Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/16/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1034 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WILL
CREATE ENHANCED EAST-WEST FLOW ACROSS KERN COUNTY LEADING TO GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES TOWARD
SUNRISE. FINE-TUNED THE FORECAST IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS LEANING ON THE HRRR AND NAM DATA WHICH BETTER SUPPORTED THIS
SCENARIO. ATTM WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH
WE/LL MONITOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT AND LAST ABOUT 3-5 HOURS. WARM-UP STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW WITH REGIONAL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A
DESCENDING AND DESICCATING AIRMASS COMING IN AND MODEL CONSENSUS
REMAINS STEADY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 125 PM PDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO TURN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPING THROUGH THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THIS WOULD ERODE THE MARINE AIR OVER THE SOUTH
END OF THE VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING...EVEN IF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY REMAINS COOL.
ABOVE THE MARINE AIR POOL...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION.
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE THAT DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT AND BROUGHT THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN DESERT WAS MOVING INTO UTAH AND ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH THE 5760-METER HEIGHT LINE AS FAR NORTH AS SACRAMENTO AND RENO.
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS NO LONGER FORECAST THE WAVE TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE. RATHER...THE SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE
RIDGE AND DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY...PUSHING THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE. THE SHORT-WAVE ALSO WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE STATE
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SPLIT FLOW WITH
THE NORTHERN BRANCH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTH BRANCH MAINLY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE NORTH BRANCH AND PUSHING
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE BUT BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO
WHICH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY.
BEYOND FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE THE DAY 6-7 FORECAST
UNCHANGED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-13 97:1898 54:1998 59:1936 34:1911
KFAT 04-14 98:1985 52:1956 60:1985 36:1972
KFAT 04-15 96:1947 57:1988 62:1925 35:1970
KBFL 04-13 94:2008 57:2012 59:1930 32:1893
KBFL 04-14 99:1985 56:2003 62:1962 33:1893
KBFL 04-15 97:1994 57:2007 61:1947 36:1921
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. STORM SYSTEM HAS PUSHED
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. STILL SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY AS NOTED
BY WEB CAMS. AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADS INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING...THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN
END. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST RAP INDICATING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 100 J/KG FAR ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES BY 21Z. THERE IS ALSO SOME CIN AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUD FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. COOLER AIRMASS TO BE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST PLAINS STILL
LOOKING GOOD. MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS ACROSS ZONE 36 AND 41
AS THIS AREA RECEIVED DECENT SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COLD AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LIGHT SNOW COULD
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DRIER MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL START TO MOVE OVER COLORADO TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOWS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
ON TUESDAY IT WILL BE WARMER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NERN
CO. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH NRN CO. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
COULD STILL SPREAD A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PCPN OVER
THE REGION. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE MDLS GENERATE SOME QPF IN
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AXIS BRUSHES ACROSS NERN CO...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE NERN CO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTN. NOT MUCH
PCPN INITIALLY BUT A FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. SHALLOW UPSLOPE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY 00Z THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. WEAK QG ASCENT AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...STRONGEST FM 06Z TO
18Z THURSDAY AS THE MAIN AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NRN CO. BY THE AFTN...DECREASING QG ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT BUT SHALLOW ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER CO AHEAD OF ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH COLORADO FM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO
THE NERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN MILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
WINDS TRYING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
AIRPORTS...STILL MORE WESTERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA. SHOULD BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR...THOUGH...AS NORTHWEST
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN WITH HELP FROM SUBSIDENCE.
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CURRENT TAFS FOR THE UPCOMING 18Z
ISSUANCE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING CLOCKWISE TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE GOING TO
DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MID LEVEL CLOUD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE...APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST
OF DENVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY...MAY BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA BY THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...AND BRING A
RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED THAT ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS EXITED OUR ADIRONDACK REGION. THE MESO-SCALE HRRR MODEL
INDICATE NO FURTHER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SINCE THERE WAS
NOTHING UPSTREAM...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THAT AREA.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEVERTHELESS BROUGHT SOME SHALLOW COOL AIR
DOWN INTO ADIRONDACKS. DURING THE PAST HOUR THE WIND AT BURLINGTON
SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH (WHERE IT HAS BEEN NORTHERLY). WE BELIEVE
THE FRONT HAS RUN OUT OF STEAM AND SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD...OR AT THE
VERY LEAST...DISSIPATE.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A DRY AND MILD NIGHT.
SO FAR...NO REAL SIGN OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE COMING CLOSE IN VALUE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND. SOME FOG OR STRATUS COULD FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SO...VERY LITTLE TO TINKER WITH FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST SOME VERY
MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE GRIDS. WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EVEN MORE (THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY DID THAT). HOWEVER...WE SEE
WHERE SOME SPOTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY HAVE DECOUPLE AND COOLED OFF.
EVEN AT ALBANY...THE WIND HAS DIMINISHED (BUT STILL A BREEZE STILL
THERE). WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES COULD STILL DROP A
BIT MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
EVEN SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN INCREDIBLY MILD OVERNIGHT FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
THIS WOULD MAKE APRIL 14TH THE MILDEST NIGHT IN THE RECORD BOOKS.
THE MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOW IS 55 SET BACK IN 1941. AS LONG AS WE DO
NOT GET THAT LOW AND STAY ABOVE THAT VALUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WE WILL HAVE A NEW RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
APRIL 14TH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
DUE TO THE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...BUT SINCE IT IS SOUTHERLY
FLOW...IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP...WHICH COULD
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS IN THE OH VALLEY...EVEN
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES
STILL WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND SUSPECT MANY AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO THOSE
LEVELS...WITH A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PERHAPS NW
CT THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE SUNSHINE A BIT. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS BUT NO REAL ORGANIZED
FOCUS TO TRIGGER OR SUPPORT MUCH SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BUT EVEN WITH CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WITH SUCH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE REGION...
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD MIX DOWN IN ANY CONVECTION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EVEN IF THERE MAYBE LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR AS WELL SINCE FORCING
SHOULD BE QUITE EXTREME WITH A VERY UNUSUAL EXTREMELY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES.
TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY...SO AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DECENT CONSENSUS FOR
PRECIPITATION ENDING AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30. DRYING AND
CLEARING TRENDS OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50...SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE EXTENSION OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER WILL BE COLD...IN THE LOW 20S TO AROUND 30.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
WITH A CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY...WELL INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE LOW 60S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DEPENDING ULTIMATELY ON HOW
MUCH DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 30S.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
EXACTLY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM AS THERE ARE
HINTS THAT IT MAY TAP SOME GULF MOISTURE. HIGHS DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE FIRST 18 TO 20 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD (15/00Z-02Z)...
WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...OBSERVATION AND
STLT PICS DO NOT SHOW ANY STRATUS AS OF 0530Z...SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 14/10Z AND 14/14Z. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER
15/02Z...MVFR AND EVEN IFR STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT 10-12 KT AT KALB
AND KPSF WITH GUSTS UP TO 20S KTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE 12-18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
AT KALB/KPSF...AND 20 TO 25 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO GUSTS OF AROUND 15KTS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...BUT GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0.
SHRA...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH TOMORROW...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...AND BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS ARE NOW SNOW FREE...WHILE
SNOW COVER STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...LAKE
GEORGE AREA...THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND OF COURSE THE
ADIRONDACKS.
A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS...
ESPECIALLY THE CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS WILL PREVENT A FULL RECOVERY.
MONDAY WILL BE A WARM MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE AGAIN AVERAGING 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT
GUSTING UP TO OR EVEN A LITTLE OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. RH VALUES LOOK
TO BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT
RIVER RISES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
OTHER RIVERS IN AND THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS...AND
BERKSHIRES WILL SEE MINOR DIURNAL RISES DUE TO SNOW MELT. THE ONLY
AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE REMAINS ARE THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER AND EAST CANADA CREEK. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CAUSE MORE RAPID SNOWMELT
IN THE ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...
RESULTING IN MORE RUNOFF AND RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THE MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE UNCHECKED.
THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS RAIN
ALONG WITH INITIALLY THE WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT COULD EVEN
RESULT IN MINOR TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME MAJOR FLOODING ON SOME
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ONCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE DEGREE
OF SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCHES
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED MONDAY IF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGH
IMPACT FLOODING INCREASES. IT IS ADVISABLE TO STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
126 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBY AT APF TONIGHT
AS MIXING SHOULD BE TOO STRONG AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE MOISTURE INCREASE/INSTABILITY ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND TOO LATE
IN THE FORECAST TO MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN THREAT AFT
18Z.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014/
UPDATE...
A PERSISTENT GROUP OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE INTERACTION OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LAND BREEZE AND THE MEAN EASTERLY FLOW COULD HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF WATERSPOUTS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. THIS
RISK WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE LAND BREEZE WEAKENS WITH THE
TEMPERATURE RISING LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS THAT
AREA ALSO #ISMELLSUMMER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE
FORECAST AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC, ESPECIALLY
FROM FLL TO PBI. ALSO, IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PENINSULA AND ADVECTED OVER THE APF TERMINAL FIELD. THIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFT 13-14Z. SURFACE WIND IS LIGHT E-SE
AND THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KT AFT 14-15Z WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING AT APF AROUND 16-17Z.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014/
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALLOWING
FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE
COLLISION...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TONIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN SOME DRIER WEATHER. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE FRONT WILL COME BACK
NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. SO THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
DRY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE THIS WEEK...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
THE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SWING SLOWLY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEAS BELOW 7 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
949 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
A PERSISTENT GROUP OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE INTERACTION OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LAND BREEZE AND THE MEAN EASTERLY FLOW COULD HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF WATERSPOUTS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. THIS
RISK WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE LAND BREEZE WEAKENS WITH THE
TEMPERATURE RISING LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS THAT
AREA ALSO #ISMELLSUMMER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE
FORECAST AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC, ESPECIALLY
FROM FLL TO PBI. ALSO, IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PENINSULA AND ADVECTED OVER THE APF TERMINAL FIELD. THIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFT 13-14Z. SURFACE WIND IS LIGHT E-SE
AND THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KT AFT 14-15Z WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING AT APF AROUND 16-17Z.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014/
.UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALLOWING
FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE
COLLISION...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TONIGHT. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN SOME DRIER WEATHER. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE FRONT WILL COME BACK
NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT. SO THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
DRY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE THIS WEEK...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
MARINE...
THE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SWING SLOWLY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEAS BELOW 7 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 74 89 66 / 20 10 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 75 88 69 / 20 10 30 30
MIAMI 87 75 88 70 / 10 10 30 30
NAPLES 87 72 84 67 / 10 10 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1205 PM CDT
CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE...INTENSITY...AND TYPE BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT EASTWARD PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SUBTLE WAVES
TRAVERSING THE FLOW CONTINUE TO WORK WITH COLD ADVECTION TO BRING
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE WARMED CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE RAIN BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...PRECIP TYPE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
RAIN OR SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS THAT WOULD SEE
RAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER THERE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE STARTING TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND
TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING
FRONTOGENESIS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE IDEA OF A MORE FOCUSED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT HAVE TRIED TO REFINE DETAILS. WHILE
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HAVE
SLOWED THE PERIOD OF BETTER COVERAGE/INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITHIN THE MOST
INTENSE BAND THANKS TO WELL ALIGNED ASCENT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AND COOLING LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF LESS
INTENSE PRECIP THAT WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO MENDOTA...THEN PIVOT EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING.
MUCH OF THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO FALL
INTO THE PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL...WHICH MAY LAST A FEW
HOURS. THE VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BRING A LULL IN THE
PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT LARGER SCALE FORCING INCREASES TO
THE EAST SO THERE MAY BE RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY MID EVENING BEFORE PRECIP EXITS LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE MID 30S LATER TODAY AND SNOW SHOULD FALL
AT AN INTENSE ENOUGH RATE TO PROVIDE FOR ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON ROADS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
IDEA OF AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
625 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LAST APRIL DATES AND AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL:
CHICAGO: APRIL 18 2011 (0.6 IN.)
ROCKFORD: APRIL 5 2009 (0.2 IN.)
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS THE MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS...LOWERING BACK TOWARDS LOW END MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH BETTER SNOW DEVELOPMENT MOVING OVER THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE LATE
EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
CONTINUED LIGHT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS HOUR WITH ALL SNOW BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NORTH/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND THEN A RAIN SNOW
MIX BEING REPORTED OVER AREAS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS LIGHTER
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A
HEAVIER/STEADIER BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARL EVENING...WITH ANY AREAS OBSERVING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OBSERVING A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. VIS AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER UNDER THIS BETTER DEVELOPMENT...WITH
IFR VIS AND LOW END MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. THIS STEADIER SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. AREAS WILL THEN OBSERVE A
CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN NNW AND NNE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH A TREND TOWARDS NNW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LOWER SPEEDS/GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OF AROUND 21KT NOW LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN/SNOW AND ALL SNOW TRENDS AND
TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
103 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1205 PM CDT
CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE...INTENSITY...AND TYPE BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT EASTWARD PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SUBTLE WAVES
TRAVERSING THE FLOW CONTINUE TO WORK WITH COLD ADVECTION TO BRING
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE WARMED CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE RAIN BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...PRECIP TYPE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
RAIN OR SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS THAT WOULD SEE
RAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER THERE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE STARTING TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND
TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING
FRONTOGENESIS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE IDEA OF A MORE FOCUSED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT HAVE TRIED TO REFINE DETAILS. WHILE
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HAVE
SLOWED THE PERIOD OF BETTER COVERAGE/INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITHIN THE MOST
INTENSE BAND THANKS TO WELL ALIGNED ASCENT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AND COOLING LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF LESS
INTENSE PRECIP THAT WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO MENDOTA...THEN PIVOT EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING.
MUCH OF THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO FALL
INTO THE PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL...WHICH MAY LAST A FEW
HOURS. THE VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BRING A LULL IN THE
PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT LARGER SCALE FORCING INCREASES TO
THE EAST SO THERE MAY BE RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY MID EVENING BEFORE PRECIP EXITS LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE MID 30S LATER TODAY AND SNOW SHOULD FALL
AT AN INTENSE ENOUGH RATE TO PROVIDE FOR ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON ROADS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
IDEA OF AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
625 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LAST APRIL DATES AND AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL:
CHICAGO: APRIL 18 2011 (0.6 IN.)
ROCKFORD: APRIL 5 2009 (0.2 IN.)
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS THE MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS...LOWERING BACK TOWARDS LOW END MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
* RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER SNOW
DEVELOPMENT MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.
* POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE LATE
EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
CONTINUED LIGHT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS HOUR WITH ALL SNOW BEING
REPORTED ACROSS NORTH/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND THEN A RAIN SNOW
MIX BEING REPORTED OVER AREAS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS LIGHTER
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A
HEAVIER/STEADIER BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARL EVENING...WITH ANY AREAS OBSERVING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OBSERVING A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. VIS AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER UNDER THIS BETTER DEVELOPMENT...WITH
IFR VIS AND LOW END MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. THIS STEADIER SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. AREAS WILL THEN OBSERVE A
CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN NNW AND NNE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH A TREND TOWARDS NNW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO LOWER SPEEDS/GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OF AROUND 21KT NOW LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN/SNOW AND ALL SNOW TRENDS AND
TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1210 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1205 PM CDT
CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRECIP
COVERAGE...INTENSITY...AND TYPE BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT EASTWARD PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SUBTLE WAVES
TRAVERSING THE FLOW CONTINUE TO WORK WITH COLD ADVECTION TO BRING
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE WARMED CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE RAIN BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...PRECIP TYPE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
RAIN OR SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS THAT WOULD SEE
RAIN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER THERE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE STARTING TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND
TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN INTENSIFYING
FRONTOGENESIS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE IDEA OF A MORE FOCUSED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT HAVE TRIED TO REFINE DETAILS. WHILE
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HAVE
SLOWED THE PERIOD OF BETTER COVERAGE/INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITHIN THE MOST
INTENSE BAND THANKS TO WELL ALIGNED ASCENT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AND COOLING LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE SNOW WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF LESS
INTENSE PRECIP THAT WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO MENDOTA...THEN PIVOT EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING.
MUCH OF THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE CHICAGO METRO LOOKS TO FALL
INTO THE PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL...WHICH MAY LAST A FEW
HOURS. THE VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BRING A LULL IN THE
PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT LARGER SCALE FORCING INCREASES TO
THE EAST SO THERE MAY BE RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA
BY MID EVENING BEFORE PRECIP EXITS LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE MID 30S LATER TODAY AND SNOW SHOULD FALL
AT AN INTENSE ENOUGH RATE TO PROVIDE FOR ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON ROADS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
IDEA OF AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
MDB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
625 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LAST APRIL DATES AND AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL:
CHICAGO: APRIL 18 2011 (0.6 IN.)
ROCKFORD: APRIL 5 2009 (0.2 IN.)
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS THE MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS...LOWERING BACK TOWARDS LOW END MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY N WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TURNING NNE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* SNOW OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NNW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT. AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVERNIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS ALSO DWINDLED
AND EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AT
THAT TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RFD MAY BE
CLIPPED BY THIS PRECIP...BUT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE DIRECT SHOT. AT THE ONSET...TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...PARTICULARLY AT MDW AND
GYY...BUT THE COLUMN WILL COOL AND EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...
OF UP TO AROUND AND INCH. WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE
330-360 DIRECTION TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT THIS MORNING VERY
SLOWLY TAPERING THROUGH THE DAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CIGS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
625 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LAST APRIL DATES AND AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL:
CHICAGO: APRIL 18 2011 (0.6 IN.)
ROCKFORD: APRIL 5 2009 (0.2 IN.)
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS THE MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS...LOWERING BACK TOWARDS LOW END MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY N WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY TURNING NNE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* SNOW OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NNW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT. AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVERNIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS ALSO DWINDLED
AND EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AT
THAT TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RFD MAY BE
CLIPPED BY THIS PRECIP...BUT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE DIRECT SHOT. AT THE ONSET...TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...PARTICULARLY AT MDW AND
GYY...BUT THE COLUMN WILL COOL AND EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...
OF UP TO AROUND AND INCH. WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE
330-360 DIRECTION TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT THIS MORNING VERY
SLOWLY TAPERING THROUGH THE DAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CIGS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
625 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LAST APRIL DATES AND AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL:
CHICAGO: APRIL 18 2011 (0.6 IN.)
ROCKFORD: APRIL 5 2009 (0.2 IN.)
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS THE MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX EXITING THIS NEXT HALF HOUR...WITH MVFR
CIGS REMAINING.
* GUSTY N WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY TURNING NNE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* SNOW OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NNW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT. AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVERNIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS ALSO DWINDLED
AND EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AT
THAT TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RFD MAY BE
CLIPPED BY THIS PRECIP...BUT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE DIRECT SHOT. AT THE ONSET...TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...PARTICULARLY AT MDW AND
GYY...BUT THE COLUMN WILL COOL AND EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...
OF UP TO AROUND AND INCH. WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE
330-360 DIRECTION TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT THIS MORNING VERY
SLOWLY TAPERING THROUGH THE DAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AND CIG/VIS TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
633 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
625 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LAST APRIL DATES AND AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL:
CHICAGO: APRIL 18 2011 (0.6 IN.)
ROCKFORD: APRIL 5 2009 (0.2 IN.)
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS THE MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN/IFR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...THEN PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS.
* GUSTY NNW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
* SNOW OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NNW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT. AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVERNIGHT WITH
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS ALSO DWINDLED
AND EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AT
THAT TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RFD MAY BE
CLIPPED BY THIS PRECIP...BUT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE DIRECT SHOT. AT THE ONSET...TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...PARTICULARLY AT MDW AND
GYY...BUT THE COLUMN WILL COOL AND EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...
OF UP TO AROUND AND INCH. WINDS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE
330-360 DIRECTION TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT THIS MORNING VERY
SLOWLY TAPERING THROUGH THE DAY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AND CIG/VIS TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN. MVFR/IFR PSBL.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
627 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
625 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LAST APRIL DATES AND AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL:
CHICAGO: APRIL 18 2011 (0.6 IN.)
ROCKFORD: APRIL 5 2009 (0.2 IN.)
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS THE MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS DROPPING NEAR OR TO IFR.
* OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AND CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE LIES NEAR MLI TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 007-010 BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...TO AROUND 30 KT OR SO AT TIMES
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TAPERING GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE TOMORROW...IT DOES APPEAR
MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPS FALL
TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE EVENING CHANCES BECOME A BIT BETTER.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT
FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT
TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM
A SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW.
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
400 AM CDT
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF APRIL 15TH. THE
CHICAGO ONE IS MOST LIKELY IN JEOPARDY.
CHICAGO: 25 (1943)
ROCKFORD: 16 (1928)
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS DROPPING NEAR OR TO IFR.
* OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AND CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE LIES NEAR MLI TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 007-010 BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...TO AROUND 30 KT OR SO AT TIMES
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TAPERING GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE TOMORROW...IT DOES APPEAR
MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPS FALL
TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE EVENING CHANCES BECOME A BIT BETTER.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
330 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
THE INFAMOUS WINTER 2013-2014 BEGAN IN OCTOBER WITH SNOW AND TODAY
IT WANTS TO MAKE SURE IT INCLUDES APRIL TO ENCOMPASS SEVEN MONTHS.
THIS UNFRIENDLY VERY LATE VISIT FROM WINTER WAS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THIS WEEK...POTENTIALLY TO RECORD
LEVELS TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...
THE 995MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING OVER THE NORTH METRO OF CHICAGO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ITS PATH SEPARATES
60S AND CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AND 30S AND DEFORMATION SNOW. THE
DEEPENING AND CLASSIC LOOKING UPPER WAVE WITH THIS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST WI AND ITS DEFORMATION AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL ONLY GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A MIX WITH WET
SNOW IS PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...THE FORCING FOR
MODEST SNOW RATES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN THE A.M. HOURS
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NOON. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES...WHICH BESIDES ADDING QUITE A CHILL TO THE AIR...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY UP BY ROCKFORD IF SNOW CAN MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THOUGH...IMPACTS LOOK MINOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A SECOND WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASICALLY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF WHAT REALLY IS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JANUARY-LIKE -40C OBSERVED AT
500MB LAST NIGHT ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO CYQD IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW...PV ANOMALY EVOLUTION...AND MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY...THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVE. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT FOCUSED OMEGA
AND FRONTOGENETIC SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION DURING THAT PERIOD AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIKELY REACHING
THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE 3-6 PM TIME. SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO COOL WITH THE FEATURE AND THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH DIABATIC
EFFECTS. ITS QUITE RARE TO SEE SNOW HERE DURING APRIL /ESPECIALLY
MID-APRIL/ AFTERNOONS...BUT DO SEE PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO STAY
AS RAIN GIVEN RAP AND NAM FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND JUST THE
DEGREE OF FORCING. SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IS FAVORED DURING THE RUSH
HOUR...AND PROBABLY THE FIRST HALF AT THAT. SUPPRESSION ALOFT FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE LATE THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT AND WILL END THE
SNOW /FOR GOOD FINALLY?/.
ANY INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK WITH 4-INCH SOIL TEMPS
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND THE WET GROUND IN PLACES...BUT THE FORCING
LIKELY IS TO WIN OUT FOR A LIGHT COATING ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THIS IS PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE...AS THAT IS THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST FORCING AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PLACEMENT THOUGH...AS SOME MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY. ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH TO A LITTLE OVER
MAY OCCUR IN THE AREA THAT DOES END UP SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
THANKS TO DECENT SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FLAT-LINE AND EVEN DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS PRECIPITATION EVOLVES INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO THE -10C ARENA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT CHICAGO CLOSING IN ON A RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT
/CALENDAR DAY OF APRIL 15/. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS MAINLY QUIET. A
CHILLY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW STARTING POINT AND THE
850-925MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER US IN THE MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING THAT AFTERNOON WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE AND THAT WILL OF COURSE IMPACT TEMPERATURES
GREATLY. THIS INCLUDES HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PREVENT
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 20S...AND HAVE INCHED UP FORECAST VALUES
SOME FAVORING A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. WILL NEED TO WAIT TO THAT PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO GET TOO FANCY
WITH TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
GIVEN A MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...ANY SHARP ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST
INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE HALTED/SLOWED. WE WILL BUILD HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY THURSDAY BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCING A PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND PRODUCING
LIKELY RAIN IN THE GENERAL REGION. THIS COULD SLOW SOME GIVEN THE
BACKED UP FLOW TO OUR EAST...AND HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT FROM A
SMART BLEND OF GUIDANCE POPS...SLOWING THEM SOMEWHAT. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS AND
PRECIP ARE AS PROLIFIC AS MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING NOW. GRADUALLY
BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM DEPARTURE SOMETIME LATE
FRIDAY/THIS WEEKEND.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING SHARPLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS DROPPING NEAR OR TO IFR.
* OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AND CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW PRESSURE LIES NEAR MLI TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...BUT AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW. CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 007-010 BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...TO AROUND 30 KT OR SO AT TIMES
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TAPERING GRADUALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE TOMORROW...IT DOES APPEAR
MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPS FALL
TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE EVENING CHANCES BECOME A BIT BETTER.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE LAKE
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART EAST. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE LAKE. RIDGING WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO BRIEFLY SUBSIDE...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
4 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
PM MONDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
120 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL TAPER IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
SMALL SCALE UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD EXIT FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT OVER. LULL IN PRECIP WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOTED PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ACROSS THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 09Z. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDING WITH THIS STRONGER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF 1.25-1.40 INCH PWAT AXIS
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SHOULD PROMOTE SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING AROUND AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN RECENT WET
PERIOD/MOIST SOILS. MAIN TWEAKS TO FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED TRENDS...ALONG WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMP
CURVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COOLER TEMPS RESIDE INITIALLY DUE TO
EARLIER MARINE INFLUENCE. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL
MOIST TONGUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OVR KS THIS AFTN WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO
THE MI THUMB BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND PROPEL A STG CDFNT EWD ACRS
THE AREA. SO FAR WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN A DUD WITH THIS SYS OWING TO
POOR MSTR RTN UNDERNEATH STEEP EML AND SEE LTL EVIDENCE THAT WILL
CHANGE INTO EARLY EVE.
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL XPCD LT TONIGHT AHD AND ALG SFC FNTL
BNDRY. HWVR WKNG CAP WITHIN ZONE OF FVRBL THETA-E AND SUSTAINED LL
WAA STILL WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SOME POPS NW THIRD THROUGH EVENING.
OTRWS STG POST FNTL CAA WEDGE FOLLOWS MON AM W/CRASHING SFC TEMPS.
LINGERING POST FNTL SHRA XPCD IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY LARGELY DRY
CONDS IN THE AFTN ASSOCD/W MID LVL DRY SLOT OF EXITING SYS ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
FOCUS OF FORECAST WILL BE ON ARRIVAL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LONG GONE BY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE REGION IN
A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP TO START THINGS OUT. THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF INCREASED MSTR AND LIFT. MODELS DO VARY ON EXACTLY HOW
MUCH QPF BUT IN GENERAL PAINT THE NEED FOR LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR
MOST AREAS FOR A PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE 3Z TO 9Z TUES TIME FRAME.
HAVE BROKE GRIDS INTO 3 HOUR BLOCKS TO TRY TO ADD SOME DETAIL IN
TERMS OF TIMING. GIVEN RATHER PRONOUNCED/FAST ARRIVING PUNCH OF COLD
AIR...MIX POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LOOKING MORE LIMITED WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS AND SFC TEMPS ALL POINTING TOWARDS ALL SNOW. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE LIE WITH HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS AND POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS. IMPRESSIVE 850 MB DROP FOR MID APRIL WITH VALUES FROM
-8 TO - 10 C DURING BEST PRECIP WINDOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK MANY
AREAS WILL SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO START THINGS OFF IN THE
EVENING...WITH THIS SNOW BEING LESS WET WITH TIME AS COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN AND SNOW RATIOS INCREASE SOMEWHAT. IF WE WERE STILL
ENTRENCHED IN THE GENERALLY COLD PATTERN...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW STICKING AROUND AND CAUSING A LOT OF
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COLD AIR ARRIVING...ROAD/GROUND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN THE 70S OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MELTING OF A LOT OF THE
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS. HOWEVER...IF SNOW CAN COME DOWN HARD
ENOUGH IT MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE AND STICK AROUND BRIEFLY INTO
PARTS OF TUESDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 30S TO NEAR 40. GRIDS
REFLECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SE
AREAS WHERE MSTR WILL LINGER LONGER. AGAIN...IT NEEDS TO BE STRESSED
THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE IN THE EVENING BUT
OVERNIGHT...ROADS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY IN SOME AREAS AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S. FORECAST WILL NEED FINE TUNING FURTHER
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN UNTIL
THURS NGT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING...FINALLY FORCING A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST THROUGH SBN AROUND 12/13Z AND FWA 15/16Z.
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER AND DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT IN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CHANNEL/50-60 KT
LLJ. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
BOUNDARY...WITH IFR TO MID RANGE MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ANTICIPATED IN STRONG POST FRONTAL CAA WEDGE LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA IN
ADVANCE OF A CONSOLIDATING/AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH.
RENEWED MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL THERMAL PROFILES
ACTUALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW IN SBN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW IN FWA LATE IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
AREAS OF FOG BEING INTRODUCED TO NEARSHORE WATERS WITH WEB CAMS
SHOWING FOG OFFSHORE...MORE THAN LIKELY MORE IN THE 3 TO 5 NM
RANGE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR NEED FOR MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BUT MAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN IN OPEN WATERS.
WILL ALSO HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IF NOT INTO TUESDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS BUT HAVE KEPT WORDING TONED DOWN
FOR THE TIME BEING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
MARINE...FISHER
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KS WITH N-NW GRADIENT OVER
KS/NE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR CWA. SNOW PACK HAS RETREATED
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...WHILE VIS SATELLITE INDICATES IT HOLDING ON
OVER PARTS OF NE COLORADO AND ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE WHERE AROUND
INCHES OF SNOW FELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH H3 JET STEAM IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING AND HAS LED TO
CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS NOSE OF JET
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG WITH
THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYER FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA...OTHERWISE WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CU OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS A
BETTER SHOWER WE COULD SEE A FLURRY INSTEAD OF SPRINKLE
THROUGH...BUT I DIDN`T SEE A REASON TO GET THAT CUTE CONSIDERING
CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY LOW ON PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR NE
CWA.
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
W-SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY...CONTINUE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOW PACK COULD STILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH
SW WINDS COMING FROM SNOW FREE LOCATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
MELTING OF SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WEST
AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTING LOWER TD VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A DECREASING TREND IN THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST...SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR WIND/RH CROSSOVER. OF COURSE THERE IS ALSO THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER FUELS WILL BE CURED AFTER RECENT PRECIP
(ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK). WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERLY BRANCH TRIES TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERLY
BRANCH.
THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF
LAGS BEHIND NEARLY 24 HOURS. THIS IS PROVING TO BE TROUBLESOME
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN A
LATE FRIDAY TO LATE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH SOME KIND
OF BLENDED COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION.
BACKTRACKING TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY END UP STAYING MORE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLDER AND WET BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER AS THEY WERE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM THAT
DEPOSITED SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
LAYER OF CU 3000-5000KFT AGL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR GLD WITH WEAKLY
UNSTABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SECOND AREA
OF CU ASSOCIATED THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT
OF NEBRASKA OVER KMCK. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH
THESE CLOUDS CLEARING AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST WITH LEE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY TO
25KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER. AT KMCK...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1254 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KS WITH N-NW GRADIENT OVER
KS/NE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR CWA. SNOW PACK HAS RETREATED
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...WHILE VIS SATELLITE INDICATES IT HOLDING ON
OVER PARTS OF NE COLORADO AND ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE WHERE AROUND
INCHES OF SNOW FELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH H3 JET STEAM IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING AND HAS LED TO
CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS NOSE OF JET
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG WITH
THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYER FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA...OTHERWISE WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CU OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS A
BETTER SHOWER WE COULD SEE A FLURRY INSTEAD OF SPRINKLE
THROUGH...BUT I DIDN`T SEE A REASON TO GET THAT CUTE CONSIDERING
CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY LOW ON PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR NE
CWA.
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
W-SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY...CONTINUE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOW PACK COULD STILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH
SW WINDS COMING FROM SNOW FREE LOCATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
MELTING OF SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WEST
AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTING LOWER TD VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A DECREASING TREND IN THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST...SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR WIND/RH CROSSOVER. OF COURSE THERE IS ALSO THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER FUELS WILL BE CURED AFTER RECENT PRECIP
(ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK). WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS INDICATE THE PRECIP. WILL BE
SNOW. THE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD ALLOW THE
SNOW TO BE WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA DO NOT INDICATE ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST
100 MB OR SO WHICH WOULD KEEP SNOWFALL RATES ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD ALLOW THE
SNOW TO MELT AS IT FALLS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EAST HALF WITH LESS TO THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A TROUGH ALSO DEEPENING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL
WITH IT. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THEN WARM TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014
LAYER OF CU 3000-5000KFT AGL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR GLD WITH WEAKLY
UNSTABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SECOND AREA
OF CU ASSOCIATED THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT
OF NEBRASKA OVER KMCK. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH
THESE CLOUDS CLEARING AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST WITH LEE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY TO
25KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER. AT KMCK...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1138 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
SNOWFALL IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION. SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEWER MODEL DATA IS CONFIRMING WHAT RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWING WITH THE DECREASING TREND OF THE SNOW. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR AND
NORTON COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
HAVE RECENTLY COMPLETED A COUPLE OF UPDATES. HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH WINDS BELOW CRITERIA. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKING ON TRACK. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS TO REFLECT THE
TRENDS SEEN ON OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOING FINE WITH EXPECTED LIFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EASTERN END OF THE ADVISORY MAY NOT GET TOO MUCH MORE SNOW BUT WILL
KEEP IT WITH THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF SNOW COMBINED WITH WHAT HAS
ALREADY AND THE WINDY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.
REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATES WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY DURING THAT
TIME. BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
REGIONS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN AT KMCK AND WILL SOON FOLLOW AT KGLD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE GUSTY WINDS LATER ON TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY AROUND MID MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
20Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave lifting across eastern
KS as another wave digs south towards the four corners region.
This initial wave has sparked a line of thunderstorms to form
along a cold front that is surging southeast through the forecast
area. Much of the short range guidance is pointing towards the
convection to be east of the forecast area by 7 pm, which fits in
with current radar trends. Therefore have lowered pops for this
evening and removed mention of thunder. There is a band of snow
across NEB. The HRRR and RAP suggest the tail end of this precip
may move east along the NEB state line through the evening as the
first shortwave lifts northeast. Precip accumulations with this
should be fairly light as the better mid level frontogenesis stays
mainly to the north. However as the second shortwave comes out of
the Rockies late tonight and through the morning Monday, this
frontogenetical band redevelops south and most guidance is
pointing at a band of snow moving over east central KS. The
frontogenesis looks strong enough for a decent band of snow and
possible accumulations around an inch through late morning Monday.
This will be highly dependent on the intensity of the snowfall
however since ground temps remain relatively warm. If the band
produces higher snowfall rates, some parts of east central KS
could see accumulations a little higher.
In between the convection this afternoon and the frontogenetical
precip overnight, think there will be a lull in the precip and
have tapered pops down this evening. Models show saturation in the
lower levels hinting at the possibility for some drizzle which
could be freezing depending on surface temps. However the
conditions for drizzle do not look to persist for long as some mid
level drying occurs before the next shortwave moves in and
saturates the column. Overall am not to excited about the
prospects for drizzle but can`t rule out the chance so will
include a mention in the forecast.
Lows tonight should fall into the lower 30s due to strong cold air
advection behind the front. Temps in central NEB have already
fallen into the upper 20s suggesting my lows may not be cool
enough. In any case, freezing temps look likely tonight and will
issue as freeze warning as we have entered the locally defined
growing season. Cold air advection persists through the morning
Monday so highs are not expected to warm much. However think
clouds will eventually clear out by the afternoon so some
insolation may help to warm highs into the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Monday night through Wednesday looks dry as the central plains see
dry northwest flow develop ahead of the next wave expected to dig
into the plains by Thursday. The medium range models seem to be in
some agreement with timing of the next wave therefore have trended
pops up for Thursday and Thursday night. There does not appear to
be much instability with this system as warm moist are is slow to
return. However there does appear to be another shot of cold air
moving in Thursday night which could cause a brief change over to
snow before the precip comes to an end. Therefore have maintained
a mention of rain and snow for Thursday night.
While less certain, there are indications of a southern stream
wave trying to phase with a northern stream wave over the area
Sunday. Confidence is low since the GFS struggles to advect
moisture this far north. However with the ECMWF breaking out some
QPF, will insert some low (20-30%) POPs Saturday night and Sunday.
A hard freeze looks likely Tuesday morning as skies clear out and
surface ridging moves over the region. Therefore have continued
with lows in the lower to middle 20s and will post a freeze
warning through Tuesday morning too. Southerly flow returns for
Wednesday helping to moderate the cool temps before the next cold
front moves in Thursday and knocks temps back down into the 40s
and 50s for Thursday and Friday. With a split flow for the weekend
and the northern stream remaining north, temps should moderate
into the 60s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
MVFR conditions should persist through for the remainder of
tonight. A band of snow will develop over south central KS early
tomorrow morning and move northeast towards the taf sites. MHK may
be on the northern edge of the axis of snow therefore have
shortened the period of snow there. There could be a brief period
of moderate to heavy snow that would cause IFR vis but confidence
for that occurring is low at this point. Conditions should improve
to VFR after the snow band exits the taf sites.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A FEW UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
SURFACE OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS...DECIDED TO LOWER TODAYS HOURLY AND
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WITH
MOIST GROUND...STEADY WINDS...AND PERSISTENT OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER...DID NOT SEEM REASONABLE THAT PREVIOUS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AREA WIDE WERE REACHABLE. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
DATA...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR...SEEMED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PRECIP CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SEEMS TO HAVE A DISTINCT BACK EDGE THAT WILL BE THROUGH OUR AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE SENDING OUT UPDATED VERSIONS OF
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND FREEZE WATCH. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR
TODAY HAVE BEEN MEETING LAKE WIND CRITERIA AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THIS WILL CEASE TO BE THE CASE THE REST OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR HAS STUCK TO ITS SCENARIO
TODAY REGARDING SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST NOW WORKING INTO THE I-75
CORRIDOR...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. NOT SURE
IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH LIQUID WITH SUCH DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INITIAL
TROUGH HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS IT PUSHED INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH
MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. AS IT REACHES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
EVEN MORE SO AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. WHILE A FASTER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TODAY...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ONLY A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT
AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THUS...GOING TO BACK OFF POPS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST MAY NOT MEASURE TODAY OR WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...WE MAY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WITH 40 KNOTS AROUND
900 MB. THIS MAY CREATE SOME VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS.
MEANWHILE...A SHARPER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO DIG OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE AND MOVE EAST...IT WILL ACCELERATE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND POSE NO SEVERE
THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR SOME MOISTURE WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YIELDING AN A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN JUST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ESCAPE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND WILL SIMPLY BE TOO WARM.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2.5KFT AS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WILL GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...AGREEING ON CLEARING SKIES AND EASING
WINDS LEADING TO A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RETURN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...SO EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS. FROST
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BECOME MORE DISPARATE AS
TIME GOES BY. IN GENERAL TERMS...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE NEAR THE GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS WEAKER NEAR THE GULF COAST...BUT MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS AFFECTS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING THE GREATEST POP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GFS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP. THE
DIFFERING SURFACE PATTERNS ALSO AFFECT HOW MUCH COLDER FLOWS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE VARY
QUITE A BIT FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...AND LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF
PATTERN...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GENERALIZED MODEL
COMPROMISE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 4Z TONIGHT. THE ISSUE
FOR AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR
BOTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND POINTS WESTWARD...IT APPEARS THAT THE
REST OF THE DAY COULD BE RAIN FREE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BETWEEN 4 AND 6Z TONIGHT AT THE
TAF SITES. UNTIL THEN...THE AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
OVERCAST CIGS OF 3-6K ACROSS THE BOARD. JKL WILL LIKELY SEE THE
LOWEST CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WHEN
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS WEATHER
WILL FEATURE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BIT OF SLEET EARLY IN MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1136 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A FEW UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
SURFACE OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS...DECIDED TO LOWER TODAYS HOURLY AND
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WITH
MOIST GROUND...STEADY WINDS...AND PERSISTENT OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER...DID NOT SEEM REASONABLE THAT PREVIOUS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AREA WIDE WERE REACHABLE. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
DATA...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR...SEEMED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PRECIP CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SEEMS TO HAVE A DISTINCT BACK EDGE THAT WILL BE THROUGH OUR AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE SENDING OUT UPDATED VERSIONS OF
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND FREEZE WATCH. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR
TODAY HAVE BEEN MEETING LAKE WIND CRITERIA AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THIS WILL CEASE TO BE THE CASE THE REST OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR HAS STUCK TO ITS SCENARIO
TODAY REGARDING SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST NOW WORKING INTO THE I-75
CORRIDOR...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. NOT SURE
IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH LIQUID WITH SUCH DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INITIAL
TROUGH HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS IT PUSHED INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH
MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. AS IT REACHES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
EVEN MORE SO AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. WHILE A FASTER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TODAY...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ONLY A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT
AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THUS...GOING TO BACK OFF POPS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST MAY NOT MEASURE TODAY OR WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...WE MAY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WITH 40 KNOTS AROUND
900 MB. THIS MAY CREATE SOME VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS.
MEANWHILE...A SHARPER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO DIG OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE AND MOVE EAST...IT WILL ACCELERATE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND POSE NO SEVERE
THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR SOME MOISTURE WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YIELDING AN A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN JUST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ESCAPE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND WILL SIMPLY BE TOO WARM.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2.5KFT AS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WILL GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...AGREEING ON CLEARING SKIES AND EASING
WINDS LEADING TO A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RETURN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...SO EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS. FROST
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BECOME MORE DISPARATE AS
TIME GOES BY. IN GENERAL TERMS...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE NEAR THE GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS WEAKER NEAR THE GULF COAST...BUT MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS AFFECTS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING THE GREATEST POP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GFS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP. THE
DIFFERING SURFACE PATTERNS ALSO AFFECT HOW MUCH COLDER FLOWS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE VARY
QUITE A BIT FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...AND LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF
PATTERN...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GENERALIZED MODEL
COMPROMISE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. .
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH AS THEY COULD
REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER
WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A SHARP WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER AS WINDS GO FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS COMING
DOWN LATE TONIGHT TO MVFR OR LOWER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
703 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR HAS STUCK TO ITS SCENARIO
TODAY REGARDING SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST NOW WORKING INTO THE I-75
CORRIDOR...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. NOT SURE
IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH LIQUID WITH SUCH DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INITIAL
TROUGH HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS IT PUSHED INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH
MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. AS IT REACHES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
EVEN MORE SO AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. WHILE A FASTER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TODAY...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ONLY A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT
AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THUS...GOING TO BACK OFF POPS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST MAY NOT MEASURE TODAY OR WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...WE MAY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WITH 40 KNOTS AROUND
900 MB. THIS MAY CREATE SOME VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS.
MEANWHILE...A SHARPER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO DIG OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE AND MOVE EAST...IT WILL ACCELERATE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND POSE NO SEVERE
THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR SOME MOISTURE WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YIELDING AN A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN JUST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ESCAPE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND WILL SIMPLY BE TOO WARM.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2.5KFT AS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WILL GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...AGREEING ON CLEARING SKIES AND EASING
WINDS LEADING TO A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RETURN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...SO EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS. FROST
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BECOME MORE DISPARATE AS
TIME GOES BY. IN GENERAL TERMS...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE NEAR THE GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS WEAKER NEAR THE GULF COAST...BUT MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS AFFECTS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING THE GREATEST POP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GFS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP. THE
DIFFERING SURFACE PATTERNS ALSO AFFECT HOW MUCH COLDER FLOWS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE VARY
QUITE A BIT FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...AND LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF
PATTERN...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GENERALIZED MODEL
COMPROMISE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. .
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH AS THEY COULD
REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER
WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A SHARP WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER AS WINDS GO FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS COMING
DOWN LATE TONIGHT TO MVFR OR LOWER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
449 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INITIAL
TROUGH HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS IT PUSHED INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH
MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. AS IT REACHES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
EVEN MORE SO AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. WHILE A FASTER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TODAY...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ONLY A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT
AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THUS...GOING TO BACK OFF POPS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST MAY NOT MEASURE TODAY OR WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...WE MAY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WITH 40 KNOTS AROUND
900 MB. THIS MAY CREATE SOME VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS.
MEANWHILE...A SHARPER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO DIG OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE AND MOVE EAST...IT WILL ACCELERATE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND POSE NO SEVERE
THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR SOME MOISTURE WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YIELDING AN A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN JUST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ESCAPE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND WILL SIMPLY BE TOO WARM.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2.5KFT AS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WILL GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...AGREEING ON CLEARING SKIES AND EASING
WINDS LEADING TO A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RETURN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...SO EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS. FROST
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
ON THURDAY NIGHT IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BECOME MORE DISPARATE AS
TIME GOES BY. IN GENERAL TERMS...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE NEAR THE GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS WEAKER NEAR THE GULF COAST...BUT MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS AFFECTS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING THE GREATEST POP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GFS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP. THE
DIFFERING SURFACE PATTERNS ALSO AFFECT HOW MUCH COLDER FLOWS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE VARY
QUITE A BIT FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...AND LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF
PATTERN...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GENERALIZED MODEL
COMPROMISE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN WINDS
WILL RAMP UP BY MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ANTICIPATED AND THESE
GUSTS COULD REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE ARRIVING AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE WEST. A SHARP
WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT OR LATER AS WINDS GO FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS COMING DOWN LATE TONIGHT TO MVFR OR
LOWER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INITIAL
TROUGH HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS IT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH
MORE STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. AS IT REACHES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
EVEN MORE SO AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. WHILE A FASTER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TODAY...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ONLY A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT
AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THUS...GOING TO BACK OFF POPS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST MAY NOT MEASURE TODAY OR WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...WE MAY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WITH 40 KNOTS AROUND
900 MB. THIS MAY CREATE SOME VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS.
MEANWHILE...A SHARPER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO DIG OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE AND MOVE EAST...IT WILL ACCELERATE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND POSE NO SEVERE
THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR SOME MOISTURE WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YIELDING AN A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN JUST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ESCAPE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND WILL SIMPLY BE TOO WARM.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2.5KFT AS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WILL GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN WINDS
WILL RAMP UP BY MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ANTICIPATED AND THESE
GUSTS COULD REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE ARRIVING AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE WEST. A SHARP
WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT OR LATER AS WINDS GO FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS COMING DOWN LATE TONIGHT TO MVFR OR
LOWER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
STORM INTENSITIES ARE INCREASING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...PROMPTING A SEVERE TSTM WATCH THRU 5
PM...FOR HAIL. NO DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
AREA...WITH STG COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY. SMALL SHOWERS
ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...SO
RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY./VII/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TYR...TXK
TERMINALS AND ALMOST ON TOP OF THE GGG TERMINAL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS
FROM NEAR LFK TO MLU AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM. CEILINGS DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT GO TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT THEN BECOME MVFR
WHILE CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY MVFR.
FOR THE TERMINAL PACKAGE TODAY...PREVAILED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VCSH AND/OR VCTS MENTION. LATEST HRRR DATA
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO MADE MENTION OF
THIS AS WELL. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THUS...EXPECT SUSTAINED POST FRONTAL WINDS OF 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND EXPECTING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
/13/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.
NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 36 60 36 68 / 40 20 0 0 0
MLU 70 36 60 33 67 / 40 40 0 0 0
DEQ 55 30 60 32 66 / 30 10 0 0 0
TXK 58 34 60 36 66 / 30 10 0 0 0
ELD 65 33 60 32 66 / 40 30 0 0 0
TYR 58 34 61 36 68 / 40 10 0 0 0
GGG 62 34 61 34 68 / 40 10 0 0 0
LFK 70 36 63 34 69 / 50 20 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ060-061-071>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096.
&&
$$
VII
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
949 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
AREA...WITH STG COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY. SMALL SHOWERS
ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...SO
RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TYR...TXK
TERMINALS AND ALMOST ON TOP OF THE GGG TERMINAL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS
FROM NEAR LFK TO MLU AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM. CEILINGS DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT GO TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT THEN BECOME MVFR
WHILE CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY MVFR.
FOR THE TERMINAL PACKAGE TODAY...PREVAILED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VCSH AND/OR VCTS MENTION. LATEST HRRR DATA
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO MADE MENTION OF
THIS AS WELL. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THUS...EXPECT SUSTAINED POST FRONTAL WINDS OF 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND EXPECTING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
/13/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.
NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 36 60 36 68 / 40 20 0 0 0
MLU 70 36 60 33 67 / 60 40 0 0 0
DEQ 55 30 60 32 66 / 30 10 0 0 0
TXK 58 34 60 36 66 / 30 10 0 0 0
ELD 65 33 60 32 66 / 40 30 0 0 0
TYR 58 34 61 36 68 / 40 10 0 0 0
GGG 62 34 61 34 68 / 40 10 0 0 0
LFK 70 36 63 34 69 / 50 20 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ060-061-071>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
705 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TYR...TXK
TERMINALS AND ALMOST ON TOP OF THE GGG TERMINAL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS
FROM NEAR LFK TO MLU AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM. CEILINGS DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT GO TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT THEN BECOME MVFR
WHILE CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY MVFR.
FOR THE TERMINAL PACKAGE TODAY...PREVAILED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VCSH AND/OR VCTS MENTION. LATEST HRRR DATA
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO MADE MENTION OF
THIS AS WELL. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THUS...EXPECT SUSTAINED POST FRONTAL WINDS OF 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND EXPECTING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
/13/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.
NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 36 60 36 68 / 60 20 0 0 0
MLU 70 36 60 33 67 / 70 40 0 0 0
DEQ 55 30 60 32 66 / 30 10 0 0 0
TXK 58 34 60 36 66 / 30 10 0 0 0
ELD 65 33 60 32 66 / 60 30 0 0 0
TYR 58 34 61 36 68 / 30 10 0 0 0
GGG 62 34 61 34 68 / 30 10 0 0 0
LFK 70 36 63 34 69 / 60 20 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ060-061-071>073.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
622 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM UPDATE: MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR E
A BAND OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL SHWRS REACH INTO OUR FA LATER TNGT. OF
THE MODELS...THE 18Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING QPF
VALUES OF 0.10-0.25 AS FAR E AS W CNTRL TO NE PTNS OF THE FA.
OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF HARDLY BRINGS ANY RNFL EVEN
INTO THE NW PTN OF THE FA. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SCENARIOS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HRLY HRRR MODEL SIMULATED
FCST RADAR REF SUGGESTS BRINGING UPWARDS OF ARND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO NW PTNS OF THE FA AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE...RESULTING
IN INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY CAT OVR THE NW LATER TNGT AND
KEEPING CHC OR LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE.
REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL...BASED ON INITIAL NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF
FOG...WE DELAYED THE ONSET TIL 10 PM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS TIL
PROGRESSIVELY AS LATE AS 2 AM OVR THE NW AND FAR NE...THINKING
THAT SATURATION OF THE LLVL AIR MASS WILL WORK NW FROM THE
COAST...BUT WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THIS TMG WITH IT POSSIBLE
THAT FOG COULD BREAK OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY OVR RELATIVELY LARGE PTNS
OF THE FA ANYTIME AFT 9 PM. LASTLY...WE UPDATED FCST HRLY TEMPS TO
UNCHGD FCST OVRNGT LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM FROM 5 PM OBSVD TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
ICE JAMS/RISING RIVER LEVELS AND THIS ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL IN
THE HYDRO SECTION BLO...
AS OF MID AFTN...MOST ALL OF THE FA NOW INTO THE WARM AIR XCPT
FOR FAR N AND NERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO ROOT
OUT... TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S W/ MID 40S STILL
AT KFVE. AFTN MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS AM TO
BURN OFF BUT W/ PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALL THE SNOW
MELT AND A VRY COLD GROUND SFC SHOULD ALLOW FOG/STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
THIS EVE W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING.
UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TNGT THRU
TUE AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE ERN GRT LAKES
APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER TUE. EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S MOST AREAS WILL KEEP AN ACCELERATED SNOW MELT IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPS AND RAPID SNOW MELT...A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TAP AS A PD OF MDT TO LOCALLY
HVY RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM W-E
ON TUE AND CONTS INTO TUE NGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SNOW
MELT/RUNOFF RESULTING IN RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
LINGERING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAINE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA MORE AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE GFS BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW MOSTLY SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MAINE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS WILL STICK
WITH THE BLEND APPROACH WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: STRATUS/FOG HAS BURNED OFF ALL BUT KFVE AS VERY WARM
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FA AND ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MIX OUT. MELTING SNOW WILL LEAVE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND W/ A VRY COLD SFC...FOG/STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVE
AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUE AM.
THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE TO GIVE WAY TO LIFR
AGAIN ALL TAF SITES BY LATE EVE W/ THESE CONDS CONTG TUE. A SLOW
MOVG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP
PRIMARILY IFR CONDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUE...
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME EARLY MORNING
IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE GLW WATCH IN FAVOR OF A GLW WRNG FROM
12Z TUE THRU 08Z WED... BRISK SRLY WNDS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS ERLY WED AM...
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST
HOWEVER SEAS MAY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU WED... UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIR CONTS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ TEMPS NOW INTO THE 60S ALL
BUT FAR N AND NERN AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. W/ THE WARM
AIR HAVING JUST ARRIVED THIS AFTN...WILL BE A BIT OF A LAG BEFORE
RIVERS/STREAMS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED SNOW MELT. RIVER
GAGES CONT TO SHOW SLOW RISES BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NXT 6-12 HRS AND APPEARS WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER INTO THE MAIN
THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
REGION.
TO FURTHER EXTENUATE CONCERNS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABV
FREEZING TNGT THRU TUE ALLOWING FOR CONTD ACCELERATED SNOW MELT AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM NOW THRU
TUE WITH STILL RISING RIVER LEVELS. THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING
WILL THEN PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE RIVER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES. FINALLY...THE
RAPIDLY MELTING SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-
015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BEGIN COLD/WINTRY AS SHORTWAVE
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BTWN DEPARTING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID APR AND WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY
MODERATE AS DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR LIFT TO
GREENLAND...AND PACIFIC AIR MAKES INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND SRN CANADA. HEADING DOWN THE ROAD...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE AROUND NORMAL...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BLO NORMAL DURING THE TEMP SWINGS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM GEM ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS THAT THE PATTERN
MAY BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WHICH WILL MEAN
RAINFALL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EVENTS. HOPEFULLY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE AVOIDED AS THE SNOWMELT SEASON RESUMES.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT...A HVY/WET SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS...MODELS THAT HAD MAX QPF AXIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S AND E. RESULT IS IMPROVING
MODEL AGREEMENT NOW ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SET UP. IT
APPEARS MAX QPF AXIS SHOULD RUN ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE HURON MTNS. THE NAM IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NW OF
THIS AXIS WHILE THE GEM REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC ARE DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
LAKES...BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER FROM
ERN MN E AND NE NTO UPPER MI BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO EASTWARD WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF BRIEF UPPER JET COUPLING
WITH LEFT EXIT OF JET SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOTED WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4G/KG AVBL AROUND
700-750MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH NEGATIVE
EPV/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOTED OVERTOP THE FGEN. FINALLY...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ADVECTING INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE
PCPN AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER BANDING OF
SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MDT/HVY PCPN AREA OR EVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW AT
TIMES...CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR SPRINGTIME HVY SNOW EVENTS.
ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL HINGE ON WHERE THESE
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SET UP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...LOCATIONS W OF KIMT/KMQT LINE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT...PROBABLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADVY ISSUED FOR NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES E MAY IN
FACT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. FINALLY...
EVEN THE FAR E COUNTIES OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO AN ADVY IF THE E TREND HOLDS UP IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS.
PCPN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY THU AND WILL LIKELY END. SFC HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THU NIGHT...AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER EXPANDING OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR
OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI
UNDER MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD EVEN DEVELOP. FRI HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S N WITH A CHILLY WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY
AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC IN LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW...THOUGH AGREEMENT IS
IMPROVING WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS. GEM IS STRONGER WITH WAVE AND
IS HEAVIER WITH THE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECWMF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM NOW. SOME -RA POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
W SAT AFTN...THEN SPREAD E SAT NIGHT/SUN. WITH WETTER TRENDS
NOTED...WILL TRENDING POPS UP TO CHC.
MON/TUE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TROF DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS WHILE TROF SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE/HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS
OF HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY VERIFIES BETTER. RESULT IS A COOLER
THAN GFS SCENARIO...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS. IF ANY
MINOR WAVES TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE ERN TROF...THERE MAY
BE SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN MON OR TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE U.P. WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING DIURNAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
THE KSAW TAF SITE HAVE CLEARED OUT AS OF 00Z/15. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IWD WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE THE SNOWFALL AROUND 14Z...THEN
THE SNOW WILL SPREAD TO CMX AND KSAW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. HAVE TRENDED THE VISIBILITY LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HEAVIER SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO EACH OF
THE TAF SITES. IWD WAS KEPT A BIT LOWER THAN THE OTHER TAF SITES AS
THE HEAVIER SNOW WOULD APPROACH THAT AREA FIRST.
ADDITIONALLY...CEILING HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11
AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT /10
AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING A MODERATING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
SENT AN UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL THINGS PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WHICH HAS
NOW PROGRESSED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER. GRAND RAPIDS DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES IN AN HOUR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECTING THE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A SLOW
FALL THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS. BY
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TOWARD
LUDINGTON TO THE UPPER 30S AT JACKSON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ORD EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS NE TO SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z AND FURTHER
NE INTO ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS BRISK NW FLOW CAA OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER NORTH/CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH AROUND 40 TO NEAR 45 MPH ALONG I-94 AND ESPECIALLY
IN OUR FAR SE FCST AREA TOWARD JXN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IN
ADDITION TO A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. OVERALL THOUGH FELT A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED
TODAY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL NOT SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH.
PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TODAY AS THE CAA
OCCURS. VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT WE DO EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA RANGING FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AND IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COLD WX TUESDAY
NIGHT. FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER
TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY SO AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN COULD MIX WITH
WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT CONDITIONS WERE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A DEEP TROUGH IS APPROACHING AND WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING. SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE PERIOD OF
SNOW LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND 01Z THROUGH 09Z OR SO. A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY FALL AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES TUESDAY BUT
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS WHERE SMALLER
CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE COME OUT OF THERE BANKS. ON TOP OF THAT
THE 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVERS FLOODING. EVART IS
FORECAST TO GO TO NEAR RECORD FLOODING AT 15.0 FT. THE BULK OF THE
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ACROSS THE PERE MARQUETTE...WHITE...
MUSKEGON... PINE AND CHIPPEWA RIVER BASINS. THE ONLY RIVER WARNING
IN THE GRAND RIVER BASIN IS THE ROGUE AT ROCKFORD. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THIS RIVER BASIN SAW HEAVIER RAINS THAT WILL ROUTE
DOWNSTREAM IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
109 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. A POTENT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH COMMA
RADAR SIGNATURE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SW WI. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 140-150 KNOT 300 MB
JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...STRONG QVECTOR CONV AND 700-500 MB FGEN
SUPPORTED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM N CNTRL WI THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI. RADAR INDICATED THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALIGNED WITH THE MAX
FGEN FROM NEAR IMT TO SE MARQUETTE COUNTY. TWO TO THREE INCHES HAD
FALLEN IN MANY LOCATIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z WITH ONE INCH TO THE
SE AT ISQ. GIVEN THE WET HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...SLR VALUES WERE
LOW...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10/1.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SNOW TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AROUND 15Z. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WOULD BRING TOTALS INTO THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE
STRONG UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BOOST SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW...THE SNOW WAS WET ENOUGH SO THAT VSBYS WERE MAINLY ABOVE
1/2SM. SOME LOCALIZED LOWER VSBY WOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE. AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH AS 850 MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -16C AND SOME LIMITED OPEN WATER PROVIDES
ENOUGH HEAT/MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE A DUSTING OVER THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE 5F TO 15F RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. QUITE CHILLY
WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -20C OVER LK SUPERIOR.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE IN THE MEAN TROUGH INCREASES DEPTH OF QUALITY
OF MOISTURE AND ALSO STEEPENS H9-H7 LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY. LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES MAY TRANSITION TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COVERAGE EXTENDING INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER AND LK MICHIGAN SHORE.
POPS LOW CHANCE AT BEST THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. NORMAL HIGHS ARE INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTH. WAVE MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT
FAR WEST CWA WITH LGT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MAY DIP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK
IN LATER DURING THE NIGHT.
WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LARGER FOCUS ONCE
WE GET PAST SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. WILL
TWO CAMPS STILL PRESENT IN THE MODELS. NAM/GFS BRING SHORTWAVE AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY QUICKER...AND HAVE MORE QPF. BOTH CAMPS OF MODELS GENERATE QPF
INTO WESTERN CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTED BY LARGER SCALE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BTWN JETS EMERGING FM THE PLAINS AND CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR REGION. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND UKMET ARE SLOWER AND NOT AS
HEAVY WITH QPF OVER UPR MICHIGAN...KEEPING FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP
OVER CNTRL MN INTO WCNTRL WI ALONG TRACK OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUSH POPS TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WESTERN AND
PROBABLY CENTRAL CWA WILL SEE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH BULK OF SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3G/KG WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING AREA OF
MID-LEVEL FGEN...FAIRLY STRONG CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT WE ARE
STILL...THAT COULD RESULT IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LIKELY THE
WEST CWA. HPC HEAVY SNOW GRAPHICS SHOW MUCH OF FAVORED AREA WITH
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SEEING 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOW PROBABILITY
OF SEEING 8 INCHES. BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES AND
H85 TEMPS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND COULD CHANGE TO RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SCNTRL AND EAST CWA. RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY FOR THOSE AREAS WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW DIMINISHES
ELSEWHERE. NO WATCH ATTM...AS IT WOULD BE LATER 5TH PERIOD AND STILL
NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS ONGOING SNOW SYSTEM TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN EHWO/HWOMQT.
LATER THURSDAY AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE FORECAST IS AT BEST
MUDDLED...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR SURE. GFS
MORE OR LESS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN
STREAM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE PHASING WITH NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULT IS WRAPPED UP SFC LOW WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER UPR MICHIGAN. GEM-NH SUPPORTS IDEA
SOMEWHAT THOUGH IT IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG. ECMWF WAS TRENDING
NORTH AND WEST WITH THAT SYSTEM...BUT WITH LATEST RUN NOW HAS WENT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST...KEEPING MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN DRY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF IS NOT PHASING THE SOUTHERN WAVE NEAR AS MUCH AS GFS ATTEMPTS
TO SHOW. CONSENSUS POPS...CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE...WILL BE UTILIZED
FOR NOW. WHATEVER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD BE EXITING TO START THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS SHOWN BY GFS. NOT SO INDICATES THE ECMWF...WITH A QUICK
PUSH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC TROUGH/RAIN SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY. LATEST RUN BACKED OFF SOME...BUT JUST SHOWS THE HIGH
VARIABILITY THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THAT FORECAST TIME FRAME. ONE
PRETTY SURE THING IS IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND /TEMPS TRYING TO
RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE/ DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND AFTER WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A CHILLY MID APRIL WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
AT SAW...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMRPROVE TO MVFR BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...DAYTIME HEATING AND
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/WINDS ARRIVE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
IWD/CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AROUND CAUSING MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NORTH GALES 35-40 KNOTS FOR TODAY...MAINLY EAST HALF...AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER MAINLY WESTERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 20 KTS REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
REPORTS OF ICE JAMS IN DELTA COUNTY SUNDAY ON ESCANABA RIVER AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT WAS ISSUED SUNDAY
EVENING AND THIS IS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION OCCURS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW TODAY. OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. FEASIBLE THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEK
MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN SOME AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES
OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-
013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245-264-
265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING A MODERATING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
SENT AN UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL THINGS PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WHICH HAS
NOW PROGRESSED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER. GRAND RAPIDS DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES IN AN HOUR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECTING THE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A SLOW
FALL THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS. BY
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TOWARD
LUDINGTON TO THE UPPER 30S AT JACKSON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ORD EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS NE TO SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z AND FURTHER
NE INTO ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS BRISK NW FLOW CAA OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER NORTH/CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH AROUND 40 TO NEAR 45 MPH ALONG I-94 AND ESPECIALLY
IN OUR FAR SE FCST AREA TOWARD JXN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IN
ADDITION TO A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. OVERALL THOUGH FELT A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED
TODAY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL NOT SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH.
PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TODAY AS THE CAA
OCCURS. VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT WE DO EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA RANGING FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AND IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COLD WX TUESDAY
NIGHT. FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER
TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY SO AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN COULD MIX WITH
WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT CONDITIONS WERE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR AVIATORS. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY KGRR AND KMKG WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL ESPECIALLY WEST OF KLAN AND
KJXN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VALUES OVER 30 KTS EXPECTED. A SHARP WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COLDER AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. ICING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS WHERE SMALLER
CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE COME OUT OF THERE BANKS. ON TOP OF THAT
THE 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVERS FLOODING. EVART IS
FORECAST TO GO TO NEAR RECORD FLOODING AT 15.0 FT. THE BULK OF THE
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ACROSS THE PERE MARQUETTE...WHITE...
MUSKEGON... PINE AND CHIPPEWA RIVER BASINS. THE ONLY RIVER WARNING
IN THE GRAND RIVER BASIN IS THE ROGUE AT ROCKFORD. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THIS RIVER BASIN SAW HEAVIER RAINS THAT WILL ROUTE
DOWNSTREAM IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. A POTENT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH COMMA
RADAR SIGNATURE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SW WI. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 140-150 KNOT 300 MB
JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...STRONG QVECTOR CONV AND 700-500 MB FGEN
SUPPORTED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM N CNTRL WI THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI. RADAR INDICATED THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALIGNED WITH THE MAX
FGEN FROM NEAR IMT TO SE MARQUETTE COUNTY. TWO TO THREE INCHES HAD
FALLEN IN MANY LOCATIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z WITH ONE INCH TO THE
SE AT ISQ. GIVEN THE WET HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...SLR VALUES WERE
LOW...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10/1.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SNOW TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AROUND 15Z. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WOULD BRING TOTALS INTO THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE
STRONG UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BOOST SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW...THE SNOW WAS WET ENOUGH SO THAT VSBYS WERE MAINLY ABOVE
1/2SM. SOME LOCALIZED LOWER VSBY WOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE. AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH AS 850 MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -16C AND SOME LIMITED OPEN WATER PROVIDES
ENOUGH HEAT/MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE A DUSTING OVER THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE 5F TO 15F RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. QUITE CHILLY
WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -20C OVER LK SUPERIOR.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE IN THE MEAN TROUGH INCREASES DEPTH OF QUALITY
OF MOISTURE AND ALSO STEEPENS H9-H7 LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY. LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES MAY TRANSITION TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COVERAGE EXTENDING INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER AND LK MICHIGAN SHORE.
POPS LOW CHANCE AT BEST THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. NORMAL HIGHS ARE INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTH. WAVE MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT
FAR WEST CWA WITH LGT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MAY DIP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK
IN LATER DURING THE NIGHT.
WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LARGER FOCUS ONCE
WE GET PAST SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. WILL
TWO CAMPS STILL PRESENT IN THE MODELS. NAM/GFS BRING SHORTWAVE AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY QUICKER...AND HAVE MORE QPF. BOTH CAMPS OF MODELS GENERATE QPF
INTO WESTERN CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTED BY LARGER SCALE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BTWN JETS EMERGING FM THE PLAINS AND CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR REGION. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND UKMET ARE SLOWER AND NOT AS
HEAVY WITH QPF OVER UPR MICHIGAN...KEEPING FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP
OVER CNTRL MN INTO WCNTRL WI ALONG TRACK OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUSH POPS TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WESTERN AND
PROBABLY CENTRAL CWA WILL SEE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH BULK OF SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3G/KG WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING AREA OF
MID-LEVEL FGEN...FAIRLY STRONG CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT WE ARE
STILL...THAT COULD RESULT IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LIKELY THE
WEST CWA. HPC HEAVY SNOW GRAPHICS SHOW MUCH OF FAVORED AREA WITH
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SEEING 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOW PROBABILITY
OF SEEING 8 INCHES. BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES AND
H85 TEMPS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND COULD CHANGE TO RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SCNTRL AND EAST CWA. RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY FOR THOSE AREAS WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW DIMINISHES
ELSEWHERE. NO WATCH ATTM...AS IT WOULD BE LATER 5TH PERIOD AND STILL
NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS ONGOING SNOW SYSTEM TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN EHWO/HWOMQT.
LATER THURSDAY AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE FORECAST IS AT BEST
MUDDLED...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR SURE. GFS
MORE OR LESS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN
STREAM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE PHASING WITH NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULT IS WRAPPED UP SFC LOW WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER UPR MICHIGAN. GEM-NH SUPPORTS IDEA
SOMEWHAT THOUGH IT IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG. ECMWF WAS TRENDING
NORTH AND WEST WITH THAT SYSTEM...BUT WITH LATEST RUN NOW HAS WENT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST...KEEPING MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN DRY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF IS NOT PHASING THE SOUTHERN WAVE NEAR AS MUCH AS GFS ATTEMPTS
TO SHOW. CONSENSUS POPS...CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE...WILL BE UTILIZED
FOR NOW. WHATEVER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD BE EXITING TO START THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS SHOWN BY GFS. NOT SO INDICATES THE ECMWF...WITH A QUICK
PUSH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC TROUGH/RAIN SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY. LATEST RUN BACKED OFF SOME...BUT JUST SHOWS THE HIGH
VARIABILITY THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THAT FORECAST TIME FRAME. ONE
PRETTY SURE THING IS IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND /TEMPS TRYING TO
RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE/ DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND AFTER WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A CHILLY MID APRIL WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
SAW...A LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NRN LOWER MI THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
MODERATE SNOW GOING AT SAW THROUGH MID MORNING. STRONG NRLY UPSLOPE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE PRODUCING BLOWING DRIFTING SNOW.
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMRPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AS THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS ARRIVE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
IWD/CMX...SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO
THE EAST. BUT WITH A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE N WIND AT IWD...MVFR
CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THAT LOCATION. BEST CHC FOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING
MIGHT LIFT THE CLOUD BASE INTO THE VFR RANGE. BY LATE THIS
EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NORTH GALES 35-40 KNOTS FOR TODAY...MAINLY EAST HALF...AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER MAINLY WESTERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 20 KTS REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
REPORTS OF ICE JAMS IN DELTA COUNTY SUNDAY ON ESCANABA RIVER AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT WAS ISSUED SUNDAY
EVENING AND THIS IS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION OCCURS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW TODAY. OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. FEASIBLE THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEK
MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN SOME AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES
OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ010-
011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-
013-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245-264-
265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. A POTENT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH COMMA
RADAR SIGNATURE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SW WI. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 140-150 KNOT 300 MB
JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...STRONG QVECTOR CONV AND 700-500 MB FGEN
SUPPORTED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM N CNTRL WI THROUGH CNTRL UPPER
MI. RADAR INDICATED THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ALIGNED WITH THE MAX
FGEN FROM NEAR IMT TO SE MARQUETTE COUNTY. TWO TO THREE INCHES HAD
FALLEN IN MANY LOCATIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z WITH ONE INCH TO THE
SE AT ISQ. GIVEN THE WET HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW...SLR VALUES WERE
LOW...GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10/1.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE SNOW TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AROUND 15Z. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WOULD BRING TOTALS INTO THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE
STRONG UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BOOST SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARD
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW...THE SNOW WAS WET ENOUGH SO THAT VSBYS WERE MAINLY ABOVE
1/2SM. SOME LOCALIZED LOWER VSBY WOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE. AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH AS 850 MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -16C AND SOME LIMITED OPEN WATER PROVIDES
ENOUGH HEAT/MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE A DUSTING OVER THE NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE 5F TO 15F RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. QUITE CHILLY
WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -20C OVER LK SUPERIOR.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE IN THE MEAN TROUGH INCREASES DEPTH OF QUALITY
OF MOISTURE AND ALSO STEEPENS H9-H7 LAPSE RATES ON TUESDAY. LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES MAY TRANSITION TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COVERAGE EXTENDING INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER AND LK MICHIGAN SHORE.
POPS LOW CHANCE AT BEST THOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COOL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. NORMAL HIGHS ARE INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTH. WAVE MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES
TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR OUT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT
FAR WEST CWA WITH LGT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS MAY DIP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS MOVE BACK
IN LATER DURING THE NIGHT.
WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME LARGER FOCUS ONCE
WE GET PAST SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. WILL
TWO CAMPS STILL PRESENT IN THE MODELS. NAM/GFS BRING SHORTWAVE AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY QUICKER...AND HAVE MORE QPF. BOTH CAMPS OF MODELS GENERATE QPF
INTO WESTERN CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTED BY LARGER SCALE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BTWN JETS EMERGING FM THE PLAINS AND CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR REGION. ECMWF AND GEM-NH AND UKMET ARE SLOWER AND NOT AS
HEAVY WITH QPF OVER UPR MICHIGAN...KEEPING FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIP
OVER CNTRL MN INTO WCNTRL WI ALONG TRACK OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAVE
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE
MODEL DIFFERENCES...ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PUSH POPS TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WESTERN AND
PROBABLY CENTRAL CWA WILL SEE MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH BULK OF SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3G/KG WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER 12 HOUR PERIOD. MODELS SHOWING AREA OF
MID-LEVEL FGEN...FAIRLY STRONG CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT WE ARE
STILL...THAT COULD RESULT IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LIKELY THE
WEST CWA. HPC HEAVY SNOW GRAPHICS SHOW MUCH OF FAVORED AREA WITH
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SEEING 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOW PROBABILITY
OF SEEING 8 INCHES. BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES AND
H85 TEMPS...SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND COULD CHANGE TO RAIN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SCNTRL AND EAST CWA. RAIN/SNOW MIX CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY FOR THOSE AREAS WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW DIMINISHES
ELSEWHERE. NO WATCH ATTM...AS IT WOULD BE LATER 5TH PERIOD AND STILL
NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS ONGOING SNOW SYSTEM TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN EHWO/HWOMQT.
LATER THURSDAY AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE FORECAST IS AT BEST
MUDDLED...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR SURE. GFS
MORE OR LESS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN
STREAM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE PHASING WITH NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULT IS WRAPPED UP SFC LOW WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER UPR MICHIGAN. GEM-NH SUPPORTS IDEA
SOMEWHAT THOUGH IT IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG. ECMWF WAS TRENDING
NORTH AND WEST WITH THAT SYSTEM...BUT WITH LATEST RUN NOW HAS WENT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST...KEEPING MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN DRY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF IS NOT PHASING THE SOUTHERN WAVE NEAR AS MUCH AS GFS ATTEMPTS
TO SHOW. CONSENSUS POPS...CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE...WILL BE UTILIZED
FOR NOW. WHATEVER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD BE EXITING TO START THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS SHOWN BY GFS. NOT SO INDICATES THE ECMWF...WITH A QUICK
PUSH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SFC TROUGH/RAIN SHOWERS FOR
SUNDAY. LATEST RUN BACKED OFF SOME...BUT JUST SHOWS THE HIGH
VARIABILITY THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR THAT FORECAST TIME FRAME. ONE
PRETTY SURE THING IS IT LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND /TEMPS TRYING TO
RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE/ DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND AFTER WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A CHILLY MID APRIL WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
SAW...A LO PRES MOVING FM IOWA THRU NRN LWR MI MON MRNG WL BRING A
PERIOD OF SN TO SAW EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH AN INCRSG N UPSLOPE WIND
THAT WL GUST AS HI AS 30 KTS AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME BLSN AS WELL...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
HRS THRU 12Z. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOWLY
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/WINDS WL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AFT SUNRISE
ON MON.
IWD/CMX...SN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO PRES MOVING THRU THE LKS LATE
TNGT WL MISS THESE LOCATIONS TO THE E. BUT WITH A FVRBL...INCRSG
UPSLOPE N WIND AT IWD...MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THAT
LOCATION. BEST CHC FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT IWD WL BE MON
AFTN...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT LIFT THE CLD BASE INTO THE VFR
RANGE. SINCE THIS N WIND IS NOT AS FVRBL FOR CMX AND THE INCOMING
LLVL AIRMASS IS ON THE DRY SIDE...THIS SITE WL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
VFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NORTH GALES 35-40 KNOTS FOR TODAY...MAINLY EAST HALF...AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER MAINLY WESTERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 20 KTS REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
REPORTS OF ICE JAMS IN DELTA COUNTY SUNDAY ON ESCANABA RIVER AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT WAS ISSUED SUNDAY
EVENING AND THIS IS VALID THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION OCCURS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW TODAY. OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. FEASIBLE THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEK
MAY EXCEED AN INCH IN SOME AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES
OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ010-
011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ005-012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245-264-
265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING A MODERATING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ORD EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS NE TO SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z AND FURTHER
NE INTO ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS BRISK NW FLOW CAA OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER NORTH/CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH AROUND 40 TO NEAR 45 MPH ALONG I-94 AND ESPECIALLY
IN OUR FAR SE FCST AREA TOWARD JXN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IN
ADDITION TO A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. OVERALL THOUGH FELT A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED
TODAY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL NOT SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH.
PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TODAY AS THE CAA
OCCURS. VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT WE DO EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA RANGING FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AND IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COLD WX TUESDAY
NIGHT. FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER
TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY SO AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN COULD MIX WITH
WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT CONDITIONS WERE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR AVIATORS. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY KGRR AND KMKG WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL ESPECIALLY WEST OF KLAN AND
KJXN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VALUES OVER 30 KTS EXPECTED. A SHARP WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COLDER AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. ICING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
HAVE MAINTAINED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ORIGINAL AREA. THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WHICH HAS WORKED OUT WELL.
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN OR THE
NORTHERN THREE ROWS OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA FROM
MUSKEGON...NEWAYGO...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT COUNTIES NORTHWARD.
QUITE A FEW RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST BEING NEAR THE MASON/OCEANA
COUNTY LINE NORTH OF MONTAGUE AT 3.82 INCHES.
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 600 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI WHERE THEY DO NOT NEED ANY MORE
RAIN. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS THE
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING. NUMEROUS
RIVER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE WITH POTENTIALLY MORE TO
COME. SEVERAL SITES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MODERATE FLOOD
CATEGORY WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. SOME OF THE RAIN TONIGHT MAY
BE THE HEAVIEST OF THIS ENTIRE EVENT AS PARAMETERS LIKE PWAT (DEEP
MOISTURE) PEAK TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MIDDAY ON MONDAY MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>058-064.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
328 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Main concerns deal with the band of snow currently extending from
near Pittsfield to Rolla as well as the going freeze warning. The
band has been reducing visibilities to as low as 1/2 mile with
some reports of accumulation on grassy surfaces. It is being
caused by mid level frontogenesis ahead of the 500mb trough that
will move through the area tonight. The RAP and HRRR does show the
frotogenesis weakening as it moves acrosss the CWA, but do think
that it will likely maintain itself the next few hours before it
weakens by early evening. Have extrapolated the band through CWA
through early evening, with little or no accumulation of snow
expected given the warm low level and surface temperatures.
The precipitation and clouds will clear out quick as subsidence
moves in behind the passage of the upper trough. With cold air
advection and dry dewpoints, expect temperatures to drop quickly to
near MOS temperatures. Going freeze warning looks good and plan no
changes to it.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Have kept Tuesday into Thursday dry as the area will remain cut off
from any notable moisture from the Gulf and the active storm track
stays north of the area. While Tuesday night will not be as cold as
tonight, most areas will still be in the lower to mid 30s for
lows.
(Thursday Night-Next Monday)
The ECMWF and GFS are now similar with the amplitude and timing of
the mid level trough and attendant cold front that will move across
the area on Friday. Will continue with the chance of showers on
Thursday night and Friday before subsidence works in behind the
trough keeping Friday night and Saturday dry. Then confidence
begins to wane late in the weekend as they both develop QPF over the
area. The GFS is placing more emphasis on an northern stream upper
over the Upper Midwest while ECMWF is placing it`s emphasis on a
shortwave coming out of the southwest CONUS. Either way, will
continue the chance of showers we have going Saturday night into
Sunday night. Temperatures during the period look to be near or
slightly below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Area of SN continues to move ewd. Have made some slight changes to
the prev TAFs based on latest RADAR trends and mdl guidance.
Confidence is higher that precip will be all SN at COU/UIN early
this afternoon. With ample cloud cover across the region, believe
temps will remain cold enuf for all SN at SUS/CPS late this
afternoon. However, with some uncertainty and since main focus
shud be nw of sites, will leave precip as a RA/SN mix for now.
Beyond precip, cigs shud lift quickly and remain VFR thru the
remainder of the TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL: With clouds expected to remain in place,
precip this afternoon has a better chance of being SN. However,
with placement of precip wrt the terminal, precip may remain as a
very light RA or more likely DZ. Beyond precip this afternoon,
cigs shud lift quickly to VFR and remain VFR thru the remainder of
the TAF period.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 903 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Two areas of SHRA/TSRA of interest at the moment. The first area
moved thru southeast MO and into STL Metro earlier this evening
and has dropped up to 1.25" of rain in spots with many areas
receiving between 0.3 and 0.75" in the main area of effect. No
severe weather is anticipated here with the atmosphere worked over
well and not that unstable. Some elevated instability, though, has
produced imbedded thunder.
The other area is a squall line that had developed over western MO
and eastern KS this afternoon and has progressed steadily
eastward, but has thus far produced wind gusts up to 50mph. Severe
thunderstorm watch #75 continues for a reduced area in east-
central MO until midnight CDT, but anticipate this watch being
cancelled probably around 10-1030pm given current trends and
timing of progression of thunderstorm line.
All of this will exit STL metro during the early overnight and
late tonight in southwest IL. The next round of more stratiform
frontogenetical pcpn is not anticipated until mid-late Monday
morning in central MO, expanding elsewhere later on Monday. It is
with this area of pcpn, and behind an increasingly chilly airmass,
that some snow will be possible, but it remains doubtful on
ability to accumulate considering warm ground and surface temps
above freezing throughout. Nevertheless, the mere presence of
falling snow in mid-April rather unusual in these parts.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tonight-Monday Night)
Main question tonight will be severe weather chances. Large area of
stratiform rain currently over the CWA may suppress these chances as
latest SPC objective MUCAPE analysis is mostly below 500 j/kg except
across northern Missouri and west central Illinois. The latest runs
of the HRRR has been trending toward weaker storms these evening
because weaker instability. However, if the rain can mover out of
the area, there are very steep lapse rates over the Central Plains
that could help quickly destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the line
of the storms currently over eastern Kansas. Deep layer shear
between 00-03Z will be between 35-50kts which will be sufficient for
organized severe storms.
Otherwise, forecast did not require too much changes as I still
expect front to march southeast across the CWA tonight.
Thunderstorm threat will end with the front and change to a plain
cold rain. Have kept likely chances to for rain on Monday as the
ECMWF/GFS/NAM all mid-level frontogenesis moving across the region
during the day. Also added likely chances over the eastern counties
on Monday evening as ascent from the mid level trough will not clear
the CWA until overnight Monday night. Forecast soundings and
critical thicknesses still point to snow mixing with the rain from
northwest to southeast during the day on Monday. Do not have any
accumulating snow at the moment as the low atmosphere will be rather
warm during the day, as will the surface temperatures after this
unseasonably warm weekend.
With the much colder air moving into the area, temperatures will
fall below freezing over the entire CWA on Monday night. Many areas
will see temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tuesday-Sunday)
Upper trough will move east of the area by Tuesday bringing dry
weather for mid week. While Monday night looks like the coldest,
Tuesday night will likely still have temperatures around freezing
before lows become more seasonable later in the week.
While the ECMWF has trended deeper and consequently slower with the
trough that will move through the central CONUS late this week, it
is still not as deep as the GFS or the Canadian GEM. Will stick
with the more consistent ECMWF as the GFS is quicker to move the
front through the area on Thursday night than it was before. Will
keep Thursday dry with the front staying to the northwest most of
the day with a chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the
front moves across the area. By next weekend, winds turn out of the
southwest quickly behind a retreating high allowing gulf moisture to
move north from the Gulf quickly into the area.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Cold front extending from a surface low over northwestern IL
southwest through UIN and COU will move sewd through the St Louis
metro area just after 06z Monday. The more significant showers and
storms will shift east of the taf sites by 06z Monday, but there
may be lingering patchy light rain or isolated light showers til
around 08z Monday. Surface winds will veer around to a nwly
direction after fropa, and will be relatively strong and gusty late
tonight and Monday due to a tight surface pressure gradient. The
wind will gradually diminish Monday night as a surface ridge
approaches and the surface pressure gradient relaxes. Ceilings
will likely fall into the IFR catagory behind this front, down to
around 1000 ft or slightly lower late tonight and early Monday
morning. The cloud ceiling will gradually rise Monday afternoon,
becoming VFR Monday evening. There will be some light rain mainly
Monday afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves through the
area, possibly mixing with or changing to light snow in UIN and
COU as colder air continues to filter sewd into the area.
Specifics for KSTL: The cold front will move southeastward through
STL just after 06z Monday. The more significant showers and
storms will shift east of STL by 06z Monday, but there may be
lingering post frontal patchy light rain or isolated light showers
until around 08z Monday. The surface wind will veer around to a
nwly direction late tonight after fropa. The wind will remain
strong and gusty through Monday, then diminish Monday night. The
cloud ceiling will lower into the IFR catagory late tonight and
early Monday morning after fropa. The cloud ceiling will gradually
rise into the MVFR catagory Monday afternoon, VFR Monday evening,
then finally clearing out completely late Monday night. Periods
of light rain can be expected Monday afternoon, possibly changing
to a little light rain/snow mix before ending early Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE:
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
122 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN...PROBABLY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...THIS
AFTERNOON TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS SHOW THAT TREND...AND THESE MAY EVEN LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND 40 UP TO THE LOWER AND
POSSIBLY MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROF
SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WITH POTENT VORT MAX JUST EAST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION. UPSTREAM THEN...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED
OVER THE WRN CONUS/WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING DEEP INTO THE SRN PLAINS STATES. OTHERWISE AREA OF -SN HAS
FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF ERN NEB AND INTO SWRN IA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF THOUGH BY MID MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MEAN TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
THRU THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN COMING WED/WED NIGHT
WHEN NEXT PAC NW SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH. DEEP TROF ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TEMP
SWING OVER THE REGIONS OVER THE LAST 24HRS...AND AT THIS POINT COLD
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO HANG IN TIGHT AT LEAST THRU TONIGHT. COLD THEN
TODAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. FURTHERMORE...
GUSTY NW WINDS/COLD WIND CHILL INDICES WILL ENSURE LOUSY CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY. AS FOR HIGHS TUE/WED...MODERATE REBOUND ADVERTISED
BUT STILL JUST BELOW NORM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
WED AFTN/NIGHT NEXT ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ADVERTISING DEEP LYR QG FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE AT TIME
OF FROPA. PCPN TYPE INITIALLY RA...THEN POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING WHEN BRUNT OF CAA ARRIVES. FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THRU FRIDAY AS BEST DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS THE
REGION. SAT NIGHT/SUN...ECM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER SRN
NEB/ERN KS IN RELATION TO 295K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEF. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS THIS COVERED WITH SMALL POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...
WARMING TREND ON TAP THRU THE EXTENDED PD WITH LOW 70S ARRIVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE INTO NCNTRL NEBR AT 18Z WILL SPREAD
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE FL040. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS COULD PRECEDE DISTURBANCE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WINDS DECREASE
AGAIN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB ARE STEEP AND MOIST BUT THE 850MB-SFC LAYER IS VERY DRY
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WHILE TEMPERATURE RISE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTN...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH BE
CLOSE TO THE GROUND AND THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW FOR THE PTYPE. SO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
NO MEASURABLE QPF WAS INDICATED IN THE RAP SOLN BUT THE HRRR
ACTUALLY SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SEVERAL STREAKS OF 0.01
QPF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H700MB AROUND -18C AT KVTN
WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID APRIL.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DRAW ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
WRN HALF DEVELOPS SOUTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
WARM AIR QUICKLY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS RISING TO 8C TO 12C BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE RAISED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...NEARING 13C.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS THROUGH QUICKLY AS AN
OPEN WAVE...WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHEST POPS /NEAR 40 PERCENT/
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OR WET SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS
POINT. CHILLY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY...AS MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
ADVERTISING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
TROUGH DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE PLAINS...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...AS THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUST STARTING TO LATCH ONTO THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THEN SOME THUNDER
MENTION WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONS...LITTLE SNOW
IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE SHOWERS...SO VISIBILITY REMAINS
VFR. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO GET CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME WITH LOWERED
VISIBILITIES. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LOWERED CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECASTS AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACT OCCURRING AT
THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND PICK
UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING
DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN...PROBABLY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...THIS
AFTERNOON TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS SHOW THAT TREND...AND THESE MAY EVEN LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND 40 UP TO THE LOWER AND
POSSIBLY MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING A ANOMALOUS LONGWAVE TROF
SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WITH POTENT VORT MAX JUST EAST OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION. UPSTREAM THEN...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS SITUATED
OVER THE WRN CONUS/WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN IL WITH LEADING EDGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHING DEEP INTO THE SRN PLAINS STATES. OTHERWISE AREA OF -SN HAS
FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF ERN NEB AND INTO SWRN IA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF THOUGH BY MID MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MEAN TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
THRU THE NEAR TERM PDS WITH NEXT SHOT FOR PCPN COMING WED/WED NIGHT
WHEN NEXT PAC NW SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. UNTIL
THEN...TEMPS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH. DEEP TROF ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TEMP
SWING OVER THE REGIONS OVER THE LAST 24HRS...AND AT THIS POINT COLD
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO HANG IN TIGHT AT LEAST THRU TONIGHT. COLD THEN
TODAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. FURTHERMORE...
GUSTY NW WINDS/COLD WIND CHILL INDICES WILL ENSURE LOUSY CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY. AS FOR HIGHS TUE/WED...MODERATE REBOUND ADVERTISED
BUT STILL JUST BELOW NORM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
WED AFTN/NIGHT NEXT ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ADVERTISING DEEP LYR QG FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE AT TIME
OF FROPA. PCPN TYPE INITIALLY RA...THEN POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING WHEN BRUNT OF CAA ARRIVES. FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THRU FRIDAY AS BEST DYNAMIC FORCING EXITS THE
REGION. SAT NIGHT/SUN...ECM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OVER SRN
NEB/ERN KS IN RELATION TO 295K UPGLIDE/LOW COND PRES DEF. GOING
FCST ALREADY HAS THIS COVERED WITH SMALL POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...
WARMING TREND ON TAP THRU THE EXTENDED PD WITH LOW 70S ARRIVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT VRBL
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
IN THE 4000 TO 8000 FOOT LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
RAIN (PROBABLY MOSTLY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES) THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
AT KOFK AND KLNK. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DISIPATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB ARE STEEP AND MOIST BUT THE 850MB-SFC LAYER IS VERY DRY
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WHILE TEMPERATURE RISE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTN...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH BE
CLOSE TO THE GROUND AND THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW FOR THE PTYPE. SO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
NO MEASURABLE QPF WAS INDICATED IN THE RAP SOLN BUT THE HRRR
ACTUALLY SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SEVERAL STREAKS OF 0.01
QPF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H700MB AROUND -18C AT KVTN
WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID APRIL.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DRAW ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
WRN HALF DEVELOPS SOUTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
WARM AIR QUICKLY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS RISING TO 8C TO 12C BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE RAISED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...NEARING 13C.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS THROUGH QUICKLY AS AN
OPEN WAVE...WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHEST POPS /NEAR 40 PERCENT/
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OR WET SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS
POINT. CHILLY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY...AS MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
ADVERTISING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
TROUGH DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE PLAINS...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...AS THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUST STARTING TO LATCH ONTO THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THEN SOME THUNDER
MENTION WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD/ND THIS AM MOVES THROUGH NCNTL NEB THIS
AFTN SPARKING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHSN/MVFR CONDITIONS.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z WITH VFR ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB ARE STEEP AND MOIST BUT THE 850MB-SFC LAYER IS VERY DRY
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WHILE TEMPERATURE RISE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTN...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH BE
CLOSE TO THE GROUND AND THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW FOR THE PTYPE. SO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
NO MEASURABLE QPF WAS INDICATED IN THE RAP SOLN BUT THE HRRR
ACTUALLY SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SEVERAL STREAKS OF 0.01
QPF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H700MB AROUND -18C AT KVTN
WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID APRIL.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DRAW ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
WRN HALF DEVELOPS SOUTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
WARM AIR QUICKLY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS RISING TO 8C TO 12C BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE RAISED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...NEARING 13C.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS THROUGH QUICKLY AS AN
OPEN WAVE...WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHEST POPS /NEAR 40 PERCENT/
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OR WET SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS
POINT. CHILLY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY...AS MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
ADVERTISING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
TROUGH DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE PLAINS...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...AS THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUST STARTING TO LATCH ONTO THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THEN SOME THUNDER
MENTION WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WHERE CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
9000 TO 12000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL SHOULD SET IN OVERNIGHT. FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...LEADING TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 6000 FT AGL LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1129 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM CUSTER...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES. SNOW HAS ENDED IN
THESE AREAS...HOWEVER SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. RADAR RETURNS FROM COLORADO AND FAR SERN
WYOMING...INDICATE A NICE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN NERN
COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TRAILING DISTURBANCE OVER FAR SERN
UT. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...ALLOW THIS SNOW TO DRIFT INTO
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN
SHIFTING IT SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW WHICH MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH A GOOD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAD BEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DOWN OVER UTAH AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA HAD AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN KANSAS...WITH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND AS THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE DROPPED BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK BY EARLY TO MID MORNING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION LOCALLY
FELL AS SNOW. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAD BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE 700MB LOW TRACKED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA. THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
HAS SHIFTED EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH ALLOWED THE PRECIPITATION
TO ALSO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND BY MID AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY
ENDED. THERE WERE SEVERAL STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW THAT
DEVELOPED...WHICH DROPPED AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
AT 20Z...MODERATE SNOWFALL DID CONTINUE FROM CURTIS TO BROKEN BOW TO
ALMERIA...WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW STILL IN AREAS TO THE WEST. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW HAS ENDED AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS
HAVE GENERALLY ENDED. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE ROADWAYS
MAY REMAIN SLICK...BUT ANY FOLLOWING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT
MAKE THINGS WORSE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL START TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. WINDS HAVE LARGELY BEEN
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /SUSTAINED OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF
45 MPH/ IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. COULD STILL GET A FEW HIGHER
READINGS YET THIS AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THIS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED SO
NO NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES.
THE SNOW OCCURRING AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z. AFTER 00Z...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER UTAH KICKS EAST OVERNIGHT.
THAT SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS COLORADO AND
KANSAS. DID TREND THE FORECAST DRIER FOR THE EVENING...BUT KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN CASE OF A SLIGHT SHIFT.
COLDER AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF
CANADA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST ENHANCE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER AIR BY KEEPING IT HERE RATHER THAN
LETTING IT DRIFT EAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND WITH THE NEW SNOW...MAY GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO HELP COOL THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE DROPPED
SLIGHTLY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S LIKELY. THEN FOR
MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE COLDER AIRMASS OUT OF THE
AREA...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS MID APRIL...THINK THE SNOW MAY HAVE A
SLIGHT INFLUENCE SO DID DROP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. NOW
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BE SUB FREEZING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AS LOW DEWPOINTS DICTATE
STRONG COOLING OVERNIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO MONTANA AND
IDAHO...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVERY SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE LOWER 60S
AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS
REGION. LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE MID 30S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE REMAINING FA BY 18Z. THE NAM MODEL IS QUITE A BIT
WARMER WITH H85 TEMPS 4C TO 6C. WILL GO BETWEEN THE COLDER GFS OF 0C
TO -6C. WILL GO NEARER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST TO
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST. ALSO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SYSTEM LOOKING TO MATURE
ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND SERN NEBR. PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN
OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
THURSDAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 40S.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DAILY WARMING TREND. AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY WITH MUCH MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE
50S FRIDAY...60S SATURDAY...THEN NEAR 70 SUNDAY. DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL WHERE CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
9000 TO 12000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL SHOULD SET IN OVERNIGHT. FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...LEADING TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 6000 FT AGL LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARD SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1118 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
AS OF LATE EVENING. BACK EDGE OF SNOW WAS WORKING THROUGH WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY AS OF 11 PM...AND SNOW HAD ENDED AT THE LINCOLN
AIRPORT. BANDED STRUCTURE OF RADAR RETURNS SUGGESTS SOME POCKETS
OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE WHOLE AREA SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SPOTTER REPORTS WITHIN THE
BANDS INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND MOSTLY ON
GRASSY AREAS. BUT WEBCAMS SHOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS UNDER
HEAVIEST BANDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SLUSHY DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR A
TIME BEFORE MELTING OCCURS. CURRENT TRENDS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN
ON TRACK WITH AREAS EAST OF A MISSOURI VALLEY TO OMAHA AND
LINCOLN LINE EXPERIENCING A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AN
OCCASIONAL BURST OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT ALL THE SNOW TO BE EAST
OF SOUTHWEST IOWA BY ABOUT 4 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AND ITS VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS SLOW ADVANCE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z
WITH SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEST OF A COLUMBUS
TO SIOUX CITY LINE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST
MAIN ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BAND WILL GENERALLY SETUP IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH ON THE SOUTH AND YANKTON TO NELIGH
ON THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA. SNOW THEN SPREADS EAST
AND ENDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. EXPECT SNOW TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY
EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE 00Z
TIME FRAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTED SNOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WILL ALSO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTEND THROUGH 03Z.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING
TO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COOL AND WET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. DAY TO DAY
WARMING FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP CIGS TO NEAR FL010 AND VSBYS BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
IN THE KLNK AND KOMA THROUGH THE 04Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. THAT
PRECIPITATION AND CIGS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA NEAR AND
AFTER 06Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 08Z. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
35KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THEN DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO
25KT RANGE. EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
702 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD... THE MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE PLAIN WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
GET A LINE OF SHOWERS GOING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE PICKED UP BUT
SOME IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED NORTH OF PENN YAN. TEMPS
DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH BUT THEN THIS
SHOULD LEVEL OUT. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS
LINE TO THE WEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS
THE SUNSETS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PAST MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET. DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
IS STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BACK TO THE WEST
AROUND DTW. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS HARDLY INDICATING ANY CAPE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM... BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 55 TO 60... MORE
SEASONABLE FOR JUNE THAN MID-APRIL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RIGHT-REAR QUAD
UPPER DYNAMICS AND A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER RIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
MIDDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY... THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FINGER LAKES... AROUND NOON ALONG THE
I-81 CORRIDOR... AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ANY BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS DURING A SHORT PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT... BUT A WATCH MAY NEED CONSIDERATION
ONCE TIMING AN LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAIN BANDS BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER
THE FINGER LAKES BY LATE MORNING... AND ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STEADIER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -15 DEGREES C. DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR EXPECT THAT THIS SCEANRIO WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER CENTRAL NY TUESDAY EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WX IN THE MED RNG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN ON
WED. AFTER SOME MRNG LAKE CLDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE CST. WE COULD SEE CLDS RETURN IN THE SELY FLOW LATER FRI
NGT INTO SAT. THIS WEEKEND`S FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HINGING ON
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM S/WV`S. JUST WENT WITH
SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL ON WED...A MODERATING TREND
AFTERWARDS AND WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH BKN-OVC MID DECK. SCT --SHRA ACRS
CNTRL NY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BUT NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD. LATER
TNGT...AREAS OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREAD INTO THE RGN IN THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME. WDSPRD IFR/MVFR TWDS DAYBREAK AND INTO TUE
AFTN. SHARP FNT WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SLEET LATE IN THE
PD AT SYR/ITH/ELM (BASED ON CRNT FNTL TIMING). IN ADDN...WE ARE
INDICATING POTNL FOR LLWS WITH FROPA BASED ON IMPRSV SHEAR
DISPLAYED IN THE MDL PROFILES. WINDS THIS AFTN SWLY 15-25...AND
SRLY TNGT 10-20 WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN BECMG NWLY 10-20 BEHIND
THE FNT AT WRN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...SCT MVFR IN -SHSN CNTRL NY.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ009-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD... THE MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS ARE INCRSNG ACRS THE FCST AREA UNDER WARM SWLY FLOW. AREA OF
-SHRA ACRS WRN NY AND PA WORKING NEWD BUT LOW LVL AIR MASS IS
PRETTY DRY. XPCT SCT --SHRA TO SPREAD INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
WRN FINGER LAKES BY LATE AFTN...SLOWLY SPREADING EWD. CRNT NEAR
TERM FCST REFLECTS THIS THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET. DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
IS STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BACK TO THE WEST
AROUND DTW. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS HARDLY INDICATING ANY CAPE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM... BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 55 TO 60... MORE
SEASONABLE FOR JUNE THAN MID-APRIL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RIGHT-REAR QUAD
UPPER DYNAMICS AND A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER RIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
MIDDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY... THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FINGER LAKES... AROUND NOON ALONG THE
I-81 CORRIDOR... AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ANY BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS DURING A SHORT PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT... BUT A WATCH MAY NEED CONSIDERATION
ONCE TIMING AN LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAIN BANDS BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER
THE FINGER LAKES BY LATE MORNING... AND ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STEADIER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -15 DEGREES C. DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR EXPECT THAT THIS SCEANRIO WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER CENTRAL NY TUESDAY EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WX IN THE MED RNG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN ON
WED. AFTER SOME MRNG LAKE CLDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE CST. WE COULD SEE CLDS RETURN IN THE SELY FLOW LATER FRI
NGT INTO SAT. THIS WEEKEND`S FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HINGING ON
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM S/WV`S. JUST WENT WITH
SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL ON WED...A MODERATING TREND
AFTERWARDS AND WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH BKN-OVC MID DECK. SCT --SHRA ACRS
CNTRL NY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BUT NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD. LATER
TNGT...AREAS OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREAD INTO THE RGN IN THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME. WDSPRD IFR/MVFR TWDS DAYBREAK AND INTO TUE
AFTN. SHARP FNT WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SLEET LATE IN THE
PD AT SYR/ITH/ELM (BASED ON CRNT FNTL TIMING). IN ADDN...WE ARE
INDICATING POTNL FOR LLWS WITH FROPA BASED ON IMPRSV SHEAR
DISPLAYED IN THE MDL PROFILES. WINDS THIS AFTN SWLY 15-25...AND
SRLY TNGT 10-20 WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN BECMG NWLY 10-20 BEHIND
THE FNT AT WRN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...SCT MVFR IN -SHSN CNTRL NY.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY,
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
AGAIN TODAY BUT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECLUDED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ009-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RHB
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD... THE MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS ARE INCRSNG ACRS THE FCST AREA UNDER WARM SWLY FLOW. AREA OF
-SHRA ACRS WRN NY AND PA WORKING NEWD BUT LOW LVL AIR MASS IS
PRETTY DRY. XPCT SCT --SHRA TO SPREAD INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
WRN FINGER LAKES BY LATE AFTN...SLOWLY SPREADING EWD. CRNT NEAR
TERM FCST REFLECTS THIS THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WTIH
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET. DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVNEING ARE
STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BACK TO THE WEST
AROUND DTW. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS HARDLY INDICATING ANY CAPE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM... BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 55 TO 60... MORE
SEASONABLE FOR JUNE THAN MID-APRIL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RIGHT-REAR QUAD
UPPER DYNAMICS AND A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER RIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
MIDDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY... THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FINGER LAKES... AROUND NOON ALONG THE
I-81 CORRIDOR... AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ANY BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS DURING A SHORT PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT... BUT A WATCH MAY NEED CONSIDERATION
ONCE TIMING AN LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAIN BANDS BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER
THE FINGER LAKES BY LATE MORNING... AND ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STEADIER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -15 DEGREES C. DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR EXPECT THAT THIS SCEANRIO WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER CENTRAL NY TUESDAY EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET WX IN THE MED RNG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN ON
WED. AFTER SOME MRNG LAKE CLDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE CST. WE COULD SEE CLDS RETURN IN THE SELY FLOW LATER FRI
NGT INTO SAT. THIS WEEKEND`S FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HINGING ON
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM S/WV`S. JUST WENT WITH
SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL ON WED...A MODERATING TREND
AFTERWARDS AND WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH BKN-OVC MID DECK. SCT --SHRA ACRS
CNTRL NY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG BUT NO RESTRICTIONS XPCTD. LATER
TNGT...AREAS OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREAD INTO THE RGN IN THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME. WDSPRD IFR/MVFR TWDS DAYBREAK AND INTO TUE
AFTN. SHARP FNT WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SLEET LATE IN THE
PD AT SYR/ITH/ELM (BASED ON CRNT FNTL TIMING). IN ADDN...WE ARE
INDICATING POTNL FOR LLWS WITH FROPA BASED ON IMPRSV SHEAR
DISPLAYED IN THE MDL PROFILES. WINDS THIS AFTN SWLY 15-25...AND
SRLY TNGT 10-20 WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN BECMG NWLY 10-20 BEHIND
THE FNT AT WRN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...SCT MVFR IN -SHSN CNTRL NY.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY,
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
AGAIN TODAY BUT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECLUDED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ009-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RHB
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
835 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE MILD AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW MDLS DVLP SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN
ALONG A WEAK PRE-FNTL SFC TROF BUT INSPECTION OF PROFILES SUGGESTS
--SHRA OUT OF A MID DECK WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MID LVL
INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THIS AFTN. 925 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEG COOLER AND WE`LL HAVE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLD CVR BUT WE`RE
STARTING OUT VERY MILD...SO NO CHGS THERE. PREV BLO...
630 AM UPDATE... 993MB SFC LOW HAS NOW MVD INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK THRU THE MIDWEST. AS
IT CROSSED CHICAGO, O-HARE DROPPED 16 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME
HAVE HAD TO DO SOME FINAGLING WITH TEMPS FOR TDA AS MOST OF CWA
WERE WITHIN 4-5 DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPS TDA. WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE AS MOST LOCALES SHUD EASILY PUSH INTO THE
U70S. LATEST HRRR NOW HAS WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO WRN ZONES BY 22Z
AND THIS WL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PREV DISCO BLO...
155 AM UPDATE...
SPRINGTIME STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SVR WX TO THE PLAINS YDA WL BE
HEADED NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WM FNT DRAPED ACRS SRN
ONTARIO AND NRN NY STATE EXTENDS FM SFC LOW LOCATED OVR THE QUAD
CITIES REGION. ASSOC H5 TROF IS SPINNING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG MS RVR.
ALL THIS MEANS WITH REGARD TO OUR WX IS A MILD SRLY FLOW CONTG TDA.
GOM IS CURRENTLY WIDE OPEN AND DRAWING IN WARM/MOIST AIR TO CNTRL
PART OF NATION WITH PW VALUES WELL ABV 1 INCH. AS TROF SLIDES EVER
CLOSER TO CWA THRU THE AFTN EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCRS TO OVR 1.00
INCHES. THIS HELPS TO INCRS DWPT VALUES INTO THE 50S AND PRECLUDE
FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TDA AS OPPOSED TO YDA.
IN ADDITION AN INCRS IN CLDS FM THE APPCHG SYSTEM WL SPREAD MOCLDY
SKIES TO WRN ZONES DRG THE AFTN HRS WITH A HIGH THIN CIRRUS EXPECTED
RMNDR OF AREA. THIS WL HELP TO TEMPER TEMP RISE TDA WITH MOST HIGHS
IN THE M70S.
WARM ADVECTION WL COMBINE WITH APPCHG UL FRCG AND LGT SHOWERS WL
START TO DVLP ACRS THE WEST BTWN 18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTN BFR SLIDING
EAST, PERHAPS GETTING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN CNY BY 00Z
TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE WITH PLACEMENT OF CDFNT AT 00Z TONIGHT BUT
DIFFER WITH REGARD TO QPF WITH GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN EURO AND
NAM. WUD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE IN CNTRL SXNS
OF CWA UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION BUT FEEL THE CRUX OF THE PCPN WL
BE FELT IN THE FINGER LKS REGION THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
POPS INCRS TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS FRCG FM FRONT MVS CLOSER TO
CWA. LKLY POPS EXPECTED BY 06Z, THEN INCRSG TO 100 POPS BY MRNG.
GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE SURGE (THETA-E RIDGE) AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
HV GONE WITH MORE SHOWERY MENTION THRU 09Z TONIGHT. H5 LOW WL BE
SITTING UP ACRS HUDSON BAY WITH L/WV TROF BCMG NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE
MRNG. 250MB SPEED MAX WL STRENGTHEN TO +120KTS BY DAYBREAK WITH CWA
IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION ARND 09Z, THUS WL GO WITH MORE OF A RAIN
SCENARIO AFT THIS TIME.
HV ADDED IN CHC FOR THUNDER DRG THE OVRNGT AS SI`S APPRCH ZERO,
MLCAPES ARND 100 J/KG AND K-INDICES > 30. 00Z MODELS AGREE THAT
CDFNT WL BE ENTERING INTO WRN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
TEMPS WL FALL THRU THE DAY TUE IN CNY AS CDFNT COMES BLASTING THRU.
MAY SEE A BRIEF RISE IN TEMPS ACRS SERN ZONES DRG THE MRNG BFR
HOLDING STEADY THEN FALLING STEADILY AFT 18Z. HV SIDED MORE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET WITH THE GFS AND EURO
AS NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW. EXPECT ALL RAIN DRG THE MRNG HRS AND
THEN SLOWLY MIXING WITH SLEET BY EARLY AFTN ACRS THE FINGER LKS,
THEN BCMG ALL SNOW AFT 21Z IN THE FINGER LKS. PCPN WL START TO MIX
WITH SLEET AND SNOW AFT 21Z ACRS THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN NY STATE WITH
RAIN EXPECTED THRU 00Z WED IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN CNTYS.
EXPECT ALL SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR SERN
ZONES EARLY AS THEY TRANSITION OVR. SNOWFALL AMNTS FM TIME OF
TRANSITION (LATE AFTN TUE) UNTIL PCPN EXITS STAGE RIGHT ARND 06Z WED
LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES.
WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO NR -14C WED MRNG, EXPECT OVRNGT
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. THIS IS UNDER STRONG NW WINDS AS WELL.
IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE, TEMPS MAY DROP EVEN LOWER. THIS WUD PUT
RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY FOR THIS DATE. KBGM`S RECORD LOW IS 24F,
KAVP IS 20F AND KSYR IS 23F.
UNDER FULL SUN WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN ON WED, MAX TEMPS WL QUICKLY
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. HIGH WL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WED NGT, ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS WITH NEXT WEEKEND/S STORM SYSTEM. BEFORE
THIS HOWEVER...DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA. IN TERMS OF NEXT
WEEKEND/S STORM SYSTEM...THE GFS TAKES A SFC LOW DIRECTLY OVER OUR
FCST REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY LOOSING STEAM AS ENERGY
TRANSFERS TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
UNDER THE LATTER SCENARIO...MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION IS SPARED OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE CANADIAN-CMC TOO
SHOWS TRANSFERRING ENERGY ALBEIT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. IF THIS WERE TO PANE OUT AS ADVERTISED...SOME SOME PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY WORK NORTH INTO OUR AREA. AS RESULT OF THIS THIRD
SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FCST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY SFC HIGH
PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH SOME MODIFICATION
ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE GATE THIS MORNING. MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FCST MODELS SHOW SOME SHWR ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
TO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST. MUCH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS PRECIP SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
CATEGORICAL DECREASES TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS AS
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN. MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR IFR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE ITH AND BGM...WITH MVFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY,
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
AGAIN TODAY BUT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECLUDED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
652 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE MILD AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
993MB SFC LOW HAS NOW MVD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THRU THE MIDWEST. AS IT CROSSED CHICAGO, O-HARE
DROPPED 16 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS
OUR AREA TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME HAVE HAD TO DO SOME FINAGLING
WITH TEMPS FOR TDA AS MOST OF CWA WERE WITHIN 4-5 DEGREES OF HIGH
TEMPS TDA. WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE AS MOST
LOCALES SHUD EASILY PUSH INTO THE U70S. LATEST HRRR NOW HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO WRN ZONES BY 22Z AND THIS WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PREV DISCO BLO...
155 AM UPDATE...
SPRINGTIME STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SVR WX TO THE PLAINS YDA WL BE
HEADED NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WM FNT DRAPED ACRS SRN
ONTARIO AND NRN NY STATE EXTENDS FM SFC LOW LOCATED OVR THE QUAD
CITIES REGION. ASSOC H5 TROF IS SPINNING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG MS RVR.
ALL THIS MEANS WITH REGARD TO OUR WX IS A MILD SRLY FLOW CONTG TDA.
GOM IS CURRENTLY WIDE OPEN AND DRAWING IN WARM/MOIST AIR TO CNTRL
PART OF NATION WITH PW VALUES WELL ABV 1 INCH. AS TROF SLIDES EVER
CLOSER TO CWA THRU THE AFTN EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCRS TO OVR 1.00
INCHES. THIS HELPS TO INCRS DWPT VALUES INTO THE 50S AND PRECLUDE
FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TDA AS OPPOSED TO YDA.
IN ADDITION AN INCRS IN CLDS FM THE APPCHG SYSTEM WL SPREAD MOCLDY
SKIES TO WRN ZONES DRG THE AFTN HRS WITH A HIGH THIN CIRRUS EXPECTED
RMNDR OF AREA. THIS WL HELP TO TEMPER TEMP RISE TDA WITH MOST HIGHS
IN THE M70S.
WARM ADVECTION WL COMBINE WITH APPCHG UL FRCG AND LGT SHOWERS WL
START TO DVLP ACRS THE WEST BTWN 18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTN BFR SLIDING
EAST, PERHAPS GETTING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN CNY BY 00Z
TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE WITH PLACEMENT OF CDFNT AT 00Z TONIGHT BUT
DIFFER WITH REGARD TO QPF WITH GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN EURO AND
NAM. WUD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE IN CNTRL SXNS
OF CWA UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION BUT FEEL THE CRUX OF THE PCPN WL
BE FELT IN THE FINGER LKS REGION THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
POPS INCRS TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS FRCG FM FRONT MVS CLOSER TO
CWA. LKLY POPS EXPECTED BY 06Z, THEN INCRSG TO 100 POPS BY MRNG.
GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE SURGE (THETA-E RIDGE) AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
HV GONE WITH MORE SHOWERY MENTION THRU 09Z TONIGHT. H5 LOW WL BE
SITTING UP ACRS HUDSON BAY WITH L/WV TROF BCMG NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE
MRNG. 250MB SPEED MAX WL STRENGTHEN TO +120KTS BY DAYBREAK WITH CWA
IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION ARND 09Z, THUS WL GO WITH MORE OF A RAIN
SCENARIO AFT THIS TIME.
HV ADDED IN CHC FOR THUNDER DRG THE OVRNGT AS SI`S APPRCH ZERO,
MLCAPES ARND 100 J/KG AND K-INDICES > 30. 00Z MODELS AGREE THAT
CDFNT WL BE ENTERING INTO WRN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
TEMPS WL FALL THRU THE DAY TUE IN CNY AS CDFNT COMES BLASTING THRU.
MAY SEE A BRIEF RISE IN TEMPS ACRS SERN ZONES DRG THE MRNG BFR
HOLDING STEADY THEN FALLING STEADILY AFT 18Z. HV SIDED MORE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET WITH THE GFS AND EURO
AS NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW. EXPECT ALL RAIN DRG THE MRNG HRS AND
THEN SLOWLY MIXING WITH SLEET BY EARLY AFTN ACRS THE FINGER LKS,
THEN BCMG ALL SNOW AFT 21Z IN THE FINGER LKS. PCPN WL START TO MIX
WITH SLEET AND SNOW AFT 21Z ACRS THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN NY STATE WITH
RAIN EXPECTED THRU 00Z WED IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN CNTYS.
EXPECT ALL SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR SERN
ZONES EARLY AS THEY TRANSITION OVR. SNOWFALL AMNTS FM TIME OF
TRANSITION (LATE AFTN TUE) UNTIL PCPN EXITS STAGE RIGHT ARND 06Z WED
LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES.
WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO NR -14C WED MRNG, EXPECT OVRNGT
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. THIS IS UNDER STRONG NW WINDS AS WELL.
IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE, TEMPS MAY DROP EVEN LOWER. THIS WUD PUT
RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY FOR THIS DATE. KBGM`S RECORD LOW IS 24F,
KAVP IS 20F AND KSYR IS 23F.
UNDER FULL SUN WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN ON WED, MAX TEMPS WL QUICKLY
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. HIGH WL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WED NGT, ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS WITH NEXT WEEKEND/S STORM SYSTEM. BEFORE
THIS HOWEVER...DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA. IN TERMS OF NEXT
WEEKEND/S STORM SYSTEM...THE GFS TAKES A SFC LOW DIRECTLY OVER OUR
FCST REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY LOOSING STEAM AS ENERGY
TRANSFERS TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
UNDER THE LATTER SCENARIO...MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION IS SPARED OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE CANADIAN-CMC TOO
SHOWS TRANSFERRING ENERGY ALBEIT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. IF THIS WERE TO PANE OUT AS ADVERTISED...SOME SOME PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY WORK NORTH INTO OUR AREA. AS RESULT OF THIS THIRD
SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FCST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY SFC HIGH
PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH SOME MODIFICATION
ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OUT OF THE GATE THIS MORNING. MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE DAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FCST MODELS SHOW SOME SHWR ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
TO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST. MUCH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS PRECIP SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
CATEGORICAL DECREASES TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS AS
STEADY PRECIP MOVES IN. MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR IFR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE ITH AND BGM...WITH MVFR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY,
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
AGAIN TODAY BUT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECLUDED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE MILD AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
993MB SFC LOW HAS NOW MVD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH STRONG COLD
FRONT DRAPED BACK THRU THE MIDWEST. AS IT CROSSED CHICAGO, O-HARE
DROPPED 16 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS
OUR AREA TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME HAVE HAD TO DO SOME FINAGLING
WITH TEMPS FOR TDA AS MOST OF CWA WERE WITHIN 4-5 DEGREES OF HIGH
TEMPS TDA. WENT SIGNIFICANTLY ABV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE AS MOST
LOCALES SHUD EASILY PUSH INTO THE U70S. LATEST HRRR NOW HAS
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO WRN ZONES BY 22Z AND THIS WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PREV DISCO BLO...
155 AM UPDATE...
SPRINGTIME STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SVR WX TO THE PLAINS YDA WL BE
HEADED NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WM FNT DRAPED ACRS SRN
ONTARIO AND NRN NY STATE EXTENDS FM SFC LOW LOCATED OVR THE QUAD
CITIES REGION. ASSOC H5 TROF IS SPINNING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG MS RVR.
ALL THIS MEANS WITH REGARD TO OUR WX IS A MILD SRLY FLOW CONTG TDA.
GOM IS CURRENTLY WIDE OPEN AND DRAWING IN WARM/MOIST AIR TO CNTRL
PART OF NATION WITH PW VALUES WELL ABV 1 INCH. AS TROF SLIDES EVER
CLOSER TO CWA THRU THE AFTN EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCRS TO OVR 1.00
INCHES. THIS HELPS TO INCRS DWPT VALUES INTO THE 50S AND PRECLUDE
FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR TDA AS OPPOSED TO YDA.
IN ADDITION AN INCRS IN CLDS FM THE APPCHG SYSTEM WL SPREAD MOCLDY
SKIES TO WRN ZONES DRG THE AFTN HRS WITH A HIGH THIN CIRRUS EXPECTED
RMNDR OF AREA. THIS WL HELP TO TEMPER TEMP RISE TDA WITH MOST HIGHS
IN THE M70S.
WARM ADVECTION WL COMBINE WITH APPCHG UL FRCG AND LGT SHOWERS WL
START TO DVLP ACRS THE WEST BTWN 18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTN BFR SLIDING
EAST, PERHAPS GETTING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN CNY BY 00Z
TONIGHT. MODELS AGREE WITH PLACEMENT OF CDFNT AT 00Z TONIGHT BUT
DIFFER WITH REGARD TO QPF WITH GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN EURO AND
NAM. WUD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE IN CNTRL SXNS
OF CWA UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION BUT FEEL THE CRUX OF THE PCPN WL
BE FELT IN THE FINGER LKS REGION THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
POPS INCRS TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS FRCG FM FRONT MVS CLOSER TO
CWA. LKLY POPS EXPECTED BY 06Z, THEN INCRSG TO 100 POPS BY MRNG.
GIVEN STRONG MOISTURE SURGE (THETA-E RIDGE) AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
HV GONE WITH MORE SHOWERY MENTION THRU 09Z TONIGHT. H5 LOW WL BE
SITTING UP ACRS HUDSON BAY WITH L/WV TROF BCMG NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE
MRNG. 250MB SPEED MAX WL STRENGTHEN TO +120KTS BY DAYBREAK WITH CWA
IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION ARND 09Z, THUS WL GO WITH MORE OF A RAIN
SCENARIO AFT THIS TIME.
HV ADDED IN CHC FOR THUNDER DRG THE OVRNGT AS SI`S APPRCH ZERO,
MLCAPES ARND 100 J/KG AND K-INDICES > 30. 00Z MODELS AGREE THAT
CDFNT WL BE ENTERING INTO WRN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
TEMPS WL FALL THRU THE DAY TUE IN CNY AS CDFNT COMES BLASTING THRU.
MAY SEE A BRIEF RISE IN TEMPS ACRS SERN ZONES DRG THE MRNG BFR
HOLDING STEADY THEN FALLING STEADILY AFT 18Z. HV SIDED MORE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET WITH THE GFS AND EURO
AS NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW. EXPECT ALL RAIN DRG THE MRNG HRS AND
THEN SLOWLY MIXING WITH SLEET BY EARLY AFTN ACRS THE FINGER LKS,
THEN BCMG ALL SNOW AFT 21Z IN THE FINGER LKS. PCPN WL START TO MIX
WITH SLEET AND SNOW AFT 21Z ACRS THE I-81 CORRIDOR IN NY STATE WITH
RAIN EXPECTED THRU 00Z WED IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN CNTYS.
EXPECT ALL SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR SERN
ZONES EARLY AS THEY TRANSITION OVR. SNOWFALL AMNTS FM TIME OF
TRANSITION (LATE AFTN TUE) UNTIL PCPN EXITS STAGE RIGHT ARND 06Z WED
LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES.
WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO NR -14C WED MRNG, EXPECT OVRNGT
LOWS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS. THIS IS UNDER STRONG NW WINDS AS WELL.
IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE, TEMPS MAY DROP EVEN LOWER. THIS WUD PUT
RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY FOR THIS DATE. KBGM`S RECORD LOW IS 24F,
KAVP IS 20F AND KSYR IS 23F.
UNDER FULL SUN WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN ON WED, MAX TEMPS WL QUICKLY
CLIMB INTO THE 40S. HIGH WL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WED NGT, ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS WITH NEXT WEEKEND/S STORM SYSTEM. BEFORE
THIS HOWEVER...DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CANADA. IN TERMS OF NEXT
WEEKEND/S STORM SYSTEM...THE GFS TAKES A SFC LOW DIRECTLY OVER OUR
FCST REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY LOOSING STEAM AS ENERGY
TRANSFERS TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
UNDER THE LATTER SCENARIO...MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION IS SPARED OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE CANADIAN-CMC TOO
SHOWS TRANSFERRING ENERGY ALBEIT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. IF THIS WERE TO PANE OUT AS ADVERTISED...SOME SOME PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY WORK NORTH INTO OUR AREA. AS RESULT OF THIS THIRD
SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FCST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY SFC HIGH
PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXES BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH SOME MODIFICATION
ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST PERIOD
AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOLID GUSTS TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BEFORE THIS
HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS OFF THE DECK WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL SITES UNTIL MIXING COMMENCES AFTER SUNRISE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIP CHANGES...BEST POTENTIAL EXISTS AT SYR/RME/ITH/ELM AFTER 21
OR SO...WITH BEST ORGANIZED RAIN POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z AT ALL CNY SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT AVP THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. AT ITH AND BGM...EXPECT DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS AFTER
00Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE...
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY,
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
AGAIN TODAY BUT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE PRECLUDED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT. COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING RAIN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING SHOWERS TO
AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS
BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
AREA RMNS IN WM SECTOR TONIGHT WITH SRLY FLOW DRAWING IN WRMR AIR.
TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP OFF ACRS THE SRN TIER AS THEY REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPR 60S. EXPECT THESE TEMPS WL ONLY DROP SVRL MORE
DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK EXCEPT IN DECOUPLED VLY LOCALES, THUS HV
WARMED LOWS INTO THE LWR 60S MOST LOCATIONS FOR OVRNGT MINS. NO
OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND THE SAINT LAWRENCE SEAWAY...SO AS EXPECTED WE ARE STAYING
DRY TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DECOUPLED AND SOME GRADUAL DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES IS OCCURRING. VERY MILD REGARDLESS...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EARLIER...SINCE THE HIGH THIN CLOUDS
ERADICATED MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE LOW 20S CELSIUS TEMPERATURES
AT 925MB /AS HAD BEEN SUGGESTED BY RUC MODEL/ WERE ABLE TO FULLY
REALIZE THEIR MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES OF LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...THE WARMEST READINGS IN 6 MONTHS. BINGHAMTON AIRPORT
DAILY RECORD HIGH IS 80 DEGREES SET IN 1977...AND IT TURNED OUT
JUST 1 DEGREE SHORT OF IT TODAY. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA ALSO JUST A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF DAILY RECORDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY MILD TEMPS TDA WITH WARM SWLY FLOW. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED -SHRA
ACRS NRN ONEIDA LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG OTRW A DRY FCST. VERY MILD
MINS TNGT.
NXT SYSTEM APRCHS TMRW. A FEW MDLS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ALONG A
PRE-FNTL TROF OVER CNTRL NY ARND MID DAY. IN ANY EVENT...INCRSNG
CHCS FOR SHRA TMRW AFTN WITH MAXES GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. TEMPS MAY FALL DURING THE AFTN WRN ZONES AS CLDS AND SCT
-SHRA MOVE IN. GUSTY SSW WINDS CONTINUE ON MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE/ANAFRONT
MOVS THRU ON TUE WITH WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NE ALONG IT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT ON TUE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FCST
W/RESPECT TO CHGOVER AND +RA POTNL IN THE EAST. IN GNRL 12Z RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE IS BASICALLY THRU THE CWA
BY 00Z WED...AND NAM/GFS SFC INDICATE RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LVLS WITH THE
FNT ON TUE.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
STORM...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER TIMING. WE COULD
SEE PL IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAY IT AS RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. GIVEN A COUPLE OF VERY WARM DAYS THINK ICE POTNL
FROM NAM PROFILES IS OVERDONE. WE DID LIKE THE WWD SNOW ACCUMS
WITH POTNL FOR GNRLY 2-4 INCHES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG ACRS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL NY.
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUE NGT...WITH LAKE
CLDS LIKELY SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WED MRNG IN NWLY FLOW. MUCH
COOLER WITH MAXES ONLY U30S TO L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST PERIOD
AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOLID GUSTS TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BEFORE THIS
HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS OFF THE DECK WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL SITES UNTIL MIXING COMMENCES AFTER SUNRISE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIP CHANGES...BEST POTENTIAL EXISTS AT SYR/RME/ITH/ELM AFTER 21
OR SO...WITH BEST ORGANIZED RAIN POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z AT ALL CNY SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT AVP THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. AT ITH AND BGM...EXPECT DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS AFTER
00Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
1015 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
CONDITIONS APPROACHED CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RECOVERING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALREADY IN THE 40S-50S PCT RANGE AT 10 PM.
FAIRLY WARM WITH STOUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN MONDAY...BUT
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MONDAY...VERSUS
WHAT WE JUST HAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE A GOOD 15 TO 25
PERCENT HIGHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A SOLID WETTING RAIN TUESDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SOME CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
105 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING SHOWERS TO
AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS
BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
AREA RMNS IN WM SECTOR TONIGHT WITH SRLY FLOW DRAWING IN WRMR AIR.
TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP OFF ACRS THE SRN TIER AS THEY REMAIN
IN THE MID/UPR 60S. EXPECT THESE TEMPS WL ONLY DROP SVRL MORE
DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK EXCEPT IN DECOUPLED VLY LOCALES, THUS HV
WARMED LOWS INTO THE LWR 60S MOST LOCATIONS FOR OVRNGT MINS. NO
OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...
1015 PM UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AROUND THE SAINT LAWRENCE SEAWAY...SO AS EXPECTED WE ARE STAYING
DRY TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DECOUPLED AND SOME GRADUAL DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES IS OCCURRING. VERY MILD REGARDLESS...WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EARLIER...SINCE THE HIGH THIN CLOUDS
ERADICATED MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE LOW 20S CELSIUS TEMPERATURES
AT 925MB /AS HAD BEEN SUGGESTED BY RUC MODEL/ WERE ABLE TO FULLY
REALIZE THEIR MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES OF LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...THE WARMEST READINGS IN 6 MONTHS. BINGHAMTON AIRPORT
DAILY RECORD HIGH IS 80 DEGREES SET IN 1977...AND IT TURNED OUT
JUST 1 DEGREE SHORT OF IT TODAY. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA ALSO JUST A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF DAILY RECORDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY MILD TEMPS TDA WITH WARM SWLY FLOW. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED -SHRA
ACRS NRN ONEIDA LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG OTRW A DRY FCST. VERY MILD
MINS TNGT.
NXT SYSTEM APRCHS TMRW. A FEW MDLS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ALONG A
PRE-FNTL TROF OVER CNTRL NY ARND MID DAY. IN ANY EVENT...INCRSNG
CHCS FOR SHRA TMRW AFTN WITH MAXES GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. TEMPS MAY FALL DURING THE AFTN WRN ZONES AS CLDS AND SCT
-SHRA MOVE IN. GUSTY SSW WINDS CONTINUE ON MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE/ANAFRONT
MOVS THRU ON TUE WITH WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NE ALONG IT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT ON TUE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FCST
W/RESPECT TO CHGOVER AND +RA POTNL IN THE EAST. IN GNRL 12Z RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE IS BASICALLY THRU THE CWA
BY 00Z WED...AND NAM/GFS SFC INDICATE RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LVLS WITH THE
FNT ON TUE.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
STORM...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER TIMING. WE COULD
SEE PL IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAY IT AS RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. GIVEN A COUPLE OF VERY WARM DAYS THINK ICE POTNL
FROM NAM PROFILES IS OVERDONE. WE DID LIKE THE WWD SNOW ACCUMS
WITH POTNL FOR GNRLY 2-4 INCHES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG ACRS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL NY.
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUE NGT...WITH LAKE
CLDS LIKELY SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WED MRNG IN NWLY FLOW. MUCH
COOLER WITH MAXES ONLY U30S TO L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS /KSYR-KITH-KELM AND MAYBE KRME/
21Z MON-00Z TUE. THIS WILL BE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL NOT
PASS UNTIL TUESDAY. WINDS DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING NEAR
THE SURFACE...YET STILL STRONG FROM THE SSW AS A 40-50 KT JET
DEVELOPS AT 1500-2000 FT AGL...RESULTING IN LLWS CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. LLWS THEN BECOMES A NON-ISSUE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS WINDS
MANAGE TO MIX DOWN BETTER TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SURFACE WIND SUSTAINED MID TEENS WITH
GUSTS IN 25-30 KT RANGE...FROM SSW DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW TUE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
1015 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
CONDITIONS APPROACHED CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RECOVERING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALREADY IN THE 40S-50S PCT RANGE AT 10 PM.
FAIRLY WARM WITH STOUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN MONDAY...BUT
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MONDAY...VERSUS
WHAT WE JUST HAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE A GOOD 15 TO 25
PERCENT HIGHER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A SOLID WETTING RAIN TUESDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES. EVEN SOME CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
302 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AN INCH...AND
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C AND MLCAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED J/KG...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF IS HANDLING THE LOCATION...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY
OF THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL...AND THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY THE RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AS
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH...AND THE NAM IN PARTICULAR FORECASTS 850MB LIFT TO
DECREASE...BUT 850MB WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ADD TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...AND 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL TO
AROUND 40KT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE. ALREADY...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE COVERAGE OF
NUMEROUS OR GREATER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...THEN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND 850MB WINDS AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM
MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25KT AT KGSO AND EVEN THE
GFS FORECASTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO JUST BELOW 20KT LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW DECENT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT WOULD SEEM...AS ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AROUND AND JUST AFTER 06Z...
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AT KGSO WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 40KT...AND THE NAM...WHILE
DRIER...DOES HAVE A SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE WARM...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.
FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF BKN MVFR CIGS NEAR INT/GSO EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD FROM 18Z-20Z TODAY... A PERIOD OF CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THROUGH
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z)... WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS
SPORADICALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS... AND VFR CIGS. PATCHY SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY AT FAY... BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST ANY MORE THAN
15 MIN AT ANY ONE TIME. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... AROUND 02Z OR 03Z... WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO MVFR THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME... WITH
CONTINUED STOUT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SSW (FROM 180-210 DEGREES)
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 14-17 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ON-AND-OFF MAINLY MVFR-VSBY-PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM THIS 04Z-
06Z TIME FRAME THROUGH AROUND 11Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY
FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... POTENTIALLY
INDUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... BUT A LULL IN SHOWERS IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM THIS 11Z-13Z WINDOW LASTING A FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY RISE
A BIT TO MVFR DURING THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP. HOWEVER... AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... INT/GSO MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (AFTER 16Z).
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATING IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 18Z
THROUGH 06Z... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO BE FROM THE NW TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS POST-
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THU EVENING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER LOW STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH NOON
SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM MONDAY...
THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION WITH A GOOD CAP
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB. THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALTHOUGH WITH A
NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASING VALUES...JUST BELOW AN INCH...EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST WAS PROVIDING A
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
TO OUR WEST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE
OFFSET UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
DECREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING IN
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND HAVE INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS AS
MOIST AND WARM AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP TO OUR WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD.
THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME DIFFLUENCE TO OUR WEST AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
RAP SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIGHT 700MB COOLING ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS...ALTHOUGH THE RAP ALSO FORECASTS A MODEST
INCREASE IN THOSE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
AROUND 400J/KG AND MLCAPE IN THHIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED ABOUT A
DEGREE IN THE TRIAD DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND RAISED ABOUT A
DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 DUE TO THINNER CLOUDS FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME THERE. E LOWEST KM AROUND 200J/KG...AND SOME LIFT
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...AS THE CAP ERODES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
LATER...THIS COULD FOR A TIME INHIBIT MORE DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THIS SCENARIO IS NOTED BY MORE THAN ONE WRF MODEL AS WELL AS IMPLIED
BY RAP QPF.
MOISTENING OF THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INCREASE CLOUD DEPTH AND ALLOW
FOR LIFTING OVER A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LIFTING WILL STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD
FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT DUE TO ONGOING
MOISTENING...STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS...AND PERIODIC DPVA IN SW
FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN THE DEEP SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD...ONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT...AND HOW THESE FEATURES
EVOLVE/INTERACT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL MOST CERTAINLY
AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES DOWNSTREAM IN CENTRAL NC...LENDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECISE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE...ROUGHLY
A DEGREE...FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHS WERE RAISED ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE
95 WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE PERIODS OF THINNER CLOUDS AND MORE
SUNLIGHT HITTING THE GROUND. A VERY MOIST AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR IN THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN
THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH QUITE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN...IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
TUE/TUE NIGHT: EXPECT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEAR 100% ON TUESDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE NW
PIEDMONT AND BY 00-03Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THEREAFTER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
RISE IN TEMPS PRIOR TO FROPA...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S POTENTIALLY IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE FROPA WILL BE LATER. STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) CERTAINLY INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE PRECISE NATURE OF
THE THREAT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTION /MCS ACTIVITY/ LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT(S)...
THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY BACKED SFC WINDS
/LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS/ POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF ANY SFC WAVES WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE
DIURNAL TIMING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1.
A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. SINCE LOWS WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND UPON COLD ADVECTION...
SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PRECLUDE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION BUT WITH STILL A
RESIDUALLY DRY AND STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG - INTO
THE 1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WILL RESULT OVER CENTRAL NC. INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES WED WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TO PERHAPS MOSTLY SO IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN...BY THU AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE FLAT
STRATOCUMULUS IS ADVECTED INLAND BENEATH THE CAP.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU AND CLEAR SKIES WOULD SUPPORT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THU
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CALM GIVEN A
PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH
WED NIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS TO REFLECT MOSTLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S...COOLEST WEST...BUT THESE MAY NEED FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
(OR AT LEAST OPEN THE RANGE) TO INCLUDE SOME UPPER 20S (AROUND
RECORD LOWS) IF IT INDEED APPEARS ANY PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE CALM
WILL BE ATTAINED. SIMILARLY COOL IN THE MIDDLE 50S WED...WHICH MAY
THREATEN THE RECORD LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES AT KFAY FOR THE DATE. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SLOW MODERATION TO AROUND 60 AND 40 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESPECTIVELY...THU AND THU NIGHT. -MWS
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
THOUGH MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG
TERM...THE EMERGING SIGNAL FROM THE MAJORITY OF BOTH THE ENSEMBLE
AND SOLUTIONS OS FOR A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE US...ONE THAT WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT - A STORM TRACK THAT
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS
DEPICTED BY AT LEAST THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WHICH HAVE
MINIMAL SUPPORT FROM THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY
OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING/INTERACTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME
DEGREE OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A WETTER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF NC DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
EVENING...SO MENTIONABLE POP WILL BE CONFINED TO THAT TIME UNTIL A
CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...
ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF BKN MVFR CIGS NEAR INT/GSO EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD FROM 18Z-20Z TODAY... A PERIOD OF CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THROUGH
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z)... WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS
SPORADICALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS... AND VFR CIGS. PATCHY SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY AT FAY... BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST ANY MORE THAN
15 MIN AT ANY ONE TIME. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... AROUND 02Z OR 03Z... WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO MVFR THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME... WITH
CONTINUED STOUT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SSW (FROM 180-210 DEGREES)
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 14-17 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ON-AND-OFF MAINLY MVFR-VSBY-PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM THIS 04Z-
06Z TIME FRAME THROUGH AROUND 11Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY
FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... POTENTIALLY
INDUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... BUT A LULL IN SHOWERS IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM THIS 11Z-13Z WINDOW LASTING A FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY RISE
A BIT TO MVFR DURING THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP. HOWEVER... AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... INT/GSO MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (AFTER 16Z).
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATING IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 18Z
THROUGH 06Z... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO BE FROM THE NW TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS POST-
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THU EVENING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER LOW STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH NOON
SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THU:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/SR/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
DEPICTED IN FCST SOUNDINGS. STILL EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED BY HRRR AND OTHER
HI RES MODELS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONLY SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A CYCLONE MOVING UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND ALTHOUGH ITS DIRECT IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TODAY.
KLTX RADAR THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON S/SE WINDS...BUT MOST OF THESE ARE
EVAPORATING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...BEFORE
COMING ONSHORE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...HRRR/ARW/WRF...SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE BEFORE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND DUE TO
THIS AGREEMENT HAVE SHOWN POP GRIDS WHICH MATCH THIS IDEA. AT THE
SAME TIME...PRECIP WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. MID-LEVEL DRYNESS WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...BUT
BY TONIGHT FORECAST PROFILES SATURATE AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 70S...HIGHEST INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT A RATHER MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST...MID 60S
INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S...WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. LLJ UP TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING A STRONG JET WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD US IN SLIGHT RISK WITH
MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO IN SOME
LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TUES AFTN. THE CLOUDS MAY COME
INTO PLAY AS A LIMITING FACTOR WORKING AGAINST THE CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH TUES...BUT TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO START
THE DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE WITH PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. BEST LIFT WILL COME AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
A TOTAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TUES WILL
DROP TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY WED MORNING. 850 TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET FROM CLOSE TO 13C DOWN NEAR 4C BY WED MORNING. THIS
STRONG CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 20 DEGREES F FROM TUES TO
WED. TEMPS BY WED MORNING WILL BE DOWN IN THE 30S OVER SOME PLACES
INLAND. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DOWN TO MID 20S BY TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF APRIL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE TEMPS
CLOSE TO 60. A PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP N-NE FLOW
REINFORCING THE COOL AIR THROUGH THURS NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 30S MANY PLACES INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS THURS INTO FRI WITH TROUGH OFF
SHORE. THE GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURS AND FURTHER INTO
FRIDAY. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
THURS BUT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND RISES UP FROM THE GULF
COAST THROUGH FRI...THE SHALLOW COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE OVERRUN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF PCP. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW...BASICALLY BELOW 5K FT. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM MAY KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OFF
SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. KEPT POPS UP ON FRI ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH FROM GULF LOW BEFORE
MOVING OFF SHORE. MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
THURS INTO FRI THAN PCP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN CAA
INITIALLY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP BY SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REACH BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STABLE LAYER AROUND 6500 FT HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE A
BIT CAPPED...BUT THAT STABLE LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
PRECIP...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS INLAND. WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 7-8
KTS OVERNIGHT...IN FACT THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE IN AND OUT WITH DECENT COVERAGE. MODELS
INDICATE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AFTER MIDDAY...STARTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH 55 KTS AT 2500 FEET.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY SPARE THE COAST FROM STRONG STORMS IF THEY WAIT
TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IS SLOWLY LOSING
ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. THIS IS DRIVING S/SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AT
THE LOCAL BUOYS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS TONIGHT. LOCAL SWAN GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 1 FT TOO
HIGH WITH CURRENT SEAS...SO HAVE BLENDED DOWN WITH WNAWAVE TO MORE
ACCURATELY REPRESENT ONGOING CONDITIONS...AND SHOW A SLOWER RISE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT
TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...BEGINNING
AT 2 AM TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. MAY REACH GALE CRITERIA TUES NIGHT IN COLD SURGE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUES FROM 5 TO 7 FT UP
TO 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 30 KTS WILL KEEP SEAS UP
POSSIBLY TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT TUES INTO EARLY WED.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH WED AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
SHORE ALONG LINGERING COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE OF COLD
AIR AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAINTAIN N-NE WINDS CLOSER TO
20 KTS INITIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY LATE THURS REMAINING CLOSER TO 15 KTS
THROUGH FRI. SEAS SHOULD DROP DOWN BUT REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW/BJR
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1214 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
DEPICTED IN FCST SOUNDINGS. STILL EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED BY HRRR AND OTHER
HI RES MODELS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONLY SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT MUCH MORE
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS CLOUD COVER IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT IS TRAILING FROM A CYCLONE MOVING UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...AND ALTHOUGH ITS DIRECT IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TODAY.
KLTX RADAR THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON S/SE WINDS...BUT MOST OF THESE ARE
EVAPORATING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...BEFORE
COMING ONSHORE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...HRRR/ARW/WRF...SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN OF SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE BEFORE ROTATING NORTH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND DUE TO
THIS AGREEMENT HAVE SHOWN POP GRIDS WHICH MATCH THIS IDEA. AT THE
SAME TIME...PRECIP WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. MID-LEVEL DRYNESS WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...BUT
BY TONIGHT FORECAST PROFILES SATURATE AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL QPF WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 70S...HIGHEST INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT A RATHER MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST...MID 60S
INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S...WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. LLJ UP TO 45 KTS COMBINED
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCLUDING A STRONG JET WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SPC CONTINUES TO HOLD US IN SLIGHT RISK WITH
MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO IN SOME
LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TUES AFTN. THE CLOUDS MAY COME
INTO PLAY AS A LIMITING FACTOR WORKING AGAINST THE CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH TUES...BUT TEMPS WILL ALREADY BE WELL INTO THE 60S TO START
THE DAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST PLACES. TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE WITH PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. BEST LIFT WILL COME AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
A TOTAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL COME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. PCP
WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES AHEAD OF FRONT LATE TUES WILL
DROP TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY WED MORNING. 850 TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET FROM CLOSE TO 13C DOWN NEAR 4C BY WED MORNING. THIS
STRONG CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 20 DEGREES F FROM TUES TO
WED. TEMPS BY WED MORNING WILL BE DOWN IN THE 30S OVER SOME PLACES
INLAND. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DOWN TO MID 20S BY TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS TO BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF APRIL SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE TEMPS
CLOSE TO 60. A PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP N-NE FLOW
REINFORCING THE COOL AIR THROUGH THURS NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 30S MANY PLACES INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS THURS INTO FRI WITH TROUGH OFF
SHORE. THE GREATER ON SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURS AND FURTHER INTO
FRIDAY. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN DOWN BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
THURS BUT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND RISES UP FROM THE GULF
COAST THROUGH FRI...THE SHALLOW COOL AND DRY AIR WILL BE OVERRUN
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE LATE THURS INTO FRI WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF PCP. THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW...BASICALLY BELOW 5K FT. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM MOVES EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM MAY KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OFF
SHORE THROUGH FRI LEAVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. KEPT POPS UP ON FRI ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH FROM GULF LOW BEFORE
MOVING OFF SHORE. MAY END UP BEING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
THURS INTO FRI THAN PCP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN CAA
INITIALLY AND THEN CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP BY SUN NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REACH BACK UP
TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...DENSE CIRRUS AND WINDS AROUND 5 KTS HAVE KEPT FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR RISING DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASING
SOUTH WIND. SOME CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT
COULD KICK OFF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FAIRLY SPARSE COVERAGE
WITH A VCSH MENTION. TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS INTO
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IS SLOWLY LOSING
ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. THIS IS DRIVING S/SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AT
THE LOCAL BUOYS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS TONIGHT. LOCAL SWAN GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 1 FT TOO
HIGH WITH CURRENT SEAS...SO HAVE BLENDED DOWN WITH WNAWAVE TO MORE
ACCURATELY REPRESENT ONGOING CONDITIONS...AND SHOW A SLOWER RISE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT
TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT...BEGINNING
AT 2 AM TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. MAY REACH GALE CRITERIA TUES NIGHT IN COLD SURGE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUES FROM 5 TO 7 FT UP
TO 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 30 KTS WILL KEEP SEAS UP
POSSIBLY TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT TUES INTO EARLY WED.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH WED AS NORTHERLY WINDS VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
SHORE ALONG LINGERING COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE OF COLD
AIR AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAINTAIN N-NE WINDS CLOSER TO
20 KTS INITIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AND VEER SLIGHTLY LATE THURS REMAINING CLOSER TO 15 KTS
THROUGH FRI. SEAS SHOULD DROP DOWN BUT REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...JDW/BJR
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1055 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM MONDAY...
THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION WITH A GOOD CAP
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB. THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALTHOUGH WITH A
NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASING VALUES...JUST BELOW AN INCH...EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST WAS PROVIDING A
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
TO OUR WEST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE
OFFSET UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
DECREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING IN
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND HAVE INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS AS
MOIST AND WARM AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP TO OUR WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD.
THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME DIFFLUENCE TO OUR WEST AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
RAP SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIGHT 700MB COOLING ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS...ALTHOUGH THE RAP ALSO FORECASTS A MODEST
INCREASE IN THOSE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
AROUND 400J/KG AND MLCAPE IN THHIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED ABOUT A
DEGREE IN THE TRIAD DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND RAISED ABOUT A
DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 DUE TO THINNER CLOUDS FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME THERE. E LOWEST KM AROUND 200J/KG...AND SOME LIFT
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...AS THE CAP ERODES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
LATER...THIS COULD FOR A TIME INHIBIT MORE DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THIS SCENARIO IS NOTED BY MORE THAN ONE WRF MODEL AS WELL AS IMPLIED
BY RAP QPF.
MOISTENING OF THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INCREASE CLOUD DEPTH AND ALLOW
FOR LIFTING OVER A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LIFTING WILL STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD
FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT DUE TO ONGOING
MOISTENING...STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS...AND PERIODIC DPVA IN SW
FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN THE DEEP SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD...ONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT...AND HOW THESE FEATURES
EVOLVE/INTERACT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL MOST CERTAINLY
AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES DOWNSTREAM IN CENTRAL NC...LENDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECISE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE...ROUGHLY
A DEGREE...FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHS WERE RAISED ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE
95 WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE PERIODS OF THINNER CLOUDS AND MORE
SUNLIGHT HITTING THE GROUND. A VERY MOIST AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR IN THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN
THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH QUITE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN...IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
TUE/TUE NIGHT: EXPECT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEAR 100% ON TUESDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE NW
PIEDMONT AND BY 00-03Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THEREAFTER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
RISE IN TEMPS PRIOR TO FROPA...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S POTENTIALLY IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE FROPA WILL BE LATER. STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) CERTAINLY INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE PRECISE NATURE OF
THE THREAT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTION /MCS ACTIVITY/ LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT(S)...
THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY BACKED SFC WINDS
/LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS/ POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF ANY SFC WAVES WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE
DIURNAL TIMING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1.
A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. SINCE LOWS WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND UPON COLD ADVECTION...
SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PRECLUDE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION BUT WITH STILL A
RESIDUALLY DRY AND STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG - INTO
THE 1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WILL RESULT OVER CENTRAL NC. INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES WED WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TO PERHAPS MOSTLY SO IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN...BY THU AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE FLAT
STRATOCUMULUS IS ADVECTED INLAND BENEATH THE CAP.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU AND CLEAR SKIES WOULD SUPPORT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THU
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CALM GIVEN A
PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH
WED NIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS TO REFLECT MOSTLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S...COOLEST WEST...BUT THESE MAY NEED FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
(OR AT LEAST OPEN THE RANGE) TO INCLUDE SOME UPPER 20S (AROUND
RECORD LOWS) IF IT INDEED APPEARS ANY PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE CALM
WILL BE ATTAINED. SIMILARLY COOL IN THE MIDDLE 50S WED...WHICH MAY
THREATEN THE RECORD LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES AT KFAY FOR THE DATE. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SLOW MODERATION TO AROUND 60 AND 40 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESPECTIVELY...THU AND THU NIGHT. -MWS
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
THOUGH MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG
TERM...THE EMERGING SIGNAL FROM THE MAJORITY OF BOTH THE ENSEMBLE
AND SOLUTIONS OS FOR A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE US...ONE THAT WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT - A STORM TRACK THAT
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS
DEPICTED BY AT LEAST THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WHICH HAVE
MINIMAL SUPPORT FROM THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY
OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING/INTERACTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME
DEGREE OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A WETTER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF NC DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
EVENING...SO MENTIONABLE POP WILL BE CONFINED TO THAT TIME UNTIL A
CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /WARM ADVECTION/ IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS BY 12-15Z
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC. SHALLOW CONVECTION (SHRA) WITH TOPS
AROUND 10 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN ASSOC/W AN
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS IN ASSOC/W DIURNAL HEATING...
HOWEVER...DUE TO CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CEILINGS MAY REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...AT OR BELOW 2000 FT AGL. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 7-12 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22-25 KT DURING THE DAY...LIKELY REMAINING
BREEZY AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FROM THE WEST.
LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
ISOLD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE
RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY OR SSW WINDS AT 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THROUGH 18Z
TUE...BECOMING NW/NNW AT 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 18-21Z TUE AFTERNOON (INT/GSO) TO 00-03Z WED (FAY/RWI).
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EVENTUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST-EAST AND BECOMING VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WED-FRI. -VINCENT
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THU:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/SR/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
COORDINATED WITH WFO BIS AND IDEA WAS TO GREATLY BACK OFF ON POPS
THIS EVENING AS VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH RETURN FLOW OUT OF DRY HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DRY UP MOST IF NOT ALL THE
SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BAND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND THRU 06Z. DEW PTS WILL RISE
BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN THE RRV THIS EVE BEFORE REACHING
20S OVERNIGHT. MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES INTO CNTRL-ERN SD BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE FORCING FOR LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS CONCENTRATES IN FAR NRN SD INTO CNTRL MN AT 12Z
SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA PER ADVISORY AREA. 12Z GEM
WAS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH MAIN SNOW MORE SO WATERTOWN-WILMAR-ST
CLOUD LINE VERSUS MORE ALONG A SISSETON-ELBOW LAKE-BRAINERD AXIS.
RESULT OF DRIER AIR WILL GO DRY IN ERN ND THRU 06Z AND THEN KEEP
HIGHER POPS AFTER 06Z IN SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN. 23Z RAP FOCUSES
MOST SNOWFALL JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID EARLIER MORE SO
MILBANK SD INTO MORRIS MN TO LITTLE FALLS AGAIN SKIRTING FAR SOUTH
WITH ANY SIG SNOWFALL AND JUST VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS UP TOWARD FARGO
AND LITTLE TO NOTHING NORTH OF FARGO. TRIMMED POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY SNOW EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LESS QPF THROUGH THE EVENT.
FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL
OF UPPER FORCING AS MAIN WAVE JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS
MORNING AS WAVE APPROACHES H7 LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER E
CENTRAL SD WITH FAVORED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOW. SO EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND TO
BECOME MORE E-W FROM EASTERN SD-WEST CENTRAL MN WITH COMMON ND
BORDER AREA ON NORTHERN FRINGE. OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
DUE EAST FROM E SD INTO S MN. THIS WILL PUT FAR SE FA ON NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS AND IF WE
CAN GET TO OR ABOVE MELTING WILL HAVE A BEARING ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL EAST MID AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW FALL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COLUMN
AND MID APRIL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN SPITE OF FRESH
SNOW.
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EASTER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
THICKNESSES AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 850MB WAA BEGINS
SATURDAY IN WHICH NWP INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF WAA PCPN
FROM WEST TO EAST TO CROSS THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE MORE RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD IN THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AS SOUTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS INCREASE AS LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH IN MANITOBA-NW ONTARIO TO HAVE A STRONG EAST TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED 15
TO 22 KTS AND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS IN PLACES. PER MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CIGS THRU WED IN DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI
AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN FARGO LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MIDDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PSBL DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI AS
WELL BUT FEEL IT SHOULD STAY MORE ON THE LOW END VFR RANGE. DID
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO BJI 15Z WED BUT THAT IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MORE DATA COMES IN.
&&
HYDRO...THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A
DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS
FOR SABIN DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS.
ONLY SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...VG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
913 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE DIURNAL SHSN HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY JUST LAKE
EFFECT SHSN. STILL NOT GETTING AN HRRR MODEL RUNS BUT LATEST RUC
STILL HAS LAST OF MEASURABLE SHSN ENDING BY 05Z. BASED ON THE RUC
AND LATEST RADAR AND SAT PIX...LOOKS LIKE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS
IN LINE SO NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. FROM
HERE ON OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD JUST A HALF AN INCH
OR LESS HERE AND THERE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MID TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START A REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER AND A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE
GFS. I WILL WORK SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MORNING SHOWERS IN NW OHIO AND THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NE OH AND
NW PA. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW -2C FRIDAY NIGHT. WE MAY HAVE
TO WATCH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL. RIGHT NOW I WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A SHARP LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL OF SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY`S RIDGE
WILL ELEVATE POPS ACROSS THE TOLEDO METRO AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE LOW AS THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY LOOK LIKE
THE BETTER DAY FOR RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND DRAWS UP GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LAST OF THE COLD WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BEHIND
US WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEARLY NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING. THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST AND ALL FORECAST SITES WILL BECOME VFR TONIGHT. VFR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR A LAKE BREEZE
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE WIND ACROSS THE LAKE DIMINISHES IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH...THEN
GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR PASSAGE OVER LAKE ERIE EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
637 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF THE POPS IN A FEW ISOLATE WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z RUN OF THE NAM CAME OUT WITH A DISTINGUISHED LINE OF CONVECTION
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXES. GFS CAME IN SUPPORTING THE SAME FEATURE...WITH THE HRRR IN
LINE AS WELL AS THE LINE COMES INTO THE SCOPE OF THAT MODEL/S
FORECAST RANGE. THIS IS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SPC
KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO
LOW DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW SURFACE BASED CAPE. A DEVELOPING
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE HINTS OF CLEARING COMING
IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES AT 12Z TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF POPS DROPPING
TO CHANCE.
AFTER A VERY WARM MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE 80F MARK
AGAIN TODAY...COOLER WITHOUT MUCH SUN TO SPEAK OF...BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ALSO AGREEING ON THE
EXIT TIMING OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM. BY
DAYS END ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
THE BIG CHALLENGE IS THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE DURING
TUESDAY...IN THE VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND UNUSUALLY COLD
AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THUS THE PROSPECTS OF RAIN TO
SNOW. GIVEN THE COLD MODEL CONSENSUS ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE ISSUE WILL BE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DO SHOW STRONG TEMPERATURE FALLS IN THE MORNING AND TENDING
TO LEVEL OUT FOR A TIME IN THE LOW LANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY
BECAUSE IT BEST SHOWS A BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURE FALLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND CENTRAL. THUS...BELIEVE ANY
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE GROUND QUITE WARM. IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR
LESS AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 50S EAST AND NEAR
40 FAR WEST...REACHING BY EVENING THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST OF THE LOW
LANDS AND BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 2000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...
CLEARING FOLLOWS MORE SLOWLY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
ENOUGH AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST...AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AS THEY
FORECAST A RUN FOR RECORD LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
OUR MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
FREEZING.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. WITH DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE S/W TROF TRIES TO CREATE FOR
AN UNSETTLED SATURDAY. DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES REGARDING
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THREAT FOR SHRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO THE
WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. TSRA POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CANNOT PUT
IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS AND HAVE OPTED AGAIN FOR THE VCTS/CB
CODING IN THE TAFS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO AN ATMOSPHERE THAT IS
NOT THE MOST CONDUCIVE BECAUSE OF MODEST INSTABILITY.
STILL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL EXIST...AND A TEMPO OR TWO
IN AN AMENDMENT IS LIKELY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE THE BEST BET IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA. SAME WITH THE VISIBILITIES IN
PRECIPITATION. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 20KTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL
25KT GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH. A SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PASS TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY
BOUNCES COULD LEAD TO TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS. MAY NEED PREVAILING
TSRA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNDER MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
336 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z RUN OF THE NAM CAME OUT WITH A DISTINGUISHED LINE OF CONVECTION
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXES. GFS CAME IN SUPPORTING THE SAME FEATURE...WITH THE HRRR IN
LINE AS WELL AS THE LINE COMES INTO THE SCOPE OF THAT MODEL/S
FORECAST RANGE. THIS IS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SPC
KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO
LOW DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO LOW SURFACE BASED CAPE. A DEVELOPING
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED
THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE HINTS OF CLEARING COMING
IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES AT 12Z TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF POPS DROPPING
TO CHANCE.
AFTER A VERY WARM MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE 80F MARK
AGAIN TODAY...COOLER WITHOUT MUCH SUN TO SPEAK OF...BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ALSO AGREEING ON THE
EXIT TIMING OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM. BY
DAYS END ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
THE BIG CHALLENGE IS THE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE DURING
TUESDAY...IN THE VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND UNUSUALLY COLD
AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THUS THE PROSPECTS OF RAIN TO
SNOW. GIVEN THE COLD MODEL CONSENSUS ALOFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE ISSUE WILL BE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DO SHOW STRONG TEMPERATURE FALLS IN THE MORNING AND TENDING
TO LEVEL OUT FOR A TIME IN THE LOW LANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
FALLING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY
BECAUSE IT BEST SHOWS A BREAK IN THE TEMPERATURE FALLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST AND CENTRAL. THUS...BELIEVE ANY
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THE GROUND QUITE WARM. IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR
LESS AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO START OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 50S EAST AND NEAR
40 FAR WEST...REACHING BY EVENING THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST OF THE LOW
LANDS AND BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 2000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...
CLEARING FOLLOWS MORE SLOWLY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
ENOUGH AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST...AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AS THEY
FORECAST A RUN FOR RECORD LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
OUR MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
FREEZING.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. WITH DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE S/W TROF TRIES TO CREATE FOR
AN UNSETTLED SATURDAY. DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES REGARDING
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THREAT FOR SHRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...WITH CONVECTION ENTERING THE
WESTERN TERMINALS AT AROUND 17Z-18Z. PREFERRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC SET UP. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL TYPICALLY LEND TO
HIGHER CEILINGS...EVEN IN SHRA/TSRA. TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES. WILL REEVALUATE THE PREVAILING TSRA
POTENTIAL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SPEAKING OF VISIBILITIES...NOT EXPECTING BR/FG TO SETTLE IN
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE STRONG GRADIENT WIND SET UP.
MAY GET SOME GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION...ALSO NECESSITATING TEMPOS
AS WELL.
COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT PASS BEFORE 06Z TUESDAY...SO WILL NOT SEE
THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT IN THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH 18Z. MEDIUM AFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY
BOUNCES COULD LEAD TO TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS. MAY NEED PREVAILING
TSRA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/14/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNDER MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILING. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP FORECAST...
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
OK... WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVING E/SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OKC METRO. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED... OKDOT
TRAFFIC CAMS AND REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW LIGHT SNOW
FALLING... WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING NEAR 1 TO 1 1/2 MILES.
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT PATH OF SNOW... WITH -RA/SN
MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-44/40 CORRIDOR... CONSIDERING
SFC/BL TEMPS AND RECENT 15Z OBS FROM KCSM AND KHBR... REPORTING
UNKNOWN PRECIP. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW BL TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY
THROUGH NOON... WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS THE SFC HIGH ACROSS KS
CONTINUES TO SINK SWRD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. EFFECTS OF THIS ARE
ALREADY BEING SEEN ACROSS FAR NWRN OK.
PRECIP... SN... RA/SN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH... WHERE
A DECENT REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESIDES WITHIN THE 290-295K
LEVEL... SYNONYMOUS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE 850 TO 700
MB LEVEL. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH NOON...
AS THE H500 TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EWRD AND THE SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NRN HALF OF OK THIS AM.
CIG/VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR BRIEFLY AT NRN SITES AS THE HEAVIER PRCP
MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTN. STRONG N WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SNOW FROM TX PANHANDLE INTO NW CORNER OF THE FA CONTINUES
TO MOVE STEADILY EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DESPITE WARM GROUND TEMPS AND AIR TEMPS RIGHT AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX ADVY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. TEMP PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF BY AFTERNOON AS TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO ERN
OK. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LEAVE
WIND ADVY IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AND FREEZE/HARD FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES AND ANOTHER FRONT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 29 61 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 24 63 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 29 63 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 22 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 24 61 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 31 60 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>025-
027-033>038-044.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ026-028>032-
039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>089.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP FORECAST...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
OK... WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVING E/SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OKC METRO. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED... OKDOT
TRAFFIC CAMS AND REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW LIGHT SNOW
FALLING... WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING NEAR 1 TO 1 1/2 MILES.
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT PATH OF SNOW... WITH -RA/SN
MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-44/40 CORRIDOR... CONSIDERING
SFC/BL TEMPS AND RECENT 15Z OBS FROM KCSM AND KHBR... REPORTING
UNKNOWN PRECIP. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW BL TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY
THROUGH NOON... WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS THE SFC HIGH ACROSS KS
CONTINUES TO SINK SWRD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. EFFECTS OF THIS ARE
ALREADY BEING SEEN ACROSS FAR NWRN OK.
PRECIP... SN... RA/SN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH... WHERE
A DECENT REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESIDES WITHIN THE 290-295K
LEVEL... SYNONYMOUS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE 850 TO 700
MB LEVEL. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH NOON...
AS THE H500 TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EWRD AND THE SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NRN HALF OF OK THIS AM.
CIG/VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR BRIEFLY AT NRN SITES AS THE HEAVIER PRCP
MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTN. STRONG N WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SNOW FROM TX PANHANDLE INTO NW CORNER OF THE FA CONTINUES
TO MOVE STEADILY EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DESPITE WARM GROUND TEMPS AND AIR TEMPS RIGHT AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX ADVY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. TEMP PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF BY AFTERNOON AS TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO ERN
OK. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LEAVE
WIND ADVY IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AND FREEZE/HARD FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES AND ANOTHER FRONT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 29 61 39 / 90 0 0 0
HOBART OK 49 24 63 39 / 50 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 51 29 63 39 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 45 22 66 41 / 40 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 24 61 39 / 90 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 31 60 38 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>025-
027-033>038-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR OKZ004>031-033>041-
044>046-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004-
005-009-010-014.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ026-028>032-
039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ083>090.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ090.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING NE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY...BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS...EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW THOSE OF YESTERDAY
IN MOST AREAS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BEST RETURNS JUST REACHING THE OHIO/PA
BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE BETTER THE CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ALL SPLASH AROUND A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THE SREF/GEFS EVEN SHOW A DECENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP...THOUGH THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN ABOUT A TENTH ARE
PRETTY SMALL. THE HIGH RES NMM/ARW AND HRRR ALL KEEP THE BULK OF
THE FCST AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THEY ALSO AGREE ON
GENERATING A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING MY
WESTERN ZONES BY AROUND NIGHTFALL. SPC DOES NOT OUTLOOK US FOR
SEVERE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION INDICATED BY THE HIGH RES MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO RUN OUT OF GAS AS THEY
HEAD EAST AFTER THE SUN GOING DOWN. REGARDLESS WE WILL SEE
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANS THERE WILL BE
A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. IF THE FRONT IS
FAST...LOWS OVER THE NW COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN I CURRENTLY
PORTRAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE SAME
BIG TEMP BUST POTENTIAL OF TONIGHT. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOW A
VERY TIGHT PACKING OF THE COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO SMALL
TIMING PROBLEMS WILL MEAN RELATIVELY BIG TEMP SWINGS AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST.
A COUPLE OF OTHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND TO FORM...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH IF ANY
SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE WAVY COLD
FRONT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWINGS
THROUGH...WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THESE FRONTS TAKE ON STRONG
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AND
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS PROGGED 850-500MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 45-60KT MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
THEN THE...SNOW...YUK! COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...I AM THINKING THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MEANING THE
CHANGE- OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH IS USUALLY VITAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT A COATING TO A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN OUR HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GROWING SEASON TECHNICALLY STARTS TUESDAY OVER MY SERN ZONES.
AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE AGREED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT THE LOWS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT
TODAY.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LEAVING THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING LEADING THE WAY TO A FEW FAIR BUT ABNORMALLY CHILLY DAYS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS/SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO FCST TROUGHING OVER THE
N-CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A DRY AIRMASS KEEPING CONDITIONS
VFR. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST...NEAR LAKE MI.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS THE MAIN PLAYER AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT IS NOT REAL
ACTIVE AT THIS POINT.
VAD WINDS STILL 35 TO 40 KNOTS. HAVE LLWS IN TAFS.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET INTO
TUE. SOME CHC OF THUNDER...BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO DEWPOINTS NOT FCST
TO BE THAT HIGH...AND THE THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF OUR AREA.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED FROM TUE AFT...INTO WED AM.
VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED INTO FRIDAY LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...
-TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS...ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS.
.WED-THU...VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY...BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS...WE SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF YESTERDAY`S HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS.
THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE DAY THE BETTER THE CHANCE WILL BE FOR
A STRAY SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL
SPLASH AROUND A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
SREF/GEFS EVEN SHOW A DECENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLEPRECIP...THOUGH
THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN ABOUT A TENTH ARE PRETTY SMALL. THE
HIGH RES NMM/ARW AND HRRR ALL KEEP THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THEY ALSO AGREE ON GENERATING A
LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY
AROUND NIGHTFALL. SPC DOES NOT OUTLOOK US FOR SEVERE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION INDICATED BY THE HIGH RES MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO RUN OUT OF GAS AS THEY
HEAD EAST AFTER THE SUN GOING DOWN. REGARDLESS WE WILL SEE
OCCASIONALRAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANS THERE WILL BE
A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. IF THE FRONT IS
FAST...LOWS OVER THE NW COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN I CURRENTLY
PORTRAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE SAME
BIG TEMP BUST POTENTIAL OF TONIGHT. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOW A
VERY TIGHT PACKING OF THE COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO SMALL
TIMING PROBLEMS WILL MEAN RELATIVELY BIG TEMP SWINGS AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST.
A COUPLE OF OTHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND TO FORM...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH IF ANY
SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE WAVY COLD
FRONT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWINGS
THROUGH...WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THESE FRONTS TAKE ON STRONG
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AND
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS PROGGED 850-500MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 45-60KT MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
THEN THE...SNOW...YUK! COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...I AM THINKING THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MEANING THE
CHANGE- OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH IS USUALLY VITAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT A COATING TO A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN OUR HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GROWING SEASON TECHNICALLY STARTS TUESDAY OVER MY SERN ZONES.
AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE AGREED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT THE LOWS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT
TODAY.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LEAVING THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING LEADING THE WAY TO A FEW FAIR BUT ABNORMALLY CHILLY DAYS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS/SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO FCST TROUGHING OVER THE
N-CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A DRY AIRMASS KEEPING CONDITIONS
VFR. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST...NEAR LAKE MI.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS THE MAIN PLAYER AT THE CURRENT
TIME...AS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT IS NOT REAL
ACTIVE AT THIS POINT.
VAD WINDS STILL 35 TO 40 KNOTS. HAVE LLWS IN TAFS.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET INTO
TUE. SOME CHC OF THUNDER...BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO DEWPOINTS NOT FCST
TO BE THAT HIGH...AND THE THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST OF OUR AREA.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED FROM TUE AFT...INTO WED AM.
VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
WED INTO FRIDAY LOKKS OK AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...
-TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS...ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS.
.WED-THU...VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
542 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY...BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS...WE SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF YESTERDAY`S HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS.
THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE DAY THE BETTER THE CHANCE WILL BE FOR
A STRAY SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL
SPLASH AROUND A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
SREF/GEFS EVEN SHOW A DECENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLEPRECIP...THOUGH
THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN ABOUT A TENTH ARE PRETTY SMALL. THE
HIGH RES NMM/ARW AND HRRR ALL KEEP THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THEY ALSO AGREE ON GENERATING A
LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY
AROUND NIGHTFALL. SPC DOES NOT OUTLOOK US FOR SEVERE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION INDICATED BY THE HIGH RES MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO RUN OUT OF GAS AS THEY
HEAD EAST AFTER THE SUN GOING DOWN. REGARDLESS WE WILL SEE
OCCASIONALRAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANS THERE WILL BE
A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. IF THE FRONT IS
FAST...LOWS OVER THE NW COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN I CURRENTLY
PORTRAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE SAME
BIG TEMP BUST POTENTIAL OF TONIGHT. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOW A
VERY TIGHT PACKING OF THE COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO SMALL
TIMING PROBLEMS WILL MEAN RELATIVELY BIG TEMP SWINGS AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST.
A COUPLE OF OTHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND TO FORM...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH IF ANY
SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE WAVY COLD
FRONT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWINGS
THROUGH...WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THESE FRONTS TAKE ON STRONG
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AND
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS PROGGED 850-500MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 45-60KT MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
THEN THE...SNOW...YUK! COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...I AM THINKING THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MEANING THE
CHANGE- OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH IS USUALLY VITAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT A COATING TO A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN OUR HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GROWING SEASON TECHNICALLY STARTS TUESDAY OVER MY SERN ZONES.
AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE AGREED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT THE LOWS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT
TODAY.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LEAVING THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING LEADING THE WAY TO A FEW FAIR BUT ABNORMALLY CHILLY DAYS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS/SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO FCST TROUGHING OVER THE
N-CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS AS OF 5 AM.
HAVE LLWS IN ALL SITES FOR THIS MORNING.
MAINLY VFR TODAY. TOOK OUT LOWER CIGS AT LNS AND MDT
EARLIER...GIVEN FLOW IS MORE SW INSTEAD OF SE. ALSO
DEWPOINTS NOT REAL HIGH. BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE AFTER
SUNSET TODAY.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO 09Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL LOCATION TONIGHT. WHILE THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PRETTY MUCH PREVAIL MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA AIRFIELDS OF KMDT AND KLNS. THERE MAY BE SOME
OTHER PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AROUND OVERNIGHT AS WELL IN OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT SEEMS PATCHY ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN OTHER TAFS.
ADDITIONALLY...LLWS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TAFS TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE...GENERALLY REDUCING TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEALTHY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM THE WSW OVERNIGHT. IN WESTERN
AREAS...UPPER FLOW IS LIGHTER...MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR SO. THEREFORE
DID NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN KJST AND KBFD.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW...HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. DID INTRODUCE VCSH TO WESTERN AIRFIELDS...AND
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW.
THERE IS A RISK THAT SOME RESTRICTIONS MAY WORK INTO KBFD SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN. CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
.MON...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOWERING CLOUDS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE WEST CLOSE TO 00Z.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY ENDING AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS.
.WED-THU...VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
457 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY...BUT WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS...WE SHOULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF YESTERDAY`S HIGHS
IN MOST AREAS.
THE DEEPER WE GET INTO THE DAY THE BETTER THE CHANCE WILL BE FOR
A STRAY SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL
SPLASH AROUND A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
SREF/GEFS EVEN SHOW A DECENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLEPRECIP...THOUGH
THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN ABOUT A TENTH ARE PRETTY SMALL. THE
HIGH RES NMM/ARW AND HRRR ALL KEEP THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THEY ALSO AGREE ON GENERATING A
LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING MY WESTERN ZONES BY
AROUND NIGHTFALL. SPC DOES NOT OUTLOOK US FOR SEVERE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION INDICATED BY THE HIGH RES MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO RUN OUT OF GAS AS THEY
HEAD EAST AFTER THE SUN GOING DOWN. REGARDLESS WE WILL SEE
OCCASIONALRAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MEANS THERE WILL BE
A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW. IF THE FRONT IS
FAST...LOWS OVER THE NW COULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN I CURRENTLY
PORTRAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE SAME
BIG TEMP BUST POTENTIAL OF TONIGHT. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS SHOW A
VERY TIGHT PACKING OF THE COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SO SMALL
TIMING PROBLEMS WILL MEAN RELATIVELY BIG TEMP SWINGS AS THE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST.
A COUPLE OF OTHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND TO FORM...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH IF ANY
SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE ON THE COLD AIR SIDE OF THE WAVY COLD
FRONT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWINGS
THROUGH...WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THESE FRONTS TAKE ON STRONG
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION AND
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS PROGGED 850-500MB WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 45-60KT MIX DOWN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
THEN THE...SNOW...YUK! COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...I AM THINKING THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MEANING THE
CHANGE- OVER WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH IS USUALLY VITAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT A COATING TO A COUPLE OF SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN OUR HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GROWING SEASON TECHNICALLY STARTS TUESDAY OVER MY SERN ZONES.
AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE AGREED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT THE LOWS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT
TODAY.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LEAVING THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING LEADING THE WAY TO A FEW FAIR BUT ABNORMALLY CHILLY DAYS
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS/SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO FCST TROUGHING OVER THE
N-CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL LOCATION TONIGHT. WHILE THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PRETTY MUCH PREVAIL MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA AIRFIELDS OF KMDT AND KLNS. THERE MAY BE SOME
OTHER PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AROUND OVERNIGHT AS WELL IN OTHER
LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS POINT SEEMS PATCHY ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE
IN OTHER TAFS.
ADDITIONALLY...LLWS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TAFS TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE...GENERALLY REDUCING TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HEALTHY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM THE WSW OVERNIGHT. IN WESTERN
AREAS...UPPER FLOW IS LIGHTER...MAINLY 20 KNOTS OR SO. THEREFORE
DID NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN KJST AND KBFD.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST TOMORROW...HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. DID INTRODUCE VCSH TO WESTERN AIRFIELDS...AND
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW.
THERE IS A RISK THAT SOME RESTRICTIONS MAY WORK INTO KBFD SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
IN. CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
.MON...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOWERING CLOUDS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE WEST CLOSE TO 00Z.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY ENDING AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS.
.WED-THU...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BEHIND THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH CIGS REMAIN
BELOW 3 KFT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA, VERY LITTLE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS OCCURRING AS OF NOW. SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RADAR ECHOES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z, WITH IFR CIGS LASTING MOST
OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
UPDATE...COLD FRONT HAS NOSED INTO WESTERN KY, ALTHOUGH RADAR
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW INCREASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. HAVE UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST
AND DROPPED AFTERNOON POP`S TO THE "LIKELY" CATEGORY ALL AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MOST OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE EXITED MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH A DRY WEDGE NOW BUILDING IN THAT WILL KEEP US
ESSENTIALLY RAIN-FREE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 14Z LAPS SOUNDING
FOR BNA SHOWS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST WEST OF PAH, WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ERODING JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT. LIKEWISE, THE HRRR DOES SHOW
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR US, WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA TO OUR
SOUTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS... LOOKS LIKE MAIN SWATH OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS WILL MOVE E OF
MID STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH GENERALLY A BREAK
IN SHWRS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE SUITE OF
FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHWRS BEHIND MAIN BAND
JUST IN CASE OF SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THEN.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COME INTO PLAY WITHIN THE COLD
SECTOR BEHIND THE FROPA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...SHOWER CONDITIONS AND LOW CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CONVECTION STRENGTH TODAY...WINTRY MIX
POTENTIAL MAINLY NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE LATE TONIGHT...WIND
ADVISORY TODAY THRU TUE/FREEZE WATCH POTENTIAL WED MORNING...
AND TEMPS.
A LOT OF QUANDARIES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF...
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE THRU THE MID
STATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT LEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CKV AROUND 18Z AND MOVES TO JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE BY
00Z. SOME STRONG TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WHERE INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE THE GREATEST. WILL GO
CLOSE TO MOS VALUES FOR TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. FRONT SHOULD PUSH E OF PLATEAU BY 15/06Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN...WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...BUT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT OF THIS REGION
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 15/06Z...DO NOT FEEL AT THIS TIME CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO MENTION...AND BELIEVE ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS IS
NEEDED FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION. EXPECTING TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 40S ON TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. AS RIDGING
INFLUENCES BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED ACROSS THE MID STATE ON TUE
NIGHT...SKIES CLEAR...AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THUS...WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...AND WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO BE STRONG THROUGH 15/00Z...AND INCREASING
EVEN MORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 15/00Z-15/18Z...AND THEN
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING FROM 15/18Z-16/00Z...AND TO NOT CAUSE CONFUSION
BETWEEN SPS PRODUCT THAT NEEDS TO BE UPDATED...WILL BE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY THRU 16/00Z WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
THRU 15/00Z...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
40-45 MPH 15/00Z-15/18Z...AND GUSTS BACK TO 35 MPH BETWEEN
15/18Z-16/00Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THUS...AGAIN...WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND ALSO...AND WITH EXPECTED
TEMPS MAINLY BELOW 27 DEGREES...A HARD FREEZE IS BECOMING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY WED MORNING...AND THUS WILL BE ISSUING
A FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM CDT ON WED MORNING.
WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINDER OF WED
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE MID
STATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AGAIN APPROACHING SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES BY WEEKENDS END.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1128 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT HAS NOSED INTO WESTERN KY, ALTHOUGH RADAR
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW INCREASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. HAVE UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST
AND DROPPED AFTERNOON POP`S TO THE "LIKELY" CATEGORY ALL AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...MOST OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE EXITED MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH A DRY WEDGE NOW BUILDING IN THAT WILL KEEP US
ESSENTIALLY RAIN-FREE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 14Z LAPS SOUNDING
FOR BNA SHOWS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST WEST OF PAH, WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ERODING JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT. LIKEWISE, THE HRRR DOES SHOW
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR US, WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA TO OUR
SOUTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS... LOOKS LIKE MAIN SWATH OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS WILL MOVE E OF
MID STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH GENERALLY A BREAK
IN SHWRS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE SUITE OF
FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHWRS BEHIND MAIN BAND
JUST IN CASE OF SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THEN.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COME INTO PLAY WITHIN THE COLD
SECTOR BEHIND THE FROPA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...SHOWER CONDITIONS AND LOW CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CONVECTION STRENGTH TODAY...WINTRY MIX
POTENTIAL MAINLY NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE LATE TONIGHT...WIND
ADVISORY TODAY THRU TUE/FREEZE WATCH POTENTIAL WED MORNING...
AND TEMPS.
A LOT OF QUANDARIES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF...
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE THRU THE MID
STATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT LEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CKV AROUND 18Z AND MOVES TO JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE BY
00Z. SOME STRONG TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WHERE INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE THE GREATEST. WILL GO
CLOSE TO MOS VALUES FOR TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. FRONT SHOULD PUSH E OF PLATEAU BY 15/06Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN...WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...BUT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT OF THIS REGION
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 15/06Z...DO NOT FEEL AT THIS TIME CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO MENTION...AND BELIEVE ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS IS
NEEDED FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION. EXPECTING TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 40S ON TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. AS RIDGING
INFLUENCES BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED ACROSS THE MID STATE ON TUE
NIGHT...SKIES CLEAR...AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THUS...WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...AND WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO BE STRONG THROUGH 15/00Z...AND INCREASING
EVEN MORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 15/00Z-15/18Z...AND THEN
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING FROM 15/18Z-16/00Z...AND TO NOT CAUSE CONFUSION
BETWEEN SPS PRODUCT THAT NEEDS TO BE UPDATED...WILL BE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY THRU 16/00Z WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
THRU 15/00Z...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
40-45 MPH 15/00Z-15/18Z...AND GUSTS BACK TO 35 MPH BETWEEN
15/18Z-16/00Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THUS...AGAIN...WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND ALSO...AND WITH EXPECTED
TEMPS MAINLY BELOW 27 DEGREES...A HARD FREEZE IS BECOMING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY WED MORNING...AND THUS WILL BE ISSUING
A FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM CDT ON WED MORNING.
WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINDER OF WED
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE MID
STATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AGAIN APPROACHING SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES BY WEEKENDS END.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
940 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...MOST OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE EXITED MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH A DRY WEDGE NOW BUILDING IN THAT WILL KEEP US
ESSENTIALLY RAIN-FREE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 14Z LAPS SOUNDING
FOR BNA SHOWS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WITH A CAPPING
INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST WEST OF PAH, WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ERODING JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT. LIKEWISE, THE HRRR DOES SHOW
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR US, WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA TO OUR
SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
UPDATE...
PER CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS... LOOKS LIKE MAIN SWATH OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS WILL MOVE E OF
MID STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH GENERALLY A BREAK
IN SHWRS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE SUITE OF
FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHWRS BEHIND MAIN BAND
JUST IN CASE OF SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THEN.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COME INTO PLAY WITHIN THE COLD
SECTOR BEHIND THE FROPA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...SHOWER CONDITIONS AND LOW CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CONVECTION STRENGTH TODAY...WINTRY MIX
POTENTIAL MAINLY NW PORTIONS OF MID STATE LATE TONIGHT...WIND
ADVISORY TODAY THRU TUE/FREEZE WATCH POTENTIAL WED MORNING...
AND TEMPS.
A LOT OF QUANDARIES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF...
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOVE THRU THE MID
STATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT LEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CKV AROUND 18Z AND MOVES TO JUST EAST OF NASHVILLE BY
00Z. SOME STRONG TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WHERE INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE THE GREATEST. WILL GO
CLOSE TO MOS VALUES FOR TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. FRONT SHOULD PUSH E OF PLATEAU BY 15/06Z...WITH SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN...WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...BUT UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT OF THIS REGION
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 15/06Z...DO NOT FEEL AT THIS TIME CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO MENTION...AND BELIEVE ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS IS
NEEDED FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION. EXPECTING TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 40S ON TUE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. AS RIDGING
INFLUENCES BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED ACROSS THE MID STATE ON TUE
NIGHT...SKIES CLEAR...AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THUS...WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...AND WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO BE STRONG THROUGH 15/00Z...AND INCREASING
EVEN MORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 15/00Z-15/18Z...AND THEN
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING FROM 15/18Z-16/00Z...AND TO NOT CAUSE CONFUSION
BETWEEN SPS PRODUCT THAT NEEDS TO BE UPDATED...WILL BE ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY THRU 16/00Z WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
THRU 15/00Z...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
40-45 MPH 15/00Z-15/18Z...AND GUSTS BACK TO 35 MPH BETWEEN
15/18Z-16/00Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THUS...AGAIN...WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND ALSO...AND WITH EXPECTED
TEMPS MAINLY BELOW 27 DEGREES...A HARD FREEZE IS BECOMING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY WED MORNING...AND THUS WILL BE ISSUING
A FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM CDT ON WED MORNING.
WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINDER OF WED
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE MID
STATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AGAIN APPROACHING SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES BY WEEKENDS END.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1213 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN RACING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MIDDLE TN
THIS EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CROSSED FROM WEST TN INTO MIDDLE
TN AFTER 05Z WITH MORE POISED TO FOLLOW. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WERE ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT KCKV AREA AT 05Z...AND WILL
START IMPACTING KBNA AREA BY 06Z. PRECIP WILL SPREAD QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST...AND SHOULD APPROACH KCSV BY 10Z.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH STRETCHED FROM SE OK TO EASTERN
MO AT 05Z. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKER THAN FORECAST
EARLIER...AND MAY ARRIVE AT KCKV BEFORE 21Z...KBNA AFTER
21Z...AND KCSV AROUND THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE WITH THIS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY BUT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
UPDATE...
THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS TAKING ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE. WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...THE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH
DEVELOPMENT IS LESS ORGANIZED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE...THINK THIS WIND THREAT WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
I40 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF THE I65 CORRIDOR MAINLY IMPACTING OUR NW
COUNTIES.
STORM TOPS ARE NOT EXCEEDING 25KFT SO HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT...HOWEVER THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED EMBEDDED ROTATIONS WITH
ALL THE OF THE AVAILABLE SHEARING PRESENT. STILL OVER 50 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WHILE THOSE SHEAR VALUES
DECREASE ENTERING MIDDLE TN...STILL WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
EMBEDDED ROTATIONS THAT MAY RESULT DUE TO BOWING IN THE LINE. LCLS
ARE STILL VERY HIGH ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SO THAT
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR TORNADIC CHANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
UPDATE...
500 MB JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WHICH
IS LARGELY FUELING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN THE RUC TIME HEIGHT AND THE
00Z ROAB...SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS FROM ENTERING THE MID STATE BEFORE
06Z. THEREFORE...OPTED TO REMOVE POP CHANCES PRIOR TO 03Z AND ONLY
LEFT WESTERN AREAS IN SLGT CHC CATEGORY UNTIL 06Z. ALL SHORT RANGE
MODELS KEEP ANY QPF WEST OF THE TN RIVER UNTIL THAT POINT. POP
CHANCES RISE AFTER 06Z.
AS FOR TONIGHTS STORM SEVERITY POTENTIAL...CONVECTIVELY...THE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH CIN OVERCOMING CAPE ON THE RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...DYNAMICALLY
SPEAKING...A STOUT 850 MB LLJ AND 500 MB JET MAX SHOULD KEEP
THUNDER PLENTIFUL. GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE STILL BE MODERATE
WITH THE INITIAL STORMS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z IN THE WEST DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS OUT WEST. PLUS...SHEAR
VALUES WOULD HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER WIND POTENTIAL
SHOULD DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY SOON AFTER STORM ONSET AS THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS WITH THE HEALTHY QPF WE SHOULD RECEIVE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MID TN
THIS EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD MS VALLEY. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCEASE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW THAT
STARTS AT 08Z AT KCKV...AT 09Z AT KBNA AND AFTER 12Z AT KCSV.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. FRONT COULD MAKE IT
TO KCKV CLOSE TO 00Z TUE...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUE AT
KBNA/KCSV.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS TIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS UP TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO FAR WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT IN COLD FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO MARGINIALLY SEVERE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY. FROPA AT CLARKSVILLE MONDAY AROUND 18Z...AND
AROUND 23Z AT NASHVILLE AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE PLATEAU. WINDS PICK UP IN SPEED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MONDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. SHARPLY COLDER
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S BUT NO FROST
DUE TO WIND AND CLOUDS. BLUSTERY DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 40S. (THE LOWEST DAILY HIGH AT NASHVILLE FOR APRIL
15TH (TUESDAY) IS 46 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1903). FREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 28-32 DEGREES. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE 60S WITH DRY WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
CLIMATE...FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 28 TO 32 DEGREES. SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL
NEED TO BE PROTECTED. THE RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR APRIL 16TH
IS 28 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1988.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
49
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1112 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS TAKING ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE. WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...THE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH
DEVELOPMENT IS LESS ORGANIZED SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE...THINK THIS WIND THREAT WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
I40 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF THE I65 CORRIDOR MAINLY IMPACTING OUR NW
COUNTIES.
STORM TOPS ARE NOT EXCEEDING 25KFT SO HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT...HOWEVER THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED EMBEDDED ROTATIONS WITH
ALL THE OF THE AVAILABLE SHEARING PRESENT. STILL OVER 50 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WHILE THOSE SHEAR VALUES
DECREASE ENTERING MIDDLE TN...STILL WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
EMBEDDED ROTATIONS THAT MAY RESULT DUE TO BOWING IN THE LINE. LCLS
ARE STILL VERY HIGH ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SO THAT
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR TORNADIC CHANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
UPDATE...
500 MB JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WHICH
IS LARGELY FUELING THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN THE RUC TIME HEIGHT AND THE
00Z ROAB...SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS FROM ENTERING THE MID STATE BEFORE
06Z. THEREFORE...OPTED TO REMOVE POP CHANCES PRIOR TO 03Z AND ONLY
LEFT WESTERN AREAS IN SLGT CHC CATEGORY UNTIL 06Z. ALL SHORT RANGE
MODELS KEEP ANY QPF WEST OF THE TN RIVER UNTIL THAT POINT. POP
CHANCES RISE AFTER 06Z.
AS FOR TONIGHTS STORM SEVERITY POTENTIAL...CONVECTIVELY...THE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH CIN OVERCOMING CAPE ON THE RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...DYNAMICALLY
SPEAKING...A STOUT 850 MB LLJ AND 500 MB JET MAX SHOULD KEEP
THUNDER PLENTIFUL. GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE STILL BE MODERATE
WITH THE INITIAL STORMS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z IN THE WEST DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS OUT WEST. PLUS...SHEAR
VALUES WOULD HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER WIND POTENTIAL
SHOULD DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY SOON AFTER STORM ONSET AS THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS WITH THE HEALTHY QPF WE SHOULD RECEIVE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MID TN
THIS EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD MS VALLEY. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCEASE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD BE IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW THAT
STARTS AT 08Z AT KCKV...AT 09Z AT KBNA AND AFTER 12Z AT KCSV.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. FRONT COULD MAKE IT
TO KCKV CLOSE TO 00Z TUE...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUE AT
KBNA/KCSV.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS TIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS UP TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK INTO FAR WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT IN COLD FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO MARGINIALLY SEVERE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY. FROPA AT CLARKSVILLE MONDAY AROUND 18Z...AND
AROUND 23Z AT NASHVILLE AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE PLATEAU. WINDS PICK UP IN SPEED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY
MONDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. SHARPLY COLDER
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S BUT NO FROST
DUE TO WIND AND CLOUDS. BLUSTERY DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 40S. (THE LOWEST DAILY HIGH AT NASHVILLE FOR APRIL
15TH (TUESDAY) IS 46 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1903). FREEZE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 28-32 DEGREES. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE 60S WITH DRY WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
CLIMATE...FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 28 TO 32 DEGREES. SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL
NEED TO BE PROTECTED. THE RECORD LOW AT NASHVILLE FOR APRIL 16TH
IS 28 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1988.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1149 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z IN THE WACO AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS TO WAXAHACHIE TO PARIS LINE. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE WACO TAF THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE MVFR
CEILINGS OF 2500-3000 FEET WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...3500-4000 FEET
BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z AT THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY 23Z AND DOWN
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 02Z. NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5
KNOTS BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY 19Z TUESDAY AND
SOUTHWEST BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KILLEEN TO
ATHENS. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WITH
ELEVATED CORES OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG WITH
THE 850MB FRONT AND THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR COUNTIES FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WARRANTED BY TRENDS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AT
0830Z...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONG IN NATURE...AND AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE...IT IS ALL ELEVATED IN NATURE OVER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S
LOCATED OVER WICHITA FALLS. NORTH WINDS WERE ALREADY RELATIVELY
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS OBSERVING WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN COORDINATION WITH THE SPC AND WFO SHV AS THE COLD FRONT
HAD UNDERCUT ALL ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT/S
IMPOSSIBLE TO GET STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE ONLY
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
STORMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE FORM OF HAIL. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR
THESE ELEVATED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE NOT REALLY RELEVANT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
BULK OF THE CONTRIBUTION TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES OCCURS BELOW
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR CALCULATIONS INDICATE
ABOUT 60 KTS OF SHEAR...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE
REALISTICALLY AROUND 25 KTS. AS A RESULT...STRONG...BUT LIKELY
UNORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF STORMS SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING...CHANCES ARE NO LARGE HAIL WILL FALL ACROSS THE
CWA...HOWEVER IF IT DOES OCCUR...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 1
INCH OR QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE 850 MB FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING...TAKING ALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TODAY BECAUSE
THE MIDDLE TO LOW TROPOSPHERE WILL BE DEFINED BY HIGH STATIC
STABILITY. A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE LAYER RESISTS VERTICAL
MOTIONS...AND THEREFORE SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IT WOULD
BE A HUGE SURPRISE TO SEE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG AND COLD TO ALLOW FOR MUCH LIFT TO
OCCUR WHERE WE WOULD NEED IT TO GET RAIN SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE
MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
JUST SEE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SKIES CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
COLD...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING TOO HIGH FOR US NOT TO HEAT UP A
BIT EVEN WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. YES...YOU
READ THAT CORRECTLY...PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR A LATE FREEZE WHICH IS QUITE
REMARKABLE CONSIDERING RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE THE LATE 1800S
TO EARLY 1900S...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EVENT THAT HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF OVER 100 YEARS...FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT LEAST.
AS A RESULT...THIS FREEZE...ASSUMING IT OCCURS AS FORECAST...HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DO QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR PLANTS AS
MOST FOLKS WOULD NOT HAVE WAITED THIS LONG TO GET THEIR SPRING
PLANTING TAKEN CARE OF. AT ANY RATE...THIS IS WHY FREEZE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED...TO GIVE FOLKS A CHANCE TO PROTECT THEIR PLANTS.
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR
SPRINGS TO KELLER TO WACO TO LAMPASAS. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THIS LINE GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOWS AT 33 DEGREES...SO THIS
WARNING MAY BE EXPANDED BASED ON HOW WARM WE GET THIS AFTERNOON
AND BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORTUNATELY...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD SEE LOWS
FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY 30 TO 32 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30...NEAR THE RED RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN RURAL AREAS
MORE SO THAN URBAN AREAS. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONCRETED AREAS OF THE METROPLEX ABOVE FREEZING.
TARRANT COUNTY IS INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING ANYWAYS BECAUSE
THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...OUTSIDE OF THE
820 LOOP...ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE AFTER
10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING...SO
EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY BE
PRUDENT TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS ANYWAYS AS A PRECAUTION. THE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY...BUT
IT MAY BE BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL WARM UP AFTER TUESDAY...WITH
NO MORE POTENTIAL FROSTS OR FREEZES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT WORST. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING DEW POINTS BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BRINGING ABOUT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...THIS DOES
NOT USUALLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS USUALLY MAKES
PRECIPITATION ALONG COLD FRONTS ISOLATED AT BEST. THE CANADIAN IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THEREFORE HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH IN FUTURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION.
AFTER THURSDAY...OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TOWARDS NORTH TX AT THAT
TIME. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPPING INTO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE COURTESY OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET. AS A RESULT THE GFS GIVES THE CWA A
GOOD...WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE
YET...BUT IT IS A GOOD SIGN THAT AT LEAST ALL MODELS HAVE SOME
VERSION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THIS
CONSISTENT CONTINUES...POPS WILL BE INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SET UP FOR NOW...SO A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND OF COURSE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 34 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 56 33 63 36 67 / 30 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 51 30 59 36 64 / 20 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 53 29 62 38 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 53 30 62 38 65 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 56 35 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 55 33 62 37 65 / 20 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 54 33 61 38 66 / 30 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 58 33 64 36 68 / 30 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 55 32 63 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
58/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KILLEEN TO
ATHENS. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WITH
ELEVATED CORES OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG WITH
THE 850MB FRONT AND THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR COUNTIES FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WARRANTED BY TRENDS.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BECOMING LGT/VAR BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND
10KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DUNN
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR WAXAHACHIE...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE POPS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
IMMEDIATELY EAST AND SOUTH OF DALLAS. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TRENDS TO SEE IF AFTERNOON HIGHS NEED TO BE LOWERED AT ALL.
RECORD LOW MAX AT DFW IS 55 FOR TODAY...AND 56 AT WACO SO IT WILL
BE CLOSE.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AT
0830Z...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONG IN NATURE...AND AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE...IT IS ALL ELEVATED IN NATURE OVER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S
LOCATED OVER WICHITA FALLS. NORTH WINDS WERE ALREADY RELATIVELY
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS OBSERVING WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN COORDINATION WITH THE SPC AND WFO SHV AS THE COLD FRONT
HAD UNDERCUT ALL ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT/S
IMPOSSIBLE TO GET STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE ONLY
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
STORMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE FORM OF HAIL. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR
THESE ELEVATED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE NOT REALLY RELEVANT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
BULK OF THE CONTRIBUTION TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES OCCURS BELOW
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR CALCULATIONS INDICATE
ABOUT 60 KTS OF SHEAR...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE
REALISTICALLY AROUND 25 KTS. AS A RESULT...STRONG...BUT LIKELY
UNORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF STORMS SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING...CHANCES ARE NO LARGE HAIL WILL FALL ACROSS THE
CWA...HOWEVER IF IT DOES OCCUR...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 1
INCH OR QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE 850 MB FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING...TAKING ALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TODAY BECAUSE
THE MIDDLE TO LOW TROPOSPHERE WILL BE DEFINED BY HIGH STATIC
STABILITY. A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE LAYER RESISTS VERTICAL
MOTIONS...AND THEREFORE SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IT WOULD
BE A HUGE SURPRISE TO SEE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG AND COLD TO ALLOW FOR MUCH LIFT TO
OCCUR WHERE WE WOULD NEED IT TO GET RAIN SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE
MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
JUST SEE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SKIES CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
COLD...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING TOO HIGH FOR US NOT TO HEAT UP A
BIT EVEN WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. YES...YOU
READ THAT CORRECTLY...PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR A LATE FREEZE WHICH IS QUITE
REMARKABLE CONSIDERING RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE THE LATE 1800S
TO EARLY 1900S...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EVENT THAT HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF OVER 100 YEARS...FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT LEAST.
AS A RESULT...THIS FREEZE...ASSUMING IT OCCURS AS FORECAST...HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DO QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR PLANTS AS
MOST FOLKS WOULD NOT HAVE WAITED THIS LONG TO GET THEIR SPRING
PLANTING TAKEN CARE OF. AT ANY RATE...THIS IS WHY FREEZE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED...TO GIVE FOLKS A CHANCE TO PROTECT THEIR PLANTS.
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR
SPRINGS TO KELLER TO WACO TO LAMPASAS. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THIS LINE GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOWS AT 33 DEGREES...SO THIS
WARNING MAY BE EXPANDED BASED ON HOW WARM WE GET THIS AFTERNOON
AND BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORTUNATELY...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD SEE LOWS
FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY 30 TO 32 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30...NEAR THE RED RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN RURAL AREAS
MORE SO THAN URBAN AREAS. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONCRETED AREAS OF THE METROPLEX ABOVE FREEZING.
TARRANT COUNTY IS INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING ANYWAYS BECAUSE
THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...OUTSIDE OF THE
820 LOOP...ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE AFTER
10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING...SO
EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY BE
PRUDENT TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS ANYWAYS AS A PRECAUTION. THE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY...BUT
IT MAY BE BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL WARM UP AFTER TUESDAY...WITH
NO MORE POTENTIAL FROSTS OR FREEZES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT WORST. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING DEW POINTS BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BRINGING ABOUT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...THIS DOES
NOT USUALLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS USUALLY MAKES
PRECIPITATION ALONG COLD FRONTS ISOLATED AT BEST. THE CANADIAN IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THEREFORE HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH IN FUTURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION.
AFTER THURSDAY...OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TOWARDS NORTH TX AT THAT
TIME. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPPING INTO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE COURTESY OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET. AS A RESULT THE GFS GIVES THE CWA A
GOOD...WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE
YET...BUT IT IS A GOOD SIGN THAT AT LEAST ALL MODELS HAVE SOME
VERSION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THIS
CONSISTENT CONTINUES...POPS WILL BE INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SET UP FOR NOW...SO A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND OF COURSE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 34 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 56 33 63 36 67 / 30 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 51 30 59 36 64 / 20 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 53 29 62 38 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 53 30 62 38 65 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 56 35 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 55 33 62 37 65 / 20 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 54 33 61 38 66 / 30 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 58 33 64 36 68 / 30 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 55 32 63 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
58/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
842 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR WAXAHACHIE...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE POPS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
IMMEDIATELY EAST AND SOUTH OF DALLAS. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TRENDS TO SEE IF AFTERNOON HIGHS NEED TO BE LOWERED AT ALL.
RECORD LOW MAX AT DFW IS 55 FOR TODAY...AND 56 AT WACO SO IT WILL
BE CLOSE.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BECOMING LGT/VAR BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND
10KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AT
0830Z...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONG IN NATURE...AND AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE...IT IS ALL ELEVATED IN NATURE OVER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S
LOCATED OVER WICHITA FALLS. NORTH WINDS WERE ALREADY RELATIVELY
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS OBSERVING WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN COORDINATION WITH THE SPC AND WFO SHV AS THE COLD FRONT
HAD UNDERCUT ALL ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT/S
IMPOSSIBLE TO GET STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE ONLY
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
STORMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE FORM OF HAIL. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR
THESE ELEVATED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE NOT REALLY RELEVANT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
BULK OF THE CONTRIBUTION TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES OCCURS BELOW
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR CALCULATIONS INDICATE
ABOUT 60 KTS OF SHEAR...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE
REALISTICALLY AROUND 25 KTS. AS A RESULT...STRONG...BUT LIKELY
UNORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF STORMS SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING...CHANCES ARE NO LARGE HAIL WILL FALL ACROSS THE
CWA...HOWEVER IF IT DOES OCCUR...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 1
INCH OR QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE 850 MB FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING...TAKING ALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TODAY BECAUSE
THE MIDDLE TO LOW TROPOSPHERE WILL BE DEFINED BY HIGH STATIC
STABILITY. A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE LAYER RESISTS VERTICAL
MOTIONS...AND THEREFORE SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IT WOULD
BE A HUGE SURPRISE TO SEE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG AND COLD TO ALLOW FOR MUCH LIFT TO
OCCUR WHERE WE WOULD NEED IT TO GET RAIN SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE
MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
JUST SEE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SKIES CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
COLD...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING TOO HIGH FOR US NOT TO HEAT UP A
BIT EVEN WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. YES...YOU
READ THAT CORRECTLY...PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR A LATE FREEZE WHICH IS QUITE
REMARKABLE CONSIDERING RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE THE LATE 1800S
TO EARLY 1900S...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EVENT THAT HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF OVER 100 YEARS...FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT LEAST.
AS A RESULT...THIS FREEZE...ASSUMING IT OCCURS AS FORECAST...HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DO QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR PLANTS AS
MOST FOLKS WOULD NOT HAVE WAITED THIS LONG TO GET THEIR SPRING
PLANTING TAKEN CARE OF. AT ANY RATE...THIS IS WHY FREEZE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED...TO GIVE FOLKS A CHANCE TO PROTECT THEIR PLANTS.
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR
SPRINGS TO KELLER TO WACO TO LAMPASAS. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THIS LINE GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOWS AT 33 DEGREES...SO THIS
WARNING MAY BE EXPANDED BASED ON HOW WARM WE GET THIS AFTERNOON
AND BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORTUNATELY...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD SEE LOWS
FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY 30 TO 32 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30...NEAR THE RED RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN RURAL AREAS
MORE SO THAN URBAN AREAS. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONCRETED AREAS OF THE METROPLEX ABOVE FREEZING.
TARRANT COUNTY IS INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING ANYWAYS BECAUSE
THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...OUTSIDE OF THE
820 LOOP...ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE AFTER
10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING...SO
EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY BE
PRUDENT TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS ANYWAYS AS A PRECAUTION. THE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY...BUT
IT MAY BE BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL WARM UP AFTER TUESDAY...WITH
NO MORE POTENTIAL FROSTS OR FREEZES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT WORST. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING DEW POINTS BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BRINGING ABOUT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...THIS DOES
NOT USUALLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS USUALLY MAKES
PRECIPITATION ALONG COLD FRONTS ISOLATED AT BEST. THE CANADIAN IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THEREFORE HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH IN FUTURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION.
AFTER THURSDAY...OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TOWARDS NORTH TX AT THAT
TIME. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPPING INTO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE COURTESY OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET. AS A RESULT THE GFS GIVES THE CWA A
GOOD...WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE
YET...BUT IT IS A GOOD SIGN THAT AT LEAST ALL MODELS HAVE SOME
VERSION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THIS
CONSISTENT CONTINUES...POPS WILL BE INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SET UP FOR NOW...SO A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND OF COURSE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 34 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 56 33 63 36 67 / 20 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 51 30 59 36 64 / 10 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 53 29 62 38 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 53 30 62 38 65 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 56 35 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 55 33 62 37 65 / 20 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 54 33 61 38 66 / 30 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 58 33 64 36 68 / 30 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 55 32 63 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
58/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BECOMING LGT/VAR BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN SOUTHERLY AROUND
10KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AT
0830Z...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONG IN NATURE...AND AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE...IT IS ALL ELEVATED IN NATURE OVER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S
LOCATED OVER WICHITA FALLS. NORTH WINDS WERE ALREADY RELATIVELY
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS OBSERVING WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN COORDINATION WITH THE SPC AND WFO SHV AS THE COLD FRONT
HAD UNDERCUT ALL ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT/S
IMPOSSIBLE TO GET STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE ONLY
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
STORMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE FORM OF HAIL. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR
THESE ELEVATED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE NOT REALLY RELEVANT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
BULK OF THE CONTRIBUTION TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES OCCURS BELOW
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR CALCULATIONS INDICATE
ABOUT 60 KTS OF SHEAR...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE
REALISTICALLY AROUND 25 KTS. AS A RESULT...STRONG...BUT LIKELY
UNORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF STORMS SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING...CHANCES ARE NO LARGE HAIL WILL FALL ACROSS THE
CWA...HOWEVER IF IT DOES OCCUR...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 1
INCH OR QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE 850 MB FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING...TAKING ALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TODAY BECAUSE
THE MIDDLE TO LOW TROPOSPHERE WILL BE DEFINED BY HIGH STATIC
STABILITY. A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE LAYER RESISTS VERTICAL
MOTIONS...AND THEREFORE SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IT WOULD
BE A HUGE SURPRISE TO SEE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG AND COLD TO ALLOW FOR MUCH LIFT TO
OCCUR WHERE WE WOULD NEED IT TO GET RAIN SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE
MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
JUST SEE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SKIES CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
COLD...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING TOO HIGH FOR US NOT TO HEAT UP A
BIT EVEN WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. YES...YOU
READ THAT CORRECTLY...PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR A LATE FREEZE WHICH IS QUITE
REMARKABLE CONSIDERING RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE THE LATE 1800S
TO EARLY 1900S...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EVENT THAT HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF OVER 100 YEARS...FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT LEAST.
AS A RESULT...THIS FREEZE...ASSUMING IT OCCURS AS FORECAST...HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DO QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR PLANTS AS
MOST FOLKS WOULD NOT HAVE WAITED THIS LONG TO GET THEIR SPRING
PLANTING TAKEN CARE OF. AT ANY RATE...THIS IS WHY FREEZE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED...TO GIVE FOLKS A CHANCE TO PROTECT THEIR PLANTS.
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR
SPRINGS TO KELLER TO WACO TO LAMPASAS. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THIS LINE GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOWS AT 33 DEGREES...SO THIS
WARNING MAY BE EXPANDED BASED ON HOW WARM WE GET THIS AFTERNOON
AND BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORTUNATELY...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD SEE LOWS
FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY 30 TO 32 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30...NEAR THE RED RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN RURAL AREAS
MORE SO THAN URBAN AREAS. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONCRETED AREAS OF THE METROPLEX ABOVE FREEZING.
TARRANT COUNTY IS INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING ANYWAYS BECAUSE
THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...OUTSIDE OF THE
820 LOOP...ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE AFTER
10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING...SO
EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY BE
PRUDENT TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS ANYWAYS AS A PRECAUTION. THE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY...BUT
IT MAY BE BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL WARM UP AFTER TUESDAY...WITH
NO MORE POTENTIAL FROSTS OR FREEZES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT WORST. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING DEW POINTS BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BRINGING ABOUT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...THIS DOES
NOT USUALLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS USUALLY MAKES
PRECIPITATION ALONG COLD FRONTS ISOLATED AT BEST. THE CANADIAN IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THEREFORE HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH IN FUTURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION.
AFTER THURSDAY...OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TOWARDS NORTH TX AT THAT
TIME. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPPING INTO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE COURTESY OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET. AS A RESULT THE GFS GIVES THE CWA A
GOOD...WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE
YET...BUT IT IS A GOOD SIGN THAT AT LEAST ALL MODELS HAVE SOME
VERSION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THIS
CONSISTENT CONTINUES...POPS WILL BE INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SET UP FOR NOW...SO A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND OF COURSE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 34 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 56 33 63 36 67 / 20 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 51 30 59 36 64 / 20 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 53 29 62 38 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 53 30 62 38 65 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 56 35 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 55 33 62 37 65 / 20 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 54 33 61 38 66 / 20 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 58 33 64 36 68 / 30 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 55 32 63 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
417 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS OBSERVED...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AT
0830Z...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS STRONG IN NATURE...AND AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE...IT IS ALL ELEVATED IN NATURE OVER THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S
LOCATED OVER WICHITA FALLS. NORTH WINDS WERE ALREADY RELATIVELY
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS OBSERVING WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN COORDINATION WITH THE SPC AND WFO SHV AS THE COLD FRONT
HAD UNDERCUT ALL ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS DOES NOT MEAN IT/S
IMPOSSIBLE TO GET STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE ONLY
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
STORMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE FORM OF HAIL. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE FOR
THESE ELEVATED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE NOT REALLY RELEVANT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS THE
BULK OF THE CONTRIBUTION TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES OCCURS BELOW
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR CALCULATIONS INDICATE
ABOUT 60 KTS OF SHEAR...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE
REALISTICALLY AROUND 25 KTS. AS A RESULT...STRONG...BUT LIKELY
UNORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF STORMS SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING...CHANCES ARE NO LARGE HAIL WILL FALL ACROSS THE
CWA...HOWEVER IF IT DOES OCCUR...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 1
INCH OR QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE 850 MB FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING...TAKING ALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TODAY BECAUSE
THE MIDDLE TO LOW TROPOSPHERE WILL BE DEFINED BY HIGH STATIC
STABILITY. A THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE LAYER RESISTS VERTICAL
MOTIONS...AND THEREFORE SHOULD PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IT WOULD
BE A HUGE SURPRISE TO SEE SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP OVER THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG AND COLD TO ALLOW FOR MUCH LIFT TO
OCCUR WHERE WE WOULD NEED IT TO GET RAIN SHOWERS...THAT BEING THE
MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
JUST SEE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SKIES CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
COLD...THE SUN ANGLE IS GETTING TOO HIGH FOR US NOT TO HEAT UP A
BIT EVEN WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY DUE TO NORTH WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NEARLY CALM WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. YES...YOU
READ THAT CORRECTLY...PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS PUSHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR A LATE FREEZE WHICH IS QUITE
REMARKABLE CONSIDERING RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE THE LATE 1800S
TO EARLY 1900S...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EVENT THAT HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF OVER 100 YEARS...FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT LEAST.
AS A RESULT...THIS FREEZE...ASSUMING IT OCCURS AS FORECAST...HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO DO QUITE A BIT OF DAMAGE TO OUTDOOR PLANTS AS
MOST FOLKS WOULD NOT HAVE WAITED THIS LONG TO GET THEIR SPRING
PLANTING TAKEN CARE OF. AT ANY RATE...THIS IS WHY FREEZE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED...TO GIVE FOLKS A CHANCE TO PROTECT THEIR PLANTS.
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SULPHUR
SPRINGS TO KELLER TO WACO TO LAMPASAS. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THIS LINE GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST LOWS AT 33 DEGREES...SO THIS
WARNING MAY BE EXPANDED BASED ON HOW WARM WE GET THIS AFTERNOON
AND BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORTUNATELY...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD SEE LOWS
FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY 30 TO 32 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S IS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30...NEAR THE RED RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN RURAL AREAS
MORE SO THAN URBAN AREAS. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE CONCRETED AREAS OF THE METROPLEX ABOVE FREEZING.
TARRANT COUNTY IS INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING ANYWAYS BECAUSE
THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...OUTSIDE OF THE
820 LOOP...ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE AFTER
10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING...SO
EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME...IT MAY BE
PRUDENT TO PROTECT YOUR PLANTS ANYWAYS AS A PRECAUTION. THE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT LIKELY...BUT
IT MAY BE BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL WARM UP AFTER TUESDAY...WITH
NO MORE POTENTIAL FROSTS OR FREEZES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...BUT
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT WORST. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING DEW POINTS BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BRINGING ABOUT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THIS VERIFIES...THIS DOES
NOT USUALLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS USUALLY MAKES
PRECIPITATION ALONG COLD FRONTS ISOLATED AT BEST. THE CANADIAN IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND THEREFORE HAS MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH IN FUTURE FORECASTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW JUST KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION.
AFTER THURSDAY...OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TOWARDS NORTH TX AT THAT
TIME. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPPING INTO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE COURTESY OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET. AS A RESULT THE GFS GIVES THE CWA A
GOOD...WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE
YET...BUT IT IS A GOOD SIGN THAT AT LEAST ALL MODELS HAVE SOME
VERSION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THIS
CONSISTENT CONTINUES...POPS WILL BE INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A GOOD SEVERE
WEATHER SET UP FOR NOW...SO A GOOD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND OF COURSE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 34 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
WACO, TX 56 33 63 36 67 / 20 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 51 30 59 36 64 / 20 5 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 53 29 62 38 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 53 30 62 38 65 / 10 5 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 56 35 63 42 66 / 10 5 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 55 33 62 37 65 / 20 5 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 54 33 61 38 66 / 20 5 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 58 33 64 36 68 / 30 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 55 32 63 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>118-129>133-141>145-156-157-159.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT MONDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR APPEARS TO
HANDLE THINGS WELL IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS MEANS LESS THREAT OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...THEN SHOWERS INCREASE BY AFTER 3-5PM
AHEAD OF VORT OVER NRN GA EARLY. THUNDER SITUATION STILL MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS FOR ISOLATED THREAT
MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CWA.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
CUT HIGH TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PER LACK
OF SUN AND SHOWERS MOVING IN.
MUCH BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AFTER 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK...ADDING THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE STRONG
FORCING. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE 12Z/8AM. STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
HAVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SEVERAL THINGS
TO KEEP AN EYE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY 55KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL...RESULTING IN MAINLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
JET BLOWING JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY DRAW THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...
RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH ALMOST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOUND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. THESE GUSTS...WHEN COMBINED WITH PROLONGED RAINFALL...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES...AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES.
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A STORM TOTAL
AMOUNT OF OVER AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MAY SEE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN PASS REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME RIVERS TO
BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AT A RATE OF 6 TO 9 DEGREES PER HOUR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WHILE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO MELT ON CONTACT ACROSS MANY AREAS...MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATE ALONG OUR MORE PROMINENT WEST FACING SLOPES BEFORE
SNOW SHOWERS END OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WE GET TO DEAL WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY PLANTS THAT MAY BE KILLED
BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK TO MVFR THEN IFR THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
SHOULD DROP TO HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR. A TSRA IS POSSIBLE BUT
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE/THREAT OVERALL TO HAVE IN TAFS.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WEST AND FINALLY EXIT EAST OF
THE MTNS BY 15Z TUESDAY...AND OUT EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
MODERATE SHOWERS AND AT TIMES HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. ON AVERAGE
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE IN IFR/MVFR. ONCE FRONT PASSES THE BLF AREA
SHOULD SEE LOWER CIGS UPSLOPE EFFECT...AND INTO LWB AS WELL WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CIGS BELOW 5H FEET.
EXPECT RAINS AND SOME THUNDER TO LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN FAST IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SMALL WINDOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAY SEE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY KEEPING MVFR CIGS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY
FOR NOW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT MONDAY...
RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NE TN/FAR SW VA AND NW
NC. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA INTO MS
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL TN INTO CENTRAL
KY. 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THEIR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
RISK TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. NOT IMPRESSED WITH THUNDER CHANCES
GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUDS IN PLACE BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WITH THE
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO NC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST HRRR WHICH IS HANDLING SHOWERS OR LACK
THEREOF OUT THERE NOW...WILL BACK OFF ON HIGHER POPS FOR ABOUT 1-2
HOURS IN THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 19Z/3PM. WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.
CUT HIGH TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS PER LACK OF
SUN AND SHOWERS MOVING IN.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
MUCH BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AFTER 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK...ADDING THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE STRONG
FORCING. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE 12Z/8AM. STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
HAVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SEVERAL THINGS
TO KEEP AN EYE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY 55KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL...RESULTING IN MAINLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
JET BLOWING JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY DRAW THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...
RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH ALMOST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOUND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. THESE GUSTS...WHEN COMBINED WITH PROLONGED RAINFALL...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES...AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES.
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A STORM TOTAL
AMOUNT OF OVER AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MAY SEE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN PASS REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME RIVERS TO
BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AT A RATE OF 6 TO 9 DEGREES PER HOUR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WHILE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO MELT ON CONTACT ACROSS MANY AREAS...MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATE ALONG OUR MORE PROMINENT WEST FACING SLOPES BEFORE
SNOW SHOWERS END OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WE GET TO DEAL WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY PLANTS THAT MAY BE KILLED
BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS HAD FILLED IN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING KDAN AND KROA TO GO IN AND OUT OF MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH 15Z/11AM.
MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE
REGION MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIMITED THREAT OF ANY
THUNDER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR AND
NOT LOWER AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 05Z/1AM
TUESDAY. THIS RAIN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
LOOKS WET THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE
AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE
DAY FOR NOW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
735 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW INTO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH
THE TENNESSE VALLEY. THICK CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM THE WEST. SHORT RANGE MODELS
INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC/WRF AND HRRR BRING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 18Z/2PM.
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INSTABILITY. BUFKIT
OFF THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW CAPE VALUES TODAY. HELD PROBABILITY
OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHORT WAVE...WITH THE BETTER
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON. HIGH TODAY WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT ONLY A SMALL RISE FROM THE CURRENT MILD
TEMPERATURES.
MUCH BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AFTER 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK...ADDING THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE STRONG
FORCING. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE 12Z/8AM. STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY HAVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SEVERAL THINGS
TO KEEP AN EYE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY 55KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL...RESULTING IN MAINLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
JET BLOWING JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY DRAW THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...
RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH ALMOST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOUND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. THESE GUSTS...WHEN COMBINED WITH PROLONGED RAINFALL...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES...AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES.
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A STORM TOTAL
AMOUNT OF OVER AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MAY SEE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN PASS REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME RIVERS TO
BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AT A RATE OF 6 TO 9 DEGREES PER HOUR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WHILE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO MELT ON CONTACT ACROSS MANY AREAS...MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATE ALONG OUR MORE PROMINENT WEST FACING SLOPES BEFORE
SNOW SHOWERS END OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WE GET TO DEAL WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY PLANTS THAT MAY BE KILLED
BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS HAD FILLED IN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING KDAN AND KROA TO GO IN AND OUT OF MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH 15Z/11AM.
MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS THE
REGION MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM. WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIMITED THREAT OF ANY
THUNDER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR AND
NOT LOWER AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 05Z/1AM
TUESDAY. THIS RAIN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
LOOKS WET THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT OFFSHORE
AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE
DAY FOR NOW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
455 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW INTO TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH
THE TENNESSE VALLEY. THICK CLOUD COVER WAS ALREADY SPREADING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM THE WEST. SHORT RANGE MODELS
INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC/WRF AND HRRR BRING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 18Z/2PM.
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INSTABILITY. BUFKIT
OFF THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW CAPE VALUES TODAY. HELD PROBABILITY
OF THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHORT WAVE...WITH THE BETTER
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH NOON. HIGH TODAY WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT ONLY A SMALL RISE FROM THE CURRENT MILD
TEMPERATURES.
MUCH BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AFTER 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK...ADDING THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE STRONG
FORCING. LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRONT DOES NOT REACH THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE 12Z/8AM. STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAY HAVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE SEVERAL THINGS
TO KEEP AN EYE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY 55KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL...RESULTING IN MAINLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
JET BLOWING JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY DRAW THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...
RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH ALMOST MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOUND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. THESE GUSTS...WHEN COMBINED WITH PROLONGED RAINFALL...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES...AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED
POWER OUTAGES.
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH A STORM TOTAL
AMOUNT OF OVER AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH AROUND 2
INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. MAY SEE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP WHERE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN PASS REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL MAY ALSO PUSH SOME RIVERS TO
BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AT A RATE OF 6 TO 9 DEGREES PER HOUR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH FREEZING FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WHILE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW
TO MELT ON CONTACT ACROSS MANY AREAS...MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATE ALONG OUR MORE PROMINENT WEST FACING SLOPES BEFORE
SNOW SHOWERS END OFF SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WE GET TO DEAL WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY PLANTS THAT MAY BE KILLED
BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPCGUIDE FOR POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN WITH HANDLING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL FORM
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE 12Z. THERE IS
A LOW POSSIBILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL EVEN DROP TO IFR AT KBCB
BEFORE 12Z.
MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS
THE REGION MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z/11AM AND 21Z/5PM. WITH ALL THE
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIMITED THREAT
OF ANY THUNDER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
VFR AND NOT LOWER AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z/8AM
TUESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ADDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL IN UNTIL
AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAFS.
LOOKS WET TUESDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1220 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA ACROSS THE AREA INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLDER
AIR HAS FILTERED IN AND CHANGED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE 14.05Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. IT INDICATES THAT BY 12Z THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN IOWA WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE WESTERN EDGE INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF WISCONSIN. WILL ADJUST THE MORNING SNOW CHANCES
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z AND THEN WHAT
IT IS LEFT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LINGER
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE
30S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND THEN IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START TO COME IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE WAVE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
INTO WISCONSIN. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 UBAR/S
OF UP GLIDE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. WITH THE FORCING FROM
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE...EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL START OUT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD THE
CHANCES SOUTH TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WEDNESDAY WHILE
INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS AND THERE SHOULD
NOT BE A WARM LAYER TO DEAL WITH...SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE CONTROLLED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. WILL
START WITH ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT GOING TO RAIN WEDNESDAY AS
READINGS WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
SLOW AND COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL THE MODELS
SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN CANADA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE CLOSED LOW
SHOULD THEN OPEN UP AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH PASSING OVER FOR THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT GOING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
LOWER CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH THE MVFR/VFR THRESH-HOLD HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
CLEARING THE TAF SITES THRU THE MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE SOUTHEAST OF
THE TAF SITES BY 19-20Z...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT/
TUE MORNING AS COLD/DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU MID AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BY OR AFTER 23Z AS
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MIXED
DEPTH DECREASES AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS AND
RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY IN BANK
RISES BUT THE LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE KICKAPOO IN THE VICINITY OF READSTOWN. SOME
FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWMELT UPSTREAM AND THE RECENT RAINS MOVES
DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
644 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA ACROSS THE AREA INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLDER
AIR HAS FILTERED IN AND CHANGED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE 14.05Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. IT INDICATES THAT BY 12Z THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN IOWA WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE WESTERN EDGE INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF WISCONSIN. WILL ADJUST THE MORNING SNOW CHANCES
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z AND THEN WHAT
IT IS LEFT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LINGER
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE
30S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND THEN IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START TO COME IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE WAVE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
INTO WISCONSIN. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 UBAR/S
OF UP GLIDE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. WITH THE FORCING FROM
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE...EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL START OUT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD THE
CHANCES SOUTH TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WEDNESDAY WHILE
INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS AND THERE SHOULD
NOT BE A WARM LAYER TO DEAL WITH...SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE CONTROLLED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. WILL
START WITH ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT GOING TO RAIN WEDNESDAY AS
READINGS WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
SLOW AND COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL THE MODELS
SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN CANADA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE CLOSED LOW
SHOULD THEN OPEN UP AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH PASSING OVER FOR THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT GOING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
NOW THAT THE SNOW HAS EXITED EAST OF THE AREA...MAIN CONCERN TURNS
TO WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. LOOKING FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO SCATTER KRST
BY 13Z AND KLSE BY 15Z...LEAVING A VFR CIG OF MID-
CLOUD/ALTOCUMULUS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE CUMULUS WITH VFR BASES IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE. LOOK FOR
THIS TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...PLAN ON
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KT. THIS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS AND
RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY IN BANK
RISES BUT THE LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE KICKAPOO IN THE VICINITY OF READSTOWN. SOME
FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWMELT UPSTREAM AND THE RECENT RAINS MOVES
DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA ACROSS THE AREA INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLDER
AIR HAS FILTERED IN AND CHANGED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE 14.05Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. IT INDICATES THAT BY 12Z THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN IOWA WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THE WESTERN EDGE INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF WISCONSIN. WILL ADJUST THE MORNING SNOW CHANCES
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...BUT EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z AND THEN WHAT
IT IS LEFT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LINGER
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE
30S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND THEN IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START TO COME IN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE WAVE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME WEAK PV
ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
INTO WISCONSIN. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 UBAR/S
OF UP GLIDE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. WITH THE FORCING FROM
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE...EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL START OUT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD THE
CHANCES SOUTH TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER WEDNESDAY WHILE
INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS AND THERE SHOULD
NOT BE A WARM LAYER TO DEAL WITH...SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE CONTROLLED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. WILL
START WITH ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT GOING TO RAIN WEDNESDAY AS
READINGS WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
SLOW AND COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES PAST THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL THE MODELS
SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FROM A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN CANADA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE CLOSED LOW
SHOULD THEN OPEN UP AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH PASSING OVER FOR THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE
MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT GOING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN WAINING. COLUMN HAS BEEN COOLING AS WELL ALLOWING RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING WITH LESS LIFR AND MORE MVFR BEING OBSERVED AROUND
THE AREA.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO END. BEFORE THEN
COULD SEE A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOP AND BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF
SNOW TO KRST BEFORE ENDING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND THEN AS SYSTEM EXITS...COULD SEE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A BIT UNSURE ON WHAT CLOUDS WILL DO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MID APRIL SUN
BUT AM BANKING THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND WILL BE ABOUT IT. STIFF
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE AS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS BY
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS AND
RUNOFF INTO AREAS STREAMS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY IN BANK
RISES BUT THE LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE KICKAPOO IN THE VICINITY OF READSTOWN. SOME
FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWMELT UPSTREAM AND THE RECENT RAINS MOVES
DOWNSTREAM.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
BUSY PERIOD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HEAVY RAIN...SNOW...AND STRONG
WINDS ARE ALL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CURRENTLY...THE LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED WARM
FRONT THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP IN THE REGION. MOST
OF THE 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT THE 13.19Z RAP SHOWS STAYS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND DOES NOT REACH THE REGION. SO...THINKING THAT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THIS RAIN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN STILL FORECAST FOR THE SAME
AREAS THAT WERE HIT BY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...HAVE KEPT
THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WE GO WHERE THE CONCERN IS ON WHEN
THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH HOW WINDY IT WILL BE. IN REGARD TO THE
SNOW...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON WHAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE. LOOKING OUT WEST
RIGHT NOW...MOST OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING SNOW ARE IN THE
30F TO 35F RANGE THOUGH SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURE DROPS APPEAR TO
BE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING THANKS TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH THE COLUMN. BASED ON THE 13.19Z RAP & 13.12Z NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANGE OVER SHOULD OCCUR TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 8-10PM IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS CHANGE OVER WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SNOW TOTALS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS A
RESULT SINCE A LOT HINGES ON HOW FAST THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...IS
THERE STRONG FORCING STILL THERE AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND
ALSO IF THERE EVEN IS ICE THERE AS A LOT OF THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER BETWEEN -8C TO -20C. MOST OF THE 13.12Z COBB DATA FROM
THE NAM/GFS IS SHOWING ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCURRING OVERNIGHT
THOUGH A LOT OF THE SREF DATA IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT. GIVEN THE
NUMBER OF NEGATIVES WORKING AGAINST THIS...TRENDED TOWARD THESE
LOWER TOTALS WHICH STILL ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT PREVIOUSLY WAS
BEING FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. THE MAIN SNOW SHOULD FALL BETWEEN
7PM-1AM IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN BETWEEN
1AM-7AM IN WESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHEAST IOWA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH THE LOW. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE 30 TO 40KT WINDS
ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE AREA WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. CONCERNED
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST IOWA WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME 35 TO 40KT WINDS MIXING DOWN AS THE SNOW IS COMING
DOWN. DISCUSSED THE IDEA OF DOING A WINTER WEATHER OR WIND ADVISORY
WITH MPX/DMX...BUT DECIDED THAT THE WIND GUSTS MAY NOT HIT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A LARGE IMPACT. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS
EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE QUICK UPGRADE WITH THE 9PM TO 3AM TIME
FRAME THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORIES THROUGH THIS WEEK ARE WITH THE POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER IN THE WEEK.
MORE FOCUS WENT INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SINCE
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE
13.12Z NAM/GFS DEVELOPS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 13.12Z ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE NAM/GFS SCENARIOS THOUGH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE THANKS TO THE ECMWF. IT LOOKS LIKE WE GET
WARM SECTORED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM STALLS OUT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SETTING UP FROM UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
IOWA ON THURSDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS THEN SPINS UP A POTENT SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY THAT TRACKS THROUGH WISCONSIN WHILE EH ECMWF HARDLY HAS A
LOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN WAINING. COLUMN HAS BEEN COOLING AS WELL ALLOWING RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING WITH LESS LIFR AND MORE MVFR BEING OBSERVED AROUND
THE AREA.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO END. BEFORE THEN
COULD SEE A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOP AND BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF
SNOW TO KRST BEFORE ENDING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND THEN AS SYSTEM EXITS...COULD SEE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
A BIT UNSURE ON WHAT CLOUDS WILL DO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES IN. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MID APRIL SUN
BUT AM BANKING THAT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND WILL BE ABOUT IT. STIFF
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE AS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS BY
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN FALLING INTO TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THIS AREA AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...SAW NO NEED TO DROP
IT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH INSTABILITY THAT MAKES IT UP
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SO MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD NOT FALL AT A GREAT ENOUGH OF A RATE TO PROMPT FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ043-044-053>055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...SHEA
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1137 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
WENT AHEAD AND LET THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE AT 11 PM THIS
EVENING. LATEST RADAR SHOWING ONLY LIGHT RETURNS WITH THE AERIAL
COVERAGE SHRINKING FAIRLY QUICKLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED WINTER HEADLINES FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING. HAVE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON IR IMAGERY. MAY NOT LAST THROUGH 11
PM...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE EASING SOME. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT SNOW COULD LAST LONGER. WILL RE-EVALUATE IN A
COUPLE HOURS. DID GO AHEAD AND EXPIRE OUR NORTHERN WINTER
HEADLINES AS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SNOW COVERAGE DECREASING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
SATELLITE PIX SHOW WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION SPINNING THRU UTAH
WITH A JET STREAK BEGINNING TO ROUND ITS BASE. THE RELATIVE LULL
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WAS A RESULT OF A BREAK
BETWEEN A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE NEXT ONE OVR UTAH. AT 20Z...THE NEXT LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUD-
TOPS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER SRN ALBANY AND LARAMIE
COUNTIES...WITH SIMILAR TRENDS NOTICED ON KCYS 88D RETURNS. SO
WILL SEE SNOW RATES PICK UP AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME SE
WYOMING THRU AT LEAST SUNSET. AS WAS FEARED...THE HIGH APRIL SUN-
ANGLE HAS RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL MELTING ON AREA ROADWAYS...
WHICH HAS LESSENED IMPACT SOME. HOWEVER A FEW ROAD CLOSURES HAVE
OCCURRED ALONG PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 80. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE UNCHANGED FOR NOW AND CONTINUE
TO RE-EVALUATE TRENDS THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER SNOW INTO THIS EVENING... HOWEVER RATES
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS AS BEST LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH OUT OF THE CWFA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS THEN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WITH LOW 20S OVR
THE PANHANDLE.
HEIGHTS BUILD RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY...YIELDING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SOME ON MONDAY TOO...ALTHOUGH WILL BE TEMPERED BY TODAYS SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
TUESDAY...QUICK WARMUP ON TAP AS OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ZONAL...WEST TO EAST...AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER MONTANA...AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PRODUCING
DOWNSLOPE KATABATIC WARMING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVER OUR COUNTIES IN THE 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG CANADIAN ORIGIN COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE AS OUR CURRENT SUNDAY STORM...AND
LESS MESOSCALE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...THUS 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH 80 TO 100 PERCENT POPS DUE TO FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.
THURSDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED
RELATIVELY COOL WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE COLD AIR
REINFORCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
FRIDAY...SPRINGTIME IN THE ROCKIES CONTINUES WITH A MILD SPRING
DAY TO END OUR TRADITIONAL WORKWEEK...AS TRANSITORY RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES...INDUCING STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING AIDING HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE 50S... AND PERHAPS EVEN WARMER IF THE WARMER ECMWF CAN BE
BELIEVED...AS IT SHOWS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES NEAR 5640 METERS
WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 CELSIUS.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY HIGH THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY...EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS MILD AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A RIDGE ALOFT OVERHEAD...AND EASTER SUNRISE SERVICES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TO START THE DAY.
.AVIATION...MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR...WITH VFR DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
ONLY TROUBLE AIRFIELD AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE LARAMIE WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW. THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST HAS IFR CONDITIONS
HANGING IN AROUND KLAR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AFTER 10Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS ALL AIRPORTS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRESH
MOISTURE AND SNOW COVER FROM TODAYS SNOWSTORM LINGERS. SNOW-COVER
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES UP. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE DISTRICTS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.
SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.
STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE KCID VICINITY JUST BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.
SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.
MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
/5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.
SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.
MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
/5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BEGIN COLD/WINTRY AS SHORTWAVE
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BTWN DEPARTING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID APR AND WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY
MODERATE AS DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR LIFT TO
GREENLAND...AND PACIFIC AIR MAKES INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND SRN CANADA. HEADING DOWN THE ROAD...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE AROUND NORMAL...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BLO NORMAL DURING THE TEMP SWINGS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM GEM ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS THAT THE PATTERN
MAY BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WHICH WILL MEAN
RAINFALL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EVENTS. HOPEFULLY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE AVOIDED AS THE SNOWMELT SEASON RESUMES.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT...A HVY/WET SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS...MODELS THAT HAD MAX QPF AXIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S AND E. RESULT IS IMPROVING
MODEL AGREEMENT NOW ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SET UP. IT
APPEARS MAX QPF AXIS SHOULD RUN ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE HURON MTNS. THE NAM IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NW OF
THIS AXIS WHILE THE GEM REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC ARE DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
LAKES...BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER FROM
ERN MN E AND NE NTO UPPER MI BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO EASTWARD WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF BRIEF UPPER JET COUPLING
WITH LEFT EXIT OF JET SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOTED WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4G/KG AVBL AROUND
700-750MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH NEGATIVE
EPV/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOTED OVERTOP THE FGEN. FINALLY...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ADVECTING INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE
PCPN AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER BANDING OF
SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MDT/HVY PCPN AREA OR EVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW AT
TIMES...CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR SPRINGTIME HVY SNOW EVENTS.
ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL HINGE ON WHERE THESE
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SET UP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...LOCATIONS W OF KIMT/KMQT LINE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT...PROBABLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADVY ISSUED FOR NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES E MAY IN
FACT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. FINALLY...
EVEN THE FAR E COUNTIES OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO AN ADVY IF THE E TREND HOLDS UP IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS.
PCPN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY THU AND WILL LIKELY END. SFC HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THU NIGHT...AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER EXPANDING OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR
OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI
UNDER MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD EVEN DEVELOP. FRI HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S N WITH A CHILLY WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY
AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC IN LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW...THOUGH AGREEMENT IS
IMPROVING WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS. GEM IS STRONGER WITH WAVE AND
IS HEAVIER WITH THE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECWMF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM NOW. SOME -RA POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
W SAT AFTN...THEN SPREAD E SAT NIGHT/SUN. WITH WETTER TRENDS
NOTED...WILL TRENDING POPS UP TO CHC.
MON/TUE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TROF DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS WHILE TROF SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE/HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS
OF HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY VERIFIES BETTER. RESULT IS A COOLER
THAN GFS SCENARIO...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS. IF ANY
MINOR WAVES TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE ERN TROF...THERE MAY
BE SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN MON OR TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN SD BY 12Z WED
AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL 15 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS BEST SHOT OF ANY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS REMAIN IN
FARGO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TIL ABOUT LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE KEPT VFR CIGS BUT COULD BE ISOLD MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DVL
BASIN INTO GFK-BJI AREAS. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE
LEADS TO ME TO KEEP IT MOSTLY LOW END VFR THRU WED AFTN BEFORE
CLEARING MOVES SOUTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1238 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE DIURNAL SHSN HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY JUST LAKE
EFFECT SHSN. STILL NOT GETTING AN HRRR MODEL RUNS BUT LATEST RUC
STILL HAS LAST OF MEASURABLE SHSN ENDING BY 05Z. BASED ON THE RUC
AND LATEST RADAR AND SAT PIX...LOOKS LIKE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS
IN LINE SO NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE. FROM
HERE ON OUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD JUST A HALF AN INCH
OR LESS HERE AND THERE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MID TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START A REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER AND A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE
GFS. I WILL WORK SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MORNING SHOWERS IN NW OHIO AND THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NE OH AND
NW PA. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW -2C FRIDAY NIGHT. WE MAY HAVE
TO WATCH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL. RIGHT NOW I WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A SHARP LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL OF SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY`S RIDGE
WILL ELEVATE POPS ACROSS THE TOLEDO METRO AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE LOW AS THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY LOOK LIKE
THE BETTER DAY FOR RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND DRAWS UP GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LAST OF THE COLD WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BEHIND
US WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEARLY NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS COOL ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT MOST OF THIS WILL BE GONE BY MORNING AS FLOW
WEAKENS AND AIRMASS DRIER FURTHER. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS AT
KYNG FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THEN LIFT TO VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE WIND ACROSS THE LAKE DIMINISHES IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH...THEN
GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR PASSAGE OVER LAKE ERIE EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEATS OF I-94. REST OF TEH DAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTOTHE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
A 6 TO 10K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AFTER 18.03Z AS
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW. SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 30
KNOT RANGE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS AT BOTH TAF SITES FROM 17.14Z
THROUGH 18.02Z. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR FORECAST UPDATE
THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND
THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE REASON? NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
RAMPED UP TO OVER 7 MB OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE STRATUS DECK
TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND -- UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90. AT THE COAST AN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ WHERE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TO PUSH HIGHS 75-80.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
MONDAY BEFORE A BIG CHANGE HITS US ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA HELPING TO
DROP 700 MB TEMPS TO THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS THE ONE BIG QUESTION MARK, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GENERATED. IF THE MODELS VERIFY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO UNDER
4000 FEET AND INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE LEADING TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH. UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODELS, TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILLS. STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, BUT IT`S VERY INTERESTING FOR A LATE APRIL
SYSTEM!
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS
VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF
MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/KBB
AVIATION: W PI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
434 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA
TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: W PI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
429 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS
SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR
MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY
INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE
KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR
THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND APPROACH.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE.
CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LAST EVENING HAS
NOW STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH, THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ONSHORE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FOR THE FLOW TO ENCOUNTER AND AID IN THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY. THIS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH THE HRRR INDICATING THIS AND EVEN A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THE PROBABILITY OF
LIGHTNING IS TOO LOW BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IF
PATTERNS APPEAR TO BE CHANGING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE KEYS WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND
TO A EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERRUNNING SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...EXCEPT A
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE POPS WILL
THEN BE RAISED TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING INTO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY AS THE 500 MB TEMP COOLS DOWN TO -12C OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. SO WILL INCREASE THE POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHBOEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...DUE TO A SHORT
WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE 500 MB
TEMPS REMAINING COOL IN THE -10 TO -12C RANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SO
THE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE DRY WEATHER TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING ALL BUT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS AT 12Z...AND
LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOK FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO SCOUR SOME CLOUDS AWAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING...WHEN
VCSH IS FORECAST. UNTIL THEN...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT...FOR NOW KEPT CLOUDS ABOVE 3KFT.
MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS OVER THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO THE SEAS IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 7
FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 FEET ALONG WITH THE GULF SEAS.
CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY...APRIL 15...MIAMI TIED A DAILY HIGH MINIMUM OF
76F...LAST REACHED IN 1999.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 72 83 72 / 20 30 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 75 84 75 / 30 40 50 30
MIAMI 82 74 85 74 / 40 50 50 30
NAPLES 83 68 87 68 / 20 30 50 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
1024 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1021 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST INTO IOWA AND THEN
NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE HURON. AS IT PROGRESSES, A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT ACROSS IL, PUTTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY
THIS EVENING. DURING THE DAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
SD LOW. 12Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
825-850 MB. THAT SHOULD ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WE EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30-39 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR
MORE. PEAK WINDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE NOON TO 3 PM TIME FRAME.
MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS WILL HELP THE SURFACE TEMPS
CLIMB ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LIGHTLY FILTERED
SUNSHINE WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS, WITH READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S BY 3-4 PM.
WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IL
SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL, LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
ESPECIALLY TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, WINDS AND SKY. NO FORMAL UPDATE WILL
BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 556 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS TAF SET. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR ALL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME EVEN HIGHER AT
KPIA. WE WILL LOSE THE GUSTS WITH SUNSET, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
STILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD, WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON THURSDAY.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LOW
TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS ARE NOT
QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE WINDS AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS, SO
AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AT KPIA SHOWS 33KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, AS OPPOSED TO 43KT ON THE PRIOR RUN JUST 24
HOURS AGO. DESPITE THIS DECREASE IN MOMENTUM, THINK S/SE WINDS
WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
KILX CWA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25MPH FURTHER EAST NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER. THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXTENT OF WARMING WILL BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND MIXING HEIGHTS
LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5000FT. RESULTING AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 FAR WEST.
AS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LOW LIFTS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR, IT WILL
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, CREATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT TO PERHAPS PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT,
BUOYS IN THE NORTHERN GULF ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING DEW POINTS AS LOW
AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH, DO
NOT THINK FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN ORDER TO
PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL
THAT IS HOLDING ON TO QPF ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
INDICATIONS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. AT THIS POINT, WILL LEAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE DRY AIR MASS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTER A WARM/DRY DAY ON SATURDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER WITH ITS APPROACH, WITH MOST 00Z APR 16 GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
EASTER SUNDAY MAY REMAIN LARGELY DRY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN DRIVING PRECIP EASTWARD INTO THE AREA, BUT EVEN IT HAS
BACKED OFF AND KEEPS RAIN AT BAY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
EARLIEST. GEM FOCUSES BEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WHILE ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND ADVERTISES MAINLY A MONDAY RAIN
EVENT. AS A RESULT OF THE DISTINCT SLOWING TREND, HAVE TRIMMED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DRY,
THEN WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE PICTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME
FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY WEEK RAIN CHANCES, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WILL FEATURE WARMER WEATHER, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING TEMPS REACHING THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.
SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.
STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED 14Z-17Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POTENTIAL UNTIL WINDS INCREASE MID MORNING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL PER NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
IA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EVENING BEFORE VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH A BAND OF SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO THE HEAVIEST BAND SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA.
THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD GET A BAND OF 2-5 INCHES THOUGH...MAINLY
CONFINED TO GRANT/SOUTHEAST OTTERTAIL AND SOUTHERN WADENA
COUNTIES. SO THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY HERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
KFAR VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES VIS WITH THE SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
VIS GOING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS SNOW DISSIPATES. KEPT SNOW
MENTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KEPT THEM VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. KDVL...KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE MVFR OR EVEN LOWER AT
TIMES WITH SNOW BANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL COME UP BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
TWEAKED POPS AS THE BAND THAT DROPPED ABOUT AN INCH IN FARGO
BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE BAND BROUGHT 2-3 INCHES IN PARTS OF
WADENA AND OTTERTAIL COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
DEFORMATION BAND CLOSELY. STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT IF THERE IS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH THERE
COULD BE MORE THAN SIX INCHES IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
GIVEN THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
KFAR VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES VIS WITH THE SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
VIS GOING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS SNOW DISSIPATES. KEPT SNOW
MENTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KEPT THEM VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. KDVL...KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE MVFR OR EVEN LOWER AT
TIMES WITH SNOW BANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL COME UP BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THE WINDS AT
KLSE HAVE YET TO RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND ARE STILL
AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS SUGGESTS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN THIS AS THE 16.06Z NAM AND 16.09Z RAP WINDS ALOFT
APPEAR TO BE STRONG COMPARED TO THE LOCAL VWP WINDS...BUT WILL
INCLUDE IT AS OTHER RADAR VWP WINDS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGER
WINDS. THIS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS THE SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE AND WITH THE WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. ONCE THE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS AT BOTH SITES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WITH KRST AROUND 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
TOWARD EVENING AS THE MIXING DECREASES. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE CEILINGS SHOULD COME
DOWN TO MVFR AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST IN THE RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD GO THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1059 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR FORECAST UPDATE
THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND
THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE REASON? NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
RAMPED UP TO OVER 7 MB OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE STRATUS DECK
TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BY
LATER THIS MORNING WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND -- UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90. AT THE COAST AN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH
WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ WHERE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TO PUSH HIGHS 75-80.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
MONDAY BEFORE A BIG CHANGE HITS US ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA HELPING TO
DROP 700 MB TEMPS TO THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS THE ONE BIG QUESTION MARK, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE
GENERATED. IF THE MODELS VERIFY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO UNDER
4000 FEET AND INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE LEADING TO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH. UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODELS, TEMPS WILL BE
LOWERED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILLS. STILL
NEARLY A WEEK OUT, BUT IT`S VERY INTERESTING FOR A LATE APRIL
SYSTEM!
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS
VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF
MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS
NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED
STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE
LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF
SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER
FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS.
A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS
STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS HELPED TO CLEAR OUT THE STRATUS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND HAS ALSO HELPED TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OUT
WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER AND TEMPERATURES 5
DEGREES WARMER OVER YESTERDAY. THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS DRYING AIRMASS WILL HELP TO SLOW THE RETURN
OF STRATUS TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF COASTAL POINTS SUCH AS PT
SUR. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY WIND WILL RESULT IN LARGE
STEEP SEAS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/KBB
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: LARRY
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN...THOUGH BEST ASCENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE MAIN BATCH OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF
THE CFWA. BUT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOCAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SPREADS INTO AREA. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS MORNING.
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND WILL SPREAD
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AIRMASS LOOKS
FAIRLY SUBSIDENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK...SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WARM UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NA
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS
A FAIR CHANCE OF EXTENDING WELL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL THEN BE WARMER AND DRIER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO AROUND 8000 FEET AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 10Z...BETTER CHANCE AT KAPA...WITH
PERHAPS CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5000 FEET AGL AT KAPA AND KBJC. VCSH
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WINDS TO BE BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA. WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY...MAY BE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
...HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM NOW IS MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY AM SEEING SOME BANDED PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
SHRA...DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DEWPOINTS STILL PRETTY LOW OVER
THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP COOL THINGS OFF THIS EVE AS WET BULB
IS REACHED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING ITS PEAK FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.
A COUPLE OF RECENT TRENDS ARE MAKING FOR A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN IT
HAD BEEN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO MINUS
5 OR 6 AS OPPOSED TO THE MINUS 10 OR LOWER FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THIS IS POINTING AT THE SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT. BUT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND
TIMING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW FALLING AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW 6K
FEET...EXCEPT MAYBE ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE A PARTICULAR CHALLENGE SINCE
ELEVATIONS FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6000-
6500 FOOT RANGE. SO...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THIS EVE COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WET PAVEMENT
AND A FEW INCHES OF SLUSH. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE MIDDLE ROAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS SNOW LEVELS AT OR ABOVE THAT ELEVATION
FOR THE EARLY EVE. BUT...HIGHER TRRN TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO
SPANISH PEAKS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW...MORE THAN SIX INCHES
FOR SOME AREAS.
OTHER ISSUE IS THE RECENT TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMS FALLING
OVER THE SRN ZONES...THE WETS AND SRN SANGRES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. THE HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES WRF...FOR EXAMPLE...KEEP
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE PIKES PK REGION. THE NAM
AND RUC..LOWER RES...KEEP HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS SO FAR...AM
INCLINED TO KEEP WITH AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMS FOR PIKES
PEAK...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SRN AND ERN SIDES WILL GET
A BIT MORE THIS EVE. MODELS ARE HITTING THE SRN SANGRES AND HIGHER
WETS PRETTY HARD THROUGH 06-08Z TONIGHT. HAVE CONSIDERED UPGRADING
FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT SINCE THE LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER
GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...EXPECT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS TO BE PRETTY HIGH UP AND SPOTTY. SO...ADVISORIES
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM TRENDS
PRETTY CAREFULLY.
WILL SEE THE SYSTEM CLEAR OUT GRADUALLY FROM N TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. BALANCE OF
THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY NICE...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. CLOSED LOW MOVES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC...ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...SO SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON SATURDAY THEN ACROSS CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS AN OPEN
TROF. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH COOLING ALOFT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...AND
A COLD FRONT...THOUGH IT IS NOT ALL THAT COOL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM12 IS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT SAT AFTERNOON SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER BY 00Z. GFS IS A TAD SLOWER...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A JUST A TAD MOISTER. EITHER
WAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AGAIN...PROBABLY AROUND
9.5-10KFT...SO BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN
SCARS CLOSELY FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WALDO. FOR NOW
THOUGH...THINK THAT GFS PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE...AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY AS MODEL CAPE
VALUES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT
AS HIGHER CAPE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST.
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN CO ON SUNDAY...SO AFTER
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK A LITTLE SPOTTIER IN COVERAGE.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN...THEN EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE CONDITIONS OF FUELS...MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS DAY. OTHERWISE...DRY LINE WILL BE LURKING NEAR
THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF...SEEM TO SUGGEST A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND LESS OF A PERSISTENT MERIDIONAL FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO THESE LATEST RUNS KEEP THE DRYLINE JUST TO OUR
EAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR WED AS GFS SHOWS MORE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
EC DOES NOT HAVE...SO JURY IS STILL OUT. EITHER WAY...SHOULD BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014
EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THIS EVE. KCOS WILL BE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIP...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL GO DOWN TO IFR CIGS
AND/OR VIS FOR THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. KPUB WILL FOLLOW SUIT...ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO LATER AS PRECIP SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND 5500-6000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
KALS COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT THE GREATER IMPACT
WILL BE ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRES...WETS...AND PIKES PEAK. CLEARING
CONDITIONS THU MORNING COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF FG OR BR FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE PRECIP EARLY ON. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ072>075-079>082-087-088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS BRIEFLY WENT NORTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE...BUT NOW TRENDING MORE NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS A BIT
GUSTY ALONG FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL AS ALONG
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WEB CAMS STILL INDICATING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. MAY ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
AIRMASS COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT
SPREADS INTO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WILL ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER
ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 21Z WHEN MID LEVEL ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. LATEST
MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH
FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER.
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PARK COUNTY AND
PALMER DIVIDE WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. WILL
KEEP THE LOW POPS FOR THE DENVER AREA NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE EVENING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SEEM REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014
FRONT HAS PASSED AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
NORTHERLY WINDS. LATEST RAP AND HRRR INDICATING WINDS TO REMAIN A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH 21Z BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY. WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
TAFS SEEM REASONABLE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 21Z...MAINLY AT KAPA AND
KBJC. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH. CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET AGL FOR A SHORT TIME...MAINLY AT KAPA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
313 AM CDT
WEATHER WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ATTENTION ON
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND THEN SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY DAY YESTERDAY IS
ADVANCING EAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF AT LEAST 22 STATES UNDER FREEZE WARNINGS
THIS MORNING! STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING IS SEEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE NORTHERN GULF AND AT THE SURFACE THE DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED
SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WITH SEVERAL PLATFORMS/BUOYS
REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. SO BASICALLY THE GULF IS NOT
AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THAT WILL BE A MAIN REASON WE LOOK TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.
THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE THAT
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SD THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW ITS PARENT JET
STREAK/DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHERE A SNOW STORM IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI/U.P.
OF MICHIGAN.
THE QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM SURFACE LOW BY
AFTERNOON WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MIXING WILL AID THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN CREATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS PLUS
10 MPH OF THAT. SOME 35 MPH GUSTS SHOULD EVEN BE REALIZED IN NORTH
CENTRAL IL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOUNCE BACK 15 DEGREES OR EVEN
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION. A SLIGHT COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE INTO CITY OF
CHICAGO AND NORTHWARD WILL KEEP THESE LAKE ADJACENT AREAS A HANDFUL
OF DEGREES COOLER...BUT COMPARED TO 33 DEGREES YESTERDAY...THE
FORECAST OF AROUND 50 TODAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE WELCOME.
OUTLYING AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 50S. UPSTREAM DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS DOWNSTATE IL/IN INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY...SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS TODAY WITH
HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN MOST AREAS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
REMAINS NORTH AS WELL AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASCENT HERE REMAINS
WITHIN A LOW PWAT ATMOSPHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
RADAR ECHOES/VIRGA ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT
IT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
CONTINUING...LOWS LOOK TO ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE SYSTEM SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME STATIONARY. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A VERY PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. HAVE CONSIDERABLY
LOWERED CLOUD COVER DURING THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND
WITH THAT BOOSTED TEMPERATURES SOME...WITH 55 TO 60 PROBABLE. A
SHEARING UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOOK AT THE DPROG/DT...OR TREND...OF SEVERAL
MODELS OVER THE PAST FOUR CYCLES SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS FORCING AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED THE FORECAST
TREND TO CUT BACK POPS BUT ALSO TO CONFINE THE AREA WHERE
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. BY FRIDAY
THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE HAS FORCING EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ONE
FINAL SEPARATE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SEEN ON THE NCEP MODELS PASSES OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THIS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM NEAR THE LAKE TO
OUTLYING AREAS...WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S PRESENTLY FORECAST ACROSS
THAT CROSS SECTION. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RESEARCH FAVORS SUCH A
SPREAD THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHILE THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN
CANADA IT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF GOING
TOWARD THE EC AND GEM WHICH WE HAVE LEANED OUR FORECAST. THESE
MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
DEPICTED BY MODELS LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE ROCKIES...MORE SO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* STRONG SSE WINDS AND GUSTS POSING POTENTIAL CROSSWIND ISSUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LLWS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS DIMINISH.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTING ACROSS IOWA INTO WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SSE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY.
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SFC COOLING AND BETTER LOW
LEVEL STABILITY...THOUGH STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY CREATE MARGINAL
LLWS CONDITIONS. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING
THEN AROUND TO THE WEST LATE TOMORROW AFTER THE LOW CROSSES LAKE
SUPERIOR AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR LOW UNTIL LATE TOMORROW.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT FOR LLWS TONIGHT.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHC RAIN. MVFR PSBL.
FRIDAY...SLT CHC RAIN. MVFR PSBL.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC RAIN.
MONDAY...SLT CHC RAIN.
TUESDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO SET UP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 KT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INDIANA AND ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE
SURFACE. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE IT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1021 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
Low pressure in South Dakota will move east into Iowa and then
northeast toward Lake Huron. As it progresses, a warm front will
lift across IL, putting our forecast area in the warm sector by
this evening. During the day, southerly winds will increase as the
pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and the
SD low. 12z RAP forecast soundings show mixing heights up to
825-850 mb. That should allow momentum transfer of wind speeds
around 25 mph with some gusts to 35 mph. We expect to remain below
wind advisory criteria of 30-39 mph sustained winds for an hour or
more. Peak winds appear to be in the Noon to 3 pm time frame.
Mixing of dry air from the mid levels will help the surface temps
climb about 10 to 15 deg warmer than yesterday. Lightly filtered
sunshine will also help boost high temps, with readings in the mid
to upper 50s by 3-4 pm.
We should remain dry until the cold front pushes across IL
sometime late Thursday/Thursday night. Still, limited moisture
will keep rain chances and amounts on the low side.
Our current forecast grids look on track over the next 12-24 hours,
especially temps, dewpoints, winds and sky. No formal update will
be needed this morning.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1218 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014
pressure gradient between 1032 MB high over the eastern Great
Lakes and a slowly filling Great Plains low is producing winds
gusts around 30 kts at terminals at midday. Gust should diminish
slowly this afternoon as high moves further east and the low
continues to fill. Winds should diminish even more quickly around
00z. A weak pre-frontal trough associated with the low is expected
to move into Illinois Thursday afternoon and produce a wind shift
to the northwest.
An increase in clouds and the development of CIGs is likely
late tonight and Thursday as a series of fast-moving northern
stream waves move across the Midwest. low-level moisture is
lacking and any CIGs are expected to remain IFR.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday
Winds will increase markedly across central Illinois today as
gradient tightens between departing high pressure system and low
tracking from the Dakotas into southern Minnesota. Models are not
quite as strong with the winds as they were in previous runs, so
am not concerned about reaching Wind Advisory criteria. BUFKIT
momentum transfer at KPIA shows 33kt winds at the top of the mixed
layer this afternoon, as opposed to 43kt on the prior run just 24
hours ago. Despite this decrease in momentum, think S/SE winds
will gust to between 30 and 35mph across the western half of the
KILX CWA, with gusts to around 25mph further east near the
Indiana border. This strong southerly flow will help bring much
warmer air into the region. Extent of warming will be mitigated
somewhat by an easterly component to the wind and mixing heights
lowering to less than 5000ft. Resulting afternoon highs will range
from the middle 50s east to around 60 far west.
As southern Minnesota low lifts toward Lake Superior, it will
drag a weak cold front into the Illinois River Valley by dawn
Thursday. This boundary will become stationary along the I-55
corridor during the day Thursday, creating little in the way of
sensible weather. A mid-level short-wave will approach from the
southwest late in the day and will eventually interact with the
front to perhaps produce a few light showers. Current surface
analysis shows a very dry air mass has settled across the eastern
half of the CONUS all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. In fact,
buoys in the northern Gulf are currently showing dew points as low
as the middle to upper 30s. With so much dry air to the south, do
not think front will have enough moisture to work with in order to
produce precip across the area on Thursday. GFS is the only model
that is holding on to QPF across the Illinois River Valley
Thursday afternoon, but think this is overdone. Will therefore go
with a dry forecast across the board. There are even some
indications that dry conditions will continue Thursday night into
Friday as the upper wave arrives. At this point, will leave chance
PoPs for showers in the forecast Thursday night into Friday
morning as synoptic lift associated with the wave will likely be
enough to squeeze a few light showers out of the dry air mass. Once
the wave passes, dry weather will return Friday afternoon and
night.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday
After a warm/dry day on Saturday, attention turns to next
approaching system for early next week. Models have been trending
slower with its approach, with most 00z Apr 16 guidance suggesting
Easter Sunday may remain largely dry. GFS is the most aggressive
model in driving precip eastward into the area, but even it has
backed off and keeps rain at bay until Sunday afternoon at the
earliest. GEM focuses best rain chances Sunday night into Monday,
while ECMWF is even slower and advertises mainly a Monday rain
event. As a result of the distinct slowing trend, have trimmed
PoPs accordingly. Will keep Saturday night and Sunday morning dry,
then will bring chance PoPs into the picture across the western
CWA Sunday afternoon. Will highlight the Sunday night/Monday time
frame with the highest PoPs, followed by a return to dry weather
on Tuesday. Aside from the early week rain chances, the extended
forecast will feature warmer weather, with model guidance
suggesting temps reaching the 70s by Tuesday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR EVEN A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FILL/WEAKEN WITH ISALLABARIC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST PRESSURE
FALLS IN SW WI. IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A CLASSIC MATURE COMMA
HEAD SHAPE TO THIS MID LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A STRONG VORT MAX WAS NOTED IN NORTHEAST NEB. ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM AND MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
IN THE WARM SECTOR THE AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ALL THE WAY FROM
IA TO TX. THERE WAS ALSO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO WI THIS EVENING THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
MESO MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING AS PVA SWEEPS THROUGH...BUT
WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE DRY LOW LEVELS WIN
THE BATTLE.
FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TARGET SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.
SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.
STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT
SURE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT WENT AHEAD AND
DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN
INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS
ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE
LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS
FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP
OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:
RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)
RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:
RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
STILL COLD AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER
TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE
WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT DID
DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
COLL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT
WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO WILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE
POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK
INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:
RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)
RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:
RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
TEMPS ARE WARMING A BIT MORE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH
SUNSHINE...SO WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME HERE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGES
PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.
SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
VFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WHERE CIGS
HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
EASTERLY AIR TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND NO STRATUS DECK TO
THE NORTH TO ADVECT IN...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. GUSTY
ENE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF. WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS. THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.
COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014
MIXING WILL CONTINUE HIGHER WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...STAYING SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY POST THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYING FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.
CIGS WILL STAY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH
FIELDS POINTING TO A DROP INTO MVFR - POTENTIALLY IFR - AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL FALL TO THE NORTH...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THAT
SAID...MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. TEMP
PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN AT THIS TIME. SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING
A LOSS OF ICE AS THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN WI OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN. FREEZING PCPN WOULD BE A
CONCERN IF GROUND TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN WI BY 18Z THU...EXPECT SOME
CLEARING FROM WEST-EAST OF THE CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP
BKN/OVC SKIES...BUT SOUNDINGS POINT TO MIXING OUT OF THE LOW CIGS.
GOING TO TREND THE FORECAST THIS WAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....DAS