Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/13/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE CATSKILLS AS OF 3 AM LOCAL. FRONT IS
MAKING QUICK PROGRESS AND WILL REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (ORANGE COUNTY) BY SUNRISE. THIS IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AT
AN ANA FRONT WITH THE PCPN AND MOISTURE TRIALING THE SURFACE
POSITION.
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING NYC AROUND 8AM WHERE I EXPECT THE FRONT TO
STALL OUT. AREA OF RAIN SEEN OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM REACHES LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE 8 AM (NORTH OF THE FRONT). HRRR AND RAP ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PCPN WEAKENING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA. HAVE
USED A 60 POP AS IT MAY NOT MEASURE. PCPN WEAKENS TO SPRINKLES AS
IT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THEN IS DRY FOR A FEW HOURS.
MAIN FEATURE IS THE SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AT 60 KT AS OF 3 AM. THIS INDUCES WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT AND QUICKLY INCREASE PCPN LIKELIHOOD THIS
AFTN NORTH OF THE FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED AND HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN TO REACH
NYC METRO UNTIL AROUND 6 PM.
HAVE USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS FEEL NAM IS CLOSER TO EXPECTED
PCPN PATTERN. THAT SAID...MID 70S FOR NE JERSEY...60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PCPN SPREADS EAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD BE OVER IN THE NY METRO BY MIDNIGHT
AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN EVENT IS HIGH.
00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CONTINUES THE IDEA WITH HEAVIER PCPN.
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF...THIS SURE SEEMS HIGH. THINK
WE`RE LOOKING AT 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH QPF ON AVERAGE. WHILE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH...CLUSTER AND
MAX ANALYSIS OF THE SREF DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND ARE UNDER DONE. WILL THUS GO WITH LITTLE
VARIATION IN QPF.
HAVE SIDED WITH A MOS BLEND AND THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE MERIDIONAL WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PIVOTING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. A DEVELOPING LOW AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION DISSIPATES SUNDAY...LEAVING A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
GETS REINFORCED BY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WARM FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...IN OUR REGION...WE WILL BE IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE RESULT.
WARMING TREND IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS N/W OF NYC. WITH THE SECOND AND
THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE LOW LEVELS TO MAKE FOR PATCHY
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE CONTINUOUS MOISTURE AND WARMTH FEED IS FURTHER AUGMENTED BY A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS SHOW THE JET
TAPPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EMBEDDED STREAKS OF AROUND
130-160 KT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FOG VERSUS STRATUS.
ONE THING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AS SUCH...WITH THE UPPER
AND LOW LEVEL JETS FEEDING IN MOISTURE...THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH...EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDRO SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE BULK OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING MOVES IN
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
45-55 KT LLJ WILL KEEP LLWS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...ENDING 11Z TO
13Z...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AT 40 KT AROUND 1
KFT...INCREASING TO 45-55 KT AT 2 KFT.
LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF NYC THIS AFTN SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MARGINAL VFR VSBY THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY WIND INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...11Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY WIND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...11Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY WIND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...11Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING...LIKELY THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING...LIKELY THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH WIND AT
2KFT AROUND 55KT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGH GUST POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS
EVENING...23Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT THRU SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.MON...BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. S WIND G20-25KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE...RAIN LIKELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN WATERS REMAIN IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY TOO HIGH FROM THE 00Z RUN. WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING...THINK SEAS WILL FALL BELOW THE 5 FT CRITERIA ON THE
OCEAN EXCEPT SOUTH OF MONTAUK (44017).
5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON ANZ-350-353 SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...SCA SEAS DEVELOP AND BUILD UP
TO 8-14 FT TUE-WED TIME PERIOD.
FOR WINDS...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
THEN...WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS MON AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR
MOST WATERS THROUGH TUE. TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WILL PRESENT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
HERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF RANGES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. WITH PWATS FORECAST OF 1.25 TO 1.5
INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS BEING HINTED AT
WITHIN INDIVIDUAL 6HR PLOTS OF QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS AND CMC
HAVE AMOUNTS OF 1.2 TO 1.7 INCHES WITHIN A 6HR PERIOD. PLEASE NOTE
THAT MODEL TOTAL QPF RANGES COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...DIFFICULT TO STATE THE EXACT POTENTIAL AND
MAGNITUDE OF ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING BUT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS RAINFALL...MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LOOKS
TO BE THE MORE COMMON THREAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE CATSKILLS AS OF 3 AM LOCAL. FRONT IS
MAKING QUICK PROGRESS AND WILL REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (ORANGE COUNTY) BY SUNRISE. THIS IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AT
AN ANA FRONT WITH THE PCPN AND MOISTURE TRIALING THE SURFACE
POSITION.
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING NYC AROUND 8AM WHERE I EXPECT THE FRONT TO
STALL OUT. AREA OF RAIN SEEN OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM REACHES LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE 8 AM (NORTH OF THE FRONT). HRRR AND RAP ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PCPN WEAKENING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA. HAVE
USED A 60 POP AS IT MAY NOT MEASURE. PCPN WEAKENS TO SPRINKLES AS
IT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THEN IS DRY FOR A FEW HOURS.
MAIN FEATURE IS THE SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AT 60 KT AS OF 3 AM. THIS INDUCES WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT AND QUICKLY INCREASE PCPN LIKELIHOOD THIS
AFTN NORTH OF THE FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED AND HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN TO REACH
NYC METRO UNTIL AROUND 6 PM.
HAVE USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS FEEL NAM IS CLOSER TO EXPECTED
PCPN PATTERN. THAT SAID...MID 70S FOR NE JERSEY...60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PCPN SPREADS EAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD BE OVER IN THE NY METRO BY MIDNIGHT
AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN EVENT IS HIGH.
00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CONTINUES THE IDEA WITH HEAVIER PCPN.
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF...THIS SURE SEEMS HIGH. THINK
WE`RE LOOKING AT 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH QPF ON AVERAGE. WHILE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH...CLUSTER AND
MAX ANALYSIS OF THE SREF DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND ARE UNDER DONE. WILL THUS GO WITH LITTLE
VARIATION IN QPF.
HAVE SIDED WITH A MOS BLEND AND THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE MERIDIONAL WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PIVOTING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. A DEVELOPING LOW AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION DISSIPATES SUNDAY...LEAVING A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
GETS REINFORCED BY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WARM FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...IN OUR REGION...WE WILL BE IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE RESULT.
WARMING TREND IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS N/W OF NYC. WITH THE SECOND AND
THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE LOW LEVELS TO MAKE FOR PATCHY
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE CONTINUOUS MOISTURE AND WARMTH FEED IS FURTHER AUGMENTED BY A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS SHOW THE JET
TAPPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EMBEDDED STREAKS OF AROUND
130-160 KT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FOG VERSUS STRATUS.
ONE THING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AS SUCH...WITH THE UPPER
AND LOW LEVEL JETS FEEDING IN MOISTURE...THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH...EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDRO SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE BULK OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING MOVES IN
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
45-50 KT LLJ WILL KEEP LLWS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AT 40 KT AROUND 1 KFT...INCREASING
TO 45-50 KT AT 2 KFT.
LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF NYC THIS AFTN SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MARGINAL VFR VSBY THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NGT...MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE.
.SUN...BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.MON...ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY QUICKLY
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. S WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NGT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...RAIN LIKELY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. EVENING COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS
G20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN WATERS REMAIN IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY TOO HIGH FROM THE 00Z RUN. WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING...THINK SEAS WILL FALL BELOW THE 5 FT CRITERIA ON THE
OCEAN EXCEPT SOUTH OF MONTAUK (44017).
5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON ANZ-350-353 SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...SCA SEAS DEVELOP AND BUILD UP
TO 8-14 FT TUE-WED TIME PERIOD.
FOR WINDS...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
THEN...WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS MON AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR
MOST WATERS THROUGH TUE. TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WILL PRESENT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
HERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF RANGES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. WITH PWATS FORECAST OF 1.25 TO 1.5
INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS BEING HINTED AT
WITHIN INDIVIDUAL 6HR PLOTS OF QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS AND CMC
HAVE AMOUNTS OF 1.2 TO 1.7 INCHES WITHIN A 6HR PERIOD. PLEASE NOTE
THAT MODEL TOTAL QPF RANGES COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...DIFFICULT TO STATE THE EXACT POTENTIAL AND
MAGNITUDE OF ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING BUT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS RAINFALL...MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LOOKS
TO BE THE MORE COMMON THREAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
INVERTED SE/NW TROUGH IN THE 850-700 MB LEVELS EXTENDS FROM THE
WATERS JUST OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY TO ANDROS ISLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE
SO 20% SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, LEFTOVER SEABREEZE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE GULF COAST
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE INLAND AND GULF COAST. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW STREAMER SHRAS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING AND ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSH TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THESE LIGHT SHRAS AROUND THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND A FEW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. KEPT
VCSH MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AS THE COVERAGE DOES NOT SEEM
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN NOW AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER AND INCREASED MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE EAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
A DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY MONDAY, ANCHORED BY
THE LOW IN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
THE US AND FEATURING A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION WITH EMBEDDED VORT
MAX DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
BY SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL ALLOW
FOR THE SURFACE WINDS IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT SINCE YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED THE ECMWF TRENDING FASTER AND
LESS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AND THE UKMET TRENDING SLOWER. RIGHT NOW
THE 12Z GFS IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND SHOWS
THE FRONT AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND IT DOES NOT SHOW A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THAT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
INCREASING A BIT SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR MAINE
BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A STRONG GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A NORTHEAST SWELL MAY THEN BEGIN
IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 82 74 86 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 83 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 73 83 75 87 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 66 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
741 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FEW STREAMER SHRAS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING AND ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSH TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LATEST HRRR KEEPS THESE LIGHT SHRAS AROUND THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND A FEW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. KEPT
VCSH MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AS THE COVERAGE DOES NOT SEEM
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN NOW AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER AND INCREASED MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE EAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
A DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY MONDAY, ANCHORED BY
THE LOW IN HUDSON BAY WITH TROUGHING DOWN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
THE US AND FEATURING A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION WITH EMBEDDED VORT
MAX DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
BY SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL ALLOW
FOR THE SURFACE WINDS IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT SINCE YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED THE ECMWF TRENDING FASTER AND
LESS DEEP WITH THE TROUGH AND THE UKMET TRENDING SLOWER. RIGHT NOW
THE 12Z GFS IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND SHOWS
THE FRONT AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND IT DOES NOT SHOW A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THAT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
INCREASING A BIT SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR MAINE
BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND A STRONG GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A NORTHEAST SWELL MAY THEN BEGIN
IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 82 74 86 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 83 77 87 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 73 83 75 87 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 66 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
123 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION MID THROUGH LATE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 0F 945 AM...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING TO 6500 FEET TODAY WITH NEARLY
UNOBSTRUCTED SKIES...EXCEPT POSSIBLY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ASSISTANCE FROM A ROBUST SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
DRIVEN BY A LARGE LAND/SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL. FAVORABLE
ONSHORE FETCH AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA...AND PARTS OF COLLETON AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES.
TONIGHT A DRY SHORT-WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SKIRT
THE ZONES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIME-HEIGHT DEPICTIONS OF RH AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT IN A LAYER AROUND
800 MB AND SOME CUMULUS OR STRATO-CUMULUS WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING
AT DAYBREAK...BUT NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE PLANNED AS IT REMAINS
BONE-DRY ABOVE 7000 FEET. CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE SSW FLOW ALOFT. LATEST RAP MODEL DEPICTIONS
SHOW SSW WINDS AT 20 KT AT 200M/650FT. THIS WILL OFFSET IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT UNDER A CLEAR DOME OVERNIGHT....MINIMUMS
WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR EACH DAY SHOW A CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GOOD DIURNAL HEATING SETUP. INSTEAD...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
TO AROUND 80 OR INTO THE LOW 80S WHICH IS ON THE ORDER OF 4-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...A PROGRESSIVE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE A BIT
COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WELL...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
WEEKEND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STEADILY ERODING THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME LESS HOSTILE TO CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON
HEATING. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE INCREASING
POPS...WITH ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
CHANCE POP. GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA...AND ANY INSTABILITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK...THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS ISN/T EXPECTED TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ON TAP. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN
MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
CURRENT TIMING FROM THE MODELS FAVORS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
TUESDAY AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. POPS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY.
I HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND BE
REPLACED BY STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
IN NORTH OF THE AREA. IT THEN APPEARS THAT A PROLONGED INLAND WEDGE
EVENT WILL SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. I HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR LAND AREAS DURING THIS TIME...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN A COASTAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS JUST
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME GROUND FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...EXPECT FEW/SCT CU AND SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWING SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. THESE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AS S-SW WINDS BECOME AOB 5 KTS TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S...SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS GO LIGHT/CALM BEFORE DAYBREAK. FCST SOUNDINGS
AND GUIDANCE ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KSAV...SO
WILL INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS FOR THIS SITE IN THE 09-12Z RANGE. FOG
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT KCHS...BUT TEMPO MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
EXPECT VFR ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY...
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 945 AM...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WSW INTO COASTAL SC AND GA...MAINTAINING A
MODERATE SW WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A VERY LARGE LAND/SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME THE ENGINE
THAT PROPELS A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. COUPLING THIS FEATURE
WITH EXPECTED SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD YIELD GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. 1-2 FOOT WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...STRONG SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND
ONCE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DIE OFF THIS EVENING AND GENERAL SOUTH
AND SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TAKE OVER. SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST
EARLY ON...UP NEAR 12-17 KT...THEN DROPS OFF TO UNDER 10 KT LATE.
SEAS WILL HOLD IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE...AVERAGING 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WINDS
BEING 10 KT OR LESS DURING THIS TIME...OTHER THAN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES. SEAS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITHIN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
CHS/MJC/JDW/BJR/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1041 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
843 PM CDT
LAKE/OUTFLOW ENHANCE COLD FRONT HAS SEEPED SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NE
IL THIS EVENING AND STRETCHES WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 700-800MB THAT HAD BEEN OBSERVED
ON ACARS SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. THUS
FAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIFTING PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. FRONT MAY
MEANDER AROUND A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT...MEANING THE BEST FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS WISCONSIN AND JUST NORTH OF
OUR CWA. SURFACE BASED WARM SECTOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING AND IT IS THIS
CONVECTION THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO BRING OUR AREA RAIN
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF CAP AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO ELIMINATE THE CINH IN THE WARM SECTOR...OUR BEST
THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE THE CONVECTION IN IOWA CONGEALING INTO AN
MCS AND ROLLING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL...BUT ALSO SEEMS TO SUGGEST
A WEAKENING TREND AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT. EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCLEAR...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD APPEAR THE BEST THREAT OF RAIN WOULD
BE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THERE. HAVE MADE SOME MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.
IZZI
//PREV DISCUSSION...
359 PM CDT
A ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RUMBLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE
WINDY AS WARM AS THE WARM FRONT BLASTED NORTH OF THE REGION. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MORE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THEN THE TIMING OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW THAT THE CWA IS
WELL ENTRENCHED IN WARM SECTOR AIR WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES
PEGGING 80 F. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FLAT APPEARANCE TO THE CU
FIELD WOULD INDICATE THAT THE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL SLIGHTLY
STABLE AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
INHIBITION WILL ERODE AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN SHOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALOFT RIPPLES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
HAVE A TWO-FOLD EFFECT. ONE IMPACT WILL BE TO FOCUS AND ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO AREA...NEAR
OR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SAG SEWD...REACHING THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES BACK TO THE
MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SFC
BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OVERRUNNING REGION NORTH OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATED CLOSE TO 1 INCH
PWAT AND THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWATS
WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERSISTENT FETCH OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE HIGH
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE SLOW
PROGRESSIVE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND PCPN EVEN IN THE OVERRUNNING REGION
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ANTICIPATE
SOME SWD PROGRESSION TO THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ANTICIPATE
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...PIVOTING
AROUND SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIPPLING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT. DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PWATS INVOF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES PER THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR
QPF...ANTICIPATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE AREAL AVERAGE PCPN AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1 INCH PER 6 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OR IN AREAS OF ECHO TRAINING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE THE SLOWEST PROGRESSION FOR THE PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF PCPN OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE 18-24 HOUR
PERIOD WHEN THE FRONT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER NRN IL.
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE QUICKLY PROGRESSIVE BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET STREAM DIGGING SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ALONG UNDERGOES
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY COMBINED WITH AN BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SET
UP FAST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF EXTENDED COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FROM HIGHS AROUND 80F TODAY AND MIDDLE
70S TOMORROW TO ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON MONDAY. CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP HIGHS EVEN LOWER FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS
WILL DROP OFF AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH. CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS ACROSS THE CWA ONLY
IN THE 20S. EVEN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 30F. WITH
THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE
CURRENT TIME AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE...OTHER THAN TO
MENTION THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION.
LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL WARMING
TREND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
PATTERN WHILE BECOMING MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH WITH THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
BY THURSDAY...LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS WANTS TO
DEVELOP SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A CLOSED NRN STREAM
LOW OVER THE ND/SCNTRL CANADA BORDER AND A CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED AT THE SFC
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A PHASED OPEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER RIDGING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TOWARD CENTRAL CANADA. ESSENTIALLY...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS SEEMS OVERLY DEVELOPED WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...AND HAVE
TRENDED THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LOW POPS. ADMITTEDLY...THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LATE
* SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ANYTIME SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
LATER IN DAY
* POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS VSBY LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
SHRA/TSRA OVER IOWA ARE CONSOLIDATING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY HOW WELL THAT LINE
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
TONIGHT. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES MORE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE TSRA OVER
IOWA POTENTIAL COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAT STORMS COULD LAST
LONG ENOUGH TO REACH CHICAGO TERMINALS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST
MAINTAINED SOME VCTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND WILL LET OVERNIGHT
SHIFT RE-EVALUATE IN A FEW HOURS.
IZZI
UPDATED 00Z...
A STRONG LAKE AND THUNDERSTORM ENHANCED COLD FRONT IS LURKING
ABOUT ABOUT 25SM NORTH OF KORD EARLY THIS EVENING AND HAD BEEN
MAKING SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NORTH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT REPEATED BOUTS OF TSRA OVER WISCONSIN AND
SOME SLACKENING OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER SUNSET COULD ALLOW
BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE WIND SHIFT.
ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM ORD LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD PREVENT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AFFECT THE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY OVER
WISCONSIN COULD INCH SOUTHWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT BUT GREATER
THREAT OF TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IS WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT
OVER IA. THESE SHRA/TSRA COULD CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER AND MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. IF THESE STORMS DO INDEED
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IT COULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AND LOCK IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AT ORD AND MOST OF THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY. MODELS
ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT AND IT IS ALMOST A TOSS UP WHAT DIRECTION WINDS WILL BE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE TWO MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES
BEING NORTHEAST OR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS
THE FRONT COULD MEANDER BACK AND FORTH SUNDAY RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AND BACK AGAIN.
AFTER A POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT IT APPEARS SOME
BREAK IN PRECIP COULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL. AS COLD NORTHEAST WINDS LOCK IN
AND RAIN FALLS EXPECT A QUICK DETERIORATION TO IFR LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA REMAINING NORTH/WEST OF ORD/MDW
THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
* ABSOLUTELY NO CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY. IFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EARLY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY...JUST PRIOR TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COMPLEX WIND FORECAST ACROSS
THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE
LARGE VARIATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS DIFFERENT
SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THIS FIRST LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE. THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SECOND LOW PASSES.
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS FAR AS HEADLINE
CRITERIA WINDS...WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
CONTINUING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE
WATERS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY CONTINUE HERE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS COULD AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
REQUIRING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME I WILL HOLD OFF ON DOING THIS.
CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY
GALES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE LAKE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...A RATHER STOUT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH COULD SUPPORT AROUND 40 KT
NORTHERLY GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. I HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
4 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM
MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Latest hourly runs of the HRRR and RAP models suggest that
forecast area will remain dry through the night, with the
shower/storm threat increasing from the northwest after sunrise
Sunday. This is a drier solution than some of the earlier runs, as
well as most of the synoptic model runs. Feel this drier trend is
the way to go.
The local airmass, per 00Z KILX and forecast soundings, is quite
dry, and there is not expected to be significant moisture
advection into the area overnight. In fact, the low level flow in
our area is expected to diminish for a time later tonight, with the
best low level inflow apt to remain into the frontal zone to our
northwest. This is where significant convection has blown up over
the past few hours. The main threat for any precipitation reaching
the forecast area before daybreak is if a significant cold pool
can develop with the storms to the northwest and help them
propagate to the southeast. Even if this were to occur, the storms
would be moving into an increasingly hostile environment and
should weaken significantly with time.
Plan to update to remove PoPs from this evening, and reduce them
overnight, restricting them to locations west of the Illinois
River Valley. Otherwise, only minor tweaks are needed for the
expected hourly trends.
Bak
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
The 00Z TAF forecast becomes rather tricky by late tonight across
the central Illinois terminals. Southerly winds, frequently quite
gusty, should prevail through the period ahead of a slowly
approaching storm system. However, the forecast models continue to
struggle with the details regarding when the precipitation threat
arrives locally as the system draws closer. This also has a
significant impact on how soon conditions fall below VFR.
The low pressure center and frontal system with the storm still
lie well west and north of central Illinois this evening. While
some of the guidance has precipitation chances arriving tonight as
convective storm complex remnants to our northwest sink toward the
area, confidence in this occurring is low. The better chance of
showers and storms will come later Sunday morning into midday as
the main system approaches the Illinois border from the west.
Tried to time in arrival of the more widespread pre-frontal
precipitation with the best model consensus, and carried no more
than a VCSH mention before then.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Warm weather to hold over our area through most of Sunday before a
change to much colder weather on Monday. Main forecast concerns will
be with timing of showers and thunderstorms into west central IL
later this evening and over the remainder of the forecast area by
Sunday night with light snow chances rearing its ugly head Monday
evening as the last of the southern stream shortwaves pushes across
the Ohio Valley.
Warm front that raced through our area early this morning became
active just after sunrise with severe storms across northern IL.
That has effectively put a stop to the northward push of the
boundary and that area from far northern IL west-southwest thru
central Iowa will be the focus for additional thunderstorm
development later this afternoon. Further south in our area,
forecast soundings continue to show a capping inversion in place
between 800-700 mb and short term forecast models suggest this
will hold into the evening hours. So with any focusing mechanism
remaining well to our north and the cap in place, POPs late this
afternoon thru the mid evening hours will be low.
Further west and north, with some impressive CAPE and shear values
forecast across Iowa, supercells will likely be the initial storm
mode before transitioning to more of quasi-linear system late
this evening. Question becomes if it does become organized and a
cold pool develops, we will see a shift southeast into our far
northwest counties late this evening. This is supported by the SPC
WRF and HRW-ARW and NMM simulations which quickly consolidates
from any discrete storms in west central Iowa into a fairly decent
line of storms before the cold pool becomes dominant and storms
dissipate as they translate southeast into our area by midnight.
Still the chance that if the storms remain rather un-organized and
do not develop any cold pool, we may not see much if any rain
across our north overnight as the storm movement will remain
mostly east-northeast across Iowa into northern IL. Will continue
to keep the highest POPs across the northwest for tonight with no
precip expected east of I-55.
It still appears we will be able to enjoy one more warm day on Sunday
with our east and southeast counties probably rain free until Sunday
night. The latest ECMWF and NAM-WRF eject a southern stream wave
northeast into the Midwest by late in the day with an increase in
shower and thunderstorm chances from west to east with the highest
during the day mainly west of I55. Moisture transport really picks
up ahead of this wave late in the day with precipitable water values
of 1.25-1.40 inches, well above climatological norms for our area
for the middle of April. All areas should see a decent rain event
Sunday night as the surface wave slowly moves northeast along the
boundary, which will be right across our forecast area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Better Cape and Shear values will be south
of our area with forecast soundings pretty much saturated from the
ground up Sunday night, so the main threat will be with the threat
for heavy rainfall as the heavier bands of rain with isolated storms
move from southwest to northeast. Rainfall totals still look to be
in the 1 to 2 inch range with some isolated higher amounts possible
Sunday night into early Monday as the surface low enhanced the low
level convergence along the slow moving frontal boundary.
Much colder weather will slowly filter in on Monday as the wave
shifts off to our northeast allowing the boundary to make a bit
more progress to our east during the day. May have a tough time
getting temps to budge out of the 40s north, with morning highs
expected in the southeast before temps fall off in the afternoon.
The NAM-WRF and to a certain extent the GFS model suggests additional
energy to push across our area on Monday with temp profiles trending
colder and more supportive of at least a rain/snow mixture by late
afternoon, and especially after dark. However, the better lift looks
to shift away from our area in the evening so precip amounts look to
be very light, but cold enough to support a mix before the precip
shuts down by midnight.
With the slow moving 500 mb trof axis finally shifting off to our
east late Monday night, skies should begin to clear as high
pressure settles in bringing frost/freezing temperatures to most of
our area by Tuesday morning with lows from the mid 20s far north
to the lower 30s southeast. Quiet weather expected the remainder
of the day on Tuesday as the fair weather system drifts across our
area keeping it on the dry and chilly side.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
Several weather systems to affect our area this period but moisture
will be rather limited with the first wave pushing across the Great
Lakes on Thursday. Next wave embedded in the zonal flow arrives
on Saturday with a better supply of moisture ahead of it. As a result,
will add some mentionable POPs into the grids for the start of the
weekend. After the cool start on Wednesday, our upper flow flattens
out enough to allow milder temperatures back into the area for the
end of the week with temperatures closer to normal for the middle
of April.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
203 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* A SMALL CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE REACHING MDW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT INTO THIS MORNING.
A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEEPER MIXING OVER LAND /THUS BRINGING DOWN
STRONGER SOUTHWEST SPEEDS ALOFT/ SHOULD PROMPT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z OR SO. A LAKE BREEZE
IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE AND MAKE SOME SUBTLE PROGRESS
INLAND BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z BEFORE LIKELY BEING PUSHED BACK TO
SHORE. AT THIS TIME...GYY IS FAVORED TO SEE A WIND SHIFT WHILE ORD
AND MDW ARE NOT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEPEND ON SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SUBTLE FACTORS SO IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THAT IT PROGRESSES FURTHER WEST INTO COOK COUNTY BEFORE IT
RETREATS. A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO THE MID TEENS AND MAYBE EVEN 20
KT COULD BE REACHED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 15K-25K FT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF MDW AND HIGH IN IT
REMAINING EAST OF ORD.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* MONDAY...SHRA LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
MTF/CMS
&&
.MARINE...
203 AM CDT
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE LAKE IS UPCOMING THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE
BREEZE /ONSHORE FLOW/ TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITHIN THE ILLINOIS AND ESPECIALLY THE INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. AS
DEEPER MIXING OCCURS OVER LAND INTO THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVER LAND AND USHER THE LAKE BREEZE
AWAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED OVER ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
FAIRLY HIGH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS /20-25 KT/. DUE TO THE
STABILITY FORECAST OVER THE LAKE...GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED THE
SUSTAINED WINDS BY VERY MUCH. AS THE FIRST LOW PASSES OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL LEAVE A
WEST-TO-EAST COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN PUSH BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OOZE THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
YET. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND THAT WILL SWEEP THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD AND ALSO
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS BY MONDAY. WITH MORE OF A COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME...NORTHERLY GUSTS ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
REACH GALE CRITERIA DURING MONDAY. INITIALLY LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT DOES LOOK LIKE A QUIETER PERIOD FOR THE
LAKE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* A SMALL CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE REACHING MDW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT INTO THIS MORNING.
A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEEPER MIXING OVER LAND /THUS BRINGING DOWN
STRONGER SOUTHWEST SPEEDS ALOFT/ SHOULD PROMPT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z OR SO. A LAKE BREEZE
IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE AND MAKE SOME SUBTLE PROGRESS
INLAND BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z BEFORE LIKELY BEING PUSHED BACK TO
SHORE. AT THIS TIME...GYY IS FAVORED TO SEE A WIND SHIFT WHILE ORD
AND MDW ARE NOT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEPEND ON SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SUBTLE FACTORS SO IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THAT IT PROGRESSES FURTHER WEST INTO COOK COUNTY BEFORE IT
RETREATS. A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO THE MID TEENS AND MAYBE EVEN 20
KT COULD BE REACHED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 15K-25K FT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF MDW AND HIGH IN IT
REMAINING EAST OF ORD.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* MONDAY...SHRA LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
MTF/CMS
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
711 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
EVENING SOUNDING SO FAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP IN
PLACE WHICH IS PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 3 HOURS SHOW NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING BACK TOWARD KOMA AND SOUTH
TO KFNB. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 40 MINUTES...A SEMI
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CONNECT THE SOUTHWEST
IOWA CONVECTION WITH THE NORTHEAST IOWA CONVECTION.
NOWCASTING TOOLS AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE CONVECTION WILL
JUST SKIRT OR CATCH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STARTING AROUND 9-10 PM THERE SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLE UPSCALE GROWTH IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE
LLJ BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
BASED ON CLOUD/RADAR TRENDS AND WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED INTERNALLY
BY TRENDS FROM THE RAP ETC...A MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OR WEST/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TOWARD KEBS.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF NEW CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO
DEVELOP/PUSH CONVECTION VERY SLOWLY INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
WEST OF KDBQ BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
AFTER 7 PM...IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES AND THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A VERY PRONOUNCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM SIOUX CITY
IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS OF 2 PM. THIS FRONT HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ON ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...AND WILL BE AGAIN
THE FOCUS IN A FEW HOURS. THE MORNING ROUND OF SEVERE ELEVATED
STORMS PRODUCED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS A VERY
STRONG PROGRESSIVE DOWN BURST WITH ONE SUPERCELL ALONG HIGHWAY 20
IN STEPHENSON COUNTY. THIS DOWN BURST MAY HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...IS WELL
MIXED AND CONTINUES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...MAKING THIS EASILY THE WARMEST DAY IN MANY MONTHS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST...AND ANY FURTHER INCREASE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH
CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
TONIGHT WILL SEE STORMS FIRE INITIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...MUCH LIKE EARLIER TODAY. THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD IMPACT OUR FAR NORTHWEST
THROUGH 7 PM. EITHER WAY...IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE. BY LATER IN THE
EVENING...A COLD POOL SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
FRONT...ALLOWING STORMS TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH AS A LINE OR BROKEN
LINE. AT THAT TIME...THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIND...BEFORE
THE LINE STALLS OR RUNS INTO A MORE STOUT CAP/EML STILL PRESENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WHERE EVER THIS OCCURS...THE LINE SHOULD STALL OR
AT LEAST SLOW FOR A POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING/TRAINING STORMS.
THUS...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS NORTHWEST...AS IS
POPS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING IS
JUXTAPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST...OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES EVOLVE...WE CAN GREATLY REFINE
THIS DUAL THREAT. RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH OVER 1
INCH WHERE STORMS LAY OUT VERY LIKELY.
SUNDAY...THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE
MORNING...FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
STRONGER UPPER DIFLUENCE IS FORECAST...BUT LESSER CAPE.
THUS...EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT RAIN RATES OVER 0.5 PER HOUR AT TIMES. WITH STRONG FORCING
ALL DAY...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. IF WE WERE NOT IN DROUGHT...WITH UNFROZEN
GROUND...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY FLASH FLOOD RISK...BUT THAT IS NOT
THE CASE. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND
RIVER FLOODING...IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING SO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE OVERALL
FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS COLDER AIR STARTS GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS HOW FAST DOES THE COLD AIR ARRIVE.
BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED A MIX SHOULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE MONDAY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WARMER GROUND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.
AS MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES...SOLAR INSOLATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS GOES FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND WHERE IT TRACKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRISK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH MID
EVENING...THEN EXPECT SCTRD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...CID AND DBQ AFTER 02Z-03Z...MLI AND BRL
POSSIBLY NOT TIL AFTER 05Z-06Z. HAIL AND SUDDEN VARIABLE STRONG
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM FROM MID EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 10-15KTS BEHIND PASSING STORM CLUSTER AT DBQ AND CID....BRL AND
MLI MAY STAY ON EAST SIDE OF FRONT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CLOUD DECKS POST-
FRONTALLY AS WELL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
VSBY REDUCTION LATE DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. THEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD IL ON SUNDAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACRS ALL TERMINALS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS INTENSE DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
RAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
BASED ON CLOUD/RADAR TRENDS AND WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED INTERNALLY
BY TRENDS FROM THE RAP ETC...A MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OR WEST/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TOWARD KEBS.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF NEW CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO
DEVELOP/PUSH CONVECTION VERY SLOWLY INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
WEST OF KDBQ BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
AFTER 7 PM...IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES AND THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A VERY PRONOUNCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM SIOUX CITY
IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS OF 2 PM. THIS FRONT HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ON ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...AND WILL BE AGAIN
THE FOCUS IN A FEW HOURS. THE MORNING ROUND OF SEVERE ELEVATED
STORMS PRODUCED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS A VERY
STRONG PROGRESSIVE DOWN BURST WITH ONE SUPERCELL ALONG HIGHWAY 20
IN STEPHENSON COUNTY. THIS DOWN BURST MAY HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...IS WELL
MIXED AND CONTINUES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...MAKING THIS EASILY THE WARMEST DAY IN MANY MONTHS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST...AND ANY FURTHER INCREASE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH
CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
TONIGHT WILL SEE STORMS FIRE INITIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...MUCH LIKE EARLIER TODAY. THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD IMPACT OUR FAR NORTHWEST
THROUGH 7 PM. EITHER WAY...IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE. BY LATER IN THE
EVENING...A COLD POOL SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
FRONT...ALLOWING STORMS TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH AS A LINE OR BROKEN
LINE. AT THAT TIME...THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIND...BEFORE
THE LINE STALLS OR RUNS INTO A MORE STOUT CAP/EML STILL PRESENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WHERE EVER THIS OCCURS...THE LINE SHOULD STALL OR
AT LEAST SLOW FOR A POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING/TRAINING STORMS.
THUS...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS NORTHWEST...AS IS
POPS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING IS
JUXTAPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST...OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES EVOLVE...WE CAN GREATLY REFINE
THIS DUAL THREAT. RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH OVER 1
INCH WHERE STORMS LAY OUT VERY LIKELY.
SUNDAY...THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE
MORNING...FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
STRONGER UPPER DIFLUENCE IS FORECAST...BUT LESSER CAPE.
THUS...EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT RAIN RATES OVER 0.5 PER HOUR AT TIMES. WITH STRONG FORCING
ALL DAY...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. IF WE WERE NOT IN DROUGHT...WITH UNFROZEN
GROUND...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY FLASH FLOOD RISK...BUT THAT IS NOT
THE CASE. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND
RIVER FLOODING...IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING SO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE OVERALL
FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS COLDER AIR STARTS GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS HOW FAST DOES THE COLD AIR ARRIVE.
BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED A MIX SHOULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE MONDAY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WARMER GROUND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.
AS MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES...SOLAR INSOLATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS GOES FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND WHERE IT TRACKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRISK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH MID
EVENING...THEN EXPECT SCTRD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...CID AND DBQ AFTER 02Z-03Z...MLI AND BRL
POSSIBLY NOT TIL AFTER 05Z-06Z. HAIL AND SUDDEN VARIABLE STRONG
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM FROM MID EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 10-15KTS BEHIND PASSING STORM CLUSTER AT DBQ AND CID....BRL AND
MLI MAY STAY ON EAST SIDE OF FRONT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CLOUD DECKS POST-
FRONTALLY AS WELL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOEM
VSBY REDUCTION LATE DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. THEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD IL ON SUNDAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACRS ALL TERMINALS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS INTENSE DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
RAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
758 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
UPDATED TO ADJUST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT POPS TIED CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH MEANT REMOVING THEM FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND ALL OF SE KS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BUILDING IN
SOME CAPPING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE 17Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
12.15Z RAP FORECAST OF THESE FIELDS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING OVER 25 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. THE 15Z
HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...AS DOES THE 12.12Z WRF-NMM. THIS IS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. AT THAT TIME...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS IS ALSO THE
BEST TIME FOR A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
HAVE COME DOWN BY THEN...JUST NOT SURE THEY WILL HAVE COME DOWN
ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
WE ARE LOOKING AT DISCREET SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. BELIEVE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE HIGH GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANVIL SEEDING AND THE 0-10KM SHEAR
IS GREATER THAN 90 KNOTS. THINK THAT BASEBALL HAIL OR LARGER AS A
MAX HAIL SIZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...SLOWLY ADVANCING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS IT
PASSES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTS WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BY SUNDAY AT 18Z...THE FRONT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM
EMPORIA TO WINFIELD. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS
WILL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS. FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS...WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A RAPID DEVELOP OF STORMS...WITH STORMS BEING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR FASHION. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.
AS SAID EARLIER...AS THE FRONT EXITS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE
IN. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THE WIND COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY NIGHT IN LINE FOR
A REASONABLE FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO. WITH ALL THE COMPLEX WEATHER
GOING ON AHEAD OF THIS THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATTER SHIFTS TO
CONTEMPLATE.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO POSITION...STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DANGEROUS
DAY FOR FIRES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE GULF OPENS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
RATHER STRONG AND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING AND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT ON SUN.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH KSLN AND KHUT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE A
STORM. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FEATURE REACHING KRSL AROUND 15Z AND KICT AROUND
23Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AT SPEEDS
SUSTAINED IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40. MVFR CIGS
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KS ON SUN AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. KCNU WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO EXPERIENCE
THESE STORMS WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
LAWSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE NEXT REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR GRASSLAND WILL NOT BE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
THAT SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SPURN MORE GROWTH OF GRASSES...AS WE
TREND TOWARD LESSER CURING.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 76 34 45 / 10 60 50 50
HUTCHINSON 62 69 31 45 / 20 60 60 40
NEWTON 64 74 31 43 / 20 70 50 50
ELDORADO 65 75 33 44 / 10 80 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 77 35 45 / 10 80 40 50
RUSSELL 56 56 28 45 / 20 70 70 20
GREAT BEND 56 58 28 44 / 20 60 70 30
SALINA 60 64 31 46 / 30 60 70 30
MCPHERSON 61 67 30 44 / 30 60 60 40
COFFEYVILLE 65 74 39 45 / 10 60 90 40
CHANUTE 64 73 37 44 / 10 60 80 40
IOLA 64 72 36 44 / 20 70 80 40
PARSONS-KPPF 65 74 38 45 / 10 70 80 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
650 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS THROUGH 18Z SHOWS A DEEPENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A SECOND DEEPENING DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP INTO
WESTERN IOWA. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM KDDC TO EAST OF KHHF...AND
IT APPEARS TO HAVE JUST GONE THROUGH KGAG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING RISEN TO AROUND 60
DURING THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME...BUT 18Z DATA SHOWING SOME DRYING OUT FROM
MIXING.
COOK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE 17Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
12.15Z RAP FORECAST OF THESE FIELDS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING OVER 25 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. THE 15Z
HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...AS DOES THE 12.12Z WRF-NMM. THIS IS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. AT THAT TIME...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS IS ALSO THE
BEST TIME FOR A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
HAVE COME DOWN BY THEN...JUST NOT SURE THEY WILL HAVE COME DOWN
ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
WE ARE LOOKING AT DISCREET SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. BELIEVE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE HIGH GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANVIL SEEDING AND THE 0-10KM SHEAR
IS GREATER THAN 90 KNOTS. THINK THAT BASEBALL HAIL OR LARGER AS A
MAX HAIL SIZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...SLOWLY ADVANCING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS IT
PASSES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTS WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BY SUNDAY AT 18Z...THE FRONT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM
EMPORIA TO WINFIELD. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS
WILL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS. FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS...WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A RAPID DEVELOP OF STORMS...WITH STORMS BEING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR FASHION. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.
AS SAID EARLIER...AS THE FRONT EXITS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE
IN. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THE WIND COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY NIGHT IN LINE FOR
A REASONABLE FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO. WITH ALL THE COMPLEX WEATHER
GOING ON AHEAD OF THIS THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATTER SHIFTS TO
CONTEMPLATE.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO POSITION...STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DANGEROUS
DAY FOR FIRES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE GULF OPENS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
RATHER STRONG AND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING AND THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT ON SUN.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH KSLN AND KHUT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE A
STORM. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FEATURE REACHING KRSL AROUND 15Z AND KICT AROUND
23Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AT SPEEDS
SUSTAINED IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40. MVFR CIGS
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KS ON SUN AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. KCNU WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO EXPERIENCE
THESE STORMS WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
LAWSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE NEXT REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR GRASSLAND WILL NOT BE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
THAT SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SPURN MORE GROWTH OF GRASSES...AS WE
TREND TOWARD LESSER CURING.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 76 34 45 / 20 60 50 50
HUTCHINSON 62 69 31 45 / 30 60 60 40
NEWTON 64 74 31 43 / 30 70 50 50
ELDORADO 65 75 33 44 / 20 80 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 77 35 45 / 20 80 40 50
RUSSELL 56 56 28 45 / 30 70 70 20
GREAT BEND 56 58 28 44 / 30 60 70 30
SALINA 60 64 31 46 / 40 60 70 30
MCPHERSON 61 67 30 44 / 40 60 60 40
COFFEYVILLE 65 74 39 45 / 20 60 90 40
CHANUTE 64 73 37 44 / 20 60 80 40
IOLA 64 72 36 44 / 20 70 80 40
PARSONS-KPPF 65 74 38 45 / 20 70 80 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SUDDEN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SEEING SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SO ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST TRENDS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION OUT TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN KY THAT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO GENERATE ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW AM NOT BUYING INTO NEW CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH CURRENT FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. BUT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST IS MAKING A BEE LINE STRAIGHT EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. WILL BE LOOKING OVER TRENDS A BIT MORE
CAREFULLY. SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE IN THE MAKING WITHIN
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH DUSK BEFORE LIGHTENING UP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ENGAGE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH DUSK BEFORE LIGHTENING UP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ENGAGE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLOWED TO A CRAWL WITH THEIR
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY INITIATING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS NOW DWINDLING MORE RAPIDLY
NOW...AS AN 850 MB JET RELAXES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS. THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO GEN
UP SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THESE MAY BRUSH
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND THIS WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH
HARDLY ANY PUSH BEHIND IT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
CLOSER TO I-64...WHERE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE I-64 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BLUEGRASS...AND THEN TAPERED THESE BACK TO
SCATTERED AS THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND BREAK UP MORE AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST...AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. THINNER CLOUD COVER OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
INSTABILITY...SO A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SOME
RESIDUAL FORCING FROM IT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW POP UPS IN THE SOUTH...SO
MAINLY JUST DELAYED THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER FOR NOW. ALSO FRESHENED
UP THE REST OF THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
JIVE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KY.
THE 6Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY POINTED
TOWARD LESS COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A SME TO JKL TO SJS LINE.
WE HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY IN ALL AREA FOR TODAY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH DUSK BEFORE LIGHTENING UP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ENGAGE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE I-64 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BLUEGRASS...AND THEN TAPERED THESE BACK TO
SCATTERED AS THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND BREAK UP MORE AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST...AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. THINNER CLOUD COVER OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
INSTABILITY...SO A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SOME
RESIDUAL FORCING FROM IT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW POP UPS IN THE SOUTH...SO
MAINLY JUST DELAYED THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER FOR NOW. ALSO FRESHENED
UP THE REST OF THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
JIVE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KY.
THE 6Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY POINTED
TOWARD LESS COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A SME TO JKL TO SJS LINE.
WE HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY IN ALL AREA FOR TODAY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z.
OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 3Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE 21Z TO 3Z
PERIOD...THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW CONTINUED WITH VCSH AND NO
MENTION OF THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
A BIT AROUND OR AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
729 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KY.
THE 6Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY POINTED
TOWARD LESS COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A SME TO JKL TO SJS LINE.
WE HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY IN ALL AREA FOR TODAY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z.
OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 3Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE 21Z TO 3Z
PERIOD...THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW CONTINUED WITH VCSH AND NO
MENTION OF THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
A BIT AROUND OR AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND
PROBABLY THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LOCATIONS SLOWER TO
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z. OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 0Z PERIOD...
THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW WENT WITH VCSH AND NO MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE A BIT AROUND OR
AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
245 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT HRRR TRENDS SUPPORT SHOWERS GENERALLY
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE OH RIVER OR
EVEN NORTH OF THERE. CHANCES INCREASE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY
CORRIDOR DURING FRI MORNING. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000
FEET WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND KY MESONET SITES AT FLATWOODS
IN PIKE COUNTY AND BLACK MOUNTAIN IN PIKE COUNTY HAVE BEEN ABOUT
15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH ON AVERAGE...THOUGH
BLACK MTN HAS HAD A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH.
POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE AND
21Z SREF THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TRIM POPS BACK TONIGHT. ATTM BULK OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST IS POST FRONTAL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF OF
THE FRONT...IN LINE WITH CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WITH DELAY OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT POPS DECIDED TO REMOVE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
TONIGHT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL/IN IS
CURRENTLY POST FRONTAL AS WELL. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE INCOMING 0Z
NAM12 SUPPORTS THIS LINE OF THOUGHT...WITH BEST INSTABILITY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE....15Z AT EARLIEST IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. HAD TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH EVEN TEMPS IN OUR TYPICALLY COOLER EASTERN
VALLEYS ARE HOLDING UP WELL DUE TO A STEADY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND
AND GOOD MIXING. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED LOWS ARE
WITHIN REACH AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD EVENTUALLY SET UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
LATEST THOUGHTS. ZONES HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF WITH LARGEST RECOVERY OF DEW
POINTS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ATTM. CONSEQUENTLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NO LONGER BEING MET. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWER TO RECOVER ALONG THE RIDGES. DECISION WAS TO LET THE RFW
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF MID WEST AND
SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE OHIO RIVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
POST FRONTAL ATTM. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING JUST A BIT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAWN...AFFECTING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD FROM THERE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...APPEARS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH OUR AREA...BUT INSTEAD
STALLS OUT BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH SATURDAY. UPDATED FORECAST
GRIDS TO BLEND INTO LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL FRESHEN UP ZONE WORDING WITH NEXT
SCHEDULED UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THE NAM12 WAS SORT OF THE
OUTLIER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS...ECMWF...SREF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
HAD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SREF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WERE PREFERRED AS THEY SEEMED TO BEST DEPICT THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER SIMILAR MODELS AND GOOD
INITIALIZATION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS IT WAS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HPC
6 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INITIATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES LOOKED PRETTY
GOOD...DECIDED TO TWEAK THOSE TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROWS HIGHS AS THOSE NUMBERS SEEMED MORE REASONABLE
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ALREADY TODAY. WINDS WERE DERIVED
FROM THE NORMALLY RELIABLE SREF MODEL OUTPUT. GRADUALLY RELAXED WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AS GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE
ONCE THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING GO AWAY. WILL LIKELY SEE
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING A BIT LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY THAN THEY WERE
TODAY. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT NOT BEING VERY WELL
DEFINED...TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
AROUND 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
MODELS AGREE ON AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS AND EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THE PATTERN WILL THEN DAMPEN A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING...SO
WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL START OUT MILD...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...THREATENING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS. DRY
WEATHER THEN ENSUES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIKELY RAINFALL...WITH SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EXIT OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKING MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SUGGESTING SOME SNOW AT LEAST ACROSS
OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE 30S...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
IN SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE
60S FOR THURSDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND
PROBABLY THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LOCATIONS SLOWER TO
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z. OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 0Z PERIOD...
THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW WENT WITH VCSH AND NO MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE A BIT AROUND OR
AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1245 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Narrowed the area of higher pops for overnight and Friday, as a weak
frontal boundary creeps toward us from the northwest. By daybreak,
have a narrow zone of isentropic lift along this front along with
some weak forcing aloft. Also, latest HRRR actually diminishes the
line because of that weakening support. Given that we will have a
pool of moisture and a low-level jet over the north overnight, will
keep pops generally in the scattered range north of a Leitchfield to
Georgetown line in KY. Also kept in the isolated thunder wording,
given some elevated instability.
We got pretty warm today, and steady winds this evening in a tight
pressure gradient field ahead of the front slow but steady fall in
temperatures. Forecast lows still look good, and main change with
this package was that mentioned above.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
A cold front currently stretched from the Great Lakes southwestward
through Illinois and Missouri continues to approach the Ohio Valley.
We are squeezed between this front and high pressure to our
southeast, which has strengthened the pressure gradient. Winds will
continue to be gusty this afternoon and early evening, with
sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts approaching
40 mph. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the other concern
with these winds is an enhanced fire danger. Relative humidity
values have dropped into the middle 20s to middle 30s this
afternoon, as area-wide temperatures have reach the lower to middle
70s as of this writing.
The cold front to our northwest will slide into southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky tonight and continue a slow southward progression
through the day Friday. Scattered to numerous showers will develop
along this front during the evening hours across our northern
counties and slide southward overnight and through the day Friday
coincident with the front. Some elevated instability is noticeable
every now and then in the sounding profile, so will continue to
mention isolated thunderstorm chances. Showers will taper off from
west to east Friday evening as the deeper moisture exits with the
upper forcing, though low clouds should stick around overnight.
As for temperatures, they will remain mild tonight, only dropping
into the middle 50s. Expect highs Friday to be a bit cooler than
today, topping out in the middle 60s across the north to lower 70s
across our south. Low temperatures Friday night should be around the
50 degree mark.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Saturday through Monday Night...
Surface frontal boundary looks to drop southward into Tennessee
Saturday morning and then wash out. The remnants of the front look
to move back through the region during the afternoon hours on
Saturday with the boundary surging northward late Saturday night.
All of the available deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests
that some light showers could still pop up during the afternoon.
Overall, moisture in the column and lack of a clear forcing feature
suggest that only very isolated showers would be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours. We do expect a Cu field to develop
during the afternoon and this looks to dissipate after sunset.
Saturday will be a mild day across the Ohio Valley with afternoon
readings in the 72 to 77 degree range. Lows Saturday night will not
drop off much...only into the mid 50s in the east and upper 50s in
the west.
By Sunday, an upper trough over the western CONUS will start to
migrate eastward into the Plains. A lee side cyclogenesis event
will take place with a surface low developing over the Red River
area early Sunday. This feature will rapidly move northeastward on
Sunday and move into the southern Great Lakes by Monday afternoon.
As this occurs, this feature will drag a surface cold front through
the region. At this time, the latest data suggests that Sunday
will be rather dry and warm across the forecast area. Atmospheric
soundings show a bit of capping during the afternoon that should
preclude convection developing. Best chances of any afternoon
convection would be across our far NW sections. Better chances of
precipitation will be later Sunday night as the actual frontal
boundary closes in on the region. Very high chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Monday night as the frontal
boundary crosses the region.
Highs Sunday look to be the warmest during the forecast period with
highs of 75 to 80 degrees likely. Lows Sunday night will only drop
into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Monday in the
pre-frontal airmass will warm into the mid-upper 60s with lows
falling into the middle 30s by early Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Surface cold front will slowly work eastward and away from the
region on Tuesday. The actual speed of the front may be a little
slower than previously thought due to a wave of low pressure moving
along the frontal boundary. This may keep clouds in our eastern
sections a little longer on Tuesday...delaying clearing and
resulting in slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Generally have
gone with the 00Z Euro Ensemble and 12Z OP Euro deterministic runs
here...given the slightly progressive bias of the GFS. Highs
Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 40s to around 50 in the
north with lower 50s in the south. Clearing should take place
Tuesday night which should for decent radiational cooling to
commence. This will likely lead to our first spring frost/freeze of
the season. Lows Tuesday night will cool into the lower 30s with
the coldest readings over our southern Indiana and northern
Bluegrass regions. At this time, we feel that the threat of a hard
freeze is very low...but frost certainly looks like a good bet.
Upper level and surface ridge axis will move through the region on
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry conditions. Highs on
Wednesday look to top out in the upper 50s with highs in the
lower-middle 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows through the period
will remain below normal with readings generally cooling upper 30s
to the lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Recent AMDAR soundings support model progs of a low level jet early
this morning in the vicinity of an inversion around 2000 feet. LLWS
was carried in the previous TAF package and will continue in this
forecast as well, with WSW winds of 40-45kt near 2K` and SW winds of
8-13kt at the surface.
A dying cold front is approaching from the north. There will be
about a 10-hour window of scattered showers today as this front
moves into central Kentucky and just about washes out. A few
thunderstorms will be possible, especially this afternoon at BWG.
Because the front is so weak, not much of a wind shift is associated
with it.
Will keep TAFs prevailing VFR. There have been a few MVFR ceilings
upstream overnight in the heavier showers, but the threat for MVFR
ceilings/vsbys in central Kentucky is low enough that it can be
omitted from the TAFs for now.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
117 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE AREA WILL ENTER INTO A WET PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN LASTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
TWO ITEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE AFFECTS OF THE
SHORTWAVE PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST AND HOW WARM WE GET IN THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE...ITS CURRENT POSITION CAN BE SEEN EASILY
IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN/WI. SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WITH QUITE A FEW SITES PICKING UP SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A HUNDREDTH TO AROUND A TENTH IN
SPOTS. SOME LIGHTNING AS ALSO BEEN NOTED. FEEL THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE POINTS NEAR LUDINGTON AND PENTWATER TOWARDS 400 PM. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AT THIS POINT LEAVING OUT THUNDER GIVEN
HOW DRY WE ARE ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SURFACE RH VALUES ARE
DROPPING FROM 30 PCT TO 20 PCT AT THIS TIME. SO...IN GENERAL
PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR THE POINTS
TOWARDS EVENING. HRRR IS SHOWING SOME DECENT SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY IN THE AREA TOWARDS 00Z. GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA SHOWERS ARE COMPLETELY IN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITIES.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT MID 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GO A BIT WARMER EVEN IF WE GO SUPER
ADIABATIC DOWN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FROM THE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN PERIOD /AND
BEYOND/. NO REAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION THAT WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD NOW FOR DAYS.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF THE
FCST INTO SAT MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC IS IN PLACE RESULTING
FROM SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER
WAVE NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER MOVES EAST. THIS WAVE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL FOR THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE WAVE
HAS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT NOW...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR MASS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THE CHCS OF
MEASURABLE PCPN UP NORTH ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE INITIAL LACK OF
MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. ANY RAIN CHCS SHOULD END JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
WE WILL SEE THE RAIN SHOWER CHCS INCREASE THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SAT. THE FRONT THAT WILL SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL MAKE A RUN BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WAVE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND RESULT IN BETTER INFLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS IN FROM
THE WEST JUST AFTER 18Z ON SAT AND IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWFA. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY ON SAT WELL INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN TOO MUCH AND RAIN STARTS
FALLING.
THE SET UP FOR THE WET PERIOD THEN REALLY STARTS TAKING SHAPE SAT
NIGHT AND MORE SO ON SUN. THE SAT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH...HOWEVER
AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHIFTS THE UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF A SW
FLOW...AND IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. WE WILL THEN SEE
WAVES BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. VERY
MOIST AIR /PWATS OF AROUND 1-1.33 INCHES/ SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AS COLD
AIR IS ALSO DRAWN FROM THE NORTH.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH A LITTLE SUN MORNING BEHIND
THE SAT WAVE...BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS INTO PLAY FOR THE SRN
AREAS. THIS WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER ON
SUN.
THUNDER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR BEING ADVECTED IN ON A 40-50M KNOT LLJ. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
PORTION OF THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FAIRLY WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT /40-50 KNOTS/
TO HELP THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZING SOME STORMS WITH THE UPPER JET
NEARBY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD AS THE
MAIN/FINAL WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH A FEW TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN
CWFA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING... AND RIVER FLOODING COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS AND HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STORM TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN.
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES VERY CHALLENGING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHARPENS ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND COLD DRY
AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTH. SFC TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NEAR JXN IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE
LOWER 30S AT LUDINGTON WHICH SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN THE COLD AIR ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE NW CWFA LATE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR
FLOWS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S
BY THE END OF THE DAY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
BEFORE ENDING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOOKING RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW
DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT. MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD NOON...BUT VFR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
UNTIL THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER
THUS FAR THIS SPRING ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE RAINS START TO MOVE
IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...AND
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...MIN RH/S
LOOK TO STAY UP SOME AROUND 30 PCT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE END
UP DRIER THAN EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN...AND THE FIRE
DANGER ENDS UP A LITTLE HIGHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT INTO MON. INCREASED RISK FOR GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
COUPLE OF INGREDIENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
CAUSE HYDRO IMPACTS. THEY INCLUDE A SLOW MOVING FRONT...IT WILL
CONTAIN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. THIS OPENS
UP THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS REPEATING OVER THE SAME
AREA. IN ADDITION THE RIVER LEVELS ARE ELEVATED AND THE GROUND IS
MOIST. OVERALL FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED WHETHER THESE
ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA.
SMALL STREAMS WOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST...POSSIBLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE LARGER RIVERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...RIVERS GENERALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. THE RAINFALL FOR
TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS
UP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1201 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE AREA WILL ENTER INTO A WET PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN LASTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
TWO ITEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE AFFECTS OF THE
SHORTWAVE PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST AND HOW WARM WE GET IN THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE...ITS CURRENT POSITION CAN BE SEEN EASILY
IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN/WI. SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WITH QUITE A FEW SITES PICKING UP SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A HUNDRETH TO AROUND A TENTH IN
SPOTS. SOME LIGHTNING AS ALSO BEEN NOTED. FEEL THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE POINTS NEAR LUDINGTON AND PENTWATER TOWARDS 400 PM. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AT THIS POINT LEAVING OUT THUNDER GIVEN
HOW DRY WE ARE ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SURFACE RH VALUES ARE
DROPPING FROM 30 PCT TO 20 PCT AT THIS TIME. SO...IN GENERAL
PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR THE POINTS
TOWARDS EVENING. HRRR IS SHOWING SOME DECENT SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY IN THE AREA TOWARDS 00Z. GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA SHOWERS ARE COMPLETELY IN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITIES.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT MID 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GO A BIT WARMER EVEN IF WE GO SUPER
ADIABATIC DOWN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FROM THE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN PERIOD /AND
BEYOND/. NO REAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION THAT WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD NOW FOR DAYS.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF THE
FCST INTO SAT MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC IS IN PLACE RESULTING
FROM SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER
WAVE NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER MOVES EAST. THIS WAVE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL FOR THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE WAVE
HAS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT NOW...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR MASS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THE CHCS OF
MEASURABLE PCPN UP NORTH ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE INITIAL LACK OF
MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. ANY RAIN CHCS SHOULD END JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
WE WILL SEE THE RAIN SHOWER CHCS INCREASE THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SAT. THE FRONT THAT WILL SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL MAKE A RUN BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WAVE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND RESULT IN BETTER INFLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS IN FROM
THE WEST JUST AFTER 18Z ON SAT AND IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWFA. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY ON SAT WELL INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN TOO MUCH AND RAIN STARTS
FALLING.
THE SET UP FOR THE WET PERIOD THEN REALLY STARTS TAKING SHAPE SAT
NIGHT AND MORE SO ON SUN. THE SAT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH...HOWEVER
AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHIFTS THE UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF A SW
FLOW...AND IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. WE WILL THEN SEE
WAVES BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. VERY
MOIST AIR /PWATS OF AROUND 1-1.33 INCHES/ SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AS COLD
AIR IS ALSO DRAWN FROM THE NORTH.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH A LITTLE SUN MORNING BEHIND
THE SAT WAVE...BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS INTO PLAY FOR THE SRN
AREAS. THIS WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER ON
SUN.
THUNDER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR BEING ADVECTED IN ON A 40-50M KNOT LLJ. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
PORTION OF THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FAIRLY WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT /40-50 KNOTS/
TO HELP THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZING SOME STORMS WITH THE UPPER JET
NEARBY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD AS THE
MAIN/FINAL WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH A FEW TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN
CWFA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING... AND RIVER FLOODING COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS AND HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STORM TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN.
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES VERY CHALLENGING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHARPENS ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND COLD DRY
AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTH. SFC TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NEAR JXN IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE
LOWER 30S AT LUDINGTON WHICH SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN THE COLD AIR ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE NW CWFA LATE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR
FLOWS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S
BY THE END OF THE DAY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
BEFORE ENDING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOOKING RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW
DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT. MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH CLOUDS BASES MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER
THUS FAR THIS SPRING ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE RAINS START TO MOVE
IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...AND
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...MIN RH/S
LOOK TO STAY UP SOME AROUND 30 PCT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE END
UP DRIER THAN EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN...AND THE FIRE
DANGER ENDS UP A LITTLE HIGHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT INTO MON. INCREASED RISK FOR GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
COUPLE OF INGREDIENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
CAUSE HYDRO IMPACTS. THEY INCLUDE A SLOW MOVING FRONT...IT WILL
CONTAIN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. THIS OPENS
UP THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS REPEATING OVER THE SAME
AREA. IN ADDITION THE RIVER LEVELS ARE ELEVATED AND THE GROUND IS
MOIST. OVERALL FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED WHETHER THESE
ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA.
SMALL STREAMS WOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST...POSSIBLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE LARGER RIVERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...RIVERS GENERALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. THE RAINFALL FOR
TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS
UP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
154 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
HINDERED BY PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOME RAIN IS MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE...BUT MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR THIS
MORNING IS VIRGA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES REPORTING VERY LIGHT
RAIN. THE VIRGA/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED YESTERDAYS HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE VERY
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EVIDENT AT 850H ON THE RAP THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. BOTH FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMING AND
EXPANDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 100+ KT JET STREAK TO THE
NE OF THE FA PLACES US SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL POKE INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS JET SUPPLY THIS AREA WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE
OCCURRING PROVIDING STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET INDICATES STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THESE AREAS AFTER 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. THE NAM INDICATED A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION...PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURRING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE QUICKLY OVERCOME IN THIS
CASE. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE DO
PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER 09Z...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN POINTS:
1) PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
2) THERE ARE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE QPF
AXIS ON SUNDAY.
3) THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS NOW GOING COLDER
WITH TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
NOW THAT WE`RE 24-36 HOURS OUT FROM THE RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY...IT`S NO SURPRISE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM...WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE 800-600MB FGEN.
THE NAM THEREFORE HAS MORE WARMTH FARTHER NORTH AND THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP
MORE RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN. TRENDS IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION SUGGEST WESTERN MN...ESPECIALLY SW
MN COULD MISS OUT ON A LOT OF THE PRECIP WITH DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN MN. FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 0.10"-0.40" EVENT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING WHERE THERE IS EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THAT
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND BEST LI
NEAR 0. WE TRIED TO REMAIN STEADFAST IN KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AFTER
THE RAIN CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...WE ARE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN A
MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THAN WE WERE A DAY OR TWO AGO.
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS IA...FAR SOUTHEAST MN AND
WI. THIS WILL BE MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF
BEING FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE 11.00/06 NAM SEEMS TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND THE TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER HASN`T BEEN GREAT FOR
THE NAM OUTSIDE OF IT`S 0-24HR FORECAST. WE SIDED WITH MORE OF A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND AND UNLESS WE SEE THESE THREE MODELING SYSTEMS
TREND ANOTHER 100-150 MILES NORTH...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY /CLOUDY/
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 3-4 CYCLES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET.
SO...JUST AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR
NORMAL...WE SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR
HIGHS. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...ANOTHER NEAR ZERO NIGHT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN MN TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY TRICKY THRU THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE DAY
TDA. HAVE SEEN WINDS ALL OVER THE COMPASS WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT THRU
NOON...DUE TO A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED AND WOBBLING ACRS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MN. WITH THIS BOUNDARY DISSIPATING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE E...WINDS ARE FINALLY GOING TO NW WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS HAS ALSO
ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCRS FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND STEADILY
LOWER. INTERMITTENT SHWRS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER...NOTHING THAT WOULD REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDS. STEADIER -RA WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACRS THE COVERAGE
AREA DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS...WITH SOME HEAVIER RAIN ARND DAYBREAK
AND THESE SHWRS MAY DROP CONDS INTO MVFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...PRECIP
INTENSITY WILL GENERALLY LESSEN...AND EVEN END ALTOGETHER...FOR
THE MN SITES WHILE THE WI SITES WILL LIKELY SEE -RA THRU MIDDAY
SAT. IN THE MORE PERSISTENT SHWRS IS WHERE CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE
CAN BE EXPECTED.
KMSP...WINDS HAVE FINALLY SWITCHED TO NW SHORTLY AFTER
INITIALIZATION TIME SO HAVE OPTED TO DO A QUICK AMD AFTER ISSUING
THE ROUTINE TAF TO INDICATE PREVAILING NW WINDS. AM ALSO SEEING
THE MIDLVL AFTN CU CLOUDS POP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THESE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU SUNSET. GOING INTO THIS EVE...
HIGH STRATUS WILL FILTER IN AND STEADILY LOWER WHILE INCRG IN
COVERAGE TNGT INTO SAT MRNG. SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT -SHRA MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA ARND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE MORE STEADIER RAIN WILL
DEVELOP DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS. NOT EXPECTING PROLONGED DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDS BUT SOME OCNL MVFR PERIODS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING TWD
DAYBREAK. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MIDLVL CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL THIS EVE THEN SWAP TO SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRES. SE TO S WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE SAT MRNG
THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND W LATE TMRW AFTN AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACRS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ025-026-028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
HINDERED BY PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOME RAIN IS MAKING IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR THIS MORNING
IS VIRGA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN. THE
VIRGA/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
YESTERDAYS HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE VERY GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EVIDENT AT 850H ON THE RAP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. BOTH FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMING AND
EXPANDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 100+ KT JET STREAK TO THE
NE OF THE FA PLACES US SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL POKE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS JET SUPPLY THIS AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING
PROVIDING STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET INDICATES STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
THESE AREAS AFTER 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE NAM
INDICATED A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION...PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE
QUICKLY OVERCOME IN THIS CASE. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND
WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE DO PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
09Z...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN POINTS:
1) PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
2) THERE ARE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE QPF
AXIS ON SUNDAY.
3) THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS NOW GOING COLDER
WITH TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
NOW THAT WE`RE 24-36 HOURS OUT FROM THE RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY...IT`S NO SURPRISE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM...WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE 800-600MB FGEN.
THE NAM THEREFORE HAS MORE WARMTH FARTHER NORTH AND THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP
MORE RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN. TRENDS IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION SUGGEST WESTERN MN...ESPECIALLY SW
MN COULD MISS OUT ON A LOT OF THE PRECIP WITH DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN MN. FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 0.10"-0.40" EVENT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING WHERE THERE IS EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THAT
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND BEST LI
NEAR 0. WE TRIED TO REMAIN STEADFAST IN KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AFTER
THE RAIN CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...WE ARE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN
A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THAN WE WERE A DAY OR TWO AGO.
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS IA...FAR SOUTHEAST MN AND
WI. THIS WILL BE MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF
BEING FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE 11.00/06 NAM SEEMS TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND THE TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER HASN`T BEEN GREAT FOR
THE NAM OUTSIDE OF IT`S 0-24HR FORECAST. WE SIDED WITH MORE OF A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND AND UNLESS WE SEE THESE THREE MODELING SYSTEMS
TREND ANOTHER 100-150 MILES NORTH...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY /CLOUDY/ FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 3-4 CYCLES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET.
SO...JUST AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR
NORMAL...WE SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR
HIGHS. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...ANOTHER NEAR ZERO NIGHT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN MN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
DEPART AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BOARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PACKAGE. DID INTRODUCE
EITHER VCSH OR -SHRA AT ALL SITES EXCEPT EAU...BECAUSE IT WILL NOT
REACH EAU UNTIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WIND FORECAST TODAY IS
TRICKY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING AT SOME SITES.
KMSP...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EVENTUALLY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ALONG
WITH IT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
435 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
HINDERED BY PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOME RAIN IS MAKING IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR THIS MORNING
IS VIRGA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN. THE
VIRGA/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
YESTERDAYS HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE VERY GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EVIDENT AT 850H ON THE RAP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. BOTH FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMING AND
EXPANDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 100+ KT JET STREAK TO THE
NE OF THE FA PLACES US SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL POKE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS JET SUPPLY THIS AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING
PROVIDING STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET INDICATES STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
THESE AREAS AFTER 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE NAM
INDICATED A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION...PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE
QUICKLY OVERCOME IN THIS CASE. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND
WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE DO PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
09Z...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN POINTS:
1) PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
2) THERE ARE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE QPF
AXIS ON SUNDAY.
3) THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS NOW GOING COLDER
WITH TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
NOW THAT WE`RE 24-36 HOURS OUT FROM THE RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY...IT`S NO SURPRISE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM...WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE 800-600MB FGEN.
THE NAM THEREFORE HAS MORE WARMTH FARTHER NORTH AND THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP
MORE RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN. TRENDS IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION SUGGEST WESTERN MN...ESPECIALLY SW
MN COULD MISS OUT ON A LOT OF THE PRECIP WITH DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN MN. FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 0.10"-0.40" EVENT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING WHERE THERE IS EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THAT
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND BEST LI
NEAR 0. WE TRIED TO REMAIN STEADFAST IN KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AFTER
THE RAIN CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...WE ARE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN
A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THAN WE WERE A DAY OR TWO AGO.
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS IA...FAR SOUTHEAST MN AND
WI. THIS WILL BE MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF
BEING FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE 11.00/06 NAM SEEMS TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND THE TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER HASN`T BEEN GREAT FOR
THE NAM OUTSIDE OF IT`S 0-24HR FORECAST. WE SIDED WITH MORE OF A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND AND UNLESS WE SEE THESE THREE MODELING SYSTEMS
TREND ANOTHER 100-150 MILES NORTH...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY /CLOUDY/ FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 3-4 CYCLES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET.
SO...JUST AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR
NORMAL...WE SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR
HIGHS. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...ANOTHER NEAR ZERO NIGHT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN MN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR IMPACT MUCH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
KMSP...VFR. DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT...NO MAJOR
CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
659 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 659 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Convection has developed as anticipated along dryline over central KS
and ahead of an advancing cold front over southwest IA. Storms have
quite a bit of instability to work with, with MLCAPE values above
2000 J/kg across both of these areas including parts of far northwest
MO. Deep-layer shear is only marginally supportive of severe storms
at this time, but will increase as the night goes on so that activity
developing over KS may maintain its severity as it tracks to the
north of STJ later this evening. However, instability will weaken
after dark while CIN will increase, so it`s possible that storms may
weaken before reaching far northeast KS and northwest MO.
Nonetheless, severe chances across that area are high enough that
severe thunderstorm watch 71 has been issued until 2 AM.
Even more in question is the potential for additional storms to
develop after 06Z closer to I-70 near Kansas City as a strengthening
LLJ noses into the region. RAP and NAM both advertise strong
convergence and moisture transport associated with this feature, but
the cap is strong this far south and may keep convection from
developing at all overnight. Will keep a close eye on anything that
could pop up after midnight as any such storms could have the
potential to produce heavy rain and possibly hail.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tonight:
Frontal boundaries will likely be the focus for most of the
convection tonight. A warm front extends from a weak low near OMA
through northern IL. A diffuse area of low pressure over southwest
KS is connected to the OMA low by a very weak cold front.
Strong and gusty southerly winds have pulled up the season`s first
large swath of gulf moisture into KS/MO as noted by 60ish dewpoints
while southwesterly h8 winds spread an elevated mixed layer across
KS and MO resulting in a moderately strong cap.The end result is the
warmest temperatures of the year with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg but
marginal 0-6km shear around 35 kts. Evening convective activity will
likely be closely tied to the IA warm front. Best severe threat will
reside over IA with isolated severe storms possible over northwest
MO mainly this evening. Large hail would be the most likely severe
threat. A h7 shortwave is progged to lift northeast through northern
KS/NE and activate this warm front. Last 4-5 runs of the HRRR has
consistently shown scattered convection popping up along this
boundary around 22z. The convection further south which the HRRR and
RAP develop over east central KS is a bit suspicious as it forms
within the well capped environment with no boundary nearby. Wouldn`t
be surprised if it actually form further west along the dryline over
central KS where some cu has recently formed. Prefer to limit the
evening convection to northwest and north central MO. Also have low
confidence in the NAM and GFS propagating an MCS southward into east
central KS and west central MO by 06Z. Overall, will concentrate
highest PoPs across northern MO and lower them south of the MO River.
Sunday-Sunday night:
A broad upper trough over the desert southwest is expected to lift
northeast on Sunday and enhance the downstream lift via
increasing/expanding upper level diffluence. This in turn will lead
to widespread convection with heavy rains likely. Scattered
convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and this plus
extensive low level cloud cover will make it difficult to realize the
moderate instability the soundings show. Should some breaks occur of
any meaningful length of time then we could tap into this instability
and give a boost to our severe threat. For now strong storms are
possible south of the MO River on Sunday with a minimal severe
threat. The main weather threat will be from heavy rains due to very
efficient deep, tropical-like convection, which could train during
the afternoon and early evening.
The true cold front currently lies form eastern ND through west
central SD which will reinforce the frontal boundary on Sunday. A
second and much deeper northern upper trough will push this front
southeast with strong cold air advection rushing in Sunday night.
Inspection of Bufr soundings suggest the rain could mix with snow
over parts of northwest MO late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night:
A very raw and blustery day with temperatures 20 degrees below
average. While the NAM had previously been discounted as being too
cold and generating several inches of snow the latest GFS and ECMWF
have been trending colder and also generating at least a rain/snow
mix. Started trending colder yesterday and continue doing so today.
Areas of light rain mixed with snow seems plausible if not likely
Monday morning. Will hold off on mentioning any snow amounts for now.
Very cold temperatures will settle in overnight Monday as skies
clear out. Will see sub-freezing temperatures everywhere with many
locations experiencing several hours of temperatures below 28F at
which water freezes inside most plants. Will be issuing headlines
eventually for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tuesday-Saturday
After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will steadily
rebound Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs primarily in the 50s and
60s respectively. Model solutions vary greatly with regards to
timing, amplification/strength, and placement of the next upper
trough to affect the area Thursday or Friday. This provides
relatively high uncertainty to the expected weather during this
period, and likewise the degree of cooler weather to follow upon the
frontal passage. As for temperatures during the period, readings
should remain slightly below climatological normals for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Line of convection developing across cntrl KS will remain north and
west of KC for much of the night. There is a chance that additional
storms could develop closer to MCI around 09Z...but better chances
appear to be just to the north near STJ so thunder was kept out of
the KC terminals for now. Will keep a close eye in case thunder needs
to be added later on.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms likely on Sunday with a cold front
moving into the region. Trends have slowed down the timing of this
front and attendant thunderstorms to the early afternoon hours for
the KC area.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tonight:
Frontal boundaries will likely be the focus for most of the
convection tonight. A warm front extends from a weak low near OMA
through northern IL. A diffuse area of low pressure over southwest
KS is connected to the OMA low by a very weak cold front.
Strong and gusty southerly winds have pulled up the season`s first
large swath of gulf moisture into KS/MO as noted by 60ish dewpoints
while southwesterly h8 winds spread an elevated mixed layer across
KS and MO resulting in a moderately strong cap.The end result is the
warmest temperatures of the year with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg but
marginal 0-6km shear around 35 kts. Evening convective activity will
likely be closely tied to the IA warm front. Best severe threat will
reside over IA with isolated severe storms possible over northwest
MO mainly this evening. Large hail would be the most likely severe
threat. A h7 shortwave is progged to lift northeast through northern
KS/NE and activate this warm front. Last 4-5 runs of the HRRR has
consistently shown scattered convection popping up along this
boundary around 22z. The convection further south which the HRRR and
RAP develop over east central KS is a bit suspicious as it forms
within the well capped environment with no boundary nearby. Wouldn`t
be surprised if it actually form further west along the dryline over
central KS where some cu has recently formed. Prefer to limit the
evening convection to northwest and north central MO. Also have low
confidence in the NAM and GFS propagating an MCS southward into east
central KS and west central MO by 06Z. Overall, will concentrate
highest PoPs across northern MO and lower them south of the MO River.
Sunday-Sunday night:
A broad upper trough over the desert southwest is expected to lift
northeast on Sunday and enhance the downstream lift via
increasing/expanding upper level diffluence. This in turn will lead
to widespread convection with heavy rains likely. Scattered
convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and this plus
extensive low level cloud cover will make it difficult to realize the
moderate instability the soundings show. Should some breaks occur of
any meaningful length of time then we could tap into this instability
and give a boost to our severe threat. For now strong storms are
possible south of the MO River on Sunday with a minimal severe
threat. The main weather threat will be from heavy rains due to very
efficient deep, tropical-like convection, which could train during
the afternoon and early evening.
The true cold front currently lies form eastern ND through west
central SD which will reinforce the frontal boundary on Sunday. A
second and much deeper northern upper trough will push this front
southeast with strong cold air advection rushing in Sunday night.
Inspection of Bufr soundings suggest the rain could mix with snow
over parts of northwest MO late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night:
A very raw and blustery day with temperatures 20 degrees below
average. While the NAM had previously been discounted as being too
cold and generating several inches of snow the latest GFS and ECMWF
have been trending colder and also generating at least a rain/snow
mix. Started trending colder yesterday and continue doing so today.
Areas of light rain mixed with snow seems plausible if not likely
Monday morning. Will hold off on mentioning any snow amounts for now.
Very cold temperatures will settle in overnight Monday as skies
clear out. Will see sub-freezing temperatures everywhere with many
locations experiencing several hours of temperatures below 28F at
which water freezes inside most plants. Will be issuing headlines
eventually for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tuesday-Saturday
After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will steadily
rebound Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs primarily in the 50s and
60s respectively. Model solutions vary greatly with regards to
timing, amplification/strength, and placement of the next upper
trough to affect the area Thursday or Friday. This provides
relatively high uncertainty to the expected weather during this
period, and likewise the degree of cooler weather to follow upon the
frontal passage. As for temperatures during the period, readings
should remain slightly below climatological normals for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Line of convection developing across cntrl KS will remain north and
west of KC for much of the night. There is a chance that additional
storms could develop closer to MCI around 09Z...but better chances
appear to be just to the north near STJ so thunder was kept out of
the KC terminals for now. Will keep a close eye in case thunder needs
to be added later on.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms likely on Sunday with a cold front
moving into the region. Trends have slowed down the timing of this
front and attendant thunderstorms to the early afternoon hours for
the KC area.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
101 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Stationary front is currently across far southern Missouri into
the southern tip of Illinois. Latest run of the RAP shows some
instability developing along the pooling dewpoints this afternoon
right along the front. Think that this area will be the only
location for any isolated storms to form, so have shifted slight
chances to the far southern counties for this afternoon only.
Otherwise temperatures are warming nicely, even with the clouds
and the east winds, so added a degree or two to the highs. This
current batch of mid-high clouds will continue to move quickly
east and should exit the eastern counties by mid-late afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
A stalled cold front which was located south of the CWA at 05z will
lift slightly northward as a warm front later today. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible near the front during
the afternoon hours, mainly across the southern part of the CWA
including the eastern Ozarks. Most areas should remain dry today.
Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
(Saturday-Monday)
Overnight increase of southerly low level flow should allow
frontal boundary to lift back north across the area, placing the
entire CWA in the warm sector no later than midday. MET/MAV MOS is
trying to develop some lower clouds late tonight and then linger
it throughout the day on Saturday, but given what appears to be a
very thin ribbon of stratified low level moisture not certain this
cloudiness will actually develop, and if it does even more dubious
that it would be able to hang around all day. Have gone several
degrees above warmest MOS based on this spring`s trend of guidance
being consistently too cool during warmups, and if there are even
fewer clouds we may need to tack several more degrees onto this.
Saturday night, Sunday, and into Sunday night, attention turns to
increasing thunderstorm chances with strong upper level trof and
associated cold front. I have introduced a slight chance of storms
as early as Saturday afternoon in our far north for the outside
chance of renegade storms, but it would appear that a much better
chance of storms in our northern and western areas would be later
Saturday night as storms that fire along cold front over IA during
the late afternoon and early evening hours slowly work east. All
of the 00z guidance is also consistent in suggesting a secondary
area of convection developing over northwest MO along zone of low
level convergence that will also work east during the predawn hours.
Categorical PoPs will overspread the region from NW to SE on Sunday
and Sunday night as cold front and strong trof work their way into
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A few severe storms or strong line
segments will be possible with convective initiation along the cold
front during the afternoon and early evening as 00z runs are
suggesting MLCAPES 1500-2000 j/kg during max heating along with
30-50kts of deep layer shear. In addition, the ample moisture, slow
system movement, intense baroclinicity and strong dynamics (with
some possible coupling between jet cores in the northern and
southern streams) all suggest widespread rains aoa 1" over the
northwest half of the CWA in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame.
Models have come into much better agreement with timing of front
across the region, and by 12z Monday the strong cold front will
extend from the Missouri Bootheel to extreme southern IL, placing
the entire CWA in the much colder air. This should mean a cold and
blustery Monday, with rain winding down from west to east across the
FA. Temperatures will be nearly steady in our SE counties due to
the strong CAA and rain, and in the west where the rain will end
early only expecting a 5-10 degree rebound from early morning lows.
(Tuesday-Thursday)
Monday`s chilly weather will continue into Tuesday, and right now it
appears that Tuesday Morning`s lows will be in the 30-35 degree
range. It`s difficult to time surface features this far out, but if
00z guidance is correct winds will be too strong for much in the way
of frost, in spite of these chilly readings. Highs will be in the
50s.
Region should then experience a warming trend heading into midweek as
upper trof swings into the East Coast and heights rebound across the
Central CONUS, with highs well in the 60s by Thursday.
With dry air and dynamics remaining well to the north and west of
the CWA don`t foresee any rain threat in the Tuesday-Thursday time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Dry conditions are expected through the period. Low level moisture
will move up into the area late tonight into tomorrow morning
bringing scattered-broken ceilings between 3000-5000 feet.
High pressure will move through the area this afternoon causing
generally light winds. Winds will increase out of the south by
tomorrow morning and become gusty.
Specifics for KSTL: Generally dry and VFR conditions are expected
through the next 36 hours. Only exception may be late tonight
when low VFR clouds move into the area. There is some possibility
that clouds could drop into the high MVFR category between 09-14Z,
though chances are too low to include in the TAF at this time.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1043 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Stationary front is currently across far southern Missouri into
the southern tip of Illinois. Latest run of the RAP shows some
instability developing along the pooling dewpoints this afternoon
right along the front. Think that this area will be the only
location for any isolated storms to form, so have shifted slight
chances to the far southern counties for this afternoon only.
Otherwise temperatures are warming nicely, even with the clouds
and the east winds, so added a degree or two to the highs. This
current batch of mid-high clouds will continue to move quickly
east and should exit the eastern counties by mid-late afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
A stalled cold front which was located south of the CWA at 05z will
lift slightly northward as a warm front later today. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible near the front during
the afternoon hours, mainly across the southern part of the CWA
including the eastern Ozarks. Most areas should remain dry today.
Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
(Saturday-Monday)
Overnight increase of southerly low level flow should allow
frontal boundary to lift back north across the area, placing the
entire CWA in the warm sector no later than midday. MET/MAV MOS is
trying to develop some lower clouds late tonight and then linger
it throughout the day on Saturday, but given what appears to be a
very thin ribbon of stratified low level moisture not certain this
cloudiness will actually develop, and if it does even more dubious
that it would be able to hang around all day. Have gone several
degrees above warmest MOS based on this spring`s trend of guidance
being consistently too cool during warmups, and if there are even
fewer clouds we may need to tack several more degrees onto this.
Saturday night, Sunday, and into Sunday night, attention turns to
increasing thunderstorm chances with strong upper level trof and
associated cold front. I have introduced a slight chance of storms
as early as Saturday afternoon in our far north for the outside
chance of renegade storms, but it would appear that a much better
chance of storms in our northern and western areas would be later
Saturday night as storms that fire along cold front over IA during
the late afternoon and early evening hours slowly work east. All
of the 00z guidance is also consistent in suggesting a secondary
area of convection developing over northwest MO along zone of low
level convergence that will also work east during the predawn hours.
Categorical PoPs will overspread the region from NW to SE on Sunday
and Sunday night as cold front and strong trof work their way into
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A few severe storms or strong line
segments will be possible with convective initiation along the cold
front during the afternoon and early evening as 00z runs are
suggesting MLCAPES 1500-2000 j/kg during max heating along with
30-50kts of deep layer shear. In addition, the ample moisture, slow
system movement, intense baroclinicity and strong dynamics (with
some possible coupling between jet cores in the northern and
southern streams) all suggest widespread rains aoa 1" over the
northwest half of the CWA in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame.
Models have come into much better agreement with timing of front
across the region, and by 12z Monday the strong cold front will
extend from the Missouri Bootheel to extreme southern IL, placing
the entire CWA in the much colder air. This should mean a cold and
blustery Monday, with rain winding down from west to east across the
FA. Temperatures will be nearly steady in our SE counties due to
the strong CAA and rain, and in the west where the rain will end
early only expecting a 5-10 degree rebound from early morning lows.
(Tuesday-Thursday)
Monday`s chilly weather will continue into Tuesday, and right now it
appears that Tuesday Morning`s lows will be in the 30-35 degree
range. It`s difficult to time surface features this far out, but if
00z guidance is correct winds will be too strong for much in the way
of frost, in spite of these chilly readings. Highs will be in the
50s.
Region should then experience a warming trend heading into midweek as
upper trof swings into the East Coast and heights rebound across the
Central CONUS, with highs well in the 60s by Thursday.
With dry air and dynamics remaining well to the north and west of
the CWA don`t foresee any rain threat in the Tuesday-Thursday time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
VFR for at least the first 6-12 hours and probably longer. Some
MVFR stratus is possible at KCOU/KCPS/KSUS tomorrow morning around
daybreak. Winds remain northeast on the cool side of a stalled
frontal boundary, then become southeast to south once the boundary
lifts north.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR for at least the first 6-12 hours and
probably longer. Some MVFR stratus is possible tomorrow morning
around daybreak. Winds remain northeast on the cool side of a
stalled frontal boundary, then become southeast to south once the
boundary lifts north.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 743 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Updated POPs to pull higher POPs further nwd thru this evening
mainly across the ern half of the CWA based on latest mdl guidance
and RADAR trends. Latest RAP/local WRF, and to a lesser extent the
HRRR, suggest main focus of precip will be the 850mb fnt
stretching from just n of KSET to K3LF region. Believe the sfc fnt
will remain capped enuf thru at least the next few hours to
prevent more than CU from forming. However, these mdls do suggest
the fnt may become more active after Midnight tonight. By that
time, the fnt shud be s of the CWA.
Have kept POPs in the chance cat, albeit the high end, as precip
is falling out of a 10 to 12 kft ceiling. Have also reduced TS
coverage to isod as generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE exist
across the region. Will continue to monitor trends thru the
evening and update as the situation changes.
Tilly
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front that is currently near a Springfield, IL to St. Louis to
Jefferson City line will continue to move southeast this evening.
The models show this front slowing down over the southern CWA
tonight. The RAP does show an increase in low level moisture
moisture convergence along and ahead of the front the next few hours
at the same time that the HRRR depicts scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern half of the CWA. Have
maintained chance pops for tonight. MOS lows tonight are in good
agreement and generally followed.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
(Friday - Saturday night)
Cold front is expected to be just south of CWA early Friday morning and
will become quasi-stationary by afternoon. Chance PoPs will be confined to
along/just north of aformentioned boundary for Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler on Friday by about 10 degrees for most locations behind the cold front.
Quasi-stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front Friday
night as lee-side cyclogenesis commences and mid/upper-level heights rise.
Expect Saturday to be mainly dry and kept dry forecast going as very strong
cap is forecast to exist according to NWP model soundings. In addition...
large-scale forcing for ascent looks fairly weak across the area indicating
cap will likely hold.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday night ahead of
approaching cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance as
CWA will remain in warm sector with increasing clouds and south winds
around 10 knots.
(Sunday - Sunday night)
An unsettled and wet period is forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as cold front
moves across the area. Negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject toward
the mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday evening with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected with cold frontal passage. Could also be some
strong thunderstorms through Sunday evening with ~30kts 0-6km shear and
modest instability though higher severe weather threat should exist over
the lower Mississippi Valley where much greater instability will reside.
Temperatures on Sunday look to be quite difficult as degree of cloudiness
and frontal passage timing are a bit uncertain. Leaned warmer than guidance
a couple of degrees for now based on current projections of fropa as most
of CWA would be ahead of front through early afternoon at least.
(Monday - Thursday)
Light rain may linger across portions of the area on Monday as secondary
shortwave trough moves southeastward. Temperatures with clouds and rain
chances along with strong CAA at low levels will yield a cold and raw
early/mid April day. Forecast highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50s far south
still look on track.
Two cold nights with near freezing low temperatures appear possible Monday
night as well as Tuesday night...especially for northern areas. If lows
do dip into the upper 20s...frost/freeze headlines may become necessary
as vegetation begins to grow/bloom...especially over the southern CWA.
Remainder of extended looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to
near normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Last gasp SHRA to the east of the STL Metro area are
expected to again get close but will overall struggle to build
much into that area. May still throw in VCSH for STL and CPS for a
brief period at the beginning of the period. Front should then be
too far to the south to have any impact on Friday. Otherwise,
look for gradually veering light winds from the E by late tonight
becoming variable as a ridge of hi pressure builds in and finally
from the SE to S Friday night as the ridge pulls away.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru the period.
May place a brief VCSH for last-gasp SHRA that are to the east of
STL Metro. Cold front should then be too far south on Friday to
have any impact. Otherwise, look for winds to slowly veer from
the E by Friday morning becoming variable with a ridge of high
pressure building in and finally from the SE Friday night with
departure of the ridge. May see the northern edge of some lower
cloud reach the terminal late Friday night. Current indications
are that the bases will be straddling MVFR-VFR categories and may
not have much of a chance to establish itself before sunrise.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1004 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE 10 PM. SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE HELPED TO INTENSIFY
STORMS THERE EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH SOME REPORTS OF GOLF BALL
HAIL. SEVERE WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL IOWA WAS CANCELLED JUST BEFORE
10 PM EXPIRATION WITH A NEW WATCH ISSUED EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL
HAVE FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES IN A
WATCH THROUGH 2 AM. RADAR TRENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS CONVECTION
SUGGEST STORMS THERE WILL STAY SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE ONLY A COUNTY AWAY AND EARLIER CONVECTION
PRODUCED FAST-MOVING LEFT MOVER THAT DROPPED LARGE HAIL IN FALLS
CITY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN WATCH AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES MAY BE A DIFFERENT
STORY AS STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND LIKELIHOOD OF REDEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS WANING. WILL RE-EVALUATE
THIS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND OVERRIDES SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WOULD
EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO START LIGHTING UP NEAR OR AFTER 4 AM ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TYPE SUNDAY
PRIMARY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.
WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONT CONTINUED TO PRESS SEWD INTO THE AFTN
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARLAN IA TO A LITTLE SE OF OLU AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH BETTER SFC COOLING LAGGED WELL TO THE NORTH. MOST
OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WIND SHIFT HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A SW
COMPONENT TO WIND THAT IT HAD COMBINED WITH MIXING TO LOWER MANY
SFC DWPTS INTO MID 50S OR LOWER...MAIN EXCEPTION THROUGH 20Z FROM
SE CORNER OF NEBR INTO SW IA. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP MIXED LAYER CIN
VALUES STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH IT WEAKENING IN CNTRL IA TOWARD NEBR
CITY PER SPC MESO PAGE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT FIRST OR AT LEAST
HIGHEST CONVECTION CHANCES WOULD BE IN IA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER THAN 18Z RAP AND ALSO 12Z 4KM WRF.
WITH DECENT...ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...DEEP SHEAR AND ML
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2K J/KG....CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND RISK EARLY PROBABLY SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SW THIS EVENING OR NORTH OF BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT LESS
CERTAIN WITH SOME HINTS BY TWO ABOVE SHORTER TERM MODELS
INDICATING A LULL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR NORTH OF OMAHA/LINCOLN BY 12Z. NE NEBR
COULD REMAIN DRY ALL NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO MID/LATE SUN MORNING
PER NAM...BUT INTRODUCED MODEST POPS TOWARD 12Z INCREASING INTO
CATEGORICAL MOST/ALL AREAS THEN TOWARD MIDDAY.
NAM HAD BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON COOLING AIRMASS AS PRECIP FELL NRN
ZONES...EXCEPT FAR NW...AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP COULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...KEPT
A R/S MIX IN ACROSS NERN NEBR. SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE SERN ZONES INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY AS H85 BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR SERN NEBR AND WOULD SUSPECT BEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD FOCUS TOWARD THAT AREA DUE TO LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. HOWEVER...SOME HINT AT A MID LVL FRONTO BAND OF PRECIP
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH THUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED/INCLUDED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE
DAY. MOST TEMPS STEADY/FALLING BUT IF PRECIP WOULD STAY OUT OF
SERN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY COULD SEE A FUTURE NEED FOR A
SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP THERE. WINDS OVER N AND W WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL CONVECTIVE THREAT/PRECIP TRENDS BEFORE THAT PASS
FIRST.
KEPT RAIN/SNOW MIX W/SNOW ON NW FRINGE MENTION IN FORECAST SUN
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTY AS GFS
ENDS BULK OF PRECIP MOST AREAS AS SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SOME WIND/CLOUDS PERSISTING...KEPT LOWS ON OR
ABOVE WARMER GUID VALUES SUN NIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDING
BACK INTO MONDAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE SERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST LOOKS DRY THEN INTO TUE AND WITH INCREASED MIXING ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
KEPT SLGT CHANCE POPS IN WED AFTN FAR NRN ZONES AS 12Z GFS/ECM
BROUGHT NEXT FRONT/TROUGH INTO THAT REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
READINGS SHOULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND IF TRENDS
PERSIST...COULD SEE A NEED FOR FURTHER RAISING IN LATER FORECASTS.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE IN THU/FRI PERIOD AS GFS CLOSES OF A COLD
UPPER TROUGH LOOKING DOWNRIGHT NASTY THU NIGHT NERN NEBR. WHILE
ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...IT TOO TRENDED COLDER. THUS WOULD
THINK SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION WAS STILL WARRANTED WED NGT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT NWRN ZONES AND EVEN EXTENDED MENTION INTO THU
MORNING. COULD FORESEE THIS THREAT BEING SHIFTED SE IF COLD
TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE.
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS WERE MENTIONED PER MODEL BLEND.
HOWEVER...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS LEAD
TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD STAY EAST OF
KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH WILL TURN
WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES DURING THE EVENING. THEN AS A LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STORMS LIKELY. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...AVERAGING 20 TO 35KT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. WEATHER WATCH
FOR THIS AREA IS FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TYPE SUNDAY
PRIMARY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.
WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONT CONTINUED TO PRESS SEWD INTO THE AFTN
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARLAN IA TO A LITTLE SE OF OLU AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH BETTER SFC COOLING LAGGED WELL TO THE NORTH. MOST
OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WIND SHIFT HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A SW
COMPONENT TO WIND THAT IT HAD COMBINED WITH MIXING TO LOWER MANY
SFC DWPTS INTO MID 50S OR LOWER...MAIN EXCEPTION THROUGH 20Z FROM
SE CORNER OF NEBR INTO SW IA. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP MIXED LAYER CIN
VALUES STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH IT WEAKENING IN CNTRL IA TOWARD NEBR
CITY PER SPC MESO PAGE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT FIRST OR AT LEAST
HIGHEST CONVECTION CHANCES WOULD BE IN IA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER THAN 18Z RAP AND ALSO 12Z 4KM WRF.
WITH DECENT...ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...DEEP SHEAR AND ML
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2K J/KG....CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND RISK EARLY PROBABLY SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SW THIS EVENING OR NORTH OF BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT LESS
CERTAIN WITH SOME HINTS BY TWO ABOVE SHORTER TERM MODELS
INDICATING A LULL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR NORTH OF OMAHA/LINCOLN BY 12Z. NE NEBR
COULD REMAIN DRY ALL NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO MID/LATE SUN MORNING
PER NAM...BUT INTRODUCED MODEST POPS TOWARD 12Z INCREASING INTO
CATEGORICAL MOST/ALL AREAS THEN TOWARD MIDDAY.
NAM HAD BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON COOLING AIRMASS AS PRECIP FELL NRN
ZONES...EXCEPT FAR NW...AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP COULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...KEPT
A R/S MIX IN ACROSS NERN NEBR. SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE SERN ZONES INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY AS H85 BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR SERN NEBR AND WOULD SUSPECT BEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD FOCUS TOWARD THAT AREA DUE TO LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. HOWEVER...SOME HINT AT A MID LVL FRONTO BAND OF PRECIP
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH THUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED/INCLUDED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE
DAY. MOST TEMPS STEADY/FALLING BUT IF PRECIP WOULD STAY OUT OF
SERN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY COULD SEE A FUTURE NEED FOR A
SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP THERE. WINDS OVER N AND W WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL CONVECTIVE THREAT/PRECIP TRENDS BEFORE THAT PASS
FIRST.
KEPT RAIN/SNOW MIX W/SNOW ON NW FRINGE MENTION IN FORECAST SUN
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTY AS GFS
ENDS BULK OF PRECIP MOST AREAS AS SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SOME WIND/CLOUDS PERSISTING...KEPT LOWS ON OR
ABOVE WARMER GUID VALUES SUN NIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDING
BACK INTO MONDAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE SERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST LOOKS DRY THEN INTO TUE AND WITH INCREASED MIXING ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
KEPT SLGT CHANCE POPS IN WED AFTN FAR NRN ZONES AS 12Z GFS/ECM
BROUGHT NEXT FRONT/TROUGH INTO THAT REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
READINGS SHOULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND IF TRENDS
PERSIST...COULD SEE A NEED FOR FURTHER RAISING IN LATER FORECASTS.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE IN THU/FRI PERIOD AS GFS CLOSES OF A COLD
UPPER TROUGH LOOKING DOWNRIGHT NASTY THU NIGHT NERN NEBR. WHILE
ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...IT TOO TRENDED COLDER. THUS WOULD
THINK SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION WAS STILL WARRANTED WED NGT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT NWRN ZONES AND EVEN EXTENDED MENTION INTO THU
MORNING. COULD FORESEE THIS THREAT BEING SHIFTED SE IF COLD
TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE.
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS WERE MENTIONED PER MODEL BLEND.
HOWEVER...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS LEAD
TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD STAY EAST OF
KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH WILL TURN
WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES DURING THE EVENING. THEN AS A LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STORMS LIKELY. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...AVERAGING 20 TO 35KT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL END
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WITH A
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z. RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING
SHOWERS LASTING FOR ABOUT A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS STILL GUSTY AT
TIMES...BUT THESE WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 09Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AFTER THAT...DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND
TO WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE FCST REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW SPRAWLED ALONG AN
ELM...ITH...TO RME LINE. LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ONGOING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE
MORNING HRS PROGRESS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED POPS AS
PREVIOUS FCST ACCOUNTED FOR EXPECTATIONS QUITE WELL.
1045 PM UPDATE...
DID AN UPDATE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING RADAR RETURNS
AND PRECIP. SHORT WAVE MENTIONED BELOW FROM THE MID WEST WAS
RAPIDLY WORKING E AND AS A RESULT THE CD FRNT WAS ON THE MOVE
REACHING INTO FAR NW PART OF NY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD AS THIS SHRT WAVE RACES EAST AND CLEAR NE PA BY 11-12Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN CLOSE TO FROPA AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE FRNT AS THIS WAVE PASSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT
THIS TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY
WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000
FEET WITH THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING
ARND 9000 TO 10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO
REACHING THE GRND. METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER
LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS THEY CONT TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY WITH EACH OTHER. WARM ADVECTION WL BE IN PLACE AT
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD WITH CHC SHOWERS ACRS FAR WRN ZONES FOR MONDAY
UNTIL UPR LVL TROF GETS CLOSER, HELPING TO PUSH FRONT THRU.
CATEGORICAL/LKLY POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE CONTINUE TO LOOK
REASONABLE FOR MON NGT AND TUE.
ANOTHER WV WL DVLP ACRS SERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND RIDE UP ALONG
FRONTAL BNDRY, SPREADING QPF ACRS ERN ZONES TUE NGT. AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS MAY BE CLD ENUF FOR SNOW WEST OF I-81
CORRIDOR AFT 06Z JUST AS PCPN PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME TO DIGEST THE POTENTIAL. HIPRES BUILDS IN WED NGT AND THUR
WITH RETURN TO CLDR THAN NRML TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BLO...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING EXTREMELY SLOW TONIGHT. HAS JUST STARTED
SPRINKLING AT KSYR AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO CREEP SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT AND NOT MOVE INTO KITH/KELM UNTIL 07Z, KBGM UNTIL 08Z AND
KAVP AROUND 10Z. WITH ONLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KITH AND KBGM.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL SPREAD BKN100 CIGS TO NY TERMINALS
AFTER 16Z WITH UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS AT KAVP AFTER 18Z.
WINDS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF FRONT, THEN BECOMING NW AS FROPA
OCCURS WITH VERY BRIEF GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
NW WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE FCST REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW SPRAWLED ALONG AN
ELM...ITH...TO RME LINE. LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ONGOING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE
MORNING HRS PROGRESS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED POPS AS
PREVIOUS FCST ACCOUNTED FOR EXPECTATIONS QUITE WELL.
1045 PM UPDATE...
DID AN UPDATE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING RADAR RETURNS
AND PRECIP. SHORT WAVE MENTIONED BELOW FROM THE MID WEST WAS
RAPIDLY WORKING E AND AS A RESULT THE CD FRNT WAS ON THE MOVE
REACHING INTO FAR NW PART OF NY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD AS THIS SHRT WAVE RACES EAST AND CLEAR NE PA BY 11-12Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN CLOSE TO FROPA AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE FRNT AS THIS WAVE PASSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT
THIS TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY
WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000
FEET WITH THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING
ARND 9000 TO 10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO
REACHING THE GRND. METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER
LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING EXTREMELY SLOW TONIGHT. HAS JUST STARTED
SPRINKLING AT KSYR AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO CREEP SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT AND NOT MOVE INTO KITH/KELM UNTIL 07Z, KBGM UNTIL 08Z AND
KAVP AROUND 10Z. WITH ONLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KITH AND KBGM.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL SPREAD BKN100 CIGS TO NY TERMINALS
AFTER 16Z WITH UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS AT KAVP AFTER 18Z.
WINDS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF FRONT, THEN BECOMING NW AS FROPA
OCCURS WITH VERY BRIEF GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
NW WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE FCST REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW SPRAWLED ALONG AN
ELM...ITH...TO RME LINE. LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ONGOING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE
MORNING HRS PROGRESS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED POPS AS
PREVIOUS FCST ACCOUNTED FOR EXPECTATIONS QUITE WELL.
1045 PM UPDATE...
DID AN UPDATE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING RADAR RETURNS
AND PRECIP. SHORT WAVE MENTIONED BELOW FROM THE MID WEST WAS
RAPIDLY WORKING E AND AS A RESULT THE CD FRNT WAS ON THE MOVE
REACHING INTO FAR NW PART OF NY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD AS THIS SHRT WAVE RACES EAST AND CLEAR NE PA BY 11-12Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN CLOSE TO FROPA AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE FRNT AS THIS WAVE PASSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT
THIS TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY
WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000
FEET WITH THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING
ARND 9000 TO 10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO
REACHING THE GRND. METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER
LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO 4K FT.
ABOUT A FOUR TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
WITH FROPA. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND
04Z. BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KITH/KBGM
AND POSSIBLE AT SYR/RME. AFTER 12Z JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AT KAVP, UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
AROUND DAYBREAK THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVE
DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 04Z. BECOMING W/NW AFTER FROPA AROUND
5-10 KNOTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
802 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM EARLY TONIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THE
NORTHWEST MIGHT CLIP THE COUNTY. UPPED THE HOURLY POP JUST A
LITTLE FOR EARLY TONIGHT AND LOWERED THE POP ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
IN FACT...TRENDED INTO SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE THE HEIGHTS AND WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE NEAR
THE MAX ON SUNDAY.
ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST TONIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD BUT IT IS
NOT. THE CONCERN IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO THE WEST. CONVECTION HAD FIRED ON THE HEAD OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST AND APPEARS THAT IT
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THE HEAD OF THE JET WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION
COULD FIRE IN THIS AREA AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS IS "ALL IN" ON THIS
SCENARIO AND PUTTING REALLY HIGH POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. I AM NOT AS SOLD ON THAT SOLUTION AND I AM LEANING MORE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE VERY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. I AM
NOT CONVINCED THE GFS IS COMPLETELY RIGHT BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE NAM TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE POPS. THE HRRR MODEL
KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION NORTH AS WELL. I WILL KEEP THE SLGHT CHC
FOR THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING NEAR 30MPH.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD
DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS WE DECOUPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX SITUATION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FOCUS OF THE
WEATHER FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 18Z-06Z MON-TUE. TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO. A STRONG 850MB JET WILL SETUP OVER INDIANA AND NW
OHIO ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN VARIOUS STATES UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
THE JET MAX EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THIS JET WITH THE
WARM FRONT IS CONCERNING. WHILE I THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NW OHIO ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND THE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ON MONDAY MORNING WITH ALL AREAS
FORECAST TO HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT ARE IMPRESSIVE. THE THERMAL FORCING
WILL BE STRONG ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...THE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN ANY TYPE OF
SEVERE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXCEPT FOR GENERAL THUNDER. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COULD MEAN
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -10C PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BUT MAY MIX
WITH RAIN DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF DOES NOT PAST EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL 06Z WED. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TOUGH. WE WILL
SEE A NON-DIURNAL TREND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HE HIGH THAT HELPED TO PUSH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WED BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER THRU THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU
NIGHT. AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER MORE BY FRI SO THE SITUATION BY
THEN IS MORE IN QUESTION AND EVEN MORE SO BY SAT. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY FRI AND
SAT...ALTHOUGH SAT COULD CHANGE IF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THRU AND
TURNS THE FLOW OFF OF THE CHILLY LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING COULD CLIP THE ERI
AIRPORT WITH A STRAY SHOWER AND SPREAD SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS AS FAR
SOUTH AS CLE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER INCREASED
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10KT
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING IN MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE INCREASING DEW POINTS. SOME 5-6SM VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COULD CAUSE SOME NOTABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LIKELY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW
TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO MON...BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT PASSES LATER MON
WHILE VEERING TO THE NW THEN INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS MON
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AT THE SHORELINE MAY BE NEAR 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES MON MORNING BUT THE COLDER WATER TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR LATE SUN NIGHT AND
MON AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON SUN. THE HIGH OVER THE LAKE TUE NIGHT
WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKES WED LEADING TO E TO NE WINDS ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WED INTO THU.
THE STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE CONTINUED BREAKUP OF THE ICE FIELDS ON THE LAKE BUT MAY ALSO
CAUSE OPEN TRACKS TO CLOSE ON THE NE PART OF THE LAKE AS THE ICE
SHIFTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...GARNET/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
738 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE BEST INFLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST. WE CAN GET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH NOT
MUCH RISK OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE. THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
HAS TRENDED THE HOURLY POP/WX AND SKY COVER IN THIS DIRECTION
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST TONIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD BUT IT IS
NOT. THE CONCERN IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO THE WEST. CONVECTION HAD FIRED ON THE HEAD OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST AND APPEARS THAT IT
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THE HEAD OF THE JET WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION
COULD FIRE IN THIS AREA AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS IS "ALL IN" ON THIS
SCENARIO AND PUTTING REALLY HIGH POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. I AM NOT AS SOLD ON THAT SOLUTION AND I AM LEANING MORE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE VERY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. I AM
NOT CONVINCED THE GFS IS COMPLETELY RIGHT BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE NAM TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE POPS. THE HRRR MODEL
KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION NORTH AS WELL. I WILL KEEP THE SLGHT CHC
FOR THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING NEAR 30MPH.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD
DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS WE DECOUPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX SITUATION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FOCUS OF THE
WEATHER FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 18Z-06Z MON-TUE. TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO. A STRONG 850MB JET WILL SETUP OVER INDIANA AND NW
OHIO ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN VARIOUS STATES UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
THE JET MAX EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THIS JET WITH THE
WARM FRONT IS CONCERNING. WHILE I THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NW OHIO ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND THE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ON MONDAY MORNING WITH ALL AREAS
FORECAST TO HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT ARE IMPRESSIVE. THE THERMAL FORCING
WILL BE STRONG ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...THE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN ANY TYPE OF
SEVERE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXCEPT FOR GENERAL THUNDER. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COULD MEAN
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -10C PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BUT MAY MIX
WITH RAIN DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF DOES NOT PAST EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL 06Z WED. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TOUGH. WE WILL
SEE A NON-DIURNAL TREND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HE HIGH THAT HELPED TO PUSH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WED BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER THRU THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU
NIGHT. AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER MORE BY FRI SO THE SITUATION BY
THEN IS MORE IN QUESTION AND EVEN MORE SO BY SAT. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY FRI AND
SAT...ALTHOUGH SAT COULD CHANGE IF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THRU AND
TURNS THE FLOW OFF OF THE CHILLY LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING COULD CLIP THE ERI
AIRPORT WITH A STRAY SHOWER AND SPREAD SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS AS FAR
SOUTH AS CLE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER INCREASED
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10KT
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING IN MORE MIXING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE INCREASING DEW POINTS. SOME 5-6SM VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE COULD CAUSE SOME NOTABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS LIKELY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW
TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO MON...BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT PASSES LATER MON
WHILE VEERING TO THE NW THEN INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS MON
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AT THE SHORELINE MAY BE NEAR 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES MON MORNING BUT THE COLDER WATER TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR LATE SUN NIGHT AND
MON AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON SUN. THE HIGH OVER THE LAKE TUE NIGHT
WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKES WED LEADING TO E TO NE WINDS ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WED INTO THU.
THE STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE CONTINUED BREAKUP OF THE ICE FIELDS ON THE LAKE BUT MAY ALSO
CAUSE OPEN TRACKS TO CLOSE ON THE NE PART OF THE LAKE AS THE ICE
SHIFTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...GARNET/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS/JAMISON
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS STILL FALLING APART.
NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER OH WITH THE NEXT WAVE.
12Z TAFS SENT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKEN AS IT MOVED INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE IS A WAVE...WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE
HAD. STILL SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A
LARGE RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
THUS MORE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/CERU
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS STILL FALLING APART.
NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER OH WITH THE NEXT WAVE.
12Z TAFS SENT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKEN AS IT MOVED INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE IS A WAVE...WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE
HAD. STILL SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A
LARGE RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
THUS MORE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN/LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
607 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS FALLING APART.
9Z TAFS ADJUSTED.
RADAR STILLS SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OH.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A COLD FRONT OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. NORMALLY WOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST AND SOUTH OF
BFD...BUT THERE IS A WAVE JUST WEST OF LAKE MI. STILL SOME RISK OF
LLWS EARLY TODAY.
THUS WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAD. STILL
SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A LARGE
RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM HAS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. NORMALLY WOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST
AND SOUTH OF BFD...BUT THERE IS A WAVE JUST WEST OF LAKE MI.
STILL SOME RISK OF LLWS EARLY TODAY.
THUS WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAD. STILL
SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A LARGE
RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS TAF PERIOD REGARDING TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR AIRPORTS THIS EVENING.
LEANED HEAVILY ON HRRR WHICH SHOWS SOME -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR CKV/BNA
BETWEEN 23-02Z BUT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT NEARS CSV TOWARDS
02-05Z. ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED -SHRA BETWEEN
NOW AND 23Z...BUT TOO UNLIKELY TO MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
KEEPING EYE ON SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OFF WITH NO CU FIELD YET. THIS AREA
IN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ALONG WITH OTHER PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THINK WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME
FRAME SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ACTIVITY THEN MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AROUND 23Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 12/12Z. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS DYNAMICS WEAKENING
PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KOHX...AND WILL NOT MENTION LLWS FROM FIRST
FM GROUP...BUT ISO GUSTS OF 30-40KTS WITHIN 2KFT AGL POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM N AND BEST OVERALL INSTABILITY NW PORTIONS
OF MID STATE 11/17Z-12/00Z...MENTIONED TEMPO TSTMS CKV WITH MVFR VSBYS 11/18Z-
11/22Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH LOCATION DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAINTY...MENTION VCTS
REMARKS ONLY. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO END AFTER DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES
SUBSIDE 12/01Z-12/02Z...WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12/06Z-12/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. ENOUGH
SFC FORCING WILL STILL RESIDE SO AS TO SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF LOW
POPS FOR TODAY. HRRR LOOKING DRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES WILL INCH UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH SOME CAP
REDUCTION AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT APPROACHES. 20 TO 30 POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO RESIDE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ELEVATED
HEIGHTS WITH SOME RIDGING TENDENCIES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HAPPENS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE FROM TX NE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH AND MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN
ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLAY SO AS TO PROVIDE A POST
FRONTAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NEGATIVE 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL SECTOR OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SOUNDING
PROFILES DOES ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FLAKE OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER PLATEAU ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL ADHERE
TO THE CURRENT FCST AND ONLY INCLUDE A COLD SHOWERY RAINY DAY.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE MONDAY FROPA.
TUESDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE A COLD RAINY AND RAW DAY FOR MID APRIL.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON WED MORNING. SO...AS
THE SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. FREEZE AND
OR FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED AT SOME POINT. TEMPS WILL
INCH UP TOWARD SEASONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
323 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. ENOUGH
SFC FORCING WILL STILL RESIDE SO AS TO SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF LOW
POPS FOR TODAY. HRRR LOOKING DRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES WILL INCH UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH SOME CAP
REDUCTION AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT APPROACHES. 20 TO 30 POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO RESIDE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ELEVATED
HEIGHTS WITH SOME RIDGING TENDENCIES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HAPPENS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE FROM TX NE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH AND MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN
ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLAY SO AS TO PROVIDE A POST
FRONTAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NEGATIVE 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL SECTOR OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SOUNDING
PROFILES DOES ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FLAKE OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER PLATEAU ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL ADHERE
TO THE CURRENT FCST AND ONLY INCLUDE A COLD SHOWERY RAINY DAY.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE MONDAY FROPA.
TUESDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE A COLD RAINY AND RAW DAY FOR MID APRIL.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON WED MORNING. SO...AS
THE SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. FREEZE AND
OR FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED AT SOME POINT. TEMPS WILL
INCH UP TOWARD SEASONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 75 56 80 59 / 20 10 10 05
CLARKSVILLE 73 55 79 57 / 30 10 10 05
CROSSVILLE 71 52 76 56 / 20 20 10 05
COLUMBIA 76 56 80 59 / 10 10 10 05
LAWRENCEBURG 76 54 80 57 / 05 10 10 05
WAVERLY 74 56 79 59 / 20 10 10 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY TRAVELING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WESTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OCCURRING
AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS QUITE
SHALLOW. RNK WRFARW CONTINUES TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ITS MOISTURE. THE LATEST RUN WAITS TO AFTER 00Z BEFORE BRINGING
IN CONVECTION TO NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA. DECIDED TO SLOW THE
TIMING OF POPS/SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. RAISED TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE ADJUSTMENT LATER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT NOT VERY FAR SOUTH. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
18Z/2PM. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
EVEN BE AFTER 00Z/8PM. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT....SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
ONE INCH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON THURSDAY SO EXPECTING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER. ENOUGH SUN IN ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH VALUES CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND SPEED MOST LOCATIONS FOR
NEAR SURFACE AIR TO STAY MIXED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SENDS
IMPRESSIVELY WARM AIR OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. 80F IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WARMER SPOTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTAIN MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP...SO KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. DEEP
SSE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST
VA...TEMPS MAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S BUT 70F AGAIN FOR
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...PERHAPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO
DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING
OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER
SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP
SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING
PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM
STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD
COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL
FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG IT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. ENOUGH DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT LWB AND BLF...THERE WILL BE A SLOWLY INCREASING
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE
MOMENT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY SUNDAY. DUE TO WEAK
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WHILE THE
FRONT IS IN CLOSER TO BLF AND LWB. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
AVIATION IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END
OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH A HIGH
FIRE DANGER CLASS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WILDLAND FIRE
ACTIVITY. WILL ISSUES A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED
THREAT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1016 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE ADJUSTMENT LATER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT NOT VERY FAR SOUTH. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
18Z/2PM. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
EVEN BE AFTER 00Z/8PM. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT....SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
ONE INCH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON THURSDAY SO EXPECTING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER. ENOUGH SUN IN ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH VALUES CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND SPEED MOST LOCATIONS FOR
NEAR SURFACE AIR TO STAY MIXED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SENDS
IMPRESSIVELY WARM AIR OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. 80F IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WARMER SPOTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTAIN MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP...SO KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. DEEP
SSE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST
VA...TEMPS MAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S BUT 70F AGAIN FOR
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...PERHAPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO
DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING
OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER
SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP
SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING
PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM
STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD
COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL
FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END
OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BUT WILL REMAIN
VFR. ENOUGH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING TO RESULT IN 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR LWB AND BLF...THERE WILL
BE A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD
EVENING. AT THE MOMENT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY SUNDAY. DUE TO WEAK
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WHILE THE
FRONT IS IN CLOSER TO BLF AND LWB. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
AVIATION IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH A HIGH
FIRE DANGER CLASS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WILDLAND FIRE
ACTIVITY. WILL ISSUES A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED
THREAT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PW
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
423 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT NOT VERY FAR SOUTH. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
18Z/2PM. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
EVEN BE AFTER 00Z/8PM. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT....SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
ONE INCH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON THURSDAY SO EXPECTING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER. ENOUGH SUN IN ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH VALUES CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND SPEED MOST LOCATIONS FOR
NEAR SURFACE AIR TO STAY MIXED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SENDS
IMPRESSIVELY WARM AIR OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. 80F IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WARMER SPOTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTAIN MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP...SO KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. DEEP
SSE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST
VA...TEMPS MAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S BUT 70F AGAIN FOR
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...PERHAPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO
DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING
OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER
SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP
SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING
PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM
STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD
COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL
FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END
OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BUT WILL REMAIN
VFR. ENOUGH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING TO RESULT IN 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR LWB AND BLF...THERE WILL
BE A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD
EVENING. AT THE MOMENT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY SUNDAY. DUE TO WEAK
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WHILE THE
FRONT IS IN CLOSER TO BLF AND LWB. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
AVIATION IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH A HIGH
FIRE DANGER CLASS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WILDLAND FIRE
ACTIVITY. WILL ISSUES A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED
THREAT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PW
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/PM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
455 AM PDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system will bring scattered showers to the
Idaho Panhandle today and breezy north winds to portions of
central Washington this afternoon. Dry and relatively mild weather
is expected Sunday and Monday with the arrival of high pressure.
A cooler and showery weather regime is expected Tuesday through
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: A shortwave trough of lower pressure is pushing
more over the region tonight with a 500 mb cold pool of around -27
C positioning itself over the Panhandle. This cold pool will
destabilize the mid levels of the atmosphere and we will become
conditionally unstable by this afternoon. The best instability
will likely be over the ID Panhandle. The GFS model paints 200-250
J/KG of surface based CAPE across much of the Panhandle. The NAM
solution is not quite as unstable and much of the instability
more over the Central Panhandle and more stable over the Northern
Panhandle. The NAM is more stable across the Northern Panhandle as
it is more aggressive with the drier air pushing in from Canada.
The NAM may be a little too aggressive when looking at the RUC and
ECMWF dew point temp progs across this area for this afternoon. I
did favor the more unstable GFS solution and added isolated
thunderstorms to the forecast for portions of the ID Panhandle. I
think the best chances for thunderstorms this afternoon will be
over the Central Panhandle Mtns. I left any mention of
thunderstorms out of much of the Northern Panhandle as the NAM may
be correct in bringing in the drier air from the north through the
afternoon hours. Showers associated with this wave will be
limited mainly across the eastern third of the forecast area.
Pressure gradients will tighten substantially this afternoon with
pressure rises occurring in BC behind the trough. This will create
breezy winds down the Okanogan Valley and will bring a punch of
dry air that filters in across the western basin.
Sunday and Sunday night: High pressure will build into the region
and dry continental air from Canada will have spread across all
areas by this time. This combined with large scale subsidence
from the ridge will result in mostly sunny skies. Winds will also
begin to weak on Sunday. Temperatures for the weekend will be near
seasonal normals with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most
valley locations. /SVH
Monday: At this point it looks like Monday will feature the best
combination of dry weather, mild temperatures, and relatively
light winds for the next week. A high amplitude shortwave ridge
axis will translate across Washington on Monday. The GFS, NAM, and
ECMWF are in good agreement that the 500mb ridge will flatten
during the day Monday as a low pressure system moves toward the
coast of British Columbia. The incoming low will likely lead to
increasing high clouds and a transition from light east winds in
the morning to southerly winds in the afternoon. All-in-all,
Monday looks to be a good day for enjoying mild spring weather.
Tuesday through Friday: A cooler and increasingly showery weather
regime is expected Tuesday through next weekend. There is descent
agreement between the GFS, ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Mean that a
cool-open wave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
during the day Tuesday. This trough does not appear to have an
abundance of moisture associated with it, but cool air aloft will
likely set the stage for convective showers. Mid-level west or
northwesterly flow will favor showers over the Idaho Panhandle
especially during the hours of peak heating in the afternoon and
early evening. Shower activity may be isolated at best over the
Columbia Basin Tuesday. A low amplitude or "dirty ridge" is
advertised for Wednesday leading to low chances (20-30 percent) of
precipitation for most of north Idaho and eastern Washington. If
the models hold true, Thursday will be the wettest and possibly
breeziest day of the week. The models currently suggest good
frontal forcing on Thursday in conjunction with good upper level
jet support (left exit region of 300mb jet max). The 00z runs of
the GFS and ECMWF also suggest that a moist frontal system will
bring widespread rain and high elevation snow in the
Saturday/Sunday time-frame. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
12z TAFS: A shortwave trough of lower pressure will push across
the region today. This weather disturbance will interact with some
weak instability this afternoon to produce scattered showers
across extreme eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle. Some of
these showers may develop into thunderstorms over the Central
Panhandle Mtns, but are not expected to impact any of the TAF
sites. This system will move out of the area Saturday evening with
showers diminishing as drier air filters in. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 34 56 35 63 39 / 20 10 0 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 56 32 56 30 63 39 / 30 10 0 0 0 10
Pullman 56 35 56 33 64 41 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 62 37 60 34 69 43 / 10 20 0 0 0 0
Colville 62 30 62 28 67 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 55 32 56 28 62 37 / 50 10 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 54 32 54 30 62 38 / 60 30 0 0 0 10
Moses Lake 65 38 64 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Wenatchee 65 40 64 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Omak 63 34 65 33 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
547 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
HELPING TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN
RAPIDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BECAUSE OF THE RAIN OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE READINGS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
ANTICIPATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD
THEN TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TIMING RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES...A LLJ UPWARDS OF 50 KTS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY GOOD WITHIN THE
LLJ...ADVECTING PWATS GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE AN AREA RAIN DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT. A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME RAIN CAN SNEAK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ONCE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RAIN
SHOWERS EXIT. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
NOSE OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED LLJ WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF WISCONSIN ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ADD A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY HOW PRECIP
WILL EVOLVE TOMORROW...AS A RESULT OF INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. LEANING
TOWARD AN AREA OF RAIN FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 6.5
C/KM...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH AT SPOTS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AN ISSUANCE OF AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A
QUARTER TO HALF OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MUCH LESS FARTHER NW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVG. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS A SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND
DYNAMICS RAMP UP DUE TO THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF
GRB CWA. COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
WILL PULL OUT OF EASTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...ONLY EXPECTING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST PLACES...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...IN THE EVENT THE SNOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN FROM WEDS NGT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND 7 PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. DO NOT
HAVE THUNDER IN THE 00Z TAFS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MERRILL TO MARINETTE...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE
PCPN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING SOME HEAVY
PCPN OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL
LET THE HYDRO FOCAL POINT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SITUATION
TONIGHT...AND ASSESS WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ESF FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
HELPING TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN
RAPIDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BECAUSE OF THE RAIN OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE READINGS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
ANTICIPATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD
THEN TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TIMING RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES...A LLJ UPWARDS OF 50 KTS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY GOOD WITHIN THE
LLJ...ADVECTING PWATS GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE AN AREA RAIN DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT. A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME RAIN CAN SNEAK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ONCE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RAIN
SHOWERS EXIT. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
NOSE OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED LLJ WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF WISCONSIN ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ADD A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY HOW PRECIP
WILL EVOLVE TOMORROW...AS A RESULT OF INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. LEANING
TOWARD AN AREA OF RAIN FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 6.5
C/KM...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH AT SPOTS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AN ISSUANCE OF AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A
QUARTER TO HALF OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MUCH LESS FARTHER NW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVG. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS A SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND
DYNAMICS RAMP UP DUE TO THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF
GRB CWA. COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
WILL PULL OUT OF EASTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...ONLY EXPECTING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST PLACES...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...IN THE EVENT THE SNOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN FROM WEDS NGT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT COULD DROP VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE
BRIEFLY. A PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL THEN OCCUR ONCE THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE DEPARTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE GATHERING STRENGTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE BUILDING AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TO MID-MORNING...WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING QUICKLY WHEN THE RAIN
ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MERRILL TO MARINETTE...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE
PCPN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING SOME HEAVY
PCPN OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL
LET THE HYDRO FOCAL POINT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SITUATION
TONIGHT...AND ASSESS WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ESF FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
910 PM PDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN KERN COUNTY SHOWING HAVE STEADILY SHOWN
INCREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AND NOW SEVERAL SPOTS ARE EXCEEDING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HRRR AND ADJMET DATA SUGGEST THIS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUICKLY
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AND AT THIS POINT WE/RE JUST LOOKING AT
GROUND CLUTTER ON THE 88D. SATELLITE DATA SHOW SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT AS WELL. GRIDDED DATA ADJUSTED FOR THESE CHANGES AND TRENDS.
DRIER AIRMASS TOMORROW WILL INHIBIT ANY APPRECIABLE CAPE FROM
DEVELOPING SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE WORK WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP AN EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE
OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN TUESDAY.
500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5700 METERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE REBUILDS INTO THE STATE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH
SO NO CHANGES TO THE DAY 6-7 FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-12 96:1908 52:1922 64:1904 34:1953
KFAT 04-13 97:1898 54:1998 59:1936 34:1911
KFAT 04-14 98:1985 52:1956 60:1985 36:1972
KBFL 04-12 98:1908 52:1956 59:1978 33:1903
KBFL 04-13 94:2008 57:2012 59:1930 32:1893
KBFL 04-14 99:1985 56:2003 62:1962 33:1893
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
132 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HERKIMER COUNTY...BUT EAST TOWARD NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MULTI-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN PA.
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.
IT LOOKS AS IF THIS MCS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS COULD WORK WELL SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY DAWN. WHILE
WE THINK THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL AT THAT MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...DUE TO AN INCREASE
CLOUDS. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST SO
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY. WE HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND THE
WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY...EVEN BREEZY AT TIMES. DECENT MIXING IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME
60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE
CLEARING COULD BE DELAYED MOST DUE THE WARM FRONT EXITING THOSE
AREAS LAST.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 50S.
MORE WARMING MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...
SO ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG
SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND IN THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AREAS...THEN
COVERAGE SPREADS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...AROUND 50 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY IS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT THE FRONT COULD EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS
OF THE TIMING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH RIVERS DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOW
MELT WHICH IS DESCRIBED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION...AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NT/EARLY WED...MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL TAKE
HOLD WED...DESPITE FAIR WEATHER. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RESUME LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...
TUE NT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST...A DISTINCT
ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY TUE NT...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E LATER AT NIGHT...BUT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END AS SNOW. SOME MINOR
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIP
ENDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMS ON COLDER SURFACES EVEN IN
SOME VALLEY AREAS. AS LONG AS NO PRONOUNCED WAVES DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT...THEN SNOWFALL AMTS IN ANY AREA SHOULD REMAIN MINOR. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT BY
DAYBREAK WED. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS BY EARLY WED AM.
WED-FRI NT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY THE REGION RATHER
RAPIDLY EARLY WED...WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE. A SFC HIGH WILL
DOMINATE FOR LATER WED INTO FRI. SO...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED AM...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WED-WED
NT...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU-FRI NT...WITH
DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THU...THEN 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON FRI...WARMEST BOTH DAYS IN VALLEY AREAS. OVERNIGHT MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S THU AM...AND 30S TO AROUND 40
FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.
SAT-SAT NT...A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT OR SAT NT. WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...A MOISTENING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
14/06Z.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FROM AROUND KGFL-KALB-KPSF TOWARDS 09Z-11Z...SO WILL MENTION
VCSH AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL DUE TO SHOWERS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU WITH JUST OVC SKIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT
WELL NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR AT KGFL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN TREND TO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 TO
25 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE KGFL/KPOU/KPSF FOR A TIME SUNDAY
MORNING...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000-3000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33.0 DEFINITE
SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS ARE NOW SNOW FREE...WHILE
SNOW LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...LAKE GEORGE AREA...
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND OF COURSE THE ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IN
SOME AREAS...BUT THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NORTH.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS LOOK LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY WELL BELOW
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH IN SOME PLACES. WE EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE 35 TO 45
PERCENT SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND 45 TO 60 PERCENT NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...RH VALUES RISE TO 80 TO 100
PERCENT AND FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY
LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
AND HIGHER GUSTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT
RIVER RISES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER RIVERS IN AND THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS...AND
BERKSHIRES WILL SEE MINOR DIURNAL RISES DUE TO SNOW MELT. THE ONLY
AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE REMAINS ARE THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER AND EAST CANADA CREEK. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WHILE THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK LIGHT...THEY WILL COMBINED WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT RUNOFF.
THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS RAIN
ALONG WITH INITIALLY THE WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT COULD EVEN
RESULT IN MINOR TO PERHAPS SOME MODERATE FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ONCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCHES MAYBE
NEED TO BE ISSUED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IF CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLOODING INCREASES. IT IS ADVISABLE TO STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HERKIMER COUNTY...BUT EAST TOWARD NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MULTI-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN PA.
ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS DRY WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.
IT LOOKS AS IF THIS MCS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS COULD WORK WELL SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION BY DAWN. WHILE
WE THINK THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES ARE FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL AT THAT MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...DUE TO AN INCREASE
CLOUDS. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST SO
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY. WE HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWNWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD END IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND THE
WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY...EVEN BREEZY AT TIMES. DECENT MIXING IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME
60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE
CLEARING COULD BE DELAYED MOST DUE THE WARM FRONT EXITING THOSE
AREAS LAST.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 50S.
MORE WARMING MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SOME INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...
SO ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG
SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND IN THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AREAS...THEN
COVERAGE SPREADS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...AROUND 50 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY IS A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT THE FRONT COULD EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS
OF THE TIMING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH RIVERS DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOW
MELT WHICH IS DESCRIBED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION...AND WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NT/EARLY WED...MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL TAKE
HOLD WED...DESPITE FAIR WEATHER. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND TOWARD SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RESUME LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...
TUE NT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST...A DISTINCT
ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY TUE NT...WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM W TO E LATER AT NIGHT...BUT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ANY PRECIP SHOULD END AS SNOW. SOME MINOR
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIP
ENDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMS ON COLDER SURFACES EVEN IN
SOME VALLEY AREAS. AS LONG AS NO PRONOUNCED WAVES DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT...THEN SNOWFALL AMTS IN ANY AREA SHOULD REMAIN MINOR. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT BY
DAYBREAK WED. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS BY EARLY WED AM.
WED-FRI NT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING BY THE REGION RATHER
RAPIDLY EARLY WED...WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE. A SFC HIGH WILL
DOMINATE FOR LATER WED INTO FRI. SO...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED AM...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE FRI OR FRI NT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE
REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WED-WED
NT...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S AND
30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THU-FRI NT...WITH
DAYTIME MAXES REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THU...THEN 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON FRI...WARMEST BOTH DAYS IN VALLEY AREAS. OVERNIGHT MINS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S THU AM...AND 30S TO AROUND 40
FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.
SAT-SAT NT...A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY LATE SAT OR SAT NT. WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS. OTHERWISE...A MOISTENING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT MINS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z/13 MON.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP FROM AROUND KGFL-KALB-KPSF TOWARDS 08Z-10Z...SO WILL MENTION
VCSH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU WITH JUST OVC
SKIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR AT KGFL AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME.
DEPENDING ON IF ENOUGH SHOWERS OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD OCCUR AT KGFL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN TREND INTO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OVER 20 KT...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY AT KGFL/KPOU AND KPSF SUNDAY
MORNING...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000-3000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 35-40 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
33.0 DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA. TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SHRA. WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS ARE NOW SNOW FREE...WHILE
SNOW LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...LAKE GEORGE AREA...
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND OF COURSE THE ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TOMORROW AND MONDAY...BRINGING OUR WARMEST WEATHER
SINCE EARLY LAST OCTOBER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT A FULL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IN
SOME AREAS...BUT THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NORTH.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS LOOK LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY WELL BELOW
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20
MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH IN SOME PLACES. WE EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE 35 TO 45
PERCENT SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND 45 TO 60 PERCENT NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...RH VALUES RISE TO 80 TO 100
PERCENT AND FALL TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY
LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
AND HIGHER GUSTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA DAM ON THE UPPER
MOHAWK RIVER UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS RECENT RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RESERVOIR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR RIVERBANK DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT
RIVER RISES THIS WEEKEND.
OTHER RIVERS IN AND THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS...AND
BERKSHIRES WILL SEE MINOR DIURNAL RISES DUE TO SNOW MELT. THE ONLY
AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE REMAINS ARE THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER AND EAST CANADA CREEK. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WHILE THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY LOOK LIGHT...THEY WILL COMBINED WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE SNOW MELT AND RESULTANT RUNOFF.
THEN...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS RAIN
ALONG WITH INITIALLY THE WARM TEMPERATURES...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT COULD EVEN
RESULT IN MINOR TO PERHAPS SOME MODERATE FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ONCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCHES MAYBE
NEED TO BE ISSUED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IF CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD FLOODING INCREASES. IT IS ADVISABLE TO STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
WIND. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...VERY VERY VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THE COLD
FRONT COULD STILL SHIFT SOUTH IF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH.
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FEATURE SOUTH WINDS. SOME OF
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE AROUND TOMORROW AND TEMPORARILY SHIFT WINDS AT ORD NE.
WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO GOOD REASON TO MAKE CHANGES...LEFT
WINDS IN THE TAFS ALONE.
NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES IN EARLY IN THE AFTN WITH TSRA AND
HEAVY RAIN PSBL. PREVIOUS TIMING IN THE GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND
THINKING A PROB30 FOR TSRA WAS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE
SITUATION. MOVED THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS UP AS WELL AND
EXTENDED THE IFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING ORD/MDW OVERNIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
* ABSOLUTELY NO CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY. IFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATELY STRONG NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EARLY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY...JUST PRIOR TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COMPLEX WIND FORECAST ACROSS
THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE
LARGE VARIATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS DIFFERENT
SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THIS FIRST LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE. THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE SECOND LOW PASSES.
THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS FAR AS HEADLINE
CRITERIA WINDS...WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
CONTINUING ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INDIANA NEAR SHORE
WATERS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY CONTINUE HERE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS COULD AGAIN
RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT DURING THE SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
REQUIRING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME I WILL HOLD OFF ON DOING THIS.
CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERLY
GALES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE LAKE ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...A RATHER STOUT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH COULD SUPPORT AROUND 40 KT
NORTHERLY GALES FOR A PERIOD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. I HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL
4 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM
MONDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...3 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Latest hourly runs of the HRRR and RAP models suggest that
forecast area will remain dry through the night, with the
shower/storm threat increasing from the northwest after sunrise
Sunday. This is a drier solution than some of the earlier runs, as
well as most of the synoptic model runs. Feel this drier trend is
the way to go.
The local airmass, per 00Z KILX and forecast soundings, is quite
dry, and there is not expected to be significant moisture
advection into the area overnight. In fact, the low level flow in
our area is expected to diminish for a time later tonight, with the
best low level inflow apt to remain into the frontal zone to our
northwest. This is where significant convection has blown up over
the past few hours. The main threat for any precipitation reaching
the forecast area before daybreak is if a significant cold pool
can develop with the storms to the northwest and help them
propagate to the southeast. Even if this were to occur, the storms
would be moving into an increasingly hostile environment and
should weaken significantly with time.
Plan to update to remove PoPs from this evening, and reduce them
overnight, restricting them to locations west of the Illinois
River Valley. Otherwise, only minor tweaks are needed for the
expected hourly trends.
Bak
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
The 06Z TAF forecast becomes rather tricky by late tonight across
the central Illinois terminals. Southerly winds, frequently quite
gusty, should prevail through the period ahead of a slowly
approaching storm system. However, the forecast models continue to
struggle with the details regarding when the precipitation threat
arrives locally as the system draws closer. This also has a
significant impact on how soon conditions fall below VFR.
The low pressure center and frontal system with the storm still
lie well west and north of central Illinois through thenight.
While some of the guidance has precipitation chances arriving
tonight as convective storm complex remnants to our northwest sink
toward the area, confidence in this occurring is low. The better
chance of showers and storms will come later Sunday morning into
midday as the main system approaches the Illinois border from the
west. Tried to time in arrival of the more widespread pre-frontal
precipitation with the best model consensus, and carried no more
than a VCSH mention before then. As the front draws closer heading
into Sunday evening, showers/storms will become more widespread
and heavier, resulting in the development of IFR conditions.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday
Warm weather to hold over our area through most of Sunday before a
change to much colder weather on Monday. Main forecast concerns will
be with timing of showers and thunderstorms into west central IL
later this evening and over the remainder of the forecast area by
Sunday night with light snow chances rearing its ugly head Monday
evening as the last of the southern stream shortwaves pushes across
the Ohio Valley.
Warm front that raced through our area early this morning became
active just after sunrise with severe storms across northern IL.
That has effectively put a stop to the northward push of the
boundary and that area from far northern IL west-southwest thru
central Iowa will be the focus for additional thunderstorm
development later this afternoon. Further south in our area,
forecast soundings continue to show a capping inversion in place
between 800-700 mb and short term forecast models suggest this
will hold into the evening hours. So with any focusing mechanism
remaining well to our north and the cap in place, POPs late this
afternoon thru the mid evening hours will be low.
Further west and north, with some impressive CAPE and shear values
forecast across Iowa, supercells will likely be the initial storm
mode before transitioning to more of quasi-linear system late
this evening. Question becomes if it does become organized and a
cold pool develops, we will see a shift southeast into our far
northwest counties late this evening. This is supported by the SPC
WRF and HRW-ARW and NMM simulations which quickly consolidates
from any discrete storms in west central Iowa into a fairly decent
line of storms before the cold pool becomes dominant and storms
dissipate as they translate southeast into our area by midnight.
Still the chance that if the storms remain rather un-organized and
do not develop any cold pool, we may not see much if any rain
across our north overnight as the storm movement will remain
mostly east-northeast across Iowa into northern IL. Will continue
to keep the highest POPs across the northwest for tonight with no
precip expected east of I-55.
It still appears we will be able to enjoy one more warm day on Sunday
with our east and southeast counties probably rain free until Sunday
night. The latest ECMWF and NAM-WRF eject a southern stream wave
northeast into the Midwest by late in the day with an increase in
shower and thunderstorm chances from west to east with the highest
during the day mainly west of I55. Moisture transport really picks
up ahead of this wave late in the day with precipitable water values
of 1.25-1.40 inches, well above climatological norms for our area
for the middle of April. All areas should see a decent rain event
Sunday night as the surface wave slowly moves northeast along the
boundary, which will be right across our forecast area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Better Cape and Shear values will be south
of our area with forecast soundings pretty much saturated from the
ground up Sunday night, so the main threat will be with the threat
for heavy rainfall as the heavier bands of rain with isolated storms
move from southwest to northeast. Rainfall totals still look to be
in the 1 to 2 inch range with some isolated higher amounts possible
Sunday night into early Monday as the surface low enhanced the low
level convergence along the slow moving frontal boundary.
Much colder weather will slowly filter in on Monday as the wave
shifts off to our northeast allowing the boundary to make a bit
more progress to our east during the day. May have a tough time
getting temps to budge out of the 40s north, with morning highs
expected in the southeast before temps fall off in the afternoon.
The NAM-WRF and to a certain extent the GFS model suggests additional
energy to push across our area on Monday with temp profiles trending
colder and more supportive of at least a rain/snow mixture by late
afternoon, and especially after dark. However, the better lift looks
to shift away from our area in the evening so precip amounts look to
be very light, but cold enough to support a mix before the precip
shuts down by midnight.
With the slow moving 500 mb trof axis finally shifting off to our
east late Monday night, skies should begin to clear as high
pressure settles in bringing frost/freezing temperatures to most of
our area by Tuesday morning with lows from the mid 20s far north
to the lower 30s southeast. Quiet weather expected the remainder
of the day on Tuesday as the fair weather system drifts across our
area keeping it on the dry and chilly side.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
Several weather systems to affect our area this period but moisture
will be rather limited with the first wave pushing across the Great
Lakes on Thursday. Next wave embedded in the zonal flow arrives
on Saturday with a better supply of moisture ahead of it. As a result,
will add some mentionable POPs into the grids for the start of the
weekend. After the cool start on Wednesday, our upper flow flattens
out enough to allow milder temperatures back into the area for the
end of the week with temperatures closer to normal for the middle
of April.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
EVENING SOUNDING SO FAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP IN
PLACE WHICH IS PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THE PAST 3 HOURS SHOW NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING BACK TOWARD KOMA AND SOUTH
TO KFNB. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 40 MINUTES...A SEMI
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CONNECT THE SOUTHWEST
IOWA CONVECTION WITH THE NORTHEAST IOWA CONVECTION.
NOWCASTING TOOLS AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP INDICATE CONVECTION WILL
JUST SKIRT OR CATCH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STARTING AROUND 9-10 PM THERE SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLE UPSCALE GROWTH IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE
LLJ BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
BASED ON CLOUD/RADAR TRENDS AND WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED INTERNALLY
BY TRENDS FROM THE RAP ETC...A MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OR WEST/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TOWARD KEBS.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF NEW CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO
DEVELOP/PUSH CONVECTION VERY SLOWLY INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
WEST OF KDBQ BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
AFTER 7 PM...IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES AND THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A VERY PRONOUNCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM SIOUX CITY
IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS OF 2 PM. THIS FRONT HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ON ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...AND WILL BE AGAIN
THE FOCUS IN A FEW HOURS. THE MORNING ROUND OF SEVERE ELEVATED
STORMS PRODUCED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS A VERY
STRONG PROGRESSIVE DOWN BURST WITH ONE SUPERCELL ALONG HIGHWAY 20
IN STEPHENSON COUNTY. THIS DOWN BURST MAY HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...IS WELL
MIXED AND CONTINUES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...MAKING THIS EASILY THE WARMEST DAY IN MANY MONTHS.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST...AND ANY FURTHER INCREASE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH
CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
TONIGHT WILL SEE STORMS FIRE INITIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...MUCH LIKE EARLIER TODAY. THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD IMPACT OUR FAR NORTHWEST
THROUGH 7 PM. EITHER WAY...IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE. BY LATER IN THE
EVENING...A COLD POOL SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
FRONT...ALLOWING STORMS TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH AS A LINE OR BROKEN
LINE. AT THAT TIME...THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIND...BEFORE
THE LINE STALLS OR RUNS INTO A MORE STOUT CAP/EML STILL PRESENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WHERE EVER THIS OCCURS...THE LINE SHOULD STALL OR
AT LEAST SLOW FOR A POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING/TRAINING STORMS.
THUS...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS NORTHWEST...AS IS
POPS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING IS
JUXTAPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST...OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES EVOLVE...WE CAN GREATLY REFINE
THIS DUAL THREAT. RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH OVER 1
INCH WHERE STORMS LAY OUT VERY LIKELY.
SUNDAY...THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE
MORNING...FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
STRONGER UPPER DIFLUENCE IS FORECAST...BUT LESSER CAPE.
THUS...EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT RAIN RATES OVER 0.5 PER HOUR AT TIMES. WITH STRONG FORCING
ALL DAY...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. IF WE WERE NOT IN DROUGHT...WITH UNFROZEN
GROUND...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY FLASH FLOOD RISK...BUT THAT IS NOT
THE CASE. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND
RIVER FLOODING...IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING SO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE OVERALL
FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS COLDER AIR STARTS GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS HOW FAST DOES THE COLD AIR ARRIVE.
BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED A MIX SHOULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE MONDAY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WARMER GROUND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.
AS MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES...SOLAR INSOLATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS GOES FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND WHERE IT TRACKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
MCS CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA IS GENERATING AREAS OF 40-50
MPH WINDS FOR BRIEF PERIODS ALONG WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
LEAVING A BRIEF RESPITE UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN
LATER THIS MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AS RAIN REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. THE BROAD AREA OF RAIN
WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT GIVEN THE
DURATION OF RAIN TODAY AND THE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AT ANY ONE TIME...HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SET TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUN
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND. STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 18Z...WITH THESE STORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING SE KS(KCNU). SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE OUT OF SE KS BY
03Z. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAINFALL. AFTER 03Z FEEL SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL KS WITH KRSL AND KSLN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME SNOW BEFORE 06Z. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
LAWSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 33 43 24 / 60 50 50 0
HUTCHINSON 75 30 44 24 / 60 60 30 0
NEWTON 78 31 42 24 / 70 50 40 0
ELDORADO 79 33 42 25 / 80 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 35 44 25 / 80 40 40 0
RUSSELL 58 29 46 23 / 70 70 10 0
GREAT BEND 61 28 46 22 / 70 70 20 0
SALINA 67 30 46 23 / 80 70 20 0
MCPHERSON 72 30 44 24 / 60 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 78 38 45 26 / 80 90 50 0
CHANUTE 77 36 44 24 / 80 80 50 0
IOLA 76 36 43 24 / 80 80 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 77 37 45 24 / 80 80 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1133 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
UPDATED TO ADJUST STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT POPS TIED CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH MEANT REMOVING THEM FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND ALL OF SE KS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BUILDING IN
SOME CAPPING OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z.
LAWSON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE 17Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
12.15Z RAP FORECAST OF THESE FIELDS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING OVER 25 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. THE 15Z
HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...AS DOES THE 12.12Z WRF-NMM. THIS IS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. AT THAT TIME...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS IS ALSO THE
BEST TIME FOR A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
HAVE COME DOWN BY THEN...JUST NOT SURE THEY WILL HAVE COME DOWN
ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
WE ARE LOOKING AT DISCREET SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. BELIEVE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE HIGH GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANVIL SEEDING AND THE 0-10KM SHEAR
IS GREATER THAN 90 KNOTS. THINK THAT BASEBALL HAIL OR LARGER AS A
MAX HAIL SIZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...SLOWLY ADVANCING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS IT
PASSES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTS WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BY SUNDAY AT 18Z...THE FRONT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM
EMPORIA TO WINFIELD. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS
WILL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS. FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS...WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A RAPID DEVELOP OF STORMS...WITH STORMS BEING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR FASHION. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.
AS SAID EARLIER...AS THE FRONT EXITS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE
IN. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THE WIND COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY NIGHT IN LINE FOR
A REASONABLE FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO. WITH ALL THE COMPLEX WEATHER
GOING ON AHEAD OF THIS THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATTER SHIFTS TO
CONTEMPLATE.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO POSITION...STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DANGEROUS
DAY FOR FIRES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE GULF OPENS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
RATHER STRONG AND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SET TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SUN.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUN
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND. STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 18Z...WITH THESE STORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING SE KS(KCNU). SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE OUT OF SE KS BY
03Z. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO
CENTRAL KS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
RAINFALL. AFTER 03Z FEEL SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START TO MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL KS WITH KRSL AND KSLN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME SNOW BEFORE 06Z. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
SUSTAINED IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
LAWSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE NEXT REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR GRASSLAND WILL NOT BE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
THAT SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SPURN MORE GROWTH OF GRASSES...AS WE
TREND TOWARD LESSER CURING.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 65 76 34 45 / 10 60 50 50
HUTCHINSON 62 69 31 45 / 20 60 60 40
NEWTON 64 74 31 43 / 20 70 50 50
ELDORADO 65 75 33 44 / 10 80 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 77 35 45 / 10 80 40 50
RUSSELL 56 56 28 45 / 20 70 70 20
GREAT BEND 56 58 28 44 / 20 60 70 30
SALINA 60 64 31 46 / 30 60 70 30
MCPHERSON 61 67 30 44 / 30 60 60 40
COFFEYVILLE 65 74 39 45 / 10 60 90 40
CHANUTE 64 73 37 44 / 10 60 80 40
IOLA 64 72 36 44 / 10 70 80 40
PARSONS-KPPF 65 74 38 45 / 10 70 80 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
420 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES IS PARKED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
SITUATED DEEP INTO THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND IN SLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. SFC DEWPOINTS HAD INCREASED INTO THE 50S OVNGT.
11-3.9U SAT AND SFC OBS AT NAK/NHK CAPTURED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHSPK. THE HRRR AND LOCAL ARW-
WRF4N MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOW CLOUDS THOUGH
APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW VSBYS AND FOG. STRATUS SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE WRN SHORE AND WILL MIX OUT BY MID MRNG.
YDA WAS WARM BUT FCST H8-H9 TEMPS TDA ABOUT 3C WARMER...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A BAY BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT
TEMP/DENSITY GRADIENT INLAND AND OVER THE CHSPK BAY WHERE WATERS
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. SYNOPTIC SLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE COOL MARINE AIR FROM ADVECTING MUCH INLAND. TRIED TO
REFLECT THIS IN FCST TEMP/WIND GRIDS- HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WRN SHORE OF MD. LOW- AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS TDA.
HIPRES WILL RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE TNGT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS TNGT. MOIST SLY WINDS 5-15
MPH WILL PERSIST AFTER SUNSET...KEEPING TEMPS MILD TNGT AND FOG
POTENTIAL LOW. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FAVORED THE
WARMER BIAS CORRECT MET/NAM GUIDANCE. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR
THE CHSPK BAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
MON. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFY CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE DAY AND SLY LLVL
JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...POPS WERE
KEPT LOW AND COVERAGE LIMITED TO THE MTS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT
REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY PRESENT ON MON DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LVL CAPPING INVERSION. THE MID-LVL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WRN
HIGHLANDS...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WERE MENTIONED. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MON NIGHT...THE 00Z/03Z ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN WAS ADVERTIZED YESTERDAY...SO
THE CWA WILL STILL BE IN A MILD SOUTHERLY REGIME THIS PERIOD.
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAYTIME. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT
WITH AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH CWA WIDE...WITH SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
INSTABILITY NOT HIGH OWING TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION INSTABILITY OF 100-500 J/KG...SO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TUE NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...AND
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...COLD AIR ALOFT COULD MEAN SOME
SNOW MIXED IN WITH SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING APPRECIABLE EXPECTED FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. 85H TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -10C RANGE LATE TUE NIGHT.
STRONG CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WED...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
AND AND BE OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF WED. TEMPERATURES ON WED
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGF WITH BLUSTRY
WINDS TO START THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FORM A RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THUR...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WED.
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT MORE ON FRI.
SAT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS DRY FOR SAT...BUT VARIOUS MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...OR GREAT LAKES...
DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE ONE LOOKS AT. FOR NOW WILL DOWNPLAY
PRECIP CHANCES AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVNGT ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK
BAY...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT MTN. CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AT MTN AND TO MVFR AT BWI. TERMINALS FARTHER WEST WILL NOT
BE IMPACTED BY ERY MRNG STRATUS. VFR TDA AND THIS EVE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ERY MON MRNG AGAIN NEAR THE BAY. VFR ON MON WITH
SLY WINDS 15-25 KT.
MON NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ON TUE...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BRIEF PDS OF TSTMS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS VFR EXPECTED
LATE TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY WINDS HAD DIMINISHED OVNGT TO UNDER 15 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTN AS MIXING DEEPENS. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTN...TNGT AND NOW MON WITH SLY WINDS 20-25 KT. HOWEVER...
WINDS MAY RELAX BRIEFLY LATE TNGT OUTSIDE OF THOSE MARINE LOCATIONS
EXPOSED TO SLY CHANNELING.
SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. NEAR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE TUE EVENING AND EARLY WED MORNING ON THE
LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY LATE WED. THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
LIKELY AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES DECREASED LAST NGT AND ARE NOW NEAR
ASTRONOMICAL NORM AS A RESULT OF SLY FLOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...LEADING TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE
FOOT BY TNGT AND MON. CBOFS KEEPS ALL WRN SHORE FCST POINTS BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD THRU TNGT. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND A FULL MOON UPCOMING...
WATER LEVELS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD CRITERIA AT THE MORE
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NGT. WILL ADD MENTION TO THE
HWO.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...SMZ
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...JRK/SMZ
MARINE...JRK/SMZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OCCUR JUST PRECEEDING THE LONG TERM. KEPT HIGHER LIKELY POPS
OVER EAST THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY AS LAST PUSH OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE MAY GENERATE UP TO 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1 INCH OF WET SNOW. AWAY FM THIS AREA OF
SNOW...HAVE JUST SOME SMALL CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GAPS IN WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST AND OVERALL WILL BE SEEING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. QUITE COOL...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C
ON TUESDAY IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGHING. EVEN WITH GAPS OF OPEN
WATER OVER ESPECIALLY WEST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIR IS DRY IN
THE LARGER SCALE. SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V
LOOK...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO THE THIN MOIST LAYER AROUND
H85. BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...BUT EVEN THIS AFFECT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS LARGER SCALE
LOW-LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MOST NOTEABLE WILL BE
THE COLD...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING TO THE UPR TEENS OR
LOWER 20S BY LATE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 DEGREES...EVEN OVER SCNTRL. NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL END UP 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOL TEMPS FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY TEENS EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT
ANY INTERIOR LOCATION ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT CLEARS OUT BRIEFLY AND
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS STILL SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS OVER ITS LAST 5 RUNS BACK TO
00Z ON 12 APRIL. ECMWF RATHER INSISTENT INDICATING WIDESPREAD QPF
WILL BE MORE FROM DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
CWA TO LK SUPERIOR. GFS IDEA IS MORE OR LESS SUPPORTED BY LAST
COUPLE GEM-NH RUNS AND 12Z/12 APRIL RUN OF UKMET. DIVING IN MORE IT
APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS LOOK SIMILAR IN THE
LARGER SCALE /LEAD SHORTWAVE INITIALIZING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE STRONGER/LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA/ THEY DIFFER IN HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. GFS IS SLOWER TO PHASE THUS BRINGS SFC LOW
FARTHER EAST INITIALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PHASES QUICKER AND LIFTS THE
LOW MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EMERGE OUT OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS OF PRIMARY MODELS
INDICATES HIGH CHANCES OVER CWA...BEGINNING VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS ALL CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EASTERN CWA. PTYPE MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS OVER SCNTRL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST CWA PER BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3 G/KG INDICATE
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN
OF ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS/GEM-NH IDEAS. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF HWOMQT NOW THOUGH SINCE AS THIS IS THE FIRST
ECMWF RUN TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES BY FRIDAY AS RECENT RUNS OF GFS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TOWARD 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS UPPER LAKES. ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
ALL WHILE THE GEM-NH SHOWS SOME IDEA THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP...
JUST NOT AS STRONG AS GFS. CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS
INPUT... GIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MANUALLY
TWEAKED THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT ALONE OTHERWISE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED TEMPS INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHETHER
ANY SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY. IF SO...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF NOT...INLAND AREAS AWAY FM
THE LAKES COULD REACH LOWER 50S ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS H85
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH AN UPSLOPE E WIND WITHIN SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS N OF STNRY FNT IN
THE LOWER GREAT LKS...EXPECT VLIFR/BLO LANDING MINS TO PERSIST AT
CMX THRU SUNRISE. CONDITIONS AT SAW AND IWD SHOULD DETERIORATE TO
LIFR/IFR RESPECTIVLEY WITH THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF MORE LLVL MSTR IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING UNDER MID LVL DRYING AND LGT UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT AT SAW/WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE WIND AT IWD. EXPECT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING ON SUN.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SFC LO THAT IS FCST TO MOVE FM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LKS TNGT AND THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF
THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN AREA...SOME SN/IFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO
SAW THIS EVNG. BUT SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS FCST THE HEAVIER PCPN TO
REMAIN TO THE SE...WL FCST JUST MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
RIVER HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS AT RKLM4/FRDM4 AND EVEN AT
MSQM4 OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BROKEN AND RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF. AS OF THIS MORNING...NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM THE ICE
JAMS. SEEMS THAT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK /HIGHS 20S TO
30S WITH LOWS WELL BLO FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/...WE
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE END OF THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH
4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS
THAT WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Cooling of the boundary layer is causing storms to transition to an
elevated nature which is making the effects of the dry warm layer year
800 hPa even more pronounced. This resulted in a quick dissipation of
any storms near or south of I-70 where the capping inversion is
strongest and these areas are likely to remain dry overnight. Further
north, intensifying LLJ is aiding the progression of strong storms
between STJ and MCI where there remains MUCAPE of over 1000 J/kg.
However this elevated instability is progged to weaken to the east of
I-35 so the threat for strong storms will diminish as storms push
into this less unstable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tonight:
Frontal boundaries will likely be the focus for most of the
convection tonight. A warm front extends from a weak low near OMA
through northern IL. A diffuse area of low pressure over southwest
KS is connected to the OMA low by a very weak cold front.
Strong and gusty southerly winds have pulled up the season`s first
large swath of gulf moisture into KS/MO as noted by 60ish dewpoints
while southwesterly h8 winds spread an elevated mixed layer across
KS and MO resulting in a moderately strong cap.The end result is the
warmest temperatures of the year with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg but
marginal 0-6km shear around 35 kts. Evening convective activity will
likely be closely tied to the IA warm front. Best severe threat will
reside over IA with isolated severe storms possible over northwest
MO mainly this evening. Large hail would be the most likely severe
threat. A h7 shortwave is progged to lift northeast through northern
KS/NE and activate this warm front. Last 4-5 runs of the HRRR has
consistently shown scattered convection popping up along this
boundary around 22z. The convection further south which the HRRR and
RAP develop over east central KS is a bit suspicious as it forms
within the well capped environment with no boundary nearby. Wouldn`t
be surprised if it actually form further west along the dryline over
central KS where some cu has recently formed. Prefer to limit the
evening convection to northwest and north central MO. Also have low
confidence in the NAM and GFS propagating an MCS southward into east
central KS and west central MO by 06Z. Overall, will concentrate
highest PoPs across northern MO and lower them south of the MO River.
Sunday-Sunday night:
A broad upper trough over the desert southwest is expected to lift
northeast on Sunday and enhance the downstream lift via
increasing/expanding upper level diffluence. This in turn will lead
to widespread convection with heavy rains likely. Scattered
convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and this plus
extensive low level cloud cover will make it difficult to realize the
moderate instability the soundings show. Should some breaks occur of
any meaningful length of time then we could tap into this instability
and give a boost to our severe threat. For now strong storms are
possible south of the MO River on Sunday with a minimal severe
threat. The main weather threat will be from heavy rains due to very
efficient deep, tropical-like convection, which could train during
the afternoon and early evening.
The true cold front currently lies form eastern ND through west
central SD which will reinforce the frontal boundary on Sunday. A
second and much deeper northern upper trough will push this front
southeast with strong cold air advection rushing in Sunday night.
Inspection of Bufr soundings suggest the rain could mix with snow
over parts of northwest MO late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night:
A very raw and blustery day with temperatures 20 degrees below
average. While the NAM had previously been discounted as being too
cold and generating several inches of snow the latest GFS and ECMWF
have been trending colder and also generating at least a rain/snow
mix. Started trending colder yesterday and continue doing so today.
Areas of light rain mixed with snow seems plausible if not likely
Monday morning. Will hold off on mentioning any snow amounts for now.
Very cold temperatures will settle in overnight Monday as skies
clear out. Will see sub-freezing temperatures everywhere with many
locations experiencing several hours of temperatures below 28F at
which water freezes inside most plants. Will be issuing headlines
eventually for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tuesday-Saturday
After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will steadily
rebound Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs primarily in the 50s and
60s respectively. Model solutions vary greatly with regards to
timing, amplification/strength, and placement of the next upper
trough to affect the area Thursday or Friday. This provides
relatively high uncertainty to the expected weather during this
period, and likewise the degree of cooler weather to follow upon the
frontal passage. As for temperatures during the period, readings
should remain slightly below climatological normals for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Storms should remain north and east of the KC and STJ areas for the
remainder of the night. Earlier storms left winds variable but they
should return from the SSE over the next several hours. MVFR ceilings
developing over TX should rapidly expand northward early Sunday
morning and could make it as far north as northern MO by sunrise.
Widespread thunderstorms are likely beginning early Sunday afternoon
as a cold front moves in. Some of these may be strong. Front will
push through the area toward 00Z with some gusty winds and showers
lingering through the evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Cooling of the boundary layer is causing storms to transition to an
elevated nature which is making the effects of the dry warm layer year
800 hPa even more pronounced. This resulted in a quick dissipation of
any storms near or south of I-70 where the capping inversion is
strongest and these areas are likely to remain dry overnight. Further
north, intensifying LLJ is aiding the progression of strong storms
between STJ and MCI where there remains MUCAPE of over 1000 J/kg.
However this elevated instability is progged to weaken to the east of
I-35 so the threat for strong storms will diminish as storms push
into this less unstable airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tonight:
Frontal boundaries will likely be the focus for most of the
convection tonight. A warm front extends from a weak low near OMA
through northern IL. A diffuse area of low pressure over southwest
KS is connected to the OMA low by a very weak cold front.
Strong and gusty southerly winds have pulled up the season`s first
large swath of gulf moisture into KS/MO as noted by 60ish dewpoints
while southwesterly h8 winds spread an elevated mixed layer across
KS and MO resulting in a moderately strong cap.The end result is the
warmest temperatures of the year with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg but
marginal 0-6km shear around 35 kts. Evening convective activity will
likely be closely tied to the IA warm front. Best severe threat will
reside over IA with isolated severe storms possible over northwest
MO mainly this evening. Large hail would be the most likely severe
threat. A h7 shortwave is progged to lift northeast through northern
KS/NE and activate this warm front. Last 4-5 runs of the HRRR has
consistently shown scattered convection popping up along this
boundary around 22z. The convection further south which the HRRR and
RAP develop over east central KS is a bit suspicious as it forms
within the well capped environment with no boundary nearby. Wouldn`t
be surprised if it actually form further west along the dryline over
central KS where some cu has recently formed. Prefer to limit the
evening convection to northwest and north central MO. Also have low
confidence in the NAM and GFS propagating an MCS southward into east
central KS and west central MO by 06Z. Overall, will concentrate
highest PoPs across northern MO and lower them south of the MO River.
Sunday-Sunday night:
A broad upper trough over the desert southwest is expected to lift
northeast on Sunday and enhance the downstream lift via
increasing/expanding upper level diffluence. This in turn will lead
to widespread convection with heavy rains likely. Scattered
convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and this plus
extensive low level cloud cover will make it difficult to realize the
moderate instability the soundings show. Should some breaks occur of
any meaningful length of time then we could tap into this instability
and give a boost to our severe threat. For now strong storms are
possible south of the MO River on Sunday with a minimal severe
threat. The main weather threat will be from heavy rains due to very
efficient deep, tropical-like convection, which could train during
the afternoon and early evening.
The true cold front currently lies form eastern ND through west
central SD which will reinforce the frontal boundary on Sunday. A
second and much deeper northern upper trough will push this front
southeast with strong cold air advection rushing in Sunday night.
Inspection of Bufr soundings suggest the rain could mix with snow
over parts of northwest MO late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night:
A very raw and blustery day with temperatures 20 degrees below
average. While the NAM had previously been discounted as being too
cold and generating several inches of snow the latest GFS and ECMWF
have been trending colder and also generating at least a rain/snow
mix. Started trending colder yesterday and continue doing so today.
Areas of light rain mixed with snow seems plausible if not likely
Monday morning. Will hold off on mentioning any snow amounts for now.
Very cold temperatures will settle in overnight Monday as skies
clear out. Will see sub-freezing temperatures everywhere with many
locations experiencing several hours of temperatures below 28F at
which water freezes inside most plants. Will be issuing headlines
eventually for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tuesday-Saturday
After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will steadily
rebound Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs primarily in the 50s and
60s respectively. Model solutions vary greatly with regards to
timing, amplification/strength, and placement of the next upper
trough to affect the area Thursday or Friday. This provides
relatively high uncertainty to the expected weather during this
period, and likewise the degree of cooler weather to follow upon the
frontal passage. As for temperatures during the period, readings
should remain slightly below climatological normals for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Line of convection developing across cntrl KS will remain north and
west of KC for much of the night. There is a chance that additional
storms could develop closer to MCI around 09Z...but better chances
appear to be just to the north near STJ so thunder was kept out of
the KC terminals for now. Will keep a close eye in case thunder needs
to be added later on.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms likely on Sunday with a cold front
moving into the region. Trends have slowed down the timing of this
front and attendant thunderstorms to the early afternoon hours for
the KC area.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
423 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SUNDAY. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AFTER 13Z AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 1SM WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL BY
LATE MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. FLT CONDS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY BY 00Z MONDAY WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 03Z MONDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 11Z SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 8000 TO 12000 FT AGL AFTER
22Z SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SUNDAY. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AFTER 13Z AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 1SM WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL BY
LATE MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. FLT CONDS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY BY 00Z MONDAY WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 03Z MONDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 11Z SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 8000 TO 12000 FT AGL AFTER
22Z SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ022>028-035>038-056>059-
069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
HAVE CANCELED SEVERE WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA BUT HAVE KEPT THREE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN WATCH 71 AS A PESKY STORM
MIGRATES ACROSS THE BORDER. THIS ONE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY JUST BELOW SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT COULD PULSE UP AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. OTHERWISE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. LATEST RUNS OF RAP
AND HRRR STILL SUGGEST A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIGHTS UP IN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM IN A LINE
FROM RED OAK TO LINCOLN. SEVERE PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH THIS
LINE...BUT HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE. EXPANSION TO THE NORTH THEN
ENSUES THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE 10 PM. SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE HELPED TO INTENSIFY
STORMS THERE EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH SOME REPORTS OF GOLF BALL
HAIL. SEVERE WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL IOWA WAS CANCELLED JUST BEFORE
10 PM EXPIRATION WITH A NEW WATCH ISSUED EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL
HAVE FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES IN A
WATCH THROUGH 2 AM. RADAR TRENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS CONVECTION
SUGGEST STORMS THERE WILL STAY SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE ONLY A COUNTY AWAY AND EARLIER CONVECTION
PRODUCED FAST-MOVING LEFT MOVER THAT DROPPED LARGE HAIL IN FALLS
CITY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN WATCH AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES MAY BE A DIFFERENT
STORY AS STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND LIKELIHOOD OF REDEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS WANING. WILL RE-EVALUATE
THIS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND OVERRIDES SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WOULD
EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO START LIGHTING UP NEAR OR AFTER 4 AM ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TYPE SUNDAY
PRIMARY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.
WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONT CONTINUED TO PRESS SEWD INTO THE AFTN
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARLAN IA TO A LITTLE SE OF OLU AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH BETTER SFC COOLING LAGGED WELL TO THE NORTH. MOST
OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WIND SHIFT HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A SW
COMPONENT TO WIND THAT IT HAD COMBINED WITH MIXING TO LOWER MANY
SFC DWPTS INTO MID 50S OR LOWER...MAIN EXCEPTION THROUGH 20Z FROM
SE CORNER OF NEBR INTO SW IA. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP MIXED LAYER CIN
VALUES STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH IT WEAKENING IN CNTRL IA TOWARD NEBR
CITY PER SPC MESO PAGE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT FIRST OR AT LEAST
HIGHEST CONVECTION CHANCES WOULD BE IN IA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER THAN 18Z RAP AND ALSO 12Z 4KM WRF.
WITH DECENT...ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...DEEP SHEAR AND ML
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2K J/KG....CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND RISK EARLY PROBABLY SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SW THIS EVENING OR NORTH OF BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT LESS
CERTAIN WITH SOME HINTS BY TWO ABOVE SHORTER TERM MODELS
INDICATING A LULL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR NORTH OF OMAHA/LINCOLN BY 12Z. NE NEBR
COULD REMAIN DRY ALL NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO MID/LATE SUN MORNING
PER NAM...BUT INTRODUCED MODEST POPS TOWARD 12Z INCREASING INTO
CATEGORICAL MOST/ALL AREAS THEN TOWARD MIDDAY.
NAM HAD BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON COOLING AIRMASS AS PRECIP FELL NRN
ZONES...EXCEPT FAR NW...AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP COULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...KEPT
A R/S MIX IN ACROSS NERN NEBR. SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE SERN ZONES INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY AS H85 BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR SERN NEBR AND WOULD SUSPECT BEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD FOCUS TOWARD THAT AREA DUE TO LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. HOWEVER...SOME HINT AT A MID LVL FRONTO BAND OF PRECIP
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH THUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED/INCLUDED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE
DAY. MOST TEMPS STEADY/FALLING BUT IF PRECIP WOULD STAY OUT OF
SERN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY COULD SEE A FUTURE NEED FOR A
SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP THERE. WINDS OVER N AND W WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL CONVECTIVE THREAT/PRECIP TRENDS BEFORE THAT PASS
FIRST.
KEPT RAIN/SNOW MIX W/SNOW ON NW FRINGE MENTION IN FORECAST SUN
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTY AS GFS
ENDS BULK OF PRECIP MOST AREAS AS SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SOME WIND/CLOUDS PERSISTING...KEPT LOWS ON OR
ABOVE WARMER GUID VALUES SUN NIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDING
BACK INTO MONDAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE SERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST LOOKS DRY THEN INTO TUE AND WITH INCREASED MIXING ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
KEPT SLGT CHANCE POPS IN WED AFTN FAR NRN ZONES AS 12Z GFS/ECM
BROUGHT NEXT FRONT/TROUGH INTO THAT REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
READINGS SHOULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND IF TRENDS
PERSIST...COULD SEE A NEED FOR FURTHER RAISING IN LATER FORECASTS.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE IN THU/FRI PERIOD AS GFS CLOSES OF A COLD
UPPER TROUGH LOOKING DOWNRIGHT NASTY THU NIGHT NERN NEBR. WHILE
ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...IT TOO TRENDED COLDER. THUS WOULD
THINK SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION WAS STILL WARRANTED WED NGT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT NWRN ZONES AND EVEN EXTENDED MENTION INTO THU
MORNING. COULD FORESEE THIS THREAT BEING SHIFTED SE IF COLD
TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE.
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS WERE MENTIONED PER MODEL BLEND.
HOWEVER...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS LEAD
TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 14Z
TIME FRAME NEAR KLNK AND KOMA...WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTH TO KOFK
BY 15Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
RAIN/THUNDER INITIALLY...THEN MVFR CIGS WILL ENVELOP ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CIGS NEAR FL015 AND VSBYS 3-5SM WITH OCCASIONAL LOWERING OF BOTH
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE BY 15Z AT ALL TAF SITES
AND COULD GUST OVER 40KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT KLNK. AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES. STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU
06Z...THEN CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
THRU 12Z. NO PRECIP.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/13/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1051 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY INITIATING SINCE NOON MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN CARBON
COUNTY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -1C AND PROGD SBCAPE VALUES
OF 200-500 J/KG ARE REALIZED. AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE TURNED
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING
ACROSS COLORADO. AT 20Z...THE BEST PRESSURE RISES WERE FOUND ACROSS
MONTANA AND WRN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN. SATELLITE PIX STILL SHOW
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE DIVING SE THRU THE PACNW AND THE SRN
STREAM ACCELERATING ENE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE NRN STREAM ENERGY FOLLOWS...TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ALTHO THE BULK OF THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...IT HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TRAILING AND STRONGER NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE. AS THE COLD AIR
MASS SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT...PERSISTENT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE IT
WILL SET-UP FAVORABLE OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT. ADDITIONALLY...
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHICS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES. H3 JET COUPLING OF RRQ/LFQ WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE MOIST ASCENT. PROGD BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWS
SATURATION WITHIN THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW EVENT MAINLY IMPACTING SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE KEPT SNOW
AMOUNTS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE INHERITED...POINTING TO 4 TO 8
INCHES BELOW 7500 FEET IN SE WY...WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND MOST
OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE EITHER LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS EXIST OR LOWER ELEVATIONS DELAYS TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS GUST UP TO 35 MPH. THE
ONE QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS WHAT IMPACT IF ANY THE STEEPER SUN
ANGLE HAS DURING THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...
THINK SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS. IN AN
EARLIER UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HAVE ALSO ISSUED ADVISORIES IN COUNTIES
CLOSEST TO THE NEBRASKA STATELINE AND NRN SIOUX COUNTY. DELAYED THE
BEGINNING TIME ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO 3 AM...AS THE
COLDER AIR WILL GET IN A BIT LATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING...SO THE 00Z
MONDAY END TIME OF THE HAZARD STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS ARE GOING
TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE 20S MANY AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
MONDAY...MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DUE TO HIGH ALBEDO FROM THE RECENT SNOWPACK...THOUGH
STILL EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO RATHER HIGH MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL WINDS.
TUESDAY...DECENT WARMING TREND EXPECTED AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO
WEST NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT FROM MONTANA AND IDAHO...BOOSTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S AND SOME LOWER 60S DUE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 0 CELSIUS.
WEDNESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO LIFT FROM CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ADEQUATE
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH LEFTOVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER AND PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FRIDAY...TYPICAL MID APRIL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT...AND OUR COUNTIES WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING...THUS YIELDING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND
OVER THE PINE RIDGE FROM LUSK TO NEAR CHADRON.
SATURDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE. SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP BASED ON PROJECTED 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES...NEAR 5610 METERS AND 2
CELSIUS...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
LATEST HRRR FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR AS WE ARE STILL VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS. BASED ON THIS
TREND...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF A COUPLE HOURS ON IFR CONDITIONS FOR
AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. EVENTUALLY...THE WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...SAY AFTER 08 TO 09Z
AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. SNOW ENDS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SIGNIFICANT
SPRING SNOWSTORM BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ102.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ101-103>105-
110-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ106-107-
115>118.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ108-
112-119.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ095.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Will update the forecast to have higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms further east into central IL today as area of
showers and a few thunderstorms already covering areas west of
I-57 and from I-74 sw. SPC expanded slight risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to areas west of I-57.
Southeast IL se of I-70 should mostly be dry today. Highs this
afternoon range from around 70 nw of the IL river to the upper 70s
over southeast IL. South winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 25 to 35
mph today and strongest over eastern IL. Frontal boundary to stay
nw of central IL into this evening and then cold front to push
east through IL overnight and thru southeast IL early Monday morning.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
A rather challenging forecast for this TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage across west central
Illinois this morning, but will likely take most of the day to
reach as far east as KCMI. Ceilings currently VFR at all TAF sites
and even as far back as central Missouri, where the rain is moving
in from. Ceiling progs from the RAP and HRRR models showing some
brief lowering into MVFR at times, with forecast soundings
becoming more favorable for this toward mid afternoon as the rain
becomes more widespread, especially KBMI-KSPI westward. There will
be some thunder at times, but still some question as to how
widespread it will be, so will leave VCTS mention for now. A sharp
cold front will be moving across the TAF sites from around 06-10Z,
with winds turning northwest and ceilings falling to IFR range.
Winds expected to become gusty around mid morning, with the
highest gusts this afternoon around 30 knots.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Frontal boundary currently extending from the southern Great Lakes
west-southwestward across Iowa into northern Kansas will serve as
the primary focusing mechanism for convection over the next 24
hours. One round of showers/storms aided by 55 to 60kt LLJ has
lifted into southern Wisconsin/far northern Illinois, while
additional storms are beginning to develop further southwest
around the Kansas City area in advance of an upper short-wave
tracking out of the southern Rockies. As this feature pushes
further eastward, showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous across the Mississippi River Valley into west-central
Illinois later this morning. Models continue to suggest that the
far E/SE KILX CWA will remain dry throughout the day, so have
confined POPs to locations west of a Danville to Effingham line.
Will be a windy and warm day as well, with southerly winds gusting
to between 30 and 35 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will range
from around 70 west of the Illinois River, to the upper 70s south
of I-70.
As cold front progresses eastward into the region, occasional showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the board tonight. With
strong convergence along the boundary, ample upper support from
the advancing short-wave, and precipitable water values
approaching 1.50, locally heavy rainfall will be likely. Despite
the threat for high rainfall rates within the storms, the risk for
severe weather will be minimal, as strongest instability/low-level
wind shear will remain focused further southwest from the Ozarks
into east Texas.
Cold front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will occur
during the morning hours, with readings dropping into the upper
30s/lower 40s during the afternoon. Brisk northwesterly winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will make it feel even colder,
with wind-chill values dipping into the upper 20s/lower 30s. In
addition, approaching northern-stream short-wave will keep precip
chances alive despite FROPA. Thermal profiles suggest light rain
showers may mix with snow along/west of I-55 during the afternoon
as 850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range. NAM continues to be
the most aggressive in developing snow across central Illinois
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, while all other models
are much lighter with the QPF within the cold airmass. Given
presence of upper support and adequate moisture profiles, will
carry a chance for snow-showers north of I-70 Monday evening. Any
accumulations will be minor and mainly confined to grassy surfaces
after dark. Once this wave passes, skies will gradually clear from
west to east overnight, allowing lows to drop below freezing.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
After cold and dry conditions on Tuesday with highs only reaching
the 40s, rising upper heights will allow temperatures to warm back
into the 60s by Thursday. Next system of interest is beginning to
come into better focus, with the 00z Apr 13 ECMWF coming into
better agreement with prior runs of the GFS. Both models now bring
an upper wave and its associated frontal boundary into central
Illinois on Friday. Despite decent upper dynamics, instability
appears meager with this system, so will not mention thunder at
this time. Will bring chance POPs for showers into the western
half of the CWA Thursday night, then everywhere on Friday. After
that, a return to dry weather and near normal temperatures in the
60s can be expected for Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
707 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
417 AM CDT
TODAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BOUNDARY WAS DRIVEN
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND THIS TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL HOVER ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. AS FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH STABLE CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE AND EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COUPLED JET STILL PROGGED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE RESULTING IN CYCLOGENENSIS ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
THE WEST. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH PWATS
PUSHING TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CLIPPING
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HEAVY PRECIP
REMAINS A CONCERN THOUGH PRECIP SO FAR HAS UNDERPERFORMED FROM PRIOR
EXPECTATIONS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE FLOOD
THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.
MONDAY...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -11C AND
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES LIFTING UP THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE BULLISH WITH QPF MONDAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE AREA IS BETTER ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR.
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND
A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL HELP SPREAD WARM AIR BACK INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SOUTHWEST LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SECOND ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH BEST
CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING.
* POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA MAY PRODUCE IFR VSBY.
* IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
* WINDS TURN NORTH AND GUST TO 25-30 KT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TODAY AND
THINKING IT WILL IMPACT RFD...ORD...AND DPA. WINDS WILL TURN N TO
NE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN AND
STORMS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO IFR AND THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR VSBY.
INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECTING LIMITED TSRA LATE
THIS EVENING AND JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NORTH
BEHIND THE LOW AND BEGIN GUSTING. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SEEN
AT GYY WITH MAX GUSTS OVER 35 KT PSBL. THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 30 KT. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY
MID MONDAY MORNING AND CIGS LIFT TO MVFR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS SHIFTING DURING THE DAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHEN AND HOW MANY WIND SHIFTS THERE WILL BE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING...BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...-RASN PSBLY BCMG -SN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PSBL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS AS GALES ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
THERE IS A FRONT IN THE TROUGH BUT IT HOLDS A VARIETY OF FORMS AKA
COLD/STATIONARY/WARM AS YOU MOVE ALONG IT...SO WILL REFER TO IT AS A
TROUGH FOR SIMPLICITY. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WHILE THE LOW MOVES UP THE TROUGH AND
PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. NORTH GALES
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW AND EXTEND THROUGH THE NSH WATERS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID AFTN MONDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE RIDGE AND INCREASE TO 30
KT AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE THEN FEATURES EXTREME DIFFERENCES IN THE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST
THURSDAY. FOR REFERENCE THE ECMWF FEATURES A HIGH MOVING OVER THE
LAKE LATE THIS WEEK WHILE THE GFS HAS A LOW MOVING UP THE LAKE AT
THE SAME TIME.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874...10 PM
SUNDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM
MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
634 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Frontal boundary currently extending from the southern Great Lakes
west-southwestward across Iowa into northern Kansas will serve as
the primary focusing mechanism for convection over the next 24
hours. One round of showers/storms aided by 55 to 60kt LLJ has
lifted into southern Wisconsin/far northern Illinois, while
additional storms are beginning to develop further southwest
around the Kansas City area in advance of an upper short-wave
tracking out of the southern Rockies. As this feature pushes
further eastward, showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous across the Mississippi River Valley into west-central
Illinois later this morning. Models continue to suggest that the
far E/SE KILX CWA will remain dry throughout the day, so have
confined POPs to locations west of a Danville to Effingham line.
Will be a windy and warm day as well, with southerly winds gusting
to between 30 and 35 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will range
from around 70 west of the Illinois River, to the upper 70s south
of I-70.
As cold front progresses eastward into the region, occasional showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the board tonight. With
strong convergence along the boundary, ample upper support from
the advancing short-wave, and precipitable water values
approaching 1.50, locally heavy rainfall will be likely. Despite
the threat for high rainfall rates within the storms, the risk for
severe weather will be minimal, as strongest instability/low-level
wind shear will remain focused further southwest from the Ozarks
into east Texas.
Cold front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will occur
during the morning hours, with readings dropping into the upper
30s/lower 40s during the afternoon. Brisk northwesterly winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will make it feel even colder,
with wind-chill values dipping into the upper 20s/lower 30s. In
addition, approaching northern-stream short-wave will keep precip
chances alive despite FROPA. Thermal profiles suggest light rain
showers may mix with snow along/west of I-55 during the afternoon
as 850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range. NAM continues to be
the most aggressive in developing snow across central Illinois
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, while all other models
are much lighter with the QPF within the cold airmass. Given
presence of upper support and adequate moisture profiles, will
carry a chance for snow-showers north of I-70 Monday evening. Any
accumulations will be minor and mainly confined to grassy surfaces
after dark. Once this wave passes, skies will gradually clear from
west to east overnight, allowing lows to drop below freezing.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
After cold and dry conditions on Tuesday with highs only reaching
the 40s, rising upper heights will allow temperatures to warm back
into the 60s by Thursday. Next system of interest is beginning to
come into better focus, with the 00z Apr 13 ECMWF coming into
better agreement with prior runs of the GFS. Both models now bring
an upper wave and its associated frontal boundary into central
Illinois on Friday. Despite decent upper dynamics, instability
appears meager with this system, so will not mention thunder at
this time. Will bring chance POPs for showers into the western
half of the CWA Thursday night, then everywhere on Friday. After
that, a return to dry weather and near normal temperatures in the
60s can be expected for Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
A rather challenging forecast for this TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage across west central
Illinois this morning, but will likely take most of the day to
reach as far east as KCMI. Ceilings currently VFR at all TAF sites
and even as far back as central Missouri, where the rain is moving
in from. Ceiling progs from the RAP and HRRR models showing some
brief lowering into MVFR at times, with forecast soundings
becoming more favorable for this toward mid afternoon as the rain
becomes more widespread, especially KBMI-KSPI westward. There will
be some thunder at times, but still some question as to how
widespread it will be, so will leave VCTS mention for now. A sharp
cold front will be moving across the TAF sites from around 06-10Z,
with winds turning northwest and ceilings falling to IFR range.
Winds expected to become gusty around mid morning, with the
highest gusts this afternoon around 30 knots.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
655 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AN UNSETTLED AVIATION FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
TODAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST
OF SYSTEM ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF FOR THIS
CHANCE. COULD SEE A TEMPO GROUP ADDED LATER TODAY FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS
AREA AS WELL.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH KRSL AND KSLN AT THIS TIME...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS DEVELOPING. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH INTO KHUT/KICT BY AROUND
16-19Z WITH A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME
POST FRONTAL SHRA/-RA AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
COULD SEE THE RAIN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR
KCNU BY AROUND 09Z/MON. AS THIS SNOW CHANCE DEVELOPS...COULD SEE
SOME CIGS FLIRT WITH IFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 81 33 43 24 / 60 50 50 0
HUTCHINSON 75 30 44 24 / 60 60 30 0
NEWTON 78 31 42 24 / 70 50 40 0
ELDORADO 79 33 42 25 / 80 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 35 44 25 / 80 40 40 0
RUSSELL 58 29 46 23 / 70 70 10 0
GREAT BEND 61 28 46 22 / 70 70 20 0
SALINA 67 30 46 23 / 80 70 20 0
MCPHERSON 72 30 44 24 / 60 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 78 38 45 26 / 80 90 50 0
CHANUTE 77 36 44 24 / 80 80 50 0
IOLA 76 36 43 24 / 80 80 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 77 37 45 24 / 80 80 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-
067.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTN GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. STORMS INCREASING ACROSS DALLAS METRO...AND THESE WILL
TRACK INTO NW CWA...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THERE. EXPANDED
CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...LEAVING ONLY EXTREME EASTERN
CWA IN SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS STILL SHOWING STORMS BECOME MORE
INTENSE DURG AFTN...AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO EASILY ACHIEVE 80 DEGREE FCST...AND STG LOW LVL SHEAR ALREADY
IN PLACE. SO SVR ALREADY IN FCST REMAINS JUSTIFIED. LAKE WIND
AGAIN TODAY APPEARS MARGINAL...WILL DECIDE LATER THIS AFTN WHETHER
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE THE AREAS TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR
35HDFT-4KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS INTO THE TX TERMINAL WHERE HRRR-3KM
REFLECTIVITY DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. WOULD OBVIOUSLY EXPECT LOWER
CEILINGS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS GOING FOR THESE TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LATER
TODAY...MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL
THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR TERMINALS UNTIL
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON.
UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE
13-16KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING 22-25KTS ACROSS MOST
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 30KTS BY AFTERNOON
AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS GOING AS NEW CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS N TX/S OK IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT MERGER AND THAT CONVECTION WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 66 36 62 / 50 60 40 20 10
MLU 80 66 70 36 60 / 20 60 50 40 10
DEQ 75 54 56 31 61 / 60 70 30 10 10
TXK 78 58 60 34 61 / 60 70 30 10 10
ELD 78 63 64 33 60 / 40 70 50 30 10
TYR 79 56 61 34 62 / 50 50 30 10 10
GGG 79 59 61 35 62 / 50 50 30 10 10
LFK 81 65 67 36 63 / 50 50 40 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
635 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE THE AREAS TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR
35HDFT-4KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS INTO THE TX TERMINAL WHERE HRRR-3KM
REFLECTIVITY DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. WOULD OBVIOUSLY EXPECT LOWER
CEILINGS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS GOING FOR THESE TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LATER
TODAY...MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL
THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR TERMINALS UNTIL
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON.
UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE
13-16KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING 22-25KTS ACROSS MOST
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 30KTS BY AFTERNOON
AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS GOING AS NEW CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS N TX/S OK IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT MERGER AND THAT CONVECTION WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 66 36 62 / 30 60 40 20 10
MLU 80 66 70 36 60 / 20 60 50 40 10
DEQ 75 54 56 31 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
TXK 78 58 60 34 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
ELD 78 63 64 33 60 / 20 70 50 30 10
TYR 79 56 61 34 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
GGG 79 59 61 35 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
LFK 81 65 67 36 63 / 30 50 40 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 80 64 66 36 62 / 30 60 40 20 10
MLU 80 66 70 36 60 / 20 60 50 40 10
DEQ 75 54 56 31 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
TXK 78 58 60 34 61 / 40 70 30 10 10
ELD 78 63 64 33 60 / 20 70 50 30 10
TYR 79 56 61 34 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
GGG 79 59 61 35 62 / 30 50 30 10 10
LFK 81 65 67 36 63 / 30 50 40 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OCCUR JUST PRECEEDING THE LONG TERM. KEPT HIGHER LIKELY POPS
OVER EAST THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY AS LAST PUSH OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE MAY GENERATE UP TO 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1 INCH OF WET SNOW. AWAY FM THIS AREA OF
SNOW...HAVE JUST SOME SMALL CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GAPS IN WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST AND OVERALL WILL BE SEEING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. QUITE COOL...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C
ON TUESDAY IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGHING. EVEN WITH GAPS OF OPEN
WATER OVER ESPECIALLY WEST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIR IS DRY IN
THE LARGER SCALE. SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V
LOOK...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO THE THIN MOIST LAYER AROUND
H85. BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...BUT EVEN THIS AFFECT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS LARGER SCALE
LOW-LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MOST NOTEABLE WILL BE
THE COLD...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING TO THE UPR TEENS OR
LOWER 20S BY LATE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 DEGREES...EVEN OVER SCNTRL. NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL END UP 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOL TEMPS FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY TEENS EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT
ANY INTERIOR LOCATION ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT CLEARS OUT BRIEFLY AND
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS STILL SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS OVER ITS LAST 5 RUNS BACK TO
00Z ON 12 APRIL. ECMWF RATHER INSISTENT INDICATING WIDESPREAD QPF
WILL BE MORE FROM DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
CWA TO LK SUPERIOR. GFS IDEA IS MORE OR LESS SUPPORTED BY LAST
COUPLE GEM-NH RUNS AND 12Z/12 APRIL RUN OF UKMET. DIVING IN MORE IT
APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS LOOK SIMILAR IN THE
LARGER SCALE /LEAD SHORTWAVE INITIALIZING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE STRONGER/LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA/ THEY DIFFER IN HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. GFS IS SLOWER TO PHASE THUS BRINGS SFC LOW
FARTHER EAST INITIALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PHASES QUICKER AND LIFTS THE
LOW MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EMERGE OUT OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS OF PRIMARY MODELS
INDICATES HIGH CHANCES OVER CWA...BEGINNING VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS ALL CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EASTERN CWA. PTYPE MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS OVER SCNTRL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST CWA PER BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3 G/KG INDICATE
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN
OF ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS/GEM-NH IDEAS. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF HWOMQT NOW THOUGH SINCE AS THIS IS THE FIRST
ECMWF RUN TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES BY FRIDAY AS RECENT RUNS OF GFS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TOWARD 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS UPPER LAKES. ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
ALL WHILE THE GEM-NH SHOWS SOME IDEA THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP...
JUST NOT AS STRONG AS GFS. CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS
INPUT... GIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MANUALLY
TWEAKED THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT ALONE OTHERWISE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED TEMPS INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHETHER
ANY SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY. IF SO...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF NOT...INLAND AREAS AWAY FM
THE LAKES COULD REACH LOWER 50S ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS H85
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH AN UPSLOPE E WIND WITHIN SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT VLIFR/BLO LANDING
MINS TO PERSIST AT CMX/SAW THROUGH MID MORNING. IWD MAY ALSO DROP
BACK TO IFR AS NW UPSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SFC LOW THAT IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE
OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN AREA...SOME SN/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN TO SAW THIS EVENING. BUT SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS FCST THE
HEAVIER PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE SE...WILL HAVE MFR CONDITIONS THAT
DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
RIVER HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS AT RKLM4/FRDM4 AND EVEN AT
MSQM4 OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BROKEN AND RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF. AS OF THIS MORNING...NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM THE ICE
JAMS. SEEMS THAT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK /HIGHS 20S TO
30S WITH LOWS WELL BLO FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/...WE
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE END OF THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH
4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS
THAT WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
956 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ADDED OCCASIONAL FLURRIES LATE THIS MORNING TO SECTIONS OF THE
ARROWHEAD AND GOT RID OF MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG TO THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A SOMEWHAT BUSY SFC PRESS PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
ID ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS SFC LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH
STRETCHING INTO SRN WISC/MICHIGAN. AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER CTRL
CANADA..AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AS ADVERTISED FROM SRN
BDRY NORTH INTO A WEAK SFC WAVE OVER NWRN ONTARIO. A WELL DEFINED
LOW LVL THETAE RIBBON ALONG WITH A DISTINCT WINDSHIFT IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE BDRY AS
SFC PGF IS INCREASING QUICKLY. SPOTTY PRECIP IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
BORDERLAND AT THIS HOUR. IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS A RELATIVE
BENIGN LOW LVL WIND PATTERN... COMBINED WITH VERY LOW COND PRESS
DEFICITS IN THE BDRY LYR... HAS ALLOWED LOCALLY DENSE FOG/AND LITE
PRECIP TO LINGER NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT...MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
TODAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
MID MORNING AS WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC BDRY PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. A DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WINDS AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FAVORED WITHIN A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER. MID LVL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK OVER NRN PLAINS AND THIS MAY ALLOW NRN FRINGE OF
PRECIP FROM PLAINS SYSTEM TO EDGE INTO SERN CWA. MULTI MDL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. MAX TEMPS BLO CLIMO WITH CAA AND ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDY COVER. FCST 925/850 LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY CU MAY BE FAVORED OVER NRN/ERN CWA IN THE AFTN HRS.
TONIGHT...MID LVL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER WRN MN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW OVER SERN CWA
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG ACCUMULATION. SREF
PLUMES AT KPBH SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH MEAN NEAR AN INCH.
TOMORROW...MAIN STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID
LVL TROF OVER THE CWA WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES. MDLS ARE SKIMPY ON PRECIP HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE UPPER FEATURE AND THE TIME OF YEAR WOULD SUSPECT THAT
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE DAY. WELL MIXED BDRY LAYER LOOKS
LIKELY AS FCST MIXING LAYER HEIGHT REACHES 6K TO 7K FT DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN IN MANY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS EVEN LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO A DROP OF ABOUT 4C TO 6C WITHIN
THE FCST 925/85H LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW MID WEEK. MOST OF THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL.
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
EMPHASIS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS QUITE A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN THE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN
A BIG BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO RECEIVE SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LOOK
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT FGEN THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL...AND COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED BANDS OF SNOWFALL.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW QUITE A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
DEVELOPS IT INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
THEM RISING LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND....WITH 1SM TO 3SM IN
FOG IN SPOTS. CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD RISE THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS WELL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE RAP IS SLOWER TO LIFT CEILINGS TO VFR THAN WHAT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL RH SUGGEST. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP.
MOST AREAS SHOULD RISE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 21 31 16 / 0 10 20 10
INL 35 15 27 9 / 10 10 20 10
BRD 39 22 34 16 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 41 23 34 11 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 41 24 32 15 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJT
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
702 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A SOMEWHAT BUSY SFC PRESS PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
ID ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS SFC LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH
STRETCHING INTO SRN WISC/MICHIGAN. AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER CTRL
CANADA..AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AS ADVERTISED FROM SRN
BDRY NORTH INTO A WEAK SFC WAVE OVER NWRN ONTARIO. A WELL DEFINED
LOW LVL THETAE RIBBON ALONG WITH A DISTINCT WINDSHIFT IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE BDRY AS
SFC PGF IS INCREASING QUICKLY. SPOTTY PRECIP IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
BORDERLAND AT THIS HOUR. IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS A RELATIVE
BENIGN LOW LVL WIND PATTERN... COMBINED WITH VERY LOW COND PRESS
DEFICITS IN THE BDRY LYR... HAS ALLOWED LOCALLY DENSE FOG/AND LITE
PRECIP TO LINGER NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT...MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
TODAY...EARLY MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
MID MORNING AS WINDSHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC BDRY PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. A DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WINDS AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS FAVORED WITHIN A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER. MID LVL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK OVER NRN PLAINS AND THIS MAY ALLOW NRN FRINGE OF
PRECIP FROM PLAINS SYSTEM TO EDGE INTO SERN CWA. MULTI MDL QPF
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. MAX TEMPS BLO CLIMO WITH CAA AND ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDY COVER. FCST 925/850 LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY CU MAY BE FAVORED OVER NRN/ERN CWA IN THE AFTN HRS.
TONIGHT...MID LVL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER WRN MN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW OVER SERN CWA
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG ACCUMULATION. SREF
PLUMES AT KPBH SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH MEAN NEAR AN INCH.
TOMORROW...MAIN STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID
LVL TROF OVER THE CWA WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES. MDLS ARE SKIMPY ON PRECIP HOWEVER GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE UPPER FEATURE AND THE TIME OF YEAR WOULD SUSPECT THAT
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
MAY BE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND TREND TOWARDS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THE DAY. WELL MIXED BDRY LAYER LOOKS
LIKELY AS FCST MIXING LAYER HEIGHT REACHES 6K TO 7K FT DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN IN MANY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS EVEN LOWER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO A DROP OF ABOUT 4C TO 6C WITHIN
THE FCST 925/85H LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW MID WEEK. MOST OF THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL.
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS DRY. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT.
EMPHASIS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS QUITE A BIT
FASTER BRINGING IN THE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN
A BIG BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION. THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO RECEIVE SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LOOK
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT FGEN THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL...AND COULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED BANDS OF SNOWFALL.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW QUITE A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
DEVELOPS IT INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
THEM RISING LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND....WITH 1SM TO 3SM IN
FOG IN SPOTS. CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD RISE THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS WELL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE RAP IS SLOWER TO LIFT CEILINGS TO VFR THAN WHAT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL RH SUGGEST. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE RAP.
MOST AREAS SHOULD RISE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 21 31 16 / 10 10 20 10
INL 35 15 27 9 / 10 10 20 10
BRD 41 22 34 16 / 10 10 0 10
HYR 43 23 34 11 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 42 24 32 15 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1027 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
It is a very mild and breezy morning across southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures this morning are where our
normal highs would be for this time of year. Some convection is
already developing across portions of southeast Kansas this
morning. This will continue to further develop and move northward.
The 00z 4KM WFR model shows this development well and think that
the model has a good handle of the evolution of storms today and
this evening for the area.
All the 00z suite of models show convection developing by 18z
across southwestern Missouri into central Missouri in the warm
sector. Bulk shear will be up to 50 knots. Instability will
between 1000-1200 J/KG. 0-3KM Storm Relative Helicities will be
up to 500 M2/S2. This convection may be strong to severe with the
primary threats large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be
a low potential for an isolated tornado or two mainly late this
afternoon into the early evening hours with the better potential
over southeast Kansas into extreme southwestern Missouri.
A strong to severe line of storms will be developing along the
advancing cold front by 00z across southeast Kansas into western
Missouri. The main threat again will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The front will slowly undercut the line of storms
through the evening hours as it advances southeastward. The front
will be through Springfield before Midnight and through the
eastern Ozarks before 6 am. Storm total rainfall will be around 1
inch with isolated amounts up to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Much colder air will be moving in on gusty northerly winds by
Monday morning. The main trough will be moving through the area by
the midday and early afternoon hours. Monday will be a shock
compared to the nice warm weather this weekend. Cloudy and dreary
conditions with north winds gusting up to 35 mph...off and on rain
showers with temperatures falling most of the day into the middle
and upper 30s...Wind chills will be in the 20s.
There is still indications from the models and forecast soundings
that enough cold air aloft will be available for either some wet
snow mixing in or changing over by late morning to midday on
Monday. The better potential for seeing wet snow falling will be
along and north of the I-44 corridor and the higher elevations of
the Ozark Plateau. No accumulations are expected with the warm
ground temperatures and the air temperatures will be in the middle
to upper 30s.
Skies will clear from west to east Monday evening and temperatures
will continue to drop as the Canadian high pressure moves in.
There is high confidence that most of the area will see
temperatures in the middle to upper 20s Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Some patchy to areas of frost may occur if the wind relax
enough and in sheltered areas. Will go ahead and issue a Freeze
Watch area wide for Monday night.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the middle of the week.
May see another round of frost and near freezing temperatures
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near
seasonable averages by Thursday before another trough and cold
front moves through and briefly cools temperatures back down for
the end of the week. A good chance of showers will accompanying
the cold front late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions today into
tonight.
VFR ceilings and scattered showers will prevail through midday
with some areas of MVFR ceilings. Gusty southerly winds will
continue through the day with frequent gusts over 25 kts. Low
level wind shear will persist early this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase from the west late this
afternoon into the this evening ahead of advancing cold front.
Some of the storms along the front could be strong to possibly
severe.
MVFR to IFR conditions along with a wind shift to the northwest
will follow the frontal passage this evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
929 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO COOL HOURLY TEMPERATURES A BIT QUICKER
THAN WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AS WELL AS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SNOW AND RAIN IS ONGOING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FREEZING LINE WAS ROUGHLY FROM KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW...HOWEVER LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR ALOFT HAS COOLED
SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE SNOW FALLING ALTHOUGH WHERE IT
IS WARMER IT MAY MELT ON CONTACT. THIS IS ALSO BEING CONFIRMED BY
DUAL-POL RADAR AS THERE IS A CC DISCONTINUITY FROM AROUND KIML TO
KLBF TO KONL...SO EITHER A MIX OR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WFO GID FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND NOW ARE DEVELOPING WEST THROUGH THE WFO GLD
FCST AREA...AIMED AT SWRN NEB. SO THIS UPDATE IS FOR THE ISOLATED
STORMS. NOTE THE RAP MAINTAINS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WELL EAST
OF THIS AREA OF DEVELOPMENT SO THIS IS AN UNEXPECTED BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING
BEFORE OUR SECOND HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NEZ004-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
727 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WFO GID FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND NOW ARE DEVELOPING WEST THROUGH THE WFO GLD
FCST AREA...AIMED AT SWRN NEB. SO THIS UPDATE IS FOR THE ISOLATED
STORMS. NOTE THE RAP MAINTAINS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WELL EAST
OF THIS AREA OF DEVELOPMENT SO THIS IS AN UNEXPECTED BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING
BEFORE OUR SECOND HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
717 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LOCAL LIFR FROM BIG SPRINGS TO BREWSTER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY AND EXIT THE FCST AREA AROUND 00Z. VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
WINDS TODAY 36027G40KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SUNDAY. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AFTER 13Z AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE
MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 1SM WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL BY
LATE MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. FLT CONDS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY BY 00Z MONDAY WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AFTER 03Z MONDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 11Z SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2SM...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. VFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 8000 TO 12000 FT AGL AFTER
22Z SUNDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1021 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT BELOW NORMAL PERIOD SETTING UP EARLY ON AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER THE MIDDLE 40S
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE
NEXT WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VLY WITH THIS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WELL WEST OF OUR FCST AREA. THAT
SAID...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WOUND-UP CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AS ONE
CAN IMAGINE THE FORMER OFFERS A WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE LATTER.
BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES AND DISTANCE OUT INTO THE FCST
PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE. LGT RAIN SHWRS
EARLY ON IN THE VICINITY OF SYR AND RME WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NY. AS THE HEATING CYCLE
BEGINS...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS LIKELY UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY UPPER CI EXPECTED AFTER 04Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURS...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
825 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT BELOW NORMAL PERIOD SETTING UP EARLY ON AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER THE MIDDLE 40S
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE
NEXT WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VLY WITH THIS LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WELL WEST OF OUR FCST AREA. THAT
SAID...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WOUND-UP CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AS ONE
CAN IMAGINE THE FORMER OFFERS A WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE LATTER.
BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES AND DISTANCE OUT INTO THE FCST
PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE. LGT RAIN SHWRS
EARLY ON IN THE VICINITY OF SYR AND RME WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NY. AS THE HEATING CYCLE
BEGINS...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS LIKELY UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY UPPER CI EXPECTED AFTER 04Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURS...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING DAY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH IS WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IT CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS EXPANDED OVERHEAD...FORCING
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON
12Z KCHS SOUNDING WITH MOISTURE ONLY PRESENT ABOVE 300MB...AND NOTED
LOCALLY BY WIDESPREAD AIRCRAFT CONTRAILS PERSISTING OUTSIDE THE ILM
WFO THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE SOARED ABOVE ANY OF THE FORECAST CURVES
THUS FAR...AND HAVE BUMPED INHERITED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD 80+ EXPECTED TODAY...MID 70S AT
THE BEACHES.
HRRR ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...AND HAVE CARRIED A TOKEN 5% POP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...EXPECT IT IS ONCE AGAIN OVERDOING
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NOTING HOW DRY SOUNDINGS ARE AND HOW SIGNIFICANT
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO
BECOME MODERATE AND WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY...BUT NO PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON A
SLOWLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL DROP TO
A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 60 BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE CAROLINAS
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FURTHER OFF SHORE. AS THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY A DEEP S TO SW FLO WILL
DEVELOP. WILL BASICALLY SEE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM
ENVIRONMENT AS WE TAP INTO BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON EVENING. THE
MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE PROFILES
AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER RH LEVELS CONFINED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS AND BELOW H50...BUT BY MON EVENING INTO TUES INCREASING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHC OF PCP MON NIGHT INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S AND WITH
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 60S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
GENERATING COASTAL SHOWERS FEEDING ON SHORE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY NOON ON TUES A LLJ INCREASES UP TO 45 KTS. LOOKS LIKE
THE THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL COME THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO THE EVENING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE GREATEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER DAMAGING WINDS. SPC INCLUDED CAROLINAS IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR TUES WITH WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT MENTION OF
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND PCP WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES...TEMPS WILL REACH CLOSER TO 80 WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM AROUND 14 C DOWN CLOSE TO 6C IN COOL NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS
MAY BE TRICKY ON WED. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE
PRESENT TO OFFSET THIS CAA AND THEREFORE EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA. THEREFORE DEPENDING ON QUICKLY WE CLEAR
AND HOW MUCH SUN WE GET...COULD MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE WED
AFTN TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AN ALMOST 20 DEGREE DROP FROM
PREVIOUS DAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI WHILE THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN
DEVELOPS WITH WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME DECENT WEATHER THROUGH WED INTO
THURS WITH INCREASING LIFT WITH CLOUDS AND PCP MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL
THINK GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL ENTER INTO THE FORECAST
BY LATE THURS THROUGH FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BUT
WARMING EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHES OF DENSE FOG INLAND WILL MIX OUT SOMETIME
BETWEEN 13-14Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. THE RUC HAS ABOUT 1000 CAPE
BY MIDDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE HRRR KICKS OFF A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS BY 16Z...BUT THINK IT WILL BE SPRINKLE AT MOST.
MORE THAN LIKELY JUST MODERATE CU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY...PICKING UP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST MIXING CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...VERY CALM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS ACTUALLY REPORTING 0 KTS OF WIND
WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT AND CALM CONDITIONS...AND
ALTHOUGH S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS LATER
TODAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SEAS OF 1-2 FT CURRENTLY WILL RISE TO 2-3 FT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL AND SE WIND WAVE
COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WITH S-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS BY AFTN AND UP TO 15 TO
20 KTS BY MON NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS
UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY MON EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO TO INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH
TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING BUT
WILL REMAIN HIGH IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT
INTO WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL LAST
AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED IN WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 6 TO 8 FT EARLY WED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE
AND LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY THURS WITH SEAS
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS...BUT REMAINING 4 TO
6 FT THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
710 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM UPDATE...I HAVE
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PER OBSERVATIONS...THE DRY COLUMN AND
FADING...FOR THE MOMENT...CIRRUS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP A
BIT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO ADDED MORE PATCHY FOG.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WONDERFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE ONLY
GAME IN TOWN IS THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE PERIODS.
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE BUT THE NAM/MET NUMBERS HAVE A SLIGHT
EDGE...WARMER AND WENT WITH THESE NUMBERS. &&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE CAROLINAS
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FURTHER OFF SHORE. AS THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY A DEEP S TO SW FLO WILL
DEVELOP. WILL BASICALLY SEE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM
ENVIRONMENT AS WE TAP INTO BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON EVENING. THE
MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE PROFILES
AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER RH LEVELS CONFINED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS AND BELOW H50...BUT BY MON EVENING INTO TUES INCREASING
WINDS WILL PROVIDE DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHC OF PCP MON NIGHT INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S AND WITH
CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 60S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
GENERATING COASTAL SHOWERS FEEDING ON SHORE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
THROUGH TUESDAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES BY NOON ON TUES A LLJ INCREASES UP TO 45 KTS. LOOKS LIKE
THE THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL COME THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO THE EVENING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE GREATEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER DAMAGING WINDS. SPC INCLUDED CAROLINAS IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR TUES WITH WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT MENTION OF
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND PCP WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES...TEMPS WILL REACH CLOSER TO 80 WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS PLUMMET
FROM AROUND 14 C DOWN CLOSE TO 6C IN COOL NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS
MAY BE TRICKY ON WED. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE
PRESENT TO OFFSET THIS CAA AND THEREFORE EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA. THEREFORE DEPENDING ON QUICKLY WE CLEAR
AND HOW MUCH SUN WE GET...COULD MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE WED
AFTN TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AN ALMOST 20 DEGREE DROP FROM
PREVIOUS DAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURS INTO FRI WHILE THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN
DEVELOPS WITH WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME DECENT WEATHER THROUGH WED INTO
THURS WITH INCREASING LIFT WITH CLOUDS AND PCP MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL
THINK GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL ENTER INTO THE FORECAST
BY LATE THURS THROUGH FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BUT
WARMING EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHES OF DENSE FOG INLAND WILL MIX OUT SOMETIME
BETWEEN 13-14Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. THE RUC HAS ABOUT 1000 CAPE
BY MIDDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE HRRR KICKS OFF A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS BY 16Z...BUT THINK IT WILL BE SPRINKLE AT MOST.
MORE THAN LIKELY JUST MODERATE CU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
TODAY...PICKING UP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST MIXING CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FOG.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...JUST LIKE THE PUBLIC PART OF THE
FORECAST...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE TRANQUIL AS WILL. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE PROVIDING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS...PROBABLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE. THE
FETCH HAS BEEN IN PLACE A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW BUT THE WAVE SPECTRUM
IS STILL PRIMARILY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT MUCH OF THE
SAME TODAY AS WE SAW SATURDAY...2-3 FEET.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WITH S-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS BY AFTN AND UP TO 15 TO
20 KTS BY MON NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS
UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY MON EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO TO INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH
TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING BUT
WILL REMAIN HIGH IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT
INTO WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL LAST
AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED IN WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 6 TO 8 FT EARLY WED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE
AND LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY THURS WITH SEAS
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS...BUT REMAINING 4 TO
6 FT THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
747 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGES. ALSO INCREASE SKY THERE FOR CONSISTENCY. REST OF
FORECAST REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6 AM UPDATE. WIDELY SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...ON THE NOSE OF AN 850
MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THESE ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF PERRY...VINTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE JUST
A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO WILL DECREASE TO JUST MAINLY THIN CIRRUS DURING THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF AREA NO CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXCEPT FOR CEILINGS AROUND 8000 FEET AND A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THRU 14Z...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 06Z WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.
CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
614 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.
STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. WIDELY SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...ON THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THESE ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
PERRY...VINTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER DAWN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL DECREASE TO
JUST MAINLY THIN CIRRUS DURING THE DAY. REMAINDER OF AREA NO CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...BUT
STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT 06Z MONDAY.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH BY 15Z UPON MIXING THRU HEATING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AROUND 00Z
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXCEPT FOR CEILINGS AROUND 8000 FEET AND A
BRIEF SHOWER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THRU 14Z...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS THRU 06Z WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.
CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET RAPIDLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THRU 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENTLY MOVING OVER THE
COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INTENSE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN SUMMIT COUNTY FOR THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS. LIGHTNING NETWORKS HAVE SHOWN SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GUNNISON AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS
EVENING. WITH THE MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT THE PRESENT TIME...WILL CONTINUE ALL OF THE WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
BY MID-EVENING.
CONCERNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS...MESOSCALE AND HI-RES
MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE RAP DOES SHOW 3-4+
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY NEW
ADVISORIES...BUT WILL BE MENTIONING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN
THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL BE MENTIONING AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.
LATER TONIGHT...THE MODELS ALL POINT TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS TROUGH AND RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH SOME WARMING WHICH WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE AMOUNTS OF SOIL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT
SNOW EVENT.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRYING AND
A WARMING TREND WITH READINGS BACK TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
BUT GFS STILL SHOWING THE STRONGEST AND DEEPEST SOLUTION. WITH A
BIT BETTER CONTINUITY WILL TREND LOWER TEMPERATURES AND A BIT
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY AND WARMER AGAIN FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR...BUT WILL GENERATLLY BE LESS
THAN ONE-HALF INCH PER HOUR. AS TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL INCREASE. NORTH WINDS GUSTING
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ANY BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BEGIN APPROVING
BY ABOUT 03Z WITH SNOW ENDING AROUND 06Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ030-
032-037>040-043-045>047.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033>036-041.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1121 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
417 AM CDT
TODAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BOUNDARY WAS DRIVEN
SOUTH OVERNIGHT BY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND THIS TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL HOVER ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. AS FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH STABLE CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE AND EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COUPLED JET STILL PROGGED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE RESULTING IN CYCLOGENENSIS ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING NORTHERN ILLINOIS FROM
THE WEST. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH PWATS
PUSHING TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN IOWA TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CLIPPING
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. HEAVY PRECIP
REMAINS A CONCERN THOUGH PRECIP SO FAR HAS UNDERPERFORMED FROM PRIOR
EXPECTATIONS AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE FLOOD
THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.
MONDAY...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WILL DRIVE H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -11C AND
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES LIFTING UP THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE BULLISH WITH QPF MONDAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE AREA IS BETTER ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR.
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND
A GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS WILL HELP SPREAD WARM AIR BACK INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SOUTHWEST LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT ARRIVING BY 1630-17Z.
* IFR CIGS ARRIVING BY 18Z AND VSBY LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR BY 19Z.
* PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVIEST COULD PRODUCE
IFR VSBY.
* WINDS TURN NORTH AND GUST TO 25-30 KT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER AREA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. MAIN CHANGE IN TAF WAS TO BRING SHIFT
TO EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS TO ORD SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND
ALSO INCLUDE MDW IN WIND SHIFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SHIFT
COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 17 OR 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN GYY
SEEING SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS WI SO
THESE SHOULD DEVELOP SOMETIME AFTER THE SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING
NOW AT ORD/MDW. OTHER CHALLENGE IS WITH SHRA/TSRA TRENDS...AS A
COMPLEX LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM IOWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST OCNL EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL ARRIVE A BIT SOONER AT THE
EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT DURATION COULD BE SHORTER THAN INDICATED
IN TEMPO GROUP IN TAF. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS OBSERVATIONAL AND
RADAR TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO WIND/CIG/AND SHRA/TSRA FORECAST.
FROM 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER TODAY AND
THINKING IT WILL IMPACT RFD...ORD...AND DPA. WINDS WILL TURN N TO
NE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN AND
STORMS SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO IFR AND THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR VSBY.
INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECTING LIMITED TSRA LATE
THIS EVENING AND JUST SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN NORTH
BEHIND THE LOW AND BEGIN GUSTING. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SEEN
AT GYY WITH MAX GUSTS OVER 35 KT PSBL. THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 30 KT. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY
MID MONDAY MORNING AND CIGS LIFT TO MVFR.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST...LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF SHIFT BACK TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS...MEDIUM-HIGH IN ARRIVAL BY
1730-18Z.
* HIGH IN VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR IN BR...MEDIUM IN TIMING...AND
MEDIUM IN POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY IN BR AND HEAVIEST SHRA/TSRA.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SHRA/TSRA TRENDS AND TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST OCNL TSRA AT THE TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LATE
TONIGHT...MEDIUM IN TIMING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...-RASN PSBLY BCMG -SN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PSBL.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
HEADLINES...WILL UPGRADE THE GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS AS GALES ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
THERE IS A FRONT IN THE TROUGH BUT IT HOLDS A VARIETY OF FORMS AKA
COLD/STATIONARY/WARM AS YOU MOVE ALONG IT...SO WILL REFER TO IT AS A
TROUGH FOR SIMPLICITY. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
END OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WHILE THE LOW MOVES UP THE TROUGH AND
PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. NORTH GALES
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW AND EXTEND THROUGH THE NSH WATERS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID AFTN MONDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE RIDGE AND INCREASE TO 30
KT AS A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE THEN FEATURES EXTREME DIFFERENCES IN THE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST
THURSDAY. FOR REFERENCE THE ECMWF FEATURES A HIGH MOVING OVER THE
LAKE LATE THIS WEEK WHILE THE GFS HAS A LOW MOVING UP THE LAKE AT
THE SAME TIME.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 PM SUNDAY TO 4
AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM
MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874...10 PM
SUNDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM
MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Will update the forecast to have higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms further east into central IL today as area of
showers and a few thunderstorms already covering areas west of
I-57 and from I-74 sw. SPC expanded slight risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to areas west of I-57.
Southeast IL se of I-70 should mostly be dry today. Highs this
afternoon range from around 70 nw of the IL river to the upper 70s
over southeast IL. South winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 25 to 35
mph today and strongest over eastern IL. Frontal boundary to stay
nw of central IL into this evening and then cold front to push
east through IL overnight and thru southeast IL early Monday morning.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
A rather challenging forecast for this TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage across west central
Illinois this morning, but will likely take most of the day to
reach as far east as KCMI. Ceilings currently VFR at all TAF sites
and even as far back as central Missouri, where the rain is moving
in from. Ceiling progs from the RAP and HRRR models showing some
brief lowering into MVFR at times, with forecast soundings
becoming more favorable for this toward mid afternoon as the rain
becomes more widespread, especially KBMI-KSPI westward. There will
be some thunder at times, but still some question as to how
widespread it will be, so will leave VCTS mention for now. A sharp
cold front will be moving across the TAF sites from around 06-10Z,
with winds turning northwest and ceilings falling to IFR range.
Winds expected to become gusty around mid morning, with the
highest gusts this afternoon around 30 knots.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday
Frontal boundary currently extending from the southern Great Lakes
west-southwestward across Iowa into northern Kansas will serve as
the primary focusing mechanism for convection over the next 24
hours. One round of showers/storms aided by 55 to 60kt LLJ has
lifted into southern Wisconsin/far northern Illinois, while
additional storms are beginning to develop further southwest
around the Kansas City area in advance of an upper short-wave
tracking out of the southern Rockies. As this feature pushes
further eastward, showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous across the Mississippi River Valley into west-central
Illinois later this morning. Models continue to suggest that the
far E/SE KILX CWA will remain dry throughout the day, so have
confined POPs to locations west of a Danville to Effingham line.
Will be a windy and warm day as well, with southerly winds gusting
to between 30 and 35 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will range
from around 70 west of the Illinois River, to the upper 70s south
of I-70.
As cold front progresses eastward into the region, occasional showers
and thunderstorms are expected across the board tonight. With
strong convergence along the boundary, ample upper support from
the advancing short-wave, and precipitable water values
approaching 1.50, locally heavy rainfall will be likely. Despite
the threat for high rainfall rates within the storms, the risk for
severe weather will be minimal, as strongest instability/low-level
wind shear will remain focused further southwest from the Ozarks
into east Texas.
Cold front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, followed by
windy and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will occur
during the morning hours, with readings dropping into the upper
30s/lower 40s during the afternoon. Brisk northwesterly winds
gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will make it feel even colder,
with wind-chill values dipping into the upper 20s/lower 30s. In
addition, approaching northern-stream short-wave will keep precip
chances alive despite FROPA. Thermal profiles suggest light rain
showers may mix with snow along/west of I-55 during the afternoon
as 850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range. NAM continues to be
the most aggressive in developing snow across central Illinois
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, while all other models
are much lighter with the QPF within the cold airmass. Given
presence of upper support and adequate moisture profiles, will
carry a chance for snow-showers north of I-70 Monday evening. Any
accumulations will be minor and mainly confined to grassy surfaces
after dark. Once this wave passes, skies will gradually clear from
west to east overnight, allowing lows to drop below freezing.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday
After cold and dry conditions on Tuesday with highs only reaching
the 40s, rising upper heights will allow temperatures to warm back
into the 60s by Thursday. Next system of interest is beginning to
come into better focus, with the 00z Apr 13 ECMWF coming into
better agreement with prior runs of the GFS. Both models now bring
an upper wave and its associated frontal boundary into central
Illinois on Friday. Despite decent upper dynamics, instability
appears meager with this system, so will not mention thunder at
this time. Will bring chance POPs for showers into the western
half of the CWA Thursday night, then everywhere on Friday. After
that, a return to dry weather and near normal temperatures in the
60s can be expected for Saturday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
401 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.
REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATES WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY DURING THAT
TIME. BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
REGIONS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
AT KMCK...VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY BECAUSE OF ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY FROM SNOW. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SNOW INTENSITY LESSENS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW
AND IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN.
AT KGLD...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND MOST SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH A BAND OF SNOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINAL. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS WERE USED FOR TIMING THE IFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY NEAR
LIFR CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE
04-07Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR.
FOR BOTH TERMINALS...NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AND COULD GUST TO 35
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT 12-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR KSZ001>004-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
20Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave lifting across eastern
KS as another wave digs south towards the four corners region.
This initial wave has sparked a line of thunderstorms to form
along a cold front that is surging southeast through the forecast
area. Much of the short range guidance is pointing towards the
convection to be east of the forecast area by 7 pm, which fits in
with current radar trends. Therefore have lowered pops for this
evening and removed mention of thunder. There is a band of snow
across NEB. The HRRR and RAP suggest the tail end of this precip
may move east along the NEB state line through the evening as the
first shortwave lifts northeast. Precip accumulations with this
should be fairly light as the better mid level frontogenesis stays
mainly to the north. However as the second shortwave comes out of
the Rockies late tonight and through the morning Monday, this
frontogenetical band redevelops south and most guidance is
pointing at a band of snow moving over east central KS. The
frontogenesis looks strong enough for a decent band of snow and
possible accumulations around an inch through late morning Monday.
This will be highly dependent on the intensity of the snowfall
however since ground temps remain relatively warm. If the band
produces higher snowfall rates, some parts of east central KS
could see accumulations a little higher.
In between the convection this afternoon and the frontogenetical
precip overnight, think there will be a lull in the precip and
have tapered pops down this evening. Models show saturation in the
lower levels hinting at the possibility for some drizzle which
could be freezing depending on surface temps. However the
conditions for drizzle do not look to persist for long as some mid
level drying occurs before the next shortwave moves in and
saturates the column. Overall am not to excited about the
prospects for drizzle but can`t rule out the chance so will
include a mention in the forecast.
Lows tonight should fall into the lower 30s due to strong cold air
advection behind the front. Temps in central NEB have already
fallen into the upper 20s suggesting my lows may not be cool
enough. In any case, freezing temps look likely tonight and will
issue as freeze warning as we have entered the locally defined
growing season. Cold air advection persists through the morning
Monday so highs are not expected to warm much. However think
clouds will eventually clear out by the afternoon so some
insolation may help to warm highs into the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Monday night through Wednesday looks dry as the central plains see
dry northwest flow develop ahead of the next wave expected to dig
into the plains by Thursday. The medium range models seem to be in
some agreement with timing of the next wave therefore have trended
pops up for Thursday and Thursday night. There does not appear to
be much instability with this system as warm moist are is slow to
return. However there does appear to be another shot of cold air
moving in Thursday night which could cause a brief change over to
snow before the precip comes to an end. Therefore have maintained
a mention of rain and snow for Thursday night.
While less certain, there are indications of a southern stream
wave trying to phase with a northern stream wave over the area
Sunday. Confidence is low since the GFS struggles to advect
moisture this far north. However with the ECMWF breaking out some
QPF, will insert some low (20-30%) POPs Saturday night and Sunday.
A hard freeze looks likely Tuesday morning as skies clear out and
surface ridging moves over the region. Therefore have continued
with lows in the lower to middle 20s and will post a freeze
warning through Tuesday morning too. Southerly flow returns for
Wednesday helping to moderate the cool temps before the next cold
front moves in Thursday and knocks temps back down into the 40s
and 50s for Thursday and Friday. With a split flow for the weekend
and the northern stream remaining north, temps should moderate
into the 60s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Limiting conditions should dominate the forecast with cold front
passing MHK recently and then TOP and FOE around 20Z. TSRA ongoing
and should persist for a few hours with instability waning with
time. Higher confidence in IFR cigs versus precipitation in the
bulk of the forecast. Will go ahead with -SN inclusion given for a
few hours given model trends. VFR should return by the end of this
forecast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM Monday to 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-020-021-
034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
204 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.
REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS LIFT INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTHWEST AND RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING ANOTHER FEW INCHES
OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH GFS FORECAST OF UP TO A FOOT LOOKS
OVERDONE. DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS MUCH AS ISC
ALLOWED...BUT WITH CLOUDS/UPSLOPE/PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WARMING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REBUILDS ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME AND MAY
BE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014
AT KMCK...VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY BECAUSE OF ONE
QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY FROM SNOW. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS
SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SNOW INTENSITY LESSENS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW
AND IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN.
AT KGLD...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND MOST SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH A BAND OF SNOW
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINAL. RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS WERE USED FOR TIMING THE IFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY NEAR
LIFR CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE
04-07Z PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR.
FOR BOTH TERMINALS...NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AND COULD GUST TO 35
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...BUT 12-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR KSZ001>004-013.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
STILL LOOKING LIKE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AS EARLY AS 1-2PM...GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO WICHITA TO HILLSBORO...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...BUT
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME HEATING WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ROTATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (GOLFBALL-TENNIS BALL SIZE)...ALTHOUGH
LACK OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 700-500MB SHEAR
SHOULD PREVENT GIANT HAIL FROM OCCURRING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
GO LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...AND FLOW ALOFT
TENDING TO BACK WITH HEIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION GOES LINEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL TEND TO DECREASE...WITH QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
60-70 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. THINKING ALL ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 7-9 PM. FURTHERMORE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MERGE AND
GO LINEAR.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF I-135
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE ERRATIC WINDS. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS AROUND 00Z. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST...ALONG
WITH HIGH IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS. AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
OUT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD EVEN SEE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA.
ADK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 34 43 24 / 40 40 50 0
HUTCHINSON 71 31 44 24 / 40 60 30 0
NEWTON 77 31 42 24 / 40 40 40 0
ELDORADO 78 33 42 25 / 60 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 36 44 25 / 60 40 40 0
RUSSELL 55 29 46 23 / 60 60 10 0
GREAT BEND 56 28 46 22 / 60 60 20 0
SALINA 66 31 46 23 / 50 60 20 0
MCPHERSON 70 30 44 24 / 50 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 79 38 45 26 / 80 50 50 0
CHANUTE 78 36 44 24 / 80 40 50 0
IOLA 75 36 43 24 / 80 40 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 79 37 45 24 / 80 50 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
STILL LOOKING LIKE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AS EARLY AS 1-2PM...GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO WICHITA TO HILLSBORO...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...BUT
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME HEATING WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ROTATION IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL (GOLFBALL-TENNIS BALL SIZE)...ALTHOUGH
LACK OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 700-500MB SHEAR
SHOULD PREVENT GIANT HAIL FROM OCCURRING. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
GO LINEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...AND FLOW ALOFT
TENDING TO BACK WITH HEIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION GOES LINEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL TEND TO DECREASE...WITH QUARTER-GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
60-70 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. THINKING ALL ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 7-9 PM. FURTHERMORE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MERGE AND
GO LINEAR.
ADK
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS STILL SITTING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION WITH AN ARM OF THE PV ANOMALY EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS.
THIS ARM HELPED TO FIRE THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING IN AN ABUNDANTLY RICH
AIRMASS HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
OF GREAT BEND. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER TODAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO
BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE AREA. WILL BREAK THIS SECTION UP
BASED ON TYPE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER VS. A NARRATIVE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS BEEN WELL FORECASTED THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
5Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPING ALONG THE FRONT AROUND
18-20Z JUST EAST OF WICHITA...ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THINK
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF WICHITA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 60+ DEWPOINTS...CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG. THE CAPE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR WILL
FOSTER SEVERE STORM GROWTH WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND UP TO
BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WIND POTENTIAL:
STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP WINDS EXCEED 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS INHERITED AND WE
EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO COINCIDE WITH GREATEST
PERCEIVED THREAT. ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME TO 02Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT LET UP UNTIL CLOSE TO MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING PAST 02Z IS NOT HIGH...BUT
IF THEY DO COULD SEE ADVISORY EXTENDED IN TIME.
SNOW POTENTIAL:
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TREND COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FOLLOWING TODAY`S COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH SUCH
THAT SNOW IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THUS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF
2-3 INCHES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THOSE AMOUNTS OCCURRING IS LOW. DO
THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO ON THE ROADWAYS IF THE RATE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT LAST
VERY LONG...AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE IT TO MELT
QUICKLY.
FREEZE POTENTIAL:
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL DROP BELOW 30 DEGREES. DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS...COLD
TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MEDIUM AND WENT THE WATCH ROUTE TO ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ADJUST IF NEEDED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WIDESPREAD TEMPS BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIRMASS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S. IF THIS HAPPENS...RECORD COOL
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN FOR MONDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FOR THURSDAY DRAGGING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS. HAVE DROPPED MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO THINK THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON
FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
AN UNSETTLED AVIATION FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
TODAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST
OF SYSTEM ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF FOR THIS
CHANCE. COULD SEE A TEMPO GROUP ADDED LATER TODAY FOR MVFR VSBYS FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS
AREA AS WELL.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH KRSL AND KSLN AT THIS TIME...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 35
KTS DEVELOPING. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH INTO KHUT/KICT BY AROUND
16-19Z WITH A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME
POST FRONTAL SHRA/-RA AND MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
COULD SEE THE RAIN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR
KCNU BY AROUND 09Z/MON. AS THIS SNOW CHANCE DEVELOPS...COULD SEE
SOME CIGS FLIRT WITH IFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS THAT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE FIRE DANGER WILL DIMINISH. THE DRY AIR AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND CURED FUELS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY APRIL 14TH, 2014
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS
WICHITA....45 DEGREES IN 1928
CHANUTE....47 DEGREES IN 1983
RUSSELL....44 DEGREES IN 1993
SALINA.....44 DEGREES IN 1993
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 80 34 43 24 / 40 40 50 0
HUTCHINSON 71 31 44 24 / 40 60 30 0
NEWTON 77 31 42 24 / 40 40 40 0
ELDORADO 78 33 42 25 / 60 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 36 44 25 / 60 40 40 0
RUSSELL 55 29 46 23 / 60 60 10 0
GREAT BEND 56 28 46 22 / 60 60 20 0
SALINA 66 31 46 23 / 50 60 20 0
MCPHERSON 70 30 44 24 / 50 60 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 79 38 45 26 / 80 50 50 0
CHANUTE 78 36 44 24 / 80 40 50 0
IOLA 75 36 43 24 / 80 40 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 79 37 45 24 / 80 50 50 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
108 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.AVIATION...
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS TO
BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERIODS OF IFR FLIGHT
WEATHER EXPECT. TSTMS WILL BRING FLIGHT HAZARDS...INCLUDING
SEVERE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS. ALSO...
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER SHOULD END BY 06Z MOST AREAS...
HOWEVER CIGS MAY REMAIN IFR IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 10Z IN WESTERN AREAS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE STORMS SHOULD END AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN. SURFACE
WIND SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25 KTS PREFRONTAL AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 POST
FRONTAL MONDAY MORNING. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTN GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS. STORMS INCREASING ACROSS DALLAS METRO...AND THESE WILL
TRACK INTO NW CWA...SO RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THERE. EXPANDED
CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...LEAVING ONLY EXTREME EASTERN
CWA IN SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS STILL SHOWING STORMS BECOME MORE
INTENSE DURG AFTN...AND ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO EASILY ACHIEVE 80 DEGREE FCST...AND STG LOW LVL SHEAR ALREADY
IN PLACE. SO SVR ALREADY IN FCST REMAINS JUSTIFIED. LAKE WIND
AGAIN TODAY APPEARS MARGINAL...WILL DECIDE LATER THIS AFTN WHETHER
TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE THE AREAS TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR
35HDFT-4KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS INTO THE TX TERMINAL WHERE HRRR-3KM
REFLECTIVITY DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z. WOULD OBVIOUSLY EXPECT LOWER
CEILINGS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. KEPT THE
MENTION OF VCTS GOING FOR THESE TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR THE
MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LATER
TODAY...MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING/LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL
THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR TERMINALS UNTIL
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON.
UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE
13-16KT RANGE WITH GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING 22-25KTS ACROSS MOST
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 30KTS BY AFTERNOON
AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS GOING AS NEW CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS N TX/S OK IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT MERGER AND THAT CONVECTION WOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME
SE NE BACK ACROSS KS WITH A LOW JUST SOUTH OF DDC VERY NEAR THE
BORDER WITH OK WHERE THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WRN OK/TX.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER OUR REGION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE UNDER A THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE. THIS IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATER TODAY...MORE
SPECIFICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS EVENT WILL
LIKELY COME IN STAGES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND ELIMINATING THE RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. THE NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THE CAP HOLDING SOLID
THIS AFTERNOON...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SUGGESTING
AMPLE REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO...THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE DRY
LINE STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW WORKED
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE...INSTABILITY LATER IN THE EVENING MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS INDICATED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT WHICH NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COULD BE CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
THIS WILL INDEED BEAR WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST OVER SE OK/NE TX CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE EVENT SHOULD
TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS AN INTENSE
SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
WEAKER CONVECTION WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF NEAR FREEZING AND POSSIBLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN PARTS OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY WITH RAIN
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 64 66 36 62 37 / 60 40 20 10 10
MLU 66 70 36 60 36 / 60 50 40 10 10
DEQ 54 56 31 61 32 / 70 30 10 10 10
TXK 58 60 34 61 37 / 70 30 10 10 10
ELD 63 64 33 60 33 / 70 50 30 10 10
TYR 56 61 34 62 39 / 50 30 10 10 10
GGG 59 61 35 62 37 / 50 30 10 10 10
LFK 65 67 36 63 38 / 50 40 20 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
548 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE: CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE: 1) INCREASING POPS TO
100 PERCENT FOR TNGT FOR SPCLY THE N PTN OF THE FA XPCTD TO GET
A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP OF GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH LATER
TNGT...2) DELAY THE CHG OVR TO RN ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA A
COUPLE OF MORE HRS LATER INTO THE ERLY EVE BASED ON HRRR MODEL
FCST RADAR REF WHICH SHOWS BRIGHT BANDING CLRG THE ST JOHN VLY
DURING THE MID EVE HRS. THIS RESULTED IN REDUCING SNFL IN THE
CURRENT 18-24Z TM FRAME OVR PARTICULARLY NE PTNS OF THE FA...
BUT ADDING A LITTLE MORE IN THE 00-06Z TM FRAME OVR THE FAR
N TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE SLIGHT DELAY IN THE CHGOVR
TO ALL RN. MAX SN RATIOS IN EVEN THE ALL SN PRECIP TYPES WERE HELD
DOWN TO 8:1 GIVEN TEMPS SLOWLY RISING TO AND ABV FZG ACROSS THE
FAR N OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LASTLY...3) LATEST OBSVD HRLY TEMPS
WERE MERGED TO FCST MSLY MODEL TEMPS THRU THE NGT TO RE-CONSTRUCT
THE FCST HRLY TEMP TREND ACROSS THE REGION TO MON MORN...WHICH
MSLY FEATURED SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVRNGT.
ORGNL DISC: LOW PRES CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT LAKES W/ A
WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN ONT AND NRN NYS THEN SEWRD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ACROSS OUR REGION TO THE N OF THIS WARM
FRONT...VERY CHILLY AIR W/ OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW HAS
ACCUMULATED UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE NRN AREAS THIS AFTN
AND THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS BEFORE MILD AIR
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT UP ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE INITIAL
SURGE OF OVERRUNNING SNOW AND RAIN PASSES NXT FEW HRS...ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE ADVERTISES ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY NRN AREAS LATER THIS EVE BEFORE IT SLIDES E OF THE AREA
ERLY MON AM. THIS SECOND SLUG SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
BUT COULD STILL BE SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR N FOR A PD THIS
EVE...
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG WARM FRONT IS FCST TO LIFT NEWRD UP ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TNGT INTO MON AM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH
WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MON AFTN. TEMPS TNGT SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE W/ TEMPS ON MON TO BURST INTO THE 60S
MOST AREAS AND PSBLY EVEN TOUCH 70 IN A FEW AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE RAPID RATE OF SNOW MELT WHICH
WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FLOODING CONCERNS AND THESE ARE ADDRESSED
IN MORE DETAIL IN THE HYDRO SECTION BLO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AS SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
SNOW MELT AND CONTINUED ICE MOVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND ICE MELT/MOVEMENT ON AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION REGRADING HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN INCREASING
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MAINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THEN
MODELS BEGIN FALLING OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WE GET OUT TOWARD SATURDAY.
GFS IS INDICATING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT PROGRESSING EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STAYING SPLIT AND GENERALLY GIVING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. SINCE WE HAVE PLENTY TIME TO
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND APPROACH WITH LITTLE NEED FOR MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDS ACROSS THE FAR N W/ SOME SNOW W/ MVFR
CENTRAL/SRN AREAS ATTM... IFR SHOULD DVLP SRN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN/EVE W/ IFR CONDS DVLPG AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE LATE EVE
HRS. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR THE THRU TNGT INTO MON AS A VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW DVLPS ACROSS THE AREA...
SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN DEVELOPING RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A BRISK SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCA CONDS GOING
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TUE...
SHORT TERM: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS/SEAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY LATER SHIFTS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM AT TIMES IN
RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WILL CONT FLOOD WATCHES... MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
HAS SLOWED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF BUT AREA RIVERS/STREAM CONT TO SLOWLY
RISE. THIS TREND SHOULD ONLY INCREASE OVER THE NXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COLD TEMPS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VERY MILD CONDS ON MON AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY S OF THE AREA LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA AS
WARM FRONT ERLY MON. IN ADDITION...RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TNGT WILL ADD ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OF .25-.75 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION BY ERLY MON AM. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN THREAT
PD FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING REMAINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MILDER TEMPERATURES ON MON WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
MELT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISING RIVER
LEVELS WHICH COULD CAUSE ICE TO MOVE AND POSSIBLY JAM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STILL MILD TEMPERATURES
AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT CONTINUING. ALL THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS AND RISING RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/DUDA
MARINE...VJN/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAY ME
547 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LLVL CLOUDS AND SHRA CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD. EXPECT THAT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP FOR COASTAL
ME. MUCH OF NH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE NIGHT WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FOG. AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT LATE THIS
EVENING SOME SHRA OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE.
LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS...SO HAVE ADDED SOME
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST GOT A REPORT OF SOME GRAUPEL OUT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN WRN ME. THESE SHRA WILL CROSS THE CAPITAL
AREA AND MID COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANY PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN BY 5 OR 6 PM...AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY.
TOUGH PART OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS WHERE AND WHETHER THE
MARINE/COLD LYR MAXES OUT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING
IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S IN
SOME SPOTS. IN AREAS THAT DO BREAK OUT...MINS TONIGHT WILL DROP
OFF SOME. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST AND AND IN THE ERN INTERIOR
ZONES...WHERE THE MARINE LYR IN ENTRENCHED...IT SEEMS LESS LKLY
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...AND LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT. HERE..MINS ARE LKLY TO OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET...AS TEMPS WILL LKLY RISE VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE LINGERING STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SSW FLOW TO BREAK OUT MOST EVERYWHERE BY MID-LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SKIES TO BE SUNNY7 TO P/SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH STRONG SW FLOW MIXING DOWN VERY WARM AIR IN THE 925-850MB...WHICH
IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALONG
THE COAST S OF CASCO BAY...WILL LKLY SEE SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS
TO THE S...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALONG THE MID
COAST..HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES INTO WRN
NY MON NIGHT. AND THE SSW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS ON THE MILDER SIDE...50S S...AND GENERALLY 40S
ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS LKLY TO ROLL
IN MON EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL LKLY MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE TUESDAY
MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PROBLEMS OF AREA RIVERS AS ONE TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL COMBINES WITH RAPID SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS
ON AREA RIVES. TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY START TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHTER GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS NORTH
AND 20S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RESULTING IN TWO FAIRLY NICE DAYS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WILL
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS SHOULD ALSO FEATURE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING AND WILL LIKELY BRING ALONG ENOUGH COLDER AIR TO
PRODUCE SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COASTAL TERMINAL AND KAUG WILL DROP TO IFR OR LOWER
IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY. AT KCON/KLEB/KHIE...WILL SEE SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...PROBABLY REACHING IFR...BUT PROB NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER VFR MON AFTERNOON...THE
COASTAL TERMINALS LOOK TO FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AGAIN IN
STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNSET...AND THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MON NIGHT. PERSISTENT SW FLOW
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TUE...AND WILL FRESHEN LATE MONDAY AND
MON NIGHT...APPROACHING GALES.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION RAPID SNOW MELT AND SOME PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP
MOST RIVERS RUNNING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. ICE MOVEMENT WILL ADD
TO THE UNPRECICTABILITY OF WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND
MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WENESDAY AS POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITHA COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
545 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LLVL CLOUDS AND SHRA CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE NEWD. EXPECT THAT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP FOR COASTAL
ME. MUCH OF NH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE NIGHT WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY FOG. AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT LATE THIS
EVENING SOME SHRA OR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE.
LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS...SO HAVE ADDED SOME
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST GOT A REPORT OF SOME GRAUPEL OUT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN WRN ME. THESE SHRA WILL CROSS THE CAPITAL
AREA AND MID COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANY PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN BY 5 OR 6 PM...AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY.
TOUGH PART OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS WHERE AND WHETHER THE
MARINE/COLD LYR MAXES OUT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING
IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S IN
SOME SPOTS. IN AREAS THAT DO BREAK OUT...MINS TONIGHT WILL DROP
OFF SOME. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST AND AND IN THE ERN INTERIOR
ZONES...WHERE THE MARINE LYR IN ENTRENCHED...IT SEEMS LESS LKLY
THAT THE SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...AND LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS
WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT. HERE..MINS ARE LKLY TO OCCUR AROUND
SUNSET...AS TEMPS WILL LKLY RISE VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL SEE LINGERING STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SSW FLOW TO BREAK OUT MOST EVERYWHERE BY MID-LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SKIES TO BE SUNNY7 TO P/SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH STRONG SW FLOW MIXING DOWN VERY WARM AIR IN THE 925-850MB...WHICH
IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALONG
THE COAST S OF CASCO BAY...WILL LKLY SEE SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS
TO THE S...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALONG THE MID
COAST..HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES INTO WRN
NY MON NIGHT. AND THE SSW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS ON THE MILDER SIDE...50S S...AND GENERALLY 40S
ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS LKLY TO ROLL
IN MON EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL LKLY MAKE IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE TUESDAY
MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PROBLEMS OF AREA RIVERS AS ONE TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL COMBINES WITH RAPID SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS
ON AREA RIVES. TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SKIES WILL CLEAR
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY START TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHTER GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS NORTH
AND 20S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RESULTING IN TWO FAIRLY NICE DAYS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WILL
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS SHOULD ALSO FEATURE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING AND WILL LIKELY BRING ALONG ENOUGH COLDER AIR TO
PRODUCE SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COASTAL TERMINAL AND KAUG WILL DROP TO IFR OR LOWER
IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY. AT KCON/KLEB/KHIE...WILL SEE SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...PROBABLY REACHING IFR...BUT PROB NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER VFR MON AFTERNOON...THE
COASTAL TERMINALS LOOK TO FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AGAIN IN
STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNSET...AND THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MON NIGHT. PERSISTENT SW FLOW
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TUE...AND WILL FRESHEN LATE MONDAY AND
MON NIGHT...APPROACHING GALES.
LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
FOCUSED MAINLY ON MID WEEK AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED
SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST USED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED LES IS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT/TUE AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE -18C TO -20C WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS. INCOMING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LIMITED...THE MAIN ATTENTION IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
TUE NIGHT. BASICALLY...THERE ARE TWO CAMPS THE MODELS ARE IN. THE
12Z/13 GFS 12Z/13 AND GLOBAL GEM PHASE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
SHORTWAVE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH DEEPENS
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DIRECTS A
SECOND SHORTWAVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA THAT
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CWA WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. THIS IDEA RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU GENERALLY OF 1-2 INCHES /EVEN BLEND OF THE GEM AND GFS/.
THE 00Z/13 ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE TROUGH AND FIRST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH BRINGS THAT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW S OF THE
CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH MUCH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ON THE N SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW OF UP TO 0.6 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. MODELS DO SHOW
SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW S AND MOSTLY SNOW N. AS FOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE ECMWF DID SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY UNTIL THE LAST
RUN...WHICH TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER THE GFS. THE GLOBAL GEM HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS. THIS BEING SAID...STILL HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AS THE HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS/GEM WILL BE
VERY DEPENDENT ON MANY OTHER FEATURES...AND FORECASTING MORE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS IS HARD TO JUSTIFY WITHOUT BETTER
CONFIDENCE. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO/EHWO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. ON THE HIGH EXTREME FOR
QPF...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT /AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY/ WILL JUST MENTION MODERATE AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT IWD WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA. A SFC
LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SAW WILL BE IN THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN
AREA AND EXPECT A RETURN OF SOME SN/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...SNOWMELT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
MAY STOP ALTOGETHER OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS. GIVEN ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH 4-9 INCHES OF
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS THE
WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OCCUR JUST PRECEEDING THE LONG TERM. KEPT HIGHER LIKELY POPS
OVER EAST THROUGH 18Z ON MONDAY AS LAST PUSH OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE MAY GENERATE UP TO 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1 INCH OF WET SNOW. AWAY FM THIS AREA OF
SNOW...HAVE JUST SOME SMALL CHANCES DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GAPS IN WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST AND OVERALL WILL BE SEEING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH
OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...SO PROBABLY LOOKING AT FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. QUITE COOL...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C
ON TUESDAY IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGHING. EVEN WITH GAPS OF OPEN
WATER OVER ESPECIALLY WEST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIR IS DRY IN
THE LARGER SCALE. SOUNDINGS FM GFS INDICATE AN INVERTED-V
LOOK...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER UP TO THE THIN MOIST LAYER AROUND
H85. BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME
COOLING...BUT EVEN THIS AFFECT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS LARGER SCALE
LOW-LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MOST NOTEABLE WILL BE
THE COLD...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING TO THE UPR TEENS OR
LOWER 20S BY LATE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32 DEGREES...EVEN OVER SCNTRL. NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON...READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL END UP 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. COOL TEMPS FOR THE NIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY TEENS EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT
ANY INTERIOR LOCATION ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT CLEARS OUT BRIEFLY AND
ALSO OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS STILL SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS HAS SHOWN THIS OVER ITS LAST 5 RUNS BACK TO
00Z ON 12 APRIL. ECMWF RATHER INSISTENT INDICATING WIDESPREAD QPF
WILL BE MORE FROM DAKOTAS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
CWA TO LK SUPERIOR. GFS IDEA IS MORE OR LESS SUPPORTED BY LAST
COUPLE GEM-NH RUNS AND 12Z/12 APRIL RUN OF UKMET. DIVING IN MORE IT
APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF IDEAS LOOK SIMILAR IN THE
LARGER SCALE /LEAD SHORTWAVE INITIALIZING SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE STRONGER/LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA/ THEY DIFFER IN HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS BTWN THE TWO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. GFS IS SLOWER TO PHASE THUS BRINGS SFC LOW
FARTHER EAST INITIALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PHASES QUICKER AND LIFTS THE
LOW MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EMERGE OUT OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CONSENSUS OF PRIMARY MODELS
INDICATES HIGH CHANCES OVER CWA...BEGINNING VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS ALL CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY EASTERN CWA. PTYPE MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING OCCURS OVER SCNTRL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. MODERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST CWA PER BLEND OF
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH. MIXING RATIOS 2.5-3 G/KG INDICATE
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUN
OF ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO GFS/GEM-NH IDEAS. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF HWOMQT NOW THOUGH SINCE AS THIS IS THE FIRST
ECMWF RUN TO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION TO GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES BY FRIDAY AS RECENT RUNS OF GFS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TOWARD 1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS UPPER LAKES. ECMWF NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
ALL WHILE THE GEM-NH SHOWS SOME IDEA THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP...
JUST NOT AS STRONG AS GFS. CONSENSUS...WHICH IS WEIGHTED TOWARD GFS
INPUT... GIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MANUALLY
TWEAKED THOSE DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT LEFT ALONE OTHERWISE. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED TEMPS INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHETHER
ANY SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY. IF SO...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF NOT...INLAND AREAS AWAY FM
THE LAKES COULD REACH LOWER 50S ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS H85
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT IWD WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA. A SFC
LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SAW WILL BE IN THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN
AREA AND EXPECT A RETURN OF SOME SN/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
RIVER HYDROGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS AT RKLM4/FRDM4 AND EVEN AT
MSQM4 OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BROKEN AND RIVERS HAVE LEVELED
OFF. AS OF THIS MORNING...NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM THE ICE
JAMS. SEEMS THAT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS SEEN ON SATURDAY AND THE
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK /HIGHS 20S TO
30S WITH LOWS WELL BLO FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/...WE
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE END OF THIS INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF.
GIVEN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH
4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS
THAT WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tonight-Monday Night)
Main question tonight will be severe weather chances. Large area of
stratiform rain currently over the CWA may suppress these chances as
latest SPC objective MUCAPE analysis is mostly below 500 j/kg except
across northern Missouri and west central Illinois. The latest runs
of the HRRR has been trending toward weaker storms these evening
because weaker instability. However, if the rain can mover out of
the area, there are very steep lapse rates over the Central Plains
that could help quickly destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the line
of the storms currently over eastern Kansas. Deep layer shear
between 00-03Z will be between 35-50kts which will be sufficient for
organized severe storms.
Otherwise, forecast did not require too much changes as I still
expect front to march southeast across the CWA tonight.
Thunderstorm threat will end with the front and change to a plain
cold rain. Have kept likely chances to for rain on Monday as the
ECMWF/GFS/NAM all mid-level frontogenesis moving across the region
during the day. Also added likely chances over the eastern counties
on Monday evening as ascent from the mid level trough will not clear
the CWA until overnight Monday night. Forecast soundings and
critical thicknesses still point to snow mixing with the rain from
northwest to southeast during the day on Monday. Do not have any
accumulating snow at the moment as the low atmosphere will be rather
warm during the day, as will the surface temperatures after this
unseasonably warm weekend.
With the much colder air moving into the area, temperatures will
fall below freezing over the entire CWA on Monday night. Many areas
will see temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tuesday-Sunday)
Upper trough will move east of the area by Tuesday bringing dry
weather for mid week. While Monday night looks like the coldest,
Tuesday night will likely still have temperatures around freezing
before lows become more seasonable later in the week.
While the ECMWF has trended deeper and consequently slower with the
trough that will move through the central CONUS late this week, it
is still not as deep as the GFS or the Canadian GEM. Will stick
with the more consistent ECMWF as the GFS is quicker to move the
front through the area on Thursday night than it was before. Will
keep Thursday dry with the front staying to the northwest most of
the day with a chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the
front moves across the area. By next weekend, winds turn out of the
southwest quickly behind a retreating high allowing gulf moisture to
move north from the Gulf quickly into the area.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Cold front extending from a weak surface low over southeast IA
southwest through northwest MO and southeast KS will move sewd
through UIN and COU this evening, and through the St Louis metro
area just after 06z Monday. Scattered showers will continue ahead
of the front early this evening with a line of thunderstorms
along the cold front moving through the taf sites later this evening.
Relatively strong and gusty sly surface winds will veer around to
a nwly direction after fropa and remain strong and gusty late
tonight and Monday due to a tight surface pressure gradient.
Ceilings will likely fall into the IFR catagory behind this front.
There will be some post frontal light rain on Monday, possibly
mixing with or changing to light snow in UIN and COU as colder air
continues to filter sewd into the area.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and thunderstorms over south central
MO will move northeastward into STL later this evening, while a
line of thunderstorms along the cold front over northwest and west
central MO moves into the STL area by late evening. Strong and
gusty sly winds will veer around to a wly direction late tonight
after fropa and a nwly direction Monday morning. The wind will
remain strong and gusty through Monday, then diminish Monday night
as a surface ridge approaches and the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. The cloud ceiling will lower into the IFR catagory late
tonight after fropa, then rise into the MVFR catagory Monday
afternoon or evening. Periods of light rain can be expected on
Monday, possibly changing to a little light rain/snow mix before
ending Monday evening.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
404 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tonight-Monday Night)
Main question tonight will be severe weather chances. Large area of
stratiform rain currently over the CWA may suppress these chances as
latest SPC objective MUCAPE analysis is mostly below 500 j/kg except
across northern Missouri and west central Illinois. The latest runs
of the HRRR has been trending toward weaker storms these evening
because weaker instability. However, if the rain can mover out of
the area, there are very steep lapse rates over the Central Plains
that could help quickly destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the line
of the storms currently over eastern Kansas. Deep layer shear
between 00-03Z will be between 35-50kts which will be sufficient for
organized severe storms.
Otherwise, forecast did not require too much changes as I still
expect front to march southeast across the CWA tonight.
Thunderstorm threat will end with the front and change to a plain
cold rain. Have kept likely chances to for rain on Monday as the
ECMWF/GFS/NAM all mid-level frontogenesis moving across the region
during the day. Also added likely chances over the eastern counties
on Monday evening as ascent from the mid level trough will not clear
the CWA until overnight Monday night. Forecast soundings and
critical thicknesses still point to snow mixing with the rain from
northwest to southeast during the day on Monday. Do not have any
accumulating snow at the moment as the low atmosphere will be rather
warm during the day, as will the surface temperatures after this
unseasonably warm weekend.
With the much colder air moving into the area, temperatures will
fall below freezing over the entire CWA on Monday night. Many areas
will see temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
(Tuesday-Sunday)
Upper trough will move east of the area by Tuesday bringing dry
weather for mid week. While Monday night looks like the coldest,
Tuesday night will likely still have temperatures around freezing
before lows become more seasonable later in the week.
While the ECMWF has trended deeper and consequently slower with the
trough that will move through the central CONUS late this week, it
is still not as deep as the GFS or the Canadian GEM. Will stick
with the more consistent ECMWF as the GFS is quicker to move the
front through the area on Thursday night than it was before. Will
keep Thursday dry with the front staying to the northwest most of
the day with a chance of showers Thursday night and Friday as the
front moves across the area. By next weekend, winds turn out of the
southwest quickly behind a retreating high allowing gulf moisture to
move north from the Gulf quickly into the area.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
Latest weather trends shows band of rainshowers from IRK through
central Missouri and southwest into south central Missouri moving
northeast into eastern sections of the state. Narrow band of
thunderstorms entering west-central Missouri at this time shows
recent signs of slight weakening. More organized storms continue
to develop from TOP to ICT. Eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois will continue to receive light rainshowers this afternoon
ending by 2100 - 2200 UTC. The stronger storms along far western
Missouri shows trend of continued weakening as it hit more stable
air over central Missouri. Will bring in rainshowers over
COU...UIN...and STL terminal from 1800 UTC and ending
precipitation between 2100 to 2200 UTC. The band of storms
entering far western Missouri may reach COU area around 2300 -
0000 UTC if it holds together.
Specifics for KSTL:
Band of rainshowers from north central Missouri through south
central Missouri will enter STL area after 1800 and should
end around 2100 UTC. Expect visibility restrictions of about 5
miles in light rain. The stronger convection over far western
Missouri may not reach STL since this system will be entering in
more stable atmosphere. Stronger storms over east central through
south-central Kansas is associated with the cold front. This band
of storms will be entering the STL area after 0400 UTC. Gusty
winds are likely with these storms. Surface winds will likely be
southwest at 15 kts with gusts to as high as 25 kts.
Przybylinski
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR 4/15:
STL - 27 IN 1928
COU - 25 IN 1928
UIN - 24 IN 1928
FAM - 24 IN 1928
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight with
unseasonable cold Mon/Mon night. Guidance is continuing to
indicate light precip ahead of the main long wave trough axis over
the Plains Monday. Progged vertical thermal profiles support some wet
snow at many locations from mid morning into the afternoon,
particularly over western and and northern halves of cwfa.
Blustery, cold, and damp sums it up for the day on Monday.
A widespread frost/hard freeze looks likely Mon night with most
guidance dropping temperatures well down into the 20s. A sfc ridge
axis will be over the region by 12z Tue with light winds aiding in
radiational cooling. Freeze watch is out now for Mon night, and the
warning will follow either later today or tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Cold temperatures and a dry air mass will continue into Tuesday.
The sfc ridge axis will shift east of the area late Tue/Tue night.
While a light south to southeast wind will become established over
the area Tue night, the dry air mass will still likely allow
temperatures to drop quickly in the evening and reach down to near
freezing in many areas. Will look at at the possibility of a frost
advisory as that time period draws closer.
Temperatures will moderate somewhat for Wed-Thu. Another shortwave
and sfc low/trough will pass through the region Thu night/early
Fri. Gulf moisture will be greatly limited/modified ahead of this
system with showers/isolate tstms expected.
Looks like a more amplified upper level pattern may become
established over the CONUS by late in the week with a sharp upper
level ridge axis setting up over the eastern Rockies or Plains by
late in the week. The 00z ECMWF is more progressive with the
ridge (versus the 12z GFS), shifting it east of the area by Sunday and
spitting out some light precip late in the weekend. Will probably
hold off on any significant mention of precip for now with dry low
levels expected to be in place with sfc high pressure just off to
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
We will continue to see scattered showers and storms over the
southwest Missouri airports through the afternoon...however we
expect ceilings to remain VFR ahead of the dry line and cold front
which extended across south central Kansas through central
Oklahoma at 17Z. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the front
should keep winds gusting above 20 mph through the afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the airports roughly
from 23Z to 3Z...as the cold front moves across the area. These storms
could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and hail to 1.75
inches in diameter.
Winds will shift to the west and southwest around midnight with
ceilings expected to drop to IFR through the night and into
tomorrow. We could see the ceilings break before 18Z Monday with
the passage of the 700 mb trough. Expect Springfield and Branson
to remain IFR with periods of light rain through 18Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Record lows for April 15th:
Springfield: 25 deg F...1928
Joplin : 26 deg F...1983
West Plains: 25 deg F...1950
Rolla-Vichy: 27 deg F...1962
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster
CLIMATE...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
149 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Surface analysis at 18z indicated that a sharp and swiftly moving
cold front is currently situated from Lamoni, IA to Manhattan, KS.
Regional mosaic radar confirms this by indicating the fine line
associated with the cold front. By 19z it appears FROPA will occur in
the northern KC Metro, with FROPA for the entire metro area by 20z.
Areas north of the cold front will no longer have any threat for
tornadic activity. Areas along and south of the cold front will
continue to have a threat for strong surface based storms, with a
very low-end tornado threat for the rest of the afternoon. Cloud cover over
the area has generally abated the instability, however visible
imagery indicates plenty of clearing across SE Kansas, resulting in
building instability along the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg of SB Cape.
Thunderstorm activity is ongoing deep within the warm sector, and
likely will tap into the 2000+ J/kg of surface based instability and
20 to 40 kts of effective shear. It appears that these storms,
numerous in nature, could potentially be tied to a potent shortwave
trough which is currently centered over western Kansas with the
leading edge moving over the warm sector in C/E Kansas. While the
atmosphere certainly contains the ingredients for high-impact severe
weather, it appears that the chances for widespread high-impact
severe weather is minimal at this point, considering how storms
appear to be evolving across C/E Kansas. HRRR trends over the past
few runs confirm the idea that by 20z the storm activity will likely
be widespread in coverage, which would likely hamper the ability for
any single thunderstorm to become organized. Generally expect
widespread strong thunderstorms to skirt through the northern KC
Metro within the next couple of hours, with perhaps another round of
storms moving into the KC Metro area closer to 21z to 23z.
With that said, even with a linear or disorganized complex of
storms, the aforementioned area of high instability will migrate
eastward into the area, and wind profiles will be favorable for
rotating storms, so it will be necessary to keep a close eye on any
strong updraft within the complex for rotation.
Behind the cold front some lingering instability will support post
frontal thunderstorm activity, and with shear increasing behind the
line it will be possible to see some quasi organized activity in the
cold air behind the front, however it would almost surely be elevated
in nature, making the only threat marginal to low-end severe hail.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Today:
---------------------
Scattered, elevated thunderstorms may continue through the next
several hours on the nose of the LLJ, and could continue to produce
isolated severe hail in an environment with around 800-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 30-40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear. A brief lull in thunderstorm
activity is possible around sunrise as ongoing storms push east;
however, additional storm development is expected to begin along the
nearly stationary surface front/inverted trough axis by mid morning
across far NE Kansas and NW Missouri. Storms will gradually spread
along the boundary this morning, then will push southeastward during
the afternoon as the associated surface low kicks eastward into
central MO and drags the front across the forecast area. Additional
storm development is also possible early this afternoon just ahead
of the surface low across east central KS and west central MO, but
will gradually conglomerate with frontal precipitation during the
mid-afternoon.
MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are possible along and ahead of the
boundary this afternoon despite generally weak surface heating, and
will be accompanied by deep-layer shear values of 30-40 kts. Low-
level shear profiles are unidirectional and fairly unimpressive near
the surface, keeping the tornado potential very low. If storms can
become a bit more isolated just ahead of the surface boundary, large
hail will be possible; but with fairly widespread convection and
competing updrafts, shear vectors oriented nearly perpendicular to
the boundary and overall uni-directional shear, briefly damaging
winds and marginally severe (~1") hail seem the most likely
candidate for a severe threat this afternoon-evening.
Tonight and Monday:
---------------------
Behind the surface front, much cooler temperatures will filter into
the region. Profiles will quickly become supportive of a rain/snow
mix or brief periods of all snow late tonight into early Monday
morning, and fairly widespread (light) precipitation looks probable
along the northwest side of the surface low. Accumulating snow will
be very difficult to come by due to low snow rates and and very warm
and wet surfaces, but can`t rule out a brief tenth of an inch or so
on grassy surface across far northwest Missouri. Precipitation
should taper off from northwest to southeast on Monday afternoon,
exiting the region completely by sunset.
Tuesday Morning:
---------------------
A surface ridge will drift eastward across the forecast area late
Monday night into Tuesday morning while chilly northwest flow aloft
continues to usher in unseasonably cold temperatures. A damaging
freeze is likely Tuesday morning for any vegetation that has bloomed
out across the region, and a freeze headline will likely be needed
as Tuesday AM draws closer.
Wednesday - Saturday:
---------------------
Gradually warming temperatures are expected through Thursday, then a
clipper system may shove a cold front through the area again on
Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is the most aggressive in
bringing cold temperatures (and measurable snow) back into the CWA
for Thursday night into Friday morning, but have kept a warmer blend
in the forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Very messy afternoon with scattered convection early this afternoon
from extreme eastern KS across northern and central MO before a line
of strong/isolated severe storms moves from west to east this
afternoon. This line should affect the terminals before 22z with MVFR
cigs. Winds will switch abruptly to the north and remain strong and
gusty with the passage of the front. Post-frontal rain and embedded
thunderstorms will linger for a couple of hours after frontal
passage.
An area of wrap around rain and drizzle likely to move in later this
evening. Temperatures should be cold enough for a rain/snow mix after
midnight over far northwest MO. Another system moves in from the west
on Monday with the entire column cooling well below zero such that
snow is expected over east central KS/west central MO. Could see
minor accumulations on grassy surfaces.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Leighton
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
A strong cold front will sweep through the region tonight with
unseasonable cold Mon/Mon night. Guidance is continuing to
indicate light precip ahead of the main long wave trough axis over
the Plains Monday. Progged vertical thermal profiles support some wet
snow at many locations from mid morning into the afternoon,
particularly over western and and northern halves of cwfa.
Blustery, cold, and damp sums it up for the day on Monday.
A widespread frost/hard freeze looks likely Mon night with most
guidance dropping temperatures well down into the 20s. A sfc ridge
axis will be over the region by 12z Tue with light winds aiding in
radiational cooling. Freeze watch is out now for Mon night, and the
warning will follow either later today or tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Cold temperatures and a dry air mass will continue into Tuesday.
The sfc ridge axis will shift east of the area late Tue/Tue night.
While a light south to southeast wind will become established over
the area Tue night, the dry air mass will still likely allow
temperatures to drop quickly in the evening and reach down to near
freezing in many areas. Will look at at the possibility of a frost
advisory as that time period draws closer.
Temperatures will moderate somewhat for Wed-Thu. Another shortwave
and sfc low/trough will pass through the region Thu night/early
Fri. Gulf moisture will be greatly limited/modified ahead of this
system with showers/isolate tstms expected.
Looks like a more amplified upper level pattern may become
established over the CONUS by late in the week with a sharp upper
level ridge axis setting up over the eastern Rockies or Plains by
late in the week. The 00z ECMWF is more progressive with the
ridge (versus the 12z GFS), shifting it east of the area by Sunday and
spitting out some light precip late in the weekend. Will probably
hold off on any significant mention of precip for now with dry low
levels expected to be in place with sfc high pressure just off to
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
We will continue to see scattered showers and storms over the
southwest Missouri airports through the afternoon...however we
expect ceilings to remain VFR ahead of the dry line and cold front
which extended across south central Kansas through central
Oklahoma at 17Z. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the front
should keep winds gusting above 20 mph through the afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the airports roughly
from 23Z to 3Z...as the cold front moves across the area. These storms
could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and hail to 1.75
inches in diameter.
Winds will shift to the west and southwest around midnight with
ceilings expected to drop to IFR through the night and into
tomorrow. We could see the ceilings break before 18Z Monday with
the passage of the 700 mb trough. Expect Springfield and Branson
to remain IFR with periods of light rain through 18Z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Forecast evolving much as expected this morning. 12z NAM is
suggesting arrival into the SGF CWA to be 1-3 hours
slower...with development of strong to severe storms east of I35 over
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma toward 21z...reaching southeast Kansas
and western Missouri in the 23-01z time frame.
Convection currently most prevalent over northeast Oklahoma into
western Missouri ahead of approaching lead 700 MB shortwave
depicted over central Oklahoma at 12z but weakening as it moves
into eastern Oklahoma per water vapor at 14z. Obviously enough
jet support to lead to elevated convection though suspect this
activity to further weaken by late morning as low level jet
diminishes.
AC deck in behind 700 MB shortwave westward into western OK has
filled in a bit which may have a bearing on afternoon
instability...though RUC and 12z NAM lower RH satisfactory to lead
to 2000+ MLCAPE ahead of main 500 MB wave.
Lastly...wavy surface front extending from near STJ to SLN to TX
Panhandle with slug of low to mid 60 dew points surging northward
through central OK. Dew points though east of I-35 drop
considerable into the lower 50s over eastern OK. Lower dew points
wont help CAP evident ab 12z SGF RAOB...though MDCRS aircraft soundings
showing CAP weakening ahead of main shortwave.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
It is a very mild and breezy morning across southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures this morning are where our
normal highs would be for this time of year. Some convection is
already developing across portions of southeast Kansas this
morning. This will continue to further develop and move northward.
The 00z 4KM WFR model shows this development well and think that
the model has a good handle of the evolution of storms today and
this evening for the area.
All the 00z suite of models show convection developing by 18z
across southwestern Missouri into central Missouri in the warm
sector. Bulk shear will be up to 50 knots. Instability will
between 1000-1200 J/KG. 0-3KM Storm Relative Helicities will be
up to 500 M2/S2. This convection may be strong to severe with the
primary threats large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be
a low potential for an isolated tornado or two mainly late this
afternoon into the early evening hours with the better potential
over southeast Kansas into extreme southwestern Missouri.
A strong to severe line of storms will be developing along the
advancing cold front by 00z across southeast Kansas into western
Missouri. The main threat again will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The front will slowly undercut the line of storms
through the evening hours as it advances southeastward. The front
will be through Springfield before Midnight and through the
eastern Ozarks before 6 am. Storm total rainfall will be around 1
inch with isolated amounts up to 2 inches.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
Much colder air will be moving in on gusty northerly winds by
Monday morning. The main trough will be moving through the area by
the midday and early afternoon hours. Monday will be a shock
compared to the nice warm weather this weekend. Cloudy and dreary
conditions with north winds gusting up to 35 mph...off and on rain
showers with temperatures falling most of the day into the middle
and upper 30s...Wind chills will be in the 20s.
There is still indications from the models and forecast soundings
that enough cold air aloft will be available for either some wet
snow mixing in or changing over by late morning to midday on
Monday. The better potential for seeing wet snow falling will be
along and north of the I-44 corridor and the higher elevations of
the Ozark Plateau. No accumulations are expected with the warm
ground temperatures and the air temperatures will be in the middle
to upper 30s.
Skies will clear from west to east Monday evening and temperatures
will continue to drop as the Canadian high pressure moves in.
There is high confidence that most of the area will see
temperatures in the middle to upper 20s Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Some patchy to areas of frost may occur if the wind relax
enough and in sheltered areas. Will go ahead and issue a Freeze
Watch area wide for Monday night.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through the middle of the week.
May see another round of frost and near freezing temperatures
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near
seasonable averages by Thursday before another trough and cold
front moves through and briefly cools temperatures back down for
the end of the week. A good chance of showers will accompanying
the cold front late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
We will continue to see scattered showers and storms over the
southwest Missouri airports through the afternoon...however we
expect ceilings to remain VFR ahead of the dry line and cold front
which extended across south central Kansas through central
Oklahoma at 17Z. A tight pressure gradient ahead of the front
should keep winds gusting above 20 mph through the afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the airports roughly
from 23Z to 3Z...as the cold front moves across the area. These storms
could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 knots and hail to 1.75
inches in diameter.
Winds will shift to the west and southwest around midnight with
ceilings expected to drop to IFR through the night and into
tomorrow. We could see the ceilings break before 18Z Monday with
the passage of the 700 mb trough. Expect Springfield and Branson
to remain IFR with periods of light rain through 18Z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...FREEZE WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Terry
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AND ITS VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR CONTINUES ITS SLOW ADVANCE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 19Z
WITH SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEST OF A COLUMBUS
TO SIOUX CITY LINE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST
MAIN ORIENTATION OF THE SNOW BAND WILL GENERALLY SETUP IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH ON THE SOUTH AND YANKTON TO NELIGH
ON THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA. SNOW THEN SPREADS EAST
AND ENDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. EXPECT SNOW TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY
EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE 00Z
TIME FRAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTED SNOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WILL ALSO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTEND THROUGH 03Z.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING
TO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COOL AND WET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. DAY TO DAY
WARMING FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER SERN NEBR AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED SE OF
KLNK/KOMA BY 2 OR 3 PM CDT. OTHERWISE STRONG NNE SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. COLDER AIR
SPREADING SE INTO ERN NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY TURN RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO NERN NEBR...INCLUDING KOFK...WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.
DUE TO ONGOING INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THERE
COULD ALSO BE SLEET MIXED IN WITH SOME OF THE PRECIP THROUGH MID
AFTN AS WELL. COLDER AIR SHOULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT KOMA AND KLNK THIS EVENING...IF NOT A PERIOD OF JUST
SNOW...BEFORE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE 2 SITES LATE THIS EVENING OR
EARLY TONIGHT. IN GENERAL IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
PRECIP BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ015>018-030>034-042>045.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
123 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR SHERIDAN AND
WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES AS ONLY LIGHT SNOW REMAINS IN THOSE AREAS.
REPORTS FROM THAT AREA INDICATE AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN
AND WINDS ARE CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW. THIS SHOULD
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY BAND OF SNOW HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO THEDFORD. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS HAD LATCHED ON
TO THAT AND THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR THE SNOW TO CONTINUE
SINKING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS CONDITIONS ARE CONFIRMED TO HAVE IMPROVED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO COOL HOURLY TEMPERATURES A BIT QUICKER
THAN WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AS WELL AS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SNOW AND RAIN IS ONGOING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FREEZING LINE WAS ROUGHLY FROM KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW...HOWEVER LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR ALOFT HAS COOLED
SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE SNOW FALLING ALTHOUGH WHERE IT
IS WARMER IT MAY MELT ON CONTACT. THIS IS ALSO BEING CONFIRMED BY
DUAL-POL RADAR AS THERE IS A CC DISCONTINUITY FROM AROUND KIML TO
KLBF TO KONL...SO EITHER A MIX OR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS LINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WFO GID FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND NOW ARE DEVELOPING WEST THROUGH THE WFO GLD
FCST AREA...AIMED AT SWRN NEB. SO THIS UPDATE IS FOR THE ISOLATED
STORMS. NOTE THE RAP MAINTAINS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES WELL EAST
OF THIS AREA OF DEVELOPMENT SO THIS IS AN UNEXPECTED BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING
BEFORE OUR SECOND HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS SCNTL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
NEDOR CAMS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY INDICATE HEAVY BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SNOW THROUGH 15Z SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THERE
AND IN WRN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 18Z...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN CHERRY COUNTY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AT KIEN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
SFC WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 MPH OR STRONGER THIS HOUR AND SNOW
IS UNDERWAY AT THEDFORD AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 7 PM CDT. THE 09Z
RAP MODEL WHICH SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE SNOW BAND DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS SWINGS THIS BAND SOUTH THROUGH LINCOLN
COUNTY AND MERGES IT THIS AFTN WITH A NEW BAND DEVELOPING FROM
KLXN TO KODX...A BIT EAST OF THE 07Z-08Z RUNS. THE SNOW FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND THE QPF RATES IN THE 09Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 08Z RAP AND 05Z HRRR ARE CONSISTENT WITH A HEAVY SNOW BAND
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH FRONTIER...CUSTER AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AND THE ADDITION OF WHEELER COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE EXPECTED 4 INCH TOTALS IN THESE AREAS IS CONSISTENT
THE THE LATEST SOLNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE 05Z RAP APPEARS TO BE LEADING THE MODEL PACK FOLLOWED BY THE
HRRR AND THEN THE NAM DEVELOPING A FULL BLOWN SPRING SNOW STORM.
WATER VAPOR AND THE RAP PV 1.0 SFC SUGGEST THE NRN AND SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES MAY PHASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS ARE
COUPLING THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB PETERSON FGEN ACROSS CNTL NEB
THIS AFTN AND PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN-SNOW BAND FROM ROUGHLY 50 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF AN ARC FROM KHDE TO KBVN. THE NAM AND SREF ARE
FARTHER WEST AND NORTH WELL INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE THE RAP AND
HRRR ARE MOSTLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA IN CNTL NEB.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 50
PERCENT OF THE 05Z RAP...WHICH IS RUN EVERY HOUR. THE 07Z RAP HAS
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST QPF...1.5 INCHES...BACK WEST INTO EASTERN
FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE FORECAST PRODUCES 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ACROSS WRN NEB...SRN NEB AND CUSTER
COUNTY TODAY BUT ERRORS COULD BE LARGE IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. THE
STAKES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS ONE AS A 30-50 KT BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS FROM 850-750MB NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. 30 TO 35
MPH SFC WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP UNDER THAT JET AND EXTEND WEST THROUGH
LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN NEB DECAYING EARLY
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF A SECOND HEAVIER SNOW BAND
ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND SWRN NEB TO BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD AND
HEAVIER RAIN-SNOW BAND ACROSS CNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
TWO BANDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE 07Z RAP INDICATES 3 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS SERN CUSTER AND ERN FRONTIER COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY FALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND EVEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY MONDAY...AS A BATCH OF LATE
SEASON ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM NORTH DURING THE MORNING TO
NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S AREA WIDE...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH. IF A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES TODAY...THEN HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE 30S WHERE THE SNOW FALLS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH...ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKER LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON AN OVERALL
SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA WITH LOW POPS OF 20
TO 40 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT
LOOKS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE THE HIGHER 40 POPS
RESIDE. OTHERWISE MORE COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH...BUT HERE TOO
MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST...BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND IS NOW
BACKING OFF. THE ECMWF HAS JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR KLBF THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING THE SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO ONCE
THE SNOW ENDS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...KEEPING
VISIBILITIES AT MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 00Z...BOTH KVTN AND KLBF
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR BETTER...WITH VFR BY 03Z. WINDS WILL
ALSO STAY STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINSISH
THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT NO FURTHER GUSTS BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED MONDAY MORNING LOOK FOR GUSTS TO 20KTS AGAIN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NEZ004-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
639 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING
SHOWERS TO AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS BEHIND IT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER FROM ONEIDA COUNTY THIS EVENING
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BEING TOO DRY TO REALIZE THE SPOTTY QPF OF
EARLIER MODELS.
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SINCE THE HIGH THIN CLOUDS
ERADICATED MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE LOW 20S CELSIUS TEMPERATURES
AT 925MB /AS HAD BEEN SUGGESTED BY RUC MODEL/ WERE ABLE TO FULLY
REALIZE THEIR MIX-DOWN TEMPERATURES OF LOW 80S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...THE WARMEST READINGS IN 6 MONTHS. BINGHAMTON AIRPORT
DAILY RECORD HIGH IS 80 DEGREES SET IN 1977...AND IT TURNED OUT
JUST 1 DEGREE SHORT OF IT TODAY. SYRACUSE AND AVOCA ALSO JUST A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF DAILY RECORDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY MILD TEMPS TDA WITH WARM SWLY FLOW. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED -SHRA
ACRS NRN ONEIDA LATE TDA OR THIS EVNG OTRW A DRY FCST. VERY MILD
MINS TNGT.
NXT SYSTEM APRCHS TMRW. A FEW MDLS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ALONG A
PRE-FNTL TROF OVER CNTRL NY ARND MID DAY. IN ANY EVENT...INCRSNG
CHCS FOR SHRA TMRW AFTN WITH MAXES GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS. TEMPS MAY FALL DURING THE AFTN WRN ZONES AS CLDS AND SCT
-SHRA MOVE IN. GUSTY SSW WINDS CONTINUE ON MON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE/ANAFRONT
MOVS THRU ON TUE WITH WEAK SFC WAVES RIDING NE ALONG IT.
TIMING OF THIS FNT ON TUE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FCST
W/RESPECT TO CHGOVER AND +RA POTNL IN THE EAST. IN GNRL 12Z RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION ZONE IS BASICALLY THRU THE CWA
BY 00Z WED...AND NAM/GFS SFC INDICATE RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LVLS WITH THE
FNT ON TUE.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
STORM...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER TIMING. WE COULD
SEE PL IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST PLAY IT AS RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. GIVEN A COUPLE OF VERY WARM DAYS THINK ICE POTNL
FROM NAM PROFILES IS OVERDONE. WE DID LIKE THE WWD SNOW ACCUMS
WITH POTNL FOR GNRLY 2-4 INCHES ON TUE AFTN/EVNG ACRS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL NY.
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUE NGT...WITH LAKE
CLDS LIKELY SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WED MRNG IN NWLY FLOW. MUCH
COOLER WITH MAXES ONLY U30S TO L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
635 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
CONDITIONS APPROACHED CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON /SUNDAY/ BUT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK OFF THIS EVENING ALONG WITH GRADUALLY
RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. FAIRLY WARM WITH STOUT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN MONDAY...BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES MONDAY...VERSUS WHAT WE JUST HAD THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL BE A GOOD 15 TO 25 PERCENT HIGHER. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A SOLID
WETTING RAIN TUESDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. EVEN SOME
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
NY/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT KRME/KSYR, A NON RESTRICTIVE
LIGHT SHOWER IN POSSIBLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT BUT NOT
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY JUST HIGH CLOUDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SFC
TROF. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID MORNING AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 3O
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT/TUE...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1237 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING A
SOAKING RAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1020 AM UPDATE...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR NRN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG FOR POTNL -SHRA AS NXT WEAK S/WV GOES BY.
ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL
BNDRY. OTRW HI CLD DECK HAS THINNED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WITH MAXES ARND
80 CNTRL SRN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. PREV BLO...
825 AM UPDATE...WE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACRS NRN ZONES AS MOST OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVD OUT OF THE RGN. LOTS OF UPR CLD ACRS THE
AREA TDA. RUC ADVERTISES 925 TEMPS OF 20-22C IN AN AXIS ACRS THE
CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHICH IF MIXED DOWN WITH FULL
SUN WOULD RESULT IN MAXES OF 80-85. THESE 925 FCST TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEG WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE (WE NOTE +17C AT 925 FROM THE 12Z
BUF SNDG). GIVEN THIS AND THE ABUNDANT CLD HI CLD CVR WE`LL LEAVE
MAXES AS IS. PREV BLO...
5 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADD IN SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLD
SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AND WRN CATS FORMING ON NOSE OF H8 LLJ. HV RMVD
THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS MRNG FM ALL GRIDS AS NO LGTNG STRIKES
NOTED IN THE LAST 4 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME WITH BULK OF THE PCPN LKLY TO BE NORTH OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
330 AM UPDATE...
WMFNT WL LIFT THRU CWA THIS MRNG, LVG AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND SWRLY
FLOW. LGT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS NRN ZONES THIS MRNG WL LIFT NORTH AS
BNDRY LIFTS THRU THE REGION. CLDS WL GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECREASE
BUT WITH AREA IN INCRSG MID-LVL MOISTURE RIDING NORTH EXPECT
CUMULUS TO DVLP AND RESULT IN PCLDY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO +12C EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WL BE SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN YDA WITH L/M 70S COMMON
ACRS THE AREA - NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.
WARM SW FLOW WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS CWA RMNS LOCKED INTO WM SECTOR.
BY 12Z MONDAY EXPECT CDFNT TO BE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE THUMB OF
LWR MICHIGAN AND SLIDING EAST.
GOM WL BE WIDE OPEN TONIGHT WITH H8 WINDS DRAWING IN PW VALUES
APPCHG 1 INCH BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS ALREADY 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YR. DWPT VALUES WL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH
OVRNGT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
FRONT WL APPCH EVER CLOSER DRG THE DAY MONDAY, BUT STILL RMN FAR
ENUF TO THE WEST THAT PCPN WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MV INTO CWA MUCH
BFR 21Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO WL OCCUR AFT 18Z
AS LEAD S/WV TRACKS THRU THE AREA BUT BEST FRCG LOOKS TO BE ALONG
FRONT TWD 00Z. HV BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH POPS FOR MON AFTN TO
ACCNT FOR SLOWER MVMNT OF CDFNT PER 00Z NAM AND EC. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCRS ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THAN GIVING
WAY TO ISOLD CONVECTION BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN INCRSG MOISTURE ALONG
WITH CLDS HV DROPPED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT STILL RANGING
IN THE LWR TO UPR 70S. AN 80-DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME TUE MRNG, THUS HV BUMPED
TEMPS AND DWPT VALUES UP FOR MON NGT. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
LOCKED INTO SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AFTER 06Z. MED RANGE MODELS
GIVING SOME INDICATION OF LIGHTER PCPN OCCURRING IN SHADOWING
AFFECTS IN SRLY FLOW ACRS CNTR SXN OF CWA TWD 12Z. THUS, EXPECT
HIGHER QPF AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TUE ACRS NW ZONES AND TERRAIN
AREAS OF SERN ZONES.
FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DRG THE DAY ON TUE WITH RAINY DAY
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO FALL DRG THE MAIN PART OF THE DAY
WITH STORM-TOTAL QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED ARND 1 INCH. THIS WL
BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RRQ OF 250MB JET STREAK LEADING TO STRONG
FRCG OVR MOST OF CWA DRG THE DAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL DRG THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK ACRS NRN ZONES, MID-MRNG OVR CNTRL SXNS AND
EARLY AFTN ACRS NEPA. HV SIDED WITH NON-DIURNAL TREND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AS THEY SEEM TO BE MOST REASONABLE. 00Z EURO LOOKS WAY TOO
COLD FOR TEMPS ON TUE WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE BY 00Z
WED.
TUE NGT EXPECTED TO BE VRY CLD WITH LOWS ULTIMATELY DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS OVR NRN ONEIDA CNTY. ANY LINGERING PCPN
WL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHG TO SNOW DRG THE OVRNGT WITH ONLY A
DUSTING EXPECTED OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CATS. SFC HIPRES QUICKLY
BUILDS IN AFT 06Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THEN DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WILL
BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOLLOWED BY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAXES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S WITH
SOME MODIFICATION ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES A SFC LOW
IN THE TN VALLEY AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VCNTY THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. A WET SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER THEN MOVES IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
KEEPING THE REGION BASICALLY DRY. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE. LGT RAIN SHWRS
EARLY ON IN THE VICINITY OF SYR AND RME WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NY. AS THE HEATING CYCLE
BEGINS...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS LIKELY UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY UPPER CI EXPECTED AFTER 04Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR.
MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
WED...VFR.
THURS...VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
351 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS CREATED ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING
DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME INCREASED MOISTURE HAS HELPED SPAWN
WIDESPREAD SCT/BKN DIURNAL CU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WESTWARD
ADVANCING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. HRRR STILL SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CU TODAY BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 800MB IS PREVENTING MUCH
VERTICAL DEPTH TO THE CU...AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN EXCEEDINGLY
DRY. THUS...HAVE KEPT POP TO SILENT AND JUST CARRIED A TOKEN 5%
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE UNTIL NIGHTFALL. ANY PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG
WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER...WILL ERODE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH ACT TO PUMP ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. ONCE AGAIN
THERE MAY BE A FOG CONCERN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE SAME WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED...CREATING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE 0. ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 25-30
KTS...ABOUT 10 KTS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY HELP
MIX OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES ARE
ALSO MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF FOG
OUT OF THE WX GRIDS...BUT SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY QUITE WARM ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOWS
DROPPING ONLY INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...UPPER 50S IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S UNDER A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE WINDS AT H8
AND H9 ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...PEAKING AROUND 50 KT AT H8 AROUND
18Z...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES PEAK IN THE 250 TO
350 RANGE. GIVEN FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS
UPPER 70S...CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE ON TAP. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED MAKE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY. A
POTENTIAL FURTHER COMPLICATION FOR TUESDAY IS TEMPERATURES. TEXT
MOS BULLETINS ARE GIVING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
UNLESS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BUT IF IT DID...THE
RESULTING CAPE VALUES WOULD REACH OR EXCEED 2500 J/KG. THAT WOULD
GREATLY ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING
AND BRING A RAPID END TO THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONG
CAA SETS UP LATE AND MINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
ANOTHER WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT SHOULD END
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...EVOLVING INTO A
PERSISTENT WEDGE WED AND THU. NE TO E FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT
WILL BE TOPPED BY A WSW TO W FLOW. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THE DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK FORMIDABLE. THEREFORE...
WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS EASTERLY WED NIGHT
AND THU.
AS THE WEDGE REORIENTS ITSELF THU NIGHT AND FRI...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH. THE LONG TERM MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT DO
DIFFER AS TO ITS JUXTAPOSITION. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE
WEDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHOULD BE DRAWN TO A POSITION VERY NEAR...IF NOT ON THE COAST. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES DO
INCREASE FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE FOR SUN WITH PERHAPS AN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. COLUMN LOOKS MUCH TOO DRY
BELOW 10 KFT TO SUPPORT RAINFALL AND SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
THRESHOLD FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU AND MAXIMUMS MAY
NOT EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT
WILL BE WELL DOWN IN THE 40S AND MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME
INLAND SPOTS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER SLOWLY FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...COMBINATION OF THE MEAN WIND AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE S/SE WINDS THROUGH THE AFTN...STRONGEST AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. DIURNAL CU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BKN...ESPECIALLY INLAND...BUT VFR WILL REMAIN
THROUGH NIGHTFALL. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...BUT BELIEVE THE AIR ALOFT IS TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE...SO HAVE NOT
ADDED A MENTION INTO ANY TAF.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG LOCALLY...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE LESS THAN NEAR THE
COAST AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AT
FLO/LBT...ALONG WITH SOME SCT IFR STRATUS SINCE WINDS OF 25-30 KTS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION COULD FORCE A STRATUS LAYER AS OPPOSED
TO FOG. SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO ADVECT ONSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES
TOWARDS MORNING.
VFR WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE
LOCALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS TODAY...BUT THESE WILL RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT TO
10-15 KTS FROM THE S/SE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS COMBINATION
OF INCREASED WINDS AND A CONTINUING LOW-AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 2-4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. S TO SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT MONDAY MORNING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND PEAK AROUND 7 FT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AFTER THE
FROPA TUESDAY EVENING...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING 8 OR 9 FT AT 20 NM BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING...WILL NOT ISSUE A 4TH
PERIOD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT ONE WILL BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT
TUESDAY AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE INTO WED.
THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED AND
THU. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO WED AND IT IS DURING THIS
TIME THAT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE MOST PROBABLE. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS...IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
THEREFORE...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THU NIGHT OR FRI. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE NE...VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ON FRI. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WED...7 TO 9 FT
AND UP TO 10 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AS A DRY AND CHILLY NE
SURGE ENVELOPS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL FRI.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...43/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
307 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 PM SUN...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THUS INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY...81-83F INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN
COAST. LASTEST HRRR AND MESOMODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
INLAND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND MAY
HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA-BREEZE TO PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO. CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER YESTERDAY WITH PWATS
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AROUND 2/3" AND WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A TYPICAL SEABREEZE PATTERN CLEARING CLOUDS FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EWD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING INCREASING SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING S/SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 900MB AS WELL AS
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT LATE...SO TREND SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
MIXING CONTINUES TO BRING MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED BY MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL US INTO EAST WHILE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE LIFTING OUT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION AND
MAYBE SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THEN EXPECTING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 500+ J/KG WITH A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET, LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF -2 TO -4 AND PW VALUES TO 1.75" WHICH IS > +2 SD FROM NORMAL.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S ESPECIALLY IF ANY PROLONGED
SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOP.
WANING CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH. LOWS MAY REACH NEAR 40 INLAND EARLY WED AND DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH PERSISTS IN THE WEDGE SURFACE
PATTERN, HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY
IN STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRES WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT WED NIGHT
WITH LOWS INLAND POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S DEPENDING ON
THE DEGREE OF DECOUPLING. HOWEVER AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH STILL INFLUENCES THE
WEATHER WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S WHICH IS
STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND WILL BE LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A LOT SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. THE WEDGE
PATTERN OF MID WEEK WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST WITH POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT ALONG OR JUST
OFF OF THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH/POSSIBLE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA. THUS WILL NEED TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS.
DRIER WEATHER COULD BE IN STORE FOR EASTER SUNDAY IF A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE MOISTURE OFFSHORE.
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS MODERATING
FROM THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S FRIDAY BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCUMULUS OVERSPREADS THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 2K FT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LEAD TO
PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PREDOMINANT VFR
RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN FRIDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATES SOUTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING S/SSW FLOW.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING BUT SOME TIGHTENING OF
THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES WINDS TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONG SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN AN INLAND WEDGE/OFFSHORE FRONT SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. WINDS SHIFT MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY DECREASE THURSDAY
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ELEVATED
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
122 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 115 PM SUN...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THUS INCREASED
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY...81-83F INLAND TO MID 70S OBX/SOUTHERN
COAST. LASTEST HRRR AND MESOMODELS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
INLAND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND MAY
HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA-BREEZE TO PRODUCE A
SHOWER OR TWO. CLOUDS AND ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS OVER YESTERDAY WITH PWATS
A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AROUND 2/3" AND WILL SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A TYPICAL SEABREEZE PATTERN CLEARING CLOUDS FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EWD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING INCREASING SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES PERSISTS OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING S/SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 900MB AS WELL AS
INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT LATE...SO TREND SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
MIXING CONTINUES TO BRING MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FULL
LATITUDE TROF DIGGING THRU THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW WITH SFC HIGH OFFSHORE PROVIDING A
DEEPENING MOIST SW FLOW MONDAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. SHUD SEE PLENTY OF SUN EARLY
MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND (AROUND 70
BEACHES) ON THE MILD SW FLOW BEFORE AFTERNOON INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN. THE MILD SW FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SHARP UPPER TROF
AND SFC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING. CAPE VALUES 500+ J/KG AND 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL MENTION THE
THREAT IN UPDATED HWO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY PUT A LID
ON HIGH TEMPS BUT MOST AREAS SHUD REACH INTO THE 70S ESPECIALLY IF
ANY PROLONGED SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
WANING CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. LOWS MAY REACH NEAR 40 INLAND EARLY WED AND DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS 15-20 DEGS BLO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WEDGE HOLDS TIGHT WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS INLAND POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE
COAST WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN
OFFSHORE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BACKS UP TOWARD THE SE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
SURGING BACK INTO THE 60S THU/FRI. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE LATE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND COURTESY OF THE INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROF AND APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STRATOCUMULUS OVERSPREADS THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 2K FT DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSTMS LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
GUSTY SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT
TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PREDOMINANT VFR RETURNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM SUN...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATES SOUTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING S/SSW FLOW.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING BUT SOME TIGHTENING OF
THE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES WINDS TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVES AROUND 2 FT BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU THE MARINE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY NEARING GALE FORCE AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE NE BUT ONLY VERY SLOWLY
DECREASING THRU THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...BTC/SK/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES. STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGES. ALSO INCREASE SKY THERE FOR CONSISTENCY. REST OF
FORECAST REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
6 AM UPDATE. WIDELY SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MID LEVEL SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...ON THE NOSE OF AN 850
MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THESE ARE TRACKING NORTHEAST...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF PERRY...VINTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE JUST
A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST
OHIO WILL DECREASE TO JUST MAINLY THIN CIRRUS DURING THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF AREA NO CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BIG ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE FIRE DANGER. WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN PLACES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO 80S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A RECENT HISTORY
OF COLD BIAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE
TODAY...SO THAT THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS AND DRYING FUELS
PRESENT AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT. THE RAP MODEL IN THE HI RES SUITE
OF MODELS SHOW THIS MOST CLEARLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY. WE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT TODAY. WILL MONITOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY THRU
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS DO SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WHILE
CLOUDS DO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILING AND CLOUDS INCREASING.
LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT BEING DEPICTED AS
STRONG COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...COLD
FRONT IS POTENT AND WILL EXPECT A LINE OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
STRONG WINDS DESPITE THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY
STILL LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. QUESTIONS
ARISE IN THE POPS AHEAD OF THIS EXPECTED LINE ON MONDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CANNOT LEAVE POPS OUT...BUT IN EFFORTS TO GET MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION CHANCES...HAVE TRIMMED
THE FRONT END BY A FEW HOURS AND WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
INTRODUCING THE HIGHER POPS. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE MAIN
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO CLEAR THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OUT OF THE
CWA...NECESSITATING THE CHANCES FOR POPS INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THICKNESSES
DROPPING TO AROUND 520DKM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -10-12C RANGE...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. LIKELY WILL HAVE A SHARP DISCREPANCY IN BETWEEN THE
HILL TOPS AND THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET REST OF THE WORK WEEK WX WISE. CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING WELL
BELOW FREEZING. SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORE ROBUST WARM UP OCCURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND WAA COMMENCES ON
DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS
BECOME EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY REGARDING INBOUND TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. WILL PLAY IT CLOSE TO WPC AND GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
AT THIS DISTANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CROSSING THE AREA. SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS EXPECTED. RADAR VAD WINDS SHOW SOUTHWEST
WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ABOUT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD PRODUCE
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE MAINLY AFFECTING BKW AND EKN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS SHOW INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT. UNDER WAA AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COULD DECOUPLE PRODUCING
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS WINDS
ALOFT. THIS COULD PRODUCE LLWS FOR AREAS THAT DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY WITH DIURNAL MIXING GUSTY UP
TO 30 KNOTS ACCOUNTING FOR BUFKIT SOUNDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
MIXING COULD BE BEST IF A DIURNAL DECK CU DEVELOPS PROVIDING AREAS
OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THE INCREASE IN WINDS IS DUE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT COULD
ENTER SOUTHEAST OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OR BY 18Z MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP OVER BKW AND OTHER MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS UNDER SURFACE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR CEILINGS AROUND
8000 FEET AND A BRIEF SHOWER OVER PARTS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS COULD BE INCLUDED IN TAF LATER IF
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...MAINLY AT EKN AND CRW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ/26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
409 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODELS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS
OVER TIME...WITH TORNADO PROBABILITIES BEING QUITE LOW DUE TO THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT DIE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS SO THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY UPPER TROF
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A FREEZE IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE NOW
PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FREEZE WARNING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON...WHICH AT TUL/MLC/FYV/FSM ARE THE SAME
AS THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE OF APRIL 15TH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 38 47 28 61 / 50 30 0 0
FSM 46 50 28 61 / 80 30 10 0
MLC 41 48 29 61 / 60 20 10 0
BVO 36 47 25 61 / 40 30 0 0
FYV 39 43 24 57 / 80 30 10 0
BYV 40 43 25 56 / 80 40 10 0
MKO 40 47 27 60 / 60 30 10 0
MIO 37 44 26 59 / 50 40 10 0
F10 39 47 28 61 / 50 20 10 0
HHW 46 52 30 60 / 70 20 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
415 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE BACKED AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT MID-
LEVEL WESTERLY JET WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
FORCED LINE OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
.OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SPECIFICALLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1000 TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE ON HAND...ALONG WITH LI/S -6 TO
-8C...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 60KTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS AND THE LOCATION OF LOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 30S...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
TO FEND OFF ANY FROST FORMING OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
BE WHAT DEVELOPS INSTEAD.
BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S
DURING THE DAY AS STRONG CAA WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL DAY LONG.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF VERY QUICKLY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S
AND MANY PLACES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WARNING
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-SOUTH.
.THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN BY LATE SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF TSRA ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. FOR THE
18Z TAFS... HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON 12Z
NAM AND 15Z HRRR MODELS. TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY PERIOD
BEYOND 03Z...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF. HAVE LIMITED TS/VCTS MENTION TO
THOSE PERIODS MOST FAVORABLE. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE LULL
DURING THE 11Z TO 15Z PERIOD...BUT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
WITH SCATTERED SHRA.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE STRONG
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WHICH IS JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TODAY AND RAIN ARRIVING INTO MID-SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
NEW ZONES AND GRIDS ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
AC3
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH MORE RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN THEY ARE RIGHT NOW.
THERE WILL BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEST ARKANSAS BY
SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
POSSIBLY TRACK AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE SUNSET. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS AREA
INCLUDES LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TO
OXFORD. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND IN A DIRECTION MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ENHANCING INSTABILITY TO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG
OVERNIGHT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 50-55KT AND A MID LEVEL JET OF 70
KTS. DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO VENT STORMS
EARLY...BUT DIMINISHES A BIT BY 06Z. BEFORE MIDNIGHT FEEL LIKE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH RATHER
THAN DEVELOP HERE...SO IT SHOULD GIVE US A BIT MORE TIME TO
PREPARE AS WE SEE THINGS INITIATE TO OUR WEST. A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SUSTAINED BETWEEN 17 AND 22KT...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH FALLING
OR STEADY TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS LOWS DIP INTO THE MID 30S. A
FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AREA WIDE AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. IT SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S.
THE WARMING TREND...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS QUESTIONABLE. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH IN ITS
SOLUTION...BUT HAS TRENDED WETTER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW...BUT LIKELY TREND WETTER IN UPCOMING UPDATES.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND DRY.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF TSRA ARRIVAL THIS EVENING. FOR THE
18Z TAFS... HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON 12Z
NAM AND 15Z HRRR MODELS. TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY PERIOD
BEYOND 03Z...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF. HAVE LIMITED TS/VCTS MENTION TO
THOSE PERIODS MOST FAVORABLE. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE LULL
DURING THE 11Z TO 15Z PERIOD...BUT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
WITH SCATTERED SHRA.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
BUSY PERIOD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HEAVY RAIN...SNOW...AND STRONG
WINDS ARE ALL CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CURRENTLY...THE LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED WARM
FRONT THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP IN THE REGION. MOST
OF THE 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT THE 13.19Z RAP SHOWS STAYS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND DOES NOT REACH THE REGION. SO...THINKING THAT THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THIS RAIN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN STILL FORECAST FOR THE SAME
AREAS THAT WERE HIT BY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...HAVE KEPT
THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WE GO WHERE THE CONCERN IS ON WHEN
THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH HOW WINDY IT WILL BE. IN REGARD TO THE
SNOW...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON WHAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE. LOOKING OUT WEST
RIGHT NOW...MOST OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING SNOW ARE IN THE
30F TO 35F RANGE THOUGH SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURE DROPS APPEAR TO
BE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING THANKS TO THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH THE COLUMN. BASED ON THE 13.19Z RAP & 13.12Z NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHANGE OVER SHOULD OCCUR TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 8-10PM IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS CHANGE OVER WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SNOW TOTALS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS A
RESULT SINCE A LOT HINGES ON HOW FAST THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS...IS
THERE STRONG FORCING STILL THERE AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...AND
ALSO IF THERE EVEN IS ICE THERE AS A LOT OF THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER BETWEEN -8C TO -20C. MOST OF THE 13.12Z COBB DATA FROM
THE NAM/GFS IS SHOWING ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCURRING OVERNIGHT
THOUGH A LOT OF THE SREF DATA IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT. GIVEN THE
NUMBER OF NEGATIVES WORKING AGAINST THIS...TRENDED TOWARD THESE
LOWER TOTALS WHICH STILL ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT PREVIOUSLY WAS
BEING FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. THE MAIN SNOW SHOULD FALL BETWEEN
7PM-1AM IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THEN BETWEEN
1AM-7AM IN WESTERN WISCONSIN/FAR NORTHEAST IOWA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH THE LOW. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE 30 TO 40KT WINDS
ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE AREA WHERE SNOW IS FALLING. CONCERNED
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST IOWA WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME 35 TO 40KT WINDS MIXING DOWN AS THE SNOW IS COMING
DOWN. DISCUSSED THE IDEA OF DOING A WINTER WEATHER OR WIND ADVISORY
WITH MPX/DMX...BUT DECIDED THAT THE WIND GUSTS MAY NOT HIT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE
A LARGE IMPACT. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS
EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE QUICK UPGRADE WITH THE 9PM TO 3AM TIME
FRAME THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
THE MAIN STORIES THROUGH THIS WEEK ARE WITH THE POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATER IN THE WEEK.
MORE FOCUS WENT INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SINCE
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THE
13.12Z NAM/GFS DEVELOPS A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 13.12Z ECMWF KEEPS US DRY. SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE NAM/GFS SCENARIOS THOUGH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE THANKS TO THE ECMWF. IT LOOKS LIKE WE GET
WARM SECTORED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM STALLS OUT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SETTING UP FROM UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
IOWA ON THURSDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS THEN SPINS UP A POTENT SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY THAT TRACKS THROUGH WISCONSIN WHILE EH ECMWF HARDLY HAS A
LOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
WIDESPREAD -RA/RA AND SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBYS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 1 TO
4SM RANGE WITH IFR CIGS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR THEN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE RAIN MIXING WITH/
CHANGING TO SNOW THRU THE MID EVENING HOURS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN QUITE TIGHT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15-20KTS G25-30KTS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST FOR LATER TONIGHT/MON. DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO END AROUND 07Z AT KRST
AND AROUND 09Z AT KLSE...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR AND CIGS RISING
INTO MVFR/VFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014
WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN FALLING INTO TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THIS AREA AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...SAW NO NEED TO DROP
IT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH INSTABILITY THAT MAKES IT UP
IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SO MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD NOT FALL AT A GREAT ENOUGH OF A RATE TO PROMPT FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ043-044-053>055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH