Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/22/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POP GRIDS AND BRING IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER SUNSET. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
...INCREASING WINDS FOR TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK PV ANOMALY EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING COVERAGE HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
AND LACK OF MOISTURE HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HRRR HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING IN. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR
TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GFS IS DRIER WITH SFC DEW
POINTS (UPPER 20S)...WHILE NAM ACTUALLY INCREASES THEM IN THE
AFTERNOON (30S TO AROUND 40) AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND -SHRA/VIRGA
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST 4KM WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS MOISTENING
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS WHICH RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 18-25% RANGE...TOO HIGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. QUITE A BIT OF HUERFANO COUNTY HAD SOME GOOD RAIN FROM
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...SO THE MOST LIKE SPOTS FOR MARGINAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE PUEBLO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN EL PASO...AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. LOCAL
WRF IS SLOW TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DURATION TO LESS THAN THE 3 HR
REQUIRED MINIMUM. WITH ALL THESE MARGINAL CRITERIA...DECIDED NOT TO
HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS MORE HIGH RES MODELS BEGIN TO RESOLVE THESE FINER
DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH BASED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND ONLY SOME BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTTY AREAS. A MARGINALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES
WILL ONLY BE RUNNING AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO POPS...TEMPERATURES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR EASTERN SECTIONS AT TIMES.
RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PAINTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
THEN BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME WILL DEPICT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME
IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.
NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE VARYING FORECAST TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GFS FURTHEST SOUTH AND ECMWF AND DGEX FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
18Z NEXT MONDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.
FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW WEAK CELLS MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITIES OF ONE OF THESE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LOOKS TOO SMALL AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THEY COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
START AT THE KCOS AND KALS TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING TO
AROUND THE NOON HOUR. GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SET
IN AT KPUB. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
UPPER LOW OVER SE CO/NW NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INSTABILITY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND APPEARS THAT TAIL END OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH MAY BE AIDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS NW CO. THIS
LATTER FEATURE WILL CLIP THROUGH NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RUN-OFF
PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR WHERE RAINFALL OCCURED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
RADAR ESTIMATES COMPARED WITH GAGES IN THE AREA SUGGEST THAT
PORTIONS OF THE BURN SCAR MAY HAVE RECEIVED .50 TO .70 OF RAINFALL.
THIS OCCURRED SLOWLY THOUGH WITH RATES UNDER .10 TO .20 PER
HOUR...SO NO PROBLEMS WERE NOTED. HOWEVER IF THIS AREA WERE TO GET
HIT WITH A STRONGER CELL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THE SATURATED
GROUND MAY RESULT IN SOME QUICK RUN-OFF PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE
STABLE...SO RISK SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT.
A LITTLE BETTER HEATING HAS BEEN REALIZED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND LATEST HRRR DROPS THEM INTO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON THE INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH. WHILE CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER CELL IMPACTING THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THINK THIS
CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND IF IT DID WOULD PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN SOME MINOR RUN-OFF ISSUES AT BEST.
ALSO...WATCHING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF THE STATE IN VCNTY OF UPPER
LOW...WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SHORT LIVED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO/LANDSPOUT. SO
FAR...UPDRAFT STRENGTHS HAVEN`T BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO STRETCH ANY
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY AS SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A POCKET OF HIGH NON-SUPERCELL TOR INDICES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO THESE THREATS SHOULD QUICKLY
COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ON MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. -KT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS LONGER TERM THINKING WITH
MAIN LONGER TERM ISSUES BEING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND...INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT VARYING DEGREES OF ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY)...PRIMARILY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WFO
PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
IN ADDITION...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS CLOSELY.
SWITCHING FOCUS TO TEMPERATURES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT BOTH MINIMUM
AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. IFR TO EVEN LOCAL LIFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WHERE
HEAVY WET SNOW/GRAUPEL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CIGS/VIS WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN VFR
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE
WILL ALSO CARRY THE THREAT OF SOME SMALL HAIL. CLEARING SKIES WILL
SET IN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. TRENDED THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HIGH-RES RUNS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON OUR PIDDLY CONVECTION.
A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA JUNTA WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BOTH
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SHOWER ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY FROM
FREMONT COUNTY...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TRINIDAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY...FEEL THAT THESE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PROVIDES UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
PEAKS ABOVE 11 KFT MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE VERY HIGHEST OF MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
A FEW QUICK BURSTS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER SMALL CELLS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHED FROM NEAR TRINIDAD...NORTHEAST
TO LAMAR.
THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE BURN SCAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN RATES WILL BE
LIGHT AND DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE A FLOODING RISK AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
...WARM SPRING STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FILL AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND SRN CO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE VORT MAX ACROSS CEN NM AS IT
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CO AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS STALL THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH
MARGINAL DEW POINTS (STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) CAPES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG. SO MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL PROVIDE THE GREATER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...AIDED BY NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER THE LAGGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS REALLY HURT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...AND WE ARE MOSTLY SEEING ONLY SOME WEAK SHOWERS.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE BURN SCARS...AS LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND REALLY DECREASE RAINFALL
EFFICIENCIES. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING.
AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING AOA 10KFT...WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE BURN SCARS CLOSELY.
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE A
GOOD SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS
WELL...WITH FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL WAVER AROUND 10000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BOTH GFS
AND NAM SPREAD DEFORMATION BAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS. NAM12 REALLY
HITS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE HARD WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 10000 FEET.
TO SOME DEGREE...THIS IS LIKELY CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED AS NAM
KEEPS HITTING THE SOUTHERN SANGRES WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 09Z. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LIGHTER
WITH QPF. STILL IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THE HIGHER AREAS
COULD PICK UP AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOWFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS COVERAGE OF THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LIMITED IN THE GRIDS...EVEN ACROSS JUST THE
HIGHER ZONES ABOVE 11KFT.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...BOTH GFS AND NAM12 HAVE A DEFORMATION BAND/
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WHICH GENERATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW
POINTS STILL LOOK ON THE LOW SIDE...LIMITING INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH...AROUND/ABOVE 10KFT...SO LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN...AND IF A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS REALIZED...THE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS COULD BE A
LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY. BUT CAPES LOOK LIMITED...WHICH KEEPS THE
THREAT FOR PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL RATES ON THE BURN SCARS ON THE LOW
SIZE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDED ELEVATED POPS AT
TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING...GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 00Z
MONDAY WILL SHIFT INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...NEXT
NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
THEN...OVERALL DRIER PATTERN IN CONTINUATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A ZONAL TO UPPER RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF EXPERIENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY MAY ALSO
NOTE AT LEAST LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
FINALLY...AS TOUCHED UPON PREVIOUSLY...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH THE WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
POSE LITTLE THREAT OR IMPACT TO ALL THREE TERMINAL SITES. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. INCREASED MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY. ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES
DURING THE EVENING. ANY TERMINAL THAT HAS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MOVE OVER HEAD WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VIS.
MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1149 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOCKED IN ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS PULLING THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DOWN THE COAST LINE. RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AT 9AM WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 60S WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 10 TO 15 MPH JUST INLAND
AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WELL INLAND.
AFTER LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP WITH LOW LEVEL RUC WINDS
PLACED OVER TOP CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES OR SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
OPTION. THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST LOOK TO STAY AROUND ALL DAY AS
BOTH THE RUC AND 06Z GFS ARE SHOWING VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR
MASS IN THE 925-850MB...ROUGHLY 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE...HOLDING FAST
THROUGH SUNSET IF NOT LONGER PER THE GFS MODEL RUN.
CURRENT HIGHS OF UPPER 70S INTERIOR MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH BUT
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE CAN PUSH
TEMPERATURES UPWARD QUICKLY THEN DROP BACK AS SKIES CLOUD OVER.
ALONG THE COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY. NORTHERLY WIND OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 68...68 AT DAYTONA BEACH...AND LOW
70S...72 AT COCOA BEACH...WILL KEEP THE OCEANFRONT AND AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON FROM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S LOOK TO BE A BETTER CALL.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ASCD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRES
CENTER OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT LINE CAN BE SEEN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF KBKV-KSFB-KTTS DELINEATING NRLY FLOW FROM NW/W WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE L60S AREAWIDE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TODAY AND WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THIS MIGHT HAVE ON TEMPS. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF BREAKS NEAR THE COAST...FORECAST SHOWS ONLY
A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
STAYS CYCLONIC WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUNG OUT OVER THE STATE.
FLOW DOES FLATTENS OUT A LITTLE AFTER 00Z...WHILE SFC-H85 FLOW LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST...SO THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...PERHAPS MORESO THAN SHOWN BY THE
LATEST SKY COVER GRIDS.
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY...OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER - MAINLY U70S...WITH M70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY IN COASTAL
VOLUSIA. MINS IN THE U50S TO L60S WEST OF I-95...BUT WITH WINDS
VEERING A TAD TO N TO NNE OVERNIGHT...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM
BREVARD SWD MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE TO EVEN U60S ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL SHOW THIS TEMP SPREAD IN THE ZFP.
MON-TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AND
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY GET SQUEEZED OUT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST U.S. COAST BY LATE ON TUE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIE ALONG THE GULF COAST/FL-GA BORDER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH POPS 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. GRADUAL BUMP UPWARDS IN HIGHS/LOWS EACH DAY AS THE AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODERATES.
WED-SAT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP CURRENT
GRIDDED POPS IN THE 10-14 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY GET ADDED DOWN THE LINE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN MEAGER WITH QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH TO SOUTH ALL DAY.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
LOOKING AT A COMPARISON OF THE 3.9UM SHORT WAVE AND (11-3.9)UM
LOW CLOUD IR CHANNELS COUPLED WITH SURFACE METARS LOW BASED SC
AROUND BKN025-035 APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD TYPE
SOUTH OF A KTPA-KLAL-KGIF-KMLB LINE...WITH MAINLY ST/STFRA ~OVC-
BKN006-015 TO THE NORTH. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO VFR BKN025-035
MUCH OF TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 009 WAS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AND 6 FOOT SEAS. THE BUOYS 4
AND 6 MILES OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS HAVE NOT FULLY IMPACTED THE SEA SURFACE AS THEY ARE
SLOWLY INCREASING AND SHIFTED FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PATTERN OF NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS PLUS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS STILL A
GOOD CALL. THE EXPANDING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 10 AM TO
COVER ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET STILL A GOOD CALL.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS ON TAP AS PGRAD TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SERN CONUS SFC LOW AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. STRONGER N-NNW WINDS LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO NORTH
AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM SAUF1 (N@25P27KT) AND 41010KT (NW@17P22KT).
THE SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD 20-60NM LEGS AT
4AM...AND EXTEND TO ALL BUT THE SEB-JUP 0-20 LEG BY 10AM. A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE INTERIM WHERE IT
DOESN`T START AT 4.
SUN-WED...WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
OVER THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY FAVORABLE
LATER ON TUE PAST MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 60 74 57 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 78 60 79 59 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 75 64 77 60 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 75 66 77 59 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 78 59 80 59 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 78 61 79 58 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 78 62 80 60 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 78 66 78 60 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1135 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
With stratus refusing to lift...updated 1st period GRIDS to
increase sky cover and tweak dwon expected Max temps..to low 70s
west to upper 60s east.
The large scale regional pattern this morning shows mid/upper ridge
over Wrn MS and slow moving low parked just off Carolina Coast. At
the surface...low has slightly decoupled from upper system and was
located off SE GA Coast. In response...High continues to wedge down
Ern seaboard. Wrap around moisture from surface low continues to
move WSW and across local area keeping a low stratus blanket with
some drizzle Ern third of CWA. This reflected in RAP soundings and
12z RAOBS which show ample moisture at lowest levels then
increasingly dry air and with PWATs hovering around 0.9 inches...
NNE flow at lowest levels backing to NLY H85-H6 then NW above H6.
During the rest of today...upstream ridge will continue to build Ewd
with rising heights..NVA and increasing subsidence especially Wrn CFWA.
This will shunt low further to the NE. Surface low moves further
Newd with Ern ridge wedging down into the Nrn CWA. This could
tighten local gradient and provide some gusty winds. As a result...
low level flow backs to NE and PWATS remain near 1 inch implying
that low clouds will be slow to erode..especially NE third of CWA.
Further west..expect some morning breaks in the overcast followed by
partly cloudy aftn skies as upper/lower ridge impact increasingly
felt. All this could impact max temps. Highs will be warmer than
yesterday...from the low 70s SW to upper 60s across cloudier NE.
&&
.Prev Discussion [918 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of
change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday,
followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with
temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front
from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will
be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger,
wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with
modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in).
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to
weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo
values on Tuesday.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...IFR then borderline MVFR cigs will
continue to prevail this morning. Thereafter, the low level
cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE
through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low
pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further
away. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist past midnight. Neither fog
nor low clouds are expected.
.Marine...
Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to
the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered
closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an
approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather
light.
.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
.Hydrology...
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points
along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood
stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not
forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 70 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 70 56 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 71 52 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 40
Albany 69 50 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 30
Valdosta 69 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Cross City 72 52 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 68 56 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOCKED IN ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS PULLING THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DOWN THE COAST LINE. RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AT 9AM WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 60S WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 10 TO 15 MPH JUST INLAND
AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WELL INLAND.
AFTER LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP WITH LOW LEVEL RUC WINDS
PLACED OVER TOP CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES OR SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
OPTION. THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST LOOK TO STAY AROUND ALL DAY AS
BOTH THE RUC AND 06Z GFS ARE SHOWING VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR
MASS IN THE 925-850MB...ROUGHLY 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE...HOLDING FAST
THROUGH SUNSET IF NOT LONGER PER THE GFS MODEL RUN.
CURRENT HIGHS OF UPPER 70S INTERIOR MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH BUT
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE CAN PUSH
TEMPERATURES UPWARD QUICKLY THEN DROP BACK AS SKIES CLOUD OVER.
ALONG THE COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY. NORTHERLY WIND OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 68...68 AT DAYTONA BEACH...AND LOW
70S...72 AT COCOA BEACH...WILL KEEP THE OCEANFRONT AND AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON FROM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S LOOK TO BE A BETTER CALL.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ASCD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRES
CENTER OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT LINE CAN BE SEEN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF KBKV-KSFB-KTTS DELINEATING NRLY FLOW FROM NW/W WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE L60S AREAWIDE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TODAY AND WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THIS MIGHT HAVE ON TEMPS. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF BREAKS NEAR THE COAST...FORECAST SHOWS ONLY
A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
STAYS CYCLONIC WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUNG OUT OVER THE STATE.
FLOW DOES FLATTENS OUT A LITTLE AFTER 00Z...WHILE SFC-H85 FLOW LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST...SO THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...PERHAPS MORESO THAN SHOWN BY THE
LATEST SKY COVER GRIDS.
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY...OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER - MAINLY U70S...WITH M70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY IN COASTAL
VOLUSIA. MINS IN THE U50S TO L60S WEST OF I-95...BUT WITH WINDS
VEERING A TAD TO N TO NNE OVERNIGHT...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM
BREVARD SWD MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE TO EVEN U60S ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL SHOW THIS TEMP SPREAD IN THE ZFP.
MON-TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AND
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY GET SQUEEZED OUT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST U.S. COAST BY LATE ON TUE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIE ALONG THE GULF COAST/FL-GA BORDER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH POPS 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. GRADUAL BUMP UPWARDS IN HIGHS/LOWS EACH DAY AS THE AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODERATES.
WED-SAT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP CURRENT
GRIDDED POPS IN THE 10-14 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY GET ADDED DOWN THE LINE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN MEAGER WITH QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH TO SOUTH ALL DAY.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
LOOKING AT A COMPARISON OF THE 3.9UM SHORT WAVE AND (11-3.9)UM
LOW CLOUD IR CHANNELS COUPLED WITH SURFACE METARS LOW BASED SC
AROUND BKN025-035 APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD TYPE
SOUTH OF A KTPA-KLAL-KGIF-KMLB LINE...WITH MAINLY ST/STFRA ~OVC-
BKN006-015 TO THE NORTH. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO VFR BKN025-035
MUCH OF TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 009 WAS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AND 6 FOOT SEAS. THE BUOYS 4
AND 6 MILES OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS HAVE NOT FULLY IMPACTED THE SEA SURFACE AS THEY ARE
SLOWLY INCREASING AND SHIFTED FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PATTERN OF NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS PLUS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS STILL A
GOOD CALL. THE EXPANDING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 10 AM TO
COVER ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET STILL A GOOD CALL.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS ON TAP AS PGRAD TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SERN CONUS SFC LOW AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. STRONGER N-NNW WINDS LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO NORTH
AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM SAUF1 (N@25P27KT) AND 41010KT (NW@17P22KT).
THE SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD 20-60NM LEGS AT
4AM...AND EXTEND TO ALL BUT THE SEB-JUP 0-20 LEG BY 10AM. A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE INTERIM WHERE IT
DOESN`T START AT 4.
SUN-WED...WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
OVER THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY FAVORABLE
LATER ON TUE PAST MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 60 74 57 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 78 60 79 59 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 75 64 77 60 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 75 66 77 59 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 78 59 80 59 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 78 61 79 58 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 78 62 80 60 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 78 66 78 60 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
956 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER UPDATES WILL BE THE "WRAP-AROUND"
CLOUDS FORECAST TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 500MB TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT IS
MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP
WITH ITS BASE AT 4K SO THESE CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION. THE HRRR WHICH IS A HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL
IS HANDLING THE SITUATION BETTER AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS LIFTING OUT
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE
TREND IS INDICATING TO0 RAPID OF A DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD
FIELD. ALSO, THIS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT LIFT OUT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/
AVIATION...
CIGS RANGING FROM 3-4 KFT THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND
BREAK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS HEATING AND MIXING
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT FROM THE NW THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF LOW STRATUS AND STRATOCU
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS HOLDING TEMPS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST
OF THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TODAY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ERODING
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND NORMAL GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. FOR EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH RATHER UNEVENTFUL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST. IN FACT, NO APPRECIATIVE SIGNAL/INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE WISE, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT
MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED
CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE BUT COULD JUST DROP INTO THE
HIGH END OF THE MVFR RANGE PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE TONIGHT MAINLY OFF
THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IN ITSELF WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH
A SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE
PALM BEACH WATERS AND 2 FEET OFF THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
WATERS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFF THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE BROWARD WATERS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, SCEC FOR TONIGHT
AND SCA FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FOR THOSE WATERS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SWELL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST TIL LATE TUESDAY OR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK EVEN AFTER PEAKING
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY PART OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT THE VERY LEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 68 81 67 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 82 69 / 0 10 10 10
MIAMI 80 68 83 69 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 82 65 83 65 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
918 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The large scale regional pattern this morning shows mid/upper ridge
over Wrn MS and slow moving low parked just off Carolina Coast. At
the surface...low has slightly decoupled from upper system and was
located off SE GA Coast. In response...High continues to wedge down
Ern seaboard. Wrap around moisture from surface low continues to
move WSW and across local area keeping a low stratus blanket with
some drizzle Ern third of CWA. This reflected in RAP soundings and
12z RAOBS which show ample moisture at lowest levels then
increasingly dry air and with PWATs hovering around 0.9 inches...
NNE flow at lowest levels backing to NLY H85-H6 then NW above H6.
During the rest of today...upstream ridge will continue to build Ewd
with rising heights..NVA and increasing subsidence especially Wrn CFWA.
This will shunt low further to the NE. Surface low moves further
Newd with Ern ridge wedging down into the Nrn CWA. This could
tighten local gradient and provide some gusty winds. As a result...
low level flow backs to NE and PWATS remain near 1 inch implying
that low clouds will be slow to erode..especially NE third of CWA.
Further west..expect some morning breaks in the overcast followed by
partly cloudy aftn skies as upper/lower ridge impact increasingly
felt. All this could impact max temps. Highs will be warmer than
yesterday...from the low 70s SW to upper 60s across cloudier NE.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...IFR then borderline MVFR cigs will
continue to prevail this morning. Thereafter, the low level
cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE
through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low
pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further
away. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist past midnight. Neither fog
nor low clouds are expected.
&&
.Prev Discussion [305 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of
change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday,
followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with
temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front
from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will
be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger,
wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with
modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in).
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to
weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo
values on Tuesday.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.
.Marine...
Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to
the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered
closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an
approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather
light.
.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
.Hydrology...
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points
along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood
stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not
forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 72 56 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 73 52 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 40
Albany 71 50 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 30
Valdosta 71 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Cross City 75 52 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 70 56 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENT MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ASSOCIATED CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.
AG
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.
BNB
MARINE...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 82 67 83 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 82 70 84 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 68 82 69 84 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 65 82 66 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1158 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH MIDLANDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAISED THE TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. ALSO REMOVED POPS AS MOISTURE FLUX
IS SHIFTING TO COAST. LATEST RAP AND LAMP SUGGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY COOL START AND
CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATO- CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS...DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
BY THIS EVENING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH MIDLANDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAISED THE TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. ALSO REMOVED POPS AS MOISTURE FLUX
IS SHIFTING TO COAST. LATEST RAP AND LAMP SUGGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY COOL START AND
CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AFFECTING MAINLY AGS BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THEN BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
925 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL HELP CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EARLY...
MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE RAIN CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
SUPPORT CONTINUED HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY. BELIEVE THE EAST PART WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. BREAKS MAY OCCUR
IN THE WEST PART CLOSER TO THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. WE USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
A FEW GUSTS NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT LATEST RAP AND
LAMP SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY COOL START AND
CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AFFECTING MAINLY AGS BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THEN BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Ample insolation early this afternoon resulted in surface-based CAPE
in the 700-1100 J/kg west of Highway 283 to the Colorado border.
Lack of a capping inversion beneath cool temperatures in the
700-500mb layer (+2C at 700mb). There were two areas of surface
convergence that will support development of thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon. The first area is near the Colorado border along the
stationary trough axis, which is also near where the mid level
vorticity center is. We are also watching a secondary area of
interest from Dodge City south to the Oklahoma border where surface
wind convergence was slightly enhanced. 1km visible satellite
confirmed development of cumulus in both of these areas. Given the
higher degree of instability than earlier anticipated, a few hail
storms may occur with the largest hail most likely being around
1-inch in diameter (Quarter size). Severe weather threat will likely
wane after 00Z or so as showers and thunderstorms grow upscale. This
is what the HRRR would seem to suggest in its latest runs, which
makes sense given the marginal instability. Much of the
precipitation should be coming to an end/or exiting the southwest
Kansas region in the 04-07Z time frame so POPs will be lowered
during this time frame and shortly thereafter.
A northern stream shortwave trough will aid in bringing a cold front
south through western Nebraska late tonight, reaching southwestern
Kansas by mid to late morning Monday. The front is not expected to
have any impact on temperatures, though, so the going forecast of
upper 70s to near 80 still looks pretty good (especially along/south
of the Arkansas River).
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Upper level ridging builds over the Plains Monday night through
Tuesday with dry conditions in the mid levels. This will allow
mostly clear skies to be observed across western Kansas. This will
be short lived as the next storm system moves into the Northern
Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly winds will be felt
across western Kansas as this system approaches with increasing mid
level moisture Tuesday night. A moderate upper level jet will be
found above western Kansas on Wednesday enhancing lift across the
area. Southerly winds will continue at the surface becoming windy in
the afternoon. In addition, a dryline is suggested to develop in the
afternoon with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses.
These conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of the
dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of these
storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main concern. A cold front then moves through
western Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Lows
Tuesday morning will be in the low to mid 40s with highs Tuesday
reaching into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The warmest day of the
week looks to be on Wednesday with lows in the mid 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. Lows Thursday morning look to range from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas where the aforementioned cold front is
expected to move through early to upper 50s across south central
Kansas where the front is not expected to move through by sunrise.
Dry conditions are then expected during the remainder of the week as
an upper level ridge builds above the Plains with dry conditions in
the mid levels. Winds shift back to the south by Saturday as the
next storm system entered the western United States. This system is
expected to affect western Kansas this weekend bringing an increase
in clouds and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs Thursday through this
weekend will generally be in the 70s with lower 80s possible across
far southwestern Kansas on Saturday. Lows will generally be in the
mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
11-3.9 micron satellite and METAR imagery combination was showing
VFR altostratus across the area. Southerly winds will increase
eventually be taken over by north winds late in the day as the
surface low develops and shifts eastward. Isentropic lift will aid
in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms by late day,
mainly in the IFR/MVFR category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 77 45 79 / 50 10 0 10
GCK 51 76 43 82 / 50 0 0 10
EHA 49 76 46 83 / 20 10 0 10
LBL 51 78 46 83 / 50 0 0 10
HYS 56 77 43 79 / 60 10 0 10
P28 56 77 47 79 / 50 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014
...Updated Short Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Ample insolation early this afternoon resulted in surface-based CAPE
in the 700-1100 J/kg west of Highway 283 to the Colorado border.
Lack of a capping inversion beneath cool temperatures in the
700-500mb layer (+2C at 700mb). There were two areas of surface
convergence that will support development of thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon. The first area is near the Colorado border along the
stationary trough axis, which is also near where the mid level
vorticity center is. We are also watching a secondary area of
interest from Dodge City south to the Oklahoma border where surface
wind convergence was slightly enhanced. 1km visible satellite
confirmed development of cumulus in both of these areas. Given the
higher degree of instability than earlier anticipated, a few hail
storms may occur with the largest hail most likely being around
1-inch in diameter (Quarter size). Severe weather threat will likely
wane after 00Z or so as showers and thunderstorms grow upscale. This
is what the HRRR would seem to suggest in its latest runs, which
makes sense given the marginal instability. Much of the
precipitation should be coming to an end/or exiting the southwest
Kansas region in the 04-07Z time frame so POPs will be lowered
during this time frame and shortly thereafter.
A northern stream shortwave trough will aid in bringing a cold front
south through western Nebraska late tonight, reaching southwestern
Kansas by mid to late morning Monday. The front is not expected to
have any impact on temperatures, though, so the going forecast of
upper 70s to near 80 still looks pretty good (especially along/south
of the Arkansas River).
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Models show the shortwave trough exiting the area on Monday, as
surface high pressure settles southward from the North Plains under
the advancing mid level ridge. This pattern will result breezy
northeast surface winds eventually veering southeast by Monday
night. The relative weak cold advection pattern should at least
limit the diurnal warming in the afternoon. Much warmer than normal
conditions are expected however by Tuesday and especially on
Wednesday as a dryline moves into the area with strong vertical
mixing potential. The upper wave pattern across the region suggest
very windy conditions on Wednesday well into the wind advisory
criteria range for the entire area, from southwest winds and first
and then with a cold front crashing through western Kansas as the
dynamic low moves through the Northern Plains. Additionally the
dryline should be the focus for deep moist convection development
in the late afternoon, with rapidly moving thunderstorms. Large
scale lift could prolong convective activity in the central Kansas
or even on a retreating dryline later into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The remainder of the week will probably bring flat
upper ridging across the high plains while another wave moves
onshore of the west coast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
11-3.9 micron satellite and METAR imagery combination was showing
VFR altostratus across the area. Southerly winds will increase
eventually be taken over by north winds late in the day as the
surface low develops and shifts eastward. Isentropic lift will aid
in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms by late day,
mainly in the IFR/MVFR category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 77 45 79 / 50 10 0 10
GCK 51 76 43 82 / 50 0 0 10
EHA 49 76 46 83 / 20 10 0 10
LBL 51 78 46 83 / 50 0 0 10
HYS 56 77 43 79 / 60 10 0 10
P28 56 77 47 79 / 50 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
VFR EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN VCSH FOR THE PRECIPITATION AT
EITHER LOCATION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 15Z. THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING IN THE
EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
603 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
07Z water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave still over
southwest NM with bits of vorticity lifting out across the TX and OK
panhandles into western KS. Surface obs show an inverted trough of
low pressure extending from southeastern CO into eastern NEB. Low
level moisture return has been less than impressive and even now
with a good low level jet higher dewpoints seem to be stuck along
the TX gulf coast. Models PROG the upper shortwave to move out
across OK and KS today and tonight. This wave should bring some
cooler mid level temps and steepening lapse rates that is expected
to remove any inhibition to convection. However models show the
magnitude of the large scale forcing to be weak. Additionally the
main surface feature for focusing low level convergence remains
mainly to the northwest of the forecast area today. So with
instability driven mainly by day time heating, think convection will
be scattered in nature and may be more hit or miss due to the
relative lack of a dominate feature to focus convection. CAPE values
are expected to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/km range but deep layer
shear continues to be unimpressive. This suggests chances for severe
weather remains low. With some insolation and southerly low level
winds persisting through the day, highs are forecast to warm into
the mid and upper 70s.
The main question for tonight is whether convection falls apart with
the loss of day time heating or if the mid level deformation and
weak forcing of the upper wave will allow precip to fester
overnight. Think the lessening of instability overnight may cause
coverage to lessen, so have shown POPs to trend lower overnight but
will keep a chance for precip as the GFS and ECMWF continue to
generate some light QPF. Lows tonight should remain mild since the
boundary doesn`t make much of a push until Monday morning. The
forecast shows low generally in the upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
By 12Z Monday morning, consensus guidance progs the cold front to be
entering far north central Kansas. Due to forcing along the boundary
combined with maximum lift from the upper trough axis, have
maintained chances for thunderstorms, highest being across
east central and far northeast areas through mid afternoon. Elevated
instability increases during this time while shear profiles remain
weak below 20 kts therefore severe storms are not expected. Main
concerns on Monday will be the heavy rain potential as deep moisture
raises PWAT values peak between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. Dry air works
its way southeast behind the front by late afternoon with precip
chances ending early Monday evening. Upper ridge on Tuesday will
spell quiet and warm conditions across the area with highs
remaining in the low 70s.
A negatively tilted trough deepens and lifts northeast over the
Inter-mountain west late Tuesday evening, ejecting a leading
shortwave trough into the northern and central plains. An aiding low
level jet will develop showers and thunderstorms over north central
Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent in timing with the
GFS being a tad slower. The 00Z NAM carries less moisture
availability and so will maintain chance pops from previous
forecast.
A warm and moist air mass builds in the central plains Wednesday
afternoon with the dry line and cold front set up across western
Kansas and Nebraska. As the upper trough lifts northeast, showers
and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the aforementioned
boundaries late Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance has been
consistent with this activity developing west of the CWA and
progressing eastward with the cold front Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Precip chances were increased to likely for Wednesday
evening. While the capping inversion holds through the day at CNK,
elevated severe storms would be possible (especially over north
central Kansas) with instability near 1000 J/KG and effective shear
(0-6km) in excess of 50 kts. The ECMWF is the slightly faster
solution than the GFS, however both clear precip out of the area
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor this system as changes
are likely in the depth of instability and timing. Highs during
this time peak in the upper 70s Wednesday and lower 70s Thursday.
Next system looks to impact the area Saturday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the day. ECMWF/GFS are trending a
cool Canadian airmass further south behind a cold front with highs
Saturday in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Confidence in timing precip at the terminals is low since there is
no good feature to focus convection. Most of the guidance is
pointing to daytime heating destabilizing the atmosphere and weak
forcing from the upper wave sparking convection by the late
afternoon. Think convection is likely to be of a scattered nature.
Because of this will keep the forecast VFR with only a VCTS at
this time. If a thunderstorm moves into the terminal, temporary IFR
VSBY is likely.
The potential for low level wind shear will persist until about
14Z when the RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing
out.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MCK VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. BY 16Z SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MCK VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. BY 16Z SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
558 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
Radar has been showing light showers and sprinkles across parts of
the area all day, with the greatest concentration over southeast
Missouri and southwest IN. It it fairly dry in the lowest levels in
some places across the east, and sprinkles were noted in those
areas. Cold front is still poised well off to our west and will
continue making eastward progress later today and tonight. Short
term models have not done well with the ongoing precipitation. The
HRRR did pretty well early on but now the RAP models seems to be
doing ok. As the front approaches and until its departure, we will
continue to have scattered convection. The problem will be where and
when to place the best POPS as lift with this system is not too
strong. Will maintain at least scattered to likely wording for now.
With all the cloud cover, instability has been hard to come by, but
new thunderstorms are forming over northern Arkansas this afternoon,
which have some hope of moving into parts of the area.
Showers should quickly taper off from northwest to southeast between
05z and 10z Tuesday, with just a few showers possibly lingering in
our far southeast counties early Tuesday morning.
High pressure will build over the upper Mississippi valley Tuesday,
sliding slowly east over the Great Lakes region by Wednesday.
Winds out of the north on Tuesday will gradually shift to the east
by Wednesday, which will help give us cooler, near seasonal
conditions, as 900 mb temps drop back down into the single digits.
The region should see quite a bit of sunshine by Tuesday afternoon
and again on Wednesday with dry air in place over the area. Clouds
will increase late Wednesday night with increasing moisture ahead of
our next weather system.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
The 12Z models are in fairly good agreement in bringing the
southern end of a mid/upper level trough eastward through the
area, with a cold front, Thursday afternoon and evening. The upper
system is negatively tilted, so there should be enough forcing to
overcome very meager instability and create a band of showers and
thunderstorms near the front. Wind fields will be pretty good, but
instability is lacking, so would not expect much of a severe
threat. A stray strong storm cannot be ruled out, though. given
the speed of the system, would not expect much of a heavy rain
threat either.
The cold front Thursday is quite weak, so temperatures will still
be well into the 70s for highs on Friday with plenty of sunshine.
However, all bets are off beginning Friday night, as the models
diverge significantly in the details for our region. The GFS is
the most amplified in developing a Omega blocking pattern centered
on our region. It is particularly strong with its eastern trough,
and pushes a significant cold front through the area Friday night
and Saturday morning. This should be a dry frontal passage.
The GFS ends up with a very skinny ridge running northward right
through our region. This would keep the eastern half of the area
under the influence of the cool surface high and precipitation
free over the weekend. The question would be how much convective
activity would slip southeast over our western areas from Saturday
night on through Monday.
The ECMWF is quite a bit less amplified with the east coast
trough, and has varied considerably with the southward push of the
cold front. The 12Z version stalls the east-west oriented front
right through our region, and has a rather wet forecast from
Saturday night through at least Monday.
The GFS looks too amplified, but the ECMWF has not been very
consistent in its frontal/precipitation details. Will have small
pops mainly in the west Saturday night and Sunday, and then just
broad brush 30 to 40 PoPs for Sunday night through Monday night.
Temperatures will be tricky given the different synoptic
possibilities, but in general, they should be at or above normal
through Sunday and then fall below normal for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 554 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
Incoming front will produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, though the latter may wane with the setting sun. By
midnight or shortly thereafter, fropa will have occurred at all
terminals, eliminating the threat of MVFR conditions. Skies should
clear tmrw morning as winds shift to nlys and stiffen with gusts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.
ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.P. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID TREND SOME OF THE
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PWATS OF 40-45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WOULD SUPPORT GOING AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE.
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WILL COME ONSHORE TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-305K
SURFACES WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL STEADILY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEARS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS POINT DUE TO
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS WITH THE THERMAL FIELD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
AREA...IT ENCOUNTERS A ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
700MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS LAYER
REMAINS STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. AS FOR THE MODELS...THE
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE COOLEST AND THE 12Z GEM IS
IN BETWEEN INITIALLY. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC IN THESE SITUATIONS AS JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN 925-700MB OF 1-2C ONE WAY OR ANOTHER CAN MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THUS...WILL
FOLLOW AN IDEA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP AND
LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (OVER
THE SOUTH HALF). THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL PLACE IT OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO FRIDAY. BY
THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW...THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA AND EXPECT
MORE OF A SCATTERED/LIGHT PRECIP TO REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND AROUND 0.5-1.0IN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THAT MATCHES
UP WELL WITH SOME OF THE ECMWF/GFS QPF PROBS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW POTENTIAL IS TRICKY BUT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TREND SEEN IN THE 12Z MODELS CREATES CONCERN FOR MEASURABLE (AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO ITS
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH. FINALLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM...THE COLD AIR AND BREEZING CONDITIONS SURGING IN BEHIND THE
LOW ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE AS A HUDSON BAY HIGH BECOMES
STATIONARY AND LEADS TO DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AT THIS TIME MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE FIRST AT KCMX AND KSAW
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND THEN OVERNIGHT AT KIWD. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTN AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WAS SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE HAS LIKELY LED TO
ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW REMAINING.
STARTED TO SEE THE SECOND WAVE OF SNOW MELT RISES ON THE AREA
RIVERS YESTERDAY AND WILL CONTINUES TO SEE THAT INTO TONIGHT. BUT
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY SHOULD REALLY
SLOW THE MELT AND IN TURN LIMIT ADDITIONAL RISES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT
THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL
AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE
THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER (WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN FROM AN ICE JAM).
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
105 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS DRY AIR HAS SURGED OVER THE THREE TAF SITES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS
IF/WHEN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF THE TIMING ON THE FOG AND INTENSITY. KIWD MAY END UP BEING
THE HIGHEST WITH VERY LIGHT AND UNFAVORABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY LIMITING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INFLUENCING KCMX AND HAVE NOT WENT AS LOW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MOS. AS FOR KSAW...THINK THEY HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO FALL
TO LIFR BASED OFF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPOING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASE AND SOME MID
CLOUDS TO APPROACH TOWARDS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING PATCHY FOG/MVFR VSBY AT SAW EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MRNG AS DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES
THE FOG. OTRW...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVNG AS A WEAK HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR WORK INTO UPR
MI. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY MID LVL AIR OVER MELTING SN UNDER THE
LINGERING SFC RDG ALLOWING FOR SGNFT RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG
TO DVLP AT ALL 3 SITES. THE BEST CHC FOR IFR VSBYS WL BE AT CMX AND
SAW WITH A MORE FVRBL LIGHT ESE LLVL WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE NORTHERN WAVE SLIDING FROM ALBERTA AT 00Z
MONDAY INTO EASTERN MANITOBA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE REST. DIFFERENCES IN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH EXIST
BY THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF POSITIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
WEST...AND THE GFS/GEM/NAM NEUTRALLY/NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
EAST. THE GEM HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.
THE SOUTHERN WAVE ALOFT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AT 00Z MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF SPORT A POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA. THE GEM/NAM HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH...DEVELOPING
ONLY THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT IN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS
COME INTO SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE TWO WAVES MERGE INTO A DISJOINTED TROUGH BY 18Z
TUESDAY...MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOGETHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAYS
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE S/SE CWA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI MONDAY OR BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING NORTHERN WAVE...ALLOWING THE A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW
TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH OVER LOWER MI AND PUSH IT INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN WAVE DROPPING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL CWA BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. OVERALL...DECIDED
TO BLEND WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE EASTERN
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MON EVE-TUESDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER UPPER MI
RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C. THIS PUTS HIGHS INLAND AND WEST INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. AREAS EASTWARD WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER...SO PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SOME DAYS. WITH THE
RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER
RIVER FLOWS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.
MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN. AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE MORE POTENT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GEM/GFS...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA BY
18Z THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO DEEPER THAN THE GFS/GEM. THE GEM/GFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS POPS AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...LEADING
TO ANOTHER COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER. LATEST
DLH OBS HAS A 27 KNOT WIND GUST. THE DLH 88D VWP STILL SHOWING
30KTS AT 2K FT...BUT ATMOS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...AND
DECREASE THE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR CLOUDS. COOLER AIR MASS WILL GIVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE
NORTHLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..AS A MAIN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN SWING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF THERMAL PROFILES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE NORTH AND MAINLY SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO COME UP WITH A SNOWFALL FORECAST
BUT COULD BE A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...
AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE IF THINGS ARE A BIT COOLER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND AS A
POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK FORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CEILINGS FROM 2500-4500 FEET OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...LASTING LONGEST AT KHIB. THESE CEILINGS ARE
NOT ENTIRELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WE MAY SEE BASES DIMINISH
TOWARD MVFR IN SPOTS AS WELL. THE RAP KEEPS CEILINGS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE EVENTUALLY DO BRING
SCATTERED CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 53 32 47 / 0 0 0 70
INL 31 54 32 54 / 10 0 0 40
BRD 33 58 38 53 / 0 0 10 70
HYR 32 54 31 55 / 0 0 0 60
ASX 32 50 29 51 / 0 0 0 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD
SEE A GENERAL CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
OFF TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS
DROP FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND
WINDS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
TWO CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST IS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW MN THROUGH NE WI
WHILE THE SECOND IS DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. VARIOUS 12Z WRF SOLUTIONS WOULD POINT TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE IA/MN
BORDER ON EASTWARD INTO WI. THIS WOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF KEAU WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS INDICATED BETWEEN KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU. LATEST
WRF TRENDS HAVE ALSO BACKED AWAY FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE OF A RISK OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR KEAU WHERE A 1/4SM FG IS NOW IN PLACE FROM 09Z-13Z.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY MORNING FROM KAXN TO
KRWF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL APPROACH 20 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. INCREASING NW WINDS FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND SE OF THE AIRFIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE IN THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NGT...VFR. NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. NW WIND LESS THAN 10KTS BECOMING VRBL LESS THAN 5KTS.
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SE WIND 10-20 KTS BECOMING SW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
619 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS DROP
FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND WINDS IN
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRIMARY ISSUES ARE AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY OCCURRING... CHANCES FOR
SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER
TONIGHT. SHRA FROM OVERNIGHT HAS FINALLY SAGGED SOUTH OF MOST OF
THE AREA... ALTHOUGH KEAU COULD STILL SEE SOME FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE DAY... BUT AN UPPER WAVE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD WORK TO BRING SOME SHRA BACK NORTH AGAIN. AT THIS POINT DID
NOT INCLUDE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN... BUT TRIED TO REFLECT
SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE FOG WHICH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND SOME LOCALIZED IFR AND LIFR. LUCKILY SUNRISE WILL BE
OCCURRING... SO WE SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MANY FOG CONCERNS BEYOND
13... EXCEPT NEAR KRNH WHERE THE LOSS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY ALLOWED THINGS TO
BECOME VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z... WHICH SHOULD WORK OUT OK.
KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE FOG DURING THE FIRST HOUR
OR TWO OF THE TAF... WHICH COULD BRIEFLY GET DOWN TO AOB 1SM.
HOWEVER... GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING AND THE FACT
THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF... DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT LOW IN THE
FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH PCPN RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. TRIED TO CAPTURE A COUPLE OF
POTENTIAL TIME FRAMES WHEN SHRA LOOK MOST LIKELY NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE THIS EVENING AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE THE TIMING VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST...
SO THAT WILL LIKELY BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS DROP
FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND WINDS IN
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT PCPN ON
NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST... WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHRA GOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KMSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN DROP IT
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF ALL BUT PERHAPS KEAU BY MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHRA... BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DIP
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SCATTERED SHRA WE/RE SEEING FOG DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER... PARTICULARLY WHERE SNOW MELTED YESTERDAY. COULD
DEFINITELY SEE SOME ISSUES WITH IFR AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR AT KSTC
AND KRNH THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE NEXT
ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REJUVENATING THE
SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STILL
BE LOITERING IN THE VICINITY. IT APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z... SO AT THIS POINT THE ONLY TAF WHERE ANY MENTION IS
NEEDED SHOULD BE KMSP... SO INCLUDED A VCSH THERE AFTER 07Z.
KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH WHEN WE/LL SEE THE CURRENT
SHRA ACTIVITY FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING... BUT IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
1-2 HOURS SLOWER. IN ADDITION... INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEPARTS AND WE POTENTIALLY SEE
A BIT OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT POSSIBILITY
IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW... AND IT COULD EASILY NOT OCCUR OR BE A BIT
WORSE SHOULD CLOUDS DEPART MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS OFF THE 19.12 GFS IDENTIFIED 5 WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THREE OF THESE WAVES WERE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ONE IN THE
CENTER WAS OVER MANITOBA...WHILE THE OTHER TWO WERE EQUIDISTANT
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE WITH THE REMAINING TWO WAVES WERE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRADDLING EITHER COAST...WITH ONE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA...AND THE OTHER OVER FLORIDA.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
OVER MANITOBA REVEALED A 1004MB SURFACE LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPS WAS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS
INSTABILITY HAD DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AS OF 19Z. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED
POPS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND CAUSE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM ALONG THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MIDWEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM OMAHA...THROUGH LA
CROSSE WI...TO GREEN BAY WI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE THUNDER AS WELL...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2 OF PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI. MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MORE THAN AN
INCH OF QPF LIKELY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A
GROWING CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND EC WOULD
SUGGEST HAVING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA. WE NOTICED TODAY THAT THE EC WAS A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HELD LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO EAU
CLAIRE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO LADYSMITH.
THE SHOWERS END EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED AT THIS
TIME ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GEM AND GFS WOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE LOW ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
EC WOULD HAVE THE LOW REACHING SOUTHERN MN. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 500 MB REACH OR EXCEED 50 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON ALL THREE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THURSDAY
HAPPENS TO BE OUR SEVERE WEATHER DRILL DAY.
THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS HOW FAST THIS STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE EC IS THE FASTEST AND WOULD HAVE
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GEM WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLS...IT WOULD OFFER
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT PCPN ON
NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST... WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHRA GOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KMSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN DROP IT
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF ALL BUT PERHAPS KEAU BY MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHRA... BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DIP
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SCATTERED SHRA WE/RE SEEING FOG DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER... PARTICULARLY WHERE SNOW MELTED YESTERDAY. COULD
DEFINITELY SEE SOME ISSUES WITH IFR AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR AT KSTC
AND KRNH THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE NEXT
ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REJUVENATING THE
SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STILL
BE LOITERING IN THE VICINITY. IT APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z... SO AT THIS POINT THE ONLY TAF WHERE ANY MENTION IS
NEEDED SHOULD BE KMSP... SO INCLUDED A VCSH THERE AFTER 07Z.
KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH WHEN WE/LL SEE THE CURRENT
SHRA ACTIVITY FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING... BUT IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
1-2 HOURS SLOWER. IN ADDITION... INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEPARTS AND WE POTENTIALLY SEE
A BIT OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT POSSIBILITY
IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW... AND IT COULD EASILY NOT OCCUR OR BE A BIT
WORSE SHOULD CLOUDS DEPART MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A SMALL LINE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL FGEN INCREASING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THIS IS AN AREA OF
MINIMUM LCL-LFC RH AS DEPICTED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS. IR PICS AND
OBS INDICATE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND ENHANCED SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED SYNOPTIC
GRAVITY WAVE GENERATION AREA...ALSO SEEN IN EARLIER VISIBLE SAT
IMAGES. DRY LAYER BELOW CLOUD BASE SO ANY PRECIP IS EVAPORATING
CURRENTLY...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED IN WEAK RADAR ECHOES AS WELL.
BELIEVE THE MID LEVEL FGEN WILL TIGHTEN AS THE EJECTING UPPER PV
ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND THIS AREA OVERLAYS BETTER
MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA IN DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS INDICATED IN THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT HOWEVER. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM IT/S CURRENT
LOCATION IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
STRETCH FROM NEAR NORFOLK TO LEXINGTON TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALOFT INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING SUNDAY MORNING FROM
ROUGHLY THE ONEILL AREA...SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF
OUTPUT...BUT JUST DON/T FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING FORECAST DRY DUE TO
THE ABOVE FACTORS. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID
MORNING ONWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY AFTERNOON...DUE HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING...SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE SAME AREA.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP 0 TO 3KM LAPSE RATES...OVER
9C/KM...ARE NOTED INVOF THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE DECENT...ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM. AROUND 700J/KG OF
SURFACE BASE CAPE IS AVAILABLE...AND DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPE SUNDAY EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SRN CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA.
MOISTURE FOR THIS RAIN IS QUESTIONABLE THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS
GETTING SHUNTED EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS INTO
THE FCST AREA MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE PIVOTAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS SHOWN IS A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN TEXAS
TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY AND MOISTURE RETURNING UP THE CNTL AND
EVEN NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE
EAST OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES AIMED AT THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE COLO FRONT RANGE AND
LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTN WHICH COULD CARRY INTO THE FCST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 LATE TUESDAY WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS MONDAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
HIGHS INCREASE TO THE 70S TUESDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE WEST.
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE
FORCED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST WHERE THE MOISTURE WOULD BE
DEEPEST. THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES ON TRACK. SOME
SOLNS LIKE THE GFS AND GEF ARE FARTHER WEST WITH THE DRYLINE BUT WE
WONT FOCUS ON LOCATION AS MUCH AS EVOLUTION AND THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DEEP STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
WHICH INTERACTS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. MODEL TIMING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN VARIES WITH THE GFS AND
GEF FASTEST AND THE ECM AND GEM SLOWEST. THE FASTER MODELS GENERATE
MORE STORM COVERAGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND THEN COOL INTO
THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS
TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PULL SOME LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH SPILLS THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. THE ECM INCREASES RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THIS
HAS BEEN PUT ON HOLDING PENDING THE TIMING OF THAT SECOND SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEAST CO. SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW ALLOWING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. 20.03Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWING MID LEVEL FGEN TIGHTENING AS WAS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND INTERACTING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
MESOANALYSIS AND EVENING UPPER AIR. LLJ HAS INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL
KS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH KUEX INDICATING 50KTS IN THE 500M
LEVEL. THEREFORE ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THIS FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION WAS FIGHTING
DRY AIR INITIALLY. BELIEVE THIS MID LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE KLBF TAF SITE TONIGHT...AND
WELL SOUTH OF KVTN.
AS FOR SUNDAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW AND WORK WITH UNSTABLE AIR
TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE KLBF TAF SITE
AT THIS POINT MAINLY DUE TO THE IDEA THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE MAIN ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH AGAIN WILL BE
EAST OF THE SITE...THOUGH ISOLATED SHRA MAY DEVELOP FOR EITHER TAF
SITE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY AFFECTING TAF SITE SPECIFICALLY IS LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE KVTN TAF SITE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT AFTER THE PERIOD FOR KLBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S ON
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
RETURN. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S READINGS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP HEIGHT
FIELDS WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING
MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ONLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED THERE AS LOW
HUMIDITIES EXIST BELOW MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. CONGESTUS CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AREA OF INCREASING
BUT STILL WEAK INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES
WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE SLOW
MOISTURE RETURN WAS HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM WERE ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVER TOP OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND
MESO SCALE MODELS (NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF) INDICATE CONVECTION
POPPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOMETIME IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD THIS
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WHEN STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CAPE
800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KT...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT BRIDGING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AFTERNOON
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS LIMITED. SO
AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES ARE SMALL...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN WILL RULE THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT PASSES
BY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT MID WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
UNDER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG THEN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT BETTER CHANCES COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WILL STILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS NEAR KOFK AND THE WINDS THERE ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWEST AND THE WINDS GO SOUTH
SIMILAR TO KOMA/KLNK. SHRA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM KOFK TAF...BUT AN ISO SHRA STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. WE DO EXPECT A
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA ON SUN BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1009 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER
A WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8 KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AS LOW AS 15K FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS. ON SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AOA 25K FEET OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW
AS 15K FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY SHOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE COMPARED TO WHAT THE
GRIDS HAVE IN THEM FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NICE CUMULUS LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY AND
THERE WERE SOME RETURNS BEING PICKED UP BY THE WSR-88D OUT OF RENO.
GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO KEEP GOING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES, I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD IN SHOWERS FOR
THIS EVENING IN THOSE AREAS. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS OK FOR NOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 137 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN ANCHORED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CUMULUS FIELD IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH RADAR DETECTING LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM MEADVIEW TO
KINGMAN. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS IT LOOKS LIKE NO SHOWERS WILL GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA CONTINUES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.
JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT IN FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTY FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST DEEPENS. WILL BE BREEZY MOST AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. RIDGETOP WINDS ALONG THE EAST
SIERRA SLOPES WILL REALLY START TO HOWL MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OF INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH FOR
TUESDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY (GUSTS OVER 40 MPH) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE OTHER HAND LOOK LESS AND
LESS PROMISING WITH JUST THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
HAVING ANY CHANCE AT ALL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE JUST DRY
AND WINDY.
SPEAKING OF DRY AND WINDY...THE COMBINED FORCES WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THANKS TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA BELOW 6000 FEET WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
ON WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. THEREAFTER MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF WINDY
CONDITIONS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...PIERCE/OUTER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE NE. OTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
SOCORRO AND NW LINCOLN COUNTIES. TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR A TEMPO
GROUP IN SAF AND VCSH IN LVS. ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN SUNDAY PM FAVORING THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE...WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1103 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS TOWARD LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE FAR NE LOOKS TO BE THE
FAVOR AREAS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO BUMPED DOWN LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CURRENT TEMPS WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1103 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS TOWARD LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE FAR NE LOOKS TO BE THE
FAVOR AREAS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO BUMPED DOWN LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CURRENT TEMPS WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1103 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS TOWARD LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE FAR NE LOOKS TO BE THE
FAVOR AREAS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO BUMPED DOWN LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CURRENT TEMPS WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...546 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE NIGHT OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND MT OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY. ONLY GOING WITH VCTS AND VCSH FOR
FMN...GUP...ABQ AND AEG. CATEGORICAL FOR SAF...LVS AND TCC THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY ARE ALL REPORTING RAIN. A BIT OF A
LULL POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION FIRING IN THE
AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL
AS THE NE WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REACH. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN
CONUS MON NIGHT AS DEEP RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CORE OF
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND SFC LOW SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ENTER OUR CWFA AT THAT TIME...MOVING
OUT TUE EVENING. WE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE BETTER FORCING THOUGH
SOME DPVA IS PROGGED AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH PASSES.
FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MURKY...SO PRECIP
CHANCES MOSTLY RESULT FROM DECENT PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY. CAPE
PROFILES ARE SKINNY ON PROG SOUNDINGS AND DEEP SATURATION IS
INITIALLY EVIDENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO PROMPT LITTLE
CONCERN...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRYING RAPIDLY OCCURS
ABV 700 MB. THIS OCCURS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT. THUS SOME OF THE LATER STORM ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A MICROBURST AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS PLAINS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ERN US...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY IN THE
MTNS WHERE A VERY SHALLOW SFC BASED MOIST LAYER REMAINS IN NW FLOW.
BRISK WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AT THAT TIME BUT THESE
SUBSIDE TOWARD DAWN WED. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU
WED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS THE FA BUT LACKING MOISTURE
ANYWAY. THICKNESSES DO DROP A BIT FOR WED...RETURNING TEMPS TO AROUND
NORMAL DESPITE PRIME INSOLATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE HIGH DIVING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP
RETURN FLOW. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
PARENT SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SOURCE REGIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS INDICATIVE OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO DIAL IN ON STORM MODES AND SPECIFIC TIMING/INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PW VALUES APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES LEADING TO MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CAPE PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH
END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS/MIDLANDS BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY LEADING
TO A DRY FCST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME POPS SLOWLY RAMP
UP ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST ZONES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DESPITE THE FROPA FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRATO-CU WITH BASES OF 5-6KFT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE KCLT AIRFIELD FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAY. THE NAM BRINGS THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE THE AIRFIELD BY 21 UTC AND
KEEPS THEM IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE GFS AND RUC ARE MUCH DRIER AND
NEVER BRING THE CLOUDS THAT FAR WEST. THE NAM LLVL RH FIELDS ALREADY
LOOK OVERDONE...AND I/VE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF FEW060 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN HORIZON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS INDICATED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...I DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FOG AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE MAXES TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BUBBLE UP IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO SUPPORT PRE/FRONTAL AFTN TSRA
TUE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TUE EVENING...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIGHER RIDGE TOPS EARLY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SHARP UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF...WHICH WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO ALLOW AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE
CWFA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THRU
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTBY/SHEAR AND FORCING TO
WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON
TUESDAY. STILL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUESDAY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRATO-CU WITH BASES OF 5-6KFT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE KCLT AIRFIELD FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAY. THE NAM BRINGS THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE THE AIRFIELD BY 21 UTC AND
KEEPS THEM IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE GFS AND RUC ARE MUCH DRIER AND
NEVER BRING THE CLOUDS THAT FAR WEST. THE NAM LLVL RH FIELDS ALREADY
LOOK OVERDONE...AND I/VE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF FEW060 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN HORIZON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS INDICATED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...I DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FOG AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY WITH A SECONDARY
AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. 18Z TEXAS TECH WRF HAS
HANDLED THIS EVENINGS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL AND IS SUPPORTED WITH
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE EAST TEXAS CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD AND CLIPPING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS ALL BUT
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE MIN TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS
THE METRO AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 84 62 85 64 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 84 62 85 65 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 77 65 79 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
756 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A WEAK IMPULSE
WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. THESE HAVE DONE WELL JUST TO ARRIVE WITHIN A FAIRLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SO HAVE EARNED
AMENDED FORECAST STATUS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VERY WEAK HIGH-BASED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING EITHER LOCATION. MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE. ALSO...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW. IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST. UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS. BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 80 55 81 45 / 20 0 10 10 10
TULIA 51 80 56 83 47 / 10 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 53 80 58 84 49 / 10 0 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 52 82 58 85 48 / 10 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 55 82 59 86 51 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 53 84 60 84 51 / 10 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 54 83 60 86 48 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 55 83 54 86 58 / 0 0 0 30 30
SPUR 56 84 57 86 54 / 0 0 0 20 20
ASPERMONT 59 86 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHRA FOR KCLL AND KUTS
BASED ON THE LATEST RAP 13. FURTHER SOUTH...AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. KHGX VWP STILL
SHOWS SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD OR DENSE FOG WILL BECOME. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST DURING THE MORNING AND NW-N DURING THE AFTN. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX THIS
AFTN SO WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE IN THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING. NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE FCST HOWEVER AS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OVER OUR NRN ZONES INITIALLY (IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY). POPS
SHOULD WORK DOWN TO THE COAST TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOW-
LY SAGS INTO THE REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD/STRONG SHRA/
TSRAS WITH THIS FROPA GIVEN THE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY/CAPPED AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE DRIER THIS INCOMING AIRMASS SHOULD WARM UP
RATHER EFFICIENTLY TOMORROW/TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WX SYSTEM) TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN/STRENGTHEN. SO...MOSTLY DRY/SEASONAL
TEMPS/SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FCST FOR THIS WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN LATE FRI AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK ON THE
IDEA OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE GENERALLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THESE LOW POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE UP-
COMING WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS APPEARS TO BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POSSIBLE STRONG(ISH) LATE SEASON COLD FRONT NEXT TUES. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM THUS FAR WITH THIS FCST. 41
MARINE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW BUT BUILD TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN A LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH. 39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 84 62 85 64 / 30 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 84 62 85 65 / 20 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 77 65 79 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...
VIS SAT SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
AND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. A FEW
RETURNS HAVE SHOWED UP ON RADAR OVER PARMER COUNTY WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH THIS CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE /DRY/ LINE AS SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF. THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST
MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS PUSHING IN AND IS INCREASING OUR LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED SKIES ARE
HELPING AID SOME SURFACE HEATING IN TURN HELPING TO SLOWLY ERODE
WHAT CAP IS LEFT. AS CLEARER SKIES MOVE EASTWARD THIS SHOULD HELP
WARM THE SURFACE MORE TO THE POINT OF FULL CAP EROSION. THIS WILL
HELP FIRE CONVECTION MORE QUICKLY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTWARD. WHILE CAPE THERMO
PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND WINDS...0-6KM SHEAR IS
HIGH END MARGINAL TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND 35 KTS ALONG THE I27/HWY84 CORRIDOR. I HAVE KEPT
INHERITED POPS BEFORE 00Z WITH SVR MENTION AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO
50 POPS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE DRY
LINE/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO 80S
TOMORROW AS CAA WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED DURING THE MORNING AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR MAKING WAY FOR SOLAR HEATING. ALDRICH
&&
.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY TRANSITS WTX DOWNSTREAM OF A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX WITH THE EAST-WEST POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NE ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER LARGE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
HOLD ON TO LOW-LVL MOISTURE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT
AND SUN ACROSS ERN ZONES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED POPS BELOW MENTION
FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY....TEMPS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 74 51 79 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
TULIA 51 76 50 80 55 / 30 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 53 78 51 81 56 / 20 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 54 80 54 82 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 82 56 81 60 / 20 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 55 78 55 82 61 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 54 79 56 83 60 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 58 82 56 82 57 / 50 10 0 0 0
SPUR 58 83 57 82 60 / 40 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 60 85 58 83 61 / 40 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ON A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE LATE
EVENING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THIS EVENINGS PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS ERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH FURTHER WEST
TO KLBB COULD SEE SOME STORMS NEARBY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
OVERHEAD. STILL...CHANCES NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT TS
MENTION THERE BUT CERTAINLY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION AT KCDS.
AS FOR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY...00Z MODEL RUN BACKING OFF
THAT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AM
HESITANT TO REMOVE MENTION ATTM AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO TWEAK AS
TREND BECOMES CLEARER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADDRESS RECENT TRENDS. MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS
TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 18Z GFS AND 00Z
TTU-WRF NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THAT
HAS COME OUT OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND INTO SRN HALF OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME IF
MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...AND THE RAIN SHOULD STAY MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED PRE-06Z POPS
FOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND ADJUSTED 06Z-12Z POPS TO INCREASE KEEPING
SERN ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
AVIATION...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF KCDS THE FIRST TWO
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE EVENING AS
THE NEXT WAVE IS SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTS OF
SRN NM TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR TO THE NE
THIS CONVECTION WILL GO. SOME THREAT TO MAKE IT TO THE FCST AREA
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO INSERT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES SUNDAY AFTN FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB
AND WILL RUN WITH A PROB30 THERE FOR NOW. FINALLY...POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 74 49 77 49 / 40 20 10 10 0
TULIA 54 75 52 78 51 / 30 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 54 75 54 80 52 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 54 76 54 80 52 / 60 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 56 77 55 81 53 / 60 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 55 78 55 79 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 78 54 80 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 58 80 58 82 55 / 30 40 30 10 10
SPUR 57 79 59 84 55 / 50 40 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 58 79 60 85 56 / 50 40 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
923 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL RNK WRFARW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE CONVECTION BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AROUND
10Z. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH CONVECTION. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES
DEPICTED A FEW ECHOES MOSTLY ALOFT TO OUR WEST FIGHTING VERY DRY
AIR AS SEEN IN THE EVENING 00Z/8PM RNK SOUNDING. FIRST FEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BY DAYBREAK
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO MID 50S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSES RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.
STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.
THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.
THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRATO-CU OVER SE WEST VA LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL DRY
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER BLF/LWB WITH ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 927 PM EDT MONDAY...
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE
60-70 PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING
FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH
OR QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
915 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL RNK WRFARW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE CONVECTION BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AROUND
10Z. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH CONVECTION. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES
DEPICTED A FEW ECHOES MOSTLY ALOFT TO OUR WEST FIGHTING VERY DRY
AIR AS SEEN IN THE EVENING 00Z/8PM RNK SOUNDING. FIRST FEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BY DAYBREAK
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO MID 50S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSES RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.
STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.
THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.
THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME STRATO-CU OVER SE WEST VA LATE TONIGHT BUT STILL DRY
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY AND PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...LIKELY PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBYS SHOULD BE OVER BLF/LWB WITH ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT
TO THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 255 PM EDT MONDAY...
LOW HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT PAST SUNSET. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BELOW 10 MPH WHILE TURNING
MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH
VERY DRY FINE FUELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY INVOLVING BRUSH AND GRASS. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY RECOVER LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE 60-70
PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH OR
QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/WERT
FIRE WEATHER...JH/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WITH FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH
EAST OF KRST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KLSE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AND END
PRECIP THREAT. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...AND LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT WONT TAKE TOO MUCH TO REIGNITE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN MORE SO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...REINFORCING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT. EXPECTING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUES BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO...THEN
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG/BR AT KRST AND POSSIBLY KLSE...AND HAVE
REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR...BUT COULD SEE 1-2SM AT TIMES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE...SO
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH IN THE TAFS. AVOIDED FILLING TAFS
WITH LONG PERIODS OF TEMPO AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING AND EITHER USED
VCSH OR JUST PREVAILED -SHRA...KNOWING THAT -SHRA BY NATURE ARE SCT
AND PASSING FEATURES AT ANY ONE POINT. WITH TSRA COVERAGE GENERALLY
ISOLATED...LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF TSRA TRENDS TOWARD
MORE COVERAGE IN THE SHORTER TERM...UPDATES OR LATER TAF CYCLES CAN
ADD CB/VCTS OR TSRA AS NEEDED.
MOST CIGS/VSBYS TODAY THRU THIS EVENING WILL BE VFR...WITH ISOLATED/
WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHRA OR ANY TSRA.
FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING
TO POOL NEAR IT. GUIDANCE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/-SHRA LATER
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD MVFR IN BR/-SHRA
LATER TONIGHT IN EITHER TEMPO OR PREVAILING PERIOD AT KLSE/KRST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS BASICALLY STALLED...AND UP TO THIS POINT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD
CHANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE VCSH AT BOTH TAF
SITES FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
WINDS RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT LSE. AFTER
12Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 15Z AND AFTER 19Z AS THE FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE TAF SITES. THESE TIME PERIODS COINCIDE WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SHOULD SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL WITH SAY A
THUNDERSTORM...THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1109 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE POP GRIDS AND BRING IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER SUNSET. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
...INCREASING WINDS FOR TUESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK PV ANOMALY EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING COVERAGE HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
AND LACK OF MOISTURE HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH. HRRR HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING IN. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR
TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GFS IS DRIER WITH SFC DEW
POINTS (UPPER 20S)...WHILE NAM ACTUALLY INCREASES THEM IN THE
AFTERNOON (30S TO AROUND 40) AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND -SHRA/VIRGA
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST 4KM WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS MOISTENING
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS WHICH RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 18-25% RANGE...TOO HIGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. QUITE A BIT OF HUERFANO COUNTY HAD SOME GOOD RAIN FROM
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...SO THE MOST LIKE SPOTS FOR MARGINAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE PUEBLO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN EL PASO...AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. LOCAL
WRF IS SLOW TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DURATION TO LESS THAN THE 3 HR
REQUIRED MINIMUM. WITH ALL THESE MARGINAL CRITERIA...DECIDED NOT TO
HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS MORE HIGH RES MODELS BEGIN TO RESOLVE THESE FINER
DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH BASED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND ONLY SOME BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTTY AREAS. A MARGINALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES
WILL ONLY BE RUNNING AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO POPS...TEMPERATURES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR EASTERN SECTIONS AT TIMES.
RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PAINTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
THEN BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME WILL DEPICT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME
IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.
NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE VARYING FORECAST TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GFS FURTHEST SOUTH AND ECMWF AND DGEX FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
18Z NEXT MONDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.
FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT KALS...AND 25 KTS AT
KCOS. IN ADDITION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD
EAST INTO THE KALS AND KCOS REGIONS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
THAT ONE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER 20Z
AND PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VIS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.
TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.
SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.
HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.
BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.
SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY OVERNT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).
RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FOR THIS UPDATE NEEDED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY NOT
FALLEN MUCH AT ALL. THIS WAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE...DESPITE DEWPOINTS REMAINDER VERY LOW.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES) HAVE SKIMMED OUR NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THESE WERE MOVING
AWAY...AND THERE WERE NO MORE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.
TRIMMED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCREDIBLY LOW
DEWPOINTS...AND THE FACT THAT LATEST RUC INDICATED NO SHOWERS
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER DAYBREAK.
SO FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
FALL...HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...LOCALLY AROUND 50 AT ALBANY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF KEEPS SCT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WITH TEMPS COOLING HAVE ALSO FORECAST THE RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES...WITH
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH COOL AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...IT WILL HELP
PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT IN CASE THE
WINDS BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID 40S
TO THE 50S.
HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS LATER THURSDAY AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGHS
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AROUND 50
IN NORTHERN AREAS.
BY FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. STILL...WITH SOME WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THEN...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY...WITH A
GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN AROUND JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
FORMING A NEW UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ITS PROXIMITY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
WE HAVE DECENT COVERAGE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY OR
ISOLATED COVERAGE.
SINCE THERE IS SUCH A SPREAD...JUST SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
DAY/AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH...AT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...THE MIXED CLOUD COVER
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER ENERGY COULD BE CENTERED FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND SO THAT WE WOULD HAVE MORE SUN...LESS COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ONLY SITE
WHERE VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED BEFORE 18Z IS AT KGFL...WHERE A SHOWER
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10
KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY PM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).
RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE WIND TONIGHT WILL SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND AROUND 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE LEVEL OF THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK HAS DROPPED TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
413 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
THESE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO PATCHY SMOKE COULD BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY DUE TO AN ONGOING BRUSH FIRE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND VARIABLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO SET UP. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND STALL LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT
LINGERS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO
THURSDAY BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
MODEST UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT TODAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN
NATURE TODAY, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A WEAK SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO TRY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTION AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SEA BREEZE BATTLES THE WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN
THIS, HAVE MAINLY A SSE FLOW ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC SITES INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, THEN BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
LATE EVENING, INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. WINDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 65 83 69 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 69 83 71 / 10 0 10 10
MIAMI 83 69 84 71 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 82 64 81 66 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WITH SLOWING THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY DOWN...AND
LATEST TAF SET REFLECTS THAT TREND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DONT
REALLY SHOW PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS...BUT COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 51 76 53 / 60 30 0 0
ATLANTA 77 51 74 55 / 60 30 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 43 70 45 / 60 30 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 74 49 73 48 / 60 30 0 0
COLUMBUS 78 56 79 57 / 50 40 5 0
GAINESVILLE 74 49 75 54 / 60 30 0 0
MACON 80 55 79 53 / 50 50 5 0
ROME 75 48 73 46 / 60 30 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 76 51 76 51 / 60 30 5 0
VIDALIA 83 59 80 59 / 50 50 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
549 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.
TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.
TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
1Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.
THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.
UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.
THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.
TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.
TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
PRELIMINARY LONG TERM...WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF
THE UPCOMING END OF THE WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY
TO MNM.
WILL UPDATE HWO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. HAVE 4 TO 7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY FCST SO
EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE IT/S ALL
SAID AND DONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.
TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.
TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
PRELIMINARY LONG TERM...WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF
THE UPCOMING END OF THE WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY
TO MNM.
WILL UPDATE HWO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. HAVE 4 TO 7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY FCST SO
EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE IT/S ALL
SAID AND DONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.
ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
PRELIMINARY LONG TERM...WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF
THE UPCOMING END OF THE WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY
TO MNM.
WILL UPDATE HWO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. HAVE 4 TO 7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY FCST SO
EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE IT/S ALL
SAID AND DONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.
ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.P. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID TREND SOME OF THE
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PWATS OF 40-45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WOULD SUPPORT GOING AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE.
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WILL COME ONSHORE TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-305K
SURFACES WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL STEADILY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEARS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS POINT DUE TO
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS WITH THE THERMAL FIELD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
AREA...IT ENCOUNTERS A ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
700MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS LAYER
REMAINS STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. AS FOR THE MODELS...THE
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE COOLEST AND THE 12Z GEM IS
IN BETWEEN INITIALLY. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC IN THESE SITUATIONS AS JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN 925-700MB OF 1-2C ONE WAY OR ANOTHER CAN MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THUS...WILL
FOLLOW AN IDEA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP AND
LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (OVER
THE SOUTH HALF). THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL PLACE IT OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO FRIDAY. BY
THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW...THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA AND EXPECT
MORE OF A SCATTERED/LIGHT PRECIP TO REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND AROUND 0.5-1.0IN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THAT MATCHES
UP WELL WITH SOME OF THE ECMWF/GFS QPF PROBS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW POTENTIAL IS TRICKY BUT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TREND SEEN IN THE 12Z MODELS CREATES CONCERN FOR MEASURABLE (AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO ITS
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH. FINALLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM...THE COLD AIR AND BREEZING CONDITIONS SURGING IN BEHIND THE
LOW ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE AS A HUDSON BAY HIGH BECOMES
STATIONARY AND LEADS TO DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AT THIS TIME MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1230 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.
ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.P. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID TREND SOME OF THE
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PWATS OF 40-45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WOULD SUPPORT GOING AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE.
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WILL COME ONSHORE TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-305K
SURFACES WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL STEADILY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEARS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS POINT DUE TO
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS WITH THE THERMAL FIELD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
AREA...IT ENCOUNTERS A ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
700MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS LAYER
REMAINS STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. AS FOR THE MODELS...THE
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE COOLEST AND THE 12Z GEM IS
IN BETWEEN INITIALLY. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC IN THESE SITUATIONS AS JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN 925-700MB OF 1-2C ONE WAY OR ANOTHER CAN MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THUS...WILL
FOLLOW AN IDEA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP AND
LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (OVER
THE SOUTH HALF). THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL PLACE IT OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO FRIDAY. BY
THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW...THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA AND EXPECT
MORE OF A SCATTERED/LIGHT PRECIP TO REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND AROUND 0.5-1.0IN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THAT MATCHES
UP WELL WITH SOME OF THE ECMWF/GFS QPF PROBS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW POTENTIAL IS TRICKY BUT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TREND SEEN IN THE 12Z MODELS CREATES CONCERN FOR MEASURABLE (AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO ITS
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH. FINALLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM...THE COLD AIR AND BREEZING CONDITIONS SURGING IN BEHIND THE
LOW ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE AS A HUDSON BAY HIGH BECOMES
STATIONARY AND LEADS TO DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AT THIS TIME MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE FIRST AT KCMX AND KSAW
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND THEN OVERNIGHT AT KIWD. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTN AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER AT 07Z
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS
THE WINDS INCREASE AND IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO RAP
MODEL. SINCE MOS HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVERDUE THE MOISTURE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND ALLBLEND. THIS GIVES
RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITERIA FOR RFW THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN
ON ADDRESSING VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER INDEX IN HWO FOR NOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE INTO THE AREA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HELPS
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL INDICATE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT HANG AROUND IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN
CLEAR RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. DRY WEATHER AFTER
THAT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE COMES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
KANSAS. SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INDICATED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
THAT THE GFS CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM SOONER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EURO. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
SOME MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BRING THE THREAT
OF FOG FORMATION AND THE HRRR AND RAP DO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF THIS.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG ON LONGER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AND CIRRUS IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY FOG MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST KEEP AN EYE
ON THINGS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AS
EXPECTED AFTER WE LOST DAYTIME HEATING. THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
AND WE WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THINK THAT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE 40S AND DOWN INTO THE 30S BY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A TAD THIS EVENING AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. KEEP
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUE NIGHT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONTINUITY PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUED TO THIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY BUT WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FA THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FA TOWARD TUE MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON TUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN FA WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ND. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION
AND WIND GET GOING TUE NIGHT. MODELS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAIN AXIS
OF PCPN WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE EAST-WEST AND FURTHEST EAST. ITS
850MB WINDS ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH ONE SEGMENT POINTING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WINDS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN PCPN BAND SETTING UP IN THAT PATTERN.
LIKE THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS IT DOES MATCH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON THE 12Z RUNS SO WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY AS SHOWERS FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CHANGE THIS
IDEA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
STILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THEM FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
LOOKS QUITE WINDY ON WED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME DRYING MAY
WORK INTO THE FA ON THU MORNING BUT THIS LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN
WITH SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKING AT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER BAND.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON TRANSITION FROM THE MIDWEEK LARGE SCALE...MOIST NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND... WITH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSITION
PERIOD. THUS KEPT A FAIRLY LOW /CHC/ POP AND LOW QPF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY... THE NP
AREA APPEARS STUCK UNDER AN H5 OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IF THIS HOLDS...
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT TYPICALLY MEANS SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS
AND VERY DRY AIR IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A WEAK IMPULSE
WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. THESE HAVE DONE WELL JUST TO ARRIVE WITHIN A FAIRLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SO HAVE EARNED
AMENDED FORECAST STATUS. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VERY WEAK HIGH-BASED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING EITHER LOCATION. MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE. ALSO...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW. IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST. UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS. BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 80 55 81 45 / 20 0 10 10 10
TULIA 51 80 56 83 47 / 10 0 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 53 80 58 84 49 / 10 0 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 52 82 58 85 48 / 10 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 55 82 59 86 51 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 53 84 60 84 51 / 10 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 54 83 60 86 48 / 0 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 55 83 54 86 58 / 0 0 0 30 30
SPUR 56 84 57 86 54 / 0 0 0 20 20
ASPERMONT 59 86 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND PASS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING BLUSTERY AND COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL RNK WRFARW BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND 08Z TUESDAY. THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE CONVECTION BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN AROUND
10Z. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH CONVECTION. REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGES
DEPICTED A FEW ECHOES MOSTLY ALOFT TO OUR WEST FIGHTING VERY DRY
AIR AS SEEN IN THE EVENING 00Z/8PM RNK SOUNDING. FIRST FEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BY DAYBREAK
EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS TO MID 50S ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LIMITED LAPSES RATES EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 605 PM EDT MONDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. THIS EVENING RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS 1019 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE A CHALLENGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG
DROPS IN THE EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES
OR STEADY IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR
THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A GOOD
EVENING.
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE AND UPSTREAM 5H
HEIGHT FALLS DAMPEN OUT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY SO
THINKING THAT MOST -SHRA SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
DAYBREAK AT THIS POINT. OTRW MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND PC EAST BY MORNING. LOWS A BIT TRICKY WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE QUICK TEMP FALLS WHILE CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN
A STEADYING OUT SCENARIO OVERNIGHT ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THEREFORE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS WEST ESPCLY
RIDGES...AND WITH THE COLDER MAV EAST WHERE SHOULD STAY CLEAR
LONGER.
STILL QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEGREE OF QPF THAT MIGHT OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER IN PUSHING INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT EAST CLOSER TO THE LEE
TROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS LOTS OF CLOUDS TO ARRIVE EARLY OVER THE WEST
WHICH COULD LIMIT HEATING AND CAUSE A JUMP IN FADING SHRA OVER THE
WEST TO A DEEPER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE EAST OF THE CWA GIVEN
DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR NOW WILL GO A BIT
SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE SPC WRF SOLUTION IN BRINGING SHRA INTO THE
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING UNDER A FAINT WAVE ALOFT...THEN WEAKENING
BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON UNDER THE LEE TROUGH AS SEEING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
BACKING FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTRW SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN
RATHER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR AND LAPSES...WITH ONLY THE DRIER
LOW LEVELS POSSIBLY ENHANCING LOCALIZED WINDS IF ANY CELLS CAN
GET ORGANIZED/STRONG ENOUGH AND A SPLIT OUT EAST DOESN`T OCCUR.
THUS CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FOR NOW WITH LESS SE GIVEN WEST
WINDS AND HIGHER PROBS NW WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH OF QPF COULD
OCCUR. ELSW APPEARS LOW QPF WITH ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
EAST AND PERHAPS UP TO A QUARTER INCH ELSW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO PUSH 80 AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PIEDMONT...WITH
70S BLUE RIDGE BUT ONLY MID/UPPER 60S WEST WHERE CLOUDS/-SHRA
COULD KEEP VALUES EVEN COOLER PENDING EARLIER TIMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
BY 00Z (7 PM EDT) TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AIR WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. BUFKIT TIME CROSS
SECTION SHOWS 50 KTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 5KT FEET. BUMPED UP
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST
VALUES STILL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO
COOLER GFS GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD DRYING ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS GUIDANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...WITH A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGERS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH A RETURN TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.
THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
WITH BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT BLF/LWB WITH ONLY
LIGHTER SHOWERS OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 927 PM EDT MONDAY...
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOISTEN ABOVE
60-70 PERCENT BY EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH QPF RANGING
FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF WEST VA...TO A TENTH
OR QUARTER INCH BLUE RIDGE...TO LIKELY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH PIEDMONT. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MAY BE OF ADDED
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL
IS REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK/WERT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain today followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will fall
on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on Thursday,
with more showery conditions Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: a wet, breezy system moves across the Inland
Northwest. This morning a cold front was pushing into the
Cascades. It`s parent upper trough was moving onto the coastline,
with a 100kt jet streak on its southeast flank. The incoming
front, the diffluence in the LFQ of the jet and embedded impulses
in the southwesterly flow will mean deep-layer lift. Working with
PWATs between 0.50 to 0.75 inches (~150 to 200% of normal) this
will bring rain and higher mountain snow to the region through
this afternoon, before the threat wanes for some tonight.
Snow levels are forecast to be between 4-5kft near the Cascades
to near 6-7kft toward ID this morning. This afternoon and evening
snow levels to between 3.5-5kft this afternoon, before falling to
between 2-3kft overnight into Wednesday morning. Initially this
will mean the potential for light snow accumulations over the
Cascade passes, around Sherman Pass as the day progresses and
toward the Idaho Passes late this evening and overnight. Some may
even reach down to the higher valleys overnight, but by then the
threat of significant precipitation will have ended.
Precisely timing the precipitation will be the trickier part. Yet
thus far the HRRR model has been doing a reasonable approximation
of the near-term precipitation evolution. Following that guidance
and a radar extrapolation, I`m expecting precipitation to continue
moving north through the northern Cascades and Okanogan Valley and
Highlands early this morning. A second area of precipitation is
expected to expand north-northeast across the Upper Columbia Basin
and Blues into Spokane/C`DA area early this morning, then into the
northeastern WA mountains and ID Panhandle toward 15Z (8 AM PDT).
Between late morning and early afternoon, the cold front and upper
trough start to push east of the Cascades, allowing precipitation
to decrease to more widely scattered to isolated showers near the
Cascades and western Basin. Then late this afternoon and early
evening, the front pushes east toward the ID/MT border and the
primary upper trough axis will be on its heels. This will allow
the precipitation focus to back against the Cascades and into the
northeast and eastern mountains, while activity elsewhere becomes
more showery and dissipates into the evening. Overnight a second
shortwave disturbance pushes into the Cascades, renewing the
precipitation threat here and over the western Basin. The best
threat will remain in the Cascades. Further east the shower threat
lingers near the ID/MT border, but otherwise drier weather is
expected until Wednesday morning.
There were some isolated lightning strikes late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning south of our region. Toward midday/afternoon,
models depict some pockets of marginally favorable CAPE/LI values
across northeast WA/ID. However it is nothing really comparable to
the convective instability that was associated with the lightning
I was seeing south of our region last night. So my confidence that
it will result in some thunder in our region is low. So I have
elected to leave thunder out of the forecast for now. This will be
monitored.
The other issue of the day will be winds. As the front and upper
trough sweep in a second low pressure begins to develop east of
the Divide. The resulting tightening gradient and mixing along the
front will allow winds to increase through the late morning and
early afternoon. As for the numbers: sustained winds of of 15-25
mph, with gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible, especially
between about midday to 7 or 8 pm. The gradient slackens some
going into this evening which should allow for a decline in the
overall winds. /J. Cote`
Wed through Sunday: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with Idaho
well into Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. A quick- moving short-wave trough
also tracks SE through SE Wa and NE Oregon Wed, increasing the
chances of pcpn as backing winds increase isentropic ascent.
Beginning Wed Nt, a more widespread stratiform pcpn event will
keep high chances of pcpn in the fcst for most zones... especially
Thurs as deep isentropic ascent over an advancing warm front, then
an occluding cold front, moves NE across the region. Warm
advection is sufficient to put much of SE Wa in the warm sector
south of the warm front. Due to the shearing/splitting of the
accompanying upper trough in response to a jet speed max digging
toward northern California Thurs Nt, the occluded front will stall
directly across Ern Wa and N Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary
won`t begin to move out of the area until Sat, leading to a very
cool and showery Fri and Sat. There is also a significant vort max
that moves north into Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged
pcpn threat. Temperatures will remain below normal for most areas,
a result of the numerous short-waves... then the stalling front
Fri through the weekend. bz
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Region looks to be in a transition
period as we finally start to exit the very active and wet period
for more of a dry and much calmer pattern. Beginning Sunday night,
the large scale trough dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska
appears to be held at bay by a building ridge from the south.
Mainly remnant moisture remains which is one reason low chance
POPs were kept through Monday. Also as the ridge continues to
grasp control of the pattern, the jet will pass right over the
region Monday bringing some better dynamics. Both the Euro and
GFS currently agree on the solution of the building ridge allowing
for some confidence. Any notable precip looks to remain on the
west side of the Cascades. Moving into Monday night and Tuesday
the ridge continues to control with lowering chances for precip as
time passes. Changes to the forecast include lowering POPs Monday
night and Tuesday while also lowering winds. As the ridge builds,
we should finally start to see temps climb back to near or
slightly above normal. With this forecast in the far extended
major shifts in the models are still possible, but for now this
period could be a nice break from the active, wet weather noted in
the previous week. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Precipitation associated with a slow moving cold front
has started at KEAT and KMWH. An area of heavy rain will approach
these terminal sites around 07Z with MVFR cigs possible. The area
of precipitation will move east and bring lowering ceilings and
rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday. Post
frontal winds will shift to the southwest and increase after 17Z
with gusts to 25 kts common. At KEAT downsloping winds will be out
of the northwest with gusts increasing to 35 kts and possibly
higher in the late afternoon Tuesday. Scattered instability showers
will be possible throughout the afternoon in a post frontal air
mass. Winds will diminish after 03Z Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 34 50 40 53 39 / 90 20 60 20 90 60
Coeur d`Alene 52 33 50 39 52 38 / 90 50 60 20 90 70
Pullman 51 35 51 42 52 40 / 90 30 60 30 90 60
Lewiston 57 39 56 46 58 44 / 90 20 60 40 80 60
Colville 58 32 58 36 57 39 / 90 30 40 10 90 40
Sandpoint 54 33 49 37 51 40 / 90 50 60 20 90 60
Kellogg 52 32 46 37 49 38 / 100 90 70 40 80 60
Moses Lake 60 39 62 44 64 38 / 60 20 10 40 50 10
Wenatchee 59 42 60 45 62 41 / 50 20 20 50 50 10
Omak 58 34 61 39 60 37 / 70 20 20 20 90 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
ONSET OF PRECIP FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WE
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE AFTN TO EVENING
HOURS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTN/EVE AS GFS/NAM AND EURO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, BUT AFTN MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, MAINLY HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SMALLER CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST
WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND
23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER
FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO
.25 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.
BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.
BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.
THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.
AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH
WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 44009
SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
SEAS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SCA
FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z AND CARRY INTO WED
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.
FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT DID
NOT INCLUDE VCSH FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BKN050 NEAR FLL AS A CLUSTER OF CU HUGS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BE RATHER ERRATIC ALONG THE
EAST COAST TODAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS NOT SHOWING IT MOVING
INLAND VERY FAR.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
THESE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO PATCHY SMOKE COULD BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY DUE TO AN ONGOING BRUSH FIRE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND VARIABLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO SET UP. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND STALL LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT
LINGERS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO
THURSDAY BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
MODEST UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. WINDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 65 83 69 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 69 83 71 / 10 0 10 10
MIAMI 83 69 84 71 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 82 64 81 66 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
724 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT DID
NOT INCLUDE VCSH FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BKN050 NEAR FLL AS A CLUSTER OF CU HUGS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BE RATHER ERRATIC ALONG THE
EAST COAST TODAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS NOT SHOWING IT MOVING
INLAND VERY FAR.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
THESE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO PATCHY SMOKE COULD BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY DUE TO AN ONGOING BRUSH FIRE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND VARIABLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO SET UP. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND STALL LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT
LINGERS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO
THURSDAY BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
MODEST UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT TODAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN
NATURE TODAY, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A WEAK SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO TRY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTION AS THE
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SEA BREEZE BATTLES THE WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN
THIS, HAVE MAINLY A SSE FLOW ALONG MOST OF THE ATLANTIC SITES INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, THEN BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
LATE EVENING, INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. WINDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 65 83 69 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 69 83 71 / 10 0 10 10
MIAMI 83 69 84 71 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 82 64 81 66 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
01
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY. DIDN`T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING TAF...PRECIP
TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD. MVFR CIGS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES
BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 51 76 53 / 60 30 0 0
ATLANTA 77 51 74 55 / 60 30 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 43 70 45 / 60 30 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 74 49 73 48 / 60 30 0 0
COLUMBUS 78 56 79 57 / 50 40 5 0
GAINESVILLE 74 49 75 54 / 60 30 0 0
MACON 80 55 79 53 / 50 50 5 0
ROME 75 48 73 46 / 60 30 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 76 51 76 51 / 60 30 5 0
VIDALIA 83 59 80 59 / 50 50 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1031 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.
TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.
TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.
THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-1.0IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.
UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.
THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF
HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTN. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTN AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND PERHAPS CMX THIS MRNG TO GIVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WL BE THE RULE TNGT AS THE SFC HI PRES
RDG MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
906 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.
TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.
TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.
THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.
UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.
THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF
HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTN. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTN AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND PERHAPS CMX THIS MRNG TO GIVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WL BE THE RULE TNGT AS THE SFC HI PRES
RDG MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.
TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.
TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
1Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.
THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.
UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.
THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF
HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTN. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTN AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND PERHAPS CMX THIS MRNG TO GIVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WL BE THE RULE TNGT AS THE SFC HI PRES
RDG MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER AT 07Z
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS
THE WINDS INCREASE AND IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO RAP
MODEL. SINCE MOS HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVERDUE THE MOISTURE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND ALLBLEND. THIS GIVES
RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITERIA FOR RFW THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN
ON ADDRESSING VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER INDEX IN HWO FOR NOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE INTO THE AREA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HELPS
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL INDICATE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT HANG AROUND IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN
CLEAR RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. DRY WEATHER AFTER
THAT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE COMES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
KANSAS. SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INDICATED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
THAT THE GFS CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM SOONER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EURO. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 140-160 DEGREES.
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 13 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 17Z WITH GUSTS
UP TO 21 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS AT KOMA/KLNK
BY 15-20Z. COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP BY 06Z AT KOFK...
AND 08Z AT KLNK/KOMA. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL...BUT TOO FAR OUT TO
PREDICT WITH CERTAINTY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AT ALL TAF SITES 06-12Z AS WELL...BUT AGAIN...TOO FAR OUT
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1126 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1100 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS A SOLID LINE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN. MEANWHILE...WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL
MIX WITH COOLER LAKE WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND EVENTUALLY NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. FOR TIMING
THIS...USED THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...BUT THIS MAY FILL IN SINCE IT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT IS DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND
THE UPPER TROF...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.
THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.
A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A SCA
FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. AHEAD OF THIS...RADAR SHOWS A SOLID LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH. MEANWHILE...WARM
AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL MIX WITH COOLER LAKE
WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EVENTUALLY
NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. FOR TIMING THIS...USED THE HRRR WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT.
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING
DRY SLOT NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS DRY SLOT WILL
REACH WNY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO
-3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.
THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS JHW/ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.
A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.
OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A SCA
FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
MOVED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CAROLINAS ARE NOW IN A
500-MILE WIDE ZONE OF WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN THE
OFFSHORE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA SHOWS THE 06Z GFS SHOWED TOO MUCH MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE 06Z
NAM AND RUC WERE MUCH CLOSER TO THE OBSERVED VALUES ON THE CHS AND
MHX SOUNDINGS. A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF SCATTERED HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING VIRGA FLURRIES OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 16000 FT AGL RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SEE OUR
NWS ILM FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGE FOR A PICTURE.
MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MODEL CAPE INCREASES TO 400-700 J/KG WITH MOST OF THAT
WAY UP IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER. THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...PRODUCED BY THE LACK OF ANY GULF OR ATLANTIC INFLOW...
WILL PROBABLY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. A DEEP DRY MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 7000 FEET
INLAND MEANS ANY CB CLOUD BASES ARE GOING TO BE WAY UP THERE...AND
ANY EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THAT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS PROBABLY AS CLOSE TO A CLASSIC WESTERN
UNITED STATES PATTERN AS YOU`LL SEE IN THE CAROLINAS.
BESIDES TWEAKING TIMING A LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS...I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP DISTRIBUTION FOR
THIS EVENT: 30 POPS INLAND AND 20 AT THE COAST.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE
SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD
ONLY MAKE 15-20 MILES INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA GIVEN
THE BACKGROUND WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE CAROLINAS. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING
WITH KFLO/KLBT BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A BRIEF SHOWER AT THE INLAND TERMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA.
BY 06Z...THE FRONT SHOULD BE AT OR JUST THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMS AS
MID LEVEL DRYING RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERY
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM 9 PM UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A MODERATE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP ON
TOP OF THE BACKGROUND WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-12 KNOT WIND...WITH SPEEDS
NEAR THE BEACHES INCREASING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 15-17 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
SMALL INCREASE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS WE`LL
SIMPLY BE TRADING A DECREASING LONG-PERIOD SWELL FOR AN INCREASED
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP AS TIME GOES ON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT
A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
ADD PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER
THAN A 15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN
RELAXING THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END
OF THE SIG WAVE FCST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1017 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
PRECEDING BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA DENOTED
BY A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS OFF VIS PICS. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY AS IT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER MIDDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING
FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EAST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AXIS OF 85H THETA-E SNEAKING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. HOWEVER CURRENT INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE AS WELL AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN
OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF REMAIN
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NW NC AFTER 18Z/2PM AS A FAINT IMPULSE
NOW OVER ERN TN SHEARS EAST. THUS HOLDING ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR
NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD WITH BEST QPF OVER THE SW AND LEAST
OVER THE NORTH. OTRW TRIMMING POPS BACK A BIT SOONER FAR WEST
WHILE ADJUSTING TIMING CENTRAL/EAST. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE TO CURRENT
VALUES EXCEPT LOWERING SOME NW PER CURRENT CLDNS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.
THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0700 AM EDT MONDAY...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LIGHTER SOWERS EXPECTED
OUT TO THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE CHANGEABLE.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE WEST VA.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MODEST RAINFALL
RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO AROUND
0.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER QUICK DROP
IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS REALIZED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain today followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will fall
on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on Thursday,
with more showery conditions Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: a wet, breezy system moves across the Inland
Northwest. This morning a cold front was pushing into the
Cascades. It`s parent upper trough was moving onto the coastline,
with a 100kt jet streak on its southeast flank. The incoming
front, the diffluence in the LFQ of the jet and embedded impulses
in the southwesterly flow will mean deep-layer lift. Working with
PWATs between 0.50 to 0.75 inches (~150 to 200% of normal) this
will bring rain and higher mountain snow to the region through
this afternoon, before the threat wanes for some tonight.
Snow levels are forecast to be between 4-5kft near the Cascades
to near 6-7kft toward ID this morning. This afternoon and evening
snow levels to between 3.5-5kft this afternoon, before falling to
between 2-3kft overnight into Wednesday morning. Initially this
will mean the potential for light snow accumulations over the
Cascade passes, around Sherman Pass as the day progresses and
toward the Idaho Passes late this evening and overnight. Some may
even reach down to the higher valleys overnight, but by then the
threat of significant precipitation will have ended.
Precisely timing the precipitation will be the trickier part. Yet
thus far the HRRR model has been doing a reasonable approximation
of the near-term precipitation evolution. Following that guidance
and a radar extrapolation, I`m expecting precipitation to continue
moving north through the northern Cascades and Okanogan Valley and
Highlands early this morning. A second area of precipitation is
expected to expand north-northeast across the Upper Columbia Basin
and Blues into Spokane/C`DA area early this morning, then into the
northeastern WA mountains and ID Panhandle toward 15Z (8 AM PDT).
Between late morning and early afternoon, the cold front and upper
trough start to push east of the Cascades, allowing precipitation
to decrease to more widely scattered to isolated showers near the
Cascades and western Basin. Then late this afternoon and early
evening, the front pushes east toward the ID/MT border and the
primary upper trough axis will be on its heels. This will allow
the precipitation focus to back against the Cascades and into the
northeast and eastern mountains, while activity elsewhere becomes
more showery and dissipates into the evening. Overnight a second
shortwave disturbance pushes into the Cascades, renewing the
precipitation threat here and over the western Basin. The best
threat will remain in the Cascades. Further east the shower threat
lingers near the ID/MT border, but otherwise drier weather is
expected until Wednesday morning.
There were some isolated lightning strikes late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning south of our region. Toward midday/afternoon,
models depict some pockets of marginally favorable CAPE/LI values
across northeast WA/ID. However it is nothing really comparable to
the convective instability that was associated with the lightning
I was seeing south of our region last night. So my confidence that
it will result in some thunder in our region is low. So I have
elected to leave thunder out of the forecast for now. This will be
monitored.
The other issue of the day will be winds. As the front and upper
trough sweep in a second low pressure begins to develop east of
the Divide. The resulting tightening gradient and mixing along the
front will allow winds to increase through the late morning and
early afternoon. As for the numbers: sustained winds of of 15-25
mph, with gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible, especially
between about midday to 7 or 8 pm. The gradient slackens some
going into this evening which should allow for a decline in the
overall winds. /J. Cote`
Wed through Sunday: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with Idaho
well into Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. A quick- moving short-wave trough
also tracks SE through SE Wa and NE Oregon Wed, increasing the
chances of pcpn as backing winds increase isentropic ascent.
Beginning Wed Nt, a more widespread stratiform pcpn event will
keep high chances of pcpn in the fcst for most zones... especially
Thurs as deep isentropic ascent over an advancing warm front, then
an occluding cold front, moves NE across the region. Warm
advection is sufficient to put much of SE Wa in the warm sector
south of the warm front. Due to the shearing/splitting of the
accompanying upper trough in response to a jet speed max digging
toward northern California Thurs Nt, the occluded front will stall
directly across Ern Wa and N Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary
won`t begin to move out of the area until Sat, leading to a very
cool and showery Fri and Sat. There is also a significant vort max
that moves north into Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged
pcpn threat. Temperatures will remain below normal for most areas,
a result of the numerous short-waves... then the stalling front
Fri through the weekend. bz
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Region looks to be in a transition
period as we finally start to exit the very active and wet period
for more of a dry and much calmer pattern. Beginning Sunday night,
the large scale trough dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska
appears to be held at bay by a building ridge from the south.
Mainly remnant moisture remains which is one reason low chance
POPs were kept through Monday. Also as the ridge continues to
grasp control of the pattern, the jet will pass right over the
region Monday bringing some better dynamics. Both the Euro and
GFS currently agree on the solution of the building ridge allowing
for some confidence. Any notable precip looks to remain on the
west side of the Cascades. Moving into Monday night and Tuesday
the ridge continues to control with lowering chances for precip as
time passes. Changes to the forecast include lowering POPs Monday
night and Tuesday while also lowering winds. As the ridge builds,
we should finally start to see temps climb back to near or
slightly above normal. With this forecast in the far extended
major shifts in the models are still possible, but for now this
period could be a nice break from the active, wet weather noted in
the previous week. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front migrates in today. Precipitation will
continue to expand across the eastern TAF sites this morning and
remain likely at times through the early afternoon (21Z), before
turning showery and retreating toward the mountains between late
afternoon and evening as that cold front passes. It will be
accompanied by areas of MVFR/IFR cigs around GEG to COE and PUW
and local MVFR cigs are possible in LWS through afternoon. There
is a small threat for isolated embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon toward the NE WA/N ID mountains, but the risk at this
hour was too small to include in the official forecast.
Precipitation toward MWH/EAT will be more showery in nature, with
the threat waning this afternoon. Winds increase through the
afternoon, especially between 18-03Z. Wind gusts of 20 to 35 kts
are possible, before abating after dark. The overall shower threat
wanes later this evening, but another disturbance will renew at
least a slight shower threat toward the western Basin overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 34 50 40 53 39 / 90 20 60 20 90 60
Coeur d`Alene 52 33 50 39 52 38 / 90 50 60 20 90 70
Pullman 51 35 51 42 52 40 / 90 30 60 30 90 60
Lewiston 57 39 56 46 58 44 / 90 20 60 40 80 60
Colville 58 32 58 36 57 39 / 90 30 40 10 90 40
Sandpoint 54 33 49 37 51 40 / 90 50 60 20 90 60
Kellogg 52 32 46 37 49 38 / 100 90 70 40 80 60
Moses Lake 60 39 62 44 64 38 / 60 20 10 40 50 10
Wenatchee 59 42 60 45 62 41 / 50 20 20 50 50 10
Omak 58 34 61 39 60 37 / 70 20 20 20 90 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
302 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL BRING COOL AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR RAIN GOING TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY TROUGH IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RAIN CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH.
WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWED A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WAS E OF 130W APPROACHING THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON IR
PICTURES WAS ISOLATED E OF 130W...BUT PICKED UP SOME FURTHER W. WILL
KEEP POPS HIGH OVER THE CASCADES THIS MORNING FOR THE DEPARTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT LIMIT POPS FURTHER W TO CHANCE CATEGORY.
DAYTIME WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE
ALOFT. BEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND BETWEEN 285K AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM LATE TUE NIGHT UNTIL WED EVENING. THIS
COUPLED WITH RATHER GENEROUS QPF FORECASTS IN ALL THE MODELS GIVES
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WED. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THU MORNING...AS LIFTING MECHANISM SWITCHES
TO DYNAMICS GENERATED BY A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE THU
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP POPS CATEGORICAL THROUGH THU MORNING.
SHOWERS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD UPPER
TROUGH DIGS IN TOWARDS THE COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW CASCADE PASSES INTO WED...BEFORE
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. OROGRAPHICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED AT THE
PASSES.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON THU...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY PASS OVER THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSH ONSHORE LATE SAT OR SUN WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL TREND
IS NOW TOWARD BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW TO START
NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL QUITE A WAY OUT...SO IT THERE IS PLENTY OF
REASON NOT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN TO THIS SOLUTION...BUT STARTED TO
TREND THE FCST TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER FOR NEXT MON. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY
TEMPORARY HIGH END IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT MVFR REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A DECENT SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE MUCH LOWER THAN MVFR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...THERE IS A CHANCE A TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIG
COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 FT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING DUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOISTEN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...A FRONT SHOULD SPREAD STEADIER RAIN INTO THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CREEPS EASTWARD TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND.
EXPECT GUSTY 2O TO 30 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP SOON THEREAFTER. WINDS
MAY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN...BUT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP QUICKLY AROUND DAYBREAK AS
ANOTHER INCOMING FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COASTAL
JET SHOULD ENHANCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THIS EVENT LIKELY BEING ON THE LOWER END
OF GALE FORCE CRITERIA IF IT HAPPENS...WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT
INGEST ONE MORE ROUND OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE A WATCH OR WARNING IS
HOISTED.
EITHER WAY...WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER THREAT
OF LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN SPREAD INTO THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WINDS SATURDAY. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM
THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
244 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain today followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will fall
on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on Thursday,
with more showery conditions Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: a wet, breezy system moves across the Inland
Northwest. This morning a cold front was pushing into the
Cascades. It`s parent upper trough was moving onto the coastline,
with a 100kt jet streak on its southeast flank. The incoming
front, the diffluence in the LFQ of the jet and embedded impulses
in the southwesterly flow will mean deep-layer lift. Working with
PWATs between 0.50 to 0.75 inches (~150 to 200% of normal) this
will bring rain and higher mountain snow to the region through
this afternoon, before the threat wanes for some tonight.
Snow levels are forecast to be between 4-5kft near the Cascades
to near 6-7kft toward ID this morning. This afternoon and evening
snow levels to between 3.5-5kft this afternoon, before falling to
between 2-3kft overnight into Wednesday morning. Initially this
will mean the potential for light snow accumulations over the
Cascade passes, around Sherman Pass as the day progresses and
toward the Idaho Passes late this evening and overnight. Some may
even reach down to the higher valleys overnight, but by then the
threat of significant precipitation will have ended.
Precisely timing the precipitation will be the trickier part. Yet
thus far the HRRR model has been doing a reasonable approximation
of the near-term precipitation evolution. Following that guidance
and a radar extrapolation, I`m expecting precipitation to continue
moving north through the northern Cascades and Okanogan Valley and
Highlands early this morning. A second area of precipitation is
expected to expand north-northeast across the Upper Columbia Basin
and Blues into Spokane/C`DA area early this morning, then into the
northeastern WA mountains and ID Panhandle toward 15Z (8 AM PDT).
Between late morning and early afternoon, the cold front and upper
trough start to push east of the Cascades, allowing precipitation
to decrease to more widely scattered to isolated showers near the
Cascades and western Basin. Then late this afternoon and early
evening, the front pushes east toward the ID/MT border and the
primary upper trough axis will be on its heels. This will allow
the precipitation focus to back against the Cascades and into the
northeast and eastern mountains, while activity elsewhere becomes
more showery and dissipates into the evening. Overnight a second
shortwave disturbance pushes into the Cascades, renewing the
precipitation threat here and over the western Basin. The best
threat will remain in the Cascades. Further east the shower threat
lingers near the ID/MT border, but otherwise drier weather is
expected until Wednesday morning.
There were some isolated lightning strikes late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning south of our region. Toward midday/afternoon,
models depict some pockets of marginally favorable CAPE/LI values
across northeast WA/ID. However it is nothing really comparable to
the convective instability that was associated with the lightning
I was seeing south of our region last night. So my confidence that
it will result in some thunder in our region is low. So I have
elected to leave thunder out of the forecast for now. This will be
monitored.
The other issue of the day will be winds. As the front and upper
trough sweep in a second low pressure begins to develop east of
the Divide. The resulting tightening gradient and mixing along the
front will allow winds to increase through the late morning and
early afternoon. As for the numbers: sustained winds of of 15-25
mph, with gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible, especially
between about midday to 7 or 8 pm. The gradient slackens some
going into this evening which should allow for a decline in the
overall winds. /J. Cote`
Wed through Sunday: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with Idaho
well into Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. A quick- moving short-wave trough
also tracks SE through SE Wa and NE Oregon Wed, increasing the
chances of pcpn as backing winds increase isentropic ascent.
Beginning Wed Nt, a more widespread stratiform pcpn event will
keep high chances of pcpn in the fcst for most zones... especially
Thurs as deep isentropic ascent over an advancing warm front, then
an occluding cold front, moves NE across the region. Warm
advection is sufficient to put much of SE Wa in the warm sector
south of the warm front. Due to the shearing/splitting of the
accompanying upper trough in response to a jet speed max digging
toward northern California Thurs Nt, the occluded front will stall
directly across Ern Wa and N Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary
won`t begin to move out of the area until Sat, leading to a very
cool and showery Fri and Sat. There is also a significant vort max
that moves north into Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged
pcpn threat. Temperatures will remain below normal for most areas,
a result of the numerous short-waves... then the stalling front
Fri through the weekend. bz
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Region looks to be in a transition
period as we finally start to exit the very active and wet period
for more of a dry and much calmer pattern. Beginning Sunday night,
the large scale trough dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska
appears to be held at bay by a building ridge from the south.
Mainly remnant moisture remains which is one reason low chance
POPs were kept through Monday. Also as the ridge continues to
grasp control of the pattern, the jet will pass right over the
region Monday bringing some better dynamics. Both the Euro and
GFS currently agree on the solution of the building ridge allowing
for some confidence. Any notable precip looks to remain on the
west side of the Cascades. Moving into Monday night and Tuesday
the ridge continues to control with lowering chances for precip as
time passes. Changes to the forecast include lowering POPs Monday
night and Tuesday while also lowering winds. As the ridge builds,
we should finally start to see temps climb back to near or
slightly above normal. With this forecast in the far extended
major shifts in the models are still possible, but for now this
period could be a nice break from the active, wet weather noted in
the previous week. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Precipitation associated with a slow moving cold front
has started at KEAT and KMWH. An area of heavy rain will approach
these terminal sites around 07Z with MVFR cigs possible. The area
of precipitation will move east and bring lowering ceilings and
rain to the eastern TAF sites between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday. Post
frontal winds will shift to the southwest and increase after 17Z
with gusts to 25 kts common. At KEAT downsloping winds will be out
of the northwest with gusts increasing to 35 kts and possibly
higher in the late afternoon Tuesday. Scattered instability showers
will be possible throughout the afternoon in a post frontal air
mass. Winds will diminish after 03Z Wednesday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 34 50 40 53 39 / 90 20 60 20 90 60
Coeur d`Alene 52 33 50 39 52 38 / 90 50 60 20 90 70
Pullman 51 35 51 42 52 40 / 90 30 60 30 90 60
Lewiston 57 39 56 46 58 44 / 90 20 60 40 80 60
Colville 58 32 58 36 57 39 / 90 30 40 10 90 40
Sandpoint 54 33 49 37 51 40 / 90 50 60 20 90 60
Kellogg 52 32 46 37 49 38 / 100 90 70 40 80 60
Moses Lake 60 39 62 44 64 38 / 60 20 10 40 50 10
Wenatchee 59 42 60 45 62 41 / 50 20 20 50 50 10
Omak 58 34 61 39 60 37 / 70 20 20 20 90 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE
BURNING QUESTION, WHEN WILL THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM? IT IS
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO FORM ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT HAVING
A HARD TIME DUE TO THE BKN-OVC CLOUD CONDITIONS. SO WITH TIME, IT
MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND. SURFACE WIND AFT 00Z WILL
AGAIN BECOME L/V WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING...GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT DID
NOT INCLUDE VCSH FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BKN050 NEAR FLL AS A CLUSTER OF CU HUGS THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BE RATHER ERRATIC ALONG THE
EAST COAST TODAY WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS NOT SHOWING IT MOVING
INLAND VERY FAR.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
THESE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO PATCHY SMOKE COULD BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY ALONG SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY DUE TO AN ONGOING BRUSH FIRE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND VARIABLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO SET UP. OTHERWISE...DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND STALL LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT
LINGERS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO
THURSDAY BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
MODEST UPPER RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESULTANT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE
MORNING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. WINDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THEREFORE WILL
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.
STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
01
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR IN RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVING AFTER 00Z. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
41
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 51 76 53 / 60 30 0 0
ATLANTA 77 51 74 55 / 60 30 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 68 43 70 45 / 60 30 5 0
CARTERSVILLE 74 49 73 48 / 60 30 0 0
COLUMBUS 78 56 79 57 / 50 40 5 0
GAINESVILLE 74 49 75 54 / 60 30 0 0
MACON 80 55 79 53 / 50 50 5 0
ROME 75 48 73 46 / 60 30 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 76 51 76 51 / 60 30 5 0
VIDALIA 83 59 80 59 / 50 50 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AS WELL DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
AS WELL. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST ABOUT DONE AS THE FRONT IS JUST
OFF TO THE WEST AND IS ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.
STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.
CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.
ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY N WINDS TO 20KT AT KSAW WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFT 00Z AS HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED... RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER
SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING
TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND
SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE
BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON
RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW
MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
459 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.
CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.
ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER
SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING
TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND
SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE
BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON
RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW
MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
448 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.
CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.
ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.
CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.
ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.
THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-1.0IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.
UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.
THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.
TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.
TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.
THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-1.0IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.
UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.
THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.
SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN IT
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.
WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO KBRD BUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 45 34 43 / 0 20 80 90
INL 30 54 36 45 / 0 10 80 90
BRD 38 49 41 52 / 10 70 90 70
HYR 28 53 38 50 / 0 50 90 90
ASX 27 48 36 47 / 0 10 80 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
IMPRESSIVE 130M HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AHEAD OF IT...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. AHEAD OF ALL OF
THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING BOTH WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. AN FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING UP UNDER THE ACCAS FIELD OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE AREA JUST YET...THINK THESE WILL FADE AS
THEY APPROACH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL 850MB
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KTS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP ADVECT +8 TO +10C DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TSTM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD
NOW AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL BRING QUITE GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA WED MORNING AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WEST AND NORTH FROM 15-21Z.
EXPECT A LULL IN TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THU WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME WITH BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. PW`S BY EARLY EVENING DO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.50" SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WELL INTO IOWA BY THAT TIME.
LINGERING POST FRONTAL PCPN IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING.
BROAD/WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME
DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING
ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE
IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH -SHRA
ACTIVITY. DID NOT MENTION -TSRA IN TAFS FOR NOW...SINCE COVERAGE
MAY BE LIMITED. DECIDED TO ADD IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR TONIGHT
AS WINDS ALOFT BELOW 2000 FEET INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE OR MORE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER AT 07Z
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS
THE WINDS INCREASE AND IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO RAP
MODEL. SINCE MOS HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVERDUE THE MOISTURE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RAP AND ALLBLEND. THIS GIVES
RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITERIA FOR RFW THIS AFTERNOON AND PLAN
ON ADDRESSING VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER INDEX IN HWO FOR NOW.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE INTO THE AREA. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT HELPS
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL INDICATE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT HANG AROUND IN THE EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN
CLEAR RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. DRY WEATHER AFTER
THAT INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE COMES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
KANSAS. SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INDICATED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
THAT THE GFS CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM SOONER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EURO. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS
MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH -SHRA
ACTIVITY. DID NOT MENTION -TSRA IN TAFS FOR NOW...SINCE COVERAGE
MAY BE LIMITED. DECIDED TO ADD IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR TONIGHT
AS WINDS ALOFT BELOW 2000 FEET INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE OR MORE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.
WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.
THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.
THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HIPRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.
WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.
FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.
NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1225 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.
WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.
THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.
THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.
WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.
FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.
NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS
ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH IS SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A 300 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING
TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-8 PM. GIVEN A DEEP DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEARLY 7000 FEET
THICK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE.
FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER
AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD
REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU
PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A
TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND
MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER
THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION.
OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY
AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING
AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO
BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS
ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA.
I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A
NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A
DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD
TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 19Z...MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AFTER 18Z...BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL DEPICT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING AT
KFLO/KLBT AROUND 21Z AND KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND 00Z. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE INLAND TERMS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING ANY PCPN...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING
AND THEN NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENED
NEARSHORE BY THE ADDITION OF THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE. IN FACT AT 3 PM
WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT
TOPSAIL BEACH NC. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL VEER WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX
OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING MORE
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW
WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC
AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON
THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING
AND VEERING WINDS THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN
KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS UP A
DEGREE IN SPOTS WITH THIS EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. ALSO LOOKING AT
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE I AM IMPRESSED AT THE DEPICTION OF THE 500 MB
DISTURBANCE SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
THERE IS EVEN A A FAVORABLY POSITIONED 300 MB JET STREAK AT 300 MB
THAT MAY BE ABLE TO ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE VENTILATION. I JUST
EXPANDED THE REGION OF 30 POPS A LITTLE LARGER FOR THE EVENING...AND
WILL DIG DEEPER THROUGH THIS NEW SET OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A
LARGER EXPANSION OF SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES NEEDS TO BE MADE FOR THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVED OFF THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CAROLINAS ARE NOW IN A 500-MILE WIDE ZONE OF
WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND A COLD
FRONT NOW ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
12Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA SHOWS THE 06Z GFS SHOWED TOO MUCH MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE 06Z
NAM AND RUC WERE MUCH CLOSER TO THE OBSERVED VALUES ON THE CHS AND
MHX SOUNDINGS. A BEAUTIFUL ARRAY OF SCATTERED HIGH ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING VIRGA FLURRIES OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE AROUND 16000 FT AGL RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SEE OUR
NWS ILM FACEBOOK OR TWITTER PAGE FOR A PICTURE.
MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MODEL CAPE INCREASES TO 400-700 J/KG WITH MOST OF THAT
WAY UP IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER. THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...PRODUCED BY THE LACK OF ANY GULF OR ATLANTIC INFLOW...
WILL PROBABLY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. A DEEP DRY MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 7000 FEET
INLAND MEANS ANY CB CLOUD BASES ARE GOING TO BE WAY UP THERE...AND
ANY EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THAT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS PROBABLY AS CLOSE TO A CLASSIC WESTERN
UNITED STATES PATTERN AS YOU`LL SEE IN THE CAROLINAS.
BESIDES TWEAKING TIMING A LITTLE BASED ON THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR
RUNS...I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP DISTRIBUTION FOR
THIS EVENT: 30 POPS INLAND AND 20 AT THE COAST.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE
SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD
ONLY MAKE 15-20 MILES INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA GIVEN
THE BACKGROUND WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT COOL FRONT BUT THE RAPID DRYING SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD A PRETTY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DESPITE
SOME BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE N AND BRINGS A VERY WEAK SENSE OF CAA. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE CAPPED A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE AS COOL A NIGHT AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS DEVELOPING
PIEDMONT TROUGH SERVES TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IN THE STILL ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SATURDAY
LOOKS WARM AS WELL WITH LIGHT SWRLY FLOW AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE N. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY JUST FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO PRECLUDE ANY REAL RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
THEY DO INDICATE THAT ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS
TEMPER THE WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 18Z...BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL DEPICT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 21Z AND
KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND 00Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMS HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING ANY PCPN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS
AT TIMES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...PERHAPS PRECEDED BY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERY WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
FROM 9 PM UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A MODERATE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP ON TOP OF THE BACKGROUND
WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-12 KNOT WIND...WITH SPEEDS NEAR THE BEACHES
INCREASING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 15-17 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
SMALL INCREASE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS WE`LL
SIMPLY BE TRADING A DECREASING LONG-PERIOD SWELL FOR AN INCREASED
SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP AS TIME GOES ON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE/NWRLY FLOW WEDNESDAY FROM BOTH
EXPANSIVE STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS RIDGE AXIS FROM THIS HIGH POKES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AND SEAS RAPIDLY DROP OFF TO
JUST 2 FT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS PROXIMAL ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF JUST 2 FT WAVES AS
THE FLOW ACQUIRES A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SWRLY FLOW INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY BUT
A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
ADD PERHAPS A CATEGORY OR TWO OF WIND SPEED. EXPECTING NO HIGHER
THAN A 15-20 KT FCST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 2-4FT WAVES. THIS
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WASHES OUT ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN
RELAXING THE GRADIENT AND PERHAPS DROPPING A FOOT OFF THE HIGH END
OF THE SIG WAVE FCST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA. THE TSRA ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WHERE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ARND 500 J/KG.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL
HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ARND JOHNSTOWN AND RAP DATA SHOWS FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS BTWN 1-3KM...WHICH COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION SHOULD
PASS EAST OF THE CWA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.
ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.
AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.
LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.
DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.
LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS THEY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.
MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.
SAT-SUN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES.
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
DRY...WINDY AND COOLER DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
PRECEDING BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA DENOTED
BY A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BAND OF CLOUDS OFF VIS PICS. THIS PRE-
FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY AS IT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER MIDDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS BRIEF LOW LEVEL BACKING
FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EAST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AXIS OF 85H THETA-E SNEAKING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. HOWEVER CURRENT INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE AS WELL AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SEEN
OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS. LATEST HRRR AND THE LOCAL RNK-WRF REMAIN
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING AT LEAST SOME SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NW NC AFTER 18Z/2PM AS A FAINT IMPULSE
NOW OVER ERN TN SHEARS EAST. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS LIMITED PER CURRENT DEWPOINTS SO ONLY HOLDING ONTO LIKELY
POPS FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD WITH BEST QPF OVER THE SW
AND LEAST OVER THE NORTH. OTRW TRIMMING POPS BACK A BIT SOONER FAR
WEST WHILE ADJUSTING TIMING CENTRAL/EAST. LEFT TEMPS CLOSE TO
CURRENT VALUES EXCEPT LOWERING SOME NW PER CURRENT CLDNS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BUT THESE ARE SO FAR DRYING UP
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
IT. FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MODEST
WITH SREF MEMBERS AND OTHER MODELS SHOWING MEAN MLCAPES GENERALLY
IN 400-600 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS AT TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 7C. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS THE REGION WELL WITHIN A SEE TEXT OR MARGINAL CHANCE
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON NOTING THE WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN FAR EAST IF
EARLY SOLAR HEATING IS ABLE TO BEAT THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER FOR A
FEW HOURS AND GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. DRY AIR WHICH HAS BEEN
HOLDING TOUGH ALL NIGHT WILL BE FINALLY DISPLACED BY MODEST
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH FORECAST PWATS
BRIEFLY REACHING 1 INCH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER QPF ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION AND STEADY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY
EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. WINDS SHIFT INTO
WEST QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT AND SHARPLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW TO LOW 50S IN THE EAST BY
WED MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING
ALONG WITH A 40-50KT CROSS-BARRIER JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING...BECOMING CALM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5F COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
MAY DROP TO 40F WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO FROST EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH RANGES FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH A DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND FOR
MODERATING TEMPS.
THE PATTERN FRIDAY APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...WITH A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY AND EXITING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE RACING NORTH TO INTERCEPT THE FRONT IN THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
WHILE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS DELAYED UNTIL LATER SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AFTER SATURDAY THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS WITH THE GFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL KEEPING A SFC
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/21
ECMWF KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE GFS HAS SHOWN MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE LATEST GLOBAL
WIND OSCILLATION (GWO) PLOT FAVORS AN EASTERN U.S. TROF.
THEREFORE...NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND KEPT AREA FREE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TREND TOWARD THIS COOLER SOLUTION.
AS A SFC WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS THE
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST RAINFALL REMAINING SOUTH/WEST
OF THE TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS GOING
FOR A WHILE LONGER AS WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO ERODE THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
EVENTUAL JUMP OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 19Z/3PM. OTRW BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AT BLF/LWB WITH LOWERING CIGS
UNDER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIGHTER SHOWERS. BAND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE LYH-DAN CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO VFR WEATHER AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTTION IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS AND
SPOTTY -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE FAR WESTERN UPSLOPE SITES IN SE
WEST VA. PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN WITH STRONG
MIXING WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO AND OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MOVE EAST WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
RAINFALL RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT UP TO
AROUND 0.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ANOTHER
QUICK DROP IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY IF LESS WETTING RAINFALL IS
REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS WHERE GOOD DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...AND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE DUE TO BETTER TRANSPORT AND CONSISTENCY OF DIRECTION
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...JH/PC
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...JH/KK/PC
FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK
FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
442 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
An active and wet spring weather pattern can be expected across
the Inland Northwest. A cold front will bring a good chance of
rain today followed by breezy winds. Scattered showers will fall
on Wednesday. Another Pacific storm will bring rain on Thursday,
with more showery conditions Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: a wet, breezy system moves across the Inland
Northwest. This morning a cold front was pushing into the
Cascades. It`s parent upper trough was moving onto the coastline,
with a 100kt jet streak on its southeast flank. The incoming
front, the diffluence in the LFQ of the jet and embedded impulses
in the southwesterly flow will mean deep-layer lift. Working with
PWATs between 0.50 to 0.75 inches (~150 to 200% of normal) this
will bring rain and higher mountain snow to the region through
this afternoon, before the threat wanes for some tonight.
Snow levels are forecast to be between 4-5kft near the Cascades
to near 6-7kft toward ID this morning. This afternoon and evening
snow levels to between 3.5-5kft this afternoon, before falling to
between 2-3kft overnight into Wednesday morning. Initially this
will mean the potential for light snow accumulations over the
Cascade passes, around Sherman Pass as the day progresses and
toward the Idaho Passes late this evening and overnight. Some may
even reach down to the higher valleys overnight, but by then the
threat of significant precipitation will have ended.
Precisely timing the precipitation will be the trickier part. Yet
thus far the HRRR model has been doing a reasonable approximation
of the near-term precipitation evolution. Following that guidance
and a radar extrapolation, I`m expecting precipitation to continue
moving north through the northern Cascades and Okanogan Valley and
Highlands early this morning. A second area of precipitation is
expected to expand north-northeast across the Upper Columbia Basin
and Blues into Spokane/C`DA area early this morning, then into the
northeastern WA mountains and ID Panhandle toward 15Z (8 AM PDT).
Between late morning and early afternoon, the cold front and upper
trough start to push east of the Cascades, allowing precipitation
to decrease to more widely scattered to isolated showers near the
Cascades and western Basin. Then late this afternoon and early
evening, the front pushes east toward the ID/MT border and the
primary upper trough axis will be on its heels. This will allow
the precipitation focus to back against the Cascades and into the
northeast and eastern mountains, while activity elsewhere becomes
more showery and dissipates into the evening. Overnight a second
shortwave disturbance pushes into the Cascades, renewing the
precipitation threat here and over the western Basin. The best
threat will remain in the Cascades. Further east the shower threat
lingers near the ID/MT border, but otherwise drier weather is
expected until Wednesday morning.
There were some isolated lightning strikes late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning south of our region. Toward midday/afternoon,
models depict some pockets of marginally favorable CAPE/LI values
across northeast WA/ID. However it is nothing really comparable to
the convective instability that was associated with the lightning
I was seeing south of our region last night. So my confidence that
it will result in some thunder in our region is low. So I have
elected to leave thunder out of the forecast for now. This will be
monitored.
The other issue of the day will be winds. As the front and upper
trough sweep in a second low pressure begins to develop east of
the Divide. The resulting tightening gradient and mixing along the
front will allow winds to increase through the late morning and
early afternoon. As for the numbers: sustained winds of of 15-25
mph, with gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible, especially
between about midday to 7 or 8 pm. The gradient slackens some
going into this evening which should allow for a decline in the
overall winds. /J. Cote`
Wed through Sunday: As the cold upper trough moves NE into Wrn
Montana Wed morning, we`ll slowly transition from a highly
convective regime to a more stable pattern under short-wave
ridging. The valleys of the north Idaho Panhandle and NE Wa Wed
morning are still under a threat of snow showers. But most likely
any significant accumulations will be limited to the mountains
above about 3k ft. The wrn end of the trowal structure that wraps
around the upper low nearly stalls across the BC border with Idaho
well into Wed. Lingering rain/snow is the result for the
aforementioned valleys and mtns. A quick- moving short-wave trough
also tracks SE through SE Wa and NE Oregon Wed, increasing the
chances of pcpn as backing winds increase isentropic ascent.
Beginning Wed Nt, a more widespread stratiform pcpn event will
keep high chances of pcpn in the fcst for most zones... especially
Thurs as deep isentropic ascent over an advancing warm front, then
an occluding cold front, moves NE across the region. Warm
advection is sufficient to put much of SE Wa in the warm sector
south of the warm front. Due to the shearing/splitting of the
accompanying upper trough in response to a jet speed max digging
toward northern California Thurs Nt, the occluded front will stall
directly across Ern Wa and N Idaho. This slowly weakening boundary
won`t begin to move out of the area until Sat, leading to a very
cool and showery Fri and Sat. There is also a significant vort max
that moves north into Ern Wa Fri as well, enhancing the prolonged
pcpn threat. Temperatures will remain below normal for most areas,
a result of the numerous short-waves... then the stalling front
Fri through the weekend. bz
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Region looks to be in a transition
period as we finally start to exit the very active and wet period
for more of a dry and much calmer pattern. Beginning Sunday night,
the large scale trough dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska
appears to be held at bay by a building ridge from the south.
Mainly remnant moisture remains which is one reason low chance
POPs were kept through Monday. Also as the ridge continues to
grasp control of the pattern, the jet will pass right over the
region Monday bringing some better dynamics. Both the Euro and
GFS currently agree on the solution of the building ridge allowing
for some confidence. Any notable precip looks to remain on the
west side of the Cascades. Moving into Monday night and Tuesday
the ridge continues to control with lowering chances for precip as
time passes. Changes to the forecast include lowering POPs Monday
night and Tuesday while also lowering winds. As the ridge builds,
we should finally start to see temps climb back to near or
slightly above normal. With this forecast in the far extended
major shifts in the models are still possible, but for now this
period could be a nice break from the active, wet weather noted in
the previous week. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A cold front migrates in today. Precipitation will
continue to expand across the eastern TAF sites this morning and
remain likely at times through the early afternoon (21Z), before
turning showery and retreating toward the mountains between late
afternoon and evening as that cold front passes. It will be
accompanied by areas of MVFR/IFR cigs around GEG to COE and PUW
and local MVFR cigs are possible in LWS through afternoon. There
is a small threat for isolated embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon toward the NE WA/N ID mountains, but the risk at this
hour was too small to include in the official forecast.
Precipitation toward MWH/EAT will be more showery in nature, with
the threat waning this afternoon. Winds increase through the
afternoon, especially between 18-03Z. Wind gusts of 20 to 35 kts
are possible, before abating after dark. The overall shower threat
wanes later this evening, but another disturbance will renew at
least a slight shower threat toward the western Basin overnight.
/J. Cote`
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 34 50 40 53 39 / 90 20 60 20 90 60
Coeur d`Alene 52 33 50 39 52 38 / 90 50 60 20 90 70
Pullman 51 35 51 42 52 40 / 90 30 60 30 90 60
Lewiston 57 39 56 46 58 44 / 90 20 60 40 80 60
Colville 58 32 58 36 57 39 / 90 30 40 10 90 40
Sandpoint 54 33 49 37 51 40 / 90 50 60 20 90 60
Kellogg 52 32 46 37 49 38 / 100 90 70 40 80 60
Moses Lake 60 39 62 44 64 38 / 60 20 10 40 50 10
Wenatchee 59 42 60 45 62 41 / 50 20 20 50 50 10
Omak 58 34 61 39 60 37 / 70 20 20 20 90 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$