Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/18/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR FORECAST UPDATE
THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND
THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE REASON? NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
RAMPED UP TO OVER 7 MB OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE STRATUS DECK
TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND -- UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90. AT THE COAST AN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ WHERE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TO PUSH HIGHS 75-80.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
MONDAY BEFORE A BIG CHANGE HITS US ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA HELPING TO
DROP 700 MB TEMPS TO THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS THE ONE BIG QUESTION MARK, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GENERATED. IF THE MODELS VERIFY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO UNDER
4000 FEET AND INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE LEADING TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH. UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODELS, TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILLS. STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, BUT IT`S VERY INTERESTING FOR A LATE APRIL
SYSTEM!
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS
VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF
MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS HELPED TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND HAS ALSO HELPED TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OUT
WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER AND TEMPERATURES 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER YESTERDAY. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS DRYING AIRMASS WILL HELP TO SLOW THE RETURN
OF STRATUS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF COASTAL POINTS SUCH AS PT
SUR. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY WIND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
STEEP SEAS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/KBB
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR FORECAST UPDATE
THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND
THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE REASON? NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
RAMPED UP TO OVER 7 MB OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE STRATUS DECK
TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND -- UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90. AT THE COAST AN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ WHERE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TO PUSH HIGHS 75-80.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
MONDAY BEFORE A BIG CHANGE HITS US ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA HELPING TO
DROP 700 MB TEMPS TO THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS THE ONE BIG QUESTION MARK, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GENERATED. IF THE MODELS VERIFY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO UNDER
4000 FEET AND INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE LEADING TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH. UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODELS, TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILLS. STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, BUT IT`S VERY INTERESTING FOR A LATE APRIL
SYSTEM!
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS
VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF
MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/KBB
AVIATION: W PI
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR
THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN...THOUGH BEST ASCENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE MAIN BATCH OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF
THE CFWA. BUT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOCAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SPREADS INTO AREA. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS MORNING.
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND WILL SPREAD
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AIRMASS LOOKS
FAIRLY SUBSIDENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK...SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WARM UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NA
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS
A FAIR CHANCE OF EXTENDING WELL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL THEN BE WARMER AND DRIER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 10Z...BETTER CHANCE AT KAPA...WITH
PERHAPS CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5000 FEET AGL AT KAPA AND KBJC. VCSH
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WINDS TO BE BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY...MAY BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM NOW IS MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AM SEEING SOME BANDED PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
SHRA...DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DEWPOINTS STILL PRETTY LOW OVER
THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP COOL THINGS OFF THIS EVE AS WET BULB
IS REACHED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING ITS PEAK FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.
A COUPLE OF RECENT TRENDS ARE MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN IT
HAD BEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO MINUS
5 OR 6 AS OPPOSED TO THE MINUS 10 OR LOWER FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THIS IS POINTING AT THE SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT. BUT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6K
FEET...EXCEPT MAYBE ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE A PARTICULAR CHALLENGE SINCE
ELEVATIONS FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6000-
6500 FOOT RANGE. SO...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THIS EVE COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WET PAVEMENT
AND A FEW INCHES OF SLUSH. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE MIDDLE ROAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION
FOR THE EARLY EVE. BUT...HIGHER TRRN TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO
SPANISH PEAKS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW...MORE THAN SIX INCHES
FOR SOME AREAS.
OTHER ISSUE IS THE RECENT TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS FALLING
OVER THE SRN ZONES...THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF...FOR EXAMPLE...KEEP
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PIKES PK REGION. THE NAM
AND RUC..LOWER RES...KEEP HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS SO FAR...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP WITH AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMS FOR PIKES
PEAK...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SRN AND ERN SIDES WILL GET
A BIT MORE THIS EVE. MODELS ARE HITTING THE SRN SANGRES AND HIGHER
WETS PRETTY HARD THROUGH 06-08Z TONIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED UPGRADING
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT SINCE THE LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER
GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO BE PRETTY HIGH UP AND SPOTTY. SO...ADVISORIES
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM TRENDS
PRETTY CAREFULLY.
WILL SEE THE SYSTEM CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY FROM N TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. BALANCE OF
THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CLOSED LOW MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC...ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS AN OPEN
TROF. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND
A COLD FRONT...THOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT COOL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z. GFS IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A JUST A TAD MOISTER. EITHER
WAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AGAIN...PROBABLY AROUND
9.5-10KFT...SO BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN
SCARS CLOSELY FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO. FOR NOW
THOUGH...THINK THAT GFS PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE...AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AS MODEL CAPE
VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS HIGHER CAPE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST.
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY...SO AFTER
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK A LITTLE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS OF FUELS...MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS DAY. OTHERWISE...DRY LINE WILL BE LURKING NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF...SEEM TO SUGGEST A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND LESS OF A PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE DRYLINE JUST TO OUR
EAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR WED AS GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
EC DOES NOT HAVE...SO JURY IS STILL OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THIS EVE. KCOS WILL BE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIP...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL GO DOWN TO IFR CIGS
AND/OR VIS FOR THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. KPUB WILL FOLLOW SUIT...ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO LATER AS PRECIP SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND 5500-6000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KALS COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT
WILL BE ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES...WETS...AND PIKES PEAK. CLEARING
CONDITIONS THU MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF FG OR BR FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE PRECIP EARLY ON. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS BRIEFLY WENT NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...BUT NOW TRENDING MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS A BIT
GUSTY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL AS ALONG
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WEB CAMS STILL INDICATING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. MAY ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
AIRMASS COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
SPREADS INTO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WILL ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WHEN MID LEVEL ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. LATEST
MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH
FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER.
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PARK COUNTY AND
PALMER DIVIDE WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. WILL
KEEP THE LOW POPS FOR THE DENVER AREA NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE EVENING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
FRONT HAS PASSED AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LATEST RAP AND HRRR INDICATING WINDS TO REMAIN A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY. WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
TAFS SEEM REASONABLE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 21Z...MAINLY AT KAPA AND
KBJC. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH. CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET AGL FOR A SHORT TIME...MAINLY AT KAPA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND LATEST STLT IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH LESS
CLOUDS EXCEPT OVER LOWER DEL AND EXTREME SRN NJ, HAVE OPTED TO
BROADEN THE FROST ADVISORY. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE WIND CURRENTLY REMAINS UP WHICH IS
A NEGATING FACTOR AND THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR
THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE, SO CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL, BUT
CERTAINLY WHERE IT STAYS MOSTLY CLEAR, THE FROST ADVISORY SEEMS A
GOOD BET. OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.
A GFS/WRF-NMMB BLEND SEEMED TO WORK BEST OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND MODELING INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IMPACT UNFORTUNATELY IS
COMING FROM NON SOUNDING LOCATIONS AND THUS ADDS A LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS.
THE MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN, THE RAP HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON IT
THAN THE PLAN FORECAST MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB.
IT WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
BASED ON THE RAP`S PREMISE WE SEE THAT MIXING IS FINALLY STOPPING
THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATOCU CIG. BUT, WE EXPECT THIS
PROCESS TO START ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION AND IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD. EAST OF THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB RIDGE AXIS LINE IS A PROXY TO
WHERE THE CIGS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS AXIS
SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO GO. BASED ON
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE OPTED
TO CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVISORY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE HEADLINES WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NJ.
WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST (IN THE HWO TOO) IN
LOCALES FARTHER TO THE SE (BUT NOT IN CENTRAL/LOWER DELMARVA). BEING
CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD AND WIND IDEA, FOR MIN TEMPS WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE EAST AND CLOSER TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE 925MB LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF MAINE AND EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS IS
DESTINED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NESTLED PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR
CWA. WE ARE EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUD CIG TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. THIS IN PART WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE LATEST RIDGE AXIS POSITION, WE REMOVED THE LOW CHC OF PCPN
NEAR THE COAST. AWAY FROM THE COAST WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND MORE OF A BLEND CLOSER TO AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR OUR REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY BRING SMALL CHC
FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD
SOME SHOWERS IN FOR FRI NIGHT ALSO...BUT WE HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FCST ATTM...SINCE THE CHC LOOKS LESS WITH THE MEAGER AMTS OF
LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL FOR FRI WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SAT THRU MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WED. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S FOR PHILADELPHIA. UP ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE POCONOS AN NRN NJ...THE NORMALS ARE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE FOR PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR AS CLOUD BANK OFF THE COAST HAS
DISSIPATED. OTHER CLOUDS IN SRN DEL, EXTREME SRN NJ REMAIN S OF
THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO HOW FAR N AND W THESE
CLOUDS WILL GET, BUT AM INDICATING T LEAST SOME MVFR FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR S AND E.
ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A
CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT. SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD COMPONENT) THAN TODAY AND A SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. SCA CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. THE WIND PART OF THE
SCA SHOULD ALSO END OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT. BUT, SEAS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS WE ARE EXPECTING
THEM TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
MON THRU TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-
106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
015>022-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
954 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH FRI MORNING...
...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WAS PROVIDING A GUSTY NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW. THE NORTHEAST COMPONENT
HAS CONFINED THE HIGHEST DEW POINT AIR TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST. ATLANTIC SHOWERS
HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LIGHT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED DOWNPOURS. THE HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AS POORLY DEFINED WARM
FRONT GETS PULLED NORTH BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOCAL WRF STILL SHOWS A CHANCE FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AND HEAVIER RAINFALL SOUTH OF CANAVERAL AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH. WILL BUMP POPS UP THERE TO 40 PERCENT.
FRI...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW. EXTRAPOLATION FROM THIS MODEL SHOWS THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE WEST COAST IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INDICATED SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE GULF.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. RIGHT NOW WE
ARE CALLING FOR LOW PROBABILITIES OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS UP THE PENINSULA AND PRODUCES
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. CEILINGS WILL LIFT BY FRI
AFTERNOON AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS EXISTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS PRESENTLY AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 6-9 FEET. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
REACH NORTH OF THE WATERS BY LATE MORNING FRI. MARINE MOS INDICATES
THE TRANSITION FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z AT
41009. THERE IS A CORRESPONDING DROP OFF OF WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL
AT LEAST 10 AM FRI AND IN THE NORTH TO 4 PM FRI...DUE TO NEAR 20
KNOT FLOW AND SEAS NEAR 7 FEET. THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD DROP
OFF TO 15 KNOTS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POOR THERE FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE
BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)
THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
BNB
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 84 72 86 / 30 50 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 85 75 87 / 30 40 50 40
MIAMI 73 85 74 86 / 30 40 50 40
NAPLES 70 87 69 79 / 20 50 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)
THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
BNB
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 84 72 86 / 30 50 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 85 75 87 / 30 40 50 40
MIAMI 73 85 74 86 / 30 40 50 40
NAPLES 70 87 69 79 / 20 50 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LAST EVENING HAS
NOW STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH, THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ONSHORE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FOR THE FLOW TO ENCOUNTER AND AID IN THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY. THIS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH THE HRRR INDICATING THIS AND EVEN A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THE PROBABILITY OF
LIGHTNING IS TOO LOW BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IF
PATTERNS APPEAR TO BE CHANGING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE KEYS WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND
TO A EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERRUNNING SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...EXCEPT A
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE POPS WILL
THEN BE RAISED TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING INTO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY AS THE 500 MB TEMP COOLS DOWN TO -12C OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. SO WILL INCREASE THE POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHBOEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...DUE TO A SHORT
WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE 500 MB
TEMPS REMAINING COOL IN THE -10 TO -12C RANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SO
THE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE DRY WEATHER TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING ALL BUT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS AT 12Z...AND
LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOK FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO SCOUR SOME CLOUDS AWAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING...WHEN
VCSH IS FORECAST. UNTIL THEN...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT...FOR NOW KEPT CLOUDS ABOVE 3KFT.
MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS OVER THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO THE SEAS IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 7
FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 FEET ALONG WITH THE GULF SEAS.
CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY...APRIL 15...MIAMI TIED A DAILY HIGH MINIMUM OF
76F...LAST REACHED IN 1999.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 72 83 72 / 20 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 75 84 75 / 30 40 50 30
MIAMI 82 74 85 74 / 40 50 50 30
NAPLES 83 68 87 68 / 20 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
918 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO COAST PER WV SAT IMAGERY
TONIGHT. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEADILY MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. BAND OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL PRIMED TO SLIDE INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS COULD STILL SEE SOME RAINFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST HRRR AND RUC/RAP RUNS PUSHING BAND OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION BUT TRUE FRONT LAGS
BEHIND SLIGHTLY. AIRMASS NOT REALLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DESPITE LIGHTNING OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AT THIS TIME WHERE BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LOCATED.
WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN ESPECIALLY LEANING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE NOW HITTING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AT 15Z WHICH APPEARS TO BE BEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND SHORTLY
BEHIND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE LATEST GFS UPDATE BEFORE NUDGING GRIDS FURTHER
TOWARD ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A PAC DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NE COASTAL WATERS WITH
ATTENDING MOISTURE LIFTING NE ACROSS WASHINGTON/OREGON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE PUSHING INLAND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INTO SE
IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WYOMING AND NRN UTAH WITH A RAPIDLY DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NUMERICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS AND A LOCAL STUDY SHOW A SUB-WIND ADVISORY EVENT
FOR FRIDAY WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THUS NO HEADLINES WERE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AND WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS FOR ANY REQUIRED UPDATES. A BROAD...RELATIVELY DRY WEST
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EACH AFTERNOON. HUSTON
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT WARM
CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH A COOL DOWN BEGINNING TUESDAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
COOL AIR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GK
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME
10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AT IDA. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT IDA AND PIH. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BYI...PIH AND IDA ON FRIDAY. GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
313 AM CDT
WEATHER WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ATTENTION ON
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND THEN SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY DAY YESTERDAY IS
ADVANCING EAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF AT LEAST 22 STATES UNDER FREEZE WARNINGS
THIS MORNING! STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING IS SEEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN GULF AND AT THE SURFACE THE DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED
SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WITH SEVERAL PLATFORMS/BUOYS
REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. SO BASICALLY THE GULF IS NOT
AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE A MAIN REASON WE LOOK TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.
THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE THAT
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SD THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW ITS PARENT JET
STREAK/DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHERE A SNOW STORM IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI/U.P.
OF MICHIGAN.
THE QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM SURFACE LOW BY
AFTERNOON WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MIXING WILL AID THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN CREATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS PLUS
10 MPH OF THAT. SOME 35 MPH GUSTS SHOULD EVEN BE REALIZED IN NORTH
CENTRAL IL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOUNCE BACK 15 DEGREES OR EVEN
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION. A SLIGHT COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE INTO CITY OF
CHICAGO AND NORTHWARD WILL KEEP THESE LAKE ADJACENT AREAS A HANDFUL
OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT COMPARED TO 33 DEGREES YESTERDAY...THE
FORECAST OF AROUND 50 TODAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE WELCOME.
OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 50S. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL/IN INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY...SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS TODAY WITH
HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH AS WELL AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASCENT HERE REMAINS
WITHIN A LOW PWAT ATMOSPHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
RADAR ECHOES/VIRGA ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT
IT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
CONTINUING...LOWS LOOK TO ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE SYSTEM SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME STATIONARY. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A VERY PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. HAVE CONSIDERABLY
LOWERED CLOUD COVER DURING THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND
WITH THAT BOOSTED TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH 55 TO 60 PROBABLE. A
SHEARING UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOOK AT THE DPROG/DT...OR TREND...OF SEVERAL
MODELS OVER THE PAST FOUR CYCLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS FORCING AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST
TREND TO CUT BACK POPS BUT ALSO TO CONFINE THE AREA WHERE
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. BY FRIDAY
THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE HAS FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ONE
FINAL SEPARATE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SEEN ON THE NCEP MODELS PASSES OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THIS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO
OUTLYING AREAS...WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S PRESENTLY FORECAST ACROSS
THAT CROSS SECTION. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RESEARCH FAVORS SUCH A
SPREAD THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHILE THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN
CANADA IT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF GOING
TOWARD THE EC AND GEM WHICH WE HAVE LEANED OUR FORECAST. THESE
MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
DEPICTED BY MODELS LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE ROCKIES...MORE SO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* STRONG SSE WINDS AND GUSTS POSING POTENTIAL CROSSWIND ISSUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LLWS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS DIMINISH.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTING ACROSS IOWA INTO WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SSE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY.
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SFC COOLING AND BETTER LOW
LEVEL STABILITY...THOUGH STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY CREATE MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING
THEN AROUND TO THE WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTER THE LOW CROSSES LAKE
SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR LOW UNTIL LATE TOMORROW.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT FOR LLWS TONIGHT.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHC RAIN. MVFR PSBL.
FRIDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN.
MONDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
TUESDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO SET UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 KT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE
SURFACE. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE IT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1021 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
Low pressure in South Dakota will move east into Iowa and then
northeast toward Lake Huron. As it progresses, a warm front will
lift across IL, putting our forecast area in the warm sector by
this evening. During the day, southerly winds will increase as the
pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and the
SD low. 12z RAP forecast soundings show mixing heights up to
825-850 mb. That should allow momentum transfer of wind speeds
around 25 mph with some gusts to 35 mph. We expect to remain below
wind advisory criteria of 30-39 mph sustained winds for an hour or
more. Peak winds appear to be in the Noon to 3 pm time frame.
Mixing of dry air from the mid levels will help the surface temps
climb about 10 to 15 deg warmer than yesterday. Lightly filtered
sunshine will also help boost high temps, with readings in the mid
to upper 50s by 3-4 pm.
We should remain dry until the cold front pushes across IL
sometime late Thursday/Thursday night. Still, limited moisture
will keep rain chances and amounts on the low side.
Our current forecast grids look on track over the next 12-24 hours,
especially temps, dewpoints, winds and sky. No formal update will
be needed this morning.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014
pressure gradient between 1032 MB high over the eastern Great
Lakes and a slowly filling Great Plains low is producing winds
gusts around 30 kts at terminals at midday. Gust should diminish
slowly this afternoon as high moves further east and the low
continues to fill. Winds should diminish even more quickly around
00z. A weak pre-frontal trough associated with the low is expected
to move into Illinois Thursday afternoon and produce a wind shift
to the northwest.
An increase in clouds and the development of CIGs is likely
late tonight and Thursday as a series of fast-moving northern
stream waves move across the Midwest. low-level moisture is
lacking and any CIGs are expected to remain IFR.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
Winds will increase markedly across central Illinois today as
gradient tightens between departing high pressure system and low
tracking from the Dakotas into southern Minnesota. Models are not
quite as strong with the winds as they were in previous runs, so
am not concerned about reaching Wind Advisory criteria. BUFKIT
momentum transfer at KPIA shows 33kt winds at the top of the mixed
layer this afternoon, as opposed to 43kt on the prior run just 24
hours ago. Despite this decrease in momentum, think S/SE winds
will gust to between 30 and 35mph across the western half of the
KILX CWA, with gusts to around 25mph further east near the
Indiana border. This strong southerly flow will help bring much
warmer air into the region. Extent of warming will be mitigated
somewhat by an easterly component to the wind and mixing heights
lowering to less than 5000ft. Resulting afternoon highs will range
from the middle 50s east to around 60 far west.
As southern Minnesota low lifts toward Lake Superior, it will
drag a weak cold front into the Illinois River Valley by dawn
Thursday. This boundary will become stationary along the I-55
corridor during the day Thursday, creating little in the way of
sensible weather. A mid-level short-wave will approach from the
southwest late in the day and will eventually interact with the
front to perhaps produce a few light showers. Current surface
analysis shows a very dry air mass has settled across the eastern
half of the CONUS all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. In fact,
buoys in the northern Gulf are currently showing dew points as low
as the middle to upper 30s. With so much dry air to the south, do
not think front will have enough moisture to work with in order to
produce precip across the area on Thursday. GFS is the only model
that is holding on to QPF across the Illinois River Valley
Thursday afternoon, but think this is overdone. Will therefore go
with a dry forecast across the board. There are even some
indications that dry conditions will continue Thursday night into
Friday as the upper wave arrives. At this point, will leave chance
PoPs for showers in the forecast Thursday night into Friday
morning as synoptic lift associated with the wave will likely be
enough to squeeze a few light showers out of the dry air mass. Once
the wave passes, dry weather will return Friday afternoon and
night.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
After a warm/dry day on Saturday, attention turns to next
approaching system for early next week. Models have been trending
slower with its approach, with most 00z Apr 16 guidance suggesting
Easter Sunday may remain largely dry. GFS is the most aggressive
model in driving precip eastward into the area, but even it has
backed off and keeps rain at bay until Sunday afternoon at the
earliest. GEM focuses best rain chances Sunday night into Monday,
while ECMWF is even slower and advertises mainly a Monday rain
event. As a result of the distinct slowing trend, have trimmed
PoPs accordingly. Will keep Saturday night and Sunday morning dry,
then will bring chance PoPs into the picture across the western
CWA Sunday afternoon. Will highlight the Sunday night/Monday time
frame with the highest PoPs, followed by a return to dry weather
on Tuesday. Aside from the early week rain chances, the extended
forecast will feature warmer weather, with model guidance
suggesting temps reaching the 70s by Tuesday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
1024 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1021 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST INTO IOWA AND THEN
NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE HURON. AS IT PROGRESSES, A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS IL, PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
THIS EVENING. DURING THE DAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
SD LOW. 12Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
825-850 MB. THAT SHOULD ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WE EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30-39 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR
MORE. PEAK WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE NOON TO 3 PM TIME FRAME.
MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS WILL HELP THE SURFACE TEMPS
CLIMB ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LIGHTLY FILTERED
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS, WITH READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S BY 3-4 PM.
WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IL
SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL, LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
ESPECIALLY TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, WINDS AND SKY. NO FORMAL UPDATE WILL
BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 556 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS TAF SET. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR ALL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME EVEN HIGHER AT
KPIA. WE WILL LOSE THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
STILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD, WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOW
TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS ARE NOT
QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE WINDS AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS, SO
AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AT KPIA SHOWS 33KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, AS OPPOSED TO 43KT ON THE PRIOR RUN JUST 24
HOURS AGO. DESPITE THIS DECREASE IN MOMENTUM, THINK S/SE WINDS
WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
KILX CWA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH FURTHER EAST NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER. THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXTENT OF WARMING WILL BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND MIXING HEIGHTS
LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5000FT. RESULTING AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 FAR WEST.
AS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LOW LIFTS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR, IT WILL
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, CREATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT TO PERHAPS PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT,
BUOYS IN THE NORTHERN GULF ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING DEW POINTS AS LOW
AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH, DO
NOT THINK FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO
PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL
THAT IS HOLDING ON TO QPF ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
INDICATIONS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT, WILL LEAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE DRY AIR MASS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTER A WARM/DRY DAY ON SATURDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER WITH ITS APPROACH, WITH MOST 00Z APR 16 GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EASTER SUNDAY MAY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN DRIVING PRECIP EASTWARD INTO THE AREA, BUT EVEN IT HAS
BACKED OFF AND KEEPS RAIN AT BAY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
EARLIEST. GEM FOCUSES BEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WHILE ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND ADVERTISES MAINLY A MONDAY RAIN
EVENT. AS A RESULT OF THE DISTINCT SLOWING TREND, HAVE TRIMMED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DRY,
THEN WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE PICTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME
FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY WEEK RAIN CHANCES, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL FEATURE WARMER WEATHER, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING TEMPS REACHING THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR EVEN A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FILL/WEAKEN WITH ISALLABARIC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST PRESSURE
FALLS IN SW WI. IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A CLASSIC MATURE COMMA
HEAD SHAPE TO THIS MID LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A STRONG VORT MAX WAS NOTED IN NORTHEAST NEB. ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM AND MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
IN THE WARM SECTOR THE AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ALL THE WAY FROM
IA TO TX. THERE WAS ALSO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO WI THIS EVENING THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
MESO MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING AS PVA SWEEPS THROUGH...BUT
WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE DRY LOW LEVELS WIN
THE BATTLE.
FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TARGET SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.
SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.
STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.
SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.
STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED 14Z-17Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POTENTIAL UNTIL WINDS INCREASE MID MORNING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL PER NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
IA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EVENING BEFORE VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.
SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.
STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE KCID VICINITY JUST BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT
SURE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT WENT AHEAD AND
DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN
INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS
ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE
LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS
FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP
OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:
RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)
RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:
RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
STILL COLD AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER
TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE
WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT DID
DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
COLL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT
WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO WILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE
POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK
INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:
RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)
RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:
RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.
SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.
MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
/5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.
SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.
MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
/5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BEGIN COLD/WINTRY AS SHORTWAVE
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BTWN DEPARTING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID APR AND WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY
MODERATE AS DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR LIFT TO
GREENLAND...AND PACIFIC AIR MAKES INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND SRN CANADA. HEADING DOWN THE ROAD...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE AROUND NORMAL...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BLO NORMAL DURING THE TEMP SWINGS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM GEM ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS THAT THE PATTERN
MAY BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WHICH WILL MEAN
RAINFALL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EVENTS. HOPEFULLY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE AVOIDED AS THE SNOWMELT SEASON RESUMES.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT...A HVY/WET SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS...MODELS THAT HAD MAX QPF AXIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S AND E. RESULT IS IMPROVING
MODEL AGREEMENT NOW ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SET UP. IT
APPEARS MAX QPF AXIS SHOULD RUN ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE HURON MTNS. THE NAM IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NW OF
THIS AXIS WHILE THE GEM REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC ARE DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
LAKES...BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER FROM
ERN MN E AND NE NTO UPPER MI BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO EASTWARD WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF BRIEF UPPER JET COUPLING
WITH LEFT EXIT OF JET SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOTED WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4G/KG AVBL AROUND
700-750MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH NEGATIVE
EPV/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOTED OVERTOP THE FGEN. FINALLY...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ADVECTING INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE
PCPN AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER BANDING OF
SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MDT/HVY PCPN AREA OR EVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW AT
TIMES...CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR SPRINGTIME HVY SNOW EVENTS.
ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL HINGE ON WHERE THESE
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SET UP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...LOCATIONS W OF KIMT/KMQT LINE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT...PROBABLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADVY ISSUED FOR NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES E MAY IN
FACT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. FINALLY...
EVEN THE FAR E COUNTIES OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO AN ADVY IF THE E TREND HOLDS UP IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS.
PCPN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY THU AND WILL LIKELY END. SFC HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THU NIGHT...AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER EXPANDING OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR
OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI
UNDER MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD EVEN DEVELOP. FRI HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S N WITH A CHILLY WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY
AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC IN LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW...THOUGH AGREEMENT IS
IMPROVING WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS. GEM IS STRONGER WITH WAVE AND
IS HEAVIER WITH THE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECWMF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM NOW. SOME -RA POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
W SAT AFTN...THEN SPREAD E SAT NIGHT/SUN. WITH WETTER TRENDS
NOTED...WILL TRENDING POPS UP TO CHC.
MON/TUE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TROF DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS WHILE TROF SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE/HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS
OF HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY VERIFIES BETTER. RESULT IS A COOLER
THAN GFS SCENARIO...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS. IF ANY
MINOR WAVES TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE ERN TROF...THERE MAY
BE SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN MON OR TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. POPULATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DEEPENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A VORT LOBE
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN AROUND
06-10 UTC. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY. UPDATED
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DID
BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HAVE
DISSIPATED WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRISK SE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR..INDICATING A 500MB SHEARED VORTICITY AXIS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH) IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO
MONTANA WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH A SHOWALTER
INDEX NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THE MOST THURSDAY...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS CLOSING OFF A POTENT LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE 12 UTC
ECMWF ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE SIGNIFICANT QPF IS
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODERATE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUST
TO 35 MPH. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL.
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS TONIGHT FOR NOW
UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. IT APPEARS
IF ANYTHING...MAY ADD A VCSH AT KISN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY WITH
A MENTION OF RAIN AT WILLISTON AROUND 22 UTC FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DEEPENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A VORT LOBE
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN AROUND
06-10 UTC. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY. UPDATED
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DID
BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HAVE
DISSIPATED WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRISK SE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR..INDICATING A 500MB SHEARED VORTICITY AXIS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH) IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO
MONTANA WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH A SHOWALTER
INDEX NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THE MOST THURSDAY...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS CLOSING OFF A POTENT LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE 12 UTC
ECMWF ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE SIGNIFICANT QPF IS
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODERATE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUST
TO 35 MPH. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL.
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS TONIGHT FOR NOW
UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA ON PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. BETTER
CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE FRIDAY WITH A MENTION OF RAIN AT
WILLISTON AROUND 22 UTC FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
TEMPS ARE WARMING A BIT MORE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH
SUNSHINE...SO WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME HERE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGES
PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
VFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WHERE CIGS
HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
EASTERLY AIR TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND NO STRATUS DECK TO
THE NORTH TO ADVECT IN...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. GUSTY
ENE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF. WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS. THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.
COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH A BAND OF SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO THE HEAVIEST BAND SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA.
THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD GET A BAND OF 2-5 INCHES THOUGH...MAINLY
CONFINED TO GRANT/SOUTHEAST OTTERTAIL AND SOUTHERN WADENA
COUNTIES. SO THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY HERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
KFAR VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES VIS WITH THE SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
VIS GOING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS SNOW DISSIPATES. KEPT SNOW
MENTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KEPT THEM VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. KDVL...KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE MVFR OR EVEN LOWER AT
TIMES WITH SNOW BANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL COME UP BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
TWEAKED POPS AS THE BAND THAT DROPPED ABOUT AN INCH IN FARGO
BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE BAND BROUGHT 2-3 INCHES IN PARTS OF
WADENA AND OTTERTAIL COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
DEFORMATION BAND CLOSELY. STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT IF THERE IS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH THERE
COULD BE MORE THAN SIX INCHES IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
GIVEN THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
KFAR VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES VIS WITH THE SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
VIS GOING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS SNOW DISSIPATES. KEPT SNOW
MENTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KEPT THEM VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. KDVL...KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE MVFR OR EVEN LOWER AT
TIMES WITH SNOW BANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL COME UP BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN SD BY 12Z WED
AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL 15 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS BEST SHOT OF ANY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS REMAIN IN
FARGO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TIL ABOUT LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE KEPT VFR CIGS BUT COULD BE ISOLD MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DVL
BASIN INTO GFK-BJI AREAS. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE
LEADS TO ME TO KEEP IT MOSTLY LOW END VFR THRU WED AFTN BEFORE
CLEARING MOVES SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE DIURNAL SHSN HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY JUST LAKE
EFFECT SHSN. STILL NOT GETTING AN HRRR MODEL RUNS BUT LATEST RUC
STILL HAS LAST OF MEASURABLE SHSN ENDING BY 05Z. BASED ON THE RUC
AND LATEST RADAR AND SAT PIX...LOOKS LIKE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS
IN LINE SO NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. FROM
HERE ON OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD JUST A HALF AN INCH
OR LESS HERE AND THERE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MID TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START A REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER AND A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE
GFS. I WILL WORK SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MORNING SHOWERS IN NW OHIO AND THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NE OH AND
NW PA. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW -2C FRIDAY NIGHT. WE MAY HAVE
TO WATCH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL. RIGHT NOW I WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A SHARP LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL OF SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY`S RIDGE
WILL ELEVATE POPS ACROSS THE TOLEDO METRO AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE LOW AS THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY LOOK LIKE
THE BETTER DAY FOR RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND DRAWS UP GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LAST OF THE COLD WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BEHIND
US WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEARLY NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS COOL ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT MOST OF THIS WILL BE GONE BY MORNING AS FLOW
WEAKENS AND AIRMASS DRIER FURTHER. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS AT
KYNG FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THEN LIFT TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE WIND ACROSS THE LAKE DIMINISHES IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH...THEN
GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR PASSAGE OVER LAKE ERIE EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.
TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
618 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NEAR GREEN BAY
WISCONSIN...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS
MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND HEADING EAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
PROVIDING COOL AND QUIET WEATHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IS VERY DRY SO
CONCERNED THE FOG MAY NOT FORM. ALSO...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...GUIDANCE ISN/T PICKING UP ON THE CLEARING THAT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO ITS STRUGGLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES LOW
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE
EYE ON CLOUD TRENDS AND DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION TODAY LIMITING MIXING...THE HIGH BUILDING IN TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...FOG
COULD BECOME A CONCERN. DECIDED TO ADD AREAS OF FOG TO NORTHERN
CLARK AND ALL OF TAYLOR COUNTY FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S TO TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH WILL CREATE
INCREASE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BUT CLOUD BASES LOOK
RATHER HIGH AT 8KFT WITH A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM -2 C TONIGHT TO 2 C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO 8 C OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE CLOUD WILL LIMIT SOME OF
THE HEATING TOMORROW BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SATURDAY PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS
ZONAL AND A TROUGH EDGES EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE A BIT CHALLENGING IN THE ZONAL
FLOW REGIME. LEANING TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS THINKING THE
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD EDGE INTO HE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORT WAVE THEN LIFTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A STRONGER WAVE FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND SHOVES THE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE REGION.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CAPE VALUES HOVERING IN THE 400-500 J/KG
RANGE...MAINLY ELEVATED. THESE CAPE VALUES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH ONLY WEAK SHEAR IN
PLACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE SEEING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE MAY
EVEN SEE A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. A VIGOROUS WAVE
LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A
LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS. GOING OFF OF
THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS IT APPEARS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COULD
LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO WIDE OPEN WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GET DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
ALSO LOOKING IMPRESSIVE...RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 KTS....AND 0-1KM
MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 1500 TO 2500 J/KG FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY A PERIOD TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
A TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST WITH MVFR CLOUDS STILL STUCK OVER THE
TAF SITES. SOME OF THE CLOUDS HAVE TURNED CELLULAR AROUND
RST...SUGGESTING THEY COULD CLEAR SHORTLY WITH SUNSET.
HOWEVER...OVER THE LAST 20 MINUTES...THE CELLULAR NATURE WAS
FILLING BACK IN. LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUDS IS PROGGED TO
TURN FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 03Z...FAVORING A
MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. PRESENTLY HAVE CLEARING OF 04Z AT RST AND 06Z AT
LSE...BUT THIS COULD NEED FURTHER DELAYING WITH THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTING CLEARING WAITS UNTIL ALMOST 09Z. ONCE CLEARING
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME ALTOSTRATUS MOVING ACROSS ON FRIDAY.
NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT. PLAN ON WINDS TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BELOW 10 KT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF
THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS FROM MINNESOTA INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS KEEPING RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT WABASHA AND
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT MCGREGOR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND A
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AND ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THE END OF APRIL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MIXING WILL CONTINUE HIGHER WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...STAYING SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY POST THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYING FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.
CIGS WILL STAY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH
FIELDS POINTING TO A DROP INTO MVFR - POTENTIALLY IFR - AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL FALL TO THE NORTH...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THAT
SAID...MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. TEMP
PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN AT THIS TIME. SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING
A LOSS OF ICE AS THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN WI OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN. FREEZING PCPN WOULD BE A
CONCERN IF GROUND TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN WI BY 18Z THU...EXPECT SOME
CLEARING FROM WEST-EAST OF THE CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP
BKN/OVC SKIES...BUT SOUNDINGS POINT TO MIXING OUT OF THE LOW CIGS.
GOING TO TREND THE FORECAST THIS WAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THE WINDS AT
KLSE HAVE YET TO RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND ARE STILL
AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN THIS AS THE 16.06Z NAM AND 16.09Z RAP WINDS ALOFT
APPEAR TO BE STRONG COMPARED TO THE LOCAL VWP WINDS...BUT WILL
INCLUDE IT AS OTHER RADAR VWP WINDS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGER
WINDS. THIS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS THE SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE AND WITH THE WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. ONCE THE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS AT BOTH SITES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WITH KRST AROUND 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
TOWARD EVENING AS THE MIXING DECREASES. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE CEILINGS SHOULD COME
DOWN TO MVFR AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST IN THE RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD GO THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEATS OF I-94. REST OF TEH DAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTOTHE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
A 6 TO 10K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER 18.03Z AS
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW. SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 30
KNOT RANGE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS AT BOTH TAF SITES FROM 17.14Z
THROUGH 18.02Z. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY. ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SLY HOWEVER BY MID
AFTN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND RAP. THE HRRR
ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WLY BY 20Z WHILE THE RAP KEEPS
THEM SSE THRU THE AFTN. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A SSW COMPONENT THRU
THE AFTN. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW AS IN PREVIOUS
TAF. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAMER
DIVIDE AND SRN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING HOWEVER WILL NOT HAVE THEM
AFFECTING THE AIRPORT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.AVIATION...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY WELL
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT FOR IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KAPF WHERE IFR
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING THERE, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS.
DID INTRODUCE VCTS BY 00Z AT KAPF AND AT 03Z FOR THE EAST COAST
AS THIS IS WHEN ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO MORE
IN. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/
NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)
THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
BNB
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 86 64 82 / 50 40 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 87 65 81 / 50 40 10 10
MIAMI 74 86 66 81 / 50 40 10 10
NAPLES 69 79 63 81 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
543 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
...RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AND
WILL IMPACT CSG TERMINAL FIRST FOLLOWED BY MCN AND THEN THE
ATL AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN
SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE
AND KEEP IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
WITHING HEAVIER SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 60 10
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 90 80 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 70 80 60 10
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 70 70 40 10
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 70 30 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 80 80 60 10
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 90 30 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 60 70 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 80 30 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 90 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
217 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF WINDS AND PRECIP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE MORNING PER GUIDANCE...BUT
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUMPED INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDED. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DRIVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. HINSBERGER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE W
COAST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD MTN TSTMS ON MON...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON TUE...SO ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE ANY SNOW. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF ID ON WED...
PRECIP WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BEYOND WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR AS THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DEPART FROM EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND
PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU. THE GFS STILL
HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
WILL SCALE BACK PRECIP ON THU AS A COMPROMISE. BOTH MODELS BRING A
NEW UPPER LOW TO THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MORN...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
FASTER. WILL START A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORN WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT MAY FALL BRIEFLY TO MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA BEHIND WEAKENING LOW PRES
WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AT KIWD...CLEARING LINE IS JUST
OFF TO THE W. WHILE CLOUDS MAY CLEAR OUT AT KIWD FOR A WHILE...A
GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD BRING A
RETURN OF BKN MVFR CIGS THAT ARE EVIDENT TO THE N. IF CLOUDS DO
CLEAR OUT AND DO NOT RETURN...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO FOG
ISSUES. AT KCMX...CIGS WILL RISE SLOWLY FROM IFR TO MVFR DURING THE
NIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT...THOUGH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY LEAD TO CIGS RISING ABOVE MVFR...OR CLOUDS
COULD SCATTER OUT. ALL TERMINALS WILL TREND TO VFR THIS MORNING AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
133 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE TO POPS AND
TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR
IMAGERY...AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE EVENING UPDATE. POPULATED LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DEEPENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A VORT LOBE
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN AROUND
06-10 UTC. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY. UPDATED
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DID
BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST HAVE
DISSIPATED WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRISK SE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING
THE RAP AND HRRR..INDICATING A 500MB SHEARED VORTICITY AXIS
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND PUSHING EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SWATH OF ENHANCED LIFT MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH) IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO
MONTANA WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH A SHOWALTER
INDEX NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THE MOST THURSDAY...WITH THE 12 UTC
GFS CLOSING OFF A POTENT LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE 12 UTC
ECMWF ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WHILE SIGNIFICANT QPF IS
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-30 MPH
AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST FRIDAY
DAYTIME SPREADING EAST FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
COMING OUT OF EITHER BAND OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR
FAR NORTHEAST CWA AROUND KMML/KTKC WHERE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE
DIPPED TO AROUND 5KFT...BUT THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE START OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS HAVE REMOVED OUR LOW POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
BEGINNING OF WELL-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND. EXPECT A STRONG MIXING
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY.
RAP HAS TENDED TO HANDLE THE STRONG MIXING WELL IN RECENT WARM DAYS
AND OUR GOING FORECAST WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AS WELL AS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
WITH THE STRONG MIXING...MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER FOR
PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS BUMPING SPEEDS UP A BIT
ACROSS MY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF OUR WEST PUSHING INTO
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO ABERDEEN...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BON HOMME TO KINGSBURY COUNTY. STRONG
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AREAS.
WINDS IN MY WEST WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RED FLAG...HOWEVER MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE HOLDING ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RESULT. DAY SHIFT
WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...AS WEAKER ADVECTION OR
GREATER MIX-DOWN OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT COULD PUSH THESE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER...WHICH IS THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM A WIND STANDPOINT.
FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/MID LEVEL WAVE...ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK LIFT FROM TAIL END
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY NAM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.
CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700MB...SO NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP REACH THE GROUND...AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY SPOTTY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 IN MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEPT ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT OUT
OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP
INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 40 OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
EXIST...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
A MORE LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE CLOUDY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THE SHORTWAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY...LEADING TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTO THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP BY MIDWEEK AS A
WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT
WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD BORDERED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE PRETTY STRONG. THEY WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND FREQUENTLY GUST FROM AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE WATCHING
HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHICH WOULD KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...IF THESE DEW POINTS
DO NOT RISE AS EXPECTED...THE LOWER BRULE AREA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HUMIDITY LEVELS REACH CRITICAL
VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER NEXT 12
HOURS. LOWER 5KFT CEILINGS WILL SPREAD IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
UPDATE...EVENING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY, STABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE, AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30`S EVEN NOW, EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WHERE SOME 40`S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM A GULF LOW SYSTEM. WE ARE NOW
GETTING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THAT SYSTEM HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE HRRR DOES SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING
WEST OF NASHVILLE AFTER 06Z, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SOME HIGH CEILINGS TO THE MID STATE THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. SHOULD ALSO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LOWER
CEILINGS TO ABOUT 4-5 KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CATEGORY CHANGES TO
THE TAF AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR TO PREVAIL.
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STRUGGLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT
THE MID STATE. LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS PLENTY DRY AND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH DUE TO IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE A THIN SWATH
COMING UP INTO WESTERN TN. THIS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
TWO IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPCOMING SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL EFFECT THE MID STATE OR NOT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLE TN. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO INCLUDE JUST 20 POPS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
OTW...SKIES TO CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN
STORE...INCLUDING WARMING TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY AS THE GULF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY. ON
SUNDAY...WARMER STILL...IN FACT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE MID STATE AT THAT TIME. THUS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
IN THE EXT FCST...FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO STACK WELL WITH A WEAK EASTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
MID STATE AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
SHOWALTERS LOOK SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND OMEGA FIELDS AND LLJ STRENGTH
LOOKS WEAK. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS. BUT AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...I DONT SEE IT.
TUES NT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN. TEMPS
HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
853 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH TONIGHT...ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH
SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE DESERTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL FALL TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...HOWEVER QUICKLY WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
THICK ENOUGH TO BE OPAQUE IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ON THE
WARM SIDE DUE TO THE CLOUDS...ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SITUATION TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL INVOLVE A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO WITH
COPIOUS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP TO THE WEST OF TUCSON AND OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT ALL OF THIS IS HIGH BASED AND LIKELY ONLY VIRGA.
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED OVERALL DRY AIR BELOW 400MB
AT TUCSON AND FLAGSTAFF...BUT EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ABOVE 600MB AT SAN
DIEGO. WARM AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND MOSTLY VIRGA ACROSS
THE DESERTS.
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER...COOLER MID LEVELS...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...AND THUS MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE RISE
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HI-RES HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW CELLS
BLOSSOMING BY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 PERCENT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE
121W LATITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SMALL PV ANOMALY CORE
TUCKED IN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE WAVE AROUND 25N. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A -16C TO -18C H5 COLD CORE REMAINS SITUATED IN
THE UPSTREAM NLY FLOW QUADRANT...WITH THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
WAVE STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MERIDIONAL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION. THIS CONFIGURATION MAY MEAN FURTHER DEEPENING AND FUTURE
NEGATIVE TILT EJECTION OF THE WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JET
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON WV IMAGERY PARTIALLY
TAPPING A NARROW PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND BECOMING
MANIFESTED IN A BAROCLINIC LEAF TYPE STRUCTURE (FURTHER EVIDENCE OF
THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM).
WITH MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND UVV IN THE 600-400MB LAYER ALREADY
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION TODAY. BOTH GOES AND AMSU TOTAL PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA
ORIGINATING WEST OF THE BAJA CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS EITHER ALOFT ABOVE THE H7 LAYER...OR VERY
SHALLOW BELOW THE H9 LAYER WITH NOTABLE DRY AIR TRAPPED BETWEEN. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS MOISTURE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUFFER LIMITING ANY INSTABILITY BASED AID TOWARDS DEEPER
VERTICAL MOTIONS. THUS...DESPITE THE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION...MUCH OF
THE HYDROMETEORS MAY BE LOST AS VIRGA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ANALYSIS
MAY BE ACROSS SERN CALIFORNIA WHERE THE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE HEATED SFC ALLOWING BETTER INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER HIGH TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THE
SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER WILL BE NATURALLY REDUCED BY ELEVATION.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE VIRGA AND VERTICAL
MOTIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD CORE ALOFT PULLS
TO THE EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY AS THE BULK OF THE ENTIRE WAVE LIFTS AND EJECTS OVER
ARIZONA. DURING THIS TRANSITION...RENEWED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
ASCENT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN
THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF UVV/SHOWERS ROTATING
NORTH INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. SFC HEATING
UNDER THE COLD CORE DURING THE DAY MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG AND LI/S AOB -2)...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONCEPTUALLY AND EVIDENTIALLY THROUGH MODEL
OUTPUT...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POINTS EAST OF
PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY REBUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS AOA 582DM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT AND TRENDS KEEP THE
VAST MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM CNTRL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE FORWARD SPEED AND ARRIVAL INTO THE WRN
CONUS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE DELAYED THE LOCAL ONSET OF
FROPA AND COOLING TO BEYOND TUESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST PROLONGED AND FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS.
WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE TEMPERED BACK INTO A 570-576DM RANGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...FEEL THE NET
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO KEEPING DAILY
READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
DAY 5-8 RANGE...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AFTER 17Z...ALONG WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECKS
GENERALLY AOB 12KFT AND LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 10KFT AT TIMES. DRIER
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO VIRGA/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFTER 23Z NEAR KPHX/KIWA/KSDL. OUTFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
BLOWING DUST ACROSS LOWER DESERTS AND LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO
4SM...BUT NOT PLACING ANY REDUCTIONS IN TAFS THIS TIME. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF OVER WESTERN TAF SITES KBLH/KIPL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN WIND AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PRESENTING AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1009 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TODAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES. THE
LATEST RAP WHICH DID WELL YDA CORROBORATES CURRENT THINKING.
MAX TEMPS NOT CHANGED MUCH, IF ANYTHING WE BACK ENDED THEM
TOWARD THE END OF AFTERNOON.
ELY MARINE LAYER OF HIGH RH SATURATING JUST BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND 1800-2400 FT. NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THURSDAY MORNING WHEN A
RECORD LOW WAS SET AT ALLENTOWN PA.
TODAY...FCST BASIS IS MOSTLY NAM 3RLY TEMPS AND MAX TEMP DURING THE
DAY AND THE HIGHER OF THE NCEP 3 HRLY MOS DEWPOINTS. 50 50 BLENDED
SFC SUSTAINED WINDS.
LOW CLOUDS RECEDE EWD AS THE BL WARMS BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD DURING MID AND LATE AFTN. E WIND GUST NEAR
15 MPH WITH THE WIND BECOMING S-SE LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS NEAR
5 PM THIS AFTN IN THE INTERIOR AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING
THE AFTN AND TEMPS MAY RISE 5 DEGREES BETWEEN 2P AND 5P VCNTY
PHILADELPHIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...FCST BASIS IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE COLDER OF THE LOW TEMPS NEAR 10Z/SAT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH CFP SCT-BKN SC NEAR 4000
FT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. LIGHT SE-S WIND DURING THE EVENING TURN W
OR NW LATE AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA. THE HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
OUR AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND BUILD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT TAKING PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY WHEN THICKNESSES AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AT THEIR LOWEST.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PULL TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA ONCE AGAIN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY, BUT SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS COULD EASILY GUST 25-30 MPH, IF NOT HIGHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...CIGS MOSTLY 1600-2400 FT. LIGHT EAST WIND.
AFTER 12Z...THE MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
MIDDAY WITH A VFR CIRRUS DECK ABOVE IT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHTER (GENERALLY AN EASTWARD
COMPONENT) THAN THURSDAY AND A SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WIND TENDS TO TURN SE-S.
TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS WITH CHC OF A SCT-BKN DECK NEAR 4000 FT TOWARD
10Z SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (CFP).
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS
SATURDAY.
TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS 7 FT AT 44009 AT 5 AM.
GFS WW4 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO LOW BY A FOOT OR 2 ON THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SO RAISED THAT GUIDANCE THRU THIS FRIDAY EVENING.
SCA CONTINUES OPEN ATLC WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS AND HAVE CONVERTED
THAT SCA HEADLINE TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HERE AT THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.
DE BAY WATERS NO HEADLINE THRU TONIGHT. E-NE WIND G 15 KT AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FT TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE
WIND TURN S TOWARD SUNSET THEN SHIFTS TO W OR NW TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED, THOUGH
WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SEAS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR CHANGES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MOBILE/FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THIS AND GENERALLY DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPING
...EVEN ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM MID/LATE THIS
EVENING (NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION) THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING (EAST COAST AREAS 2AM - DAYBREAK). DESPITE THE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
.STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
.DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.
EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 73 86 64 / 30 50 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 76 87 66 / 20 50 30 10
MIAMI 85 75 87 67 / 20 50 30 10
NAPLES 86 70 80 63 / 30 50 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
..RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 60 10
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 90 80 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 70 80 60 10
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 70 70 40 10
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 70 30 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 80 80 60 10
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 90 30 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 60 70 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 80 30 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 90 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
752 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SCT OUT SOME OVR THE CNTRL BUT EXPECT THESE
TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING
OVER THE EAST...BUT BASED ON HIGHER TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS THINK RISK OF
ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS PRETTY LOW AND HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF FORECAST.
HAVE ADDED FOG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THOUGH AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS /STILL IN THE IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE AT KCMX/ GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT TODAY...FIRST AT KIWD THIS MORNING AND THEN AT KCMX AND
KSAW BY MIDDAY OR MAYBE AS LATE AS THIS AFTN. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM AT
KSAW IF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH. SOME RAIN AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT KIWD AND KCMX. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS ATTM. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
625 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SCT OUT SOME OVR THE CNTRL BUT EXPECT THESE
TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING
OVER THE EAST...BUT BASED ON HIGHER TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS THINK RISK OF
ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS PRETTY LOW AND HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF FORECAST.
HAVE ADDED FOG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THOUGH AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. &&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA BEHIND WEAKENING LOW PRES
WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AT KIWD...CLEARING LINE IS JUST
OFF TO THE W. WHILE CLOUDS MAY CLEAR OUT AT KIWD FOR A WHILE...A
GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD BRING A
RETURN OF BKN MVFR CIGS THAT ARE EVIDENT TO THE N. IF CLOUDS DO
CLEAR OUT AND DO NOT RETURN...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO FOG
ISSUES. AT KCMX...CIGS WILL RISE SLOWLY FROM IFR TO MVFR DURING THE
NIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT...THOUGH
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY LEAD TO CIGS RISING ABOVE MVFR...OR CLOUDS
COULD SCATTER OUT. ALL TERMINALS WILL TREND TO VFR THIS MORNING AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
COMING OUT OF EITHER BAND OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR
FAR NORTHEAST CWA AROUND KMML/KTKC WHERE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE
DIPPED TO AROUND 5KFT...BUT THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE START OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS HAVE REMOVED OUR LOW POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
BEGINNING OF WELL-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND. EXPECT A STRONG MIXING
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY.
RAP HAS TENDED TO HANDLE THE STRONG MIXING WELL IN RECENT WARM DAYS
AND OUR GOING FORECAST WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AS WELL AS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
WITH THE STRONG MIXING...MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER FOR
PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS BUMPING SPEEDS UP A BIT
ACROSS MY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF OUR WEST PUSHING INTO
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO ABERDEEN...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BON HOMME TO KINGSBURY COUNTY. STRONG
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AREAS.
WINDS IN MY WEST WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RED FLAG...HOWEVER MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE HOLDING ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RESULT. DAY SHIFT
WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...AS WEAKER ADVECTION OR
GREATER MIX-DOWN OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT COULD PUSH THESE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER...WHICH IS THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM A WIND STANDPOINT.
FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/MID LEVEL WAVE...ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK LIFT FROM TAIL END
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY NAM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.
CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700MB...SO NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP REACH THE GROUND...AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY SPOTTY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 IN MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEPT ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT OUT
OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP
INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 40 OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
EXIST...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
A MORE LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE CLOUDY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THE SHORTWAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY...LEADING TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTO THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP BY MIDWEEK AS A
WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT
WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD BORDERED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST-SOUTH WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT EXPECTED WEST OF
HIGHWAY 81 AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS IN 30-37KT RANGE IN THESE AREAS
AFTER 18Z...SPREADING INTO I-29 CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH OF KFSD BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNSET...THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50-60KT ABOVE ROUGHLY 1500FT.
WHILE WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE VERY STRONG TONIGHT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LITTLE VARIANCE IN DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL INCREASE
IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KFT...SO OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
ASIDE FROM THE WINDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COOL FRONT APPROACHING KHON AREA AFTER 19/06Z WITH
SOME INDICATION OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT
LIMITED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE
TAF. GREATER CONCERN FROM ANY VIRGA/SPOTTY SHOWER WOULD BE MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE WATCHING
HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHICH WOULD KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...IF THESE DEW POINTS
DO NOT RISE AS EXPECTED...THE LOWER BRULE AREA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HUMIDITY LEVELS REACH CRITICAL
VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038-039-050-052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1036 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN OVER AL/GA THIS MORNING IS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE
MID-UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MS REGION. THE RUC
AND HRRR PRECIP DEPICTIONS BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO OUR SW NC
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST BASED
ON OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. WILL ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY...BUT STAY IN
THE CHANCE RAIN THROUGH 00Z...THEN RISE TO LIKELY IN SW NC AFTER
00Z. GIVEN THE OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK AND THE LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE
UPDATE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
BRINGING EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...INCREASED MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL END UP NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES...HOWEVER QUICKLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED INLAND INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SINCE THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW CENTER RIGHT OVER SAN
DIEGO. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE...MAINLY ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC LOW STRUCTURE WITH A
BAROCLINIC LEAF STRETCHING FROM SONORA MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA. BROAD ASCENT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF ARIZONA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A REGION OF UPPER DIFLUENCE NORTH OF
AN UPPER JET MAX NOSING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION AS WELL AS
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. LATE THIS MORNING...A SMALL
CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PIMA COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND A KINK SEEN IN THE 500MB HEIGHT
FIELD. FOR THE MOST PART...ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE DUE TO DRY AIR BELOW 700MB AS SHOWN BY
AREA THE INVERTED V STRUCTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS NEAR 40MPH ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
THAT MOVED ACROSS PHOENIX AND ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST.
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER...COOLER MID LEVELS AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES REPRESENT A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH MAY
GIVE RISE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE
HI-RES HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOWED CELLS BLOSSOMING BY
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...BUT UPDATED
MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE. STILL THINKING 10-15 POPS IN
THIS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS A GOOD BET...BUT
WITH THE FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH CATEGORY.
TONIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD CORE ALOFT PULLS TO THE
EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PV ANOMALY
AS THE BULK OF THE ENTIRE WAVE LIFTS AND EJECTS OVER ARIZONA. DURING
THIS TRANSITION...RENEWED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASCENT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF UVV/SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH
INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. SFC HEATING UNDER
THE COLD CORE DURING THE DAY MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG AND LI/S AOB -2)...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONCEPTUALLY AND EVIDENTIALLY THROUGH MODEL
OUTPUT...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POINTS EAST OF
PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY REBUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS AOA 582DM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT AND TRENDS KEEP THE
VAST MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM CNTRL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE FORWARD SPEED AND ARRIVAL INTO THE WRN
CONUS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE DELAYED THE LOCAL ONSET OF
FROPA AND COOLING TO BEYOND TUESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST PROLONGED AND FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS.
WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE TEMPERED BACK INTO A 570-576DM RANGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...FEEL THE NET
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO KEEPING DAILY
READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
DAY 5-8 RANGE...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25KT...OCCASIONALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY
AOB 12KFT AND LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 10KFT AT TIMES. DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO VIRGA/ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT POSSIBLE NEAR
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL. OUTFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE BLOWING DUST
ACROSS LOWER DESERTS AND LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4SM...BUT NOT
PLACING ANY REDUCTIONS IN TAFS THIS TIME. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF OVER WESTERN TAF SITES KBLH/KIPL OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PRESENTING AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT. CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/MO
AVIATION...MEYERS/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1145 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOCALIZED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH TONIGHT...ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH
SPRINKLES MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE DESERTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL FALL TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...HOWEVER QUICKLY WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM HAS PASSED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
THICK ENOUGH TO BE OPAQUE IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ON THE
WARM SIDE DUE TO THE CLOUDS...ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SITUATION TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL INVOLVE A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO WITH
COPIOUS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING UP TO THE WEST OF TUCSON AND OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT ALL OF THIS IS HIGH BASED AND LIKELY ONLY VIRGA.
LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED OVERALL DRY AIR BELOW 400MB
AT TUCSON AND FLAGSTAFF...BUT EXTENSIVE MOISTURE ABOVE 600MB AT SAN
DIEGO. WARM AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ANY SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND MOSTLY VIRGA ACROSS
THE DESERTS.
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE LOW CENTER...COOLER MID LEVELS...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...AND THUS MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE RISE
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. HI-RES HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SHOW CELLS
BLOSSOMING BY AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 700MB RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...BUT ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 PERCENT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE
121W LATITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SMALL PV ANOMALY CORE
TUCKED IN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE WAVE AROUND 25N. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A -16C TO -18C H5 COLD CORE REMAINS SITUATED IN
THE UPSTREAM NLY FLOW QUADRANT...WITH THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
WAVE STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MERIDIONAL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION. THIS CONFIGURATION MAY MEAN FURTHER DEEPENING AND FUTURE
NEGATIVE TILT EJECTION OF THE WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JET
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE WAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON WV IMAGERY PARTIALLY
TAPPING A NARROW PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND BECOMING
MANIFESTED IN A BAROCLINIC LEAF TYPE STRUCTURE (FURTHER EVIDENCE OF
THE POTENCY OF THIS SYSTEM).
WITH MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND UVV IN THE 600-400MB LAYER ALREADY
ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION TODAY. BOTH GOES AND AMSU TOTAL PWAT ANALYSIS SHOW A
CORRIDOR OF 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA
ORIGINATING WEST OF THE BAJA CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS EITHER ALOFT ABOVE THE H7 LAYER...OR VERY
SHALLOW BELOW THE H9 LAYER WITH NOTABLE DRY AIR TRAPPED BETWEEN. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS MOISTURE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUFFER LIMITING ANY INSTABILITY BASED AID TOWARDS DEEPER
VERTICAL MOTIONS. THUS...DESPITE THE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION...MUCH OF
THE HYDROMETEORS MAY BE LOST AS VIRGA. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ANALYSIS
MAY BE ACROSS SERN CALIFORNIA WHERE THE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE HEATED SFC ALLOWING BETTER INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER HIGH TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX WHERE THE
SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER WILL BE NATURALLY REDUCED BY ELEVATION.
REGARDLESS...WITH THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE VIRGA AND VERTICAL
MOTIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD CORE ALOFT PULLS
TO THE EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY AS THE BULK OF THE ENTIRE WAVE LIFTS AND EJECTS OVER
ARIZONA. DURING THIS TRANSITION...RENEWED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
ASCENT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN
THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF UVV/SHOWERS ROTATING
NORTH INTO CNTRL ARIZONA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. SFC HEATING
UNDER THE COLD CORE DURING THE DAY MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOA 250 J/KG AND LI/S AOB -2)...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. CONCEPTUALLY AND EVIDENTIALLY THROUGH MODEL
OUTPUT...POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR POINTS EAST OF
PHOENIX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY REBUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. H5 HEIGHTS AOA 582DM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT AND TRENDS KEEP THE
VAST MAJORITY OF JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM CNTRL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD. IF ANYTHING...THE FORWARD SPEED AND ARRIVAL INTO THE WRN
CONUS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE DELAYED THE LOCAL ONSET OF
FROPA AND COOLING TO BEYOND TUESDAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA MAY BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE MOST PROLONGED AND FREQUENT
HIGHER GUSTS.
WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE TEMPERED BACK INTO A 570-576DM RANGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...FEEL THE NET
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO KEEPING DAILY
READINGS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THE
DAY 5-8 RANGE...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASING CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25KT...OCCASIONALLY
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH BROKEN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY
AOB 12KFT AND LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 10KFT AT TIMES. DRIER NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO VIRGA/ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT POSSIBLE NEAR
KPHX/KIWA/KSDL. OUTFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE BLOWING DUST
ACROSS LOWER DESERTS AND LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4SM...BUT NOT
PLACING ANY REDUCTIONS IN TAFS THIS TIME. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF OVER WESTERN TAF SITES KBLH/KIPL OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN WIND AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ALSO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...PRESENTING AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...MEYERS/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
938 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT QUICKER ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE RESULTING IN THICKER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TODAY IN HEAT OF THE
DAY AS PER LATEST HRRR PRODUCT. THUNDERSTORMS...OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THAT MATTER...COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUCH A SCENARIO TOMORROW WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY NEARER TO THE UPPER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
PRODUCE OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL TODAY IN SE
AZ. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLD -TSRA
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION 18/22Z-19/02Z. SURFACE WIND BECOMING
SLY/SWLY 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
UP TO 35 KTS NEAR -SHRA/-TSRA. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ARE BETTER
ON SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE IT OUR FOR TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER LIGHT FOR VALLEY/DESERT LOCATIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY VIRGA OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURS.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SUNDAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY...THOUGH MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER SRN
AZ IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF SRN CA/NRN BAJA CST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WERE AROUND
0.40" WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 0.65" OVER SRN CA AND SRN SONORA
MEXICO WITH EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1" OFF BAJA SPUR. AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENING FROM TOP DOWN. SO
LOTS OF VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR VIRGA SHAFTS. HIGHS TODAY UNDER THE
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE 7-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ LATER
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.60" AND 0.85" WHICH IS ALMOST 2
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO AREAL POPS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE TROF AXIS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS....WITH SMALLER INCREASES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. I BASED THIS ON LATEST RUNS OF LOCAL WRF MODEL WHICH
HITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRETTY HARD WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL GUIDANCE.
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS TROF AXIS
PUSHES ON EAST. WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND ON
SUNDAY...COULD SEE HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING
MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS STRONG UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE
WEDNESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DROZD
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
353 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE INCREASED PAST SUNSET AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND HEADING NORTH TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND NAM MODELS HAVE DONE WELL IN
FORECASTING THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE NORTHERN
SAN JUAN AND ELK MOUNTAINS. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE STRIKE OF LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MODEL SKEW-TS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ARE SHOWING A CLASSIC
`V` PATTERN WHICH SUGGESTS STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT FROM VIRGA
AND SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP.
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW WITH
SNOW LEVEL STARTING NEAR 8500 FT OVERNIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST AND
TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AS IT PASSES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CO
MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT 0.50 TO 0.70 INCH
BY NOON SATURDAY...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. WITH SO MUCH POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD PACK A GOOD PUNCH OF WATER. SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO
NEAR 10000 FEET BY NOON SO THE WINTER SNOWPACK IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH...THEREFORE SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD RISE QUICKLY.
USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THROUGH THE BACKCOUNTRY OR TRAVELING NEAR
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG SMALL DRAINAGES. WE APPRECIATE ANY REPORTS
OF RISING WATER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND SATURDAY/S DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HELPING THIS CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK WAVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WHILE A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON A DOWNTURN
IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON
TUESDAY AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUE-TUE NIGHT. WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WARM...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO SHOW SOME SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY ACT TO
DAMPEN THE WINDS. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VIRGA OR LIGHT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
WHICH WOULD GREATLY BOOST WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WED
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN BORDER WED MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR OUR
AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH.
THEN WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE 12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR THU AND FRI.
AFTER WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BY 15 OR MORE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS THEN WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TONIGHT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH DUE TO VIRGA AND DOWNDRAFT
REMNANTS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z
AND 16Z. PARTIAL MTN OBSCURATIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE
POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS FLOW WILL MIX INTO THE
VALLEYS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BELOW 8000 FEET. ALSO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEREFORE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1038 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO COLORADO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS FOR THE
PLAINS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF DENVER AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR THE ACTIVITY. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY. ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BECOMING A MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA AND
WESTERLY AT KBJC. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY. THE NAM STILL INDICATING A SOUTH SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
WILL INDICATE MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGH
20Z...THEN TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TAF
TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...
SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
DENVER. POSSIBLE CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THICKER BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HI RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK FARTHER EAST LATE. SO JUST
EXPECTING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT WITH MEAGER QPF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
30S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY BECOMING ANTI-CYCLONIC. SO JUST
AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
MIXING DEPTHS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. STILL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL AFTER A COOL START.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY MAKING IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND KEEPS A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO MORE DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
MAY START TO INCREASE.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...AS A W-SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE US/CANADA BORDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS MOISTEN UP AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING RAIN SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS LINGER TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING IN COULD HELP TO ADD SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE MIX OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
LOW CHC POPS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR SQUEEZES MOISTURE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT...AND
VERY CLEAR AIR. ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND
70 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THEN FOLLOWS ABOUT A 36-HOUR PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AS A CENTRAL
CANADA TO OHIO VALLEY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD...
PASSING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK ONLY A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER LITTLE JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVES SOME...BUT NOT A
LOT OF...CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
RANGE. THE ADIRONDACKS...IN PARTICULAR...WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER
STILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE TREND BEGINS TO TURN AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU HAVE ERODED
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT KGFL FROM 06Z TO
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE A
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE....ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME. ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 TO 35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 70 AND 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO BE JUST OVER MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE...ALTHOUGH THE LEVELS WILL BE GRADUALLY RECEDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND
GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT
THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH
THE SHORT
TERM.
NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE
BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.
THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE.
COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT
WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE
AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK. MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE
MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE
RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH
HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW
IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN
MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING.
MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE
FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS
TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT
STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL
ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON`T MENTION
ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI`S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS
LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
SEA BREEZE FRONT NOT APPARENT ON OUR 88D. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT
TO FORM AS IT SHOULD MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE
IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT
OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING.
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY
CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE
CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER
CEILINGS.
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING.
EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX,
OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING
THE FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20
MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL
AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL/HAS COME ASHORE THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ROUGHLY BETWEEN HOMOSASSA SPRINGS AND SARASOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WILL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BRUSH NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...RUC AND HRRR 3KM...FORECAST SOUNDING
HODOGRAPHS AND WIND PROFILES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUGGEST STRONG
GUSTS VS. SIGNIFICANT ROTATION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGER SCALE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 19/00Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBY.
18/19Z-19/00Z...TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH G40KT MAINLY NORTH OF
KDAB-KISM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS VC KLEE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009/20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND 010/120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6 NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 4
TO 5 FOOT SEAS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY BECOMING
WEST NORTH TO SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MON-TUE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 71 58 76 / 60 30 20 10
MCO 68 77 57 80 / 60 30 20 10
MLB 70 80 59 79 / 60 30 20 10
VRB 71 81 58 77 / 60 30 10 10
LEE 66 76 56 79 / 60 30 20 10
SFB 68 77 56 78 / 60 30 20 10
ORL 68 76 58 78 / 60 30 20 10
FPR 72 80 59 78 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AORUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR ALREADY MOVED IN SOUTH...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH WITH EVERYONE MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
IFR AND SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY WIDESPREAD AS WELL. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY MORNING AS SHRA MOVES OUT BUT STAYING MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. E TO ENE WINDS GENERALLY 12-18KT
WITH GUSTS 10KT ABOVE THAT...AND AS IS TYPICAL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF EVENTS.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 80 20
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 100 100 60 20
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 80 80 60 20
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 90 100 50 20
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 100 40 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 100 100 70 20
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 100 50 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 60 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 100 50 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 100 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/
.RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.
AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEESE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.
01
HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 90 1942 54 1902 64 1969 32 1936
1927
KATL 87 2002 50 1983 69 1927 33 1997
1937
1896
KCSG 91 2002 62 1983 69 2006 37 1962
1956
KMCN 90 1967 55 1921 66 1922 33 2001
1955
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 91 1917 51 1984 64 1927 30 1983
KATL 88 1941 50 1983 66 1927 30 1983
KCSG 91 2002 59 1983 68 1995 33 1983
1953
KMCN 91 2002 59 1910 66 1927 31 1983
1976
1968
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 46 62 51 / 100 100 60 10
ATLANTA 56 47 62 53 / 100 100 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 57 45 63 50 / 70 70 60 10
CARTERSVILLE 59 47 65 53 / 80 80 40 10
COLUMBUS 57 49 65 56 / 100 100 30 10
GAINESVILLE 54 47 61 51 / 100 100 60 10
MACON 55 50 64 53 / 100 100 30 20
ROME 61 47 67 54 / 70 70 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 56 47 63 52 / 100 100 30 10
VIDALIA 61 55 67 58 / 100 100 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1025 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS QUICKER PACE OF CLEARING. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL AND HOPEFULLY
THE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE ANY DUST. NO WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH FOR SIGNS OF DUST PICKING
UP. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF WINDS AND PRECIP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE MORNING PER GUIDANCE...BUT
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUMPED INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDED. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DRIVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. HINSBERGER
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE W
COAST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD MTN TSTMS ON MON...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON TUE...SO ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE ANY SNOW. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF ID ON WED...
PRECIP WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BEYOND WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR AS THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DEPART FROM EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND
PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU. THE GFS STILL
HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
WILL SCALE BACK PRECIP ON THU AS A COMPROMISE. BOTH MODELS BRING A
NEW UPPER LOW TO THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MORN...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
FASTER. WILL START A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HEDGES
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORN WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT MAY FALL BRIEFLY TO MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO SCT OUT SOME OVR THE CNTRL BUT EXPECT THESE
TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING
OVER THE EAST...BUT BASED ON HIGHER TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS THINK RISK OF
ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG IS PRETTY LOW AND HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF FORECAST.
HAVE ADDED FOG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA THOUGH AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
REMNANTS OF SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW TO THE REGION STILL CLOSE
BY JUST EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE AT 1022MB AT 07Z. BROAD SFC RIDGE
POISED TO SLIDE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE BUT ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER FAR WEST...THOUGH MID CLOUDS
ARE FILLING RIGHT IN WHERE LOW CLOUDS LEFT OFF. CLEARING OF LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOWER AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WITH NW WINDS
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT KEEPING MENTION OF
FZDZ/DZ THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. MIXING/DRYING
BLO H95 WILL END THIS POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOISTURE IS
PRETTY SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP DZ/FZDZ AS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN
THE EXTENT OF DRYNESS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS...WILL HEAD AWAY FM THE RUC AND KEEP
IDEA THAT SKIES WILL MAINLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN. HIGHER SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP OUT MATTERS. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER PERHAPS MID 40S NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT STAYING IN THE MID
TO UPR 30S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS WINDS REMAIN
ONSHORE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT MID CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF CWA. CLOUDS ARE
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AROUND H6 SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CWA. LINGERING DRY AIR BLO H8 ON NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS TIL RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING LESSER ON THE QPF INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. FORCING DECENT THOUGH JUST ABOVE THE DRY LAYER WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280K-290K SFCS /H875-H7/ AND MAINLY H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIMED TOWARD MAINLY
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DELAYED HIGHER POPS...BUT STILL KEPT LOW
CHANCES GIVEN THE FORCING. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN PROVIDED SATURATION OCCURS AS WB
TEMPS AT H925-H85 RISE ABOVE 0C TOWARD KIWD LATE TONIGHT. KEPT
MAINLY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS PTYPE BUT INCLUDED CHANCE OF FZRA AS
WELL. DRIER AIR IN LOW-LEVELS SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH PRECIP TO
OCCUR THOUGH...RESTRICTING POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
FINALLY...FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE
TEENS INLAND BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD
TO FOG AS DWPNTS MOST OF TODAY WILL STAY IN THE 20S. COORD WITH WFO
GAYLORD AND ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN CWA WHERE COOLEST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SINCE CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL BE ON TIMING/POPS/PCPN TOTALS
AND HYDRO IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING
INTO THE PAC NW AND WHICH IS FCST TO SHIFT E ACRS SRN CANADA
SAT/SUN. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WX EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E.
SAT...SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO ARE
FCST TO BE JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z SAT AND THEN OVER NW ONTARIO
BY 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NW CWA WL BE DRY AT 12Z ON
WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...
VIGOROUS WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 285-295K SFCS/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/H85-7 WARM FGEN/IMPRESSIVE H3-2 DVGC ON THE SE
FLANK OF THE SHRTWV TRACK ARE FCST TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW HALF OF
UPR MI AS H85 SSW WINDS INCRS UP TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE
BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MSTR CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW
HALF...GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LIGHTER PCPN...IF ANY AT ALL...FALLING
OVER THE FAR SE FARTHER FM THE SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACK AND WHERE DEEPER
DRY AIR WL BE MORE RESILIENT. SO MAINTENED LOWER POPS IN THAT AREA.
AFTER A CHILLY NGT...WITH H85 TEMPS AOB 0C AT 12Z SAT AS WELL AS
SOME LINGERING NEAR SFC DRY AIR THAT MAY MAINTAIN WBLB TEMPS JUST
BLO 32 NEAR THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THERE MAY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ON SAT MRNG. BUT ANY MIXED PCPN IN THE MRNG
WL QUICKLY TURN TO RA AS THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW ADVECTS MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS
FOR QPF...THE WETTER MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH OF WATER
EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING OVER THE NW THRU 00Z SUN. EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DVLP OVER THE W LATER IN THE DAY AS HIER SFC DEWPTS SURGE TO THE N
OVER THE MELTING SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
LLVL MSTR SURGE AND INDICATES SFC DEWPTS WL RISE TO 45 AT IWD.
SAT NGT...AS THE SHRTWV/SFC LO CONTINUE E THRU NW ONTARIO ON THE NRN
FLANK OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS FCST
TO DRIFT INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNGT. WHILE SOME RA IS FCST TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR BAND AHEAD OF THIS FNT UNDER THE
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE N...THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF IN THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV THAT
IS FCST TO PUSH AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT WL DIMINISH THE PCPN AT LEAST
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID LVL DRYING IS FCST TO BE
MOST EMPHATIC. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID
LVL DRYING. WL RETAIN THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON IS FCST TO LIE AT 12Z SUN. GOING FCST
APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS. THERE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH ALL BUT THE FAR W
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUSPECT AREAS OF FOG WL DVLP WITH
MELTING SN/HIER SFC DEWPTS UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING.
SUN...AS THE MID LVL DRYING IMPACTS MOST OF THE CWA ON SUN...EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY WX. BUT WL RETAIN SOME POPS OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE ECWMF/CNDN MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LVL DRYING
AND HOLD THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR IN LONGER. MRNG
LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE NW SHOULD BURN OFF TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCRSG SUN ANGLE.
SUN NGT/MON...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MAY MOVE THRU THE SCENTRAL GRT LKS AND INVIGORATE SHRA ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MSTR RIBBON STRETCHED W-E OVER THE CENTRAL LKS...INCLUDING
AT LEAST THE FAR SCENTRAL CWA. WL RETAIN SOME CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD RUN AOA NORMAL WITH H85 TEMPS 5 TO 7C. MORE FOG IS
LIKELY SUN NGT OVER THE MELTING SN PACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN
TIER IF THE MID LVLS DRY OUT AND A WEAK SFC HI WITH LGT WINDS BLDS
OVHD.
EXTENDED...AS AN UPR RDG BLDS OVER THE ROCKIES...AN AMPLIFYING NW
FLOW ALF WL PUSH COOLER CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS FOR TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME SHRASN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA ON MON NGT
INTO EARLY TUE...ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. TUE INTO WED SHOULD FEATURE
DRY AND COOLER WX WITH CNDN HI PRES DOMINATING. NEXT CHC FOR PCPN WL
THEN ARRIVE LATER WED AND THU AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVES
E FM THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VARIOUS OPS MODELS SHOW A WIDE
RANGE OF PSBL WX. THE COLDER 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A PTYPE OF
MAINLY SN AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES E AT THE SAME TIME ARCTIC HI PRES
BLDS OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
BUT THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER S WIND THAT
WOULD LIMIT ANY MIXED PCPN TO NEAR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING POSSIBLE FOG AT SAW TONIGHT. IF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE
QUICK ENOUGH TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AT SAW. SOME RAIN
AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT KIWD AND KCMX...BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH BRINGING THIS IN SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
WINDS GENERALLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS ON FLANK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. SINCE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND INTO MON /AS HI AS THE 50S AWAY FROM LOCAL
LAKE COOLING ON SUN AND MON/...A GOOD DEAL OF MELTING SHOULD OCCUR.
EXCEPT FOR SAT NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST NEAR
FREEZING...LIMITING CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR
WILL RETURN ON MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST WED...MODERATING THE MELT
DOWN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE RECENT SNOW STORM AND ON SAT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON
THE RIVERS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ONCE THE WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ON SAT THRU MON. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS... AND
STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE
JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING
RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1242 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR ALL
ZONES. MONDAY WILL BE WARM...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BARRELS
ACROSS NEVADA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...CLEANED UP THE AFTERNOON GRIDS AND FORECAST TO MATCH THE
LATEST TRENDS. DRIER AIR HAS INVADED NW NEVADA, TOOK OUT ALL POPS
HERE AND REDUCED SKY COVER SUBSTANTIALLY. HRRR SOLUTIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING SW OF EUREKA CURRENTLY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
NW NYE TO SE EUREKA AND NW WHITE PINE COUNTIES. EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHTNING TO BEGIN SOON IN THESE ZONES.
TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 330 AM /
SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO CONVECTION AS LIFTED INDICES RANGE FROM
ZERO TO MINUS 2 OVER CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLAND AREAS. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEVADA
UP TO AND INCLUDING THE RUBY MOUNTAIN RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON AS WARM MOIST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV WITH PLEASANT SPRING TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER EASTERN NV FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODELS DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GFS/GEM HOLDING ONTO SOME TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHEAST NV WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INHERITED
FORECAST FOLLOWED THE WETTER GFS/GEM AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AS
ECMWF IS THE ODD FELLOW OUT FOR NOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
SYNC THURSDAY WITH THE GFS/GEM SHOWING RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO NRN CA SPREADING SOME
MOISTURE OVER NRN NV. INHERITED FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE
WETTER ECMWF AND WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE
AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH.
AVIATION...STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY IMPACTING THE
KEKO/KELY TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DRYING
AND WARMING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE
SPRING WINDS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST CIRA BLENDED PWAT LOOP INDICATES A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE
DESERT SW UNDER STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TODAY. PCT OF NORMAL VALUES
IN THIS MOIST PLUME HAVE INCREASED TO BTWN 100-150 PCT OF NORMAL
WITH POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 200 PCT. SATELLITE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING SLOWLY EAST WHILE THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 12Z-18Z GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOIST
INSTABILITY OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 16Z HRRR WAS VERY
BULLISH ON DEVELOPING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/STORMS OVER THE SW MTS
THIS EVENING THEN SLIDING NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD INTO SAN JUAN
COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER BULLSEYE FROM LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES INTO
THE SE PLAINS. TRENDED POPS UP FOR THESE AREAS BUT VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL BATTLE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
TOP DOWN EFFECTS TAKE OVER.
MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SO FAR THIS
SPRING SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIFTED INDICES MAY
AVERAGE -2 TO -3C WTIH CAPE OF 500-800 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK
SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE. ALSO RAISED POP VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD IN LINE WITH HPC
PROBABILISTIC QPF GUIDANCE. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER FORCING. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONGER
FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE SE PLAINS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MAX TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING AND DRY AIR
SCOURING OUT ANY REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEFINITELY WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS FROM DRY STORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS SINCE THE WINDS LOOK UGLY FOR AN EXTENDED DURATION THEREAFTER.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING SLOW TO APPROACH STATE BUT LOOK FOR IT LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WETTING STORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY ALTHOUGH DRIER. CONFIDENCE
HIGH FOR A MULTI DAY WIND EVENT STARTING TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TROUGH FOR TUESDAY WHICH MEANS
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE A DOOZY WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RH COMBINED WITH REALLY STRONG
WIND AREAWIDE. POST COLD FRONTAL CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY
WITH RESIDUAL STRONG WIND. STRONG WIND/LOW RH ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF THURSDAY.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE
HIGHER CIRRUS HAS KEPT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING BUT
THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MAINLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY DRIER WILL IMPACT THE WEST. CANT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES ADDITIONAL JUICE
WILL FUEL WETTER SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT THE BEST
RESULTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 STAND TO BENEFIT THE MOST IN TERMS OF SOME WETTING
MOISTURE OR GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL BE
FAIRLY JUICY MOST OF THE DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH ON SATURDAY. STORM MOTION DOEST APPEAR TO BE
ALL THAT FAST ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST/EAST QUICKER THAN THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY.
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME DRYING FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE INTO SUNDAY. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND
PERHAPS SOME COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL WAVE INDUCED LIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY
WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST...SPECIFICALLY NORTHEAST.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR SOME RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. DRIER AIR WOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS. PERHAPS SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PROGRESSION BUT A
SIMILAR IDEA STANDS. INCREASES IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY.
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRADITIONAL OR
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE
QUITE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE HERKY JERKY OR WIDE GUST SPREAD LIKE
WINDS ON TUESDAY. POST COLD FRONTAL STRONG WINDS WOULD REMAIN ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAINES AND NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MIGHT BE A LIMITER IN TERMS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. IN THE COMING DAYS...CAN SEE A WATCH BEING
ISSUED FOR THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AN AREAWIDE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS MULTI DAY EVENT ALTHOUGH
HAINES/TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL MOST LIKELY FLUCTUATE SOME DUE TO
SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER CAVEAT IN TERMS OF
TUESDAY AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
PRECEDING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH 19Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN QUICKLY AND ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. DIDNT USE PREVAILING OR TEMPO AT THIS TIME BUT
LOOK FOR IT IN LATER SHIFTS. FMN/GUP/ROW WOULD BE IMPACTED MOST BY
LOWERING CIGS AND PRECIP. SAF/AEG/ABQ COULD GET STRONG WIND
IMPACTS WITH THE DVLPING SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MESSY WEATHER DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 48 68 41 72 / 60 30 20 10
DULCE........................... 42 63 32 67 / 60 40 30 20
CUBA............................ 42 64 36 67 / 50 40 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 41 65 35 70 / 30 40 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 38 58 32 64 / 30 50 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 41 62 35 68 / 40 40 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 41 58 38 66 / 30 50 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 43 69 36 75 / 20 50 40 10
CHAMA........................... 37 58 33 63 / 60 50 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 62 44 65 / 30 40 30 20
PECOS........................... 44 61 39 64 / 20 40 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 65 34 66 / 20 40 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 34 52 31 54 / 30 50 40 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 57 33 59 / 20 50 40 30
TAOS............................ 41 64 34 67 / 20 40 30 20
MORA............................ 43 63 38 62 / 20 40 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 46 69 38 72 / 30 30 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 45 62 40 63 / 40 40 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 67 39 70 / 30 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 68 47 71 / 40 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 70 48 72 / 30 40 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 71 44 74 / 30 40 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 72 47 75 / 30 40 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 73 44 76 / 20 40 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 71 47 74 / 40 40 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 52 71 47 75 / 20 60 40 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 66 44 69 / 40 50 40 20
TIJERAS......................... 48 67 45 68 / 40 40 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 65 38 68 / 30 50 40 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 63 41 65 / 30 40 30 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 66 44 68 / 20 50 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 69 45 71 / 20 50 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 46 63 41 65 / 30 60 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 46 67 42 64 / 10 30 30 40
RATON........................... 46 71 40 69 / 10 30 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 49 71 43 70 / 10 30 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 68 42 67 / 10 40 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 52 75 50 70 / 5 20 30 30
ROY............................. 50 71 47 69 / 5 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 54 76 51 75 / 5 30 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 73 49 74 / 10 30 30 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 80 52 76 / 0 40 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 52 74 48 76 / 5 40 40 20
PORTALES........................ 53 75 49 77 / 5 40 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 74 50 77 / 10 40 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 56 76 50 81 / 30 50 40 10
PICACHO......................... 52 70 47 74 / 30 60 50 10
ELK............................. 49 63 45 69 / 40 70 50 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH 19Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN QUICKLY AND ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. DIDNT USE PREVAILING OR TEMPO AT THIS TIME BUT
LOOK FOR IT IN LATER SHIFTS. FMN/GUP/ROW WOULD BE IMPACTED MOST BY
LOWERING CIGS AND PRECIP. SAF/AEG/ABQ COULD GET STRONG WIND
IMPACTS WITH THE DVLPING SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A MESSY WEATHER DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1118 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SW BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS INDICATE COVERAGE OF
-SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTH. LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MTS. MODELS SHOW STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NUDGED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER UP CONSIDERABLY.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...607 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN SE AND
EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SURGING N/NE THROUGH THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND FILTERING INTO CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST. PATCHY FOG AND SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
BEING REPORTED IN CLOVIS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...600 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ERODING BY 15Z TO 18Z... WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE PECOS VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING KROW...KCVN
AND KTCC. HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM WEST TO CENTRAL LOCALES IN
THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AREAWIDE...
RELAXING SOME OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
&&
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES EASTWARD
TODAY...CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTING EAST OUT OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...RESULTING IN
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG WINDS TO ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF THE
LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH THE DEWPOINT AT TUSCON INCREASING FROM 17F TO 30F
OVER A COUPLE OF HOURS TIME. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE TX/NM BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS ALREADY
INTO THE LOW 40S OVER FAR SERN NEW MEXICO.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
A BIT...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE GILA THIS MORNING AND DECREASING
CHANCES AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT DRY THUNDERSTORM WORDING
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WITH
EITHER AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN CHECK ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 65 KT JET MAX MOVES UP
INTO WRN NM AND LEFT FRONT QUAD LIFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM GENERATE.
TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL A BIT AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...LIKELY THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM
MID-DAY SUNDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
FAR NE NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BRING DRIER AIR INTO
WESTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ENDING SHOWER CHANCES THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATING
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THIS AIRMASS AND ENOUGH ELY
UPSLOPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS BUT SUSPECT THE
CONVECTION IS OVERDONE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN JEMEZ AND TUSAS
MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LIKELY TO WIN OUT.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
STRONG WINDS THE LIKELY RESULT EACH AFTERNOON. GFS...HOWEVER NOT
ALL THAT DRY WITH THE FLOW TUESDAY...ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CRATER
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS COMPLETELY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE
LIKELY RESULT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTER PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO BE LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN...CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH FAIR RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VALUES NORTH
AND EAST.
MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ON TAP TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVELS TO ALSO SEE
INCREASES IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MID LEVELS A LITTLE
SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP. UPPER LOW TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...INITIALLY
FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT INSTABILITY WEST BUT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST... SUPPORTING A THREAT OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. RH RECOVERIES TO IMPROVE ACROSS
THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO LOCALLY EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH SUCH THAT THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED WETTING
RAIN EXPECTED MOST ZONES SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING BUT DECREASED
CHANCES SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH THE FOCUS
ON THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER AND DRIER BUT
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
STILL FOCUSING ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH WIND AND THE DRY SLOT AS THE BIG STORY FOR
NEW MEXICO. HAINES INCREASES TO 5 TO 6 ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY 6 ON
WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WESTERN ZONES...CENTRAL VALLEY AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS NEXT POTENTIAL FIRE GROWTH PATTERN.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1118 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SW BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS INDICATE COVERAGE OF
-SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTH. LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MTS. MODELS SHOW STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NUDGED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER UP CONSIDERABLY.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...607 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN SE AND
EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SURGING N/NE THROUGH THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND FILTERING INTO CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST. PATCHY FOG AND SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
BEING REPORTED IN CLOVIS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...600 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ERODING BY 15Z TO 18Z... WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE PECOS VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING KROW...KCVN
AND KTCC. HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM WEST TO CENTRAL LOCALES IN
THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AREAWIDE...
RELAXING SOME OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
&&
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES EASTWARD
TODAY...CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTING EAST OUT OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...RESULTING IN
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG WINDS TO ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF THE
LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH THE DEWPOINT AT TUSCON INCREASING FROM 17F TO 30F
OVER A COUPLE OF HOURS TIME. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE TX/NM BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS ALREADY
INTO THE LOW 40S OVER FAR SERN NEW MEXICO.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
A BIT...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE GILA THIS MORNING AND DECREASING
CHANCES AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT DRY THUNDERSTORM WORDING
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WITH
EITHER AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN CHECK ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 65 KT JET MAX MOVES UP
INTO WRN NM AND LEFT FRONT QUAD LIFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM GENERATE.
TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL A BIT AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...LIKELY THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM
MID-DAY SUNDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
FAR NE NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BRING DRIER AIR INTO
WESTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ENDING SHOWER CHANCES THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATING
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THIS AIRMASS AND ENOUGH ELY
UPSLOPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS BUT SUSPECT THE
CONVECTION IS OVERDONE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN JEMEZ AND TUSAS
MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LIKELY TO WIN OUT.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
STRONG WINDS THE LIKELY RESULT EACH AFTERNOON. GFS...HOWEVER NOT
ALL THAT DRY WITH THE FLOW TUESDAY...ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CRATER
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS COMPLETELY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE
LIKELY RESULT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTER PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO BE LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN...CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH FAIR RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VALUES NORTH
AND EAST.
MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ON TAP TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVELS TO ALSO SEE
INCREASES IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MID LEVELS A LITTLE
SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP. UPPER LOW TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...INITIALLY
FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT INSTABILITY WEST BUT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST... SUPPORTING A THREAT OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. RH RECOVERIES TO IMPROVE ACROSS
THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO LOCALLY EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH SUCH THAT THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED WETTING
RAIN EXPECTED MOST ZONES SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING BUT DECREASED
CHANCES SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH THE FOCUS
ON THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER AND DRIER BUT
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
STILL FOCUSING ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH WIND AND THE DRY SLOT AS THE BIG STORY FOR
NEW MEXICO. HAINES INCREASES TO 5 TO 6 ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY 6 ON
WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WESTERN ZONES...CENTRAL VALLEY AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS NEXT POTENTIAL FIRE GROWTH PATTERN.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM OVER THE FAR WEST
PORTION OF THE ADVISORY...INCLUDING BISMARCK AND MINOT.
HOWEVER...LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY
925-850MB WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THE MIXING LAYER REMAINING ELEVATED INTO THE MID TO
LATE EVENING HOURS. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOES THROUGH 10 PM BUT
WILL EXTEND THIS NORTH THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND ADD
ANOTHER LAYER COUNTIES TO THE WEST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WILL SEND PRODUCTS OUT BY 6 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOLID
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS BEING MET OVER THE ADVISED AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND HEADLINE FOR THIS UPDATE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREFORE...REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FROM THE APPROPRIATE
ZONES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE GFS/GEM/NAM KEEP THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY (PROXIMATE
TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY) WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND
EXTEND THEM SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE A MILD EASTER FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EASTER SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC COAST
TUESDAY...PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE CONVECTION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. FOR THE 12 UTC RUN TODAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AND PROPAGATING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPES...AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE AND
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LIGHT
SHOWERS AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT KISN-KMOT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...BRIEF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED. BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE I-94 TERMINAL AERODROMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT.
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THE
LOWEST MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE
GFDI HAS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A LOW-END
"VERY HIGH" FIRE DANGER SATURDAY. FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003-011-021-035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
FAST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY RAPID
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NW THIS
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MT BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND
TO NEAR LAKE WG BY 12Z SAT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS TROF
WAS LOCATED OVER WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN IR AND WV
SATELLITE PICS WITH COLDER AND MORE CONTINUOUS HIGH CLOUDS TO ITS
WEST AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR CWA.
AS TROF APPROACHES...BEST SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOWN BY 700MB Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPLITS INTO TWO AREAS. THE STRONGER MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF ACROSS ND...WHILE A SECOND AREA
DVLPS OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND ELONGATES OVER THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER CO...NORTHERN NE...AND EASTERN SD BY 12Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS ALOFT IS MODEST
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NE WY AND WESTERN SD...ONGOING THIS AFTN.
ANALYSES OF SFC GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY CHANGES REVEAL INCREASING
VALUES OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTN. THESE CHANGES SHOULD SUPPORT
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. 18Z
NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL GIVE SUPPORT TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DETAILS OF STORM LOCATION/INTENSITY HAVE BEEN
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN OF THE HRRR.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500 TO 750 J/KG OF CAPE OVER WRN SD LATE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVG. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT...BUT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH LCLS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW...BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WHOLE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTN AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NORTH DAKOTA AND SWINGS
A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW RH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE TIME WILL
LEAVE THE SUN AFTN FORECAST DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CREATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE MAIN UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF CWA...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY LIQUID EVENT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SLUSHY
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BEHIND SYSTEM IN
QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER MID CLOUDS IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
COMING OUT OF EITHER BAND OF CLOUDS. POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR
FAR NORTHEAST CWA AROUND KMML/KTKC WHERE LOWEST CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE
DIPPED TO AROUND 5KFT...BUT THIS HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE START OF THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS HAVE REMOVED OUR LOW POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
BEGINNING OF WELL-ADVERTISED WARMING TREND. EXPECT A STRONG MIXING
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY.
RAP HAS TENDED TO HANDLE THE STRONG MIXING WELL IN RECENT WARM DAYS
AND OUR GOING FORECAST WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AS WELL AS
BIAS-CORRECTED GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.
WITH THE STRONG MIXING...MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER FOR
PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS BUMPING SPEEDS UP A BIT
ACROSS MY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF OUR WEST PUSHING INTO
LOWER END OF WIND ADVISORY RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO ABERDEEN...OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BON HOMME TO KINGSBURY COUNTY. STRONG
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH EXCEPTION IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AREAS.
WINDS IN MY WEST WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RED FLAG...HOWEVER MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE HOLDING ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RESULT. DAY SHIFT
WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...AS WEAKER ADVECTION OR
GREATER MIX-DOWN OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT COULD PUSH THESE HUMIDITY
LEVELS CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER...WHICH IS THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FROM A WIND STANDPOINT.
FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/MID LEVEL WAVE...ENHANCED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW POPS JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK LIFT FROM TAIL END
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY NAM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z.
CONTINUE TO SEE FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BELOW 700MB...SO NOT CONVINCED
WE WILL SEE MUCH PRECIP REACH THE GROUND...AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY SPOTTY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 IN MOST
AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
KEPT ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WITH ONLY
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE...AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TOP OUT NEAR 70. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY MAKES IT OUT
OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS UP
INTO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 40 OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS
EXIST...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THERE IS
A MORE LIKELY PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE CLOUDY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
THE SHORTWAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PULL OFF TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY...LEADING TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INTO THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP BY MIDWEEK AS A
WESTERN U.S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS NOT IN THE GREATEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT
WITHIN THE TIME PERIOD BORDERED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST TO ABOUT 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 29 WITH THE WIND REMAINING GUSTY TO AROUND 30 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BUT THE CHANCES AT ANY ONE POINT ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...BECOMING
RATHER GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE WATCHING
HUMIDITY LEVELS CLOSELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WHICH WOULD KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. HOWEVER...IF THESE DEW POINTS
DO NOT RISE AS EXPECTED...THE LOWER BRULE AREA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HUMIDITY LEVELS REACH CRITICAL
VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-039-050-
052>054-057>060-063>065-068.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...JH