Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
910 PM PDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN KERN COUNTY SHOWING HAVE STEADILY SHOWN
INCREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AND NOW SEVERAL SPOTS ARE EXCEEDING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HRRR AND ADJMET DATA SUGGEST THIS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUICKLY
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AND AT THIS POINT WE/RE JUST LOOKING AT
GROUND CLUTTER ON THE 88D. SATELLITE DATA SHOW SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT AS WELL. GRIDDED DATA ADJUSTED FOR THESE CHANGES AND TRENDS.
DRIER AIRMASS TOMORROW WILL INHIBIT ANY APPRECIABLE CAPE FROM
DEVELOPING SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE WORK WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP AN EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN TUESDAY.
500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5700 METERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE STATE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH
SO NO CHANGES TO THE DAY 6-7 FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-12 96:1908 52:1922 64:1904 34:1953
KFAT 04-13 97:1898 54:1998 59:1936 34:1911
KFAT 04-14 98:1985 52:1956 60:1985 36:1972
KBFL 04-12 98:1908 52:1956 59:1978 33:1903
KBFL 04-13 94:2008 57:2012 59:1930 32:1893
KBFL 04-14 99:1985 56:2003 62:1962 33:1893
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENTLY MOVING OVER THE
COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INTENSE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN SUMMIT COUNTY FOR THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS. LIGHTNING NETWORKS HAVE SHOWN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GUNNISON AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS
EVENING. WITH THE MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THE PRESENT TIME...WILL CONTINUE ALL OF THE WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY MID-EVENING.
CONCERNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS...MESOSCALE AND HI-RES
MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE RAP DOES SHOW 3-4+
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY NEW
ADVISORIES...BUT WILL BE MENTIONING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN
THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL BE MENTIONING AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.
LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS ALL POINT TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS TROUGH AND RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH SOME WARMING WHICH WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE AMOUNTS OF SOIL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT
SNOW EVENT.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRYING AND
A WARMING TREND WITH READINGS BACK TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
BUT GFS STILL SHOWING THE STRONGEST AND DEEPEST SOLUTION. WITH A
BIT BETTER CONTINUITY WILL TREND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY AND WARMER AGAIN FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR...BUT WILL GENERATLLY BE LESS
THAN ONE-HALF INCH PER HOUR. AS TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL INCREASE. NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BEGIN APPROVING
BY ABOUT 03Z WITH SNOW ENDING AROUND 06Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ030-
032-037>040-043-045>047.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033>036-041.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HERKIMER COUNTY...BUT EAST TOWARD NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MULTI-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN PA.
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.
IT LOOKS AS IF THIS MCS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS COULD WORK WELL SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY DAWN. WHILE
WE THINK THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL AT THAT MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...DUE TO AN INCREASE
CLOUDS. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST SO
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY. WE HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND THE
WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY...EVEN BREEZY AT TIMES. DECENT MIXING IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME
60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE
CLEARING COULD BE DELAYED MOST DUE THE WARM FRONT EXITING THOSE
AREAS LAST.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 50S.
MORE WARMING MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...
SO ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG
SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND IN THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AREAS...THEN
COVERAGE SPREADS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...AROUND 50 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY IS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT THE FRONT COULD EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS
OF THE TIMING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH RIVERS DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOW
MELT WHICH IS DESCRIBED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION...AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NT/EARLY WED...MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL TAKE
HOLD WED...DESPITE FAIR WEATHER. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RESUME LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...
TUE NT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST...A DISTINCT
ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY TUE NT...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E LATER AT NIGHT...BUT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END AS SNOW. SOME MINOR
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIP
ENDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMS ON COLDER SURFACES EVEN IN
SOME VALLEY AREAS. AS LONG AS NO PRONOUNCED WAVES DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT...THEN SNOWFALL AMTS IN ANY AREA SHOULD REMAIN MINOR. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT BY
DAYBREAK WED. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS BY EARLY WED AM.
WED-FRI NT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY THE REGION RATHER
RAPIDLY EARLY WED...WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE. A SFC HIGH WILL
DOMINATE FOR LATER WED INTO FRI. SO...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED AM...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WED-WED
NT...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU-FRI NT...WITH
DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THU...THEN 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON FRI...WARMEST BOTH DAYS IN VALLEY AREAS. OVERNIGHT MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S THU AM...AND 30S TO AROUND 40
FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.
SAT-SAT NT...A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT OR SAT NT. WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...A MOISTENING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
14/06Z.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FROM AROUND KGFL-KALB-KPSF TOWARDS 09Z-11Z...SO WILL MENTION
VCSH AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL DUE TO SHOWERS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU WITH JUST OVC SKIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT
WELL NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR AT KGFL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN TREND TO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 TO
25 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE KGFL/KPOU/KPSF FOR A TIME SUNDAY
MORNING...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000-3000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33.0 DEFINITE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS ARE NOW SNOW FREE...WHILE
SNOW LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...LAKE GEORGE AREA...
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND OF COURSE THE ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IN
SOME AREAS...BUT THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NORTH.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS LOOK LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY WELL BELOW
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH IN SOME PLACES. WE EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE 35 TO 45
PERCENT SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND 45 TO 60 PERCENT NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...RH VALUES RISE TO 80 TO 100
PERCENT AND FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY
LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
AND HIGHER GUSTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT
RIVER RISES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER RIVERS IN AND THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS...AND
BERKSHIRES WILL SEE MINOR DIURNAL RISES DUE TO SNOW MELT. THE ONLY
AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE REMAINS ARE THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER AND EAST CANADA CREEK. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WHILE THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK LIGHT...THEY WILL COMBINED WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT RUNOFF.
THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS RAIN
ALONG WITH INITIALLY THE WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT COULD EVEN
RESULT IN MINOR TO PERHAPS SOME MODERATE FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ONCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCHES MAYBE
NEED TO BE ISSUED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IF CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLOODING INCREASES. IT IS ADVISABLE TO STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HERKIMER COUNTY...BUT EAST TOWARD NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MULTI-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN PA.
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.
IT LOOKS AS IF THIS MCS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS COULD WORK WELL SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY DAWN. WHILE
WE THINK THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL AT THAT MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...DUE TO AN INCREASE
CLOUDS. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST SO
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY. WE HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND THE
WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY...EVEN BREEZY AT TIMES. DECENT MIXING IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME
60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE
CLEARING COULD BE DELAYED MOST DUE THE WARM FRONT EXITING THOSE
AREAS LAST.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 50S.
MORE WARMING MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...
SO ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG
SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND IN THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AREAS...THEN
COVERAGE SPREADS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...AROUND 50 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY IS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT THE FRONT COULD EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS
OF THE TIMING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH RIVERS DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOW
MELT WHICH IS DESCRIBED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION...AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NT/EARLY WED...MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL TAKE
HOLD WED...DESPITE FAIR WEATHER. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RESUME LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...
TUE NT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST...A DISTINCT
ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY TUE NT...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E LATER AT NIGHT...BUT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END AS SNOW. SOME MINOR
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIP
ENDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMS ON COLDER SURFACES EVEN IN
SOME VALLEY AREAS. AS LONG AS NO PRONOUNCED WAVES DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT...THEN SNOWFALL AMTS IN ANY AREA SHOULD REMAIN MINOR. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT BY
DAYBREAK WED. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS BY EARLY WED AM.
WED-FRI NT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY THE REGION RATHER
RAPIDLY EARLY WED...WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE. A SFC HIGH WILL
DOMINATE FOR LATER WED INTO FRI. SO...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED AM...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WED-WED
NT...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU-FRI NT...WITH
DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THU...THEN 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON FRI...WARMEST BOTH DAYS IN VALLEY AREAS. OVERNIGHT MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S THU AM...AND 30S TO AROUND 40
FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.
SAT-SAT NT...A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT OR SAT NT. WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...A MOISTENING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z/13 MON.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FROM AROUND KGFL-KALB-KPSF TOWARDS 08Z-10Z...SO WILL MENTION
VCSH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU WITH JUST OVC
SKIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR AT KGFL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME.
DEPENDING ON IF ENOUGH SHOWERS OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD OCCUR AT KGFL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN TREND INTO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVER 20 KT...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY AT KGFL/KPOU AND KPSF SUNDAY
MORNING...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000-3000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
33.0 DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SHRA. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS ARE NOW SNOW FREE...WHILE
SNOW LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...LAKE GEORGE AREA...
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND OF COURSE THE ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IN
SOME AREAS...BUT THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NORTH.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS LOOK LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY WELL BELOW
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH IN SOME PLACES. WE EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE 35 TO 45
PERCENT SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND 45 TO 60 PERCENT NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...RH VALUES RISE TO 80 TO 100
PERCENT AND FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY
LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
AND HIGHER GUSTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT
RIVER RISES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER RIVERS IN AND THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS...AND
BERKSHIRES WILL SEE MINOR DIURNAL RISES DUE TO SNOW MELT. THE ONLY
AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE REMAINS ARE THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER AND EAST CANADA CREEK. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WHILE THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK LIGHT...THEY WILL COMBINED WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT RUNOFF.
THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS RAIN
ALONG WITH INITIALLY THE WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT COULD EVEN
RESULT IN MINOR TO PERHAPS SOME MODERATE FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ONCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCHES MAYBE
NEED TO BE ISSUED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IF CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLOODING INCREASES. IT IS ADVISABLE TO STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1121 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
417 AM CDT
TODAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BOUNDARY WAS DRIVEN
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND THIS TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL HOVER ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. AS FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH STABLE CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE AND EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COUPLED JET STILL PROGGED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE RESULTING IN CYCLOGENENSIS ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
THE WEST. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH PWATS
PUSHING TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CLIPPING
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HEAVY PRECIP
REMAINS A CONCERN THOUGH PRECIP SO FAR HAS UNDERPERFORMED FROM PRIOR
EXPECTATIONS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE FLOOD
THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.
MONDAY...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -11C AND
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES LIFTING UP THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE BULLISH WITH QPF MONDAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE AREA IS BETTER ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR.
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND
A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL HELP SPREAD WARM AIR BACK INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SOUTHWEST LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT ARRIVING BY 1630-17Z.
* IFR CIGS ARRIVING BY 18Z AND VSBY LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR BY 19Z.
* PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVIEST COULD PRODUCE
IFR VSBY.
* WINDS TURN NORTH AND GUST TO 25-30 KT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER AREA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. MAIN CHANGE IN TAF WAS TO BRING SHIFT
TO EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS TO ORD SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND
ALSO INCLUDE MDW IN WIND SHIFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SHIFT
COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 17 OR 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN GYY
SEEING SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS WI SO
THESE SHOULD DEVELOP SOMETIME AFTER THE SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING
NOW AT ORD/MDW. OTHER CHALLENGE IS WITH SHRA/TSRA TRENDS...AS A
COMPLEX LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM IOWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST OCNL EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL ARRIVE A BIT SOONER AT THE
EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT DURATION COULD BE SHORTER THAN INDICATED
IN TEMPO GROUP IN TAF. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS OBSERVATIONAL AND
RADAR TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO WIND/CIG/AND SHRA/TSRA FORECAST.
FROM 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TODAY AND
THINKING IT WILL IMPACT RFD...ORD...AND DPA. WINDS WILL TURN N TO
NE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN AND
STORMS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO IFR AND THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR VSBY.
INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECTING LIMITED TSRA LATE
THIS EVENING AND JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NORTH
BEHIND THE LOW AND BEGIN GUSTING. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SEEN
AT GYY WITH MAX GUSTS OVER 35 KT PSBL. THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 30 KT. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY
MID MONDAY MORNING AND CIGS LIFT TO MVFR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST...LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHIFT BACK TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS...MEDIUM-HIGH IN ARRIVAL BY
1730-18Z.
* HIGH IN VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR IN BR...MEDIUM IN TIMING...AND
MEDIUM IN POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY IN BR AND HEAVIEST SHRA/TSRA.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SHRA/TSRA TRENDS AND TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST OCNL TSRA AT THE TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...MEDIUM IN TIMING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...-RASN PSBLY BCMG -SN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PSBL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS AS GALES ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
THERE IS A FRONT IN THE TROUGH BUT IT HOLDS A VARIETY OF FORMS AKA
COLD/STATIONARY/WARM AS YOU MOVE ALONG IT...SO WILL REFER TO IT AS A
TROUGH FOR SIMPLICITY. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WHILE THE LOW MOVES UP THE TROUGH AND
PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. NORTH GALES
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW AND EXTEND THROUGH THE NSH WATERS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID AFTN MONDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE RIDGE AND INCREASE TO 30
KT AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE THEN FEATURES EXTREME DIFFERENCES IN THE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST
THURSDAY. FOR REFERENCE THE ECMWF FEATURES A HIGH MOVING OVER THE
LAKE LATE THIS WEEK WHILE THE GFS HAS A LOW MOVING UP THE LAKE AT
THE SAME TIME.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874...10 PM
SUNDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM
MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Will update the forecast to have higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms further east into central IL today as area of
showers and a few thunderstorms already covering areas west of
I-57 and from I-74 sw. SPC expanded slight risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to areas west of I-57.
Southeast IL se of I-70 should mostly be dry today. Highs this
afternoon range from around 70 nw of the IL river to the upper 70s
over southeast IL. South winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 25 to 35
mph today and strongest over eastern IL. Frontal boundary to stay
nw of central IL into this evening and then cold front to push
east through IL overnight and thru southeast IL early Monday morning.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
A rather challenging forecast for this TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage across west central
Illinois this morning, but will likely take most of the day to
reach as far east as KCMI. Ceilings currently VFR at all TAF sites
and even as far back as central Missouri, where the rain is moving
in from. Ceiling progs from the RAP and HRRR models showing some
brief lowering into MVFR at times, with forecast soundings
becoming more favorable for this toward mid afternoon as the rain
becomes more widespread, especially KBMI-KSPI westward. There will
be some thunder at times, but still some question as to how
widespread it will be, so will leave VCTS mention for now. A sharp
cold front will be moving across the TAF sites from around 06-10Z,
with winds turning northwest and ceilings falling to IFR range.
Winds expected to become gusty around mid morning, with the
highest gusts this afternoon around 30 knots.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Frontal boundary currently extending from the southern Great Lakes
west-southwestward across Iowa into northern Kansas will serve as
the primary focusing mechanism for convection over the next 24
hours. One round of showers/storms aided by 55 to 60kt LLJ has
lifted into southern Wisconsin/far northern Illinois, while
additional storms are beginning to develop further southwest
around the Kansas City area in advance of an upper short-wave
tracking out of the southern Rockies. As this feature pushes
further eastward, showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous across the Mississippi River Valley into west-central
Illinois later this morning. Models continue to suggest that the
far E/SE KILX CWA will remain dry throughout the day, so have
confined POPs to locations west of a Danville to Effingham line.
Will be a windy and warm day as well, with southerly winds gusting
to between 30 and 35 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will range
from around 70 west of the Illinois River, to the upper 70s south
of I-70.
As cold front progresses eastward into the region, occasional showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the board tonight. With
strong convergence along the boundary, ample upper support from
the advancing short-wave, and precipitable water values
approaching 1.50, locally heavy rainfall will be likely. Despite
the threat for high rainfall rates within the storms, the risk for
severe weather will be minimal, as strongest instability/low-level
wind shear will remain focused further southwest from the Ozarks
into east Texas.
Cold front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will occur
during the morning hours, with readings dropping into the upper
30s/lower 40s during the afternoon. Brisk northwesterly winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will make it feel even colder,
with wind-chill values dipping into the upper 20s/lower 30s. In
addition, approaching northern-stream short-wave will keep precip
chances alive despite FROPA. Thermal profiles suggest light rain
showers may mix with snow along/west of I-55 during the afternoon
as 850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range. NAM continues to be
the most aggressive in developing snow across central Illinois
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, while all other models
are much lighter with the QPF within the cold airmass. Given
presence of upper support and adequate moisture profiles, will
carry a chance for snow-showers north of I-70 Monday evening. Any
accumulations will be minor and mainly confined to grassy surfaces
after dark. Once this wave passes, skies will gradually clear from
west to east overnight, allowing lows to drop below freezing.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
After cold and dry conditions on Tuesday with highs only reaching
the 40s, rising upper heights will allow temperatures to warm back
into the 60s by Thursday. Next system of interest is beginning to
come into better focus, with the 00z Apr 13 ECMWF coming into
better agreement with prior runs of the GFS. Both models now bring
an upper wave and its associated frontal boundary into central
Illinois on Friday. Despite decent upper dynamics, instability
appears meager with this system, so will not mention thunder at
this time. Will bring chance POPs for showers into the western
half of the CWA Thursday night, then everywhere on Friday. After
that, a return to dry weather and near normal temperatures in the
60s can be expected for Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
707 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
417 AM CDT
TODAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BOUNDARY WAS DRIVEN
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND THIS TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL HOVER ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. AS FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH STABLE CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE AND EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COUPLED JET STILL PROGGED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE RESULTING IN CYCLOGENENSIS ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
THE WEST. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH PWATS
PUSHING TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CLIPPING
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HEAVY PRECIP
REMAINS A CONCERN THOUGH PRECIP SO FAR HAS UNDERPERFORMED FROM PRIOR
EXPECTATIONS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE FLOOD
THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.
MONDAY...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -11C AND
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES LIFTING UP THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE BULLISH WITH QPF MONDAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE AREA IS BETTER ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR.
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND
A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL HELP SPREAD WARM AIR BACK INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SOUTHWEST LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SECOND ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH BEST
CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA MAY PRODUCE IFR VSBY.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
* WINDS TURN NORTH AND GUST TO 25-30 KT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TODAY AND
THINKING IT WILL IMPACT RFD...ORD...AND DPA. WINDS WILL TURN N TO
NE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN AND
STORMS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO IFR AND THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR VSBY.
INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECTING LIMITED TSRA LATE
THIS EVENING AND JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NORTH
BEHIND THE LOW AND BEGIN GUSTING. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SEEN
AT GYY WITH MAX GUSTS OVER 35 KT PSBL. THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 30 KT. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY
MID MONDAY MORNING AND CIGS LIFT TO MVFR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS SHIFTING DURING THE DAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHEN AND HOW MANY WIND SHIFTS THERE WILL BE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING...BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...-RASN PSBLY BCMG -SN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PSBL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS AS GALES ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
THERE IS A FRONT IN THE TROUGH BUT IT HOLDS A VARIETY OF FORMS AKA
COLD/STATIONARY/WARM AS YOU MOVE ALONG IT...SO WILL REFER TO IT AS A
TROUGH FOR SIMPLICITY. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WHILE THE LOW MOVES UP THE TROUGH AND
PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. NORTH GALES
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW AND EXTEND THROUGH THE NSH WATERS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID AFTN MONDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE RIDGE AND INCREASE TO 30
KT AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE THEN FEATURES EXTREME DIFFERENCES IN THE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST
THURSDAY. FOR REFERENCE THE ECMWF FEATURES A HIGH MOVING OVER THE
LAKE LATE THIS WEEK WHILE THE GFS HAS A LOW MOVING UP THE LAKE AT
THE SAME TIME.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874...10 PM
SUNDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM
MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
634 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Frontal boundary currently extending from the southern Great Lakes
west-southwestward across Iowa into northern Kansas will serve as
the primary focusing mechanism for convection over the next 24
hours. One round of showers/storms aided by 55 to 60kt LLJ has
lifted into southern Wisconsin/far northern Illinois, while
additional storms are beginning to develop further southwest
around the Kansas City area in advance of an upper short-wave
tracking out of the southern Rockies. As this feature pushes
further eastward, showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous across the Mississippi River Valley into west-central
Illinois later this morning. Models continue to suggest that the
far E/SE KILX CWA will remain dry throughout the day, so have
confined POPs to locations west of a Danville to Effingham line.
Will be a windy and warm day as well, with southerly winds gusting
to between 30 and 35 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will range
from around 70 west of the Illinois River, to the upper 70s south
of I-70.
As cold front progresses eastward into the region, occasional showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the board tonight. With
strong convergence along the boundary, ample upper support from
the advancing short-wave, and precipitable water values
approaching 1.50, locally heavy rainfall will be likely. Despite
the threat for high rainfall rates within the storms, the risk for
severe weather will be minimal, as strongest instability/low-level
wind shear will remain focused further southwest from the Ozarks
into east Texas.
Cold front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will occur
during the morning hours, with readings dropping into the upper
30s/lower 40s during the afternoon. Brisk northwesterly winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will make it feel even colder,
with wind-chill values dipping into the upper 20s/lower 30s. In
addition, approaching northern-stream short-wave will keep precip
chances alive despite FROPA. Thermal profiles suggest light rain
showers may mix with snow along/west of I-55 during the afternoon
as 850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range. NAM continues to be
the most aggressive in developing snow across central Illinois
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, while all other models
are much lighter with the QPF within the cold airmass. Given
presence of upper support and adequate moisture profiles, will
carry a chance for snow-showers north of I-70 Monday evening. Any
accumulations will be minor and mainly confined to grassy surfaces
after dark. Once this wave passes, skies will gradually clear from
west to east overnight, allowing lows to drop below freezing.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
After cold and dry conditions on Tuesday with highs only reaching
the 40s, rising upper heights will allow temperatures to warm back
into the 60s by Thursday. Next system of interest is beginning to
come into better focus, with the 00z Apr 13 ECMWF coming into
better agreement with prior runs of the GFS. Both models now bring
an upper wave and its associated frontal boundary into central
Illinois on Friday. Despite decent upper dynamics, instability
appears meager with this system, so will not mention thunder at
this time. Will bring chance POPs for showers into the western
half of the CWA Thursday night, then everywhere on Friday. After
that, a return to dry weather and near normal temperatures in the
60s can be expected for Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
A rather challenging forecast for this TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage across west central
Illinois this morning, but will likely take most of the day to
reach as far east as KCMI. Ceilings currently VFR at all TAF sites
and even as far back as central Missouri, where the rain is moving
in from. Ceiling progs from the RAP and HRRR models showing some
brief lowering into MVFR at times, with forecast soundings
becoming more favorable for this toward mid afternoon as the rain
becomes more widespread, especially KBMI-KSPI westward. There will
be some thunder at times, but still some question as to how
widespread it will be, so will leave VCTS mention for now. A sharp
cold front will be moving across the TAF sites from around 06-10Z,
with winds turning northwest and ceilings falling to IFR range.
Winds expected to become gusty around mid morning, with the
highest gusts this afternoon around 30 knots.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WIND. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...VERY VERY VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THE COLD
FRONT COULD STILL SHIFT SOUTH IF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH.
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE SOUTH WINDS. SOME OF
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE AROUND TOMORROW AND TEMPORARILY SHIFT WINDS AT ORD NE.
WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO GOOD REASON TO MAKE CHANGES...LEFT
WINDS IN THE TAFS ALONE.
NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES IN EARLY IN THE AFTN WITH TSRA AND
HEAVY RAIN PSBL. PREVIOUS TIMING IN THE GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND
THINKING A PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE
SITUATION. MOVED THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS UP AS WELL AND
EXTENDED THE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING ORD/MDW OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
* ABSOLUTELY NO CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY. IFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EARLY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY...JUST PRIOR TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COMPLEX WIND FORECAST ACROSS
THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE
LARGE VARIATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS DIFFERENT
SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THIS FIRST LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE. THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SECOND LOW PASSES.
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS FAR AS HEADLINE
CRITERIA WINDS...WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
CONTINUING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE
WATERS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY CONTINUE HERE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS COULD AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
REQUIRING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME I WILL HOLD OFF ON DOING THIS.
CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY
GALES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE LAKE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...A RATHER STOUT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH COULD SUPPORT AROUND 40 KT
NORTHERLY GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. I HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
4 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM
MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Latest hourly runs of the HRRR and RAP models suggest that
forecast area will remain dry through the night, with the
shower/storm threat increasing from the northwest after sunrise
Sunday. This is a drier solution than some of the earlier runs, as
well as most of the synoptic model runs. Feel this drier trend is
the way to go.
The local airmass, per 00Z KILX and forecast soundings, is quite
dry, and there is not expected to be significant moisture
advection into the area overnight. In fact, the low level flow in
our area is expected to diminish for a time later tonight, with the
best low level inflow apt to remain into the frontal zone to our
northwest. This is where significant convection has blown up over
the past few hours. The main threat for any precipitation reaching
the forecast area before daybreak is if a significant cold pool
can develop with the storms to the northwest and help them
propagate to the southeast. Even if this were to occur, the storms
would be moving into an increasingly hostile environment and
should weaken significantly with time.
Plan to update to remove PoPs from this evening, and reduce them
overnight, restricting them to locations west of the Illinois
River Valley. Otherwise, only minor tweaks are needed for the
expected hourly trends.
Bak
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
The 06Z TAF forecast becomes rather tricky by late tonight across
the central Illinois terminals. Southerly winds, frequently quite
gusty, should prevail through the period ahead of a slowly
approaching storm system. However, the forecast models continue to
struggle with the details regarding when the precipitation threat
arrives locally as the system draws closer. This also has a
significant impact on how soon conditions fall below VFR.
The low pressure center and frontal system with the storm still
lie well west and north of central Illinois through thenight.
While some of the guidance has precipitation chances arriving
tonight as convective storm complex remnants to our northwest sink
toward the area, confidence in this occurring is low. The better
chance of showers and storms will come later Sunday morning into
midday as the main system approaches the Illinois border from the
west. Tried to time in arrival of the more widespread pre-frontal
precipitation with the best model consensus, and carried no more
than a VCSH mention before then. As the front draws closer heading
into Sunday evening, showers/storms will become more widespread
and heavier, resulting in the development of IFR conditions.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Warm weather to hold over our area through most of Sunday before a
change to much colder weather on Monday. Main forecast concerns will
be with timing of showers and thunderstorms into west central IL
later this evening and over the remainder of the forecast area by
Sunday night with light snow chances rearing its ugly head Monday
evening as the last of the southern stream shortwaves pushes across
the Ohio Valley.
Warm front that raced through our area early this morning became
active just after sunrise with severe storms across northern IL.
That has effectively put a stop to the northward push of the
boundary and that area from far northern IL west-southwest thru
central Iowa will be the focus for additional thunderstorm
development later this afternoon. Further south in our area,
forecast soundings continue to show a capping inversion in place
between 800-700 mb and short term forecast models suggest this
will hold into the evening hours. So with any focusing mechanism
remaining well to our north and the cap in place, POPs late this
afternoon thru the mid evening hours will be low.
Further west and north, with some impressive CAPE and shear values
forecast across Iowa, supercells will likely be the initial storm
mode before transitioning to more of quasi-linear system late
this evening. Question becomes if it does become organized and a
cold pool develops, we will see a shift southeast into our far
northwest counties late this evening. This is supported by the SPC
WRF and HRW-ARW and NMM simulations which quickly consolidates
from any discrete storms in west central Iowa into a fairly decent
line of storms before the cold pool becomes dominant and storms
dissipate as they translate southeast into our area by midnight.
Still the chance that if the storms remain rather un-organized and
do not develop any cold pool, we may not see much if any rain
across our north overnight as the storm movement will remain
mostly east-northeast across Iowa into northern IL. Will continue
to keep the highest POPs across the northwest for tonight with no
precip expected east of I-55.
It still appears we will be able to enjoy one more warm day on Sunday
with our east and southeast counties probably rain free until Sunday
night. The latest ECMWF and NAM-WRF eject a southern stream wave
northeast into the Midwest by late in the day with an increase in
shower and thunderstorm chances from west to east with the highest
during the day mainly west of I55. Moisture transport really picks
up ahead of this wave late in the day with precipitable water values
of 1.25-1.40 inches, well above climatological norms for our area
for the middle of April. All areas should see a decent rain event
Sunday night as the surface wave slowly moves northeast along the
boundary, which will be right across our forecast area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Better Cape and Shear values will be south
of our area with forecast soundings pretty much saturated from the
ground up Sunday night, so the main threat will be with the threat
for heavy rainfall as the heavier bands of rain with isolated storms
move from southwest to northeast. Rainfall totals still look to be
in the 1 to 2 inch range with some isolated higher amounts possible
Sunday night into early Monday as the surface low enhanced the low
level convergence along the slow moving frontal boundary.
Much colder weather will slowly filter in on Monday as the wave
shifts off to our northeast allowing the boundary to make a bit
more progress to our east during the day. May have a tough time
getting temps to budge out of the 40s north, with morning highs
expected in the southeast before temps fall off in the afternoon.
The NAM-WRF and to a certain extent the GFS model suggests additional
energy to push across our area on Monday with temp profiles trending
colder and more supportive of at least a rain/snow mixture by late
afternoon, and especially after dark. However, the better lift looks
to shift away from our area in the evening so precip amounts look to
be very light, but cold enough to support a mix before the precip
shuts down by midnight.
With the slow moving 500 mb trof axis finally shifting off to our
east late Monday night, skies should begin to clear as high
pressure settles in bringing frost/freezing temperatures to most of
our area by Tuesday morning with lows from the mid 20s far north
to the lower 30s southeast. Quiet weather expected the remainder
of the day on Tuesday as the fair weather system drifts across our
area keeping it on the dry and chilly side.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
Several weather systems to affect our area this period but moisture
will be rather limited with the first wave pushing across the Great
Lakes on Thursday. Next wave embedded in the zonal flow arrives
on Saturday with a better supply of moisture ahead of it. As a result,
will add some mentionable POPs into the grids for the start of the
weekend. After the cool start on Wednesday, our upper flow flattens
out enough to allow milder temperatures back into the area for the
end of the week with temperatures closer to normal for the middle
of April.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
EVENING SOUNDING SO FAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP IN
PLACE WHICH IS PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 3 HOURS SHOW NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING BACK TOWARD KOMA AND SOUTH
TO KFNB. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 40 MINUTES...A SEMI
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CONNECT THE SOUTHWEST
IOWA CONVECTION WITH THE NORTHEAST IOWA CONVECTION.
NOWCASTING TOOLS AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE CONVECTION WILL
JUST SKIRT OR CATCH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STARTING AROUND 9-10 PM THERE SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLE UPSCALE GROWTH IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE
LLJ BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
BASED ON CLOUD/RADAR TRENDS AND WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED INTERNALLY
BY TRENDS FROM THE RAP ETC...A MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OR WEST/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TOWARD KEBS.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF NEW CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO
DEVELOP/PUSH CONVECTION VERY SLOWLY INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
WEST OF KDBQ BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
AFTER 7 PM...IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES AND THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A VERY PRONOUNCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM SIOUX CITY
IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS OF 2 PM. THIS FRONT HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ON ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...AND WILL BE AGAIN
THE FOCUS IN A FEW HOURS. THE MORNING ROUND OF SEVERE ELEVATED
STORMS PRODUCED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS A VERY
STRONG PROGRESSIVE DOWN BURST WITH ONE SUPERCELL ALONG HIGHWAY 20
IN STEPHENSON COUNTY. THIS DOWN BURST MAY HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...IS WELL
MIXED AND CONTINUES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...MAKING THIS EASILY THE WARMEST DAY IN MANY MONTHS.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST...AND ANY FURTHER INCREASE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH
CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
TONIGHT WILL SEE STORMS FIRE INITIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...MUCH LIKE EARLIER TODAY. THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD IMPACT OUR FAR NORTHWEST
THROUGH 7 PM. EITHER WAY...IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE. BY LATER IN THE
EVENING...A COLD POOL SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
FRONT...ALLOWING STORMS TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH AS A LINE OR BROKEN
LINE. AT THAT TIME...THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIND...BEFORE
THE LINE STALLS OR RUNS INTO A MORE STOUT CAP/EML STILL PRESENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WHERE EVER THIS OCCURS...THE LINE SHOULD STALL OR
AT LEAST SLOW FOR A POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING/TRAINING STORMS.
THUS...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS NORTHWEST...AS IS
POPS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING IS
JUXTAPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST...OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES EVOLVE...WE CAN GREATLY REFINE
THIS DUAL THREAT. RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH OVER 1
INCH WHERE STORMS LAY OUT VERY LIKELY.
SUNDAY...THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE
MORNING...FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
STRONGER UPPER DIFLUENCE IS FORECAST...BUT LESSER CAPE.
THUS...EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT RAIN RATES OVER 0.5 PER HOUR AT TIMES. WITH STRONG FORCING
ALL DAY...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. IF WE WERE NOT IN DROUGHT...WITH UNFROZEN
GROUND...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY FLASH FLOOD RISK...BUT THAT IS NOT
THE CASE. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND
RIVER FLOODING...IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING SO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE OVERALL
FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS COLDER AIR STARTS GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS HOW FAST DOES THE COLD AIR ARRIVE.
BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED A MIX SHOULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE MONDAY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WARMER GROUND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.
AS MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES...SOLAR INSOLATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS GOES FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND WHERE IT TRACKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
MCS CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA IS GENERATING AREAS OF 40-50
MPH WINDS FOR BRIEF PERIODS ALONG WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
LEAVING A BRIEF RESPITE UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN
LATER THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AS RAIN REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE BROAD AREA OF RAIN
WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE
DURATION OF RAIN TODAY AND THE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AT ANY ONE TIME...HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KS WITH N-NW GRADIENT OVER
KS/NE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR CWA. SNOW PACK HAS RETREATED
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...WHILE VIS SATELLITE INDICATES IT HOLDING ON
OVER PARTS OF NE COLORADO AND ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE WHERE AROUND
INCHES OF SNOW FELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH H3 JET STEAM IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING AND HAS LED TO
CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS NOSE OF JET
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG WITH
THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYER FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA...OTHERWISE WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CU OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS A
BETTER SHOWER WE COULD SEE A FLURRY INSTEAD OF SPRINKLE
THROUGH...BUT I DIDN`T SEE A REASON TO GET THAT CUTE CONSIDERING
CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY LOW ON PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR NE
CWA.
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
W-SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY...CONTINUE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOW PACK COULD STILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH
SW WINDS COMING FROM SNOW FREE LOCATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
MELTING OF SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WEST
AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTING LOWER TD VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A DECREASING TREND IN THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST...SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR WIND/RH CROSSOVER. OF COURSE THERE IS ALSO THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER FUELS WILL BE CURED AFTER RECENT PRECIP
(ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK). WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERLY BRANCH TRIES TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERLY
BRANCH.
THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF
LAGS BEHIND NEARLY 24 HOURS. THIS IS PROVING TO BE TROUBLESOME
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN A
LATE FRIDAY TO LATE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH SOME KIND
OF BLENDED COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION.
BACKTRACKING TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY END UP STAYING MORE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLDER AND WET BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER AS THEY WERE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM THAT
DEPOSITED SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 06KTS BETWEEN 01Z-02Z
WHILE BACKING TO THE WEST. AROUND 09Z SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS
EXPECTED AND WITH THE ADDITION OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY GUSTS OF 25-30KTS EXPECTED.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE BETWEEN 01Z-02Z TO 10KTS FROM
THE WEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY 09Z BUT AN INCREASE
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
401 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.
REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATES WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY DURING THAT
TIME. BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
REGIONS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
AT KMCK...VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY BECAUSE OF ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY FROM SNOW. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SNOW INTENSITY LESSENS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW
AND IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN.
AT KGLD...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND MOST SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH A BAND OF SNOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINAL. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS WERE USED FOR TIMING THE IFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY NEAR
LIFR CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE
04-07Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR.
FOR BOTH TERMINALS...NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AND COULD GUST TO 35
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT 12-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR KSZ001>004-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
20Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave lifting across eastern
KS as another wave digs south towards the four corners region.
This initial wave has sparked a line of thunderstorms to form
along a cold front that is surging southeast through the forecast
area. Much of the short range guidance is pointing towards the
convection to be east of the forecast area by 7 pm, which fits in
with current radar trends. Therefore have lowered pops for this
evening and removed mention of thunder. There is a band of snow
across NEB. The HRRR and RAP suggest the tail end of this precip
may move east along the NEB state line through the evening as the
first shortwave lifts northeast. Precip accumulations with this
should be fairly light as the better mid level frontogenesis stays
mainly to the north. However as the second shortwave comes out of
the Rockies late tonight and through the morning Monday, this
frontogenetical band redevelops south and most guidance is
pointing at a band of snow moving over east central KS. The
frontogenesis looks strong enough for a decent band of snow and
possible accumulations around an inch through late morning Monday.
This will be highly dependent on the intensity of the snowfall
however since ground temps remain relatively warm. If the band
produces higher snowfall rates, some parts of east central KS
could see accumulations a little higher.
In between the convection this afternoon and the frontogenetical
precip overnight, think there will be a lull in the precip and
have tapered pops down this evening. Models show saturation in the
lower levels hinting at the possibility for some drizzle which
could be freezing depending on surface temps. However the
conditions for drizzle do not look to persist for long as some mid
level drying occurs before the next shortwave moves in and
saturates the column. Overall am not to excited about the
prospects for drizzle but can`t rule out the chance so will
include a mention in the forecast.
Lows tonight should fall into the lower 30s due to strong cold air
advection behind the front. Temps in central NEB have already
fallen into the upper 20s suggesting my lows may not be cool
enough. In any case, freezing temps look likely tonight and will
issue as freeze warning as we have entered the locally defined
growing season. Cold air advection persists through the morning
Monday so highs are not expected to warm much. However think
clouds will eventually clear out by the afternoon so some
insolation may help to warm highs into the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Monday night through Wednesday looks dry as the central plains see
dry northwest flow develop ahead of the next wave expected to dig
into the plains by Thursday. The medium range models seem to be in
some agreement with timing of the next wave therefore have trended
pops up for Thursday and Thursday night. There does not appear to
be much instability with this system as warm moist are is slow to
return. However there does appear to be another shot of cold air
moving in Thursday night which could cause a brief change over to
snow before the precip comes to an end. Therefore have maintained
a mention of rain and snow for Thursday night.
While less certain, there are indications of a southern stream
wave trying to phase with a northern stream wave over the area
Sunday. Confidence is low since the GFS struggles to advect
moisture this far north. However with the ECMWF breaking out some
QPF, will insert some low (20-30%) POPs Saturday night and Sunday.
A hard freeze looks likely Tuesday morning as skies clear out and
surface ridging moves over the region. Therefore have continued
with lows in the lower to middle 20s and will post a freeze
warning through Tuesday morning too. Southerly flow returns for
Wednesday helping to moderate the cool temps before the next cold
front moves in Thursday and knocks temps back down into the 40s
and 50s for Thursday and Friday. With a split flow for the weekend
and the northern stream remaining north, temps should moderate
into the 60s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Limiting conditions should dominate the forecast with cold front
passing MHK recently and then TOP and FOE around 20Z. TSRA ongoing
and should persist for a few hours with instability waning with
time. Higher confidence in IFR cigs versus precipitation in the
bulk of the forecast. Will go ahead with -SN inclusion given for a
few hours given model trends. VFR should return by the end of this
forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-020-021-
034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.
REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS LIFT INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTHWEST AND RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING ANOTHER FEW INCHES
OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH GFS FORECAST OF UP TO A FOOT LOOKS
OVERDONE. DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS MUCH AS ISC
ALLOWED...BUT WITH CLOUDS/UPSLOPE/PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WARMING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REBUILDS ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME AND MAY
BE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
AT KMCK...VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY BECAUSE OF ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY FROM SNOW. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SNOW INTENSITY LESSENS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW
AND IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN.
AT KGLD...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND MOST SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH A BAND OF SNOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINAL. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS WERE USED FOR TIMING THE IFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY NEAR
LIFR CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE
04-07Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR.
FOR BOTH TERMINALS...NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AND COULD GUST TO 35
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT 12-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR KSZ001>004-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
STILL LOOKING LIKE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AS EARLY AS 1-2PM...GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO WICHITA TO HILLSBORO...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...BUT
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME HEATING WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ROTATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (GOLFBALL-TENNIS BALL SIZE)...ALTHOUGH
LACK OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 700-500MB SHEAR
SHOULD PREVENT GIANT HAIL FROM OCCURRING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
GO LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...AND FLOW ALOFT
TENDING TO BACK WITH HEIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION GOES LINEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL TEND TO DECREASE...WITH QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
60-70 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. THINKING ALL ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 7-9 PM. FURTHERMORE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MERGE AND
GO LINEAR.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF I-135
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE ERRATIC WINDS. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS AROUND 00Z. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST...ALONG
WITH HIGH IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS. AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
OUT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD EVEN SEE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 34 43 24 / 40 40 50 0
HUTCHINSON 71 31 44 24 / 40 60 30 0
NEWTON 77 31 42 24 / 40 40 40 0
ELDORADO 78 33 42 25 / 60 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 36 44 25 / 60 40 40 0
RUSSELL 55 29 46 23 / 60 60 10 0
GREAT BEND 56 28 46 22 / 60 60 20 0
SALINA 66 31 46 23 / 50 60 20 0
MCPHERSON 70 30 44 24 / 50 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 79 38 45 26 / 80 50 50 0
CHANUTE 78 36 44 24 / 80 40 50 0
IOLA 75 36 43 24 / 80 40 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 79 37 45 24 / 80 50 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
STILL LOOKING LIKE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AS EARLY AS 1-2PM...GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO WICHITA TO HILLSBORO...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...BUT
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME HEATING WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ROTATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (GOLFBALL-TENNIS BALL SIZE)...ALTHOUGH
LACK OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 700-500MB SHEAR
SHOULD PREVENT GIANT HAIL FROM OCCURRING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
GO LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...AND FLOW ALOFT
TENDING TO BACK WITH HEIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION GOES LINEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL TEND TO DECREASE...WITH QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
60-70 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. THINKING ALL ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 7-9 PM. FURTHERMORE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MERGE AND
GO LINEAR.
ADK
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AN UNSETTLED AVIATION FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
TODAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST
OF SYSTEM ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF FOR THIS
CHANCE. COULD SEE A TEMPO GROUP ADDED LATER TODAY FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS
AREA AS WELL.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH KRSL AND KSLN AT THIS TIME...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS DEVELOPING. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH INTO KHUT/KICT BY AROUND
16-19Z WITH A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME
POST FRONTAL SHRA/-RA AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
COULD SEE THE RAIN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR
KCNU BY AROUND 09Z/MON. AS THIS SNOW CHANCE DEVELOPS...COULD SEE
SOME CIGS FLIRT WITH IFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 34 43 24 / 40 40 50 0
HUTCHINSON 71 31 44 24 / 40 60 30 0
NEWTON 77 31 42 24 / 40 40 40 0
ELDORADO 78 33 42 25 / 60 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 36 44 25 / 60 40 40 0
RUSSELL 55 29 46 23 / 60 60 10 0
GREAT BEND 56 28 46 22 / 60 60 20 0
SALINA 66 31 46 23 / 50 60 20 0
MCPHERSON 70 30 44 24 / 50 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 79 38 45 26 / 80 50 50 0
CHANUTE 78 36 44 24 / 80 40 50 0
IOLA 75 36 43 24 / 80 40 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 79 37 45 24 / 80 50 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
655 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AN UNSETTLED AVIATION FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
TODAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST
OF SYSTEM ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF FOR THIS
CHANCE. COULD SEE A TEMPO GROUP ADDED LATER TODAY FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS
AREA AS WELL.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH KRSL AND KSLN AT THIS TIME...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS DEVELOPING. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH INTO KHUT/KICT BY AROUND
16-19Z WITH A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME
POST FRONTAL SHRA/-RA AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
COULD SEE THE RAIN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR
KCNU BY AROUND 09Z/MON. AS THIS SNOW CHANCE DEVELOPS...COULD SEE
SOME CIGS FLIRT WITH IFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 33 43 24 / 60 50 50 0
HUTCHINSON 75 30 44 24 / 60 60 30 0
NEWTON 78 31 42 24 / 70 50 40 0
ELDORADO 79 33 42 25 / 80 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 35 44 25 / 80 40 40 0
RUSSELL 58 29 46 23 / 70 70 10 0
GREAT BEND 61 28 46 22 / 70 70 20 0
SALINA 67 30 46 23 / 80 70 20 0
MCPHERSON 72 30 44 24 / 60 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 78 38 45 26 / 80 90 50 0
CHANUTE 77 36 44 24 / 80 80 50 0
IOLA 76 36 43 24 / 80 80 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 77 37 45 24 / 80 80 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-
067.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SET TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUN
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND. STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 18Z...WITH THESE STORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING SE KS(KCNU). SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE OUT OF SE KS BY
03Z. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAINFALL. AFTER 03Z FEEL SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL KS WITH KRSL AND KSLN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME SNOW BEFORE 06Z. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
LAWSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 33 43 24 / 60 50 50 0
HUTCHINSON 75 30 44 24 / 60 60 30 0
NEWTON 78 31 42 24 / 70 50 40 0
ELDORADO 79 33 42 25 / 80 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 35 44 25 / 80 40 40 0
RUSSELL 58 29 46 23 / 70 70 10 0
GREAT BEND 61 28 46 22 / 70 70 20 0
SALINA 67 30 46 23 / 80 70 20 0
MCPHERSON 72 30 44 24 / 60 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 78 38 45 26 / 80 90 50 0
CHANUTE 77 36 44 24 / 80 80 50 0
IOLA 76 36 43 24 / 80 80 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 77 37 45 24 / 80 80 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1133 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
UPDATED TO ADJUST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT POPS TIED CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH MEANT REMOVING THEM FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND ALL OF SE KS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BUILDING IN
SOME CAPPING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE 17Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
12.15Z RAP FORECAST OF THESE FIELDS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING OVER 25 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. THE 15Z
HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...AS DOES THE 12.12Z WRF-NMM. THIS IS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. AT THAT TIME...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS IS ALSO THE
BEST TIME FOR A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
HAVE COME DOWN BY THEN...JUST NOT SURE THEY WILL HAVE COME DOWN
ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
WE ARE LOOKING AT DISCREET SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. BELIEVE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE HIGH GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANVIL SEEDING AND THE 0-10KM SHEAR
IS GREATER THAN 90 KNOTS. THINK THAT BASEBALL HAIL OR LARGER AS A
MAX HAIL SIZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...SLOWLY ADVANCING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS IT
PASSES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTS WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BY SUNDAY AT 18Z...THE FRONT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM
EMPORIA TO WINFIELD. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS
WILL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS. FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS...WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A RAPID DEVELOP OF STORMS...WITH STORMS BEING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR FASHION. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.
AS SAID EARLIER...AS THE FRONT EXITS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE
IN. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THE WIND COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY NIGHT IN LINE FOR
A REASONABLE FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO. WITH ALL THE COMPLEX WEATHER
GOING ON AHEAD OF THIS THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATTER SHIFTS TO
CONTEMPLATE.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO POSITION...STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DANGEROUS
DAY FOR FIRES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE GULF OPENS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
RATHER STRONG AND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SET TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUN
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND. STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 18Z...WITH THESE STORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING SE KS(KCNU). SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE OUT OF SE KS BY
03Z. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAINFALL. AFTER 03Z FEEL SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL KS WITH KRSL AND KSLN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME SNOW BEFORE 06Z. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
LAWSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE NEXT REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR GRASSLAND WILL NOT BE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
THAT SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SPURN MORE GROWTH OF GRASSES...AS WE
TREND TOWARD LESSER CURING.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 76 34 45 / 10 60 50 50
HUTCHINSON 62 69 31 45 / 20 60 60 40
NEWTON 64 74 31 43 / 20 70 50 50
ELDORADO 65 75 33 44 / 10 80 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 77 35 45 / 10 80 40 50
RUSSELL 56 56 28 45 / 20 70 70 20
GREAT BEND 56 58 28 44 / 20 60 70 30
SALINA 60 64 31 46 / 30 60 70 30
MCPHERSON 61 67 30 44 / 30 60 60 40
COFFEYVILLE 65 74 39 45 / 10 60 90 40
CHANUTE 64 73 37 44 / 10 60 80 40
IOLA 64 72 36 44 / 10 70 80 40
PARSONS-KPPF 65 74 38 45 / 10 70 80 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
108 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS TO
BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR FLIGHT
WEATHER EXPECT. TSTMS WILL BRING FLIGHT HAZARDS...INCLUDING
SEVERE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS. ALSO...
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER SHOULD END BY 06Z MOST AREAS...
HOWEVER CIGS MAY REMAIN IFR IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 10Z IN WESTERN AREAS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE STORMS SHOULD END AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. SURFACE
WIND SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25 KTS PREFRONTAL AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 POST
FRONTAL MONDAY MORNING. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTN GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. STORMS INCREASING ACROSS DALLAS METRO...AND THESE WILL
TRACK INTO NW CWA...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THERE. EXPANDED
CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...LEAVING ONLY EXTREME EASTERN
CWA IN SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS STILL SHOWING STORMS BECOME MORE
INTENSE DURG AFTN...AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO EASILY ACHIEVE 80 DEGREE FCST...AND STG LOW LVL SHEAR ALREADY
IN PLACE. SO SVR ALREADY IN FCST REMAINS JUSTIFIED. LAKE WIND
AGAIN TODAY APPEARS MARGINAL...WILL DECIDE LATER THIS AFTN WHETHER
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE THE AREAS TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR
35HDFT-4KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS INTO THE TX TERMINAL WHERE HRRR-3KM
REFLECTIVITY DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. WOULD OBVIOUSLY EXPECT LOWER
CEILINGS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS GOING FOR THESE TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LATER
TODAY...MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL
THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR TERMINALS UNTIL
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON.
UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE
13-16KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING 22-25KTS ACROSS MOST
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 30KTS BY AFTERNOON
AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS GOING AS NEW CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS N TX/S OK IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT MERGER AND THAT CONVECTION WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 64 66 36 62 37 / 60 40 20 10 10
MLU 66 70 36 60 36 / 60 50 40 10 10
DEQ 54 56 31 61 32 / 70 30 10 10 10
TXK 58 60 34 61 37 / 70 30 10 10 10
ELD 63 64 33 60 33 / 70 50 30 10 10
TYR 56 61 34 62 39 / 50 30 10 10 10
GGG 59 61 35 62 37 / 50 30 10 10 10
LFK 65 67 36 63 38 / 50 40 20 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTN GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. STORMS INCREASING ACROSS DALLAS METRO...AND THESE WILL
TRACK INTO NW CWA...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THERE. EXPANDED
CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...LEAVING ONLY EXTREME EASTERN
CWA IN SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS STILL SHOWING STORMS BECOME MORE
INTENSE DURG AFTN...AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO EASILY ACHIEVE 80 DEGREE FCST...AND STG LOW LVL SHEAR ALREADY
IN PLACE. SO SVR ALREADY IN FCST REMAINS JUSTIFIED. LAKE WIND
AGAIN TODAY APPEARS MARGINAL...WILL DECIDE LATER THIS AFTN WHETHER
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE THE AREAS TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR
35HDFT-4KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS INTO THE TX TERMINAL WHERE HRRR-3KM
REFLECTIVITY DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. WOULD OBVIOUSLY EXPECT LOWER
CEILINGS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS GOING FOR THESE TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LATER
TODAY...MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL
THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR TERMINALS UNTIL
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON.
UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE
13-16KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING 22-25KTS ACROSS MOST
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 30KTS BY AFTERNOON
AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS GOING AS NEW CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS N TX/S OK IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT MERGER AND THAT CONVECTION WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 66 36 62 / 50 60 40 20 10
MLU 80 66 70 36 60 / 20 60 50 40 10
DEQ 75 54 56 31 61 / 60 70 30 10 10
TXK 78 58 60 34 61 / 60 70 30 10 10
ELD 78 63 64 33 60 / 40 70 50 30 10
TYR 79 56 61 34 62 / 50 50 30 10 10
GGG 79 59 61 35 62 / 50 50 30 10 10
LFK 81 65 67 36 63 / 50 50 40 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
635 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE THE AREAS TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR
35HDFT-4KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS INTO THE TX TERMINAL WHERE HRRR-3KM
REFLECTIVITY DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. WOULD OBVIOUSLY EXPECT LOWER
CEILINGS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS GOING FOR THESE TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LATER
TODAY...MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL
THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR TERMINALS UNTIL
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON.
UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE
13-16KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING 22-25KTS ACROSS MOST
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 30KTS BY AFTERNOON
AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS GOING AS NEW CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS N TX/S OK IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT MERGER AND THAT CONVECTION WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 66 36 62 / 30 60 40 20 10
MLU 80 66 70 36 60 / 20 60 50 40 10
DEQ 75 54 56 31 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
TXK 78 58 60 34 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
ELD 78 63 64 33 60 / 20 70 50 30 10
TYR 79 56 61 34 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
GGG 79 59 61 35 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
LFK 81 65 67 36 63 / 30 50 40 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 66 36 62 / 30 60 40 20 10
MLU 80 66 70 36 60 / 20 60 50 40 10
DEQ 75 54 56 31 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
TXK 78 58 60 34 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
ELD 78 63 64 33 60 / 20 70 50 30 10
TYR 79 56 61 34 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
GGG 79 59 61 35 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
LFK 81 65 67 36 63 / 30 50 40 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
548 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE: 1) INCREASING POPS TO
100 PERCENT FOR TNGT FOR SPCLY THE N PTN OF THE FA XPCTD TO GET
A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP OF GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH LATER
TNGT...2) DELAY THE CHG OVR TO RN ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA A
COUPLE OF MORE HRS LATER INTO THE ERLY EVE BASED ON HRRR MODEL
FCST RADAR REF WHICH SHOWS BRIGHT BANDING CLRG THE ST JOHN VLY
DURING THE MID EVE HRS. THIS RESULTED IN REDUCING SNFL IN THE
CURRENT 18-24Z TM FRAME OVR PARTICULARLY NE PTNS OF THE FA...
BUT ADDING A LITTLE MORE IN THE 00-06Z TM FRAME OVR THE FAR
N TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE SLIGHT DELAY IN THE CHGOVR
TO ALL RN. MAX SN RATIOS IN EVEN THE ALL SN PRECIP TYPES WERE HELD
DOWN TO 8:1 GIVEN TEMPS SLOWLY RISING TO AND ABV FZG ACROSS THE
FAR N OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LASTLY...3) LATEST OBSVD HRLY TEMPS
WERE MERGED TO FCST MSLY MODEL TEMPS THRU THE NGT TO RE-CONSTRUCT
THE FCST HRLY TEMP TREND ACROSS THE REGION TO MON MORN...WHICH
MSLY FEATURED SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVRNGT.
ORGNL DISC: LOW PRES CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT LAKES W/ A
WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN ONT AND NRN NYS THEN SEWRD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ACROSS OUR REGION TO THE N OF THIS WARM
FRONT...VERY CHILLY AIR W/ OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW HAS
ACCUMULATED UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE NRN AREAS THIS AFTN
AND THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS BEFORE MILD AIR
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT UP ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE INITIAL
SURGE OF OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN PASSES NXT FEW HRS...ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE ADVERTISES ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY NRN AREAS LATER THIS EVE BEFORE IT SLIDES E OF THE AREA
ERLY MON AM. THIS SECOND SLUG SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
BUT COULD STILL BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N FOR A PD THIS
EVE...
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WARM FRONT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWRD UP ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TNGT INTO MON AM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH
WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MON AFTN. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE W/ TEMPS ON MON TO BURST INTO THE 60S
MOST AREAS AND PSBLY EVEN TOUCH 70 IN A FEW AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE RAPID RATE OF SNOW MELT WHICH
WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FLOODING CONCERNS AND THESE ARE ADDRESSED
IN MORE DETAIL IN THE HYDRO SECTION BLO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SNOW MELT AND CONTINUED ICE MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND ICE MELT/MOVEMENT ON AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION REGRADING HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASING
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THEN
MODELS BEGIN FALLING OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WE GET OUT TOWARD SATURDAY.
GFS IS INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT PROGRESSING EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STAYING SPLIT AND GENERALLY GIVING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. SINCE WE HAVE PLENTY TIME TO
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH LITTLE NEED FOR MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FAR N W/ SOME SNOW W/ MVFR
CENTRAL/SRN AREAS ATTM... IFR SHOULD DVLP SRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN/EVE W/ IFR CONDS DVLPG AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE LATE EVE
HRS. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR THE THRU TNGT INTO MON AS A VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA...
SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN DEVELOPING RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A BRISK SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCA CONDS GOING
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TUE...
SHORT TERM: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM AT TIMES IN
RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONT FLOOD WATCHES... MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
HAS SLOWED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF BUT AREA RIVERS/STREAM CONT TO SLOWLY
RISE. THIS TREND SHOULD ONLY INCREASE OVER THE NXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VERY MILD CONDS ON MON AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY S OF THE AREA LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA AS
WARM FRONT ERLY MON. IN ADDITION...RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TNGT WILL ADD ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF .25-.75 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BY ERLY MON AM. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN THREAT
PD FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING REMAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MILDER TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
MELT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISING RIVER
LEVELS WHICH COULD CAUSE ICE TO MOVE AND POSSIBLY JAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES
AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT CONTINUING. ALL THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS AND RISING RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAY ME
547 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LLVL CLOUDS AND SHRA CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD. EXPECT THAT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP FOR COASTAL
ME. MUCH OF NH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE NIGHT WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FOG. AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT LATE THIS
EVENING SOME SHRA OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE.
LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS...SO HAVE ADDED SOME
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST GOT A REPORT OF SOME GRAUPEL OUT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN WRN ME. THESE SHRA WILL CROSS THE CAPITAL
AREA AND MID COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANY PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN BY 5 OR 6 PM...AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY.
TOUGH PART OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS WHERE AND WHETHER THE
MARINE/COLD LYR MAXES OUT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING
IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S IN
SOME SPOTS. IN AREAS THAT DO BREAK OUT...MINS TONIGHT WILL DROP
OFF SOME. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST AND AND IN THE ERN INTERIOR
ZONES...WHERE THE MARINE LYR IN ENTRENCHED...IT SEEMS LESS LKLY
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...AND LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT. HERE..MINS ARE LKLY TO OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET...AS TEMPS WILL LKLY RISE VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE LINGERING STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SSW FLOW TO BREAK OUT MOST EVERYWHERE BY MID-LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SKIES TO BE SUNNY7 TO P/SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH STRONG SW FLOW MIXING DOWN VERY WARM AIR IN THE 925-850MB...WHICH
IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALONG
THE COAST S OF CASCO BAY...WILL LKLY SEE SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS
TO THE S...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALONG THE MID
COAST..HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES INTO WRN
NY MON NIGHT. AND THE SSW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS ON THE MILDER SIDE...50S S...AND GENERALLY 40S
ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS LKLY TO ROLL
IN MON EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL LKLY MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE TUESDAY
MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PROBLEMS OF AREA RIVERS AS ONE TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL COMBINES WITH RAPID SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS
ON AREA RIVES. TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY START TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHTER GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS NORTH
AND 20S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RESULTING IN TWO FAIRLY NICE DAYS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WILL
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS SHOULD ALSO FEATURE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING AND WILL LIKELY BRING ALONG ENOUGH COLDER AIR TO
PRODUCE SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COASTAL TERMINAL AND KAUG WILL DROP TO IFR OR LOWER
IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY. AT KCON/KLEB/KHIE...WILL SEE SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...PROBABLY REACHING IFR...BUT PROB NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER VFR MON AFTERNOON...THE
COASTAL TERMINALS LOOK TO FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AGAIN IN
STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNSET...AND THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MON NIGHT. PERSISTENT SW FLOW
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TUE...AND WILL FRESHEN LATE MONDAY AND
MON NIGHT...APPROACHING GALES.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION RAPID SNOW MELT AND SOME PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP
MOST RIVERS RUNNING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. ICE MOVEMENT WILL ADD
TO THE UNPRECICTABILITY OF WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND
MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WENESDAY AS POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITHA COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
545 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LLVL CLOUDS AND SHRA CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD. EXPECT THAT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP FOR COASTAL
ME. MUCH OF NH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE NIGHT WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FOG. AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT LATE THIS
EVENING SOME SHRA OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE.
LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS...SO HAVE ADDED SOME
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST GOT A REPORT OF SOME GRAUPEL OUT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN WRN ME. THESE SHRA WILL CROSS THE CAPITAL
AREA AND MID COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANY PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN BY 5 OR 6 PM...AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY.
TOUGH PART OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS WHERE AND WHETHER THE
MARINE/COLD LYR MAXES OUT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING
IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S IN
SOME SPOTS. IN AREAS THAT DO BREAK OUT...MINS TONIGHT WILL DROP
OFF SOME. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST AND AND IN THE ERN INTERIOR
ZONES...WHERE THE MARINE LYR IN ENTRENCHED...IT SEEMS LESS LKLY
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...AND LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT. HERE..MINS ARE LKLY TO OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET...AS TEMPS WILL LKLY RISE VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE LINGERING STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SSW FLOW TO BREAK OUT MOST EVERYWHERE BY MID-LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SKIES TO BE SUNNY7 TO P/SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH STRONG SW FLOW MIXING DOWN VERY WARM AIR IN THE 925-850MB...WHICH
IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALONG
THE COAST S OF CASCO BAY...WILL LKLY SEE SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS
TO THE S...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALONG THE MID
COAST..HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES INTO WRN
NY MON NIGHT. AND THE SSW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS ON THE MILDER SIDE...50S S...AND GENERALLY 40S
ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS LKLY TO ROLL
IN MON EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL LKLY MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE TUESDAY
MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PROBLEMS OF AREA RIVERS AS ONE TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL COMBINES WITH RAPID SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS
ON AREA RIVES. TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY START TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHTER GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS NORTH
AND 20S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RESULTING IN TWO FAIRLY NICE DAYS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WILL
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS SHOULD ALSO FEATURE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING AND WILL LIKELY BRING ALONG ENOUGH COLDER AIR TO
PRODUCE SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COASTAL TERMINAL AND KAUG WILL DROP TO IFR OR LOWER
IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY. AT KCON/KLEB/KHIE...WILL SEE SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...PROBABLY REACHING IFR...BUT PROB NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER VFR MON AFTERNOON...THE
COASTAL TERMINALS LOOK TO FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AGAIN IN
STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNSET...AND THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MON NIGHT. PERSISTENT SW FLOW
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TUE...AND WILL FRESHEN LATE MONDAY AND
MON NIGHT...APPROACHING GALES.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
420 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES IS PARKED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
SITUATED DEEP INTO THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND IN SLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. SFC DEWPOINTS HAD INCREASED INTO THE 50S OVNGT.
11-3.9U SAT AND SFC OBS AT NAK/NHK CAPTURED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHSPK. THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARW-
WRF4N MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS THOUGH
APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW VSBYS AND FOG. STRATUS SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE WRN SHORE AND WILL MIX OUT BY MID MRNG.
YDA WAS WARM BUT FCST H8-H9 TEMPS TDA ABOUT 3C WARMER...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A BAY BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT
TEMP/DENSITY GRADIENT INLAND AND OVER THE CHSPK BAY WHERE WATERS
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. SYNOPTIC SLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE COOL MARINE AIR FROM ADVECTING MUCH INLAND. TRIED TO
REFLECT THIS IN FCST TEMP/WIND GRIDS- HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WRN SHORE OF MD. LOW- AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS TDA.
HIPRES WILL RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE TNGT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS TNGT. MOIST SLY WINDS 5-15
MPH WILL PERSIST AFTER SUNSET...KEEPING TEMPS MILD TNGT AND FOG
POTENTIAL LOW. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FAVORED THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECT MET/NAM GUIDANCE. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR
THE CHSPK BAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
MON. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFY CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY AND SLY LLVL
JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...POPS WERE
KEPT LOW AND COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE MTS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT
REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY PRESENT ON MON DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LVL CAPPING INVERSION. THE MID-LVL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WRN
HIGHLANDS...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WERE MENTIONED. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MON NIGHT...THE 00Z/03Z ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN WAS ADVERTIZED YESTERDAY...SO
THE CWA WILL STILL BE IN A MILD SOUTHERLY REGIME THIS PERIOD.
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAYTIME. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT
WITH AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH CWA WIDE...WITH SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
INSTABILITY NOT HIGH OWING TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION INSTABILITY OF 100-500 J/KG...SO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...AND
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...COLD AIR ALOFT COULD MEAN SOME
SNOW MIXED IN WITH SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING APPRECIABLE EXPECTED FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. 85H TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -10C RANGE LATE TUE NIGHT.
STRONG CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WED...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
AND AND BE OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF WED. TEMPERATURES ON WED
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGF WITH BLUSTRY
WINDS TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FORM A RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THUR...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WED.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT MORE ON FRI.
SAT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS DRY FOR SAT...BUT VARIOUS MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...OR GREAT LAKES...
DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE ONE LOOKS AT. FOR NOW WILL DOWNPLAY
PRECIP CHANCES AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVNGT ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK
BAY...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT MTN. CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AT MTN AND TO MVFR AT BWI. TERMINALS FARTHER WEST WILL NOT
BE IMPACTED BY ERY MRNG STRATUS. VFR TDA AND THIS EVE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ERY MON MRNG AGAIN NEAR THE BAY. VFR ON MON WITH
SLY WINDS 15-25 KT.
MON NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ON TUE...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BRIEF PDS OF TSTMS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS VFR EXPECTED
LATE TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY WINDS HAD DIMINISHED OVNGT TO UNDER 15 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTN AS MIXING DEEPENS. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTN...TNGT AND NOW MON WITH SLY WINDS 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...
WINDS MAY RELAX BRIEFLY LATE TNGT OUTSIDE OF THOSE MARINE LOCATIONS
EXPOSED TO SLY CHANNELING.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NEAR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE TUE EVENING AND EARLY WED MORNING ON THE
LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY LATE WED. THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
LIKELY AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES DECREASED LAST NGT AND ARE NOW NEAR
ASTRONOMICAL NORM AS A RESULT OF SLY FLOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...LEADING TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE
FOOT BY TNGT AND MON. CBOFS KEEPS ALL WRN SHORE FCST POINTS BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD THRU TNGT. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND A FULL MOON UPCOMING...
WATER LEVELS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD CRITERIA AT THE MORE
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT. WILL ADD MENTION TO THE
HWO.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...SMZ
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...JRK/SMZ
MARINE...JRK/SMZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
FOCUSED MAINLY ON MID WEEK AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED
SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST USED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED LES IS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT/TUE AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE -18C TO -20C WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS. INCOMING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LIMITED...THE MAIN ATTENTION IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
TUE NIGHT. BASICALLY...THERE ARE TWO CAMPS THE MODELS ARE IN. THE
12Z/13 GFS 12Z/13 AND GLOBAL GEM PHASE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
SHORTWAVE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH DEEPENS
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DIRECTS A
SECOND SHORTWAVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA THAT
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CWA WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. THIS IDEA RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU GENERALLY OF 1-2 INCHES /EVEN BLEND OF THE GEM AND GFS/.
THE 00Z/13 ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE TROUGH AND FIRST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH BRINGS THAT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW S OF THE
CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH MUCH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ON THE N SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW OF UP TO 0.6 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. MODELS DO SHOW
SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW S AND MOSTLY SNOW N. AS FOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE ECMWF DID SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY UNTIL THE LAST
RUN...WHICH TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER THE GFS. THE GLOBAL GEM HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS. THIS BEING SAID...STILL HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AS THE HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS/GEM WILL BE
VERY DEPENDENT ON MANY OTHER FEATURES...AND FORECASTING MORE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS IS HARD TO JUSTIFY WITHOUT BETTER
CONFIDENCE. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO/EHWO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. ON THE HIGH EXTREME FOR
QPF...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT /AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY/ WILL JUST MENTION MODERATE AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT IWD WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA. A SFC
LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SAW WILL BE IN THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN
AREA AND EXPECT A RETURN OF SOME SN/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...SNOWMELT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
MAY STOP ALTOGETHER OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS. GIVEN ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH 4-9 INCHES OF
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS THE
WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OCCUR JUST PRECEEDING THE LONG TERM. KEPT HIGHER LIKELY POPS
OVER EAST THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY AS LAST PUSH OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE MAY GENERATE UP TO 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1 INCH OF WET SNOW. AWAY FM THIS AREA OF
SNOW...HAVE JUST SOME SMALL CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GAPS IN WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST AND OVERALL WILL BE SEEING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. QUITE COOL...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C
ON TUESDAY IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGHING. EVEN WITH GAPS OF OPEN
WATER OVER ESPECIALLY WEST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIR IS DRY IN
THE LARGER SCALE. SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V
LOOK...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO THE THIN MOIST LAYER AROUND
H85. BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...BUT EVEN THIS AFFECT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS LARGER SCALE
LOW-LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MOST NOTEABLE WILL BE
THE COLD...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING TO THE UPR TEENS OR
LOWER 20S BY LATE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 DEGREES...EVEN OVER SCNTRL. NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL END UP 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOL TEMPS FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY TEENS EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT
ANY INTERIOR LOCATION ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT CLEARS OUT BRIEFLY AND
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS STILL SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS OVER ITS LAST 5 RUNS BACK TO
00Z ON 12 APRIL. ECMWF RATHER INSISTENT INDICATING WIDESPREAD QPF
WILL BE MORE FROM DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
CWA TO LK SUPERIOR. GFS IDEA IS MORE OR LESS SUPPORTED BY LAST
COUPLE GEM-NH RUNS AND 12Z/12 APRIL RUN OF UKMET. DIVING IN MORE IT
APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS LOOK SIMILAR IN THE
LARGER SCALE /LEAD SHORTWAVE INITIALIZING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE STRONGER/LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA/ THEY DIFFER IN HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. GFS IS SLOWER TO PHASE THUS BRINGS SFC LOW
FARTHER EAST INITIALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PHASES QUICKER AND LIFTS THE
LOW MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EMERGE OUT OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS OF PRIMARY MODELS
INDICATES HIGH CHANCES OVER CWA...BEGINNING VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS ALL CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EASTERN CWA. PTYPE MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS OVER SCNTRL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST CWA PER BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3 G/KG INDICATE
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN
OF ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS/GEM-NH IDEAS. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF HWOMQT NOW THOUGH SINCE AS THIS IS THE FIRST
ECMWF RUN TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES BY FRIDAY AS RECENT RUNS OF GFS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TOWARD 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS UPPER LAKES. ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
ALL WHILE THE GEM-NH SHOWS SOME IDEA THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP...
JUST NOT AS STRONG AS GFS. CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS
INPUT... GIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MANUALLY
TWEAKED THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT ALONE OTHERWISE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED TEMPS INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHETHER
ANY SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY. IF SO...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF NOT...INLAND AREAS AWAY FM
THE LAKES COULD REACH LOWER 50S ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS H85
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT IWD WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA. A SFC
LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SAW WILL BE IN THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN
AREA AND EXPECT A RETURN OF SOME SN/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
RIVER HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS AT RKLM4/FRDM4 AND EVEN AT
MSQM4 OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BROKEN AND RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF. AS OF THIS MORNING...NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM THE ICE
JAMS. SEEMS THAT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK /HIGHS 20S TO
30S WITH LOWS WELL BLO FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/...WE
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE END OF THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH
4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS
THAT WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OCCUR JUST PRECEEDING THE LONG TERM. KEPT HIGHER LIKELY POPS
OVER EAST THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY AS LAST PUSH OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE MAY GENERATE UP TO 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1 INCH OF WET SNOW. AWAY FM THIS AREA OF
SNOW...HAVE JUST SOME SMALL CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GAPS IN WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST AND OVERALL WILL BE SEEING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. QUITE COOL...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C
ON TUESDAY IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGHING. EVEN WITH GAPS OF OPEN
WATER OVER ESPECIALLY WEST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIR IS DRY IN
THE LARGER SCALE. SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V
LOOK...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO THE THIN MOIST LAYER AROUND
H85. BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...BUT EVEN THIS AFFECT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS LARGER SCALE
LOW-LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MOST NOTEABLE WILL BE
THE COLD...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING TO THE UPR TEENS OR
LOWER 20S BY LATE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 DEGREES...EVEN OVER SCNTRL. NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL END UP 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOL TEMPS FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY TEENS EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT
ANY INTERIOR LOCATION ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT CLEARS OUT BRIEFLY AND
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS STILL SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS OVER ITS LAST 5 RUNS BACK TO
00Z ON 12 APRIL. ECMWF RATHER INSISTENT INDICATING WIDESPREAD QPF
WILL BE MORE FROM DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
CWA TO LK SUPERIOR. GFS IDEA IS MORE OR LESS SUPPORTED BY LAST
COUPLE GEM-NH RUNS AND 12Z/12 APRIL RUN OF UKMET. DIVING IN MORE IT
APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS LOOK SIMILAR IN THE
LARGER SCALE /LEAD SHORTWAVE INITIALIZING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE STRONGER/LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA/ THEY DIFFER IN HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. GFS IS SLOWER TO PHASE THUS BRINGS SFC LOW
FARTHER EAST INITIALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PHASES QUICKER AND LIFTS THE
LOW MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EMERGE OUT OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS OF PRIMARY MODELS
INDICATES HIGH CHANCES OVER CWA...BEGINNING VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS ALL CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EASTERN CWA. PTYPE MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS OVER SCNTRL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST CWA PER BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3 G/KG INDICATE
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN
OF ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS/GEM-NH IDEAS. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF HWOMQT NOW THOUGH SINCE AS THIS IS THE FIRST
ECMWF RUN TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES BY FRIDAY AS RECENT RUNS OF GFS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TOWARD 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS UPPER LAKES. ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
ALL WHILE THE GEM-NH SHOWS SOME IDEA THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP...
JUST NOT AS STRONG AS GFS. CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS
INPUT... GIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MANUALLY
TWEAKED THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT ALONE OTHERWISE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED TEMPS INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHETHER
ANY SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY. IF SO...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF NOT...INLAND AREAS AWAY FM
THE LAKES COULD REACH LOWER 50S ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS H85
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH AN UPSLOPE E WIND WITHIN SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT VLIFR/BLO LANDING
MINS TO PERSIST AT CMX/SAW THROUGH MID MORNING. IWD MAY ALSO DROP
BACK TO IFR AS NW UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SFC LOW THAT IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE
OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN AREA...SOME SN/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN TO SAW THIS EVENING. BUT SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS FCST THE
HEAVIER PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE SE...WILL HAVE MFR CONDITIONS THAT
DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
RIVER HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS AT RKLM4/FRDM4 AND EVEN AT
MSQM4 OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BROKEN AND RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF. AS OF THIS MORNING...NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM THE ICE
JAMS. SEEMS THAT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK /HIGHS 20S TO
30S WITH LOWS WELL BLO FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/...WE
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE END OF THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH
4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS
THAT WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OCCUR JUST PRECEEDING THE LONG TERM. KEPT HIGHER LIKELY POPS
OVER EAST THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY AS LAST PUSH OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE MAY GENERATE UP TO 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1 INCH OF WET SNOW. AWAY FM THIS AREA OF
SNOW...HAVE JUST SOME SMALL CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GAPS IN WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST AND OVERALL WILL BE SEEING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. QUITE COOL...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C
ON TUESDAY IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGHING. EVEN WITH GAPS OF OPEN
WATER OVER ESPECIALLY WEST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIR IS DRY IN
THE LARGER SCALE. SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V
LOOK...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO THE THIN MOIST LAYER AROUND
H85. BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...BUT EVEN THIS AFFECT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS LARGER SCALE
LOW-LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MOST NOTEABLE WILL BE
THE COLD...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING TO THE UPR TEENS OR
LOWER 20S BY LATE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 DEGREES...EVEN OVER SCNTRL. NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL END UP 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOL TEMPS FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY TEENS EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT
ANY INTERIOR LOCATION ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT CLEARS OUT BRIEFLY AND
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS STILL SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS OVER ITS LAST 5 RUNS BACK TO
00Z ON 12 APRIL. ECMWF RATHER INSISTENT INDICATING WIDESPREAD QPF
WILL BE MORE FROM DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
CWA TO LK SUPERIOR. GFS IDEA IS MORE OR LESS SUPPORTED BY LAST
COUPLE GEM-NH RUNS AND 12Z/12 APRIL RUN OF UKMET. DIVING IN MORE IT
APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS LOOK SIMILAR IN THE
LARGER SCALE /LEAD SHORTWAVE INITIALIZING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE STRONGER/LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA/ THEY DIFFER IN HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. GFS IS SLOWER TO PHASE THUS BRINGS SFC LOW
FARTHER EAST INITIALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PHASES QUICKER AND LIFTS THE
LOW MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EMERGE OUT OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS OF PRIMARY MODELS
INDICATES HIGH CHANCES OVER CWA...BEGINNING VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS ALL CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EASTERN CWA. PTYPE MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS OVER SCNTRL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST CWA PER BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3 G/KG INDICATE
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN
OF ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS/GEM-NH IDEAS. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF HWOMQT NOW THOUGH SINCE AS THIS IS THE FIRST
ECMWF RUN TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES BY FRIDAY AS RECENT RUNS OF GFS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TOWARD 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS UPPER LAKES. ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
ALL WHILE THE GEM-NH SHOWS SOME IDEA THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP...
JUST NOT AS STRONG AS GFS. CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS
INPUT... GIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MANUALLY
TWEAKED THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT ALONE OTHERWISE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED TEMPS INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHETHER
ANY SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY. IF SO...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF NOT...INLAND AREAS AWAY FM
THE LAKES COULD REACH LOWER 50S ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS H85
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH AN UPSLOPE E WIND WITHIN SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS N OF STNRY FNT IN
THE LOWER GREAT LKS...EXPECT VLIFR/BLO LANDING MINS TO PERSIST AT
CMX THRU SUNRISE. CONDITIONS AT SAW AND IWD SHOULD DETERIORATE TO
LIFR/IFR RESPECTIVLEY WITH THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF MORE LLVL MSTR IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING UNDER MID LVL DRYING AND LGT UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT AT SAW/WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE WIND AT IWD. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING ON SUN.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SFC LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE FM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LKS TNGT AND THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF
THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN AREA...SOME SN/IFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO
SAW THIS EVNG. BUT SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS FCST THE HEAVIER PCPN TO
REMAIN TO THE SE...WL FCST JUST MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
RIVER HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS AT RKLM4/FRDM4 AND EVEN AT
MSQM4 OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BROKEN AND RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF. AS OF THIS MORNING...NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM THE ICE
JAMS. SEEMS THAT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK /HIGHS 20S TO
30S WITH LOWS WELL BLO FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/...WE
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE END OF THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH
4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS
THAT WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
956 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ADDED OCCASIONAL FLURRIES LATE THIS MORNING TO SECTIONS OF THE
ARROWHEAD AND GOT RID OF MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG TO THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A SOMEWHAT BUSY SFC PRESS PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
ID ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS SFC LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH
STRETCHING INTO SRN WISC/MICHIGAN. AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER CTRL
CANADA..AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AS ADVERTISED FROM SRN
BDRY NORTH INTO A WEAK SFC WAVE OVER NWRN ONTARIO. A WELL DEFINED
LOW LVL THETAE RIBBON ALONG WITH A DISTINCT WINDSHIFT IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE BDRY AS
SFC PGF IS INCREASING QUICKLY. SPOTTY PRECIP IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
BORDERLAND AT THIS HOUR. IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS A RELATIVE
BENIGN LOW LVL WIND PATTERN... COMBINED WITH VERY LOW COND PRESS
DEFICITS IN THE BDRY LYR... HAS ALLOWED LOCALLY DENSE FOG/AND LITE
PRECIP TO LINGER NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT...MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
TODAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
MID MORNING AS WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC BDRY PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. A DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WINDS AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FAVORED WITHIN A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER. MID LVL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK OVER NRN PLAINS AND THIS MAY ALLOW NRN FRINGE OF
PRECIP FROM PLAINS SYSTEM TO EDGE INTO SERN CWA. MULTI MDL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. MAX TEMPS BLO CLIMO WITH CAA AND ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDY COVER. FCST 925/850 LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY CU MAY BE FAVORED OVER NRN/ERN CWA IN THE AFTN HRS.
TONIGHT...MID LVL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER WRN MN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW OVER SERN CWA
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG ACCUMULATION. SREF
PLUMES AT KPBH SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH MEAN NEAR AN INCH.
TOMORROW...MAIN STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID
LVL TROF OVER THE CWA WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES. MDLS ARE SKIMPY ON PRECIP HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE UPPER FEATURE AND THE TIME OF YEAR WOULD SUSPECT THAT
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE DAY. WELL MIXED BDRY LAYER LOOKS
LIKELY AS FCST MIXING LAYER HEIGHT REACHES 6K TO 7K FT DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN IN MANY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS EVEN LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO A DROP OF ABOUT 4C TO 6C WITHIN
THE FCST 925/85H LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW MID WEEK. MOST OF THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL.
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
EMPHASIS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS QUITE A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN THE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN
A BIG BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO RECEIVE SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LOOK
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT FGEN THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL...AND COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED BANDS OF SNOWFALL.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW QUITE A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
DEVELOPS IT INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
THEM RISING LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND....WITH 1SM TO 3SM IN
FOG IN SPOTS. CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD RISE THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS WELL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE RAP IS SLOWER TO LIFT CEILINGS TO VFR THAN WHAT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL RH SUGGEST. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP.
MOST AREAS SHOULD RISE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 21 31 16 / 0 10 20 10
INL 35 15 27 9 / 10 10 20 10
BRD 39 22 34 16 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 41 23 34 11 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 41 24 32 15 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJT
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
702 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A SOMEWHAT BUSY SFC PRESS PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
ID ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS SFC LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH
STRETCHING INTO SRN WISC/MICHIGAN. AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER CTRL
CANADA..AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AS ADVERTISED FROM SRN
BDRY NORTH INTO A WEAK SFC WAVE OVER NWRN ONTARIO. A WELL DEFINED
LOW LVL THETAE RIBBON ALONG WITH A DISTINCT WINDSHIFT IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE BDRY AS
SFC PGF IS INCREASING QUICKLY. SPOTTY PRECIP IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
BORDERLAND AT THIS HOUR. IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS A RELATIVE
BENIGN LOW LVL WIND PATTERN... COMBINED WITH VERY LOW COND PRESS
DEFICITS IN THE BDRY LYR... HAS ALLOWED LOCALLY DENSE FOG/AND LITE
PRECIP TO LINGER NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT...MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
TODAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
MID MORNING AS WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC BDRY PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. A DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WINDS AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FAVORED WITHIN A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER. MID LVL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK OVER NRN PLAINS AND THIS MAY ALLOW NRN FRINGE OF
PRECIP FROM PLAINS SYSTEM TO EDGE INTO SERN CWA. MULTI MDL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. MAX TEMPS BLO CLIMO WITH CAA AND ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDY COVER. FCST 925/850 LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY CU MAY BE FAVORED OVER NRN/ERN CWA IN THE AFTN HRS.
TONIGHT...MID LVL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER WRN MN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW OVER SERN CWA
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG ACCUMULATION. SREF
PLUMES AT KPBH SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH MEAN NEAR AN INCH.
TOMORROW...MAIN STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID
LVL TROF OVER THE CWA WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES. MDLS ARE SKIMPY ON PRECIP HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE UPPER FEATURE AND THE TIME OF YEAR WOULD SUSPECT THAT
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE DAY. WELL MIXED BDRY LAYER LOOKS
LIKELY AS FCST MIXING LAYER HEIGHT REACHES 6K TO 7K FT DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN IN MANY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS EVEN LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO A DROP OF ABOUT 4C TO 6C WITHIN
THE FCST 925/85H LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW MID WEEK. MOST OF THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL.
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
EMPHASIS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS QUITE A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN THE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN
A BIG BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO RECEIVE SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LOOK
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT FGEN THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL...AND COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED BANDS OF SNOWFALL.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW QUITE A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
DEVELOPS IT INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
THEM RISING LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND....WITH 1SM TO 3SM IN
FOG IN SPOTS. CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD RISE THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS WELL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE RAP IS SLOWER TO LIFT CEILINGS TO VFR THAN WHAT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL RH SUGGEST. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP.
MOST AREAS SHOULD RISE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 21 31 16 / 10 10 20 10
INL 35 15 27 9 / 10 10 20 10
BRD 41 22 34 16 / 10 10 0 10
HYR 43 23 34 11 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 42 24 32 15 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
830 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 830 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Band of snow has effectively left our CWA leaving behind a region
of drizzle in its wake, now primarily confined to parts of
southwest IL. The clearing line has made it almost to
Jacksonville, IL, just passed thru Bowling Green, MO and near
Rolla, MO. At its current rate, the skies are expected to clear
for nearly the entire CWA by 06z, just in time for the start of a
total lunar eclipse. Diurnal cloudiness driving southeast from IA
is expected to further break up and dissipate over the next few
hours.
Temps continue to be on track with current forecast, supporting
continuation of Freeze Warnings with widespread mins in the mid to
upper 20s. Note that our forecast will either set or approach
current record low temps. See CLIMATE section below.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Main concerns deal with the band of snow currently extending from
near Pittsfield to Rolla as well as the going freeze warning. The
band has been reducing visibilities to as low as 1/2 mile with
some reports of accumulation on grassy surfaces. It is being
caused by mid level frontogenesis ahead of the 500mb trough that
will move through the area tonight. The RAP and HRRR does show the
frotogenesis weakening as it moves acrosss the CWA, but do think
that it will likely maintain itself the next few hours before it
weakens by early evening. Have extrapolated the band through CWA
through early evening, with little or no accumulation of snow
expected given the warm low level and surface temperatures.
The precipitation and clouds will clear out quick as subsidence
moves in behind the passage of the upper trough. With cold air
advection and dry dewpoints, expect temperatures to drop quickly to
near MOS temperatures. Going freeze warning looks good and plan no
changes to it.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Have kept Tuesday into Thursday dry as the area will remain cut off
from any notable moisture from the Gulf and the active storm track
stays north of the area. While Tuesday night will not be as cold as
tonight, most areas will still be in the lower to mid 30s for
lows.
(Thursday Night-Next Monday)
The ECMWF and GFS are now similar with the amplitude and timing of
the mid level trough and attendant cold front that will move across
the area on Friday. Will continue with the chance of showers on
Thursday night and Friday before subsidence works in behind the
trough keeping Friday night and Saturday dry. Then confidence
begins to wane late in the weekend as they both develop QPF over the
area. The GFS is placing more emphasis on an northern stream upper
over the Upper Midwest while ECMWF is placing it`s emphasis on a
shortwave coming out of the southwest CONUS. Either way, will
continue the chance of showers we have going Saturday night into
Sunday night. Temperatures during the period look to be near or
slightly below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Back edge of light snow and mvfr cigs making progress to the east
early this evening. Should see skies scatter out by 01z at KCOU
and KUIN, and in the metro area by 02z. Otherwise, gusty northwest
winds to diminish as surface ridge builds in then back to the west
by midday on Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Back edge of light snow and mvfr cigs making progress to the east
early this evening. Should see skies scatter out by 02z in the
metro area. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds to diminish by 06z as
surface ridge builds in then back to the west by 17z Tuesday then
to the south by 01z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.CLIMATE:
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
655 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Band of pcpn of what is mostly snow is actually moving more to the
northeast than east, and as a result, should only very briefly
affect portions of STL Metro East early this evening, and many
areas further E and S not at all, such as Salem and Sparta, IL.
Have this band of pcpn exiting the CWA into central IL around 9pm,
weakening as it does so. Isolated pockets of slush on grassy areas
expected with most locations not getting any accums at all, with
relatively warm surfaces from recent warm days and above freezing
air temps currently.
Still looking good for lunar eclipse viewing later tonight with
clearing already making its way into central MO and this will
sweep eastward across much of the CWA this evening.
Freeze warnings still look on target with widespread mins in the
mid-upper 20s.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Main concerns deal with the band of snow currently extending from
near Pittsfield to Rolla as well as the going freeze warning. The
band has been reducing visibilities to as low as 1/2 mile with
some reports of accumulation on grassy surfaces. It is being
caused by mid level frontogenesis ahead of the 500mb trough that
will move through the area tonight. The RAP and HRRR does show the
frotogenesis weakening as it moves acrosss the CWA, but do think
that it will likely maintain itself the next few hours before it
weakens by early evening. Have extrapolated the band through CWA
through early evening, with little or no accumulation of snow
expected given the warm low level and surface temperatures.
The precipitation and clouds will clear out quick as subsidence
moves in behind the passage of the upper trough. With cold air
advection and dry dewpoints, expect temperatures to drop quickly to
near MOS temperatures. Going freeze warning looks good and plan no
changes to it.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Have kept Tuesday into Thursday dry as the area will remain cut off
from any notable moisture from the Gulf and the active storm track
stays north of the area. While Tuesday night will not be as cold as
tonight, most areas will still be in the lower to mid 30s for
lows.
(Thursday Night-Next Monday)
The ECMWF and GFS are now similar with the amplitude and timing of
the mid level trough and attendant cold front that will move across
the area on Friday. Will continue with the chance of showers on
Thursday night and Friday before subsidence works in behind the
trough keeping Friday night and Saturday dry. Then confidence
begins to wane late in the weekend as they both develop QPF over the
area. The GFS is placing more emphasis on an northern stream upper
over the Upper Midwest while ECMWF is placing it`s emphasis on a
shortwave coming out of the southwest CONUS. Either way, will
continue the chance of showers we have going Saturday night into
Sunday night. Temperatures during the period look to be near or
slightly below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Back edge of light snow and mvfr cigs making progress to the east
early this evening. Should see skies scatter out by 01z at KCOU
and KUIN, and in the metro area by 02z. Otherwise, gusty northwest
winds to diminish as surface ridge builds in then back to the west
by midday on Tuesday.
Specifics for KSTL:
Back edge of light snow and mvfr cigs making progress to the east
early this evening. Should see skies scatter out by 02z in the
metro area. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds to diminish by 06z as
surface ridge builds in then back to the west by 17z Tuesday then
to the south by 01z Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.CLIMATE:
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Band of pcpn of what is mostly snow is actually moving more to the
northeast than east, and as a result, should only very briefly
affect portions of STL Metro East early this evening, and many
areas further E and S not at all, such as Salem and Sparta, IL.
Have this band of pcpn exiting the CWA into central IL around 9pm,
weakening as it does so. Isolated pockets of slush on grassy areas
expected with most locations not getting any accums at all, with
relatively warm surfaces from recent warm days and above freezing
air temps currently.
Still looking good for lunar eclipse viewing later tonight with
clearing already making its way into central MO and this will
sweep eastward across much of the CWA this evening.
Freeze warnings still look on target with widespread mins in the
mid-upper 20s.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Main concerns deal with the band of snow currently extending from
near Pittsfield to Rolla as well as the going freeze warning. The
band has been reducing visibilities to as low as 1/2 mile with
some reports of accumulation on grassy surfaces. It is being
caused by mid level frontogenesis ahead of the 500mb trough that
will move through the area tonight. The RAP and HRRR does show the
frotogenesis weakening as it moves acrosss the CWA, but do think
that it will likely maintain itself the next few hours before it
weakens by early evening. Have extrapolated the band through CWA
through early evening, with little or no accumulation of snow
expected given the warm low level and surface temperatures.
The precipitation and clouds will clear out quick as subsidence
moves in behind the passage of the upper trough. With cold air
advection and dry dewpoints, expect temperatures to drop quickly to
near MOS temperatures. Going freeze warning looks good and plan no
changes to it.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Have kept Tuesday into Thursday dry as the area will remain cut off
from any notable moisture from the Gulf and the active storm track
stays north of the area. While Tuesday night will not be as cold as
tonight, most areas will still be in the lower to mid 30s for
lows.
(Thursday Night-Next Monday)
The ECMWF and GFS are now similar with the amplitude and timing of
the mid level trough and attendant cold front that will move across
the area on Friday. Will continue with the chance of showers on
Thursday night and Friday before subsidence works in behind the
trough keeping Friday night and Saturday dry. Then confidence
begins to wane late in the weekend as they both develop QPF over the
area. The GFS is placing more emphasis on an northern stream upper
over the Upper Midwest while ECMWF is placing it`s emphasis on a
shortwave coming out of the southwest CONUS. Either way, will
continue the chance of showers we have going Saturday night into
Sunday night. Temperatures during the period look to be near or
slightly below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Area of SN continues to move ewd. Have made some slight changes to
the prev TAFs based on latest RADAR trends and mdl guidance.
Confidence is higher that precip will be all SN at COU/UIN early
this afternoon. With ample cloud cover across the region, believe
temps will remain cold enuf for all SN at SUS/CPS late this
afternoon. However, with some uncertainty and since main focus
shud be nw of sites, will leave precip as a RA/SN mix for now.
Beyond precip, cigs shud lift quickly and remain VFR thru the
remainder of the TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL: With clouds expected to remain in place,
precip this afternoon has a better chance of being SN. However,
with placement of precip wrt the terminal, precip may remain as a
very light RA or more likely DZ. Beyond precip this afternoon,
cigs shud lift quickly to VFR and remain VFR thru the remainder of
the TAF period.
Tilly
&&
.CLIMATE:
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tonight-Monday Night)
Main question tonight will be severe weather chances. Large area of
stratiform rain currently over the CWA may suppress these chances as
latest SPC objective MUCAPE analysis is mostly below 500 j/kg except
across northern Missouri and west central Illinois. The latest runs
of the HRRR has been trending toward weaker storms these evening
because weaker instability. However, if the rain can mover out of
the area, there are very steep lapse rates over the Central Plains
that could help quickly destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the line
of the storms currently over eastern Kansas. Deep layer shear
between 00-03Z will be between 35-50kts which will be sufficient for
organized severe storms.
Otherwise, forecast did not require too much changes as I still
expect front to march southeast across the CWA tonight.
Thunderstorm threat will end with the front and change to a plain
cold rain. Have kept likely chances to for rain on Monday as the
ECMWF/GFS/NAM all mid-level frontogenesis moving across the region
during the day. Also added likely chances over the eastern counties
on Monday evening as ascent from the mid level trough will not clear
the CWA until overnight Monday night. Forecast soundings and
critical thicknesses still point to snow mixing with the rain from
northwest to southeast during the day on Monday. Do not have any
accumulating snow at the moment as the low atmosphere will be rather
warm during the day, as will the surface temperatures after this
unseasonably warm weekend.
With the much colder air moving into the area, temperatures will
fall below freezing over the entire CWA on Monday night. Many areas
will see temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tuesday-Sunday)
Upper trough will move east of the area by Tuesday bringing dry
weather for mid week. While Monday night looks like the coldest,
Tuesday night will likely still have temperatures around freezing
before lows become more seasonable later in the week.
While the ECMWF has trended deeper and consequently slower with the
trough that will move through the central CONUS late this week, it
is still not as deep as the GFS or the Canadian GEM. Will stick
with the more consistent ECMWF as the GFS is quicker to move the
front through the area on Thursday night than it was before. Will
keep Thursday dry with the front staying to the northwest most of
the day with a chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the
front moves across the area. By next weekend, winds turn out of the
southwest quickly behind a retreating high allowing gulf moisture to
move north from the Gulf quickly into the area.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Cold front extending from a weak surface low over southeast IA
southwest through northwest MO and southeast KS will move sewd
through UIN and COU this evening, and through the St Louis metro
area just after 06z Monday. Scattered showers will continue ahead
of the front early this evening with a line of thunderstorms
along the cold front moving through the taf sites later this evening.
Relatively strong and gusty sly surface winds will veer around to
a nwly direction after fropa and remain strong and gusty late
tonight and Monday due to a tight surface pressure gradient.
Ceilings will likely fall into the IFR catagory behind this front.
There will be some post frontal light rain on Monday, possibly
mixing with or changing to light snow in UIN and COU as colder air
continues to filter sewd into the area.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and thunderstorms over south central
MO will move northeastward into STL later this evening, while a
line of thunderstorms along the cold front over northwest and west
central MO moves into the STL area by late evening. Strong and
gusty sly winds will veer around to a wly direction late tonight
after fropa and a nwly direction Monday morning. The wind will
remain strong and gusty through Monday, then diminish Monday night
as a surface ridge approaches and the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. The cloud ceiling will lower into the IFR catagory late
tonight after fropa, then rise into the MVFR catagory Monday
afternoon or evening. Periods of light rain can be expected on
Monday, possibly changing to a little light rain/snow mix before
ending Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
404 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tonight-Monday Night)
Main question tonight will be severe weather chances. Large area of
stratiform rain currently over the CWA may suppress these chances as
latest SPC objective MUCAPE analysis is mostly below 500 j/kg except
across northern Missouri and west central Illinois. The latest runs
of the HRRR has been trending toward weaker storms these evening
because weaker instability. However, if the rain can mover out of
the area, there are very steep lapse rates over the Central Plains
that could help quickly destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the line
of the storms currently over eastern Kansas. Deep layer shear
between 00-03Z will be between 35-50kts which will be sufficient for
organized severe storms.
Otherwise, forecast did not require too much changes as I still
expect front to march southeast across the CWA tonight.
Thunderstorm threat will end with the front and change to a plain
cold rain. Have kept likely chances to for rain on Monday as the
ECMWF/GFS/NAM all mid-level frontogenesis moving across the region
during the day. Also added likely chances over the eastern counties
on Monday evening as ascent from the mid level trough will not clear
the CWA until overnight Monday night. Forecast soundings and
critical thicknesses still point to snow mixing with the rain from
northwest to southeast during the day on Monday. Do not have any
accumulating snow at the moment as the low atmosphere will be rather
warm during the day, as will the surface temperatures after this
unseasonably warm weekend.
With the much colder air moving into the area, temperatures will
fall below freezing over the entire CWA on Monday night. Many areas
will see temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tuesday-Sunday)
Upper trough will move east of the area by Tuesday bringing dry
weather for mid week. While Monday night looks like the coldest,
Tuesday night will likely still have temperatures around freezing
before lows become more seasonable later in the week.
While the ECMWF has trended deeper and consequently slower with the
trough that will move through the central CONUS late this week, it
is still not as deep as the GFS or the Canadian GEM. Will stick
with the more consistent ECMWF as the GFS is quicker to move the
front through the area on Thursday night than it was before. Will
keep Thursday dry with the front staying to the northwest most of
the day with a chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the
front moves across the area. By next weekend, winds turn out of the
southwest quickly behind a retreating high allowing gulf moisture to
move north from the Gulf quickly into the area.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Latest weather trends shows band of rainshowers from IRK through
central Missouri and southwest into south central Missouri moving
northeast into eastern sections of the state. Narrow band of
thunderstorms entering west-central Missouri at this time shows
recent signs of slight weakening. More organized storms continue
to develop from TOP to ICT. Eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois will continue to receive light rainshowers this afternoon
ending by 2100 - 2200 UTC. The stronger storms along far western
Missouri shows trend of continued weakening as it hit more stable
air over central Missouri. Will bring in rainshowers over
COU...UIN...and STL terminal from 1800 UTC and ending
precipitation between 2100 to 2200 UTC. The band of storms
entering far western Missouri may reach COU area around 2300 -
0000 UTC if it holds together.
Specifics for KSTL:
Band of rainshowers from north central Missouri through south
central Missouri will enter STL area after 1800 and should
end around 2100 UTC. Expect visibility restrictions of about 5
miles in light rain. The stronger convection over far western
Missouri may not reach STL since this system will be entering in
more stable atmosphere. Stronger storms over east central through
south-central Kansas is associated with the cold front. This band
of storms will be entering the STL area after 0400 UTC. Gusty
winds are likely with these storms. Surface winds will likely be
southwest at 15 kts with gusts to as high as 25 kts.
Przybylinski
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight with
unseasonable cold Mon/Mon night. Guidance is continuing to
indicate light precip ahead of the main long wave trough axis over
the Plains Monday. Progged vertical thermal profiles support some wet
snow at many locations from mid morning into the afternoon,
particularly over western and and northern halves of cwfa.
Blustery, cold, and damp sums it up for the day on Monday.
A widespread frost/hard freeze looks likely Mon night with most
guidance dropping temperatures well down into the 20s. A sfc ridge
axis will be over the region by 12z Tue with light winds aiding in
radiational cooling. Freeze watch is out now for Mon night, and the
warning will follow either later today or tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Cold temperatures and a dry air mass will continue into Tuesday.
The sfc ridge axis will shift east of the area late Tue/Tue night.
While a light south to southeast wind will become established over
the area Tue night, the dry air mass will still likely allow
temperatures to drop quickly in the evening and reach down to near
freezing in many areas. Will look at at the possibility of a frost
advisory as that time period draws closer.
Temperatures will moderate somewhat for Wed-Thu. Another shortwave
and sfc low/trough will pass through the region Thu night/early
Fri. Gulf moisture will be greatly limited/modified ahead of this
system with showers/isolate tstms expected.
Looks like a more amplified upper level pattern may become
established over the CONUS by late in the week with a sharp upper
level ridge axis setting up over the eastern Rockies or Plains by
late in the week. The 00z ECMWF is more progressive with the
ridge (versus the 12z GFS), shifting it east of the area by Sunday and
spitting out some light precip late in the weekend. Will probably
hold off on any significant mention of precip for now with dry low
levels expected to be in place with sfc high pressure just off to
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
We will continue to see scattered showers and storms over the
southwest Missouri airports through the afternoon...however we
expect ceilings to remain VFR ahead of the dry line and cold front
which extended across south central Kansas through central
Oklahoma at 17Z. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the front
should keep winds gusting above 20 mph through the afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the airports roughly
from 23Z to 3Z...as the cold front moves across the area. These storms
could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and hail to 1.75
inches in diameter.
Winds will shift to the west and southwest around midnight with
ceilings expected to drop to IFR through the night and into
tomorrow. We could see the ceilings break before 18Z Monday with
the passage of the 700 mb trough. Expect Springfield and Branson
to remain IFR with periods of light rain through 18Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Record lows for April 15th:
Springfield: 25 deg F...1928
Joplin : 26 deg F...1983
West Plains: 25 deg F...1950
Rolla-Vichy: 27 deg F...1962
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster
CLIMATE...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
149 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Surface analysis at 18z indicated that a sharp and swiftly moving
cold front is currently situated from Lamoni, IA to Manhattan, KS.
Regional mosaic radar confirms this by indicating the fine line
associated with the cold front. By 19z it appears FROPA will occur in
the northern KC Metro, with FROPA for the entire metro area by 20z.
Areas north of the cold front will no longer have any threat for
tornadic activity. Areas along and south of the cold front will
continue to have a threat for strong surface based storms, with a
very low-end tornado threat for the rest of the afternoon. Cloud cover over
the area has generally abated the instability, however visible
imagery indicates plenty of clearing across SE Kansas, resulting in
building instability along the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SB Cape.
Thunderstorm activity is ongoing deep within the warm sector, and
likely will tap into the 2000+ J/kg of surface based instability and
20 to 40 kts of effective shear. It appears that these storms,
numerous in nature, could potentially be tied to a potent shortwave
trough which is currently centered over western Kansas with the
leading edge moving over the warm sector in C/E Kansas. While the
atmosphere certainly contains the ingredients for high-impact severe
weather, it appears that the chances for widespread high-impact
severe weather is minimal at this point, considering how storms
appear to be evolving across C/E Kansas. HRRR trends over the past
few runs confirm the idea that by 20z the storm activity will likely
be widespread in coverage, which would likely hamper the ability for
any single thunderstorm to become organized. Generally expect
widespread strong thunderstorms to skirt through the northern KC
Metro within the next couple of hours, with perhaps another round of
storms moving into the KC Metro area closer to 21z to 23z.
With that said, even with a linear or disorganized complex of
storms, the aforementioned area of high instability will migrate
eastward into the area, and wind profiles will be favorable for
rotating storms, so it will be necessary to keep a close eye on any
strong updraft within the complex for rotation.
Behind the cold front some lingering instability will support post
frontal thunderstorm activity, and with shear increasing behind the
line it will be possible to see some quasi organized activity in the
cold air behind the front, however it would almost surely be elevated
in nature, making the only threat marginal to low-end severe hail.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Today:
---------------------
Scattered, elevated thunderstorms may continue through the next
several hours on the nose of the LLJ, and could continue to produce
isolated severe hail in an environment with around 800-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 30-40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear. A brief lull in thunderstorm
activity is possible around sunrise as ongoing storms push east;
however, additional storm development is expected to begin along the
nearly stationary surface front/inverted trough axis by mid morning
across far NE Kansas and NW Missouri. Storms will gradually spread
along the boundary this morning, then will push southeastward during
the afternoon as the associated surface low kicks eastward into
central MO and drags the front across the forecast area. Additional
storm development is also possible early this afternoon just ahead
of the surface low across east central KS and west central MO, but
will gradually conglomerate with frontal precipitation during the
mid-afternoon.
MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are possible along and ahead of the
boundary this afternoon despite generally weak surface heating, and
will be accompanied by deep-layer shear values of 30-40 kts. Low-
level shear profiles are unidirectional and fairly unimpressive near
the surface, keeping the tornado potential very low. If storms can
become a bit more isolated just ahead of the surface boundary, large
hail will be possible; but with fairly widespread convection and
competing updrafts, shear vectors oriented nearly perpendicular to
the boundary and overall uni-directional shear, briefly damaging
winds and marginally severe (~1") hail seem the most likely
candidate for a severe threat this afternoon-evening.
Tonight and Monday:
---------------------
Behind the surface front, much cooler temperatures will filter into
the region. Profiles will quickly become supportive of a rain/snow
mix or brief periods of all snow late tonight into early Monday
morning, and fairly widespread (light) precipitation looks probable
along the northwest side of the surface low. Accumulating snow will
be very difficult to come by due to low snow rates and and very warm
and wet surfaces, but can`t rule out a brief tenth of an inch or so
on grassy surface across far northwest Missouri. Precipitation
should taper off from northwest to southeast on Monday afternoon,
exiting the region completely by sunset.
Tuesday Morning:
---------------------
A surface ridge will drift eastward across the forecast area late
Monday night into Tuesday morning while chilly northwest flow aloft
continues to usher in unseasonably cold temperatures. A damaging
freeze is likely Tuesday morning for any vegetation that has bloomed
out across the region, and a freeze headline will likely be needed
as Tuesday AM draws closer.
Wednesday - Saturday:
---------------------
Gradually warming temperatures are expected through Thursday, then a
clipper system may shove a cold front through the area again on
Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is the most aggressive in
bringing cold temperatures (and measurable snow) back into the CWA
for Thursday night into Friday morning, but have kept a warmer blend
in the forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Very messy afternoon with scattered convection early this afternoon
from extreme eastern KS across northern and central MO before a line
of strong/isolated severe storms moves from west to east this
afternoon. This line should affect the terminals before 22z with MVFR
cigs. Winds will switch abruptly to the north and remain strong and
gusty with the passage of the front. Post-frontal rain and embedded
thunderstorms will linger for a couple of hours after frontal
passage.
An area of wrap around rain and drizzle likely to move in later this
evening. Temperatures should be cold enough for a rain/snow mix after
midnight over far northwest MO. Another system moves in from the west
on Monday with the entire column cooling well below zero such that
snow is expected over east central KS/west central MO. Could see
minor accumulations on grassy surfaces.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Leighton
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight with
unseasonable cold Mon/Mon night. Guidance is continuing to
indicate light precip ahead of the main long wave trough axis over
the Plains Monday. Progged vertical thermal profiles support some wet
snow at many locations from mid morning into the afternoon,
particularly over western and and northern halves of cwfa.
Blustery, cold, and damp sums it up for the day on Monday.
A widespread frost/hard freeze looks likely Mon night with most
guidance dropping temperatures well down into the 20s. A sfc ridge
axis will be over the region by 12z Tue with light winds aiding in
radiational cooling. Freeze watch is out now for Mon night, and the
warning will follow either later today or tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Cold temperatures and a dry air mass will continue into Tuesday.
The sfc ridge axis will shift east of the area late Tue/Tue night.
While a light south to southeast wind will become established over
the area Tue night, the dry air mass will still likely allow
temperatures to drop quickly in the evening and reach down to near
freezing in many areas. Will look at at the possibility of a frost
advisory as that time period draws closer.
Temperatures will moderate somewhat for Wed-Thu. Another shortwave
and sfc low/trough will pass through the region Thu night/early
Fri. Gulf moisture will be greatly limited/modified ahead of this
system with showers/isolate tstms expected.
Looks like a more amplified upper level pattern may become
established over the CONUS by late in the week with a sharp upper
level ridge axis setting up over the eastern Rockies or Plains by
late in the week. The 00z ECMWF is more progressive with the
ridge (versus the 12z GFS), shifting it east of the area by Sunday and
spitting out some light precip late in the weekend. Will probably
hold off on any significant mention of precip for now with dry low
levels expected to be in place with sfc high pressure just off to
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
We will continue to see scattered showers and storms over the
southwest Missouri airports through the afternoon...however we
expect ceilings to remain VFR ahead of the dry line and cold front
which extended across south central Kansas through central
Oklahoma at 17Z. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the front
should keep winds gusting above 20 mph through the afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the airports roughly
from 23Z to 3Z...as the cold front moves across the area. These storms
could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and hail to 1.75
inches in diameter.
Winds will shift to the west and southwest around midnight with
ceilings expected to drop to IFR through the night and into
tomorrow. We could see the ceilings break before 18Z Monday with
the passage of the 700 mb trough. Expect Springfield and Branson
to remain IFR with periods of light rain through 18Z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
It is a very mild and breezy morning across southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures this morning are where our
normal highs would be for this time of year. Some convection is
already developing across portions of southeast Kansas this
morning. This will continue to further develop and move northward.
The 00z 4KM WFR model shows this development well and think that
the model has a good handle of the evolution of storms today and
this evening for the area.
All the 00z suite of models show convection developing by 18z
across southwestern Missouri into central Missouri in the warm
sector. Bulk shear will be up to 50 knots. Instability will
between 1000-1200 J/KG. 0-3KM Storm Relative Helicities will be
up to 500 M2/S2. This convection may be strong to severe with the
primary threats large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be
a low potential for an isolated tornado or two mainly late this
afternoon into the early evening hours with the better potential
over southeast Kansas into extreme southwestern Missouri.
A strong to severe line of storms will be developing along the
advancing cold front by 00z across southeast Kansas into western
Missouri. The main threat again will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The front will slowly undercut the line of storms
through the evening hours as it advances southeastward. The front
will be through Springfield before Midnight and through the
eastern Ozarks before 6 am. Storm total rainfall will be around 1
inch with isolated amounts up to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Much colder air will be moving in on gusty northerly winds by
Monday morning. The main trough will be moving through the area by
the midday and early afternoon hours. Monday will be a shock
compared to the nice warm weather this weekend. Cloudy and dreary
conditions with north winds gusting up to 35 mph...off and on rain
showers with temperatures falling most of the day into the middle
and upper 30s...Wind chills will be in the 20s.
There is still indications from the models and forecast soundings
that enough cold air aloft will be available for either some wet
snow mixing in or changing over by late morning to midday on
Monday. The better potential for seeing wet snow falling will be
along and north of the I-44 corridor and the higher elevations of
the Ozark Plateau. No accumulations are expected with the warm
ground temperatures and the air temperatures will be in the middle
to upper 30s.
Skies will clear from west to east Monday evening and temperatures
will continue to drop as the Canadian high pressure moves in.
There is high confidence that most of the area will see
temperatures in the middle to upper 20s Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Some patchy to areas of frost may occur if the wind relax
enough and in sheltered areas. Will go ahead and issue a Freeze
Watch area wide for Monday night.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the middle of the week.
May see another round of frost and near freezing temperatures
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near
seasonable averages by Thursday before another trough and cold
front moves through and briefly cools temperatures back down for
the end of the week. A good chance of showers will accompanying
the cold front late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
We will continue to see scattered showers and storms over the
southwest Missouri airports through the afternoon...however we
expect ceilings to remain VFR ahead of the dry line and cold front
which extended across south central Kansas through central
Oklahoma at 17Z. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the front
should keep winds gusting above 20 mph through the afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the airports roughly
from 23Z to 3Z...as the cold front moves across the area. These storms
could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and hail to 1.75
inches in diameter.
Winds will shift to the west and southwest around midnight with
ceilings expected to drop to IFR through the night and into
tomorrow. We could see the ceilings break before 18Z Monday with
the passage of the 700 mb trough. Expect Springfield and Branson
to remain IFR with periods of light rain through 18Z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
It is a very mild and breezy morning across southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures this morning are where our
normal highs would be for this time of year. Some convection is
already developing across portions of southeast Kansas this
morning. This will continue to further develop and move northward.
The 00z 4KM WFR model shows this development well and think that
the model has a good handle of the evolution of storms today and
this evening for the area.
All the 00z suite of models show convection developing by 18z
across southwestern Missouri into central Missouri in the warm
sector. Bulk shear will be up to 50 knots. Instability will
between 1000-1200 J/KG. 0-3KM Storm Relative Helicities will be
up to 500 M2/S2. This convection may be strong to severe with the
primary threats large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be
a low potential for an isolated tornado or two mainly late this
afternoon into the early evening hours with the better potential
over southeast Kansas into extreme southwestern Missouri.
A strong to severe line of storms will be developing along the
advancing cold front by 00z across southeast Kansas into western
Missouri. The main threat again will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The front will slowly undercut the line of storms
through the evening hours as it advances southeastward. The front
will be through Springfield before Midnight and through the
eastern Ozarks before 6 am. Storm total rainfall will be around 1
inch with isolated amounts up to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Much colder air will be moving in on gusty northerly winds by
Monday morning. The main trough will be moving through the area by
the midday and early afternoon hours. Monday will be a shock
compared to the nice warm weather this weekend. Cloudy and dreary
conditions with north winds gusting up to 35 mph...off and on rain
showers with temperatures falling most of the day into the middle
and upper 30s...Wind chills will be in the 20s.
There is still indications from the models and forecast soundings
that enough cold air aloft will be available for either some wet
snow mixing in or changing over by late morning to midday on
Monday. The better potential for seeing wet snow falling will be
along and north of the I-44 corridor and the higher elevations of
the Ozark Plateau. No accumulations are expected with the warm
ground temperatures and the air temperatures will be in the middle
to upper 30s.
Skies will clear from west to east Monday evening and temperatures
will continue to drop as the Canadian high pressure moves in.
There is high confidence that most of the area will see
temperatures in the middle to upper 20s Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Some patchy to areas of frost may occur if the wind relax
enough and in sheltered areas. Will go ahead and issue a Freeze
Watch area wide for Monday night.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the middle of the week.
May see another round of frost and near freezing temperatures
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near
seasonable averages by Thursday before another trough and cold
front moves through and briefly cools temperatures back down for
the end of the week. A good chance of showers will accompanying
the cold front late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions today into
tonight.
VFR ceilings and scattered showers will prevail through midday
with some areas of MVFR ceilings. Gusty southerly winds will
continue through the day with frequent gusts over 25 kts. Low
level wind shear will persist early this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase from the west late this
afternoon into the this evening ahead of advancing cold front.
Some of the storms along the front could be strong to possibly
severe.
MVFR to IFR conditions along with a wind shift to the northwest
will follow the frontal passage this evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Cooling of the boundary layer is causing storms to transition to an
elevated nature which is making the effects of the dry warm layer year
800 hPa even more pronounced. This resulted in a quick dissipation of
any storms near or south of I-70 where the capping inversion is
strongest and these areas are likely to remain dry overnight. Further
north, intensifying LLJ is aiding the progression of strong storms
between STJ and MCI where there remains MUCAPE of over 1000 J/kg.
However this elevated instability is progged to weaken to the east of
I-35 so the threat for strong storms will diminish as storms push
into this less unstable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tonight:
Frontal boundaries will likely be the focus for most of the
convection tonight. A warm front extends from a weak low near OMA
through northern IL. A diffuse area of low pressure over southwest
KS is connected to the OMA low by a very weak cold front.
Strong and gusty southerly winds have pulled up the season`s first
large swath of gulf moisture into KS/MO as noted by 60ish dewpoints
while southwesterly h8 winds spread an elevated mixed layer across
KS and MO resulting in a moderately strong cap.The end result is the
warmest temperatures of the year with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg but
marginal 0-6km shear around 35 kts. Evening convective activity will
likely be closely tied to the IA warm front. Best severe threat will
reside over IA with isolated severe storms possible over northwest
MO mainly this evening. Large hail would be the most likely severe
threat. A h7 shortwave is progged to lift northeast through northern
KS/NE and activate this warm front. Last 4-5 runs of the HRRR has
consistently shown scattered convection popping up along this
boundary around 22z. The convection further south which the HRRR and
RAP develop over east central KS is a bit suspicious as it forms
within the well capped environment with no boundary nearby. Wouldn`t
be surprised if it actually form further west along the dryline over
central KS where some cu has recently formed. Prefer to limit the
evening convection to northwest and north central MO. Also have low
confidence in the NAM and GFS propagating an MCS southward into east
central KS and west central MO by 06Z. Overall, will concentrate
highest PoPs across northern MO and lower them south of the MO River.
Sunday-Sunday night:
A broad upper trough over the desert southwest is expected to lift
northeast on Sunday and enhance the downstream lift via
increasing/expanding upper level diffluence. This in turn will lead
to widespread convection with heavy rains likely. Scattered
convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and this plus
extensive low level cloud cover will make it difficult to realize the
moderate instability the soundings show. Should some breaks occur of
any meaningful length of time then we could tap into this instability
and give a boost to our severe threat. For now strong storms are
possible south of the MO River on Sunday with a minimal severe
threat. The main weather threat will be from heavy rains due to very
efficient deep, tropical-like convection, which could train during
the afternoon and early evening.
The true cold front currently lies form eastern ND through west
central SD which will reinforce the frontal boundary on Sunday. A
second and much deeper northern upper trough will push this front
southeast with strong cold air advection rushing in Sunday night.
Inspection of Bufr soundings suggest the rain could mix with snow
over parts of northwest MO late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night:
A very raw and blustery day with temperatures 20 degrees below
average. While the NAM had previously been discounted as being too
cold and generating several inches of snow the latest GFS and ECMWF
have been trending colder and also generating at least a rain/snow
mix. Started trending colder yesterday and continue doing so today.
Areas of light rain mixed with snow seems plausible if not likely
Monday morning. Will hold off on mentioning any snow amounts for now.
Very cold temperatures will settle in overnight Monday as skies
clear out. Will see sub-freezing temperatures everywhere with many
locations experiencing several hours of temperatures below 28F at
which water freezes inside most plants. Will be issuing headlines
eventually for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tuesday-Saturday
After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will steadily
rebound Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs primarily in the 50s and
60s respectively. Model solutions vary greatly with regards to
timing, amplification/strength, and placement of the next upper
trough to affect the area Thursday or Friday. This provides
relatively high uncertainty to the expected weather during this
period, and likewise the degree of cooler weather to follow upon the
frontal passage. As for temperatures during the period, readings
should remain slightly below climatological normals for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Storms should remain north and east of the KC and STJ areas for the
remainder of the night. Earlier storms left winds variable but they
should return from the SSE over the next several hours. MVFR ceilings
developing over TX should rapidly expand northward early Sunday
morning and could make it as far north as northern MO by sunrise.
Widespread thunderstorms are likely beginning early Sunday afternoon
as a cold front moves in. Some of these may be strong. Front will
push through the area toward 00Z with some gusty winds and showers
lingering through the evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Cooling of the boundary layer is causing storms to transition to an
elevated nature which is making the effects of the dry warm layer year
800 hPa even more pronounced. This resulted in a quick dissipation of
any storms near or south of I-70 where the capping inversion is
strongest and these areas are likely to remain dry overnight. Further
north, intensifying LLJ is aiding the progression of strong storms
between STJ and MCI where there remains MUCAPE of over 1000 J/kg.
However this elevated instability is progged to weaken to the east of
I-35 so the threat for strong storms will diminish as storms push
into this less unstable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tonight:
Frontal boundaries will likely be the focus for most of the
convection tonight. A warm front extends from a weak low near OMA
through northern IL. A diffuse area of low pressure over southwest
KS is connected to the OMA low by a very weak cold front.
Strong and gusty southerly winds have pulled up the season`s first
large swath of gulf moisture into KS/MO as noted by 60ish dewpoints
while southwesterly h8 winds spread an elevated mixed layer across
KS and MO resulting in a moderately strong cap.The end result is the
warmest temperatures of the year with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg but
marginal 0-6km shear around 35 kts. Evening convective activity will
likely be closely tied to the IA warm front. Best severe threat will
reside over IA with isolated severe storms possible over northwest
MO mainly this evening. Large hail would be the most likely severe
threat. A h7 shortwave is progged to lift northeast through northern
KS/NE and activate this warm front. Last 4-5 runs of the HRRR has
consistently shown scattered convection popping up along this
boundary around 22z. The convection further south which the HRRR and
RAP develop over east central KS is a bit suspicious as it forms
within the well capped environment with no boundary nearby. Wouldn`t
be surprised if it actually form further west along the dryline over
central KS where some cu has recently formed. Prefer to limit the
evening convection to northwest and north central MO. Also have low
confidence in the NAM and GFS propagating an MCS southward into east
central KS and west central MO by 06Z. Overall, will concentrate
highest PoPs across northern MO and lower them south of the MO River.
Sunday-Sunday night:
A broad upper trough over the desert southwest is expected to lift
northeast on Sunday and enhance the downstream lift via
increasing/expanding upper level diffluence. This in turn will lead
to widespread convection with heavy rains likely. Scattered
convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and this plus
extensive low level cloud cover will make it difficult to realize the
moderate instability the soundings show. Should some breaks occur of
any meaningful length of time then we could tap into this instability
and give a boost to our severe threat. For now strong storms are
possible south of the MO River on Sunday with a minimal severe
threat. The main weather threat will be from heavy rains due to very
efficient deep, tropical-like convection, which could train during
the afternoon and early evening.
The true cold front currently lies form eastern ND through west
central SD which will reinforce the frontal boundary on Sunday. A
second and much deeper northern upper trough will push this front
southeast with strong cold air advection rushing in Sunday night.
Inspection of Bufr soundings suggest the rain could mix with snow
over parts of northwest MO late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night:
A very raw and blustery day with temperatures 20 degrees below
average. While the NAM had previously been discounted as being too
cold and generating several inches of snow the latest GFS and ECMWF
have been trending colder and also generating at least a rain/snow
mix. Started trending colder yesterday and continue doing so today.
Areas of light rain mixed with snow seems plausible if not likely
Monday morning. Will hold off on mentioning any snow amounts for now.
Very cold temperatures will settle in overnight Monday as skies
clear out. Will see sub-freezing temperatures everywhere with many
locations experiencing several hours of temperatures below 28F at
which water freezes inside most plants. Will be issuing headlines
eventually for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tuesday-Saturday
After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will steadily
rebound Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs primarily in the 50s and
60s respectively. Model solutions vary greatly with regards to
timing, amplification/strength, and placement of the next upper
trough to affect the area Thursday or Friday. This provides
relatively high uncertainty to the expected weather during this
period, and likewise the degree of cooler weather to follow upon the
frontal passage. As for temperatures during the period, readings
should remain slightly below climatological normals for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Line of convection developing across cntrl KS will remain north and
west of KC for much of the night. There is a chance that additional
storms could develop closer to MCI around 09Z...but better chances
appear to be just to the north near STJ so thunder was kept out of
the KC terminals for now. Will keep a close eye in case thunder needs
to be added later on.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms likely on Sunday with a cold front
moving into the region. Trends have slowed down the timing of this
front and attendant thunderstorms to the early afternoon hours for
the KC area.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AND ITS VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS SLOW ADVANCE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z
WITH SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEST OF A COLUMBUS
TO SIOUX CITY LINE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST
MAIN ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BAND WILL GENERALLY SETUP IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH ON THE SOUTH AND YANKTON TO NELIGH
ON THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA. SNOW THEN SPREADS EAST
AND ENDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. EXPECT SNOW TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY
EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE 00Z
TIME FRAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTED SNOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WILL ALSO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTEND THROUGH 03Z.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING
TO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COOL AND WET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. DAY TO DAY
WARMING FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER SERN NEBR AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED SE OF
KLNK/KOMA BY 2 OR 3 PM CDT. OTHERWISE STRONG NNE SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. COLDER AIR
SPREADING SE INTO ERN NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY TURN RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NERN NEBR...INCLUDING KOFK...WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
DUE TO ONGOING INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE
COULD ALSO BE SLEET MIXED IN WITH SOME OF THE PRECIP THROUGH MID
AFTN AS WELL. COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT KOMA AND KLNK THIS EVENING...IF NOT A PERIOD OF JUST
SNOW...BEFORE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE 2 SITES LATE THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. IN GENERAL IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
PRECIP BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ015>018-030>034-042>045.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
123 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR SHERIDAN AND
WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES AS ONLY LIGHT SNOW REMAINS IN THOSE AREAS.
REPORTS FROM THAT AREA INDICATE AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN
AND WINDS ARE CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW. THIS SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY BAND OF SNOW HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO THEDFORD. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS HAD LATCHED ON
TO THAT AND THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR THE SNOW TO CONTINUE
SINKING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS CONDITIONS ARE CONFIRMED TO HAVE IMPROVED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO COOL HOURLY TEMPERATURES A BIT QUICKER
THAN WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AS WELL AS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SNOW AND RAIN IS ONGOING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FREEZING LINE WAS ROUGHLY FROM KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW...HOWEVER LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR ALOFT HAS COOLED
SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE SNOW FALLING ALTHOUGH WHERE IT
IS WARMER IT MAY MELT ON CONTACT. THIS IS ALSO BEING CONFIRMED BY
DUAL-POL RADAR AS THERE IS A CC DISCONTINUITY FROM AROUND KIML TO
KLBF TO KONL...SO EITHER A MIX OR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WFO GID FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND NOW ARE DEVELOPING WEST THROUGH THE WFO GLD
FCST AREA...AIMED AT SWRN NEB. SO THIS UPDATE IS FOR THE ISOLATED
STORMS. NOTE THE RAP MAINTAINS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WELL EAST
OF THIS AREA OF DEVELOPMENT SO THIS IS AN UNEXPECTED BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING
BEFORE OUR SECOND HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR KLBF THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING THE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO ONCE
THE SNOW ENDS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...KEEPING
VISIBILITIES AT MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 00Z...BOTH KVTN AND KLBF
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR BETTER...WITH VFR BY 03Z. WINDS WILL
ALSO STAY STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINSISH
THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT NO FURTHER GUSTS BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED MONDAY MORNING LOOK FOR GUSTS TO 20KTS AGAIN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NEZ004-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
929 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO COOL HOURLY TEMPERATURES A BIT QUICKER
THAN WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AS WELL AS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SNOW AND RAIN IS ONGOING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FREEZING LINE WAS ROUGHLY FROM KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW...HOWEVER LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR ALOFT HAS COOLED
SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE SNOW FALLING ALTHOUGH WHERE IT
IS WARMER IT MAY MELT ON CONTACT. THIS IS ALSO BEING CONFIRMED BY
DUAL-POL RADAR AS THERE IS A CC DISCONTINUITY FROM AROUND KIML TO
KLBF TO KONL...SO EITHER A MIX OR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WFO GID FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND NOW ARE DEVELOPING WEST THROUGH THE WFO GLD
FCST AREA...AIMED AT SWRN NEB. SO THIS UPDATE IS FOR THE ISOLATED
STORMS. NOTE THE RAP MAINTAINS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WELL EAST
OF THIS AREA OF DEVELOPMENT SO THIS IS AN UNEXPECTED BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING
BEFORE OUR SECOND HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NEZ004-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
727 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WFO GID FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND NOW ARE DEVELOPING WEST THROUGH THE WFO GLD
FCST AREA...AIMED AT SWRN NEB. SO THIS UPDATE IS FOR THE ISOLATED
STORMS. NOTE THE RAP MAINTAINS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WELL EAST
OF THIS AREA OF DEVELOPMENT SO THIS IS AN UNEXPECTED BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING
BEFORE OUR SECOND HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
717 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SUNDAY. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AFTER 13Z AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 1SM WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL BY
LATE MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. FLT CONDS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY BY 00Z MONDAY WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 03Z MONDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 11Z SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 8000 TO 12000 FT AGL AFTER
22Z SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
423 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SUNDAY. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AFTER 13Z AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 1SM WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL BY
LATE MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. FLT CONDS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY BY 00Z MONDAY WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 03Z MONDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 11Z SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 8000 TO 12000 FT AGL AFTER
22Z SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SUNDAY. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AFTER 13Z AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 1SM WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL BY
LATE MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. FLT CONDS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY BY 00Z MONDAY WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 03Z MONDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 11Z SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 8000 TO 12000 FT AGL AFTER
22Z SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ022>028-035>038-056>059-
069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
HAVE CANCELED SEVERE WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT HAVE KEPT THREE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN WATCH 71 AS A PESKY STORM
MIGRATES ACROSS THE BORDER. THIS ONE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY JUST BELOW SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT COULD PULSE UP AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. LATEST RUNS OF RAP
AND HRRR STILL SUGGEST A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIGHTS UP IN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM IN A LINE
FROM RED OAK TO LINCOLN. SEVERE PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH THIS
LINE...BUT HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE. EXPANSION TO THE NORTH THEN
ENSUES THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE 10 PM. SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE HELPED TO INTENSIFY
STORMS THERE EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH SOME REPORTS OF GOLF BALL
HAIL. SEVERE WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL IOWA WAS CANCELLED JUST BEFORE
10 PM EXPIRATION WITH A NEW WATCH ISSUED EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL
HAVE FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES IN A
WATCH THROUGH 2 AM. RADAR TRENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS CONVECTION
SUGGEST STORMS THERE WILL STAY SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE ONLY A COUNTY AWAY AND EARLIER CONVECTION
PRODUCED FAST-MOVING LEFT MOVER THAT DROPPED LARGE HAIL IN FALLS
CITY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN WATCH AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES MAY BE A DIFFERENT
STORY AS STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND LIKELIHOOD OF REDEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS WANING. WILL RE-EVALUATE
THIS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND OVERRIDES SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WOULD
EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO START LIGHTING UP NEAR OR AFTER 4 AM ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TYPE SUNDAY
PRIMARY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.
WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONT CONTINUED TO PRESS SEWD INTO THE AFTN
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARLAN IA TO A LITTLE SE OF OLU AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH BETTER SFC COOLING LAGGED WELL TO THE NORTH. MOST
OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WIND SHIFT HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A SW
COMPONENT TO WIND THAT IT HAD COMBINED WITH MIXING TO LOWER MANY
SFC DWPTS INTO MID 50S OR LOWER...MAIN EXCEPTION THROUGH 20Z FROM
SE CORNER OF NEBR INTO SW IA. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP MIXED LAYER CIN
VALUES STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH IT WEAKENING IN CNTRL IA TOWARD NEBR
CITY PER SPC MESO PAGE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT FIRST OR AT LEAST
HIGHEST CONVECTION CHANCES WOULD BE IN IA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER THAN 18Z RAP AND ALSO 12Z 4KM WRF.
WITH DECENT...ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...DEEP SHEAR AND ML
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2K J/KG....CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND RISK EARLY PROBABLY SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SW THIS EVENING OR NORTH OF BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT LESS
CERTAIN WITH SOME HINTS BY TWO ABOVE SHORTER TERM MODELS
INDICATING A LULL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR NORTH OF OMAHA/LINCOLN BY 12Z. NE NEBR
COULD REMAIN DRY ALL NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO MID/LATE SUN MORNING
PER NAM...BUT INTRODUCED MODEST POPS TOWARD 12Z INCREASING INTO
CATEGORICAL MOST/ALL AREAS THEN TOWARD MIDDAY.
NAM HAD BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON COOLING AIRMASS AS PRECIP FELL NRN
ZONES...EXCEPT FAR NW...AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP COULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...KEPT
A R/S MIX IN ACROSS NERN NEBR. SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE SERN ZONES INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY AS H85 BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR SERN NEBR AND WOULD SUSPECT BEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD FOCUS TOWARD THAT AREA DUE TO LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. HOWEVER...SOME HINT AT A MID LVL FRONTO BAND OF PRECIP
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH THUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED/INCLUDED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE
DAY. MOST TEMPS STEADY/FALLING BUT IF PRECIP WOULD STAY OUT OF
SERN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY COULD SEE A FUTURE NEED FOR A
SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP THERE. WINDS OVER N AND W WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL CONVECTIVE THREAT/PRECIP TRENDS BEFORE THAT PASS
FIRST.
KEPT RAIN/SNOW MIX W/SNOW ON NW FRINGE MENTION IN FORECAST SUN
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTY AS GFS
ENDS BULK OF PRECIP MOST AREAS AS SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SOME WIND/CLOUDS PERSISTING...KEPT LOWS ON OR
ABOVE WARMER GUID VALUES SUN NIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDING
BACK INTO MONDAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE SERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST LOOKS DRY THEN INTO TUE AND WITH INCREASED MIXING ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
KEPT SLGT CHANCE POPS IN WED AFTN FAR NRN ZONES AS 12Z GFS/ECM
BROUGHT NEXT FRONT/TROUGH INTO THAT REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
READINGS SHOULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND IF TRENDS
PERSIST...COULD SEE A NEED FOR FURTHER RAISING IN LATER FORECASTS.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE IN THU/FRI PERIOD AS GFS CLOSES OF A COLD
UPPER TROUGH LOOKING DOWNRIGHT NASTY THU NIGHT NERN NEBR. WHILE
ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...IT TOO TRENDED COLDER. THUS WOULD
THINK SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION WAS STILL WARRANTED WED NGT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT NWRN ZONES AND EVEN EXTENDED MENTION INTO THU
MORNING. COULD FORESEE THIS THREAT BEING SHIFTED SE IF COLD
TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE.
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS WERE MENTIONED PER MODEL BLEND.
HOWEVER...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS LEAD
TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z
TIME FRAME NEAR KLNK AND KOMA...WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTH TO KOFK
BY 15Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
RAIN/THUNDER INITIALLY...THEN MVFR CIGS WILL ENVELOP ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CIGS NEAR FL015 AND VSBYS 3-5SM WITH OCCASIONAL LOWERING OF BOTH
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE BY 15Z AT ALL TAF SITES
AND COULD GUST OVER 40KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT KLNK. AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD... THE MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE PLAIN WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
GET A LINE OF SHOWERS GOING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE PICKED UP BUT
SOME IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED NORTH OF PENN YAN. TEMPS
DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH BUT THEN THIS
SHOULD LEVEL OUT. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS
LINE TO THE WEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS
THE SUNSETS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PAST MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET. DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
IS STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BACK TO THE WEST
AROUND DTW. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS HARDLY INDICATING ANY CAPE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM... BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 55 TO 60... MORE
SEASONABLE FOR JUNE THAN MID-APRIL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RIGHT-REAR QUAD
UPPER DYNAMICS AND A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER RIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
MIDDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY... THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FINGER LAKES... AROUND NOON ALONG THE
I-81 CORRIDOR... AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ANY BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS DURING A SHORT PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT... BUT A WATCH MAY NEED CONSIDERATION
ONCE TIMING AN LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAIN BANDS BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER
THE FINGER LAKES BY LATE MORNING... AND ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STEADIER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -15 DEGREES C. DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR EXPECT THAT THIS SCEANRIO WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER CENTRAL NY TUESDAY EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WX IN THE MED RNG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN ON
WED. AFTER SOME MRNG LAKE CLDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE CST. WE COULD SEE CLDS RETURN IN THE SELY FLOW LATER FRI
NGT INTO SAT. THIS WEEKEND`S FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HINGING ON
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM S/WV`S. JUST WENT WITH
SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL ON WED...A MODERATING TREND
AFTERWARDS AND WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE VFR CIGS AND IFR
VISBYS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LOW END MVFR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
THE FORECAST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MESSY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS IN
VISBYS AD CIGS TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY
STRONG AND PRODUCE LLWS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. RAPID COOLING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FROPA RESULTING IN A
CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX THEN TO SNOW. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
FROM 12Z TO 00Z TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW ON HOW LONG
THE LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...SCT MVFR IN -SHSN CNTRL NY.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ009-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
639 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING
SHOWERS TO AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER FROM ONEIDA COUNTY THIS EVENING
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BEING TOO DRY TO REALIZE THE SPOTTY QPF OF
EARLIER MODELS.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SINCE THE HIGH THIN CLOUDS
ERADICATED MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE LOW 20S CELSIUS TEMPERATURES
AT 925MB /AS HAD BEEN SUGGESTED BY RUC MODEL/ WERE ABLE TO FULLY
REALIZE THEIR MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES OF LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...THE WARMEST READINGS IN 6 MONTHS. BINGHAMTON AIRPORT
DAILY RECORD HIGH IS 80 DEGREES SET IN 1977...AND IT TURNED OUT
JUST 1 DEGREE SHORT OF IT TODAY. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA ALSO JUST A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF DAILY RECORDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY MILD TEMPS TDA WITH WARM SWLY FLOW. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED -SHRA
ACRS NRN ONEIDA LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG OTRW A DRY FCST. VERY MILD
MINS TNGT.
NXT SYSTEM APRCHS TMRW. A FEW MDLS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ALONG A
PRE-FNTL TROF OVER CNTRL NY ARND MID DAY. IN ANY EVENT...INCRSNG
CHCS FOR SHRA TMRW AFTN WITH MAXES GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. TEMPS MAY FALL DURING THE AFTN WRN ZONES AS CLDS AND SCT
-SHRA MOVE IN. GUSTY SSW WINDS CONTINUE ON MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE/ANAFRONT
MOVS THRU ON TUE WITH WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NE ALONG IT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT ON TUE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FCST
W/RESPECT TO CHGOVER AND +RA POTNL IN THE EAST. IN GNRL 12Z RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE IS BASICALLY THRU THE CWA
BY 00Z WED...AND NAM/GFS SFC INDICATE RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LVLS WITH THE
FNT ON TUE.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
STORM...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER TIMING. WE COULD
SEE PL IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAY IT AS RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. GIVEN A COUPLE OF VERY WARM DAYS THINK ICE POTNL
FROM NAM PROFILES IS OVERDONE. WE DID LIKE THE WWD SNOW ACCUMS
WITH POTNL FOR GNRLY 2-4 INCHES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG ACRS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL NY.
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUE NGT...WITH LAKE
CLDS LIKELY SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WED MRNG IN NWLY FLOW. MUCH
COOLER WITH MAXES ONLY U30S TO L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
635 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
CONDITIONS APPROACHED CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON /SUNDAY/ BUT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK OFF THIS EVENING ALONG WITH GRADUALLY
RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. FAIRLY WARM WITH STOUT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN MONDAY...BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES MONDAY...VERSUS WHAT WE JUST HAD THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL BE A GOOD 15 TO 25 PERCENT HIGHER. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A SOLID
WETTING RAIN TUESDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. EVEN SOME
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
NY/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1237 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE. LGT RAIN SHWRS
EARLY ON IN THE VICINITY OF SYR AND RME WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NY. AS THE HEATING CYCLE
BEGINS...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS LIKELY UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY UPPER CI EXPECTED AFTER 04Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURS...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1021 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT BELOW NORMAL PERIOD SETTING UP EARLY ON AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER THE MIDDLE 40S
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE
NEXT WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VLY WITH THIS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WELL WEST OF OUR FCST AREA. THAT
SAID...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WOUND-UP CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AS ONE
CAN IMAGINE THE FORMER OFFERS A WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE LATTER.
BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES AND DISTANCE OUT INTO THE FCST
PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE. LGT RAIN SHWRS
EARLY ON IN THE VICINITY OF SYR AND RME WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NY. AS THE HEATING CYCLE
BEGINS...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS LIKELY UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY UPPER CI EXPECTED AFTER 04Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURS...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
825 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT BELOW NORMAL PERIOD SETTING UP EARLY ON AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER THE MIDDLE 40S
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE
NEXT WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VLY WITH THIS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WELL WEST OF OUR FCST AREA. THAT
SAID...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WOUND-UP CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AS ONE
CAN IMAGINE THE FORMER OFFERS A WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE LATTER.
BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES AND DISTANCE OUT INTO THE FCST
PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE. LGT RAIN SHWRS
EARLY ON IN THE VICINITY OF SYR AND RME WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NY. AS THE HEATING CYCLE
BEGINS...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS LIKELY UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY UPPER CI EXPECTED AFTER 04Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURS...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1027 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...
WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.
GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.
FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE FAIRLY SOON AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
WITHIN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN ANY SHOWER.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE (GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE). REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR TO
LIFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP
TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS WHEN CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING (MAYBE JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST)...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY...LIKELY
25-30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
835 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AN INCH...AND
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C AND MLCAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED J/KG...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF IS HANDLING THE LOCATION...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY
OF THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL...AND THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY THE RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AS
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH...AND THE NAM IN PARTICULAR FORECASTS 850MB LIFT TO
DECREASE...BUT 850MB WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ADD TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...AND 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL TO
AROUND 40KT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE. ALREADY...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE COVERAGE OF
NUMEROUS OR GREATER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...THEN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND 850MB WINDS AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM
MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25KT AT KGSO AND EVEN THE
GFS FORECASTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO JUST BELOW 20KT LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW DECENT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT WOULD SEEM...AS ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AROUND AND JUST AFTER 06Z...
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AT KGSO WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 40KT...AND THE NAM...WHILE
DRIER...DOES HAVE A SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE WARM...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.
FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE FAIRLY SOON AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
WITHIN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN ANY SHOWER.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE (GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE). REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR TO
LIFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP
TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS WHEN CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING (MAYBE JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST)...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY...LIKELY
25-30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING POPS WILL TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT PCPN PAINTED BY MOSAIC RADAR ALONG WITH
ITS CURRENT AND FUTURE MOVEMENT. FOR POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE HRRR OUTPUT MIMICKING
PROGGED REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE FA AS WELL AS THE LATEST SREF
OVERNIGHT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. IN ESSENCE...THE
BEST SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE UVVS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. AND AS A RESULT...HAVE ALIGNED THE
HIER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA YOU WILL
FIND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS PLAN OF ACTION ALIGNS UP NICELY WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING CWAS. LATEST LIGHTNING OBSERVING NETWORK CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LACK OF ANY STRIKES UP TO THIS POINT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITHOUT INDICATING THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE PRE-
DAWN TUE HRS...AND CONTINUING INTO DAYLIGHT TUE MORNING. PROGGED
OVERNIGHT TSTORM PARAMETERS RATHER WEAK BUT NEVERTHELESS PRESENT
ENUF TO INCLUDE THUNDER. LATEST OBSERVED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOKING
AOK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SEE NO TWEAKING TO THE OVERNIGHT
MINS AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA AS EXPECTED...THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SE WINDS AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...SINCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED BY A DECENT INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...AND PERSISTENT VERY DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS INVERSION IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT...AND THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE...ALBEIT OF SHALLOW NATURE. THUS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED
COVERAGE/ACTIVITY AFTER DARK BEFORE PRECIP RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN POP GRIDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING
OVER THE WATERS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (POSSIBLY ONSHORE AS WELL)...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE SHOWN A
NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE...WITH MINS BEING REACHED A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S...SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N
TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT
SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH
TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS
EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND
FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS
VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL
CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO
THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON...
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU
NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWERED CIGS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.
VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AS VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWERED REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS GIVEN VARYING CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND SHOWERS...OVERALL THOUGH ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR AGAIN WITH
INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
BEING SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST. PRIMARY THREAT WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AOB 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING LATE VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS STILL SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER
INDUCED BY THE COOL SHELF WATERS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL STABLE MARINE LAYER DECREASES IN DEPTH ALLOWING SOME OF
THOSE HIER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TO DROP DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC.
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...AND INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. BUILDING
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND CONTINUE
INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
MAKE-UP COMES FROM A SE-S PSEUDO SWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE HAVING A
DECENT FETCH TO BUILD UPON. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CURRENT 10 KT S/SE WINDS UPWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG
DURATION FETCH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GROW TO 4-6 FT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO BEGIN
AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT. N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6
FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FOR NOW SCA
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND
FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
738 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING POPS WILL TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT PCPN PAINTED BY MOSAIC RADAR ALONG WITH
ITS CURRENT AND FUTURE MOVEMENT. FOR POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HAVE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE HRRR OUTPUT MIMICKING
PROGGED REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE FA AS WELL AS THE LATEST SREF
OVERNIGHT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. IN ESSENCE...THE
BEST SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE UVVS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE FA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. AND AS A RESULT...HAVE ALIGNED THE
HIER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA YOU WILL
FIND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS PLAN OF ACTION ALIGNS UP NICELY WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING CWAS. LATEST LIGHTNING OBSERVING NETWORK CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LACK OF ANY STRIKES UP TO THIS POINT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITHOUT INDICATING THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID INDICATE ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE PRE-
DAWN TUE HRS...AND CONTINUING INTO DAYLIGHT TUE MORNING. PROGGED
OVERNIGHT TSTORM PARAMETERS RATHER WEAK BUT NEVERTHELESS PRESENT
ENUF TO INCLUDE THUNDER. LATEST OBSERVED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOKING
AOK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND SEE NO TWEAKING TO THE OVERNIGHT
MINS AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA AS EXPECTED...THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SE WINDS AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...SINCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED BY A DECENT INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...AND PERSISTENT VERY DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS INVERSION IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT...AND THUS
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
CONVECTIVE...ALBEIT OF SHALLOW NATURE. THUS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED
COVERAGE/ACTIVITY AFTER DARK BEFORE PRECIP RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN POP GRIDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING
OVER THE WATERS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (POSSIBLY ONSHORE AS WELL)...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE SHOWN A
NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE...WITH MINS BEING REACHED A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPR 60S...SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT
RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA
FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL
WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N
TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT
SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY
PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH
TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS
EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND
FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT
AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS
TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS
VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL
CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO
THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON...
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU
NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE
NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STABLE LAYER AROUND 6500 FT HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE
A BIT CAPPED...BUT THAT STABLE LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
PRECIP...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS INLAND. WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 7-8
KTS OVERNIGHT...IN FACT THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TUESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE IN AND OUT WITH DECENT COVERAGE. MODELS
INDICATE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AFTER MIDDAY...STARTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH 55 KTS AT 2500 FEET.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY SPARE THE COAST FROM STRONG STORMS IF THEY WAIT
TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...WIND SPEEDS STILL SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE STABLE LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER
INDUCED BY THE COOL SHELF WATERS WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. AS THE SFC PG TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL STABLE MARINE LAYER DECREASES IN DEPTH ALLOWING SOME OF
THOSE HIER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TO DROP DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC.
THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...AND INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. BUILDING
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND CONTINUE
INTO DAYLIGHT TUE. CURRENTLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
MAKE-UP COMES FROM A SE-S PSEUDO SWELL FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE HAVING A
DECENT FETCH TO BUILD UPON. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS BY DAYBREAK TUE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY
RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CURRENT 10 KT S/SE WINDS UPWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
VEERING TO THE SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG
DURATION FETCH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
AMPLIFY TONIGHT. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GROW TO 4-6 FT
OVERNIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO BEGIN
AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT. N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6
FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FOR NOW SCA
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND
FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
351 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS CREATED ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING
DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME INCREASED MOISTURE HAS HELPED SPAWN
WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN DIURNAL CU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WESTWARD
ADVANCING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HRRR STILL SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CU TODAY BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 800MB IS PREVENTING MUCH
VERTICAL DEPTH TO THE CU...AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY
DRY. THUS...HAVE KEPT POP TO SILENT AND JUST CARRIED A TOKEN 5%
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE UNTIL NIGHTFALL. ANY PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG
WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER...WILL ERODE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH ACT TO PUMP ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. ONCE AGAIN
THERE MAY BE A FOG CONCERN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE SAME WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...CREATING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE 0. ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 25-30
KTS...ABOUT 10 KTS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY HELP
MIX OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES ARE
ALSO MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF FOG
OUT OF THE WX GRIDS...BUT SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY QUITE WARM ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOWS
DROPPING ONLY INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...UPPER 50S IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S UNDER A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE WINDS AT H8
AND H9 ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...PEAKING AROUND 50 KT AT H8 AROUND
18Z...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES PEAK IN THE 250 TO
350 RANGE. GIVEN FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS
UPPER 70S...CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE ON TAP. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED MAKE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY. A
POTENTIAL FURTHER COMPLICATION FOR TUESDAY IS TEMPERATURES. TEXT
MOS BULLETINS ARE GIVING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
UNLESS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BUT IF IT DID...THE
RESULTING CAPE VALUES WOULD REACH OR EXCEED 2500 J/KG. THAT WOULD
GREATLY ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
AND BRING A RAPID END TO THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONG
CAA SETS UP LATE AND MINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
ANOTHER WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT SHOULD END
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...EVOLVING INTO A
PERSISTENT WEDGE WED AND THU. NE TO E FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT
WILL BE TOPPED BY A WSW TO W FLOW. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THE DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK FORMIDABLE. THEREFORE...
WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS EASTERLY WED NIGHT
AND THU.
AS THE WEDGE REORIENTS ITSELF THU NIGHT AND FRI...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH. THE LONG TERM MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT DO
DIFFER AS TO ITS JUXTAPOSITION. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE
WEDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHOULD BE DRAWN TO A POSITION VERY NEAR...IF NOT ON THE COAST. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES DO
INCREASE FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE FOR SUN WITH PERHAPS AN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. COLUMN LOOKS MUCH TOO DRY
BELOW 10 KFT TO SUPPORT RAINFALL AND SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
THRESHOLD FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU AND MAXIMUMS MAY
NOT EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT
WILL BE WELL DOWN IN THE 40S AND MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME
INLAND SPOTS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER SLOWLY FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COMBINATION OF THE MEAN WIND AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN...STRONGEST AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. DIURNAL CU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BKN...ESPECIALLY INLAND...BUT VFR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH NIGHTFALL. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...BUT BELIEVE THE AIR ALOFT IS TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE...SO HAVE NOT
ADDED A MENTION INTO ANY TAF.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG LOCALLY...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE LESS THAN NEAR THE
COAST AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AT
FLO/LBT...ALONG WITH SOME SCT IFR STRATUS SINCE WINDS OF 25-30 KTS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION COULD FORCE A STRATUS LAYER AS OPPOSED
TO FOG. SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO ADVECT ONSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
TOWARDS MORNING.
VFR WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE
LOCALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS TODAY...BUT THESE WILL RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT TO
10-15 KTS FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS COMBINATION
OF INCREASED WINDS AND A CONTINUING LOW-AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 2-4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. S TO SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT MONDAY MORNING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND PEAK AROUND 7 FT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AFTER THE
FROPA TUESDAY EVENING...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING 8 OR 9 FT AT 20 NM BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING...WILL NOT ISSUE A 4TH
PERIOD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT ONE WILL BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE INTO WED.
THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED AND
THU. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO WED AND IT IS DURING THIS
TIME THAT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE MOST PROBABLE. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS...IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
THEREFORE...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THU NIGHT OR FRI. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE NE...VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ON FRI. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WED...7 TO 9 FT
AND UP TO 10 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AS A DRY AND CHILLY NE
SURGE ENVELOPS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...43/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
307 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 PM SUN...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THUS INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY...81-83F INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN
COAST. LASTEST HRRR AND MESOMODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
INLAND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND MAY
HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA-BREEZE TO PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO. CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER YESTERDAY WITH PWATS
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AROUND 2/3" AND WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A TYPICAL SEABREEZE PATTERN CLEARING CLOUDS FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EWD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING INCREASING SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING S/SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 900MB AS WELL AS
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT LATE...SO TREND SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
MIXING CONTINUES TO BRING MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED BY MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL US INTO EAST WHILE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE LIFTING OUT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION AND
MAYBE SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THEN EXPECTING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 500+ J/KG WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET, LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF -2 TO -4 AND PW VALUES TO 1.75" WHICH IS > +2 SD FROM NORMAL.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S ESPECIALLY IF ANY PROLONGED
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOP.
WANING CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH. LOWS MAY REACH NEAR 40 INLAND EARLY WED AND DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH PERSISTS IN THE WEDGE SURFACE
PATTERN, HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY
IN STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRES WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS INLAND POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S DEPENDING ON
THE DEGREE OF DECOUPLING. HOWEVER AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH STILL INFLUENCES THE
WEATHER WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S WHICH IS
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND WILL BE LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A LOT SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. THE WEDGE
PATTERN OF MID WEEK WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST WITH POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT ALONG OR JUST
OFF OF THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH/POSSIBLE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA. THUS WILL NEED TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS.
DRIER WEATHER COULD BE IN STORE FOR EASTER SUNDAY IF A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE MOISTURE OFFSHORE.
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS MODERATING
FROM THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S FRIDAY BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCUMULUS OVERSPREADS THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 2K FT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LEAD TO
PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PREDOMINANT VFR
RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN FRIDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATES SOUTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING S/SSW FLOW.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING BUT SOME TIGHTENING OF
THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES WINDS TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONG SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS SHIFT MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 115 PM SUN...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THUS INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY...81-83F INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN
COAST. LASTEST HRRR AND MESOMODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
INLAND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND MAY
HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA-BREEZE TO PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO. CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER YESTERDAY WITH PWATS
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AROUND 2/3" AND WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A TYPICAL SEABREEZE PATTERN CLEARING CLOUDS FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EWD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING INCREASING SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING S/SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 900MB AS WELL AS
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT LATE...SO TREND SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
MIXING CONTINUES TO BRING MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FULL
LATITUDE TROF DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE PROVIDING A
DEEPENING MOIST SW FLOW MONDAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SHUD SEE PLENTY OF SUN EARLY
MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND (AROUND 70
BEACHES) ON THE MILD SW FLOW BEFORE AFTERNOON INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN. THE MILD SW FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SHARP UPPER TROF
AND SFC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. CAPE VALUES 500+ J/KG AND 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL MENTION THE
THREAT IN UPDATED HWO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY PUT A LID
ON HIGH TEMPS BUT MOST AREAS SHUD REACH INTO THE 70S ESPECIALLY IF
ANY PROLONGED SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
WANING CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. LOWS MAY REACH NEAR 40 INLAND EARLY WED AND DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS 15-20 DEGS BLO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS INLAND POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE
COAST WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN
OFFSHORE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BACKS UP TOWARD THE SE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
SURGING BACK INTO THE 60S THU/FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE LATE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND COURTESY OF THE INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROF AND APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCUMULUS OVERSPREADS THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 2K FT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSTMS LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
GUSTY SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT
TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATES SOUTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING S/SSW FLOW.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING BUT SOME TIGHTENING OF
THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES WINDS TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY NEARING GALE FORCE AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY
DECREASING THRU THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...BTC/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING DAY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH IS WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IT CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS EXPANDED OVERHEAD...FORCING
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON
12Z KCHS SOUNDING WITH MOISTURE ONLY PRESENT ABOVE 300MB...AND NOTED
LOCALLY BY WIDESPREAD AIRCRAFT CONTRAILS PERSISTING OUTSIDE THE ILM
WFO THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE SOARED ABOVE ANY OF THE FORECAST CURVES
THUS FAR...AND HAVE BUMPED INHERITED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD 80+ EXPECTED TODAY...MID 70S AT
THE BEACHES.
HRRR ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...AND HAVE CARRIED A TOKEN 5% POP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...EXPECT IT IS ONCE AGAIN OVERDOING
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NOTING HOW DRY SOUNDINGS ARE AND HOW SIGNIFICANT
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO
BECOME MODERATE AND WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY...BUT NO PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON A
SLOWLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL DROP TO
A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 60 BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE CAROLINAS
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FURTHER OFF SHORE. AS THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY A DEEP S TO SW FLO WILL
DEVELOP. WILL BASICALLY SEE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM
ENVIRONMENT AS WE TAP INTO BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON EVENING. THE
MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE PROFILES
AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER RH LEVELS CONFINED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS AND BELOW H50...BUT BY MON EVENING INTO TUES INCREASING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHC OF PCP MON NIGHT INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S AND WITH
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 60S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
GENERATING COASTAL SHOWERS FEEDING ON SHORE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY NOON ON TUES A LLJ INCREASES UP TO 45 KTS. LOOKS LIKE
THE THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL COME THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO THE EVENING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE GREATEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER DAMAGING WINDS. SPC INCLUDED CAROLINAS IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR TUES WITH WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT MENTION OF
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND PCP WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES...TEMPS WILL REACH CLOSER TO 80 WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM AROUND 14 C DOWN CLOSE TO 6C IN COOL NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS
MAY BE TRICKY ON WED. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE
PRESENT TO OFFSET THIS CAA AND THEREFORE EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA. THEREFORE DEPENDING ON QUICKLY WE CLEAR
AND HOW MUCH SUN WE GET...COULD MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE WED
AFTN TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AN ALMOST 20 DEGREE DROP FROM
PREVIOUS DAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI WHILE THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN
DEVELOPS WITH WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME DECENT WEATHER THROUGH WED INTO
THURS WITH INCREASING LIFT WITH CLOUDS AND PCP MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL
THINK GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL ENTER INTO THE FORECAST
BY LATE THURS THROUGH FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BUT
WARMING EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHES OF DENSE FOG INLAND WILL MIX OUT SOMETIME
BETWEEN 13-14Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. THE RUC HAS ABOUT 1000 CAPE
BY MIDDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE HRRR KICKS OFF A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS BY 16Z...BUT THINK IT WILL BE SPRINKLE AT MOST.
MORE THAN LIKELY JUST MODERATE CU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY...PICKING UP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST MIXING CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...VERY CALM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS ACTUALLY REPORTING 0 KTS OF WIND
WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT AND CALM CONDITIONS...AND
ALTHOUGH S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS LATER
TODAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS OF 1-2 FT CURRENTLY WILL RISE TO 2-3 FT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL AND SE WIND WAVE
COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WITH S-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS BY AFTN AND UP TO 15 TO
20 KTS BY MON NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS
UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY MON EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO TO INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH
TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING BUT
WILL REMAIN HIGH IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT
INTO WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL LAST
AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED IN WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 6 TO 8 FT EARLY WED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE
AND LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY THURS WITH SEAS
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS...BUT REMAINING 4 TO
6 FT THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
710 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM UPDATE...I HAVE
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PER OBSERVATIONS...THE DRY COLUMN AND
FADING...FOR THE MOMENT...CIRRUS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A
BIT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO ADDED MORE PATCHY FOG.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WONDERFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE ONLY
GAME IN TOWN IS THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE PERIODS.
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE BUT THE NAM/MET NUMBERS HAVE A SLIGHT
EDGE...WARMER AND WENT WITH THESE NUMBERS. &&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE CAROLINAS
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FURTHER OFF SHORE. AS THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY A DEEP S TO SW FLO WILL
DEVELOP. WILL BASICALLY SEE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM
ENVIRONMENT AS WE TAP INTO BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON EVENING. THE
MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE PROFILES
AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER RH LEVELS CONFINED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS AND BELOW H50...BUT BY MON EVENING INTO TUES INCREASING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHC OF PCP MON NIGHT INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S AND WITH
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 60S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
GENERATING COASTAL SHOWERS FEEDING ON SHORE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY NOON ON TUES A LLJ INCREASES UP TO 45 KTS. LOOKS LIKE
THE THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL COME THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO THE EVENING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE GREATEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER DAMAGING WINDS. SPC INCLUDED CAROLINAS IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR TUES WITH WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT MENTION OF
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND PCP WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES...TEMPS WILL REACH CLOSER TO 80 WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM AROUND 14 C DOWN CLOSE TO 6C IN COOL NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS
MAY BE TRICKY ON WED. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE
PRESENT TO OFFSET THIS CAA AND THEREFORE EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA. THEREFORE DEPENDING ON QUICKLY WE CLEAR
AND HOW MUCH SUN WE GET...COULD MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE WED
AFTN TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AN ALMOST 20 DEGREE DROP FROM
PREVIOUS DAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI WHILE THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN
DEVELOPS WITH WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME DECENT WEATHER THROUGH WED INTO
THURS WITH INCREASING LIFT WITH CLOUDS AND PCP MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL
THINK GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL ENTER INTO THE FORECAST
BY LATE THURS THROUGH FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BUT
WARMING EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHES OF DENSE FOG INLAND WILL MIX OUT SOMETIME
BETWEEN 13-14Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. THE RUC HAS ABOUT 1000 CAPE
BY MIDDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE HRRR KICKS OFF A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS BY 16Z...BUT THINK IT WILL BE SPRINKLE AT MOST.
MORE THAN LIKELY JUST MODERATE CU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY...PICKING UP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST MIXING CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...JUST LIKE THE PUBLIC PART OF THE
FORECAST...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE TRANQUIL AS WILL. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE PROVIDING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS...PROBABLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE. THE
FETCH HAS BEEN IN PLACE A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW BUT THE WAVE SPECTRUM
IS STILL PRIMARILY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT MUCH OF THE
SAME TODAY AS WE SAW SATURDAY...2-3 FEET.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WITH S-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS BY AFTN AND UP TO 15 TO
20 KTS BY MON NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS
UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY MON EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO TO INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH
TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING BUT
WILL REMAIN HIGH IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT
INTO WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL LAST
AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED IN WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 6 TO 8 FT EARLY WED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE
AND LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY THURS WITH SEAS
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS...BUT REMAINING 4 TO
6 FT THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES. STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGES. ALSO INCREASE SKY THERE FOR CONSISTENCY. REST OF
FORECAST REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6 AM UPDATE. WIDELY SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...ON THE NOSE OF AN 850
MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THESE ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF PERRY...VINTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE JUST
A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO WILL DECREASE TO JUST MAINLY THIN CIRRUS DURING THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF AREA NO CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA. SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS EXPECTED. RADAR VAD WINDS SHOW SOUTHWEST
WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ABOUT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD PRODUCE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE MAINLY AFFECTING BKW AND EKN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT. UNDER WAA AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COULD DECOUPLE PRODUCING
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS WINDS
ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE LLWS FOR AREAS THAT DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY WITH DIURNAL MIXING GUSTY UP
TO 30 KNOTS ACCOUNTING FOR BUFKIT SOUNDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
MIXING COULD BE BEST IF A DIURNAL DECK CU DEVELOPS PROVIDING AREAS
OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THE INCREASE IN WINDS IS DUE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD
ENTER SOUTHEAST OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR BY 18Z MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP OVER BKW AND OTHER MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS UNDER SURFACE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR CEILINGS AROUND
8000 FEET AND A BRIEF SHOWER OVER PARTS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS COULD BE INCLUDED IN TAF LATER IF
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...MAINLY AT EKN AND CRW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ/26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
747 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGES. ALSO INCREASE SKY THERE FOR CONSISTENCY. REST OF
FORECAST REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6 AM UPDATE. WIDELY SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...ON THE NOSE OF AN 850
MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THESE ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF PERRY...VINTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE JUST
A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO WILL DECREASE TO JUST MAINLY THIN CIRRUS DURING THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF AREA NO CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXCEPT FOR CEILINGS AROUND 8000 FEET AND A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THRU 14Z...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 06Z WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.
CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
614 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. WIDELY SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...ON THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THESE ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
PERRY...VINTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER DAWN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL DECREASE TO
JUST MAINLY THIN CIRRUS DURING THE DAY. REMAINDER OF AREA NO CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXCEPT FOR CEILINGS AROUND 8000 FEET AND A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THRU 14Z...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 06Z WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.
CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES. STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU
06Z...THEN CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU 12Z. NO PRECIP.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/13/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
409 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODELS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS
OVER TIME...WITH TORNADO PROBABILITIES BEING QUITE LOW DUE TO THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT DIE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS SO THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY UPPER TROF
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A FREEZE IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE NOW
PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FREEZE WARNING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON...WHICH AT TUL/MLC/FYV/FSM ARE THE SAME
AS THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE OF APRIL 15TH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 38 47 28 61 / 50 30 0 0
FSM 46 50 28 61 / 80 30 10 0
MLC 41 48 29 61 / 60 20 10 0
BVO 36 47 25 61 / 40 30 0 0
FYV 39 43 24 57 / 80 30 10 0
BYV 40 43 25 56 / 80 40 10 0
MKO 40 47 27 60 / 60 30 10 0
MIO 37 44 26 59 / 50 40 10 0
F10 39 47 28 61 / 50 20 10 0
HHW 46 52 30 60 / 70 20 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
415 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE BACKED AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT MID-
LEVEL WESTERLY JET WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
FORCED LINE OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
.OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SPECIFICALLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1000 TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE ON HAND...ALONG WITH LI/S -6 TO
-8C...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 60KTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS AND THE LOCATION OF LOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 30S...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
TO FEND OFF ANY FROST FORMING OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
BE WHAT DEVELOPS INSTEAD.
BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S
DURING THE DAY AS STRONG CAA WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL DAY LONG.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF VERY QUICKLY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S
AND MANY PLACES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WARNING
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-SOUTH.
.THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN BY LATE SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF TSRA ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. FOR THE
18Z TAFS... HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON 12Z
NAM AND 15Z HRRR MODELS. TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY PERIOD
BEYOND 03Z...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF. HAVE LIMITED TS/VCTS MENTION TO
THOSE PERIODS MOST FAVORABLE. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE LULL
DURING THE 11Z TO 15Z PERIOD...BUT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
WITH SCATTERED SHRA.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE STRONG
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WHICH IS JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TODAY AND RAIN ARRIVING INTO MID-SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NEW ZONES AND GRIDS ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
AC3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH MORE RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN THEY ARE RIGHT NOW.
THERE WILL BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEST ARKANSAS BY
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
POSSIBLY TRACK AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE SUNSET. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS AREA
INCLUDES LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TO
OXFORD. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND IN A DIRECTION MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ENHANCING INSTABILITY TO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG
OVERNIGHT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 50-55KT AND A MID LEVEL JET OF 70
KTS. DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO VENT STORMS
EARLY...BUT DIMINISHES A BIT BY 06Z. BEFORE MIDNIGHT FEEL LIKE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH RATHER
THAN DEVELOP HERE...SO IT SHOULD GIVE US A BIT MORE TIME TO
PREPARE AS WE SEE THINGS INITIATE TO OUR WEST. A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SUSTAINED BETWEEN 17 AND 22KT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH FALLING
OR STEADY TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S. A
FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AREA WIDE AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. IT SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S.
THE WARMING TREND...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS QUESTIONABLE. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH IN ITS
SOLUTION...BUT HAS TRENDED WETTER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW...BUT LIKELY TREND WETTER IN UPCOMING UPDATES.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND DRY.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF TSRA ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. FOR THE
18Z TAFS... HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON 12Z
NAM AND 15Z HRRR MODELS. TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY PERIOD
BEYOND 03Z...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF. HAVE LIMITED TS/VCTS MENTION TO
THOSE PERIODS MOST FAVORABLE. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE LULL
DURING THE 11Z TO 15Z PERIOD...BUT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
WITH SCATTERED SHRA.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
905 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL SEEN ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE ATTM DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS. MODELS REMAIN OVERDONE
WITH DEGREE OF LIFT UNDER PASSING SHORTWAVES WELL AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REMAINS MORE SW AND
FORCING WEAK. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON LIGHTER SHRA
FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE THE FLOW DEEPENS/BACKS AND BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY JET ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY REBOUND TO CATEGORICAL MOST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT AS BANDS OF SHRA BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AS WEAK INSTABILITY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS
LATE. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND FIELDS INCLUDED A LOW
TOPPED TSRA MENTION ESPCLY FAR WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND
DAWN AND OUT EAST FOR LOW TOPPED BANDS LATE AS WELL. BUMPED UP
LOWS A LITTLE OUT WEST AS EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE JUST SLOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP MOST TEMP FALLS FROM OCCURRING UNTIL THE MORNING. OTRW A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WINDS AND LOW TOPPED SHRA THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING TUESDAY WITH
STRONG ENOUGH GUSTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY BLUE RIDGE
SECTIONS WITH POSSIBLE BANDED SHRA OUT EAST DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO
GIVE THE MIDSHIFT ANOTHER LOOK RATHER THAN HOISTING A WIND
ADVISORY TONIGHT AS MAY BE CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE SW
FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW MADE SOME ADJUSTS TO TIMING
OF THE HEAVIER SHRA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS STARTING TO ENTER THE WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS AND
LATEST LOCAL HIGH-RES FAVOR SLOWER TIMING TO THE EAST THRU
DUSK...BUT BY MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS AS SERIES OF UPPER VORTS MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES INTO VA. APPEARS THUNDER THREAT WILL STAY
ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN INSTABILITY IS WEAK. GOOD JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT EASING THE FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z-15Z TUESDAY AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FRONT MOVING THROUGH APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT
AROUND THE BACKSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY JET TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN WELL
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RUSH OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN ABOUT 2-4 HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT CHANGING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN WARMER GROUND THE SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE RIDGETOPS ABOVE 3000 FT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED FLOODING GIVEN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING...ALTHOUGH SPEED OF
FRONT MAY HINDER IT SOME. STILL QPF LOOKING ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER SEEMS LIKELY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. EVEN THE RIVER ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE NOT TAKING ANY RIVER STAGES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN THOUGH...GIVEN AMOUNTS SEEM
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK.
THE OTHER ISSUE SHOULD BE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS 6 HR PRESSURE
RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 12 MB ARE EXPECTED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
UP IN WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT
AREAS. WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE RUN OF THE MODELS AS CLOUD COVER WILL
TEMPER SOME OF THE GUSTS ABOVE INVERSION. HWO WILL MENTION WIND
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL BE SEEING SLOW FALLING AT BEST OVERNIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW...WITH SHOWERS HELPING TO COOL IT SOME.
TOMORROW WILL BE MILD IN THE FAR EAST BUT TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DUSK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...
H85 TEMPS PLUNGE BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARING
-12C PER THE GFS. MOISTURE DRIES OUT RATHER QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN HOUR OR TWO OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE A QUICK HALF INCH OR LESS
MAY FALL ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY FALL FOR A
BRIEF TIME DOWN TO BLUEFIELD...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY....WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE...AND H85 JET
NEAR 50KTS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NW
NC/EXTREME SW VA AT THE VERY LEAST. POSSIBLY A SMALL WINDOW
TUESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS NW NC. 1030MB HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS QUICKLY...AND MOS GUIDANCE IS
SOLIDLY AT OR BELOW 32F FOR LOWS WED MORNING EVEN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE. BECAUSE OF THIS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND
SOMETIMES LOWS COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THIS SETUP. THUS
THE CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE MAY BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...SOUTHSIDE/NC PIEDMONT. MUCH BETTER CHANCE NORTH
OF THIS REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS IS PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY SUNNY DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED. WITH LESS
WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS WED PM...CONDS
MAY BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WITH
ANOTHER WATCH NECESSARY WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST...AND
WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY DEPARTS THIS WEEKEND. WITH A
RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...QUESTIONABLE IF THIS MIDWEST
TROUGH PRODUCES ANY PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. OP GFS IS FAR MORE WET THAN THE
ECMWF. THUS...POPS WERE KEPT RATHER LOW. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW TAKES
SHAPE BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UNEVENTFUL AND
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CIGS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATING ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY AND PERHAPS A BREAK
BEFORE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ARRIVES LATER...HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF SUB-VFR VSBYS THIS EVENING. APPEARS ONCE THE
MAIN AREA OF LIFT STARTS TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT WILL SEE
HEAVIER SHOWERS RESULT IN VSBYS FALLING TO HIGH END IFR/LOW END
MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A TSRA IS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MAY
ALIGN IN A NARROW BAND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK
OVER THE FAR WEST BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE/THREAT OVERALL TO HAVE
IN TAFS.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PASSING THE BLF/LWB REGION AROUND 13Z/9AM AND
THEN EAST TO BCB/ROA BY NOON AND THE EASTERN SITES 18-20Z. FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW WITH GUSTS TOPPING 30-40 KTS OVER
THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. LOWER IFR/LIFR UPSLOPE DRIVEN CIGS LIKELY
AROUND KBLF WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AT BLF AND POSSIBLY LWB IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD
PULL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO HIGH END MVFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS MAY LINGER OUT EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
LYH/DAN PERSISTING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER SMALL
WINDOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KTS MOST SPOTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH THIS SCENARIO CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TO THE NW. THIS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OTRW VFR ELSW TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
BUSY PERIOD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HEAVY RAIN...SNOW...AND STRONG
WINDS ARE ALL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CURRENTLY...THE LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED WARM
FRONT THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP IN THE REGION. MOST
OF THE 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT THE 13.19Z RAP SHOWS STAYS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND DOES NOT REACH THE REGION. SO...THINKING THAT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THIS RAIN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN STILL FORECAST FOR THE SAME
AREAS THAT WERE HIT BY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...HAVE KEPT
THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WE GO WHERE THE CONCERN IS ON WHEN
THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH HOW WINDY IT WILL BE. IN REGARD TO THE
SNOW...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON WHAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE. LOOKING OUT WEST
RIGHT NOW...MOST OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING SNOW ARE IN THE
30F TO 35F RANGE THOUGH SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURE DROPS APPEAR TO
BE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING THANKS TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH THE COLUMN. BASED ON THE 13.19Z RAP & 13.12Z NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANGE OVER SHOULD OCCUR TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 8-10PM IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS CHANGE OVER WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SNOW TOTALS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS A
RESULT SINCE A LOT HINGES ON HOW FAST THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...IS
THERE STRONG FORCING STILL THERE AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND
ALSO IF THERE EVEN IS ICE THERE AS A LOT OF THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER BETWEEN -8C TO -20C. MOST OF THE 13.12Z COBB DATA FROM
THE NAM/GFS IS SHOWING ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCURRING OVERNIGHT
THOUGH A LOT OF THE SREF DATA IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT. GIVEN THE
NUMBER OF NEGATIVES WORKING AGAINST THIS...TRENDED TOWARD THESE
LOWER TOTALS WHICH STILL ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT PREVIOUSLY WAS
BEING FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. THE MAIN SNOW SHOULD FALL BETWEEN
7PM-1AM IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN BETWEEN
1AM-7AM IN WESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHEAST IOWA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH THE LOW. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE 30 TO 40KT WINDS
ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE AREA WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. CONCERNED
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST IOWA WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME 35 TO 40KT WINDS MIXING DOWN AS THE SNOW IS COMING
DOWN. DISCUSSED THE IDEA OF DOING A WINTER WEATHER OR WIND ADVISORY
WITH MPX/DMX...BUT DECIDED THAT THE WIND GUSTS MAY NOT HIT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A LARGE IMPACT. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS
EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE QUICK UPGRADE WITH THE 9PM TO 3AM TIME
FRAME THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORIES THROUGH THIS WEEK ARE WITH THE POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER IN THE WEEK.
MORE FOCUS WENT INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SINCE
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE
13.12Z NAM/GFS DEVELOPS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 13.12Z ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE NAM/GFS SCENARIOS THOUGH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE THANKS TO THE ECMWF. IT LOOKS LIKE WE GET
WARM SECTORED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM STALLS OUT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SETTING UP FROM UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
IOWA ON THURSDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS THEN SPINS UP A POTENT SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY THAT TRACKS THROUGH WISCONSIN WHILE EH ECMWF HARDLY HAS A
LOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
WIDESPREAD -RA/RA AND SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 1 TO
4SM RANGE WITH IFR CIGS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR THEN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE RAIN MIXING WITH/
CHANGING TO SNOW THRU THE MID EVENING HOURS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN QUITE TIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15-20KTS G25-30KTS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST FOR LATER TONIGHT/MON. DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END AROUND 07Z AT KRST
AND AROUND 09Z AT KLSE...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR AND CIGS RISING
INTO MVFR/VFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN FALLING INTO TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THIS AREA AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...SAW NO NEED TO DROP
IT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH INSTABILITY THAT MAKES IT UP
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SO MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD NOT FALL AT A GREAT ENOUGH OF A RATE TO PROMPT FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ043-044-053>055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1051 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY INITIATING SINCE NOON MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN CARBON
COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -1C AND PROGD SBCAPE VALUES
OF 200-500 J/KG ARE REALIZED. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE TURNED
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING
ACROSS COLORADO. AT 20Z...THE BEST PRESSURE RISES WERE FOUND ACROSS
MONTANA AND WRN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN. SATELLITE PIX STILL SHOW
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING SE THRU THE PACNW AND THE SRN
STREAM ACCELERATING ENE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE NRN STREAM ENERGY FOLLOWS...TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ALTHO THE BULK OF THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...IT HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TRAILING AND STRONGER NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE. AS THE COLD AIR
MASS SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT...PERSISTENT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE IT
WILL SET-UP FAVORABLE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT. ADDITIONALLY...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHICS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES. H3 JET COUPLING OF RRQ/LFQ WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE MOIST ASCENT. PROGD BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWS
SATURATION WITHIN THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW EVENT MAINLY IMPACTING SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE INHERITED...POINTING TO 4 TO 8
INCHES BELOW 7500 FEET IN SE WY...WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND MOST
OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE EITHER LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS EXIST OR LOWER ELEVATIONS DELAYS TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS GUST UP TO 35 MPH. THE
ONE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS WHAT IMPACT IF ANY THE STEEPER SUN
ANGLE HAS DURING THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...
THINK SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS. IN AN
EARLIER UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE ALSO ISSUED ADVISORIES IN COUNTIES
CLOSEST TO THE NEBRASKA STATELINE AND NRN SIOUX COUNTY. DELAYED THE
BEGINNING TIME ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO 3 AM...AS THE
COLDER AIR WILL GET IN A BIT LATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING...SO THE 00Z
MONDAY END TIME OF THE HAZARD STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS ARE GOING
TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE 20S MANY AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
MONDAY...MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DUE TO HIGH ALBEDO FROM THE RECENT SNOWPACK...THOUGH
STILL EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO RATHER HIGH MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL WINDS.
TUESDAY...DECENT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
WEST NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT FROM MONTANA AND IDAHO...BOOSTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S AND SOME LOWER 60S DUE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 0 CELSIUS.
WEDNESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO LIFT FROM CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH LEFTOVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AND PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FRIDAY...TYPICAL MID APRIL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT...AND OUR COUNTIES WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING...THUS YIELDING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
OVER THE PINE RIDGE FROM LUSK TO NEAR CHADRON.
SATURDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE. SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP BASED ON PROJECTED 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...NEAR 5610 METERS AND 2
CELSIUS...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
LATEST HRRR FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR AS WE ARE STILL VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS. BASED ON THIS
TREND...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF A COUPLE HOURS ON IFR CONDITIONS FOR
AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. EVENTUALLY...THE WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...SAY AFTER 08 TO 09Z
AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. SNOW ENDS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT
SPRING SNOWSTORM BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ102.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ101-103>105-
110-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ106-107-
115>118.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ108-
112-119.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ095.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
406 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
Extreme fire danger conditions return for portions of north
central Kansas followed by strong winds and warmer temperatures.
Departing upper trough continues to track eastward over the Mid
Atlantic region as quiet and cold conditions have settled across
northeast Kansas this morning. A quick rebound in temperatures is on
tap for today as variable winds shift to the south, advecting warmer
air into the area. A surface trough, currently positioned over
northern Colorado, deepens eastward this afternoon, increasing
southwesterly winds 15 to 20 MPH west to east after 1 PM across
north central areas. Sounding profilers depict strong mixing through
800 MB across the area, lowering dewpoint temperatures into the
lower 20s and upper teens. Please refer to the fire weather
discussion below for additional details. Have issued a Red Flag
Warning for low humidity and gusty winds for this afternoon into the
early evening across portions of north central Kansas. Highs today
are expected to recover into the upper 50s and low 60s by late
afternoon underneath sunny skies.
Southerly winds increase between 20 and 25 mph sustained this
evening as a strong 70 kt low level jet develops coincident with
the upper trough over the northern plains. The increased mid level
clouds from the passing system and the mixed boundary layer should
keep overnight lows much warmer in the lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
Early Wednesday morning, a 60 kt low level jet will be oriented
across the forecast area. While this jet will weaken and gradually
slide to the east, morning mixing will likely bring some rather
strong wind gusts to the surface by 10 AM or so...potentially in
the 45 to 50 mph range. Have not quite gone that high in the
forecast given high cloud cover and a fairly rapid decrease in
wind speeds by late morning, but it is possible. Expect a rather
warm day on Wednesday although a cold front will make its way into
the northwest half of the area by late afternoon. Will likely have
a thermal ridge very near the frontal boundary which would focus
the warmest temps near and just ahead of the front. With the wind,
warm temps, and relatively dry low levels, will have fire weather
concerns for Wed as well...more details in the fire weather
section below.
The front will continue to slowly progress through the area
overnight, although it`s expected to be a dry front through
midnight or so. Beyond midnight, and incoming short wave trough
will interact with the frontal zone as it becomes nearly
stationary near/just south of the forecast area. This will result
in an enhanced area of vertical motion spreading east across KS,
focused mainly across the southern 2/3 of the forecast area.
Expect this to persist through the day on Thursday before the wave
passes overhead on Thursday evening and subsidence takes over.
Expect rather persistent light precipitation with this system. THE
ECMWF is on the dry side of model guidance in terms of total QPF
while it seems that the NAM/GFS are probably picking up on some of
the expected mesoscale lift enhancements and producing slightly
higher amounts. Dry advection from the north will provide a sharp
cutoff to the precipitation, and have reduced POPs in northern KS
with some potential for areas near the Nebraska border to end up
dry if the dry advection is strong enough. Precip type will be
predominantly rain although there seems to be a period early
Thursday morning when it could change to snow especially on the
northern fringes of the precip area. Accumulation appears unlikely
at this time.
Will see a nice warm-up for the weekend as upper ridging returns
to the area on the heels of the Thursday system. Expect moisture
advection to bring dewpoints well into the 50s by Saturday in
advance of the next upper trough. This system has trended slightly
slower over recent model runs but otherwise fairly consistent in
bringing another chance for widespread precipitation to the area.
Do not expect much instability with this storm system but could
still see periods of thunder. This looks to be a pretty widespread
rain with the best chances Saturday night into Sunday, but do not
expect particularly heavy amounts. Should also see continued warm
temperatures throughout the weekend with highs in the upper 60s,
and even warmer behind the system on Monday as little to no cold
advection is expected behind the trough.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...(This Afternoon and Wednesday)
Issued at 4 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014
Expect southerly winds over north central Kansas to quickly increase
after 12 PM as a surface trough rapidly deepens over the central and
northern plains. 850 MB winds increase from near 10 KTS to over 30
KTS by 3 PM this afternoon, mixing dewpoint temperatures down into
the upper teens. Decided to use a combination of the latest RAP and
NAM, with a lean towards the RAP as previous events trended drier
than forecast. These extreme fire danger conditions with the
continuation of critical fuels has prompted a Red Flag Warning after
1 PM for Cloud, Republic, and Ottawa counties. Very high fire danger
conditions exist across the remainder of the CWA this afternoon into
the early evening. It is important to note the southerly winds will
increase through the evening and overnight hours with gusts near 30
MPH and sustained speeds between 20 and 25 mph.
For Wednesday, should start the day windy with lower than normal
sunrise RH. While there will be some modest moisture increase
with the southerly winds, expect it to be shallow. Deep mixing by
late morning to early afternoon will pull drier air to the surface
along with potentially very strong wind gusts. At the same time,
the incoming cold front will bring a zone of much lighter winds as
far east as Manhattan by mid afternoon although RH may be lowest
near the front. Behind the front, temperatures will not be much
cooler and winds will increase out of the northwest. All-in-all,
expect the most volatile combination of strong wind and low RH to
be southeast of an Abilene to Seneca line through the day...many
of the areas to see the highest rainfall totals this past weekend.
Current MinRH forecast is in the 22 to 27 percent range but could
see it ending up a bit lower while winds in this area gust to 40+
mph.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014
VFR conditions expected through the taf period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KS WITH N-NW GRADIENT OVER
KS/NE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR CWA. SNOW PACK HAS RETREATED
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...WHILE VIS SATELLITE INDICATES IT HOLDING ON
OVER PARTS OF NE COLORADO AND ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE WHERE AROUND
INCHES OF SNOW FELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH H3 JET STEAM IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING AND HAS LED TO
CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS NOSE OF JET
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG WITH
THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYER FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA...OTHERWISE WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CU OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS A
BETTER SHOWER WE COULD SEE A FLURRY INSTEAD OF SPRINKLE
THROUGH...BUT I DIDN`T SEE A REASON TO GET THAT CUTE CONSIDERING
CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY LOW ON PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR NE
CWA.
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
W-SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY...CONTINUE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOW PACK COULD STILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH
SW WINDS COMING FROM SNOW FREE LOCATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
MELTING OF SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WEST
AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTING LOWER TD VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A DECREASING TREND IN THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST...SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR WIND/RH CROSSOVER. OF COURSE THERE IS ALSO THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER FUELS WILL BE CURED AFTER RECENT PRECIP
(ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK). WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERLY BRANCH TRIES TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERLY
BRANCH.
THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF
LAGS BEHIND NEARLY 24 HOURS. THIS IS PROVING TO BE TROUBLESOME
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN A
LATE FRIDAY TO LATE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH SOME KIND
OF BLENDED COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION.
BACKTRACKING TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY END UP STAYING MORE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLDER AND WET BULB ZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER AS THEY WERE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM THAT
DEPOSITED SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL INCREASE A BIT TOWARD 15KTS
AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS
THROUGH 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 12KTS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 06KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z BEFORE
BACKING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 11KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
ERN TX. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD
-SHSN TO NEAR IWD WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MANTIOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO WAS SLIDING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...NRLY FLOW PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDINGD FROM MANTIOBA
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE ERN LAKES INTO SRN
QUEBEC. THE NORTH WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C SUPPORTED
SOME LIGHT LES TO NEAR P53 DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE
ERN LAKE.
TODAY...THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES
TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LES
THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. SOME ISOLD -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN
LAKE SHRTWV ARE EXPECTED SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS MORNING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8-9C/KM WITH 850/700 MB
TEMPS OF -17C/-27C WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
WEST AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING
TO AROUND A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP OF 27 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI
DIMINISH...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 8F TO 15F RANGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY CLIMB LATE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAA
LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FEATURE OF
INTEREST THAT HELPS TO FOCUS SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SHIELD OF
SNOW VCNTY OF CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY TREND IN MODELS IT IS FOR A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF QPF/SNOW INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 12Z-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. TREND IS NOTHING TOO DRASTIC THOUGH...SO CHANGES TO THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TO UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED ON
290K SFC /H775-H650/ AND 285K SFC /H8-H7/ SURGES SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 15Z-03Z...THOUGH GFS/NAM REMAIN QUICKER
WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE MAINLY SNOW FOR
CWA. H7 MIXING RATIOS IN 2.5-2.75G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW
AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES. SUPPOSE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE
HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN SOME INSOLATION
COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS.
THUS OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW COULD BE MITIGATED SOME
COMPARED TO IF THE SNOW ARRIVED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ULTIMATELY IT ALL DEPENDS ON SNOWFALL RATES...WITH HIGHER RATES
ALLOWING FOR SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON THE PRIMARY ROADS.
NAM QPF STILL APPEARS OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN
MIXING RATIOS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT AREAS OVER MAINLY WESTERN TIER OF
CWA WILL SEE HIGHER QPF/SNOW DUE TO INCREASING AND FAIRLY ROBUST
H8-H7 FGEN AND STRONG FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FAR WEST TOWARD KEWEENAW
SEEMS IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING
WHICH COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH INSTABILITY AS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IS
PRESENT ATOP THE FGEN. NET RESULT IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CWA.
EVEN TRENDING AWAY FM THE NAM 1 INCH PLUS QPF AMOUNTS...BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS WILL SEE 0.8 INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SREF PROBS SHOWING OVER 70 PCT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH BUT NOT EVEN REACHING 10 PCT PROBS OF SEEING 1
INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW BULK OF LIFT OCCURRING IN THE
DGZ UP OVER 10KFT AGL. LIFT BLO THIS LAYER IN TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C
WILL LOWER SLR/S SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS CENTERED IN THE 12:1
RANGE...A BIT HIGHER IN THE FGEN AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS BLO 5KFT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS DECENT LIKLIHOOD OF SEEING TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES OVER WEST VCNTY OF PERSISTENT FGEN FORCING...BUT
PROBABLY MORE IN THE 7 TO 10 RANGE FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL CWA.
SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE CNTRL CWA...COORD WITH GRB
AND DLH AND WILL BE LEAVING WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS ATTM.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES INDICATE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE GENERALLY SNOW. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS SOUTH
OF LINE FM KIMT TO KERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ONLY
RAIN REMAINS AT KMNM AS WBZERO HEIGHT INCREASE OVER 2000FT AGL. MAY
SEE MORE AREAS CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S...BUT HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH
OF CWA BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXITING DEEP MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SITUATION WHERE DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE MAIN PCPN THAT IS
OCCURRING BY THURSDAY AFTN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE HELD
DOWN OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WARMER AIR BLO H85 WORKING
IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM THINKING AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH WILL NEED AN ADVY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND
UKMET ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SHIFTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL NEED TO PIN THIS DOWN FURTHER.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LEANED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WAS ALSO
PREFERRED BY HPC.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS WAS
ON THE HIGHER IMPACT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WEATHER. PROBABLY JUST AS
WELL TO AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY ON SPECIFICS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
ONE TREND THAT WAS ACTED UPON WAS TO GO WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPR LAKES A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SHUNTING PRECIP WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ALONG PRIMARY H85
MOISTURE AXIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTH CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THUS DROPPED POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY
CHILLY THOUGH WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH AS NE WINDS
FLOW OFF THE ICY WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE COULD BE MID CLOUDS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR SATURDAY/EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH TRENDING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PTYPE
WOULD MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY RETREATS. GFS NOT AS EXCITED
ON THE OVERALL PCPN CHANCES. FORECAST CAME OUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WORKS FOR NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR SURE. TEMPS INDICATE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...BUT COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST IF ANY OF
THESE DAYS ENDS UP DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL BE PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS THIS
MRNG AND AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LK EFFECT SHSN...DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREDOMINATE. BEST CHC FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX AND
IWD WITH A MORE UPSLOPE NNW FLOW...BUT INCLUDED ONLY TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE FIRST 6 HRS NOW. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO
CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
SLOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 830 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Band of snow has effectively left our CWA leaving behind a region
of drizzle in its wake, now primarily confined to parts of
southwest IL. The clearing line has made it almost to
Jacksonville, IL, just passed thru Bowling Green, MO and near
Rolla, MO. At its current rate, the skies are expected to clear
for nearly the entire CWA by 06z, just in time for the start of a
total lunar eclipse. Diurnal cloudiness driving southeast from IA
is expected to further break up and dissipate over the next few
hours.
Temps continue to be on track with current forecast, supporting
continuation of Freeze Warnings with widespread mins in the mid to
upper 20s. Note that our forecast will either set or approach
current record low temps. See CLIMATE section below.
TES
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Main concerns deal with the band of snow currently extending from
near Pittsfield to Rolla as well as the going freeze warning. The
band has been reducing visibilities to as low as 1/2 mile with
some reports of accumulation on grassy surfaces. It is being
caused by mid level frontogenesis ahead of the 500mb trough that
will move through the area tonight. The RAP and HRRR does show the
frotogenesis weakening as it moves acrosss the CWA, but do think
that it will likely maintain itself the next few hours before it
weakens by early evening. Have extrapolated the band through CWA
through early evening, with little or no accumulation of snow
expected given the warm low level and surface temperatures.
The precipitation and clouds will clear out quick as subsidence
moves in behind the passage of the upper trough. With cold air
advection and dry dewpoints, expect temperatures to drop quickly to
near MOS temperatures. Going freeze warning looks good and plan no
changes to it.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Have kept Tuesday into Thursday dry as the area will remain cut off
from any notable moisture from the Gulf and the active storm track
stays north of the area. While Tuesday night will not be as cold as
tonight, most areas will still be in the lower to mid 30s for
lows.
(Thursday Night-Next Monday)
The ECMWF and GFS are now similar with the amplitude and timing of
the mid level trough and attendant cold front that will move across
the area on Friday. Will continue with the chance of showers on
Thursday night and Friday before subsidence works in behind the
trough keeping Friday night and Saturday dry. Then confidence
begins to wane late in the weekend as they both develop QPF over the
area. The GFS is placing more emphasis on an northern stream upper
over the Upper Midwest while ECMWF is placing it`s emphasis on a
shortwave coming out of the southwest CONUS. Either way, will
continue the chance of showers we have going Saturday night into
Sunday night. Temperatures during the period look to be near or
slightly below normal.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014
Skies have cleared out of taf sites, so clear skies and northwest
winds to persist overnight. Will see some diurnal cu develop by
midday on Tuesday with winds gradually backing to the southwest
then south as surface ridge moves to the east.
Specifics for KSTL:
Skies have cleared out of taf sites, so clear skies and northwest
winds to persist overnight. Will see some diurnal cu develop by
18z Tuesday with winds gradually backing to the southwest then
south by 01z Wednesday as surface ridge moves to the east.
Byrd
&&
.CLIMATE:
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
404 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT WITH A BRIEF CHANGE
TO SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH MILDER WEATHER
RETURNING BY LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE PLAIN WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
GET A LINE OF SHOWERS GOING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE PICKED UP BUT
SOME IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED NORTH OF PENN YAN. TEMPS
DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH BUT THEN THIS
SHOULD LEVEL OUT. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS
LINE TO THE WEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS
THE SUNSETS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PAST MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET. DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
IS STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BACK TO THE WEST
AROUND DTW. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS HARDLY INDICATING ANY CAPE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM... BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 55 TO 60... MORE
SEASONABLE FOR JUNE THAN MID-APRIL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RIGHT-REAR QUAD
UPPER DYNAMICS AND A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER RIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
MIDDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY... THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FINGER LAKES... AROUND NOON ALONG THE
I-81 CORRIDOR... AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ANY BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS DURING A SHORT PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT... BUT A WATCH MAY NEED CONSIDERATION
ONCE TIMING AN LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAIN BANDS BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER
THE FINGER LAKES BY LATE MORNING... AND ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STEADIER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -15 DEGREES C. DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR EXPECT THAT THIS SCEANRIO WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER CENTRAL NY TUESDAY EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WX IN THE MED RNG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN ON
WED. AFTER SOME MRNG LAKE CLDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE CST. WE COULD SEE CLDS RETURN IN THE SELY FLOW LATER FRI
NGT INTO SAT. THIS WEEKEND`S FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HINGING ON
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM S/WV`S. JUST WENT WITH
SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL ON WED...A MODERATING TREND
AFTERWARDS AND WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHRA WERE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE SHARP COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BETWEEN 11Z AND
19Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST OF THESE SHRA WILL BE VFR WITH PATCHY
AREAS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHRA. THE COLD FRONT W/ A SHARP WIND
SHIFT FROM S TO NW REACHES SYR-PEO BY 12Z TO 13Z...UCA-ELM BY
14Z...KITH BY 15Z...KBGM BY 16Z...AND KAVP BY 19Z. FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR WITH RA AND
BR...THEN THE PRECIP WILL BECOME A MIX OF SNOW/PL AND RAIN WITH A
VERY SHARP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE CUD BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT THE POINT IN THE INVERSION LAYER WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. THUS
LLWS REMAINS IN ALL TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD AIR LAYER DEEPENS VERTICALLY THE SHEAR WILL
LESSEN TWD EVE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS DEEPENING COLD LAYER...THE
PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW. I EXPECT MAINLY IFR CIG AND VSBY IN
SNOW AND BR FOR A FEW HOURS. THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIG AND VSBY IN -SHSN MOSTLY AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SE ARND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
KNOTS...THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER FROPA AN AVERAGE
10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR MORE. WINDS CUD GET EVEN
STRONGER TWD 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...SCT MVFR IN -SHSN CNTRL NY.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AT THIS TIME LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE FOR 1.5
INCHES TO 1.75 INCHES MAINLY EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND LESS
THAN 1.5 INCHES TO THE WEST. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
TAIL OF END OF THIS PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. OF CONCERN IS THAT A LOT OF THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A FAIRLY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SOME FLOOD ISSUES
ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND ESPECIALLY URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE WE ARE WATCHING THE WEST CANADA
CREEK CLOSELY. THE WEST CANADA CREEK WAS AT 1226.26 FEET AS OF 245
AM EDT AND STILL RISING AT A STEADY CLIP. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS CREEK AS PER NWS ALY. LATEST NERFC FORECAST
GUIDANCE BRINGS IT 1228 FEET WHICH IS AT THE MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL.
IN ADDTN THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALLER
STREAMS IN ONEIDA COUNTY TO SPILL THEIR BANKS LATER TODAY AS AN
ADDITIONAL 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONCERNED
ABT THE SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AS WELL. FOR
NOW THE ONEIDA CREEK AT ONEIDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD BUT IF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN (MORE THAN 2 INCHES) FALLS IN THAT
WATERSHED...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SAQUOIT CREEK AND
ORISKANY CREEKS ALSO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FLOOD IF ENOUGH
RAIN FALLS IN THESE SMALLER WATERSHEDS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
ONEIDA COUNTY IS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.5 INCHES IN A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE HARD TO COME BY...EXCEPT LOCALLY.
SO A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONT FOR ONEIDA COUNTY TO COVER THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD ISSUES UP THERE.
FARTHER SOUTH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS
SHOW NO RIVER FLOODING...EVEN IN THE HEADWATERS. HEADWATER FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS IS RUNNING AOA 2 INCHES IN 3 TO 6 HOURS
EXCEPT AT SHERBURNE WHERE IT IS CLOSER TO 1 INCHES FOR MINOR
FLOODING AND 1.5 INCHES FOR MODERATE FLOODING. THIS POINT WILL
BEARS WATCHING AND IS AN OUTLIER AMONG ALL OTHER HEADWATER FORECAST
POINTS. A FEW HEADWATER POINTS CUD SEE MINOR FLOODING WITH 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS BUT MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
OVER 2 INCHES. SO AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS
OFFICES DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE AN FFA JUST YET. IF A BAND OF HEAVY
DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AND HAS 1 INCH PER HOUR OR 2 INCH PER
3 HOUR RAINFALL RATES THE DAY SHIFT CAN ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS NECESSARY. WE WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING OUTSIDE OUR FLOOD WATCH AREA AND HIT
THE URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE HARDEST.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ009-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN
HYDROLOGY...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD... THE MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE PLAIN WERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
GET A LINE OF SHOWERS GOING WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH. NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE PICKED UP BUT
SOME IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS REPORTED NORTH OF PENN YAN. TEMPS
DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH BUT THEN THIS
SHOULD LEVEL OUT. THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS
LINE TO THE WEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. TO THE EAST THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS
THE SUNSETS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PAST MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD
BRINGING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A LIKELY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AND
SLEET. DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
IS STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BACK TO THE WEST
AROUND DTW. THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LATEST RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS HARDLY INDICATING ANY CAPE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM... BEFORE RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 55 TO 60... MORE
SEASONABLE FOR JUNE THAN MID-APRIL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RIGHT-REAR QUAD
UPPER DYNAMICS AND A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER RIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
MIDDAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY... THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FINGER LAKES... AROUND NOON ALONG THE
I-81 CORRIDOR... AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ANY BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS DURING A SHORT PERIOD. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT... BUT A WATCH MAY NEED CONSIDERATION
ONCE TIMING AN LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAIN BANDS BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET OR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW OVER
THE FINGER LAKES BY LATE MORNING... AND ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
STEADIER SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -15 DEGREES C. DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR EXPECT THAT THIS SCEANRIO WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER CENTRAL NY TUESDAY EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WX IN THE MED RNG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN ON
WED. AFTER SOME MRNG LAKE CLDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE CST. WE COULD SEE CLDS RETURN IN THE SELY FLOW LATER FRI
NGT INTO SAT. THIS WEEKEND`S FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HINGING ON
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM S/WV`S. JUST WENT WITH
SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PD.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL ON WED...A MODERATING TREND
AFTERWARDS AND WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHRA WERE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE SHARP COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BETWEEN 11Z AND
19Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST OF THESE SHRA WILL BE VFR WITH PATCHY
AREAS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHRA. THE COLD FRONT W/ A SHARP WIND
SHIFT FROM S TO NW REACHES SYR-PEO BY 12Z TO 13Z...UCA-ELM BY
14Z...KITH BY 15Z...KBGM BY 16Z...AND KAVP BY 19Z. FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR WITH RA AND
BR...THEN THE PRECIP WILL BECOME A MIX OF SNOW/PL AND RAIN WITH A
VERY SHARP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THERE CUD BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT THE POINT IN THE INVERSION LAYER WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. THUS
LLWS REMAINS IN ALL TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD AIR LAYER DEEPENS VERTICALLY THE SHEAR WILL
LESSEN TWD EVE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS DEEPENING COLD LAYER...THE
PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW. I EXPECT MAINLY IFR CIG AND VSBY IN
SNOW AND BR FOR A FEW HOURS. THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIG AND VSBY IN -SHSN MOSTLY AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SE ARND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20
KNOTS...THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER FROPA AN AVERAGE
10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR MORE. WINDS CUD GET EVEN
STRONGER TWD 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT...SCT MVFR IN -SHSN CNTRL NY.
WED-THU-FRI...VFR.
FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ009-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
438 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...STRONG...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD
OF A ROBUST LONG WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIFTING N OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...WITH MORE
ISOL SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER TO THE WEST...AN
AREA OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO THE
WESTERN NC PIEDMONT. HRRR KEEPS THESE STORMS WEST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MESO MODELS LIFT AN AREA OF DIFF VORT
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK AND ENHANCE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC. INSTABILITY INCREASES AFTER DAYBREAK
AS WELL BRINGING INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS HAVE LI`S
INCREASING TO AROUND -2 TO -4 C AND CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-60 KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SHEAR IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING ASSOC WITH STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING. STRONG SLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25-35 MPH. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE OBX AND CARTERET CO TO 4 PM AS MODELS SHOWING SLY WINDS
INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY
MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP SHORT
THERMOMETER WITH HIGH EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH AN ON-GOING SEVERE THREAT ASSOC WITH STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY ENDING AFTER FROPA. STRONG CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING NLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH INLAND TO
25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST ALONG THE OBX AND WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AREAS AS
WELL...SEE BELOW FOR DISCUSSION. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUE...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND EXITING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING
THURSDAY AS ECMWF SPINS UP A LOW OFFSHORE AND GFSENSEMBLE MAINTAINS
A TROUGH. THIS COULD EFFECT SURFACE WIND SPEED ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED IN ECMWF. DIFFERENCES
BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF DROPS A DEEP TROUGH
INTO FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS NOTES A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. THIS AGAIN
AFFECTS THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND GFS KEEPING AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE. CURRENT GFS IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT DEEPER WITH WEEKEND
TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUN.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SATURDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...ACCORDING TO ECMWF. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD...WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID
AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS ACROSS RTES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY. STRONG SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT TODAY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO
RTES BRINGING STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CONDITIONS AOB IFR. WINDS BECOME NLY
AFTER FROPA WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND
30 KT DURING EVENING...BUT WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WIND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY...STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MODELS TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT MAY SEE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...MARINE OBS SHOWING SLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT MOST AREAS...BUT UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE
ONSLOW BAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11
FT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
WITH BETTER MIXING HERE AND MOVED START TIME OF THE GALE WARNING
TO 18Z HERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG NLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE DEVELOPING MOST AREAS...LIKELY
JUST BELOW GALE FOR THE PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVER ZONES. SEAS BUILD
TO 10-15 FT NRN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 6-10 FT
SOUTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 236 AM TUE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE SPEEDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
STATE. GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20 KN RANGE THURSDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OFFSHORE DETERMINING SPEEDS
OVER THE WATERS. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 15 TO 20 KTS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECT AS A STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING
OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3
FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO
THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. CERA
WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN 1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL
IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS AND WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NCZ095-103-104.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ130-131-135-150.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
303 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...
WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.
GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS
FORECAST A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
INSTABILITY. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB
JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND
6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1... MUCAPE THAT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH VALUES
FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-
50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO
BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE
-2C TO -4C...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-
300 M2/S2...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
254 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...
WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.
GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS
FORECAST A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
INSTABILITY. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB
JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND
6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1... MUCAPE THAT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH VALUES
FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-
50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO
BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE
-2C TO -4C...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-
300 M2/S2...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL SEEN ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE ATTM DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE OFF EVENING SOUNDINGS. MODELS REMAIN OVERDONE
WITH DEGREE OF LIFT UNDER PASSING SHORTWAVES WELL AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW REMAINS MORE SW AND
FORCING WEAK. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON LIGHTER SHRA
FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE THE FLOW DEEPENS/BACKS AND BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT KICKS IN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY JET ESPCLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY REBOUND TO CATEGORICAL MOST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT AS BANDS OF SHRA BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AS WEAK INSTABILITY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS
LATE. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND FIELDS INCLUDED A LOW
TOPPED TSRA MENTION ESPCLY FAR WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND
DAWN AND OUT EAST FOR LOW TOPPED BANDS LATE AS WELL. BUMPED UP
LOWS A LITTLE OUT WEST AS EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE JUST SLOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP MOST TEMP FALLS FROM OCCURRING UNTIL THE MORNING. OTRW A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WINDS AND LOW TOPPED SHRA THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING TUESDAY WITH
STRONG ENOUGH GUSTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ADVISORY BLUE RIDGE
SECTIONS WITH POSSIBLE BANDED SHRA OUT EAST DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO
GIVE THE MIDSHIFT ANOTHER LOOK RATHER THAN HOISTING A WIND
ADVISORY TONIGHT AS MAY BE CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE SW
FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTRW MADE SOME ADJUSTS TO TIMING
OF THE HEAVIER SHRA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHOWERS STARTING TO ENTER THE WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS AND
LATEST LOCAL HIGH-RES FAVOR SLOWER TIMING TO THE EAST THRU
DUSK...BUT BY MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS AS SERIES OF UPPER VORTS MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES INTO VA. APPEARS THUNDER THREAT WILL STAY
ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN INSTABILITY IS WEAK. GOOD JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS FRONT
APPROACHES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT EASING THE FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z-15Z TUESDAY AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FRONT MOVING THROUGH APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT
AROUND THE BACKSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY JET TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN WELL
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RUSH OF COLDER AIR WORKS IN ABOUT 2-4 HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT CHANGING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN WARMER GROUND THE SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE RIDGETOPS ABOVE 3000 FT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED FLOODING GIVEN WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING...ALTHOUGH SPEED OF
FRONT MAY HINDER IT SOME. STILL QPF LOOKING ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER SEEMS LIKELY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. EVEN THE RIVER ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE NOT TAKING ANY RIVER STAGES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN THOUGH...GIVEN AMOUNTS SEEM
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK.
THE OTHER ISSUE SHOULD BE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS 6 HR PRESSURE
RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 12 MB ARE EXPECTED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
UP IN WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT
AREAS. WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE RUN OF THE MODELS AS CLOUD COVER WILL
TEMPER SOME OF THE GUSTS ABOVE INVERSION. HWO WILL MENTION WIND
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
AS FOR TEMPS WILL BE SEEING SLOW FALLING AT BEST OVERNIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW...WITH SHOWERS HELPING TO COOL IT SOME.
TOMORROW WILL BE MILD IN THE FAR EAST BUT TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY DUSK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...
H85 TEMPS PLUNGE BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARING
-12C PER THE GFS. MOISTURE DRIES OUT RATHER QUICKLY ALOFT...BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN HOUR OR TWO OF UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER WHERE A QUICK HALF INCH OR LESS
MAY FALL ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY FALL FOR A
BRIEF TIME DOWN TO BLUEFIELD...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY....WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE...AND H85 JET
NEAR 50KTS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NW
NC/EXTREME SW VA AT THE VERY LEAST. POSSIBLY A SMALL WINDOW
TUESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS NW NC. 1030MB HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS QUICKLY...AND MOS GUIDANCE IS
SOLIDLY AT OR BELOW 32F FOR LOWS WED MORNING EVEN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE. BECAUSE OF THIS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND
SOMETIMES LOWS COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THIS SETUP. THUS
THE CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE MAY BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...SOUTHSIDE/NC PIEDMONT. MUCH BETTER CHANCE NORTH
OF THIS REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS IS PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY SUNNY DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED. WITH LESS
WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS WED PM...CONDS
MAY BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE...WITH
ANOTHER WATCH NECESSARY WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST...AND
WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY DEPARTS THIS WEEKEND. WITH A
RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...QUESTIONABLE IF THIS MIDWEST
TROUGH PRODUCES ANY PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. OP GFS IS FAR MORE WET THAN THE
ECMWF. THUS...POPS WERE KEPT RATHER LOW. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW TAKES
SHAPE BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UNEVENTFUL AND
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH...IMPROVING CIGS TO VFR AFT 18Z PIEDMONT...BUT WITH
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND -SHRA OR EVEN POSSIBLY
-SHSN EASTERN WV TAF SITES. BCB WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH EVENING. MVFR VSBYS MAY CONTINUE AT BLF FOR A
WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL OTHER SITES BY 20Z. WINDS WILL BE ONE OF THE GREATEST
CONCERNS THIS TAF VALID CYCLE...MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A GENERAL INCREASE OF SSE-SSW WINDS OF 10-20KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WNW-NW 15-20KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-40KTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL ONLY BE FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN DIMINISHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFT 02Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ROA/LYH/DAN AND LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR -SHSN AT BLF/LWB THROUGH TAF VALIDP PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR WITH THIS SCENARIO CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TO THE NW. THIS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS
SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OTRW VFR ELSW TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.UPDATE...
SOMEWHAT OF A FORECAST DILEMMA THIS MORNING CONCERNING THE CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF SUN IS OCCURRING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING
TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, HEREIN LIES THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES
TO SHOW A QUITE STABLE LAYER OF AIR WITH THE BASE AT ABOUT 10K AND
EXTENDING UPWARDS TO ABOUT 15K. THIS IS GOING TO BE A INHIBITING
FACTOR WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVING A TOUGH TIME BREAKING
THROUGH THIS STABLE CAP. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SUFFICIENT HEATING
THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE AND MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY 2-3 PM EDT THIS COULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY BUOYANCY TO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM COMPUTER MODELS DO SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN
THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. STILL, THE HRRR WHICH IS VERY
RELIABLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COASTAL AREA. THE FORTUNATE ASPECT OF
THE HRRR IS THAT IT UPDATES EVERY HOUR SO WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE
LOOK AT ITS SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY NEED TO
SCALE BACK POPS AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL BE FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
AROUND 90 ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
SOUTH LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE PERHAPS BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO MORNING
PACKAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN BE WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. SO THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTER WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
LOOKS DRY NOW. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
A FEW SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF AND KPBI. DUE TO
LOW TS RISK...FEEL VCSH IS SUFFICIENT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST
PREVALENT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST.
MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL
WORKING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD GET TO 7 FEET IN PALM
BEACH WATERS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS.
CLIMATE...
THE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE WHICH ARE:
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIA 90 93 - 1975
FLL 90 93 - 2001
PBI 90 93 - 1999
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
ERN TX. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD
-SHSN TO NEAR IWD WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MANTIOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO WAS SLIDING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...NRLY FLOW PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDINGD FROM MANTIOBA
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE ERN LAKES INTO SRN
QUEBEC. THE NORTH WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C SUPPORTED
SOME LIGHT LES TO NEAR P53 DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE
ERN LAKE.
TODAY...THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES
TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LES
THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. SOME ISOLD -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN
LAKE SHRTWV ARE EXPECTED SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS MORNING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8-9C/KM WITH 850/700 MB
TEMPS OF -17C/-27C WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
WEST AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING
TO AROUND A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP OF 27 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI
DIMINISH...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 8F TO 15F RANGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY CLIMB LATE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAA
LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FEATURE OF
INTEREST THAT HELPS TO FOCUS SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SHIELD OF
SNOW VCNTY OF CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY TREND IN MODELS IT IS FOR A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF QPF/SNOW INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 12Z-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. TREND IS NOTHING TOO DRASTIC THOUGH...SO CHANGES TO THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TO UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED ON
290K SFC /H775-H650/ AND 285K SFC /H8-H7/ SURGES SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 15Z-03Z...THOUGH GFS/NAM REMAIN QUICKER
WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE MAINLY SNOW FOR
CWA. H7 MIXING RATIOS IN 2.5-2.75G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW
AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES. SUPPOSE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE
HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN SOME INSOLATION
COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS.
THUS OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW COULD BE MITIGATED SOME
COMPARED TO IF THE SNOW ARRIVED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ULTIMATELY IT ALL DEPENDS ON SNOWFALL RATES...WITH HIGHER RATES
ALLOWING FOR SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON THE PRIMARY ROADS.
NAM QPF STILL APPEARS OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN
MIXING RATIOS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT AREAS OVER MAINLY WESTERN TIER OF
CWA WILL SEE HIGHER QPF/SNOW DUE TO INCREASING AND FAIRLY ROBUST
H8-H7 FGEN AND STRONG FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FAR WEST TOWARD KEWEENAW
SEEMS IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING
WHICH COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH INSTABILITY AS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IS
PRESENT ATOP THE FGEN. NET RESULT IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CWA.
EVEN TRENDING AWAY FM THE NAM 1 INCH PLUS QPF AMOUNTS...BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS WILL SEE 0.8 INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SREF PROBS SHOWING OVER 70 PCT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH BUT NOT EVEN REACHING 10 PCT PROBS OF SEEING 1
INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW BULK OF LIFT OCCURRING IN THE
DGZ UP OVER 10KFT AGL. LIFT BLO THIS LAYER IN TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C
WILL LOWER SLR/S SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS CENTERED IN THE 12:1
RANGE...A BIT HIGHER IN THE FGEN AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS BLO 5KFT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS DECENT LIKLIHOOD OF SEEING TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES OVER WEST VCNTY OF PERSISTENT FGEN FORCING...BUT
PROBABLY MORE IN THE 7 TO 10 RANGE FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL CWA.
SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE CNTRL CWA...COORD WITH GRB
AND DLH AND WILL BE LEAVING WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS ATTM.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES INDICATE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE GENERALLY SNOW. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS SOUTH
OF LINE FM KIMT TO KERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ONLY
RAIN REMAINS AT KMNM AS WBZERO HEIGHT INCREASE OVER 2000FT AGL. MAY
SEE MORE AREAS CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S...BUT HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH
OF CWA BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXITING DEEP MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SITUATION WHERE DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE MAIN PCPN THAT IS
OCCURRING BY THURSDAY AFTN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE HELD
DOWN OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WARMER AIR BLO H85 WORKING
IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM THINKING AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH WILL NEED AN ADVY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND
UKMET ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SHIFTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL NEED TO PIN THIS DOWN FURTHER.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LEANED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WAS ALSO
PREFERRED BY HPC.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS WAS
ON THE HIGHER IMPACT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WEATHER. PROBABLY JUST AS
WELL TO AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY ON SPECIFICS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
ONE TREND THAT WAS ACTED UPON WAS TO GO WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPR LAKES A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SHUNTING PRECIP WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ALONG PRIMARY H85
MOISTURE AXIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTH CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THUS DROPPED POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY
CHILLY THOUGH WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH AS NE WINDS
FLOW OFF THE ICY WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE COULD BE MID CLOUDS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR SATURDAY/EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH TRENDING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PTYPE
WOULD MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY RETREATS. GFS NOT AS EXCITED
ON THE OVERALL PCPN CHANCES. FORECAST CAME OUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WORKS FOR NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR SURE. TEMPS INDICATE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...BUT COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST IF ANY OF
THESE DAYS ENDS UP DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD LIGHT NNW
FLOW OVER PARTIAL OPEN WATERS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCT -SHSN THIS MORNING WITH OCNL CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AT IWD/CMX. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL -SHSN WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS NEAR INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO
CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
SLOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...
HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...APPROACHING KRWI...AND MOVING
OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH THE BREAK IN THE
PRECIP THIS MORNING AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...CONDITIONS HAVE/SHOULD
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE(D) BACK TO VFR/MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VISBYS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 12Z...
EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DIE OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1153 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE PIEDMONT AROUND MID DAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON THE RAPID COOL-OFF OVER THE NC
MTNS...AS WELL AS UPSTREAM SNOW REPORTS...I NOW HAVE SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND THE NRN NC
MTNS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. NO CHANGE ON THE
THINKING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH HEATING FOR
A SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE CONVECTION GETS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
THE SFC COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP AS A RADAR FINE LINE...AND HAS NOW
MOVED INTO THE WRN UPSTATE...AND ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS OF 905 AM EDT MONDAY...LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK THUNDER CHANCES
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SPC HAS CUT THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FROM OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THE LOW OVERCAST THAT IS NOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT WHAT WAS ALREADY
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED HEATING. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...I STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
FEW TSTMS. THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE THIS. SO I DID
KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY.
I/M GOING TO START THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EFFECTIVE
IMMEDIATELY. THE NAM AVL BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY 10 DEG C
TEMP DROP FROM 14 TO 15 UTC. THAT KIND OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING SOME GOOD GUSTS TO THE MTNS.
AS OF 7 AM...SHRA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THRU THE DAY. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE CLT AREA AROUND 18Z
WITH FROPA. HAVE KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA THE LONGEST TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WAVE DOES DEVELOP...SVR STORM CHC WILL
DEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AND HELICITY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WHAT THERE IS WILL BE OVER
THAT AREA. UPDATED TO COVER THESE CONCERNS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 320 AM...WIDESPREAD SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT
TSRA ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AFTER
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WAVE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION WHERE
TSRA ARE CURRENTLY. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...A SWIRL IS SEEN MOVING THIS WAY...AND WOULD
REACH THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP CAT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THRU 12Z...THEN TAPER OFF POP
FROM SW TO NE THRU THE MORNING...WITH LINGERING CAT POP OVER THE
I-77 CORRIDOR THRU 18Z. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA ACROSS THE
ARE WITH BEST CHC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WITH THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY LINEAR STORM
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THAT SAID...BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWFA. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STREAM
LEVELS. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND COULD BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY MORE URBANIZED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHUD
REACH ADVISORY CRITERION ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM THRU
MIDNIGHT.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE NW FLOW AND CAA COULD LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW WOULD BE LIGHT WITH NO
ACCUMS. ELSEHWERE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN...AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHICH HAVE NOT REACHED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON YET. LOWS WILL BE 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND WILL THREATEN RECORDS AT AVL AND CLT. THE
RECORD AT GSP IS QUITE COLD AND SHOULD BE SAFE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID APPALACHIANS AROUND
SUNRISE. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 0Z THURSDAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG INSOLATION
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WARMING...BUT LLVL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON MIXING MAY REACH AROUND 3
KFT...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.20 INCHES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MAY MIX
TO THE TEENS...RESULTING IN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE CWFA. LIGHT NE WINDS AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM U20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPSTATE
AND NE GA MAY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ON THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2-4 DEGREES FROM
WED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AROUND 3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN VALUES OBSERVED ON WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A H5
TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. COVERAGE OF QPF ACROSS THE CWFA REMAINS VERY
LIMITED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS
FOR SHRA BETWEEN FRI TO SAT. SUN...MID LEVEL SHALLOW RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WEAK WAA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES. ON MON...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MON
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SHRA. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT AT THIS
TIME. THE CHC FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE AROUND 18Z NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA. HAVE MADE THE WIND SHIFT TO NW AT THAT TIME AS WELL. GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES THRU THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
THRU MUCH OF THE NITE WITH WINDS TURNING NLY AND GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT EARLIER
ONSET...FROPA AND IMPROVEMENT. TSRA CHC MUCH LESS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALL
LOCATIONS AS WELL. KAND WILL SEE MORE WLY WIND THAN NW. KAVL MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING LOW VFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16...
AVL...26 IN 1943
CLT...29 IN 2008
GSP...24 IN 1907
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY/RWH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE PIEDMONT AROUND MID DAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
THE SFC COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP AS A RADAR FINE LINE...AND HAS NOW
MOVED INTO THE WRN UPSTATE...AND ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS OF 905 AM EDT MONDAY...LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK THUNDER CHANCES
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SPC HAS CUT THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FROM OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THE LOW OVERCAST THAT IS NOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT WHAT WAS ALREADY
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED HEATING. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...I STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
FEW TSTMS. THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE THIS. SO I DID
KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY.
I/M GOING TO START THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EFFECTIVE
IMMEDIATELY. THE NAM AVL BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY 10 DEG C
TEMP DROP FROM 14 TO 15 UTC. THAT KIND OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING SOME GOOD GUSTS TO THE MTNS.
AS OF 7 AM...SHRA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THRU THE DAY. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE CLT AREA AROUND 18Z
WITH FROPA. HAVE KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA THE LONGEST TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WAVE DOES DEVELOP...SVR STORM CHC WILL
DEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AND HELICITY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WHAT THERE IS WILL BE OVER
THAT AREA. UPDATED TO COVER THESE CONCERNS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 320 AM...WIDESPREAD SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT
TSRA ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AFTER
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WAVE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION WHERE
TSRA ARE CURRENTLY. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...A SWIRL IS SEEN MOVING THIS WAY...AND WOULD
REACH THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP CAT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THRU 12Z...THEN TAPER OFF POP
FROM SW TO NE THRU THE MORNING...WITH LINGERING CAT POP OVER THE
I-77 CORRIDOR THRU 18Z. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA ACROSS THE
ARE WITH BEST CHC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WITH THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY LINEAR STORM
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THAT SAID...BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWFA. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STREAM
LEVELS. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND COULD BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY MORE URBANIZED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHUD
REACH ADVISORY CRITERION ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM THRU
MIDNIGHT.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE NW FLOW AND CAA COULD LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW WOULD BE LIGHT WITH NO
ACCUMS. ELSEHWERE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN...AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHICH HAVE NOT REACHED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON YET. LOWS WILL BE 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND WILL THREATEN RECORDS AT AVL AND CLT. THE
RECORD AT GSP IS QUITE COLD AND SHOULD BE SAFE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID APPALACHIANS AROUND
SUNRISE. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 0Z THURSDAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG INSOLATION
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WARMING...BUT LLVL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON MIXING MAY REACH AROUND 3
KFT...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.20 INCHES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MAY MIX
TO THE TEENS...RESULTING IN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE CWFA. LIGHT NE WINDS AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM U20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPSTATE
AND NE GA MAY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ON THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2-4 DEGREES FROM
WED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AROUND 3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN VALUES OBSERVED ON WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A H5
TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. COVERAGE OF QPF ACROSS THE CWFA REMAINS VERY
LIMITED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS
FOR SHRA BETWEEN FRI TO SAT. SUN...MID LEVEL SHALLOW RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WEAK WAA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES. ON MON...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MON
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SHRA. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT AT THIS
TIME. THE CHC FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE AROUND 18Z NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA. HAVE MADE THE WIND SHIFT TO NW AT THAT TIME AS WELL. GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES THRU THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
THRU MUCH OF THE NITE WITH WINDS TURNING NLY AND GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT EARLIER
ONSET...FROPA AND IMPROVEMENT. TSRA CHC MUCH LESS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALL
LOCATIONS AS WELL. KAND WILL SEE MORE WLY WIND THAN NW. KAVL MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING LOW VFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 89% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16...
AVL...26 IN 1943
CLT...29 IN 2008
GSP...24 IN 1907
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY/RWH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
912 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE PIEDMONT AROUND MID DAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT MONDAY...LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK THUNDER CHANCES
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SPC HAS CUT THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FROM OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THE LOW OVERCAST THAT IS NOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT WHAT WAS ALREADY
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED HEATING. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...I STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
FEW TSTMS. THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE THIS. SO I DID
KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY.
I/M GOING TO START THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EFFECTIVE
IMMEDIATELY. THE NAM AVL BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY 10 DEG C
TEMP DROP FROM 14 TO 15 UTC. THAT KIND OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING SOME GOOD GUSTS TO THE MTNS.
AS OF 7 AM...SHRA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THRU THE DAY. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE CLT AREA AROUND 18Z
WITH FROPA. HAVE KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA THE LONGEST TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WAVE DOES DEVELOP...SVR STORM CHC WILL
DEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AND HELICITY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WHAT THERE IS WILL BE OVER
THAT AREA. UPDATED TO COVER THESE CONCERNS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 320 AM...WIDESPREAD SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT
TSRA ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AFTER
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WAVE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION WHERE
TSRA ARE CURRENTLY. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...A SWIRL IS SEEN MOVING THIS WAY...AND WOULD
REACH THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP CAT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THRU 12Z...THEN TAPER OFF POP
FROM SW TO NE THRU THE MORNING...WITH LINGERING CAT POP OVER THE
I-77 CORRIDOR THRU 18Z. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA ACROSS THE
ARE WITH BEST CHC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WITH THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY LINEAR STORM
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THAT SAID...BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWFA. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STREAM
LEVELS. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND COULD BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY MORE URBANIZED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHUD
REACH ADVISORY CRITERION ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM THRU
MIDNIGHT.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE NW FLOW AND CAA COULD LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW WOULD BE LIGHT WITH NO
ACCUMS. ELSEHWERE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN...AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHICH HAVE NOT REACHED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON YET. LOWS WILL BE 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND WILL THREATEN RECORDS AT AVL AND CLT. THE
RECORD AT GSP IS QUITE COLD AND SHOULD BE SAFE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID APPALACHIANS AROUND
SUNRISE. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 0Z THURSDAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG INSOLATION
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WARMING...BUT LLVL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL. A BLEND OF PREFERRED MOS
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON MIXING MAY REACH AROUND 3
KFT...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.20 INCHES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MAY MIX
TO THE TEENS...RESULTING IN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE CWFA. LIGHT NE WINDS AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM U20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPSTATE
AND NE GA MAY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ON THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT H85 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2-4 DEGREES FROM
WED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AROUND 3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN VALUES OBSERVED ON WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A H5
TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. COVERAGE OF QPF ACROSS THE CWFA REMAINS VERY
LIMITED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS
FOR SHRA BETWEEN FRI TO SAT. SUN...MID LEVEL SHALLOW RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WEAK WAA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES. ON MON...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MON
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SHRA. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT AT THIS
TIME. THE CHC FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE AROUND 18Z NEAR THE TIME OF
FROPA. HAVE MADE THE WIND SHIFT TO NW AT THAT TIME AS WELL. GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES THRU THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
THRU MUCH OF THE NITE WITH WINDS TURNING NLY AND GUSTS DIMINISHING
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT EARLIER
ONSET...FROPA AND IMPROVEMENT. TSRA CHC MUCH LESS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALL
LOCATIONS AS WELL. KAND WILL SEE MORE WLY WIND THAN NW. KAVL MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING LOW VFR CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 85% HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16...
AVL...26 IN 1943
CLT...29 IN 2008
GSP...24 IN 1907
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY/RWH
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
133 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.AVIATION...
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL APPEARS ISOLATED/SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL FORM DURING MID/LATE- AFTERNOON HOURS. VCSH
CONTINUED IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BUT LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS PLAUSIBLE IN/NEAR CONVECTION.
THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT PROB IS QUITE LOW. SSE WINDS OF
15-25 KTS WILL BECOME SSW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MODELS INDICATED LOW
STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM NORTH AND HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA INTO
AFTERNOON. ELECTED TO NOT GO AGGRESSIVE THIS FAR OUT...BUT BKN035
INTRODUCED BEGINNING ROUGHLY AT SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014/
UPDATE...
SOMEWHAT OF A FORECAST DILEMMA THIS MORNING CONCERNING THE CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF SUN IS OCCURRING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING
TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, HEREIN LIES THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES
TO SHOW A QUITE STABLE LAYER OF AIR WITH THE BASE AT ABOUT 10K AND
EXTENDING UPWARDS TO ABOUT 15K. THIS IS GOING TO BE A INHIBITING
FACTOR WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVING A TOUGH TIME BREAKING
THROUGH THIS STABLE CAP. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SUFFICIENT HEATING
THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE AND MAXIMUM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY 2-3 PM EDT THIS COULD PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY BUOYANCY TO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM COMPUTER MODELS DO SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN
THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. STILL, THE HRRR WHICH IS VERY
RELIABLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ONLY SHOWS ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COASTAL AREA. THE FORTUNATE ASPECT OF
THE HRRR IS THAT IT UPDATES EVERY HOUR SO WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE
LOOK AT ITS SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY NEED TO
SCALE BACK POPS AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...
ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE PERHAPS BETTER
CONVERGENCE WILL BE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO MORNING
PACKAGE.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN BE WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. SO THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTER WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
LOOKS DRY NOW. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
A FEW SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL
WORKING INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD GET TO 7 FEET IN PALM
BEACH WATERS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS.
CLIMATE...
THE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE WHICH ARE:
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIA 90 93 - 1975
FLL 90 93 - 2001
PBI 90 93 - 1999
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 80 71 84 / 30 30 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 81 74 85 / 30 30 30 30
MIAMI 71 82 73 85 / 30 30 30 40
NAPLES 67 84 68 88 / 20 20 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
634 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVING ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC ERLY THIS EVE WITH
A NRLY SOLID BAND OF MDT-HVY SHWRS/TSTRMS ALONG IT. HAVING TO HAND
EDIT THE TEMP/DP TEMP GRID AS MODELS NOT HANDLING THE 20+ DEGREE
TMP DROP IN 1 HOUR BEHIND THE FROPA THAT WELL. ADJUSTED GRIDS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS NEXT
1-3 HRS AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THIS SYSTM EVEN
BEHIND THE FRNT. STILL EXPECT THIS SYSTM TO SWEEP OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FAIRLY RAPID CLRG.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS AND CURRITUCK COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO INDICATED IN THE
VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN AREAS OF HAMPTON ROADS DIRECTLY EXPOSED
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND
RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA
EASTERN SHORE. THE FREEZE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MD
EASTERN SHORE EXCEPT FOR OCEAN CITY AND FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TIMING LOOKS
QUITE GOOD ON THE NAM AND RUC SO WILL FOLLOW THEM CLOSELY. NOTICED
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY INDICATE IT WILL BE HARD FOR
ANY TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS BUT
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SEVER
HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WILL GIVE A TEMPO GROUP
THERE FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS. CURRENTLY WEST
OF THE FRONT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE ALSO GOING
MVFR. WILL KEEP PREDOMINATE CIGS AND VSBY MVFR.
IT WILL BECOME WINDY ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AND COULD BE OVER 35 KTS IN
ORF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 THROUGH THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB/JAB
MARINE...MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS NEW JERSEY TO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO GEORGIA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
AREA ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND 02Z.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO STABILIZATION FROM
EARLIER PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END NEAR
THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CONTINUES IN MOST LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCLUDING RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER TODAY...MOST
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A TOTAL OF AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THE
EVENT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS AND CURRITUCK COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO INDICATED IN THE VIRGINIA PORTION
OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
AND IN AREAS OF HAMPTON ROADS DIRECTLY EXPOSED TO THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS FALLING
INTO THE 40S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVENING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND
RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA
EASTERN SHORE. THE FREEZE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MD
EASTERN SHORE EXCEPT FOR OCEAN CITY AND FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TIMING LOOKS
QUITE GOOD ON THE NAM AND RUC SO WILL FOLLOW THEM CLOSELY. NOTICED
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY INDICATE IT WILL BE HARD FOR
ANY TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS BUT
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SEVER
HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WILL GIVE A TEMPO GROUP
THERE FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS. CURRENTLY WEST
OF THE FRONT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE ALSO GOING
MVFR. WILL KEEP PREDOMINATE CIGS AND VSBY MVFR.
IT WILL BECOME WINDY ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AND COULD BE OVER 35 KTS IN
ORF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 THROUGH THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB/JAB
MARINE...MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
308 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS DIMINISHED
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED. THIS
DOES NOT ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD STILL MIX
DOWN SOME WIND GUSTS THAT WOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FOR A FEW REASONS: THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OFFSHORE AROUND NOON RESULTED
IN SOME STABILIZING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER GEORGIA IS ROBBING SOME OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. FINALLY...THE BACKING OF
SURFACE WINDS TO SE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS EARLIER EXPECTED.
AT 1 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND JUST EAST OF LYNCHBURG. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE 40 MPH OR LESS BUT ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 70 AND 75.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NOTICEABLY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NORTHERN
NECK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
HAMPTON ROADS AND CURRITUCK COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN AREAS
OF HAMPTON ROADS DIRECTLY EXPOSED TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
RAIN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. .
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND
RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA
EASTERN SHORE. THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD EASTERN
SHORE EXCEPT FOR OCEAN CITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME STREAMERS
OVER THE BAY INTO SE VA/NE NC WEDS MORNING. H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO
~-5C (-2 STD DEV)...TRANSLATING TO DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 50S...EVEN UNDER THE STRONG APRIL SUN. TEMPS AGAIN MAY FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING OVER INLAND COUNTIES WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE NC COAST BY THURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TIMING LOOKS
QUITE GOOD ON THE NAM AND RUC SO WILL FOLLOW THEM CLOSELY. NOTICED
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY INDICATE IT WILL BE HARD FOR
ANY TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS BUT
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SEVER
HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WILL GIVE A TEMPO GROUP
THERE FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS. CURRENTLY WEST
OF THE FRONT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE ALSO GOING
MVFR. WILL KEEP PREDOMINATE CIGS AND VSBY MVFR.
IT WILL BECOME WINDY ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AND COULD BE OVER 35 KTS IN
ORF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 THROUGH THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...REMOVED RAMP-UP SCA`S AS
WE ARE WITHIN ~ 12 HRS OF THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...AS PRESSURE FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z AS WINDS SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT (AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION). THIS
EVENING...IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 MB IN A
6 HR PERIOD SHOULD BRING GUSTS OF 35-40 KT FOR ALL ZONES. THIS WILL
ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR THAT WILL ENHANCE MIXING OVER THE
WATERS. WAVES WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL
BLD TO 5 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD JUST
TO THE N BY WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 12Z FOR THE BAY/RIVERS...BUT
HOLDING INTO EARLY AFTN FOR THE COAST AND CURRITUCK SOUND. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB/JAB
MARINE...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS DIMINISHED
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. THE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED. THIS
DOES NOT ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD STILL MIX
DOWN SOME WIND GUSTS THAT WOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE CRITERIA.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FOR A FEW REASONS: THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OFFSHORE AROUND NOON RESULTED
IN SOME STABILIZING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER GEORGIA IS ROBBING SOME OF
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. FINALLY...THE BACKING OF
SURFACE WINDS TO SE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS EARLIER EXPECTED.
AT 1 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND JUST EAST OF LYNCHBURG. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE 40 MPH OR LESS BUT ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 70 AND 75.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NOTICEABLY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND INTERIOR NORTHERN
NECK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
HAMPTON ROADS AND CURRITUCK COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN AREAS
OF HAMPTON ROADS DIRECTLY EXPOSED TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
RAIN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. .
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 OVER INLAND
RURAL AREAS. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA EXCLUDING SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE LOWER VIRGINIA
EASTERN SHORE. THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD EASTERN
SHORE EXCEPT FOR OCEAN CITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME STREAMERS
OVER THE BAY INTO SE VA/NE NC WEDS MORNING. H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO
~-5C (-2 STD DEV)...TRANSLATING TO DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 50S...EVEN UNDER THE STRONG APRIL SUN. TEMPS AGAIN MAY FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING OVER INLAND COUNTIES WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE NC COAST BY THURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND TO
BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN CONTINUED NE
FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY...ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW
NORMAL...WITH TEMPS MODERATING A BIT SATURDAY. ALOFT, NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT NGT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS DO TAKE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY-SATURDAY,
WITH RESULTANT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS PROMPTING
SOME LOW POPS LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 12Z/14 EURO SOLUTION
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. HAVE SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET FOR THIS PACKAGE. RIGHT NOW,
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHC WOULD BE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY, WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE WEST SHUNTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE. QUICK
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD
(EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. TIMING LOOKS
QUITE GOOD ON THE NAM AND RUC SO WILL FOLLOW THEM CLOSELY. NOTICED
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN
THAT. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW ROTATING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
CAN SEE MORE SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY INDICATE IT WILL BE HARD FOR
ANY TSTMS TO DEVELOP. SO FOR NOW WILL NOT PUT THEM IN THE TAFS BUT
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SEVER
HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WILL GIVE A TEMPO GROUP
THERE FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS. CURRENTLY WEST
OF THE FRONT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE ALSO GOING
MVFR. WILL KEEP PREDOMINATE CIGS AND VSBY MVFR.
IT WILL BECOME WINDY ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AND COULD BE OVER 35 KTS IN
ORF. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 THROUGH THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
RAISED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES...REMOVED RAMP-UP SCA`S AS
WE ARE WITHIN ~ 12 HRS OF THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT...AS PRESSURE FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z AS WINDS SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT (AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION). THIS
EVENING...IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 MB IN A
6 HR PERIOD SHOULD BRING GUSTS OF 35-40 KT FOR ALL ZONES. THIS WILL
ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR THAT WILL ENHANCE MIXING OVER THE
WATERS. WAVES WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL
BLD TO 5 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD JUST
TO THE N BY WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 12Z FOR THE BAY/RIVERS...BUT
HOLDING INTO EARLY AFTN FOR THE COAST AND CURRITUCK SOUND. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MAM/JEF
AVIATION...LKB/JAB
MARINE...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BEGIN COLD/WINTRY AS SHORTWAVE
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BTWN DEPARTING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID APR AND WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY
MODERATE AS DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR LIFT TO
GREENLAND...AND PACIFIC AIR MAKES INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND SRN CANADA. HEADING DOWN THE ROAD...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE AROUND NORMAL...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BLO NORMAL DURING THE TEMP SWINGS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM GEM ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS THAT THE PATTERN
MAY BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WHICH WILL MEAN
RAINFALL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EVENTS. HOPEFULLY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE AVOIDED AS THE SNOWMELT SEASON RESUMES.
BEGINNING WED NIGHT...A HVY/WET SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS...MODELS THAT HAD MAX QPF AXIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S AND E. RESULT IS IMPROVING
MODEL AGREEMENT NOW ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SET UP. IT
APPEARS MAX QPF AXIS SHOULD RUN ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE HURON MTNS. THE NAM IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NW OF
THIS AXIS WHILE THE GEM REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC ARE DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
LAKES...BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER FROM
ERN MN E AND NE NTO UPPER MI BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO EASTWARD WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF BRIEF UPPER JET COUPLING
WITH LEFT EXIT OF JET SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOTED WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4G/KG AVBL AROUND
700-750MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH NEGATIVE
EPV/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOTED OVERTOP THE FGEN. FINALLY...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ADVECTING INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE
PCPN AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER BANDING OF
SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MDT/HVY PCPN AREA OR EVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW AT
TIMES...CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR SPRINGTIME HVY SNOW EVENTS.
ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL HINGE ON WHERE THESE
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SET UP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...LOCATIONS W OF KIMT/KMQT LINE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT...PROBABLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADVY ISSUED FOR NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES E MAY IN
FACT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. FINALLY...
EVEN THE FAR E COUNTIES OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO AN ADVY IF THE E TREND HOLDS UP IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS.
PCPN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY THU AND WILL LIKELY END. SFC HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THU NIGHT...AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER EXPANDING OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR
OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI
UNDER MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD EVEN DEVELOP. FRI HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S N WITH A CHILLY WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY
AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC IN LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW...THOUGH AGREEMENT IS
IMPROVING WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS. GEM IS STRONGER WITH WAVE AND
IS HEAVIER WITH THE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECWMF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM NOW. SOME -RA POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
W SAT AFTN...THEN SPREAD E SAT NIGHT/SUN. WITH WETTER TRENDS
NOTED...WILL TRENDING POPS UP TO CHC.
MON/TUE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TROF DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS WHILE TROF SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE/HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS
OF HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY VERIFIES BETTER. RESULT IS A COOLER
THAN GFS SCENARIO...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS. IF ANY
MINOR WAVES TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE ERN TROF...THERE MAY
BE SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN MON OR TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
-SHSN WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 21Z.
AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR AT KIWD BY
LATE WED MORNING AND TO MVFR AT KCMX AND KSAW BTWN 16-18Z WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ006-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ004-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11
AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT /10
AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
ERN TX. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD
-SHSN TO NEAR IWD WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MANTIOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO WAS SLIDING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...NRLY FLOW PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDINGD FROM MANTIOBA
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE ERN LAKES INTO SRN
QUEBEC. THE NORTH WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C SUPPORTED
SOME LIGHT LES TO NEAR P53 DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE
ERN LAKE.
TODAY...THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES
TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LES
THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. SOME ISOLD -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN
LAKE SHRTWV ARE EXPECTED SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS MORNING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8-9C/KM WITH 850/700 MB
TEMPS OF -17C/-27C WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
WEST AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING
TO AROUND A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP OF 27 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI
DIMINISH...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 8F TO 15F RANGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY CLIMB LATE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAA
LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FEATURE OF
INTEREST THAT HELPS TO FOCUS SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SHIELD OF
SNOW VCNTY OF CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY TREND IN MODELS IT IS FOR A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF QPF/SNOW INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 12Z-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. TREND IS NOTHING TOO DRASTIC THOUGH...SO CHANGES TO THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TO UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED ON
290K SFC /H775-H650/ AND 285K SFC /H8-H7/ SURGES SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 15Z-03Z...THOUGH GFS/NAM REMAIN QUICKER
WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE MAINLY SNOW FOR
CWA. H7 MIXING RATIOS IN 2.5-2.75G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW
AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES. SUPPOSE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE
HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN SOME INSOLATION
COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS.
THUS OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW COULD BE MITIGATED SOME
COMPARED TO IF THE SNOW ARRIVED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ULTIMATELY IT ALL DEPENDS ON SNOWFALL RATES...WITH HIGHER RATES
ALLOWING FOR SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON THE PRIMARY ROADS.
NAM QPF STILL APPEARS OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN
MIXING RATIOS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT AREAS OVER MAINLY WESTERN TIER OF
CWA WILL SEE HIGHER QPF/SNOW DUE TO INCREASING AND FAIRLY ROBUST
H8-H7 FGEN AND STRONG FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FAR WEST TOWARD KEWEENAW
SEEMS IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING
WHICH COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH INSTABILITY AS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IS
PRESENT ATOP THE FGEN. NET RESULT IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CWA.
EVEN TRENDING AWAY FM THE NAM 1 INCH PLUS QPF AMOUNTS...BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS WILL SEE 0.8 INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SREF PROBS SHOWING OVER 70 PCT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH BUT NOT EVEN REACHING 10 PCT PROBS OF SEEING 1
INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW BULK OF LIFT OCCURRING IN THE
DGZ UP OVER 10KFT AGL. LIFT BLO THIS LAYER IN TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C
WILL LOWER SLR/S SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS CENTERED IN THE 12:1
RANGE...A BIT HIGHER IN THE FGEN AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS BLO 5KFT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS DECENT LIKLIHOOD OF SEEING TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES OVER WEST VCNTY OF PERSISTENT FGEN FORCING...BUT
PROBABLY MORE IN THE 7 TO 10 RANGE FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL CWA.
SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE CNTRL CWA...COORD WITH GRB
AND DLH AND WILL BE LEAVING WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS ATTM.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES INDICATE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE GENERALLY SNOW. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS SOUTH
OF LINE FM KIMT TO KERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ONLY
RAIN REMAINS AT KMNM AS WBZERO HEIGHT INCREASE OVER 2000FT AGL. MAY
SEE MORE AREAS CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S...BUT HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH
OF CWA BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXITING DEEP MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SITUATION WHERE DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE MAIN PCPN THAT IS
OCCURRING BY THURSDAY AFTN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE HELD
DOWN OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WARMER AIR BLO H85 WORKING
IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM THINKING AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH WILL NEED AN ADVY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND
UKMET ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SHIFTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL NEED TO PIN THIS DOWN FURTHER.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LEANED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WAS ALSO
PREFERRED BY HPC.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS WAS
ON THE HIGHER IMPACT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WEATHER. PROBABLY JUST AS
WELL TO AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY ON SPECIFICS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
ONE TREND THAT WAS ACTED UPON WAS TO GO WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPR LAKES A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SHUNTING PRECIP WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ALONG PRIMARY H85
MOISTURE AXIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTH CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THUS DROPPED POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY
CHILLY THOUGH WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH AS NE WINDS
FLOW OFF THE ICY WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE COULD BE MID CLOUDS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR SATURDAY/EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH TRENDING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PTYPE
WOULD MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY RETREATS. GFS NOT AS EXCITED
ON THE OVERALL PCPN CHANCES. FORECAST CAME OUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WORKS FOR NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR SURE. TEMPS INDICATE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...BUT COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST IF ANY OF
THESE DAYS ENDS UP DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
-SHSN WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 21Z.
AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR AT KIWD BY
LATE WED MORNING AND TO MVFR AT KCMX AND KSAW BTWN 16-18Z WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO
CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
SLOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...
HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...
WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...
AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH.
THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...
HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:
WED 04/16 THU 04/17
LOW/YEAR LOW MAX/YEAR LOW/YEAR
FAY: 28/1943 56/1950 31/1953
GSO: 25/1943 48/1929 29/1953
RDU: 28/1950 46/1890 29/1962
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AS
UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION AND REMAINS
INTO FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TO START THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT MONDAY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WAS EXPECTED
AND THE LINE SHOULD MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN.
AS OF 1150 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON THE RAPID COOL-OFF OVER THE NC
MTNS...AS WELL AS UPSTREAM SNOW REPORTS...I NOW HAVE SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND THE NRN NC
MTNS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. NO CHANGE ON THE
THINKING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH HEATING FOR
A SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE CONVECTION GETS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
THE SFC COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP AS A RADAR FINE LINE...AND HAS NOW
MOVED INTO THE WRN UPSTATE...AND ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS THE NC MTNS.
AS OF 905 AM EDT MONDAY...LOWERED POPS AND CUT BACK THUNDER CHANCES
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SPC HAS CUT THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FROM OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THE LOW OVERCAST THAT IS NOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD INHIBIT WHAT WAS ALREADY
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED HEATING. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...I STILL THINK WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
FEW TSTMS. THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATE THIS. SO I DID
KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY.
I/M GOING TO START THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS EFFECTIVE
IMMEDIATELY. THE NAM AVL BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY 10 DEG C
TEMP DROP FROM 14 TO 15 UTC. THAT KIND OF COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING SOME GOOD GUSTS TO THE MTNS.
AS OF 7 AM...SHRA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
THRU THE DAY. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE CLT AREA AROUND 18Z
WITH FROPA. HAVE KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA THE LONGEST TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WAVE DOES DEVELOP...SVR STORM CHC WILL
DEVELOP AS THE SHEAR AND HELICITY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WHAT THERE IS WILL BE OVER
THAT AREA. UPDATED TO COVER THESE CONCERNS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 320 AM...WIDESPREAD SHRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT
TSRA ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FIRST WAVE OF TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AFTER
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE STRONG FORCING AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS A WAVE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION WHERE
TSRA ARE CURRENTLY. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...A SWIRL IS SEEN MOVING THIS WAY...AND WOULD
REACH THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP CAT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THRU 12Z...THEN TAPER OFF POP
FROM SW TO NE THRU THE MORNING...WITH LINGERING CAT POP OVER THE
I-77 CORRIDOR THRU 18Z. WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA ACROSS THE
ARE WITH BEST CHC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. WITH THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY LINEAR STORM
FEATURES THAT DEVELOP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THAT SAID...BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWFA. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STREAM
LEVELS. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND COULD BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY MORE URBANIZED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHUD
REACH ADVISORY CRITERION ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NE GA.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 2 PM THRU
MIDNIGHT.
PRECIP TAPERS OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE NW FLOW AND CAA COULD LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW WOULD BE LIGHT WITH NO
ACCUMS. ELSEHWERE...DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED.
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN...AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE NRN MTNS WHICH HAVE NOT REACHED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON YET. LOWS WILL BE 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND WILL THREATEN RECORDS AT AVL AND CLT. THE
RECORD AT GSP IS QUITE COLD AND SHOULD BE SAFE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...A DRY AND COOL ARIMASS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A CP HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH A DRY WEDGE REMAINING
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRI AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WINDS VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. ALSO...CYCLOGENESIS IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
HOWEVER...WILL DISCOUNT THE CMH SOLUTION OF A MORE NORTHERN
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND SIGNIFICANT QPF EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
AREA AND ACCEPT THE IDEA OF THE GFS/ECM THAT THE ASSOCIATED QPF WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT QPFTO BE MINIMAL OR
NON-EXISTANT. WILL HAVE SOME VERY LOW END POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES. THIS IDEA IS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM/SREF.
THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPS AGAIN WED NIGHT. WITH VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIRMASS...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THU. FREEZING TEMPS ARE A GOOD BET ACROSS ALL OF THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. WILL BE POSTING A
FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT. ALSO...SOME SCT
FROST CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY FRI OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A H5
TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT A LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. COVERAGE OF QPF ACROSS THE CWFA REMAINS VERY
LIMITED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. I WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS
FOR SHRA BETWEEN FRI TO SAT. SUN...MID LEVEL SHALLOW RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WEAK WAA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES. ON MON...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MON
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CROSS THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18-20 UTC. EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN AS THE LINE PASSES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE LINE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AIRFIELD. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 28-30 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATER
TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSTMS WAS CROSSING THE
AIRFIELDS AT KGSP/KGMU AT ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS...THOUGH SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS AT
KAVL WILL BE STRONGER...GUSTING ALMOST TO 40KTS FROM THE NW INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 96% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16...
AVL...26 IN 1943
CLT...29 IN 2008
GSP...24 IN 1907
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
CLIMATE...