Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/20/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...INCREASED MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL END UP NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES...HOWEVER QUICKLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SINCE THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW CENTER RIGHT OVER SAN
DIEGO. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE...MAINLY ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC LOW STRUCTURE WITH A
BAROCLINIC LEAF STRETCHING FROM SONORA MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA. BROAD ASCENT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF ARIZONA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE NORTH OF
AN UPPER JET MAX NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AS WELL AS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. LATE THIS MORNING...A SMALL
CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PIMA COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND A KINK SEEN IN THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD. FOR THE MOST PART...ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE DUE TO DRY AIR BELOW 700MB AS SHOWN BY
AREA THE INVERTED V STRUCTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS NEAR 40MPH ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
THAT MOVED ACROSS PHOENIX AND ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST.
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER...COOLER MID LEVELS AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES REPRESENT A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH MAY
GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE
HI-RES HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOWED CELLS BLOSSOMING BY
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...BUT UPDATED
MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE. STILL THINKING 10-15 POPS IN
THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS A GOOD BET...BUT
WITH THE FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH CATEGORY.
TONIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD CORE ALOFT PULLS TO THE
EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PV ANOMALY
AS THE BULK OF THE ENTIRE WAVE LIFTS AND EJECTS OVER ARIZONA. DURING
THIS TRANSITION...RENEWED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASCENT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF UVV/SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH
INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. SFC HEATING UNDER
THE COLD CORE DURING THE DAY MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG AND LI/S AOB -2)...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONCEPTUALLY AND EVIDENTIALLY THROUGH MODEL
OUTPUT...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POINTS EAST OF
PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY REBUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS AOA 582DM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT AND TRENDS KEEP THE
VAST MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM CNTRL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE FORWARD SPEED AND ARRIVAL INTO THE WRN
CONUS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE DELAYED THE LOCAL ONSET OF
FROPA AND COOLING TO BEYOND TUESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST PROLONGED AND FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS.
WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE TEMPERED BACK INTO A 570-576DM RANGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...FEEL THE NET
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO KEEPING DAILY
READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
DAY 5-8 RANGE...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25KT...OCCASIONALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY
AOB 12KFT AND LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 10KFT AT TIMES. DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO VIRGA/ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT POSSIBLE NEAR
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL. OUTFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE BLOWING DUST
ACROSS LOWER DESERTS AND LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4SM...BUT NOT
PLACING ANY REDUCTIONS IN TAFS THIS TIME. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF OVER WESTERN TAF SITES KBLH/KIPL OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PRESENTING AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT. CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/MO
AVIATION...MEYERS/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1145 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH TONIGHT...ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH
SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE DESERTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL FALL TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...HOWEVER QUICKLY WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
THICK ENOUGH TO BE OPAQUE IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ON THE
WARM SIDE DUE TO THE CLOUDS...ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SITUATION TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL INVOLVE A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO WITH
COPIOUS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP TO THE WEST OF TUCSON AND OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT ALL OF THIS IS HIGH BASED AND LIKELY ONLY VIRGA.
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED OVERALL DRY AIR BELOW 400MB
AT TUCSON AND FLAGSTAFF...BUT EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ABOVE 600MB AT SAN
DIEGO. WARM AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND MOSTLY VIRGA ACROSS
THE DESERTS.
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER...COOLER MID LEVELS...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...AND THUS MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE RISE
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HI-RES HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW CELLS
BLOSSOMING BY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 PERCENT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE
121W LATITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SMALL PV ANOMALY CORE
TUCKED IN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE WAVE AROUND 25N. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A -16C TO -18C H5 COLD CORE REMAINS SITUATED IN
THE UPSTREAM NLY FLOW QUADRANT...WITH THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
WAVE STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MERIDIONAL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION. THIS CONFIGURATION MAY MEAN FURTHER DEEPENING AND FUTURE
NEGATIVE TILT EJECTION OF THE WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JET
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON WV IMAGERY PARTIALLY
TAPPING A NARROW PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND BECOMING
MANIFESTED IN A BAROCLINIC LEAF TYPE STRUCTURE (FURTHER EVIDENCE OF
THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM).
WITH MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND UVV IN THE 600-400MB LAYER ALREADY
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION TODAY. BOTH GOES AND AMSU TOTAL PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA
ORIGINATING WEST OF THE BAJA CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS EITHER ALOFT ABOVE THE H7 LAYER...OR VERY
SHALLOW BELOW THE H9 LAYER WITH NOTABLE DRY AIR TRAPPED BETWEEN. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS MOISTURE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUFFER LIMITING ANY INSTABILITY BASED AID TOWARDS DEEPER
VERTICAL MOTIONS. THUS...DESPITE THE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION...MUCH OF
THE HYDROMETEORS MAY BE LOST AS VIRGA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ANALYSIS
MAY BE ACROSS SERN CALIFORNIA WHERE THE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE HEATED SFC ALLOWING BETTER INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER HIGH TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THE
SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER WILL BE NATURALLY REDUCED BY ELEVATION.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE VIRGA AND VERTICAL
MOTIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD CORE ALOFT PULLS
TO THE EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY AS THE BULK OF THE ENTIRE WAVE LIFTS AND EJECTS OVER
ARIZONA. DURING THIS TRANSITION...RENEWED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
ASCENT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN
THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF UVV/SHOWERS ROTATING
NORTH INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. SFC HEATING
UNDER THE COLD CORE DURING THE DAY MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG AND LI/S AOB -2)...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONCEPTUALLY AND EVIDENTIALLY THROUGH MODEL
OUTPUT...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POINTS EAST OF
PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY REBUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS AOA 582DM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT AND TRENDS KEEP THE
VAST MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM CNTRL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE FORWARD SPEED AND ARRIVAL INTO THE WRN
CONUS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE DELAYED THE LOCAL ONSET OF
FROPA AND COOLING TO BEYOND TUESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST PROLONGED AND FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS.
WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE TEMPERED BACK INTO A 570-576DM RANGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...FEEL THE NET
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO KEEPING DAILY
READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
DAY 5-8 RANGE...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25KT...OCCASIONALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY
AOB 12KFT AND LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 10KFT AT TIMES. DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO VIRGA/ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT POSSIBLE NEAR
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL. OUTFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE BLOWING DUST
ACROSS LOWER DESERTS AND LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4SM...BUT NOT
PLACING ANY REDUCTIONS IN TAFS THIS TIME. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF OVER WESTERN TAF SITES KBLH/KIPL OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN WIND AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PRESENTING AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
938 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT QUICKER ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE RESULTING IN THICKER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TODAY IN HEAT OF THE
DAY AS PER LATEST HRRR PRODUCT. THUNDERSTORMS...OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THAT MATTER...COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUCH A SCENARIO TOMORROW WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY NEARER TO THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
PRODUCE OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL TODAY IN SE
AZ. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLD -TSRA
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION 18/22Z-19/02Z. SURFACE WIND BECOMING
SLY/SWLY 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
UP TO 35 KTS NEAR -SHRA/-TSRA. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ARE BETTER
ON SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE IT OUR FOR TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER LIGHT FOR VALLEY/DESERT LOCATIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY VIRGA OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURS.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SUNDAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY...THOUGH MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER SRN
AZ IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF SRN CA/NRN BAJA CST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WERE AROUND
0.40" WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 0.65" OVER SRN CA AND SRN SONORA
MEXICO WITH EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1" OFF BAJA SPUR. AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENING FROM TOP DOWN. SO
LOTS OF VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR VIRGA SHAFTS. HIGHS TODAY UNDER THE
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE 7-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ LATER
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.60" AND 0.85" WHICH IS ALMOST 2
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO AREAL POPS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE TROF AXIS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS....WITH SMALLER INCREASES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. I BASED THIS ON LATEST RUNS OF LOCAL WRF MODEL WHICH
HITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRETTY HARD WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL GUIDANCE.
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS TROF AXIS
PUSHES ON EAST. WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND ON
SUNDAY...COULD SEE HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING
MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS STRONG UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE
WEDNESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DROZD
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
853 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH TONIGHT...ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH
SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE DESERTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL FALL TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...HOWEVER QUICKLY WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
THICK ENOUGH TO BE OPAQUE IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ON THE
WARM SIDE DUE TO THE CLOUDS...ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SITUATION TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL INVOLVE A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO WITH
COPIOUS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP TO THE WEST OF TUCSON AND OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT ALL OF THIS IS HIGH BASED AND LIKELY ONLY VIRGA.
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED OVERALL DRY AIR BELOW 400MB
AT TUCSON AND FLAGSTAFF...BUT EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ABOVE 600MB AT SAN
DIEGO. WARM AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND MOSTLY VIRGA ACROSS
THE DESERTS.
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER...COOLER MID LEVELS...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...AND THUS MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE RISE
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HI-RES HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW CELLS
BLOSSOMING BY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 PERCENT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE
121W LATITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SMALL PV ANOMALY CORE
TUCKED IN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE WAVE AROUND 25N. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A -16C TO -18C H5 COLD CORE REMAINS SITUATED IN
THE UPSTREAM NLY FLOW QUADRANT...WITH THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
WAVE STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MERIDIONAL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION. THIS CONFIGURATION MAY MEAN FURTHER DEEPENING AND FUTURE
NEGATIVE TILT EJECTION OF THE WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JET
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON WV IMAGERY PARTIALLY
TAPPING A NARROW PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND BECOMING
MANIFESTED IN A BAROCLINIC LEAF TYPE STRUCTURE (FURTHER EVIDENCE OF
THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM).
WITH MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND UVV IN THE 600-400MB LAYER ALREADY
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION TODAY. BOTH GOES AND AMSU TOTAL PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA
ORIGINATING WEST OF THE BAJA CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS EITHER ALOFT ABOVE THE H7 LAYER...OR VERY
SHALLOW BELOW THE H9 LAYER WITH NOTABLE DRY AIR TRAPPED BETWEEN. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS MOISTURE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUFFER LIMITING ANY INSTABILITY BASED AID TOWARDS DEEPER
VERTICAL MOTIONS. THUS...DESPITE THE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION...MUCH OF
THE HYDROMETEORS MAY BE LOST AS VIRGA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ANALYSIS
MAY BE ACROSS SERN CALIFORNIA WHERE THE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE HEATED SFC ALLOWING BETTER INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER HIGH TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THE
SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER WILL BE NATURALLY REDUCED BY ELEVATION.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE VIRGA AND VERTICAL
MOTIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD CORE ALOFT PULLS
TO THE EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY AS THE BULK OF THE ENTIRE WAVE LIFTS AND EJECTS OVER
ARIZONA. DURING THIS TRANSITION...RENEWED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
ASCENT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN
THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF UVV/SHOWERS ROTATING
NORTH INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. SFC HEATING
UNDER THE COLD CORE DURING THE DAY MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG AND LI/S AOB -2)...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONCEPTUALLY AND EVIDENTIALLY THROUGH MODEL
OUTPUT...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POINTS EAST OF
PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY REBUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS AOA 582DM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT AND TRENDS KEEP THE
VAST MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM CNTRL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE FORWARD SPEED AND ARRIVAL INTO THE WRN
CONUS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE DELAYED THE LOCAL ONSET OF
FROPA AND COOLING TO BEYOND TUESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST PROLONGED AND FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS.
WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE TEMPERED BACK INTO A 570-576DM RANGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...FEEL THE NET
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO KEEPING DAILY
READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
DAY 5-8 RANGE...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AFTER 17Z...ALONG WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECKS
GENERALLY AOB 12KFT AND LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 10KFT AT TIMES. DRIER
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO VIRGA/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFTER 23Z NEAR KPHX/KIWA/KSDL. OUTFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
BLOWING DUST ACROSS LOWER DESERTS AND LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO
4SM...BUT NOT PLACING ANY REDUCTIONS IN TAFS THIS TIME. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF OVER WESTERN TAF SITES KBLH/KIPL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN WIND AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PRESENTING AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
912 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. TRENDED THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HIGH-RES RUNS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON OUR PIDDLY CONVECTION.
A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA JUNTA WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BOTH
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SHOWER ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY FROM
FREMONT COUNTY...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TRINIDAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY...FEEL THAT THESE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PROVIDES UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
PEAKS ABOVE 11 KFT MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE VERY HIGHEST OF MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
A FEW QUICK BURSTS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER SMALL CELLS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHED FROM NEAR TRINIDAD...NORTHEAST
TO LAMAR.
THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE BURN SCAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN RATES WILL BE
LIGHT AND DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE A FLOODING RISK AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
...WARM SPRING STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FILL AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND SRN CO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE VORT MAX ACROSS CEN NM AS IT
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CO AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS STALL THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH
MARGINAL DEW POINTS (STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) CAPES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG. SO MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL PROVIDE THE GREATER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...AIDED BY NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER THE LAGGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS REALLY HURT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...AND WE ARE MOSTLY SEEING ONLY SOME WEAK SHOWERS.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE BURN SCARS...AS LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND REALLY DECREASE RAINFALL
EFFICIENCIES. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING.
AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING AOA 10KFT...WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE BURN SCARS CLOSELY.
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE A
GOOD SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS
WELL...WITH FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL WAVER AROUND 10000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BOTH GFS
AND NAM SPREAD DEFORMATION BAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS. NAM12 REALLY
HITS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE HARD WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 10000 FEET.
TO SOME DEGREE...THIS IS LIKELY CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED AS NAM
KEEPS HITTING THE SOUTHERN SANGRES WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 09Z. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LIGHTER
WITH QPF. STILL IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THE HIGHER AREAS
COULD PICK UP AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOWFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS COVERAGE OF THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LIMITED IN THE GRIDS...EVEN ACROSS JUST THE
HIGHER ZONES ABOVE 11KFT.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...BOTH GFS AND NAM12 HAVE A DEFORMATION BAND/
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WHICH GENERATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW
POINTS STILL LOOK ON THE LOW SIDE...LIMITING INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH...AROUND/ABOVE 10KFT...SO LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN...AND IF A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS REALIZED...THE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS COULD BE A
LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY. BUT CAPES LOOK LIMITED...WHICH KEEPS THE
THREAT FOR PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL RATES ON THE BURN SCARS ON THE LOW
SIZE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDED ELEVATED POPS AT
TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING...GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 00Z
MONDAY WILL SHIFT INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...NEXT
NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
THEN...OVERALL DRIER PATTERN IN CONTINUATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A ZONAL TO UPPER RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF EXPERIENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY MAY ALSO
NOTE AT LEAST LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
FINALLY...AS TOUCHED UPON PREVIOUSLY...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH THE WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
SHOULD STAY GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10KFT
WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG
WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
SOME ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CLEARING
WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EASTWARD INTO KS ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE INCREASED PAST SUNSET AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND NAM MODELS HAVE DONE WELL IN
FORECASTING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE NORTHERN
SAN JUAN AND ELK MOUNTAINS. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MODEL SKEW-TS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ARE SHOWING A CLASSIC
`V` PATTERN WHICH SUGGESTS STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT FROM VIRGA
AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP.
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW WITH
SNOW LEVEL STARTING NEAR 8500 FT OVERNIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST AND
TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AS IT PASSES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CO
MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCH
BY NOON SATURDAY...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. WITH SO MUCH POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD PACK A GOOD PUNCH OF WATER. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO
NEAR 10000 FEET BY NOON SO THE WINTER SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH...THEREFORE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD RISE QUICKLY.
USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THROUGH THE BACKCOUNTRY OR TRAVELING NEAR
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG SMALL DRAINAGES. WE APPRECIATE ANY REPORTS
OF RISING WATER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND SATURDAY/S DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HELPING THIS CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK WAVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WHILE A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON A DOWNTURN
IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON
TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT. WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WARM...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY ACT TO
DAMPEN THE WINDS. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VIRGA OR LIGHT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
WHICH WOULD GREATLY BOOST WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER WED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR OUR
AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH.
THEN WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THU AND FRI.
AFTER WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BY 15 OR MORE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH DUE TO VIRGA AND DOWNDRAFT
REMNANTS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z
AND 16Z. PARTIAL MTN OBSCURATIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1038 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO COLORADO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS FOR THE
PLAINS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF DENVER AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR THE ACTIVITY. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY. ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BECOMING A MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA AND
WESTERLY AT KBJC. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY. THE NAM STILL INDICATING A SOUTH SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
WILL INDICATE MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGH
20Z...THEN TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TAF
TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...
SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
DENVER. POSSIBLE CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY. ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLY HOWEVER BY MID
AFTN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP. THE HRRR
ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WLY BY 20Z WHILE THE RAP KEEPS
THEM SSE THRU THE AFTN. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A SSW COMPONENT THRU
THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW AS IN PREVIOUS
TAF. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAMER
DIVIDE AND SRN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING HOWEVER WILL NOT HAVE THEM
AFFECTING THE AIRPORT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THICKER BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK FARTHER EAST LATE. SO JUST
EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR. ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE. THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU HAVE ERODED
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT KGFL FROM 06Z TO
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE....ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME. ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.
NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.
THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK. MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZE FRONT NOT APPARENT ON OUR 88D. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT
TO FORM AS IT SHOULD MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.
EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1009 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TODAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES. THE
LATEST RAP WHICH DID WELL YDA CORROBORATES CURRENT THINKING.
MAX TEMPS NOT CHANGED MUCH, IF ANYTHING WE BACK ENDED THEM
TOWARD THE END OF AFTERNOON.
ELY MARINE LAYER OF HIGH RH SATURATING JUST BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND 1800-2400 FT. NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THURSDAY MORNING WHEN A
RECORD LOW WAS SET AT ALLENTOWN PA.
TODAY...FCST BASIS IS MOSTLY NAM 3RLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP DURING THE
DAY AND THE HIGHER OF THE NCEP 3 HRLY MOS DEWPOINTS. 50 50 BLENDED
SFC SUSTAINED WINDS.
LOW CLOUDS RECEDE EWD AS THE BL WARMS BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD DURING MID AND LATE AFTN. E WIND GUST NEAR
15 MPH WITH THE WIND BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR
5 PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING
THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN 2P AND 5P VCNTY
PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...FCST BASIS IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLDER OF THE LOW TEMPS NEAR 10Z/SAT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH CFP SCT-BKN SC NEAR 4000
FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING TURN W
OR NW LATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
OUR AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WHEN THICKNESSES AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS COULD EASILY GUST 25-30 MPH, IF NOT HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...CIGS MOSTLY 1600-2400 FT. LIGHT EAST WIND.
AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
MIDDAY WITH A VFR CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD
COMPONENT) THAN THURSDAY AND A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WIND TENDS TO TURN SE-S.
TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS WITH CHC OF A SCT-BKN DECK NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD
10Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (CFP).
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS
SATURDAY.
TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS 7 FT AT 44009 AT 5 AM.
GFS WW4 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW BY A FOOT OR 2 ON THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SO RAISED THAT GUIDANCE THRU THIS FRIDAY EVENING.
SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS AND HAVE CONVERTED
THAT SCA HEADLINE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HERE AT THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.
DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WIND G 15 KT AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FT TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE
WIND TURN S TOWARD SUNSET THEN SHIFTS TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED, THOUGH
WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SEAS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. DESPITE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT...MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE GENERATING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM. WESTERLY FLOW
BECOMING N/NW OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW THIS CLOUD COVER
TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WIND FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WINDS BECOME CONSISTENTLY
NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
LOW OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM LAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA. THE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY OVER
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PICK UP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY AT THE COAST WHILE THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE LESS OVER THE WARMER AND DRIER INTERIOR LAND MASS.
THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND OFF OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND AROUND 70S
CANAVERAL TO VERO BEACH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST. HIGHS IN MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE AT THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER
ALLOWING MORE SUN AND DAYTIME HEATING TO TAKE PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUD DECK WITH CIGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 3KFT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KMCO MAY EVEN SEE LOWER CIGS TO
IFR/LIFR LATE IN THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN
MORE DRIER AIR WITH LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COAST
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MVFR
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE CAPE AND ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW INCREASING UP TO 20-25
KNOTS OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS IN THE GULF
TO STREAM TO 10 FEET OR MORE LATE SUNDAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR
CURRENT SCA WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATE TONIGHT AND EXPANDS FARTHER INLAND AND
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO FAST
WITH CURRENT TAF`S MAINTAINING MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.
AG
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.
BNB
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 63 77 67 82 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 79 69 82 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 67 79 68 82 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 64 80 65 82 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL/HAS COME ASHORE THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ROUGHLY BETWEEN HOMOSASSA SPRINGS AND SARASOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WILL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BRUSH NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...RUC AND HRRR 3KM...FORECAST SOUNDING
HODOGRAPHS AND WIND PROFILES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUGGEST STRONG
GUSTS VS. SIGNIFICANT ROTATION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGER SCALE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 19/00Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBY.
18/19Z-19/00Z...TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH G40KT MAINLY NORTH OF
KDAB-KISM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS VC KLEE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009/20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND 010/120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6 NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 4
TO 5 FOOT SEAS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY BECOMING
WEST NORTH TO SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MON-TUE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 71 58 76 / 60 30 20 10
MCO 68 77 57 80 / 60 30 20 10
MLB 70 80 59 79 / 60 30 20 10
VRB 71 81 58 77 / 60 30 10 10
LEE 66 76 56 79 / 60 30 20 10
SFB 68 77 56 78 / 60 30 20 10
ORL 68 76 58 78 / 60 30 20 10
FPR 72 80 59 78 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR CHANGES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MOBILE/FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THIS AND GENERALLY DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPING
...EVEN ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM MID/LATE THIS
EVENING (NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION) THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING (EAST COAST AREAS 2AM - DAYBREAK). DESPITE THE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
.STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
.DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.
EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 73 86 64 / 30 50 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 76 87 66 / 20 50 30 10
MIAMI 85 75 87 67 / 20 50 30 10
NAPLES 86 70 80 63 / 30 50 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.AVIATION...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY WELL
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT FOR IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KAPF WHERE IFR
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING THERE, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS.
DID INTRODUCE VCTS BY 00Z AT KAPF AND AT 03Z FOR THE EAST COAST
AS THIS IS WHEN ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO MORE
IN. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)
THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
BNB
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 86 64 82 / 50 40 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 87 65 81 / 50 40 10 10
MIAMI 74 86 66 81 / 50 40 10 10
NAPLES 69 79 63 81 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AORUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR ALREADY MOVED IN SOUTH...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH WITH EVERYONE MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
IFR AND SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY WIDESPREAD AS WELL. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY MORNING AS SHRA MOVES OUT BUT STAYING MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. E TO ENE WINDS GENERALLY 12-18KT
WITH GUSTS 10KT ABOVE THAT...AND AS IS TYPICAL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF EVENTS.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 80 20
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 100 100 60 20
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 80 80 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 90 100 50 20
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 100 40 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 100 100 70 20
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 100 50 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 60 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 100 50 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 100 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
.RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 60 10
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 100 100 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 70 70 60 10
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 80 80 40 10
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 100 30 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 100 100 60 10
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 100 30 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 70 70 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 100 30 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 100 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
..RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 60 10
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 90 80 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 70 80 60 10
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 70 70 40 10
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 70 30 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 80 80 60 10
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 90 30 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 60 70 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 80 30 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 90 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
543 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
...RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AND
WILL IMPACT CSG TERMINAL FIRST FOLLOWED BY MCN AND THEN THE
ATL AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN
SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE
AND KEEP IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
WITHING HEAVIER SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 60 10
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 90 80 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 70 80 60 10
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 70 70 40 10
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 70 30 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 80 80 60 10
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 90 30 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 60 70 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 80 30 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 90 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1025 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS QUICKER PACE OF CLEARING. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL AND HOPEFULLY
THE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE ANY DUST. NO WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH FOR SIGNS OF DUST PICKING
UP. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF WINDS AND PRECIP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE MORNING PER GUIDANCE...BUT
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUMPED INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDED. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DRIVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. HINSBERGER
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE W
COAST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD MTN TSTMS ON MON...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON TUE...SO ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE ANY SNOW. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF ID ON WED...
PRECIP WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BEYOND WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR AS THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DEPART FROM EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND
PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU. THE GFS STILL
HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
WILL SCALE BACK PRECIP ON THU AS A COMPROMISE. BOTH MODELS BRING A
NEW UPPER LOW TO THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MORN...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
FASTER. WILL START A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HEDGES
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORN WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT MAY FALL BRIEFLY TO MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
217 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF WINDS AND PRECIP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE MORNING PER GUIDANCE...BUT
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUMPED INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDED. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DRIVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. HINSBERGER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE W
COAST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD MTN TSTMS ON MON...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON TUE...SO ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE ANY SNOW. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF ID ON WED...
PRECIP WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BEYOND WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR AS THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DEPART FROM EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND
PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU. THE GFS STILL
HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
WILL SCALE BACK PRECIP ON THU AS A COMPROMISE. BOTH MODELS BRING A
NEW UPPER LOW TO THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MORN...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
FASTER. WILL START A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORN WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT MAY FALL BRIEFLY TO MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SCT OUT SOME OVR THE CNTRL BUT EXPECT THESE
TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING
OVER THE EAST...BUT BASED ON HIGHER TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS THINK RISK OF
ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS PRETTY LOW AND HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF FORECAST.
HAVE ADDED FOG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THOUGH AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING POSSIBLE FOG AT SAW TONIGHT. IF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AT SAW. SOME RAIN
AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT KIWD AND KCMX...BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH BRINGING THIS IN SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
752 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SCT OUT SOME OVR THE CNTRL BUT EXPECT THESE
TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING
OVER THE EAST...BUT BASED ON HIGHER TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS THINK RISK OF
ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS PRETTY LOW AND HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF FORECAST.
HAVE ADDED FOG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THOUGH AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS /STILL IN THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE AT KCMX/ GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT TODAY...FIRST AT KIWD THIS MORNING AND THEN AT KCMX AND
KSAW BY MIDDAY OR MAYBE AS LATE AS THIS AFTN. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM AT
KSAW IF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH. SOME RAIN AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT KIWD AND KCMX. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS ATTM. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
625 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SCT OUT SOME OVR THE CNTRL BUT EXPECT THESE
TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING
OVER THE EAST...BUT BASED ON HIGHER TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS THINK RISK OF
ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS PRETTY LOW AND HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF FORECAST.
HAVE ADDED FOG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THOUGH AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. &&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA BEHIND WEAKENING LOW PRES
WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AT KIWD...CLEARING LINE IS JUST
OFF TO THE W. WHILE CLOUDS MAY CLEAR OUT AT KIWD FOR A WHILE...A
GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD BRING A
RETURN OF BKN MVFR CIGS THAT ARE EVIDENT TO THE N. IF CLOUDS DO
CLEAR OUT AND DO NOT RETURN...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO FOG
ISSUES. AT KCMX...CIGS WILL RISE SLOWLY FROM IFR TO MVFR DURING THE
NIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT...THOUGH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY LEAD TO CIGS RISING ABOVE MVFR...OR CLOUDS
COULD SCATTER OUT. ALL TERMINALS WILL TREND TO VFR THIS MORNING AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA BEHIND WEAKENING LOW PRES
WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AT KIWD...CLEARING LINE IS JUST
OFF TO THE W. WHILE CLOUDS MAY CLEAR OUT AT KIWD FOR A WHILE...A
GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD BRING A
RETURN OF BKN MVFR CIGS THAT ARE EVIDENT TO THE N. IF CLOUDS DO
CLEAR OUT AND DO NOT RETURN...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO FOG
ISSUES. AT KCMX...CIGS WILL RISE SLOWLY FROM IFR TO MVFR DURING THE
NIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT...THOUGH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY LEAD TO CIGS RISING ABOVE MVFR...OR CLOUDS
COULD SCATTER OUT. ALL TERMINALS WILL TREND TO VFR THIS MORNING AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS OFF THE 19.12 GFS IDENTIFIED 5 WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THREE OF THESE WAVES WERE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ONE IN THE
CENTER WAS OVER MANITOBA...WHILE THE OTHER TWO WERE EQUIDISTANT
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE WITH THE REMAINING TWO WAVES WERE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRADDLING EITHER COAST...WITH ONE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA...AND THE OTHER OVER FLORIDA.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
OVER MANITOBA REVEALED A 1004MB SURFACE LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPS WAS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS
INSTABILITY HAD DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AS OF 19Z. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED
POPS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND CAUSE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM ALONG THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MIDWEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM OMAHA...THROUGH LA
CROSSE WI...TO GREEN BAY WI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE THUNDER AS WELL...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2 OF PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI. MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MORE THAN AN
INCH OF QPF LIKELY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A
GROWING CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND EC WOULD
SUGGEST HAVING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA. WE NOTICED TODAY THAT THE EC WAS A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HELD LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO EAU
CLAIRE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO LADYSMITH.
THE SHOWERS END EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED AT THIS
TIME ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GEM AND GFS WOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE LOW ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
EC WOULD HAVE THE LOW REACHING SOUTHERN MN. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 500 MB REACH OR EXCEED 50 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON ALL THREE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THURSDAY
HAPPENS TO BE OUR SEVERE WEATHER DRILL DAY.
THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS HOW FAST THIS STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE EC IS THE FASTEST AND WOULD HAVE
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GEM WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLS...IT WOULD OFFER
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
QUIET AVIATION PERIOD AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEAL
WITH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
THE CLOUD COVER PRODUCING THE SHOWERS IS ALL 5K FEET AND UP.
LATEST HOPWRF RUN AND SHOW BAND OF PRECIPITATION STALLING FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY.
KMSP...BAND OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE SOUTH. WITH OTHERWISE VFR
CIGS EXPECTED...THIS BAND IS OF HIGHEST CONCERN TO THE AIRFIELD.
LATEST HOPWRF AND HRRR SUGGEST PRECIP BAND LINGERING ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE SOUTH METRO...SO DID INCLUDE SOME SHRA...BUT IT IS
VERY BORDERLINE AND MAY END UP SETTING UP 20 TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF
MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS N 5 TO 10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSE AT 15G25KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A SMALL LINE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL FGEN INCREASING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THIS IS AN AREA OF
MINIMUM LCL-LFC RH AS DEPICTED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS. IR PICS AND
OBS INDICATE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND ENHANCED SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED SYNOPTIC
GRAVITY WAVE GENERATION AREA...ALSO SEEN IN EARLIER VISIBLE SAT
IMAGES. DRY LAYER BELOW CLOUD BASE SO ANY PRECIP IS EVAPORATING
CURRENTLY...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED IN WEAK RADAR ECHOES AS WELL.
BELIEVE THE MID LEVEL FGEN WILL TIGHTEN AS THE EJECTING UPPER PV
ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND THIS AREA OVERLAYS BETTER
MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA IN DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS INDICATED IN THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT HOWEVER. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM IT/S CURRENT
LOCATION IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
STRETCH FROM NEAR NORFOLK TO LEXINGTON TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALOFT INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING SUNDAY MORNING FROM
ROUGHLY THE ONEILL AREA...SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF
OUTPUT...BUT JUST DON/T FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING FORECAST DRY DUE TO
THE ABOVE FACTORS. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID
MORNING ONWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY AFTERNOON...DUE HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING...SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE SAME AREA.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP 0 TO 3KM LAPSE RATES...OVER
9C/KM...ARE NOTED INVOF THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE DECENT...ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM. AROUND 700J/KG OF
SURFACE BASE CAPE IS AVAILABLE...AND DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPE SUNDAY EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SRN CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA.
MOISTURE FOR THIS RAIN IS QUESTIONABLE THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS
GETTING SHUNTED EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS INTO
THE FCST AREA MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE PIVOTAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS SHOWN IS A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN TEXAS
TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY AND MOISTURE RETURNING UP THE CNTL AND
EVEN NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE
EAST OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES AIMED AT THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE COLO FRONT RANGE AND
LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTN WHICH COULD CARRY INTO THE FCST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 LATE TUESDAY WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS MONDAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
HIGHS INCREASE TO THE 70S TUESDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE WEST.
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE
FORCED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST WHERE THE MOISTURE WOULD BE
DEEPEST. THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES ON TRACK. SOME
SOLNS LIKE THE GFS AND GEF ARE FARTHER WEST WITH THE DRYLINE BUT WE
WONT FOCUS ON LOCATION AS MUCH AS EVOLUTION AND THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DEEP STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
WHICH INTERACTS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. MODEL TIMING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN VARIES WITH THE GFS AND
GEF FASTEST AND THE ECM AND GEM SLOWEST. THE FASTER MODELS GENERATE
MORE STORM COVERAGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND THEN COOL INTO
THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS
TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PULL SOME LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH SPILLS THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. THE ECM INCREASES RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THIS
HAS BEEN PUT ON HOLDING PENDING THE TIMING OF THAT SECOND SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEAST CO. SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW ALLOWING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER WEST-CENTRAL KS.
ATMOSPERE IN THIS AREA WEAK-MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTING GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ALOFT. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FGEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
EJECTING PV ANOMALY WHICH IS COMBINING WITH THE INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE TSRA ALONG THE FRONT IN WRN KS. FURTHER NORTH MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS PREVAILING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL MOVE NORTH ON THE
INCREASING LLJ TO FORM OVER C KS THIS EVENING. MODELS HOWEVER ARE
DIFFERENT IN HOW PRONOUNCED RESULTANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONCE
MID LEVEL FORCING PROGRESSES NORTH OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT KLBF TAF
SITE DRY FOR NOW AS LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL POSITION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS HIRES NMM HINTS AT CONVECTION MOVING CLOSE
BTWN 06-09Z. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT PIECE OF THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE LEFT KLBF CONTINUED DRY.
FURTHER NORTH FOR THE KVTN THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S ON
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
RETURN. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S READINGS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP HEIGHT
FIELDS WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING
MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ONLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED THERE AS LOW
HUMIDITIES EXIST BELOW MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. CONGESTUS CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AREA OF INCREASING
BUT STILL WEAK INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES
WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE SLOW
MOISTURE RETURN WAS HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM WERE ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVER TOP OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND
MESO SCALE MODELS (NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF) INDICATE CONVECTION
POPPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOMETIME IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD THIS
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WHEN STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CAPE
800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KT...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT BRIDGING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AFTERNOON
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS LIMITED. SO
AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES ARE SMALL...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN WILL RULE THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT PASSES
BY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT MID WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
UNDER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG THEN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT BETTER CHANCES COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WILL STILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS VERY NEAR KOFK AS OF 23Z AND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCT
SHRA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK DURING
THE TIME WHEN MODELS INDICATE THE LIFT IS STRONGEST. WE WILL LEAVE
THE KOMA/KLNK TAFS DRY ATTM AS MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FOCUS
NEAR THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONT ON SUN AND WE MAY SEE
ISO-SCT SHRA AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
540 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER
A WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY SHOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE COMPARED TO WHAT THE
GRIDS HAVE IN THEM FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NICE CUMULUS LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY AND
THERE WERE SOME RETURNS BEING PICKED UP BY THE WSR-88D OUT OF RENO.
GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO KEEP GOING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES, I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD IN SHOWERS FOR
THIS EVENING IN THOSE AREAS. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS OK FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY WIND BY 04Z SUNDAY AT 5-9 KTS. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON A LIGHT EAST WIND IS FAVORED. CUMULUS OVER THE SPRING
MTNS AND SHEEP RANGE WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ANY CLOUD
COVER RELEGATE TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 25 KFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 25 KFT TONIGHT WITH
A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY.
WINDS MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 6-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT DOWNVALLEY TONIGHT. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 6-12 KNOTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 137 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN ANCHORED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CUMULUS FIELD IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH RADAR DETECTING LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM MEADVIEW TO
KINGMAN. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS IT LOOKS LIKE NO SHOWERS WILL GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA CONTINUES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.
JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT IN FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTY FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST DEEPENS. WILL BE BREEZY MOST AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. RIDGETOP WINDS ALONG THE EAST
SIERRA SLOPES WILL REALLY START TO HOWL MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OF INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH FOR
TUESDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY (GUSTS OVER 40 MPH) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE OTHER HAND LOOK LESS AND
LESS PROMISING WITH JUST THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
HAVING ANY CHANCE AT ALL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE JUST DRY
AND WINDY.
SPEAKING OF DRY AND WINDY...THE COMBINED FORCES WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THANKS TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA BELOW 6000 FEET WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
ON WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. THEREAFTER MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF WINDY
CONDITIONS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...PIERCE/OUTER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1242 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR ALL
ZONES. MONDAY WILL BE WARM...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BARRELS
ACROSS NEVADA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...CLEANED UP THE AFTERNOON GRIDS AND FORECAST TO MATCH THE
LATEST TRENDS. DRIER AIR HAS INVADED NW NEVADA, TOOK OUT ALL POPS
HERE AND REDUCED SKY COVER SUBSTANTIALLY. HRRR SOLUTIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING SW OF EUREKA CURRENTLY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
NW NYE TO SE EUREKA AND NW WHITE PINE COUNTIES. EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHTNING TO BEGIN SOON IN THESE ZONES.
TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 330 AM /
SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION AS LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM
ZERO TO MINUS 2 OVER CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLAND AREAS. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA
UP TO AND INCLUDING THE RUBY MOUNTAIN RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON AS WARM MOIST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV WITH PLEASANT SPRING TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER EASTERN NV FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODELS DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GFS/GEM HOLDING ONTO SOME TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHEAST NV WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INHERITED
FORECAST FOLLOWED THE WETTER GFS/GEM AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AS
ECMWF IS THE ODD FELLOW OUT FOR NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
SYNC THURSDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM SHOWING RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NRN CA SPREADING SOME
MOISTURE OVER NRN NV. INHERITED FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE
WETTER ECMWF AND WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE
AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH.
AVIATION...STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KEKO/KELY TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE NIGHT OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND MT OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY. ONLY GOING WITH VCTS AND VCSH FOR
FMN...GUP...ABQ AND AEG. CATEGORICAL FOR SAF...LVS AND TCC THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY ARE ALL REPORTING RAIN. A BIT OF A
LULL POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION FIRING IN THE
AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL
AS THE NE WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REACH. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING
AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE
SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST CIRA BLENDED PWAT LOOP INDICATES A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE
DESERT SW UNDER STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TODAY. PCT OF NORMAL VALUES
IN THIS MOIST PLUME HAVE INCREASED TO BTWN 100-150 PCT OF NORMAL
WITH POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 200 PCT. SATELLITE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 12Z-18Z GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOIST
INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 16Z HRRR WAS VERY
BULLISH ON DEVELOPING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/STORMS OVER THE SW MTS
THIS EVENING THEN SLIDING NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD INTO SAN JUAN
COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER BULLSEYE FROM LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES INTO
THE SE PLAINS. TRENDED POPS UP FOR THESE AREAS BUT VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL BATTLE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
TOP DOWN EFFECTS TAKE OVER.
MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SO FAR THIS
SPRING SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIFTED INDICES MAY
AVERAGE -2 TO -3C WTIH CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. ALSO RAISED POP VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD IN LINE WITH HPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF GUIDANCE. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONGER
FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE SE PLAINS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MAX TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING AND DRY AIR
SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEFINITELY WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS FROM DRY STORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SINCE THE WINDS LOOK UGLY FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION THEREAFTER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING SLOW TO APPROACH STATE BUT LOOK FOR IT LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WETTING STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY ALTHOUGH DRIER. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR A MULTI DAY WIND EVENT STARTING TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY WHICH MEANS
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A DOOZY WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RH COMBINED WITH REALLY STRONG
WIND AREAWIDE. POST COLD FRONTAL CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY
WITH RESIDUAL STRONG WIND. STRONG WIND/LOW RH ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF THURSDAY.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE
HIGHER CIRRUS HAS KEPT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING BUT
THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY DRIER WILL IMPACT THE WEST. CANT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES ADDITIONAL JUICE
WILL FUEL WETTER SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT THE BEST
RESULTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 STAND TO BENEFIT THE MOST IN TERMS OF SOME WETTING
MOISTURE OR GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL BE
FAIRLY JUICY MOST OF THE DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH ON SATURDAY. STORM MOTION DOEST APPEAR TO BE
ALL THAT FAST ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST/EAST QUICKER THAN THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY.
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME DRYING FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE INTO SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
PERHAPS SOME COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL WAVE INDUCED LIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY
WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST...SPECIFICALLY NORTHEAST.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR SOME RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. DRIER AIR WOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS. PERHAPS SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION BUT A
SIMILAR IDEA STANDS. INCREASES IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY.
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRADITIONAL OR
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE
QUITE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE HERKY JERKY OR WIDE GUST SPREAD LIKE
WINDS ON TUESDAY. POST COLD FRONTAL STRONG WINDS WOULD REMAIN ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAINES AND NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MIGHT BE A LIMITER IN TERMS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IN THE COMING DAYS...CAN SEE A WATCH BEING
ISSUED FOR THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AN AREAWIDE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS MULTI DAY EVENT ALTHOUGH
HAINES/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL MOST LIKELY FLUCTUATE SOME DUE TO
SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER CAVEAT IN TERMS OF
TUESDAY AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PRECEDING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH 19Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN QUICKLY AND ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. DIDNT USE PREVAILING OR TEMPO AT THIS TIME BUT
LOOK FOR IT IN LATER SHIFTS. FMN/GUP/ROW WOULD BE IMPACTED MOST BY
LOWERING CIGS AND PRECIP. SAF/AEG/ABQ COULD GET STRONG WIND
IMPACTS WITH THE DVLPING SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MESSY WEATHER DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 48 68 41 72 / 60 30 20 10
DULCE........................... 42 63 32 67 / 60 40 30 20
CUBA............................ 42 64 36 67 / 50 40 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 41 65 35 70 / 30 40 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 38 58 32 64 / 30 50 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 41 62 35 68 / 40 40 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 41 58 38 66 / 30 50 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 43 69 36 75 / 20 50 40 10
CHAMA........................... 37 58 33 63 / 60 50 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 62 44 65 / 30 40 30 20
PECOS........................... 44 61 39 64 / 20 40 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 65 34 66 / 20 40 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 34 52 31 54 / 30 50 40 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 57 33 59 / 20 50 40 30
TAOS............................ 41 64 34 67 / 20 40 30 20
MORA............................ 43 63 38 62 / 20 40 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 46 69 38 72 / 30 30 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 45 62 40 63 / 40 40 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 67 39 70 / 30 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 68 47 71 / 40 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 70 48 72 / 30 40 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 71 44 74 / 30 40 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 72 47 75 / 30 40 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 73 44 76 / 20 40 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 71 47 74 / 40 40 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 52 71 47 75 / 20 60 40 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 66 44 69 / 40 50 40 20
TIJERAS......................... 48 67 45 68 / 40 40 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 65 38 68 / 30 50 40 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 63 41 65 / 30 40 30 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 66 44 68 / 20 50 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 69 45 71 / 20 50 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 46 63 41 65 / 30 60 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 46 67 42 64 / 10 30 30 40
RATON........................... 46 71 40 69 / 10 30 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 49 71 43 70 / 10 30 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 68 42 67 / 10 40 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 52 75 50 70 / 5 20 30 30
ROY............................. 50 71 47 69 / 5 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 54 76 51 75 / 5 30 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 73 49 74 / 10 30 30 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 80 52 76 / 0 40 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 52 74 48 76 / 5 40 40 20
PORTALES........................ 53 75 49 77 / 5 40 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 74 50 77 / 10 40 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 56 76 50 81 / 30 50 40 10
PICACHO......................... 52 70 47 74 / 30 60 50 10
ELK............................. 49 63 45 69 / 40 70 50 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH 19Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN QUICKLY AND ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. DIDNT USE PREVAILING OR TEMPO AT THIS TIME BUT
LOOK FOR IT IN LATER SHIFTS. FMN/GUP/ROW WOULD BE IMPACTED MOST BY
LOWERING CIGS AND PRECIP. SAF/AEG/ABQ COULD GET STRONG WIND
IMPACTS WITH THE DVLPING SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MESSY WEATHER DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1118 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SW BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS INDICATE COVERAGE OF
-SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTH. LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MTS. MODELS SHOW STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NUDGED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER UP CONSIDERABLY.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...607 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN SE AND
EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SURGING N/NE THROUGH THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND FILTERING INTO CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST. PATCHY FOG AND SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
BEING REPORTED IN CLOVIS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...600 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ERODING BY 15Z TO 18Z... WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE PECOS VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING KROW...KCVN
AND KTCC. HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM WEST TO CENTRAL LOCALES IN
THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AREAWIDE...
RELAXING SOME OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
&&
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES EASTWARD
TODAY...CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTING EAST OUT OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...RESULTING IN
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG WINDS TO ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF THE
LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH THE DEWPOINT AT TUSCON INCREASING FROM 17F TO 30F
OVER A COUPLE OF HOURS TIME. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE TX/NM BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS ALREADY
INTO THE LOW 40S OVER FAR SERN NEW MEXICO.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
A BIT...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE GILA THIS MORNING AND DECREASING
CHANCES AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT DRY THUNDERSTORM WORDING
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WITH
EITHER AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN CHECK ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 65 KT JET MAX MOVES UP
INTO WRN NM AND LEFT FRONT QUAD LIFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM GENERATE.
TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL A BIT AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...LIKELY THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM
MID-DAY SUNDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
FAR NE NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BRING DRIER AIR INTO
WESTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ENDING SHOWER CHANCES THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATING
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THIS AIRMASS AND ENOUGH ELY
UPSLOPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS BUT SUSPECT THE
CONVECTION IS OVERDONE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN JEMEZ AND TUSAS
MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LIKELY TO WIN OUT.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
STRONG WINDS THE LIKELY RESULT EACH AFTERNOON. GFS...HOWEVER NOT
ALL THAT DRY WITH THE FLOW TUESDAY...ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CRATER
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS COMPLETELY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE
LIKELY RESULT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTER PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO BE LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN...CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH FAIR RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VALUES NORTH
AND EAST.
MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ON TAP TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVELS TO ALSO SEE
INCREASES IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MID LEVELS A LITTLE
SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP. UPPER LOW TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...INITIALLY
FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT INSTABILITY WEST BUT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST... SUPPORTING A THREAT OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. RH RECOVERIES TO IMPROVE ACROSS
THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO LOCALLY EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH SUCH THAT THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED WETTING
RAIN EXPECTED MOST ZONES SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING BUT DECREASED
CHANCES SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH THE FOCUS
ON THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER AND DRIER BUT
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
STILL FOCUSING ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH WIND AND THE DRY SLOT AS THE BIG STORY FOR
NEW MEXICO. HAINES INCREASES TO 5 TO 6 ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY 6 ON
WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WESTERN ZONES...CENTRAL VALLEY AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS NEXT POTENTIAL FIRE GROWTH PATTERN.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1118 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SW BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS INDICATE COVERAGE OF
-SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTH. LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MTS. MODELS SHOW STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NUDGED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER UP CONSIDERABLY.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...607 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN SE AND
EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SURGING N/NE THROUGH THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND FILTERING INTO CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST. PATCHY FOG AND SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
BEING REPORTED IN CLOVIS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...600 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ERODING BY 15Z TO 18Z... WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE PECOS VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING KROW...KCVN
AND KTCC. HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM WEST TO CENTRAL LOCALES IN
THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AREAWIDE...
RELAXING SOME OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
&&
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES EASTWARD
TODAY...CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTING EAST OUT OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...RESULTING IN
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG WINDS TO ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF THE
LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH THE DEWPOINT AT TUSCON INCREASING FROM 17F TO 30F
OVER A COUPLE OF HOURS TIME. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE TX/NM BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS ALREADY
INTO THE LOW 40S OVER FAR SERN NEW MEXICO.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
A BIT...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE GILA THIS MORNING AND DECREASING
CHANCES AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT DRY THUNDERSTORM WORDING
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WITH
EITHER AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN CHECK ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 65 KT JET MAX MOVES UP
INTO WRN NM AND LEFT FRONT QUAD LIFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM GENERATE.
TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL A BIT AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...LIKELY THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM
MID-DAY SUNDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
FAR NE NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BRING DRIER AIR INTO
WESTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ENDING SHOWER CHANCES THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATING
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THIS AIRMASS AND ENOUGH ELY
UPSLOPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS BUT SUSPECT THE
CONVECTION IS OVERDONE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN JEMEZ AND TUSAS
MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LIKELY TO WIN OUT.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
STRONG WINDS THE LIKELY RESULT EACH AFTERNOON. GFS...HOWEVER NOT
ALL THAT DRY WITH THE FLOW TUESDAY...ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CRATER
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS COMPLETELY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE
LIKELY RESULT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTER PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO BE LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN...CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH FAIR RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VALUES NORTH
AND EAST.
MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ON TAP TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVELS TO ALSO SEE
INCREASES IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MID LEVELS A LITTLE
SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP. UPPER LOW TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...INITIALLY
FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT INSTABILITY WEST BUT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST... SUPPORTING A THREAT OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. RH RECOVERIES TO IMPROVE ACROSS
THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO LOCALLY EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH SUCH THAT THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED WETTING
RAIN EXPECTED MOST ZONES SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING BUT DECREASED
CHANCES SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH THE FOCUS
ON THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER AND DRIER BUT
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
STILL FOCUSING ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH WIND AND THE DRY SLOT AS THE BIG STORY FOR
NEW MEXICO. HAINES INCREASES TO 5 TO 6 ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY 6 ON
WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WESTERN ZONES...CENTRAL VALLEY AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS NEXT POTENTIAL FIRE GROWTH PATTERN.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM OVER THE FAR WEST
PORTION OF THE ADVISORY...INCLUDING BISMARCK AND MINOT.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY
925-850MB WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MIXING LAYER REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE MID TO
LATE EVENING HOURS. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOES THROUGH 10 PM BUT
WILL EXTEND THIS NORTH THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND ADD
ANOTHER LAYER COUNTIES TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WILL SEND PRODUCTS OUT BY 6 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOLID
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS BEING MET OVER THE ADVISED AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND HEADLINE FOR THIS UPDATE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREFORE...REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FROM THE APPROPRIATE
ZONES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE GFS/GEM/NAM KEEP THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY (PROXIMATE
TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY) WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND
EXTEND THEM SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A MILD EASTER FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EASTER SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC COAST
TUESDAY...PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE CONVECTION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR THE 12 UTC RUN TODAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AND PROPAGATING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPES...AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE AND
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIGHT
SHOWERS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT KISN-KMOT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...BRIEF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE I-94 TERMINAL AERODROMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THE
LOWEST MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE
GFDI HAS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A LOW-END
"VERY HIGH" FIRE DANGER SATURDAY. FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003-011-021-035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
133 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE TO POPS AND
TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR
IMAGERY...AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. POPULATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DEEPENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A VORT LOBE
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN AROUND
06-10 UTC. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY. UPDATED
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DID
BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HAVE
DISSIPATED WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRISK SE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR..INDICATING A 500MB SHEARED VORTICITY AXIS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH) IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO
MONTANA WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH A SHOWALTER
INDEX NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THE MOST THURSDAY...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS CLOSING OFF A POTENT LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE 12 UTC
ECMWF ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE SIGNIFICANT QPF IS
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-30 MPH
AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST FRIDAY
DAYTIME SPREADING EAST FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 10Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 10Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 02Z MONDAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS
EARLY AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. KSPS AND
KLAW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA 12-18Z. TSRA POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST AT THESE SITES 21-01Z...SO WILL KEEP VCTS.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.
ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.
WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/17/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM BACK POPS THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY/A STRAY STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM 4 AM THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A
FEW STORMS MINGLED IN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBS SHOW FAIRLY MILD
TEMPS...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ATOP SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW ONLY MODEST COOLING INTO THE MORNING...THUS HAVE INCREASED
MORNING LOWS. ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND
WINDS TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA/-TSRA TIMING AND
LOCATIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z...
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-
KDFW. THESE LOCATIONS WEST OF KPNC-KOKC-KDFW ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER 12Z.
ONGOING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KAMA AND WEST OF KCDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SHRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 04Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 09Z. KOKC MAY BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY
AS 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 19Z. KSPS AND KLAW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY -SHRA AS EARLY AS 08Z...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO IMPACT BODY OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. SOME ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS EXIT REGION OF STRONGER JET
SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. ATTM...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION CAN BE REALIZED. WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT EAST/SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
FROPA.
WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ADVERTISED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. BETTER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR HIGHER WEDNESDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ECM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN GFS BUT BOTH POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WESTERN OK BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER REGION WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DAY POSSIBLE THURSDAY IF WINDS END UP
BEING STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 59 75 59 / 0 10 60 60
HOBART OK 78 57 74 57 / 10 30 50 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 59 75 60 / 10 30 50 50
GAGE OK 79 57 77 56 / 10 30 40 40
PONCA CITY OK 80 59 79 59 / 0 0 50 60
DURANT OK 77 58 79 61 / 0 10 30 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
FAST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY RAPID
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NW THIS
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MT BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND
TO NEAR LAKE WG BY 12Z SAT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN IR AND WV
SATELLITE PICS WITH COLDER AND MORE CONTINUOUS HIGH CLOUDS TO ITS
WEST AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR CWA.
AS TROF APPROACHES...BEST SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOWN BY 700MB Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPLITS INTO TWO AREAS. THE STRONGER MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF ACROSS ND...WHILE A SECOND AREA
DVLPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ELONGATES OVER THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER CO...NORTHERN NE...AND EASTERN SD BY 12Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS ALOFT IS MODEST
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NE WY AND WESTERN SD...ONGOING THIS AFTN.
ANALYSES OF SFC GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY CHANGES REVEAL INCREASING
VALUES OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTN. THESE CHANGES SHOULD SUPPORT
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. 18Z
NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL GIVE SUPPORT TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DETAILS OF STORM LOCATION/INTENSITY HAVE BEEN
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN OF THE HRRR.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500 TO 750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER WRN SD LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVG. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT...BUT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH LCLS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WHOLE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NORTH DAKOTA AND SWINGS
A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW RH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE TIME WILL
LEAVE THE SUN AFTN FORECAST DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CREATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE MAIN UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF CWA...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY LIQUID EVENT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SLUSHY
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND SYSTEM IN
QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
COMING OUT OF EITHER BAND OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR
FAR NORTHEAST CWA AROUND KMML/KTKC WHERE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE
DIPPED TO AROUND 5KFT...BUT THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE START OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS HAVE REMOVED OUR LOW POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
BEGINNING OF WELL-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND. EXPECT A STRONG MIXING
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY.
RAP HAS TENDED TO HANDLE THE STRONG MIXING WELL IN RECENT WARM DAYS
AND OUR GOING FORECAST WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AS WELL AS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
WITH THE STRONG MIXING...MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER FOR
PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS BUMPING SPEEDS UP A BIT
ACROSS MY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF OUR WEST PUSHING INTO
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO ABERDEEN...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BON HOMME TO KINGSBURY COUNTY. STRONG
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AREAS.
WINDS IN MY WEST WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RED FLAG...HOWEVER MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE HOLDING ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RESULT. DAY SHIFT
WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...AS WEAKER ADVECTION OR
GREATER MIX-DOWN OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT COULD PUSH THESE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER...WHICH IS THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM A WIND STANDPOINT.
FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/MID LEVEL WAVE...ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK LIFT FROM TAIL END
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY NAM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.
CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700MB...SO NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP REACH THE GROUND...AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY SPOTTY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 IN MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEPT ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT OUT
OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP
INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 40 OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
EXIST...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
A MORE LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE CLOUDY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THE SHORTWAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY...LEADING TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTO THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP BY MIDWEEK AS A
WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT
WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD BORDERED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO ABOUT 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 29 WITH THE WIND REMAINING GUSTY TO AROUND 30 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BUT THE CHANCES AT ANY ONE POINT ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE WATCHING
HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHICH WOULD KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...IF THESE DEW POINTS
DO NOT RISE AS EXPECTED...THE LOWER BRULE AREA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HUMIDITY LEVELS REACH CRITICAL
VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-039-050-
052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
COMING OUT OF EITHER BAND OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR
FAR NORTHEAST CWA AROUND KMML/KTKC WHERE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE
DIPPED TO AROUND 5KFT...BUT THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE START OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS HAVE REMOVED OUR LOW POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
BEGINNING OF WELL-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND. EXPECT A STRONG MIXING
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY.
RAP HAS TENDED TO HANDLE THE STRONG MIXING WELL IN RECENT WARM DAYS
AND OUR GOING FORECAST WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AS WELL AS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
WITH THE STRONG MIXING...MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER FOR
PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS BUMPING SPEEDS UP A BIT
ACROSS MY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF OUR WEST PUSHING INTO
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO ABERDEEN...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BON HOMME TO KINGSBURY COUNTY. STRONG
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AREAS.
WINDS IN MY WEST WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RED FLAG...HOWEVER MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE HOLDING ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RESULT. DAY SHIFT
WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...AS WEAKER ADVECTION OR
GREATER MIX-DOWN OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT COULD PUSH THESE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER...WHICH IS THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM A WIND STANDPOINT.
FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/MID LEVEL WAVE...ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK LIFT FROM TAIL END
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY NAM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.
CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700MB...SO NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP REACH THE GROUND...AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY SPOTTY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 IN MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEPT ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT OUT
OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP
INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 40 OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
EXIST...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
A MORE LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE CLOUDY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THE SHORTWAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY...LEADING TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTO THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP BY MIDWEEK AS A
WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT
WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD BORDERED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST-SOUTH WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT EXPECTED WEST OF
HIGHWAY 81 AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS IN 30-37KT RANGE IN THESE AREAS
AFTER 18Z...SPREADING INTO I-29 CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH OF KFSD BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNSET...THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50-60KT ABOVE ROUGHLY 1500FT.
WHILE WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE VERY STRONG TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LITTLE VARIANCE IN DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KFT...SO OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
ASIDE FROM THE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COOL FRONT APPROACHING KHON AREA AFTER 19/06Z WITH
SOME INDICATION OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT
LIMITED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE
TAF. GREATER CONCERN FROM ANY VIRGA/SPOTTY SHOWER WOULD BE MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE WATCHING
HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHICH WOULD KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...IF THESE DEW POINTS
DO NOT RISE AS EXPECTED...THE LOWER BRULE AREA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HUMIDITY LEVELS REACH CRITICAL
VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
COMING OUT OF EITHER BAND OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR
FAR NORTHEAST CWA AROUND KMML/KTKC WHERE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE
DIPPED TO AROUND 5KFT...BUT THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE START OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS HAVE REMOVED OUR LOW POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
BEGINNING OF WELL-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND. EXPECT A STRONG MIXING
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY.
RAP HAS TENDED TO HANDLE THE STRONG MIXING WELL IN RECENT WARM DAYS
AND OUR GOING FORECAST WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AS WELL AS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
WITH THE STRONG MIXING...MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER FOR
PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS BUMPING SPEEDS UP A BIT
ACROSS MY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF OUR WEST PUSHING INTO
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO ABERDEEN...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BON HOMME TO KINGSBURY COUNTY. STRONG
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AREAS.
WINDS IN MY WEST WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RED FLAG...HOWEVER MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE HOLDING ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RESULT. DAY SHIFT
WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...AS WEAKER ADVECTION OR
GREATER MIX-DOWN OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT COULD PUSH THESE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER...WHICH IS THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM A WIND STANDPOINT.
FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/MID LEVEL WAVE...ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK LIFT FROM TAIL END
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY NAM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.
CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700MB...SO NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP REACH THE GROUND...AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY SPOTTY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 IN MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEPT ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT OUT
OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP
INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 40 OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
EXIST...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
A MORE LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE CLOUDY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THE SHORTWAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY...LEADING TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTO THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP BY MIDWEEK AS A
WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT
WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD BORDERED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY STRONG. THEY WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND FREQUENTLY GUST FROM AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE WATCHING
HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHICH WOULD KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...IF THESE DEW POINTS
DO NOT RISE AS EXPECTED...THE LOWER BRULE AREA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HUMIDITY LEVELS REACH CRITICAL
VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1036 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN OVER AL/GA THIS MORNING IS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE
MID-UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MS REGION. THE RUC
AND HRRR PRECIP DEPICTIONS BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR SW NC
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST BASED
ON OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. WILL ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY...BUT STAY IN
THE CHANCE RAIN THROUGH 00Z...THEN RISE TO LIKELY IN SW NC AFTER
00Z. GIVEN THE OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK AND THE LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE
UPDATE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.
TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADDRESS RECENT TRENDS. MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS
TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 18Z GFS AND 00Z
TTU-WRF NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THAT
HAS COME OUT OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND INTO SRN HALF OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME IF
MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...AND THE RAIN SHOULD STAY MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED PRE-06Z POPS
FOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND ADJUSTED 06Z-12Z POPS TO INCREASE KEEPING
SERN ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
AVIATION...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF KCDS THE FIRST TWO
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE EVENING AS
THE NEXT WAVE IS SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTS OF
SRN NM TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR TO THE NE
THIS CONVECTION WILL GO. SOME THREAT TO MAKE IT TO THE FCST AREA
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO INSERT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES SUNDAY AFTN FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB
AND WILL RUN WITH A PROB30 THERE FOR NOW. FINALLY...POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 74 49 77 49 / 40 20 10 10 0
TULIA 54 75 52 78 51 / 30 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 54 75 54 80 52 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 54 76 54 80 52 / 60 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 56 77 55 81 53 / 60 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 55 78 55 79 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 78 54 80 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 58 80 58 82 55 / 30 40 30 10 10
SPUR 57 79 59 84 55 / 50 40 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 58 79 60 85 56 / 50 40 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF KCDS THE FIRST TWO
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE EVENING AS
THE NEXT WAVE IS SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTS OF
SRN NM TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR TO THE NE
THIS CONVECTION WILL GO. SOME THREAT TO MAKE IT TO THE FCST AREA
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO INSERT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES SUNDAY AFTN FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB
AND WILL RUN WITH A PROB30 THERE FOR NOW. FINALLY...POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 74 49 77 49 / 60 20 10 10 0
TULIA 54 75 52 78 51 / 30 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 54 75 54 80 52 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 54 76 54 80 52 / 60 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 56 77 55 81 53 / 60 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 55 78 55 79 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 78 54 80 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 58 80 58 82 55 / 30 40 30 10 10
SPUR 57 79 59 84 55 / 30 40 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 58 79 60 85 56 / 30 40 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. TRENDED THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HIGH-RES RUNS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON OUR PIDDLY CONVECTION.
A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA JUNTA WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BOTH
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SHOWER ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY FROM
FREMONT COUNTY...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TRINIDAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY...FEEL THAT THESE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PROVIDES UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
PEAKS ABOVE 11 KFT MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE VERY HIGHEST OF MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
A FEW QUICK BURSTS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER SMALL CELLS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHED FROM NEAR TRINIDAD...NORTHEAST
TO LAMAR.
THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE BURN SCAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN RATES WILL BE
LIGHT AND DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE A FLOODING RISK AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
...WARM SPRING STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FILL AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND SRN CO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE VORT MAX ACROSS CEN NM AS IT
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CO AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS STALL THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH
MARGINAL DEW POINTS (STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) CAPES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG. SO MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL PROVIDE THE GREATER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...AIDED BY NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER THE LAGGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS REALLY HURT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...AND WE ARE MOSTLY SEEING ONLY SOME WEAK SHOWERS.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE BURN SCARS...AS LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND REALLY DECREASE RAINFALL
EFFICIENCIES. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING.
AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING AOA 10KFT...WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE BURN SCARS CLOSELY.
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE A
GOOD SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS
WELL...WITH FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL WAVER AROUND 10000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BOTH GFS
AND NAM SPREAD DEFORMATION BAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS. NAM12 REALLY
HITS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE HARD WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 10000 FEET.
TO SOME DEGREE...THIS IS LIKELY CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED AS NAM
KEEPS HITTING THE SOUTHERN SANGRES WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 09Z. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LIGHTER
WITH QPF. STILL IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THE HIGHER AREAS
COULD PICK UP AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOWFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS COVERAGE OF THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LIMITED IN THE GRIDS...EVEN ACROSS JUST THE
HIGHER ZONES ABOVE 11KFT.
BY TOMORROW MORNING...BOTH GFS AND NAM12 HAVE A DEFORMATION BAND/
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WHICH GENERATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW
POINTS STILL LOOK ON THE LOW SIDE...LIMITING INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH...AROUND/ABOVE 10KFT...SO LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN...AND IF A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS REALIZED...THE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS COULD BE A
LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY. BUT CAPES LOOK LIMITED...WHICH KEEPS THE
THREAT FOR PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL RATES ON THE BURN SCARS ON THE LOW
SIZE. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDED ELEVATED POPS AT
TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING...GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 00Z
MONDAY WILL SHIFT INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...NEXT
NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
THEN...OVERALL DRIER PATTERN IN CONTINUATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A ZONAL TO UPPER RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF EXPERIENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY MAY ALSO
NOTE AT LEAST LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
FINALLY...AS TOUCHED UPON PREVIOUSLY...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH THE WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
POSE LITTLE THREAT OR IMPACT TO ALL THREE TERMINAL SITES. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. INCREASED MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY. ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES
DURING THE EVENING. ANY TERMINAL THAT HAS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MOVE OVER HEAD WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VIS.
MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENT MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ASSOCIATED CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.
AG
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.
BNB
MARINE...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 82 67 83 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 82 70 84 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 68 82 69 84 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 65 82 66 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES
COMING INTO AGREEMENT. DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND ONE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE NORTHERN WAVE SLIDING FROM ALBERTA AT 00Z
MONDAY INTO EASTERN MANITOBA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
00Z TUESDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY. THE NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...BUT MOVES SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE REST. DIFFERENCES IN THE TILT OF THE TROUGH EXIST
BY THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF POSITIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
WEST...AND THE GFS/GEM/NAM NEUTRALLY/NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FURTHER
EAST. THE GEM HAS A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.
THE SOUTHERN WAVE ALOFT IS FAIRLY BROAD AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AT 00Z MONDAY.
BY 12Z MONDAY THE GFS/ECMWF SPORT A POSITIVE TILT EXTENDING FROM
IOWA INTO OKLAHOMA. THE GEM/NAM HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH...DEVELOPING
ONLY THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT IN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS
COME INTO SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH...EXTENDING IT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE TWO WAVES MERGE INTO A DISJOINTED TROUGH BY 18Z
TUESDAY...MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOGETHER AS A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAYS
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE S/SE CWA WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER
MI MONDAY OR BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO UPPER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING NORTHERN WAVE...ALLOWING THE A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW
TO CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS/NAM KEEP THE
DEVELOPING LOW FURTHER SOUTH OVER LOWER MI AND PUSH IT INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN WAVE DROPPING INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL CWA BEHIND THE MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY. OVERALL...DECIDED
TO BLEND WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE EASTERN
CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL FOR THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MON EVE-TUESDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM...WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER UPPER MI
RANGING FROM 6C TO 8C. THIS PUTS HIGHS INLAND AND WEST INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. AREAS EASTWARD WILL SEE MORE CLOUD
COVER...SO PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S...AND IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SOME DAYS. WITH THE
RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER
RIVER FLOWS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT.
MODELS LARGELY AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...KEEPING WEATHER COOL AND QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN. AGREEMENT IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE MORE POTENT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GEM/GFS...BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA BY
18Z THURSDAY. IT IS ALSO DEEPER THAN THE GFS/GEM. THE GEM/GFS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS POPS AGAIN...GIVEN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...LEADING
TO ANOTHER COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION ALONG TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES AT THE 06Z FCST ISSUANCE. GIVEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KIWD AND
KCMX.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHC FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT FORM TO LIFT AT KSAW BY LATE SUN MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW. NE LAKE BREEZE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
EXPECT LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH A LOW-LVL
JET MAX JUST OFF THE SFC.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS
6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN INTO MON /THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AWAY FROM
LOCAL LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/ WITH DEWPTS RISING AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR. EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING...LIMITING
CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN MON NIGHT INTO
THU...SOMEWHAT MODERATING THE MELT DOWN. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...THE HEAVIER RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WHERE THERE IS GENERALLY LESS SNOW ON THE GROUND. BUT WITH THE
ADDITIONAL LIQUID ADDED TO THE SNOWPACK FROM THE RECENT SNOW
STORM...WARM TEMPERATURES/GREATER SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS DROP
FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND WINDS IN
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT PCPN ON
NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST... WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHRA GOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KMSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN DROP IT
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF ALL BUT PERHAPS KEAU BY MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHRA... BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DIP
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SCATTERED SHRA WE/RE SEEING FOG DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER... PARTICULARLY WHERE SNOW MELTED YESTERDAY. COULD
DEFINITELY SEE SOME ISSUES WITH IFR AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR AT KSTC
AND KRNH THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE NEXT
ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REJUVENATING THE
SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STILL
BE LOITERING IN THE VICINITY. IT APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z... SO AT THIS POINT THE ONLY TAF WHERE ANY MENTION IS
NEEDED SHOULD BE KMSP... SO INCLUDED A VCSH THERE AFTER 07Z.
KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH WHEN WE/LL SEE THE CURRENT
SHRA ACTIVITY FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING... BUT IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
1-2 HOURS SLOWER. IN ADDITION... INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEPARTS AND WE POTENTIALLY SEE
A BIT OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT POSSIBILITY
IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW... AND IT COULD EASILY NOT OCCUR OR BE A BIT
WORSE SHOULD CLOUDS DEPART MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS OFF THE 19.12 GFS IDENTIFIED 5 WELL DEFINED PV ANOMALIES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THREE OF THESE WAVES WERE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ONE IN THE
CENTER WAS OVER MANITOBA...WHILE THE OTHER TWO WERE EQUIDISTANT
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE WITH THE REMAINING TWO WAVES WERE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRADDLING EITHER COAST...WITH ONE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA...AND THE OTHER OVER FLORIDA.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
OVER MANITOBA REVEALED A 1004MB SURFACE LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPS WAS
LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHERE WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS
INSTABILITY HAD DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED AS OF 19Z. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED
POPS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND CAUSE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
FORM ALONG THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MIDWEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM OMAHA...THROUGH LA
CROSSE WI...TO GREEN BAY WI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL HAVE THUNDER AS WELL...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2 OF PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI. MODEL AGREEMENT IS HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MORE THAN AN
INCH OF QPF LIKELY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A
GROWING CONCERN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND EC WOULD
SUGGEST HAVING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CENTRAL
MN. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN HOLDING TIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA. WE NOTICED TODAY THAT THE EC WAS A LITTLE TOO
GENEROUS WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HELD LIKELY POPS FROM NEAR ALBERT LEA TO EAU
CLAIRE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO LADYSMITH.
THE SHOWERS END EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 60S WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LOWER TO AROUND 35 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY IT BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED AT THIS
TIME ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMANATING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GEM AND GFS WOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE LOW ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE
EC WOULD HAVE THE LOW REACHING SOUTHERN MN. ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS
SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 500 MB REACH OR EXCEED 50 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FA ON ALL THREE SOLUTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THURSDAY
HAPPENS TO BE OUR SEVERE WEATHER DRILL DAY.
THE BIGGEST DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM IS HOW FAST THIS STORM
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE EC IS THE FASTEST AND WOULD HAVE
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
GEM WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. AS THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLS...IT WOULD OFFER
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING... ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FROM THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT PCPN ON
NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST... WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHRA GOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF KEEP
SOME ACTIVITY NEAR KMSP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEN DROP IT
SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF ALL BUT PERHAPS KEAU BY MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHRA... BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DIP
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR BRIEF PERIODS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SCATTERED SHRA WE/RE SEEING FOG DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
CLOUD COVER... PARTICULARLY WHERE SNOW MELTED YESTERDAY. COULD
DEFINITELY SEE SOME ISSUES WITH IFR AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR AT KSTC
AND KRNH THROUGH 13Z OR SO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THE NEXT
ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REJUVENATING THE
SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STILL
BE LOITERING IN THE VICINITY. IT APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z... SO AT THIS POINT THE ONLY TAF WHERE ANY MENTION IS
NEEDED SHOULD BE KMSP... SO INCLUDED A VCSH THERE AFTER 07Z.
KMSP...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH WHEN WE/LL SEE THE CURRENT
SHRA ACTIVITY FINALLY DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TIMING... BUT IT/S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
1-2 HOURS SLOWER. IN ADDITION... INCLUDED SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEPARTS AND WE POTENTIALLY SEE
A BIT OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT POSSIBILITY
IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW... AND IT COULD EASILY NOT OCCUR OR BE A BIT
WORSE SHOULD CLOUDS DEPART MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHRA. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A SMALL LINE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL FGEN INCREASING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THIS IS AN AREA OF
MINIMUM LCL-LFC RH AS DEPICTED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS. IR PICS AND
OBS INDICATE BROAD MID LEVEL FORCING WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND ENHANCED SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED SYNOPTIC
GRAVITY WAVE GENERATION AREA...ALSO SEEN IN EARLIER VISIBLE SAT
IMAGES. DRY LAYER BELOW CLOUD BASE SO ANY PRECIP IS EVAPORATING
CURRENTLY...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED IN WEAK RADAR ECHOES AS WELL.
BELIEVE THE MID LEVEL FGEN WILL TIGHTEN AS THE EJECTING UPPER PV
ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND THIS AREA OVERLAYS BETTER
MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP ISOLATED TSRA IN DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS INDICATED IN THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT HOWEVER. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM IT/S CURRENT
LOCATION IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
STRETCH FROM NEAR NORFOLK TO LEXINGTON TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALOFT INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING SUNDAY MORNING FROM
ROUGHLY THE ONEILL AREA...SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF
OUTPUT...BUT JUST DON/T FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING FORECAST DRY DUE TO
THE ABOVE FACTORS. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MID
MORNING ONWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY AFTERNOON...DUE HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEATING...SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE SAME AREA.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP 0 TO 3KM LAPSE RATES...OVER
9C/KM...ARE NOTED INVOF THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE DECENT...ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM. AROUND 700J/KG OF
SURFACE BASE CAPE IS AVAILABLE...AND DO EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPE SUNDAY EVENING AS A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SRN CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA.
MOISTURE FOR THIS RAIN IS QUESTIONABLE THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB IS
GETTING SHUNTED EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS INTO
THE FCST AREA MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE PIVOTAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS SHOWN IS A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN TEXAS
TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY AND MOISTURE RETURNING UP THE CNTL AND
EVEN NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE
EAST OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES AIMED AT THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE COLO FRONT RANGE AND
LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTN WHICH COULD CARRY INTO THE FCST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 LATE TUESDAY WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS MONDAY RISE INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
HIGHS INCREASE TO THE 70S TUESDAY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE WEST.
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE
FORCED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE EAST WHERE THE MOISTURE WOULD BE
DEEPEST. THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES ON TRACK. SOME
SOLNS LIKE THE GFS AND GEF ARE FARTHER WEST WITH THE DRYLINE BUT WE
WONT FOCUS ON LOCATION AS MUCH AS EVOLUTION AND THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DEEP STREAM OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
WHICH INTERACTS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. MODEL TIMING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN VARIES WITH THE GFS AND
GEF FASTEST AND THE ECM AND GEM SLOWEST. THE FASTER MODELS GENERATE
MORE STORM COVERAGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND THEN COOL INTO
THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS
TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PULL SOME LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH SPILLS THROUGH THE FCST
AREA. THE ECM INCREASES RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THIS
HAS BEEN PUT ON HOLDING PENDING THE TIMING OF THAT SECOND SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEAST CO. SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW ALLOWING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. 20.03Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWING MID LEVEL FGEN TIGHTENING AS WAS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND INTERACTING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
MESOANALYSIS AND EVENING UPPER AIR. LLJ HAS INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL
KS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH KUEX INDICATING 50KTS IN THE 500M
LEVEL. THEREFORE ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HANDLED THIS FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION WAS FIGHTING
DRY AIR INITIALLY. BELIEVE THIS MID LEVEL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE KLBF TAF SITE TONIGHT...AND
WELL SOUTH OF KVTN.
AS FOR SUNDAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW AND WORK WITH UNSTABLE AIR
TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE KLBF TAF SITE
AT THIS POINT MAINLY DUE TO THE IDEA THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE MAIN ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH AGAIN WILL BE
EAST OF THE SITE...THOUGH ISOLATED SHRA MAY DEVELOP FOR EITHER TAF
SITE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY AFFECTING TAF SITE SPECIFICALLY IS LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE KVTN TAF SITE BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT AFTER THE PERIOD FOR KLBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S ON
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
RETURN. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S READINGS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP HEIGHT
FIELDS WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING
MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ONLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED THERE AS LOW
HUMIDITIES EXIST BELOW MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. CONGESTUS CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AREA OF INCREASING
BUT STILL WEAK INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES
WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE SLOW
MOISTURE RETURN WAS HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM WERE ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVER TOP OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND
MESO SCALE MODELS (NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF) INDICATE CONVECTION
POPPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOMETIME IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD THIS
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WHEN STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CAPE
800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KT...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT BRIDGING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AFTERNOON
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS LIMITED. SO
AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES ARE SMALL...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN WILL RULE THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT PASSES
BY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT MID WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
UNDER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG THEN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT BETTER CHANCES COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WILL STILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT REMAINS NEAR KOFK AND THE WINDS THERE ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWEST AND THE WINDS GO SOUTH
SIMILAR TO KOMA/KLNK. SHRA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND HAVE
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM KOFK TAF...BUT AN ISO SHRA STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. WE DO EXPECT A
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA ON SUN BUT WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES WE WILL LEAVE THE TAFS DRY ATTM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1009 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER
A WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8 KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS
MAY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AS LOW AS 15K FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS. ON SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AOA 25K FEET OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS AS LOW
AS 15K FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY SHOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE COMPARED TO WHAT THE
GRIDS HAVE IN THEM FOR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NICE CUMULUS LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ESMERALDA COUNTY AND
THERE WERE SOME RETURNS BEING PICKED UP BY THE WSR-88D OUT OF RENO.
GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO KEEP GOING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES, I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD IN SHOWERS FOR
THIS EVENING IN THOSE AREAS. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS OK FOR NOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 137 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN ANCHORED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CUMULUS FIELD IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
WITH RADAR DETECTING LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM MEADVIEW TO
KINGMAN. FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS IT LOOKS LIKE NO SHOWERS WILL GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA CONTINUES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY WITH FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.
JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT IN FAR NORTHEAST MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTY FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST DEEPENS. WILL BE BREEZY MOST AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. RIDGETOP WINDS ALONG THE EAST
SIERRA SLOPES WILL REALLY START TO HOWL MONDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
ONTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OF INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH FOR
TUESDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY (GUSTS OVER 40 MPH) LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE OTHER HAND LOOK LESS AND
LESS PROMISING WITH JUST THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
HAVING ANY CHANCE AT ALL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE JUST DRY
AND WINDY.
SPEAKING OF DRY AND WINDY...THE COMBINED FORCES WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THANKS TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA BELOW 6000 FEET WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
ON WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. THEREAFTER MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF WINDY
CONDITIONS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...PIERCE/OUTER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT NOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE NE. OTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
SOCORRO AND NW LINCOLN COUNTIES. TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR A TEMPO
GROUP IN SAF AND VCSH IN LVS. ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN SUNDAY PM FAVORING THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE...WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1103 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS TOWARD LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE FAR NE LOOKS TO BE THE
FAVOR AREAS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO BUMPED DOWN LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CURRENT TEMPS WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1103 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS TOWARD LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE FAR NE LOOKS TO BE THE
FAVOR AREAS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO BUMPED DOWN LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CURRENT TEMPS WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1103 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS TOWARD LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE FAR NE LOOKS TO BE THE
FAVOR AREAS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO BUMPED DOWN LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CURRENT TEMPS WERE
ALREADY APPROACHING PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...546 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE NIGHT OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT
HOURS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND MT OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY. ONLY GOING WITH VCTS AND VCSH FOR
FMN...GUP...ABQ AND AEG. CATEGORICAL FOR SAF...LVS AND TCC THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY ARE ALL REPORTING RAIN. A BIT OF A
LULL POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION FIRING IN THE
AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL
AS THE NE WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REACH. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE
MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS. SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ON A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE LATE
EVENING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THIS EVENINGS PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS ERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED SUNDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH FURTHER WEST
TO KLBB COULD SEE SOME STORMS NEARBY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
OVERHEAD. STILL...CHANCES NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT TS
MENTION THERE BUT CERTAINLY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION AT KCDS.
AS FOR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY...00Z MODEL RUN BACKING OFF
THAT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AM
HESITANT TO REMOVE MENTION ATTM AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO TWEAK AS
TREND BECOMES CLEARER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADDRESS RECENT TRENDS. MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS
TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 18Z GFS AND 00Z
TTU-WRF NOT TOO BAD WITH THIS SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THAT
HAS COME OUT OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND INTO SRN HALF OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME IF
MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...AND THE RAIN SHOULD STAY MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED PRE-06Z POPS
FOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND ADJUSTED 06Z-12Z POPS TO INCREASE KEEPING
SERN ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
AVIATION...
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM A LOW OVER THE DESERT SW LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AS WELL. LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF KCDS THE FIRST TWO
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE EVENING AS
THE NEXT WAVE IS SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GUADALUPE MTS OF
SRN NM TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR TO THE NE
THIS CONVECTION WILL GO. SOME THREAT TO MAKE IT TO THE FCST AREA
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ATTM TO INSERT MENTION IN EITHER TAF. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES SUNDAY AFTN FAVORING KCDS OVER KLBB
AND WILL RUN WITH A PROB30 THERE FOR NOW. FINALLY...POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z FAVORING KLBB OVER KCDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH
LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 74 49 77 49 / 40 20 10 10 0
TULIA 54 75 52 78 51 / 30 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 54 75 54 80 52 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 54 76 54 80 52 / 60 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 56 77 55 81 53 / 60 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 55 78 55 79 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 78 54 80 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 58 80 58 82 55 / 30 40 30 10 10
SPUR 57 79 59 84 55 / 50 40 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 58 79 60 85 56 / 50 40 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS BASICALLY STALLED...AND UP TO THIS POINT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD
CHANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE VCSH AT BOTH TAF
SITES FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
WINDS RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT LSE. AFTER
12Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 15Z AND AFTER 19Z AS THE FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE TAF SITES. THESE TIME PERIODS COINCIDE WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SHOULD SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL WITH SAY A
THUNDERSTORM...THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1149 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOCKED IN ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS PULLING THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DOWN THE COAST LINE. RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AT 9AM WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 60S WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 10 TO 15 MPH JUST INLAND
AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WELL INLAND.
AFTER LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP WITH LOW LEVEL RUC WINDS
PLACED OVER TOP CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES OR SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
OPTION. THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST LOOK TO STAY AROUND ALL DAY AS
BOTH THE RUC AND 06Z GFS ARE SHOWING VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR
MASS IN THE 925-850MB...ROUGHLY 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE...HOLDING FAST
THROUGH SUNSET IF NOT LONGER PER THE GFS MODEL RUN.
CURRENT HIGHS OF UPPER 70S INTERIOR MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH BUT
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE CAN PUSH
TEMPERATURES UPWARD QUICKLY THEN DROP BACK AS SKIES CLOUD OVER.
ALONG THE COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY. NORTHERLY WIND OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 68...68 AT DAYTONA BEACH...AND LOW
70S...72 AT COCOA BEACH...WILL KEEP THE OCEANFRONT AND AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON FROM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S LOOK TO BE A BETTER CALL.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ASCD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRES
CENTER OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT LINE CAN BE SEEN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF KBKV-KSFB-KTTS DELINEATING NRLY FLOW FROM NW/W WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE L60S AREAWIDE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TODAY AND WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THIS MIGHT HAVE ON TEMPS. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF BREAKS NEAR THE COAST...FORECAST SHOWS ONLY
A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
STAYS CYCLONIC WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUNG OUT OVER THE STATE.
FLOW DOES FLATTENS OUT A LITTLE AFTER 00Z...WHILE SFC-H85 FLOW LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST...SO THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...PERHAPS MORESO THAN SHOWN BY THE
LATEST SKY COVER GRIDS.
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY...OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER - MAINLY U70S...WITH M70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY IN COASTAL
VOLUSIA. MINS IN THE U50S TO L60S WEST OF I-95...BUT WITH WINDS
VEERING A TAD TO N TO NNE OVERNIGHT...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM
BREVARD SWD MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE TO EVEN U60S ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL SHOW THIS TEMP SPREAD IN THE ZFP.
MON-TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AND
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY GET SQUEEZED OUT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST U.S. COAST BY LATE ON TUE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIE ALONG THE GULF COAST/FL-GA BORDER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH POPS 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. GRADUAL BUMP UPWARDS IN HIGHS/LOWS EACH DAY AS THE AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODERATES.
WED-SAT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP CURRENT
GRIDDED POPS IN THE 10-14 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY GET ADDED DOWN THE LINE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN MEAGER WITH QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH TO SOUTH ALL DAY.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
LOOKING AT A COMPARISON OF THE 3.9UM SHORT WAVE AND (11-3.9)UM
LOW CLOUD IR CHANNELS COUPLED WITH SURFACE METARS LOW BASED SC
AROUND BKN025-035 APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD TYPE
SOUTH OF A KTPA-KLAL-KGIF-KMLB LINE...WITH MAINLY ST/STFRA ~OVC-
BKN006-015 TO THE NORTH. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO VFR BKN025-035
MUCH OF TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 009 WAS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AND 6 FOOT SEAS. THE BUOYS 4
AND 6 MILES OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS HAVE NOT FULLY IMPACTED THE SEA SURFACE AS THEY ARE
SLOWLY INCREASING AND SHIFTED FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PATTERN OF NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS PLUS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS STILL A
GOOD CALL. THE EXPANDING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 10 AM TO
COVER ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET STILL A GOOD CALL.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS ON TAP AS PGRAD TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SERN CONUS SFC LOW AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. STRONGER N-NNW WINDS LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO NORTH
AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM SAUF1 (N@25P27KT) AND 41010KT (NW@17P22KT).
THE SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD 20-60NM LEGS AT
4AM...AND EXTEND TO ALL BUT THE SEB-JUP 0-20 LEG BY 10AM. A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE INTERIM WHERE IT
DOESN`T START AT 4.
SUN-WED...WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
OVER THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY FAVORABLE
LATER ON TUE PAST MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 60 74 57 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 78 60 79 59 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 75 64 77 60 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 75 66 77 59 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 78 59 80 59 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 78 61 79 58 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 78 62 80 60 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 78 66 78 60 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1135 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
With stratus refusing to lift...updated 1st period GRIDS to
increase sky cover and tweak dwon expected Max temps..to low 70s
west to upper 60s east.
The large scale regional pattern this morning shows mid/upper ridge
over Wrn MS and slow moving low parked just off Carolina Coast. At
the surface...low has slightly decoupled from upper system and was
located off SE GA Coast. In response...High continues to wedge down
Ern seaboard. Wrap around moisture from surface low continues to
move WSW and across local area keeping a low stratus blanket with
some drizzle Ern third of CWA. This reflected in RAP soundings and
12z RAOBS which show ample moisture at lowest levels then
increasingly dry air and with PWATs hovering around 0.9 inches...
NNE flow at lowest levels backing to NLY H85-H6 then NW above H6.
During the rest of today...upstream ridge will continue to build Ewd
with rising heights..NVA and increasing subsidence especially Wrn CFWA.
This will shunt low further to the NE. Surface low moves further
Newd with Ern ridge wedging down into the Nrn CWA. This could
tighten local gradient and provide some gusty winds. As a result...
low level flow backs to NE and PWATS remain near 1 inch implying
that low clouds will be slow to erode..especially NE third of CWA.
Further west..expect some morning breaks in the overcast followed by
partly cloudy aftn skies as upper/lower ridge impact increasingly
felt. All this could impact max temps. Highs will be warmer than
yesterday...from the low 70s SW to upper 60s across cloudier NE.
&&
.Prev Discussion [918 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of
change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday,
followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with
temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front
from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will
be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger,
wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with
modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in).
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to
weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo
values on Tuesday.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...IFR then borderline MVFR cigs will
continue to prevail this morning. Thereafter, the low level
cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE
through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low
pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further
away. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist past midnight. Neither fog
nor low clouds are expected.
.Marine...
Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to
the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered
closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an
approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather
light.
.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
.Hydrology...
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points
along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood
stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not
forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 70 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 70 56 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 71 52 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 40
Albany 69 50 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 30
Valdosta 69 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Cross City 72 52 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 68 56 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOCKED IN ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS PULLING THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DOWN THE COAST LINE. RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AT 9AM WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 60S WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 10 TO 15 MPH JUST INLAND
AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WELL INLAND.
AFTER LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP WITH LOW LEVEL RUC WINDS
PLACED OVER TOP CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES OR SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
OPTION. THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST LOOK TO STAY AROUND ALL DAY AS
BOTH THE RUC AND 06Z GFS ARE SHOWING VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR
MASS IN THE 925-850MB...ROUGHLY 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE...HOLDING FAST
THROUGH SUNSET IF NOT LONGER PER THE GFS MODEL RUN.
CURRENT HIGHS OF UPPER 70S INTERIOR MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH BUT
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE CAN PUSH
TEMPERATURES UPWARD QUICKLY THEN DROP BACK AS SKIES CLOUD OVER.
ALONG THE COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY. NORTHERLY WIND OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 68...68 AT DAYTONA BEACH...AND LOW
70S...72 AT COCOA BEACH...WILL KEEP THE OCEANFRONT AND AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON FROM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S LOOK TO BE A BETTER CALL.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ASCD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRES
CENTER OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT LINE CAN BE SEEN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF KBKV-KSFB-KTTS DELINEATING NRLY FLOW FROM NW/W WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE L60S AREAWIDE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TODAY AND WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THIS MIGHT HAVE ON TEMPS. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF BREAKS NEAR THE COAST...FORECAST SHOWS ONLY
A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
STAYS CYCLONIC WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUNG OUT OVER THE STATE.
FLOW DOES FLATTENS OUT A LITTLE AFTER 00Z...WHILE SFC-H85 FLOW LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST...SO THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...PERHAPS MORESO THAN SHOWN BY THE
LATEST SKY COVER GRIDS.
SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY...OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER - MAINLY U70S...WITH M70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY IN COASTAL
VOLUSIA. MINS IN THE U50S TO L60S WEST OF I-95...BUT WITH WINDS
VEERING A TAD TO N TO NNE OVERNIGHT...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM
BREVARD SWD MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE TO EVEN U60S ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL SHOW THIS TEMP SPREAD IN THE ZFP.
MON-TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AND
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY GET SQUEEZED OUT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST U.S. COAST BY LATE ON TUE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIE ALONG THE GULF COAST/FL-GA BORDER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH POPS 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. GRADUAL BUMP UPWARDS IN HIGHS/LOWS EACH DAY AS THE AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODERATES.
WED-SAT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP CURRENT
GRIDDED POPS IN THE 10-14 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY GET ADDED DOWN THE LINE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN MEAGER WITH QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH TO SOUTH ALL DAY.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
LOOKING AT A COMPARISON OF THE 3.9UM SHORT WAVE AND (11-3.9)UM
LOW CLOUD IR CHANNELS COUPLED WITH SURFACE METARS LOW BASED SC
AROUND BKN025-035 APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD TYPE
SOUTH OF A KTPA-KLAL-KGIF-KMLB LINE...WITH MAINLY ST/STFRA ~OVC-
BKN006-015 TO THE NORTH. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO VFR BKN025-035
MUCH OF TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 009 WAS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AND 6 FOOT SEAS. THE BUOYS 4
AND 6 MILES OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS HAVE NOT FULLY IMPACTED THE SEA SURFACE AS THEY ARE
SLOWLY INCREASING AND SHIFTED FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PATTERN OF NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS PLUS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS STILL A
GOOD CALL. THE EXPANDING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 10 AM TO
COVER ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET STILL A GOOD CALL.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS ON TAP AS PGRAD TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SERN CONUS SFC LOW AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. STRONGER N-NNW WINDS LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO NORTH
AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM SAUF1 (N@25P27KT) AND 41010KT (NW@17P22KT).
THE SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD 20-60NM LEGS AT
4AM...AND EXTEND TO ALL BUT THE SEB-JUP 0-20 LEG BY 10AM. A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE INTERIM WHERE IT
DOESN`T START AT 4.
SUN-WED...WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
OVER THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY FAVORABLE
LATER ON TUE PAST MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 60 74 57 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 78 60 79 59 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 75 64 77 60 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 75 66 77 59 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 78 59 80 59 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 78 61 79 58 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 78 62 80 60 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 78 66 78 60 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
956 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER UPDATES WILL BE THE "WRAP-AROUND"
CLOUDS FORECAST TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 500MB TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT IS
MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP
WITH ITS BASE AT 4K SO THESE CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION. THE HRRR WHICH IS A HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL
IS HANDLING THE SITUATION BETTER AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS LIFTING OUT
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE
TREND IS INDICATING TO0 RAPID OF A DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD
FIELD. ALSO, THIS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT LIFT OUT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/
AVIATION...
CIGS RANGING FROM 3-4 KFT THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND
BREAK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS HEATING AND MIXING
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT FROM THE NW THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. 85/AG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF LOW STRATUS AND STRATOCU
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS HOLDING TEMPS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST
OF THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TODAY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ERODING
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND NORMAL GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. FOR EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH RATHER UNEVENTFUL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST. IN FACT, NO APPRECIATIVE SIGNAL/INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE WISE, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT
MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED
CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE BUT COULD JUST DROP INTO THE
HIGH END OF THE MVFR RANGE PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE TONIGHT MAINLY OFF
THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IN ITSELF WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH
A SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE
PALM BEACH WATERS AND 2 FEET OFF THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
WATERS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFF THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE BROWARD WATERS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, SCEC FOR TONIGHT
AND SCA FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FOR THOSE WATERS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SWELL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST TIL LATE TUESDAY OR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK EVEN AFTER PEAKING
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY PART OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT THE VERY LEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 68 81 67 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 82 69 / 0 10 10 10
MIAMI 80 68 83 69 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 82 65 83 65 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
918 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The large scale regional pattern this morning shows mid/upper ridge
over Wrn MS and slow moving low parked just off Carolina Coast. At
the surface...low has slightly decoupled from upper system and was
located off SE GA Coast. In response...High continues to wedge down
Ern seaboard. Wrap around moisture from surface low continues to
move WSW and across local area keeping a low stratus blanket with
some drizzle Ern third of CWA. This reflected in RAP soundings and
12z RAOBS which show ample moisture at lowest levels then
increasingly dry air and with PWATs hovering around 0.9 inches...
NNE flow at lowest levels backing to NLY H85-H6 then NW above H6.
During the rest of today...upstream ridge will continue to build Ewd
with rising heights..NVA and increasing subsidence especially Wrn CFWA.
This will shunt low further to the NE. Surface low moves further
Newd with Ern ridge wedging down into the Nrn CWA. This could
tighten local gradient and provide some gusty winds. As a result...
low level flow backs to NE and PWATS remain near 1 inch implying
that low clouds will be slow to erode..especially NE third of CWA.
Further west..expect some morning breaks in the overcast followed by
partly cloudy aftn skies as upper/lower ridge impact increasingly
felt. All this could impact max temps. Highs will be warmer than
yesterday...from the low 70s SW to upper 60s across cloudier NE.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...IFR then borderline MVFR cigs will
continue to prevail this morning. Thereafter, the low level
cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE
through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low
pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further
away. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist past midnight. Neither fog
nor low clouds are expected.
&&
.Prev Discussion [305 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of
change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday,
followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with
temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front
from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will
be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger,
wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with
modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in).
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to
weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo
values on Tuesday.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...
The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.
.Marine...
Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to
the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered
closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an
approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather
light.
.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.
.Hydrology...
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points
along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood
stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not
forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week.
The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 72 56 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 73 52 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 40
Albany 71 50 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 30
Valdosta 71 50 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 20
Cross City 75 52 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 70 56 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1028 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH MIDLANDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAISED THE TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. ALSO REMOVED POPS AS MOISTURE FLUX
IS SHIFTING TO COAST. LATEST RAP AND LAMP SUGGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY COOL START AND
CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AFFECTING MAINLY AGS BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THEN BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
925 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL HELP CAUSE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EARLY...
MAINLY IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORT THE MODEL FORECAST OF THE LOW SHIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE RAIN CHANCE SHOULD DIMINISH. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS
SUPPORT CONTINUED HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY. BELIEVE THE EAST PART WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. BREAKS MAY OCCUR
IN THE WEST PART CLOSER TO THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. WE USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
A FEW GUSTS NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT LATEST RAP AND
LAMP SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY COOL START AND
CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST AND MVFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AFFECTING MAINLY AGS BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THEN BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 15Z. THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING IN THE
EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
603 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
07Z water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave still over
southwest NM with bits of vorticity lifting out across the TX and OK
panhandles into western KS. Surface obs show an inverted trough of
low pressure extending from southeastern CO into eastern NEB. Low
level moisture return has been less than impressive and even now
with a good low level jet higher dewpoints seem to be stuck along
the TX gulf coast. Models PROG the upper shortwave to move out
across OK and KS today and tonight. This wave should bring some
cooler mid level temps and steepening lapse rates that is expected
to remove any inhibition to convection. However models show the
magnitude of the large scale forcing to be weak. Additionally the
main surface feature for focusing low level convergence remains
mainly to the northwest of the forecast area today. So with
instability driven mainly by day time heating, think convection will
be scattered in nature and may be more hit or miss due to the
relative lack of a dominate feature to focus convection. CAPE values
are expected to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/km range but deep layer
shear continues to be unimpressive. This suggests chances for severe
weather remains low. With some insolation and southerly low level
winds persisting through the day, highs are forecast to warm into
the mid and upper 70s.
The main question for tonight is whether convection falls apart with
the loss of day time heating or if the mid level deformation and
weak forcing of the upper wave will allow precip to fester
overnight. Think the lessening of instability overnight may cause
coverage to lessen, so have shown POPs to trend lower overnight but
will keep a chance for precip as the GFS and ECMWF continue to
generate some light QPF. Lows tonight should remain mild since the
boundary doesn`t make much of a push until Monday morning. The
forecast shows low generally in the upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
By 12Z Monday morning, consensus guidance progs the cold front to be
entering far north central Kansas. Due to forcing along the boundary
combined with maximum lift from the upper trough axis, have
maintained chances for thunderstorms, highest being across
east central and far northeast areas through mid afternoon. Elevated
instability increases during this time while shear profiles remain
weak below 20 kts therefore severe storms are not expected. Main
concerns on Monday will be the heavy rain potential as deep moisture
raises PWAT values peak between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. Dry air works
its way southeast behind the front by late afternoon with precip
chances ending early Monday evening. Upper ridge on Tuesday will
spell quiet and warm conditions across the area with highs
remaining in the low 70s.
A negatively tilted trough deepens and lifts northeast over the
Inter-mountain west late Tuesday evening, ejecting a leading
shortwave trough into the northern and central plains. An aiding low
level jet will develop showers and thunderstorms over north central
Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent in timing with the
GFS being a tad slower. The 00Z NAM carries less moisture
availability and so will maintain chance pops from previous
forecast.
A warm and moist air mass builds in the central plains Wednesday
afternoon with the dry line and cold front set up across western
Kansas and Nebraska. As the upper trough lifts northeast, showers
and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the aforementioned
boundaries late Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance has been
consistent with this activity developing west of the CWA and
progressing eastward with the cold front Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Precip chances were increased to likely for Wednesday
evening. While the capping inversion holds through the day at CNK,
elevated severe storms would be possible (especially over north
central Kansas) with instability near 1000 J/KG and effective shear
(0-6km) in excess of 50 kts. The ECMWF is the slightly faster
solution than the GFS, however both clear precip out of the area
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor this system as changes
are likely in the depth of instability and timing. Highs during
this time peak in the upper 70s Wednesday and lower 70s Thursday.
Next system looks to impact the area Saturday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the day. ECMWF/GFS are trending a
cool Canadian airmass further south behind a cold front with highs
Saturday in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Confidence in timing precip at the terminals is low since there is
no good feature to focus convection. Most of the guidance is
pointing to daytime heating destabilizing the atmosphere and weak
forcing from the upper wave sparking convection by the late
afternoon. Think convection is likely to be of a scattered nature.
Because of this will keep the forecast VFR with only a VCTS at
this time. If a thunderstorm moves into the terminal, temporary IFR
VSBY is likely.
The potential for low level wind shear will persist until about
14Z when the RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing
out.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MCK VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. BY 16Z SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MCK VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. BY 16Z SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING PATCHY FOG/MVFR VSBY AT SAW EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MRNG AS DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES
THE FOG. OTRW...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVNG AS A WEAK HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR WORK INTO UPR
MI. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY MID LVL AIR OVER MELTING SN UNDER THE
LINGERING SFC RDG ALLOWING FOR SGNFT RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG
TO DVLP AT ALL 3 SITES. THE BEST CHC FOR IFR VSBYS WL BE AT CMX AND
SAW WITH A MORE FVRBL LIGHT ESE LLVL WIND.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
619 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP OFF TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS DROP
FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND WINDS IN
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
PRIMARY ISSUES ARE AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY OCCURRING... CHANCES FOR
SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER
TONIGHT. SHRA FROM OVERNIGHT HAS FINALLY SAGGED SOUTH OF MOST OF
THE AREA... ALTHOUGH KEAU COULD STILL SEE SOME FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH FOR
MOST OF THE DAY... BUT AN UPPER WAVE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD WORK TO BRING SOME SHRA BACK NORTH AGAIN. AT THIS POINT DID
NOT INCLUDE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN... BUT TRIED TO REFLECT
SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM IS THE FOG WHICH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND SOME LOCALIZED IFR AND LIFR. LUCKILY SUNRISE WILL BE
OCCURRING... SO WE SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MANY FOG CONCERNS BEYOND
13... EXCEPT NEAR KRNH WHERE THE LOSS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY ALLOWED THINGS TO
BECOME VFR BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z... WHICH SHOULD WORK OUT OK.
KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE FOG DURING THE FIRST HOUR
OR TWO OF THE TAF... WHICH COULD BRIEFLY GET DOWN TO AOB 1SM.
HOWEVER... GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING AND THE FACT
THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF... DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT LOW IN THE
FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH PCPN RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. TRIED TO CAPTURE A COUPLE OF
POTENTIAL TIME FRAMES WHEN SHRA LOOK MOST LIKELY NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE THIS EVENING AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER
TONIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE THE TIMING VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST...
SO THAT WILL LIKELY BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE...SO
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH IN THE TAFS. AVOIDED FILLING TAFS
WITH LONG PERIODS OF TEMPO AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING AND EITHER USED
VCSH OR JUST PREVAILED -SHRA...KNOWING THAT -SHRA BY NATURE ARE SCT
AND PASSING FEATURES AT ANY ONE POINT. WITH TSRA COVERAGE GENERALLY
ISOLATED...LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF TSRA TRENDS TOWARD
MORE COVERAGE IN THE SHORTER TERM...UPDATES OR LATER TAF CYCLES CAN
ADD CB/VCTS OR TSRA AS NEEDED.
MOST CIGS/VSBYS TODAY THRU THIS EVENING WILL BE VFR...WITH ISOLATED/
WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHRA OR ANY TSRA.
FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING
TO POOL NEAR IT. GUIDANCE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/-SHRA LATER
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD MVFR IN BR/-SHRA
LATER TONIGHT IN EITHER TEMPO OR PREVAILING PERIOD AT KLSE/KRST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
UPPER LOW OVER SE CO/NW NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND INSTABILITY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND APPEARS THAT TAIL END OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH MAY BE AIDING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS NW CO. THIS
LATTER FEATURE WILL CLIP THROUGH NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RUN-OFF
PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR WHERE RAINFALL OCCURED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
RADAR ESTIMATES COMPARED WITH GAGES IN THE AREA SUGGEST THAT
PORTIONS OF THE BURN SCAR MAY HAVE RECEIVED .50 TO .70 OF RAINFALL.
THIS OCCURRED SLOWLY THOUGH WITH RATES UNDER .10 TO .20 PER
HOUR...SO NO PROBLEMS WERE NOTED. HOWEVER IF THIS AREA WERE TO GET
HIT WITH A STRONGER CELL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THE SATURATED
GROUND MAY RESULT IN SOME QUICK RUN-OFF PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
COVER IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE
STABLE...SO RISK SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT.
A LITTLE BETTER HEATING HAS BEEN REALIZED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND LATEST HRRR DROPS THEM INTO THE UPPER 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH REALLY CUTS BACK ON THE INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH. WHILE CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER CELL IMPACTING THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...THINK THIS
CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND IF IT DID WOULD PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN SOME MINOR RUN-OFF ISSUES AT BEST.
ALSO...WATCHING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF THE STATE IN VCNTY OF UPPER
LOW...WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A SHORT LIVED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO/LANDSPOUT. SO
FAR...UPDRAFT STRENGTHS HAVEN`T BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO STRETCH ANY
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY AS SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A POCKET OF HIGH NON-SUPERCELL TOR INDICES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALL ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO THESE THREATS SHOULD QUICKLY
COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
ON MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN TODAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. -KT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS LONGER TERM THINKING WITH
MAIN LONGER TERM ISSUES BEING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND...INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS FROM LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT VARYING DEGREES OF ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY)...PRIMARILY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THEN POSSIBLY CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WFO
PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
IN ADDITION...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS CLOSELY.
SWITCHING FOCUS TO TEMPERATURES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT BOTH MINIMUM
AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE BY NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. IFR TO EVEN LOCAL LIFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WHERE
HEAVY WET SNOW/GRAUPEL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CIGS/VIS WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN VFR
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE
WILL ALSO CARRY THE THREAT OF SOME SMALL HAIL. CLEARING SKIES WILL
SET IN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1158 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH MIDLANDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SO EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAISED THE TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE EAST. ALSO REMOVED POPS AS MOISTURE FLUX
IS SHIFTING TO COAST. LATEST RAP AND LAMP SUGGEST SUSTAINED
WINDS BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THIS
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
TONIGHT BECAUSE WE WILL GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY COOL START AND
CLOUDINESS AND WIND SHOULD DECREASE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TIMING WILL BE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S
-4 TO -5 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE H85 FLOW WILL BE
WESTERLY WITH GULF MOISTURE MAINLY CUT OFF. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FRIDAY BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATO- CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING. NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS...DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
BY THIS EVENING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Ample insolation early this afternoon resulted in surface-based CAPE
in the 700-1100 J/kg west of Highway 283 to the Colorado border.
Lack of a capping inversion beneath cool temperatures in the
700-500mb layer (+2C at 700mb). There were two areas of surface
convergence that will support development of thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon. The first area is near the Colorado border along the
stationary trough axis, which is also near where the mid level
vorticity center is. We are also watching a secondary area of
interest from Dodge City south to the Oklahoma border where surface
wind convergence was slightly enhanced. 1km visible satellite
confirmed development of cumulus in both of these areas. Given the
higher degree of instability than earlier anticipated, a few hail
storms may occur with the largest hail most likely being around
1-inch in diameter (Quarter size). Severe weather threat will likely
wane after 00Z or so as showers and thunderstorms grow upscale. This
is what the HRRR would seem to suggest in its latest runs, which
makes sense given the marginal instability. Much of the
precipitation should be coming to an end/or exiting the southwest
Kansas region in the 04-07Z time frame so POPs will be lowered
during this time frame and shortly thereafter.
A northern stream shortwave trough will aid in bringing a cold front
south through western Nebraska late tonight, reaching southwestern
Kansas by mid to late morning Monday. The front is not expected to
have any impact on temperatures, though, so the going forecast of
upper 70s to near 80 still looks pretty good (especially along/south
of the Arkansas River).
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Upper level ridging builds over the Plains Monday night through
Tuesday with dry conditions in the mid levels. This will allow
mostly clear skies to be observed across western Kansas. This will
be short lived as the next storm system moves into the Northern
Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly winds will be felt
across western Kansas as this system approaches with increasing mid
level moisture Tuesday night. A moderate upper level jet will be
found above western Kansas on Wednesday enhancing lift across the
area. Southerly winds will continue at the surface becoming windy in
the afternoon. In addition, a dryline is suggested to develop in the
afternoon with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses.
These conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of the
dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of these
storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main concern. A cold front then moves through
western Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Lows
Tuesday morning will be in the low to mid 40s with highs Tuesday
reaching into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The warmest day of the
week looks to be on Wednesday with lows in the mid 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. Lows Thursday morning look to range from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas where the aforementioned cold front is
expected to move through early to upper 50s across south central
Kansas where the front is not expected to move through by sunrise.
Dry conditions are then expected during the remainder of the week as
an upper level ridge builds above the Plains with dry conditions in
the mid levels. Winds shift back to the south by Saturday as the
next storm system entered the western United States. This system is
expected to affect western Kansas this weekend bringing an increase
in clouds and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs Thursday through this
weekend will generally be in the 70s with lower 80s possible across
far southwestern Kansas on Saturday. Lows will generally be in the
mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
11-3.9 micron satellite and METAR imagery combination was showing
VFR altostratus across the area. Southerly winds will increase
eventually be taken over by north winds late in the day as the
surface low develops and shifts eastward. Isentropic lift will aid
in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms by late day,
mainly in the IFR/MVFR category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 77 45 79 / 50 10 0 10
GCK 51 76 43 82 / 50 0 0 10
EHA 49 76 46 83 / 20 10 0 10
LBL 51 78 46 83 / 50 0 0 10
HYS 56 77 43 79 / 60 10 0 10
P28 56 77 47 79 / 50 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014
...Updated Short Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Ample insolation early this afternoon resulted in surface-based CAPE
in the 700-1100 J/kg west of Highway 283 to the Colorado border.
Lack of a capping inversion beneath cool temperatures in the
700-500mb layer (+2C at 700mb). There were two areas of surface
convergence that will support development of thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon. The first area is near the Colorado border along the
stationary trough axis, which is also near where the mid level
vorticity center is. We are also watching a secondary area of
interest from Dodge City south to the Oklahoma border where surface
wind convergence was slightly enhanced. 1km visible satellite
confirmed development of cumulus in both of these areas. Given the
higher degree of instability than earlier anticipated, a few hail
storms may occur with the largest hail most likely being around
1-inch in diameter (Quarter size). Severe weather threat will likely
wane after 00Z or so as showers and thunderstorms grow upscale. This
is what the HRRR would seem to suggest in its latest runs, which
makes sense given the marginal instability. Much of the
precipitation should be coming to an end/or exiting the southwest
Kansas region in the 04-07Z time frame so POPs will be lowered
during this time frame and shortly thereafter.
A northern stream shortwave trough will aid in bringing a cold front
south through western Nebraska late tonight, reaching southwestern
Kansas by mid to late morning Monday. The front is not expected to
have any impact on temperatures, though, so the going forecast of
upper 70s to near 80 still looks pretty good (especially along/south
of the Arkansas River).
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Models show the shortwave trough exiting the area on Monday, as
surface high pressure settles southward from the North Plains under
the advancing mid level ridge. This pattern will result breezy
northeast surface winds eventually veering southeast by Monday
night. The relative weak cold advection pattern should at least
limit the diurnal warming in the afternoon. Much warmer than normal
conditions are expected however by Tuesday and especially on
Wednesday as a dryline moves into the area with strong vertical
mixing potential. The upper wave pattern across the region suggest
very windy conditions on Wednesday well into the wind advisory
criteria range for the entire area, from southwest winds and first
and then with a cold front crashing through western Kansas as the
dynamic low moves through the Northern Plains. Additionally the
dryline should be the focus for deep moist convection development
in the late afternoon, with rapidly moving thunderstorms. Large
scale lift could prolong convective activity in the central Kansas
or even on a retreating dryline later into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The remainder of the week will probably bring flat
upper ridging across the high plains while another wave moves
onshore of the west coast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
11-3.9 micron satellite and METAR imagery combination was showing
VFR altostratus across the area. Southerly winds will increase
eventually be taken over by north winds late in the day as the
surface low develops and shifts eastward. Isentropic lift will aid
in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms by late day,
mainly in the IFR/MVFR category.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 77 45 79 / 50 10 0 10
GCK 51 76 43 82 / 50 0 0 10
EHA 49 76 46 83 / 20 10 0 10
LBL 51 78 46 83 / 50 0 0 10
HYS 56 77 43 79 / 60 10 0 10
P28 56 77 47 79 / 50 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF TUESDAY AND STRONG WINDS/FIRE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE/A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER
THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF
SOUTHERN STREAM. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. SLOW MOVING AND COMPLICATED
UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
AT JET LEVEL...GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET. AT MID
LEVELS...COMPLICATED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH A
NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. MODELS NOT DOING TOO
BAD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN. RAP
AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS AND SREF
WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE RAP WAS CATCHING THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THE BEST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. MODELS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST TWO DAYS ARE SLOWER...A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE CLOSED OFF...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB.
FRONT THAT EARLIER WAS DRAPED ALONG OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EDGE HAS
PULLED BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO NOT BUDGING AND PRESSURE FALLS INDUCED BY INCOMING SYSTEM.
NO PRECIPITATION NOW BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SOME FROM YESTERDAY THE MODELS ARE PUTTING THE 700
MB CIRCULATION IN A POSITION THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE TO WRAP AROUND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MORE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. DEFORMATION AND EVEN A TROWAL IS SHOWING UP
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. CONVERGENCE FROM RETREATING
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP PRECIPITATION IN THIS SAME AREA. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP...00Z GFS AND THE 06Z NAM ARE SHOWING THIS NICELY.
IN ADDITION TO THIS OTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM DUE TO RATHER DEEP AND BROAD LIFT. RESPONSE TO
THE LIFT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES.
ALL THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS AND EXPANDED
THEM FURTHER WEST. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
LATER ON THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE OLD COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND MAYBE EVEN
BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES IN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LOT OF
SUNSHINE. ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD
TO NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARMUP OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT
THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT FOR A WHILE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOWERED MINS PER THIS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING WINDY MAYBE EVEN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME
AM RAISING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE MAY BE NEEDED. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
THAT DISCUSSION.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AXIS AND VERY GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LINE UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS COMBINED
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COMING IN DURING PEAK HEATING TIME SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT CONSIDERING
ALL THAT IS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. AT
THIS TIME LEFT THE AFTERNOON ALONE AND INCREASED THE AREA AFFECTED
DURING THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
HIGHLITES...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES...AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CENTER OF UPPER 500MB TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
BE WINDS/LOW RH AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND/FIRE WEATHER (SEE BELOW)
HIGHLITES.
FROM THE GFS MODEL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR SFC TO 500MB
SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO APRIL 13 2010 WHEN THE FORECAST AREA
EXPERIENCED SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50KTS. IN THIS CASE SFC
WINDS WOULD BE SOUTHWESTERLY VS SOUTHERLY IN THE 2010 EVENT.
PER GFS STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING WHERE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 KTS EXPECTED BASED ON LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM AND
USING DATA FROM THE 2010 EVENT. PLUGGING IN SOME VALUES FROM THE
2010 EVENT TO THE GFS FORECAST WINDS SHOWS GUSTS INCHING A BIT
CLOSER TO HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BOTH
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS RIGHT AT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD HAVE NUDGED
THEM UP FURTHER BUT ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO GFS SO FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY. REGARDLESS OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FRONT IS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IF GFS VERIFIES PRETTY HEALTHY 6 HOUR
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET OF UP TO 11MB MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...HIGHER THEN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLITE THIS AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED IS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT (NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA).
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLD
FRONT QUICKLY SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD OR PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS AFTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW
80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. IF THE WARMER GFS VERIFIES ITS 850
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS
MID TO 40 WEST...LOW 40S EAST. MAY HAVE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
SUGGESTING THAT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA ON EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THOSE
AREAS DIFFER. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. CANT ARGUE AGAINST
CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CURRENT AGAIN IS HANDLED SUFFICIENTLY IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
VFR EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED. DUE TO LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN VCSH FOR THE PRECIPITATION AT
EITHER LOCATION. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014
FOR TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE OR NOT ALLOWED
TO DROP VERY LOW. THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO
STAY JUST ABOVE 20 PERCENT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM...
THE AMOUNT OF DRYING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FOR WEDNESDAY....CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM NOON MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM
CDT) WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND PROBABLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...99/BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
105 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.
TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS DRY AIR HAS SURGED OVER THE THREE TAF SITES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS
IF/WHEN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MUCH OF THE TIMING ON THE FOG AND INTENSITY. KIWD MAY END UP BEING
THE HIGHEST WITH VERY LIGHT AND UNFAVORABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND LIKELY LIMITING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INFLUENCING KCMX AND HAVE NOT WENT AS LOW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF
THE MOS. AS FOR KSAW...THINK THEY HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO FALL
TO LIFR BASED OFF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPOING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE FOG
TO BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASE AND SOME MID
CLOUDS TO APPROACH TOWARDS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RAP 925-700MB LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS A DECENT
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL AXIS...
AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE RAP
SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 10Z THEN
SINK SOUTHEAST AND MAINLY JUST IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF INDICATE A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION OF THINGS... WITH ACTIVITY DROPPING A BIT SOUTH AFTER 10Z
OR SO. HOWEVER... THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN/T LOOK TO DROP TOO MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT... SO ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
GET SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO THIS MORNING... IT DOESN/T LOOK
TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT... THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY WORK TO GENERATE SOME PCPN WITH A SURFACE WAVE TO OUR
NORTH ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HELP GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PCPN
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS... AND
IT WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE UPPER WAVE. SO... GENERALLY PUSHED POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY... THEN LIFTED CHANCES NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEM EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS WE FINALLY SEE SEE
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH THE THUNDER THREAT BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALSO REMAINS A PROBLEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS MAY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY. THEN COOLER...DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WE SHOULD
SEE A GENERAL CLEARING SKY WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
OFF TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AND SEE IF DEWPOINTS
DROP FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE DRIER HUMIDITY AND
WINDS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE
HIGH DROPS OVER THE AREA. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INITIAL WAA
SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LLJ INCREASING TO THE WEST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPILLS INTO FAR
WESTERN MN LATE. THEN THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL WORK
INTO WESTERN AREAS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WE DID REMOVE
THE THUNDER THREAT FARTHER TO THE EAST.
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES THE THE AREA. THE GFS
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND WILL LIKELY TREND THAT WAY FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THE
COOLER/CLOUDY AREA OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA. IT STILL APPEARS IT
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
TWO CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST IS SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW MN THROUGH NE WI
WHILE THE SECOND IS DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. VARIOUS 12Z WRF SOLUTIONS WOULD POINT TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE IA/MN
BORDER ON EASTWARD INTO WI. THIS WOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF KEAU WITH
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS INDICATED BETWEEN KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU. LATEST
WRF TRENDS HAVE ALSO BACKED AWAY FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE OF A RISK OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR KEAU WHERE A 1/4SM FG IS NOW IN PLACE FROM 09Z-13Z.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY MORNING FROM KAXN TO
KRWF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL APPROACH 20 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. INCREASING NW WINDS FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND SE OF THE AIRFIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE IN THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NGT...VFR. NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. NW WIND LESS THAN 10KTS BECOMING VRBL LESS THAN 5KTS.
WED-THU...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SE WIND 10-20 KTS BECOMING SW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF MIDDAY SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE ERN
CONUS MON NIGHT AS DEEP RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CORE OF
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...AND SFC LOW SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TUE. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO ENTER OUR CWFA AT THAT TIME...MOVING
OUT TUE EVENING. WE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE BETTER FORCING THOUGH
SOME DPVA IS PROGGED AS THE AXIS OF THE BROAD TROUGH PASSES.
FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MURKY...SO PRECIP
CHANCES MOSTLY RESULT FROM DECENT PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY. CAPE
PROFILES ARE SKINNY ON PROG SOUNDINGS AND DEEP SATURATION IS
INITIALLY EVIDENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO PROMPT LITTLE
CONCERN...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRYING RAPIDLY OCCURS
ABV 700 MB. THIS OCCURS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WHEN SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT. THUS SOME OF THE LATER STORM ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A MICROBURST AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS PLAINS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ERN US...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SLOWLY IN THE
MTNS WHERE A VERY SHALLOW SFC BASED MOIST LAYER REMAINS IN NW FLOW.
BRISK WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AT THAT TIME BUT THESE
SUBSIDE TOWARD DAWN WED. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU
WED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS THE FA BUT LACKING MOISTURE
ANYWAY. THICKNESSES DO DROP A BIT FOR WED...RETURNING TEMPS TO AROUND
NORMAL DESPITE PRIME INSOLATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE HIGH DIVING OUT OF ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP
RETURN FLOW. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
PARENT SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SOURCE REGIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS INDICATIVE OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO DIAL IN ON STORM MODES AND SPECIFIC TIMING/INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PW VALUES APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES LEADING TO MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CAPE PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...CAPPED POPS AT HIGH
END CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS/MIDLANDS BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY LEADING
TO A DRY FCST UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME POPS SLOWLY RAMP
UP ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST ZONES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DESPITE THE FROPA FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRATO-CU WITH BASES OF 5-6KFT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE KCLT AIRFIELD FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAY. THE NAM BRINGS THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE THE AIRFIELD BY 21 UTC AND
KEEPS THEM IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE GFS AND RUC ARE MUCH DRIER AND
NEVER BRING THE CLOUDS THAT FAR WEST. THE NAM LLVL RH FIELDS ALREADY
LOOK OVERDONE...AND I/VE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF FEW060 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN HORIZON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS INDICATED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...I DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FOG AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND...AS LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA...ONLY THE FAR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ANY CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING. THE NAM IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CLOUDS INTO THE WRN
NC PIEDMONT...BUT AS THE GFS AND RUC DO NOT DO THIS...I/VE GONE WITH
A SKY FORECAST CLOSER TO THE DRIER MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST IN MTN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR
AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA FROM
SEEING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOL...BUT THEY SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST OVER ALL BUT SOME OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
WEAKENS. ANTICIPATE MAXES TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS MON NIGHT AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BUBBLE UP IN PIEDMONT SECTIONS TO SUPPORT PRE/FRONTAL AFTN TSRA
TUE...BUT SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY TUE EVENING...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIGHER RIDGE TOPS EARLY WED
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO FROST OR FREEZE IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SHARP UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF...WHICH WILL
LIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO ALLOW AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW ATOP THE
CWFA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THRU
THE CWFA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTBY/SHEAR AND FORCING TO
WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON
TUESDAY. STILL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND THAT FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THE SEVERE WX THREAT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT SHUD PUSH THRU THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WX. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER
THAN TUESDAY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
THEN TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRATO-CU WITH BASES OF 5-6KFT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY APPROACHING THE KCLT AIRFIELD FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAY. THE NAM BRINGS THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE THE AIRFIELD BY 21 UTC AND
KEEPS THEM IN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE GFS AND RUC ARE MUCH DRIER AND
NEVER BRING THE CLOUDS THAT FAR WEST. THE NAM LLVL RH FIELDS ALREADY
LOOK OVERDONE...AND I/VE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF FEW060 TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN HORIZON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK MIXING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS INDICATED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...I DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FOG AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. A FAIRLY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH PIEDMONT THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED ON
TUE...WITH DRYING RETURNING MID WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...
VIS SAT SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
AND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING EASTWARD WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD. A FEW
RETURNS HAVE SHOWED UP ON RADAR OVER PARMER COUNTY WHICH IS RIGHT IN
LINE WITH THIS CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE /DRY/ LINE AS SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF. THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST
MOVES CLOSER. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS PUSHING IN AND IS INCREASING OUR LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED SKIES ARE
HELPING AID SOME SURFACE HEATING IN TURN HELPING TO SLOWLY ERODE
WHAT CAP IS LEFT. AS CLEARER SKIES MOVE EASTWARD THIS SHOULD HELP
WARM THE SURFACE MORE TO THE POINT OF FULL CAP EROSION. THIS WILL
HELP FIRE CONVECTION MORE QUICKLY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTWARD. WHILE CAPE THERMO
PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND WINDS...0-6KM SHEAR IS
HIGH END MARGINAL TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND 35 KTS ALONG THE I27/HWY84 CORRIDOR. I HAVE KEPT
INHERITED POPS BEFORE 00Z WITH SVR MENTION AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO
50 POPS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIP/CONVECTION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE DRY
LINE/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID 70S TO 80S
TOMORROW AS CAA WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED DURING THE MORNING AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR MAKING WAY FOR SOLAR HEATING. ALDRICH
&&
.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS GO AROUND.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SOUTH BREEZES
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY TRANSITS WTX DOWNSTREAM OF A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX WITH THE EAST-WEST POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...AND
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NE ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER LARGE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LVL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN
HOLD ON TO LOW-LVL MOISTURE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT
AND SUN ACROSS ERN ZONES...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED POPS BELOW MENTION
FOR NOW. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY....TEMPS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 74 51 79 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
TULIA 51 76 50 80 55 / 30 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 53 78 51 81 56 / 20 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 54 80 54 82 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 55 82 56 81 60 / 20 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 55 78 55 82 61 / 10 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 54 79 56 83 60 / 10 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 58 82 56 82 57 / 50 10 0 0 0
SPUR 58 83 57 82 60 / 40 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 60 85 58 83 61 / 40 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WITH FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH
EAST OF KRST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KLSE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AND END
PRECIP THREAT. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...AND LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT WONT TAKE TOO MUCH TO REIGNITE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN MORE SO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...REINFORCING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT. EXPECTING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUES BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO...THEN
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG/BR AT KRST AND POSSIBLY KLSE...AND HAVE
REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR...BUT COULD SEE 1-2SM AT TIMES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH