Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/12/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
313 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERN OF THE DAY REMAINS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE.
NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS OF 25 MPH
GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH WATER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETA-E RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETA-E SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION. FCST INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN
EARLY WED MRNG. TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT
CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT
BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED.
DELAYED STRONGEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT...AND JUST
OVER 30 KT AT KJFK...UNTIL 20Z...AND THEY SHOULD LAST UNTIL 23Z-
24Z. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW 40 KT CONTINUES AT 1 KFT AGL
THIS EVENING...THEN OVERNIGHT AS SW FLOW AT 2 KFT AGL INCREASES
TO 45-50 KT.
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS HIGH ENOUGH ONLY AT KSWF.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SMOKE ALOFT DUE TO BRUSH FIRE OVER CENTRAL
NJ COULD LIMIT SLANT RANGE VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIR BRIEFLY
BACKED TO 160 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SMOKE ALOFT DUE TO BRUSH FIRE OVER CENTRAL
NJ COD LIMIT SLANT RANGE VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIR BRIEFLY
BACKED TO 160 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI AFTERNOON...SCT SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO TERMINALS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE.
.SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS LIKELY.
.MON...ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY QUICKLY
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. S WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS LIKELY.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
.TUE...RAIN LIKELY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE. EVENING COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS G20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE
20S...BEFORE IMPROVING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AFTER 18Z...WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF OVERLAPPING
20% RH VALUES AND GUSTS IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENHANCED RISK. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
108 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERN OF THE DAY REMAINS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE.
NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS OF 25 MPH
GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH WATER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETA-E RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETA-E SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION. FCST INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN
EARLY WED MRNG. TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT
CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT
BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15-25 KT AND
GUSTS 20-30 KT...PARTICULARLY AT KJFK WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 KT
EXPECTED LATE. FCST GUSTS AT KBDR/KGON COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER
THAN FCST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SW FLOW AT 2 KFT AGL
INCREASES TO 50-55 KT.
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDS.
.FRI NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO TERMINALS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. S WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND AGAIN AT NIGHT. S WINDS G20-25 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE
20S...BEFORE IMPROVING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AFTER 18Z...WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF OVERLAPPING
20% RH VALUES AND GUSTS IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENHANCED RISK. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1103 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERN OF THE DAY REMAINS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCE BY SEA BREEZE. NY
BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS OF 25 MPH GUST
30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETA-E RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETA-E SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION. FCST INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN
EARLY WED MRNG. TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT
CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT
BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15-25 KT AND
GUSTS 20-30 KT...PARTICULARLY AT KJFK WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 KT
EXPECTED LATE. FCST GUSTS AT KBDR/KGON COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER
THAN FCST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SW FLOW AT 2 KFT AGL
INCREASES TO 50-55 KT.
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDS.
.FRI NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO TERMINALS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. S WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND AGAIN AT NIGHT. S WINDS G20-25 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE
20S...BEFORE IMPROVING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AFTER 18Z...WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF OVERLAPPING
20% RH VALUES AND GUSTS IN THE 20S...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ENHANCED RISK. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
ENHANCE BY SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS
IN WINDS OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT KJFK/KLGA.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR A
FEW HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR COULD STILL
OCCUR FOR AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME.
LEFT RAIN OUT OF KEWR/KJFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...EXPECTING HIGHEST
CHANCES AFTER THAT TIMEFRAME. PUT -RA IN FOR KSWF AS RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 25 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 20 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUN-MON...VFR...S WIND GUSTS 20-25KT DURING THE AFT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
654 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
ENHANCE BY SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS
IN WINDS OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15
TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT
KJFK/KLGA.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR A
FEW HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR COULD STILL
OCCUR FOR AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 25 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 20 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUN-MON...VFR...S WIND GUSTS 20-25KT DURING THE AFT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN/NV
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCE BY
SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS
OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15
TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT
KJFK/KLGA.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR A
FEW HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR COULD STILL
OCCUR FOR AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 25 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 20 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUN-MON...VFR...S WIND GUSTS 20-25KT DURING THE AFT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN/NV
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCE BY
SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS
OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
FEW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND SUNRISE INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT KJFK/KLGA. POTENTIAL IN LATE
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL JET FORMATION AND 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT
KJFK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR...WITH GUSTY S WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN/NV
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. DEEP
AND SHARP TROUGH THAT PIVOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS NOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO DEAMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
FL PENINSULA. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
HAS ALSO HELPED TO SIGNIFICANT DRY OUT THE TROP COLUMN. THE DRYING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS VERY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY WITH A VERY
DRY SWATH OF AIR OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. THE
10/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE REALLY SHOWS JUST HOW DRY THE COLUMN
HAS BECOME WITH A PW VALUE BELOW 0.5"...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 40C THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF
THE TROP. THE DRY COLUMN AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS RESULTING IN
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHOVED FOR THE MOMENT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN GOMEX AND OVER CUBA/FL STRAITS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOCAL GRADIENT HAS ALSO WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 12-24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL GOMEX. THIS RIDGE IS NOW SETTLING OVER TOP OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THE DRY COLUMN AND LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND STILL EXPECT
SOME 40S FOR LOW TEMPS BY SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST.
THE COOLING WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A COUPLE
MONTHS AGO AS WE ARE NOW WELL INTO THE GROWING SEASON AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL HELP TO KEEP THE AIR MORE MOIST IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER NOW THAT THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AS ENDED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL MORNING FOR THE MIDDLE
OF APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A BENIGN PATTERN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MORNING
WILL START OUT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR...WITH THIS HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK WEST AND
CONTROL THE FL PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A VERY DRY TROP COLUMN WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ONLY GIVE WAY
TO A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A FEW-SCT
SHALLOW CU FIELD IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
CONVERGENCE BAND BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZES.
HOWEVER...EVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALLY LACKING AND AS DIURNAL
MIXING GETS HIGHER AND HIGHER WE ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE
REALLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND DISSIPATE ANY CU THAT HAVE FORMED. GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING UP TO OVER 5000FT AT MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 NORTH...AND INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED ALONG AREA BEACHES AS TERRESTRIAL HEATING FORCES SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS. THIS SEA-BREEZE
WILL BE MOST WELL DEFINED AND MOVE FURTHEST INLAND ALONG THE NATURE
COAST...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...AND WHERE OPPOSING
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE (950-875MB) WILL BE WEAKEST.
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OTHER THAN A SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS AT TIMES. SEA-BREEZE WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY NEAR THE COAST
WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE FAVORED SYNOPTIC EASTERLY/OFFSHORE
DIRECTION BY LATE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S OVER THE NATURE
COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW SUCH AS SOUTHERN
PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE CHARLOTTE HARBOUR AREA SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. ENJOY YOUR THURSDAY!
&&
.MID TERM (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS NEAR-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ALOFT. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...TO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND COASTAL TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S INLAND AND SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
TO THE MID 50S NORTH...TO AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING AN
E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND AND SOUTH...AND THAT IN COMBINATION
WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND AND SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS
EACH MORNING FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50 TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO IN THE
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH IT...WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH...AND AROUND 80 COASTAL TO
THE MID 80S INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.
SOME COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S NORTH...TO AROUND 80 COASTAL TO THE MID 80S INLAND
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
10/06Z THROUGH 11/12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SWITCH WEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ.
ELSEWHERE THE SEA-BREEZE IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INLAND
FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL AGAIN SWITCH BACK
LIGHT EASTERLY/OFFSHORE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
OFFSHORE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS BEFORE ALL
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING OUR WIND AND SEAS FORECAST LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...20 FT WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION WILL NOT SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE CLOSEST TO RED FLAG...BUT STILL FALL SHORT...OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE EAST
COAST SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUMP UP THE WINDS FROM THE
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRESCRIBED BURNS CLOSE TO THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ANTICIPATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE MOVES INLAND. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE MOST
DEFINED AND MOVE FURTHEST INLAND ALONG THE NATURE COAST ZONES. A
SLOW INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL PREVENT ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING REACHED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 84 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 81 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 79 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 80 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 77 63 82 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...COLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW HAS SET UP AT THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z AT THE TAF SITES. THE EASTERLY FLOW
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO STRONG TO GET A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH KAPF. HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY WEAKEN AT
KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. FEW/SCT 4KFT CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...WITH
SCT/BKN CIRRUS AT 25-30KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
WHERE A DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD SET UP LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL LOWER
THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE SEAS IN THE
GULF WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS EVENING TO
6 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL LET THE SCA DROP AT 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PUT UP A SCEC. FOR THE GULF
WATERS...THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SEAS.
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL ALSO BE UNDER A SCEC CONDITIONS
FOR THE WINDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. FOLLOWED HRRR WIND DEPICTION WITH
NW WINDS BECOMING NE SPREADING DOWN THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING NE THU WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT, EXCEPT A GULF SEA BREEZE (NW
AT KAPF) BY LATE AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ONLY TRICKY PART
ABOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS THE WIND...WHICH HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATED BY ALL GUIDANCE SINCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM THE EAST...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA.
THEREFORE...A STRONGER-THAN-FORECASTED PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE
THE CAUSE OF THESE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BOTH
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
HENCE...WIND WILL PROBABLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A
DAY OR TWO...AND THEN A STEADY INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA MOVES NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING HUMID AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. AN
INTERESTING DETAIL TO NOTE...LATEST MAV GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS TREND WAS DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST TIME...THEREFORE WILL GIVE
GUIDANCE ONE MORE CHANCE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
12 KNOTS AROUND 14-15Z ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 68 80 70 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 71 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 80 69 81 71 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 83 62 86 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
/ISSUED 310 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN AGREEMENT KEEPING A SLOWER SYSTEM. THIS WOULD
BRING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THESE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
17
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY ACROSS THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW BUT APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 3 HOURS IN DURATION. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF THIS
DURATION EXPANDS AT ALL.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE FEW AT 5-6 KFT TODAY THEN ONLY FEW CIRRUS FOR NORTHERN
SITES TONIGHT. WINDS INITIALLY CALM TO LIGHT WEST BECOMING SW AT
NEAR 7 KTS OR LESS AFTER 14-15Z THEN LIGHT SW TONIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 48 76 49 / 0 0 5 5
ATLANTA 73 52 75 53 / 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 70 46 73 45 / 0 0 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 73 46 76 48 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 75 49 78 52 / 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 71 51 75 51 / 0 0 10 10
MACON 76 45 78 50 / 0 0 5 5
ROME 73 46 77 48 / 0 0 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 74 42 76 49 / 0 0 5 5
VIDALIA 76 51 80 54 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11/TDP
LONG TERM...17/20
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NONE. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MIDDAY HOUR. AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONT...THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL
PENETRATE. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THIS SHEDS SOME DOUBT
THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TO PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH THIS THINKING...I THINK IT WILL
BE HARD TO GET THE NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT INTO ORD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
MDW AS WELL. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...I WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE ORD TAF...BUT WILL KEEP THE
MENTION AT KMDW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE STRONGEST. THE
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR RAIN IS VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD AND MIDWAY STILL
INDICATE DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND CLOUD BASES STILL REMAIN VERY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY THEN SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC RA DURING THE DAY. MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SCHC -RASN.
WEDNESDAY...SCHC -RA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NONE.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MIDDAY HOUR. AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONT...THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL
PENETRATE. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THIS SHEDS SOME DOUBT
THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TO PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH THIS THINKING...I THINK IT WILL
BE HARD TO GET THE NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT INTO ORD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
MDW AS WELL. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...I WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE ORD TAF...BUT WILL KEEP THE
MENTION AT KMDW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE STRONGEST. THE
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR RAIN IS VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD AND MIDWAY STILL
INDICATE DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND CLOUD BASES STILL REMAIN VERY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY THEN SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC RA DURING THE DAY. MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SCHC -RASN.
WEDNESDAY...SCHC -RA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1112 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN...WAITING
FOR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD BE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD POP UP SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE VICINITY. HRRR CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL POP UP SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SLIGHT POP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST TEMP TRENDS. ALSO WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
IN OUR COOLEST AREAS/LOCATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH TN THIS EVENING
WILL CLIP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AND DIEING OFF. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THUS FAR THROUGH THE EVENING. IT CURRENTLY HINTS AT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD...IN LINE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
ITS RETREAT NORTHWARD. CONSIDERING THIS AND WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BROUGHT HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH
OBS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD ATTM...BUT CURRENTLY RUNNING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SUDDEN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SEEING SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SO ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST TRENDS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION OUT TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN KY THAT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO GENERATE ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW AM NOT BUYING INTO NEW CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH CURRENT FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. BUT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST IS MAKING A BEE LINE STRAIGHT EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. WILL BE LOOKING OVER TRENDS A BIT MORE
CAREFULLY. SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE IN THE MAKING WITHIN
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FELT SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL EXISTS. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS LINE OF THOUGHT.
THEREFORE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT
SEVERAL OF OUR TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KTS SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH TN THIS EVENING
WILL CLIP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AND DIEING OFF. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THUS FAR THROUGH THE EVENING. IT CURRENTLY HINTS AT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD...IN LINE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
ITS RETREAT NORTHWARD. CONSIDERING THIS AND WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BROUGHT HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH
OBS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD ATTM...BUT CURRENTLY RUNNING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SUDDEN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SEEING SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SO ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST TRENDS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION OUT TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN KY THAT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO GENERATE ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW AM NOT BUYING INTO NEW CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH CURRENT FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. BUT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST IS MAKING A BEE LINE STRAIGHT EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. WILL BE LOOKING OVER TRENDS A BIT MORE
CAREFULLY. SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE IN THE MAKING WITHIN
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FELT SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL EXISTS. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS LINE OF THOUGHT.
THEREFORE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT
SEVERAL OF OUR TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KTS SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...THEN WASHES
OUT OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE MIXING
DIES DOWN. CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH WITH WEAK SUPPORT AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST HELPS TO USHER THE FRONT
SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BULK OF ANY
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE HRRR AND RUC BOTH
SHOW DEPICT THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND ONLY BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...STILL POSSIBLE
TO GET A SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS RICHMOND. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30%
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIMINISHING SHOWERS.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 50-55.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VA ON SATURDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT NEARBY BUT
THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION SAT AFTN.
LIGHT NE-E LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO LOWER A LITTLE
FROM TODAY. HIGHS 65-70 ON THE EASTERN SHORE/IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
MID/UPR 70S WELL INLAND. PLEASANT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 50-55.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW THE FLOW TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ACTIVE WX AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AMPLIFIED/DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO DEEP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH END LIKELY POPS (70%) FOR ALL ZONES AT SOME
POINT BY TUE (THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING) AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO TREND TO EVEN HIGHER POPS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWN INTO THE 60S TO LWR 70S SE
ON TUE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP. FAVORING THE LATEST ECMWF OVER
THE GFS BUT NO OPERATIONAL MODEL HAS BEEN FOLLOWED EXCLUSIVELY FOR
THE TAIL END PERIOD OF THE SYSTEM BY WED. THE ECMWF WOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS WET WED INTO WED NIGHT AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHES FROM THE SE TO MID ATLC STATES (THE GFS WOULD
BRING DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS). AT THIS POINT...HAVE BUMPED UP
CLOUD COVER AND LINGERED CHC POPS INLAND TO LOW END LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY WED. TEMPS WILL TREND RATHER
CHILLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S (CERTAINLY COULD BE ONLY IN
THE 40S IF ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY). CLEARING/COOLER WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LWR 40S. DRY/PARTLY CLOUDY THU-FRI
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND AND
RIDGES DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL VFR THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD EVEN AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SFC HI PRES
REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK LO AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE OH VALLEY. SLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW AT 5 TO 15KT...HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ORF...PHF AND ECG. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME PASSING HI CLOUDS AND A FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF SHRA PRIMARILY AT SBY...BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF. RIC COULD ALSO BEE A BRIEF SHRA. WIND DIRECTIONS
BECOME VRB AS THE FRNT DROPS IN EARLY SAT MORNING.
HI PRES RE-BUILDS OFF THE CST SUN INTO MON...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO SLY FLOW. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. THE SCA FOR THE BAY AND...LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH THE DECREASING WINDS. SCA
FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SEAS AT
BUOY 44009 HAVE BEEN VARIABLE FROM 4-5 FT. EXPECT THEM TO BE
HOVER AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THE EVENING HRS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES OVER NC SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NNW LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN E/NE SATURDAY (NO COLD
AIR SURGE SO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KT AT MOST). HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE W LATER MONDAY. THE WIND
INITIALLY SHIFTS TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SSW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE WIND
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS.
MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...BUT EITHER WAY EXPECT A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR AND STRONG
SCA`S OR POSSIBLY GALES TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN N/NE FLOW.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/DAP
NEAR TERM...JDM/DAP/JAB
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAS/JAO
MARINE...LKB/JAO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
121 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE HIGH END GUSTS PEAKING WITHIN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH 21Z. COLD FRONT STEADILY TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BRIEF INCREASE IN
FRONTAL FORCING WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
RETAIN A HIGHER BASED VFR CEILING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EASING IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND GUST
FREQUENCY WITH TIME AS MIXING CEASES.
FOR DTW...GUSTY CONDITIONS HOLD FIRM AT A 180-200 DIRECTION THROUGH
22Z, THEN SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A
CHANCE OF VFR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS TRAILING A DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO NW ONTARIO.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POST SFC FRONTAL SHOWERS WITHIN
THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THESE FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL ENTER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DUE HOWEVER SHOW THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEEPENING OVER SE
MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS AND
CONSIDERING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION SLIDES FROM FLINT TO TOLEDO IN THE
21Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN RAPIDLY FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER OF 40-55 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A VERY
MILD PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO SRN MI. OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...TEMPS OVER MUCH OF SE MI HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW
WILL OPTIMIZE MIXING AND LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME EARLY DAY SUN.
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE 00Z NAM12 AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM...A GOOD PORTION OF SE MI MAY BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB DUE TO THE EARLIER
FROPA. THE ONSET OF MIXING WILL LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY.
THE MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW THE 40-50 KNOT WINDS NOW RESIDING ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DO HOWEVER SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS.
LONG TERM...
THE STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC JET ALIGNED ALONG THE 35TH PARALLEL IS
POISED TO SET IN MOTION A DOWNSTREAM RIPPLE EFFECT THAT WILL BE THE
DOMINATING PLAYER IN THE SENSIBLE WX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERMAL FIELD WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE MODIFICATION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY WHILE THE BEGINNINGS OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ORIENTED IN A
QUASI-ZONAL/WSW FASHION. THIS WILL ENSURE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C
BY DAY`S END FRIDAY, 8-10C BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE
MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER AND MIXING DEPTHS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
WHICH SHOULD EASILY ALLOW EVERYONE TO TOP 60 DEGREES. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
WILL MOST LIKELY HELP ENHANCE DIURNAL CU COVERAGE AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SEE NO ISSUES
WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 62-65. A PASSING SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-69, BUT
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAINED
CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW 40S.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLY ON
SATURDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN BY
BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO MAX TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ENVISION A SCENARIO IN
WHICH MOST LOCATIONS APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES WHILE LAKE
SHADOWED SPOTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
ONGOING WAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW A JET STREAK TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THIS WILL
FACILITATE ONGOING ORGANIZATION OF A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WITH
AN INITIAL WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTUAL POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE KEY AND REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
NEAR GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WARM STABLE FLOW WILL
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS SOME CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR LLWS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH
45-50 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS THAT CONDITIONS ARE TRANSITIONING FROM LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AS SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE RISE. INCREASED MIXING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z WILL LEAD TO
A RAPID TRANSITION TO STRONG SW WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MBS AROUND
18Z AND METRO DETROIT AROUND 21Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FOR DTW...EXPECT A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM SOUTH THIS
MORNING TO S-SW BY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 21Z WILL DROP WIND SPEEDS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY VEER
TO THE WEST.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS TRAILING A DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO NW ONTARIO.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POST SFC FRONTAL SHOWERS WITHIN
THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THESE FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL ENTER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DUE HOWEVER SHOW THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEEPENING OVER SE
MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS AND
CONSIDERING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION SLIDES FROM FLINT TO TOLEDO IN THE
21Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN RAPIDLY FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER OF 40-55 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A VERY
MILD PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO SRN MI. OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...TEMPS OVER MUCH OF SE MI HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW
WILL OPTIMIZE MIXING AND LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME EARLY DAY SUN.
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE 00Z NAM12 AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM...A GOOD PORTION OF SE MI MAY BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB DUE TO THE EARLIER
FROPA. THE ONSET OF MIXING WILL LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY.
THE MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW THE 40-50 KNOT WINDS NOW RESIDING ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DO HOWEVER SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS.
LONG TERM...
THE STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC JET ALIGNED ALONG THE 35TH PARALLEL IS
POISED TO SET IN MOTION A DOWNSTREAM RIPPLE EFFECT THAT WILL BE THE
DOMINATING PLAYER IN THE SENSIBLE WX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERMAL FIELD WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE MODIFICATION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY WHILE THE BEGINNINGS OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ORIENTED IN A
QUASI-ZONAL/WSW FASHION. THIS WILL ENSURE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C
BY DAY`S END FRIDAY, 8-10C BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE
MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER AND MIXING DEPTHS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
WHICH SHOULD EASILY ALLOW EVERYONE TO TOP 60 DEGREES. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
WILL MOST LIKELY HELP ENHANCE DIURNAL CU COVERAGE AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SEE NO ISSUES
WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 62-65. A PASSING SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-69, BUT
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAINED
CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW 40S.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLY ON
SATURDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN BY
BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO MAX TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ENVISION A SCENARIO IN
WHICH MOST LOCATIONS APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES WHILE LAKE
SHADOWED SPOTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
ONGOING WAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW A JET STREAK TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THIS WILL
FACILITATE ONGOING ORGANIZATION OF A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WITH
AN INITIAL WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTUAL POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE KEY AND REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
NEAR GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WARM STABLE FLOW WILL
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS TRAILING A DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO NW ONTARIO.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POST SFC FRONTAL SHOWERS WITHIN
THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THESE FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL ENTER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DUE HOWEVER SHOW THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEEPENING OVER SE
MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS AND
CONSIDERING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION SLIDES FROM FLINT TO TOLEDO IN THE
21Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN RAPIDLY FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER OF 40-55 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A VERY
MILD PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO SRN MI. OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...TEMPS OVER MUCH OF SE MI HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW
WILL OPTIMIZE MIXING AND LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME EARLY DAY SUN.
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE 00Z NAM12 AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM...A GOOD PORTION OF SE MI MAY BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB DUE TO THE EARLIER
FROPA. THE ONSET OF MIXING WILL LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY.
THE MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW THE 40-50 KNOT WINDS NOW RESIDING ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DO HOWEVER SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC JET ALIGNED ALONG THE 35TH PARALLEL IS
POISED TO SET IN MOTION A DOWNSTREAM RIPPLE EFFECT THAT WILL BE THE
DOMINATING PLAYER IN THE SENSIBLE WX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERMAL FIELD WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE MODIFICATION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY WHILE THE BEGINNINGS OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ORIENTED IN A
QUASI-ZONAL/WSW FASHION. THIS WILL ENSURE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C
BY DAY`S END FRIDAY, 8-10C BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE
MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER AND MIXING DEPTHS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
WHICH SHOULD EASILY ALLOW EVERYONE TO TOP 60 DEGREES. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
WILL MOST LIKELY HELP ENHANCE DIURNAL CU COVERAGE AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SEE NO ISSUES
WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 62-65. A PASSING SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-69, BUT
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAINED
CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW 40S.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLY ON
SATURDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN BY
BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO MAX TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ENVISION A SCENARIO IN
WHICH MOST LOCATIONS APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES WHILE LAKE
SHADOWED SPOTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
ONGOING WAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW A JET STREAK TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THIS WILL
FACILITATE ONGOING ORGANIZATION OF A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WITH
AN INITIAL WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTUAL POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE KEY AND REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
NEAR GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WARM STABLE FLOW WILL
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN DECK ABOVE
10KFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN/LOWER AS SHOWERS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BRING MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS DURING FROPA...WHICH 00Z NAM12 RUN HAS DELAYED A FEW HOURS.
CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY...25+ KNOTS...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DURING THE DAY. SO...LLWS TONIGHT WILL END AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED OUT BY 13Z-15Z.
FOR DTW...WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MORNING
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (25-3O
KNOTS) REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE BY AFTERNOON
AS COLD FRONT/SHOWERS ENCROACH ON THE AREA.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST 19Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TIED WITH MAIN SFC LOW MOVING
EAST INTO MANITOBA WHILE THERE WAS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NW
NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER MOVING RAPIDLY EAST IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROPELLING SYSTEMS COLD FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. WAA MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 8H WARM FRONT
HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITING MIXING AND KEPT TEMPS ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST SO HAVE HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RETURNS ALONG THIS BAND
OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN REPORTED HITTING THE GROUND AS CLOUD
CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 6KFT AND VERY DRY AIR IN LOW-LVLS OF
ATMOSPHERE AS DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING OVER WRN UPR MI AND EAST WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS
WELL NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT STAY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN. CONCERN IS WE COULD HAVE BROKEN COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO
HANG ONTO A 2-3HR PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FCST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE TO 7C ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CAPE IS
PRETTY MINIMAL (100 J/KG OR LESS). THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO IN THE
MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT 12Z...ONLY INCLUDED
CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.
INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A MILD START TO THE
DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS MAY APPROACH NEAR 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXED LAYER AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH
RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS MAY APPROACH
WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. A TRAILING WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
A SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LOW...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A TERTIARY AND MORE POTENT TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100KT UPPER JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN
MN. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO APPROACHES AT THIS TIME. BEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AND LEAD
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE. A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RUNS HAVE BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE OVER TIME. THIS
LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM FRIDAYS TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS
WI AND LOWER MI. WITH AN OPEN PATH FOR GULF MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD...THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER CHANCES OF A
MODERATE RAIN EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AMPLE SUPPORT SHOULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 110KT UPPER JET COLLOCATED
WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290-295K THETA SFCS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE RESPONSE TO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE ON PRECIP FOR THIS REASON. WHILE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY LIMIT QPF...ENOUGH OTHER FACTORS ARE IN
PLACE TO TO PUT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASED
QPF. ALSO...WEAK SFC TO LOW-LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY WILL REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS UPPER MI...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS NOTED...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL...SO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THAT TIME. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM A COLDER AND WETTER
FORECAST MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND BRINGS ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO WET SNOW AS NOTED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK. THE COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THIS EVENINGY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-40KTS)...BUT THE
ICE COVER ON THE LAKE SHOULD HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MAYBE A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER HIGHER
PLATFORMS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING
BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND (SAT NIGHT INTO SUN)...BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO
PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF/KLUBER
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SPECIFICALLY IN THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
937 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. A COLD
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE NORTHLAND...AND A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL
RESULT TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME BROKEN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA MID-LATE MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWEST AREAS...THEN PROGRESSING EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. A COLD
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE NORTHLAND...AND A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL
RESULT TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME BROKEN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA MID-LATE MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWEST AREAS...THEN PROGRESSING EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
ONCE AGAIN...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERED AROUND FIRE
WEATHER/RED FLAG CONDITIONS. DID EXPAND THE RED FLAG ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.
AT 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB 980 MB SFC LOW SW OF
HUDSON BAY WAS JUST CLEARING THE ALBERT LEA/EAU CLAIRE AREAS. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H7 TROUGH. FARTHER WEST...SHORT
WAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL
BC WILL DROP SE ON NW FLOW INTO MN TONIGHT.
FIRST...THOSE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE H7 TROUGH...THOUGH FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HI-RES MODELS WITH
THESE SHOWERS BEING LARGELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z AS SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HELP SPELL THE DEMISE OF THESE
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE CLOUDS TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING LIKE
24 HOURS AGO...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH FULL
SUNSHINE FOR ALL UNTIL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF BC.
YESTERDAY...WE FOUND OURSELVES SQUARELY IN A WARM ADVECTIVE
PATTERN...WHICH LIMITED MIXING OF BOTH WINDS/DEWPOINTS. TODAY...WE
ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND THOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL LARGELY BE DONE AFTER THIS MORNING...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN
ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE TO MIXING IN ITS WAKE. OUR AIR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE FOUND UP IN NE MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN
YESTERDAY...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS. AS A
RESULT...BLENDED RAP DEWPOINTS /WHICH AGGRESSIVELY MIXES THEM
DOWNWARD TODAY/ INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST TO GET DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH
WHAT IS A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SNOWPACK. FOR HIGHS...WITH H85 TEMPS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY...WENT WITH HIGHS UP IN A SIMILAR AREA
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...OR ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THE 20 TO 25 DEG DROP IN DEWPS
ACTUALLY RESULTS IN HUMIDITIES BEING LOWER TODAY...WITH THE CURRENT
GRIDS DROPPING HUMIDITIES DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH WINDS...FAVORED THEM TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE /IN THIS CASE THE NAM AND GFSLAMP/...AS MIXING IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH OUR FULL POTENTIAL ON
WIND SPEEDS...WHICH IS RIGHT UP AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED.
TONIGHT...WHAT WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE BC WAVE. WHAT IS MUCH
LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. SREF
PROBS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE AT A MEAGER 40% /AS OPPOSED TO
60%-80% FOR WHATS MOVING THROUGH NOW/. BIG PROBLEM FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...VERY
DRY AIR BELOW 10K FT. WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER...BROUGHT POPS DOWN
INTO THE 30S AND CONFINED CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE SREF
SPITS OUT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP IT HAS. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES/VIRGA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST:
-STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD RAIN SIGNAL ON SATURDAY
-VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN SUN-WED
THE WHOLE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
PERTURBATIONS FROM NORMAL ACROSS THE CONUS. UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE
IN MN/WI IN FAVOR OF WARMER SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS RUN 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. THE AMPLIFICATION THAT OCCURS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC IS IN THE FORM OF BUILDING
RIDGES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS ON SUNDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WITH DIFFUSE FORCING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. THE 600-700MB FGEN LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...A NICE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
ACROSS MN/WI WITH STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
EARLY IN MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN`T MOVE VERY FAST AND
HANGS JUST TO OUT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COLD RAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF YOU BUY THE 06Z NAM. BEST LI
NEAR AND MEAGER MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP INTO MN ON SATURDAY
SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME DECENT
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE SET UP.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE LOW IS EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TRACKS MO/IL AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD LEAVE US IN THE COLDER-DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND WE
WOULD MISS MOST OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S MON...TUE...AND
WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NOT A WHOLE LOT CHANGED WITH THE 12Z TAFS OTHER THAN TO BACK THE
WINDS TO A MORE WRLY DIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN TODAY. WILL AGAIN SEE
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT ALL
TERMINALS DRY TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO SUFFER FROM
THE SAME PROBLEM THIS PAST EVENINGS WAVE DID...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME -SHRA TONIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN
TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
KMSP...VFR WILL RULE THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH WIND GUSTS PICKING
BACK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SOME -SHRA BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z...BUT DRY AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST HAD...6-10K FT CIGS WITH MAINLY VIRGA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET TODAY IS ACTUALLY HIGHER
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO FOR SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.
BEING IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING AND DRIER HUMIDITIES. YESTERDAY WE HAD HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO
BE MORE OR LESS 24%-30% WHERE WE HAD THE RFW. FOR TODAY...HUMIDITIES
ARE FORECAST TO GET SOLIDLY DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE MPX AREA. THE BIG LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MEETING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH. AGAIN THE MORE EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD
MAKE THAT EASIER TO ACHIEVE AS WELL. WHEN ALL WAS SAID AND
DONE...HAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE MN
PORTION OF THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...HELD THE EXPANSION TO COUNTIES
WITHIN OUR WIND FAVORED REGIONS OF WRN/SRN MN WHERE HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
ONCE AGAIN...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERED AROUND FIRE
WEATHER/RED FLAG CONDITIONS. DID EXPAND THE RED FLAG ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.
AT 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB 980 MB SFC LOW SW OF
HUDSON BAY WAS JUST CLEARING THE ALBERT LEA/EAU CLAIRE AREAS. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H7 TROUGH. FARTHER WEST...SHORT
WAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL
BC WILL DROP SE ON NW FLOW INTO MN TONIGHT.
FIRST...THOSE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE H7 TROUGH...THOUGH FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HI-RES MODELS WITH
THESE SHOWERS BEING LARGELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z AS SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HELP SPELL THE DEMISE OF THESE
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE CLOUDS TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING LIKE
24 HOURS AGO...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH FULL
SUNSHINE FOR ALL UNTIL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF BC.
YESTERDAY...WE FOUND OURSELVES SQUARELY IN A WARM ADVECTIVE
PATTERN...WHICH LIMITED MIXING OF BOTH WINDS/DEWPOINTS. TODAY...WE
ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND THOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL LARGELY BE DONE AFTER THIS MORNING...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN
ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE TO MIXING IN ITS WAKE. OUR AIR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE FOUND UP IN NE MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN
YESTERDAY...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS. AS A
RESULT...BLENDED RAP DEWPOINTS /WHICH AGGRESSIVELY MIXES THEM
DOWNWARD TODAY/ INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST TO GET DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH
WHAT IS A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SNOWPACK. FOR HIGHS...WITH H85 TEMPS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY...WENT WITH HIGHS UP IN A SIMILAR AREA
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...OR ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THE 20 TO 25 DEG DROP IN DEWPS
ACTUALLY RESULTS IN HUMIDITIES BEING LOWER TODAY...WITH THE CURRENT
GRIDS DROPPING HUMIDITIES DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH WINDS...FAVORED THEM TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE /IN THIS CASE THE NAM AND GFSLAMP/...AS MIXING IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH OUR FULL POTENTIAL ON
WIND SPEEDS...WHICH IS RIGHT UP AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED.
TONIGHT...WHAT WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE BC WAVE. WHAT IS MUCH
LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. SREF
PROBS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE AT A MEAGER 40% /AS OPPOSED TO
60%-80% FOR WHATS MOVING THROUGH NOW/. BIG PROBLEM FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...VERY
DRY AIR BELOW 10K FT. WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER...BROUGHT POPS DOWN
INTO THE 30S AND CONFINED CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE SREF
SPITS OUT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP IT HAS. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES/VIRGA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST:
-STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD RAIN SIGNAL ON SATURDAY
-VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN SUN-WED
THE WHOLE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
PERTURBATIONS FROM NORMAL ACROSS THE CONUS. UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE
IN MN/WI IN FAVOR OF WARMER SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS RUN 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. THE AMPLIFICATION THAT OCCURS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC IS IN THE FORM OF BUILDING
RIDGES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS ON SUNDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WITH DIFFUSE FORCING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. THE 600-700MB FGEN LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...A NICE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
ACROSS MN/WI WITH STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
EARLY IN MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN`T MOVE VERY FAST AND
HANGS JUST TO OUT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COLD RAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF YOU BUY THE 06Z NAM. BEST LI
NEAR AND MEAGER MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP INTO MN ON SATURDAY
SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME DECENT
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE SET UP.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE LOW IS EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TRACKS MO/IL AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD LEAVE US IN THE COLDER-DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND WE
WOULD MISS MOST OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S MON...TUE...AND
WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT
FALLEN APART DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
KMSP...WINDS ARE VEERING NORTHWEST AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND
INCREASING A BIT. THE INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH A DECREASE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL AN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS BCMG N
5-10 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET TODAY IS ACTUALLY HIGHER
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO FOR SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.
BEING IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING AND DRIER HUMIDITIES. YESTERDAY WE HAD HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO
BE MORE OR LESS 24%-30% WHERE WE HAD THE RFW. FOR TODAY...HUMIDITIES
ARE FORECAST TO GET SOLIDLY DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE MPX AREA. THE BIG LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MEETING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH. AGAIN THE MORE EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD
MAKE THAT EASIER TO ACHIEVE AS WELL. WHEN ALL WAS SAID AND
DONE...HAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE MN
PORTION OF THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...HELD THE EXPANSION TO COUNTIES
WITHIN OUR WIND FAVORED REGIONS OF WRN/SRN MN WHERE HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
333 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AIR DIVES
INTO THE REGION AND PRODUCES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE COLD
AIR MAY ALSO RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE
SPRINKLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE KINL AND KHIB AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front that is currently near a Springfield, IL to St. Louis to
Jefferson City line will continue to move southeast this evening.
The models show this front slowing down over the southern CWA
tonight. The RAP does show an increase in low level moisture
moisture convergence along and ahead of the front the next few hours
at the same time that the HRRR depicts scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern half of the CWA. Have
maintained chance pops for tonight. MOS lows tonight are in good
agreement and generally followed.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
(Friday - Saturday night)
Cold front is expected to be just south of CWA early Friday morning and
will become quasi-stationary by afternoon. Chance PoPs will be confined to
along/just north of aformentioned boundary for Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler on Friday by about 10 degrees for most locations behind the cold front.
Quasi-stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front Friday
night as lee-side cyclogenesis commences and mid/upper-level heights rise.
Expect Saturday to be mainly dry and kept dry forecast going as very strong
cap is forecast to exist according to NWP model soundings. In addition...
large-scale forcing for ascent looks fairly weak across the area indicating
cap will likely hold.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday night ahead of
approaching cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance as
CWA will remain in warm sector with increasing clouds and south winds
around 10 knots.
(Sunday - Sunday night)
An unsettled and wet period is forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as cold front
moves across the area. Negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject toward
the mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday evening with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected with cold frontal passage. Could also be some
strong thunderstorms through Sunday evening with ~30kts 0-6km shear and
modest instability though higher severe weather threat should exist over
the lower Mississippi Valley where much greater instability will reside.
Temperatures on Sunday look to be quite difficult as degree of cloudiness
and frontal passage timing are a bit uncertain. Leaned warmer than guidance
a couple of degrees for now based on current projections of fropa as most
of CWA would be ahead of front through early afternoon at least.
(Monday - Thursday)
Light rain may linger across portions of the area on Monday as secondary
shortwave trough moves southeastward. Temperatures with clouds and rain
chances along with strong CAA at low levels will yield a cold and raw
early/mid April day. Forecast highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50s far south
still look on track.
Two cold nights with near freezing low temperatures appear possible Monday
night as well as Tuesday night...especially for northern areas. If lows
do dip into the upper 20s...frost/freeze headlines may become necessary
as vegetation begins to grow/bloom...especially over the southern CWA.
Remainder of extended looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to
near normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front has moved through Quincy and will soon move through
Columbia. These sites will stay dry. Farther south, expect that
the front will move through the St. Louis TAF sites about the same
time that scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop
along it between 21-00Z. Have left it out of KSTL and KSUS, and
left VCSH in the KCPS TAF. Expect VFR conditions through the
period as the lower atmoshere is very dry. Any thunderstorms will
be capable of producing gusty winds. Gusty southwest winds ahead
of the front will veer north and then decrease has high pressure
moves in from the north, and becomes light and variable overnight.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect a cold front to move across the TAF
site around 22Z causing the west winds to shift northwesterly.
Then expect winds to decrease and gradually veer easterly
overnight. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the front, but think this development will be south of KSTL.
Britt
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 49 70 52 79 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 41 68 48 76 / 10 0 10 10
Columbia 45 69 51 79 / 10 5 10 10
Jefferson City 46 69 53 79 / 20 20 10 10
Salem 50 67 50 74 / 30 30 10 10
Farmington 51 68 54 75 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
105 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN SD ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO AND OUT OF NRN NEB THIS MORNING. AS DEPICTED BY THE
HRRR...LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN MT WILL DROP THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER RAP MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WASHINGTON STATE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS K INDICES WILL RISE TO 25 OT 30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB SHOWN IN
MOST MODELS...THE NAM WAS THE WETTEST SOLN...POPS ARE LIMITED TO 15
TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOCUS PRIMARILY ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION.
FRIDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FORCES WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BACK ATOP
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S BY
MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS...ANY RANGE FIRE START WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BURN OUT
OF CONTROL. DEBATED ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FIRE ZONES FOR FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED NOT TO.
THE REASONING FOR NOT ISSUING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
TWO-FOLD. FIRST...DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA...AND FOR THAT
MATTER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT WIND SPEED OF LESS THAN 25 MPH
DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHTER WIND SEEM REASONABLE AS THE CROSS
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT /WESTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA/ IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS NOT READILY AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN...THIS IS DESPITE DEEP MIXING. TWO...THE MODELS TAP
INTO MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM
RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FORECAST
AREA WIDE. IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WARMER AND DRIER...WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS...RFW/S WOULD BE NEEDED. IF THESE FIRE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED...ZONES 210 AND 204 WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE A WARNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFF THE HIGHS PLAINS AND SLOWLY WORK EAST
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CWA
CONTINUES TO FALL BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY...THUS A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL AFTERNOON. NOTE HOWEVER THAT NEGATIVE LI/S AND WEAK
CAPE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES MAY GO HIGHER. THE MODELS REALLY RAMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. ATTM...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON
A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING IN WELL
DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND. RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO FALL OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY IS MESSY...WITH
SOME OF THE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THUS WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND AND NOT GET TOO
CUTE TRYING TO DEFINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
FALL. TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM CANADA.
THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT THOUGH AS BUILDING HEIGHTS SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA TO FOLLOW. HIGHS SHOULD
WARM TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BEYOND LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LOW AS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LATE IN THE WORKWEEK HOWEVER...SIGNS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY FAVORS MODERATE QPF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT TAF SITES WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED...THUS NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS...IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY...A POOL OF DRY SFC AIR ACROSS ERN MT/WRN SD WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 20F IS PROGGED BY THE RAP TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT. WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT JUST
5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE TWO FIRES WERE OR ARE UNDERWAY. RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH BUT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ/MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN SD ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO AND OUT OF NRN NEB THIS MORNING. AS DEPICTED BY THE
HRRR...LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN MT WILL DROP THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER RAP MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WASHINGTON STATE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS K INDICES WILL RISE TO 25 OT 30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB SHOWN IN
MOST MODELS...THE NAM WAS THE WETTEST SOLN...POPS ARE LIMITED TO 15
TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOCUS PRIMARILY ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION.
FRIDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FORCES WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BACK ATOP
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S BY
MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS...ANY RANGE FIRE START WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BURN OUT
OF CONTROL. DEBATED ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FIRE ZONES FOR FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED NOT TO.
THE REASONING FOR NOT ISSUING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
TWO-FOLD. FIRST...DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA...AND FOR THAT
MATTER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT WIND SPEED OF LESS THAN 25 MPH
DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHTER WIND SEEM REASONABLE AS THE CROSS
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT /WESTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA/ IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS NOT READILY AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN...THIS IS DESPITE DEEP MIXING. TWO...THE MODELS TAP
INTO MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM
RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FORECAST
AREA WIDE. IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WARMER AND DRIER...WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS...RFW/S WOULD BE NEEDED. IF THESE FIRE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED...ZONES 210 AND 204 WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE A WARNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFF THE HIGHS PLAINS AND SLOWLY WORK EAST
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CWA
CONTINUES TO FALL BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY...THUS A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL AFTERNOON. NOTE HOWEVER THAT NEGATIVE LI/S AND WEAK
CAPE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES MAY GO HIGHER. THE MODELS REALLY RAMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. ATTM...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON
A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING IN WELL
DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND. RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO FALL OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY IS MESSY...WITH
SOME OF THE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THUS WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND AND NOT GET TOO
CUTE TRYING TO DEFINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
FALL. TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM CANADA.
THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT THOUGH AS BUILDING HEIGHTS SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA TO FOLLOW. HIGHS SHOULD
WARM TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BEYOND LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LOW AS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LATE IN THE WORKWEEK HOWEVER...SIGNS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY FAVORS MODERATE QPF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/SHRA ACROSS NRN NEB MOVES E-SE THIS
MORNING AND EXITS THE FCST AREA.
A SECOND DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVES INTO WRN NEB
THIS EVENING. STORM ACTIVIY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED
OVER NCNTL NEB AFTER 06Z. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THESE STORMS EXITING
THE FCST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE ARE GETTING AN EXCELLENT SIGNAL
FROM THE RAP MODEL WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 AND HIGHWAY 83 AT 04Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY...A POOL OF DRY SFC AIR ACROSS ERN MT/WRN SD WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 20F IS PROGGED BY THE RAP TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT. WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT JUST
5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE TWO FIRES WERE OR ARE UNDERWAY. RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH BUT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN SD ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO AND OUT OF NRN NEB THIS MORNING. AS DEPICTED BY THE
HRRR...LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN MT WILL DROP THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER RAP MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WASHINGTON STATE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS K INDICES WILL RISE TO 25 OT 30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB SHOWN IN
MOST MODELS...THE NAM WAS THE WETTEST SOLN...POPS ARE LIMITED TO 15
TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOCUS PRIMARILY ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION.
FRIDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FORCES WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BACK ATOP
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S BY
MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS...ANY RANGE FIRE START WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BURN OUT
OF CONTROL. DEBATED ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FIRE ZONES FOR FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED NOT TO.
THE REASONING FOR NOT ISSUING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
TWO-FOLD. FIRST...DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA...AND FOR THAT
MATTER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT WIND SPEED OF LESS THAN 25 MPH
DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHTER WIND SEEM REASONABLE AS THE CROSS
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT /WESTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA/ IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS NOT READILY AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN...THIS IS DESPITE DEEP MIXING. TWO...THE MODELS TAP
INTO MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM
RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FORECAST
AREA WIDE. IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WARMER AND DRIER...WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS...RFW/S WOULD BE NEEDED. IF THESE FIRE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED...ZONES 210 AND 204 WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE A WARNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFF THE HIGHS PLAINS AND SLOWLY WORK EAST
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CWA
CONTINUES TO FALL BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY...THUS A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL AFTERNOON. NOTE HOWEVER THAT NEGATIVE LI/S AND WEAK
CAPE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES MAY GO HIGHER. THE MODELS REALLY RAMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. ATTM...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON
A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING IN WELL
DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND. RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO FALL OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY IS MESSY...WITH
SOME OF THE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THUS WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND AND NOT GET TOO
CUTE TRYING TO DEFINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
FALL. TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM CANADA.
THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT THOUGH AS BUILDING HEIGHTS SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA TO FOLLOW. HIGHS SHOULD
WARM TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BEYOND LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LOW AS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LATE IN THE WORKWEEK HOWEVER...SIGNS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY FAVORS MODERATE QPF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THEREFORE THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN AT ANY ONE SITE IS LOW. MIDDLE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY 5SM OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.
WIND IS THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
THE AREA...WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT AND THE SPEED WILL INCREASE
SUDDENLY TO 20-25G30-38KT AND DECREASE AFTER 1 TO 2 HOURS TO
13-18G21-25KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY...A POOL OF DRY SFC AIR ACROSS ERN MT/WRN SD WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 20F IS PROGGED BY THE RAP TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT. WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT JUST
5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE TWO FIRES WERE OR ARE UNDERWAY. RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH BUT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
628 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING JUST A BRIEF SHOT OF
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAINFREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR... THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
359 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS COMBINING WITH RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT STRONG MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
YIELD WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEASTERN LAKESHORE OF LAKE ERIE
WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE ICE-COVERED LAKE WATERS.
EXPECT THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE A COLD FRONT TAKES
AIM ON THE REGION AND BRINGS A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAINFREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR... THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
252 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONS
WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...FAIR AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IN
A LAYER CENTERED ALONG 800 MB WAS TRIPPING OFF A FEW 6000 FT
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE FULLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSOLVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE PRE-DAWN AND
DAYBREAK HOURS...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS...AND 100 METER WINDS PER LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW SSW FLOW AT 20 KT SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SFC.
THIS WILL OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT GOOD TEMPERATURE
DROPS EXPECTED STILL THE SAME UNDER A CLEAR DOME...WITH MINIMUMS
SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES...COOLEST INLAND AND
MILDEST BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SHUNT A COLD FRONT AND IT WILL STALL ALONG THE VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST WITH A TRUE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY...PURE
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ON
SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE LATER WILL KEEP MODIFIED
MARINE ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT ON SUNDAY FOR A SUNNY AND MILD DAY. BOTH PROGRESS EASTWARD
ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MODELS HINTING AT JUST ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MORE PRECIPITOUSLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT ONLY
DOES SW FLOW INCREASE BUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT SHOULD COUPLE WITH THE CONTINUED
MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE PVA. BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING
IN SOON THEREAFTER. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT CENTER INDUCES A WAVE
OFF THE COAST. IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND TO BRING ANOTHER
BATCH OF RAIN BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT THE 20/SLIGHT FOR NOW
AS IN PREV FCST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY. COOLER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE
SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS
INLAND AND 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE COASTAL TERMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. A
LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT
FOG FORMATION...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS ATTM. VFR
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...VERY NEARLY A BERMUDA HIGH SUMMER REGIME
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST EAST OF 70W BUT REMAINS EXTENDED WSW
INTO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SURFACE...AND WITH WARMER
WATERS WELL OFFSHORE...THIS IS WHERE HIGHER WINDS WILL RESIDE. SW
10-15KT NEAR SHORE BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT FARTHER EAST AND MAINLY
BEYOND 10NM. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. SEAS HEIGHTS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER
PORTION AND THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF SE WAVE 2 FT EVERY
8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. WATER TEMPS
NEAR-SHORE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAND PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
THE COAST AND WINDS ARE EXPECT BLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 10
KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
COAST ON SATURDAY AND WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE...NOT SO MUCH IN ITS BERMUDA POSITION BUT
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS
QUITE MINIMAL. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE FLOW SOME AND BRING A SMALL VEER AND ADD A FEW KNOTS
OF SPEED. THIS SHOULD ADD ABOUT A FOOT TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAINLY AWAY FROM SHORE. ON MONDAY HOWEVER THIS RAMP UP WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED AND CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. TUESDAY FROPA BRINGS SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE BUT
ADVISORY LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL FORM A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENED LOCALLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
OVERALL FOREACST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR TWEAKS TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY SOUTHWEST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES NORTH
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH TOWARD THE SD BORDER. FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CWA
SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED/CANCELLED. RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WERE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AND
CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY. HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED
TO OVER 30 PERCENT FAR SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT IS MARGINAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. WILL
NEED ANOTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE HOUR FOR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ONE SHOWER
AROUND 4 PM CDT PRODUCED A 77 MPH GUST AT HETTINGER AND 72 MPH
GUST NEAR BOWMAN...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH NORTHERN TONGUE OF
1000+ J/KG AREA OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE WHICH DECREASED RAPIDLY
AFTERWARD...SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
INCLUDING SOME 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST ND. OTHERWISE...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY THROUGH MOST OF CWA WITH SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
KMOT AND KJMS EXPERIENCING STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
120 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SATURDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WILL LOWER POPS SOME DESPITE
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS ONLY LIGHT ECHOES
ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER IL AND WS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LOW AND WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...VIRGA OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO JUST BELOW VALUES
INDICATED ON THE HRRR MODEL. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT JUST SLIGHTLY SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW RATHER WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED
FROM GRB TO MCI. RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
GIVEN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING FROM CENTRAL IL. WARMING SHOULD SHOULD BE RAPID. WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. DO NOT SEE MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE WILL LOWER POP FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SPRING TYPE WEATHER AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THERE IS
HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATES AND CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MONDAY
MORNING CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE MEAN TIME...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THIS WILL KEEP A WARM SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY
MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LOSE THE SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...I WILL BE LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
ONE REASON BEING IS THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT CUTS OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TONIGHT AND I THINK THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
RAIN. EXPECTING SKIES TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAY WIND UP LAYING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD HELP TO KEEP THE AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY. A SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL TAKE THE AREA OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY.
SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TRACK AS POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT AREA
COULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT WELL INTO MONDAY.
I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION OF THUNDER AND
WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH ON MONDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS
AROUND AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE GFS
MODEL TRIES TO HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT...SO BACKED DOWN ON THE POPS TO 20% AND
DECREASED THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP MIXING OCCURRING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS CROSSING LAKE
MICHIGAN AT 17Z. WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 33 TO 38 KNOT RANGE WILL BE
COMMON. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. SINCE THE
LOW LEVELS ARE SO DRY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MVFR CEILINGS
WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THEN GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN WARM ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY ON
LAKE ERIE. EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THE
WAVES WILL NOT MAKE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER...THE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL. BECAUSE OF
THE ICE ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL ONLY HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UP TO GENEVA ON THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START AT
NOON AND THEN END AFTER DARK. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
LAKE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THEY MIX DOWN...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COLD ADVECTION. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE LAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1252 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SATURDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WILL LOWER POPS SOME DESPITE
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS ONLY LIGHT ECHOES
ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER IL AND WS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LOW AND WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...VIRGA OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO JUST BELOW VALUES
INDICATED ON THE HRRR MODEL. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT JUST SLIGHTLY SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW RATHER WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED
FROM GRB TO MCI. RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
GIVEN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING FROM CENTRAL IL. WARMING SHOULD SHOULD BE RAPID. WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. DO NOT SEE MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE WILL LOWER POP FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SPRING TYPE WEATHER AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THERE IS
HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATES AND CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MONDAY
MORNING CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE MEAN TIME...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THIS WILL KEEP A WARM SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY
MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LOSE THE SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...I WILL BE LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
ONE REASON BEING IS THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT CUTS OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TONIGHT AND I THINK THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
RAIN. EXPECTING SKIES TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAY WIND UP LAYING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD HELP TO KEEP THE AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY. A SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL TAKE THE AREA OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY.
SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TRACK AS POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT AREA
COULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT WELL INTO MONDAY.
I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION OF THUNDER AND
WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH ON MONDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS
AROUND AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE GFS
MODEL TRIES TO HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT...SO BACKED DOWN ON THE POPS TO 20% AND
DECREASED THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND
THICKEN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR UNTIL
THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY...MAINLY OVER NW OH WHERE THE WINDS AT 2000
FEET ARE NEAR 45 KNOTS...ELSEWHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
ONLY LAST 2 TO 4 HOURS AND IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO 5 MILES AND THE CEILING
TO 3000 FEET. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT. AT THIS
TIME EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT EVEN WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN WARM ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY ON
LAKE ERIE. EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THE
WAVES WILL NOT MAKE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER...THE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL. BECAUSE OF
THE ICE ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL ONLY HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UP TO GENEVA ON THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START AT
NOON AND THEN END AFTER DARK. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
LAKE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THEY MIX DOWN...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COLD ADVECTION. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE LAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
223 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
IT IS MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WITH SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY RUNNING IN A 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL SEE THESE WINDS EVENTUALLY COME
DOWN TO 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ANOTHER
DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...AND THE SOUTH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THEY ARE TODAY. WE`LL REPEAT FRIDAY`S WEATHER ON SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES. SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP NORTH (ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON)...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY MORNING AND THEN OFF THE COAST
AND THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR
TUESDAY...THEN A WARMUP WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 42
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY WEAKENS. WINDS WILL
START TO COME BACK TO SCEC CRITERIA ON SUNDAY AGAIN AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NEW 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE FRONT A BIT PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WINDY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 925
AND 850 MB 12Z ANALYSIS REVEALS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET JUST NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. ACROSS OUR AREA LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL MAX OUT AROUND 30 KTS. THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AN LIFR DECK BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ IFR DECK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING AT
POSSIBLE LIFR. WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FULLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT LIFR STRATUS DECK FORMATION. IFR/ MVFR CIGS
LOOK LIKELY FOR TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 81 65 80 66 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 80 63 79 67 / 0 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 76 67 75 69 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 925
AND 850 MB 12Z ANALYSIS REVEALS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET JUST NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. ACROSS OUR AREA LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL MAX OUT AROUND 30 KTS. THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AN LIFR DECK BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ IFR DECK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING AT
POSSIBLE LIFR. WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FULLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT LIFR STRATUS DECK FORMATION. IFR/ MVFR CIGS
LOOK LIKELY FOR TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. UPDATE THE WIND GRIDS
SEVERAL KNOTS...AND THAT IS GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 45) SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH FOR LATE THIS MORNING
AND ON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TOO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS BUILDING TONIGHT...SO EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS MOSTLY UNTOUCHED. UNDER JUST
A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND IN THE MID 70S AT THE COAST. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
START THE DAY WITH VFR CIGS AND WINDS BECOMING QUITE GUSTY MAINLY
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS BRING IN SOME TYPE OF MVFR DECK FOR AREA
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 07-08Z FRI MORNING. NAM SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SOME CASES. GFS LIKES MVFR CIGS
FOR NOW SO WILL STICK WITH THAT TREND IN THE EXTENDED PART OF TAF.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH FORECAST AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS SHEAR OUT THE LOW AND BY SUNDAY MORNING HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER SE TX ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY.
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE THE WIND AND
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLE IN FORECASTING
NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREED WITH THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLOW INCREASE IN THE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SHORTWAVE WAS SHOWN
TO BE MORE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FITS
NICELY WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ERODING THE CAP OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES MORE THAN OVER THE SOUTH. TWEAKED THE CURRENT FORECAST SO
THAT THERE WERE ISOLATED POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY
MORNING. FELT THAT SCATTERED POPS WERE GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO LIVINGSTON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR KCLL AND
KLFK FORECAST CAPE VALUES 2400 TO 3000 AND HELICITY VALUES FROM
300 TO 375. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM APPROACHES WITH THE AREA NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH BUT THERE IS BETTER VORTICITY
ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. CAUTION
FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE
SEAS. THE 00Z THUR GFS AND WED 12Z ECMWF ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. GFS
IS A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z THUR ECMWF. FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z WED
ECMWF. REGARDLESS EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 80 65 80 66 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 80 63 80 67 / 0 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 75 67 76 69 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
936 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND. A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT FRIDAY...
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST TO NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE BUT FADING UPON ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR SEEN IN THE SFC- 7H
LAYER OFF THE RNK EVENING RAOB. ACTUAL FRONT REMAINS BACK ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER AND WILL ONLY DRIFT SE REACHING THE CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP ISOLATED SHRA GOING ESPCLY ALONG THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW A WHILE LONGER ESPCLY NE SECTIONS BEFORE THINGS
DRY OUT OVERNIGHT PER LASTEST HRRR SOLUTION. HOWEVER IMPULSE NOW
TRACKING ACROSS TN/KY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED AS IT SCOOTS INTO SRN/CENTRAL N CAROLINA LATE. THUS MAY
LEAVE IN SOME LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS CENTRAL AND SW A WHILE
LONGER WHILE LOWERING NW WHERE APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LESS BEHIND THE INITAL BAND. ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY FOG OVER
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH WHERE SOME RAIN DID OCCUR WHILE BUMPING UP
CLOUD COVER ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUDS WITH MOST ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE CYCLONE IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX. MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS SHALLOW AND FIGHTING DRY AIR BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING AHEAD AND ALONG
IT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AS SUPPORTED BY NAM...GFS
AND RNK WRFARW FOR TONIGHT. THE ECMWF HOLD MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST. ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED POPS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE WASHOUT OR DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
BELIEVE THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH QPF/POPS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST. KEPT FORECAST DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM AND
ECMWF. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA PER DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEEL ALMOST
SUMMERLIKE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MONDAY MAY FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME IF THE WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN ITS APPROACH. CURRENT FCST IS FOR INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MONDAY WHICH WOULD SHAVE OFF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM WHAT
COULD BE AN EQUALLY WARM DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY MONDAY. GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE
FLOWING READILY NORTHWARD RESULTING IN RISING DEWPOINTS AND PROVIDING
FUEL FOR BOTH FRONTAL AND PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WETTING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WET DAY ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WILL BRING COOL DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF FROSTY MORNINGS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS
TO MODIFY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT FRIDAY...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SE WVA TAF SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING UPON ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR. HOWEVER ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE EITHER A SHORT PREVAILING OR BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW
END VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND A VCTS MENTION AT KBLF PER UPSTREAM
LIGHTNING. THINK MUCH OF THIS COVERAGE SHOULD EITHER BE TO THE
EAST OR HAVE FADED BY 02Z/10 PM WHEN MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
GIVEN BREAKS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW FAR EAST TO BRING LOWER
CIGS AND ISOLATED SHRA SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF KBCB/KROA WITH MAINLY A
PERIOD OF BKN/OVC 4-6K FT CLOUD BASES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. APPEARS
ONLY MID DECK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE WILL STAY WITH
CONTINUED VFR.
MODELS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT AS FAR EAST AS KBCB GIVEN RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT KBLF. SINCE APPEARS AT LEAST
THE SE WVA SITES WILL SEE -SHRA WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LATE
NIGHT/DAWN PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBLF/KLWB BUT WONT GO AS LOW AS THE
NAM SOLUTION OF BRINGING IN LIFR CIGS LATE.
EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS OR VSBYS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE
FRONT NEARBY...EXPECT HEATING TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD
WITH PERHAPS ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA AROUND ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS QUITE IFFY LEFT OUT MENTION FOR NOW
AND STAYED WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AS WINDS TURN BACK SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10 KTS.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY AT THIS POINT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO
KEEP MVFR CIGS AROUND ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1020 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
HELPING TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN
RAPIDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BECAUSE OF THE RAIN OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE READINGS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
ANTICIPATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD
THEN TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TIMING RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES...A LLJ UPWARDS OF 50 KTS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY GOOD WITHIN THE
LLJ...ADVECTING PWATS GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE AN AREA RAIN DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT. A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME RAIN CAN SNEAK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ONCE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RAIN
SHOWERS EXIT. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
NOSE OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED LLJ WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF WISCONSIN ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ADD A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY HOW PRECIP
WILL EVOLVE TOMORROW...AS A RESULT OF INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. LEANING
TOWARD AN AREA OF RAIN FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 6.5
C/KM...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH AT SPOTS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AN ISSUANCE OF AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A
QUARTER TO HALF OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MUCH LESS FARTHER NW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVG. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS A SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND
DYNAMICS RAMP UP DUE TO THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF
GRB CWA. COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
WILL PULL OUT OF EASTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...ONLY EXPECTING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST PLACES...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...IN THE EVENT THE SNOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN FROM WEDS NGT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. DO NOT
HAVE THUNDER IN THE 06Z TAFS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MERRILL TO MARINETTE...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE
PCPN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING SOME HEAVY
PCPN OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL
LET THE HYDRO FOCAL POINT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SITUATION
TONIGHT...AND ASSESS WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ESF FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500MB RAP HEIGHTS SHOWS
DEEP TROUGH MARCHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH UPSTREAM
RIDGING EXTENDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WEST
COAST. IN THE PAST 24 HOURS THIS RIDGE HAS BROKEN
DOWN...INDICATING A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE DAYS TO
COME. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST ARE SKIRTING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA WESTWARD TO NORTHWEST
MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. ITS A WARM...BREEZY AFTERNOON AS
READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S...BRUSHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN / NORTHERN IA.
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TAP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE MILD
AIRMASS...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50.
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV
ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE GREATEST FORCING EXISTS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOOK AT THE HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTS LIGHT ACTIVITY ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FEEL THAT A
LOT OF THE FORCING/LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATION
INITIALLY...LIMITING QPF. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS PASSAGE DURING
THE NIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY TSTORM POTENTIAL LOCALLY...WITH
INSTABILITY WANING AND MAINLY LIMITED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
I-94.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN...THOUGH ITS AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP TOMORROW...AND SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON FOR MOST. HIGHS MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MANY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE LONG TERM...BUT THE BIG PICTURE
IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...YET MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MAINLY STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE
GFS/NAM/GEM CAMP A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHILE THE
09.12Z ECMWF HAS BETTER SATURATION WHICH PAINTS LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. PUSHED HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF...MAINLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. 09.12Z GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF
THE AREA...BUT MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER
WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF AND THE NAM TO SOME DEGREE HOLD THE COLD FRONT
BACK THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ON THE
BOUNDARY. AS THIS NORTHERN / INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT...A SECONDARY SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTING
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WAVE EJECTS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA ON
THE COLDER...NORTHWEST FRINGE. THIS TREND SEEMS TO HAVE CONTINUED
IN THE 09.12Z GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A
CHARLES CITY IOWA TO LA CROSSE TO NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE.
SOME REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /0.75 TO 1.5 IN/ ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND TRIBUTARIES.
TEMPERATURE WISE...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TAD WARMER...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND THEN A FEW DEGREES LESS ON SATURDAY.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE...FALLING TO AROUND -10C
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS ARE MID TO
UPPER 50S/MID 30S...SO GET EXCITED FOR ANOTHER STRETCH OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS MN AND WILL CROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IT WAS
WEDNESDAY. OTHER CONCERN IS SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE PASSING
FRONT. RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS...BUT NOT MUCH MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND. MAINTAINED THE VCSH IN THE TAFS...BUT NO MVFR RESTRICTION
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SEVERAL GRASS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED OVER A PART OF WESTERN WI IN THE
PAST 3-5 HOURS. ONE LARGE FIRE OVER NORTH END OF FORT MCCOY CAN BE
EASILY SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FIRE ALSO APPARENT
NEAR FOUR CORNERS WITH SUBTLE CLUES ON BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE.
ANOTHER FIRE REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT NEAR NORWALK. WITH
SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...AND HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CREWS TO GET AHEAD OF THE FIRES.
MEANWHILE...RED FLAG WARNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. ANY
RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AGAIN BUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER
SO FIRE RISK PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS HIGH...BUT STILL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ZT
LONG TERM......ZT
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
308 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE A
WARM FRONT STRETCHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO NEAR ROCHELLE AND
EAST INTO CHICAGO. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE THIS MORNING...THOUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT
OUTRUNS THE MEAGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...MID 50 DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE ACROSS FAR DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MID TO
UPPER 70S RESULTING IN MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED AS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. THE CAPPING
DOES ERODE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER NORTH...AND CANNOT RULE OUT OUTFLOWS
FROM WISCONSIN SINKING SOUTH AND KICKING OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE THE
FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OF TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE
COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES OR SO OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BROAD
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WELL AS MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI/IOWA. EXPECT THIS AREA
TO BECOME THE MAIN SHOW WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE AND
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POSSIBLY EVEN CUTTING OFF ACCESS TO
THE SOME OF THE ENERGY TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA WHICH WOULD THEN
RESULT IN A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WOULD EVENTUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST TO OR NEAR THE CWA BUT WOULD LIKELY BE IN A DECAYING
PHASE AS IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING OVERHEAD IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
RECOVER SUNDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DEVELOPING AS COUPLED JET DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL PUSH PWATS UP TO AROUND AN INCH AND
A HALF. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
SHOULD OFFSET THIS WITH SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
RE-INTENSIFYING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER WINDS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN TRAINING OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DEEP MOIST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
RAINFALL WILL BE EFFICIENT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A STRIPE
OF 3 TO IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION...MOST LIKELY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN AND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK //ESF// WILL BE RE-ISSUED IN THE
MEANTIME...THOUGH A FLOOD WATCH MAY WELL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.
THERE WILL BE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES DEPENDING
ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PROGRESSES WHICH CAN BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS
COOL AIR FROM THE LAKE. LIKELY THERE WILL BE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST SOMEWHERE WITH 70S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
40S/50S ON THE COOL SIDE. PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ADD ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WEAKER SYNOPTIC WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -12C MONDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING...TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW FALLING INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH DURING THE DAY AT LEAST WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 40S SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MELT ANY PRECIP
BEFORE OR AS IT HITS THE SURFACE. BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE
SNOW. WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARMER AIR STARTING TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 10 KT THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT BY
LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 25KT+ DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN
EASING OFF AROUND SUNSET.
* CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AT 06 UTC WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO IOWA LATER IN THE DAY... WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY VIA THESE BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND HELP FUEL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS TO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY BRUSH... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT FEEL ANY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE ORD/MDW TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS UNTIL 00-01 UTC SUNDAY.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING SATURDAY... GUSTING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CHANCE OF AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE.
MONDAY...MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO
SUNDAY...JUST PRIOR TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING
ACROSS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COMPLEX WIND FORECAST ACROSS
THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THERE WILL BE LIKELY BE
LARGE VARIATIONS IN SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTIONS
OF THE LAKE. AS IT APPEARS NOW...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT EARLY SUNDAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY...AND EVEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE EVOLVING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST LOW...THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIAN
NEAR SHORES...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOP DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE AS THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE MAY BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT
FOR A PERIOD EARLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP AND INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF GALES TO 40 KT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE LAKE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SATURDAY TO
4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM SATURDAY TO
10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday
A windy and very warm day is in store across central Illinois
today. An old frontal boundary currently draped across central
Missouri into the Ohio River Valley will lift rapidly northward
this morning, bringing increasing southerly winds and low-level
moisture. Impressive dewpoint gradient currently evident across
the region, with middle 30s observed north of the boundary across
central Illinois rising to the lower to middle 50s south of the
front across southern Missouri into western Kentucky. Thanks to
a tightening pressure gradient, strong southerly winds will
transport this moisture northward into central Illinois this
afternoon, pushing dewpoints into the middle to upper 50s.
Forecast soundings and BUFKIT data suggest wind gusts of 30 to
35mph later today. With partly sunny skies and strong southerly
flow, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than
yesterday, with most locations topping out in the middle to upper
70s.
Two upper air features will play a major role in the weather
across the Midwest over the next 48 hours. The first is a cut-off
low currently spinning over southern California, and the second is
a northern stream wave dropping southeastward toward the northern
Rockies. As the cut-off low opens up and is ejected eastward,
surface cyclogenesis will take place over the Oklahoma panhandle
later today into tonight. Increasing LLJ ahead of the approaching
low will allow convection to blossom within the strongest
instability axis across Kansas into central/northern Iowa late
this afternoon/evening. While decent CAPE values of around
1000J/kg will develop further east across central Illinois today,
forecast soundings show a strong cap at around 750mb. Due to the
capped airmass and lack of strong forcing, will go with a dry
forecast across the board through this afternoon. As surface low
and its associated frontal boundary slowly edge eastward,
showers/storms will begin to develop across the western KILX CWA
tonight. Models have trended slower with the eastward spread of
the precip, so will confine POPs to locations along/west of the
I-55 corridor. System makes only slow progress eastward on Sunday,
with NAM/GFS/ECMWF showing little or no precip across the far
E/SE. Have made a few adjustments to POPs in order to account for
the slowing trend, with areas along/south of I-70 remaining dry
throughout the day Sunday. Further west, will go with categorical
POPs in the Illinois River Valley in closer proximity to strongest
forcing. Will be another very warm day, with highs ranging from
the rain-cooled upper 60s west of the Illinois River to the upper
70s far SE.
Best rain chances arrive Sunday night as initial upper wave pushes
cold front into the area. With strong convergence along the
surface front, ample support aloft, and precipitable water values
climbing to around 1.50, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
a good bet. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely as well. Cold
front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, resulting in windy
and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will only be in
the 40s across much of the area, with early morning highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 across the Wabash River Valley dropping
into the 40s as the day progresses. In addition, all models
indicate lingering showers well behind the boundary as northern
stream upper wave arrives. Big question will be whether or not any
moisture can linger long enough to change to snow Monday night as
850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range and surface temps drop
into the upper 20s/lower 30s. At this point, the NAM is the only
model that is showing snow across central Illinois, as it develops
a secondary low along the departing cold front. GFS/ECMWF/GEM do
not develop this feature and thus bring the precip to an end
before the airmass cools sufficiently for snow. As a result, will
only carry a slight chance for rain showers during the evening
across the E/SE CWA, followed by cold and dry weather overnight.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
Mainly quiet weather can be expected in the extended, with a
gradual warm-up. Rising upper heights will allow chilly temps in
the 40s on Tuesday to recover into the 60s by Thursday and Friday.
Models are having trouble resolving the next potential system to
impact the region by the end of next week, with the GFS being much
more aggressive with precip Thursday night into Friday. Due to
discrepancies this far out, will only mention a slight chance for
showers on Friday until better consensus is reached.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the central and eastern IL TAF
sites for the next 24 hours. It appears that the low level
moisture pushing slowly northward through extreme southern IL is
not expected to be associated with MVFR ceilings. Forecast
soundings and cloud base height forecasts from the HRRR indicate
that the VFR ceilings are expected when the low level moisture
lifts into central IL around and shortly after daybreak.
Still expecting very windy conditions from about mid-morning
into early evening as the pressure gradient increases and plenty
of mixing occurs in the lower atmosphere. BUFKIT momentum transfer
is still indicating the potential for wind gusts to reach 30-35
knots Saturday afternoon.
With the main surface boundary expected to stay along NW and
extreme northern IL, the precipitation will stay to the north of
the TAF sites in central IL through 06Z Sunday. The 00Z model runs
of the NAM and GFS indicate that the rain may even hold off until
later Sunday afternoon.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
107 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
338 PM CDT
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTER A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH SOME AREAS REGISTERING
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE READING OF THE SEASON...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
WEEKEND ON TAP. ON THE DOCKET ARE WINDY WARMTH AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
SOME CONCERN FOR MIXING WITH SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND THEN WASH OUT. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. AFTER LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER
AND MID 40S...THIS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY...A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SET UP ON THE NOSE OF A ROBUST 850 MB
LOW LEVEL JET...WITH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING FORMATION OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NW IL/FAR SOUTHERN WI AND MOVING EAST.
QUESTION IS WILL IT BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BORDER. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST CWA TO CHANCE
AND SOME LIKELIES IN THE FAR NW AROUND MID-DAY. SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY
AFFECT THE CWA...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN THANKS TO
INCREASING PWATS AND ALSO ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...IT APPEARS THE BEST
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT IN
SOUTHERN WI...BUT THERE IS CONCERN THAT OUTFLOW FROM MORNING/MID-DAY
ACTIVITY COULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IF CAPPING IS
WEAK ENOUGH. TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR AIR MASS TOMORROW COMING
FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN MID AND UPPER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN LOW-MID 50S. THINK THAT 60 DEG DEWPOINTS
SURGING IN ON SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM ARE TOO HIGH AND AFTERNOON
TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN SHOWN BY 12Z NAM. THE
OTHER CON IS THAT UPPER SUPPORT DURING THE DAY DOESNT APPEAR ALL
THAT ROBUST OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA. HAVE NONETHELESS BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS DOWN TO A LINE ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF CHICAGO TO
VYS AND LIKELIES IN FAR NW. SPC HAS INCLUDED AREA FROM CHICAGO TO LA
SALLE COUNTY IN DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK AND LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SEVERE MODES WITH ANY STORMS THAT
FORM INTO THE EVENING IN THE PRESENCE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
HAVE LEFT GOING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 70S
LARGELY UNCHANGED...THOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS IN IMPACTS FROM
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT FOR
PART OF DAY INTO FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
OTHER CONCERN TOMORROW IS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO
35 MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS HIGHEST/CAT POPS INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CWA WHERE MULTIPLE WAVES WILL BE RIDING IN ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THERE WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WOULD BE DURING EVENING HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
SLOWLY STABILIZES. THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY ALOFT PRESENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION HOWEVER. IT WILL BE A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN TIMING AND TRACK OF STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ELEVATED WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...KEEPING STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO NORTH AND NORTHWEST CWA ESPECIALLY. AFTER A
VERY DRY PAST MONTH IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...INGREDIENTS COMING
TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOW LYING FLOODING AND ALSO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL WITH AN ESF THAT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH 70S SOUTH AND QUITE POSSIBLY 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST IL. CONCERNED FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING 60...STRONG TO SEVERE
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN WARM SECTOR.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT COLD ENOUGH AIR ALOFT MAY ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND COULD SUPPORT A MIX WITH SN IN THE NW CWA TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY AND QUITE THE RUDE
AWAKENING WITH HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LOW AND MID 40S!
THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICK IS THE DEEP LOW TO DEPART THE AREA...WITH
ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE SLOWEST AND FAVORING CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY
POPS. MONDAY MORNING THERMAL PROFILES COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW MIXING
IN FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST. DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES LATER MONDAY
NIGHT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH WINDS LIKELY TURNING ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS AGAIN ONLY LOW-MID 40S. AFTER A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE REST OF NEXT WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON WHETHER A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STAYED
VERY CLOSE TO BLENDED INITIALIZATION GIVEN ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 10 KT THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT BY
LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 25KT+ DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN
EASING OFF AROUND SUNSET.
* CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL AT 06 UTC WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO IOWA LATER IN THE DAY... WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY VIA THESE BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND HELP FUEL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS TO JUST HOW FAR SOUTH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY BRUSH... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT FEEL ANY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE ORD/MDW TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS UNTIL 00-01 UTC SUNDAY.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING SATURDAY... GUSTING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CHANCE OF AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE.
MONDAY...MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
221 PM CDT
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO
SUNDAY...JUST PRIOR TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING
ACROSS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COMPLEX WIND FORECAST ACROSS
THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THERE WILL BE LIKELY BE
LARGE VARIATIONS IN SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTIONS
OF THE LAKE. AS IT APPEARS NOW...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT EARLY SUNDAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY...AND EVEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE EVOLVING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
LATER SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST LOW...THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIAN
NEAR SHORES...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT DEVELOP DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE AS THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE MAY BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT
FOR A PERIOD EARLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO SET UP AND INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF GALES TO 40 KT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE LAKE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SATURDAY TO
4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM SATURDAY TO
10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 844 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Made some minor tweaks to the forecast and grids, mainly related
to temperature. The latest surface analysis indicated a weak
surface ridge extending from southern IN back across central IL to
northern MO. Dew points were still very low with upper 20s to 30s
in central IL and lower 40s in the southeast. These will be
nudging up a bit as the night progresses, particularly in
southeast IL.
Most of the upstream cloud cover is scattered to broken high
clouds with a few mid clouds, so the insulating effects will be
minimal. Thus, nudged overnight lows down a bit in central IL with
the all of the dry air and very light wind anticipated.
Windy conditions are in store for the region Saturday, starting
from mid-morning and continuing into early evening. Sustained wind
of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph from the south will be
common during the day tomorrow.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the central and eastern IL TAF
sites for the next 24 hours. It appears that the low level
moisture pushing slowly northward through extreme southern IL is
not expected to be associated with MVFR ceilings. Forecast
soundings and cloud base height forecasts from the HRRR indicate
that the VFR ceilings are expected when the low level moisture
lifts into central IL around and shortly after daybreak.
Still expecting very windy conditions from about mid-morning
into early evening as the pressure gradient increases and plenty
of mixing occurs in the lower atmosphere. BUFKIT momentum transfer
is still indicating the potential for wind gusts to reach 30-35
knots Saturday afternoon.
With the main surface boundary expected to stay along NW and
extreme northern IL, the precipitation will stay to the north of
the TAF sites in central IL through 06Z Sunday. The 00Z model runs
of the NAM and GFS indicate that the rain may even hold off until
later Sunday afternoon.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday
Slow moving storm system to bring "warm" air north into our area
for the next couple of days followed by the threat for heavy
rainfall over parts of central Illinois, especially late Sunday
afternoon through early Monday.
The main forecast concerns this period will be with temperatures
and timing of precip east into our area starting Saturday evening
far northwest and over the remainder of the area by Sunday night.
Models in decent agreement with respect to frontal position this
weekend but are having their usual problems with moisture advection
north into the Midwest. Both the NAM-WRF and operational GFS were
bringing in low 60 degree dew points north into our area tomorrow
afternoon and evening ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary
approaching from the northwest. Looking at upstream surface obs over
parts of Arkansas and southern Missouri, it appears the dew points
were forecast about 5 to 7 degrees too high for early this afternoon
compared to reality. So once again, will side more with the ARW
solution as it seems to mix out the lower levels of the atmosphere
more efficiently with afternoon dew points forecast mostly in the
mid 50s. In addition, forecast soundings suggest a much better
cumulus field across our area with the returning moisture as well
but that won`t hold temps back as 850 temps suggest afternoon
readings in the 75 to 80 degree range accompanied by south winds
gusting as high as 35 mph at times in the afternoon.
Aforementioned front will be settling southeast into central
Wisconsin southwest through west central Iowa by evening. Surface
base capes off the ARW soundings ranging from 1200-1500 j/kg
across far west central Illinois by late afternoon. With the main
forcing mechanism still well west and northwest of our area, feel
the better chances for scattered thunderstorms will be over eastern
Iowa northeast through northwest Illinois Saturday afternoon and
early evening. What those storms do with respect to an associated
outflow boundary and eventual propagation is still uncertain for
our northwest counties but it still warrants low chance POPs over
our far northwest areas by late afternoon with the better chances
spreading ever so slowly east and southeast during the late evening
hours of Saturday. Radar simulations off the SPC and HRW-WRF NMM
delay any significant convection until the 01z-04z time frame well
to our northwest as soundings suggest the cap will be slow to
break late in the afternoon. Even the NAM-WRF solution indicating
the better K indices remaining well to our northwest until late
Saturday night, and even that is confined to our far northwest
counties as the better 925-850 mb jet and favorable theta-e advection
during the evening remains well to our west. With the slower model
trends will keep the better chances for rain confined to our
northwest Saturday night into Sunday with the widespread rains
associated with the stronger upper wave and surface front will be
late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
Latest ECMWF has continued to trend slower with the overall speed
of the large 500 mb inching its way across the central U.S. into
early next week, with a secondary piece of energy near the base
of the trof seen on the latest run, which the 12z NAM-WRF was
hinting at as well. This has resulted in a much slower ending of
precip and actually shows a second wave of precip pushing northeast
ahead of the southern stream shortwave into an air mass supportive
of at least a rain snow mix by the end of the day Monday into
Monday night. Not going to jump on that bandwagon quite yet but it
will need to be watched.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
500 mb trof axis to shift to our east Tuesday afternoon with the
upper flow quickly transitioning back to zonal by mid-week which
should make for a quick recovery in temperatures. After some very
chilly readings Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with frost/freezing
temperatures possible, we should see readings return close to normal
by Thursday and Friday when afternoon temperatures climb back into
the 60s. If the ECMWF solution is correct, we may need to bump up
POPs Monday night across the east with most of the precip just off
to our east Tuesday morning. After that, not very confident on our
next chance for precip with the model blend plastering precip all
over the place later in the week. Next significant wave moving well
to our north late in the week, but with all the deeper moisture
shunted away with our early week trof, not much support for any
meaningful rain chances in the extended.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
250 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
PATCHY VALLEY STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS THAT HAVE
DECOUPLED. THE NORMALLY COLDEST LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN THE FORECAST...SO MIN T WAS LOWERED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
SHORT UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR MOSAIC...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE WAY TO GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. COOLEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING. FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES MANAGE
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN...WAITING
FOR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD BE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD POP UP SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE VICINITY. HRRR CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL POP UP SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SLIGHT POP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST TEMP TRENDS. ALSO WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
IN OUR COOLEST AREAS/LOCATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH TN THIS EVENING
WILL CLIP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AND DIEING OFF. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THUS FAR THROUGH THE EVENING. IT CURRENTLY HINTS AT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD...IN LINE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
ITS RETREAT NORTHWARD. CONSIDERING THIS AND WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BROUGHT HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH
OBS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD ATTM...BUT CURRENTLY RUNNING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SUDDEN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SEEING SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SO ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST TRENDS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION OUT TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN KY THAT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO GENERATE ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW AM NOT BUYING INTO NEW CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH CURRENT FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. BUT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST IS MAKING A BEE LINE STRAIGHT EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. WILL BE LOOKING OVER TRENDS A BIT MORE
CAREFULLY. SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE IN THE MAKING WITHIN
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FELT SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL EXISTS. OF THE TAF SITES...LOZ HAD THE MOST RAINFALL SO
HAVE OPTED FOR MVFR FOG THERE. OTHERWISE...VIS UNDER 6SM IS NOT
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS ANY ISOLATED SHRA OR
TSRA BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KT SAT AND POSSIBLY REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS INTO THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1200 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
SHORT UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR MOSAIC...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE WAY TO GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. COOLEST VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING. FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES MANAGE
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1112 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN...WAITING
FOR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD BE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLD POP UP SHOWER JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE VICINITY. HRRR CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL POP UP SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SLIGHT POP...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BASED ON
LATEST TEMP TRENDS. ALSO WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
IN OUR COOLEST AREAS/LOCATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH TN THIS EVENING
WILL CLIP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE KY/TN STATE LINE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AND DIEING OFF. HRRR HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THUS FAR THROUGH THE EVENING. IT CURRENTLY HINTS AT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD...IN LINE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
ITS RETREAT NORTHWARD. CONSIDERING THIS AND WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WENT AHEAD AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE BROUGHT HOURLY GRIDS IN LINE WITH
OBS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD ATTM...BUT CURRENTLY RUNNING
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SUDDEN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SEEING SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SO ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST TRENDS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION OUT TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN KY THAT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO GENERATE ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW AM NOT BUYING INTO NEW CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH CURRENT FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. BUT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST IS MAKING A BEE LINE STRAIGHT EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. WILL BE LOOKING OVER TRENDS A BIT MORE
CAREFULLY. SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE IN THE MAKING WITHIN
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 827 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FELT SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL EXISTS. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS LINE OF THOUGHT.
THEREFORE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT
SEVERAL OF OUR TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KTS SATURDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
516 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH
DAKOTA IN ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE SD WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IA.
FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO NE SD BORDERING ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDING THROUGH NRN OTARIO.
SHRA FROM CNTRL MN AND NW WI INTO SW MN AND NRN IA WAS SUPPORTED BY
STRONG 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE WAS
ALSO ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA FROM ERN SD
INTO NW IA.
TODAY...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE ENE INTO UPPER MI AS THE BAND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THROUGH AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 JET LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSEST TO THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT...WITH
OVERALL QPF VALUES IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH RANGE. FCST MUCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA OVER
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN FCST QUESTIONS WILL BE PCPN TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS WARMER AIR IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER MOVES IN ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING. THE PCPN INTENSITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT
A COUPLE INCHES OF WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS INTO
THE MID 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE AIR AND GROUND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PCPN AS THE SNOW
CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
TONIGHT...THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING AS THE
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOP ERLY FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE MODEL SPREAD IS ROUGHLY
10F FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH OUR OFFICIAL
FCST BOUNCING FROM ALL ALONG THE SPECTRUM
THE WEATHER MAP AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE W COAST...AND THE SE U.S. IN THE MIDDLE A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH WY AND
CO. THE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED OVER HUDSON BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DIG ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ARE NOW
IN THE MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OK THROUGH NE AND LOWER MI AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO LOWER MI AND FAR S QUEBEC BY 12Z
MONDAY...AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER FAR E CANADA MONDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE LOW. NW WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TOP OUT 20 TO
NEAR 30KTS...STRONGEST ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
THE COLDEST DAY /TUESDAY/ WILL SEE TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET TO THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN AT THE SFC...WITH NW FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWMELT AND RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SLOWING DOWN THE WHOLE
PROCESS. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO FALL BELOW -8C OVER THE W HALF BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...CHANGING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP TO ALL SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MORE JUMBLED...WITH THE A
GENERAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE S EXTENDED
OF THE LOW FOR TH-FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
THIS LONGER TERM PERIOD. THE MID WEEK SFC HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY
YET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP FROM THE S PLAINS THROUGH NM
AND WI AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T HAVE IT
CROSSING UPPER MI UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT JUMP
INTO THE WEEDS OF THE EXTENDED FCST AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLDS WL BE THICKENING EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THRU SUNRISE WITH WEAK
RDG OF HI PRES AND LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE. BUT AS A LO PRES TAKING
SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST THIS
AFTN...WDSPRD PCPN WL DVLP W-E OVER UPR MI WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MSTR AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHERE THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF FOR
MAINLY SN AND THE LLVL ESE WIND WL UPSLOPE AT CMX AND SAW...PLAN ON
LIFR CONDITIONS FM LATE THIS MRNG THRU MUCH OF THE AFTN. BUT EVEN AT
IWD WHERE THE PCPN WL BE LIGHTER AND MIXED WITH RA...IFR CIGS ARE
FCST. ALTHOUGH THE STEADY PCPN WL END BY 00Z SUN... LINGERING MOIST
E WINDS/SHALLOW COLD AIR WL RESULT IN LINGERING LO CLDS/FOG/SOME
-FZDZ...ESPECIALLY AT CMX AND SAW WHERE THE FLOW WL UPSLOPE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND A LOW INTO IA. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN
HIGH RPESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW PRES SYSTE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
FORTUNATELY...LIMITED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HAS KEPT THE SNOWMELT SIMILAR TO NORMAL SPRING
CONDITIONS. WOULD EXPECT A SLOW STEADY RISE IN RIVER LEVELS
TODAY...WITHOUT ANY LARGER RIVERS RISING ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME.
THE PROBLEM AREAS SO FAR HAVE BEEN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN DELTA
COUNTY WHERE HAVE BEEN NEAR OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THERE
HAS SEEN EVIDENCE OF MINOR ICE JAMES ON SOME HYDROGRAPHS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO...MOST NOTABLY ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
(RKLM4) AND THE FORD RIVER NEAR HYDE (FRDM4). THE RKLM4 ICE JAM SEEMS
TO HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM OR BROKEN UP...BUT DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THE
STATE OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM GIVEN A LACK OF REPORTS/RIVER ACCESS.
THE FRDM4 ICE JAM LOOKS TO HAVE RELAXED FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY
HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR THAT RIVER TO WARN OF FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS AND ICE IS LIKELY STILL IN THE SYSTEM. AM UNSURE OF
IMPACTS/EXTENT OF THIS ICE JAM AS RIVER BANKS/STRUCTURES ARE FAIRLY
HIGH ABOVE THE RIVER PER DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS. THERE WERE
ALSO REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER AREA CREEKS/STREAMS THAT ARE
NOT GAUGED...BUT NO IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THIS ICE BREAK UP DOES LEAD
TO SOME CONCERN FOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR RIVERS THAT EMPTY INTO THE MAINLY FROZEN GREAT
LAKES.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW /MELTING AS IT FALLS/
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AMOUNTS TO
BE IN THE 0.30-0.50 INCH RANGE...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING WITH THIS RAIN...THE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. EXPECT COLDER AIR TO SURGE IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OR EVEN
END THE SNOW MELT...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. SINCE 4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
STILL REMAINS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SCNTL SD WILL KICK EAST THIS MORNING AND SEND
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE AIR COMING IN IS STILL
MILD AND RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING CALGARY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST THIS AFTN AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS OF ERN COLO AND EAST TOWARD
KOMA.
THE RESULT IS A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN NEB. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SOLID CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEVELOPS THIS
AFTN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
BY 00Z TONIGHT K INDICES ARE AROUND 20C OR LESS IN THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTING TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTN ARE NIL. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE ECM...SREF AND GFS. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
PILING UP MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY 06Z AND IT IS BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z THAT TSTMS COULD BEGIN APPROACHING THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NEB PANHANDLE. BY THIS TIME THE MOISTURE POOL IS ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH INTERSTATE 80 AND AREAS SOUTH. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD APPEAR SMALL AND IN FACT WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT FOLLOWS A MULTIMODEL APPROACH FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD BE DROPPING
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH A RAIN CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IN SHERIDAN COUNTY AROUND 09Z WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND 06Z NAM. THE POP AND QPF FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GEM...NAM...GFS
AND ECM. THE SREF WAS THE WETTEST SOLN AND DISCARDED FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS POOLS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE ARCTIC AIR COOLS THE LOWER LAYERS CLOSE TO
SATURATION. FARTHER SOUTH...THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB
FOR RAIN. EVEN THE NEXT WETTEST MODEL...THE NAM...WAITS FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT BEFORE SATURATING BELOW 700 MB. ALAS...THE BEST
FORECAST WILL LIKELY COME FRONT THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED
THE BEST THIS WINTER AND SPRING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS...HEADED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. STRONG
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND OR
WET SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALSO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS SUNDAY...BUT DON/T
FEEL COMFORTABLE RISING ANY FURTHER DUE TO THE EXPECTED OVERALL
WEAKENING/DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION BAND. BY SUNDAY
EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST
PART...AS DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS VIA A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AS H85
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS PLUS. SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. CHILLY
CONDITIONS THEN FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A NICE RECOVERY...WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY RETURNING BACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
LATER IN THE WEEK...QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN DECENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GEM WOULD SUPPORT THE GFS/GEFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ FOR
NOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ALL MODELS BRING IN MORE COLD AIR...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL END ON CHILLY
NOTE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ABOVE VISUAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. IN THE SOUTHWEST...WIND WILL START OUT 160-200 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND SWING AROUND TO 240-280 AT 12-14KT BY 09Z. THEN...
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
ARE VERY LIGHT...JUST 20 TO 25 KT AT H850 IN ALL MODELS. SO FIRE
DANGER IS ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
STILL LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...TSTM CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PCPN TYPE SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
ONE JET STREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING TOWARD NRN BAJA CA
AND ANOTHER WAS PUNCHING EWD FROM ERN MT. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF
AROUND 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER ERN WA AND SRN BC WITH ANOTHER
SIMILAR AREA OF FALLS OVER CA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WORKING
ITS WAY NWD...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 11 C AS FAR NORTH AS
NORMAN OK.
SURFACE CHART AT 08Z SHOWED ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SRN SD TO
THE NORTHWEST OF KONL AND ANOTHER IN ERN CO. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WERE MOVING NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NRN LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN IA TODAY.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS INDICATED SOME ECHOES ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES BUT AMOUNTS SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
TODAY...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST...BUT DID BUMP
HIGHS UP JUST A BIT SRN ZONES BASED ON LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. WE
STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND INTO SWRN IA. RECENT RUNS OF 13 KM RAP AND SOME OF THE
OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT. ML CAPE VALUES REACH
AS HIGH AS AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS EVENING OVER SERN NE
AND SWRN IA.
PCPN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE SOME
ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS IS INDICATED. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BANDING. MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SERN ZONES BY MID
MORNING AS COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALSO...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN NERN NE...PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND
PROBABLY CHANCE TO SNOW BASED ON NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLOWLY FALLING ALL DAY SUNDAY. SNOW COULD SPREAD TOWARD
OMAHA AND LINCOLN BY LATE AFTN. FOR NOW...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
MOST AREA WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH.
PCPN WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO MAINLY LOWER AND MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
STILL LOOK FOR GENERALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. BUT PCPN
CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF NERN NE
THEN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.
MODEL ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS LATE NEXT WEEK
SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS TO ABOUT AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE BY
THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AT KLNK AND
KOMA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS NORTH FROM KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PASS KOFK BY 18Z...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH THERE WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 12KT. THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND LIMP THROUGH KLNK AND KOMA AREAS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AFTER 21Z...BUT IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
452 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SPRING SO FAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY. THE RAIN MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ON TUESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG YET MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION. THIS FEATURE PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO EARLIER...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO WIN OUT.
11-3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG
SPREADING NORTH OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO CREEP NORTHWARD FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF CHAU/CATT/ALLEG COUNTIES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL RUN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING. THIS IS RADIATIONAL FOG AND DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO IT
WILL BURN OFF WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL FOG AREA WILL BE OVER AND JUST EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING...
MODESTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
LAKE ERIE ICE COVER AND MAY PRODUCE A PLUME OF FOG OVER THE LAKE. IF
THIS DEVELOPS...THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD BRING IT INTO THE ERIE
COUNTY SHORELINE AND EVENTUALLY THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE
LATER TODAY. THE AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY HOWEVER...DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
CIGS AND VSBY OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FOR
TODAY...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
OTHER THAN THE FOG...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC TODAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH CONTROL ACROSS OUR REGION TO
PROVIDE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A BATCH OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ENTER WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN THIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUD WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AS MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +7C ACROSS THE WEST AND +4C ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS OF 55 TO 60
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND KEEP
ALL THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD FAR INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE NYS THRUWAY LATE
IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
OUR REGION...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ENHANCED BY A 50+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ARE MAXIMIZED. SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 300-500J/KG...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING AN
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM.
THE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MANY AREAS FROM
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WESTWARD...WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING LATE. SOME AREAS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER MAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
8AM SUNDAY AIDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE SHOT OF
ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC AIR. AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING AN
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO ONTARIO WILL BE
FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHARPENING BAROCLINIC GRADIENT. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ASSOCIATED
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY STILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THE BULK
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE AREA WILL BE FIRMLY
PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WITH
850MB TEMPS SURGING TO +12C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MID 70S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ERIE AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINES WHERE THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30KTS BY THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THAT
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DOWNSLOPING COULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
THIS VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S...IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER OUTSIDE.
THIS WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A RESTRICTING
FACTOR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING PWATS ACROSS
WESTERN NY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE AN INCH LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
FEATURE STRONG WINDS MONDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SOLID ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RAINFALL AND THE CONSIDERABLE WARMING/THAWING BEFOREHAND ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL GENERATE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HYDROLOGICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
BELOW...BUT THAT`S NOT ALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ON
TUESDAY. READINGS WILL TUMBLE EVEN LOWER...INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH
UPPER TEENS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND START TO THE WEEK...MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS A
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC
AIR WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY THE NATION`S MID-SECTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH...EITHER WAY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL END UP UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AND THE 50S FRIDAY.
THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED WITH WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
MOVES EASTWARD...AN ISSUE STILL IN CONTENTION AMONG THE MODELS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG YET MOISTURE STARVED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ABOUT 10Z AND MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA JUST EXPECT
SOME PATCHY CIRRUS.
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE PA STATE LINE. THIS FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD
TOWARDS KBUF AND KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS
IS DRIER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE AT BEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE A
BRIEF TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT. IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP...IT MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY EXPECT VFR WITH PASSING THIN
CIRRUS. STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A
LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR LATE WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL IFR FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT
AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL
THE LAKESHORES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING
LATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS GROWING FOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE A SNOWPACK REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS STILL HAVE A SNOW PACK OF OVER A FOOT. WATER LEVELS
HAVE STEADILY RISEN WITH EVEN SOME OF THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS
IN OR APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
MELTING PROCESS AND CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.
ANY FLOODING ISSUES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ONLY MINOR AND CONFINED
TO THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
SUNDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE AND INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT.
BIGGER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POTENTIAL NOT ONLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...
BUT THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
BLACK RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY
FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH HAVE SOURCE REGIONS ON THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ006>008.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...TMA/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
357 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS THIS RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT THE RIDGE WILL PUSH GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH A SUBSEQUENT BACKING OF OUR LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AGAIN TODAY (DRY ADIABATIC UP THROUGH 6000 FEET)
WILL COMBINE WITH A LITTLE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST TO
DEVELOP A HEALTHIER CUMULUS FIELD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING 5-25 MILES INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS IS INTERESTING SINCE
THE HRRR EXPLICITLY MODELS CONVECTIVE CELLS UNLIKE THE GFS/NAM WHICH
BOTH PARAMETRIZE CONVECTION. VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE 750-900
MB LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE NET MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS... SO I
AM ONLY INCLUDING A TOKEN 5-10% POP BETWEEN I-95 AND THE COAST.
HIGHS 79-82 ARE EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE BEACHES TODAY.
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE PLUS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL PRODUCE
PATCHY FOG AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW STRATUS LATE. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY LATE
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST.
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON BUT SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS A DIGGING
MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY BUT VEERING AROUND TO S TO SW BY
LATE MONDAY AND INCREASING UP TO 15 MPH OR SO AT THE SFC AND UP TO
30 TO 40 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE MID LEVELS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATER ON MONDAY WHEN WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO GREATER GULF MOISTURE.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM CLOSER TO A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON LATE AFTN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT
OVERALL BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE MON AND MORE SO ON TUES AS
COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MAIN FORCING TO
COME IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
LARGER SCALE CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH SOME SHOWERS
FEEDING INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP
AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UP NEAR 60 OR ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUES AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S. DECENT
DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A STRONG LLJ...DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHWRS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL WAIT TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CWA.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA BY TUES NIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HINTING AT A WEDGE
SIGNATURE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAVE LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME PERIODS
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS IN STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT FOR WED THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS AND A LITTLE
ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 7000 FEET SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED MANY
HUNDREDS OF MILES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WEST FROM THIS HIGH LIES ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
BACKING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. OUTSIDE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S
SEABREEZE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
ONLY 2 FEET. THE SEABREEZE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 KNOTS NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
COAST AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT S-SE REMAINING 10-15 KTS OR BELOW KEEPING SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE AND BUILD
ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE MONDAY IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHES UP NEAR 25
KTS. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TUES WITH A
SLIGHT DROP AS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO EARLY
WED. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE
WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK. A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
N-NE WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
More warm and dry weather today, with a canopy of high clouds still
parading across the area ahead of Sunday`s system (currently
located over California). Critical fire weather concerns continue
primarily across Southeast New Mexico and its bordering Texas
counties today, with potentially widespread critical conditions on
Sunday. For more information, please see the fire weather
discussion below. Similar to yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for
most of the area. A sharpening lee surface trough this afternoon
will allow the dry line to mix to the eastern edges of the CWA,
roughly along a Snyder-Big Lake-Sanderson line. While convective
development is possible along and east of the dry line (where
better moisture resides), the cap remains strong with around
100-200 j/kg CIN and have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for these areas.
Models are also attempting to develop showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Mexico as a subtle
shortwave trough traverses Chihuahua. The NAM, GFS, and RUC all
develop QPF this afternoon and evening from Culberson County into
the Marfa Plateau as a result of this activity moving northeast.
Forecast soundings do indicate top down moistening across
southwest Texas, but still maintain rather large surface
temperature-dew point spreads (30-40 degrees). If anything
actually does make it into Texas (and confidence is not high that
it will), a very dry sub cloud layer makes virga with localized
gusty winds and occasional lightning seem the more likely outcome.
The more noticeable effect of the sharpening surface trough will be
an increase in surface winds today, with gusty southwest winds 15-25
MPH across lower elevations and higher speeds across higher terrain.
Expect windy conditions again Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses
the region, with height falls across the area producing slightly
cooler temperatures. As this trough swings across the area, it will send a
rather potent cold front through the area Sunday night. Expect the
front to push through the entire area by midday Monday.
A very tight pressure gradient (5 mb/50 miles) associated with
this front will produce possible wind advisory criteria (winds
25-35 MPH) behind the front mainly north of I-20. Given a
favorable northeast direction with these winds, a high wind
warning may also be needed for the Guadalupe Mountains (including
Guadalupe Pass). Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds
along and behind the front. Strongest winds look to materialize
between 10Z and 18Z on Monday morning. A secondary wave will dive south
Monday afternoon and, despite sufficient lift, the air over the
forecast area looks too moisture starved (PWATs around 0.3 in over
the northern Permian Basin) to support any of the precip models
are generating over the northern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures will also be much colder behind Sunday`s front with the
potential for a late season freeze on Tuesday morning in the
mountains and northern Permian Basin. Areas along and north of I-20
will need to continue to monitor the forecast for issuance of any
freeze watches or warnings. Shortwave ridging builds across Texas
and New Mexico by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm back to
near seasonal normals. The ECMWF and GFS are indicating a more
active pattern again heading into next weekend, but this far out
have different solutions. Kept the forecast dry into next weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting another day of very dry air over much of the region with
minimum RH below 15 percent west of a dryline. As a surface low
moves over the Panhandle today should reach or exceed 20ft winds of
20 mph across SE NM... Guadalupe Mtns... Van Horn region... portions
of the Upper Trans Pecos and NW Permian Basin. Will update the Red
Flag Warning to include all of these locations. A few thunderstorms
possible this afternoon/evening across the Marfa Plateau... these
could be dry storms. Very dry air will spread across all of the
region Sunday as a west wind sweeps across the area. Minimum RH 10
percent or less. As the pressure gradient tightens 20ft winds will
exceed 20 mph over much of the area. Will continue the Fire Weather
Watch Sunday for all of W TX and SE NM. A strong cold front will
blow through the area Sunday night ending fire weather concerns for
a few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 89 60 84 41 / 10 10 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 91 65 86 41 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 89 58 85 47 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 92 66 95 55 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 90 63 88 45 / 10 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 77 55 75 36 / 10 10 0 10
HOBBS NM 87 54 82 39 / 10 10 0 10
MARFA TX 81 48 81 38 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 90 65 86 42 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 90 64 85 42 / 10 10 0 0
WINK TX 91 60 88 46 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...
Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Reeves County and Upper
Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
72/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
148 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND. A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 855 PM EDT FRIDAY...
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST TO NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE BUT FADING UPON ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR SEEN IN THE SFC- 7H
LAYER OFF THE RNK EVENING RAOB. ACTUAL FRONT REMAINS BACK ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER AND WILL ONLY DRIFT SE REACHING THE CENTRAL CWA BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP ISOLATED SHRA GOING ESPCLY ALONG THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW A WHILE LONGER ESPCLY NE SECTIONS BEFORE THINGS
DRY OUT OVERNIGHT PER LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. HOWEVER IMPULSE NOW
TRACKING ACROSS TN/KY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED AS IT SCOOTS INTO SRN/CENTRAL N CAROLINA LATE. THUS MAY
LEAVE IN SOME LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS CENTRAL AND SW A WHILE
LONGER WHILE LOWERING NW WHERE APPEARS COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LESS BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND. ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY FOG OVER
THE FAR WEST AND NORTH WHERE SOME RAIN DID OCCUR WHILE BUMPING UP
CLOUD COVER ESPCLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUDS WITH MOST ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE CYCLONE IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BACK INTO THE ARKLATEX. MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS SHALLOW AND FIGHTING DRY AIR BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING AHEAD AND ALONG
IT. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AS SUPPORTED BY NAM...GFS
AND RNK WRFARW FOR TONIGHT. THE ECMWF HOLD MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST. ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED POPS TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE WASHOUT OR DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
BELIEVE THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH QPF/POPS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST. KEPT FORECAST DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM AND
ECMWF. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA PER DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEEL ALMOST
SUMMERLIKE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MONDAY MAY FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME IF THE WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN ITS APPROACH. CURRENT FCST IS FOR INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MONDAY WHICH WOULD SHAVE OFF ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM WHAT
COULD BE AN EQUALLY WARM DAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY MONDAY. GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE
FLOWING READILY NORTHWARD RESULTING IN RISING DEWPOINTS AND PROVIDING
FUEL FOR BOTH FRONTAL AND PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAY REACH OUR FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WETTING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WET DAY ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WILL BRING COOL DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF FROSTY MORNINGS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS
TO MODIFY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...ALL
VFR...MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AS A SHORT WAVE TRACK FROM
CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO SOUTH CAROLINA. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF BLF AND BCB.
MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE AT KLWB ABOUT FORMATION OF ANY DENSE FOG
ALONG THE GREENBRIER RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT AS FAR EAST AS KBCB GIVEN RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND A WESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT KBLF. SINCE APPEARS AT LEAST
THE SE WVA SITES WILL SEE -SHRA WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LATE
NIGHT/DAWN PERIOD OF MVFR AT KBLF.
EXPECT ANY LOW CIGS OR VSBYS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID MORNING PROVIDING
FOR OVERALL VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT
NEARBY...EXPECT HEATING TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD WITH
PERHAPS ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA AROUND ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FOR NOW SINCECOVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS TURN BACK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS AS THE
SURFACE FRONT RECEDES BACK TO THE NORTH.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY AT THIS POINT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO
KEEP MVFR CIGS AROUND ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
247 AM PDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system will bring scattered showers to the
Idaho Panhandle today and breezy north winds to portions of
central Washington this afternoon. Dry and relatively mild weather
is expected Sunday and Monday with the arrival of high pressure.
A cooler and showery weather regime is expected Tuesday through
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: A shortwave trough of lower pressure is pushing
more over the region tonight with a 500 mb cold pool of around -27
C positioning itself over the Panhandle. This cold pool will
destabilize the mid levels of the atmosphere and we will become
conditionally unstable by this afternoon. The best instability
will likely be over the ID Panhandle. The GFS model paints 200-250
J/KG of surface based CAPE across much of the Panhandle. The NAM
solution is not quite as unstable and much of the instability
more over the Central Panhandle and more stable over the Northern
Panhandle. The NAM is more stable across the Northern Panhandle as
it is more aggressive with the drier air pushing in from Canada.
The NAM may be a little too aggressive when looking at the RUC and
ECMWF dew point temp progs across this area for this afternoon. I
did favor the more unstable GFS solution and added isolated
thunderstorms to the forecast for portions of the ID Panhandle. I
think the best chances for thunderstorms this afternoon will be
over the Central Panhandle Mtns. I left any mention of
thunderstorms out of much of the Northern Panhandle as the NAM may
be correct in bringing in the drier air from the north through the
afternoon hours. Showers associated with this wave will be
limited mainly across the eastern third of the forecast area.
Pressure gradients will tighten substantially this afternoon with
pressure rises occurring in BC behind the trough. This will create
breezy winds down the Okanogan Valley and will bring a punch of
dry air that filters in across the western basin.
Sunday and Sunday night: High pressure will build into the region
and dry continental air from Canada will have spread across all
areas by this time. This combined with large scale subsidence
from the ridge will result in mostly sunny skies. Winds will also
begin to weak on Sunday. Temperatures for the weekend will be near
seasonal normals with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most
valley locations. /SVH
Monday: At this point it looks like Monday will feature the best
combination of dry weather, mild temperatures, and relatively
light winds for the next week. A high amplitude shortwave ridge
axis will translate across Washington on Monday. The GFS, NAM, and
ECMWF are in good agreement that the 500mb ridge will flatten
during the day Monday as a low pressure system moves toward the
coast of British Columbia. The incoming low will likely lead to
increasing high clouds and a transition from light east winds in
the morning to southerly winds in the afternoon. All-in-all,
Monday looks to be a good day for enjoying mild spring weather.
Tuesday through Friday: A cooler and increasingly showery weather
regime is expected Tuesday through next weekend. There is descent
agreement between the GFS, ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Mean that a
cool-open wave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
during the day Tuesday. This trough does not appear to have an
abundance of moisture associated with it, but cool air aloft will
likely set the stage for convective showers. Mid-level west or
northwesterly flow will favor showers over the Idaho Panhandle
especially during the hours of peak heating in the afternoon and
early evening. Shower activity may be isolated at best over the
Columbia Basin Tuesday. A low amplitude or "dirty ridge" is
advertised for Wednesday leading to low chances (20-30 percent) of
precipitation for most of north Idaho and eastern Washington. If
the models hold true, Thursday will be the wettest and possibly
breeziest day of the week. The models currently suggest good
frontal forcing on Thursday in conjunction with good upper level
jet support (left exit region of 300mb jet max). The 00z runs of
the GFS and ECMWF also suggest that a moist frontal system will
bring widespread rain and high elevation snow in the
Saturday/Sunday time-frame. /GKoch
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS...Drier air moving into the region tonight will result in
generally clear skies. On Saturday a short wave dropping out of
British Columbia will result in winds shifting to a northerly
direction. The atmosphere will also destabilize especially over
the Idaho Panhandle where scattered showers are expected to
develop. A few of these showers may develop over the Northeast
Washington mountains and may skirt the KGEG/KSFF/KPUW TAF sites
with KCOE most likely to be impacted. All CIGS should remain VFR
due to dry low level moisture. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 57 34 56 35 63 39 / 20 10 0 0 0 10
Coeur d`Alene 56 32 56 30 63 39 / 30 10 0 0 0 10
Pullman 56 35 56 33 64 41 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 62 37 60 34 69 43 / 10 20 0 0 0 0
Colville 62 30 62 28 67 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 55 32 56 28 62 37 / 50 10 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 54 32 54 30 62 38 / 60 30 0 0 0 10
Moses Lake 65 38 64 35 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Wenatchee 65 40 64 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
Omak 63 34 65 33 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SMALLER
AREA OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THE 12.05Z
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ABOUT THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THE ACTION
AROUND OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR AND THE
12.00Z HI-RES ARW IS TO MOVE THE ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT EAST AS
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING TOWARD
THESE MESO MODELS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AT LEAST AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES BY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AS THE REGION GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FOR A
WHILE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THROUGH WILL THEN
START TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF FORCING PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH
THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO THE WEAK FRONT THAT GETS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BY THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY. THE 12.00Z NAM SHOWS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE PRODUCING BETWEEN 2 AND 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE INTO AND OVER THIS FRONT. THE HI-RES ARW SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND
THUS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT STORMS AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER. APPEARS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS TO THE BE THE
STRONGEST OF ALL THE WAVES. IN ADDITION TO THE FORCING FROM THE
WAVE ITSELF...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME JET DYNAMICS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET COMING IN
WITH THE WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET AXIS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF 2 TO 6 UBAR/S OF
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE 295K SURFACE INTO AND OVER
THE FRONT. THIS PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW 75 TO 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FORCING STARTS TO MOVE PAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT COMES
IN AT THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE UP COMING WEEK. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ENERGY MOVING
ON TO THE SOUTHWEST CANADIAN SHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TUESDAY. THE
12.00Z ECMWF THEN TAKES THIS WAVE EAST IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THE
12.00Z GFS AND THE GEM SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GFS CLOSING THIS LOW OFF WHILE THE GEM KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN SYSTEM. ALL THE MODELS THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH IS
GOOD TIMING CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. FOR
NOW...WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS WHICH PRIMARILY
HAVE 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES AT NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR AROUND...EVEN DURING ALL OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGES...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR FOR
THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE 11-16Z PERIOD.
THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SOME THUNDER...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD FIRE NEAR LSE AROUND MID AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIENCE ONLY ALLOWS A VCSH RIGHT NOW.
A LOT OF CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND DIRECTION AS THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH...GOING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE MORNING...AND FINALLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH. SPEEDS
INCREASE TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM FRONT WHERE MAYBE SOME
GUSTS COULD OCCUR. THERE REMAINS CONCERN FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THIS MORNING BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
406 AM PDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.Synopsis...
A weak system will bring a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms over the southern Sierra this afternoon. High
pressure and well above normal temperatures dominate into early
next week, followed by a series of weak troughs that move through
northern California by the middle of next week.
&&
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Monday)...
A weak disturbance passing through Socal will bring a slight
chance of thunderstorms over Tuolumne and Alpine counties mainly
near the crest late this afternoon. HRRR actually keeps all of the
activity south and east of these areas with increasing northwest
mid-level flow. However...with instability nearby shown in
modified totals/totals will keep slight chances going.
Temperatures will be cooler Today with increased onshore flow and
lowered heights and did lower highs a few degrees. Valley highs
will be low 80`s north Redding-Red Bluff...low to upper 70`s south
Sacramento to Modesto and mid to upper 60`s delta. Wind gusts up
to 30 mph will be possible through the delta through the day.
Disturbance will move east into the great basin area Sunday with
ridge building east from the Pacific. Northern flow will briefly
develop in this pattern and north wind gusts up to 25 mph will be
possible over the western Sacramento valley from late morning
through the day. Otherwise dry and warm with temperatures warming
back into the low 80`s over most of the area.
Upper ridge builds over Norcal Monday and Tuesday with weak
disturbances brushing Shasta county. Expect only increased cloud
cover given the limited moisture and have went with a dry forecast
for these days. Temperatures will remain in the low 80`s.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Dry northwesterly flow aloft sets up over NorCal Wed/Thur on the
backside of an upper-low digging over the Rocky Mountain states.
The GFS is much more vigorous with the low than the EC, but
either way it will much to far to our east to do much other than
cool temps a bit and bring some dry north winds if the GFS
solution is correct. Model disparity is readily apparent in the
high temperature forecast for Wednesday in the Sac area, where
the raw GFS is > 10F cooler than the raw EC. Current forecast
splits the difference with model consensus.
A Pacific trough is progged to approach the far Northern CA
coastline by the weekend, though model confidence metrics show
little predictability in this feature. Have thus kept near climo
pops for now for areas north of I-80 (which translates to a
chance of showers for the mountains with little to no chance in
the Valley). -DVC
&&
.Aviation...
VFR next 24 hours for Interior NorCal TAF sites as an upper low
drifts by to the south with little impact on area weather. Few
isolated showers/thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon.
Generally light winds around 10 knots or less, except SW 15-25
knots in the Delta area, and up to 15 kts for airports in the
near vicinity including KSMF and KSAC. -DVC
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
957 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR VALLEY
COUNTY TOWARDS 6 PM. 12Z NAM DOES DEVELOP LOW/MID CLOUD IN MAGIC
VALLEY CONVERGENCE ZONE AROUND 9Z AND TAKES IT AS FAR WEST AS THE
GOODING/ELMORE COUNTY LINES. PLAN TO INCREASE POPS AND TREND A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST FOR THIS 6-12Z TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STILL ON TRACK FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK /BASE 10K FT MSL/ TO DEVELOP AROUND 20Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT W/NW
SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 25 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE HIGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER TODAY AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER SPEEDS TO
THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OPEN VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
SPLITS IDAHO AS IT TRACKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE MAGIC VALLEY THAT
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM SO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONLY
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL BE HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY UNDER THE NORTHERLY
FLOW THOUGH STILL HOLDING NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE QUICKLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ARE OUT OF PHASE BY FRIDAY. NOT A LOT OF RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE SMALLEST
CHANGES WHILE THE GFS HAS BIG CHANGES. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED BUT SINCE THE ECMWF DOES NOT CHANGE
AS MUCH AS THE GFS FROM RUN TO RUN WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ECMWF. WITH THE LATEST TREND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DAMPENING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR CHANCE POPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWEST
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A FLAT RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
FOR CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOWER
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Forecast generally looks good today and only needed to lower the
amount of cloud cover this morning. Partly to mostly cloudy skies
earlier this morning have become mostly sunny by late morning as
warm front lifted ne of central IL with strong to severe
thunderstorms with hail east of Rockford moving east at 45 mph
toward McHenry county IL. Partly to mostly sunny skies expected
this afternoon with clouds increasing this afternoon especially
over the IL river valley where mostly cloudy skies by sunset.
Showers and thunderstorms should stay north of central IL through
sunset and will keep a dry forecast. Warmer highs in the upper 70s
to near 80F still on track with strong south winds 15 to 25 mph
and gusts of 25 to 35 mph ahead of 1002 mb low pressure over
eastern NE and central KS that deepens to 996 mb by sunset.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Southerly winds will ramp up quickly this morning as mixing takes
place, with gusts of 25-30 knots likely by late morning,
continuing into the afternoon. The gusts should begin to drop off
early this evening, but sustained winds of 10-15 knots still
likely through the night. Will need to watch for potential for
LLWS, with some of the models hinting at some borderline LLWS
conditions by mid evening, but will hold off on including it for
now. Ceilings so far today have been VFR, but as low as around
4000 feet near KDEC. HRRR guidance continues to suggest a period
of around 3500 feet through late morning, before rising toward
early afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm trends are more uncertain, as the incoming
cold front slows a bit. Latest model guidance suggests the period
after 06Z is most likely to see anything, but the showers/storms
that will develop west of the Mississippi River this evening will
likely be breaking up as they approach central Illinois. Have
included some VCSH mention at KPIA/KBMI/KSPI for late in the TAF
period, but kept it dry further east.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday
A windy and very warm day is in store across central Illinois
today. An old frontal boundary currently draped across central
Missouri into the Ohio River Valley will lift rapidly northward
this morning, bringing increasing southerly winds and low-level
moisture. Impressive dew point gradient currently evident across
the region, with middle 30s observed north of the boundary across
central Illinois rising to the lower to middle 50s south of the
front across southern Missouri into western Kentucky. Thanks to
a tightening pressure gradient, strong southerly winds will
transport this moisture northward into central Illinois this
afternoon, pushing DEWPOINTS into the middle to upper 50s.
Forecast soundings and BUFKIT data suggest wind gusts of 30 to
35mph later today. With partly sunny skies and strong southerly
flow, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than
yesterday, with most locations topping out in the middle to upper
70s.
Two upper air features will play a major role in the weather
across the Midwest over the next 48 hours. The first is a cut-off
low currently spinning over southern California, and the second is
a northern stream wave dropping southeastward toward the northern
Rockies. As the cut-off low opens up and is ejected eastward,
surface cyclogenesis will take place over the Oklahoma panhandle
later today into tonight. Increasing LLJ ahead of the approaching
low will allow convection to blossom within the strongest
instability axis across Kansas into central/northern Iowa late
this afternoon/evening. While decent CAPE values of around
1000J/kg will develop further east across central Illinois today,
forecast soundings show a strong cap at around 750mb. Due to the
capped air mass and lack of strong forcing, will go with a dry
forecast across the board through this afternoon. As surface low
and its associated frontal boundary slowly edge eastward,
showers/storms will begin to develop across the western KILX CWA
tonight. Models have trended slower with the eastward spread of
the precip, so will confine PoPs to locations along/west of the
I-55 corridor. System makes only slow progress eastward on Sunday,
with NAM/GFS/ECMWF showing little or no precip across the far
E/SE. Have made a few adjustments to PoPs in order to account for
the slowing trend, with areas along/south of I-70 remaining dry
throughout the day Sunday. Further west, will go with categorical
PoPs in the Illinois River Valley in closer proximity to strongest
forcing. Will be another very warm day, with highs ranging from
the rain-cooled upper 60s west of the Illinois River to the upper
70s far SE.
Best rain chances arrive Sunday night as initial upper wave pushes
cold front into the area. With strong convergence along the
surface front, ample support aloft, and precipitable water values
climbing to around 1.50, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
a good bet. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely as well. Cold
front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, resulting in windy
and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will only be in
the 40s across much of the area, with early morning highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 across the Wabash River Valley dropping
into the 40s as the day progresses. In addition, all models
indicate lingering showers well behind the boundary as northern
stream upper wave arrives. Big question will be whether or not any
moisture can linger long enough to change to snow Monday night as
850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range and surface temps drop
into the upper 20s/lower 30s. At this point, the NAM is the only
model that is showing snow across central Illinois, as it develops
a secondary low along the departing cold front. GFS/ECMWF/GEM do
not develop this feature and thus bring the precip to an end
before the air mass cools sufficiently for snow. As a result, will
only carry a slight chance for rain showers during the evening
across the E/SE CWA, followed by cold and dry weather overnight.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
Mainly quiet weather can be expected in the extended, with a
gradual warm-up. Rising upper heights will allow chilly temps in
the 40s on Tuesday to recover into the 60s by Thursday and Friday.
Models are having trouble resolving the next potential system to
impact the region by the end of next week, with the GFS being much
more aggressive with precip Thursday night into Friday. Due to
discrepancies this far out, will only mention a slight chance for
showers on Friday until better consensus is reached.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
645 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE A
WARM FRONT STRETCHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO NEAR ROCHELLE AND
EAST INTO CHICAGO. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE THIS MORNING...THOUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT
OUTRUNS THE MEAGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...MID 50 DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE ACROSS FAR DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MID TO
UPPER 70S RESULTING IN MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED AS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. THE CAPPING
DOES ERODE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER NORTH...AND CANNOT RULE OUT OUTFLOWS
FROM WISCONSIN SINKING SOUTH AND KICKING OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE THE
FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OF TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE
COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES OR SO OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BROAD
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WELL AS MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI/IOWA. EXPECT THIS AREA
TO BECOME THE MAIN SHOW WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE AND
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POSSIBLY EVEN CUTTING OFF ACCESS TO
THE SOME OF THE ENERGY TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA WHICH WOULD THEN
RESULT IN A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WOULD EVENTUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST TO OR NEAR THE CWA BUT WOULD LIKELY BE IN A DECAYING
PHASE AS IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING OVERHEAD IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
RECOVER SUNDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DEVELOPING AS COUPLED JET DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL PUSH PWATS UP TO AROUND AN INCH AND
A HALF. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
SHOULD OFFSET THIS WITH SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
RE-INTENSIFYING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER WINDS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN TRAINING OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DEEP MOIST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
RAINFALL WILL BE EFFICIENT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A STRIPE
OF 3 TO IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION...MOST LIKELY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN AND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK //ESF// WILL BE RE-ISSUED IN THE
MEANTIME...THOUGH A FLOOD WATCH MAY WELL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.
THERE WILL BE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES DEPENDING
ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PROGRESSES WHICH CAN BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS
COOL AIR FROM THE LAKE. LIKELY THERE WILL BE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST SOMEWHERE WITH 70S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
40S/50S ON THE COOL SIDE. PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ADD ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WEAKER SYNOPTIC WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -12C MONDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING...TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW FALLING INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH DURING THE DAY AT LEAST WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 40S SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MELT ANY PRECIP
BEFORE OR AS IT HITS THE SURFACE. BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE
SNOW. WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARMER AIR STARTING TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 10 KT THIS MORNING AND TO 15-20 KT
BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 25KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
THEN EASING OFF AROUND SUNSET.
* CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
* MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING LATER SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN IL AT
11 UTC WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AS RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. AS THIS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO
DEEPER DRIER AIR AND AWAY FROM WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS
BACK TO THE WEST... EXPECT IT TO FALL APART.
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO IOWA LATER IN
THE DAY... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY VIA THESE BRISK SOUTH WINDS
AND HELP FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
BUT MOSTLY LIKELY STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF ORD/MDW THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
BETTER FORCING FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TOGETHER ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD SOMETIME FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT
STILL... BUT WINDOW OF BETTER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO IMPACT
ORD/MDW BETWEEN 04-08Z. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY... LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR... AND POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A PERIOD LATER.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTH WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BY LATE
MORNING TODAY... GUSTING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER - VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CDT
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN TO IMPACT LAKE MICHIGAN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
AND THE BEST INFORMATION WILL BE OBTAINED VIA GRAPHICS ON THE GREAT
LAKES WEB PORTAL RATHER THAN THE LEGACY GLF TEXT WHERE THE RICHNESS
OF ALL THE INFORMATION CAN MORE READILY BE DECIPHERED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL
SEPARATE SOUTH WINDS TO THE SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
CENTRAL AND NORTH. AS THE PLAINS LOW REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT
IT WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY... YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND REACH SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. GALE WIND THRESHOLDS MAY FIRST BE SURPASSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MOST INITIALLY
AND WHERE THERMAL INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH EARLY MONDAY... AND MAY BE ALSO EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE
NORTH THIRD OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... BUT THIS PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE LONG
LASTING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF INVERTED LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM SATURDAY TO
4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...10 AM SATURDAY TO
10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
630 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday
A windy and very warm day is in store across central Illinois
today. An old frontal boundary currently draped across central
Missouri into the Ohio River Valley will lift rapidly northward
this morning, bringing increasing southerly winds and low-level
moisture. Impressive dew point gradient currently evident across
the region, with middle 30s observed north of the boundary across
central Illinois rising to the lower to middle 50s south of the
front across southern Missouri into western Kentucky. Thanks to
a tightening pressure gradient, strong southerly winds will
transport this moisture northward into central Illinois this
afternoon, pushing DEWPOINTS into the middle to upper 50s.
Forecast soundings and BUFKIT data suggest wind gusts of 30 to
35mph later today. With partly sunny skies and strong southerly
flow, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than
yesterday, with most locations topping out in the middle to upper
70s.
Two upper air features will play a major role in the weather
across the Midwest over the next 48 hours. The first is a cut-off
low currently spinning over southern California, and the second is
a northern stream wave dropping southeastward toward the northern
Rockies. As the cut-off low opens up and is ejected eastward,
surface cyclogenesis will take place over the Oklahoma panhandle
later today into tonight. Increasing LLJ ahead of the approaching
low will allow convection to blossom within the strongest
instability axis across Kansas into central/northern Iowa late
this afternoon/evening. While decent CAPE values of around
1000J/kg will develop further east across central Illinois today,
forecast soundings show a strong cap at around 750mb. Due to the
capped air mass and lack of strong forcing, will go with a dry
forecast across the board through this afternoon. As surface low
and its associated frontal boundary slowly edge eastward,
showers/storms will begin to develop across the western KILX CWA
tonight. Models have trended slower with the eastward spread of
the precip, so will confine PoPs to locations along/west of the
I-55 corridor. System makes only slow progress eastward on Sunday,
with NAM/GFS/ECMWF showing little or no precip across the far
E/SE. Have made a few adjustments to PoPs in order to account for
the slowing trend, with areas along/south of I-70 remaining dry
throughout the day Sunday. Further west, will go with categorical
PoPs in the Illinois River Valley in closer proximity to strongest
forcing. Will be another very warm day, with highs ranging from
the rain-cooled upper 60s west of the Illinois River to the upper
70s far SE.
Best rain chances arrive Sunday night as initial upper wave pushes
cold front into the area. With strong convergence along the
surface front, ample support aloft, and precipitable water values
climbing to around 1.50, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
a good bet. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely as well. Cold
front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, resulting in windy
and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will only be in
the 40s across much of the area, with early morning highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 across the Wabash River Valley dropping
into the 40s as the day progresses. In addition, all models
indicate lingering showers well behind the boundary as northern
stream upper wave arrives. Big question will be whether or not any
moisture can linger long enough to change to snow Monday night as
850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range and surface temps drop
into the upper 20s/lower 30s. At this point, the NAM is the only
model that is showing snow across central Illinois, as it develops
a secondary low along the departing cold front. GFS/ECMWF/GEM do
not develop this feature and thus bring the precip to an end
before the air mass cools sufficiently for snow. As a result, will
only carry a slight chance for rain showers during the evening
across the E/SE CWA, followed by cold and dry weather overnight.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
Mainly quiet weather can be expected in the extended, with a
gradual warm-up. Rising upper heights will allow chilly temps in
the 40s on Tuesday to recover into the 60s by Thursday and Friday.
Models are having trouble resolving the next potential system to
impact the region by the end of next week, with the GFS being much
more aggressive with precip Thursday night into Friday. Due to
discrepancies this far out, will only mention a slight chance for
showers on Friday until better consensus is reached.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Southerly winds will ramp up quickly this morning as mixing takes
place, with gusts of 25-30 knots likely by late morning,
continuing into the afternoon. The gusts should begin to drop off
early this evening, but sustained winds of 10-15 knots still
likely through the night. Will need to watch for potential for
LLWS, with some of the models hinting at some borderline LLWS
conditions by mid evening, but will hold off on including it for
now. Ceilings so far today have been VFR, but as low as around
4000 feet near KDEC. HRRR guidance continues to suggest a period
of around 3500 feet through late morning, before rising toward
early afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm trends are more uncertain, as the incoming
cold front slows a bit. Latest model guidance suggests the period
after 06Z is most likely to see anything, but the showers/storms
that will develop west of the Mississippi River this evening will
likely be breaking up as they approach central Illinois. Have
included some VCSH mention at KPIA/KBMI/KSPI for late in the TAF
period, but kept it dry further east.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
822 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH
DAKOTA IN ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE SD WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IA.
FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO NE SD BORDERING ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDING THROUGH NRN OTARIO.
SHRA FROM CNTRL MN AND NW WI INTO SW MN AND NRN IA WAS SUPPORTED BY
STRONG 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE WAS
ALSO ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA FROM ERN SD
INTO NW IA.
TODAY...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE ENE INTO UPPER MI AS THE BAND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THROUGH AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 JET LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSEST TO THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT...WITH
OVERALL QPF VALUES IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH RANGE. FCST MUCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA OVER
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN FCST QUESTIONS WILL BE PCPN TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS WARMER AIR IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER MOVES IN ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING. THE PCPN INTENSITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT
A COUPLE INCHES OF WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS INTO
THE MID 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE AIR AND GROUND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PCPN AS THE SNOW
CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
TONIGHT...THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING AS THE
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOP ERLY FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE MODEL SPREAD IS ROUGHLY
10F FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH OUR OFFICIAL
FCST BOUNCING FROM ALL ALONG THE SPECTRUM
THE WEATHER MAP AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE W COAST...AND THE SE U.S. IN THE MIDDLE A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH WY AND
CO. THE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED OVER HUDSON BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DIG ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ARE NOW
IN THE MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OK THROUGH NE AND LOWER MI AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO LOWER MI AND FAR S QUEBEC BY 12Z
MONDAY...AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER FAR E CANADA MONDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE LOW. NW WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TOP OUT 20 TO
NEAR 30KTS...STRONGEST ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
THE COLDEST DAY /TUESDAY/ WILL SEE TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET TO THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN AT THE SFC...WITH NW FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWMELT AND RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SLOWING DOWN THE WHOLE
PROCESS. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO FALL BELOW -8C OVER THE W HALF BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...CHANGING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP TO ALL SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MORE JUMBLED...WITH THE A
GENERAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE S EXTENDED
OF THE LOW FOR TH-FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
THIS LONGER TERM PERIOD. THE MID WEEK SFC HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY
YET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP FROM THE S PLAINS THROUGH NM
AND WI AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T HAVE IT
CROSSING UPPER MI UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT JUMP
INTO THE WEEDS OF THE EXTENDED FCST AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 822 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLDS WILL BE THICKENING EARLY TODAY...EXPECT
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE AND LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. BUT AS A LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD
PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER UPPER MI WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHERE THE AIRMASS IS COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW AND THE LOW LEVEL ESE WIND WILL UPSLOPE AT
CMX AND SAW...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN AT IWD WHERE THE PCPN WILL BE
LIGHTER AND MIXED WITH RAIN...IFR CIGS ARE FCST. ALTHOUGH THE STEADY
PCPN WILL END BY 00Z SUN... LINGERING MOIST E WINDS AND SHALLOW COLD
AIR WL RESULT IN LINGERING LOW CLDS/FOG/SOME -DZ/FZDZ...ESPECIALLY
AT CMX AND SAW WHERE THE FLOW WILL UPSLOPE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND A LOW INTO IA. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN
HIGH RPESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW PRES SYSTE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
FORTUNATELY...LIMITED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HAS KEPT THE SNOWMELT SIMILAR TO NORMAL SPRING
CONDITIONS. WOULD EXPECT A SLOW STEADY RISE IN RIVER LEVELS
TODAY...WITHOUT ANY LARGER RIVERS RISING ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME.
THE PROBLEM AREAS SO FAR HAVE BEEN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN DELTA
COUNTY WHERE HAVE BEEN NEAR OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THERE
HAS SEEN EVIDENCE OF MINOR ICE JAMES ON SOME HYDROGRAPHS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO...MOST NOTABLY ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
(RKLM4) AND THE FORD RIVER NEAR HYDE (FRDM4). THE RKLM4 ICE JAM SEEMS
TO HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM OR BROKEN UP...BUT DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THE
STATE OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM GIVEN A LACK OF REPORTS/RIVER ACCESS.
THE FRDM4 ICE JAM LOOKS TO HAVE RELAXED FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY
HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR THAT RIVER TO WARN OF FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS AND ICE IS LIKELY STILL IN THE SYSTEM. AM UNSURE OF
IMPACTS/EXTENT OF THIS ICE JAM AS RIVER BANKS/STRUCTURES ARE FAIRLY
HIGH ABOVE THE RIVER PER DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS. THERE WERE
ALSO REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER AREA CREEKS/STREAMS THAT ARE
NOT GAUGED...BUT NO IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THIS ICE BREAK UP DOES LEAD
TO SOME CONCERN FOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR RIVERS THAT EMPTY INTO THE MAINLY FROZEN GREAT
LAKES.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW /MELTING AS IT FALLS/
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AMOUNTS TO
BE IN THE 0.30-0.50 INCH RANGE...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING WITH THIS RAIN...THE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. EXPECT COLDER AIR TO SURGE IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OR EVEN
END THE SNOW MELT...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. SINCE 4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
STILL REMAINS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
651 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
1023MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH ELONGATED SFC LOW
ACROSS CTRL PLAINS. ALOFT A VERY FAST FLOW STRETCHES FROM NRN
ROCKIES INTO WCTRL WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH 30H JET CORE. AN
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW LVL JET HAS OCCURRED FROM NEB INTO SERN
SODAK. A FEW LTG STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR NOSE OF LLJ ACROSS
ERN SODAK. SPC MESO SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN LOW/MID LVLS
ACROSS ERN SODAK AND SRN MN. 88D SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS
SWRN/SRN CWA IN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 85H. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT LIQUID AT THIS TIME BUT WITH TIME EVAPO COOLING AND DIABATIC
COOLING WILL PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 12Z NEAR TWIN PORTS
AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
TODAY...AN AREA OF STRONG FORCING WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS PTYPE IN THE EARLY
MORNING WHEN QPF SHOULD BE LARGEST. AFTER CONSIDERING SREF
PLUMES...VARIOUS MDL SOUNDINGS....CURRENT BDRY LYR CONDITIONS AND
LATEST RADAR FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW
NEAR TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS THE NORTH MN ZONES AS DIABATIC COOLING
RESULTS FROM TOP DOWN SATURATION AND INCREASING OMEGA WITHIN THE
DGZ. AREA OF POTENTIALLY SIG SNOW SHOULD OCCUR NEAR TWIN PORTS
FROM 12Z-15Z...AND AROUND 15Z-18Z OVER ARROWHEAD. PUSHED START
TIME ON ARROWHEAD BACK TO 12Z AS SNOW SHOULD NOT ARRIVE TIL MID
MORNING. TOUGH DECISION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE ADVISORY FOR DLH
VICINITY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW HRS
EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MELTING
OCCURS WITH BDRY LYR TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT.
WILL LEAVE ADVISORY FOR ARROWHEAD ALTHOUGH FAST MOVING NATURE OF
THERMAL LIFT MAY LIMIT AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. EXPECT TEMPS IN TWIN
PORTS AREA TO LOWER WITH EVAPO COOLING EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE AFTN HRS. ELSEWHERE WHATEVER BRIEF
BOUT OF RASN MAY OCCUR...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN.
INCREASING PGF ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GIVE INCREASING WINDS NEAR
TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PRESS PATTERN DEVELOPS AS UPPER
TROF DROPS INTO NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTHWARD FROM CTRL PLAINS TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE MN ZONES BY 12Z WITH A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS NWRN CORNER
OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION
COMBINES WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM MID LVL TROF.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS/CANADA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE REGION THEN PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAKING INTO OUR AREA. A MID WEEK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BEING BRUSHED BY A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT SOME POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH INTO MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER
THE AREA AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER/NEAR THE NORTHLAND EARLY TO MID
WEEK...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE
NORTHLAND INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES
WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH WOULD SUGGEST SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BECOME EVEN GREATER LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH VERSUS THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THE GFS
KEEPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WITH SNOW OR RAIN
GOING MUCH LONGER. WE HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
AN AREA OF RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TODAY. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER FOR ALL AREAS TO
MVFR AND EVEN IFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BETWEEN
15-17Z.
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY...THEN WEAK TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
TURN TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 29 39 22 / 90 20 10 20
INL 39 25 37 16 / 80 40 20 20
BRD 52 31 41 22 / 60 10 10 10
HYR 47 31 43 24 / 90 10 20 20
ASX 44 31 41 24 / 90 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-
020-021.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS A
BROAD AREA FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA. LATEST
HRRR INDICATES RAINFALL BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES...TO MILLE LACS LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE NEXT 2 OR SO
HOURS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BETTER WAA INDUCED LIFT AND MORE AMPLE
MOISTURE. MUCAPE LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY...AND FILTERED SUN UNDER JUST HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM AS LITTLE HAS
CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR
TONIGHT...THE THEME WILL BE COOLING TEMPERATURES. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850H WILL ENSUE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
WE LIKE THE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE SUN-MON
TIME FRAME FOR POPS AND TEMPS. THE 12.00/06Z NAM STILL REMAINS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND QPF AXIS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SOUTHERN SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHT IS ENCOURAGING AND
GIVES MUCH US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI NEAR THE 850-700MB
FGEN. THE GFS LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHAT WE WERE SEEING LAST
NIGHT AT THIS TIME AND THE ECMWF MIGHT JUST BE A HAIR NORTH AND
NOW IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN...BUT WE STILL
HAVE CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
AND EVEN SOME SMALL POPS IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A DECENT CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT IF PRECIP REMAINS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS WITH THE
PRESENCE OF COLD ADVECTION. THE LIGHT RAIN MIGHT JUST COME TO AN
END BEFORE THE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH...SO WE HAVE ARE NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOW. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW
MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH
AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET. THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS ALSO BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE NAM/GEM NOW. SO...JUST
AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR NORMAL...WE
SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS. BY
LATE NEXT WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW MAJOR DEVIATION
FROM ONE ANOTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTER PARTS ARE CLOSER TO
ONE ANOTHER. IT`S MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...SO WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE SPECIFICS ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF AXN/STC/RWF BY 12Z...WITH MSP ON THE
FRINGE...AND RNH AND EAU HAVING TO ENDURE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS ACROSS EASTERN SITES...WHERE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING EXISTS. RAP IS
ADAMANT IN 850H MOISTURE BUT NAM DISAGREES. THE HRRR INDICATES MSP
WILL BE ON THE EDGE...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR THREATENING RNH
AND EAU. FOR NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE NAM IN SUPPORT OF DRY AIR
PREVAILING...DESPITE RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING. AMOUNTS THIS
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. DID KEEP A MENTION OF STRATUS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MSP/RNH/EAU AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND
TWEAKED BY UPCOMING SHIFTS.
KMSP...ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SHOWERS BY 12Z. THESE
SHOWERS PROVED TO BE A NON ISSUE IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY...AND WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE METRO THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW
LEVEL STRATUS COULD DEVELOP/LINGER AT MSP...BUT THE BEST CHANCES
LOOK FURTHER EAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ025-026-028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
STILL LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...TSTM CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PCPN TYPE SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
ONE JET STREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING TOWARD NRN BAJA CA
AND ANOTHER WAS PUNCHING EWD FROM ERN MT. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF
AROUND 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER ERN WA AND SRN BC WITH ANOTHER
SIMILAR AREA OF FALLS OVER CA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WORKING
ITS WAY NWD...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 11 C AS FAR NORTH AS
NORMAN OK.
SURFACE CHART AT 08Z SHOWED ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SRN SD TO
THE NORTHWEST OF KONL AND ANOTHER IN ERN CO. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WERE MOVING NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NRN LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN IA TODAY.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS INDICATED SOME ECHOES ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES BUT AMOUNTS SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
TODAY...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST...BUT DID BUMP
HIGHS UP JUST A BIT SRN ZONES BASED ON LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. WE
STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND INTO SWRN IA. RECENT RUNS OF 13 KM RAP AND SOME OF THE
OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT. ML CAPE VALUES REACH
AS HIGH AS AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS EVENING OVER SERN NE
AND SWRN IA.
PCPN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE SOME
ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS IS INDICATED. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BANDING. MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SERN ZONES BY MID
MORNING AS COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALSO...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN NERN NE...PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND
PROBABLY CHANCE TO SNOW BASED ON NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLOWLY FALLING ALL DAY SUNDAY. SNOW COULD SPREAD TOWARD
OMAHA AND LINCOLN BY LATE AFTN. FOR NOW...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
MOST AREA WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH.
PCPN WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO MAINLY LOWER AND MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
STILL LOOK FOR GENERALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. BUT PCPN
CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF NERN NE
THEN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.
MODEL ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS LATE NEXT WEEK
SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS TO ABOUT AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE BY
THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
MOST PRESSING AVN ISSUE IS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ASSOC WITH
TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AT KOMA/KLNK. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL REVOLVE AROUND A STATIONARY FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
CNTRL KS TO CNTRL IA BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TSRA TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE THEN BTWN 06Z-12Z SUN. AS FOR KOFK...APPEARS THAT
CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW THAT ANY TSRA ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KOFK. IS PROBABLE THOUGH KOFK WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS SETTLE IN BY EARLY SUN MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1057 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SPRING SO FAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY. THE RAIN MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ON TUESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANTLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE REGION. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING
SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...AND AS A GENERAL RULE OF THUMB THIS SHOULD GENERALLY
BRING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND. LIKE YESTERDAY LAKE BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP AND BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES. LAKE BREEZES TEND TO BE BEST CAPTURED BY HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR/WRF...WITH THIS GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE SPREADING FAR INLAND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY
TO THE NYS THRUWAY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH A THIN LAYER OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS.
FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS DISSIPATED BUT LIKE YESTERDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES. THROUGH LATE
MORNING...THERE IS NOT MUCH FOG ON THE LAKES AND WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS TODAY THE POTENTIAL IS MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR DO DEVELOP SOME FOG NEAR THE ERIE
LAKE BREEZES...SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
TONIGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
OUR REGION...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ENHANCED BY A 50+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ARE MAXIMIZED. SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 300-500J/KG...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING AN
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM.
THE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MANY AREAS FROM
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WESTWARD...WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING LATE. SOME AREAS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER MAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
8AM SUNDAY AIDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE SHOT OF
ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC AIR. AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING AN
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO ONTARIO WILL BE
FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHARPENING BAROCLINIC GRADIENT. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ASSOCIATED
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY STILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THE BULK
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE AREA WILL BE FIRMLY
PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WITH
850MB TEMPS SURGING TO +12C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MID 70S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ERIE AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINES WHERE THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30KTS BY THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THAT
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DOWNSLOPING COULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
THIS VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S...IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER OUTSIDE.
THIS WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A RESTRICTING
FACTOR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING PWATS ACROSS
WESTERN NY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE AN INCH LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
FEATURE STRONG WINDS MONDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SOLID ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RAINFALL AND THE CONSIDERABLE WARMING/THAWING BEFOREHAND ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL GENERATE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HYDROLOGICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
BELOW...BUT THAT`S NOT ALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ON
TUESDAY. READINGS WILL TUMBLE EVEN LOWER...INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH
UPPER TEENS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND START TO THE WEEK...MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS A
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC
AIR WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY THE NATION`S MID-SECTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH...EITHER WAY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL END UP UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AND THE 50S FRIDAY.
THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED WITH WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
MOVES EASTWARD...AN ISSUE STILL IN CONTENTION AMONG THE MODELS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA FOR THE 15Z
TAF CYCLE. STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR LATE WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL IFR FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT
AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL
THE LAKESHORES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING
LATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS GROWING FOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE A SNOWPACK REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS STILL HAVE A SNOW PACK OF OVER A FOOT WITH WATER
EQUIVALENTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. WATER LEVELS HAVE STEADILY RISEN
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS IN OR APPROACHING
ACTION STAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WELL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW MELTING
PROCESS AND CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. ANY
FLOODING ISSUES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ONLY MINOR AND CONFINED TO
THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE AND INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT.
BIGGER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POTENTIAL NOT ONLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...
BUT THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
BLACK RIVER TO REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY
FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH HAVE SOURCE REGIONS ON THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...TMA/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
735 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER
IN THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SPRING SO FAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY. THE RAIN MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ON TUESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS IS OVERSPREADING WESTERN NY
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CENTRAL NY BY MID
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT BY MIDDAY.
11-3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD FOG
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF CHAU/CATT/ALLEG COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS IS
RADIATIONAL FOG AND DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO IT WILL BURN OFF WITH THE
ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL FOG AREA WILL BE OVER AND JUST EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING...
MODESTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
LAKE ERIE ICE COVER AND MAY PRODUCE A PLUME OF FOG OVER THE LAKE. IF
THIS DEVELOPS...THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD BRING IT INTO THE ERIE
COUNTY SHORELINE AND EVENTUALLY THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE
LATER TODAY. THE AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY HOWEVER...DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
CIGS AND VSBY OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FOR
TODAY...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
OTHER THAN THE FOG...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC TODAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH CONTROL ACROSS OUR REGION TO
PROVIDE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A BATCH OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ENTER WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN THIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUD WILL ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AS MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +7C ACROSS THE WEST AND +4C ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS OF 55 TO 60
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND KEEP
ALL THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD FAR INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE NYS THRUWAY LATE
IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE WARM ADVECTION TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
OUR REGION...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ENHANCED BY A 50+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ARE MAXIMIZED. SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 300-500J/KG...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING AN
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM.
THE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MANY AREAS FROM
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WESTWARD...WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THESE LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING LATE. SOME AREAS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER MAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
8AM SUNDAY AIDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE SHOT OF
ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC AIR. AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING AN
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO ONTARIO WILL BE
FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHARPENING BAROCLINIC GRADIENT. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ASSOCIATED
WITH SATURDAY NIGHT/S WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY STILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR THE BULK
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE AREA WILL BE FIRMLY
PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. WITH
850MB TEMPS SURGING TO +12C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MID 70S SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ERIE AND JEFFERSON
COUNTY SHORELINES WHERE THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30KTS BY THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO THAT
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DOWNSLOPING COULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
THIS VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S...IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER OUTSIDE.
THIS WARMTH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S BY EARLY AFTERNOON EVEN AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP. WHILE THE AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A RESTRICTING
FACTOR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING PWATS ACROSS
WESTERN NY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE AN INCH LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. WITH
DECENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
FEATURE STRONG WINDS MONDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SOLID ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RAINFALL AND THE CONSIDERABLE WARMING/THAWING BEFOREHAND ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL GENERATE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HYDROLOGICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
BELOW...BUT THAT`S NOT ALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ON
TUESDAY. READINGS WILL TUMBLE EVEN LOWER...INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH
UPPER TEENS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND START TO THE WEEK...MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS A
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC
AIR WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY THE NATION`S MID-SECTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
TROUGH...EITHER WAY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL END UP UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AND THE 50S FRIDAY.
THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
SPEED WITH WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
MOVES EASTWARD...AN ISSUE STILL IN CONTENTION AMONG THE MODELS AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG YET MOISTURE STARVED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ABOUT 10Z AND MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA JUST EXPECT
SOME PATCHY CIRRUS.
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH WIDESPREAD IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE PA STATE LINE. THIS FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD
TOWARDS KBUF AND KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS
IS DRIER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE AT BEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE A
BRIEF TEMPO GROUP WITH IFR UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT. IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP...IT MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY EXPECT VFR WITH PASSING THIN
CIRRUS. STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A
LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR LATE WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL IFR FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT
AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG ALL
THE LAKESHORES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING
LATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS GROWING FOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE A SNOWPACK REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS STILL HAVE A SNOW PACK OF OVER A FOOT WITH WATER
EQUIVALENTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. WATER LEVELS HAVE STEADILY RISEN
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS IN OR APPROACHING
ACTION STAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WELL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW MELTING
PROCESS AND CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. ANY
FLOODING ISSUES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ONLY MINOR AND CONFINED TO
THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE AND INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT.
BIGGER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POTENTIAL NOT ONLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...
BUT THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE
BLACK RIVER TO REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY
FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS WHICH HAVE SOURCE REGIONS ON THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ006>008.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...TMA/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
943 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS CONTINUING TO EXTEND BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH TODAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
5H HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A WARM
AND PRIMARILY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S...UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE NORTHERN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WINDS WILL EASE...BUT A SEA BREEZE RESULTANT
WILL DRIVE WINDS TO 15 MPH ALONG THE BEACHES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENT SEA
BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTN...BUT HAVE KEPT POP AT SILENT AS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR WITHIN
THE SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER. STILL...ENHANCE CU IS LIKELY THIS
AFTN/EVE...BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS EXPECTED AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINT ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...AN
INCREASING LLJ WILL LIMIT TOTAL FOG POTENTIAL. INHERITED FORECAST
HAS PATCHY FOG...AND WILL LEAVE UNCHANGED FOR NOW. FOG IS UNLIKELY
TO BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER...AS MINS DROP ONLY INTO THE MID
50S...LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSSOVER TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY LATE
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST.
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON BUT SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS A DIGGING
MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY BUT VEERING AROUND TO S TO SW BY
LATE MONDAY AND INCREASING UP TO 15 MPH OR SO AT THE SFC AND UP TO
30 TO 40 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE MID LEVELS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATER ON MONDAY WHEN WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO GREATER GULF MOISTURE.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM CLOSER TO A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON LATE AFTN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT
OVERALL BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE MON AND MORE SO ON TUES AS
COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MAIN FORCING TO
COME IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
LARGER SCALE CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH SOME SHOWERS
FEEDING INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP
AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UP NEAR 60 OR ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUES AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S. DECENT
DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A STRONG LLJ...DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHWRS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL WAIT TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CWA.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA BY TUES NIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HINTING AT A WEDGE
SIGNATURE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAVE LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME PERIODS
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS IN STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT FOR WED THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD...BUT WILL WEAKEN
AND NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND STRONGER ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS IN AND OUT OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
FROM A HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS
NORTHWARD TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-SHORE REGIONS WHERE AN AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE
WILL ADD 5 OR SO KTS AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
WIND. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
COAST AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT S-SE REMAINING 10-15 KTS OR BELOW KEEPING SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE AND BUILD
ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE MONDAY IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHES UP NEAR 25
KTS. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TUES WITH A
SLIGHT DROP AS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO EARLY
WED. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE
WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK. A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
N-NE WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS THIS RIDGE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT THE RIDGE WILL PUSH GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A SUBSEQUENT BACKING OF OUR
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AGAIN TODAY (DRY ADIABATIC UP THROUGH 6000 FEET)
WILL COMBINE WITH A LITTLE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST TO
DEVELOP A HEALTHIER CUMULUS FIELD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING 5-25 MILES INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS IS INTERESTING SINCE
THE HRRR EXPLICITLY MODELS CONVECTIVE CELLS UNLIKE THE GFS/NAM WHICH
BOTH PARAMETRIZE CONVECTION. VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE 750-900
MB LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE NET MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS... SO I
AM ONLY INCLUDING A TOKEN 5% POP BETWEEN I-95 AND THE COAST. HIGHS
79-82 ARE EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE BEACHES TODAY.
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE PLUS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL PRODUCE
PATCHY FOG AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW STRATUS LATE. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY LATE
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST.
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON BUT SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS A DIGGING
MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY BUT VEERING AROUND TO S TO SW BY
LATE MONDAY AND INCREASING UP TO 15 MPH OR SO AT THE SFC AND UP TO
30 TO 40 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE MID LEVELS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATER ON MONDAY WHEN WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO GREATER GULF MOISTURE.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM CLOSER TO A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON LATE AFTN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT
OVERALL BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE MON AND MORE SO ON TUES AS
COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MAIN FORCING TO
COME IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
LARGER SCALE CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH SOME SHOWERS
FEEDING INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP
AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UP NEAR 60 OR ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUES AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S. DECENT
DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A STRONG LLJ...DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHWRS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL WAIT TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CWA.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA BY TUES NIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HINTING AT A WEDGE
SIGNATURE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAVE LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME PERIODS
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS IN STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT FOR WED THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD...BUT WILL WEAKEN
AND NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND STRONGER ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS IN AND OUT OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED MANY
HUNDREDS OF MILES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WEST FROM THIS HIGH LIES ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
BACKING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. OUTSIDE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S
SEABREEZE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
ONLY 2 FEET. THE SEABREEZE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 KNOTS NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
COAST AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT S-SE REMAINING 10-15 KTS OR BELOW KEEPING SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE AND BUILD
ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE MONDAY IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHES UP NEAR 25
KTS. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TUES WITH A
SLIGHT DROP AS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO EARLY
WED. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE
WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK. A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
N-NE WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS THIS RIDGE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT THE RIDGE WILL PUSH GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A SUBSEQUENT BACKING OF OUR
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AGAIN TODAY (DRY ADIABATIC UP THROUGH 6000 FEET)
WILL COMBINE WITH A LITTLE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST TO
DEVELOP A HEALTHIER CUMULUS FIELD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING 5-25 MILES INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS IS INTERESTING SINCE
THE HRRR EXPLICITLY MODELS CONVECTIVE CELLS UNLIKE THE GFS/NAM WHICH
BOTH PARAMETRIZE CONVECTION. VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW IN THE 750-900
MB LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE NET MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS... SO I
AM ONLY INCLUDING A TOKEN 5% POP BETWEEN I-95 AND THE COAST. HIGHS
79-82 ARE EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE BEACHES TODAY.
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE PLUS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN WE`VE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL PRODUCE
PATCHY FOG AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW STRATUS LATE. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY LATE
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST.
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON BUT SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS A DIGGING
MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY BUT VEERING AROUND TO S TO SW BY
LATE MONDAY AND INCREASING UP TO 15 MPH OR SO AT THE SFC AND UP TO
30 TO 40 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE MID LEVELS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATER ON MONDAY WHEN WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO GREATER GULF MOISTURE.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM CLOSER TO A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON LATE AFTN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT
OVERALL BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE MON AND MORE SO ON TUES AS
COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MAIN FORCING TO
COME IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
LARGER SCALE CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH SOME SHOWERS
FEEDING INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP
AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UP NEAR 60 OR ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUES AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S. DECENT
DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A STRONG LLJ...DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHWRS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL WAIT TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CWA.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA BY TUES NIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HINTING AT A WEDGE
SIGNATURE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAVE LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME PERIODS
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS IN STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT FOR WED THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS AND A LITTLE
ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 7000 FEET SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED MANY
HUNDREDS OF MILES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WEST FROM THIS HIGH LIES ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THIS RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
BACKING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. OUTSIDE OF THIS AFTERNOON`S
SEABREEZE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
ONLY 2 FEET. THE SEABREEZE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 KNOTS NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
COAST AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT S-SE REMAINING 10-15 KTS OR BELOW KEEPING SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE AND BUILD
ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE MONDAY IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHES UP NEAR 25
KTS. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TUES WITH A
SLIGHT DROP AS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO EARLY
WED. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE
WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK. A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
N-NE WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR with extensive upper cloud deck today. SW wind today will
become gusty as surface trough deepens and winds aloft mix down.
Wind should stay up tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
More warm and dry weather today, with a canopy of high clouds still
parading across the area ahead of Sunday`s system (currently
located over California). Critical fire weather concerns continue
primarily across Southeast New Mexico and its bordering Texas
counties today, with potentially widespread critical conditions on
Sunday. For more information, please see the fire weather
discussion below. Similar to yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for
most of the area. A sharpening lee surface trough this afternoon
will allow the dry line to mix to the eastern edges of the CWA,
roughly along a Snyder-Big Lake-Sanderson line. While convective
development is possible along and east of the dry line (where
better moisture resides), the cap remains strong with around
100-200 j/kg CIN and have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for these areas.
Models are also attempting to develop showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Mexico as a subtle
shortwave trough traverses Chihuahua. The NAM, GFS, and RUC all
develop QPF this afternoon and evening from Culberson County into
the Marfa Plateau as a result of this activity moving northeast.
Forecast soundings do indicate top down moistening across
southwest Texas, but still maintain rather large surface
temperature-dew point spreads (30-40 degrees). If anything
actually does make it into Texas (and confidence is not high that
it will), a very dry sub cloud layer makes virga with localized
gusty winds and occasional lightning seem the more likely outcome.
The more noticeable effect of the sharpening surface trough will be
an increase in surface winds today, with gusty southwest winds 15-25
MPH across lower elevations and higher speeds across higher terrain.
Expect windy conditions again Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses
the region, with height falls across the area producing slightly
cooler temperatures. As this trough swings across the area, it will send a
rather potent cold front through the area Sunday night. Expect the
front to push through the entire area by midday Monday.
A very tight pressure gradient (5 mb/50 miles) associated with
this front will produce possible wind advisory criteria (winds
25-35 MPH) behind the front mainly north of I-20. Given a
favorable northeast direction with these winds, a high wind
warning may also be needed for the Guadalupe Mountains (including
Guadalupe Pass). Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds
along and behind the front. Strongest winds look to materialize
between 10Z and 18Z on Monday morning. A secondary wave will dive south
Monday afternoon and, despite sufficient lift, the air over the
forecast area looks too moisture starved (PWATs around 0.3 in over
the northern Permian Basin) to support any of the precip models
are generating over the northern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures will also be much colder behind Sunday`s front with the
potential for a late season freeze on Tuesday morning in the
mountains and northern Permian Basin. Areas along and north of I-20
will need to continue to monitor the forecast for issuance of any
freeze watches or warnings. Shortwave ridging builds across Texas
and New Mexico by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm back to
near seasonal normals. The ECMWF and GFS are indicating a more
active pattern again heading into next weekend, but this far out
have different solutions. Kept the forecast dry into next weekend.
FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting another day of very dry air over much of the region with
minimum RH below 15 percent west of a dryline. As a surface low
moves over the Panhandle today should reach or exceed 20ft winds of
20 mph across SE NM... Guadalupe Mtns... Van Horn region... portions
of the Upper Trans Pecos and NW Permian Basin. Will update the Red
Flag Warning to include all of these locations. A few thunderstorms
possible this afternoon/evening across the Marfa Plateau... these
could be dry storms. Very dry air will spread across all of the
region Sunday as a west wind sweeps across the area. Minimum RH 10
percent or less. As the pressure gradient tightens 20ft winds will
exceed 20 mph over much of the area. Will continue the Fire Weather
Watch Sunday for all of W TX and SE NM. A strong cold front will
blow through the area Sunday night ending fire weather concerns for
a few days.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...
Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Reeves County and Upper
Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
934 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WAS STALLED FROM NEW JERSEY TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SINK INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. TWEAKED THE NEAR
TERM TEMPS HOWEVER STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST HRRR RUN STILL SHOWS THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO LEFT
LOW POPS IN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHORT WAVE OVER MOVING INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS LEFT. OTHERWISE HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. MAY BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHILE THE FRONT IS STILL IN THE
FORECAST AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS WERE FORECASTING CAPES FROM 800-1000 J/KG.
BUFKIT SHOWING A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS. CHALLENGING TO NARROW DOWN WHERE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LOOK LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE
WARM AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BOTH MET/MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY...
AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOW 80S FURTHER EAST. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY TO PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY...IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGELINES...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TOO IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
HOWEVER...SO WILL STICK WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND BELIEVE WE MAY SEE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO HOLD IN THE 50S.
BELIEVE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL START MONDAY RATHER HIT AND MISS
AND BRIEF IN DURATION...MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT IMPRESSIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN
THE DAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER MANAGES TO BREAK FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE COUNTIES SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL
PASS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...EXITING OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES BY MID
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL TENDS TO PUSH COLD
FRONTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...AND THEREFORE
WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL TIMING...WHICH BRINGS
THE WAVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MAY NOT SEE
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TOTALLY EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...THIS ONE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BRING COOL DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
FROSTY MORNINGS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A NARROW STRIP OF MVFR CLOUDS HAD BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...SO KBLF BRIEFLY HAD AN
MVFR CEILING. PATCHY DENSE FOG ALSO DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN SOME
OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS INCLUDING AT KLWB. OTHERWISE SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...ALL
VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FOG AND MVFR CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
14Z/10AM.
WITH A WEAK FRONT NEARBY...EXPECT HEATING TO PRODUCE A BROKEN VFR CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPCLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AS SEEN ON THE LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR. LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS FOR NOW SINCE
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. WINDS TURN BACK SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS AS
THE SURFACE FRONT RECEDES BACK TO THE NORTH.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
MONDAY NIGHT...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST TO
TRIGGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR LIKELY AT THIS POINT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ACT TO
KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SMALLER
AREA OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THE 12.05Z
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ABOUT THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THE ACTION
AROUND OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR AND THE
12.00Z HI-RES ARW IS TO MOVE THE ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT EAST AS
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING TOWARD
THESE MESO MODELS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AT LEAST AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES BY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AS THE REGION GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FOR A
WHILE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THROUGH WILL THEN
START TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF FORCING PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH
THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO THE WEAK FRONT THAT GETS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BY THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY. THE 12.00Z NAM SHOWS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE PRODUCING BETWEEN 2 AND 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE INTO AND OVER THIS FRONT. THE HI-RES ARW SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND
THUS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT STORMS AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER. APPEARS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS TO THE BE THE
STRONGEST OF ALL THE WAVES. IN ADDITION TO THE FORCING FROM THE
WAVE ITSELF...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME JET DYNAMICS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET COMING IN
WITH THE WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET AXIS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF 2 TO 6 UBAR/S OF
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE 295K SURFACE INTO AND OVER
THE FRONT. THIS PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW 75 TO 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FORCING STARTS TO MOVE PAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT COMES
IN AT THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE UP COMING WEEK. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ENERGY MOVING
ON TO THE SOUTHWEST CANADIAN SHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TUESDAY. THE
12.00Z ECMWF THEN TAKES THIS WAVE EAST IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THE
12.00Z GFS AND THE GEM SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GFS CLOSING THIS LOW OFF WHILE THE GEM KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN SYSTEM. ALL THE MODELS THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH IS
GOOD TIMING CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. FOR
NOW...WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS WHICH PRIMARILY
HAVE 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES AT NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A LARGE SHIELD OF SHRA/ISOLD T MOVING EAST
ACROSS MN/IA INTO WESTERN WI. THIS WAS TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT HANGING AROUND
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LOOK FOR THIS BATCH OF SHRA/ISOLD T TO PUSH
EAST INTO CENTRAL WI BY NOON. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR THE WARM
FRONT TO MOVE UP TO NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER WITH KLSE/KRST TAF SITES
REMAINING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AS SHRA ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF BY 15-17Z. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME MVFR AT KRST. SHRA/T EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LASTING INTO
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT TO SWING OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS BACK
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW SOME MVFR CATEGORY CLOUDS TO
FORM AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE BKN025-030
GOING RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FOR POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS
THAN THIS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1105 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE A
WARM FRONT STRETCHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO NEAR ROCHELLE AND
EAST INTO CHICAGO. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE THIS MORNING...THOUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT
OUTRUNS THE MEAGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...MID 50 DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE ACROSS FAR DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MID TO
UPPER 70S RESULTING IN MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED AS THE BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. THE CAPPING
DOES ERODE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER NORTH...AND CANNOT RULE OUT OUTFLOWS
FROM WISCONSIN SINKING SOUTH AND KICKING OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE THE
FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE OF TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE
COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES OR SO OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BROAD
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS WELL AS MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI/IOWA. EXPECT THIS AREA
TO BECOME THE MAIN SHOW WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE AND
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...POSSIBLY EVEN CUTTING OFF ACCESS TO
THE SOME OF THE ENERGY TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA WHICH WOULD THEN
RESULT IN A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANY MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WOULD EVENTUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST TO OR NEAR THE CWA BUT WOULD LIKELY BE IN A DECAYING
PHASE AS IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING OVERHEAD IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
RECOVER SUNDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DEVELOPING AS COUPLED JET DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL PUSH PWATS UP TO AROUND AN INCH AND
A HALF. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
SHOULD OFFSET THIS WITH SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
RE-INTENSIFYING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER WINDS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN TRAINING OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DEEP MOIST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
RAINFALL WILL BE EFFICIENT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A STRIPE
OF 3 TO IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION...MOST LIKELY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FLOODING REMAINS A
CONCERN AND A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK //ESF// WILL BE RE-ISSUED IN THE
MEANTIME...THOUGH A FLOOD WATCH MAY WELL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY.
THERE WILL BE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES DEPENDING
ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PROGRESSES WHICH CAN BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS
COOL AIR FROM THE LAKE. LIKELY THERE WILL BE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST SOMEWHERE WITH 70S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
40S/50S ON THE COOL SIDE. PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER ADD ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WEAKER SYNOPTIC WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...EVENTUALLY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -12C MONDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY MORNING...TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW FALLING INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH DURING THE DAY AT LEAST WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 40S SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MELT ANY PRECIP
BEFORE OR AS IT HITS THE SURFACE. BY MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE
SNOW. WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARMER AIR STARTING TO SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL EXPECTED TO
CONTNUE TO TRACK EAST NEXT 1-2 HRS...PASSING A FEW MILES NORTH
OF DPA/ORD PROPER.
* SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS 25KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN EASING OFF AROUND SUNSET.
* CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
* MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING LATER SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN IL AT
11 UTC WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AS RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. AS THIS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO
DEEPER DRIER AIR AND AWAY FROM WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS
BACK TO THE WEST... EXPECT IT TO FALL APART.
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO IOWA LATER IN
THE DAY... WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY VIA THESE BRISK SOUTH WINDS
AND HELP FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
BUT MOSTLY LIKELY STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF ORD/MDW THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
BETTER FORCING FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TOGETHER ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD SOMETIME FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT
STILL... BUT WINDOW OF BETTER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO IMPACT
ORD/MDW BETWEEN 04-08Z. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY... LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR... AND POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A PERIOD LATER.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDNECE IN TSRA TRACKING NORTH OF ORD THROUGH
LATE MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTH WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BY LATE MORNING
TODAY... GUSTING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED
12Z...
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER - VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
325 AM CDT
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN TO IMPACT LAKE MICHIGAN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...
AND THE BEST INFORMATION WILL BE OBTAINED VIA GRAPHICS ON THE GREAT
LAKES WEB PORTAL RATHER THAN THE LEGACY GLF TEXT WHERE THE RICHNESS
OF ALL THE INFORMATION CAN MORE READILY BE DECIPHERED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL
SEPARATE SOUTH WINDS TO THE SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
CENTRAL AND NORTH. AS THE PLAINS LOW REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT
IT WILL DRAPE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY... YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND REACH SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. GALE WIND THRESHOLDS MAY FIRST BE SURPASSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MOST INITIALLY
AND WHERE THERMAL INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH EARLY MONDAY... AND MAY BE ALSO EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE
NORTH THIRD OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... BUT THIS PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE LONG
LASTING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF INVERTED LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Forecast generally looks good today and only needed to lower the
amount of cloud cover this morning. Partly to mostly cloudy skies
earlier this morning have become mostly sunny by late morning as
warm front lifted ne of central IL with strong to severe
thunderstorms with hail east of Rockford moving east at 45 mph
toward McHenry county IL. Partly to mostly sunny skies expected
this afternoon with clouds increasing this afternoon especially
over the IL river valley where mostly cloudy skies by sunset.
Showers and thunderstorms should stay north of central IL through
sunset and will keep a dry forecast. Warmer highs in the upper 70s
to near 80F still on track with strong south winds 15 to 25 mph
and gusts of 25 to 35 mph ahead of 1002 mb low pressure over
eastern NE and central KS that deepens to 996 mb by sunset.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
Southerly winds will ramp up quickly this morning as mixing takes
place, with gusts of 25-30 knots likely by late morning,
continuing into the afternoon. The gusts should begin to drop off
early this evening, but sustained winds of 10-15 knots still
likely through the night. Will need to watch for potential for
LLWS, with some of the models hinting at some borderline LLWS
conditions by mid evening, but will hold off on including it for
now. Ceilings so far today have been VFR, but as low as around
4000 feet near KDEC. HRRR guidance continues to suggest a period
of around 3500 feet through late morning, before rising toward
early afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm trends are more uncertain, as the incoming
cold front slows a bit. Latest model guidance suggests the period
after 06Z is most likely to see anything, but the showers/storms
that will develop west of the Mississippi River this evening will
likely be breaking up as they approach central Illinois. Have
included some VCSH mention at KPIA/KBMI/KSPI for late in the TAF
period, but kept it dry further east.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday
A windy and very warm day is in store across central Illinois
today. An old frontal boundary currently draped across central
Missouri into the Ohio River Valley will lift rapidly northward
this morning, bringing increasing southerly winds and low-level
moisture. Impressive dew point gradient currently evident across
the region, with middle 30s observed north of the boundary across
central Illinois rising to the lower to middle 50s south of the
front across southern Missouri into western Kentucky. Thanks to
a tightening pressure gradient, strong southerly winds will
transport this moisture northward into central Illinois this
afternoon, pushing DEWPOINTS into the middle to upper 50s.
Forecast soundings and BUFKIT data suggest wind gusts of 30 to
35mph later today. With partly sunny skies and strong southerly
flow, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than
yesterday, with most locations topping out in the middle to upper
70s.
Two upper air features will play a major role in the weather
across the Midwest over the next 48 hours. The first is a cut-off
low currently spinning over southern California, and the second is
a northern stream wave dropping southeastward toward the northern
Rockies. As the cut-off low opens up and is ejected eastward,
surface cyclogenesis will take place over the Oklahoma panhandle
later today into tonight. Increasing LLJ ahead of the approaching
low will allow convection to blossom within the strongest
instability axis across Kansas into central/northern Iowa late
this afternoon/evening. While decent CAPE values of around
1000J/kg will develop further east across central Illinois today,
forecast soundings show a strong cap at around 750mb. Due to the
capped air mass and lack of strong forcing, will go with a dry
forecast across the board through this afternoon. As surface low
and its associated frontal boundary slowly edge eastward,
showers/storms will begin to develop across the western KILX CWA
tonight. Models have trended slower with the eastward spread of
the precip, so will confine PoPs to locations along/west of the
I-55 corridor. System makes only slow progress eastward on Sunday,
with NAM/GFS/ECMWF showing little or no precip across the far
E/SE. Have made a few adjustments to PoPs in order to account for
the slowing trend, with areas along/south of I-70 remaining dry
throughout the day Sunday. Further west, will go with categorical
PoPs in the Illinois River Valley in closer proximity to strongest
forcing. Will be another very warm day, with highs ranging from
the rain-cooled upper 60s west of the Illinois River to the upper
70s far SE.
Best rain chances arrive Sunday night as initial upper wave pushes
cold front into the area. With strong convergence along the
surface front, ample support aloft, and precipitable water values
climbing to around 1.50, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
a good bet. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely as well. Cold
front will push into Indiana by Monday morning, resulting in windy
and sharply colder conditions. High temperatures will only be in
the 40s across much of the area, with early morning highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 across the Wabash River Valley dropping
into the 40s as the day progresses. In addition, all models
indicate lingering showers well behind the boundary as northern
stream upper wave arrives. Big question will be whether or not any
moisture can linger long enough to change to snow Monday night as
850mb temps drop into the -4 to -8C range and surface temps drop
into the upper 20s/lower 30s. At this point, the NAM is the only
model that is showing snow across central Illinois, as it develops
a secondary low along the departing cold front. GFS/ECMWF/GEM do
not develop this feature and thus bring the precip to an end
before the air mass cools sufficiently for snow. As a result, will
only carry a slight chance for rain showers during the evening
across the E/SE CWA, followed by cold and dry weather overnight.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
Mainly quiet weather can be expected in the extended, with a
gradual warm-up. Rising upper heights will allow chilly temps in
the 40s on Tuesday to recover into the 60s by Thursday and Friday.
Models are having trouble resolving the next potential system to
impact the region by the end of next week, with the GFS being much
more aggressive with precip Thursday night into Friday. Due to
discrepancies this far out, will only mention a slight chance for
showers on Friday until better consensus is reached.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
444 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
BASED ON CLOUD/RADAR TRENDS AND WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED INTERNALLY
BY TRENDS FROM THE RAP ETC...A MAJORITY OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OR WEST/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TOWARD KEBS.
THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF NEW CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO
DEVELOP/PUSH CONVECTION VERY SLOWLY INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
WEST OF KDBQ BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
AFTER 7 PM...IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES AND THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A VERY PRONOUNCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM SIOUX CITY
IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS OF 2 PM. THIS FRONT HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ON ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...AND WILL BE AGAIN
THE FOCUS IN A FEW HOURS. THE MORNING ROUND OF SEVERE ELEVATED
STORMS PRODUCED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS A VERY
STRONG PROGRESSIVE DOWN BURST WITH ONE SUPERCELL ALONG HIGHWAY 20
IN STEPHENSON COUNTY. THIS DOWN BURST MAY HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...IS WELL
MIXED AND CONTINUES TO WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA...MAKING THIS EASILY THE WARMEST DAY IN MANY MONTHS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MIDWEST...AND ANY FURTHER INCREASE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH
CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
TONIGHT WILL SEE STORMS FIRE INITIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO
NORTHEAST IOWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...MUCH LIKE EARLIER TODAY. THIS PORTION OF THE EVENT
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT COULD IMPACT OUR FAR NORTHWEST
THROUGH 7 PM. EITHER WAY...IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE. BY LATER IN THE
EVENING...A COLD POOL SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
FRONT...ALLOWING STORMS TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH AS A LINE OR BROKEN
LINE. AT THAT TIME...THE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIND...BEFORE
THE LINE STALLS OR RUNS INTO A MORE STOUT CAP/EML STILL PRESENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WHERE EVER THIS OCCURS...THE LINE SHOULD STALL OR
AT LEAST SLOW FOR A POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING/TRAINING STORMS.
THUS...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS NORTHWEST...AS IS
POPS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING IS
JUXTAPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST...OVER OUR CENTRAL CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES EVOLVE...WE CAN GREATLY REFINE
THIS DUAL THREAT. RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH OVER 1
INCH WHERE STORMS LAY OUT VERY LIKELY.
SUNDAY...THE MAIN MOISTURE AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE
MORNING...FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH
STRONGER UPPER DIFLUENCE IS FORECAST...BUT LESSER CAPE.
THUS...EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT RAIN RATES OVER 0.5 PER HOUR AT TIMES. WITH STRONG FORCING
ALL DAY...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY OVER THE
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. IF WE WERE NOT IN DROUGHT...WITH UNFROZEN
GROUND...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY FLASH FLOOD RISK...BUT THAT IS NOT
THE CASE. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND
RIVER FLOODING...IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING SO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE OVERALL
FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS COLDER AIR STARTS GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA.
THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT IS HOW FAST DOES THE COLD AIR ARRIVE.
BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED A MIX SHOULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE MONDAY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY THE MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CHANGING OVER TO
ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WARMER GROUND ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.
AS MONDAY MORNING PROGRESSES...SOLAR INSOLATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BY LATE
MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH RAIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
THE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS GOES FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND WHERE IT TRACKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY...THEY WILL
END WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL IOWA AND MOVE
EAST TO NORTHEAST...AFFECTING CID AND DBQ BY MID EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY MLI AND BRL LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN ALL
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY SHOWS NO IMPROVEMENT AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ILLINOIS. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST...AND
BRING STEADY IFR CIGS TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN. THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS INTENSE DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF THE RAINS.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
20Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a weak wave moving
through the central plains while a shortwave over the southwest
moves into AZ and a second shortwave digs southeast through the
Pacific northwest. Surface obs show an inverted trough just to the
west of the forecast area across central and southwest KS. Strong
southerly winds continue to bring dewpoints in the upper 50s and
lower 60s north into eastern KS. A dryline was noted from western OK
into central KS near Kingman up to near Elsworth.
The main question for this evening is whether a surface parcel will
be able to break through an impressive elevated mixed layer (EML)
that the 18Z NAM shows is still providing 60 to 100 J/kg of CIN just
east of the dryline. The latest high resolution models are still
trying to generate an isolated storm of two off the dryline during
the next hour or two and lift it into northeast KS. Shear profiles
continue to look unimpressive, but with CAPE values on the order of
2500 J/kg, there would be a hail risk if an updraft were able to get
going. At this point am thinking the cap may end up being to strong
since convergence along the dryline is minor and a weak shortwave is
the only real forcing to break the cap. Even at 20Z there is not
much of a CU field along the dryline to speak of either. So
attention turns to the inverted trough to the north and whether
storms can back build into northeast KS. The surface boundary across
IA is further north than previous models had progged with the best
low level convergence across northeast IA. So in general precip
chances look highly dependent on whether a storm or two forms off
the dryline. Because of this have trended POPs lower for tonight.
Lows will be mild for much of the area as southerly winds continue
to bring warm air into the forecast area. The exception may be over
Far north central KS where the trough/front could slip south
shifting the winds to the northeast and allow temps to fall into the
mid 50s.
For Sunday, there should be much better lift and forcing for precip
as the shortwave over the southwest is kicked east and the frontal
boundary pushes southeast. Increasing clouds suggest the
destabilization could be limited ahead of the front and the models
show less instability with the cold front. Additionally deep layer
shear continues to look marginal. Think there will be a broken line
of showers and storms with the front and have continued with
categorical wording in eastern KS through the afternoon. There may
also be enough instability for some of the stronger storms to produce
hail. There should be a modest warm up of 5 or 10 degrees Sunday
before strong cold air advection kicks in and causes temps to fall
behind the front. There may also be a brief period where winds could
reach advisory levels across north central KS late in the afternoon.
Some of the models are showing the potential for gusts up to 40KT.
Opted to hold off on any advisory at this time since it appears to
be a small window where winds would exceed advisory levels and
confidence in the overall model performance is only average.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Several challenges Sunday night into Monday night, including
precipitation chances and types, temperatures, and wind speeds.
Initial upper wave and cold front should exit the east and
southeast early in the evening with next surge of upper forcing
via the next wave aloft coming into the western and central
portions overnight. The NAM continues to be a rather slow and also
deeper solution with the secondary wave, with colder air
throughout the column keeping saturation deeper and heavier/longer
duration precipitation chances. With the split flow continuing and
energy bifurcating along it to the northwest, nailing down
specifics of the forcing and vertical profiles is difficult, but
still believe the NAM is hard to swallow and will rely on the
larger domain solutions again. In this scenario, low and mid
levels dry out Sunday night into Monday morning, keeping amounts
light and highs still reaching the mid and upper 40s Monday.
Although ice crystal formation could still be difficult, with
soundings falling below freezing through the column, still looks
to be a several hour window of light snowfall potential. Given the
warmth of recent days and likely wet ground, any accumulations
should be limited to grassy surfaces. Stout pressure gradient and
diurnally high mixing heights could present a wind advisory
concern Sunday night and perhaps into early Monday, but given this
rare occurrence frequency and aforementioned uncertainty, will
hold off on any headlines at this point. Freezing temperatures
look to impact western and northern locations briefly Sunday night
and the entire area for many hours Monday night as the surface
ridge passes under clear skies.
Zonal flow brings south winds back rather quickly Tuesday and
Wednesday with limited initial moisture return behind the early week
anticyclone. Could see some fire weather concerns here. Next
precipitation chance still on track for the late week, but
considerable uncertainty here too with split flow persisting. Some
consistency in Thursday and Thursday night for chance PoPs here. How
much cold air comes in then for Friday is tricky, but should see
some moderation for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Confidence in thunderstorms impacting the terminals this afternoon
or this evening is diminishing. Latest NAM12 and RAP13 continue to
show a decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary layer with
only a weak wave providing any forcing. Any low level convergence
looks to remain well north along a trough axis/front in southern
NEB and IA. And the latest HRRR suggests that maybe an isolated
storm or two will be able to break the cap due to daytime heating.
Because of this will not mention any TS in the forecast at this
time. Additionally any lower CIGS from the models seems to be tied
to a potential MCS moving south. With the increasing CIN overnight
and a veered low level jet, am a little suspicious of the NAM and
especially the GFS which has not had a handle on the low level
moisture now since it began to advect north. Therefore will keep
the forecast VFR overnight. Think deteriorating conditions with
precip is most likely with the eventual FROPA which looks to
affect the terminals early Sunday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS THROUGH 18Z SHOWS A DEEPENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A SECOND DEEPENING DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP INTO
WESTERN IOWA. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM KDDC TO EAST OF KHHF...AND
IT APPEARS TO HAVE JUST GONE THROUGH KGAG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING RISEN TO AROUND 60
DURING THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME...BUT 18Z DATA SHOWING SOME DRYING OUT FROM
MIXING.
COOK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE 17Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
12.15Z RAP FORECAST OF THESE FIELDS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES MAX
OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING OVER 25 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME...NOT THAT EXCITED FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. THE 15Z
HRRR DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
DRYLINE AFTER 00Z...AS DOES THE 12.12Z WRF-NMM. THIS IS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. AT THAT TIME...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS IS ALSO THE
BEST TIME FOR A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
HAVE COME DOWN BY THEN...JUST NOT SURE THEY WILL HAVE COME DOWN
ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
WE ARE LOOKING AT DISCREET SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL. BELIEVE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE HIGH GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANVIL SEEDING AND THE 0-10KM SHEAR
IS GREATER THAN 90 KNOTS. THINK THAT BASEBALL HAIL OR LARGER AS A
MAX HAIL SIZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AREA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...SLOWLY ADVANCING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN AS IT
PASSES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT SUGGESTS WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
BY SUNDAY AT 18Z...THE FRONT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM
EMPORIA TO WINFIELD. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS
WILL FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS. FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS...WITH MEAN WIND VECTORS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A RAPID DEVELOP OF STORMS...WITH STORMS BEING
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR FASHION. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.
AS SAID EARLIER...AS THE FRONT EXITS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MOVE
IN. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
INTO THE REGION AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. BUFKIT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS THE WIND COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH MONDAY NIGHT IN LINE FOR
A REASONABLE FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO. WITH ALL THE COMPLEX WEATHER
GOING ON AHEAD OF THIS THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS FOR LATTER SHIFTS TO
CONTEMPLATE.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO POSITION...STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A DANGEROUS
DAY FOR FIRES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE GULF OPENS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING
RATHER STRONG AND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY
COMBINATIONS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS AT KICT...KHUT AND KCNU HAS
GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION RAMPING UP BETWEEN
23-01 UTC. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATING DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND FURTHER
MIXING WILL NOT AID THAT SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL FIRE VICINITY
OF KHUT AND KSLN. CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS ACTUALLY WILL FIRE IS
RATHER LOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN CB AND VCTS FOR THE TIME BEING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 03 AND 06 UTC. COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 04-O6 UTC...WITH CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO
BOTH KRSL AND KSLN BY 12 UTC.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE NEXT REAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR GRASSLAND WILL NOT BE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
THAT SAID...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SPURN MORE GROWTH OF GRASSES...AS WE
TREND TOWARD LESSER CURING.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 64 76 32 45 / 20 80 50 40
HUTCHINSON 61 74 30 45 / 20 70 50 40
NEWTON 63 74 30 44 / 30 80 50 40
ELDORADO 64 76 32 44 / 20 80 50 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 66 78 34 46 / 20 80 50 40
RUSSELL 55 59 29 46 / 20 60 50 10
GREAT BEND 56 61 28 46 / 20 50 50 20
SALINA 60 67 30 46 / 30 70 50 20
MCPHERSON 60 70 29 45 / 30 70 50 30
COFFEYVILLE 65 74 36 45 / 10 80 70 30
CHANUTE 64 73 35 43 / 10 80 70 40
IOLA 63 73 34 43 / 20 80 70 40
PARSONS-KPPF 64 73 36 44 / 10 80 70 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-
048.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 429 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Early Saturday morning, a short wave trough was moving across the
northern Plains with a surface low moving along the NE/SD border
and a cold front extending southwest across western Nebraska.
Meanwhile, a broad trough was in place over the western CONUS with
a closed low drifting east across southern California. Surface low
pressure was deepening over southeast Colorado with a broad 40 to
60 kt low level jet across the southern and central Plains.
Moisture advection was in full swing, with mid-50s surface
dewpoints into the local area by 3 AM and low-60s dewpoints in
central Oklahoma. By late afternoon today, expect the surface low
to deepen and drift east into SW Kansas while a surface
trough/cold front extends northeast into SE Nebraska. A dryline
seems likely to set up just west of a Salina to Wichita line
(although RAP/HRRR are intent in mixing the dry air well into
eastern KS...likely incorrectly) with increased definition with
southward extent. A low level thermal axis should point from the
surface low NE toward Salina where it will intersect the dryline
with slightly backed surface winds just south of this axis. High
temperatures today are likely to climb into the lower 80s with
south winds gusting to 30+ mph especially south of I-70.
Minor details of the pre-convective environment on Saturday are
going to have substantial impacts on overall convective coverage and
intensity. Perhaps the most important detail is the quality of low
level moisture and it`s impact on parcels ability to overcome the
late day cap. Surface Td greater than 60, or even 62, would
indicated a much better chance for late day initiation along the
dryline than Td`s in the 50s. Timing of a weak short wave will also
play a role in weakening the cap between 00Z and 03Z. If this weak
wave can adequately cool the capping inversion coincident with peak
instability, initiation would become much more likely than if it is
a bit slower to pass through. If storms are able to develop, the
strength of the mid level wind fields comes into question. A
weakness in the wind fields is forecast to be present between 21Z
and 01Z, and shear profiles may not be sufficient for supercell
development within this weakness, making storm persistence more
difficult. However, the wind profiles are forecast to rapidly
improve with stronger low and mid level winds by 03Z... favoring
supercell structures in any convection ongoing by that time.
The most likely scenario to play out seems to be a warm sector
characterized by 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 0-6 shear in the
25 to 35 kt range by 00Z. One area of thunderstorm development will
be favored in SW Iowa late this afternoon, and will probably see
this activity develop southwest into NE Kansas along the cold
front/sfc trough, although this may not occur until evening as the
short wave trough moves over and the LLJ intensifies and impinges
upon the boundary. Large hail would be the primary threat with this
activity, especially if embedded supercell structure develops.
Damaging winds would also be possible especially near the front
through evening while the tornado threat will be near zero. Another
area of convection, much more conditional in terms of development,
may initiate near the intersection of the dryline and cold front/sfc
trough currently forecast to be in the general Salina area. This is
in an area of enhanced low level convergence and a relative minimum
in CINH. Any storms that develop in this area would seem likely to
take on supercell characteristics with a main threat being very
large hail with such steep mid level lapse rates and strong
instability. LCL`s are expected to be rather high and the tornado
threat appears very low, although these conditions would also pose
at least some potential for damaging winds. Some guidance suggests
these storms could move east and track south of I-70 for a while but
increasing inhibition would likely kill the storms before getting
too far into eastern KS.
As the night continues, expect the primary convective focus to be
across northern KS, north of the effective surface front and likely
shifting north with time as the front lifts north during the early
morning. Overall convective coverage in KS through the night is
questionable, but seem to at least have a persistent focus north of
I-70 where the LLJ impinges on the front amidst elevated instability
and favorable shear profiles for organized storms. May continue a
large hail threat...or even isolated damaging winds...through the
night but decreasing with time.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
By Sunday morning, the broad mid-level trough will be stretched
across much of the northern and central U.S., with models in good
agreement that there will be two embedded shortwave troughs within
the large wave. At the surface, there are still some model
discrepancies with the speed of the cold front through the region on
Sunday. In general, the cold front looks to be stretched across
north central Kansas by 12z Sun and should exit southeast of the
area between 21z-00z. The exact timing of this frontal passage will
have an impact on temperatures as strong southerly winds ahead of
the front should keep temperatures mild across far east central
Kansas while winds should quickly back to the northwest and become
breezy behind the front, ushering much cooler air into the region.
As a result, north central Kansas will likely experience their high
temperatures first thing in the morning with falling temperatures
through the remainder of the day. At this time, have a large spread
for highs Sunday, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s.
The first of the embedded mid-level shortwaves looks to track
eastward across the region on Sunday, helping to provide additional
forcing. Should see some scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing along and behind the cold front during the morning,
becoming more organized and likely intensifying through the
afternoon as the front progresses eastward over the area. By Sunday
afternoon, models show MUCAPE values reaching into the 1500-2000J/kg
range across east central Kansas with 0-6km bulk shear potentially
reaching upwards of 30-40kts. With these conditions in place near
the front, some of these storms could become strong to severe, with
large hail and strong winds being the primary threats. It`s worth
noting that the models show deep unidirectional shear along the
boundary, so could see these thunderstorms congeal into a line
during the afternoon and may also see periods of heavy rain,
especially across east central Kansas, with precipitable water
values potentially reaching near 1.20-1.30 inches. As the front
moves out of the area by around 00z, any lingering thunderstorms
across east central Kansas should become elevated.
By Sunday night, there is still some uncertainty with regards to how
much precipitation will still be in place across the area into
Monday morning. The second embedded mid-level shortwave will dive
southward across the High Plains Sunday night, but there are model
discrepancies with the location of the moisture associated with this
wave. The GFS/ECMWF show some drier air moving over the area with
the moisture from the shortwave remaining mostly to the south and
west, possibly clipping the far southern CWA. The NAM/GEM on the
other hand don`t push the moisture as far south and have it tracking
across much of the CWA Sunday night through Monday. Have trended
more toward the GFS/ECMWF and have trimmed PoPs back some Sunday night
into Monday morning with dry conditions by Monday afternoon.
However, with the cold air surging into the region behind the cold
front, low temperatures look to drop into the low/mid 30s so any
lingering light precipitation during this period could transition
over to a mix of rain and snow. In trending more with the drier
solutions, do not anticipate any snow accumulations at this time.
Surface high pressure moves in on Monday behind the exiting system,
with breezy northerly winds keeping conditions nearly 15-20F degrees
cooler than normal with highs only into the middle 40s. The center
of the surface high looks to track directly over the region Monday
night, resulting in very cold conditions with low temperatures
plunging below freezing into the mid/upper 20s. As a result, could
potentially be looking at freeze headlines for Tuesday morning.
As the mid-level trough advances toward the east coast,
fairly zonal flow sets up through mid week with conditions remaining
dry. With the surface high shifting east of the area and winds
shifting to the southwest, temperatures should quickly rebound back
into the 50s and 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Models show the next
mid-level trough developing over the northern Rockies on Wednesday,
however there are large model discrepancies with how this wave is
handled as to progresses into the central U.S., with the ECMWF
having the trough skim across the area Thu/Thu night while the GFS
has a closed low develop and tracks it directly over the CWA. With
these vast model differences, didn`t make too many adjustments to
the consensus blend for the end of the week except to trim PoPs back
to only slights for Thu/Thu night due to the model uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Confidence in thunderstorms impacting the terminals this afternoon
or this evening is diminishing. Latest NAM12 and RAP13 continue to
show a decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary layer with
only a weak wave providing any forcing. Any low level convergence
looks to remain well north along a trough axis/front in southern
NEB and IA. And the latest HRRR suggests that maybe an isolated
storm or two will be able to break the cap due to daytime heating.
Because of this will not mention any TS in the forecast at this
time. Additionally any lower CIGS from the models seems to be tied
to a potential MCS moving south. With the increasing CIN overnight
and a veered low level jet, am a little suspicious of the NAM and
especially the GFS which has not had a handle on the low level
moisture now since it began to advect north. Therefore will keep
the forecast VFR overnight. Think deteriorating conditions with
precip is most likely with the eventual FROPA which looks to
affect the terminals early Sunday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
114 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH
DAKOTA IN ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE SD WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IA.
FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO NE SD BORDERING ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDING THROUGH NRN OTARIO.
SHRA FROM CNTRL MN AND NW WI INTO SW MN AND NRN IA WAS SUPPORTED BY
STRONG 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE WAS
ALSO ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA FROM ERN SD
INTO NW IA.
TODAY...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE ENE INTO UPPER MI AS THE BAND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES THROUGH AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 JET LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO
MOVES THROUGH. THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSEST TO THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT...WITH
OVERALL QPF VALUES IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH RANGE. FCST MUCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 400 J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA OVER
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN FCST QUESTIONS WILL BE PCPN TYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS WARMER AIR IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER MOVES IN ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING. THE PCPN INTENSITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THAT
A COUPLE INCHES OF WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS INTO
THE MID 30S. FORTUNATELY...THE AIR AND GROUND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PCPN AS THE SNOW
CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
TONIGHT...THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING AS THE
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS EXIT THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS FAVORED BY
UPSLOP ERLY FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE MODEL SPREAD IS ROUGHLY
10F FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH OUR OFFICIAL
FCST BOUNCING FROM ALL ALONG THE SPECTRUM
THE WEATHER MAP AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE W COAST...AND THE SE U.S. IN THE MIDDLE A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH WY AND
CO. THE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED OVER HUDSON BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DIG ACROSS FAR N ONTARIO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ARE NOW
IN THE MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM OK THROUGH NE AND LOWER MI AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO LOWER MI AND FAR S QUEBEC BY 12Z
MONDAY...AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER FAR E CANADA MONDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE LOW. NW WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TOP OUT 20 TO
NEAR 30KTS...STRONGEST ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
THE COLDEST DAY /TUESDAY/ WILL SEE TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET TO THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN AT THE SFC...WITH NW FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWMELT AND RIVER LEVELS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...SLOWING DOWN THE WHOLE
PROCESS. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO FALL BELOW -8C OVER THE W HALF BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...CHANGING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP TO ALL SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MORE JUMBLED...WITH THE A
GENERAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE S EXTENDED
OF THE LOW FOR TH-FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
THIS LONGER TERM PERIOD. THE MID WEEK SFC HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY
YET ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP FROM THE S PLAINS THROUGH NM
AND WI AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ACROSS UPPER MI THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T HAVE IT
CROSSING UPPER MI UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT JUMP
INTO THE WEEDS OF THE EXTENDED FCST AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN AND SHOULD GO TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL SITES.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED AND THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS WELL TO KEEP DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE LAKE
TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM NRN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND A LOW INTO IA. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS MONDAY OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN
HIGH RPESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW PRES SYSTE OVER THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
FORTUNATELY...LIMITED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HAS KEPT THE SNOWMELT SIMILAR TO NORMAL SPRING
CONDITIONS. WOULD EXPECT A SLOW STEADY RISE IN RIVER LEVELS
TODAY...WITHOUT ANY LARGER RIVERS RISING ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME.
THE PROBLEM AREAS SO FAR HAVE BEEN SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN DELTA
COUNTY WHERE HAVE BEEN NEAR OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THERE
HAS SEEN EVIDENCE OF MINOR ICE JAMES ON SOME HYDROGRAPHS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO...MOST NOTABLY ON THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
(RKLM4) AND THE FORD RIVER NEAR HYDE (FRDM4). THE RKLM4 ICE JAM SEEMS
TO HAVE MOVED DOWNSTREAM OR BROKEN UP...BUT DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THE
STATE OF THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM GIVEN A LACK OF REPORTS/RIVER ACCESS.
THE FRDM4 ICE JAM LOOKS TO HAVE RELAXED FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY
HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR THAT RIVER TO WARN OF FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS AND ICE IS LIKELY STILL IN THE SYSTEM. AM UNSURE OF
IMPACTS/EXTENT OF THIS ICE JAM AS RIVER BANKS/STRUCTURES ARE FAIRLY
HIGH ABOVE THE RIVER PER DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS. THERE WERE
ALSO REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER AREA CREEKS/STREAMS THAT ARE
NOT GAUGED...BUT NO IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THIS ICE BREAK UP DOES LEAD
TO SOME CONCERN FOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR RIVERS THAT EMPTY INTO THE MAINLY FROZEN GREAT
LAKES.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW /MELTING AS IT FALLS/
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AMOUNTS TO
BE IN THE 0.30-0.50 INCH RANGE...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING WITH THIS RAIN...THE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. EXPECT COLDER AIR TO SURGE IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OR EVEN
END THE SNOW MELT...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. SINCE 4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
STILL REMAINS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1107 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE PCPN IS NO LONGER AS WIDESPREAD AS INTENSE AS IT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND AS EARLIER MODELS HAD INDICATED. AS THE
BAND OF LIGHT PCPN LIFTS INTO THE ARROWHEAD...THIS HAD
IMPLICATIONS ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MOST NEW MODELS RUNS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON PCPN AMOUNTS FOR THE ARROWHEAD. WHILE THE NAM12
WAS STILL BULLISH ON SNOWFALL...IT WAS FAR TOO HIGH FOR THE TWIN
PORTS AREA. I THINK TEMPERATURES ARE JUST TOO WARM...AND THAT THE
NAM12 IS TOO COLD AND EXPECTING MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION THAT WE ARE
SEEING. THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE CUTTING DOWN THE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BECAUSE THE ROADS ARE ABLE TO MELT MUCH OF
THE SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANGE IN
THE MODELS GAVE ME ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE
THE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
THAT WE WERE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTING. I THINK A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE AT MOST. I CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
1023MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH ELONGATED SFC LOW
ACROSS CTRL PLAINS. ALOFT A VERY FAST FLOW STRETCHES FROM NRN
ROCKIES INTO WCTRL WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH 30H JET CORE. AN
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW LVL JET HAS OCCURRED FROM NEB INTO SERN
SODAK. A FEW LTG STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR NOSE OF LLJ ACROSS
ERN SODAK. SPC MESO SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN LOW/MID LVLS
ACROSS ERN SODAK AND SRN MN. 88D SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS
SWRN/SRN CWA IN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AT 85H. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT LIQUID AT THIS TIME BUT WITH TIME EVAPO COOLING AND DIABATIC
COOLING WILL PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 12Z NEAR TWIN PORTS
AND NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
TODAY...AN AREA OF STRONG FORCING WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS PTYPE IN THE EARLY
MORNING WHEN QPF SHOULD BE LARGEST. AFTER CONSIDERING SREF
PLUMES...VARIOUS MDL SOUNDINGS....CURRENT BDRY LYR CONDITIONS AND
LATEST RADAR FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW
NEAR TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS THE NORTH MN ZONES AS DIABATIC COOLING
RESULTS FROM TOP DOWN SATURATION AND INCREASING OMEGA WITHIN THE
DGZ. AREA OF POTENTIALLY SIG SNOW SHOULD OCCUR NEAR TWIN PORTS
FROM 12Z-15Z...AND AROUND 15Z-18Z OVER ARROWHEAD. PUSHED START
TIME ON ARROWHEAD BACK TO 12Z AS SNOW SHOULD NOT ARRIVE TIL MID
MORNING. TOUGH DECISION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE ADVISORY FOR DLH
VICINITY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW HRS
EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MELTING
OCCURS WITH BDRY LYR TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT.
WILL LEAVE ADVISORY FOR ARROWHEAD ALTHOUGH FAST MOVING NATURE OF
THERMAL LIFT MAY LIMIT AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. EXPECT TEMPS IN TWIN
PORTS AREA TO LOWER WITH EVAPO COOLING EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE AFTN HRS. ELSEWHERE WHATEVER BRIEF
BOUT OF RASN MAY OCCUR...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN.
INCREASING PGF ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GIVE INCREASING WINDS NEAR
TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PRESS PATTERN DEVELOPS AS UPPER
TROF DROPS INTO NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTHWARD FROM CTRL PLAINS TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE MN ZONES BY 12Z WITH A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS NWRN CORNER
OF CWA WHERE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION
COMBINES WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM MID LVL TROF.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS/CANADA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE REGION THEN PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAKING INTO OUR AREA. A MID WEEK SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BEING BRUSHED BY A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. WE KEPT SOME POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH INTO MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER
THE AREA AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER/NEAR THE NORTHLAND EARLY TO MID
WEEK...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING THE
NORTHLAND INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES
WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW.
HOWEVER...BOTH WOULD SUGGEST SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BECOME EVEN GREATER LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH VERSUS THE LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THE GFS
KEEPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WITH SNOW OR RAIN
GOING MUCH LONGER. WE HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
AN AREA OF RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TODAY. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER FOR ALL AREAS TO
MVFR AND EVEN IFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE RAP SUGGESTS LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BETWEEN
15-17Z.
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY...THEN WEAK TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
TURN TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 29 39 22 / 70 20 10 20
INL 39 25 37 16 / 50 40 20 20
BRD 52 31 41 22 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 47 31 43 24 / 50 10 20 20
ASX 44 31 41 24 / 90 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tonight:
Frontal boundaries will likely be the focus for most of the
convection tonight. A warm front extends from a weak low near OMA
through northern IL. A diffuse area of low pressure over southwest
KS is connected to the OMA low by a very weak cold front.
Strong and gusty southerly winds have pulled up the season`s first
large swath of gulf moisture into KS/MO as noted by 60ish dewpoints
while southwesterly h8 winds spread an elevated mixed layer across
KS and MO resulting in a moderately strong cap.The end result is the
warmest temperatures of the year with MLCAPEs around 2500 J/kg but
marginal 0-6km shear around 35 kts. Evening convective activity will
likely be closely tied to the IA warm front. Best severe threat will
reside over IA with isolated severe storms possible over northwest
MO mainly this evening. Large hail would be the most likely severe
threat. A h7 shortwave is progged to lift northeast through northern
KS/NE and activate this warm front. Last 4-5 runs of the HRRR has
consistently shown scattered convection popping up along this
boundary around 22z. The convection further south which the HRRR and
RAP develop over east central KS is a bit suspicious as it forms
within the well capped environment with no boundary nearby. Wouldn`t
be surprised if it actually form further west along the dryline over
central KS where some cu has recently formed. Prefer to limit the
evening convection to northwest and north central MO. Also have low
confidence in the NAM and GFS propagating an MCS southward into east
central KS and west central MO by 06Z. Overall, will concentrate
highest PoPs across northern MO and lower them south of the MO River.
Sunday-Sunday night:
A broad upper trough over the desert southwest is expected to lift
northeast on Sunday and enhance the downstream lift via
increasing/expanding upper level diffluence. This in turn will lead
to widespread convection with heavy rains likely. Scattered
convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and this plus
extensive low level cloud cover will make it difficult to realize the
moderate instability the soundings show. Should some breaks occur of
any meaningful length of time then we could tap into this instability
and give a boost to our severe threat. For now strong storms are
possible south of the MO River on Sunday with a minimal severe
threat. The main weather threat will be from heavy rains due to very
efficient deep, tropical-like convection, which could train during
the afternoon and early evening.
The true cold front currently lies form eastern ND through west
central SD which will reinforce the frontal boundary on Sunday. A
second and much deeper northern upper trough will push this front
southeast with strong cold air advection rushing in Sunday night.
Inspection of Bufr soundings suggest the rain could mix with snow
over parts of northwest MO late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night:
A very raw and blustery day with temperatures 20 degrees below
average. While the NAM had previously been discounted as being too
cold and generating several inches of snow the latest GFS and ECMWF
have been trending colder and also generating at least a rain/snow
mix. Started trending colder yesterday and continue doing so today.
Areas of light rain mixed with snow seems plausible if not likely
Monday morning. Will hold off on mentioning any snow amounts for now.
Very cold temperatures will settle in overnight Monday as skies
clear out. Will see sub-freezing temperatures everywhere with many
locations experiencing several hours of temperatures below 28F at
which water freezes inside most plants. Will be issuing headlines
eventually for Monday night/Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Tuesday-Saturday
After a chilly start Tuesday morning, temperatures will steadily
rebound Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs primarily in the 50s and
60s respectively. Model solutions vary greatly with regards to
timing, amplification/strength, and placement of the next upper
trough to affect the area Thursday or Friday. This provides
relatively high uncertainty to the expected weather during this
period, and likewise the degree of cooler weather to follow upon the
frontal passage. As for temperatures during the period, readings
should remain slightly below climatological normals for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Challenging forecast. Immediate forecast concern are the strong and
gusty southerly winds. Should lose the gusts after sunset and diurnal
mixing ceases.
Warm elevated mixed layer has overspread eastern KS/western MO and
will effectively inhibit convective development through tonight. Best
chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight will likely lie from far
northeast KS across northern MO and areas northward. A few
convective allowing models generate isolated convection late this
afternoon and early evening from east central KS into northwest MO
but confidence is low for it to form and then also reach the
terminals. Also have low confidence in 12z NAM and GFS developing a
MCS north of the terminals this evening and propagating southward
through eastern KS/west central MO. Believe the cap will be difficult
to break until the NE/IA cold front moves through the region Sunday
afternoon. There will be a much greater chance for rain after 18z
Sunday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TYPE SUNDAY
PRIMARY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.
WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONT CONTINUED TO PRESS SEWD INTO THE AFTN
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARLAN IA TO A LITTLE SE OF OLU AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH BETTER SFC COOLING LAGGED WELL TO THE NORTH. MOST
OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WIND SHIFT HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A SW
COMPONENT TO WIND THAT IT HAD COMBINED WITH MIXING TO LOWER MANY
SFC DWPTS INTO MID 50S OR LOWER...MAIN EXCEPTION THROUGH 20Z FROM
SE CORNER OF NEBR INTO SW IA. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP MIXED LAYER CIN
VALUES STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH IT WEAKENING IN CNTRL IA TOWARD NEBR
CITY PER SPC MESO PAGE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT FIRST OR AT LEAST
HIGHEST CONVECTION CHANCES WOULD BE IN IA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER THAN 18Z RAP AND ALSO 12Z 4KM WRF.
WITH DECENT...ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...DEEP SHEAR AND ML
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2K J/KG....CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND RISK EARLY PROBABLY SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SW THIS EVENING OR NORTH OF BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT LESS
CERTAIN WITH SOME HINTS BY TWO ABOVE SHORTER TERM MODELS
INDICATING A LULL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR NORTH OF OMAHA/LINCOLN BY 12Z. NE NEBR
COULD REMAIN DRY ALL NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO MID/LATE SUN MORNING
PER NAM...BUT INTRODUCED MODEST POPS TOWARD 12Z INCREASING INTO
CATEGORICAL MOST/ALL AREAS THEN TOWARD MIDDAY.
NAM HAD BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON COOLING AIRMASS AS PRECIP FELL NRN
ZONES...EXCEPT FAR NW...AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP COULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...KEPT
A R/S MIX IN ACROSS NERN NEBR. SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE SERN ZONES INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY AS H85 BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR SERN NEBR AND WOULD SUSPECT BEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD FOCUS TOWARD THAT AREA DUE TO LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. HOWEVER...SOME HINT AT A MID LVL FRONTO BAND OF PRECIP
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH THUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED/INCLUDED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE
DAY. MOST TEMPS STEADY/FALLING BUT IF PRECIP WOULD STAY OUT OF
SERN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY COULD SEE A FUTURE NEED FOR A
SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP THERE. WINDS OVER N AND W WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL CONVECTIVE THREAT/PRECIP TRENDS BEFORE THAT PASS
FIRST.
KEPT RAIN/SNOW MIX W/SNOW ON NW FRINGE MENTION IN FORECAST SUN
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTY AS GFS
ENDS BULK OF PRECIP MOST AREAS AS SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SOME WIND/CLOUDS PERSISTING...KEPT LOWS ON OR
ABOVE WARMER GUID VALUES SUN NIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDING
BACK INTO MONDAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE SERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST LOOKS DRY THEN INTO TUE AND WITH INCREASED MIXING ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
KEPT SLGT CHANCE POPS IN WED AFTN FAR NRN ZONES AS 12Z GFS/ECM
BROUGHT NEXT FRONT/TROUGH INTO THAT REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
READINGS SHOULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND IF TRENDS
PERSIST...COULD SEE A NEED FOR FURTHER RAISING IN LATER FORECASTS.
UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE IN THU/FRI PERIOD AS GFS CLOSES OF A COLD
UPPER TROUGH LOOKING DOWNRIGHT NASTY THU NIGHT NERN NEBR. WHILE
ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...IT TOO TRENDED COLDER. THUS WOULD
THINK SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION WAS STILL WARRANTED WED NGT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT NWRN ZONES AND EVEN EXTENDED MENTION INTO THU
MORNING. COULD FORESEE THIS THREAT BEING SHIFTED SE IF COLD
TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE.
SATURDAY DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS WERE MENTIONED PER MODEL BLEND.
HOWEVER...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS LEAD
TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. KOMA LOOKS TO HAVE
SOME CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER AFTER 00Z AS BETTER INSTABILITY
STRETCHES OUT ACROSS IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT IFR CIGS AND VSBY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
COMBINED WITH RAIN AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
146 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
STILL LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...TSTM CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...PCPN TYPE SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB
ONE JET STREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING TOWARD NRN BAJA CA
AND ANOTHER WAS PUNCHING EWD FROM ERN MT. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF
AROUND 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER ERN WA AND SRN BC WITH ANOTHER
SIMILAR AREA OF FALLS OVER CA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WORKING
ITS WAY NWD...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 11 C AS FAR NORTH AS
NORMAN OK.
SURFACE CHART AT 08Z SHOWED ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SRN SD TO
THE NORTHWEST OF KONL AND ANOTHER IN ERN CO. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WERE MOVING NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NRN LOW MOVES
ACROSS NRN IA TODAY.
RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS INDICATED SOME ECHOES ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES BUT AMOUNTS SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
TODAY...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST...BUT DID BUMP
HIGHS UP JUST A BIT SRN ZONES BASED ON LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. WE
STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND INTO SWRN IA. RECENT RUNS OF 13 KM RAP AND SOME OF THE
OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT. ML CAPE VALUES REACH
AS HIGH AS AROUND 2000 J/KG AND THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY THIS EVENING OVER SERN NE
AND SWRN IA.
PCPN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE SOME
ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS IS INDICATED. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
BANDING. MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF SERN ZONES BY MID
MORNING AS COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALSO...AS THE AIRMASS COOLS IN NERN NE...PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND
PROBABLY CHANCE TO SNOW BASED ON NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLOWLY FALLING ALL DAY SUNDAY. SNOW COULD SPREAD TOWARD
OMAHA AND LINCOLN BY LATE AFTN. FOR NOW...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
MOST AREA WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH.
PCPN WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT TO MAINLY LOWER AND MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
STILL LOOK FOR GENERALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. BUT PCPN
CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF NERN NE
THEN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.
MODEL ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DETAILS LATE NEXT WEEK
SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS TO ABOUT AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE BY
THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. KOMA LOOKS TO HAVE
SOME CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER AFTER 00Z AS BETTER INSTABILITY
STRTCHES OUT ACROSS IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT IFR CIGS AND VSBY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
COMBINED WITH RAIN AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
117 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SCNTL SD WILL KICK EAST THIS MORNING AND SEND
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE AIR COMING IN IS STILL
MILD AND RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING CALGARY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST THIS AFTN AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS OF ERN COLO AND EAST TOWARD
KOMA.
THE RESULT IS A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN NEB. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SOLID CANOPY OF CIRRUS DEVELOPS THIS
AFTN. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
BY 00Z TONIGHT K INDICES ARE AROUND 20C OR LESS IN THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTING TSTM CHANCES THIS AFTN ARE NIL. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE ECM...SREF AND GFS. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING
PILING UP MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY 06Z AND IT IS BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z THAT TSTMS COULD BEGIN APPROACHING THE FCST AREA FROM THE
NEB PANHANDLE. BY THIS TIME THE MOISTURE POOL IS ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE THROUGH INTERSTATE 80 AND AREAS SOUTH. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD APPEAR SMALL AND IN FACT WE WOULD PROBABLY SEE STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT FOLLOWS A MULTIMODEL APPROACH FOR
LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD BE DROPPING
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH A RAIN CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IN SHERIDAN COUNTY AROUND 09Z WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND 06Z NAM. THE POP AND QPF FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GEM...NAM...GFS
AND ECM. THE SREF WAS THE WETTEST SOLN AND DISCARDED FOR THIS
FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS POOLS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE ARCTIC AIR COOLS THE LOWER LAYERS CLOSE TO
SATURATION. FARTHER SOUTH...THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB
FOR RAIN. EVEN THE NEXT WETTEST MODEL...THE NAM...WAITS FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT BEFORE SATURATING BELOW 700 MB. ALAS...THE BEST
FORECAST WILL LIKELY COME FRONT THE RAP MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED
THE BEST THIS WINTER AND SPRING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS...HEADED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. STRONG
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS...WITH THE PRECIPITATION BAND IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND OR
WET SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALSO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS SUNDAY...BUT DON/T
FEEL COMFORTABLE RISING ANY FURTHER DUE TO THE EXPECTED OVERALL
WEAKENING/DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION BAND. BY SUNDAY
EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST
PART...AS DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS VIA A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM DROP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AS H85
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS PLUS. SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. CHILLY
CONDITIONS THEN FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A NICE RECOVERY...WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY RETURNING BACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
LATER IN THE WEEK...QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN DECENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE...WHILE THE GEM WOULD SUPPORT THE GFS/GEFS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ FOR
NOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ALL MODELS BRING IN MORE COLD AIR...AND
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL END ON CHILLY
NOTE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CONCERNS THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY ARE WITH INCREASE OF
CLOUDS...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDS WILL STAY
NORTHERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND STAY GUSTY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25KTS TO 30KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 40KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KOGA TO
KVTN. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY TO IFR OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWER CATEGORY CEILINGS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW BY MID MORNING FROM KOGA
TO KANW AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
OCCUR OVER KVTN BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...SO DROPPED THE VISIBILITY TO
IFR WITH -SN...ALTHOUGH COULD GET A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW
WITH LESSER VISIBILITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
ARE VERY LIGHT...JUST 20 TO 25 KT AT H850 IN ALL MODELS. SO FIRE
DANGER IS ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SPRING SO FAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY END AS A PERIOD
OF WET SNOW ON TUESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WHILE THE
LAKE BREEZE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES FURTHER INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS)
BRING A 50 KT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE STEADIEST LIFT FROM
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WATERTOWN.
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES JUST SOUTH OF THIS...WITH MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 12Z NAM/RGEM
GUIDANCE BRING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION BUT
FAR FROM A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...AS THE
INCREASING SSW FLOW LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER IN THE NIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY DOWNSLOPE FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER
TO ROCHESTER.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH
SHOULD END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY SW FLOW OF WARM
AIR. THIS FLOW SHOULD BOTH DOWNSLOPE AND WARM AIR IN NEARLY ALL
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SUPPORTS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTS ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH
THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS LIKELY TO PUSH 80
IN A FEW SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THE
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S...IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE A SUMMER NIGHT. MONDAY WILL START
ON A WARM NOTE AND TEMPS WILL RISE ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A RESTRICTING FACTOR ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS
WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING PWATS ACROSS WESTERN NY SHOULD SURGE
ABOVE AN INCH LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. WITH DECENT DYNAMICS AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY FEATURE STRONG WINDS MONDAY
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SOLID ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RAINFALL AND THE CONSIDERABLE WARMING/THAWING ON MONDAY WILL
GENERATE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HYDROLOGICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW...BUT THAT`S NOT
ALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A COATING TO ISOLATED AREAS WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO
THE 30S ON TUESDAY. READINGS WILL TUMBLE EVEN LOWER...INTO THE LOWER
20S WITH UPPER TEENS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A COMPACT BUBBLE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN WITH A ADVANTAGE OF MID
APRIL SUNSHINE. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BLANKET TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...EVEN TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND START TO THE WEEK...MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS A
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SLIGHTLY RIDGE UPPER PATTERN WILL PROTECT THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN AN
UPPER WAVE TRANSVERSING THE MID CONTINENT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS AND BRING AN OCCLUDED LOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. 12Z GFS IS SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER THAN 12Z
ECMWF PRECIP FIELD...BUT WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND SEE
HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN LLWS. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS TO
SOME AREAS...WITH THE STEADIEST SHOWERS AT ART LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
FRONT. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO INSTABILITY
ALOFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS TO MVFR
OR LOWER...BUT OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR LATE WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SSW FLOW
WHICH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK OF OVER A FOOT WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOW ALSO IN WOODED AREAS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE EVEN
WARMER THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL THE
SNOW PACK IN PLACE. INITIALLY...THIS WILL POSE THE RISK FOR RISES
IN CREEKS WHICH ARE FED BY SNOWMELT FROM THE TUG HILL.
BIGGER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
THE SNOW MELT COULD PUSH THE BLACK RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MMEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH MOST MEMBERS SUGGESTING A
CREST NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS CONTINUING TO EXTEND BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH TODAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
5H HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A WARM
AND PRIMARILY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S...UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE NORTHERN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WINDS WILL EASE...BUT A SEA BREEZE RESULTANT
WILL DRIVE WINDS TO 15 MPH ALONG THE BEACHES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENT SEA
BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTN...BUT HAVE KEPT POP AT SILENT AS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR WITHIN
THE SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER. STILL...ENHANCE CU IS LIKELY THIS
AFTN/EVE...BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS EXPECTED AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
BETTER DEWPOINT ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...AN
INCREASING LLJ WILL LIMIT TOTAL FOG POTENTIAL. INHERITED FORECAST
HAS PATCHY FOG...AND WILL LEAVE UNCHANGED FOR NOW. FOG IS UNLIKELY
TO BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER...AS MINS DROP ONLY INTO THE MID
50S...LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSSOVER TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY LATE
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST.
ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON BUT SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS A DIGGING
MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY BUT VEERING AROUND TO S TO SW BY
LATE MONDAY AND INCREASING UP TO 15 MPH OR SO AT THE SFC AND UP TO
30 TO 40 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE MID LEVELS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATER ON MONDAY WHEN WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO GREATER GULF MOISTURE.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM CLOSER TO A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON LATE AFTN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT
OVERALL BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE MON AND MORE SO ON TUES AS
COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MAIN FORCING TO
COME IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND
LARGER SCALE CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH SOME SHOWERS
FEEDING INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP
AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UP NEAR 60 OR ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUES AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S. DECENT
DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A STRONG LLJ...DEEPENING MID TO UPPER
TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHWRS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL WAIT TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CWA.
COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA BY TUES NIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HINTING AT A WEDGE
SIGNATURE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAVE LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME PERIODS
OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS IN STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT FOR WED THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH THE RESULTANT...A BIT MORE GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR FOG TOWARD
MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INLAND...OFFSET BY HIGHER WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND COULD
END UP BEING SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS INSTEAD OF FOG. COULD SEE A
BRIEF BOUT OF IFR RIGHT AT SUNRISE EITHER WAY. SUNDAY...ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
FROM A HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS
NORTHWARD TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-SHORE REGIONS WHERE AN AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE
WILL ADD 5 OR SO KTS AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
WIND. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
COAST AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT S-SE REMAINING 10-15 KTS OR BELOW KEEPING SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE AND BUILD
ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT. SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE MONDAY IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHES UP NEAR 25
KTS. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TUES WITH A
SLIGHT DROP AS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO EARLY
WED. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE
WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK. A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
N-NE WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
626 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE BEST INFLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS WELL
TO THE WEST. WE CAN GET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH NOT
MUCH RISK OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE. THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
HAS TRENDED THE HOURLY POP/WX AND SKY COVER IN THIS DIRECTION
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST TONIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD BUT IT IS
NOT. THE CONCERN IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET TO THE WEST. CONVECTION HAD FIRED ON THE HEAD OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST AND APPEARS THAT IT
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THE HEAD OF THE JET WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION
COULD FIRE IN THIS AREA AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS IS "ALL IN" ON THIS
SCENARIO AND PUTTING REALLY HIGH POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. I AM NOT AS SOLD ON THAT SOLUTION AND I AM LEANING MORE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE VERY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. I AM
NOT CONVINCED THE GFS IS COMPLETELY RIGHT BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE NAM TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE POPS. THE HRRR MODEL
KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION NORTH AS WELL. I WILL KEEP THE SLGHT CHC
FOR THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING NEAR 30MPH.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD
DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS WE DECOUPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX SITUATION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FOCUS OF THE
WEATHER FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 18Z-06Z MON-TUE. TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO. A STRONG 850MB JET WILL SETUP OVER INDIANA AND NW
OHIO ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN VARIOUS STATES UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
THE JET MAX EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THIS JET WITH THE
WARM FRONT IS CONCERNING. WHILE I THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NW OHIO ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND THE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ON MONDAY MORNING WITH ALL AREAS
FORECAST TO HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT ARE IMPRESSIVE. THE THERMAL FORCING
WILL BE STRONG ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...THE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN ANY TYPE OF
SEVERE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXCEPT FOR GENERAL THUNDER. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COULD MEAN
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -10C PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BUT MAY MIX
WITH RAIN DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF DOES NOT PAST EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL 06Z WED. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TOUGH. WE WILL
SEE A NON-DIURNAL TREND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HE HIGH THAT HELPED TO PUSH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WED BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER THRU THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU
NIGHT. AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER MORE BY FRI SO THE SITUATION BY
THEN IS MORE IN QUESTION AND EVEN MORE SO BY SAT. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY FRI AND
SAT...ALTHOUGH SAT COULD CHANGE IF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THRU AND
TURNS THE FLOW OFF OF THE CHILLY LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES SO CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ALTHOUGH CAK...YNG AND ERI MAY
HOLD OFF ON THE MVFR. A FEW SHRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING AS DYING CONVECTION UPSTREAM WASHES OUT AROUND THE LAKE ERIE
AREA. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT MAINLY
WHERE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MVFR SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MIDDAY AS THE AIR MASS MIXES MORE...THUS ALLOWING THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND THE MVFR CIGS TO TRY AND LIFT SOME.
SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN SOME WITH
NIGHTFALL THEN PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...ERI WILL LIKELY
PICK BACK UP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NIGHT DUE TO DOWN SLOPE
ACCELERATION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO MON...BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT PASSES LATER MON
WHILE VEERING TO THE NW THEN INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS MON
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AT THE SHORELINE MAY BE NEAR 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES MON MORNING BUT THE COLDER WATER TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR LATE SUN NIGHT AND
MON AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON SUN. THE HIGH OVER THE LAKE TUE NIGHT
WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKES WED LEADING TO E TO NE WINDS ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WED INTO THU.
THE STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE CONTINUED BREAKUP OF THE ICE FIELDS ON THE LAKE BUT MAY ALSO
CAUSE OPEN TRACKS TO CLOSE ON THE NE PART OF THE LAKE AS THE ICE
SHIFTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...GARNET/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST TONIGHT APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD BUT IT IS
NOT. THE CONCERN IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET TO THE WEST. CONVECTION HAD FIRED ON THE HEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST AND APPEARS THAT IT WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THE HEAD OF THE JET WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION COULD
FIRE IN THIS AREA AND MOVE EAST. THE GFS IS "ALL IN" ON THIS
SCENARIO AND PUTTING REALLY HIGH POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. I AM NOT AS SOLD ON THAT SOLUTION AND I AM LEANING MORE
TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE VERY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. I AM
NOT CONVINCED THE GFS IS COMPLETELY RIGHT BUT I AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE NAM TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THE POPS. THE HRRR MODEL
KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION NORTH AS WELL. I WILL KEEP THE SLGHT CHC FOR
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING NEAR 30MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS WE DECOUPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX SITUATION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FOCUS OF THE
WEATHER FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 18Z-06Z MON-TUE. TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO. A STRONG 850MB JET WILL SETUP OVER INDIANA AND NW
OHIO ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN VARIOUS STATES UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
THE JET MAX EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THIS JET WITH THE
WARM FRONT IS CONCERNING. WHILE I THINK THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE ENOUGH FOR ME TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NW OHIO ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND THE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ON MONDAY MORNING WITH ALL AREAS
FORECAST TO HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT ARE IMPRESSIVE. THE THERMAL FORCING
WILL BE STRONG ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...THE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN ANY TYPE OF
SEVERE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXCEPT FOR GENERAL THUNDER. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY COULD MEAN
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -10C PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BUT MAY MIX
WITH RAIN DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF DOES NOT PAST EAST OF THE
AREA UNTIL 06Z WED. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TOUGH. WE WILL
SEE A NON-DIURNAL TREND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HE HIGH THAT HELPED TO PUSH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WED BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER THRU THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN DRY CONDITIONS INTO THU
NIGHT. AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER MORE BY FRI SO THE SITUATION BY
THEN IS MORE IN QUESTION AND EVEN MORE SO BY SAT. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY FRI AND
SAT...ALTHOUGH SAT COULD CHANGE IF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THRU AND
TURNS THE FLOW OFF OF THE CHILLY LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES SO CIGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ALTHOUGH CAK...YNG AND ERI MAY
HOLD OFF ON THE MVFR. A FEW SHRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING AS DYING CONVECTION UPSTREAM WASHES OUT AROUND THE LAKE ERIE
AREA. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE NIGHT MAINLY
WHERE THE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MVFR SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MIDDAY AS THE AIRMASS MIXES MORE...THUS ALLOWING THE
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND THE MVFR CIGS TO TRY AND LIFT SOME.
SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN SOME WITH
NIGHTFALL THEN PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...ERI WILL LIKELY
PICK BACK UP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
ACCELERATION.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO MON...BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT PASSES LATER MON
WHILE VEERING TO THE NW THEN INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS MON
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE LAKE. WINDS AT THE SHORELINE MAY BE NEAR 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES MON MORNING BUT THE COLDER WARER TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR LATE SUN NIGHT AND
MON AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON SUN. THE HIGH OVER THE LAKE TUE NIGHT
WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKES WED LEADING TO E TO NE WINDS ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS WED INTO THU.
THE STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE CONTINUED BREAKUP OF THE ICE FIELDS ON THE LAKE BUT MAY ALSO
CAUSE OPEN TRACKS TO CLOSE ON THE NE PART OF THE LAKE AS THE ICE
SHIFTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. NEXT
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT AN UPDATE FOR SMALL POPS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CWA. BELIEVE
SOME PCPN OUT OF POPCORN CU FIELD COULD MEASURE BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MORE LIKE A HIT OR MISS AND VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR AND NAM
MODELS SHOW SMALL AREAS OF QPF WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING NORTH AND
DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE SUNSET. UPDATED DEWPOINTS AS THERE IS A 10
DEGREES GRADIENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATED SKIES AS EXPECTED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NOON...BECOMING STEADY OR
DECREASING SOME DUE TO MIXING...THEN RECOVERING BY SUNSET. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HI RES MODELS PICK UP ON SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TAKE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY INACTIVE PRECIP
WISE...DESPITE WEAK WARM FRONT...DUE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. EXCEPTION MAY BE ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHEAST FLOW UPSLOPE
FACTOR MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A SHOWER. WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL PERIOD BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON THE MASS FIELDS. TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THIS
HIGH HAS ALLOWED FIRST SIGNIFICANT WARM SEASON EARLY MORNING FOG TO
FORM IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS...BUT WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH
HEATING AND MIXING. UNTIL THEN...THERE ARE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW
STRATUS SHOWING UP IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE SOME MID CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. SO WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR HOW MUCH EARLY MORNING FOG FORMS
AND IS MAINTAINED. EXPECT ENOUGH STARS...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS NORTHEAST AND SOUTH...TO HAVE RIVER AND VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE BURNING OFF.
IN ANY CASE...WITH LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR
WARM FRONT...ONLY SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
TODAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NOT PLAY ON INSTABILITY WITH
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE...NOR WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...FOR ANY
POPS TODAY. WILL KEEP DRY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REACH
NEAR 80 IN MANY AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHERLY BREEZES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS FOG FORMATION AND A MILD NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODELS
ARE HOLDING TRUE TO THE PATTERN FOR SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS NOW.
FIGURE THERE WILL END UP BEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT THE
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL HAVE TO GIVE A BROAD TIME RANGE
FOR THE POPS...ALTHOUGH THE 15Z START TIME OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
WITH THE LOW END POPS MAY PROVE TO BE A TAD QUICK. MODELS ARE STILL
ON BOARD WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT
AFTER PASSAGE WHICH WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALIVE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL PEAK IN THE
60-70KT RANGE MONDAY EVENING POSING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE...500MB HEIGHTS DROP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVING IN. EXPECTING A MUCH COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GROWING SEASON GRADUALLY GET GOING. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SE STATES AND THEN
MOVING UP THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCT THUNDER
WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME INSTABILITY...BUT NOT GREAT.
LOW QUICKLY MOVES UP FRONT AND CONTINUES HIGH POPS OVER THE AREA.
THEN MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A LITTLE
SNOW BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT...NOTICEABLE IN DEWPOINT FIELDS SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WARM SECTOR..SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...A CU FIELD IS BUILDING AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION. CODED A
BKN DECK AROUND 3500 FEET SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY AFFECTING
BKW. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS
DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE CU FIELD AND VERY FEW AND
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUT OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IF ANY.
EXPECT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING SUNDAY. CODED THIS
FEATURE IN THE EXPECTED PART OF TAF. HIT AND MISS PCPN PRESENT LOW
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TAF AT THIS POINT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH WIND INCREASING ALOFT OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LESS FOG FORMATION
EXCEPT OVER SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS IF THEY RECEIVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW PER LAV AND OTHER GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF EITHER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OCCURRENCE OF RIVER AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD MATERIALIZE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
128 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL CHANGE TO WEST AND NORTH ON SUNDAY. A
DRYLINE WILL BRING STRONG WEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING INTO WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND PART OF CENTRAL OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT IN CENTAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/
UPDATE...
VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS MORNING BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG AT THE
MOMENT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH FARTHER INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING
VERY DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND THIS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CURRENT RED FLAG AREA APPEARS OK.
NAM12/GFS DO VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY...AS VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST AREA FOR
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SPREADING THROUGH TX INTO SE OK THIS MORNING MAY
SPREAD INTO ERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING... BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT LATER TODAY. BRISK SOUTH WINDS WWILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
AREAWIDE. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WRN OK LATE AFTN...BUT PROB TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST SLY FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KS. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK SOUTHWEST
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPS...AND LOW RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
WILL GO AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG WARNING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MIGHT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AMPLIFYING LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE NW
CORNER OF THE FA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT ON SUNDAY. LEAD SRN BRANCH
S/W TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE PUSHING EASTWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL OK. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK INTO NWRN OK LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBILITY OF
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. COLD NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FREEZE/FROST ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE FA.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 83 39 48 / 10 50 40 30
HOBART OK 65 83 38 52 / 20 20 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 89 40 53 / 10 20 20 10
GAGE OK 58 72 34 49 / 20 20 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 65 75 35 47 / 10 70 40 40
DURANT OK 65 76 44 52 / 10 50 60 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ004>032-034-035-038>043-046>048.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-
009>011-014-015-021-033-034-036.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ021>023-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
&&
$$
06/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS MORNING BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG AT THE
MOMENT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH FARTHER INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING
VERY DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND THIS APPEARS
OVERDONE. CURRENT RED FLAG AREA APPEARS OK.
NAM12/GFS DO VERY LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY ATTEMPT TO FORM.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FOR SUNDAY...AS VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST AREA FOR
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SPREADING THROUGH TX INTO SE OK THIS MORNING MAY
SPREAD INTO ERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING... BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT LATER TODAY. BRISK SOUTH WINDS WWILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
AREAWIDE. ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE WRN OK LATE AFTN...BUT PROB TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOIST SLY FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KS. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK SOUTHWEST
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPS...AND LOW RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
WILL GO AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG WARNING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
MIGHT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AMPLIFYING LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE NW
CORNER OF THE FA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT ON SUNDAY. LEAD SRN BRANCH
S/W TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE PUSHING EASTWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL OK. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESP IN EASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK INTO NWRN OK LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBILITY OF
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. COLD NIGHT IN STORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FREEZE/FROST ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE FA.
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 65 83 39 / 10 10 50 40
HOBART OK 87 65 83 38 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 67 89 40 / 10 10 20 20
GAGE OK 91 58 72 34 / 20 20 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 85 65 75 35 / 10 10 70 40
DURANT OK 79 65 76 44 / 10 10 50 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-
009>011-014-015-021-033-034-036.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ021>023-033>038-044.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation forecast below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Intensifying surface low pressure over western Kansas and the
Oklahoma Panhandle will result in breezy to windy southwest flow
at TAF sites over southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. Upper
level disturbances moving into the area from Mexico will continue
to provided associated high cloudiness. VFR conditions will
persist through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
More warm and dry weather today, with a canopy of high clouds still
parading across the area ahead of Sunday`s system (currently
located over California). Critical fire weather concerns continue
primarily across Southeast New Mexico and its bordering Texas
counties today, with potentially widespread critical conditions on
Sunday. For more information, please see the fire weather
discussion below. Similar to yesterday, afternoon high
temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for
most of the area. A sharpening lee surface trough this afternoon
will allow the dry line to mix to the eastern edges of the CWA,
roughly along a Snyder-Big Lake-Sanderson line. While convective
development is possible along and east of the dry line (where
better moisture resides), the cap remains strong with around
100-200 j/kg CIN and have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast
for these areas.
Models are also attempting to develop showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon over the higher terrain of Mexico as a subtle
shortwave trough traverses Chihuahua. The NAM, GFS, and RUC all
develop QPF this afternoon and evening from Culberson County into
the Marfa Plateau as a result of this activity moving northeast.
Forecast soundings do indicate top down moistening across
southwest Texas, but still maintain rather large surface
temperature-dew point spreads (30-40 degrees). If anything
actually does make it into Texas (and confidence is not high that
it will), a very dry sub cloud layer makes virga with localized
gusty winds and occasional lightning seem the more likely outcome.
The more noticeable effect of the sharpening surface trough will be
an increase in surface winds today, with gusty southwest winds 15-25
MPH across lower elevations and higher speeds across higher terrain.
Expect windy conditions again Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses
the region, with height falls across the area producing slightly
cooler temperatures. As this trough swings across the area, it will send a
rather potent cold front through the area Sunday night. Expect the
front to push through the entire area by midday Monday.
A very tight pressure gradient (5 mb/50 miles) associated with
this front will produce possible wind advisory criteria (winds
25-35 MPH) behind the front mainly north of I-20. Given a
favorable northeast direction with these winds, a high wind
warning may also be needed for the Guadalupe Mountains (including
Guadalupe Pass). Blowing dust will be a concern with the winds
along and behind the front. Strongest winds look to materialize
between 10Z and 18Z on Monday morning. A secondary wave will dive south
Monday afternoon and, despite sufficient lift, the air over the
forecast area looks too moisture starved (PWATs around 0.3 in over
the northern Permian Basin) to support any of the precip models
are generating over the northern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures will also be much colder behind Sunday`s front with the
potential for a late season freeze on Tuesday morning in the
mountains and northern Permian Basin. Areas along and north of I-20
will need to continue to monitor the forecast for issuance of any
freeze watches or warnings. Shortwave ridging builds across Texas
and New Mexico by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm back to
near seasonal normals. The ECMWF and GFS are indicating a more
active pattern again heading into next weekend, but this far out
have different solutions. Kept the forecast dry into next weekend.
FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting another day of very dry air over much of the region with
minimum RH below 15 percent west of a dryline. As a surface low
moves over the Panhandle today should reach or exceed 20ft winds of
20 mph across SE NM... Guadalupe Mtns... Van Horn region... portions
of the Upper Trans Pecos and NW Permian Basin. Will update the Red
Flag Warning to include all of these locations. A few thunderstorms
possible this afternoon/evening across the Marfa Plateau... these
could be dry storms. Very dry air will spread across all of the
region Sunday as a west wind sweeps across the area. Minimum RH 10
percent or less. As the pressure gradient tightens 20ft winds will
exceed 20 mph over much of the area. Will continue the Fire Weather
Watch Sunday for all of W TX and SE NM. A strong cold front will
blow through the area Sunday night ending fire weather concerns for
a few days.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...
Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.
RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
54 Corridor.
&&
$$
03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1259 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAS
REINFORCED A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA TO GRANT COUNTY
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE 70S/50S WHILE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
THE FRONT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS ARE STUCK IN THE 40S.
THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE...BUT
THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
FIRING...BUT AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE 12.16Z RAP SHOWING AROUND
2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50KTS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORM MODE. THE WIND SHEAR WILL
MAINLY BE UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE WEST...SO NOT MUCH
OF A TORNADO THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHTLINE WINDS THIS EVENING
THOUGH THAT TRANSITION MAY OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH IN EAST CENTRAL
IOWA/NW ILLINOIS. SO...BASED ON THIS FORECAST...EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SMALLER
AREA OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THE 12.05Z
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ABOUT THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THE ACTION
AROUND OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR AND THE
12.00Z HI-RES ARW IS TO MOVE THE ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT EAST AS
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING TOWARD
THESE MESO MODELS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AT LEAST AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES BY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AS THE REGION GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FOR A
WHILE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THROUGH WILL THEN
START TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF FORCING PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH
THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO THE WEAK FRONT THAT GETS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BY THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY. THE 12.00Z NAM SHOWS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE PRODUCING BETWEEN 2 AND 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE INTO AND OVER THIS FRONT. THE HI-RES ARW SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND
THUS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT STORMS AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER. APPEARS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS TO THE BE THE
STRONGEST OF ALL THE WAVES. IN ADDITION TO THE FORCING FROM THE
WAVE ITSELF...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME JET DYNAMICS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET COMING IN
WITH THE WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET AXIS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF 2 TO 6 UBAR/S OF
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE 295K SURFACE INTO AND OVER
THE FRONT. THIS PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW 75 TO 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FORCING STARTS TO MOVE PAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT COMES
IN AT THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE UP COMING WEEK. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ENERGY MOVING
ON TO THE SOUTHWEST CANADIAN SHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TUESDAY. THE
12.00Z ECMWF THEN TAKES THIS WAVE EAST IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THE
12.00Z GFS AND THE GEM SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GFS CLOSING THIS LOW OFF WHILE THE GEM KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN SYSTEM. ALL THE MODELS THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH IS
GOOD TIMING CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. FOR
NOW...WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS WHICH PRIMARILY
HAVE 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES AT NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THOUGH MOST OF
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME 2-3KFT CEILINGS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. SOME RAIN
COULD GET INTO LSE THIS EVENING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED AT RST.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH