Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/25/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
507 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... 310 PM CDT SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TODAY...BUT SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...BUT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 20+ DEGREES...THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE A BIT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. AS SUCH THINKING THE FIRST SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AFTER 5PM CST. USED THE LOCAL ARW...RAP...AND HRRR TO CREATE THE POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINKING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM CST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. THE BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING AND THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES FARTHER NORTH...ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO BEGINS OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES OVER IL THURSDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER AND MADE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. RAIN AND SOME STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM SO KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE OTHER HAND COULD BE IMPRESSIVE WITH TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING TO OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LOOKING AT A BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. THE AMPLE WAA WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER TO THE UPPER 60S IF NOT 70 IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO ARND 30 MPH FRIDAY AND AM THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT COLD SINCE MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FEATURE A BAND OF PRECIP FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA. PUT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP SINCE FORCING LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND OF PRECIP ACTUALLY FORMING. AS SUCH KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS KEEP A BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT THE COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE...AND THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. GUIDANCE FEATURES PRECIP MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND OF PRECIP AS WELL...BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON ITS EXACT PATH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREED A BIT MORE ABOUT THE SURFACE LOWS PATH...AND HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN IL TUESDAY. IN TWO WORDS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS CHILLY AND WET. A BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IL BRINGS THE LIFT FOR THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN MULTIPLE VORTICITY STREAMERS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SUPPORT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIPS FAR SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS ALLOWING COOL AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH HIGHS WILL VARY BETWEEN THE LOW 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. LUCKILY OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM NNE TO ESE. * CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS VEERING TO SSE BY TOMORROW...THEN BECOMING VERY GUSTY LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BMD/CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA MAY SKIRT THE IL/WI STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS AND VCSH FOR RFD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20 KT RANGE OT OF THE SSE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION/SPEED THURSDAY. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BMD/CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA. FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR. SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR. SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 219 PM CDT PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND LOCKED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL BE SCOOTED EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOOKS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. DURING THURSDAY THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE LAKE...BUT STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN NEARSHORE AREAS SHOULD LEAD TO 25 TO POSSIBLE 30 KT GUSTS. AS A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... 310 PM CDT SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TODAY...BUT SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARM END TO THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST TO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...BUT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 20+ DEGREES...THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE A BIT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. AS SUCH THINKING THE FIRST SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CWA AFTER 5PM CST. USED THE LOCAL ARW...RAP...AND HRRR TO CREATE THE POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THINKING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY CROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY STREAMER. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM CST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. THE BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING AND THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES FARTHER NORTH...ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO BEGINS OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVES OVER IL THURSDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW PROGRESSING A BIT SLOWER AND MADE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. RAIN AND SOME STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM SO KEPT ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDER. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE OTHER HAND COULD BE IMPRESSIVE WITH TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING TO OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. LOOKING AT A BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. THE AMPLE WAA WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER TO THE UPPER 60S IF NOT 70 IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND EXPECTING PRECIP TO COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO ARND 30 MPH FRIDAY AND AM THINKING THERE COULD BE SOME DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT. THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT COLD SINCE MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS FEATURE A BAND OF PRECIP FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN IL AND NW INDIANA. PUT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP SINCE FORCING LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND OF PRECIP ACTUALLY FORMING. AS SUCH KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS KEEP A BAND OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT THE COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE...AND THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. GUIDANCE FEATURES PRECIP MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND OF PRECIP AS WELL...BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON ITS EXACT PATH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREED A BIT MORE ABOUT THE SURFACE LOWS PATH...AND HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN IL TUESDAY. IN TWO WORDS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS CHILLY AND WET. A BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IL BRINGS THE LIFT FOR THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN MULTIPLE VORTICITY STREAMERS PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SUPPORT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DIPS FAR SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS ALLOWING COOL AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH HIGHS WILL VARY BETWEEN THE LOW 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. LUCKILY OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * VARIABILITY IN THE WINDS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM NNE TO ESE. * CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS VEERING TO SSE BY TOMORROW...THEN BECOMING VERY GUSTY LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA MAY SKIRT THE IL/WI STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS AND VCSH FOR RFD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 20 KT RANGE OT OF THE SSE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION/SPEED THURSDAY. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA. FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR. SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR. SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 219 PM CDT PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND LOCKED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE LAKE WILL BE SCOOTED EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BOOKS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. DURING THURSDAY THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE LAKE...BUT STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN NEARSHORE AREAS SHOULD LEAD TO 25 TO POSSIBLE 30 KT GUSTS. AS A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET LOCKED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ITS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 ...UPDATE TO LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas. At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model soundings at 00z Thursday. A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday. Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation, especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front surges south. Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z. After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 Medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging transitioning eastward across the Western High Plains Friday and into the Central Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low pressure will begin to push ashore into southern California Saturday setting up a southwest flow across the Western High Plains by Saturday afternoon. As a lack of significant low/mid level moisture prevails during this time frame, dry conditions will persist through Saturday afternoon. The potential for thunderstorms returns Saturday evening as the upper level trough begins to lift northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. As the shortwave approaches, a prevailing low level southeasterly flow will continue to draw moisture northward into Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline. Although where the dryline sets up is uncertain this far out, the likelihood for thunderstorm development is good ahead of it as upper level dynamic support becomes more favorable. Severe weather is possible late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precip potential shifts north and east Sunday as the upper level trough lifts northeast across the Western High Plains increasing the potential for dryslotting across southwest Kansas. Temperatures will be above normal Friday as weak upper level ridging moves eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains. A south to southeasterly flow will return to western Kansas as lee side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will draw warmer air north into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C in far southwest Kansas. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) Friday afternoon. The warming trend continues into Saturday as enhanced warm air advection raises H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C) across southwest Kansas. Mid to upper 80s(F) are likely Saturday afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible behind a dryline across extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures will arrive early next week as a cold front sweeps through western Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 46 72 45 84 / 60 0 0 0 GCK 44 71 44 84 / 40 10 0 0 EHA 44 73 45 85 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 45 75 45 86 / 20 0 0 0 HYS 46 72 43 81 / 80 10 0 0 P28 53 75 46 85 / 60 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-045-046- 064>066-077>081-087>090. WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ Thursday FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085. WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ043-044-063-076-086. RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084- 085. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
144 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 ...Updated short term discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas. At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model soundings at 00z Thursday. A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday. Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation, especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front surges south. Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z. After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds. Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday, with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The expected track implies our area could see both a warm sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely. Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around 40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas and a few windy days into the early part of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 46 72 45 82 / 60 0 0 0 GCK 44 73 44 82 / 50 10 0 0 EHA 44 71 45 83 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 45 74 45 84 / 30 0 0 0 HYS 46 73 43 79 / 80 10 0 0 P28 53 72 46 83 / 60 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-043>046- 063>066-076>081-086>090. RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084- 085. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 08Z water vapor shows a longwave trough moving into the Rockies with a mid level ridge axis over the Great Plains. At the surface, obs shows ridging along the upper and middle MS river valley with a lee trough over WY and CO deepening. Radar shows scattered shower activity gradually expanding in coverage over the past couple hours. The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide on the 305K surface, which seems to line up with where the elevated showers are developing, persisting into the early afternoon. With the HRRR, RAP and NAM all showing this scattered activity going on through the morning, have increased pops and will include coverage wording in the forecast. Forecast soundings show little if any instability for this activity to work with so would anticipate thunder to remain relatively isolated this morning. Meanwhile the models continue to show some surface based instability developing this afternoon across north central KS ahead of a Pacific cold front. As the upper shortwave moves out across the plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary. This activity is expected to quickly evolve into a linear system and move across the forecast area overnight. Initially there may be some hail and damaging wind threat as the line begins moving into north central KS. And there remains a large amount of low level bulk shear progged by the NAM. But the NAM also develops quite a lot of CIN suggesting the line of storms may be driven more by the front and not necessarily persisting on instability ahead of the boundary. So the expectation is that storm intensity will diminish as the storms move into eastern KS. In any case, good forcing from the shortwave and steep mid level lapse rates should be good enough for much of not all of the forecast to see rain overnight and will maintain categorical POPs tonight. Do not plan to change the wind advisory issued earlier. The latest RAP continues to show a strengthening pressure gradient over south central NEB and north central KS that may be strong enough for sustained winds of 30 mph for a brief period. Otherwise the NAM and GFS are more marginal with the pressure gradient and do not produce as strong of winds. For highs today, am a little concerned the scattered precip and cloud cover could hold temps down especially over northeast KS where this is likely to hang on longer into the afternoon. So tweaked temps down a degree or two over northeast zones. Although there may still be enough mixing and insolation across north central KS for highs to reach around 80. With rain and some cold air advection behind the front tonight, trended min temps Thursday morning down towards the MOS consensus of lower 50s in north central KS to the mid and upper 50s across eastern KS. If the front moves through a little quicker, lows in the east are likely to be to warm. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 Cold front will continue to move southeastward and out of the far southeast corner by mid morning on Thursday as the upper trough axis swings through CWA. Will therefore continue a steady decline in precipitation chances over the eastern CWA through the morning hours and a dry afternoon forecast. Although the day may start out wet and cloudy early...decreasing clouds and backing low level winds will aid in temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s for highs. Winds back around to light southwesterly overnight with lows in the 40s before increasing through the day Friday with mostly sunny skies. Have therefore edged high temperatures upwards slightly to around 80 in many areas. Elevated moisture return and weak instability slowly increase late Friday night/early Saturday morning across the southern CWA and have maintained low chances for thunderstorms. A better chance for thunderstorms will exist with the deeper moisture and instability later in the day into early Sunday as the next strong shortwave trough digs into the desert southwest and ejects out into the central high plains. Thunderstorms may remain elevated until an initial capping inversion is overcome for surface based storms to develop. Either way...strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday into Sunday ahead of an expected dry slot as the system rotates out into the plains and occludes. It will then slow and shift east and southeastward into the MS river valley with a lingering chance for showers in its wake as much cooler air filters into the area from the north for Monday and especially Tuesday. Highs in the 70s on Saturday will lower into the low to mid 60s for Monday...then the 50s for Tuesday. Lows by Wednesday morning could fall into the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 The scattered showers and isolated thunder has remained north of the taf sites although kept VCSH for the showers moving eastward from central KS. VFR should prevail through most of the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms will develop into a line over north central KS and move eastward this evening. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the thunderstorms as to when to affect the taf sites. This timing will likely need adjustments later today. Storms could cause brief IFR conditions with heavier rainfall. Additional rain showers will develop along and behind a cold front passing through the area. Widespread showers should exit tomorrow morning with improving ceilings towards the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008-009-020-021- 034-035. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...63 AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 08Z water vapor shows a longwave trough moving into the Rockies with a mid level ridge axis over the Great Plains. At the surface, obs shows ridging along the upper and middle MS river valley with a lee trough over WY and CO deepening. Radar shows scattered shower activity gradually expanding in coverage over the past couple hours. The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide on the 305K surface, which seems to line up with where the elevated showers are developing, persisting into the early afternoon. With the HRRR, RAP and NAM all showing this scattered activity going on through the morning, have increased pops and will include coverage wording in the forecast. Forecast soundings show little if any instability for this activity to work with so would anticipate thunder to remain relatively isolated this morning. Meanwhile the models continue to show some surface based instability developing this afternoon across north central KS ahead of a Pacific cold front. As the upper shortwave moves out across the plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary. This activity is expected to quickly evolve into a linear system and move across the forecast area overnight. Initially there may be some hail and damaging wind threat as the line begins moving into north central KS. And there remains a large amount of low level bulk shear progged by the NAM. But the NAM also develops quite a lot of CIN suggesting the line of storms may be driven more by the front and not necessarily persisting on instability ahead of the boundary. So the expectation is that storm intensity will diminish as the storms move into eastern KS. In any case, good forcing from the shortwave and steep mid level lapse rates should be good enough for much of not all of the forecast to see rain overnight and will maintain categorical POPs tonight. Do not plan to change the wind advisory issued earlier. The latest RAP continues to show a strengthening pressure gradient over south central NEB and north central KS that may be strong enough for sustained winds of 30 mph for a brief period. Otherwise the NAM and GFS are more marginal with the pressure gradient and do not produce as strong of winds. For highs today, am a little concerned the scattered precip and cloud cover could hold temps down especially over northeast KS where this is likely to hang on longer into the afternoon. So tweaked temps down a degree or two over northeast zones. Although there may still be enough mixing and insolation across north central KS for highs to reach around 80. With rain and some cold air advection behind the front tonight, trended min temps Thursday morning down towards the MOS consensus of lower 50s in north central KS to the mid and upper 50s across eastern KS. If the front moves through a little quicker, lows in the east are likely to be to warm. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 Cold front will continue to move southeastward and out of the far southeast corner by mid morning on Thursday as the upper trough axis swings through CWA. Will therefore continue a steady decline in precipitation chances over the eastern CWA through the morning hours and a dry afternoon forecast. Although the day may start out wet and cloudy early...decreasing clouds and backing low level winds will aid in temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s for highs. Winds back around to light southwesterly overnight with lows in the 40s before increasing through the day Friday with mostly sunny skies. Have therefore edged high temperatures upwards slightly to around 80 in many areas. Elevated moisture return and weak instability slowly increase late Friday night/early Saturday morning across the southern CWA and have maintained low chances for thunderstorms. A better chance for thunderstorms will exist with the deeper moisture and instability later in the day into early Sunday as the next strong shortwave trough digs into the desert southwest and ejects out into the central high plains. Thunderstorms may remain elevated until an initial capping inversion is overcome for surface based storms to develop. Either way...strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday into Sunday ahead of an expected dry slot as the system rotates out into the plains and occludes. It will then slow and shift east and southeastward into the MS river valley with a lingering chance for showers in its wake as much cooler air filters into the area from the north for Monday and especially Tuesday. Highs in the 70s on Saturday will lower into the low to mid 60s for Monday...then the 50s for Tuesday. Lows by Wednesday morning could fall into the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning) Issued at 609 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide within the warm air advection pattern continuing into the early afternoon. Regional radars are hinting at more elevated showers starting to form over southwest KS. Therefore will carry -SHRA until 19Z when the moisture advection and isentropic lift diminish. Low level moisture advection remains rather modest so even with the -SHRA expect VFR conditions to prevail until the front moves through with TSRA. This looks to occur at the terminals after 06Z based on the RAP and NAM forecasts. Have MVFR CIGS and VSBY as the TSRA pass through. Confidence in timing the ending and beginning of precip is average and may need to be adjusted plus or minus a hour or so. Otherwise expect increasing south and southeasterly winds through the morning as the pressure gradient strengthens. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...63 AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
343 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 08Z water vapor shows a longwave trough moving into the Rockies with a mid level ridge axis over the Great Plains. At the surface, obs shows ridging along the upper and middle MS river valley with a lee trough over WY and CO deepening. Radar shows scattered shower activity gradually expanding in coverage over the past couple hours. The RAP and NAM show isentropic upglide on the 305K surface, which seems to line up with where the elevated showers are developing, persisting into the early afternoon. With the HRRR, RAP and NAM all showing this scattered activity going on through the morning, have increased pops and will include coverage wording in the forecast. Forecast soundings show little if any instability for this activity to work with so would anticipate thunder to remain relatively isolated this morning. Meanwhile the models continue to show some surface based instability developing this afternoon across north central KS ahead of a Pacific cold front. As the upper shortwave moves out across the plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary. This activity is expected to quickly evolve into a linear system and move across the forecast area overnight. Initially there may be some hail and damaging wind threat as the line begins moving into north central KS. And there remains a large amount of low level bulk shear progged by the NAM. But the NAM also develops quite a lot of CIN suggesting the line of storms may be driven more by the front and not necessarily persisting on instability ahead of the boundary. So the expectation is that storm intensity will diminish as the storms move into eastern KS. In any case, good forcing from the shortwave and steep mid level lapse rates should be good enough for much of not all of the forecast to see rain overnight and will maintain categorical POPs tonight. Do not plan to change the wind advisory issued earlier. The latest RAP continues to show a strengthening pressure gradient over south central NEB and north central KS that may be strong enough for sustained winds of 30 mph for a brief period. Otherwise the NAM and GFS are more marginal with the pressure gradient and do not produce as strong of winds. For highs today, am a little concerned the scattered precip and cloud cover could hold temps down especially over northeast KS where this is likely to hang on longer into the afternoon. So tweaked temps down a degree or two over northeast zones. Although there may still be enough mixing and insolation across north central KS for highs to reach around 80. With rain and some cold air advection behind the front tonight, trended min temps Thursday morning down towards the MOS consensus of lower 50s in north central KS to the mid and upper 50s across eastern KS. If the front moves through a little quicker, lows in the east are likely to be to warm. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 Cold front will continue to move southeastward and out of the far southeast corner by mid morning on Thursday as the upper trough axis swings through cwa. Will therefore continue a steady decline in precipitation chances over the eastern cwa through the morning hours and a dry afternoon fcst. Although the day may start out wet and cloudy early...decreasing clouds and backing llvl winds will aid in temperatures rising back into the low to mid 70s for highs. Winds back around to light southwesterly overnight with lows in the 40s before increasing through the day Friday with mostly sunny skies. Have therefore edged high temperatures upwards slightly to around 80 in many areas. Elevated moisture return and weak instability slowly increase late Friday night/early Saturday morning across the southern cwa and have maintained low chances for thunderstorms. A better chance for thunderstorms will exist with the deeper moisture and instability later in the day into early Sunday as the next strong shortwave trough digs into the desert southwest and ejects out into the central high plains. Thunderstorms may remain elevated until an initial capping inversion is overcome for surface based storms to develop. Either way...strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday into Sunday ahead of an expected dry slot as the system rotates out into the plains and occludes. It will then slow and shift east and southeastward into the MS river valley with a lingering chance for showers in its wake as much cooler air filters into the area from the north for Monday and especially Tuesday. Highs in the 70s on Saturday will lower into the low to mid 60s for Monday...then the 50s for Tuesday. Lows by Wednesday morning could fall into the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 With area of showers making its way through western Kansas and recent new development ahead of it, will keep VCSH nearly as before. Some suggestions of a least light continued activity through much of the day and there are weak returns on upstream, but coverage and impacts look too low for inclusion. More robust convection will likely hold off until after this forecast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...63 AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
928 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 928 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 Updated forecast to account for precipitation trends. A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to spread across the forecast area this evening. The entire region should have experienced a good soaking rain by midnight. Also kept higher rain chances over the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area late this evening through the early pre-dawn hours Friday to account for greater elevated instability associated with the passing mid level trough. With the low levels slow to moisten up and deep layer shear lacking, severe storms have not materialized. The threat has all but ended at this time, though an isolated strong storm still cannot be completely discounted. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening. Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating factor for this event. The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It appears as though the convection will become more organized as it moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z. Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the better low-level moisture will be located. The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity. The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday, but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much difference. As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday. Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous forecast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that time frame. Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available instability, severe weather is possible into the evening. From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue. There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to depart. && .AVIATION... Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 12-13Z... otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 00-03Z and between 03-07Z at KEVV/KOWB. Southerly winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest during the night and maintain those speeds, then around to the northwest between 11-13Z and decrease to aob 15 knots. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
952 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 Compact upper vorticity maximum is now transversing Missouri this evening. In advance of the wave, arcing area of convection now is passing through the Ohio River/Mississippi River confluence region and into western KY. Based on the latest radar imagery, this activity should be approaching our western counties by 04Z and into the I-65 corridor by 06Z...reaching the I-75 corridor by 09-10Z. Overall, the convection has been steadily weakening as the convection has been running into a more stable and less moist environment. Nonetheless, showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most areas overnight. Once the arc of convection passes, we`ll see a brief pause in the rainfall then more scattered showers are likely as the actual vorticity maximum passes overhead, just before sunrise. Severe weather threat looks very low at this time as the dynamics and instability are not all that impressive. Brief heavy rains and some gusty winds will be possible as the storms move through the region overnight. The current forecast has this well covered quite well. Only some minor adjustments to precipitation timing was made with this evening`s update. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 In the near term, afternoon visible satellite imagery shows high level cirrus clouds progressing northeast across central KY and southern IN, in advance of a shortwave to our west, with surface temperatures warming steadily to near 70 east and lower and mid 70s west. Temperatures will continue to rise a couple/few more degrees through late afternoon before falling back this evening. Pronounced shortwave over KS/OK at this time will move steadily east tonight accompanied by an increase in low-level moisture and southerly winds, which will effectively limit/end our evening fall in surface temperatures overnight. Surface winds should become gusty overnight. Currently, this system is causing widespread convective development from western MO to eastern OK and AR. Models are in good agreement bringing these storms in a band into central KY and southern IN late this evening and overnight. The 15z HRRR and 12z in-house mesoscale models bring the leading edge of the convection to our western forecast area border around 04 UTC. Looking at model soundings, boundary layer cools this evening but steep lapse rates and elevated instability remain if lifting a parcel from about 900-950 mb. This will support continuation of convection as axis of precipitation moves across our area, especially western part of forecast area. With increasing winds at 925 and 850 mb, there is a chance that greater momentum air could mix down to surface and create a few strong wind gusts with the strongest cells (again, more likely in western sections), but presence of weak-to-moderate nocturnal boundary layer inversion should keep strongest winds aloft, unable to penetrate to surface. After this band passes, there could be a brief lull in precip, but models bring another area of moisture through from early to mid morning (from west to east) associated with the actual mid-level trough axis and surface front. As a result, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during that time, with models again indicating presence of some instability. Front passes through the area first half of Friday. Winds behind the boundary will become quite gusty from the west-northwest around 30 mph. Morning clouds and lingering showers will move off to the east followed quickly by a clearing trend. Highs Friday afternoon should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, depending on how rapdily skies clear. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows again down in the 40s in most locations. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 Saturday - Sunday... Heights will rise through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge axis approaches and then slides through. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across southern Ohio and into central IN, stalling by Saturday evening as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Technically, it would be a back door cold front if it were to make progress through the area, but it looks to stall just to our north. Either way, the boundary will be moisture starved and we should stay on the warm side of it. This will lead to a dry and warm weekend. Expect highs on Saturday in the upper 70s north to low 80s south. Lows Saturday night should dip into the lower 50s. Should start to see an gradual increase in mid and upper level clouds on Sunday as the ridge axis starts to slide east, however 1000-850 thicknesses and 850 mb temps will support a 2-3 degree increase from Saturday. Therefore, have gone with mostly lower 80s on Sunday. A few Bluegrass or southern IN counties may stay confined to upper 70s. Will continue to leave the slightest of chances for a shower or storm in our far western tier or two of counties late Sunday afternoon, however bulk of precip will not arrive until Sunday night onward. Sunday Night - Tuesday... By Sunday night, blocking upper ridge axis will be off to our east with an impressive closed upper low over the central Plains. Southwesterly flow through a deep layer will overspread the Ohio Valley, including a 40 knot low level jet nosing in. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be just off to our northeast with expansive mid level deformation aloft. By dawn on Monday, expect scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms mainly along and west of I-65. These likely shower and t-storm chances will then encompass the entire CWA on Monday. Tough to tell how well we destabilize in this environment, but it appears that a stronger to possibly severe storm threat will be conditional upon destabilization, especially along and west of I-65. Another threat of stronger to severe storms may move in later Monday night into early Tuesday as the exit region of another impulse rotating around the upper low ejects out of the southern Plains. Again, strength of storms would be conditional upon destabilization. Scattered to numerous showers and storms could then plague the area again later Tuesday afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor threat for stronger storms to start the new work week, but will also keep an eye on the threat for periods of heavy rain and flooding. With repeated rounds of t-storms possible and PWATs jumping up around 2 std deviations above normal for this time of year, flooding could become a concern. Tough to judge temperatures during this time, solid reading in the 70s seem reasonable each day on the warm side of the boundary and warm advective flow. Obviously, convection will be the deciding factor. Lows will be mild during this time, at least in the low 60s in most spots. Tuesday Night - Thursday... We begin to transition to a cooler period by the middle and end of the week as the wobbling upper low and its associated surface reflection slide into the Midwest. Precipitation chances look to become more scattered in nature during this time with thunder chances becoming less likely. These days will likely not be wash-outs, but will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler. Look for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s and lows in the low and mid 40s by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 VFR conditions will prevail for the early part of the evening hours and then we should see things deteriorate after 25/04Z. Current data suggests that activity over Missouri and Arkansas will continue to push eastward late tonight and early Friday morning. The storms will be running into a drier and somewhat more stable airmass late tonight. Nonetheless, expect conditions to drop to MVFR late tonight at the terminals as the convection spreads through the region. At this time, we expect the best window of convection to affect KBWG between 25/04-08Z, KSDF between 25/06-09Z and KLEX between 25/07-11Z. After the convective line swings through, we`ll see winds shift around to the southwest with scattered showers continuing through the pre-dawn and early morning hours on Friday. Winds look to shift to the west/west-northwest after 25/15Z at KBWG/KSDF and after 25/17Z at KLEX. Winds will be gusty Friday afternoon with sustained speeds of 12-15kt and gusts up to 25kts at times. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....TWF Long Term......BJS Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
621 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening. Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating factor for this event. The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It appears as though the convection will become more organized as it moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z. Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the better low-level moisture will be located. The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity. The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday, but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much difference. As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday. Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous forecast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that time frame. Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available instability, severe weather is possible into the evening. From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue. There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to depart. && .AVIATION... Issued at 607 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 12-13Z ...otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 00-03Z and between 03-07Z at KEVV/KOWB. Southerly winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest during the night and maintain those speeds, then around to the northwest between 11-13Z and decrease to aob 15 knots. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 In the near term, afternoon visible satellite imagery shows high level cirrus clouds progressing northeast across central KY and southern IN, in advance of a shortwave to our west, with surface temperatures warming steadily to near 70 east and lower and mid 70s west. Temperatures will continue to rise a couple/few more degrees through late afternoon before falling back this evening. Pronounced shortwave over KS/OK at this time will move steadily east tonight accompanied by an increase in low-level moisture and southerly winds, which will effectively limit/end our evening fall in surface temperatures overnight. Surface winds should become gusty overnight. Currently, this system is causing widespread convective development from western MO to eastern OK and AR. Models are in good agreement bringing these storms in a band into central KY and southern IN late this evening and overnight. The 15z HRRR and 12z in-house mesoscale models bring the leading edge of the convection to our western forecast area border around 04 UTC. Looking at model soundings, boundary layer cools this evening but steep lapse rates and elevated instability remain if lifting a parcel from about 900-950 mb. This will support continuation of convection as axis of precipitation moves across our area, especially western part of forecast area. With increasing winds at 925 and 850 mb, there is a chance that greater momentum air could mix down to surface and create a few strong wind gusts with the strongest cells (again, more likely in western sections), but presence of weak-to-moderate nocturnal boundary layer inversion should keep strongest winds aloft, unable to penetrate to surface. After this band passes, there could be a brief lull in precip, but models bring another area of moisture through from early to mid morning (from west to east) associated with the actual mid-level trough axis and surface front. As a result, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during that time, with models again indicating presence of some instability. Front passes through the area first half of Friday. Winds behind the boundary will become quite gusty from the west-northwest around 30 mph. Morning clouds and lingering showers will move off to the east followed quickly by a clearing trend. Highs Friday afternoon should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, depending on how rapdily skies clear. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows again down in the 40s in most locations. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 Saturday - Sunday... Heights will rise through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge axis approaches and then slides through. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across southern Ohio and into central IN, stalling by Saturday evening as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Technically, it would be a back door cold front if it were to make progress through the area, but it looks to stall just to our north. Either way, the boundary will be moisture starved and we should stay on the warm side of it. This will lead to a dry and warm weekend. Expect highs on Saturday in the upper 70s north to low 80s south. Lows Saturday night should dip into the lower 50s. Should start to see an gradual increase in mid and upper level clouds on Sunday as the ridge axis starts to slide east, however 1000-850 thicknesses and 850 mb temps will support a 2-3 degree increase from Saturday. Therefore, have gone with mostly lower 80s on Sunday. A few Bluegrass or southern IN counties may stay confined to upper 70s. Will continue to leave the slightest of chances for a shower or storm in our far western tier or two of counties late Sunday afternoon, however bulk of precip will not arrive until Sunday night onward. Sunday Night - Tuesday... By Sunday night, blocking upper ridge axis will be off to our east with an impressive closed upper low over the central Plains. Southwesterly flow through a deep layer will overspread the Ohio Valley, including a 40 knot low level jet nosing in. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be just off to our northeast with expansive mid level deformation aloft. By dawn on Monday, expect scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms mainly along and west of I-65. These likely shower and t-storm chances will then encompass the entire CWA on Monday. Tough to tell how well we destabilize in this environment, but it appears that a stronger to possibly severe storm threat will be conditional upon destabilization, especially along and west of I-65. Another threat of stronger to severe storms may move in later Monday night into early Tuesday as the exit region of another impulse rotating around the upper low ejects out of the southern Plains. Again, strength of storms would be conditional upon destabilization. Scattered to numerous showers and storms could then plague the area again later Tuesday afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor threat for stronger storms to start the new work week, but will also keep an eye on the threat for periods of heavy rain and flooding. With repeated rounds of t-storms possible and PWATs jumping up around 2 std deviations above normal for this time of year, flooding could become a concern. Tough to judge temperatures during this time, solid reading in the 70s seem reasonable each day on the warm side of the boundary and warm advective flow. Obviously, convection will be the deciding factor. Lows will be mild during this time, at least in the low 60s in most spots. Tuesday Night - Thursday... We begin to transition to a cooler period by the middle and end of the week as the wobbling upper low and its associated surface reflection slide into the Midwest. Precipitation chances look to become more scattered in nature during this time with thunder chances becoming less likely. These days will likely not be wash-outs, but will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler. Look for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s and lows in the low and mid 40s by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 VFR conditions will prevail for the early part of the evening hours and then we should see things deteriorate after 25/04Z. Current data suggests that activity over Missouri and Arkansas will continue to push eastward late tonight and early Friday morning. The storms will be running into a drier and somewhat more stable airmass late tonight. Nonetheless, expect conditions to drop to MVFR late tonight at the terminals as the convection spreads through the region. At this time, we expect the best window of convection to affect KBWG between 25/04-08Z, KSDF between 25/06-09Z and KLEX between 25/07-11Z. After the convective line swings through, we`ll see winds shift around to the southwest with scattered showers continuing through the pre-dawn and early morning hours on Friday. Winds look to shift to the west/west-northwest after 25/15Z at KBWG/KSDF and after 25/17Z at KLEX. Winds will be gusty Friday afternoon with sustained speeds of 12-15kt and gusts up to 25kts at times. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........TWF Long Term.........BJS Aviation..........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1023 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT STETCHES FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW OVER MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. STRONG CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 800 MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING. ACCORDINGLY WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FOR MUCH OF TDA. CAA PATTERN HAS PRODUCED STRATOCU AS MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FIELD. UPDATED SKY COVER FCST GRIDS USING THE RH FIELD AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER FROM THE RAP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EVOLUTION OF STRATOCU TDA. PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE CLOUDS ERODE FROM S TO N INTO THE AFTN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TO THE UPPER 50S...WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON THE LONGEST. OTHERWISE...OFFICIAL MAX TEMP FCST IN LOW TO MID 60S FALLS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY TNGT... WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT... SINCE THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND SHEN VLY WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MAY REACH INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY TDA FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. NW WINDS HAVE QUICKLY PICKED UP THIS MRNG WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT 13Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE TO CONTINUE THRU AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVE. BKN STRATOCU FIELD BETWEEN 4-5 KFT THIS MRNG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CHO BEFORE ERODING FROM S TO N THIS AFTN.NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TNGT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AT DCA-BWI-MTN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. && .MARINE... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD 20-30 KT WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TDA. MIXING WILL DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTN BUT MODELS SHOW THE WIND FIELD AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXING LAYER WEAKENING A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING A FEW HRS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HIGH END SCA WINDS FAVORED. SCA CONTINUES TNGT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MID ATLC REGION FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TDA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. MRNG UPDATE TO THE FCST KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW PREV FCST BUT DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC. PAST STUDIES HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SFC DEWPOINTS DURING THE PEAK HEATINGS HRS IN SITUATIONS LIKE TDA. 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA. FUEL MOISTURE OBS YDA WERE BETWEEN 5-8 PERCENT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER THE FUEL MOISTURE. WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG. HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001. MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007- 009>011-013-014-016>018-502. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018. VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031- 036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054. WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053- 055-502-504-506. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL/JRK NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS SHORT TERM...BJL LONG TERM...BJL/GMS AVIATION...JRK/BJL MARINE...JRK/BJL FIRE WEATHER...JRK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CURVING NW AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS. END RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FANNING E INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROF. DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CHILL. TEMPS ARE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S AWAY FROM MARINE COOLING. ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. DEEP MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO CAUSED SFC DWPTS TO FALL AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS AT SOME LOCATIONS. SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SPREADS E AHEAD OF THE TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL ANTECEDANT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (NOTE THE VERY DRY AIR SAMPLED ON REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS)...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INITIAL NNW-SSE ORIENTED PCPN BAND CURRENTLY OVER MN TO SEE HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT BATTLES THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL UTILIZE MOSTLY SCHC POPS OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH CHC NEAR KIWD. PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE RAIN...BUT WITH DRY AIR/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMITED DEPTH OF ABOVE 0C WETBULB TEMPS...THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW. AT 12Z THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WRN PLAINS. WITHIN THE TROF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH SRN SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THRU THE DAY...THE NRN WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS A LITTLE S OF E WHILE THE SRN PLAINS WAVE TRACKS SLIGHTLY N OF E. AS THE TROF SHARPENS UP/DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING E...RIBBON OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AVBL (MIXING RATIOS 4-5G/KG ADVECTING INTO UPPER MI AROUND 750MB)...DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. FOR MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE SHOWN THERMAL PROFILES ON THE BORDER FOR RAIN/SNOW...AND THAT HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH IS A PROBLEM...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN RATES WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM DICKINSON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...NEAR SFC E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA...AIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW AN EXPANSION OF SNOW PTYPE AS HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS NE THU AFTN ALONG WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 33/34F. DETERMINING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS A CHALLENGE. SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL ON ROADWAYS UNLESS HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. ON GROUND SURFACES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 3 POSSIBLE FROM WRN DICKINSON INTO GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 WET SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SYSTEM...AS THAT DICTATES THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TROUGH IS FORECAST ARRIVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER LOW CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC TROUGH IS IN BTWN THE TWO LOWS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH SFC LOW IS STRONGER. TREND WAS EMERGING IN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT H85/H7/H5 WOULD BE THE STRONGER SECTION AND THAT TROUGH WOULD REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE WHICH RESULTED IN LESS PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY INTO FRIDAY. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF CLOSED OFF IDEA WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH THE UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY... SHOWING CLOSED OFF H5 LOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR AT 18Z ON FRIDAY WITH CLOSED OFF H7/H85 AND SFC LOWS OVER CNTRL CWA AT THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP LINGERING OVER NW CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME THING...BUT IS NOW JOINED BY GFS AND GEM-NH... REPRESENTING A SHIFT BACK TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING WITH THE 12Z RUN ON TUESDAY. SWITCH SHOWS UP IN GFS RUN TOTAL QPF WITH AREAS OF WESTERN CWA NOW SEEING WELL OVER AN INCH WHERAS PAST RUNS WERE MORE IN THE 0.50-1.00 RANGE. OVERALL THE THEME OFFERED UP BY THE 12Z MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR A LONGER DURATION IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DIVING INTO THE SPECIFICS...INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING IS SUPPORTED IN UPPER LEVELS BY H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H3-H25 DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AS JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING IS DUE MAINLY TO H925-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6G/KG ON THE 290K SFC /H8-H75/ AND AT LEAST 4G/KG ON THE 300K SFC /NEAR H7/. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COME VIA PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF MAINLY THE H85 LOW. NAM WOULD SUGGEST TROWAL PRECIP ENHANCEMENT COULD IMPACT KEWEENAW BASED ON THE THETA-E AT THE H65-H6 LAYER. FOR THE FORECAST...WILL TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM...BUT KEEP HEAVIER QPF ANCHORED IN THE 00Z-06Z FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN H7 MIXING RATIOS TOWARD 4G/KG ARE PRESENT. AFTER THAT WILL HEAD TOWARD MORE TONED DOWN QPF FM THE UKMET/ECMWF AND SOMEWHAT THE NAM /SUGGESTING AROUND 0.30 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITHIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...VERSUS THE WETTER GFS AND GEM-NH. PTYPE AND ULTIMATELY SNOW AMOUNTS...REMAINS AN ISSUE. HOWEVER TREND MAY BE SIGNALING MOSTLY SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF IMT TO MQT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FM NAM ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR 0C THROUGH H8 AT IMT AND IWD...BUT ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH IN THIS LAYER AT CMX AND MQT FOR SNOW. FARTHER EAST...AT MNM/ESC/P53 THE WARM LAYER IS TO H95/1000FT AGL OR HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD LOWER ENOUGH BLO 1000FT AGL TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A TURNOVER TO ONLY SNOW BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. AT ERY...COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE MAINLY SNOW LIKELY DEPENDING LARGELY ON SFC TEMPS. THOUGH THE INSOLATION AND BLYR WARMING MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW INITIALLY LATER THURSDAY AFTN WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...INCREASING SNOW RATES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING. SREF OUTPUT BASED ON EXPECTED MODEL SKIN TEMPS INDICATES THAT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START ACCUMLATING ON ROADS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL RATES PUSH OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CNTRL CWA TO EXCEED 6 INCHES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z MODELS AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE GOING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS EAST WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR SEEING ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR A WARNING FOR AREAS FROM IRON TO MARQUETTE COUNTIES /CURRENTLY HAVE 4-7 INCHES FALLING MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY/...AND POSSIBLY OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WILL KEEP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS ATTM. MID SHIFT CAN ASSESS AGAIN AND DETERMINE WHETHER A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SLOWER/MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY EVENING BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H8 WITH TEMPS WITHIN H85 THERMAL TROUGH TOWARD -10C TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE BIGGER FACTOR. SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...BUT ENE-NE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH KEEPS THE COOL AIR LOCKED IN. MIXING TO H9 ALONG THE BORDER SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. REST OF THE EXTENDED...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR AT H85 HOLDS ITS OWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD BE A PERIOD IN THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THOUGH...THINKING THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT WAY NOW IT APPEARS. CUTOFF LOW COULD MAKE RUN ACROSS UPPER LAKES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THAT IS WHEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. STAYING COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHEN THERE ARE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS. LEANED ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER AT THE LOW LEVELS THRU TONIGHT...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PROBABLY REACH KIWD EARLY THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WILL WORK TO SLOW E/NE PROGRESSION OF PCPN. BY LATE MORNING...PCPN IS LIKELY AT KIWD ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. PCPN (SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN) SHOULD BE CLOSE TO KCMX/KSAW BY 18Z AND WILL CERTAINLY BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW IS TRENDING STRONGER...SO EAST WINDS MAY REACH 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTN AFTER THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. POSSIBLE THAT SOME GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONGER EAST WINDS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE ABOVE BANKFUL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. NEITHER OF THESE RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.70-1.25 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLA HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN. FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR KIWD. CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS... BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR 23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT. ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER. WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PCPN ON THU INTO EARLY FRI AS WELL AS PTYPE. AT 12Z THU...THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV WL BE LOCATED NEAR THE CNDN BORDER WITH MONTANA WHILE THE SRN DISTUBANCE SHIFTS E INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES CENTERS NEARBY. DESPITE THE SEPARATION BTWN THE INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS...MODEL FCST RH FIELDS SHOW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AREA OF HIER RH EXTENDING FM MN INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER OVERAL SE FLOW TO THE E OF LARGER SCALE LO PRES TROF IN THE PLAINS. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THIS BAND AT THE LATITUDE OF UPR MI IS FCST TO BE ABOUT 4 G/KG...BOOSTED BY H85 S WINDS FCST UP TO 35-50 KTS E OF THE LARGER SCALE TROF AXIS. SO EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SRN SHRTWV WL REMAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE NRN DISTURBANCE AND THAT ONLY THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV WL IMPACT THE CWA AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE TO THE E THRU FRI... THERE WL BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBL FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY PCPN OVER UPR MI AS THESE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE UPR LKS RESPECTIVELY BY 12Z FRI. DIFFLUENT H3 FLOW/SHARP H4-2 DVGC E OF THE ARPCHG NRN SHRTWV WL ALSO ACT TO ENHANCE PCPN RATES OVER THE CWA. THE 00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE THE NRN SHRTWV WL TRACK THRU CENTRAL UPR MI...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOST LIKELY TO THE N OF THE H85-7-5 LO TRACK FM ABOUT IRONWOOD/ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE BEFORE THE PCPN SLOWLY DIMNISHES ON FRI WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV INTO SE ONTARIO. BUT THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 22/12Z AND 23/00Z ECMWF SHOW A FARTHER N TRACK FOR THE NRN SHRTWV AND H85-7 LO ACRS THE NRN KEWEENAW...WITH EARLIER DRY SLOTTING BY 06Z-12Z FRI AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR HEAVIER PCPN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT SEEMS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE NCEP MODELS. 24 HR PCPN TOTALS THRU 12Z FRI SHOWN BY THE NCEP MODELS RANGE FM 0.65-1.10 INCH...LEAST OVER THE SE AND GREATEST OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO FCST TRACK. IN CONTRAST...THE 22/12Z ECWMF SHOWED 24 HR PCPN RANGING FM 0.50 INCH OVER THE SE TO 0.75 INCH OVER THE KEWEENAW. A MAJOR CONCERN THIS LATE IN THE SEASON IS ON PTYPE AND HOW SFC TEMPS WL IMPACT SN ACCUM RATES. MODELS SHOW PCPN ARRIVING W-E ON THU...REACHING NEWBERRY BY LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PCPN WL BE ARRIVING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...WHEN H100-85 THKNS ARE FCST IN THE 1305-1310M RANGE...SUSPECT THE PCPN WL START AS RA OR A RA/SN MIX OVER THE HIER TERRAIN WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE INITALLY DRY LLVL AIR. EVEN WHERE SN IS MIXED IN WITH THE PCPN...EXPECT LTL IF ANY SN ACCUMULATION ON WARMER SFCS LIKE ROADS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DYNAMIC COOLING WL ALLOW THE PCPN TO CHG TO PRIMARILY SN BY 00Z FRI AS H100-85 THKNS FALL TO 1295-1305M...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS TO THE N OF THE H85 LO TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM NEAR SFC TEMPS...A HI AND THIN DGZ WL ALSO REDUCE SN/WATER RATIOS AND MAKE THIS SN PARTICULARLY WET AND HEAVY. BEST BET ATTM IS FOR SN TOTALS TO REACH 6 TO PERHAPS 8 INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW GIVEN THE MORE FVRBL LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE H85-7 LO TRACK. OTHER HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA MAY SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE FCST H85-7 LO TRACK ARGUES FOR MAINLY RA AND LTL SN ACCUM OVER THE SE PORTION OF UPR MI. SUSPECT FUTURE SHIFTS WL NEED TO ISSUE WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE HIER TERRAIN OF NW UPR MI. GIVEN THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON SHRTWV LO TRACKS AND THE IMPACT OF TEMPS ON SN ACCUM RATES FOR A MAINLY 4TH PERIOD SN FALL...OPTED TO UPDATE GOING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. FRI NGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV DIVING ESEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND DEPARTING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME LGT SN/RA TO THE CWA. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND GENERATES ANOTERH 0.50 INCH OF PCPN NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THIS STRONGER/WETTER SCENARIO SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE HGT RISES/DRYING THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER UPR MI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INITIAL STRONGER NRN SHRTWV. EXTENDED...THE NW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG BLDG IN THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO PRES AND TO THE S OF SPRAWLING HI PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA ARE FCST TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS STARTING ON SAT. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING NE OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING A RETURN OF PCPN AS EARLY AS SUN NGTCONSIDERING THIS HUDSON BAY HI AND THE LIKELY DRY NNE FEED OF DRY AIR THAT WL IMPACT THE AREA/CLIMATOLOGY OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES SYSTEMS IN SPRING...OPTED TO CUT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS AND KEEP THE FCST DRY THRU MON. TEMPS WL AVG BLO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO OUR E DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EXIT E OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM FROM S CANADA THROUGH THE S PLAINS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW VFR. A LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 40KTS AROUND 2KFT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AT IWD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF LLWS AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE THE SFC LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT CMX AND SAW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS LEADING TO GREATLY REDUCED SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER UPR MI. BUT SINCE RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY. LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE BEEN ALSTON AND CHASSELL ON THE STURGEON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS ON THE PAINT RIVER...AND HARVEY ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER. SINCE CHILLY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF SHOULD DIMINISH AND PREVENT THESE RIVERS FROM EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF LATER THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN. FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR KIWD. CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS... BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR 23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT. ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER. WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF. AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1 RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST (ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9 INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO 20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL (POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO OUR E DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EXIT E OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM FROM S CANADA THROUGH THE S PLAINS. COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW VFR. A LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 40KTS AROUND 2KFT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AT IWD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF LLWS AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE THE SFC LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT CMX AND SAW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS. SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE. WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES. EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE A WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE TAFS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A MIX. WE THINK THE MIX WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z THOUGH. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 34 43 32 43 / 80 90 60 40 INL 36 45 32 42 / 80 90 70 40 BRD 41 52 35 49 / 90 70 40 30 HYR 38 50 35 49 / 90 90 50 40 ASX 36 47 34 44 / 80 90 70 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains. Increasing southerly low level flow will result. All short-range model guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa today. Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM, GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs over our northwest counties. We should see highs pretty close to what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning. The exception will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer than areas further east. The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move into northwest Missouri around 12Z. Still looks like showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it moves through the CWFA on Thursday. Diurnal heating will likely be limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so instability still looks relatively weak. While there should be enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not look likely at this time. Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and 15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this time of year regardless of cloud cover. Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the entire area shortly after 00Z. Still have some lingering precip east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits, but dry after midnight. Pacific high builds across the region Friday morning. As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning. West-southwest flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 70s. Carney .LONG TERM: (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear. Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave. The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday, though models can`t make up their minds where. GFS stalls the front across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF stalls it out over northern Iowa. The GEM is right about in the middle stalling the front over northern Missouri. All three models have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which will be exiting to the east (EC). Warm advection begins Saturday morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone and all three models print out some light precip. Have therefore kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more across the area if model trends become more consistent. The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains. A strong surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi Valley Monday night into Tuesday. The upper trof cuts off and becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall or Winter than mid to late Spring. Unsure how likely this is to happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen do this. Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a cold/wet end to April. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 Area of showers currently over western Missouri is expected to weaken this afternoon and is not expected to affect KCOU or KUIN at this time. Main impact will be increasing midlevel cloudiness at terminals. Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the night ahead of next system which will move eastward. Southerly low-level jet of 40-45 knots near 2000 feet AGL over central Missouri and west- central Illinois could produce low- level wind shear and added mention for KCOU and KUIN. For tomorrow...another area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from west to east ahead of a cold front from late morning into the early afternoon. Actual frontal passage and accompanied wind shift is likely to be after this valid forecast period. Specifics for KSTL: Increasing midlevel cloudiness is expected through the afternoon at the terminal. Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the night ahead of next system which will move eastward. Low-level jet axis should stay to the west of KSTL precluding mention of LLWS. For tomorrow...another area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to affect Lambert Field around midday. However...actual frontal passage and accompanied wind shift is likely to be just after this valid forecast period. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
643 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains. Increasing southerly low level flow will result. All short-range model guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa today. Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM, GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs over our northwest counties. We should see highs pretty close to what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning. The exception will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer than areas further east. The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move into northwest Missouri around 12Z. Still looks like showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it moves through the CWFA on Thursday. Diurnal heating will likely be limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so instability still looks relatively weak. While there should be enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not look likely at this time. Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and 15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this time of year regardless of cloud cover. Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the entire area shortly after 00Z. Still have some lingering precip east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits, but dry after midnight. Pacific high builds across the region Friday morning. As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning. West-southwest flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 70s. Carney .LONG TERM: (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear. Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave. The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday, though models can`t make up their minds where. GFS stalls the front across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF stalls it out over northern Iowa. The GEM is right about in the middle stalling the front over northern Missouri. All three models have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which will be exiting to the east (EC). Warm advection begins Saturday morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone and all three models print out some light precip. Have therefore kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more across the area if model trends become more consistent. The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains. A strong surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi Valley Monday night into Tuesday. The upper trof cuts off and becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall or Winter than mid to late Spring. Unsure how likely this is to happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen do this. Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a cold/wet end to April. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 VFR flight conditions will continue to prevail this forecast period, with winds veering and becoming more southerly as the surface ridge moves off to the east. The next system which will impact the area is taking shape over the plains, and as it moves east, area TAF sites will see winds increase to roughly 10-15KT by late morning/early afternoon in response to a tightening pressure gradient and increased southerly flow. The aforementioned pressure gradient should also be enough to produce some gusts around 20-22KT beginning by late afternoon, mainly impacting KCOU and KUIN. Only increasing midlevel clouds are expected through the period, and while there is a chance for precipitation to move into central and northeast Missouri late Wednesday night, exact timing has yet to be pinned down, and as the onset would be in the last few hours of the forecast period, have not included mention at this time. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with winds continuing to veer and become more southerly as the surface ridge moves east and the next system to impact the area takes shape over the plains. Expect winds to increase to about 12-14KT by early afternoon, remaining fairly steady overnight, and become gusty Thursday morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching system. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area on Thursday, though exact timing for impact at KSTL has yet to be pinned down, and as it would likely be within the last couple hours of the forecast period, have not mentioned it in the TAF at this time. Prior to the storms, expect a gradual increase in midlevel clouds overspreading the area from west to east today/tonight. JP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 69 52 72 52 / 5 10 80 30 Quincy 66 49 66 46 / 10 20 80 20 Columbia 72 53 70 47 / 10 30 80 10 Jefferson City 75 53 70 47 / 10 20 80 10 Salem 65 49 72 49 / 5 5 70 50 Farmington 69 48 73 47 / 5 5 80 30 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
344 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Today through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 Surface ridge extending from Wisconsin south/southwest into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and back into east Texas will move east today ahead of developing low pressure over the Great Plains. Increasing southerly low level flow will result. All short-range model guidance develops an area of warm advection showers over the eastern Plains and pushes it east northeast into northwest Missouri and Iowa today. Looks possible that the southeast edge of the showers could clip our area, but low level air is pretty dry according to the NAM, GFS, and RUC and the primary thrust of moisture return will be back over western Missouri so have only introduced slight chance PoPs over our northwest counties. We should see highs pretty close to what occurred yesterday even with the warm advection since we`ll be starting out the day cooler than Tuesday morning. The exception will be central Missouri where morning lows should be a bit warmer than areas further east. The shortwave currently digging across the Rockies will move out into the Great Plains tonight and the resulting cold front will move into northwest Missouri around 12Z. Still looks like showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the front as it moves through the CWFA on Thursday. Diurnal heating will likely be limited due to cloud cover and advancing precip from the west, so instability still looks relatively weak. While there should be enough CAPE for thunderstorms, widespread severe weather does not look likely at this time. Stuck closer to the warmer MAV guidance for highs since morning lows will be around 50 across the area and 15-20 degrees of rise should be attainable in warm advection this time of year regardless of cloud cover. Guidance is in good agreement with pushing the front through the entire area shortly after 00Z. Still have some lingering precip east of the Mississippi River Thursday evening as the front exits, but dry after midnight. Pacific high builds across the region Friday morning. As opposed to a colder Canadian airmass, the Pacific ridge should produce temperatures near or slightly above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday morning. West-southwest flow develops Friday morning as the high scoots quickly into the Tennessee Valley so expect temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 70s. Carney .LONG TERM: (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014 While the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, the smaller scale is still unclear. Generally, a secondary cold front will dip south across the Upper Midwest driven south by the last vestiges of Thursday`s shortwave. The front will stall somewhere across the Midwest on Saturday, though models can`t make up their minds where. GFS stalls the front across south/southwest Missouri Saturday morning, while the ECMWF stalls it out over northern Iowa. The GEM is right about in the middle stalling the front over northern Missouri. All three models have some low level baroclinicity over our area, whether it is the primary baroclinic zone associated with the front (GFS/GEM) or a secondary baroclinic zone left over from the Pacific airmass which will be exiting to the east (EC). Warm advection begins Saturday morning with a 30+ kt low level jet pointed at this baroclinic zone and all three models print out some light precip. Have therefore kept chance pops going in central Missouri, and would not be surprised if subsequent shifts need to bump up pops a bit more across the area if model trends become more consistent. The front remains stalled somewhere between Springfield Missouri and Davenport Iowa depending on which model you believe through Monday as the longwave trof over the Pacific moves inland, and becomes negatively tilted over the Rockies and Great Plains. A strong surface low develops as a result and it moves into the Mississippi Valley Monday night into Tuesday. The upper trof cuts off and becomes stagnant while the surface low tracks across Missouri into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Pattern is more reminiscent of late Fall or Winter than mid to late Spring. Unsure how likely this is to happen, but this is at least the second run in a row that I`ve seen do this. Will have to wait and see, but right now it looks like a cold/wet end to April. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014 VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly and increase on Wednesday morning. Specifics for KSTL: VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period with clear skies or scattered mid-hi clouds overnight and mid-high clouds on Wednesday. Light winds tonight will become southeasterly and increase on Wednesday morning. Glass && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 69 52 72 52 / 5 10 80 30 Quincy 66 49 66 46 / 10 20 80 20 Columbia 72 53 70 47 / 10 30 80 10 Jefferson City 75 53 70 47 / 10 20 80 10 Salem 65 49 72 49 / 5 5 70 50 Farmington 69 48 73 47 / 5 5 80 30 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO 60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3 HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE NAM. FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 WIND CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KLBF TO KANW...WHILE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT EAST OF THIS LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GET A REPRIEVE AFTER 06Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS MIXING THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LOCALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UNLESS A LOCATION SEES A PASSING SHOWER OR STORMS TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...BROOKS FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1007 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO 60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3 HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE NAM. FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CLB FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO 60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3 HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE NAM. FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO 60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3 HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE NAM. FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014 BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1202 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 UPDATE INCLUDED FRESHENING UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LATE TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RAP HAS 400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE NORTHEAST LATE. WILL WAIT FOR LATEST NAM BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND 06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEW POINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS POSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014 BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25 MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KNUTSVIG SHORT TERM...BROOKS LONG TERM...JWS AVIATION...KNUTSVIG FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1201 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH IMPRESSIVE 130M HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AHEAD OF IT...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. AHEAD OF ALL OF THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING BOTH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. AN FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP UNDER THE ACCAS FIELD OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE AREA JUST YET...THINK THESE WILL FADE AS THEY APPROACH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL 850MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KTS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT +8 TO +10C DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TSTM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD NOW AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL BRING QUITE GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WED MORNING AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WEST AND NORTH FROM 15-21Z. EXPECT A LULL IN TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THU WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME WITH BULK 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. PW`S BY EARLY EVENING DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50" SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WELL INTO IOWA BY THAT TIME. LINGERING POST FRONTAL PCPN IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING. BROAD/WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS ERN NEB...BUT LLWS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THRU ABOUT 12Z WED MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AREA OF -TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE THRU ERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR OCCASIONAL -TSRA/MVFR COND. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS ERN NEB TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30KT. FOCUS SHIFTS TO WED EVENING THEN WHEN NEXT ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH TEMPO GROUPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT ADVERTISING THIS STORM SYSTEM. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089. IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043. && $$ SHORT TERM...KERN LONG TERM...MILLER AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF 17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE. BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON SAT. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. UNDER MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THE END OF GUSTS. THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT RUT AS SFC WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THOUGH I`VE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS (RECENT ALY VWP SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS AT 2-3KFT) AND EXPECTATION THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-TO HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY TRENDING LOWEST FOR THE NY TAF SITES WITH APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE. 00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANOTHER DRY DAY FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO FIRE WEATHER...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF 17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE. BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON SAT. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. UNDER MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THE END OF GUSTS. THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT RUT AS SFC WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THOUGH I`VE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS (RECENT ALY VWP SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KTS AT 2-3KFT) AND EXPECTATION THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-TO HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY TRENDING LOWEST FOR THE NY TAF SITES WITH APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE. 00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES. MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 20% AND 30% ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV 4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV 4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE 20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE NEK. CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER TRRN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY. GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER TRRN. RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S. WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI. 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE 20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE NEK. CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER TRRN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY. GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER TRRN. RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S. WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI. 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW. EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10 KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
915 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. EXPECTING FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 400 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...SPC`S NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS FROM THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE. VERY WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP PROG FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR SAID REGION DURING THE 09Z-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS IS BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 A WET AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR 142W/43N WITH AN UPSTREAM 300MB JET STREAK OF 160KT DIGGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH A SPLITTING TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OFF NEAR COLORADO SUNDAY...THEN CIRCULATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...700MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP WEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IMPINGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT KJMS...AND POSSIBLY KMOT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY SHORT TERM...TM LONG TERM...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME (BY 3 HOURS) AND SPACE (3 COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST) AS WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN TOO FAST WITH PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY THOUGH THE CWA. THE UPDATED WIND HEADLINES AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 THE CENTER OF A SURFACE CYCLONE/TROUGH HAS NOW ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE 12Z HRRR PROGS RAIN SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THE 16Z-21Z PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. RAPID CITY RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS OF THIS WRITING. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS. ALSO MODIFIED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER GRIDS TO GO FROM UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON- SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM) OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>003-010- 011-021-022-035-036-046-047-050. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004- 005-012-013-023-025-037-040-041-043-044-048-051. && $$ UPDATE...TM SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 THE CENTER OF A SURFACE CYCLONE/TROUGH HAS NOW ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE 12Z HRRR PROGS RAIN SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THE 16Z-21Z PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. RAPID CITY RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS OF THIS WRITING. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS. ALSO MODIFIED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER GRIDS TO GO FROM UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON- SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM) OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012- 013-023-025-037-048-051. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...TM SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON- SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM) OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012- 013-023-025-037-048-051. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON- SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM) OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012- 013-023-025-037-048-051. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...TRYING TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION...BUT LARGELY KEPT IT CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST ADDING THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BASED ON LATEST NAM/RAP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS OVERNIGHT. BASED IN PART OF THE 23/01Z RAP AND THE 23/00Z NAM...HAVE SLOWED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND BOOSTED POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO FOLLOWED THE RAP SHOWALTER INDEX PROGS TO TRIM BACK THE ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FAR WEST OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS (TOO HIGH). AS A RESULT...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT RECOVERY SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO MINOT AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN...MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 TWO VIGOROUS SYSTEMS WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SYSTEM 1... A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND WEST WINDS BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH A DRY SLOT BEHIND IT OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS EXPECTING EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE/BOUNDARY SETTING UP NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS - BETTER CHANCES NORTH - WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS - MAINLY NORTH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SYSTEM 2... DURING THIS TIME THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS BLOCK MAINLY KEEPS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE US ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE COLDER AND WETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UTILIZED A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED AND THIS IS DEPICTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014 BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 20 KTS. SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AND CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY A LATE MORNING LULL AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO MORE WESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...TM LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1116 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11AM UPDATE... FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT HAS BEGUN TO BREAK UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE AS MIXING GETS GOING. OLD BELOW... NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TIMING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS. STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 15Z UPDATE... STRATOCU DECK HAS HUNG ON OVER NORTHERASTERN WV AND MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO. GENERALLY STAYING VFR EVEN IN THE CLOUDS...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE AS MIXING BEGINS. OLD BELOW... A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUD DECK IN THE NORTH DISSIPATING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032. OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY/LS SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY/LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
608 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TIMING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS. STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUD DECK IN THE NORTH DISSIPATING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032. OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY/JW SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TIMING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. BUT NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE. WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER. MET NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS. STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS. BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT. MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE NORTH COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/23/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032. OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
358 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD AND IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...WELL INTO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC TROUGH...WE ARE SEEING A SUBTLE AND SLOW DROP OFF IN SPEEDS OUT OF CRITERIA LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL LET THE JAMES VALLEY PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 21Z WITH THE REMAINING EASTERN AREA GOING UNTIL 00Z. ASIDE FROM THE WIND...ALSO DEALING WITH SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR AND OTHER HI RES MODELS...WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SO...EXPECTING DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP YET THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH VALUES LIKELY GOING BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW. TEMPS STAY MILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY. GFS IS STILL STUBBORN IN BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AT 850 MB INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SHOWING A BIT MORE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS REALLY IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS THOUGH SO HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS SEEN IN THE EC AND GEM. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A MAINLY WET AND COOL PATTERN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN WOBBLES AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN TO MUCH OF OUR CWA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH OUT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WITH THE RAIN...CLOUDS AND CANADIAN AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE MAY AFFECT THE TAF LOCATIONS AND WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AT ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...EXPECT MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ESPECIALLY ATY WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT ATY. THE SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-UPPER CHEYENNE- UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-CODINGTON- DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS. MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...MOHR AVIATION...MOHR WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
851 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 .UPDATE... SEE EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... AT 01Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KSHV TO KPSN TO KERV. THE FRONT WAS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE RATHER MEAGER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE RAP BRINGS THE WIND SHIFT TO A CALDWELL TO ONALASKA LINE BY 10Z. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A BIT DIFFUSE DURING THE MORNING WITH ONSHORE WINDS REESTABLISHED AREAWIDE BY 17Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES WITH STRONG CAPPING AT CRP AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AT LCH. RADAR SHOWED A FEW WEAK ECHOES SO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT THE T/TD GAP IS NARROWING SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ONCE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. NEW ZONES OUT BY 900 PM. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 AVIATION... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SE TX THIS EVENING. DO NOT THINK THE FRONT WILL GET TOO FAR PAST INTERSTATE 10. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. A FEW MORE RURAL SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE FOG FORMATION AROUND 06Z. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN MVFR CLOUD DECK FROM KHOU TO THE COAST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY HINT AT THAT POSSIBILITY. IF BELOW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/ DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE AREA...AND SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED UPON ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG 850 MB JET AXIS...WITH THE NORTHERN AND STRONGER STORMS APPEARING TO GET A LITTLE EXTRA BOOST FROM SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RADAR NOW CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP. LIMITED CHANCES TO FORECAST. RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LAY DOWN RAPIDLY APPROACHING SUNSET. THIS AHEAD OF A WEAK NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS LIMITED...AND AT THIS TIME INCLUDING OUR ONLY RAIN CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. ANY POST-FRONTAL CHANGES WILL BE LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...AND AN EQUALLY BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT WILL THEN STALL MOVING OFFSHORE... AND RETREAT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. RETURNING SOUTHERLIES WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORM THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND WITH THAT WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ADVECTION FOG. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A STRATUS LAYER THAN FOG. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...INCREASING SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE MID PLAINS INDUCING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE. INGREDIENTS OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM COMING TOGETHER IN SUCH A FASHION THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR LATE MONDAY. FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHARPLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA FOR MID-WEEK. AVIATION...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR KCXO HAS SINCE WEAKENED/PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TREK FROM EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY KARM TO KGLS LINE. NE TO SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT CONTINUES A STEADY SOUTHEAST PUSH...AND SHOULD REACH JUST NORTHWEST OF KCLL BY 00Z...AND NEAR KCXO BY 06Z. PROGRESS IS FCST TO SLOW AS THE BOUNDARY TAKES ON A MORE E-W ORIENTATION...BUT IS FCST TO CONTINUE OOZING TWD THE COAST WHILE WEAKENING. MORNING RAOBS AT KCRP AND KLCH INDICATED HEALTHY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHICH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA...WHILE ERODING FARTHER NORTH. THE VCTS AT KCLL AND KUTS WAS LEFT AS IS. OTHERWISE...THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY VFR...WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CURRENT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS...KLBX AND KGLS. MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHERLIES WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS...AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY OFFSHOE FLOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 62 85 64 86 / 30 10 10 10 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 84 65 85 63 85 / 20 10 10 10 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 78 68 77 70 80 / 20 10 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
950 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 950 PM EDT THURSDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT. THIS EVENING RNK 00Z/8PM SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING AROUND 718MB WITH A PWAT AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THE 18Z NAM GFS AND HRRR HINT AT MOISTURE SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...MADE NO CHANGES WITH FRIDAY CONVECTION. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT. AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY... RAISED EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SOLAR HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT ARRIVAL TIME FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN ISC GRIDS LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY... SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY... MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MVFR AS NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALLOWED FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM AT DAN. ELSEWHERE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 637 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOW RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...KK/PW SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...KK/PW FIRE WEATHER...KK/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY... RAISED EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SOLAR HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT ARRIVAL TIME FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN ISC GRIDS LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY... SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY... MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER BY DAYBREAK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MVFR AS NOTED IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MAINLY BE SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALLOWED FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM AT DAN. ELSEWHERE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEPART OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 637 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOW RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WETTING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...KK/PW SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...KK/PW FIRE WEATHER...KK/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1001 PM PDT Thu Apr 24 2014 .Synopsis... A weather system will bring a chance of widespread precipitation along with cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels tonight into early Saturday. Potential for isolated thunderstorms on Friday. && .Discussion... Showers continue to increase this evening as upper trough drops south along the coast. A band of strong thunderstorms developed earlier this evening near Chico with plenty of lightning and a few small hail reports. Best shower chances overnight will shift south over the southern Sacramento valley and central Sierra as shown by latest HRRR run. Have updated forecast to raise pops in these areas overnight. Showers will increase over northern areas towards morning with upper low dropping south. .Previous Discussion (Today through Sunday)... WSW to SWly flow aloft over Norcal moistening as .80+" TPW plume moves onto the Nrn CA coast. Mostly Light precip forecast through most of tonite as the frontal band moves towards the I-80 corridor by around midnight...and well SE of our CWA by early Fri morning. Synoptic scale or larger scale forcing is forecast to increase over Norcal on Fri (per convergence of Q vectors) as short wave and jet energy on the backside of Ern Pac trof digs the trof along the coast during the day. Then...during Friday night into early Sat this energy continues to dig rapidly into Socal. Thus...for our CWA the bulk of the precip is expected on Fri in widespread and bands of heavier showers/storms. Liquid amounts over an inch in the Siernev are possible and up to a third of an inch in the Valley. QPF should then be decreasing from N to S during Fri afternoon and evening. Cloud top enhancement west of the CA coast beginning to occur this afternoon as short wave energy near 40N/135W begins to interact with the moisture plume. This feature moves Ewd tonite and rain or showers should become more widespread over Norcal during the night. Convergence and surface heating along the E side of the coastal range may result in an isolated storm this evening... otherwise decreasing intensity until dynamics increase Fri morning. Heavier precip is expected on Fri as the digging trof will bring colder/unstable air into Norcal...not only lowering snow levels...but resulting in deep convection (showers/thunderstorms). One...snow levels should lower to around around 4000 Nrn mtns to 4500 to 5500 feet over the Siernev on Fri. Two...the best instability and greatest thunderstorm potential looks to be over the central and southern Sacramento valley in deference to the location of the NE quad of the vort max during the 18z-00z Fri time frame. Increasing onshore gradients on Fri will result in Delta Breezes and topographic channeling of the winds on the E side of the Sac vly. Convergence there could be the focus for stronger storms with possibility of hail. Up to nearly a foot of snow is expected over the higher elevations of the Siernev and 5-9 inches or so near pass levels...although melting/settling at this time of year may account for a couple of inches less accumulation. Greatest snowfall amounts expected to be from the I-80/Hwy-50 corridor Swd in zone 69 given the track of the short wave energy within the upper trof. This rapidly digging trof maintains a neutral tilt over CA. Forecast hodographs for the valley on Fri are mostly cyclonically curved... not broadly looping and favoring left moving storms with negative helicity. This is not the typical TOR set-up for Norcal...and favors more the hail producing storms given the steep lapse rates forecast with the advection of colder air. As this system moves across the Four-Corners area Sat nite... another short-wave is forecast to bring a chance of light precip mainly over the mtns into Sun morning. By Sun afternoon...ridging should prevail over Norcal with warmer/drier wx. JHM .Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday) Medium range models amplify EPAC upper ridge through first half of the extended forecast period for dry weather and warming. Amplifying EPAC upper ridge Monday is forecast to shift inland Tue/Wed by the GFS/GEM. The ECMWF-HiRes keeps the ridge axis off the West Coast as it digs an upper low southward through the Great Basin. The GFS/GEM solutions suggest more warming than the Euro which points to breezier conditions Tue/Wed. All point to temperatures well above normal early next week with highs from the mid 80s to near 90 in the Central Valley and upper 60s to lower 80s for the mountains and foothills. Models diverge beyond midweek but all suggest minor cooling as the ridge weakens Thursday, either from an approaching Pacific short wave system or from a backdoor trough dropping in from the east. Thus have lowered temps a few degrees day seven with continued dry. PCH && .Aviation... A cold front system continues to impact NorCal tonight into Friday. For the next 24 hours, valley conditions will generally be VFR except for local MVFR/IFR when showers develop. For the mountains, areas of MVFR/IFR expected with local IFR conditions in heavier showers. Snow levels will lower overnight down to 4500-5500 ft by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible across the valley and mountains between 12z Fri and 03z Sat. Generally W to S winds in the valley now through Friday with enhanced southerly winds in portions of the valley Fri morning and afternoon with local gusts up to 30 kts between KCIC and KSMF. Mountain winds will be SW with gusts up to 35 kts...locally higher over Sierra ridgetops. JBB && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... winter weather advisory until 5 am pdt saturday above 5000 feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
915 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014 .UPDATE... EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. && .SYNOPSIS... A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS. BEGINNING SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 130W THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF WFO SACRAMENTO/S WARNING/FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE WAY THE LATEST NAM-12 AND HIGH- RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/ HANDLE THIS STORM AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE HRRR HAVING A BETTER DEFINED WARM FRONTAL SECTOR. THE 00Z HRRR BRINGS PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS HANFORD BY 13Z /0600/ FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AN HOUR LATER. THE WARM SECTOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF HANFORD AROUND 15Z /0800 PDT/...CONTINUING OVER TULARE COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. THE 00Z NAM-12 HAS MUCH SLOWER TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM-12 TIMING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GFS...LENDING BETTER SUPPORT TO THE HRRR TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH THROUGH KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/HRRR SOLUTION. && .AVIATION... IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY IN PRECIPITATION. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z FRIDAY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY. && .PREV DISC... /ISSUED 107 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATING PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM NRN CA WILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATES LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH UPSLOPE FORCING AND WRING OUT ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST TOMORROW AS COLD POOL REMAINS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING IN THE AM WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED CELL POP UP NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 200 J/KG AND SFC BASED LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 0 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE SIERRA AS SNOW LEVELS WILL START HIGH AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WE ARE EXPECTING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THE NEW HPC/CNRFC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WITHIN ADV CRITERIA. WE HAVE STARTED SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET AND LOWERED THEM TO 4000 FEET BY THE END OF THE EVENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF INTO KERN COUNTY AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CONDITIONS WIND DOWN LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT REGIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERT ESCARPMENT NEAR MOJAVE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SAT...INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 04-24 101:1910 60:1899 63:1910 36:1958 KFAT 04-25 101:1898 55:1952 64:1898 36:1964 KFAT 04-26 98:1926 57:1955 68:1926 37:1975 KBFL 04-24 100:1910 64:1994 62:1981 34:1904 KBFL 04-25 97:1946 60:1951 65:1910 32:1893 KBFL 04-26 98:1926 57:1904 67:1926 32:1893 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK SOUTH TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/. && $$ PUBLIC...SANGER AVN/FW...DURFEE PREV DISCUSSION...JDB SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014 .UPDATE... EXPANDED SLIGHT CHACE POPS FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. && .SYNOPSIS... A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS. BEGINNING SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 130W THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND IMPULSES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH HAVE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF WFO SACRAMENTO/S WARNING/FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE WAY THE LATEST NAM-12 AND HIGH- RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/ HANDLE THIS STORM AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE HRRR HAVING A BETTER DEFINED WARM FRONTAL SECTOR. THE 00Z HRRR BRINGS PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS HANFORD BY 13Z /0600/ FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AN HOUR LATER. THE WARM SECTOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF HANFORD AROUND 15Z /0800 PDT/...CONTINUING OVER TULARE COUNTY THROUGH MID MORNING. THE 00Z NAM-12 HAS MUCH SLOWER TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM-12 TIMING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GFS...LENDING BETTER SUPPORT TO THE HRRR TIMING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH THROUGH KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/HRRR SOLUTION. && .AVIATION... IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY IN PRECIPITATION. LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR AFTER 09Z FRIDAY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY. && .PREV DISC... /ISSUED 107 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014/ DISCUSSION... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATING PRECIP MOVING INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM NRN CA WILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATES LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COINCIDE WITH UPSLOPE FORCING AND WRING OUT ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST TOMORROW AS COLD POOL REMAINS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING IN THE AM WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED CELL POP UP NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 200 J/KG AND SFC BASED LI VALUES ARE ABOVE 0 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE SIERRA AS SNOW LEVELS WILL START HIGH AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WE ARE EXPECTING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS. THE NEW HPC/CNRFC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT WETTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WITHIN ADV CRITERIA. WE HAVE STARTED SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET AND LOWERED THEM TO 4000 FEET BY THE END OF THE EVENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND BACK INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS. AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH WE ARE EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF INTO KERN COUNTY AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND CONDITIONS WIND DOWN LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AM. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT REGIONS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE PASSES AND INTO THE DESERT ESCARPMENT NEAR MOJAVE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE EXTENDED FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SAT...INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 04-24 101:1910 60:1899 63:1910 36:1958 KFAT 04-25 101:1898 55:1952 64:1898 36:1964 KFAT 04-26 98:1926 57:1955 68:1926 37:1975 KBFL 04-24 100:1910 64:1994 62:1981 34:1904 KBFL 04-25 97:1946 60:1951 65:1910 32:1893 KBFL 04-26 98:1926 57:1904 67:1926 32:1893 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK SOUTH TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/. && $$ PUBLIC...SANGER AVN/FW...DURFEE PREV DISCUSSION...JDB SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 AM EDT... RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT. THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM. BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE. SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS 500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM 500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT INTO MON NT. AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF. ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING. HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASE TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH TONIGHT AND TURN WEST AROUND 10 MPH SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL BRING A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BRING A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE QPF. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 AM EDT... RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT. THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM. BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE. SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS 500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM 500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT INTO MON NT. AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF. ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING. HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW... RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 5 MPH. FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM HYDROLOGY...LFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 AM EDT... RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SNCDRY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT. THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM. BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE. SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS 500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM 500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT INTO MON NT. AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH SUNRISE...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES. AT THIS TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW... RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 5 MPH. FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM HYDROLOGY...LFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE GA COAST AND EAST CENTRAL FL COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA...VERTICAL LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LOW OVER SE GA/NE FL FOR PRECIP TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FROM FORMING AND HAVE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS. .SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ENOUGH LOW/MID MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SUNDAY AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S COAST. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEEKENDS VERY WARM READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE MAINLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR WED/THU...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING MORE TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN THE 60S. .AVIATION... INLAND BR AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WILL USE IFR FOR GNV...WITH MVFR FOR VQQ/JAX. WILL KEEP CRG/SSI VFR. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/BR WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SEABREEZE EFFECTS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH PREVAILING SW WINDS THIS AFTN OF 10-14 KT. && .MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A VEERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 81 65 76 63 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 87 61 85 62 / 10 10 10 0 SGJ 84 64 79 64 / 0 10 10 0 GNV 87 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 0 OCF 87 64 86 61 / 0 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INTO EASTERN AL. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. BDL && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AL. THE PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE HAD TO ADD PRECIP TO THE TAF. AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. HAVE ADDED VCSH AND A TEMPO GROUP. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE TEMPO GROUP IN FURTHER AMD IF LINE DIMINISHES AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. CIGS SHOULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0 ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5 COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5 MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0 ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0 VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
128 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2014 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 950 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 Compact upper vorticity maximum is now transversing Missouri this evening. In advance of the wave, arcing area of convection now is passing through the Ohio River/Mississippi River confluence region and into western KY. Based on the latest radar imagery, this activity should be approaching our western counties by 04Z and into the I-65 corridor by 06Z...reaching the I-75 corridor by 09-10Z. Overall, the convection has been steadily weakening as the convection has been running into a more stable and less moist environment. Nonetheless, showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most areas overnight. Once the arc of convection passes, we`ll see a brief pause in the rainfall then more scattered showers are likely as the actual vorticity maximum passes overhead, just before sunrise. Severe weather threat looks very low at this time as the dynamics and instability are not all that impressive. Brief heavy rains and some gusty winds will be possible as the storms move through the region overnight. The current forecast has this well covered quite well. Only some minor adjustments to precipitation timing was made with this evening`s update. .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 In the near term, afternoon visible satellite imagery shows high level cirrus clouds progressing northeast across central KY and southern IN, in advance of a shortwave to our west, with surface temperatures warming steadily to near 70 east and lower and mid 70s west. Temperatures will continue to rise a couple/few more degrees through late afternoon before falling back this evening. Pronounced shortwave over KS/OK at this time will move steadily east tonight accompanied by an increase in low-level moisture and southerly winds, which will effectively limit/end our evening fall in surface temperatures overnight. Surface winds should become gusty overnight. Currently, this system is causing widespread convective development from western MO to eastern OK and AR. Models are in good agreement bringing these storms in a band into central KY and southern IN late this evening and overnight. The 15z HRRR and 12z in-house mesoscale models bring the leading edge of the convection to our western forecast area border around 04 UTC. Looking at model soundings, boundary layer cools this evening but steep lapse rates and elevated instability remain if lifting a parcel from about 900-950 mb. This will support continuation of convection as axis of precipitation moves across our area, especially western part of forecast area. With increasing winds at 925 and 850 mb, there is a chance that greater momentum air could mix down to surface and create a few strong wind gusts with the strongest cells (again, more likely in western sections), but presence of weak-to-moderate nocturnal boundary layer inversion should keep strongest winds aloft, unable to penetrate to surface. After this band passes, there could be a brief lull in precip, but models bring another area of moisture through from early to mid morning (from west to east) associated with the actual mid-level trough axis and surface front. As a result, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during that time, with models again indicating presence of some instability. Front passes through the area first half of Friday. Winds behind the boundary will become quite gusty from the west-northwest around 30 mph. Morning clouds and lingering showers will move off to the east followed quickly by a clearing trend. Highs Friday afternoon should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, depending on how rapdily skies clear. Friday night will be mainly clear with lows again down in the 40s in most locations. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014 Saturday - Sunday... Heights will rise through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge axis approaches and then slides through. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across southern Ohio and into central IN, stalling by Saturday evening as it becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Technically, it would be a back door cold front if it were to make progress through the area, but it looks to stall just to our north. Either way, the boundary will be moisture starved and we should stay on the warm side of it. This will lead to a dry and warm weekend. Expect highs on Saturday in the upper 70s north to low 80s south. Lows Saturday night should dip into the lower 50s. Should start to see an gradual increase in mid and upper level clouds on Sunday as the ridge axis starts to slide east, however 1000-850 thicknesses and 850 mb temps will support a 2-3 degree increase from Saturday. Therefore, have gone with mostly lower 80s on Sunday. A few Bluegrass or southern IN counties may stay confined to upper 70s. Will continue to leave the slightest of chances for a shower or storm in our far western tier or two of counties late Sunday afternoon, however bulk of precip will not arrive until Sunday night onward. Sunday Night - Tuesday... By Sunday night, blocking upper ridge axis will be off to our east with an impressive closed upper low over the central Plains. Southwesterly flow through a deep layer will overspread the Ohio Valley, including a 40 knot low level jet nosing in. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be just off to our northeast with expansive mid level deformation aloft. By dawn on Monday, expect scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms mainly along and west of I-65. These likely shower and t-storm chances will then encompass the entire CWA on Monday. Tough to tell how well we destabilize in this environment, but it appears that a stronger to possibly severe storm threat will be conditional upon destabilization, especially along and west of I-65. Another threat of stronger to severe storms may move in later Monday night into early Tuesday as the exit region of another impulse rotating around the upper low ejects out of the southern Plains. Again, strength of storms would be conditional upon destabilization. Scattered to numerous showers and storms could then plague the area again later Tuesday afternoon/evening. Will continue to monitor threat for stronger storms to start the new work week, but will also keep an eye on the threat for periods of heavy rain and flooding. With repeated rounds of t-storms possible and PWATs jumping up around 2 std deviations above normal for this time of year, flooding could become a concern. Tough to judge temperatures during this time, solid reading in the 70s seem reasonable each day on the warm side of the boundary and warm advective flow. Obviously, convection will be the deciding factor. Lows will be mild during this time, at least in the low 60s in most spots. Tuesday Night - Thursday... We begin to transition to a cooler period by the middle and end of the week as the wobbling upper low and its associated surface reflection slide into the Midwest. Precipitation chances look to become more scattered in nature during this time with thunder chances becoming less likely. These days will likely not be wash-outs, but will be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler. Look for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s and lows in the low and mid 40s by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2014 Surface low pressure over northern Illinois this hour will bring deteriorating conditions into our terminals for the next several hours. Some light rains have preceded a couple of bands of thunderstorms that have been waning. However, additional storms are forming closer to a vortmax now entering Western KY. Have gone close to LAV guidance for timing the best chance for storms to affect the terminals, but in general will have showers in the vicinity until we can clear this forcing by daybreak. Low clouds will linger in the wake of the rain for a few more hours, but model time height sections indicate clear skies this afternoon. As for winds, we have several boundaries in the area now, so they will be somewhat variable until the main cold front gets through mid to late morning. High pressure then will build in from the south tonight, bringing light and variable winds. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........MJ Short Term.....TWF Long Term......BJS Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PADUCAH KY
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance. && UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 Updated forecast to account for precipitation trends. A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to spread across the forecast area this evening. The entire region should have experienced a good soaking rain by midnight. Also kept higher rain chances over the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area late this evening through the early pre-dawn hours Friday to account for greater elevated instability associated with the passing mid level trough. With the low levels slow to moisten up and deep layer shear lacking, severe storms have not materialized. The threat has all but ended at this time, though an isolated strong storm still cannot be completely discounted. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 Finally have some lower 50s surface dewpoints spreading into southeast Missouri as of 19Z. It has taken most of the day, but mid to upper 50 dewpoints seem reasonable for much of the area ahead of the storms late this afternoon and this evening. Instability is still meager at best, and the forcing associated with the mid/upper-level trough will be the main instigating factor for this event. The HRRR has been fairly consistent through the day at bringing the first of the showers and storms into Ripley and Carter counties around 22Z, and to the Mississippi River by 00Z. It appears as though the convection will become more organized as it moves east over the remainder of the region through 06Z. Model soundings indicate impressive 0-3KM SRH values, certainly enough to support rotating updrafts, but the forcing is likely to result in a linear event. So, would expect wind damage to be the main concern with some minor potential for a brief tornado or two with mesovortices or embedded supercell structures. Not sure just how much severe weather there will be, given the struggling moisture and instability. This may result in a better severe threat across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky, where the better low-level moisture will be located. The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement that there will be some wrap-around showers late tonight across the northeast half of the area, as the main mid/upper trough moves through the region. The showers may last through sunrise, especially in the Owensboro area. Increased Pops to likely levels for this activity. The 12Z models leave little to debate for Friday through Saturday, but they do diverge a bit in the location of the weak frontal boundary by 12Z Sunday. The GFS brings the boundary into the Tri State area, while the NAM keeps it northeast of the area. It basically stalls out, and takes on the look of a warm front, and the models are dry through 12Z Sunday, so it will not make much difference. As for temperatures, will lean to the warm side of guidance for lows tonight through Saturday night, and for highs on Saturday. Guidance has cooled things down a few degrees for highs Friday, so decided to blend the consensus of 12Z guidance with the previous forecast. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 During the day Sun, a large scale, deep low pressure system will approach the PAH forecast area from the west, as agreed on by the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means. Individual deterministic runs of the med range models began to differ with the details after Mon (Day 6), but agreement on the mid level and sfc features was not bad for that time frame. Some time on Sun morning, a warm front ahead of the system will begin its trek nwd across the region. This, combined with divergence aloft, deep moisture advection and instability, will result in plentiful tstm activity west of the MS River, and scattered tstms east of the MS River. Sun night/Mon/Mon night, showers will be nearly a sure thing, with the best chance of tstms during the day time hours. Due to multiple rounds of deep moist convection, and the slower movement of the overall system, heavy rainfall amounts are possible. Wind shear increases aloft Mon, and with available instability, severe weather is possible into the evening. From Tue through Wed night, pcpn chances are forecast to gradually wane as the nearly stacked low pressure system wobbles through the Midwest. The last signal for instability tstms appeared to be Tue. There could be a resurgence of showers Thu as energy wraps around the back side of the vast mid/upper low, as it possibly begins to depart. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1145 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 MVFR cigs/vsbys with or without VCTS/TSRA possible through 15-16Z... otherwise VFR. Best chances for TSRA at KCGI/KPAH between 06-09Z and between 09-14Z at KEVV/KOWB. Gusty southerly winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 18-20 knots will veer around to the southwest during the night with speeds slightly decreasing, veer around to the northwest between 11-13Z aob 15 knots, then variable aob 5 knots after 00Z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next week. The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit the fire danger risk for most areas. A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a few hours Saturday morning. Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally, morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place that should prevent any surface based convection from forming through the daytime hours of Saturday. Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later convective development into the evening hours across the Southern Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE, elevated hail producing supercells would be possible. Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward. Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across the northern CWA. The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection, with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast moving into the weekend. Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 345 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Surface ridging continues to move across the terminals. Fog is anticipated in STJ, with temporary restrictions to LIFR through daybreak. Otherwise VFR conditions likely through Friday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
348 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 335 AM FRIDAY...STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 500 MB TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE OCEAN BY MID MORNING PER LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS ABOUT 2000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL. THINK THE PRIME TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE ROUGHLY 20Z TO 03Z AND THINK GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...OUR NORTHERN AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED REGION FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 60S COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND GIVEN THE INCREASING S/SSW FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE. TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE 3 KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD LAYERS BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB- VFR. WILL JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EXCEPT HAVE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES OUTER BANKS. TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING. THE 3 KM HRRR TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AROUND 11Z BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DAMPENING SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. SPC UPGRADED SVR OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT RISK OVER AREA AND CONCUR ON MARGINAL SVR THREAT DURING AFTN WITH FCST SOUNDING CAPES TO AROUND 1200 AND SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST POPS WITH 20% OVER SW HALF OF AREA DURING MORNING WITH INITIAL WAA...THEN 30-50 POPS FOR TSTMS DURING AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WRN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE TO AROUND 80 INLAND SECTIONS EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...AND AROUND 70 OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRI EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPCLY NE TIER CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE AND BETTER FORCING. COULD STILL BE SMALL CHC OF STRONG TO SVR STORM EARLY BUT WITH INSTAB WANING THREAT SHLD END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ALL PRECIP SHLD EXIT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS FRONT/SHORT WAVE MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 BEACHES. WEAK HIGH WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPR 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THRU THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPCLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE CST TO MID/UPR 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE LATER MON ESPCLY INLAND AND CONT SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HIGHWAY 17 IN THE AFTN. ISENT LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NRN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHC POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHC SE. TUE THROUGH THU LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPR LOW STALLS NEAR SRN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BOUTS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THRU THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. SOME INDICATION THAT WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON FRONT AND PUSH BULK OF MOISTURE OFF THE CST LATER THU BUT TOO EARLY TO REALLY JUMP ON THAT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUE INTO THU HOWEVER CLDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPR 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE 3 KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD LAYERS BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR. WILL JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT MVFR POSS EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA THEN VFR FROM M ID EVENING ON AS MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WL LIFT N THRU THE REGION LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO MARINE FORECAST. WINDS CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET ON ALL WATERS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PRODUCE INCREASING S-SW WINDS ON FRIDAY. MODEL BLEND INDICATES WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE AFTN...AND POSTED SCA THERE AT 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT. BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT...THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY WITH 4-6 FT LIKELY OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 230 PM THU...BRIEF SCA EXPECTED FIRST PART OF FRI NIGHT CNTRL AND SRN TIER WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OUTER WTRS S OF OREGON INLET. WINDS WL GRAD SHIFT TO NW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORN. WEAK HIGH WILL CROSS TO THE S SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SSE THRU THE REGION LATER SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15 TO 20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15 TO 20 KTS CNTRL AND NRN TIER BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...POSS SOME 5 FOOTER OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. HIGH PRES WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THRU THE AREA TUE WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...CTC/BTC/BM MARINE...CTC/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 AS OF 545 UTC...FOG CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOULD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOME NECESSARY. OTHER THEN TO ADJUST LOWS FOR TONIGHT BASED UPON TRENDS THROUGH 05-06 UTC...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ISOLATED PEA SIZE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES. EXPECTING FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 400 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...SPC`S NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OVER BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS FROM THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE. VERY WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP PROG FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR SAID REGION DURING THE 09Z-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS IS BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 A WET AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR 142W/43N WITH AN UPSTREAM 300MB JET STREAK OF 160KT DIGGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH A SPLITTING TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OFF NEAR COLORADO SUNDAY...THEN CIRCULATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...700MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO DEVELOP WEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IMPINGE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 IFR/LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 08-14 UTC TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF SET. HOWEVER...POST 06 UTC...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...TM LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. 40 && .AVIATION... THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TO NEAR KUTS AT 0445Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LIVINGSTON TO BRENHAM BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE NAM12 AND HRR MODELS BOTH AGREE WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z FROM KCXO SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIFT BY 14Z OR 15Z WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/ UPDATE... SEE EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION... AT 01Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KSHV TO KPSN TO KERV. THE FRONT WAS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE RATHER MEAGER SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE RAP BRINGS THE WIND SHIFT TO A CALDWELL TO ONALASKA LINE BY 10Z. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A BIT DIFFUSE DURING THE MORNING WITH ONSHORE WINDS REESTABLISHED AREAWIDE BY 17Z. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES WITH STRONG CAPPING AT CRP AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AT LCH. RADAR SHOWED A FEW WEAK ECHOES SO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE GRIDS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT THE T/TD GAP IS NARROWING SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ONCE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. NEW ZONES OUT BY 900 PM. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 85 64 86 69 / 10 10 10 20 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 65 85 63 85 69 / 10 10 10 20 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 68 77 70 80 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
204 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROVIDES COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 950 PM EDT THURSDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT. THIS EVENING RNK 00Z/8PM SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING AROUND 718MB WITH A PWAT AROUND 0.5 INCHES. THE 18Z NAM GFS AND HRRR HINT AT MOISTURE SLIDING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...MADE NO CHANGES WITH FRIDAY CONVECTION. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT. AS OF 635 PM EDT THURSDAY... RAISED EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES WITH SOLAR HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LATEST RNK WRFARW AND HRRR SUPPORT CURRENT ARRIVAL TIME FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN ISC GRIDS LATER THIS EVENING. AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY... SKIES HAVE CLEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCES HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...SO POPS WERE TAPERED DOWNWARD DURING THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE HELD IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. POPS WERE INCREASED LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AND A LITTLE MORE OVERALL COVERAGE PORTRAYED IN THE MODELS. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE COAST BY SUNSET. QPF AMOUNTS WERE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND END ANY OF THE REMAINING RAINFALL. CHANCES OF THUNDER WERE ONLY PLACED IN SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WERE BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC KEEPS ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY... MOST PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...SAVE SOUTHSIDE VA/NC PIEDMONT AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. GOOD BURST OF WIND BEHIND THIS COMPACT YET DECENT SHRTWV...WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WAA RETURNS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY...MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS AROUND ELKINS WV...WITH SOME OF THESE WEAKENING...PERHAPS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH. SOMETIMES MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THIS REGIME...SO FOR NOW AT LEAST WENT WITH SLT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR +15C CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME SPOTS TOUCHING 80F POSSIBLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE NEXT WORKWEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ON THE WET SIDE AS A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL START MONDAY OUT WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL GET HUNG UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND PERHAPS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE STABILIZING AFFECT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKEST. WILL SEE A BETTER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND THEREFORE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE...AND BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DID NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND 11AM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 21Z/4PM. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 21Z/4PM WITH RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...TONIGHT... AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...DIMINISHING BY SUNSET SATURDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...KK/PW SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS. MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35 AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8 AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 SATURDAY-MONDAY THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN. THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD. MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 THE PCPN HAS CLEARED EAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS A FEW HOURS BEHIND IT. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ALREADY REACHED KRST...AND EXPECT IT TO DO THE SAME FOR KLSE AROUND 06Z. WITH SCT/SKC SKIES FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND A SATURATED NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE RECENT RAINS...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BECOMES A CONCERN. LATEST BUFKIT/NAM12 SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN INVERSION DEVELOPING OFF THE SFC...SUGGESTIVE OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP...ALA HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER. STILL...ENOUGH FAVORS IT TO CONTINUE BR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW IN JUST HOW LOW VSBYS COULD GO IN FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...SO WILL STICK WITH 2-4SM FOR NOW. ANTICIPATE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING/BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS. THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED. WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE NEXT WEEK. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
615 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE GA COAST AND EAST CENTRAL FL COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HRRR MODEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA...VERTICAL LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LOW OVER SE GA/NE FL FOR PRECIP TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FROM FORMING AND HAVE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. SURFACE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS. .SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ENOUGH LOW/MID MOISTURE MAY POOL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SUNDAY AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE FL. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S COAST. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEEKENDS VERY WARM READINGS...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MAINLY 60S FOR LOWS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE TOWARD THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE MAINLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR WED/THU...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING MORE TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN THE 60S. .AVIATION... INLAND BR/LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH 13-14Z...WITH IFR FOR GNV/VQQ/JAX PERHAPS REACHING CRG. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR SSI. ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/BR WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SEABREEZE EFFECTS NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH PREVAILING SW WINDS THIS AFTN OF 10-14 KT. && .MARINE...WINDS TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A VEERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 59 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 81 65 76 63 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 87 61 85 62 / 10 10 10 0 SGJ 84 64 79 64 / 0 10 10 0 GNV 87 63 86 61 / 0 10 10 0 OCF 87 64 86 61 / 0 10 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INTO EASTERN AL. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. BDL && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK ALONG THE AL/GA LINE ARE CREEPING EASTWARD. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING...NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL OCCUR AND LAST VERY LONG. CLOUDS WILL SCT OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20KT. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EARLY EVENING. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0 ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5 COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5 MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0 ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0 VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
931 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014 .Update to Fire Weather Section... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 An intense upper level storm system will move on shore across the western US late this afternoon then move into the great basin and desert southwest through Tonight. The southwesterly flow at mid levels will increase across the central Rockies causing a lee surface trough to deepen across the central and southern plains. This will cause South-southwesterly winds to increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH through the day Friday. The southerly winds along with deeper mixing will help High temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the CWA. Tonight, deeper gulf moisture will begin to be transported northeast on an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. Isentropic lift will begin to increase across the southern and eastern counties of the CWA after midnight and isolated elevated thunderstorms may begin to form around 9Z and last into the mid morning hours of Saturday. However the 6Z run of the NAM model now shows the more favorable isentropic lift developing east of the CWA after 12Z. MUCAPES are forecasted to increase to 500 to 1000 j/kg along and south of I-35. Effective vertical wind shear above the LFC to the EL will also increase to 30 to 35 KTS across eastern KS by 12Z SAT. If elevated thunderstorms develop late Tonight, then some of the elevated thunderstorms may produce quarter size hail along and south of I-35. Any elevated thunderstorms north of I-35 that manage to develop Tonight, where the MUCAPE will only be 200-600 J/kg, may produce small hail. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 50s given southerly winds and low-level moisture advection through the night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Some early day convection may linger across southeast portions of the county warning area and will maintain low end pops across the eastern 1/3 of the cwa in the morning before convection chances shift off to the east. For the remainder of the day...a strengthening elevated mixed layer should suppress convective potential over most of the cwa except in the far western counties near/just beyond peak heating where highs in the upper 80s and convergence may be erode/breach capping inversion with isolated or scattered convection. Otherwise a very warm and breezy day across the area with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s. For Saturday night...the main upper level trough will begin to rotate out into the high plains of southeast CO with another weaker shortwave moving northeast across the cwa in southwest flow aloft. This continues to be slightly slower than previous runs...and with the delay in stronger forcing aloft and retreating dryline to the west...uncertainty still exists as to how the severe convection that forms off the dryline late in the day will be sustained as it moves northeastward towards/into the cwa through the evening/overnight. Other convection...mainly elevated in association with the weaker shortwave...should develop overnight as llvl jet also increases. This convection could pose a large hail threat. Will maintain higher end chance pops. The most concentrated and potentially strongest convection appears to be on Sunday as the main shortwave lobe over southwest KS/northwest OK region at 12z Sunday...lifts northeastward across KS through the day. Moderate instability develops just ahead of the dry slot across the eastern half of the cwa by midday and Bulk shear dramatically increases west to east as the upper trough and associated jet lifts out across the area with all modes of severe weather possible...although severe wind and hail would be primary. The dry slot spreads further east of the remainder of the cwa into the evening with rapidly decreasing chances for thunderstorms and severe weather. The upper low will pivot eastward slowly and traverse the cwa through into Monday night and with cooler air and circulation aloft... could see enough destabilization to warrant the mention of thunder through the daytime hours Monday. Otherwise will maintain shower potential through mid week as main upper trough and then secondary northwest flow shortwaves eventually move across the area. After high temps in the 70s on Sunday...will cool highs into mainly the 60s Monday....then mainly the 50s and lower 60s on through Thursday. Lows should generally be in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 638 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Patchy shallow ground fog was noted at KTOP and should mix out an hour after sunrise. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There may be some isolated thunderstorms with scattered STRATOCU after 10Z SAT. If winds diminish later tonight then moderate to strong LLWS between the SFC and 1500 FT may develop at the TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 912 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Morning sounding at KTOP revealed ample amount of subsidence air throughout the column. Soundings from the RUC and NAM indicate strong mixing through 800 MB by late afternoon, bring RH values lower to the upper teens and near 20 percent. Wind gusts across the north central areas average between 15 and 20 mph sustained with gusts up to 30 mph during the late afternoon. Fire weather partners agreed that the fuels remain critical at this time and will go ahead with a Red Flag Warning for north central and portions of northeast Kansas today. Please see the product for more information. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010- 020>022-034>037. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...63 AVIATION...Gargan FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1033 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .DISCUSSION... FRESHENED UP FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 50 ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A BLEND OF LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THIS DRIER AIR. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MVFR/LOWER CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHROUDS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH HELPING PUSH CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE SITES BY LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER A PLEASANT FLYING DAY SHOULD LINGER WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PASSING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FORECAST...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE THIS. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO TIME SHOWER AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DID REQUIRE A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET. RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR OF 60KT PLUS AND HELICITY VALUES GREATER THE 250. WHILE THE WORST OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...ABOVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH IT IN THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A TREND THAT STARTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY CONTINUES WITH THE OOZ GUIDANCE IN THAT THE LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY SLOWS DOWN...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...THUS KEEPING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT ONCE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED...WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE POPS SOMETIMES OVER THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH EVERYTHING SLOWING DOWN AND THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT LOOKING TO BE DIMINISHED DID HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. MARINE... WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING SOMETIMES THIS WEEKEND. BRAZZELL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 83 64 81 68 / 20 10 10 10 KBPT 83 65 80 69 / 10 10 10 10 KAEX 82 59 84 66 / 0 10 10 10 KLFT 83 64 82 68 / 20 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FOR SUNDAY. CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IT WILL LIKELY CAUSE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MID ATLANTIC IS IN S-SELY FLOW AT THE SFC ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE 30S IN NRN MD TO THE 40S IN CENTRAL VA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS REACHING I-95 CORRIDOR AFTER 2PM. 12Z IAD RAOB IS STILL DRY WITH A PWAT OF 0.63 INCHES. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE THE TREND ALOFT AS WELL AS A MOIST S-SW LLJ MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURATING THE COLUMN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TODAY AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING. PER MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS STILL LACKING BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATER CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE LOW LCLS AND 0-0.5KM SHEAR OF 30KTS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FURTHER NORTH LOWER DEWPTS AND LESS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MAX TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MAX TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME WARMER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CAUSING MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 70S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT...CAUSING A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO IT WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE A WARM AFTERNOON. A DEEP MIXING LAYER ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TOPPING OFF AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...A CU DECK WILL DEVELOP WITH SKIES TURNING OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. AS THE LOW SPIRALS ACRS THE NERN CONUS SAT EVE...THE CDFNT WL SWING ACRS THE CWFA. BAROCLINICITY/INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS TO BE FVRBL TO SQUEEZE OUT A LTL QPF ALONG/AHD OF THE BNDRY. A FEW SPRINKLES... MAYBE? MDL FIELDS PICKING UP ON THIS MORE THAN MOS. WL CONT THOUGHT PROCESS FM THE AFTN...CARRYING 30 POPS ACRS SRN MD/NRN VA PIEDMONT ELY EVNG. AFTER THAT...SAT NGT WL BE ALL ABT THE CAA. SKIES SHUD BE CLRG QUITE EFFICIENTLY IN NW FLOW AS DEWPTS DROP INTO THE 30S. DIURNALLY...ITS NOT TIMED APPROPRIATELY FOR MIXING THRU THE NGT. HV A GUSTY EVNG /MDL SNDGS SUGGEST G20KT/ BEFORE DCPLG STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. RDGG WL BUILD INTO CWFA SUN-SUN NGT. H8 TEMPS WL BE COOLER THAN SAT...BY AS MUCH AS 6C. HV MAXT ARND 10 DEGF LWR...IN LINE W/ A MDL BLEND. CLR SKIES DURING THE DAY WL FADE BY NGT AS MID-LVL MSTR ADVECTS THIS WAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GFS HAS 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BLDG OVR AREA ERY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MVG OFSHR TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY CHCS OF WETNESS DURG THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME - AREAS OF SUPPORTING VORT ENTERING RGN TUESDAY AFTN...WEDNESDAY MRNG THROUGH THURSDAY MRNG AND AGAIN FRIDAY MRNG. SEEMS HPC ENSEMBLE IS MVS SYS E ARND 12 HRS FASTER THAN GFS/ECMWF. CLOSED 500 MB LOW WL REMAIN CENTERED OVR NRN PLAINS/GT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE PD. EURO IS IMPLYING A CAD WEDGE WL DVLP WED. THIS WOULD HELP IN KEEPING TEMPS BLO NRML...PSBLY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S! && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR ANTICIPATED REST OF THE WKND. HWVR...THE PTNL EXISTS FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS DURG THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WK DUE TO RA. && .MARINE... A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. CDFNT CLRS WATERS SAT NGT. WNDS SVRL THSND FT OFF DECK WUD SUPPORT GLW...BUT NOT SURE THE MIXING WL BE PRESENT. ITLL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR MOVES ACRS WATERS...TO IMPROVE LAPSE RATES. AM CARRYING A SOLID SCA INSTEAD. GLW PSBL CAN REMAIN IN THE HWO. SHUD HV A CPL QUIET DAYS AFTER THAT /SUN-MON/. CONDS LOOKING UNSTLD THEREAFTER. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO SHARPLY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. SINCE THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS...MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DURING THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL NORMS. THE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE STRONG. THEREFORE...ANY ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>534- 537-539>543. GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 535-536-538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS SHORT TERM...BJL/HTS LONG TERM...CEM AVIATION...BJL/CEM/HTS MARINE...BJL/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next week. The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit the fire danger risk for most areas. A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a few hours Saturday morning. Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally, morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place that should prevent any surface based convection from forming through the daytime hours of Saturday. Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later convective development into the evening hours across the Southern Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE, elevated hail producing supercells would be possible. Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward. Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across the northern CWA. The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection, with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast moving into the weekend. Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued at 623 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Fog will continue for STJ for the upcoming 1-3 hours, but generally VFR conditions are anticipated for all terminals today. Winds will remain from the southwest. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...Dux
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2014 .UPDATE... JUST A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE. CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z. FORECAST AREA WAS UNDER UPPER RIDGING THIS MORNING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUPPORTED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION W OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS IN THE FORECAST. NOTED THE ECMWF BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...THIS POSSIBILITY APPEARED TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE ANY POPS THERE. FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR WAS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CAPE. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AND WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATEST RAP SHOWED NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES IN THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THIS AREA WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID EXPAND THUNDER MENTION FURTHER INTO CARBON COUNTY BASED ON THE RAP FORECAST. GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES...GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES N INTO THE AREA FROM WY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE W. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION FOR TONIGHT LOOKED REASONABLE IN THE FORECAST. THE CHANCES FOR EVENING THUNDER IN THE W LOOKED FINE AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE MODELS TREND...IN CASE THUNDER MENTION NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. ARTHUR && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT... DRY WX EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP TROF ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW MOVING THRU THE GREAT BASIN. AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF PCPN FROM THE SW THIS MORNING...WITH SOME WEAK ECHOES IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOW. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST THIS AFTN AND EVENING IN OUR WEST PER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ASCENT IN RRQ OF SWLY JET...AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL SFC WINDS. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF BILLINGS...AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD TS TO PARK/ WHEATLAND COUNTIES WITH LIFTED INDICES ON THE ORDER OF -1C. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES GOING THRU THE NIGHT...SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH DRYING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED...AND THIS PROMISES TO BE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD OF WX FOR US THRU SAT NIGHT...INCLUDING BILLINGS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER CELLS... THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WX THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. PCPN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH GREATER THAN A HALF INCH ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS PER THE UPSLOPING AND INSTABILITY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7KFT OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME HIGH FOR SHOWERS AND SOME DECENT PCPN TOTALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SINCE THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND GIVEN THIS WILL NOT BE A LONG DURATION EVENT FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS...THIS PCPN SHOULD NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...THOUGH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW WATER WILL HAVE TO COME OUT EVENTUALLY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. IT WILL BEGIN TO TURN COOLER IN OUR NORTH/WEST ON SATURDAY PER ONSET OF WEAK COLD ADVECTION...BUT OUR SOUTHEAST WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 70F WITH THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN SE MT. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN SUN AND TUE WITH LIQUID MOISTURE TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY. THE 00 UTC MODELS CONTINUED SHOWING A STRONG...NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUN...FORMING A CLOSED 500-MB LOW OVER NE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATIONS ARE WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND THEY ALSO AGREE THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SET UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT TOO...PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION. THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE MODULATED BY THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS PULLED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LARGER- SCALE FLOW...BUT AT THIS POINT A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD OF POPS FROM 70 TO 90 PERCENT IS PRUDENT. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLAY SUN AND THEN CHANCE-STYLE POPS MON AND TUE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT IT/S POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATON VERY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS. ONE QUESTION MARK IS WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW UNTIL SUN NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST...WHEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS 850- MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 0 C. THE 00 UTC GFS IS WARMER...WITH ITS PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM NOT EVEN SUPPORTING A MIX OF SNOW UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE WANING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUN NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS NOTABLE. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE 500-MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MEANDERING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING WILL EXIST IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THAT WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW WARM-UP OVER SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...AND LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SCHULTZ && .AVIATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21 UTC FROM AROUND KLVM TOWARD KBIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR WEATHER WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. SCHULTZ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 064 044/061 041/052 036/052 035/053 037/058 036/061 3/W 56/T 87/W 43/W 33/W 22/W 11/B LVM 060 038/053 035/052 031/052 032/054 033/059 034/063 6/T 78/W 95/W 32/W 22/W 11/B 11/U HDN 067 039/064 040/051 036/051 037/053 035/057 032/061 2/W 34/T 78/R 65/R 34/W 22/W 11/B MLS 069 044/065 042/048 036/046 035/049 035/052 033/057 0/B 43/T 79/R 97/O 43/W 32/W 11/B 4BQ 069 042/070 041/048 034/046 034/047 033/050 032/056 1/B 23/T 79/R 96/O 54/W 43/W 11/B BHK 067 043/064 041/046 034/043 033/044 032/048 030/054 0/B 22/T 79/R 97/O 54/W 32/W 11/B SHR 067 039/066 039/048 033/048 033/049 031/053 031/058 2/W 23/T 68/R 65/O 33/W 32/W 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1145 AM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING DAY ON TAP AS THE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST FORCING OF THIS TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS SHOWING 1500+ JOULES KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN. TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER. ALSO THE LATEST 12 UTC BUFR SOUNDING KEEP SHOWING THE WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH PROHIBITING THE STORMS FROM GROWING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROP QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS. VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8 INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND 17Z. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY AS A POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1145 AM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING DAY ON TAP AS THE THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO THE NORTH BUT A THE TAIL OF THE THAT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THE INSTABILITIES...CAPE...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1600-1900 JOULES KG-1 BUT LIMITING MOISTURE AND WARM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROHIBITIVE FACTORS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROP QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS. VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8 INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND 17Z. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY AS A POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
903 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 855 AM FRIDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO PREV FCST. LOWERED INIT POPS/CLOUDS AS LOOKS LIKE ACTVTY WILL BE MAINLY OVER WATER/NEAR SRN BEACHES THIS MORN. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SVR THREAT LATER THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND COLD FRONT. DECENT MIX OF INSTAB AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 150. BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF COLDER WTR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPR 70S INLAND TO UPR 60S/AROUND 70 BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE. TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 855 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS LATER TODAY CONT THRU THIS EVENING WITH SCA CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
656 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST WHILE OVER LAND A FEW BIRD BURSTS HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. THE OFFSHORE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...THOUGH BALD HEAD ISLAND COULD END UP BRUSHED BY THE CLOSEST ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT BENEATH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED (OTHER THAN ISSUANCE OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY). PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...BUT FOR THE LOCAL REGION THE THREAT APPEARS RATHER SMALL. INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...SURFACE BASED CAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG IN MOST PLACES WITH POCKETS OF CAPE > 1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE AIDED BY WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY AND DEVELOPMENT OF 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 60+ DEWPOINTS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY BODE WELL FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING AND SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 3K AND 10K FT...DEEPEST ACROSS INLAND NC COUNTIES. IT IS ABOVE THIS LAYER THAT THE AIR MASS RAPIDLY DRIES OUT...JUST AS DIURNAL CONVECTION IS BUILDING. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS QUICKLY OPENING UP AND BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED. THE TIMING BETWEEN THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE PVA IS OUT OF SYNC. INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE AREA ENDS UP WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED POP GRADIENT (HIGH NORTH LOW SOUTH) BUT EXPAND THE RANGES A BIT. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BUMP TO 50 ACROSS NORTHERN TIER. PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY DISSIPATING. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP ITS PASSAGE DRY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MINIMAL AT BEST. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS TODAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT RESULT IN LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...RIDGE HOLDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FINALLY MAKES IT WAY EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODELS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS. VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A DEEP SW FLOW RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ORIGINALLY HAD A BACKDOOR TYPE FRONT REACH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN KEPT IT NORTH BUT NOW SHOWS IT REACHING DOWN TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY TUES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.6 INCHES AS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE HANGS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURS. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW PUSHING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 1.8 INCHES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH EXACT FORECAST AS IT KEEPS CHANGING BUT DO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FIRST WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS FOR TIMING THESE FEATURES...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN AND THEREFORE MAY JUST KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PCP OVER MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS...IT COULD END UP AS ONE OF THE WETTEST APRILS IN WILMINGTON HISTORY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE MYRTLES FIRST AROUND 17Z. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY AS A POSSIBLE IMPETUS. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM FRIDAY...WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AN ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN THROUGH 9 AM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO MARINE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH TODAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT AROUND MIDDAY...FURTHER INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STIFF N-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY IN THE DAY DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT WILL FALL QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AS THE NW WIND PUSHES HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASING SPEEDS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW ON MON WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET...BEGINNING TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP SEAS MUCH MORE MANAGEABLE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A DELAY IN COLD FRONT UNTIL THURS. THEREFORE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
646 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS WELL OFFSHORE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...BUT HAVE KEPT A SMALL POP IN TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY MOVING IN OFF THE WATER. STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN 500 MB TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE OCEAN BY MID MORNING PER LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS ABOUT 2000 J/KG AND LI`S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL. THINK THE PRIME TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE ROUGHLY 20Z TO 03Z AND THINK GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...OUR NORTHERN AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED REGION FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 60S COAST TO UPPER 70S INLAND GIVEN THE INCREASING S/SSW FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE. TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE DISSIPATION OF LOW CLOUDS AS SUN ANGLE INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME SOUTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SASK...WHICH THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO BREAK OUT BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...INCREASING SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z...HOWEVER NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR AFTN HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS SCATTERING THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED WITH 1 PM OR EARLIER UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. WE WILL REMOVE ANY POPS AFTER 18Z IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT MORE TODAY...WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TOO MUCH SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A NOWCAST AND NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A LARGE...SLOW MOVING COLORADO CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE ARE GETTING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM...AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF MIX THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THERE WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SOUTHEAST INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY. WE WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG. IF WINDS STAY DECOUPLED THOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. FOR SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM SW TO NE AND THEY COULD DRY UP BEFORE PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT IT COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN ANY AREA. ON SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NE SD. IT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL WAA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION INCREASES AND PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND A VERY WINDY DAY WITH EAST WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX FROM 925 FOR MOST AREAS...SO A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...ANOTHER DREARY DAY EXPECTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AROUND A POTENT LOW DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SD. MONDAY-THURSDAY...OVERALL A SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN THE BLOCKED UPPER FLOW. WHILE THE MODELS ALL SHOW GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH DRY AIR POSSIBLY IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO PARTS OF NW MN. THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS WETTER. CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION COULD AFFECT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...SOME PRECIP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW COULD LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. THUS...HAVE POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS...BUT SOME PRECIP-FREE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE DRY CANADIAN AIR TRIES TO EXERT INFLUENCE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS ON A GIVEN DAY. KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUDS TOWARDS 00Z. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THOUGH WITH CLEARING TREND...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PJS SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
955 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO PIVOT NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST WITH AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF ILN/S EASTERN FA AROUND MIDDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND WARP AROUND SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTN. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GOOD DRYING ALLOWING INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GUSTS UP 30 MPH. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO EARLY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND THEN SUNSHINE WITH CAA. HAVE HIGHS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. A WEAK SFC FNT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NRN OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE EXTREME NRN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SAG THE FRONT TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE DESCENDING FRONT. BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE STUCK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FRONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE SAGGING FRONT ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THE MID 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY THE NORTH MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRIMARILY VFR AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DOES NOT LOOK TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BE MVFR IN MOST SITES...AND MOST DEFINITELY WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN BY THE LATE MORNING. RAP HAS A HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION AREA AND REALLY DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 15Z. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS IN THE COLD POOL ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT THE TIMING IS SIMILAR...ENDING BY 17Z WITH LOW CIGS FAVORED THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. KCMH/KLCK WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BUT COULD STAY VFR FOR A LOT OF THIS MORNING. AS NW WINDS KICK IN WITH A STRONG GUST TO 25-30KT...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY REMOVE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN IN THE EVENING UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. WEST WINDS WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE 10-20KT RANGE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE CENTER NR THE IL/IN BORDER ATTM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW AREA OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES IN. BY MID MORNING...AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SFC INSTABILITY IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF THE THUNDER. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND A H5 S/W SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE GUSTS UP 30 MPH. THE MORNING CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY AFTN CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE. A WEAK SFC FNT WILL DROP DOWN INTO NRN OHIO BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE EXTREME NRN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS SAG THE FRONT TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY. A SCATTERED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG THE DESCENDING FRONT. BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON THE WEATHER MAP. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE STUCK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FRONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE SAGGING FRONT ON SATURDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THE MID 70S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY THE NORTH MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRIMARILY VFR AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DOES NOT LOOK TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARDS THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BE MVFR IN MOST SITES...AND MOST DEFINITELY WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN BY THE LATE MORNING. RAP HAS A HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTION AREA AND REALLY DRIES THINGS OUT AFTER 15Z. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS IN THE COLD POOL ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT THE TIMING IS SIMILAR...ENDING BY 17Z WITH LOW CIGS FAVORED THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. KCMH/KLCK WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BUT COULD STAY VFR FOR A LOT OF THIS MORNING. AS NW WINDS KICK IN WITH A STRONG GUST TO 25-30KT...DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY REMOVE CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN IN THE EVENING UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY. WEST WINDS WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE 10-20KT RANGE TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
711 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET TO ALMOST ZERO IN SOME AREAS. DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE AREAS EXPERIENCING THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 9 AM THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND MIX DOWN DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS. MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35 AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8 AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 SATURDAY-MONDAY THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN. THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD. MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KRST THROUGH AROUND 1330Z THIS MORNING THEN THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. PLAN ON 4SM BR AT KSLE THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 15 TO 17 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS. THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED. WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ095-096. IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ009>011- 019-029-030. && $$ UPDATE...WETENKAMP SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...WETENKAMP HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS. MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35 AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8 AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 SATURDAY-MONDAY THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN. THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD. MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 AREAS OF FOG WILL PRODUCE VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KRST THROUGH AROUND 1330Z THIS MORNING THEN THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. PLAN ON 4SM BR AT KSLE THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE 15 TO 17 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS. THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED. WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...WETENKAMP HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN GA EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INTO EASTERN AL. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE POP/CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WAS WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KEEP ON THE DOWNWARD TREND...AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. HAVE NOTICED AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN GA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE ZONES UP NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES WILL WANE AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LOW PULL OFF TO THE NE. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS...BUT DID KNOCK THEM UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY N GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED AS SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. OF COURSE THE GFS HAS MUCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN THE EUROPEAN AND IS LIKELY OVER DONE. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL GA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL...THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABOUT 06-18Z ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS...MOST SO IN THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND MOST SO OVER N GA. AMOUNTS OF 2-2.25 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NW GA FROM ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY(ABOUT 7-11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) UNDER A WARMING AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY HIGHS. BDL && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... MOST AREAS VFR ALREADY...SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA HOWEVER I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE VFR BY 20Z...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO CHRONIC...FOG-PRONE SITES AND I DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST 8-14KT WITH GUSTS 17-24KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 3-6KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BY 12-14Z AREAWIDE AROUND 2-5KT BECOMING MORE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE INCREASING TO 4-8KT BY 16-18Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 78 52 82 57 / 30 5 0 0 ATLANTA 77 53 81 60 / 20 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 70 45 78 49 / 40 10 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 76 50 83 54 / 30 0 0 5 COLUMBUS 81 57 85 60 / 20 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 75 50 80 57 / 30 5 0 5 MACON 83 55 83 56 / 20 0 0 0 ROME 76 49 83 53 / 30 0 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 78 51 82 54 / 20 0 0 0 VIDALIA 84 61 84 58 / 10 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AREA WIDE. DEWPOINTS HAVE MANAGED TO STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND ARE ONLY NOW DROPPING INTO THE 30S. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH BROAD RIDGING TAKING PLACE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO ALBERTA CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE CWA HAS NOW PUSHED EAST INTO INDIANA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SEEN SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER MINNESOTA WITH MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SYSTEM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEAK COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND STALL AS IT REACHES THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. HI-RES MODELS AND THE LATEST RAP TRENDS ALL SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE... OMEGAS...AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE QUAD CITIES TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE SURFACE TO 850MB LAYER MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NIGHT SHIFT. WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ITS POSITION EARLY SATURDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH. SATURDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING TO 900MB AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. AN ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...BLOCKED...PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CONSUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...RESULTING IN FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AS THE SURFACE LOW FORMS A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. DEEP SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROF WILL BRING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD BE POINTED AT EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA PROVIDING FORCING FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. THE MCS SHOULD TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING EASTERN IA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS MCS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD REACH PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HAIL BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MO OR SOUTHERN IA AND CENTRAL IL AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. HOWEVER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADIC STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THIS MORNINGS WPC 3 DAY TOTAL QPF ENDING MONDAY MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG I80. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN PW/S OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. AFTER MONDAY MOST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP MORE SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S AND THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW STILL OVER HEAD. BY MID TO LATE WEEK DRY SURFACE AIR MOVING IN SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS...FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THERE STILL REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 THREAT OF FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OCCURS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY TO MIDWEEK. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO OCCUR OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH MANY OF THE AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SEEING AT LEAST MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GROSS SHORT TERM...GROSS LONG TERM...DLF AVIATION...GROSS HYDROLOGY...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 An intense upper level storm system will move on shore across the western US late this afternoon then move into the great basin and desert southwest through Tonight. The southwesterly flow at mid levels will increase across the central Rockies causing a lee surface trough to deepen across the central and southern plains. This will cause South-southwesterly winds to increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH through the day Friday. The southerly winds along with deeper mixing will help High temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the CWA. Tonight, deeper gulf moisture will begin to be transported northeast on an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. Isentropic lift will begin to increase across the southern and eastern counties of the CWA after midnight and isolated elevated thunderstorms may begin to form around 9Z and last into the mid morning hours of Saturday. However the 6Z run of the NAM model now shows the more favorable isentropic lift developing east of the CWA after 12Z. MUCAPES are forecasted to increase to 500 to 1000 j/kg along and south of I-35. Effective vertical wind shear above the LFC to the EL will also increase to 30 to 35 KTS across eastern KS by 12Z SAT. If elevated thunderstorms develop late Tonight, then some of the elevated thunderstorms may produce quarter size hail along and south of I-35. Any elevated thunderstorms north of I-35 that manage to develop Tonight, where the MUCAPE will only be 200-600 J/kg, may produce small hail. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower to mid 50s given southerly winds and low-level moisture advection through the night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Some early day convection may linger across southeast portions of the county warning area and will maintain low end pops across the eastern 1/3 of the cwa in the morning before convection chances shift off to the east. For the remainder of the day...a strengthening elevated mixed layer should suppress convective potential over most of the cwa except in the far western counties near/just beyond peak heating where highs in the upper 80s and convergence may be erode/breach capping inversion with isolated or scattered convection. Otherwise a very warm and breezy day across the area with highs mainly in the low to middle 80s. For Saturday night...the main upper level trough will begin to rotate out into the high plains of southeast CO with another weaker shortwave moving northeast across the cwa in southwest flow aloft. This continues to be slightly slower than previous runs...and with the delay in stronger forcing aloft and retreating dryline to the west...uncertainty still exists as to how the severe convection that forms off the dryline late in the day will be sustained as it moves northeastward towards/into the cwa through the evening/overnight. Other convection...mainly elevated in association with the weaker shortwave...should develop overnight as llvl jet also increases. This convection could pose a large hail threat. Will maintain higher end chance pops. The most concentrated and potentially strongest convection appears to be on Sunday as the main shortwave lobe over southwest KS/northwest OK region at 12z Sunday...lifts northeastward across KS through the day. Moderate instability develops just ahead of the dry slot across the eastern half of the cwa by midday and Bulk shear dramatically increases west to east as the upper trough and associated jet lifts out across the area with all modes of severe weather possible...although severe wind and hail would be primary. The dry slot spreads further east of the remainder of the cwa into the evening with rapidly decreasing chances for thunderstorms and severe weather. The upper low will pivot eastward slowly and traverse the cwa through into Monday night and with cooler air and circulation aloft... could see enough destabilization to warrant the mention of thunder through the daytime hours Monday. Otherwise will maintain shower potential through mid week as main upper trough and then secondary northwest flow shortwaves eventually move across the area. After high temps in the 70s on Sunday...will cool highs into mainly the 60s Monday....then mainly the 50s and lower 60s on through Thursday. Lows should generally be in the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1209 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 VFR conditions prevail at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Wind gusts diminish this evening with short term guidance developing scattered TS 12-18Z near KTOP/KFOE. Inserted VCTS with some uncertainty on coverage and placement of activity. South winds back overnight to the southwest increasing from 12-18Z between 13 kts and 17 kts sustained with gusts near 26 kts. Low confidence in LLWS developing overnight as winds up to 1500 ft are near 40 kts. Will continue to monitor surface wind speeds in case they weaken lower than current forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 912 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Morning sounding at KTOP revealed ample amount of subsidence air throughout the column. Soundings from the RUC and NAM indicate strong mixing through 800 MB by late afternoon, bring RH values lower to the upper teens and near 20 percent. Wind gusts across the north central areas average between 15 and 20 mph sustained with gusts up to 30 mph during the late afternoon. Fire weather partners agreed that the fuels remain critical at this time and will go ahead with a Red Flag Warning for north central and portions of northeast Kansas today. Please see the product for more information. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010- 020>022-034>037. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...63 AVIATION...Bowen FIRE WEATHER...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS FOUND ITS WAY TO THE COAST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE A RETREAT BACK TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF WILL FURTHER MOVE THE FRONT BEYOND AEX LATE TNITE. THE REINTRODUCTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG FORMATION LATE TNITE. MIXING SHOULD PRECLUDE THIS FOG FROM LOWERING VIS BELOW MVFR. WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE TODAY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TNITE...MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... FRESHENED UP FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND DEWPOINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING NEAR 50 ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A BLEND OF LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP ON THIS DRIER AIR. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MVFR/LOWER CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHROUDS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH HELPING PUSH CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE SITES BY LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER A PLEASANT FLYING DAY SHOULD LINGER WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PASSING OVERHEAD. SOME LIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FORECAST...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE THIS. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. SO WILL CONTINUE TO TIME SHOWER AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN ALONG THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...HOWEVER BULK OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DID REQUIRE A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH A 40KT LOW-LEVEL JET. RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR OF 60KT PLUS AND HELICITY VALUES GREATER THE 250. WHILE THE WORST OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...ABOVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH IT IN THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A TREND THAT STARTED WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY CONTINUES WITH THE OOZ GUIDANCE IN THAT THE LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY SLOWS DOWN...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR FOR A MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. ALSO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...THUS KEEPING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT ONCE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED...WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE POPS SOMETIMES OVER THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH EVERYTHING SLOWING DOWN AND THE POTENCY OF THE FRONT LOOKING TO BE DIMINISHED DID HAVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. MARINE... WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING SOMETIMES THIS WEEKEND. BRAZZELL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 83 64 81 68 81 / 20 10 10 10 20 KBPT 83 65 80 69 80 / 10 10 10 10 20 KAEX 82 59 84 66 83 / 0 10 10 10 30 KLFT 83 64 82 68 80 / 20 10 10 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z. THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE UPPER 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE (ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S NE...TO AROUND 70 SW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN. TODAYS MODELS TAKE MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH & WEST OF THE MTS TUE / WED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DID. FORECAST BECOMES RATHER PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE INITIAL COOL WEDGE THAT SETS UP TUES WITH A SECONDARY EAST COAST SHOOTER DEVELOPS ALLOWING A TRIPLE POINT TO MOVE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC ERLY WED. WHAT THIS CHANGE DOES IS ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO VA PULLING WARMER & MORE HUMID AIR NORTH (BUT HOW FAR GIVEN PTNTL PIEDMONT WEDGE???). WILL BE ADDING CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS SERN SECTIONS WED AFTRN. THIS COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THURSDAY TAPPING SOME OF THE GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. UPSHOT...A RATHER WET PERIOD TUES THROUGH THUSRDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. BEST CHCS FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRNT WED NIGHT AND THURS. DRYING OUT FRI. HIGHS TUE L-M60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH. HIGHS WED/THU/FRI U60S-M70S. LOWS MON NITE U40S-M50S. OTW...GNRLY 50-60. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY. && .MARINE... GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY / RIVERS / CURRITUCK NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS THE BAY...SO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THERE. EXPT ABT A 2-4 HR PRD OF GUSTINESS (UP TO 30 KTS) ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS SAT AFTRN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS OUT NR 20 NM SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS WTRS SAT AFTRN ALLOWING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TO DMNSH THRU SAT EVENING. NEXT FRNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT PRODUCING A 3-6 HR SURGE OF CAA SEEN DOWN THE BAY LATE SAT NIGHT...STRNGST OVR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN WNDS BCMG NE SUNDAY THEN E BY MONDAY. HIGH PROB FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WNDS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 635-636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/DAP MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z. THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE UPPER 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE (ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S NE...TO AROUND 70 SW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN. TODAYS MODELS TAKE MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH & WEST OF THE MTS TUE / WED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DID. FORECAST BECOMES RATHER PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE INITIAL COOL WEDGE THAT SETS UP TUES WITH A SECONDARY EAST COAST SHOOTER DEVELOPS ALLOWING A TRIPLE POINT TO MOVE ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC ERLY WED. WHAT THIS CHANGE DOES IS ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO VA PULLING WARMER & MORE HUMID AIR NORTH (BUT HOW FAR GIVEN PTNTL PIEDMONT WEDGE???). WILL BE ADDING CHANCE OF TSTORMS ACROSS SERN SECTIONS WED AFTRN. THIS COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN THURSDAY TAPPING SOME OF THE GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. UPSHOT...A RATHER WET PERIOD TUES THROUGH THUSRDAY WITH LIKELY POPS. BEST CHCS FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRNT WED NIGHT AND THURS. DRYING OUT FRI. HIGHS TUE L-M60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH. HIGHS WED/THU/FRI U60S-M70S. LOWS MON NITE U40S-M50S. OTW...GNRLY 50-60. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY. && .MARINE... GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FRONT WILL CONT THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY / RIVERS / CURRITUCK NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS THE BAY...SO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THERE. EXPT ABT A 2-4 HR PRD OF GUSTINESS (UP TO 30 KTS) ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS SAT AFTRN WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS OUT NR 20 NM SO SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS WTRS SAT AFTRN ALLOWING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TO DMNSH THRU SAT EVENING. NEXT FRNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NIGHT PRODUCING A 3-6 HR SURGE OF CAA SEEN DOWN THE BAY LATE SAT NIGHT...STRNGST OVR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RESULTS IN WNDS BCMG NE SUNDAY THEN E BY MONDAY. HIGH PROB FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WNDS BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 635-636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/DAP MARINE...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
318 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXITS THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR LAKE ERIE...WITH A ~4MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL VA/NC. A COLD FRONT (PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S OVER S-CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE N OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY CONVEYOR PUNCHING INTO WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS IT OVERSPREADS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER ROBUST VERTICAL MOTION. THE 25/17Z HRRR TRACKS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LARGELY OFF THE COAST BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE THE DRY BOUNDARY OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICAL AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER SPC ANALYSIS IS 40-50KT AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER W-CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END W-E THROUGH 01Z. THE SKY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM W-E DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO THE UPPER 50S SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE (ESPECIALLY N) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHC POP WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S NE (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST)...TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND W OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT N. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC POPS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 60S NE...TO AROUND 70 SW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PRD NEXT WEEK. TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL MON AFTN WHEN THE STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON MORN DRY AS HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH IS SLOW TO RETREAT. LOWS M40S-L50S. MAIN UPR LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM NATIONS MID SECTION MONDAY TO THE OHIO/TN VLLY WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SCNDARY LOW DVLPNG OVR THE MID ATLNTC REGION THURS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING DEEPEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LAGGING UPR LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THIS PRD. PRIME OF WHICH WILL BE THE LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW PROGGED TO HOVER SOMEWHERE ARND THE NC/VA BORDER TUES THRU THURS. THE UNCERTAINTY HERE WILL MAKE A PROBLEMATIC FORECAST FOR TMPS...WIND DIRECTION AND PCPN TYPE (I.E. CONVECTIVE VS STRATI FORM). BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY THAT THE TUES THRU WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WETTEST...SO HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THEN. OTW...KEPT PCPN SHOWERS CWA WIDE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. COULD VRY WELL END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATI FORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IF A COOL E-NE WEDGE SETS UP AS WELL AS HAVING TO ADD THUNDER TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION FARTHER NORTH. ALL-IN-ALL...EXPECT A COOL AND WET PRD. HIGHS GNRLLY FROM THE L-M60S NORTHERN HALF OF FA TO U60S-L70S SOUTHERN HALF. LOWS U40S- M50S. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LO PRES CROSSES THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN/EVE RESULTING IN SHRA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT (W/PTNTL MVFR CIGS)...ALONG WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SOUTH OF KRIC. STRONG WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING OUT TNGT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH VFR CONDS SAT INTO SUN. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SFC HI PRES GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF THE CST THROUGH THE MRNG HRS... RESULTING IN LGT/VRB WNDS BECOMING SSE. LO PRES FM THE W APPROACHES/DRAWS CLOSER BY THIS AFTN. SSE WNDS INCRS TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WTRS...(LEADING TO SCAS ON PORTIONS OF THE RIVERS AND ON THE BAY). LO PRES EXITS THE CST AFT MDNGT TNGT...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A WINDSHIFT TO THE WNW AND A SURGE IN SPEEDS (ESP OVR THE BAY/RIVERS AND FAR NRN OCN WTRS). CONTG SCAS ON THE BAY THROUGH SAT MRNG...ADDING SCAS ON NRN TWO OCN ZONES FM LT TNGT THROUGH SAT MRNG. LWRG SPEEDS BY SAT AFTN...CONTG THROUGH SAT EVE. A CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS SAT NGT...RESULTING IN NNW WNDS INCRSG TO ARND SCAS (ESP NRN PORTIONS). HI PROB FOR A PROLONGED PD OF ONSHORE WNDS BEGINNING LATE IN THE WKND AND CONTG INTO MID NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 635-636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/DAP MARINE...ALB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 Early this morning, a surface ridge axis was slowly moving from west to east across the CWA, with winds gradually turning to the southwest across portions of the CWA. Directly under the ridge axis, light fog had been reported. Forecast concerns moving into next week are focused on convection challenges this weekend and lingering precipitation potential and below normal temperatures next week. The story for today will be the slow and gradual return of moisture into the region, with a slight enhancement to the fire danger risk this afternoon. Low level winds, in response to troughing over the West Coast, will turn southwesterly by mid-day. Soundings indicate temperatures will have the potential to climb into the upper 70s to even lower 80s in some locations. As the sfc pressure gradient tightens this afternoon, we`ll begin to see an increase in wind gusts. Models have had a tendency to overestimate boundary layer moisture this Spring, and again feel this may be possible later today based on soundings and upstream obs. Have tempered dew points this afternoon more in line with the RAP which has done well with aftn mixing. The resultant RH values and winds are close to red flag criteria, however rainfall on Thursday and marginal winds should limit the fire danger risk for most areas. A more active period of weather begins as tonight. Later tonight, as heights continue to rise in the Plains, a strong EML will advect NE into the region. Isentropic plots along the 305-310K sfc indicate a sharp layer of ascent toward daybreak Saturday. Scattered convection may develop along and south of the I-70 corridor. Elevated CAPE values may approach 1000 J/KG, and the sharp increase in mid- level lapse rates could yield increased chances marginally SVR hail for a few hours Saturday morning. Saturday: A large warm sector is expected to develop across the Plains on Saturday, with a rather stout EML overhead. Locally, morning convection may continue to fester into the late morning hours of Saturday across central Missouri as a surface warm front develops and lifts northward. Most attention will be focused further west and southwest along a developed dry line across the Southern Plains. Locally, soundings indicate a stout cap in place that should prevent any surface based convection from forming through the daytime hours of Saturday. Saturday night: While uncertainties exist on the areal coverage of storms Saturday evening, we`ll have two areas to monitor for convection. The first area found along the dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma, with the second along the elevated boundary over NE/IA/MO corridor. The latest guidance continues to hint at later convective development into the evening hours across the Southern Plains, as a nose of an intense mid-level jet streak lifts into the Plains. Further NE, once the LLJ intensifies after midnight, it`s looking more and more likely that we`ll have the development of elevated convection over the northern half of the CWA towards daybreak Sunday. Given strong shear profiles and modest CAPE, elevated hail producing supercells would be possible. Sunday: A very busy day is anticipated across the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday as an upper low ejects eastward. Convection that develops over Kansas/Oklahoma Saturday night should continue to track eastward Sunday morning. Considerable uncertainty on the severity of this activity as it moves eastward toward the CWA. However it should be noted that it may be very loosely elevated as it reaches the area after daybreak, with model progs suggesting the quick potential to become sfc based by mid-morning. Meanwhile, we may still be dealing with convection on the nose of the LLJ across the northern CWA. The surface dryline is anticipated to crawl eastward by Sunday afternoon and depending on the amount of convective debris and destabilization may set the stage for additional rounds of severe convection both early and then later in the afternoon and evening off the dryline. Wind shear will be more than adequate for severe convection, with multiple types of severe weather possible. Given the weekend timing, it will be important to continue to monitor the forecast moving into the weekend. Next week: The upper low will continue to deepen, becoming vertically stacked near the local area as early as Tuesday. Monday`s forecast remains highly uncertain, and we`ll need to wait for convection to clear on Sunday to have a more clear picture. Given the potential for a vertically stacked upper low near the area on Tuesday, we`ll have to monitor the potential for additional convection on Tuesday. Unfortunately, with this upper low expected to linger over the Great Lakes into next weekend, be prepared for below normal temperatures to start the first few days of May. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 102 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the daylight and much, if not all, of overnight hours. Southwest wind will persist through the day backing to the south late tonight as a surface high slides farther east. As this occurs moisture, and clouds, will start to move back in early Saturday morning. This will likely result in VFR low to mid-level clouds moving in Saturday morning that might be accompanied by some thunderstorms. Confidence in coverage for morning storms is low though. Otherwise, expect the low level jet, which will bring the moisture and storms, will also result in a potential issue with low level wind shear Saturday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDDLE EVENING. SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ON TAP AS THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADO WATCH TO THE NORTH AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST FORCING OF THIS TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS SHOWING 1200 TO 1500+ J-KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF SOUTHPORT TO BURGAW LINE. TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER WHICH IS KEEPING CAPES AROUND THE 1000 J-KG-1. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...IF YOU DO LIKE THE IDEA OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER A WEEKEND...THIS COULD BE AN EXQUISITE 2-DAY PERIOD UPCOMING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PROVIDING A DEEP AND DRY WNW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE LOCAL COLUMN. RETURN FLOW OF WIND CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH AS IT BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE...WILL BRING INCREASING ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE NOT PLANNED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. AN A-TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE IN BETWEEN GETS PINCHED OFF BY TUESDAY TRANSITIONING PATTERN FROM OMEGA BLOCK TO A HIGH-OVER-LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN. WE THEN LOOK TO THE WEST FOR OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES...AND DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAGE WHEN AND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP. EVENTUALLY THINGS WILL SHUNT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE GET INTO THE RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INC IN POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE NO AIR MASS CHANGES SO TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...REMAINING GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO BY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND AS CLOUDS INCREASE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MILD...AND MAY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE SAME REASON. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 19Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE BOUTS OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST WITH THE MAX INSTABILITY AND THE SECOND WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 02Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE BUMPIEST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND MARINE PERIOD WILL BE EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. STIFF NORTH WINDS EARLY SATURDAY HOWEVER WILL QUICKLY EASE THEN VEER TO SSW BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES OFFSHORE. 2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS VERY WEAK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH WIND AND WAVES AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS MAINTAINED AND A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE INCREASE IN BOTH MAY BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107 INLAND NEW HANOVER COUNTY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DRH/43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON ON TAP AS THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADO WATCH TO THE NORTH AND NO CONVECTION AT ALL TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE STRONGEST FORCING OF THIS TROUGH IS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY THE 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE IS SHOWING 1200 TO 1500+ J-KG-1 OVER ALL THE AREAS EAST OF A MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF SOUTHPORT TO BURGAW LINE. TO THE EAST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MARINE LAYER WHICH IS KEEPING CAPES AROUND THE 1000 J-KG-1. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN TIER MAINLY NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO TOPSAIL LINE WITH PROBABILITIES DROPPING AS ONE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DROPS QUICKLY BY THE EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL BACK TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL RUN LESS THAN A HALF INCH THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM SPRING SUNSHINE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80. SHOULD SEE LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEAR CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TAKING SHAPE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ALLOWING A MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW PCP WATER VALUES TO CREEP UP OVER .75 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING BUT ANY CLOUDS OR PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGE IN BETWEEN GETS PINCHED OFF BY TUESDAY TRANSITIONING PATTERN FROM OMEGA BLOCK TO A HIGH-OVER-LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BRING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN. WE THEN LOOK TO THE WEST FOR OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES...AND DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION IT IS DIFFICULT TO GAGE WHEN AND HOW QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP. EVENTUALLY THINGS WILL SHUNT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE GET INTO THE RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INC IN POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE NO AIR MASS CHANGES SO TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...REMAINING GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO BY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND AS CLOUDS INCREASE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MILD...AND MAY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE SAME REASON. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A VORT MAX AND TENANT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS TWO SEPARATE BOUTS OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST WITH THE MAX INSTABILITY AND THE SECOND WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY IFR IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PREDOMINATELY MVFR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 02Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT HOWEVER AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS VERY WEAK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH WIND AND WAVES AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH IS MAINTAINED AND A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE INCREASE IN BOTH MAY BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
152 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...INIT WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INSTAB INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA...SOME POSS SEVERE WILL SPREAD IN LATER THIS AFTN AS UPR SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER LIFT. DECENT MIX OF INSTAB AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 150. BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF COLDER WTR. INCREASED POPS A BIT NRN TIER TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOWER 70S BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE. TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BRING CONDITIONS TO SUB-VFR. EXPECT TS BTW 22Z TO 04Z PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UP TO 20 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS CAN OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE TAF SITES...CEILING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH SKIES CLEARING BY 06Z. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. CONT SCA HEAD LINE SRN AND CNTRL CSTL WTRS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SCA FOR CNTRL WTRS INTO SAT MORN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...WL DECIDE AFTER LOOKING AT ALL 12Z GUIDANCE. PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/BM MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...INIT WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INSTAB INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA...SOME POSS SEVERE WILL SPREAD IN LATER THIS AFTN AS UPR SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER LIFT. DECENT MIX OF INSTAB AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...CANT RULE OUT ISOLD TORN EITHER WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 150. BEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE N AND INLAND AREAS AS LOCATIONS CLOSER TO CST MAY HAVE SIGNIF LESS INSTAB DUE TO FLOW OFF COLDER WTR. INCREASED POPS A BIT NRN TIER TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 INLAND TO LOWER 70S BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...PER LATEST RAP AND GFS/NAM...THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 03Z OR 04Z WITH RAPID CLEARING GIVING A DRY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MIXING...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...FRIDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE OF NC SAT MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES. SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER MON ESPECIALLY INLAND AND CONTINUE SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HWY 17 IN THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHANCE SE. TUES THROUGH THURS LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPPER LOW STALLS NEAR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUES INTO THURS HOWEVER CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE NOT FORMED AS HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE...THINK CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WILL JUST HAVE VCTS FOR THE 20Z TO 03Z PERIOD. S/SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUES WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. CONT SCA HEAD LINE SRN AND CNTRL CSTL WTRS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SCA FOR CNTRL WTRS INTO SAT MORN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...WL DECIDE AFTER LOOKING AT ALL 12Z GUIDANCE. PREV DISC...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS JUST 2 TO 3 FEET. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT 2 FEET TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY 06Z...AS S/SW WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN WAVE MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 FEET LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUE/... AS OF 330 AM FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS EARLY SAT SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUN. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TUES WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...RF/CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 CURRENT VIS SHOWING THINNING/DISSIPATION ALONG ROUGHLY A PARK RAPIDS- CROOKSTON-CAVALIER LINE WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE HAS ERODED AF FAR NORTH TO CLEAR OUT VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON. NOW FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THIS WILL SCOUR OUT BY SUNSET AND HAVE BEGAN REDUCING SKY COVER IN AFTN HOURS. FCST DISCUSSION UPDATED MAINLY FOR ADDITION OF NEW TAF DISCUSSION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE DISSIPATION OF LOW CLOUDS AS SUN ANGLE INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING SOME SOUTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SASK...WHICH THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. HRRR DOES SHOW THIS CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO BREAK OUT BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...INCREASING SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z...HOWEVER NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR AFTN HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS SCATTERING THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED WITH 1 PM OR EARLIER UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. WE WILL REMOVE ANY POPS AFTER 18Z IN THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT MORE TODAY...WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TOO MUCH SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A NOWCAST AND NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND A LARGE...SLOW MOVING COLORADO CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE ARE GETTING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM...AND PREFER A GFS/ECMWF MIX THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TODAY...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THERE WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SOUTHEAST INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY. WE WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG. IF WINDS STAY DECOUPLED THOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. FOR SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY TO WINDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM SW TO NE AND THEY COULD DRY UP BEFORE PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT IT COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN ANY AREA. ON SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NE SD. IT APPEARS THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL WAA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION INCREASES AND PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...AND A VERY WINDY DAY WITH EAST WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX FROM 925 FOR MOST AREAS...SO A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...ANOTHER DREARY DAY EXPECTED. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AROUND A POTENT LOW DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SD. MONDAY-THURSDAY...OVERALL A SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN THE BLOCKED UPPER FLOW. WHILE THE MODELS ALL SHOW GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DEEPER MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH DRY AIR POSSIBLY IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO PARTS OF NW MN. THE GEM AND ESPECIALLY ECMWF BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS WETTER. CONVECTION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION COULD AFFECT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS WELL. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...SOME PRECIP ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW COULD LINGER INTO MID-WEEK. THUS...HAVE POPS IN FOR MOST PERIODS...BUT SOME PRECIP-FREE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE DRY CANADIAN AIR TRIES TO EXERT INFLUENCE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS ON A GIVEN DAY. KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 AREA OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS/STRATOCU ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KMOT TO KBWP TO KSTC WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SOMETIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. SOME BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .AVIATION... VFR TODAY...WITH MVFR STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATUS TO STAY ABOVE 020 IN METROPLEX AND BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. AT WACO...GUIDANCE HAS MORE SPREAD...WITH GFS/NAM SUGGESTING INITIALLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG SFC WARM FRONT BEFORE 09Z THAT COULD BE FOG OR IFR. MODELS THEN LIFT CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE AS MOISTURE DEEPENS. RAP SUGGESTS STRATUS AS DOES TTU WRF. WILL KEEP LOW MVFR STRATUS FOR NOW. TSRA THREAT APPEARS LOW FOR METRO TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR WACO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. EXTENT OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT 12Z MODELS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014/ LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKENDS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND CONFIDENCE GROWS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS OF THE DRYLINE TO SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WEST OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR OUR CWA IS THE TIMING OF ANY EASTWARD MOVING STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE CWA AND THE STRENGTH OF A CAP EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 03Z WHERE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN. THIS WINDOW WILL ALSO BE AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND LCLS BEGIN TO LOWER. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT BEFORE THE CAP WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...ENDING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN TURN TO ELEVATED CONVECTION. INCREASING LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8-8.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL FROM THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON SEVERE CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AND THEREFORE THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY..THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE INITIAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS DUE TO A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. IT IS SOMETIMES SAID THAT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STORMS CAN BE NEGATIVE FOR AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT ON SUNDAY THIS WILL IMPROVE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED AROUND 10KFT WILL FALL INTO THE CAP. AIR WITHIN THIS LAYER IS DRY AND WARM...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION ENCOUNTERS THIS...THE AIR WILL COOL AND MOISTEN AS RAIN EVAPORATES. THEREFORE...COOLING BY PRECIPITATION AND LIFTING OF THE CAP AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE THE CAP AROUND 18-19Z FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THEN THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THE ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO RECOVER BY THE AFTERNOON FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL...WITH THE NAM INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BY MID-DAY. THIS ISNT TOO WARM...BUT THESE TEMPS WILL WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE NAMS FORECAST IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-3 HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT LESS. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FINED TUNED AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THERE IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WHAT EXACT ROLE THAT WILL PLAY ON AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. NORTH FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS STUCK IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HAMPSHIRE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 64 88 71 90 / 0 0 5 40 40 WACO, TX 85 61 86 68 89 / 0 0 5 20 20 PARIS, TX 80 54 86 68 80 / 0 0 5 40 60 DENTON, TX 84 60 86 71 87 / 0 5 5 40 30 MCKINNEY, TX 83 59 87 71 87 / 0 0 5 40 40 DALLAS, TX 85 64 89 71 90 / 0 0 5 40 40 TERRELL, TX 82 58 86 69 84 / 0 0 5 30 50 CORSICANA, TX 85 60 86 71 85 / 0 0 5 20 40 TEMPLE, TX 86 64 87 70 89 / 0 0 5 20 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 85 60 90 70 88 / 0 5 10 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
409 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 405 PM EDT FRIDAY... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS OVER LAKE ERIE AT 3PM...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN INTO LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...LOCAL WRF AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS FRONT AND THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z/10PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS TRANSITIONING FROM DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS MORE TO LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MODEL WERE SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS AND SOME DECENT PRESSURE RISES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. THE AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND IS NOT MUCH COOLER...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND REMAIN IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SAT NIGHT AS A RESIDUAL WEAK BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE CONTROL. MAY SEE A RENEGADE -SHRA ACROSS THE EXTREME NW SAT EVENING OTRW MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OMEGA BLOCK ALOFT GAINS AMPLITUDE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COMPLICATED SCENARIO GIVEN A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOISTURE INCREASING UNDER THE SHARP RIDGING ALOFT. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY PLAY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AIR HOLDING THE LOW LEVELS DRY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY MONDAY WHEN GUIDANCE BRINGS A FAINT MID LEVEL WAVE UP UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOWLY INCREASING ISENT LIFT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST/SE. RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ON MONDAY AS A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING WEDGE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS DISORGANIZED FOR THE MOST PART. WILL RUN WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND VEERING ALOFT FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S SUNDAY PROVIDED ENOUGH INSOLATION...THEN COOLER PER ONLY 60S WITHIN THE WEDGE AREA IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS AND 70-75 PERIMETER SOUTH AND SW ZONES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT FRIDAY... ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IN STORE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND THEN SPIRALS VERY SLOWLY NE REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AN INCREASING FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OVER AND TO THE EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DEVELOPING WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON WILL GET DEEPLY ENTRENCHED MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPCLY TUESDAY AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSES AND FORMS A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE COASTAL WARM FRONT. THIS COOL POOL SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BEFORE PERHAPS WARM ADVECTION PUNCHES IT OUT LATER WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT ALOFT PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERRUNNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN GOING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN POSSIBLY A MORE ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WED WEST AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES EAST PER GFS/EC BLEND. PENDING LATER RUNS...THIS COULD BRING SOME WATER ISSUES TO SPOTS DESPITE CURRENT DRYNESS PER LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. ALSO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH COULD POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT AS WELL PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE LIFTS OUT BY WED EVENING. OTRW BUMPING POPS FROM CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT TO LIKELYS TUE AND CATEGORICAL INTO WED AFTERNOON. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO FINALLY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THU BUT LACKING MOISTURE BY THEN SO KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS. SHOULD DRY OUT FURTHER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH ANY ISOLATED SHRA CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR NW AT BEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY UNDER THE WEDGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A VERY COOL DAY ON TUE AND MUCH OF WED BEFORE SEEING READINGS SURGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE WED AFTERNOON. THUS PLAN TO STAY WELL BELOW MOS/HPC ESPCLY ON TUE AND ACROSS THE NORTH WED. SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE HIGHS THU THEN COOLER POST FRONTAL FRI WITH MOST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH 22Z/6PM. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY 22Z/6PM WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...AND SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...DIMINISHING BY SUNSET SATURDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY MONDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW VFR WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING LATE MONDAY...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE EVEN BETTER ON TUESDAY DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...JC/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG WEST OF MISS RIVER...AND AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTH FOR WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS. MONITORING THE GOES FOG PRODUCT AND OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...A SKINNY SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE...AND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLELS I-35. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT...A LIGHT SWRLY WIND FLOW IS PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BETWEEN I-35 AND THE MISS RIVER...WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...FOG HAS SET IN WITH 1/4-1/2SM IN CALM WINDS. GOES IR SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRLY FLOW OVER SD/NEB AT 07Z CAUSING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD...HEADING FOR THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THOSE ELEMENTS ARE THINNING AND WARMING. 25.00Z RAOBS CAPTURED THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MOISTURE AT KMPX...AND SOME VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS /TO 700MB/ WHERE FOUND IN THE DAKOTAS AT KBIS/KABR. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WEBCAMS WEST OF MISS RIVER DONT SUGGEST THE FOG IS VERY WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW...BUT WE ARE HEADING INTO PRIME FOG TIME. LATEST RAP SURFACE FORECASTS BRING THE N-S WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 8 AM OR SO. WOULD THINK THIS AND SUN WILL BEGIN A RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE FOG. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL STATEMENTS AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SUN OR FILTERED SUN TODAY WITH NORTHCENTRAL WI STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING TO 800-850 MB IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD DROP TO LOWER 30S WITH THIS MIXING DEPTH...BUT WITH RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT IT A BIT HIGHER...MID 30S. IN ANY CASE...THIS BRINGS THE MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 30S...GOOD DRYING WEATHER. SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 SATURDAY-MONDAY THIS PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENERGY NOW OVER THE WRN CONUS MIGRATING IN AND AFFECTING THE CENTRAL U.S. THERE IS GENERALLY VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE BIGGER PICTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE MAIN MESSAGE IS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN PROMOTING SWOLLEN/FLOODING RIVERS...WET FARMER FIELDS...AND VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY THE NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRIER HUDSONS BAY HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN. THERE IS SOME LIMITED 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER SERN MN / NERN IA TO PROMOTE A THUNDER CHANCE. THE LATEST TWO NAM WRF RUNS HAVE A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...ACROSS NRN WI. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS HAVE ALSO SPLASHED SOME RAIN FALL FURTHER NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS RAIN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD. MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERY UNORGANIZED RAIN CHANCES INTO WI. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND RAIN BAND MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INSTABILITY AGAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE NEAR NIL. IT IS THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL...AND THE WELL-AGREED UPON MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW/...SUPPLIED BY A RICH OPEN GULF OF MEXICO FETCH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITH DETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATION REGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 RELATIVELY QUIET/DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PLAN ON THESE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. A RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH VFR VSBY. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SWING MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID- LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 14KFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AFTER 14-15Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014 MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED AND RISING FROM THE RECENT RAINS. THESE RISES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. DO EXPECT THE MISS RIVER TO AGAIN RISE OR REMAIN ELEVATED. WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD THINK RIVERS WILL AGAIN RISE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT THIS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR AS THE RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN SOME OF THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS. THIS PROVIDES SOME INFORMATION ON HOW THE RAINS MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND ELEVATED RIVERS...THEN THE RAINFALL MONDAY...MANY RIVERS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WETENKAMP SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...DAS HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT