may still be enough mixing and insolation
across north central KS for highs to reach around 80. With rain and
some cold air advection behind the front tonight, trended min temps
Thursday morning down towards the MOS consensus of lower 50s in
north central KS to the mid and upper 50s across eastern KS. If the
front moves through a little quicker, lows in the east are likely to
be to warm.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
Cold front will continue to move southeastward and out of the far
southeast corner by mid morning on Thursday as the upper trough axis
swings through CWA. Will therefore continue a steady decline in
precipitation chances over the eastern CWA through the morning hours
and a dry afternoon forecast. Although the day may start out wet and
cloudy early...decreasing clouds and backing low level winds will aid in
temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s for highs. Winds
back around to light southwesterly overnight with lows in the 40s
before increasing through the day Friday with mostly sunny skies.
Have therefore edged high temperatures upwards slightly to around 80
in many areas.
Elevated moisture return and weak instability slowly increase late
Friday night/early Saturday morning across the southern CWA and have
maintained low chances for thunderstorms. A better chance for
thunderstorms will exist with the deeper moisture and instability
later in the day into early Sunday as the next strong shortwave
trough digs into the desert southwest and ejects out into the
central high plains. Thunderstorms may remain elevated until
an initial capping inversion is overcome for surface based storms to
develop. Either way...strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday into Sunday ahead of an expected dry slot as the
system rotates out into the plains and occludes. It will then slow
and shift east and southeastward into the MS river valley with a
lingering chance for showers in its wake as much cooler air filters
into the area from the north for Monday and especially Tuesday.
Highs in the 70s on Saturday will lower into the low to mid 60s for
Monday...then the 50s for Tuesday. Lows by Wednesday morning could
fall into the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
The scattered showers and isolated thunder has remained north of
the taf sites although kept VCSH for the showers moving eastward
from central KS. VFR should prevail through most of the afternoon
and early evening hours. Storms will develop into a line over
north central KS and move eastward this evening. There is some
uncertainty with the timing of the thunderstorms as to when to
affect the taf sites. This timing will likely need adjustments
later today. Storms could cause brief IFR conditions with heavier
rainfall. Additional rain showers will develop along and behind a
cold front passing through the area. Widespread showers should exit
tomorrow morning with improving ceilings towards the end of the
period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
08Z water vapor shows a longwave trough moving into the Rockies with
a mid level ridge axis over the Great Plains. At the surface, obs
shows ridging along the upper and middle MS river valley with a lee
trough over WY and CO deepening. Radar shows scattered shower
activity gradually expanding in coverage over the past couple hours.
The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide on the 305K surface, which
seems to line up with where the elevated showers are developing,
persisting into the early afternoon. With the HRRR, RAP and NAM all
showing this scattered activity going on through the morning, have
increased pops and will include coverage wording in the forecast.
Forecast soundings show little if any instability for this activity
to work with so would anticipate thunder to remain relatively
isolated this morning. Meanwhile the models continue to show some
surface based instability developing this afternoon across north
central KS ahead of a Pacific cold front. As the upper shortwave
moves out across the plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary. This activity is expected to quickly evolve
into a linear system and move across the forecast area overnight.
Initially there may be some hail and damaging wind threat as the
line begins moving into north central KS. And there remains a large
amount of low level bulk shear progged by the NAM. But the NAM also
develops quite a lot of CIN suggesting the line of storms may be
driven more by the front and not necessarily persisting on
instability ahead of the boundary. So the expectation is that storm
intensity will diminish as the storms move into eastern KS. In any
case, good forcing from the shortwave and steep mid level lapse
rates should be good enough for much of not all of the forecast to
see rain overnight and will maintain categorical POPs tonight.
Do not plan to change the wind advisory issued earlier. The latest
RAP continues to show a strengthening pressure gradient over south
central NEB and north central KS that may be strong enough for
sustained winds of 30 mph for a brief period. Otherwise the NAM and
GFS are more marginal with the pressure gradient and do not produce
as strong of winds. For highs today, am a little concerned the
scattered precip and cloud cover could hold temps down especially
over northeast KS where this is likely to hang on longer into the
afternoon. So tweaked temps down a degree or two over northeast
zones. Although there may still be enough mixing and insolation
across north central KS for highs to reach around 80. With rain and
some cold air advection behind the front tonight, trended min temps
Thursday morning down towards the MOS consensus of lower 50s in
north central KS to the mid and upper 50s across eastern KS. If the
front moves through a little quicker, lows in the east are likely to
be to warm.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
Cold front will continue to move southeastward and out of the far
southeast corner by mid morning on Thursday as the upper trough axis
swings through CWA. Will therefore continue a steady decline in
precipitation chances over the eastern CWA through the morning hours
and a dry afternoon forecast. Although the day may start out wet and
cloudy early...decreasing clouds and backing low level winds will aid in
temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s for highs. Winds
back around to light southwesterly overnight with lows in the 40s
before increasing through the day Friday with mostly sunny skies.
Have therefore edged high temperatures upwards slightly to around 80
in many areas.
Elevated moisture return and weak instability slowly increase late
Friday night/early Saturday morning across the southern CWA and have
maintained low chances for thunderstorms. A better chance for
thunderstorms will exist with the deeper moisture and instability
later in the day into early Sunday as the next strong shortwave
trough digs into the desert southwest and ejects out into the
central high plains. Thunderstorms may remain elevated until
an initial capping inversion is overcome for surface based storms to
develop. Either way...strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday into Sunday ahead of an expected dry slot as the
system rotates out into the plains and occludes. It will then slow
and shift east and southeastward into the MS river valley with a
lingering chance for showers in its wake as much cooler air filters
into the area from the north for Monday and especially Tuesday.
Highs in the 70s on Saturday will lower into the low to mid 60s for
Monday...then the 50s for Tuesday. Lows by Wednesday morning could
fall into the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide within the warm air
advection pattern continuing into the early afternoon. Regional
radars are hinting at more elevated showers starting to form over
southwest KS. Therefore will carry -SHRA until 19Z when the
moisture advection and isentropic lift diminish. Low level
moisture advection remains rather modest so even with the -SHRA
expect VFR conditions to prevail until the front moves through
with TSRA. This looks to occur at the terminals after 06Z based on
the RAP and NAM forecasts. Have MVFR CIGS and VSBY as the TSRA
pass through. Confidence in timing the ending and beginning of
precip is average and may need to be adjusted plus or minus a hour
or so. Otherwise expect increasing south and southeasterly winds
through the morning as the pressure gradient strengthens.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
343 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
08Z water vapor shows a longwave trough moving into the Rockies with
a mid level ridge axis over the Great Plains. At the surface, obs
shows ridging along the upper and middle MS river valley with a lee
trough over WY and CO deepening. Radar shows scattered shower
activity gradually expanding in coverage over the past couple hours.
The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide on the 305K surface, which
seems to line up with where the elevated showers are developing,
persisting into the early afternoon. With the HRRR, RAP and NAM all
showing this scattered activity going on through the morning, have
increased pops and will include coverage wording in the forecast.
Forecast soundings show little if any instability for this activity
to work with so would anticipate thunder to remain relatively
isolated this morning. Meanwhile the models continue to show some
surface based instability developing this afternoon across north
central KS ahead of a Pacific cold front. As the upper shortwave
moves out across the plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary. This activity is expected to quickly evolve
into a linear system and move across the forecast area overnight.
Initially there may be some hail and damaging wind threat as the
line begins moving into north central KS. And there remains a large
amount of low level bulk shear progged by the NAM. But the NAM also
develops quite a lot of CIN suggesting the line of storms may be
driven more by the front and not necessarily persisting on
instability ahead of the boundary. So the expectation is that storm
intensity will diminish as the storms move into eastern KS. In any
case, good forcing from the shortwave and steep mid level lapse
rates should be good enough for much of not all of the forecast to
see rain overnight and will maintain categorical POPs tonight.
Do not plan to change the wind advisory issued earlier. The latest
RAP continues to show a strengthening pressure gradient over south
central NEB and north central KS that may be strong enough for
sustained winds of 30 mph for a brief period. Otherwise the NAM and
GFS are more marginal with the pressure gradient and do not produce
as strong of winds. For highs today, am a little concerned the
scattered precip and cloud cover could hold temps down especially
over northeast KS where this is likely to hang on longer into the
afternoon. So tweaked temps down a degree or two over northeast
zones. Although there may still be enough mixing and insolation
across north central KS for highs to reach around 80. With rain and
some cold air advection behind the front tonight, trended min temps
Thursday morning down towards the MOS consensus of lower 50s in
north central KS to the mid and upper 50s across eastern KS. If the
front moves through a little quicker, lows in the east are likely to
be to warm.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
Cold front will continue to move southeastward and out of the far
southeast corner by mid morning on Thursday as the upper trough axis
swings through cwa. Will therefore continue a steady decline in
precipitation chances over the eastern cwa through the morning hours
and a dry afternoon fcst. Although the day may start out wet and
cloudy early...decreasing clouds and backing llvl winds will aid in
temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s for highs. Winds
back around to light southwesterly overnight with lows in the 40s
before increasing through the day Friday with mostly sunny skies.
Have therefore edged high temperatures upwards slightly to around 80
in many areas.
Elevated moisture return and weak instability slowly increase late
Friday night/early Saturday morning across the southern cwa and have
maintained low chances for thunderstorms. A better chance for
thunderstorms will exist with the deeper moisture and instability
later in the day into early Sunday as the next strong shortwave
trough digs into the desert southwest and ejects out into the
central high plains. Thunderstorms may remain elevated until
an initial capping inversion is overcome for surface based storms to
develop. Either way...strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday into Sunday ahead of an expected dry slot as the
system rotates out into the plains and occludes. It will then slow
and shift east and southeastward into the MS river valley with a
lingering chance for showers in its wake as much cooler air filters
into the area from the north for Monday and especially Tuesday.
Highs in the 70s on Saturday will lower into the low to mid 60s for
Monday...then the 50s for Tuesday. Lows by Wednesday morning could
fall into the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
With area of showers making its way through western Kansas and
recent new development ahead of it, will keep VCSH nearly as
before. Some suggestions of a least light continued activity
through much of the day and there are weak returns on upstream,
but coverage and impacts look too low for inclusion. More robust
convection will likely hold off until after this forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
928 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Updated forecast to account for precipitation trends. A large area
of showers and thunderstorms continues to spread across the forecast
area this evening. The entire region should have experienced a good
soaking rain by midnight. Also kept higher rain chances over the
northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area late this evening through the early
pre-dawn hours Friday to account for greater elevated instability
associated with the passing mid level trough. With the low levels
slow to moisten up and deep layer shear lacking, severe storms have
not materialized. The threat has all but ended at this time, though
an isolated strong storm still cannot be completely discounted.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.
The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.
Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.
The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.
The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.
As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.
Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.
From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 12-13Z...
otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 00-03Z and
between 03-07Z at KEVV/KOWB. Southerly winds at 10-12 knots gusting
up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest during the night
and maintain those speeds, then around to the northwest between
11-13Z and decrease to aob 15 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
952 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
Compact upper vorticity maximum is now transversing Missouri this
evening. In advance of the wave, arcing area of convection now is
passing through the Ohio River/Mississippi River confluence region
and into western KY. Based on the latest radar imagery, this
activity should be approaching our western counties by 04Z and into
the I-65 corridor by 06Z...reaching the I-75 corridor by 09-10Z.
Overall, the convection has been steadily weakening as the
convection has been running into a more stable and less moist
environment. Nonetheless, showers and scattered thunderstorms will
impact most areas overnight. Once the arc of convection passes,
we`ll see a brief pause in the rainfall then more scattered showers
are likely as the actual vorticity maximum passes overhead, just
before sunrise. Severe weather threat looks very low at this time
as the dynamics and instability are not all that impressive. Brief
heavy rains and some gusty winds will be possible as the storms move
through the region overnight.
The current forecast has this well covered quite well. Only some
minor adjustments to precipitation timing was made with this
evening`s update.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
In the near term, afternoon visible satellite imagery shows high
level cirrus clouds progressing northeast across central KY and
southern IN, in advance of a shortwave to our west, with surface
temperatures warming steadily to near 70 east and lower and mid 70s
west. Temperatures will continue to rise a couple/few more degrees
through late afternoon before falling back this evening.
Pronounced shortwave over KS/OK at this time will move steadily east
tonight accompanied by an increase in low-level moisture and
southerly winds, which will effectively limit/end our evening fall
in surface temperatures overnight. Surface winds should become gusty
overnight. Currently, this system is causing widespread convective
development from western MO to eastern OK and AR. Models are in good
agreement bringing these storms in a band into central KY and
southern IN late this evening and overnight. The 15z HRRR and 12z
in-house mesoscale models bring the leading edge of the convection
to our western forecast area border around 04 UTC.
Looking at model soundings, boundary layer cools this evening but
steep lapse rates and elevated instability remain if lifting a
parcel from about 900-950 mb. This will support continuation of
convection as axis of precipitation moves across our area,
especially western part of forecast area. With increasing winds at
925 and 850 mb, there is a chance that greater momentum air could
mix down to surface and create a few strong wind gusts with the
strongest cells (again, more likely in western sections), but
presence of weak-to-moderate nocturnal boundary layer inversion
should keep strongest winds aloft, unable to penetrate to surface.
After this band passes, there could be a brief lull in precip, but
models bring another area of moisture through from early to mid
morning (from west to east) associated with the actual mid-level
trough axis and surface front. As a result, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected during that time, with models
again indicating presence of some instability.
Front passes through the area first half of Friday. Winds behind the
boundary will become quite gusty from the west-northwest around 30
mph. Morning clouds and lingering showers will move off to the east
followed quickly by a clearing trend. Highs Friday afternoon should
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, depending on how rapdily skies
clear. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows again down in the
40s in most locations.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
Saturday - Sunday...
Heights will rise through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge
axis approaches and then slides through. Meanwhile, a cold front
will sag southward across southern Ohio and into central IN,
stalling by Saturday evening as it becomes parallel to the upper
level flow. Technically, it would be a back door cold front if it
were to make progress through the area, but it looks to stall just
to our north. Either way, the boundary will be moisture starved and
we should stay on the warm side of it. This will lead to a dry and
warm weekend. Expect highs on Saturday in the upper 70s north to low
80s south. Lows Saturday night should dip into the lower 50s. Should
start to see an gradual increase in mid and upper level clouds on
Sunday as the ridge axis starts to slide east, however 1000-850
thicknesses and 850 mb temps will support a 2-3 degree increase from
Saturday. Therefore, have gone with mostly lower 80s on Sunday. A
few Bluegrass or southern IN counties may stay confined to upper 70s.
Will continue to leave the slightest of chances for a shower or
storm in our far western tier or two of counties late Sunday
afternoon, however bulk of precip will not arrive until Sunday night
onward.
Sunday Night - Tuesday...
By Sunday night, blocking upper ridge axis will be off to our east
with an impressive closed upper low over the central Plains.
Southwesterly flow through a deep layer will overspread the Ohio
Valley, including a 40 knot low level jet nosing in. The
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be just off to our northeast
with expansive mid level deformation aloft. By dawn on Monday,
expect scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms mainly along
and west of I-65. These likely shower and t-storm chances will then
encompass the entire CWA on Monday. Tough to tell how well we
destabilize in this environment, but it appears that a stronger to
possibly severe storm threat will be conditional upon
destabilization, especially along and west of I-65.
Another threat of stronger to severe storms may move in later Monday
night into early Tuesday as the exit region of another impulse
rotating around the upper low ejects out of the southern Plains.
Again, strength of storms would be conditional upon destabilization.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms could then plague the area
again later Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Will continue to monitor threat for stronger storms to start the new
work week, but will also keep an eye on the threat for periods of
heavy rain and flooding. With repeated rounds of t-storms possible
and PWATs jumping up around 2 std deviations above normal for this
time of year, flooding could become a concern. Tough to judge
temperatures during this time, solid reading in the 70s seem
reasonable each day on the warm side of the boundary and warm
advective flow. Obviously, convection will be the deciding factor.
Lows will be mild during this time, at least in the low 60s in most
spots.
Tuesday Night - Thursday...
We begin to transition to a cooler period by the middle and end of
the week as the wobbling upper low and its associated surface
reflection slide into the Midwest. Precipitation chances look to
become more scattered in nature during this time with thunder
chances becoming less likely. These days will likely not be
wash-outs, but will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler. Look
for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s and lows in the low and
mid 40s by Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the early part of the evening hours
and then we should see things deteriorate after 25/04Z. Current
data suggests that activity over Missouri and Arkansas will
continue to push eastward late tonight and early Friday morning. The
storms will be running into a drier and somewhat more stable airmass
late tonight. Nonetheless, expect conditions to drop to MVFR late
tonight at the terminals as the convection spreads through the
region. At this time, we expect the best window of convection to
affect KBWG between 25/04-08Z, KSDF between 25/06-09Z and KLEX
between 25/07-11Z. After the convective line swings through, we`ll
see winds shift around to the southwest with scattered showers
continuing through the pre-dawn and early morning hours on Friday.
Winds look to shift to the west/west-northwest after 25/15Z at
KBWG/KSDF and after 25/17Z at KLEX. Winds will be gusty Friday
afternoon with sustained speeds of 12-15kt and gusts up to 25kts at
times.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
621 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.
The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.
Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.
The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.
The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.
As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.
Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.
From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 12-13Z
...otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between
00-03Z and between 03-07Z at KEVV/KOWB. Southerly winds at 10-12
knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest
during the night and maintain those speeds, then around to the
northwest between 11-13Z and decrease to aob 15 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
In the near term, afternoon visible satellite imagery shows high
level cirrus clouds progressing northeast across central KY and
southern IN, in advance of a shortwave to our west, with surface
temperatures warming steadily to near 70 east and lower and mid 70s
west. Temperatures will continue to rise a couple/few more degrees
through late afternoon before falling back this evening.
Pronounced shortwave over KS/OK at this time will move steadily east
tonight accompanied by an increase in low-level moisture and
southerly winds, which will effectively limit/end our evening fall
in surface temperatures overnight. Surface winds should become gusty
overnight. Currently, this system is causing widespread convective
development from western MO to eastern OK and AR. Models are in good
agreement bringing these storms in a band into central KY and
southern IN late this evening and overnight. The 15z HRRR and 12z
in-house mesoscale models bring the leading edge of the convection
to our western forecast area border around 04 UTC.
Looking at model soundings, boundary layer cools this evening but
steep lapse rates and elevated instability remain if lifting a
parcel from about 900-950 mb. This will support continuation of
convection as axis of precipitation moves across our area,
especially western part of forecast area. With increasing winds at
925 and 850 mb, there is a chance that greater momentum air could
mix down to surface and create a few strong wind gusts with the
strongest cells (again, more likely in western sections), but
presence of weak-to-moderate nocturnal boundary layer inversion
should keep strongest winds aloft, unable to penetrate to surface.
After this band passes, there could be a brief lull in precip, but
models bring another area of moisture through from early to mid
morning (from west to east) associated with the actual mid-level
trough axis and surface front. As a result, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected during that time, with models
again indicating presence of some instability.
Front passes through the area first half of Friday. Winds behind the
boundary will become quite gusty from the west-northwest around 30
mph. Morning clouds and lingering showers will move off to the east
followed quickly by a clearing trend. Highs Friday afternoon should
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, depending on how rapdily skies
clear. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows again down in the
40s in most locations.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
Saturday - Sunday...
Heights will rise through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge
axis approaches and then slides through. Meanwhile, a cold front
will sag southward across southern Ohio and into central IN,
stalling by Saturday evening as it becomes parallel to the upper
level flow. Technically, it would be a back door cold front if it
were to make progress through the area, but it looks to stall just
to our north. Either way, the boundary will be moisture starved and
we should stay on the warm side of it. This will lead to a dry and
warm weekend. Expect highs on Saturday in the upper 70s north to low
80s south. Lows Saturday night should dip into the lower 50s. Should
start to see an gradual increase in mid and upper level clouds on
Sunday as the ridge axis starts to slide east, however 1000-850
thicknesses and 850 mb temps will support a 2-3 degree increase from
Saturday. Therefore, have gone with mostly lower 80s on Sunday. A
few Bluegrass or southern IN counties may stay confined to upper 70s.
Will continue to leave the slightest of chances for a shower or
storm in our far western tier or two of counties late Sunday
afternoon, however bulk of precip will not arrive until Sunday night
onward.
Sunday Night - Tuesday...
By Sunday night, blocking upper ridge axis will be off to our east
with an impressive closed upper low over the central Plains.
Southwesterly flow through a deep layer will overspread the Ohio
Valley, including a 40 knot low level jet nosing in. The
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be just off to our northeast
with expansive mid level deformation aloft. By dawn on Monday,
expect scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms mainly along
and west of I-65. These likely shower and t-storm chances will then
encompass the entire CWA on Monday. Tough to tell how well we
destabilize in this environment, but it appears that a stronger to
possibly severe storm threat will be conditional upon
destabilization, especially along and west of I-65.
Another threat of stronger to severe storms may move in later Monday
night into early Tuesday as the exit region of another impulse
rotating around the upper low ejects out of the southern Plains.
Again, strength of storms would be conditional upon destabilization.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms could then plague the area
again later Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Will continue to monitor threat for stronger storms to start the new
work week, but will also keep an eye on the threat for periods of
heavy rain and flooding. With repeated rounds of t-storms possible
and PWATs jumping up around 2 std deviations above normal for this
time of year, flooding could become a concern. Tough to judge
temperatures during this time, solid reading in the 70s seem
reasonable each day on the warm side of the boundary and warm
advective flow. Obviously, convection will be the deciding factor.
Lows will be mild during this time, at least in the low 60s in most
spots.
Tuesday Night - Thursday...
We begin to transition to a cooler period by the middle and end of
the week as the wobbling upper low and its associated surface
reflection slide into the Midwest. Precipitation chances look to
become more scattered in nature during this time with thunder
chances becoming less likely. These days will likely not be
wash-outs, but will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler. Look
for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s and lows in the low and
mid 40s by Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the early part of the evening hours
and then we should see things deteriorate after 25/04Z. Current
data suggests that activity over Missouri and Arkansas will
continue to push eastward late tonight and early Friday morning. The
storms will be running into a drier and somewhat more stable airmass
late tonight. Nonetheless, expect conditions to drop to MVFR late
tonight at the terminals as the convection spreads through the
region. At this time, we expect the best window of convection to
affect KBWG between 25/04-08Z, KSDF between 25/06-09Z and KLEX
between 25/07-11Z. After the convective line swings through, we`ll
see winds shift around to the southwest with scattered showers
continuing through the pre-dawn and early morning hours on Friday.
Winds look to shift to the west/west-northwest after 25/15Z at
KBWG/KSDF and after 25/17Z at KLEX. Winds will be gusty Friday
afternoon with sustained speeds of 12-15kt and gusts up to 25kts at
times.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1023 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WHILE A
COLD FRONT STETCHES FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW OVER MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. STRONG
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO 800 MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING. ACCORDINGLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH FOR MUCH OF TDA.
CAA PATTERN HAS PRODUCED STRATOCU AS MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FIELD. UPDATED
SKY COVER FCST GRIDS USING THE RH FIELD AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING
LAYER FROM THE RAP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EVOLUTION OF STRATOCU TDA.
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE CLOUDS ERODE FROM S TO N INTO THE
AFTN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TO THE UPPER 50S...WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON THE LONGEST.
OTHERWISE...OFFICIAL MAX TEMP FCST IN LOW TO MID 60S FALLS ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY TNGT...
WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...
SINCE THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND
SHEN VLY WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.
THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY TDA FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS. NW WINDS HAVE QUICKLY PICKED UP THIS MRNG WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT 13Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE TO CONTINUE THRU AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVE. BKN STRATOCU FIELD BETWEEN 4-5 KFT THIS MRNG WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CHO BEFORE ERODING FROM S TO N
THIS AFTN.NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TNGT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS AT DCA-BWI-MTN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
20-30 KT WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TDA. MIXING WILL
DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTN BUT MODELS SHOW THE WIND FIELD
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXING LAYER WEAKENING A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE GALE WARNING A FEW HRS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HIGH END
SCA WINDS FAVORED. SCA CONTINUES TNGT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TDA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. MRNG UPDATE TO THE
FCST KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW PREV FCST
BUT DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
TO THE SFC. PAST STUDIES HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SFC DEWPOINTS DURING THE
PEAK HEATINGS HRS IN SITUATIONS LIKE TDA. 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING
SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA. FUEL MOISTURE OBS YDA WERE BETWEEN
5-8 PERCENT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
FUEL MOISTURE.
WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG.
HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CURVING NW AND OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST. VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PER REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS. END RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FANNING E INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WRN
CONUS TROF. DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WHERE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CHILL. TEMPS
ARE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S AWAY FROM MARINE COOLING. ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. DEEP MIXING INTO THE
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO CAUSED SFC DWPTS TO FALL AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SPREADS
E AHEAD OF THE TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL ANTECEDANT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (NOTE THE VERY DRY AIR SAMPLED ON
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS)...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INITIAL NNW-SSE ORIENTED PCPN
BAND CURRENTLY OVER MN TO SEE HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT BATTLES THE DRY
AIR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL UTILIZE MOSTLY SCHC POPS OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH CHC NEAR KIWD. PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN...BUT WITH DRY AIR/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMITED DEPTH OF
ABOVE 0C WETBULB TEMPS...THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW.
AT 12Z THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THE TROF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH
SRN SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THRU THE DAY...THE NRN WAVE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS A LITTLE S OF E WHILE THE SRN PLAINS WAVE TRACKS
SLIGHTLY N OF E. AS THE TROF SHARPENS UP/DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING
E...RIBBON OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER
LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AVBL (MIXING RATIOS 4-5G/KG ADVECTING INTO UPPER MI AROUND
750MB)...DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. FOR MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THERMAL PROFILES ON THE BORDER FOR RAIN/SNOW...AND THAT HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMTH IS A PROBLEM...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN RATES WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM DICKINSON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...NEAR SFC E
TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA...AIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW AN
EXPANSION OF SNOW PTYPE AS HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS NE THU AFTN ALONG
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 33/34F. DETERMINING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS A
CHALLENGE. SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL ON ROADWAYS UNLESS
HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. ON GROUND SURFACES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 3 POSSIBLE FROM WRN DICKINSON
INTO GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
WET SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE SYSTEM...AS THAT DICTATES THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN IS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TROUGH IS FORECAST ARRIVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC TROUGH IS
IN BTWN THE TWO LOWS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH SFC LOW IS STRONGER.
TREND WAS EMERGING IN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET
THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT H85/H7/H5 WOULD BE
THE STRONGER SECTION AND THAT TROUGH WOULD REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHICH RESULTED IN LESS PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY
INTO FRIDAY. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF CLOSED OFF
IDEA WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON FRIDAY... SHOWING CLOSED OFF H5 LOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR AT
18Z ON FRIDAY WITH CLOSED OFF H7/H85 AND SFC LOWS OVER CNTRL CWA AT
THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP LINGERING
OVER NW CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE SAME THING...BUT IS NOW JOINED BY GFS AND GEM-NH...
REPRESENTING A SHIFT BACK TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING WITH THE 12Z
RUN ON TUESDAY. SWITCH SHOWS UP IN GFS RUN TOTAL QPF WITH AREAS OF
WESTERN CWA NOW SEEING WELL OVER AN INCH WHERAS PAST RUNS WERE MORE
IN THE 0.50-1.00 RANGE. OVERALL THE THEME OFFERED UP BY THE 12Z
MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR A LONGER DURATION IS
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
DIVING INTO THE SPECIFICS...INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING IS SUPPORTED IN UPPER LEVELS BY H85-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H3-H25 DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AS JET
STREAK LIFTS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING IS DUE MAINLY TO
H925-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH
290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO SYSTEM MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6G/KG ON THE 290K SFC /H8-H75/ AND AT LEAST 4G/KG
ON THE 300K SFC /NEAR H7/. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COME VIA
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
MAINLY THE H85 LOW. NAM WOULD SUGGEST TROWAL PRECIP ENHANCEMENT
COULD IMPACT KEWEENAW BASED ON THE THETA-E AT THE H65-H6 LAYER. FOR
THE FORECAST...WILL TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM...BUT KEEP
HEAVIER QPF ANCHORED IN THE 00Z-06Z FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN H7 MIXING
RATIOS TOWARD 4G/KG ARE PRESENT. AFTER THAT WILL HEAD TOWARD MORE
TONED DOWN QPF FM THE UKMET/ECMWF AND SOMEWHAT THE NAM /SUGGESTING
AROUND 0.30 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME
PERIOD WITHIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...VERSUS THE WETTER GFS AND
GEM-NH.
PTYPE AND ULTIMATELY SNOW AMOUNTS...REMAINS AN ISSUE. HOWEVER TREND
MAY BE SIGNALING MOSTLY SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF IMT TO MQT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FM NAM ARE
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR 0C THROUGH H8 AT IMT AND IWD...BUT ARE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH IN THIS LAYER AT CMX AND MQT FOR SNOW.
FARTHER EAST...AT MNM/ESC/P53 THE WARM LAYER IS TO H95/1000FT AGL OR
HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD LOWER ENOUGH BLO 1000FT AGL
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A TURNOVER TO ONLY
SNOW BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. AT ERY...COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW LIKELY DEPENDING LARGELY ON SFC TEMPS. THOUGH THE
INSOLATION AND BLYR WARMING MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW
INITIALLY LATER THURSDAY AFTN WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SNOW RATES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT
IN ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING. SREF OUTPUT BASED ON EXPECTED MODEL
SKIN TEMPS INDICATES THAT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START ACCUMLATING ON ROADS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL RATES PUSH OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR.
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CNTRL CWA TO EXCEED
6 INCHES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z
MODELS AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE
GOING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
EAST WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR SEEING ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR A WARNING FOR AREAS
FROM IRON TO MARQUETTE COUNTIES /CURRENTLY HAVE 4-7 INCHES FALLING
MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY/...AND POSSIBLY
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WILL KEEP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS ATTM. MID SHIFT CAN ASSESS AGAIN AND
DETERMINE WHETHER A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
SLOWER/MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY
EVENING BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H8 WITH TEMPS WITHIN H85
THERMAL TROUGH TOWARD -10C TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE BIGGER FACTOR. SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...BUT ENE-NE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH
KEEPS THE COOL AIR LOCKED IN. MIXING TO H9 ALONG THE BORDER SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S...15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LOT OF DRY
AIR AT H85 HOLDS ITS OWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD BE A PERIOD IN
THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THOUGH...THINKING THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
WAY NOW IT APPEARS. CUTOFF LOW COULD MAKE RUN ACROSS UPPER LAKES BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THAT IS WHEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. STAYING COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHEN THERE ARE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS. LEANED ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER AT THE LOW
LEVELS THRU TONIGHT...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN
OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PROBABLY REACH KIWD EARLY THU
MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WILL WORK TO SLOW E/NE PROGRESSION OF PCPN.
BY LATE MORNING...PCPN IS LIKELY AT KIWD ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
PCPN (SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN) SHOULD BE CLOSE TO KCMX/KSAW BY 18Z AND WILL
CERTAINLY BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW
IS TRENDING STRONGER...SO EAST WINDS MAY REACH 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTN AFTER
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. POSSIBLE THAT SOME GALE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONGER EAST
WINDS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN
RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE ABOVE BANKFUL AT THIS TIME
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS. NEITHER OF THESE RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.70-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.
CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.
ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PCPN ON THU INTO EARLY FRI AS WELL AS PTYPE.
AT 12Z THU...THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV WL BE LOCATED NEAR THE CNDN
BORDER WITH MONTANA WHILE THE SRN DISTUBANCE SHIFTS E INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES CENTERS NEARBY.
DESPITE THE SEPARATION BTWN THE INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS...MODEL FCST RH
FIELDS SHOW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AREA OF HIER RH EXTENDING FM MN INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER OVERAL SE FLOW TO THE E OF LARGER SCALE LO PRES
TROF IN THE PLAINS. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THIS BAND AT THE
LATITUDE OF UPR MI IS FCST TO BE ABOUT 4 G/KG...BOOSTED BY H85 S
WINDS FCST UP TO 35-50 KTS E OF THE LARGER SCALE TROF AXIS. SO EVEN
THOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SRN SHRTWV WL REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE NRN DISTURBANCE AND THAT ONLY THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV
WL IMPACT THE CWA AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE TO THE E THRU FRI...
THERE WL BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBL FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY PCPN OVER UPR
MI AS THESE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE UPR LKS RESPECTIVELY BY 12Z FRI. DIFFLUENT H3
FLOW/SHARP H4-2 DVGC E OF THE ARPCHG NRN SHRTWV WL ALSO ACT TO
ENHANCE PCPN RATES OVER THE CWA.
THE 00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE THE NRN SHRTWV WL TRACK THRU CENTRAL UPR
MI...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOST LIKELY TO THE N OF THE H85-7-5 LO
TRACK FM ABOUT IRONWOOD/ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE BEFORE THE PCPN
SLOWLY DIMNISHES ON FRI WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV INTO SE ONTARIO.
BUT THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 22/12Z AND 23/00Z ECMWF SHOW A FARTHER N
TRACK FOR THE NRN SHRTWV AND H85-7 LO ACRS THE NRN KEWEENAW...WITH
EARLIER DRY SLOTTING BY 06Z-12Z FRI AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT
SEEMS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE NCEP MODELS. 24 HR PCPN TOTALS THRU 12Z
FRI SHOWN BY THE NCEP MODELS RANGE FM 0.65-1.10 INCH...LEAST OVER
THE SE AND GREATEST OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO
FCST TRACK. IN CONTRAST...THE 22/12Z ECWMF SHOWED 24 HR PCPN RANGING
FM 0.50 INCH OVER THE SE TO 0.75 INCH OVER THE KEWEENAW.
A MAJOR CONCERN THIS LATE IN THE SEASON IS ON PTYPE AND HOW SFC
TEMPS WL IMPACT SN ACCUM RATES. MODELS SHOW PCPN ARRIVING W-E ON
THU...REACHING NEWBERRY BY LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PCPN WL BE
ARRIVING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...WHEN H100-85 THKNS ARE FCST IN THE
1305-1310M RANGE...SUSPECT THE PCPN WL START AS RA OR A RA/SN MIX
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE INITALLY
DRY LLVL AIR. EVEN WHERE SN IS MIXED IN WITH THE PCPN...EXPECT LTL
IF ANY SN ACCUMULATION ON WARMER SFCS LIKE ROADS. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DYNAMIC COOLING WL ALLOW THE PCPN TO CHG TO PRIMARILY SN BY
00Z FRI AS H100-85 THKNS FALL TO 1295-1305M...ESPECIALLY AT
LOCATIONS TO THE N OF THE H85 LO TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM NEAR
SFC TEMPS...A HI AND THIN DGZ WL ALSO REDUCE SN/WATER RATIOS AND
MAKE THIS SN PARTICULARLY WET AND HEAVY. BEST BET ATTM IS FOR SN
TOTALS TO REACH 6 TO PERHAPS 8 INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW GIVEN THE MORE FVRBL LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE H85-7 LO
TRACK. OTHER HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA MAY
SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE FCST H85-7 LO TRACK ARGUES FOR MAINLY RA AND
LTL SN ACCUM OVER THE SE PORTION OF UPR MI.
SUSPECT FUTURE SHIFTS WL NEED TO ISSUE WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE HIER
TERRAIN OF NW UPR MI. GIVEN THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON SHRTWV LO TRACKS
AND THE IMPACT OF TEMPS ON SN ACCUM RATES FOR A MAINLY 4TH PERIOD SN
FALL...OPTED TO UPDATE GOING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
FRI NGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV DIVING ESEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND
DEPARTING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME LGT SN/RA TO THE CWA. THE 00Z CNDN
MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND GENERATES ANOTERH 0.50
INCH OF PCPN NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THIS STRONGER/WETTER SCENARIO
SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE HGT RISES/DRYING THAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER UPR MI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INITIAL
STRONGER NRN SHRTWV.
EXTENDED...THE NW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG BLDG IN THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO PRES AND TO THE S OF SPRAWLING HI PRES OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA ARE FCST TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS STARTING
ON SAT. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING NE
OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING A RETURN OF PCPN AS EARLY AS SUN
NGTCONSIDERING THIS HUDSON BAY HI AND THE LIKELY DRY NNE FEED OF DRY
AIR THAT WL IMPACT THE AREA/CLIMATOLOGY OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES
SYSTEMS IN SPRING...OPTED TO CUT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS AND KEEP THE
FCST DRY THRU MON. TEMPS WL AVG BLO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO OUR E DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EXIT E OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM FROM S CANADA THROUGH THE S PLAINS. COULD HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO
12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW VFR.
A LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 40KTS AROUND 2KFT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY AT IWD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF LLWS AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SFC LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT CMX AND SAW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE
LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW
GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS LEADING TO GREATLY REDUCED
SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER UPR MI. BUT SINCE RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SOME
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY. LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE BEEN ALSTON AND
CHASSELL ON THE STURGEON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS ON THE PAINT
RIVER...AND HARVEY ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER. SINCE CHILLY AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF SHOULD
DIMINISH AND PREVENT THESE RIVERS FROM EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IN THE
SHORT TERM.
REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF LATER THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF
OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE
0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL
FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.
CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.
ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO OUR E DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EXIT E OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM FROM S CANADA THROUGH THE S PLAINS. COULD HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO
12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW VFR.
A LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 40KTS AROUND 2KFT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY AT IWD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF LLWS AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SFC LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT CMX AND SAW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE
LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW
GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER
SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING
TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND
SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE
BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON
RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW
MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN MORE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.
WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGIN TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE A WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE TAFS...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A MIX. WE THINK THE MIX
WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z THOUGH. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 43 32 43 / 80 90 60 40
INL 36 45 32 42 / 80 90 70 40
BRD 41 52 35 49 / 90 70 40 30
HYR 38 50 35 49 / 90 90 50 40
ASX 36 47 34 44 / 80 90 70 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today
ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains. Increasing
southerly low level flow will result. All short-range model
guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern
Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa
today. Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could
clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM,
GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back
over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs
over our northwest counties. We should see highs pretty close to
what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be
starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning. The exception
will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer
than areas further east.
The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out
into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move
into northwest Missouri around 12Z. Still looks like showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it
moves through the CWFA on Thursday. Diurnal heating will likely be
limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so
instability still looks relatively weak. While there should be
enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not
look likely at this time. Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance
for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and
15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this
time of year regardless of cloud cover.
Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the
entire area shortly after 00Z. Still have some lingering precip
east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits,
but dry after midnight. Pacific high builds across the region
Friday morning. As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the
Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning. West-southwest
flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the
Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and
upper 70s.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on
the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear.
Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper
Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave.
The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday,
though models can`t make up their minds where. GFS stalls the front
across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF
stalls it out over northern Iowa. The GEM is right about in the
middle stalling the front over northern Missouri. All three models
have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the
primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a
secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which
will be exiting to the east (EC). Warm advection begins Saturday
morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone
and all three models print out some light precip. Have therefore
kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be
surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more
across the area if model trends become more consistent.
The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and
Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday
as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes
negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains. A strong
surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi
Valley Monday night into Tuesday. The upper trof cuts off and
becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into
the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall
or Winter than mid to late Spring. Unsure how likely this is to
happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen
do this. Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a
cold/wet end to April.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Area of showers currently over western Missouri is expected to weaken
this afternoon and is not expected to affect KCOU or KUIN at this
time. Main impact will be increasing midlevel cloudiness at
terminals. Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the
night ahead of next system which will move eastward. Southerly
low-level jet of 40-45 knots near 2000 feet AGL over central
Missouri and west- central Illinois could produce low- level wind
shear and added mention for KCOU and KUIN. For tomorrow...another
area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to move
into the area from west to east ahead of a cold front from late
morning into the early afternoon. Actual frontal passage and
accompanied wind shift is likely to be after this valid forecast
period.
Specifics for KSTL:
Increasing midlevel cloudiness is expected through the afternoon at
the terminal. Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the night
ahead of next system which will move eastward. Low-level jet axis
should stay to the west of KSTL precluding mention of LLWS. For
tomorrow...another area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
expected to affect Lambert Field around midday. However...actual
frontal passage and accompanied wind shift is likely to be just after
this valid forecast period.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today
ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains. Increasing
southerly low level flow will result. All short-range model
guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern
Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa
today. Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could
clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM,
GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back
over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs
over our northwest counties. We should see highs pretty close to
what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be
starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning. The exception
will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer
than areas further east.
The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out
into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move
into northwest Missouri around 12Z. Still looks like showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it
moves through the CWFA on Thursday. Diurnal heating will likely be
limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so
instability still looks relatively weak. While there should be
enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not
look likely at this time. Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance
for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and
15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this
time of year regardless of cloud cover.
Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the
entire area shortly after 00Z. Still have some lingering precip
east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits,
but dry after midnight. Pacific high builds across the region
Friday morning. As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the
Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning. West-southwest
flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the
Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and
upper 70s.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on
the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear.
Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper
Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave.
The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday,
though models can`t make up their minds where. GFS stalls the front
across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF
stalls it out over northern Iowa. The GEM is right about in the
middle stalling the front over northern Missouri. All three models
have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the
primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a
secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which
will be exiting to the east (EC). Warm advection begins Saturday
morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone
and all three models print out some light precip. Have therefore
kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be
surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more
across the area if model trends become more consistent.
The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and
Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday
as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes
negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains. A strong
surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi
Valley Monday night into Tuesday. The upper trof cuts off and
becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into
the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall
or Winter than mid to late Spring. Unsure how likely this is to
happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen
do this. Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a
cold/wet end to April.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
VFR flight conditions will continue to prevail this forecast
period, with winds veering and becoming more southerly as the
surface ridge moves off to the east. The next system which will
impact the area is taking shape over the plains, and as it moves
east, area TAF sites will see winds increase to roughly 10-15KT by
late morning/early afternoon in response to a tightening pressure
gradient and increased southerly flow. The aforementioned pressure
gradient should also be enough to produce some gusts around
20-22KT beginning by late afternoon, mainly impacting KCOU and
KUIN. Only increasing midlevel clouds are expected through the
period, and while there is a chance for precipitation to move into
central and northeast Missouri late Wednesday night, exact timing
has yet to be pinned down, and as the onset would be in the last
few hours of the forecast period, have not included mention at
this time.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period,
with winds continuing to veer and become more southerly as the
surface ridge moves east and the next system to impact the area
takes shape over the plains. Expect winds to increase to about
12-14KT by early afternoon, remaining fairly steady overnight, and
become gusty Thursday morning as the surface pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the approaching system. Showers and
thunderstorms will move through the area on Thursday, though exact
timing for impact at KSTL has yet to be pinned down, and as it
would likely be within the last couple hours of the forecast
period, have not mentioned it in the TAF at this time. Prior to
the storms, expect a gradual increase in midlevel clouds
overspreading the area from west to east today/tonight.
JP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 69 52 72 52 / 5 10 80 30
Quincy 66 49 66 46 / 10 20 80 20
Columbia 72 53 70 47 / 10 30 80 10
Jefferson City 75 53 70 47 / 10 20 80 10
Salem 65 49 72 49 / 5 5 70 50
Farmington 69 48 73 47 / 5 5 80 30
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
344 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today
ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains. Increasing
southerly low level flow will result. All short-range model
guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern
Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa
today. Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could
clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM,
GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back
over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs
over our northwest counties. We should see highs pretty close to
what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be
starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning. The exception
will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer
than areas further east.
The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out
into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move
into northwest Missouri around 12Z. Still looks like showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it
moves through the CWFA on Thursday. Diurnal heating will likely be
limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so
instability still looks relatively weak. While there should be
enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not
look likely at this time. Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance
for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and
15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this
time of year regardless of cloud cover.
Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the
entire area shortly after 00Z. Still have some lingering precip
east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits,
but dry after midnight. Pacific high builds across the region
Friday morning. As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the
Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning. West-southwest
flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the
Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and
upper 70s.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on
the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear.
Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper
Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave.
The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday,
though models can`t make up their minds where. GFS stalls the front
across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF
stalls it out over northern Iowa. The GEM is right about in the
middle stalling the front over northern Missouri. All three models
have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the
primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a
secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which
will be exiting to the east (EC). Warm advection begins Saturday
morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone
and all three models print out some light precip. Have therefore
kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be
surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more
across the area if model trends become more consistent.
The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and
Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday
as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes
negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains. A strong
surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi
Valley Monday night into Tuesday. The upper trof cuts off and
becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into
the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall
or Winter than mid to late Spring. Unsure how likely this is to
happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen
do this. Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a
cold/wet end to April.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014
VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high
clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly
and increase on Wednesday morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with
clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high
clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly
and increase on Wednesday morning.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 69 52 72 52 / 5 10 80 30
Quincy 66 49 66 46 / 10 20 80 20
Columbia 72 53 70 47 / 10 30 80 10
Jefferson City 75 53 70 47 / 10 20 80 10
Salem 65 49 72 49 / 5 5 70 50
Farmington 69 48 73 47 / 5 5 80 30
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.
FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
WIND CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KLBF TO KANW...WHILE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT EAST OF THIS LINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GET A
REPRIEVE AFTER 06Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS MIXING THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
RETURN. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LOCALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UNLESS A LOCATION SEES
A PASSING SHOWER OR STORMS TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/.
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT
DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE
LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1007 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.
FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z
THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/.
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT
DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE
LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.
FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z
THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.
FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF
UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1202 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
UPDATE INCLUDED FRESHENING UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LATE
TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RAP HAS
400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE NORTHEAST LATE. WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST NAM BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEW POINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.
UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.
NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS POSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF
UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25
MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY
JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1201 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
IMPRESSIVE 130M HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AHEAD OF IT...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. AHEAD OF ALL OF
THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING BOTH WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. AN FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING UP UNDER THE ACCAS FIELD OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE AREA JUST YET...THINK THESE WILL FADE AS
THEY APPROACH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL 850MB
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KTS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP ADVECT +8 TO +10C DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TSTM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD
NOW AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL BRING QUITE GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA WED MORNING AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WEST AND NORTH FROM 15-21Z.
EXPECT A LULL IN TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THU WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME WITH BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. PW`S BY EARLY EVENING DO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.50" SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WELL INTO IOWA BY THAT TIME.
LINGERING POST FRONTAL PCPN IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING.
BROAD/WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME
DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING
ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE
IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS ERN NEB...BUT LLWS WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE THRU ABOUT 12Z WED MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AREA OF -TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE THRU ERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR OCCASIONAL -TSRA/MVFR COND.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS ERN NEB TODAY WITH SLY WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30KT.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO WED EVENING THEN WHEN NEXT ROUND OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH TEMPO GROUPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT ADVERTISING THIS STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO
GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN
WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND
800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND
THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS VERY
COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF 17/18...AND AROUND 29F
FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC
DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH
WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID
FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. UNDER
MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE
TIMING THE END OF GUSTS. THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT RUT AS SFC WINDS DROP OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH I`VE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS (RECENT ALY VWP SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30
KTS AT 2-3KFT) AND EXPECTATION THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-TO HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY TRENDING
LOWEST FOR THE NY TAF SITES WITH APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.
00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANOTHER DRY DAY
FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30
PERCENT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLRING SKIES
AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF
17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING
VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U
20S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH
WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID
FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. UNDER
MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE
TIMING THE END OF GUSTS. THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT RUT AS SFC WINDS DROP OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH I`VE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS (RECENT ALY VWP SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30
KTS AT 2-3KFT) AND EXPECTATION THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-TO HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY TRENDING
LOWEST FOR THE NY TAF SITES WITH APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.
00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.
MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN.
IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 20% AND 30% ACRS
NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV
4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT
OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000
FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL
MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING
LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I
REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO
COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.
THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.
GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV
4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT
OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000
FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL
MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING
LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I
REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO
COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.
THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.
GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE
CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND
SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL
AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE
20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.
RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE
CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND
SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL
AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE
20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.
RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC LOW.
EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
915 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE CONVECTION
MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. EXPECTING FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 400 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...SPC`S NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER BOTTINEAU AND
MCHENRY COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET FUNNEL CLOUD
REPORTS FROM THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE. VERY WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE
30S. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP PROG FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR SAID REGION
DURING THE 09Z-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD.
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS IS BEING OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
A WET AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR 142W/43N
WITH AN UPSTREAM 300MB JET STREAK OF 160KT DIGGING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM
MODELS WITH A SPLITTING TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OFF NEAR COLORADO
SUNDAY...THEN CIRCULATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...700MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP WEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IMPINGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 50S BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT
KJMS...AND POSSIBLY KMOT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME (BY 3
HOURS) AND SPACE (3 COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST) AS WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGER THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE ALSO BEEN TOO FAST WITH PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY
THOUGH THE CWA. THE UPDATED WIND HEADLINES AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE CYCLONE/TROUGH HAS NOW ENTERED
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE COME DOWN A
BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES
FOR THIS UPDATE.
THE 12Z HRRR PROGS RAIN SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THE 16Z-21Z PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
RAPID CITY RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS OF
THIS WRITING. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO MODIFIED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER GRIDS TO GO FROM
UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT.
AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>003-010-
011-021-022-035-036-046-047-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-023-025-037-040-041-043-044-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE CYCLONE/TROUGH HAS NOW ENTERED
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE COME DOWN A
BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES
FOR THIS UPDATE.
THE 12Z HRRR PROGS RAIN SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THE 16Z-21Z PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
RAPID CITY RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS OF
THIS WRITING. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO MODIFIED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER GRIDS TO GO FROM
UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER
30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025-037-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER
30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025-037-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER
30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025-037-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...TRYING
TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION...BUT LARGELY KEPT IT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST ADDING THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BASED ON LATEST NAM/RAP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS OVERNIGHT. BASED
IN PART OF THE 23/01Z RAP AND THE 23/00Z NAM...HAVE SLOWED THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND
BOOSTED POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO FOLLOWED THE RAP
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGS TO TRIM BACK THE ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FAR WEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS (TOO HIGH). AS A RESULT...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT RECOVERY SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST
AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP OVER THE STATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO MINOT AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FURTHERMORE...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN...MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WARRANT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
TWO VIGOROUS SYSTEMS WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SYSTEM 1...
A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE AND
JAMES RIVER BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT AND WEST WINDS BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH A DRY SLOT BEHIND IT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS EXPECTING EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE/BOUNDARY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS - BETTER CHANCES NORTH -
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS - MAINLY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SYSTEM 2...
DURING THIS TIME THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS BLOCK MAINLY KEEPS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY
WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE US ROCKIES AND
CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE COLDER AND WETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. UTILIZED A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED AND
THIS IS DEPICTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 20 KTS. SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH TO
NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AND CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED
BY A LATE MORNING LULL AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO MORE
WESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1116 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT HAS BEGUN TO BREAK UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE AS
MIXING GETS GOING.
OLD BELOW...
NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY
TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT
MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION.
BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS
LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT
NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.
LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS.
STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
FRONT.
MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN
MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.
USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
STRATOCU DECK HAS HUNG ON OVER NORTHERASTERN WV AND MOVED ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO. GENERALLY STAYING VFR EVEN IN
THE CLOUDS...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE AS MIXING BEGINS.
OLD BELOW...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT
WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUD DECK IN THE NORTH
DISSIPATING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/LS
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY/LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
608 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY
TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT
MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION.
BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS
LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT
NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.
LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS.
STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
FRONT.
MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN
MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.
USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUD DECK IN THE NORTH
DISSIPATING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/JW
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY
TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT
MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION.
BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS
LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT
NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.
LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS.
STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
FRONT.
MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN
MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.
USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE NORTH COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
358 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD AND IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...WELL INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH...WE ARE SEEING A SUBTLE
AND SLOW DROP OFF IN SPEEDS OUT OF CRITERIA LEVELS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WILL LET THE JAMES VALLEY PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 21Z WITH THE REMAINING EASTERN AREA GOING UNTIL 00Z.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND...ALSO DEALING WITH SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS...WE
ARE SEEING A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. SO...EXPECTING DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP YET THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH
VALUES LIKELY GOING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW.
TEMPS STAY MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY. GFS IS STILL STUBBORN IN BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AT 850 MB INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...SHOWING A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS REALLY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS THOUGH SO HAVE
GONE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE EC AND GEM.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A MAINLY WET
AND COOL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN
WOBBLES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO MUCH OF
OUR CWA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
WITH THE RAIN...CLOUDS AND CANADIAN AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE MAY AFFECT THE
TAF LOCATIONS AND WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE
VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AT ALL
LOCATIONS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR
CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ESPECIALLY ATY WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT
ATY. THE SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS
COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THURSDAY FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE-
UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-
DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
851 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 01Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KSHV TO KPSN TO KERV. THE
FRONT WAS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE RATHER MEAGER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
OF A PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE RAP BRINGS THE WIND SHIFT TO A
CALDWELL TO ONALASKA LINE BY 10Z. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A BIT
DIFFUSE DURING THE MORNING WITH ONSHORE WINDS REESTABLISHED
AREAWIDE BY 17Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6
INCHES WITH STRONG CAPPING AT CRP AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AT
LCH. RADAR SHOWED A FEW WEAK ECHOES SO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE GRIDS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. STRONGER WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT THE T/TD GAP IS
NARROWING SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ONCE SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. NEW ZONES OUT BY
900 PM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SE TX
THIS EVENING. DO NOT THINK THE FRONT WILL GET TOO FAR PAST
INTERSTATE 10. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. A FEW MORE RURAL SPOTS MAY
EXPERIENCE FOG FORMATION AROUND 06Z. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN MVFR CLOUD DECK FROM KHOU TO THE COAST. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY HINT AT THAT POSSIBILITY. IF BELOW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z FRIDAY MORNING.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE AREA...AND SOME CIRRUS
ALOFT. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED
UPON ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY
DEVELOPED ALONG 850 MB JET AXIS...WITH THE NORTHERN AND STRONGER
STORMS APPEARING TO GET A LITTLE EXTRA BOOST FROM SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. RADAR NOW CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP.
LIMITED CHANCES TO FORECAST. RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LAY DOWN RAPIDLY APPROACHING SUNSET. THIS AHEAD OF A WEAK NW-SE
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS
LIMITED...AND AT THIS TIME INCLUDING OUR ONLY RAIN CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. ANY POST-FRONTAL CHANGES WILL BE
LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...AND AN
EQUALLY BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT WILL THEN STALL MOVING
OFFSHORE... AND RETREAT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
RETURNING SOUTHERLIES WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE NORM THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL USHER IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND WITH THAT WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ADVECTION FOG. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN MORE OF A STRATUS LAYER THAN FOG. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL
HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY...INCREASING SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE MID PLAINS INDUCING A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE.
INGREDIENTS OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM COMING TOGETHER IN SUCH A
FASHION THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED
FOR LATE MONDAY. FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHARPLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR KCXO HAS SINCE WEAKENED/PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...WHILE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TREK FROM EAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY KARM TO KGLS LINE. NE TO SW ORIENTED
COLD FRONT CONTINUES A STEADY SOUTHEAST PUSH...AND SHOULD REACH
JUST NORTHWEST OF KCLL BY 00Z...AND NEAR KCXO BY 06Z. PROGRESS IS
FCST TO SLOW AS THE BOUNDARY TAKES ON A MORE E-W ORIENTATION...BUT
IS FCST TO CONTINUE OOZING TWD THE COAST WHILE WEAKENING. MORNING
RAOBS AT KCRP AND KLCH INDICATED HEALTHY CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...WHICH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA...WHILE ERODING
FARTHER NORTH. THE VCTS AT KCLL AND KUTS WAS LEFT AS IS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF CLOUD
COVER...MOSTLY VFR...WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA WHERE THE CURRENT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS...KLBX AND KGLS.
MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE.
SOUTHERLIES WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH AS WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF
WATERS...AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A GUSTY OFFSHOE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 62 85 64 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 65 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 68 77 70 80 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO
PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING RNK 00Z/8PM SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE
INCREASING AROUND 718MB WITH A PWAT AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THE 18Z NAM
GFS AND HRRR HINT AT MOISTURE SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...MADE NO CHANGES
WITH FRIDAY CONVECTION. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.
AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RAISED EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SOLAR
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST
RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT ARRIVAL TIME FOR CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION
AND POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN ISC
GRIDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS
MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A
FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID
40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT.
POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF
THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC
KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME
30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME
OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS
REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS.
H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL
EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE
APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING
AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY
AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MVFR AS
NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TOWARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALLOWED FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM AT DAN.
ELSEWHERE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE
BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR
ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 637 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/PW
FIRE WEATHER...KK/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO
PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RAISED EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SOLAR
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST
RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT ARRIVAL TIME FOR CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION
AND POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN ISC
GRIDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS
MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A
FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID
40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT.
POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF
THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC
KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME
30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME
OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS
REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS.
H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL
EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE
APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING
AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY
AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MVFR AS
NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TOWARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALLOWED FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM AT DAN.
ELSEWHERE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE
BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR
ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 637 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/PW
FIRE WEATHER...KK/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1001 PM PDT Thu Apr 24 2014
.Synopsis...
A weather system will bring a chance of widespread precipitation
along with cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels tonight
into early Saturday. Potential for isolated thunderstorms on
Friday.
&&
.Discussion...
Showers continue to increase this evening as upper trough drops
south along the coast. A band of strong thunderstorms developed
earlier this evening near Chico with plenty of lightning and a
few small hail reports. Best shower chances overnight will shift
south over the southern Sacramento valley and central Sierra
as shown by latest HRRR run. Have updated forecast to raise pops
in these areas overnight. Showers will increase over northern
areas towards morning with upper low dropping south.
.Previous Discussion (Today through Sunday)... WSW to SWly flow
aloft over Norcal moistening as .80+" TPW plume moves onto the Nrn
CA coast. Mostly Light precip forecast through most of tonite as
the frontal band moves towards the I-80 corridor by around
midnight...and well SE of our CWA by early Fri morning. Synoptic
scale or larger scale forcing is forecast to increase over Norcal
on Fri (per convergence of Q vectors) as short wave and jet energy
on the backside of Ern Pac trof digs the trof along the coast
during the day. Then...during Friday night into early Sat this
energy continues to dig rapidly into Socal. Thus...for our CWA the
bulk of the precip is expected on Fri in widespread and bands of
heavier showers/storms. Liquid amounts over an inch in the Siernev
are possible and up to a third of an inch in the Valley. QPF
should then be decreasing from N to S during Fri afternoon and
evening.
Cloud top enhancement west of the CA coast beginning to occur this
afternoon as short wave energy near 40N/135W begins to interact with
the moisture plume. This feature moves Ewd tonite and rain or
showers should become more widespread over Norcal during the
night. Convergence and surface heating along the E side of the
coastal range may result in an isolated storm this evening...
otherwise decreasing intensity until dynamics increase Fri
morning.
Heavier precip is expected on Fri as the digging trof will bring
colder/unstable air into Norcal...not only lowering snow
levels...but resulting in deep convection (showers/thunderstorms).
One...snow levels should lower to around around 4000 Nrn mtns to
4500 to 5500 feet over the Siernev on Fri. Two...the best
instability and greatest thunderstorm potential looks to be over the
central and southern Sacramento valley in deference to the location
of the NE quad of the vort max during the 18z-00z Fri time frame.
Increasing onshore gradients on Fri will result in Delta Breezes and
topographic channeling of the winds on the E side of the Sac vly.
Convergence there could be the focus for stronger storms with
possibility of hail.
Up to nearly a foot of snow is expected over the higher elevations
of the Siernev and 5-9 inches or so near pass levels...although
melting/settling at this time of year may account for a couple of
inches less accumulation. Greatest snowfall amounts expected to be
from the I-80/Hwy-50 corridor Swd in zone 69 given the track of
the short wave energy within the upper trof.
This rapidly digging trof maintains a neutral tilt over CA. Forecast
hodographs for the valley on Fri are mostly cyclonically curved...
not broadly looping and favoring left moving storms with negative
helicity. This is not the typical TOR set-up for Norcal...and favors
more the hail producing storms given the steep lapse rates forecast
with the advection of colder air.
As this system moves across the Four-Corners area Sat nite...
another short-wave is forecast to bring a chance of light precip
mainly over the mtns into Sun morning. By Sun afternoon...ridging
should prevail over Norcal with warmer/drier wx. JHM
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Medium range models amplify EPAC upper ridge through first half of
the extended forecast period for dry weather and warming.
Amplifying EPAC upper ridge Monday is forecast to shift inland
Tue/Wed by the GFS/GEM. The ECMWF-HiRes keeps the ridge axis off
the West Coast as it digs an upper low southward through the
Great Basin. The GFS/GEM solutions suggest more warming than the
Euro which points to breezier conditions Tue/Wed. All point to
temperatures well above normal early next week with highs from the
mid 80s to near 90 in the Central Valley and upper 60s to lower
80s for the mountains and foothills.
Models diverge beyond midweek but all suggest minor cooling as
the ridge weakens Thursday, either from an approaching Pacific
short wave system or from a backdoor trough dropping in from the
east. Thus have lowered temps a few degrees day seven with
continued dry.
PCH
&&
.Aviation...
A cold front system continues to impact NorCal tonight into
Friday. For the next 24 hours, valley conditions will generally be
VFR except for local MVFR/IFR when showers develop. For the
mountains, areas of MVFR/IFR expected with local IFR conditions in
heavier showers. Snow levels will lower overnight down to
4500-5500 ft by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible
across the valley and mountains between 12z Fri and 03z Sat.
Generally W to S winds in the valley now through Friday with
enhanced southerly winds in portions of the valley Fri morning and
afternoon with local gusts up to 30 kts between KCIC and KSMF.
Mountain winds will be SW with gusts up to 35 kts...locally higher
over Sierra ridgetops. JBB
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 5 am pdt saturday above 5000 feet
in the west slope northern sierra nevada...western plumas
county/lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
915 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS. BEGINNING SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 130W THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF WFO SACRAMENTO/S WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE WAY THE LATEST NAM-12 AND HIGH-
RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/ HANDLE THIS STORM AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE HRRR HAVING A BETTER DEFINED WARM
FRONTAL SECTOR. THE 00Z HRRR BRINGS PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS
HANFORD BY 13Z /0600/ FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AN
HOUR LATER. THE WARM SECTOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF HANFORD AROUND 15Z /0800 PDT/...CONTINUING OVER TULARE COUNTY
THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM-12 HAS MUCH SLOWER TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND
KEEPS IT NORTH OF KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM-12 TIMING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z
GFS...LENDING BETTER SUPPORT TO THE HRRR TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH
THROUGH KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS/HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z FRIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY IN PRECIPITATION. LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 107 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATING PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM NRN CA WILL SPREAD PRECIP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATES
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH UPSLOPE FORCING AND WRING OUT
ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST TOMORROW AS COLD POOL REMAINS
OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING IN THE AM WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED CELL POP UP NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. MUCAPES
ARE LESS THAN 200 J/KG AND SFC BASED LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 0 OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
SNOW WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE SIERRA AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
START HIGH AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER WE ARE EXPECTING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THE NEW
HPC/CNRFC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL WITHIN ADV CRITERIA. WE HAVE STARTED SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000
FEET AND LOWERED THEM TO 4000 FEET BY THE END OF THE EVENT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS. AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF INTO KERN COUNTY
AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CONDITIONS
WIND DOWN LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AM.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT REGIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERT ESCARPMENT NEAR MOJAVE. WINDS
WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SAT...INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-24 101:1910 60:1899 63:1910 36:1958
KFAT 04-25 101:1898 55:1952 64:1898 36:1964
KFAT 04-26 98:1926 57:1955 68:1926 37:1975
KBFL 04-24 100:1910 64:1994 62:1981 34:1904
KBFL 04-25 97:1946 60:1951 65:1910 32:1893
KBFL 04-26 98:1926 57:1904 67:1926 32:1893
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK SOUTH TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...JDB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHACE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS. BEGINNING SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 130W THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF WFO SACRAMENTO/S WARNING/FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE WAY THE LATEST NAM-12 AND HIGH-
RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/ HANDLE THIS STORM AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE HRRR HAVING A BETTER DEFINED WARM
FRONTAL SECTOR. THE 00Z HRRR BRINGS PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS
HANFORD BY 13Z /0600/ FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AN
HOUR LATER. THE WARM SECTOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
OF HANFORD AROUND 15Z /0800 PDT/...CONTINUING OVER TULARE COUNTY
THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM-12 HAS MUCH SLOWER TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND
KEEPS IT NORTH OF KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM-12 TIMING.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z
GFS...LENDING BETTER SUPPORT TO THE HRRR TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH
THROUGH KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS/HRRR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z FRIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY IN PRECIPITATION. LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 107 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATING PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM NRN CA WILL SPREAD PRECIP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATES
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH UPSLOPE FORCING AND WRING OUT
ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST TOMORROW AS COLD POOL REMAINS
OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING IN THE AM WE COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED CELL POP UP NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. MUCAPES
ARE LESS THAN 200 J/KG AND SFC BASED LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 0 OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.
SNOW WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE SIERRA AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
START HIGH AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER WE ARE EXPECTING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THE NEW
HPC/CNRFC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL WITHIN ADV CRITERIA. WE HAVE STARTED SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000
FEET AND LOWERED THEM TO 4000 FEET BY THE END OF THE EVENT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS. AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF INTO KERN COUNTY
AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CONDITIONS
WIND DOWN LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AM.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT REGIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERT ESCARPMENT NEAR MOJAVE. WINDS
WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
SAT...INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-24 101:1910 60:1899 63:1910 36:1958
KFAT 04-25 101:1898 55:1952 64:1898 36:1964
KFAT 04-26 98:1926 57:1955 68:1926 37:1975
KBFL 04-24 100:1910 64:1994 62:1981 34:1904
KBFL 04-25 97:1946 60:1951 65:1910 32:1893
KBFL 04-26 98:1926 57:1904 67:1926 32:1893
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK SOUTH TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...JDB
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.
BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.
SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT
NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A
MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES
IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO
FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF
ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF.
ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING
MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD
FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS
HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND
MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING.
HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES
AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS
AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING
CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT
COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASE TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL TO
40 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT
SOUTH TONIGHT AND TURN WEST AROUND 10 MPH SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BRING A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BRING
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE QPF.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.
BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.
SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT
NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A
MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES
IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO
FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF
ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF.
ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING
MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD
FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS
HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND
MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING.
HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES
AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS
AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING
CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT
COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SNCDRY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.
BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.
SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE
WILL BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE GA COAST AND EAST CENTRAL
FL COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA...VERTICAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LOW OVER SE GA/NE FL FOR PRECIP TODAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FROM FORMING
AND HAVE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ENOUGH LOW/MID MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
SUNDAY AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S COAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND
TO THE MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS RESULTING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM THE WEEKENDS VERY WARM READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE MAINLY LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR WED/THU...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING MORE TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN THE 60S.
.AVIATION...
INLAND BR AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WILL USE IFR FOR GNV...WITH MVFR FOR VQQ/JAX.
WILL KEEP CRG/SSI VFR. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/BR WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. SEABREEZE EFFECTS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH PREVAILING SW WINDS
THIS AFTN OF 10-14 KT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A VEERING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 81 65 76 63 / 10 10 10 0
JAX 87 61 85 62 / 10 10 10 0
SGJ 84 64 79 64 / 0 10 10 0
GNV 87 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 87 64 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING
INTO EASTERN AL.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT
THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL
WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE.
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N
GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE
GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY
OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND
MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW
GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AL. THE PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE HAD TO ADD PRECIP TO
THE TAF. AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST. HAVE ADDED VCSH AND A TEMPO GROUP. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE
TEMPO GROUP IN FURTHER AMD IF LINE DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES INTO A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. CIGS SHOULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0
ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5
MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0
VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
128 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
Compact upper vorticity maximum is now transversing Missouri this
evening. In advance of the wave, arcing area of convection now is
passing through the Ohio River/Mississippi River confluence region
and into western KY. Based on the latest radar imagery, this
activity should be approaching our western counties by 04Z and into
the I-65 corridor by 06Z...reaching the I-75 corridor by 09-10Z.
Overall, the convection has been steadily weakening as the
convection has been running into a more stable and less moist
environment. Nonetheless, showers and scattered thunderstorms will
impact most areas overnight. Once the arc of convection passes,
we`ll see a brief pause in the rainfall then more scattered showers
are likely as the actual vorticity maximum passes overhead, just
before sunrise. Severe weather threat looks very low at this time
as the dynamics and instability are not all that impressive. Brief
heavy rains and some gusty winds will be possible as the storms move
through the region overnight.
The current forecast has this well covered quite well. Only some
minor adjustments to precipitation timing was made with this
evening`s update.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
In the near term, afternoon visible satellite imagery shows high
level cirrus clouds progressing northeast across central KY and
southern IN, in advance of a shortwave to our west, with surface
temperatures warming steadily to near 70 east and lower and mid 70s
west. Temperatures will continue to rise a couple/few more degrees
through late afternoon before falling back this evening.
Pronounced shortwave over KS/OK at this time will move steadily east
tonight accompanied by an increase in low-level moisture and
southerly winds, which will effectively limit/end our evening fall
in surface temperatures overnight. Surface winds should become gusty
overnight. Currently, this system is causing widespread convective
development from western MO to eastern OK and AR. Models are in good
agreement bringing these storms in a band into central KY and
southern IN late this evening and overnight. The 15z HRRR and 12z
in-house mesoscale models bring the leading edge of the convection
to our western forecast area border around 04 UTC.
Looking at model soundings, boundary layer cools this evening but
steep lapse rates and elevated instability remain if lifting a
parcel from about 900-950 mb. This will support continuation of
convection as axis of precipitation moves across our area,
especially western part of forecast area. With increasing winds at
925 and 850 mb, there is a chance that greater momentum air could
mix down to surface and create a few strong wind gusts with the
strongest cells (again, more likely in western sections), but
presence of weak-to-moderate nocturnal boundary layer inversion
should keep strongest winds aloft, unable to penetrate to surface.
After this band passes, there could be a brief lull in precip, but
models bring another area of moisture through from early to mid
morning (from west to east) associated with the actual mid-level
trough axis and surface front. As a result, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected during that time, with models
again indicating presence of some instability.
Front passes through the area first half of Friday. Winds behind the
boundary will become quite gusty from the west-northwest around 30
mph. Morning clouds and lingering showers will move off to the east
followed quickly by a clearing trend. Highs Friday afternoon should
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, depending on how rapdily skies
clear. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows again down in the
40s in most locations.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014
Saturday - Sunday...
Heights will rise through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge
axis approaches and then slides through. Meanwhile, a cold front
will sag southward across southern Ohio and into central IN,
stalling by Saturday evening as it becomes parallel to the upper
level flow. Technically, it would be a back door cold front if it
were to make progress through the area, but it looks to stall just
to our north. Either way, the boundary will be moisture starved and
we should stay on the warm side of it. This will lead to a dry and
warm weekend. Expect highs on Saturday in the upper 70s north to low
80s south. Lows Saturday night should dip into the lower 50s. Should
start to see an gradual increase in mid and upper level clouds on
Sunday as the ridge axis starts to slide east, however 1000-850
thicknesses and 850 mb temps will support a 2-3 degree increase from
Saturday. Therefore, have gone with mostly lower 80s on Sunday. A
few Bluegrass or southern IN counties may stay confined to upper 70s.
Will continue to leave the slightest of chances for a shower or
storm in our far western tier or two of counties late Sunday
afternoon, however bulk of precip will not arrive until Sunday night
onward.
Sunday Night - Tuesday...
By Sunday night, blocking upper ridge axis will be off to our east
with an impressive closed upper low over the central Plains.
Southwesterly flow through a deep layer will overspread the Ohio
Valley, including a 40 knot low level jet nosing in. The
quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be just off to our northeast
with expansive mid level deformation aloft. By dawn on Monday,
expect scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms mainly along
and west of I-65. These likely shower and t-storm chances will then
encompass the entire CWA on Monday. Tough to tell how well we
destabilize in this environment, but it appears that a stronger to
possibly severe storm threat will be conditional upon
destabilization, especially along and west of I-65.
Another threat of stronger to severe storms may move in later Monday
night into early Tuesday as the exit region of another impulse
rotating around the upper low ejects out of the southern Plains.
Again, strength of storms would be conditional upon destabilization.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms could then plague the area
again later Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Will continue to monitor threat for stronger storms to start the new
work week, but will also keep an eye on the threat for periods of
heavy rain and flooding. With repeated rounds of t-storms possible
and PWATs jumping up around 2 std deviations above normal for this
time of year, flooding could become a concern. Tough to judge
temperatures during this time, solid reading in the 70s seem
reasonable each day on the warm side of the boundary and warm
advective flow. Obviously, convection will be the deciding factor.
Lows will be mild during this time, at least in the low 60s in most
spots.
Tuesday Night - Thursday...
We begin to transition to a cooler period by the middle and end of
the week as the wobbling upper low and its associated surface
reflection slide into the Midwest. Precipitation chances look to
become more scattered in nature during this time with thunder
chances becoming less likely. These days will likely not be
wash-outs, but will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler. Look
for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s and lows in the low and
mid 40s by Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2014
Surface low pressure over northern Illinois this hour will bring
deteriorating conditions into our terminals for the next several
hours. Some light rains have preceded a couple of bands of
thunderstorms that have been waning. However, additional storms are
forming closer to a vortmax now entering Western KY. Have gone close
to LAV guidance for timing the best chance for storms to affect the
terminals, but in general will have showers in the vicinity until we
can clear this forcing by daybreak. Low clouds will linger in the
wake of the rain for a few more hours, but model time height
sections indicate clear skies this afternoon.
As for winds, we have several boundaries in the area now, so they
will be somewhat variable until the main cold front gets through mid
to late morning. High pressure then will build in from the south
tonight, bringing light and variable winds.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Updated forecast to account for precipitation trends. A large area
of showers and thunderstorms continues to spread across the forecast
area this evening. The entire region should have experienced a good
soaking rain by midnight. Also kept higher rain chances over the
northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area late this evening through the early
pre-dawn hours Friday to account for greater elevated instability
associated with the passing mid level trough. With the low levels
slow to moisten up and deep layer shear lacking, severe storms have
not materialized. The threat has all but ended at this time, though
an isolated strong storm still cannot be completely discounted.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into
southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but
mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area
ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening.
Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated
with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating
factor for this event.
The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing
the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter
counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It
appears as though the convection will become more organized as it
moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z.
Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly
enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to
result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the
main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two
with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just
how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling
moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe
threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the
better low-level moisture will be located.
The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some
wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the
area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The
showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro
area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity.
The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday,
but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal
boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri
State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It
basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and
the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much
difference.
As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for
lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday.
Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so
decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous
forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will
approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med
range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but
agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that
time frame.
Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will
begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence
aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in
plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms
east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be
nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day
time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the
slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are
possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available
instability, severe weather is possible into the evening.
From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually
wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the
Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue.
There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around
the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to
depart.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 15-16Z...
otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 06-09Z
and between 09-14Z at KEVV/KOWB. Gusty southerly winds at 10-12
knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest
during the night with speeds slightly decreasing, veer around to
the northwest between 11-13Z aob 15 knots, then variable aob 5
knots after 00Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west
to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the
southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge
axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into
next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and
lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next
week.
The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture
into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk
this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West
Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate
temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to
even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient
tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind
gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer
moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later
today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this
afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn
mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag
criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit
the fire danger risk for most areas.
A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as
heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE
into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a
sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection
may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE
values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level
lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a
few hours Saturday morning.
Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the
Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally,
morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning
hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front
develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused
further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the
Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place
that should prevent any surface based convection from forming
through the daytime hours of Saturday.
Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of
storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for
convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas
and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over
NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later
convective development into the evening hours across the Southern
Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the
Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s
looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of
elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards
daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE,
elevated hail producing supercells would be possible.
Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and
Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward.
Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should
continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty
on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the
CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated
as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting
the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we
may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across
the northern CWA.
The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday
afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and
destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe
convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off
the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection,
with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend
timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast
moving into the weekend.
Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming
vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s
forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for
convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given
the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on
Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional
convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected
to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for
below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Surface ridging continues to move across the terminals. Fog is
anticipated in STJ, with temporary restrictions to LIFR through
daybreak. Otherwise VFR conditions likely through Friday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
348 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM FRIDAY...STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 500
MB TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE OCEAN BY MID
MORNING PER LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STILL
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF
OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH
AS ABOUT 2000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL. THINK THE
PRIME TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE
ROUGHLY 20Z TO 03Z AND THINK GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...OUR NORTHERN AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED
REGION FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER
60S COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND GIVEN THE INCREASING S/SSW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME
MVFR CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THE 3 KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
REGION BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD
LAYERS BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-
VFR. WILL JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND
LOWER CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM
THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION
WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EXCEPT HAVE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES
OUTER BANKS. TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING. THE 3 KM HRRR TRIES TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AROUND
11Z BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DAMPENING SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. SPC UPGRADED SVR OUTLOOK TO
SLIGHT RISK OVER AREA AND CONCUR ON MARGINAL SVR THREAT DURING AFTN
WITH FCST SOUNDING CAPES TO AROUND 1200 AND SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST POPS WITH 20% OVER SW HALF OF AREA DURING
MORNING WITH INITIAL WAA...THEN 30-50 POPS FOR TSTMS DURING
AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WRN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE TO
AROUND 80 INLAND SECTIONS EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...AND AROUND 70
OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRI EVENING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPCLY NE TIER CLOSER TO SHORT
WAVE AND BETTER FORCING. COULD STILL BE SMALL CHC OF STRONG TO SVR
STORM EARLY BUT WITH INSTAB WANING THREAT SHLD END QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALL PRECIP SHLD EXIT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS FRONT/SHORT WAVE
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND
60 BEACHES. WEAK HIGH WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF
SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPR 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES.
SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THRU THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND
STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT
ESPCLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE CST TO MID/UPR
70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE LATER
MON ESPCLY INLAND AND CONT SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HIGHWAY 17 IN THE
AFTN. ISENT LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO
THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH
GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NRN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS
WITH CHC POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHC SE.
TUE THROUGH THU LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPR LOW STALLS NEAR SRN
GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR
JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BOUTS OF SHRA
AND POSS TSRA THRU THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO
GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. SOME INDICATION THAT WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ON FRONT AND PUSH BULK OF MOISTURE OFF THE CST LATER THU BUT TOO
EARLY TO REALLY JUMP ON THAT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUE INTO
THU HOWEVER CLDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPR 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE 3
KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION
BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD LAYERS
BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR. WILL
JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT MVFR POSS EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
THEN VFR FROM M ID EVENING ON AS MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES
WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT
WL LIFT N THRU THE REGION LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH INCREASING
CHC OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO MARINE FORECAST. WINDS
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3
FEET ON ALL WATERS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PRODUCE
INCREASING S-SW WINDS ON FRIDAY. MODEL BLEND INDICATES WINDS 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE
AFTN...AND POSTED SCA THERE AT 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT.
BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY WITH 4-6 FT LIKELY OUTER PORTIONS
OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...BRIEF SCA EXPECTED FIRST PART OF FRI NIGHT CNTRL
AND SRN TIER WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN
THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OUTER WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET. WINDS WL GRAD SHIFT TO NW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORN.
WEAK HIGH WILL CROSS TO THE S SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS
AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SSE THRU THE REGION LATER SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15 TO 20
KTS CNTRL AND NRN TIER BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO
4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...POSS SOME 5 FOOTER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN
WTRS. HIGH PRES WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N
THRU THE AREA TUE WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AS OF 545 UTC...FOG CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH FOG
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. OTHER THEN
TO ADJUST LOWS FOR TONIGHT BASED UPON TRENDS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE CONVECTION
MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. EXPECTING FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 400 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY
LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...SPC`S NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER BOTTINEAU AND
MCHENRY COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET FUNNEL CLOUD
REPORTS FROM THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE. VERY WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE
30S. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP PROG FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR SAID REGION
DURING THE 09Z-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD.
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS IS BEING OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
A WET AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR 142W/43N
WITH AN UPSTREAM 300MB JET STREAK OF 160KT DIGGING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM
MODELS WITH A SPLITTING TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OFF NEAR COLORADO
SUNDAY...THEN CIRCULATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...700MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP WEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IMPINGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 50S BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
IFR/LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE 08-14 UTC TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE 06 UTC TAF SET. HOWEVER...POST 06 UTC...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF NEBRASKA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TO NEAR KUTS AT 0445Z AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
LIVINGSTON TO BRENHAM BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE NAM12 AND HRR
MODELS BOTH AGREE WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z FROM KCXO SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 14Z OR 15Z WITH VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 01Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KSHV TO KPSN TO KERV. THE
FRONT WAS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE RATHER MEAGER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
OF A PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE RAP BRINGS THE WIND SHIFT TO A
CALDWELL TO ONALASKA LINE BY 10Z. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A BIT
DIFFUSE DURING THE MORNING WITH ONSHORE WINDS REESTABLISHED
AREAWIDE BY 17Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6
INCHES WITH STRONG CAPPING AT CRP AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AT
LCH. RADAR SHOWED A FEW WEAK ECHOES SO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE GRIDS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. STRONGER WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT THE T/TD GAP IS
NARROWING SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ONCE SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. NEW ZONES OUT BY
900 PM. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 85 64 86 69 / 10 10 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 85 63 85 69 / 10 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 77 70 80 70 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
204 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO
PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING RNK 00Z/8PM SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE
INCREASING AROUND 718MB WITH A PWAT AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THE 18Z NAM
GFS AND HRRR HINT AT MOISTURE SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...MADE NO CHANGES
WITH FRIDAY CONVECTION. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.
AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY...
RAISED EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SOLAR
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST
RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT ARRIVAL TIME FOR CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION
AND POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN ISC
GRIDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS
MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A
FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID
40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT.
POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE
MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF
THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC
KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME
30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME
OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS
REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS.
H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL
EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE
APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE
AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING
AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY
AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND 11AM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 21Z/4PM. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA
BY 21Z/4PM WITH RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...TONIGHT...
AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR ABOUT A 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...DIMINISHING
BY SUNSET SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE
MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO
PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
THE PCPN HAS CLEARED EAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS A FEW HOURS BEHIND
IT. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ALREADY REACHED KRST...AND EXPECT IT TO DO
THE SAME FOR KLSE AROUND 06Z. WITH SCT/SKC SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AND A SATURATED NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE RECENT
RAINS...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BECOMES A CONCERN. LATEST
BUFKIT/NAM12 SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN INVERSION DEVELOPING OFF THE
SFC...SUGGESTIVE OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP...ALA
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER. STILL...ENOUGH
FAVORS IT TO CONTINUE BR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE STILL
LOW IN JUST HOW LOW VSBYS COULD GO IN FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...SO WILL
STICK WITH 2-4SM FOR NOW. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING
GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
615 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE GA COAST AND EAST CENTRAL
FL COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA...VERTICAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LOW OVER SE GA/NE FL FOR PRECIP TODAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FROM FORMING
AND HAVE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ENOUGH LOW/MID MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
SUNDAY AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S COAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND
TO THE MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS RESULTING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM THE WEEKENDS VERY WARM READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE MAINLY LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR WED/THU...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING MORE TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN THE 60S.
.AVIATION...
INLAND BR/LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH
13-14Z...WITH IFR FOR GNV/VQQ/JAX PERHAPS REACHING CRG. VFR WILL
PREVAIL FOR SSI. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/BR WILL LIFT BY MID
MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. SEABREEZE EFFECTS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH PREVAILING SW WINDS
THIS AFTN OF 10-14 KT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A VEERING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 81 65 76 63 / 10 10 10 0
JAX 87 61 85 62 / 10 10 10 0
SGJ 84 64 79 64 / 0 10 10 0
GNV 87 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 87 64 86 61 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING
INTO EASTERN AL.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT
THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL
WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE.
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N
GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE
GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY
OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND
MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW
GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE ALL BUT
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK ALONG THE
AL/GA LINE ARE CREEPING EASTWARD. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING...NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL OCCUR AND
LAST VERY LONG. CLOUDS WILL SCT OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20KT. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE EARLY EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0
ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5
MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0
VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
931 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.Update to Fire Weather Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
An intense upper level storm system will move on shore across the
western US late this afternoon then move into the great basin and
desert southwest through Tonight.
The southwesterly flow at mid levels will increase across the
central Rockies causing a lee surface trough to deepen across the
central and southern plains. This will cause South-southwesterly
winds to increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH through the
day Friday. The southerly winds along with deeper mixing will help
High temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
CWA.
Tonight, deeper gulf moisture will begin to be transported northeast
on an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. Isentropic lift will
begin to increase across the southern and eastern counties of the
CWA after midnight and isolated elevated thunderstorms may begin to
form around 9Z and last into the mid morning hours of Saturday.
However the 6Z run of the NAM model now shows the more favorable
isentropic lift developing east of the CWA after 12Z. MUCAPES are
forecasted to increase to 500 to 1000 j/kg along and south of I-35.
Effective vertical wind shear above the LFC to the EL will also
increase to 30 to 35 KTS across eastern KS by 12Z SAT. If elevated
thunderstorms develop late Tonight, then some of the elevated
thunderstorms may produce quarter size hail along and south of I-35.
Any elevated thunderstorms north of I-35 that manage to develop
Tonight, where the MUCAPE will only be 200-600 J/kg, may produce
small hail.
Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 50s given
southerly winds and low-level moisture advection through the night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Some early day convection may linger across southeast portions of
the county warning area and will maintain low end pops across the
eastern 1/3 of the cwa in the morning before convection chances
shift off to the east. For the remainder of the day...a
strengthening elevated mixed layer should suppress convective
potential over most of the cwa except in the far western counties
near/just beyond peak heating where highs in the upper 80s and
convergence may be erode/breach capping inversion with isolated
or scattered convection. Otherwise a very warm and breezy day across
the area with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s.
For Saturday night...the main upper level trough will begin to
rotate out into the high plains of southeast CO with another weaker
shortwave moving northeast across the cwa in southwest flow aloft.
This continues to be slightly slower than previous runs...and with
the delay in stronger forcing aloft and retreating dryline to the
west...uncertainty still exists as to how the severe convection that
forms off the dryline late in the day will be sustained as it moves
northeastward towards/into the cwa through the evening/overnight.
Other convection...mainly elevated in association with the weaker
shortwave...should develop overnight as llvl jet also increases.
This convection could pose a large hail threat. Will maintain higher
end chance pops.
The most concentrated and potentially strongest convection appears
to be on Sunday as the main shortwave lobe over southwest
KS/northwest OK region at 12z Sunday...lifts northeastward across KS
through the day. Moderate instability develops just ahead of the
dry slot across the eastern half of the cwa by midday and Bulk
shear dramatically increases west to east as the upper trough and
associated jet lifts out across the area with all modes of severe
weather possible...although severe wind and hail would be primary.
The dry slot spreads further east of the remainder of the cwa into
the evening with rapidly decreasing chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather.
The upper low will pivot eastward slowly and traverse the cwa
through into Monday night and with cooler air and circulation
aloft... could see enough destabilization to warrant the mention
of thunder through the daytime hours Monday. Otherwise will
maintain shower potential through mid week as main upper trough
and then secondary northwest flow shortwaves eventually move
across the area.
After high temps in the 70s on Sunday...will cool highs into mainly
the 60s Monday....then mainly the 50s and lower 60s on through
Thursday. Lows should generally be in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Patchy shallow ground fog was noted at KTOP and should mix out an
hour after sunrise. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. There may be some isolated thunderstorms with scattered
STRATOCU after 10Z SAT. If winds diminish later tonight then
moderate to strong LLWS between the SFC and 1500 FT may develop at
the TAF sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 912 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Morning sounding at KTOP revealed ample amount of subsidence air
throughout the column. Soundings from the RUC and NAM indicate
strong mixing through 800 MB by late afternoon, bring RH values
lower to the upper teens and near 20 percent. Wind gusts across
the north central areas average between 15 and 20 mph sustained
with gusts up to 30 mph during the late afternoon. Fire weather
partners agreed that the fuels remain critical at this time and will
go ahead with a Red Flag Warning for north central and portions of
northeast Kansas today. Please see the product for more
information.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-
020>022-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1033 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FRESHENED UP FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 50 ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A BLEND OF LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z
ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THIS DRIER AIR. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MVFR/LOWER CLOUD COVER
ACCOMPANYING PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHROUDS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE SOUTH HELPING PUSH CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE
CLOUDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE
SITES BY LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER A PLEASANT FLYING DAY SHOULD
LINGER WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PASSING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
FORECAST...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE THIS.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HINT AT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO TIME SHOWER AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DID REQUIRE A REDUCTION IN
POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR OF 60KT PLUS AND HELICITY VALUES GREATER
THE 250. WHILE THE WORST OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF THE AREA...ABOVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH IT IN
THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
A TREND THAT STARTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY CONTINUES
WITH THE OOZ GUIDANCE IN THAT THE LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY SLOWS DOWN...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN WE WERE
THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE...THUS KEEPING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW...BUT ONCE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CAN BE BETTER
ASCERTAINED...WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE POPS SOMETIMES OVER THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
WITH EVERYTHING SLOWING DOWN AND THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT LOOKING
TO BE DIMINISHED DID HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING SOMETIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BRAZZELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 64 81 68 / 20 10 10 10
KBPT 83 65 80 69 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 82 59 84 66 / 0 10 10 10
KLFT 83 64 82 68 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR SUNDAY. CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
IT WILL LIKELY CAUSE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MID ATLANTIC IS IN S-SELY FLOW
AT THE SFC ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE
30S IN NRN MD TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL VA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS
REACHING I-95 CORRIDOR AFTER 2PM. 12Z IAD RAOB IS STILL DRY WITH
A PWAT OF 0.63 INCHES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES DEWPTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE THE TREND ALOFT
AS WELL AS A MOIST S-SW LLJ MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURATING THE COLUMN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TODAY AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING. PER MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS STILL LACKING BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND UPDRAFTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE LOW LCLS AND 0-0.5KM SHEAR OF
30KTS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FURTHER NORTH LOWER DEWPTS AND LESS
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. SOME WARMER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...CAUSING MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 70S.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT...CAUSING A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY.
A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO IT
WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE A WARM AFTERNOON. A DEEP MIXING LAYER
ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME AREAS
IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TOPPING OFF AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...A CU DECK WILL
DEVELOP WITH SKIES TURNING OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR.
AS THE LOW SPIRALS ACRS THE NERN CONUS SAT EVE...THE CDFNT WL SWING
ACRS THE CWFA. BAROCLINICITY/INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS TO BE FVRBL TO
SQUEEZE OUT A LTL QPF ALONG/AHD OF THE BNDRY. A FEW SPRINKLES...
MAYBE? MDL FIELDS PICKING UP ON THIS MORE THAN MOS. WL CONT
THOUGHT PROCESS FM THE AFTN...CARRYING 30 POPS ACRS SRN MD/NRN VA
PIEDMONT ELY EVNG. AFTER THAT...SAT NGT WL BE ALL ABT THE CAA.
SKIES SHUD BE CLRG QUITE EFFICIENTLY IN NW FLOW AS DEWPTS DROP
INTO THE 30S. DIURNALLY...ITS NOT TIMED APPROPRIATELY FOR MIXING
THRU THE NGT. HV A GUSTY EVNG /MDL SNDGS SUGGEST G20KT/ BEFORE
DCPLG STARTS TO TAKE HOLD.
RDGG WL BUILD INTO CWFA SUN-SUN NGT. H8 TEMPS WL BE COOLER THAN
SAT...BY AS MUCH AS 6C. HV MAXT ARND 10 DEGF LWR...IN LINE W/ A MDL
BLEND. CLR SKIES DURING THE DAY WL FADE BY NGT AS MID-LVL MSTR
ADVECTS THIS WAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS HAS 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BLDG OVR AREA ERY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MVG
OFSHR TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY CHCS OF WETNESS DURG THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME - AREAS OF SUPPORTING VORT ENTERING RGN TUESDAY
AFTN...WEDNESDAY MRNG THROUGH THURSDAY MRNG AND AGAIN FRIDAY MRNG.
SEEMS HPC ENSEMBLE IS MVS SYS E ARND 12 HRS FASTER THAN GFS/ECMWF.
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WL REMAIN CENTERED OVR NRN PLAINS/GT LAKES AREA
THROUGH THE PD. EURO IS IMPLYING A CAD WEDGE WL DVLP WED. THIS
WOULD HELP IN KEEPING TEMPS BLO NRML...PSBLY HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S!
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO
OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR ANTICIPATED REST OF THE WKND. HWVR...THE PTNL EXISTS FOR LOW
CIGS/VSBYS DURG THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WK DUE TO RA.
&&
.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH.
A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS AND A GALE
WARNING MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
CDFNT CLRS WATERS SAT NGT. WNDS SVRL THSND FT OFF DECK WUD SUPPORT
GLW...BUT NOT SURE THE MIXING WL BE PRESENT. ITLL DEPEND UPON HOW
QUICKLY COLD AIR MOVES ACRS WATERS...TO IMPROVE LAPSE RATES. AM
CARRYING A SOLID SCA INSTEAD. GLW PSBL CAN REMAIN IN THE HWO.
SHUD HV A CPL QUIET DAYS AFTER THAT /SUN-MON/. CONDS LOOKING UNSTLD
THEREAFTER.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO SHARPLY INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. SINCE THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICAL NORMS...MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DURING THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS.
THE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT
WILL BE STRONG. THEREFORE...ANY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534-
537-539>543.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
535-536-538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west
to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the
southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge
axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into
next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and
lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next
week.
The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture
into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk
this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West
Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate
temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to
even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient
tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind
gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer
moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later
today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this
afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn
mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag
criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit
the fire danger risk for most areas.
A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as
heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE
into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a
sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection
may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE
values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level
lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a
few hours Saturday morning.
Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the
Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally,
morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning
hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front
develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused
further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the
Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place
that should prevent any surface based convection from forming
through the daytime hours of Saturday.
Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of
storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for
convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas
and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over
NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later
convective development into the evening hours across the Southern
Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the
Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s
looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of
elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards
daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE,
elevated hail producing supercells would be possible.
Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and
Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward.
Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should
continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty
on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the
CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated
as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting
the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we
may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across
the northern CWA.
The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday
afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and
destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe
convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off
the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection,
with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend
timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast
moving into the weekend.
Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming
vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s
forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for
convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given
the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on
Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional
convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected
to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for
below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Fog will continue for STJ for the upcoming 1-3 hours, but generally
VFR conditions are anticipated for all terminals today. Winds will
remain from the southwest.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE.
CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW THIS MORNING PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 18Z. FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER UPPER RIDGING THIS
MORNING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS SUPPORTED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION W OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WAS IN THE FORECAST. NOTED THE ECMWF BROUGHT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RIDGING
ALOFT...THIS POSSIBILITY APPEARED TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY POPS
THERE. FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR WAS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CAPE. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL
BE STEEP AND WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. LATEST RAP SHOWED NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES IN THE WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS AREA WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE. DID EXPAND THUNDER MENTION FURTHER INTO CARBON COUNTY
BASED ON THE RAP FORECAST. GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES...GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW PUSHES N INTO THE AREA FROM WY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N OF
THE AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE W. CURRENT POP
DISTRIBUTION FOR TONIGHT LOOKED REASONABLE IN THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCES FOR EVENING THUNDER IN THE W LOOKED FINE AS WELL. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND...IN CASE THUNDER MENTION
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
DRY WX EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP TROF ALONG THE PAC
COAST...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW MOVING THRU THE
GREAT BASIN. AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF PCPN FROM THE SW THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME WEAK ECHOES IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOW. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST THIS AFTN AND EVENING IN OUR WEST PER
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ASCENT IN RRQ OF SWLY JET...AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL SFC WINDS. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF BILLINGS...AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD TS TO PARK/
WHEATLAND COUNTIES WITH LIFTED INDICES ON THE ORDER OF -1C.
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES
GOING THRU THE NIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH DRYING
FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED...AND THIS PROMISES TO
BE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD OF WX FOR US THRU SAT NIGHT...INCLUDING
BILLINGS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MT
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER CELLS...
THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE WX THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. PCPN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER
AND HALF INCH WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH GREATER THAN A HALF INCH
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS PER THE UPSLOPING AND
INSTABILITY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7KFT OVER OUR WESTERN
MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME HIGH FOR SHOWERS
AND SOME DECENT PCPN TOTALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SINCE
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND GIVEN THIS WILL NOT BE A LONG
DURATION EVENT FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS...THIS PCPN SHOULD NOT HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...THOUGH THE ADDITIONAL
SNOW WATER WILL HAVE TO COME OUT EVENTUALLY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IT WILL BEGIN TO TURN COOLER IN OUR
NORTH/WEST ON SATURDAY PER ONSET OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION...BUT OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 70F WITH THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN
SE MT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN SUN AND TUE WITH LIQUID MOISTURE TOTALS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY. THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED SHOWING A
STRONG...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS SUN...FORMING A CLOSED 500-MB LOW OVER NE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SIMULATIONS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
AND THEY ALSO AGREE THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SET UP
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT TOO...PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION. THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION COULD
BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS PULLED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LARGER-
SCALE FLOW...BUT AT THIS POINT A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD OF POPS FROM
70 TO 90 PERCENT IS PRUDENT. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLAY SUN AND THEN
CHANCE-STYLE POPS MON AND TUE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT IT/S
POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATON VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS.
ONE QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR ACTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
UNTIL SUN NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST...WHEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS 850-
MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 0 C. THE 00 UTC GFS IS WARMER...WITH
ITS PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM NOT EVEN SUPPORTING A MIX OF SNOW
UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE WANING. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUN NIGHT.
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS NOTABLE.
BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE 500-MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING WILL EXIST
IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THAT WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW WARM-UP OVER
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...AND LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21 UTC FROM AROUND
KLVM TOWARD KBIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR WEATHER WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTH WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 044/061 041/052 036/052 035/053 037/058 036/061
3/W 56/T 87/W 43/W 33/W 22/W 11/B
LVM 060 038/053 035/052 031/052 032/054 033/059 034/063
6/T 78/W 95/W 32/W 22/W 11/B 11/U
HDN 067 039/064 040/051 036/051 037/053 035/057 032/061
2/W 34/T 78/R 65/R 34/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 069 044/065 042/048 036/046 035/049 035/052 033/057
0/B 43/T 79/R 97/O 43/W 32/W 11/B
4BQ 069 042/070 041/048 034/046 034/047 033/050 032/056
1/B 23/T 79/R 96/O 54/W 43/W 11/B
BHK 067 043/064 041/046 034/043 033/044 032/048 030/054
0/B 22/T 79/R 97/O 54/W 32/W 11/B
SHR 067 039/066 039/048 033/048 033/049 031/053 031/058
2/W 23/T 68/R 65/O 33/W 32/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING DAY ON TAP AS THE THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST
FORCING OF THIS TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS SHOWING 1500+
JOULES KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF
ELIZABETHTOWN. TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER. ALSO THE LATEST 12 UTC BUFR SOUNDING
KEEP SHOWING THE WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH PROHIBITING THE
STORMS FROM GROWING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROP QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE
FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT
NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS
CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND
INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE
FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF
THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX
AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND 17Z. THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY AS A
POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY
WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10
TO 15 KTS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING DAY ON TAP AS THE THE
FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO THE NORTH BUT A THE TAIL
OF THE THAT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
INSTABILITIES...CAPE...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1600-1900 JOULES KG-1
BUT LIMITING MOISTURE AND WARM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
PROHIBITIVE FACTORS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROP QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE
FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT
NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS
CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND
INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE
FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF
THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX
AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND 17Z. THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY AS A
POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT WILL AGAIN FLIRT
WITH COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS
EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY
WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10
TO 15 KTS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
903 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 855 AM FRIDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO PREV FCST. LOWERED INIT
POPS/CLOUDS AS LOOKS LIKE ACTVTY WILL BE MAINLY OVER WATER/NEAR SRN
BEACHES THIS MORN. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SVR THREAT LATER THIS AFTN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND COLD FRONT. DECENT MIX OF INSTAB
AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 150.
BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF
COLDER WTR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 70S INLAND TO UPR 60S/AROUND
70 BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST
HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 855 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS
LATER TODAY CONT THRU THIS EVENING WITH SCA CNTRL AND SRN WTRS.
PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.
SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL
NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST
WHILE OVER LAND A FEW BIRD BURSTS HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. THE
OFFSHORE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...THOUGH BALD HEAD ISLAND COULD END UP
BRUSHED BY THE CLOSEST ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
LIFTING WARM FRONT BENEATH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY. ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED (OTHER THAN ISSUANCE OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL REGION THE
THREAT APPEARS RATHER SMALL. INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...SURFACE
BASED CAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG IN MOST PLACES WITH POCKETS OF CAPE >
1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY AND DEVELOPMENT OF 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
80S IN MOST AREAS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 60+ DEWPOINTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY BODE WELL FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING AND SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS
PRESENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 3K
AND 10K FT...DEEPEST ACROSS INLAND NC COUNTIES. IT IS ABOVE THIS
LAYER THAT THE AIR MASS RAPIDLY DRIES OUT...JUST AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS BUILDING. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS QUICKLY OPENING UP AND BECOMING
POSITIVELY TILTED. THE TIMING BETWEEN THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
THE PVA IS OUT OF SYNC. INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE AREA ENDS UP WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED POP GRADIENT (HIGH NORTH LOW
SOUTH) BUT EXPAND THE RANGES A BIT. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BUMP TO 50 ACROSS NORTHERN TIER.
PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR
MOVING IN AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY DISSIPATING. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP ITS PASSAGE DRY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MINIMAL AT BEST. THE COMBINATION
OF WARM TEMPS TODAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT RESULT
IN LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS.
VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE
FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT
NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL
POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS
CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND
INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE
FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF
THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH
THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND
17Z. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY
AS A POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY
EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING.
WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AN ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN THROUGH 9 AM.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH TODAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING MORE DEFINED
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID
15 KT AROUND MIDDAY...FURTHER INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THIS
EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH STIFF N-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY
DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP BY LATE SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10
KTS OR LESS MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT WILL FALL QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AS THE NW WIND
PUSHES HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASING
SPEEDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY
WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10
TO 15 KTS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WELL OFFSHORE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...BUT
HAVE KEPT A SMALL POP IN TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY MOVING IN OFF THE
WATER. STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE OCEAN BY MID MORNING PER LATEST
3KM HRRR MODEL. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS ABOUT
2000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL. THINK THE
PRIME TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE
ROUGHLY 20Z TO 03Z AND THINK GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...OUR NORTHERN AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED
REGION FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER
60S COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND GIVEN THE INCREASING S/SSW FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST
HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH SEAS JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
MARINE FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN
MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO
3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER
LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS
7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE DISSIPATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AS SUN ANGLE INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME SOUTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF
LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SASK...WHICH THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...INCREASING
SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z...HOWEVER NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR AFTN HOURS.
CURRENT GRIDS SCATTERING THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE...SO WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED WITH 1
PM OR EARLIER UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. WE WILL REMOVE ANY POPS
AFTER 18Z IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT
MORE TODAY...WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TOO MUCH SUNSHINE. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A NOWCAST AND NOT ISSUE
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
COLORADO CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE ARE GETTING
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING
SYSTEM...AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF MIX THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SOUTHEAST INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY. WE WILL
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG. IF WINDS STAY DECOUPLED THOUGH...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG.
FOR SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND IT SHOULD
BE BREEZY TO WINDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM SW TO NE AND THEY COULD DRY UP BEFORE
PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...BUT IT COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
ANY AREA.
ON SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF NE SD. IT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE MAY MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL WAA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION INCREASES AND PWATS RISE
TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND A VERY WINDY DAY
WITH EAST WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX FROM
925 FOR MOST AREAS...SO A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...ANOTHER DREARY DAY EXPECTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
AROUND A POTENT LOW DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SD.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...OVERALL A SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN THE BLOCKED
UPPER FLOW. WHILE THE MODELS ALL SHOW GENERALLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES MAY BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WITH DRY AIR POSSIBLY IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO
PARTS OF NW MN. THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER. CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION COULD AFFECT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...SOME PRECIP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW COULD
LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. THUS...HAVE POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS...BUT
SOME PRECIP-FREE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE DRY CANADIAN AIR TRIES
TO EXERT INFLUENCE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...SO HIGH
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS ON A GIVEN
DAY. KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERING OF
CLOUDS TOWARDS 00Z. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THOUGH WITH CLEARING
TREND...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PJS
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
955 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO PIVOT NE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST WITH AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF ILN/S EASTERN FA AROUND MIDDAY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AND WARP AROUND SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO EARLY
AFTN. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GOOD DRYING ALLOWING
INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTN
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GUSTS UP 30 MPH.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO EARLY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND THEN SUNSHINE
WITH CAA. HAVE HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. A WEAK SFC FNT WILL
DROP DOWN INTO NRN OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
NW MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE
EXTREME NRN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SAG THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE DESCENDING FRONT.
BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE STUCK ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FRONT DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE SAGGING FRONT ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THE MID 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
ON SUNDAY THE NORTH MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRIMARILY VFR AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DOES NOT LOOK TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
BE MVFR IN MOST SITES...AND MOST DEFINITELY WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS
KICK IN BY THE LATE MORNING. RAP HAS A HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTION AREA AND REALLY DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 15Z. NAM APPEARS
TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS IN THE COLD POOL
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT THE TIMING IS SIMILAR...ENDING BY
17Z WITH LOW CIGS FAVORED THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. KCMH/KLCK WILL SEE A
LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BUT COULD STAY VFR FOR A LOT OF THIS
MORNING.
AS NW WINDS KICK IN WITH A STRONG GUST TO 25-30KT...DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY REMOVE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
IN THE EVENING UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. WEST WINDS WILL JUMP
BACK UP TO THE 10-20KT RANGE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NR THE IL/IN BORDER ATTM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW AREA OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES IN. BY MID
MORNING...AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF
THE THUNDER.
PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND A H5 S/W SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
COULD SEE GUSTS UP 30 MPH.
THE MORNING CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY AFTN CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. A WEAK SFC FNT WILL
DROP DOWN INTO NRN OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE
NW MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE
EXTREME NRN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SAG THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE DESCENDING FRONT.
BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE STUCK ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FRONT DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE SAGGING FRONT ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THE MID 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
ON SUNDAY THE NORTH MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST.
A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRIMARILY VFR AND THUNDER ACTIVITY
IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DOES NOT LOOK TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
BE MVFR IN MOST SITES...AND MOST DEFINITELY WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS
KICK IN BY THE LATE MORNING. RAP HAS A HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTION AREA AND REALLY DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 15Z. NAM APPEARS
TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS IN THE COLD POOL
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT THE TIMING IS SIMILAR...ENDING BY
17Z WITH LOW CIGS FAVORED THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. KCMH/KLCK WILL SEE A
LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BUT COULD STAY VFR FOR A LOT OF THIS
MORNING.
AS NW WINDS KICK IN WITH A STRONG GUST TO 25-30KT...DRIER AIR WILL
RAPIDLY REMOVE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
IN THE EVENING UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. WEST WINDS WILL JUMP
BACK UP TO THE 10-20KT RANGE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
711 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENSE FOG OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET TO ALMOST ZERO IN SOME
AREAS. DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE
AREAS EXPERIENCING THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
MIX DOWN DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KRST THROUGH AROUND
1330Z THIS MORNING THEN THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. PLAN ON 4SM BR AT KSLE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 15
TO 17 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ095-096.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ009>011-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KRST THROUGH AROUND
1330Z THIS MORNING THEN THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. PLAN ON 4SM BR AT KSLE THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 15
TO 17 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING
INTO EASTERN AL.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT
THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL
WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE.
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N
GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE
GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY
OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND
MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW
GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOST AREAS VFR ALREADY...SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA HOWEVER I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY 20Z...THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCAL IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER THIS
WOULD BE CONFINED TO CHRONIC...FOG-PRONE SITES AND I DO NOT EXPECT
ANY RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO
NORTHWEST 8-14KT WITH GUSTS 17-24KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO
3-6KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BY 12-14Z AREAWIDE AROUND
2-5KT BECOMING MORE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE INCREASING TO 4-8KT BY 16-18Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0
ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5
MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0
VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES AS
OF 2 PM ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AREA WIDE. DEWPOINTS HAVE
MANAGED TO STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ARE
ONLY NOW DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BROAD RIDGING
TAKING PLACE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO ALBERTA CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE CWA HAS NOW PUSHED EAST
INTO INDIANA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SEEN SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER
MINNESOTA WITH MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SYSTEM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND STALL AS IT REACHES THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. HI-RES
MODELS AND THE LATEST RAP TRENDS ALL SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
OMEGAS...AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT INCREASING TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM THE QUAD CITIES TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. I AM CONCERNED THAT
THE SURFACE TO 850MB LAYER MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND AND WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NIGHT SHIFT. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND ITS POSITION EARLY SATURDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING TO 900MB
AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. AN ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...BLOCKED...PATTERN
EVOLVING OVER THE CONSUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...RESULTING IN FLOODING ON AREA
TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. DEEP SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN TROF WILL BRING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE WARM
FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE POINTED
AT EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA PROVIDING FORCING FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.
THE MCS SHOULD TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING EASTERN IA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
MCS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE...SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MO OR SOUTHERN IA AND CENTRAL
IL AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING. HOWEVER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADIC STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS WPC 3 DAY TOTAL QPF
ENDING MONDAY MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG I80. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN PW/S OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM.
AFTER MONDAY MOST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MORE SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S AND THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW STILL OVER HEAD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK DRY SURFACE AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THEN TREND BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS...FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THERE STILL REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE IOWA-MISSOURI
BORDER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THREAT OF FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT OCCURS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY TO MIDWEEK. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS
GOING TO OCCUR OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH MANY
OF THE AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SEEING AT LEAST
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...GROSS
HYDROLOGY...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
An intense upper level storm system will move on shore across the
western US late this afternoon then move into the great basin and
desert southwest through Tonight.
The southwesterly flow at mid levels will increase across the
central Rockies causing a lee surface trough to deepen across the
central and southern plains. This will cause South-southwesterly
winds to increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH through the
day Friday. The southerly winds along with deeper mixing will help
High temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
CWA.
Tonight, deeper gulf moisture will begin to be transported northeast
on an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. Isentropic lift will
begin to increase across the southern and eastern counties of the
CWA after midnight and isolated elevated thunderstorms may begin to
form around 9Z and last into the mid morning hours of Saturday.
However the 6Z run of the NAM model now shows the more favorable
isentropic lift developing east of the CWA after 12Z. MUCAPES are
forecasted to increase to 500 to 1000 j/kg along and south of I-35.
Effective vertical wind shear above the LFC to the EL will also
increase to 30 to 35 KTS across eastern KS by 12Z SAT. If elevated
thunderstorms develop late Tonight, then some of the elevated
thunderstorms may produce quarter size hail along and south of I-35.
Any elevated thunderstorms north of I-35 that manage to develop
Tonight, where the MUCAPE will only be 200-600 J/kg, may produce
small hail.
Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 50s given
southerly winds and low-level moisture advection through the night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Some early day convection may linger across southeast portions of
the county warning area and will maintain low end pops across the
eastern 1/3 of the cwa in the morning before convection chances
shift off to the east. For the remainder of the day...a
strengthening elevated mixed layer should suppress convective
potential over most of the cwa except in the far western counties
near/just beyond peak heating where highs in the upper 80s and
convergence may be erode/breach capping inversion with isolated
or scattered convection. Otherwise a very warm and breezy day across
the area with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s.
For Saturday night...the main upper level trough will begin to
rotate out into the high plains of southeast CO with another weaker
shortwave moving northeast across the cwa in southwest flow aloft.
This continues to be slightly slower than previous runs...and with
the delay in stronger forcing aloft and retreating dryline to the
west...uncertainty still exists as to how the severe convection that
forms off the dryline late in the day will be sustained as it moves
northeastward towards/into the cwa through the evening/overnight.
Other convection...mainly elevated in association with the weaker
shortwave...should develop overnight as llvl jet also increases.
This convection could pose a large hail threat. Will maintain higher
end chance pops.
The most concentrated and potentially strongest convection appears
to be on Sunday as the main shortwave lobe over southwest
KS/northwest OK region at 12z Sunday...lifts northeastward across KS
through the day. Moderate instability develops just ahead of the
dry slot across the eastern half of the cwa by midday and Bulk
shear dramatically increases west to east as the upper trough and
associated jet lifts out across the area with all modes of severe
weather possible...although severe wind and hail would be primary.
The dry slot spreads further east of the remainder of the cwa into
the evening with rapidly decreasing chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather.
The upper low will pivot eastward slowly and traverse the cwa
through into Monday night and with cooler air and circulation
aloft... could see enough destabilization to warrant the mention
of thunder through the daytime hours Monday. Otherwise will
maintain shower potential through mid week as main upper trough
and then secondary northwest flow shortwaves eventually move
across the area.
After high temps in the 70s on Sunday...will cool highs into mainly
the 60s Monday....then mainly the 50s and lower 60s on through
Thursday. Lows should generally be in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VFR conditions prevail at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Wind gusts diminish this
evening with short term guidance developing scattered TS 12-18Z near
KTOP/KFOE. Inserted VCTS with some uncertainty on coverage and
placement of activity. South winds back overnight to the southwest
increasing from 12-18Z between 13 kts and 17 kts sustained with
gusts near 26 kts. Low confidence in LLWS developing overnight as
winds up to 1500 ft are near 40 kts. Will continue to monitor
surface wind speeds in case they weaken lower than current
forecast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 912 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Morning sounding at KTOP revealed ample amount of subsidence air
throughout the column. Soundings from the RUC and NAM indicate
strong mixing through 800 MB by late afternoon, bring RH values
lower to the upper teens and near 20 percent. Wind gusts across
the north central areas average between 15 and 20 mph sustained
with gusts up to 30 mph during the late afternoon. Fire weather
partners agreed that the fuels remain critical at this time and will
go ahead with a Red Flag Warning for north central and portions of
northeast Kansas today. Please see the product for more
information.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-
020>022-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOUND ITS WAY TO THE
COAST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE A RETREAT BACK TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF WILL FURTHER MOVE THE
FRONT BEYOND AEX LATE TNITE. THE REINTRODUCTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION LATE TNITE. MIXING
SHOULD PRECLUDE THIS FOG FROM LOWERING VIS BELOW MVFR. WINDS
SHOULD BE VARIABLE TODAY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TNITE...MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FRESHENED UP FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 50 ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A BLEND OF LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z
ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THIS DRIER AIR. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MVFR/LOWER CLOUD COVER
ACCOMPANYING PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHROUDS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE SOUTH HELPING PUSH CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE
CLOUDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE
SITES BY LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER A PLEASANT FLYING DAY SHOULD
LINGER WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PASSING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
FORECAST...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE THIS.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HINT AT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO TIME SHOWER AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DID REQUIRE A REDUCTION IN
POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR OF 60KT PLUS AND HELICITY VALUES GREATER
THE 250. WHILE THE WORST OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF THE AREA...ABOVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH IT IN
THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
A TREND THAT STARTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY CONTINUES
WITH THE OOZ GUIDANCE IN THAT THE LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY SLOWS DOWN...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN WE WERE
THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE...THUS KEEPING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW...BUT ONCE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CAN BE BETTER
ASCERTAINED...WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE POPS SOMETIMES OVER THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
WITH EVERYTHING SLOWING DOWN AND THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT LOOKING
TO BE DIMINISHED DID HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING SOMETIMES THIS WEEKEND.
BRAZZELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 64 81 68 81 / 20 10 10 10 20
KBPT 83 65 80 69 80 / 10 10 10 10 20
KAEX 82 59 84 66 83 / 0 10 10 10 30
KLFT 83 64 82 68 80 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT
OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT
IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC
ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z.
THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE
UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S
NE...TO AROUND 70 SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN.
TODAYS MODELS TAKE MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH & WEST OF
THE MTS TUE / WED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DID. FORECAST BECOMES RATHER
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE INITIAL COOL WEDGE THAT SETS UP TUES WITH
A SECONDARY EAST COAST SHOOTER DEVELOPS ALLOWING A TRIPLE POINT TO
MOVE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC ERLY WED. WHAT THIS CHANGE DOES IS ALLOW
THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO VA PULLING WARMER & MORE
HUMID AIR NORTH (BUT HOW FAR GIVEN PTNTL PIEDMONT WEDGE???). WILL
BE ADDING CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS SERN SECTIONS WED AFTRN.
THIS COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES
NE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THURSDAY TAPPING SOME OF THE GULF MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH. UPSHOT...A RATHER WET PERIOD TUES THROUGH THUSRDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS. BEST CHCS FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO AHEAD AND ALONG
THE COLD FRNT WED NIGHT AND THURS. DRYING OUT FRI.
HIGHS TUE L-M60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH. HIGHS WED/THU/FRI U60S-M70S.
LOWS MON NITE U40S-M50S. OTW...GNRLY 50-60.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN
SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY
SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY / RIVERS / CURRITUCK NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE BAY...SO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THERE. EXPT ABT
A 2-4 HR PRD OF GUSTINESS (UP TO 30 KTS) ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS
SAT AFTRN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS OUT NR 20 NM
SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS WTRS
SAT AFTRN ALLOWING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TO DMNSH
THRU SAT EVENING.
NEXT FRNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT PRODUCING A 3-6 HR SURGE OF CAA
SEEN DOWN THE BAY LATE SAT NIGHT...STRNGST OVR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN WNDS BCMG NE SUNDAY THEN E BY
MONDAY. HIGH PROB FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WNDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG
WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT
OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT
IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC
ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z.
THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE
UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S
NE...TO AROUND 70 SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WX MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN.
TODAYS MODELS TAKE MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH & WEST OF
THE MTS TUE / WED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DID. FORECAST BECOMES RATHER
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE INITIAL COOL WEDGE THAT SETS UP TUES WITH
A SECONDARY EAST COAST SHOOTER DEVELOPS ALLOWING A TRIPLE POINT TO
MOVE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC ERLY WED. WHAT THIS CHANGE DOES IS ALLOW
THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO VA PULLING WARMER & MORE
HUMID AIR NORTH (BUT HOW FAR GIVEN PTNTL PIEDMONT WEDGE???). WILL
BE ADDING CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS SERN SECTIONS WED AFTRN.
THIS COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES
NE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THURSDAY TAPPING SOME OF THE GULF MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH. UPSHOT...A RATHER WET PERIOD TUES THROUGH THUSRDAY
WITH LIKELY POPS. BEST CHCS FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO AHEAD AND ALONG
THE COLD FRNT WED NIGHT AND THURS. DRYING OUT FRI.
HIGHS TUE L-M60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH. HIGHS WED/THU/FRI U60S-M70S.
LOWS MON NITE U40S-M50S. OTW...GNRLY 50-60.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN
SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY
SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY / RIVERS / CURRITUCK NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A
DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE BAY...SO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THERE. EXPT ABT
A 2-4 HR PRD OF GUSTINESS (UP TO 30 KTS) ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS
SAT AFTRN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS OUT NR 20 NM
SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS WTRS
SAT AFTRN ALLOWING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TO DMNSH
THRU SAT EVENING.
NEXT FRNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT PRODUCING A 3-6 HR SURGE OF CAA
SEEN DOWN THE BAY LATE SAT NIGHT...STRNGST OVR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN WNDS BCMG NE SUNDAY THEN E BY
MONDAY. HIGH PROB FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WNDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG
WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
318 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT
OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT
IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC
ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND
10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z.
THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE
UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
(ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A
WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S
NE...TO AROUND 70 SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PRD
NEXT WEEK. TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL
MON AFTN WHEN THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINS
TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORN
DRY AS HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH IS SLOW TO RETREAT. LOWS M40S-L50S.
MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM NATIONS MID
SECTION MONDAY TO THE OHIO/TN VLLY WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SCNDARY LOW DVLPNG OVR THE MID ATLNTC REGION THURS WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING DEEPEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY LAGGING UPR LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THIS PRD. PRIME OF WHICH WILL BE
THE LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PROGGED TO HOVER SOMEWHERE ARND
THE NC/VA BORDER TUES THRU THURS. THE UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL MAKE
A PROBLEMATIC FORECAST FOR TMPS...WIND DIRECTION AND PCPN TYPE
(I.E. CONVECTIVE VS STRATI FORM). BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY THAT
THE TUES THRU WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WETTEST...SO HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THEN. OTW...KEPT PCPN SHOWERS CWA WIDE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. COULD VRY WELL END
UP BEING MORE OF A STRATI FORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IF A
COOL E-NE WEDGE SETS UP AS WELL AS HAVING TO ADD THUNDER TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION FARTHER NORTH.
ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECT A COOL AND WET PRD. HIGHS GNRLLY FROM THE
L-M60S NORTHERN HALF OF FA TO U60S-L70S SOUTHERN HALF. LOWS U40S-
M50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN
SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY
SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN.
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF THE CST THROUGH THE MRNG HRS...
RESULTING IN LGT/VRB WNDS BECOMING SSE. LO PRES FM THE W
APPROACHES/DRAWS CLOSER BY THIS AFTN. SSE WNDS INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WTRS...(LEADING TO SCAS ON PORTIONS OF THE
RIVERS AND ON THE BAY). LO PRES EXITS THE CST AFT MDNGT TNGT...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY A WINDSHIFT TO THE WNW AND A SURGE IN SPEEDS (ESP
OVR THE BAY/RIVERS AND FAR NRN OCN WTRS). CONTG SCAS ON THE BAY
THROUGH SAT MRNG...ADDING SCAS ON NRN TWO OCN ZONES FM LT TNGT
THROUGH SAT MRNG. LWRG SPEEDS BY SAT AFTN...CONTG THROUGH SAT EVE.
A CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS SAT NGT...RESULTING IN NNW WNDS INCRSG TO
ARND SCAS (ESP NRN PORTIONS). HI PROB FOR A PROLONGED PD OF ONSHORE
WNDS BEGINNING LATE IN THE WKND AND CONTG INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west
to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the
southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge
axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into
next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and
lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next
week.
The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture
into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk
this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West
Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate
temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to
even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient
tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind
gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer
moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later
today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this
afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn
mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag
criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit
the fire danger risk for most areas.
A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as
heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE
into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a
sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection
may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE
values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level
lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a
few hours Saturday morning.
Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the
Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally,
morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning
hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front
develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused
further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the
Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place
that should prevent any surface based convection from forming
through the daytime hours of Saturday.
Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of
storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for
convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas
and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over
NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later
convective development into the evening hours across the Southern
Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the
Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s
looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of
elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards
daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE,
elevated hail producing supercells would be possible.
Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and
Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward.
Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should
continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty
on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the
CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated
as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting
the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we
may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across
the northern CWA.
The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday
afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and
destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe
convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off
the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection,
with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend
timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast
moving into the weekend.
Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming
vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s
forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for
convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given
the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on
Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional
convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected
to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for
below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the daylight and much, if
not all, of overnight hours. Southwest wind will persist through the
day backing to the south late tonight as a surface high slides
farther east. As this occurs moisture, and clouds, will start to move
back in early Saturday morning. This will likely result in VFR low to
mid-level clouds moving in Saturday morning that might be
accompanied by some thunderstorms. Confidence in coverage for
morning storms is low though. Otherwise, expect the low level jet,
which will bring the moisture and storms, will also result in a
potential issue with low level wind shear Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDDLE EVENING.
SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINAS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
ON TAP AS THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADO WATCH TO THE NORTH AND
NO CONVECTION AT ALL TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST FORCING OF
THIS TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS SHOWING 1200 TO 1500+
J-KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF
SOUTHPORT TO BURGAW LINE. TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING
IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER WHICH IS KEEPING CAPES AROUND
THE 1000 J-KG-1.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...IF YOU DO LIKE THE IDEA OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER A WEEKEND...THIS
COULD BE AN EXQUISITE 2-DAY PERIOD UPCOMING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...PROVIDING A DEEP AND DRY WNW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
LOCAL COLUMN. RETURN FLOW OF WIND CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH AS IT
BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE...WILL BRING INCREASING ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY
AND CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MENTIONABLE POP
VALUES ARE NOT PLANNED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. AN A-TYPICAL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ON MONDAY
WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. RIDGE IN BETWEEN GETS PINCHED OFF BY TUESDAY TRANSITIONING
PATTERN FROM OMEGA BLOCK TO A HIGH-OVER-LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WE THEN LOOK TO THE WEST FOR OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES...AND DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAGE
WHEN AND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP. EVENTUALLY THINGS WILL
SHUNT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE GET INTO THE RIBBON OF DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INC IN POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE NO AIR MASS CHANGES
SO TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...REMAINING GENERALLY
ABOVE CLIMO BY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MILD...AND MAY RISE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR THE SAME REASON.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS TWO
SEPARATE BOUTS OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST WITH THE MAX INSTABILITY
AND THE SECOND WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS COULD BE
BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 02Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE BUMPIEST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND MARINE
PERIOD WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. STIFF NORTH WINDS EARLY SATURDAY HOWEVER
WILL QUICKLY EASE THEN VEER TO SSW BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CORE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE. 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS VERY WEAK.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH WIND AND WAVES AS
THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS MAINTAINED AND A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT
SEEMS THAT THE INCREASE IN BOTH MAY BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ107 INLAND NEW HANOVER COUNTY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DRH/43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON ON TAP AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADO WATCH TO THE NORTH AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL
TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST FORCING OF THIS TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE
IS SHOWING 1200 TO 1500+ J-KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A
MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF SOUTHPORT TO BURGAW LINE. TO THE EAST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER
WHICH IS KEEPING CAPES AROUND THE 1000 J-KG-1.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER
MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES
DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER
VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A
MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP
WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY
CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ON MONDAY
WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. RIDGE IN BETWEEN GETS PINCHED OFF BY TUESDAY TRANSITIONING
PATTERN FROM OMEGA BLOCK TO A HIGH-OVER-LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WE THEN LOOK TO THE WEST FOR OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES...AND DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAGE
WHEN AND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP. EVENTUALLY THINGS WILL
SHUNT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE GET INTO THE RIBBON OF DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INC IN POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE NO AIR MASS CHANGES SO
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...REMAINING GENERALLY
ABOVE CLIMO BY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MILD...AND MAY RISE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR THE SAME REASON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE
BOUTS OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST WITH THE MAX INSTABILITY AND THE
SECOND WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR
IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION
BY 02Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS VERY WEAK.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH WIND AND WAVES AS
THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS MAINTAINED AND A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT
SEEMS THAT THE INCREASE IN BOTH MAY BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
152 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...INIT WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INSTAB INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA...SOME POSS SEVERE WILL SPREAD IN LATER
THIS AFTN AS UPR SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER LIFT. DECENT MIX OF
INSTAB AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER
150. BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF
COLDER WTR. INCREASED POPS A BIT NRN TIER TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOWER 70S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BRING CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR. EXPECT
TS BTW 22Z TO 04Z PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...BRING CONDITIONS
TO MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT UP TO 20 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS CAN OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE TAF SITES...CEILING
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING BY 06Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KTS. CONT SCA HEAD LINE SRN AND CNTRL CSTL WTRS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SCA FOR CNTRL WTRS INTO SAT MORN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...WL DECIDE
AFTER LOOKING AT ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.
SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL
NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/BM
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...INIT WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INSTAB INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA...SOME POSS SEVERE WILL SPREAD IN LATER
THIS AFTN AS UPR SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER LIFT. DECENT MIX OF
INSTAB AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER
150. BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF
COLDER WTR. INCREASED POPS A BIT NRN TIER TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOWER 70S
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF
NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH
THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A
BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE
SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE
POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE.
TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS
NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS
MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY
IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST
HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON
NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA
WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KTS. CONT SCA HEAD LINE SRN AND CNTRL CSTL WTRS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
SCA FOR CNTRL WTRS INTO SAT MORN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...WL DECIDE
AFTER LOOKING AT ALL 12Z GUIDANCE.
PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.
SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL
NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT
WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD
REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO
15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS
MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2
TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
CURRENT VIS SHOWING THINNING/DISSIPATION ALONG ROUGHLY A PARK
RAPIDS- CROOKSTON-CAVALIER LINE WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE HAS ERODED
AF FAR NORTH TO CLEAR OUT VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON. NOW FEELING
MORE CONFIDENT THIS WILL SCOUR OUT BY SUNSET AND HAVE BEGAN
REDUCING SKY COVER IN AFTN HOURS. FCST DISCUSSION UPDATED MAINLY
FOR ADDITION OF NEW TAF DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE DISSIPATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AS SUN ANGLE INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME SOUTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF
LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SASK...WHICH THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO BREAK
OUT BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...INCREASING
SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z...HOWEVER NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR AFTN HOURS.
CURRENT GRIDS SCATTERING THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE...SO WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED WITH 1
PM OR EARLIER UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. WE WILL REMOVE ANY POPS
AFTER 18Z IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT
MORE TODAY...WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TOO MUCH SUNSHINE. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A NOWCAST AND NOT ISSUE
AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
COLORADO CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE ARE GETTING
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING
SYSTEM...AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF MIX THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
THERE WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SOUTHEAST INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY. WE WILL
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG. IF WINDS STAY DECOUPLED THOUGH...CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG.
FOR SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND IT SHOULD
BE BREEZY TO WINDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM SW TO NE AND THEY COULD DRY UP BEFORE
PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...BUT IT COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
ANY AREA.
ON SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF NE SD. IT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE MAY MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL WAA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION INCREASES AND PWATS RISE
TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND A VERY WINDY DAY
WITH EAST WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX FROM
925 FOR MOST AREAS...SO A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN...ANOTHER DREARY DAY EXPECTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
AROUND A POTENT LOW DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SD.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...OVERALL A SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN THE BLOCKED
UPPER FLOW. WHILE THE MODELS ALL SHOW GENERALLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES MAY BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WITH DRY AIR POSSIBLY IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO
PARTS OF NW MN. THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS WETTER. CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION COULD AFFECT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...SOME PRECIP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW COULD
LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. THUS...HAVE POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS...BUT
SOME PRECIP-FREE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE DRY CANADIAN AIR TRIES
TO EXERT INFLUENCE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...SO HIGH
TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS ON A GIVEN
DAY. KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
AREA OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/STRATOCU ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM KMOT TO KBWP TO KSTC WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES SOMETIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFTING TO MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SOME BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RED
RIVER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY...WITH MVFR STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRATUS TO STAY ABOVE 020 IN METROPLEX AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
AT WACO...GUIDANCE HAS MORE SPREAD...WITH GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
INITIALLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG SFC WARM FRONT BEFORE 09Z THAT
COULD BE FOG OR IFR. MODELS THEN LIFT CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS. RAP SUGGESTS STRATUS AS DOES TTU WRF. WILL KEEP
LOW MVFR STRATUS FOR NOW.
TSRA THREAT APPEARS LOW FOR METRO TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR WACO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. EXTENT OF
SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT 12Z MODELS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKENDS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES IS BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND CONFIDENCE
GROWS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST
OF THE CWA WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
SURFACE FOCUS OF THE DRYLINE TO SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WEST OF THE
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
OUR CWA IS THE TIMING OF ANY EASTWARD MOVING STORMS MAKING IT INTO
THE CWA AND THE STRENGTH OF A CAP EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 03Z WHERE SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN. THIS WINDOW WILL
ALSO BE AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND LCLS
BEGIN TO LOWER. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT
BEFORE THE CAP WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...ENDING SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION.
THE FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN TURN TO ELEVATED CONVECTION.
INCREASING LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8-8.5
C/KM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL FROM THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
SEVERE CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AND THEREFORE THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES
WILL BE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY..THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. THE INITIAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. IT IS SOMETIMES SAID THAT
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STORMS CAN BE NEGATIVE FOR AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ON SUNDAY THIS WILL IMPROVE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT WILL FALL INTO THE CAP. AIR WITHIN THIS LAYER IS DRY
AND WARM...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION ENCOUNTERS THIS...THE AIR WILL
COOL AND MOISTEN AS RAIN EVAPORATES. THEREFORE...COOLING BY
PRECIPITATION AND LIFTING OF THE CAP AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE THE CAP AROUND 18-19Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE.
THEN THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THE ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO
RECOVER BY THE AFTERNOON FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL...WITH THE NAM INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BY MID-DAY. THIS ISNT TOO
WARM...BUT THESE TEMPS WILL WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS
ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE NAMS FORECAST IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES WITH 0-3 HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 WHILE THE
GFS IS A BIT LESS. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL IN THE DAY 3
PERIOD AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FINED TUNED AS MESOSCALE
FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THERE IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
THE OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WHAT EXACT ROLE THAT WILL
PLAY ON AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES.
STORM CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. NORTH FLOW
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS STUCK IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 64 88 71 90 / 0 0 5 40 40
WACO, TX 85 61 86 68 89 / 0 0 5 20 20
PARIS, TX 80 54 86 68 80 / 0 0 5 40 60
DENTON, TX 84 60 86 71 87 / 0 5 5 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 87 71 87 / 0 0 5 40 40
DALLAS, TX 85 64 89 71 90 / 0 0 5 40 40
TERRELL, TX 82 58 86 69 84 / 0 0 5 30 50
CORSICANA, TX 85 60 86 71 85 / 0 0 5 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 86 64 87 70 89 / 0 0 5 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 85 60 90 70 88 / 0 5 10 50 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
OVER LAKE ERIE AT 3PM...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THEN INTO LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRF AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS FRONT
AND THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z/10PM.
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY IS EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS TRANSITIONING FROM DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS MORE
TO LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MODEL WERE SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS AND SOME DECENT PRESSURE RISES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A HEADLINE.
THE AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND IS NOT MUCH COOLER...BUT SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH IN ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND REMAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT AS A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE CONTROL. MAY SEE A RENEGADE -SHRA ACROSS
THE EXTREME NW SAT EVENING OTRW MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OMEGA
BLOCK ALOFT GAINS AMPLITUDE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COMPLICATED SCENARIO GIVEN A WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOISTURE
INCREASING UNDER THE SHARP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY
PLAY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AIR HOLDING THE LOW
LEVELS DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY MONDAY WHEN
GUIDANCE BRINGS A FAINT MID LEVEL WAVE UP UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOWLY INCREASING ISENT
LIFT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST/SE. RAIN CHANCES PICK
UP ON MONDAY AS A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE
DEVELOPING WEDGE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS DISORGANIZED FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL RUN WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY GIVEN ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND VEERING ALOFT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S SUNDAY PROVIDED ENOUGH INSOLATION...THEN COOLER PER ONLY 60S
WITHIN THE WEDGE AREA IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS AND 70-75
PERIMETER SOUTH AND SW ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN STORE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND THEN SPIRALS VERY SLOWLY NE
REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP AN INCREASING FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OVER AND
TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DEVELOPING WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY ON WILL GET DEEPLY ENTRENCHED MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY TUESDAY
AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSES AND FORMS A WEAK WAVE
ALONG THE COASTAL WARM FRONT. THIS COOL POOL SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BEFORE
PERHAPS WARM ADVECTION PUNCHES IT OUT LATER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONT ALOFT PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN GOING TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT THEN POSSIBLY A MORE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS
WED WEST AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES EAST PER GFS/EC BLEND. PENDING
LATER RUNS...THIS COULD BRING SOME WATER ISSUES TO SPOTS DESPITE
CURRENT DRYNESS PER LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. ALSO BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTH COULD POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT AS WELL PENDING HOW FAST THE
WEDGE LIFTS OUT BY WED EVENING. OTRW BUMPING POPS FROM CHANCE
MONDAY NIGHT TO LIKELYS TUE AND CATEGORICAL INTO WED AFTERNOON.
ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO FINALLY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU BUT
LACKING MOISTURE BY THEN SO KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS. SHOULD DRY OUT
FURTHER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH ANY ISOLATED SHRA
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR NW AT BEST.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY UNDER THE WEDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COOL
DAY ON TUE AND MUCH OF WED BEFORE SEEING READINGS SURGE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE WED AFTERNOON. THUS PLAN TO STAY WELL BELOW MOS/HPC
ESPCLY ON TUE AND ACROSS THE NORTH WED. SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OR
ABOVE HIGHS THU THEN COOLER POST FRONTAL FRI WITH MOST IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z/6PM. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 22Z/6PM WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...FOR ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...DIMINISHING BY SUNSET SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR
WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE
MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO
PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JC/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST
IMPACTS.
MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS
RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A
LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35
AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN
WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS
ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF
MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT
WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS
BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8
AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL
WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD
DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER
CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
SATURDAY-MONDAY
THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW
OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S.
THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN.
THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA
TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE
LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER
NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD.
MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE
WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED
UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION
REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND
AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET/DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PLAN ON
THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. A RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH VFR VSBY. LOOK FOR
THE WINDS TO SWING MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST SATURDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 14KFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
WELL AFTER 14-15Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS
RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED.
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD
THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A
BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES
SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE
RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT