Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/19/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...INCREASED MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL END UP NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES...HOWEVER QUICKLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR IMPERIAL CA AT 03Z
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MOISTURE UP A BIT FROM HIGHER PRECIP
WATER ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOST DYNAMICS/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOUTHEAST AZ TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AZ SOUTHEAST
CORNER. THEREFORE THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH CURVATURE EFFECTS OF
THE TROF SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING
PHOENIX. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE UNDER THE STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE FIELDS
FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK OK FOR NOW. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...118 PM MST...
THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SINCE THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW CENTER RIGHT OVER SAN
DIEGO. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE...MAINLY ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC LOW STRUCTURE WITH A
BAROCLINIC LEAF STRETCHING FROM SONORA MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA. BROAD ASCENT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF ARIZONA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE NORTH OF
AN UPPER JET MAX NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AS WELL AS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. LATE THIS MORNING...A SMALL
CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PIMA COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND A KINK SEEN IN THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD. FOR THE MOST PART...ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE DUE TO DRY AIR BELOW 700MB AS SHOWN BY
AREA THE INVERTED V STRUCTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS NEAR 40MPH ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
THAT MOVED ACROSS PHOENIX AND ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST.
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER...COOLER MID LEVELS AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES REPRESENT A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH MAY
GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE
HI-RES HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOWED CELLS BLOSSOMING BY
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...BUT UPDATED
MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE. STILL THINKING 10-15 POPS IN
THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS A GOOD BET...BUT
WITH THE FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH CATEGORY.
TONIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD CORE ALOFT PULLS TO THE
EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PV ANOMALY
AS THE BULK OF THE ENTIRE WAVE LIFTS AND EJECTS OVER ARIZONA. DURING
THIS TRANSITION...RENEWED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASCENT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF UVV/SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH
INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. SFC HEATING UNDER
THE COLD CORE DURING THE DAY MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG AND LI/S AOB -2)...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONCEPTUALLY AND EVIDENTIALLY THROUGH MODEL
OUTPUT...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POINTS EAST OF
PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY REBUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS AOA 582DM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT AND TRENDS KEEP THE
VAST MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM CNTRL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE FORWARD SPEED AND ARRIVAL INTO THE WRN
CONUS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE DELAYED THE LOCAL ONSET OF
FROPA AND COOLING TO BEYOND TUESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST PROLONGED AND FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS.
WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE TEMPERED BACK INTO A 570-576DM RANGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...FEEL THE NET
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO KEEPING DAILY
READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
DAY 5-8 RANGE...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 17Z SAT...BKN CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER.
LIGHT EAST WIND UNDER 9 KNOTS. FROM 17Z SAT TO 23Z SAT...A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS PERIOD. A
CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED. LIGHT WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR
SHOWERS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 07Z SAT...SCT TO BKN CLDS AOA 12 THSD AGL. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FROM 07Z SAT TO 23Z SAT...SCT CLDS
BASED NEAR 12 THSD AGL. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10
KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PRESENTING AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT. CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/KUHLMAN/MO
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
905 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON THURSDAY. THEN...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
IMPACTS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF BRINGING
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...11-4U SAT IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING TOWARDS THE COAST. MESO
MODELS SHOW BL MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST
WHERE THE RAP SHOWS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER 09Z...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH CLEARING MAY
OCCUR. SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LESS HIGH CLOUDS OVER CWA THIS
EVENING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL MAKE THREAT OF FROST POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE
RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FG AND
INCREASE SKY COVER OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST WHILE
REDUCING SKY COVER INLAND THROUGH THU MORNING. UPDATED AVIATION
AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND WILL PLAGUE THE COAST N OF CAPE MENDO THROUGH THE NIGHT. MESO
MODELS SHOW WINDS ALONG THE COAST VARYING BETWEEN ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE MAKING FOR A TRICKY FCST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST WITH PERIODS OF VFR AS WINDS SHIFT
OFFSHORE. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. /KENNEDY
&&
.MARINE...NEAR GALE TO GALES CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN WATERS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...ELECTED TO
ALLOW GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE AND HOISTED A SCA THROUGH THU
MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND GENERATES
ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. /KENNEDY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 430 PM PDT...
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUD COVER ALOFT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY.
MOST RAIN WILL BE RESTRICTED NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.10" OR LESS AND PERHAPS UP TO 0.25" IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
DEL NORTE COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AGAIN, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
A MORE PROMINENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS
SOUTHWARD. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A POOR JOB HANDLING
SHORTWAVES IN THE EXTENDED, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SINCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOOLS HAVE SIGNALED A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN ARRIVAL
TIME OF THIS SYSTEM BUT PAST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. AS A RESULT, STARTING ON
MONDAY POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM AN ALL MODEL BLEND WITH THE CAP
UP IN 50 THE PERCENT RANGE AND ABOVE CLIMO POPS FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST.KML
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THU FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THU FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
841 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...ISSUED 0845 PM FRI APR 10 2014
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...BUT IT APPEARS NORTHERLY FLOW ON
PLAINS WILL DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. RAP HAS
WELL ESTABLISHED LOW NEAR KANSAS BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL BRING NLY WINDS IN AROUND SUNRISE.
WILL KEEP VCSH...AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH HIGH BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK INTO THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPES OF
AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS PARK COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AT THIS TIME...NO CONVECTION INDICATED ON
RADAR. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. DRY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
PARK...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ON SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE MORNING EDGING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. FAIRLY MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHANCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE LIMITED
INITIALLY...BUT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH VALUES AROUND 250
J/KG BY THE EVENING. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AIRMASS
TO BE FAIRLY MILD SO SNOW LEVELS TO BE RATHER HIGH...AROUND 10000
FEET AGL. ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING...REACHING DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z. FRONT APPEARS TO
BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. UPSLOPE DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON
IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. AIRMASS
INITIALLY FAIRLY STABLE AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT...BUT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
SHOWING ONLY LIMITED CAPE...WITH VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. VALUES LESS
NORTH OF DENVER. SO BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHER SECTION OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY. POPS TO BE LOWER ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN DOUGLAS INTO ELBERT COUNTY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCE
BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. AIRMASS TO BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAT FRIDAY`S READINGS.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO SUFFER FROM
TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THUS SLOWER TROUGH MOVEMENT...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS THERE WITH
BEST LOW/MID LEVEL FOCUS STILL ADVERTISED IN THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BY SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
GENERALLY A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AND PARK
COUNTY.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL ACT TO CAP OFF ANY
CONVECTION BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE.
BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DRY AS A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
SOUTHWESTERLIES...BUT WINDS SHOULD STILL INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER FIRE DANGER. WILL ALSO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE...BUT CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CAPES ARE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG TOO.
WEDNESDAY MAY FEATURE HIGHER FIRE DANGER AS STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
OCCURS AND WINDS INCREASE IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
GREENUP OF FUELS OCCURRING FROM NOW THROUGH THAT TIME WHICH WILL
HELP OFFSET THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
MEANWHILE...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION GENERATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. AIRMASS LOOKS RATHER DRY AND STABLE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS...A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST AT KBJC. WINDS EXPECTING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRAINAGE PREVAILS BY 04Z. SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. SHOULD NOT AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AROUND 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. WINDS TO
THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AT KAPA AND KBJC WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
UPDATED LATEST TEMPS AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM NOW IS MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AM SEEING SOME BANDED PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
SHRA...DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DEWPOINTS STILL PRETTY LOW OVER
THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP COOL THINGS OFF THIS EVE AS WET BULB
IS REACHED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING ITS PEAK FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.
A COUPLE OF RECENT TRENDS ARE MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN IT
HAD BEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO MINUS
5 OR 6 AS OPPOSED TO THE MINUS 10 OR LOWER FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THIS IS POINTING AT THE SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT. BUT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6K
FEET...EXCEPT MAYBE ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE A PARTICULAR CHALLENGE SINCE
ELEVATIONS FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6000-
6500 FOOT RANGE. SO...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THIS EVE COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WET PAVEMENT
AND A FEW INCHES OF SLUSH. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE MIDDLE ROAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION
FOR THE EARLY EVE. BUT...HIGHER TRRN TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO
SPANISH PEAKS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW...MORE THAN SIX INCHES
FOR SOME AREAS.
OTHER ISSUE IS THE RECENT TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS FALLING
OVER THE SRN ZONES...THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF...FOR EXAMPLE...KEEP
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PIKES PK REGION. THE NAM
AND RUC..LOWER RES...KEEP HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS SO FAR...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP WITH AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMS FOR PIKES
PEAK...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SRN AND ERN SIDES WILL GET
A BIT MORE THIS EVE. MODELS ARE HITTING THE SRN SANGRES AND HIGHER
WETS PRETTY HARD THROUGH 06-08Z TONIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED UPGRADING
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT SINCE THE LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER
GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO BE PRETTY HIGH UP AND SPOTTY. SO...ADVISORIES
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM TRENDS
PRETTY CAREFULLY.
WILL SEE THE SYSTEM CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY FROM N TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. BALANCE OF
THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CLOSED LOW MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC...ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS AN OPEN
TROF. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND
A COLD FRONT...THOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT COOL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z. GFS IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A JUST A TAD MOISTER. EITHER
WAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AGAIN...PROBABLY AROUND
9.5-10KFT...SO BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN
SCARS CLOSELY FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO. FOR NOW
THOUGH...THINK THAT GFS PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE...AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AS MODEL CAPE
VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS HIGHER CAPE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST.
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY...SO AFTER
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK A LITTLE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS OF FUELS...MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS DAY. OTHERWISE...DRY LINE WILL BE LURKING NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...SEEM TO SUGGEST
A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND LESS OF A PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE DRYLINE JUST TO
OUR EAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR WED AS GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
EC DOES NOT HAVE...SO JURY IS STILL OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
KALS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08-10Z TONIGHT WITH REDUCED VIS
AND CIGS TO MVFR TO IFR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
AREA RUNWAYS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
KCOS...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10-12Z TONIGHT
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
KPUB...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE...AND PERHAPS MIX WITH SNOW
THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH REDUCED CIGS TO NEAR MVFR. EXPECT RAIN AND
SNOW TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079>082-087-088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...UPSTREAM RADAR DEPICTS A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
KROC-KART-KMSS WITH A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AS NOTED IN
UPSTREAM METARS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LOW WITH
CEILINGS ABOVE 5K FEET. HRRR REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH FURTHER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NORTH OF KALB TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO NO
CHANGES TO THE POPS/WX AT THIS TIME AND JUST A MINOR TWEAK TO THE
ONGOING HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR. ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE. THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
00Z/SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY CLOUD COVER WITH JUST A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CIGS
WITH INCREASING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO KPSF.
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE 930 PM UPDATE...FEW CHANGES MADE. THE FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, CUTTING THROUGH WESTERN PA UP TO
SYRACUSE, NY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT, IT IS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. THUS, DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT.
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.
NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.
THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK. MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.
EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.
NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.
THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK. MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 00Z TAFS.
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A
SMALL RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z, BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE REMOTE SO HAVE NOT
MENTIONED IT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 5 KT, AND MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES AS THE GENERAL
DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY.
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE COAST, INCLUDING KACY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.
EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.
A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.
THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.
REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST. MVFR HAS ALREADY REACHED KACY.
ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR
FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED.
A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.
THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
THE SPREADING UNCERTAINTY OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WIND COUPLED WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DID NOT MAKE THE FROST/FREEZE DECISION AN EASY OR
CONFIDENT ONE. PLEASE CHECK FOR FURTHER UPDATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR.
FARTHER WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.
EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.
REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.
ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-015-019.
DE...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
100 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE MAINLY FOR AN UPWARD A SKY COVER ADJUSTMENT EAST. WE
FOUND THAT THE RAP IS HANDLING THE 925MB MOISTURE THE BEST. WRF-
NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK BETTER THAN THE SOME OF THE PLAN
VIEW MODEL MASS FIELDS. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME DRYING WITH MIXING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PREDICTED CLOUDS ROLL IN AT NIGHT.
TEMPS IRONICALLY ARE RUNNING TOO LOW VS PREDICTIONS IN SUNNIER
LOCALES FAR NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?
OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WITH 18Z TAFS MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER THE FARTHER WEST OUR TAF SITES ARE.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING A VFR STRATOCU
CIG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE BATTLED BY SOME
MIXING AND DRY AIR. FROM KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD WE ARE
EXPECTING A VFR CIG AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH KACY MIGHT BECOME MVFR. FARTHER
WEST NO CIG EXPECTED.
EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND
20 KTS FROM THE KPHL AREA TERMINALS EASTWARD.
REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS ARRIVING AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE EAST.
ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1142 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BUT STILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE MAINLY FOR AN UPWARD A SKY COVER ADJUSTMENT EAST. WE
FOUND THAT THE RAP IS HANDLING THE 925MB MOISTURE THE BEST. WRF-
NMMB FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK BETTER THAN THE SOME OF THE PLAN
VIEW MODEL MASS FIELDS. THEY BOTH SHOW SOME DRYING WITH MIXING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PREDICTED CLOUDS ROLL IN AT NIGHT.
TEMPS IRONICALLY ARE RUNNING TOO LOW VS PREDICTIONS IN SUNNIER
LOCALES FAR NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE.
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THIS DAY SHOULD BE LOADED WITH SUNSHINE OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE E-NE GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
THE FCST BASIS WAS A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHTS FCST WAS ALSO A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.
THAT IN MIND...THE FCST TEMPS ARE GENERALLY FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE.
COLLABORATING THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A FREEZE OR A FROST...HAVE
BLENDED THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HEADLINE WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HERE
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA...THINK ODDS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
TONIGHT THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SO A FROST APPEARS
MORE LIKELY FROM MY VIEW IN OUR AREA...RATHER THAN A FREEZE BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE GUIDANCE IS 2 DEGREES TOO WARM?
OTHERWISE THE ONSHORE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING AND BECOME LIGHT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OR HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND
LOCKED INTO PORTIONS OF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DEVELOP
NWD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NJ. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN PULLING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; ONE BEING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE OTHER AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WE EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WE REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON THE VERY FAR NORTHERN EDGE COULD EXTEND ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL MOISTURE IS RATHER
SHALLOW, SO IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE, SO WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RAIN IN THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
SO WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WE NOW
EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY
SO THAT IT WOULDN`T HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA ANYMORE. THIS HIGH
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AGAIN INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE
GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES THEN 3500-4000 FT MIDDAY.
MEANWHILE 3000 SCTVBKN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN NJ AND DE COAST MAY
BE PREDOMINANT JUST SOUTH OF KACY. CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS A BIT
BELOW AVG. WIND E-NE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BETWEEN 15-21Z.
TONIGHT...PROBABLY VFR TO START BUT MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE OR
POSSIBLE EVEN SPOTTY IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY NJ. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBY BELOW AVG.
OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AND WINDS/SEAS TO
BUILD A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
ADDED LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA PER EXPECTED WIND IMPACT AT THE BAY
ENTRANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ060-101>103-106.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ012-013-015-017>022-027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1031 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND WRF MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS THE
LATEST NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO LATE TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TONIGHT...TRENDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD STILL REDEVELOP
AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS IS DIMINISHING THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT DROPPING A FEW MORE
DEGREES INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE
CENTER REACHING THE ATLC OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST
WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT
LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR
SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE EVENING EXPECTED WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN ANY REDEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER 08Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN NEXT SET
OF TAF ISSUANCES.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET OFFSHORE. WILL
EXPAND SCA FOR THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTEND TIME THROUGH
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.
SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AVIATION...
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
85/AG
SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
BNB
AVIATION...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 84 63 81 / 50 30 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 87 67 82 / 50 40 0 0
MIAMI 74 86 68 83 / 50 40 0 0
NAPLES 71 84 61 82 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
..WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWARD
RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDFLOW AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AREA OF THE HIGH WAS PUSHING MARINE
STRATOCU ASHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 915MHZ VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER BEAR THIS OUT WITH EASTERLY 20 TO 25
KNOTS WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5000 FEET/APPROX
850MB. THE WINDS THEN MAKE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE WEST AT AROUND
6500 FEET AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO 10000 FEET WHICH IS THE
UPPER LIMIT OF THE 915MHZ RECORDING HEIGHTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WAS ANALYZED AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE.
WEATHER RADARS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
TONIGHT...MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS WERE INDICATING THAT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN INCH AND A HALF AND 1.9 INCHES
AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MOVING OVER THE
LOWER LAYER EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST CHANCE...30-50
PERCENT... OF OVERNIGHT RAINS.
FRIDAY...THE NEWLY FORMED WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE
LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING OVER
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDFLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTHERN AREAS TO 80 TO 90
PERCENT NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRIDAY
FORECAST AS COLDER...-10C TO -12C...MID LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
SOUTHERN AREAS TO LOW 80S NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE
COUNTIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING CLEARING CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MID AND UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT AREA. HIGHS RANGE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY TO THE MID 80S ON THE IN THE AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BRING COOLER
AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.
FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.
COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.
FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES SLOWLY UP
THE PENINSULA. PREVAILING VFR OVC FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CLEARS
AND WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PREVIOUS AVIATION
MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6NM OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 4 AND 7 FEET RESPECTIVELY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING THROUGH 4AM COASTAL ISSUANCE.
FRI...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE COASTAL WATERS COME
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WARM SECTOR DECREASES BUT EXPECT TO
HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER.
SAT-MON (MODIFIED)... COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN MARINE THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE
THE FL EAST COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO
7-10FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT
TO N AND NNE BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
WINDS SEAS MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 78 68 74 / 30 90 60 30
MCO 68 82 67 79 / 30 80 60 30
MLB 72 81 71 79 / 30 60 60 30
VRB 72 81 71 80 / 30 60 60 30
LEE 66 79 65 77 / 30 90 60 30
SFB 67 82 68 79 / 30 80 60 30
ORL 68 82 67 79 / 30 80 60 30
FPR 72 82 70 81 / 30 60 60 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)
THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
BNB
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 84 72 86 / 40 50 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 85 75 87 / 30 40 50 40
MIAMI 73 85 74 86 / 30 40 50 40
NAPLES 70 87 69 79 / 40 50 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
MORNING UPDATE...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NOW BEING ANALYZED AS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY APPROACHING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER
AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES WHERE THE AIR MASS WELL BE MORE MOIST
AND ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WOULD ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY.
MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM (J/KG) FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12C TO -14C RANGE BUT THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A LITTLE WARMING TO -10C TO 12C AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ADVECTS SLIGHT WARMER AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TAMPA AND
CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A WARM LAYER/WEAK CAP BETWEEN
700 AND 600MB THAT COULD HINDER STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
AREA TO THE NORTH. ANY CELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS REACHING HIGH
ENOUGH TO TAP THE COOLER AIR COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING ONE AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST TO WEST OFF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND INTO SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.
FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.
COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.
FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.
&&
.AVIATION...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING OVERTOP OF A RELATIVELY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED EAST TO WEST OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE HIGHLY VARIABLE CLOUD BASES. NOT STRAYING VERY
FAR FROM THE CURRENT MVFR TAFS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 113...114 AND 009 WERE RECORDING 4 TO
6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. BUOY 010 OUT
AT 120 MILES OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING 10 FOOT SEAS WITH A 7 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL. BOTH BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. CURRENT AFTERNOON
FORECAST OF WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 9 FOOT SEAS LOOKS GOOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES CONTINUES.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...KEEPING
WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WILL EASE GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH...VEERING WINDS
MORE EAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OFF THE TREASURE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DROP TO 15-20KTS OVER ALL
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE/6-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE
ADVISORY FOR SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...BUT SEAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO
INITIAL NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.
FRI-MON...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MARINE
THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 7-10FT OR A
LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NNE
BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS SEAS MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 68 78 64 / 20 50 80 60
MCO 79 67 82 66 / 20 50 80 60
MLB 79 71 81 69 / 50 40 70 60
VRB 79 72 81 70 / 50 40 70 60
LEE 78 66 79 61 / 20 50 80 60
SFB 78 67 82 64 / 20 50 80 60
ORL 79 68 82 65 / 20 50 80 60
FPR 80 70 82 72 / 60 40 70 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.
FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.
COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.
FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.
AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...KEEPING
WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WILL EASE GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH...VEERING WINDS
MORE EAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OFF THE TREASURE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DROP TO 15-20KTS OVER ALL
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.
WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE/6-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE
ADVISORY FOR SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...BUT SEAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO
INITIAL NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.
FRI-MON...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MARINE
THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 7-10FT OR A
LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NNE
BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS SEAS MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 68 78 64 / 20 50 80 60
MCO 79 67 82 66 / 20 50 80 60
MLB 79 71 81 69 / 50 40 70 60
VRB 79 72 81 70 / 50 40 70 60
LEE 78 66 79 61 / 20 50 80 60
SFB 78 67 82 64 / 20 50 80 60
ORL 79 68 82 65 / 20 50 80 60
FPR 80 70 82 72 / 60 40 70 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
108 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
PLACED FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...MAINLY YUMA COUNTY. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.
NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.
SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.
BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR A NORTON TO
TRIBUNE LINE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SBCAPE AXIS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KTS IS FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THOSE
PARAMETERS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED BY THAT TIME SO NOTHING SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 70.
UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO COLORADO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS DESPITE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL GET DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...DRY LINE WILL BE NEAR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE
NEARBY ON THURSDAY SO HARD TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE FAR EAST BY THAT
TIME. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL THEN NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
MORNING STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. STRATUS HAS CLEARED KMCK
AND SHOULD CLEAR KGLD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...
ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES.
FOR NOW...HAVE PLACED A SCT MVFR GROUP IN TAF FOR KGLD AND FEW
MVFR GROUP FOR KMCK. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW
AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
PLACED FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...MAINLY YUMA COUNTY. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.
NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.
SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.
BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.
MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.
WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
MORNING STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. STRATUS HAS CLEARED KMCK
AND SHOULD CLEAR KGLD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE...
ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES.
FOR NOW...HAVE PLACED A SCT MVFR GROUP IN TAF FOR KGLD AND FEW
MVFR GROUP FOR KMCK. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRATUS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW
AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
704 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
PLACED FOG IN FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...MAINLY YUMA COUNTY. FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.
NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.
SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.
BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.
MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.
WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENTLY IFR/NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH NO MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING ANYTHING
ANYWHERE CLOSE. SO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE WIND FIELD
IS LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE.
AT THIS TIME BY 18Z DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AND THOSE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT BOTH SITES WITH KGLD BEING GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
544 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.
NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.
SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.
BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.
MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.
WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS SINCE THE MODELS
HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE ABOUT THE CURRENT STRATUS FIELD IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENTLY IFR/NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK WITH NO MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING ANYTHING
ANYWHERE CLOSE. SO GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEEP THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING SINCE THE WIND FIELD
IS LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE.
AT THIS TIME BY 18Z DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AND THOSE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT BOTH SITES WITH KGLD BEING GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST CANADA WITH A RIDGE PUSHING IN AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS LEAVING A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...OVERALL THE MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR APART WOULD HAVE TO
GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ON
THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT STARTS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN END
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOKS
REASONABLE AND DID NOT ADJUST.
NEXT BUT MINOR CONCERN WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL LAST
THIS MORNING AND IF THAT WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE STRATUS WITH RAP DOING THE BEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO MAKE ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH PULLS OUT...SHOULD GET
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THAT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
UPPER JET IS NOT YET TO OUR EAST. DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION...
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND STUCK CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF SKY COVER CLEARS AS THE MODELS THINK AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS/PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS SHOULD GET AT LEAST BREEZY IN THE
WESTERN HALF MAYBE EVEN WINDY. NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY UP TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. MINS WILL BE
WARMER AND MAY NEED TO BE WARMED UP MORE FROM WHAT I HAVE THEM.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN/THROUGH IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW
FOR A GOOD WARMUP. TENDED TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. GRADIENT
AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ARE TIGHTER/LARGER THAN FOR TODAY SO WILL
DEFINITELY SEE A WINDY DAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD SAY WIND
SPEEDS WILL GET NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY AGAIN TO NOT ONLY INCREASE SPEEDS BUT
ALSO AT A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OR
REACHING THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT. NO UPPER JET IS CLOSE AND NO
LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. WITH WARM AIR AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE AREA. SINCE ONLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IT AND THE 06Z NAM PULLED
BACK FROM EARLIER SOLUTION...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG BUT THE DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LEADING TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE POSITION OF FEATURES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES WERE
SIDING MORE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVING AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW THE
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HANDLED THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AFFECTED HOW
FAST THEY MOVED IN THE FRONT WITH A SIMILAR CONSENSUS AS WHAT WAS
SHOWN FOR THE UPPER LEVELS. THE 06Z NAM SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 00Z
RUN AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLED THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOKED TO
BE HANDLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BETTER THAN
EVERYBODY ELSE.
SO DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES...SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST UPPER SOLUTION. SO THIS MEANT I PREFERRED
THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION FOR THE DAY. SO AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. IN ADDITION TO THAT...THE MODELS...DESPITE THE FRONT...TENDED
TO CAP THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF HAVING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CAP. SO BASED ON THE CAP...AND A FURTHER WEST FRONTAL POSITION...
I REDUCED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND PUT THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL POSITION WHERE THE BOUNDARY/BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AND WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. ALSO CLOUD COVER IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD INHIBIT HEATING AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS TENDED TO BE WARMER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DID NOT GO AS WARM AS I COULD DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER.
BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE
DEEPEST LIFT ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME AND THE DETERMINISTIC QPF
OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AGREE WITH THAT.
THE SOUTHEAST HALF LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. SO LEFT THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT ALONE. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE SLOW AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION SATURDAY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO
BORDER. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...STORMS WILL TURN FROM MOVING
NORTHEAST TO MOVING SOUTH...WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING RAINFALL TO COME TO AN
END.
MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AND NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE DRY
LINE STILL REMAINING NEAR THE KS/CO LINE...THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE LCLS TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL AS WELL. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FILL BY THEN. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NO RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FILLS.
WEDNESDAY A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DRY LINE IS PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TUESDAY SO A THE DRY FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND EXTEND EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 11Z AND AFTER 15Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST (WHERE CIGS CURRENTLY MVFR). A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT EXITING THE AREA BEFORE
18Z THURSDAY. EAST WINDS AROUND 6KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 11Z THURSDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE 08Z AND AFTER 12Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS MOVES
DOWN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AS KGLD.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE TO BECOME EASTERLY BY
14Z THEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1033 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE NEAR COAST CREATING CONVECTION OVER GULF...WITH SHOWERS
MOVG NEWD ONSHORE...BUT WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...AS SEEN ON 12Z LCH RAOB. ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS TO FCST FOR
THIS AFTN...TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS TRYING TO
WORK THEIR WAY FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY
CLIMBING DESPITE THICKENING MID LVL CLOUDINESS...SO FOR NOW...WILL STILL
EXPECT AFTN TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM DESPITE THE REPEATED RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SE CO AND ANOTHER JUST SE OF THE BIG
BEND OF TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SRN WAVE SHOULD
MOVE WELL S OF THE CWA AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED MORE
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BREAKS OUT SOME
QPF ACROSS DEEP E TX LATER THIS MORNING BUT NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE REALLY PICKING UP ON THIS. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
KEEP THE DAYTIME HRS DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE CO SHORTWAVE DIVES SE TOWARDS THE
CWA AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE TX TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE QUITE MEAGER SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD MOVE E BY SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TRANSITION
TO SWLY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES
APPROACHES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE W. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING RAIN IN THE AREA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE CWA SO HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS. STILL...A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 53 76 57 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
MLU 71 54 74 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
DEQ 70 46 77 52 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
TXK 70 51 75 55 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
ELD 70 50 75 54 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
TYR 70 54 75 57 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
GGG 70 53 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
LFK 71 54 78 57 80 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
418 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM DESPITE THE REPEATED RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SE CO AND ANOTHER JUST SE OF THE BIG
BEND OF TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SRN WAVE SHOULD
MOVE WELL S OF THE CWA AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED MORE
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BREAKS OUT SOME
QPF ACROSS DEEP E TX LATER THIS MORNING BUT NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE REALLY PICKING UP ON THIS. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
KEEP THE DAYTIME HRS DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE CO SHORTWAVE DIVES SE TOWARDS THE
CWA AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE TX TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE QUITE MEAGER SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD MOVE E BY SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TRANSITION
TO SWLY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES
APPROACHES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE W. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING RAIN IN THE AREA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE CWA SO HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS. STILL...A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 53 76 57 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
MLU 71 54 74 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
DEQ 70 46 77 52 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
TXK 70 51 75 55 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
ELD 70 50 75 54 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
TYR 70 54 75 57 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
GGG 70 53 75 56 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
LFK 71 54 78 57 80 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING EAST NEAR LA
CROSSE, WI. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN TODAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN BLUSTERY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALLOWS THEM TO SUBSIDE SOME. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TOUGH PART OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD INCLUDES PREDICTING THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK
TODAY...AND THE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY CONSIDERING ALL THE FRESH
SNOW COVER AND THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS. THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN...AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...WHILE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM MOST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SNOW PACK...BUT
DIDN`T GO TOO CRAZY WITH THAT BECAUSE IT IS MID APRIL AND DEEP
MIXING CAN STILL OCCUR IN THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS BECOME CALM THIS
EVENING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MN MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MN. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THE MOST
RECENT NAM NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...BUT THEY COULD BE REMOVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE EXTENSIVE IN STRONG WAA ENVIRONMENT...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...WILL
BRING A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT SOME 50S NEAR
THE IOWA BORDER DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT CAN LIFT DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH TO THE SOUTH INTO THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN PLAINS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCH OF
THE ENERGY BEING DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH. NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED
ABOUT SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE BEST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. IF SOME SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH...HIGHS WILL REACH THE
60S WHICH COULD TAP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL LINGER NEAR THIS FRONT ACROSS SERN MN AND WRN WI. THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IN MUCH
OF MN WILL BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S OR LOW 70S.
THERMAL RIDGING ARRIVES MONDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE +14
TO +16C RANGE. MIXING TO 850 MB WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS
THERMAL RIDGING AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID
WEEK...THE WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT AND WINDS WILL BACK
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL MARK A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPS
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY MIDWEEK...PARTICULARLY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TRY TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE BY
THURSDAY PENDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...WHICH BEARS WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
WE`LL STILL SEE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG
WILL THE LOW STRATUS LINGER...WHICH IS A TOUGH FORECAST AS I
BELIEVE THE HI-RES MODELS ARE BEING TOO PESSIMISTIC IN THIS CASE.
SO...EXPECTING CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RAISE THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE WARMS...AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING UNDER THE
RIDGE.
KMSP...GOING AGAINST THE RAP WHICH IS PESSIMISTIC IN SCATTERING
CLOUDS OUT AS IT WANTS TO HOLD ON TO THE STRATUS UNTIL THIS
EVENING. THINKING DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS FASTER (BY THE AFTERNOON).
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR FRI NIGHT WITH -RA. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR WITH -RA. WINDS ESE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NNE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ025-
027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ015-016.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
652 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
A weak cold front will move into the area today and could serve as
the focus for scattered light rain showers during the afternoon
and evening. Convergence along the front is not very impressive
and the low levels are somewhat dry, but the combination of
increasing large scale ascent ahead of an approaching vort max
along with the presence of a surface boundary merits slight chance
to chance PoPs.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
For the last 4 nights in a row, no two consecutive 00z runs of the
ECMWF/GFS/GEM have had the same solution for upcoming frontal
systems, and there has also been a fair amount of variability
between models regarding the location of important features such as
upper vorticity maxima and surface boundaries. The latest runs keep
a strong vort max and its surface low up near the US/Canada border
on Fri night and Sat, therefore precipitation is no longer expected
with this system across the LSX CWA. The dominant feature for
Fri-Sat now appears to be ridging. Winds should eventually turn
southerly, bringing warmer air into the region for Sat and
reinforcing a baroclinic zone extending from the US/Canada system
as it starts to occlude. A broad trough moving through the desert
southwest could bring precipitation to the area on Sun/Mon. Chance
PoPs remain an acceptable compromise in light of the model
uncertainty. Confidence remains low in the forecast for this
weekend and beyond.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014
Weak cold front currently on the door step of KCOU and KUIN will
drift east today, and not reach the STL metro area until 21-00z
time frame. Post frontal band of MVFR SC with bases 1-2kft has
worked into northern Missouri, and over the last few hours higher
clouds have obscured their movement on satellite imagery. However,
surface ob trends as well as RUC low level RH progs suggest that
this cloud deck will reach KUIN shortly, and then dissipate by
mid-late morning. With this expected trend, cloud deck should
remain n of KCOU, and not threaten STL area. Otherwise, cloud
trends today and into this evening should be dominated by a
thickening mid deck with bases aoa 5kft. We are expecting a few
post frontal showers, but given the hit and miss coverage that is
anticipated have not included in TAFS at this time.
Specifics for KSTL: Weak cold front currently over mid MO not
expected to reach the area until the 21-23z time frame, with winds
shifting slowly to the northwest once fropa occurs. Otherwise,
looking for a gradual increase in mid clouds over the area, with
bases remaining aoa 5kft. A few showers are possible in the
evening, but as mentioned in the primary aviation discussion have
omitted from this TAF set due to the spotty nature of the precip.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS FROM SHOWERS. VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM MAY PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. MORE WETTING SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL LOW ON IMPACTING
TERMINAL SITES. CURRENT THINKING VCSH AT KGUP AND KFMN...BUT MAY
AMEND LATER AS SHOWERS BETTER DEVELOP. MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS SPREADING FARTHER E NEAR KABQ AND KSAF TONIGHT...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER SE NM...SO HAVE PREVAILING AT KROW WITH TIMING THE
BIGGEST UNKNOWN. A LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. WENT WITH VCSH FOR MOST SITES SATURDAY AFTN ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING
AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE
SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST CIRA BLENDED PWAT LOOP INDICATES A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE
DESERT SW UNDER STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TODAY. PCT OF NORMAL VALUES
IN THIS MOIST PLUME HAVE INCREASED TO BTWN 100-150 PCT OF NORMAL
WITH POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 200 PCT. SATELLITE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 12Z-18Z GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOIST
INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 16Z HRRR WAS VERY
BULLISH ON DEVELOPING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/STORMS OVER THE SW MTS
THIS EVENING THEN SLIDING NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD INTO SAN JUAN
COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER BULLSEYE FROM LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES INTO
THE SE PLAINS. TRENDED POPS UP FOR THESE AREAS BUT VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL BATTLE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
TOP DOWN EFFECTS TAKE OVER.
MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SO FAR THIS
SPRING SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIFTED INDICES MAY
AVERAGE -2 TO -3C WTIH CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. ALSO RAISED POP VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD IN LINE WITH HPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF GUIDANCE. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONGER
FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE SE PLAINS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MAX TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING AND DRY AIR
SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEFINITELY WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS FROM DRY STORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SINCE THE WINDS LOOK UGLY FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION THEREAFTER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING SLOW TO APPROACH STATE BUT LOOK FOR IT LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WETTING STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY ALTHOUGH DRIER. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR A MULTI DAY WIND EVENT STARTING TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY WHICH MEANS
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A DOOZY WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RH COMBINED WITH REALLY STRONG
WIND AREAWIDE. POST COLD FRONTAL CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY
WITH RESIDUAL STRONG WIND. STRONG WIND/LOW RH ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF THURSDAY.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE
HIGHER CIRRUS HAS KEPT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING BUT
THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY DRIER WILL IMPACT THE WEST. CANT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES ADDITIONAL JUICE
WILL FUEL WETTER SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT THE BEST
RESULTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 STAND TO BENEFIT THE MOST IN TERMS OF SOME WETTING
MOISTURE OR GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL BE
FAIRLY JUICY MOST OF THE DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH ON SATURDAY. STORM MOTION DOEST APPEAR TO BE
ALL THAT FAST ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST/EAST QUICKER THAN THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY.
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME DRYING FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE INTO SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
PERHAPS SOME COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL WAVE INDUCED LIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY
WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST...SPECIFICALLY NORTHEAST.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR SOME RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. DRIER AIR WOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS. PERHAPS SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION BUT A
SIMILAR IDEA STANDS. INCREASES IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY.
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRADITIONAL OR
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE
QUITE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE HERKY JERKY OR WIDE GUST SPREAD LIKE
WINDS ON TUESDAY. POST COLD FRONTAL STRONG WINDS WOULD REMAIN ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAINES AND NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MIGHT BE A LIMITER IN TERMS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IN THE COMING DAYS...CAN SEE A WATCH BEING
ISSUED FOR THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AN AREAWIDE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS MULTI DAY EVENT ALTHOUGH
HAINES/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL MOST LIKELY FLUCTUATE SOME DUE TO
SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER CAVEAT IN TERMS OF
TUESDAY AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PRECEDING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1123 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...KLTX AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ILLUSTRATE
THE RAIN COMPLETELY BLANKETING THE ILM CWA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE FA...WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG AND HORRY COUNTIES. THE SFC
COASTAL TROF LIES NE-SW JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM
COASTAL CWA. THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE MENTIONED ILM CWA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL TROF THAT
PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS TROF AND THEN ONSHORE WHERE
INSTABILITY LACKED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...THIS
CONVECTIVE PCPN TRANSITIONED INTO STRATIFORM MODERATE TO POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH ALL THIS SAID...LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
HIGH TIDE LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
VIA CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY
CHS...WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE ILM CWA. IT IS
PROGGED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH THE SAT PRE-DAWN HOURS. AS A RESULT...
HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
FOR DOWNTOWN ILM AND PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH OF SNOWS CUT
RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING RAINFALL COINCIDING
WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. HOWEVER...LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID
...LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE MUCH LATER THEN THE HIGH
TIDE OCCURRENCE LATE THIS EVENING.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE MASSAGING NEEDED TO
THE DOWNSIDE. VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA...A NE-ENE 30 TO 40 KT WIND WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY GET CARRIED TO
THE SFC AS WIND GUSTS OR BY FURTHER INCREASING SUSTAINED VALUES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS UPWARDS ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONSHORE. WITH THE
COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE 40S THE FURTHER INLAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST.
DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE
SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD IS ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...BEGINNING WITH KFLO...
KMYR AND KCRE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD...
KILM/KLBT SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 06Z. EXPECT CONSTANT -RA/RA TONIGHT
WITH TEMPO +RA LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTN...MOST LIKELY
AT KFLO/KLBT IF IT OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND ITS WARM FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF PM FRIDAY...NE-ENE WINDS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE 40+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A NE WIND AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
STRONGLY WORDED SCA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL HAVE TO ONCE AGAIN
WATCH FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE GALES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE WITH SEAS
APPROACHING 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
ALSO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 7 SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25
KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME
6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
901 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...KLTX AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS
ILLUSTRATE THE RAIN HAVING FINALLY MADE ITS WAY NORTHWARD AND NOW
COMPLETELY BLANKETS THE ILM CWA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
HIGH TIDE LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
VIA CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY
CHS...WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TO THE ILM CWA. IT IS
PROGGED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE ILM CWA DURING
THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS. AS A RESULT...HAVE REFRAINED
FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR DOWNTOWN
ILM AND PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH OF SNOWS CUT RIDGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID...LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE MUCH LATER THAN HIDE TIDE LATE THIS
EVENING.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE MASSAGING NEEDED TO
THE DOWNSIDE. VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA...A NE-ENE 30 TO 40 KT WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE DECK OVERNIGHT
THRU SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY GET CARRIED TO THE SFC AS
WIND GUSTS OR BY FURTHER INCREASING SUSTAINED VALUES. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS UPWARDS ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONSHORE. WITH THE
COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE 40S THE FURTHER INLAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN
LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST.
DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE
SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD IS ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...BEGINNING WITH KFLO...
KMYR AND KCRE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD...
KILM/KLBT SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 06Z. EXPECT CONSTANT -RA/RA TONIGHT
WITH TEMPO +RA LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTN...MOST LIKELY
AT KFLO/KLBT IF IT OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND ITS WARM FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM FRIDAY...NE-ENE WINDS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE 40+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A NE WIND AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
STRONGLY WORDED SCA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL HAVE TO ONCE AGAIN
WATCH FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE GALES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE WITH SEAS
APPROACHING 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR...AND ALSO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 7
SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25
KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME
6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
207 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...
PRESSURE READINGS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG 1036MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND REACHES DOWN THE EAST
COAST. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZE AND FROST. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN SOME SPOTS...BUT THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING A LIGHT WIND STIRRING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS DECOUPLE BY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN A BIT OVER EASTERN NC BY 09Z IN
RESPONSE TO A WESTWARD MIGRATING INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE...AND THE
RATE AT WHICH TEMPS FALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL SLOW AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. COULD ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AND
THE FROST SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE AS FORECAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
STRATO CU OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. -SMITH
THURSDAY...CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
LONG NE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT A SHALLOW THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...RESULTING IN A SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LAYER TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES
IF EVEN THAT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL THOUGH SOME
RECOVERY COMPARED TO TODAY ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES
PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 20M WARMT THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY /...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY....SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
PARENT HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN
MARITIME DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...PRESENCE OF DRY AIR UNDER THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BASICALLY CLOUD FREE ATMOSPHERE IN
THE LOWEST 10K FEET. MEANWHILE...A S/W IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE IT IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM LIFTING E-NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE THICKNESS OF THESE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER SCATTERED FROST WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 30S WEST TO UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 EAST.
SHOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH THE
CHARACTER OF THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS
THE FAR SE.
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS 60-65.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S/OFFSHORE. WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD... AND PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCES IS STRUGGLING WITH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STEAM ENERGY THAT
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND LINGERS NEAR FL AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME A MORE IN THE LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS IN SHOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST TO KEEP US DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCES HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THUS... CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WE WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA (IF PRECIP
LINGER... LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE/MOST). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
A COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER (MORE
EAST VS WEST). THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECT TO
WARM AGAIN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT TO PERHAPS EVEN BKN STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2500-
4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN MID-MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:
THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR
FAY: 31/1953
GSO: 29/1953
RDU: 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 PM. ALTHOUGH
NEAR ADVISORY TO LOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS MAY LINGER AROUND
JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON TO RUGBY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND 01 UTC
HRRR GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST
09-12 UTC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
WEST IN THE FAR WEST. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THESE TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS. KEEPING
HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE UNTIL MID
EVENING.
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT MINOT AND BISMARCK.
AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WAS ALREADY IN THE ADVISORY
THROUGH 10 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM OVER THE FAR WEST
PORTION OF THE ADVISORY...INCLUDING BISMARCK AND MINOT.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY
925-850MB WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MIXING LAYER REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE MID TO
LATE EVENING HOURS. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOES THROUGH 10 PM BUT
WILL EXTEND THIS NORTH THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND ADD
ANOTHER LAYER COUNTIES TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WILL SEND PRODUCTS OUT BY 6 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOLID
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS BEING MET OVER THE ADVISED AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND HEADLINE FOR THIS UPDATE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREFORE...REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FROM THE APPROPRIATE
ZONES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE GFS/GEM/NAM KEEP THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY (PROXIMATE
TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY) WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND
EXTEND THEM SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A MILD EASTER FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EASTER SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC COAST
TUESDAY...PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE CONVECTION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR THE 12 UTC RUN TODAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AND PROPAGATING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPES...AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE AND
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. DID
ADD A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING AT KMOT. OTHERWISE WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWEST CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES ABOVE 6SM
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DIMINISHED AT KBIS AND KMOT
AND WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AT KJMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AT
KDIK AND KISN SHORTLY...AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE INTO KMOT AND KBIS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND KJMS TOWARD
MORNING. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THE
LOWEST MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE
GFDI HAS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A LOW-END
"VERY HIGH" FIRE DANGER SATURDAY. FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THESE TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS. KEEPING
HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE UNTIL MID
EVENING.
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT MINOT AND BISMARCK.
AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WAS ALREADY IN THE ADVISORY
THROUGH 10 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM OVER THE FAR WEST
PORTION OF THE ADVISORY...INCLUDING BISMARCK AND MINOT.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY
925-850MB WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MIXING LAYER REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE MID TO
LATE EVENING HOURS. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOES THROUGH 10 PM BUT
WILL EXTEND THIS NORTH THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND ADD
ANOTHER LAYER COUNTIES TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WILL SEND PRODUCTS OUT BY 6 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOLID
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS BEING MET OVER THE ADVISED AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND HEADLINE FOR THIS UPDATE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREFORE...REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FROM THE APPROPRIATE
ZONES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE GFS/GEM/NAM KEEP THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY (PROXIMATE
TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY) WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND
EXTEND THEM SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A MILD EASTER FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EASTER SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC COAST
TUESDAY...PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE CONVECTION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR THE 12 UTC RUN TODAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AND PROPAGATING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPES...AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE AND
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWEST CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES ABOVE 6SM
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DIMINISH AT KBIS AND KMOT
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z AT KJMS.
LIGHT FLOW AT KISN AND KDIK EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT WEST AND
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO KMOT
AND KBIS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND KJMS TOWARD MORNING. BREEZY TO WINDY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THE
LOWEST MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE
GFDI HAS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A LOW-END
"VERY HIGH" FIRE DANGER SATURDAY. FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HAVE
DISSIPATED WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRISK SE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR..INDICATING A 500MB SHEARED VORTICITY AXIS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH) IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO
MONTANA WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH A SHOWALTER
INDEX NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THE MOST THURSDAY...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS CLOSING OFF A POTENT LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE 12 UTC
ECMWF ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE SIGNIFICANT QPF IS
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...PREICPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
EXPECTING MAINLY LOW VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING AT
KMOT/KISN/KBIS. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT KISN/KMOT...BUT LOW PROBABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
205 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HAVE
DISSIPATED WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRISK SE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR..INDICATING A 500MB SHEARED VORTICITY AXIS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH) IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO
MONTANA WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
BOWMAN RADAR WAS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. FLURRIES THIS MORNING...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATER AS WE
WARM...WESTERN THIRD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST.
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENT CLOUDS LINGERED
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THAT LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA
CONTINUED OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THE AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TODAY AND SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
H850 WINDS AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT H700 WITH WESTERLY WINDS. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THE SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM YESTERDAY AND
EXPECTATIONS HAVE CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY FOR THE LONG TERM.
OF MOST INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST IN
TIME FOR EASTER...WITH HIGHS 65 TO 70 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...
FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A MID LEVEL COLD POCKET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START...FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANT RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. THE COLD POCKET BRINGS MIXED
PRECIPITATION...PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW
AT NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH...
AT MOST...WEST AND NORTH. THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY
TIMES AND WITH RAIN.
THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE LONG TERM...SO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT FIRST AND THEN WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT...A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW...THAT FOR APRIL 24-25...AND FOR MOST WOULD BE
UNWELCOME.
TO BACK UP A BIT CONCERNING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF IT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA...IS NOW DEPICTED BY
THE MODELS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE LOW IS ALSO
DEPICTED WEAKER AND WITH THAT THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LESS. CAPE THAT WAS FORECAST TO NEAR 1500 J/KG
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI TO -4...IS NOW DEPICTED AS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND LI TO -2. IT IS STILL PRUDENT TO KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY COULD BE MORE THUNDERSHOWERS
AS COMPARED TO STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
EXPECTING MAINLY LOW VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING AT
KMOT/KISN/KBIS. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT KISN/KMOT...BUT LOW PROBABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT MORE
THAN A VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
146 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST RAP MODEL...COMPARED TO THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING...SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALSO...IT IS MIXING THE AIRMASS THROUGH 850 MB BY LATE
AFTN. THIS DEEPER MIXING...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN IN/IL BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL BE DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF
COLUMBUS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD WEAKENING THIS MOISTURE
STARVED FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND
WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING ITS
CHARACTERISTICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION....AND THE CANADIAN HIGH BEHIND THE
LOW FAILS TO BUILD TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS DO NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY DECENT POPS...AND THE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE GENEROUS FOR THIS FRONT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
60S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY MAY BE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWER 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE COUNTERACTING NATURE OF THE
HEIGHT RISES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE YET ANOTHER DAY
OF MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE 60 AS COOLER AIR IS DRAWN ACROSS THOSE ZONES
FROM LAKE ERIE.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW
AND BUILDING 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS IT DOES...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS
MOISTURE STARVED. AS SUCH...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION AS IT CROSSES THE TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR 5000 FOOT
CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1153 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST RAP MODEL...COMPARED TO THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING...SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALSO...IT IS MIXING THE AIRMASS THROUGH 850 MB BY LATE
AFTN. THIS DEEPER MIXING...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN IN/IL BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING SURFACE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL BE DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START OFF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF
COLUMBUS MAY DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERE.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD WEAKENING THIS MOISTURE
STARVED FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY JUST WEST OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND
WEAKEN AS THEY TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LOSING ITS
CHARACTERISTICS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION....AND THE CANADIAN HIGH BEHIND THE
LOW FAILS TO BUILD TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS DO NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY DECENT POPS...AND THE CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE GENEROUS FOR THIS FRONT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
60S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY MAY BE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWER 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE COUNTERACTING NATURE OF THE
HEIGHT RISES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE YET ANOTHER DAY
OF MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE
NORTH...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE 60 AS COOLER AIR IS DRAWN ACROSS THOSE ZONES
FROM LAKE ERIE.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN FLOW
AND BUILDING 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RETURN FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE FOR PRIMARILY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO JUST
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CLOUDS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION >
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO
THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER WIND/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE FROST
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SOME FROST WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN PROTECTED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS THE SOUTH
WHERE THE SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE TAKEN FROST MENTION OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
GRADIENT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN RETREATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY
AND THEN DECREASING AS THE OHIO VALLEY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO PHASE TO OUR WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS
PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THICKEST ACRS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME WIND AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS
LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE LOWER/MID
40S SW.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PIVOT EAST THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING MOISTURE/TIMING WITH
THIS WEAK FRONT. MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND FORCING IS VERY
WEAK OVER ILN/S FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO CHC IN THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTN AND THEN ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN RETURN FLOW THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE PRIMARILY JUST
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
511 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
FAST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY RAPID
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NW THIS
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MT BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND
TO NEAR LAKE WG BY 12Z SAT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN IR AND WV
SATELLITE PICS WITH COLDER AND MORE CONTINUOUS HIGH CLOUDS TO ITS
WEST AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR CWA.
AS TROF APPROACHES...BEST SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOWN BY 700MB Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPLITS INTO TWO AREAS. THE STRONGER MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF ACROSS ND...WHILE A SECOND AREA
DVLPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ELONGATES OVER THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER CO...NORTHERN NE...AND EASTERN SD BY 12Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS ALOFT IS MODEST
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NE WY AND WESTERN SD...ONGOING THIS AFTN.
ANALYSES OF SFC GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY CHANGES REVEAL INCREASING
VALUES OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTN. THESE CHANGES SHOULD SUPPORT
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. 18Z
NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL GIVE SUPPORT TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DETAILS OF STORM LOCATION/INTENSITY HAVE BEEN
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN OF THE HRRR.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500 TO 750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER WRN SD LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVG. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT...BUT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH LCLS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WHOLE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NORTH DAKOTA AND SWINGS
A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW RH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE TIME WILL
LEAVE THE SUN AFTN FORECAST DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CREATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE MAIN UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF CWA...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY LIQUID EVENT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SLUSHY
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND SYSTEM IN
QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
TSRA THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED UNDERNEATH THESE LOW CLOUDS AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS SHOW
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK
LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR A COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 POPS
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO
INCREASE CIGS HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ABOVE 2000FT. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL STILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BR THIS AFTERNOON.
IF PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS CIGS MAY
DROP BELOW 2000FT. THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATER OVER TARRANT COUNTY
THAN IN DALLAS COUNTY...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 57 77 61 79 / 30 20 10 10 10
WACO, TX 68 54 76 55 79 / 30 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 66 50 75 55 77 / 30 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 66 53 75 56 78 / 40 20 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 66 52 75 56 78 / 30 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 66 57 77 61 80 / 30 20 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 68 53 75 58 78 / 30 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 66 54 77 59 79 / 30 20 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 68 55 77 57 79 / 30 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 68 58 74 57 79 / 40 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1013 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.AVIATION...
LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO
INCREASE CIGS HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ABOVE 2000FT. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL STILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BR THIS AFTERNOON.
IF PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS CIGS MAY
DROP BELOW 2000FT. THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATER OVER TARRANT COUNTY
THAN IN DALLAS COUNTY...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 57 77 61 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
WACO, TX 70 54 76 55 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 67 50 75 55 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 67 53 75 56 78 / 30 20 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 67 52 75 56 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 69 57 77 61 80 / 20 20 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 70 53 75 58 78 / 20 20 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 71 54 77 59 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 70 55 77 57 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 58 74 57 79 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE INCREASED PAST SUNSET AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND NAM MODELS HAVE DONE WELL IN
FORECASTING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE NORTHERN
SAN JUAN AND ELK MOUNTAINS. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MODEL SKEW-TS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ARE SHOWING A CLASSIC
`V` PATTERN WHICH SUGGESTS STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT FROM VIRGA
AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP.
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW WITH
SNOW LEVEL STARTING NEAR 8500 FT OVERNIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST AND
TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AS IT PASSES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CO
MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCH
BY NOON SATURDAY...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. WITH SO MUCH POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD PACK A GOOD PUNCH OF WATER. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO
NEAR 10000 FEET BY NOON SO THE WINTER SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH...THEREFORE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD RISE QUICKLY.
USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THROUGH THE BACKCOUNTRY OR TRAVELING NEAR
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG SMALL DRAINAGES. WE APPRECIATE ANY REPORTS
OF RISING WATER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND SATURDAY/S DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HELPING THIS CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK WAVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WHILE A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON A DOWNTURN
IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON
TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT. WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WARM...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY ACT TO
DAMPEN THE WINDS. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VIRGA OR LIGHT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
WHICH WOULD GREATLY BOOST WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER WED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR OUR
AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH.
THEN WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THU AND FRI.
AFTER WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BY 15 OR MORE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIFTING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS PREVENTING MOISTURE FROM
GETTING INTO THE VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR VIRGA
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CHANGE TOWARD MORNING AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LIFT
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION OF THE TERRAIN.
VALLEYS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...BUT GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT FORECAST TERMINAL
OPERATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.AVIATION...
CLUSTERS OF SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
STILL IN QUESTION...SO COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL SITES FOR NOW.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.
SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
85/AG
SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
BNB
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 63 81 68 / 30 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 67 82 70 / 40 0 0 0
MIAMI 86 68 83 69 / 40 0 0 0
NAPLES 84 61 82 66 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.
VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED CHANCES THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS DUE
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND
DOWN AND END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON
HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.
FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN...AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL MTN
OBSCURATIONS. EXPECT PRECIP AT TERMINAL SITES TO BE SHORT
LIVED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
KABQ...KAEG...AND KSAF WITH ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH AT
KFMN...KGUP...AND KROW. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ALL SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A STORM COULD BRIEFLY BRING A
SITE DOWN TO MVFR CIGS. DUE TO SPOTTY NATURE OF SHRA AND
TSTMS...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST
OF CENTRAL MTS...GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING
AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE
SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST CIRA BLENDED PWAT LOOP INDICATES A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE
DESERT SW UNDER STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TODAY. PCT OF NORMAL VALUES
IN THIS MOIST PLUME HAVE INCREASED TO BTWN 100-150 PCT OF NORMAL
WITH POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 200 PCT. SATELLITE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 12Z-18Z GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOIST
INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 16Z HRRR WAS VERY
BULLISH ON DEVELOPING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/STORMS OVER THE SW MTS
THIS EVENING THEN SLIDING NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD INTO SAN JUAN
COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER BULLSEYE FROM LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES INTO
THE SE PLAINS. TRENDED POPS UP FOR THESE AREAS BUT VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL BATTLE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
TOP DOWN EFFECTS TAKE OVER.
MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SO FAR THIS
SPRING SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIFTED INDICES MAY
AVERAGE -2 TO -3C WTIH CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. ALSO RAISED POP VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD IN LINE WITH HPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF GUIDANCE. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONGER
FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE SE PLAINS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MAX TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING AND DRY AIR
SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEFINITELY WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS FROM DRY STORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SINCE THE WINDS LOOK UGLY FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION THEREAFTER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING SLOW TO APPROACH STATE BUT LOOK FOR IT LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WETTING STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY ALTHOUGH DRIER. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR A MULTI DAY WIND EVENT STARTING TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY WHICH MEANS
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A DOOZY WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RH COMBINED WITH REALLY STRONG
WIND AREAWIDE. POST COLD FRONTAL CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY
WITH RESIDUAL STRONG WIND. STRONG WIND/LOW RH ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF THURSDAY.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE
HIGHER CIRRUS HAS KEPT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING BUT
THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY DRIER WILL IMPACT THE WEST. CANT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES ADDITIONAL JUICE
WILL FUEL WETTER SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT THE BEST
RESULTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 STAND TO BENEFIT THE MOST IN TERMS OF SOME WETTING
MOISTURE OR GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL BE
FAIRLY JUICY MOST OF THE DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH ON SATURDAY. STORM MOTION DOEST APPEAR TO BE
ALL THAT FAST ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST/EAST QUICKER THAN THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY.
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME DRYING FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE INTO SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
PERHAPS SOME COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL WAVE INDUCED LIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY
WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST...SPECIFICALLY NORTHEAST.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR SOME RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. DRIER AIR WOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS. PERHAPS SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION BUT A
SIMILAR IDEA STANDS. INCREASES IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY.
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRADITIONAL OR
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE
QUITE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE HERKY JERKY OR WIDE GUST SPREAD LIKE
WINDS ON TUESDAY. POST COLD FRONTAL STRONG WINDS WOULD REMAIN ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAINES AND NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MIGHT BE A LIMITER IN TERMS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IN THE COMING DAYS...CAN SEE A WATCH BEING
ISSUED FOR THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AN AREAWIDE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS MULTI DAY EVENT ALTHOUGH
HAINES/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL MOST LIKELY FLUCTUATE SOME DUE TO
SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER CAVEAT IN TERMS OF
TUESDAY AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PRECEDING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
506 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD REACHING
C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS MOISTURE.
THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN GO AS FAR
AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME SPRINKLES.
FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER SOME SPRINKLES
WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT UPDATE. ITS
PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING
WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER
THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP
WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.
DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.
THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.
AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.
TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
2 AM SAT UPDATE...
FOR TODAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE
30S PERCENT IN FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. FINE FUELS WERE RUNNING BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS COMES CLOSE TO OUR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN PA. IN NY
THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE. BIGGEST QUESTION
WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS IN NE PA AND THAT IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES
AT THIS TIME. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CTP AND PHI WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO COVER AND DAY SHIFT CAN COORDINATE WITH PA STATE PARTNERS
TO SEE IF RED FLAG IS WARRANTED LATER THIS MORNING.
FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
359 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER
THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP
WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.
DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.
THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.
AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.
TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.
FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.
INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW.
FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS.
1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.
THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z.
AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.
TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.
FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: THE MOST DREARY WEATHER OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR
IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS... WITH CERTAIN RAIN FOR ALL. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE RESPECTIVE LOW CENTERS OVER
NE FL AND SRN AL... SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NNE OVER DELMARVA-NJ THAT IS SUPPLYING THE CHILLY NE FLOW IS
POISED TO BE SUPPLANTED BY A LARGER AND COLDER HIGH NOW CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO... WHICH WILL BE USHERED INTO OUR REGION THANKS TO A
WEAK NRN STREAM FRONT EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND PUSHING TO THE ESE... ATTENDING A SWIFT-MOVING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED UPPER JET CORES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH (RIGHT REAR QUAD OVER NC) AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VORTEX
OVER AL (LEFT FRONT QUAD OVER NC) HAVE STRENGTHENED THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER NC... SUPPORTING A BROAD SWATH OF MOSTLY LIGHT-MDT
RAIN OVER NC. WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THIS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND MASS CONVERGENCE AROUND 850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE MODELS DEPICT THE
BEST LIFT IN A BAND ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... WHERE THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL CORRELATED
IN THE VERTICAL... AND THIS IS INDICATED AS WELL BY SREF
PROBABILITIES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN... MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
LATEST OBSERVED RAINFALL SO FAR RANGES FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS
NEAR THE VA BORDER TO JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH (SCOTLAND
TO SAMPSON CO)... WITH AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CWA SEEING AROUND 0.30-0.40 INCH SO FAR. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS LOWEST IN THIS SW QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA (AROUND
1.75" IN 1 HR)... THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT THIS RATE WON`T BE ACHIEVED. BUT A GRAND TOTAL OF 2
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN IN THIS AREA COULD LEAD TO SOME STREET
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THOSE VULNERABLE AREAS NEAR CREEKS AND IN
TOWNS. THEN BY THIS AFTERNOON... THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK NRN STREAM
FRONT WILL HAVE ALLOWED THE CHILLIER HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NC
AS IT CROSSES SRN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT... HELPING TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS OVER NC FROM THE NORTH.
ALSO LATER TODAY THE UPPER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS THE DRY
SLOT ALOFT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTH... AND THIS DRYING ABOVE 0C
SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW TREND TO MOSTLY LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE... WITH
THE TRANSITION LAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE
DEFORMATION BAND WILL MOST LONG-LIVED. SO... IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER... WILL START THE DAY WITH 100% POPS... GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWN TO GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DROP. MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY
WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP THERE MIGHT BE TONIGHT... BUT BASED ON THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN... WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHERE ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW WILL LAST
THE LONGEST. TEMPS ARE CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST... WITH SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE APPEARING OVERLY OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE FOLLOWED HIGH-
RES AND RAPID-UPDATE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LOCAL WRF / HRRR / RAP /
GRIDDED LAMP FOR TEMPS TODAY... GIVING HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTH TO UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT... BUT WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE DWINDLING ESPECIALLY FROM
NW TO SE. LOWS 45-50.
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFF
SAVANNAH EARLY SUN THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT HEADS ESE THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HANGING ON IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER OVER NC SUNDAY... WITH A PERSISTENT COOL AND BRISK
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING IN FROM THE CHILLY BUT PROGRESSIVE
AND MODIFYING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS
NEARLY 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS OF 64-68... WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES SUN NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH A
CONTINUED ATLANTIC FETCH TO BRING ABOUT PATCHY LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LOWS 40-47. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE NC. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS SHOULD BACK
AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR
TO WORK INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE NAM ISNT QUITE AS DRY
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850MB
EAST OF I-95. WHILE THE AIRMASS WONT BEGIN TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL TUESDAY...STRONGER HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THEIR
POTENTIAL OF UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE PROJECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WEST AND UPPER 40S EAST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. MODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST A DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S...WHICH COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST WEAK
INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. MODEST SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY AS THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAYBE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THEN QUICKLY REBOUND ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM RESEMBLES THE EARLY WEAK SYSTEM...THOUGH
POTENTIALLY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE GULF.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...
AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED ON THE FL GULF COAST WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY... DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN... WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAY... VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE WITH MOST VSBYS AOA 6SM
AND CIGS AOA 4 000 FT... WHILE FAY HAS SEEN A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
BRINGING IN IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. THESE IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO FAY THROUGH 12Z... AND MAY CREEP INTO THE
VICINITY OF RWI. AT INT/GSO/RDU... VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z... ALTHOUGH VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. AFTER 12Z... RDU/RWI SHOULD FALL TO MAINLY
MVFR... LASTING UNTIL AROUND 19-21Z... WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. INT/GSO SHOULD REMAIN VFR... ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR 12Z-16Z THIS MORNING IS POSSIBLE. FAY IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOLDING
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AT INT/GSO/RWI/RDU... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 21Z AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR NOSES IN FROM HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH... WITH JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE AT MOST FROM 21Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z SUN).
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUN... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT FAY 06Z-09Z
THEN TO VFR BY 12Z... AND MAINLY VFR CIGS AT ALL OTHER SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL BRING
A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUE/TUE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR WED. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY. STIFF NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...KLTX AS WELL AS MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ILLUSTRATE
THE RAIN COMPLETELY BLANKETING THE ILM CWA. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING ACROSS THE FA...WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS WILLIAMSBURG AND HORRY COUNTIES. THE SFC
COASTAL TROF LIES NE-SW JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM
COASTAL CWA. THE HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE MENTIONED ILM CWA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE COASTAL TROF THAT
PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS TROF AND THEN ONSHORE WHERE
INSTABILITY LACKED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...THIS
CONVECTIVE PCPN TRANSITIONED INTO STRATIFORM MODERATE TO POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH ALL THIS SAID...LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE 1ST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
HIGH TIDE LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
VIA CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...THE ONSHORE
MOVEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED BY
CHS...WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THE ILM CWA. IT IS
PROGGED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT REACHES THE ILM CWA DURING
THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH THE SAT PRE-DAWN HOURS. AS A RESULT...
HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
FOR DOWNTOWN ILM AND PORTIONS OF CAPE FEAR SOUTH OF SNOWS CUT
RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCREASING RAINFALL COINCIDING
WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. HOWEVER...LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID...
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIER PCPN TO ARRIVE MUCH LATER THEN THE HIGH TIDE
OCCURRENCE LATE THIS EVENING.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE MASSAGING NEEDED TO
THE DOWNSIDE. VIA VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE
FA...A NE-ENE 30 TO 40 KT WIND WILL PERSIST JUST OFF THE DECK
OVERNIGHT THRU SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE WINDS MAY GET CARRIED TO
THE SFC AS WIND GUSTS OR BY FURTHER INCREASING SUSTAINED VALUES.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS UPWARDS ACROSS THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONSHORE. WITH THE
COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE 40S THE FURTHER INLAND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY MORNING
WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES
FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST. DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND
THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS
THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...BUT
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS
EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT
SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR
JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN
A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS -RA/RA
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONSTANT
RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS BELOW 1KFT AT MOST TERMS.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING. SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL BRING
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT IFR STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. CIGS MAY LIFT TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT
DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED OFFSHORE. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...NE-ENE WINDS REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. A TIGHTENED SFC PG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...AND THE 40+ KT WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A NE WIND AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
STRONGLY WORDED SCA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL HAVE TO ONCE AGAIN
WATCH FOR FUTURE CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE GALES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HOLD RELATIVELY IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE WITH SEAS
APPROACHING 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND
ALSO OFF CAPE ROMAIN. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 7 SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WINDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MODEST...ONLY IN THE
10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF FLORIDA. SEAS WILL
BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN 10
KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT
10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25 KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE
NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/CRM
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...BJR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
115 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE TO POPS AND
TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR
IMAGERY...AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL TRENDS.
LINE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN
NOW AND 10-12Z AS A MID LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST NEAR A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PERSIST BUT WILL ALSO PUSH FARTHER EAST BY DAWN.
A PERIOD OF STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS IS ACCOMPANYING THE LINE
OF SHOWERS/CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH PEAK GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30
TO 45KTS. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FRONTAL FEATURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 PM. ALTHOUGH
NEAR ADVISORY TO LOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS MAY LINGER AROUND
JAMESTOWN AND CARRINGTON TO RUGBY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND 01 UTC
HRRR GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST
09-12 UTC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
WEST IN THE FAR WEST. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THESE TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS. KEEPING
HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE UNTIL MID
EVENING.
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT MINOT AND BISMARCK.
AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH 10 PM OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WAS ALREADY IN THE ADVISORY
THROUGH 10 PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM OVER THE FAR WEST
PORTION OF THE ADVISORY...INCLUDING BISMARCK AND MINOT.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY
925-850MB WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MIXING LAYER REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE MID TO
LATE EVENING HOURS. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOES THROUGH 10 PM BUT
WILL EXTEND THIS NORTH THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND ADD
ANOTHER LAYER COUNTIES TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WILL SEND PRODUCTS OUT BY 6 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOLID
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS BEING MET OVER THE ADVISED AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND HEADLINE FOR THIS UPDATE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREFORE...REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FROM THE APPROPRIATE
ZONES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE GFS/GEM/NAM KEEP THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY (PROXIMATE
TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY) WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND
EXTEND THEM SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A MILD EASTER FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EASTER SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC COAST
TUESDAY...PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE CONVECTION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR THE 12 UTC RUN TODAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AND PROPAGATING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPES...AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE AND
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOWEST CEILINGS AROUND 5K FT AGL AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ABOVE 6SM EARLY THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST NOW THROUGH 12Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS NEAR MVFR
POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST SATURDAY
SUSTAINED NEAR 20KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
343 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
ONCE AGAIN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER PREVENTING ANY ATTEMPT AT PRECIP FROM
REALLY REACHING THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH MID LEVEL
WAVE SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN CONTINUED WEAKENING
SUPPORT...HAVE PULLED ANY MEASURABLE POPS FROM THE MORNING. WILL
CARRY A FEW SPRINKLES FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO PULL ALL
PRECIP MENTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...POISED JUST WEST
OF THE CWA AT 08Z. EVEN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR A KMML-KFSD-KYKN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COOLING. WITH FAIR MIXING IN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS WELL AS GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER
LOW LEVELS...SHOULD STILL SEE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR WARMER RAP AND BIAS-CORRECTED RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN 80+ DEGREE READING IN OUR FAR SOUTH THOUGH
KEEPING HIGHS JUST SHY FOR NOW. MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM TEMPS
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EAST OF HIGHWAY
60 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH APPROACH OF BOUNDARY...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
WILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH INSTABILITY
PRETTY WEAK SO WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. BOUNDARY
SAGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND STALLS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE BOUNDARY...AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE GETTING KICKED OUT OF SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...SO POPS LIKEWISE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EXPECT ANY NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KFSD. AMERICAN
MODELS QUITE A BIT MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN GEM/ECMWF...
WHICH ALSO DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...AND THUS TRIMMED HIGHEST POPS BACK INTO LIKELY RANGE.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CWA...WHILE DRIER AIR/LIGHT WINDS IN OUR NORTHWEST ALLOW READINGS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT UP INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AND BETTER INSTABILITY NUDGES INTO OUR
SOUTH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY
WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER. AREAS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ACTUALLY HAVE A DECENT DAY ON SUNDAY AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WHILE
AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL ONLY MAKE IT UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY FINALLY
BEGINS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO THE
EAST...WITH AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
TOWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGHWAY CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO STORM
LAKE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK A BIT IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BOTH DAYS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
ON MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING AND WINDS RUNNING AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
INTO THE EXTENDED...MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S NUDGES
EASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE BULLSEYE FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTAL DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. DOES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WINDY
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29. BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DECIDED TO PUT IN A
LIGHT SHOWER FOR THE SIOUX FALLS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT
ALONG A SLOW MOVING WIND SHIFT. THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF KSUX
THROUGOUT THE ENTIRE EVENING ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR A THUNDERSHOWER OUT OF THE KSUX TAF THAT
FAR OUT AS CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY SKIDDISH FOR THAT AREA UNTIL
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1115 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
FAST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY RAPID
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NW THIS
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MT BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND
TO NEAR LAKE WG BY 12Z SAT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN IR AND WV
SATELLITE PICS WITH COLDER AND MORE CONTINUOUS HIGH CLOUDS TO ITS
WEST AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR CWA.
AS TROF APPROACHES...BEST SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOWN BY 700MB Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPLITS INTO TWO AREAS. THE STRONGER MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF ACROSS ND...WHILE A SECOND AREA
DVLPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ELONGATES OVER THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER CO...NORTHERN NE...AND EASTERN SD BY 12Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS ALOFT IS MODEST
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NE WY AND WESTERN SD...ONGOING THIS AFTN.
ANALYSES OF SFC GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY CHANGES REVEAL INCREASING
VALUES OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTN. THESE CHANGES SHOULD SUPPORT
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. 18Z
NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL GIVE SUPPORT TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DETAILS OF STORM LOCATION/INTENSITY HAVE BEEN
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN OF THE HRRR.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500 TO 750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER WRN SD LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVG. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT...BUT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH LCLS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WHOLE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NORTH DAKOTA AND SWINGS
A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW RH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE TIME WILL
LEAVE THE SUN AFTN FORECAST DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CREATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE MAIN UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF CWA...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY LIQUID EVENT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SLUSHY
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND SYSTEM IN
QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH EARLY MORNING...ESP ACROSS THE NW SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS AND IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR A
PATCH OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NE WY AND FAR NW SD EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE
PAST HOUR IN RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR
ISENTROPIC LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF
YET... EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC
TROUGH IN ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS
NEBULOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
COLORADO JUST BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA
AROUND 1500Z. AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS
BNDRY. POCKETS OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS
FRONT. WITH THE MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL
EAST OF THE CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY
MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF 15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF
CLOUD BASES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
VORT LOBE NOW CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
AND MOISTURE FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
AROUND SOUTH PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS
HAPPENING AFTER 1500Z.
SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.
FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TROUGH THE DENVER AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 1500Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST COMPONENT WITH ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE A
1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF 15-20 KTS GUSTS WITH FROPA. CLOUD BASES WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AS LOW AS 5000-6000 FEET AGL WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS IN THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 19/2100Z AND
20/0100Z. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RISE IN CLOUD BASES
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS OF 8-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-12KTS IN
THE EVENING...THEN LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.
VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.
FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WIND AND THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. MODELS
ARE HAVING A HARD HANDLING THE SPEED AND POSITION OF INCOMING
FRONT. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER WHERE
THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO TRENDED THE TAFS IN THAT
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE VFR CODNTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: THE MOST DREARY WEATHER OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR
IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS... WITH CERTAIN RAIN FOR ALL. THE LATEST
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE RESPECTIVE LOW CENTERS OVER
NE FL AND SRN AL... SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NNE OVER DELMARVA-NJ THAT IS SUPPLYING THE CHILLY NE FLOW IS
POISED TO BE SUPPLANTED BY A LARGER AND COLDER HIGH NOW CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO... WHICH WILL BE USHERED INTO OUR REGION THANKS TO A
WEAK NRN STREAM FRONT EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND PUSHING TO THE ESE... ATTENDING A SWIFT-MOVING MID LEVEL
TROUGH. IDEALLY JUXTAPOSED UPPER JET CORES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH (RIGHT REAR QUAD OVER NC) AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VORTEX
OVER AL (LEFT FRONT QUAD OVER NC) HAVE STRENGTHENED THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER NC... SUPPORTING A BROAD SWATH OF MOSTLY LIGHT-MDT
RAIN OVER NC. WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THIS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND MASS CONVERGENCE AROUND 850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE MODELS DEPICT THE
BEST LIFT IN A BAND ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... WHERE THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL CORRELATED
IN THE VERTICAL... AND THIS IS INDICATED AS WELL BY SREF
PROBABILITIES AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN... MOST FALLING THIS MORNING.
LATEST OBSERVED RAINFALL SO FAR RANGES FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS
NEAR THE VA BORDER TO JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH (SCOTLAND
TO SAMPSON CO)... WITH AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CWA SEEING AROUND 0.30-0.40 INCH SO FAR. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS LOWEST IN THIS SW QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA (AROUND
1.75" IN 1 HR)... THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT THIS RATE WON`T BE ACHIEVED. BUT A GRAND TOTAL OF 2
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN IN THIS AREA COULD LEAD TO SOME STREET
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THOSE VULNERABLE AREAS NEAR CREEKS AND IN
TOWNS. THEN BY THIS AFTERNOON... THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK NRN STREAM
FRONT WILL HAVE ALLOWED THE CHILLIER HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NC
AS IT CROSSES SRN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT... HELPING TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS OVER NC FROM THE NORTH.
ALSO LATER TODAY THE UPPER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS THE DRY
SLOT ALOFT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTH... AND THIS DRYING ABOVE 0C
SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW TREND TO MOSTLY LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE... WITH
THE TRANSITION LAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE
DEFORMATION BAND WILL MOST LONG-LIVED. SO... IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER... WILL START THE DAY WITH 100% POPS... GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWN TO GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DROP. MODELS DISAGREE ON EXACTLY
WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP THERE MIGHT BE TONIGHT... BUT BASED ON THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN... WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHERE ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW WILL LAST
THE LONGEST. TEMPS ARE CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST... WITH SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE APPEARING OVERLY OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE FOLLOWED HIGH-
RES AND RAPID-UPDATE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LOCAL WRF / HRRR / RAP /
GRIDDED LAMP FOR TEMPS TODAY... GIVING HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTH TO UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT... BUT WITH RAIN/DRIZZLE DWINDLING ESPECIALLY FROM
NW TO SE. LOWS 45-50.
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFF
SAVANNAH EARLY SUN THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT HEADS ESE THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HANGING ON IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER OVER NC SUNDAY... WITH A PERSISTENT COOL AND BRISK
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING IN FROM THE CHILLY BUT PROGRESSIVE
AND MODIFYING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15-20 M BELOW NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS
NEARLY 2 CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS OF 64-68... WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES SUN NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH A
CONTINUED ATLANTIC FETCH TO BRING ABOUT PATCHY LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LOWS 40-47. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
THE SLOW MOVING CUT OFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE NC. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS SHOULD BACK
AROUND TO MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR
TO WORK INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE NAM ISNT QUITE AS DRY
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850MB
EAST OF I-95. WHILE THE AIRMASS WONT BEGIN TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL TUESDAY...STRONGER HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THEIR
POTENTIAL OF UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE PROJECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WEST AND UPPER 40S EAST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. MODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST A DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 50S...WHICH COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST WEAK
INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. MODEST SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY AS THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAYBE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THEN QUICKLY REBOUND ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM RESEMBLES THE EARLY WEAK SYSTEM...THOUGH
POTENTIALLY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE GULF.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM SATURDAY...
AN EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED ON THE FL GULF COAST WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS LINGERED THROUGH THE NIGHT... BUT
VSBYS HAVE VASCILLATED AMONG VFR / MVFR / IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR (AS MVFR CLOUDS SHIFT
FROM SCT TO BKN AND BACK TO SCT AGAIN) THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY... CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ANY PARTICULAR TIME TODAY IS VERY LOW. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO
MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THROUGH 19Z. AFTER AROUND 19-21Z AT
INT/GSO/RWI/RDU... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO PREVAILING VFR AS
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR NOSES IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH... WITH
JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE AT MOST FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD (12Z SUN). EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT FAY 06Z-09Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUN... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AT FAY TO VFR BY 12Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL BRING A
RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TUE/TUE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
WED. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
639 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
ONCE AGAIN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER PREVENTING ANY ATTEMPT AT PRECIP FROM
REALLY REACHING THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH MID LEVEL
WAVE SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN CONTINUED WEAKENING
SUPPORT...HAVE PULLED ANY MEASURABLE POPS FROM THE MORNING. WILL
CARRY A FEW SPRINKLES FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO PULL ALL
PRECIP MENTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...POISED JUST WEST
OF THE CWA AT 08Z. EVEN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR A KMML-KFSD-KYKN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COOLING. WITH FAIR MIXING IN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS WELL AS GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER
LOW LEVELS...SHOULD STILL SEE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR WARMER RAP AND BIAS-CORRECTED RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN 80+ DEGREE READING IN OUR FAR SOUTH THOUGH
KEEPING HIGHS JUST SHY FOR NOW. MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM TEMPS
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EAST OF HIGHWAY
60 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH APPROACH OF BOUNDARY...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
WILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH INSTABILITY
PRETTY WEAK SO WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. BOUNDARY
SAGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND STALLS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE BOUNDARY...AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE GETTING KICKED OUT OF SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...SO POPS LIKEWISE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EXPECT ANY NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KFSD. AMERICAN
MODELS QUITE A BIT MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN GEM/ECMWF...
WHICH ALSO DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...AND THUS TRIMMED HIGHEST POPS BACK INTO LIKELY RANGE.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CWA...WHILE DRIER AIR/LIGHT WINDS IN OUR NORTHWEST ALLOW READINGS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT UP INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AND BETTER INSTABILITY NUDGES INTO OUR
SOUTH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY
WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER. AREAS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ACTUALLY HAVE A DECENT DAY ON SUNDAY AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WHILE
AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL ONLY MAKE IT UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY FINALLY
BEGINS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO THE
EAST...WITH AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
TOWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGHWAY CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO STORM
LAKE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK A BIT IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BOTH DAYS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
ON MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING AND WINDS RUNNING AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
INTO THE EXTENDED...MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S NUDGES
EASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE BULLSEYE FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTAL DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. DOES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WINDY
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KT STILL LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29
CORRIDOR INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AS SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST. WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY SEE LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BRIEF GUSTS
OF 25-30KT POSSIBLE AS SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH THREAT AT TAF
LOCATIONS TOO LOW TO FEEL CONFIDENT IN MENTIONING PRIOR TO 06Z. AFTER
06Z...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND HAVE ADDED -SHRA INTO KSUX TAF FOR THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS SUNDAY. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT AGAIN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA COVERAGE...OPTED TO JUST STICK WITH SHRA
FOR NOW. CEILINGS/VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED
BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ELONGATED BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LATEST MORNING
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG NE FLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS EVIDENCED VIA THE RNK RAOB. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HRRR SOLN THAT
ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT ALL THE PRECIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GFS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MORE EASTERLY
INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ONLY DRIFTS TO OFF THE
SE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOME SUN NORTH...TO CLOUDS CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF -RA VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH AS THE BAND TENDS TO STRETCH OUT WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING CAT/LIKELY POPS A
WHILE LONGER ACROSS MUCH OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WITH A
QUICK DROPOFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM JUST SOUTH OF HIWAY 460 AND
POINTS NORTH.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO
TOP 50 UNDER THE RAIN WHILE REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S FAR
NORTH/WEST WITH 56-63 BCB-ROA-LYH CORRIDOR PENDING DEGREE OF ANY
BREAKS. THUS INCREASED THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ALREADY
ABOVE HIGHS IN SPOTS NORTH OF THE MAIN RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...INCLUDING DAN. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH
ROA/LYH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY. THE -RA CONTINUES TO FALL
OUT OF VFR CIGS...MOSTLY AOA 080 AT THIS TIME. VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR
DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO
SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAKING IT HARD TO REALIZE ANYTHING WORSE THAN VFR AT
THIS POINT. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DAN...BUT
ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS
LESS THAN VFR.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFT 00Z...BUT LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
509 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOW...BUT THE COMBO OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS.
LOOKS AS THOUGH AREAS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
NAM PAINTS INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 200 J/KG WITHIN THE
BEST...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO. TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE WHERE LLVL FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5F COOLER. SFC WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SO MAY SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE VCTY LARAMIE RANGE. COOLER
SFC TEMPS AND WAA ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL MINIMIZE INSTABILITY AND THUS TSTORM CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
PRETTY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWFA. THESE
ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +4C MONDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO +8C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WARM
DAY TUESDAY WITH 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WESTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...700MB WINDS BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH THE GFS SHOW 50KTS AT 700MBS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 60MTRS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASES TO 70MTRS DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6C ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LOOK TO BE THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
AREAS EAST WILL BE IMPACTED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...SO KEPT THESE
AREAS DRY.
CONCERNS FOR WIND HEADLINES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS. SHOULD BE AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT THERE...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z FOR KCYS AND KRWL. FOLLOWED THIS
GUIDANCE IN TAFS. CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT TO KBFF AFTER 00Z...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON TSTMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LESS
WIND. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. AFTER A COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOLER...AND INCREASE IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING DENVER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A THICK
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CLOUD DECK WAS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE PICS...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND NEARLY OVERCAST SKIES
REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PARK/SUMMIT COUNTY AREA STRETCHING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHERE BEST BUT STILL
WEAK INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. CAPES ONLY ABOUT 100-300 J/KG BUT
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SNOW IN
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10-10.5 THOUSAND FEET. DID INCREASE
POPS...QPF...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT MORE IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR ON THE EDGE OF ANY
INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EASTERN PLAINS LOOK
TOO STABLE BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH CONVECTION UNTIL
PERHAPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO DELAYED WEATHER CHANCES
THERE...AND EVEN THOSE ARE QUITE SMALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW IN FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. IR SAT IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE PAST HOUR IN
RESPONSE TO THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AS OF YET...
EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE HIGH MTN PEAKS. MEANWHILE A SFC TROUGH IN
ERN COLORADO INTERSECTS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWRD ACROSS NRN WYOMING AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE...THICKNESS AND WIND FIELDS SHOW THIS NEBULOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO JUST
BEFORE 1200Z AND MOVING INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA AROUND 1500Z.
AIR ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID BEHIND THIS BNDRY. POCKETS
OF GUSTY NELY WINDS CAN BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH THE
MAIN RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE
CWA...MODELS SHOW POST-FRONTAL WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY MAKE THEIR
WAY TO THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF
15-20KT NELY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW IN PLACE SHOULD SEE A STEADY LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN. IN ADDITION...THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORT LOBE NOW
CROSSING SWRN COLORADO WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER FORMATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND SOUTH
PARK LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING AFTER
1500Z.
SHOULD SEE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INCHING CLOSER. WRF...NAM
AND HRRR SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FRONT RANGE DRIFTING
OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2000Z TODAY. MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES ARE GENERALLY OF LOW INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE WRF
AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF 20-35DBZ CELLS SWINGING SEWRD ACROSS THE
DENVER METRO AREA JUST PRIOR TO 20/0000Z AND THEN OVER DOUGLAS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0300Z. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DRIVES A THETA-E RIDGE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED STORM CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. NOT AS CONFIDENT WE/LL SEE ANY HAIL FROM THESE LOW-TOP
T-STORMS AS CAPES AND LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MODELS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOW POPS WARRANTED UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY AS MUCH AS 15 DEG F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH...A SMATTERING OF WEAK SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LOW ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. DRIER FURTHER NORTH BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABLITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY. DRY AND MORE STABLE ON THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW POOLS MOISTURE OVER EAST SLOPES.
FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NEXT TROF DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BIG WARMUP OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. COULD BE A DRY LINE SETUP
OVER THE EASTERN BORDER WITH KANSAS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT
RANGE...GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...COOLER AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AGAIN INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS SPEEDS ALREADY
SLACKING OFF TO 10 KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TURNING MORE
EASTERLY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNTIL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFT
21Z WITH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS NEAR SHOWERS. CEILINGS
COULD LOWER TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET FOR ILS LANDING CONDITIONS
WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VISUAL LANDINGS
WILL PREVAIL. CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER IS QUITE LOW WITH CAPES LESS
THAN 100 J/KG.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.
AG
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.
BNB
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 63 77 67 82 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 79 69 82 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 67 79 68 82 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 64 80 65 82 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO PREVAIL THIS AFTN AS
LOW PRESSURE PINWHEELS ACROSS THE INLAND FL/GA BORDER. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...EXITING TO THE NE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS THE LOW EJECTS NE SUNDAY...EXPECT ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS OFFSHORE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL LAND AREAS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT NORTH-CENTRAL FL WHERE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BREAKS
WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTN. BEHIND THE LOW...COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN...WITH LOWS TNGT IN THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND AND 55 TO
60 COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS SE GA...WITH
MAINLY LOWER/MID 70S FOR NE FL.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
70 COAST TO NEAR 80 WESTERNMOST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SE ACROSS AREA TUESDAY...MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH FEATURE MAINLY OVER OUR GA COUNTIES...ACTIVITY
MAY DECREASE AS IT SPREADS OVER SE GA TUE NIGHT. KEPT POPS LOW AND
MAINLY ACROSS OUR GA COUNTIES FOR NOW.
NEXT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WED/THU...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MILD TEMPS. NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF FORECAST AREA
FRI/SAT...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AREA FROM THE NW LATE SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...CHALLENGING CIG/VSBY FORECAST WITH LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY
REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG/DZ/-RA AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR AND LAMP SUGGEST AFTER BRIEFING
HIGHER CONDITIONS IN NE FL CURRENTLY AHEAD OF SYSTEM...LOWER
CONDITIONS SPREAD IN FROM W TOWARD EVENING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
FIRST HALF OF SUN. FOLLOWED TREND OF KEEPING IFR CONDITIONS...THO
QUITE UNCERTAIN ON VSBYS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OFFSHORE.
NEVERTHELESS...FORECASTING IFR CONDITIONS AT TAFS SITES THRU SUN
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A LULL IN WINDS/SEAS CONTINUES THIS AFTN JUST EAST OF LOW PRESSURE.
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND EAST OF THE
WATERS BY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN RATHER QUICKLY...WITH
GALES LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...WILL UPGRADE
THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR OVERNIGHT TNGT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE NEARSHORE...WILL USE A SCA WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCA WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH ELEVATED SURF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 52 70 51 78 / 30 10 10 10
SSI 57 67 54 68 / 50 20 10 10
JAX 55 72 54 76 / 50 10 0 10
SGJ 59 70 58 69 / 40 20 10 10
GNV 55 77 55 79 / 30 10 10 10
OCF 56 79 57 79 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
WOLF/ALLEN/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.
AG
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.
BNB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 63 77 67 82 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 79 69 82 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 67 79 68 82 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 64 80 65 82 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
AT 16Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 800-1200
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 15-25KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.
VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.
FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS OCCURRED AT BOTH TERMINALS AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WELL SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL MAINLY THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1032 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
AT 16Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 800-1200
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 15-25KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.
VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.
BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.
FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WIND AND THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. MODELS
ARE HAVING A HARD HANDLING THE SPEED AND POSITION OF INCOMING
FRONT. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER WHERE
THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO TRENDED THE TAFS IN THAT
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 70S ON
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO
RETURN. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S READINGS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP HEIGHT
FIELDS WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND WAS TRIGGERING
MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ONLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED THERE AS LOW
HUMIDITIES EXIST BELOW MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER. CONGESTUS CLOUDS
WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AREA OF INCREASING
BUT STILL WEAK INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WORK TOWARD THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES
WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE FRONT. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THE SLOW
MOISTURE RETURN WAS HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM WERE ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVER TOP OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND
MESO SCALE MODELS (NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF) INDICATE CONVECTION
POPPING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOMETIME IN THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME...AND DEVELOP/SPREAD THIS
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WHEN STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CAPE
800 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KT...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS OUT OF OUR AREA.
THEN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE...LIKELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT BRIDGING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AFTERNOON
SURFACE CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG BUT SHEAR IS LIMITED. SO
AGAIN SEVERE CHANCES ARE SMALL...BUT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN COOLING ALOFT FROM UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BEFORE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR I-80 AND SOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLEARING SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN WILL RULE THE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THAT TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THAT PASSES
BY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AT MID WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES
UNDER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT STRONG THEN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO
LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT BETTER CHANCES COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
UNDER DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET. TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES WILL STILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH
LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR 02-10Z AND AGAIN AT KOFK FROM
12-18Z SUN. MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR KLNK AND KOMA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
218 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING
AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE
SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO NM TODAY. CIRA PERCENT
OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
THE STATE. THE 12Z KABQ RAOB PWAT OF 0.54 WAS +2 STD DEV ABV CLIMO
AND 0.77 AT KEPZ WAS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW DRAGGING ALL THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NM/SOUTHERN AZ. THICK
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NM HAS REALLY HAMPERED TRANSLATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION...WHILE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
IMPACT NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY. FORTUNATELY AREAS THAT HAVE
REPORTED PRECIP SINCE MIDNIGHT ARE DOING QUITE WELL. LOTS OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCH REPORTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE FOCUS FOR HIGHEST CHANCES. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TROWAL FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NM. QPF
NUMBERS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEY IF IN FACT
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS. OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TO
SOME DEGREE BUT CONVECTIVE QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
DIDNT CHANGE GRIDS TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT SINCE CONFIDENCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF DEFINITE POPS IS TOO LOW. THE MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NE PLAINS SUNDAY WHERE A SURFACE FRONT ALSO SLIPS INTO
THE REGION. INCREASED POPS A TAD THERE AND LOWERED FOR THE WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
DID NOT FOCUS MUCH ON THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SINCE MAINLY A
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER AS VERY DRY
AIR BEGINS SCOURING OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK NASTY WITH STRONG WINDS...
BLOWING DUST...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETTING UP FOR
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FEATURES
EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. BROAD TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE CITY
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLIDES
OVER THE STATE MONDAY. TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL SWING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY..TILT
NEGATIVE...AND THEN MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH
WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
STATE IN ZONAL FLOW. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN NEGATIVE TILT ASPECT SATURDAY MORNING...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. MONDAY MORNING
DAWNS WITH DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN DISPLAYED FEATURES BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. EUROPEAN ECMWF MAINTAINS A BRISK SHEARING ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHILE GFS OPTS FOR CLOSING THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY SLOW
EJECTION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TENDENCIES TO CLOSE FEATURES
OFF OVER THE WEST OF LATE ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...AND WILL THUS OPT
FOR THE MORE SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION TO GUIDE
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.
OVERNIGHT...A TEMPERATURE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT IN A CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING PRETTY MUCH ALL NIGHT.
SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SUNRISE. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...AND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR THE
SURFACE.
FOR SUNDAY...BAGGY TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK WILL
DRIFT OFF INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER FOCUS WILL TRAIL THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER FOCUS
MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OVER THE EAST.
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEST. MOISTURE INFLUX WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST IN MODEST WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GENERALLY
GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO LATE APRIL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY...RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE LINGERING OVER THE EAST WILL
END OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODEST RAINFALLS...AS COOL
PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST CROSSES INTO NEW MEXICO AND SLOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND RIO GRANDE OUT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BY MONDAY NIGHT. DRYING TREND WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
UPPER TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST...AND THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST.
VENTILATION CONDITIONS MOVING DOWN GRADUALLY...WITH FAIR OR BETTER
CONDITIONS...BEST IN THE EXTREME EAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY...DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP...AS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF SUBSTANTIAL WEST COAST TROUGH. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. GUSTS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS PCT WILL SPREAD SOME
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING AROUND 5 IN THE AREA CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL THREAT PICTURE...AND THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING CAREFULLY.
ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S PCT EAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES STATEWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING TO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY FOR A WINDY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRAILING RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DIE
DOWN. TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LATE APRIL NORMALS OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE IN A VERY DRY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK. WINDY WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...AS
THURSDAY GUSTS OVER THE EAST REDEVELOP THE CRITICAL PATTERN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
TEXAS LINE. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY WILL EASE UP ON THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WORK WEEK. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS RUNNING GOOD OR BETTER ON THE
INTERVENING THURSDAY. POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ALL THREE
NIGHTS.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON UNDERWAY AS TROUGH FROM SALT LAKE
CITY ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SLUICING
MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF NM WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH SIGNIFICANT STORM REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD 05Z THIS
EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS SWINGS DIRECTLY OVER THE HEART OF NM.
INITIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SLIDE TO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AN THEN WIND UP OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
BY 12Z SUN MORNING. TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE TX STATE LINE
HEADING EAST WITH THE LAST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TAPERING
DOWN BY 18Z SUN NOON. FOR TAFS...VCTS SIGNALING WINDOW OF GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VCSH SIGNALING CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TERMINALS AT REDUCED INTENSITY.
SHY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 42 74 41 77 / 10 20 10 0
DULCE........................... 34 69 31 71 / 30 30 10 10
CUBA............................ 35 68 35 70 / 50 30 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 35 72 34 76 / 20 20 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 29 64 30 68 / 40 20 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 35 69 35 72 / 30 20 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 37 66 40 70 / 50 20 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 36 74 36 79 / 30 10 5 0
CHAMA........................... 35 62 31 65 / 40 60 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 65 45 68 / 50 40 10 20
PECOS........................... 42 61 41 63 / 70 40 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 65 32 68 / 40 60 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 33 51 31 53 / 60 70 30 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 55 30 58 / 60 70 20 30
TAOS............................ 36 65 33 68 / 40 40 10 20
MORA............................ 41 62 39 63 / 60 50 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 39 71 37 74 / 40 30 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 43 63 43 66 / 50 40 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 69 39 72 / 50 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 72 50 75 / 50 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 74 49 76 / 50 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 76 44 78 / 40 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 77 47 79 / 40 20 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 77 42 80 / 40 20 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 76 47 78 / 40 20 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 51 78 51 81 / 50 20 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 68 45 70 / 70 30 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 46 69 47 71 / 60 30 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 67 36 69 / 70 30 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 41 65 41 67 / 70 30 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 68 46 71 / 60 30 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 70 46 74 / 50 20 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 42 65 42 67 / 60 30 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 44 60 42 61 / 60 70 20 20
RATON........................... 42 65 40 67 / 60 50 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 45 66 42 68 / 60 40 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 65 41 67 / 60 40 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 52 69 51 69 / 50 50 10 20
ROY............................. 48 65 45 67 / 50 40 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 52 73 50 74 / 40 40 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 73 48 74 / 40 30 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 76 52 77 / 40 30 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 49 74 48 76 / 60 30 10 10
PORTALES........................ 51 75 49 76 / 60 30 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 76 51 77 / 50 30 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 52 80 51 81 / 60 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 49 74 48 76 / 60 20 10 20
ELK............................. 46 69 47 70 / 60 20 10 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
301 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TO
UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.
WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING
A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST.
GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS
AT KFLO/KLBT HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES. VSBYS ARE
VFR...BUT VSBYS AT KILM/KLBT HAVE BEEN MVFR/IFR IN -DZ -RA AND BR.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING FROM S-N...SHOWERS
ARE REDEVELOPING TO THE SE OF KILM. THE LATEST HRRR SLINGS THIS NW
INTO KILM THEN KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KILM/KLBT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT KILM DUE TO SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AS WELL...WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KLBT DUE TO SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ENE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW PASSES EAST THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. PERIODS OF VFR
COULD OCCUR BY 12Z BUT KEPT CIGS MVFR ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST
SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE
WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING
7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING
STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED
REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4
FT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS
FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL JUST DRIFT NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SC COAST
BY TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXTENDING NE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE TO JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...AND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL WAVER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AS WELL. ALL OF THESE FEATURES TOGETHER WILL CREATE A
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED DAY...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS.
THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH FELL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING HAS MOSTLY EXITED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ONLY REMNANT
SHOWERS REMAINING LOCALLY. ALL AVAILABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MODELS
THIS WELL...ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION THAT WHAT IS
ACTUALLY BEING OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THESE SAME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
HEAVIER RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ONTO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
SATURATED...MUCH MORESO THAN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH SHOW PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. EXPECT THIS DRY
AIR IS DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH AND SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP...BUT CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WILL
DRIVE OVERCAST SKY COVER AND PERIODIC SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTN. BY THIS EVENING...COLUMN WILL ONCE AGAIN SATURATE AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWN VIA THE 09Z SREF
PLUMES...HIGHEST ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST...WHERE RAINFALL OF 2-4"
HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN RAINFALL THIS EVE...NE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...NE WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME COMMON TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THIS WILL FALL BELOW WI.Y
THRESHOLDS...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER AN SPS FOR ISOLATED WIND
IMPACTS...INCLUDING TREE DAMAGE ON THE SATURATED GROUND...WITH THE
AFTN PACKAGE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BARELY MOVE THANKS TO THE COOL NE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...AND EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...BUT SOME
LOW 60S ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND NEAR THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER. DIURNAL RANGES WILL ALSO BE LIMITED...AND THUS MINS
TONIGHT WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM STORM SYSTEM TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THEN IS HOW FAR INLAND
RAIN MANAGES TO SPREAD AND WHAT THE AMOUNTS END UP LOOKING LIKE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THAT
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IF SSTS DO NOT INHIBIT
VERTICAL MIXING IN THE STRONG ONSHORE JETTING. BL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LESS OF AN INLAND PUSH OF MOISTURE. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT THATS ABOUT IT.
MONDAY BRINGS MID LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SLOW TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IF THE
INVERSION SHOWN IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOPS TO HELP TRAP IT.
THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR IN WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF LIMITED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FLUX. HEIGHT RISES ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY OFFSETTING ANY
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...WHICH THERE DOESNT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF
ANYWAY. LATE WEEK TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE HIGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS
AT KFLO/KLBT HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES. VSBYS ARE
VFR...BUT VSBYS AT KILM/KLBT HAVE BEEN MVFR/IFR IN -DZ -RA AND BR.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING FROM S-N...SHOWERS
ARE REDEVELOPING TO THE SE OF KILM. THE LATEST HRRR SLINGS THIS NW
INTO KILM THEN KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KILM/KLBT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT KILM DUE TO SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AS WELL....WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KLBT DUE TO SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ENE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW PASSES EAST THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. PERIODS OF VFR
COULD OCCUR BY 12Z BUT KEPT CIGS MVFR ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA IS DRAPING
A COASTAL FRONT NE INTO THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
STRENGTHEN DOWN THE COAST. THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL DRIVE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT THE WEAKEST
WINDS ARE...SURPRISINGLY...AT FRYING PAN SHOALS WHICH IS SE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THUS EXPERIENCING THE WEAKEST GRADIENT. BUOYS
41036...41037...AND 41038 ARE ALL WEST OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE NE
WINDS OF 20-30 KTS THIS MORNING. THESE NE WINDS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO EVEN THOUGH GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET
YET...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL BE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW ON THE HIGHER WINDS...RISING
FROM THE CURRENT 4-7 FT...TO AS MUCH AS 7-10 FT TONIGHT...WITH 12+
FT EXPECTED AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE TYPICAL WAVE SHADOW REGION ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST...WHERE 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WITH FLAGS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THOSE FLAGS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GALE WARNING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO ERODE
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THAT WILL LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...COULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE WAVES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND LARGE. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY
SHOULD DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING
SEAS COULD MAKE IT UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLAGS ARE LOWERED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BACKING WIND ON TUESDAY ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SURGE
THAT COULD NECESSITATE A BRIEF ADVISORY BUT THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE
PRETTY QUICKLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOL AIR HAS TROUBLE
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THUS THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF WHICH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
HOWEVER DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AND BE FOUND CENTERED UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
107 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED
ON THE NOON METARS AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER. FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TO THE MAX OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS SPILLING NORTH INTO AKRON CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE CIRRUS WILL SCOOT IN FROM THE WEST AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUNNY WILL HANDLE IT.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS...LOWERED THEM A LITTLE BASED
ON THE NOON MTR`S AND THE HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO
THE SOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER. FOR SUNDAY THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET...
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WERE DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE CHOPPY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
ONCE AGAIN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER PREVENTING ANY ATTEMPT AT PRECIP FROM
REALLY REACHING THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH MID LEVEL
WAVE SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN CONTINUED WEAKENING
SUPPORT...HAVE PULLED ANY MEASURABLE POPS FROM THE MORNING. WILL
CARRY A FEW SPRINKLES FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO PULL ALL
PRECIP MENTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...POISED JUST WEST
OF THE CWA AT 08Z. EVEN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR A KMML-KFSD-KYKN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COOLING. WITH FAIR MIXING IN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AS WELL AS GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER
LOW LEVELS...SHOULD STILL SEE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR WARMER RAP AND BIAS-CORRECTED RAW MODEL TEMPS FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN 80+ DEGREE READING IN OUR FAR SOUTH THOUGH
KEEPING HIGHS JUST SHY FOR NOW. MIXY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM TEMPS
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EAST OF HIGHWAY
60 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH APPROACH OF BOUNDARY...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS
SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
WILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH INSTABILITY
PRETTY WEAK SO WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. BOUNDARY
SAGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND STALLS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE BOUNDARY...AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE GETTING KICKED OUT OF SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...SO POPS LIKEWISE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EXPECT ANY NIGHTTIME SHOWERS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KFSD. AMERICAN
MODELS QUITE A BIT MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP AMOUNTS THAN GEM/ECMWF...
WHICH ALSO DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...AND THUS TRIMMED HIGHEST POPS BACK INTO LIKELY RANGE.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CWA...WHILE DRIER AIR/LIGHT WINDS IN OUR NORTHWEST ALLOW READINGS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT UP INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE AND BETTER INSTABILITY NUDGES INTO OUR
SOUTH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY
WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER. AREAS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ACTUALLY HAVE A DECENT DAY ON SUNDAY AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WHILE
AREAS AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS WILL ONLY MAKE IT UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY FINALLY
BEGINS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO THE
EAST...WITH AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
TOWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGHWAY CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SIOUX CITY TO STORM
LAKE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK A BIT IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BOTH DAYS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
ON MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING AND WINDS RUNNING AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
INTO THE EXTENDED...MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S NUDGES
EASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE BULLSEYE FOR BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTAL DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. DOES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY WINDY
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND THE KSUX AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT
CHANCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THE ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED FOR
NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW OF INTEREST CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTH AND EASTWARD IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
WV AND HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND IS AIDING IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN PART DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MUCH OF
THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE GROUND. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM RAP ANALYSIS
TOP DOWN MOISTENING IS HAPPENING BUT NOT IN AN EXTREME HURRY. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH FOR WHEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 60 FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA BUT HAVE CHANGED THE WX CATEGORY TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A MENTION OF ISO THUNDER AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLOW TO STEEPEN AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PASSED TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS AND THE TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED SLIGHTLY ON HOW TO HANDLE IT BUT AGREE IN
DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THE DRYLINE BEGIN TO
CONVECT. THE NAM/TTU WRF SHOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFS
FIRES CONVECTION NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW I HAVE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR A BIT FARTHER WEST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/TTU WRF. CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...MID
LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH
WILL INCREASE OVERALL CAPE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS IN QUESTION
AS THE SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS TOMORROW. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TOMORROW FOR THE SUN TO SHINE THROUGH
HELPING TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP AID IN
HAIL GROWTH PRODUCING LOW END SEVERE HAIL. SOME STRONG WINDS
REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATM AND WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALDRICH
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
WORKED OVER BY EVENING AND WITH DECREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM OR SO.
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS INTO THE NIGHT
THOUGH...GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FROM WEST
TO EAST. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES AND ALSO
PERHAPS IN THE NW...BUT WE/VE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR NOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS WHILE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SERLY
FETCH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES SHOULD INDUCE A
NICE LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO WTX. THE GFS STILL IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
ALL THE WAY TO THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME MORNING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRYLINE WILL FORM
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND BOTH CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GOOD QPF SIGNAL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP OVER THE DRYLINE...GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY PROGGING TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WHICH MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THIS
CAP. WE ARE FORECASTING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS BASED ON THE
PATTERN...AND WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LIKELY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM UP ACROSS THE WEST...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING VEERED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WTX
SHUNTING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOISTURE HOLDING IN AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE/LL KEEP THE DRY FCST
RUNNING WHILE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 74 49 77 49 / 60 20 10 10 0
TULIA 54 75 52 78 51 / 30 30 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 54 75 54 80 52 / 40 30 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 54 76 54 80 52 / 60 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 57 77 55 81 53 / 60 30 20 10 0
DENVER CITY 55 78 55 79 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 56 78 54 80 53 / 60 20 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 58 80 58 82 55 / 30 40 30 10 10
SPUR 57 79 59 84 55 / 30 40 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 58 79 60 85 56 / 30 40 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1251 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED
BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UPDATED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS ANOTHER CAT OR TWO ESPCLY NORTH/EAST
GIVEN MORE BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLDNS ONGOING NORTH OF THE
PERSISTENT RAINBAND ACROSS NW NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADIENT
BETWEEN MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO PERHAPS ONLY AROUND 50 FAR SW WHERE
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CONTINUE. ALSO LOWERED POPS IN SOUTHERN VA TO
REFLECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHILE
MAINTAINING CAT POPS WATAUGA/WIKLES AND YADKIN CTYS.
AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ELONGATED BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LATEST MORNING
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG NE FLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS EVIDENCED VIA THE RNK RAOB. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HRRR SOLN THAT
ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT ALL THE PRECIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GFS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MORE EASTERLY
INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ONLY DRIFTS TO OFF THE
SE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOME SUN NORTH...TO CLOUDS CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF -RA VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH AS THE BAND TENDS TO STRETCH OUT WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING CAT/LIKELY POPS A
WHILE LONGER ACROSS MUCH OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WITH A
QUICK DROPOFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM JUST SOUTH OF HIWAY 460 AND
POINTS NORTH.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO
TOP 50 UNDER THE RAIN WHILE REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S FAR
NORTH/WEST WITH 56-63 BCB-ROA-LYH CORRIDOR PENDING DEGREE OF ANY
BREAKS. THUS INCREASED THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ALREADY
ABOVE HIGHS IN SPOTS NORTH OF THE MAIN RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DRIER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AT
ALL TAF SITES ATTM WITH MOSTLY A MID TO HIGH BKN/OVC CANOPY IN
PLACE. EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS STAYING ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE IN NW
NORTH CAROLINA AND JUST SOUTH OF DAN. MAY SEE SOME LOW END VFR
CIGS DEVELOP NORTH INTO DAN BEFORE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/PRECIP
STARTS TO JOG BACK NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY -RA ACROSS THE DAN VICINITY
AS WELL BUT OVERALL VFR WITH DRY WEATHER ELSW THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING PRECIP BACK NORTH AT LEAST INTO
DAN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH VFR CIGS NORTH TO ROA/LYH
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS COULD BE OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY
ADVECTION AND LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...WILL KEEP DAN HIGH END
MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VSBYS IN -RA LATER TONIGHT...AND MAINLY SCTD
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGHER MID DECK CIGS ELSW FROM BCB-ROA-LYH FOR
NOW.
NE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ESPCLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BRINGING GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES
INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAY STILL HAVE SOME MID DECK CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOW CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING PERIODS OF MVFR FOR TUESDAY.
FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE WEST VA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...JH/RAB/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1204 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOVING OFF THE
COAST BY MONDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED
BY BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UPDATED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS ANOTHER CAT OR TWO ESPCLY NORTH/EAST
GIVEN MORE BREAKS AND THINNING OF CLDNS ONGOING NORTH OF THE
PERSISTENT RAINBAND ACROSS NW NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADIENT
BETWEEN MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO PERHAPS ONLY AROUND 50 FAR SW WHERE
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CONTINUE. ALSO LOWERED POPS IN SOUTHERN VA TO
REFLECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WHILE
MAINTAINING CAT POPS WATAUGA/WIKLES AND YADKIN CTYS.
AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...
ELONGATED BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LATEST MORNING
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG NE FLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS EVIDENCED VIA THE RNK RAOB. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME
DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LATEST HRRR SOLN THAT
ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT ALL THE PRECIP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. GFS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MORE EASTERLY
INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ONLY DRIFTS TO OFF THE
SE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT FROM SOME SUN NORTH...TO CLOUDS CENTRAL
SECTIONS...WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF -RA VA/NC BORDER AND POINTS
SOUTH AS THE BAND TENDS TO STRETCH OUT WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING CAT/LIKELY POPS A
WHILE LONGER ACROSS MUCH OF NW NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA WITH A
QUICK DROPOFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM JUST SOUTH OF HIWAY 460 AND
POINTS NORTH.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO
TOP 50 UNDER THE RAIN WHILE REACHING THE LOW/MID 60S FAR
NORTH/WEST WITH 56-63 BCB-ROA-LYH CORRIDOR PENDING DEGREE OF ANY
BREAKS. THUS INCREASED THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ALREADY
ABOVE HIGHS IN SPOTS NORTH OF THE MAIN RAIN/CLOUD SHIELD ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW
MOVING...INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. FINALLY...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN HAVE ALL
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. EXPECT -RA TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
AN AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO WHERE IT IS...NAMELY
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM TNB-HLX-LYH. WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEE LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN FROM THESE POINTS...BUT BY THE SAME
TOKEN...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
TO THE COAST...ALLOWING DRIER NE FLOW TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH CLEARLY DEPICT A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NC THIS EVENING...PROLONGING THE
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND
CATEGORICAL AND EXTENDED LONGER INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND -RA...SOME WHAT OF AN INSITU WEDGE REINFORCED
WITH NE FLOW AROUND SE U.S. DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE...WILL
KEEP THE PIEDMONT THE COOLEST TODAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST AMONG THE MAV/MET/ECS. HOWEVER...EVEN
UNDERCUT IT BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY IN THE RAINY PIEDMONT AREAS. THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NC WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. THE WARMEST
AREAS TODAY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...LWB-BLF-
MKJ...WHERE LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT AND GENERALLY
E-SE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SC AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FOR EASTER SUNDAY...MAY SEE A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER
THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN A LIGHT AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW. WITH THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FOR MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES DESPITE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARMER AIR POOLING IN FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL MAKE FOR MILD MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN FORECAST MODELS ALL INDICATE DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP...WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS SUCH...CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...A FEW OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS POINT...BOTH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
IN CAA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OFF
AND DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...INCLUDING DAN. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH
ROA/LYH...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY. THE -RA CONTINUES TO FALL
OUT OF VFR CIGS...MOSTLY AOA 080 AT THIS TIME. VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN...BUT CIGS APPEAR
DESTINED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW END VFR LYH-DAN FOR A PERIOD LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS FURTHER EAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...SFC FLOW NOW NE AS OPPOSED TO
SE...WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST MAKING IT HARD TO REALIZE ANYTHING WORSE THAN VFR AT
THIS POINT. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DAN...BUT
ELSEWHERE DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH -RA TO WARRANT MENTION OF ANY VSBYS
LESS THAN VFR.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW. EXPECT ENE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFT 00Z...BUT LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR. FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
VFR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE
WEST VA.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS/NF
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1058 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
FORECAST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ONLY CONCERN IS THICK
CIRRUS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST INHIBITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. COOL NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL NOT HELP
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND WINDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH THAN MODELS EARLIER
PROJECTED. NAM AND GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
LIFTED INDEX AND LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...STEEP SURFACE BASED
LAPSE RATES WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM MENTION EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
TODAY...BUT KEPT IT GOING TO THE WEST WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE WILL
PRODUCE THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING EVEN EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING...LIGHTNING
CHANCES ARE REMOTE AT BEST. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL GRAUPLE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT LIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE AND THUS INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOW...BUT THE COMBO OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS.
LOOKS AS THOUGH AREAS FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
NAM PAINTS INSTABILITY AS HIGH AS 200 J/KG WITHIN THE
BEST...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SHOULD
SEE WETTING RAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.
FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO. TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE WHERE LLVL FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER A FEW TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5F COOLER. SFC WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SO MAY SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE VCTY LARAMIE RANGE. COOLER
SFC TEMPS AND WAA ALOFT DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
WILL MINIMIZE INSTABILITY AND THUS TSTORM CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
PRETTY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWFA. THESE
ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +4C MONDAY
AFTERNOON UP TO +8C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WARM
DAY TUESDAY WITH 80S RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WESTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...700MB WINDS BECOME
QUITE STRONG WITH THE GFS SHOW 50KTS AT 700MBS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
700MB CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 60MTRS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASES TO 70MTRS DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...AT LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6C ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
LOOK TO BE THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
AREAS EAST WILL BE IMPACTED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...SO KEPT THESE
AREAS DRY.
CONCERNS FOR WIND HEADLINES SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS. SHOULD BE AT
LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT THERE...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 18Z
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z FOR KCYS AND KRWL. FOLLOWED THIS
GUIDANCE IN TAFS. CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT TO KBFF AFTER 00Z...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON TSTMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND LESS
WIND. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. AFTER A COOLER DAY
MONDAY...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM