Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/11/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014
CLOUD BAND CROSSING NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THE PRESENT TIME
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK SHEAR...
LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS HAS MANAGED TO GENERATE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NERN WELD...LOGAN...NRN WASHINGTON...
SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE
YET TO SEE ANY OF THIS PRECIP COLLECTED IN RAIN GAUGES OUT THERE.
HOWEVER BASED ON ITS CURRENT REFLECTIVITY...THE STRONGEST CELL
NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY COULD BE PUTTING
DOWN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO LONGER
EXPECT ANY THUNDER/LIGHTNING REST OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS NEXT HOUR
OR SO. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENT TO
OVERNIGHT SKYCOVER AND DOWNLOADED RUC WINDS IN THE WIND GRIDS
MAINLY TO BETTER REFLECT THE CLOCKWISE TURN IN WIND DIRECTION IN
THE GREATER DENVER METRO AREA NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WYOMING WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO CWFA. SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES. APPEARS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS
HIGH BASED. WEB CAMS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.
WESTERLY WINDS A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATING SOME CAPE ACROSS MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG. NO CAPE
YET FAR EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING INTO NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...WITH THE TAIL END TREKING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE MOST OF PLAINS THIS EVENING AS
WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WAVE. LATEST
RAP GENERATES SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF GREELEY AND
DENVER...AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF
THE WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME THUNDER AS CAPE VALUES OF
200-300 J/KG EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIFT. WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS WELL WITH WEAK OROGRAPHICS. THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. SUBSIDENCE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AIDING IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMUP. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. AIRMASS LOOKS
DRY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. FIRE DANGER TO BECOME
ELEVATED AGAIN WITH HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE TEENS. BUT WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL THE
POTENTIAL SNOW STORM FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ONE LAST
MILD DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.
LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER AND SHOWS MORE
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL PLENTY OF COLD AIR
SOUTH WITH IT. THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY
WITH THIS STORM WHICH SHOULD HELP PRODUCE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. ECMWF
IS SHOWING .75 TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
HIGHER TOTALS IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS IN PLACES DUE TO
UPSLOPE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW. THE HEAVY
WET SNOW COULD POSE PROBLEMS TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW.
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES VERSUS A WEAK OPEN TROUGH AND DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REST OF TONIGHT AT DENVER AREA
TERMINALS WITH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER PASSAGE
OF A WEAK WEATHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MAIN CHANGE TO TERMINAL FCSTS WILL BE TO TURN SFC WINDS
CLOCKWISE AT DIA AND APA FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SPEEDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER 12 KTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
258 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...THE WAVE CLOUD DID INDEED SHIFT EASTWARD ALTHOUGH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED IN...BUT UNDER INCREASED
SUN TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO THE 70S. SOME CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY WENT
WITH THE 18Z RAP MODEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT ON THE
PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AND/OR FOG BEHIND THIS
BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.
THE FLOW QUICKLY COMES AROUND TO SOUTHEAST ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW
WITH PERHAPS A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE FORMING ALTHOUGH WINDS BY LATE
IN THE DAY MAY WELL GO BACK TO WESTERLY AGAIN. COOLER BY ABOUT 6
TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW ON THE PLAINS BUT ABOUT THE SAME IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT IS SHALLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
HELP FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. KEPT THE CHANCE OF THESE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE
WAVE FRIDAY WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD. A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH WYOMING SATURDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. SO
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY.
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL BRING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NOT ANY WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS...SO EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE SPORADIC THEN THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON ALHTOUGH GENERALLY WESTERLY. SHOULD GO TO LIGHT FLOW
WITH DRAINAGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SHIFTS THE
WINDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THEN THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING...MAYBE FORMING A WEAK
DENVER CYLONE THAT COULD MESS UP SOME OF THE TAF WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...SZOKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WAVE CLOUD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED THIS
MORNING SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO BRING IN MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS SLOW THE RISE IN TEMPERATURE. BASED ON THE
GOESR SYNTHETIC IMAGERY FROM THE NSSL WRF AND NAM NEST THE MAIN
WAVE CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AS OFTEN HAPPENS WENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUDINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS IT IS QUITE SUNNY UP
THERE RIGHT NOW WITH MAIN ACTION THE WAVE CLOUD. CLOUDINESS IN THE
GRIDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST SYNTHETIC IMAGERY AND HRRR FORECASTS SO
CUT BACK ON THIS AS WELL. BELIEVE TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL
EVENTUALLY WARM UP TO CLOSE TO THE LEVELS THAT WERE IN THE GRIDS
AS WE GET MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON SO MAINLY DELAYED SOME OF THAT
WARMING.
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS IDEA OF TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE PLAINS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...MOVING INTO DIA
AREA AROUND 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK WINDS IN
THE NORMAL SPOTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT
TIMES. HRRR SIMULATIONS DOING A DECENT JOB KEEPING THE WINDS IN
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH 15 MINUTE OUTPUT EVEN
DEPICTING THE OCCASIONAL FLOW REVERSAL BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW
SPOTS. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS HEATING PROGRESSES
TODAY WITH MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD WESTERLIES ACROSS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST HOISTING A
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE
MARGINAL WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ROUGHLY A KGXY TO KAKO LINE
BEING THE MOST FAVORED. REGARDING CLOUDS AND WEATHER CIRA
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOING A NICE JOB WITH THE LEE WAVE
CLOUD THIS MORNING...HOLDING ONTO IT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME WEAK QG LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST THIS
EVENING IF NOT A BIT LONGER. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE THAT IS EXPECTED BUT A STRAY HIGH-BASED SHOWER IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. PRESENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 06-07Z AT THE NORTHERN BORDER...DENVER AROUND 09Z
AND SOUTHERN CWA BY END OF PERIOD APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM...WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THU AS A WK FNT
AFFECTS NERN CO. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO THERE
IS SOME LIMITED CAPE FM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP IN
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS A WK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW TRACKS ACROSS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL COOL
READINGS BACK INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.
ON FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NERN CO. BY SAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FM THE NWRN US WHICH WILL LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
OVER NRN CO. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY AFTN AND
COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. AFTN
HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NERN CO.
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. IN
ADDITION A STG CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO SAT NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW THRU THE DAY ON SUN. MEANWHILE SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT
MID LVL QG ASCENT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL. LATEST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z SUN.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MTN AREAS. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD SEE SOME DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER WRM GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO ROADS.
BY MON THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE.
AVIATION...LITTLE OF CONCERN REGARDING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LOWER
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES AFTER AROUND 09Z OR SO WHICH
COULD LAST INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS AS USUAL ARE
INTERESTING. DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK/ROTOR EVENT IMPACTING
KBJC WITH KAPA AND KDEN EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY NORMAL DRAINAGE
FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MORE GENERAL BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN GOING TO DRAINAGE AFTER DARK. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST AROUND 09Z BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...SZOKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
442 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK WINDS IN
THE NORMAL SPOTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT
TIMES. HRRR SIMULATIONS DOING A DECENT JOB KEEPING THE WINDS IN
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH 15 MINUTE OUTPUT EVEN
DEPICTING THE OCCASIONAL FLOW REVERSAL BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW
SPOTS. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS HEATING PROGRESSES
TODAY WITH MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD WESTERLIES ACROSS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST HOISTING A
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE
MARGINAL WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ROUGHLY A KGXY TO KAKO LINE
BEING THE MOST FAVORED. REGARDING CLOUDS AND WEATHER CIRA
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOING A NICE JOB WITH THE LEE WAVE
CLOUD THIS MORNING...HOLDING ONTO IT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME WEAK QG LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST THIS
EVENING IF NOT A BIT LONGER. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE THAT IS EXPECTED BUT A STRAY HIGH-BASED SHOWER IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. PRESENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 06-07Z AT THE NORTHERN BORDER...DENVER AROUND 09Z
AND SOUTHERN CWA BY END OF PERIOD APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THU AS A WK FNT
AFFECTS NERN CO. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO THERE
IS SOME LIMITED CAPE FM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP IN
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS A WK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW TRACKS ACROSS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL COOL
READINGS BACK INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.
ON FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NERN CO. BY SAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FM THE NWRN US WHICH WILL LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
OVER NRN CO. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY AFTN AND
COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. AFTN
HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NERN CO.
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. IN
ADDITION A STG CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO SAT NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW THRU THE DAY ON SUN. MEANWHILE SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT
MID LVL QG ASCENT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL. LATEST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z SUN.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MTN AREAS. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD SEE SOME DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER WRM GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO ROADS.
BY MON THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...LITTLE OF CONCERN REGARDING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LOWER
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES AFTER AROUND 09Z OR SO WHICH
COULD LAST INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS AS USUAL ARE
INTERESTING. DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK/ROTOR EVENT IMPACTING
KBJC WITH KAPA AND KDEN EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY NORMAL DRAINAGE
FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MORE GENERAL BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN GOING TO DRAINAGE AFTER DARK. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST AROUND 09Z BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEEKEND`S WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST LATE MONDAY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RAP MOISTURE ANALYSIS.
TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND LAMP
DATA SET.
A SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NW FLOW...AND DEEP MIXING. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF A SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS LIKELY ALONG
THE N SHORE OF LI.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD POP THE FAIR WX CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME CU QUICKLY DISSIPATES WITH SKC TNGT. THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS WILL GO CALM IN MOST SPOTS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WENT BLW THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
READING IN THE TEENS IN THE PINE BARRENS AT KFOK.
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ACROSS LI AND CSTL CT. SLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
BRISK IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS AS SEA BREEZE FLOW AUGMENTS THE WIND
FIELDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL AMBROSE JET WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20KT KJFK.
THE SUNSHINE LIKELY TO BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT AS HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. DPROG/DT HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC WAVE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN VERY ROBUST WITH ITS INCH PLUS PCPN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF AND 12/00 GEFS SUGGESTS THESE
ARE OUTLIERS WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PCPN. 00Z CANADIAN IS
RATHER DRY FOR FRIDAY AND THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE HELD POPS AT 50% DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
GONE TO 60% FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. IN SUMMARY...FORESEE THIS A
CLOUDY DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.
HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF GFS MOS FOR FRIDAY TEMPS...LOWERING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. STILL
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND LOOKS TRANQUIL. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC WAVE. THIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z GEFS SUGGESTS KEEPING A 30 POP
EASTERN ZONES FOR SAT AM. WAA ADVECTION ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH AND
WESTERN REGIONS SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...SO INTRODUCED POPS THEN...INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GEFS SUPPORTS A RAIN EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE EAST COAST FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW THE EARLY MORNING LUNAR ECLIPSE ON TUESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF...WE`D HAVE SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN DILEMMA WILL BE WHAT SIDE OF
310 MAGNETIC THAT WINDS WILL RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE JUST TO THE RIGHT THIS MORNING...WINDS MAY BACK JUST TO THE
LEFT OF 310 BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT.
CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG MAGNETIC FROM
17-21Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH
20 KT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AFT 18-19Z. WINDS MAY
BACK TO 290/280 DEG MAGNETIC BETWEEN 17-21Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG MAGNETIC FROM
17-20Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.THU...VFR. S-SW AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERESTIMATING THE SWELL ON THE OCEAN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE ABV THE DATA THRU THU. THIS KEEPS THE OCEAN AT
SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVY ACCORDINGLY.
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS...WINDS TODAY MAINLY AROUND 20KT.
ALTHOUGH AN OCNL GUST TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THIS IS FCST TO NOT BE FREQ ENOUGH TO MEET ADVY
CRITERIA. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU HOWEVER AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (25-30 KT GUSTS) THU NGT VEERS
TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AM. WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
WINDS FOR SATURDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
5-6FT SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TODAY AND WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION
OCCUR. HAVE ISSUED AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU THU. LIGHT PCPN...LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NGT. SATURDAY. POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS FORESEEN
THOUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
737 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEEKEND`S WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST LATE MONDAY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11Z - SKC OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS NOW EAST OF
KMTP. UPDATED CLOUD COVER TO SCT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTN BASED ON
LATEST RAP MOISTURE ANALYSIS. TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND LAMP DATA SET.
A SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NW FLOW...AND DEEP MIXING. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF A SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS LIKELY ALONG
THE N SHORE OF LI.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD POP THE FAIR WX CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME CU QUICKLY DISSIPATES WITH SKC TNGT. THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS WILL GO CALM IN MOST SPOTS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WENT BLW THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
READING IN THE TEENS IN THE PINE BARRENS AT KFOK.
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ACROSS LI AND CSTL CT. SLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
BRISK IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS AS SEA BREEZE FLOW AUGMENTS THE WIND
FIELDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL AMBROSE JET WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20KT KJFK.
THE SUNSHINE LIKELY TO BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT AS HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. DPROG/DT HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC WAVE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN VERY ROBUST WITH ITS INCH PLUS PCPN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF AND 12/00 GEFS SUGGESTS THESE
ARE OUTLIERS WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PCPN. 00Z CANADIAN IS
RATHER DRY FOR FRIDAY AND THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE HELD POPS AT 50% DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
GONE TO 60% FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. IN SUMMARY...FORESEE THIS A
CLOUDY DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.
HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF GFS MOS FOR FRIDAY TEMPS...LOWERING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. STILL
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND LOOKS TRANQUIL. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC WAVE. THIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z GEFS SUGGESTS KEEPING A 30 POP
EASTERN ZONES FOR SAT AM. WAA ADVECTION ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH AND
WESTERN REGIONS SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...SO INTRODUCED POPS THEN...INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GEFS SUPPORTS A RAIN EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE EAST COAST FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW THE EARLY MORNING LUNAR ECLIPSE ON TUESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF...WE`D HAVE SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY 14/15Z...AND 15 TO 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER
SUNDOWN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18-21Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK MORE TO 290/280 DEG BETWEEN 18-21Z.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18021Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.THU...VFR. S-SW AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERESTIMATING THE SWELL ON THE OCEAN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE ABV THE DATA THRU THU. THIS KEEPS THE OCEAN AT
SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVY ACCORDINGLY.
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS...WINDS TODAY MAINLY AROUND 20KT.
ALTHOUGH AN OCNL GUST TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THIS IS FCST TO NOT BE FREQ ENOUGH TO MEET ADVY
CRITERIA. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU HOWEVER AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (25-30 KT GUSTS) THU NGT VEERS
TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AM. WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
WINDS FOR SATURDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
5-6FT SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TODAY AND WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION
OCCUR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU THU. LIGHT PCPN...LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NGT. SATURDAY. POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS FORESEEN
THOUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
714 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEEKEND`S WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST LATE MONDAY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11Z - SKC OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS NOW EAST OF
KMTP. UPDATED CLOUD COVER TO SCT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTN BASED ON
LATEST RAP MOISTURE ANALYSIS. TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND LAMP DATA SET.
A SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NW FLOW...AND DEEP MIXING. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF A SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS LIKELY ALONG
THE N SHORE OF LI.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD POP THE FAIR WX CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME CU QUICKLY DISSIPATES WITH SKC TNGT. THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS WILL GO CALM IN MOST SPOTS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WENT BLW THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
READING IN THE TEENS IN THE PINE BARRENS AT KFOK.
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ACROSS LI AND CSTL CT. SLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
BRISK IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS AS SEA BREEZE FLOW AUGMENTS THE WIND
FIELDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL AMBROSE JET WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20KT KJFK.
THE SUNSHINE LIKELY TO BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT AS HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. DPROG/DT HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC WAVE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN VERY ROBUST WITH ITS INCH PLUS PCPN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF AND 12/00 GEFS SUGGESTS THESE
ARE OUTLIERS WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PCPN. 00Z CANADIAN IS
RATHER DRY FOR FRIDAY AND THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE HELD POPS AT 50% DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
GONE TO 60% FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. IN SUMMARY...FORESEE THIS A
CLOUDY DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.
HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF GFS MOS FOR FRIDAY TEMPS...LOWERING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. STILL
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND LOOKS TRANQUIL. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC WAVE. THIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z GEFS SUGGESTS KEEPING A 30 POP
EASTERN ZONES FOR SAT AM. WAA ADVECTION ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH AND
WESTERN REGIONS SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...SO INTRODUCED POPS THEN...INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GEFS SUPPORTS A RAIN EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE EAST COAST FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW THE EARLY MORNING LUNAR ECLIPSE ON TUESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF...WE`D HAVE SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING...AND 15 TO
20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CALM AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18-21Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK MORE TO 290/280 DEG BETWEEN 18-21Z.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18021Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.THU...VFR. S-SW AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERESTIMATING THE SWELL ON THE OCEAN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE ABV THE DATA THRU THU. THIS KEEPS THE OCEAN AT
SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVY ACCORDINGLY.
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS...WINDS TODAY MAINLY AROUND 20KT.
ALTHOUGH AN OCNL GUST TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THIS IS FCST TO NOT BE FREQ ENOUGH TO MEET ADVY
CRITERIA. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU HOWEVER AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (25-30 KT GUSTS) THU NGT VEERS
TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AM. WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
WINDS FOR SATURDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
5-6FT SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TODAY AND WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION
OCCUR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU THU. LIGHT PCPN...LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NGT. SATURDAY. POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS FORESEEN
THOUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
12 KNOTS AROUND 14-15Z ON FRIDAY.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY
THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEREFORE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AND TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 60 77 68 79 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 78 70 80 / 0 10 10 10
MIAMI 63 78 69 80 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 60 81 62 83 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
944 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY
THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEREFORE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AND TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AND TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
SOUTH FL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT FOR THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF NAPLES.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
405 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
...ELEVATED RISK OF FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW RIDGES UP OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE DIVING QUICKLY
BACK SOUTHWARD INTO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/FL PENINSULA AND
WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST LATER THIS MORNING. SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. DESPITE LIMITED RESIDUAL COLUMN
MOISTURE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...THIS FORCING IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN
RUSKIN HAD A DECENT SHOWER ROLL THROUGH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THIS
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY A RATHER UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL
(SFC-850MB DELTA T OF 10-12C) PROFILE OVER THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHEAST GULF. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS BY AND TAKES THE SYNOPTIC ASCENT EASTWARD AS WELL. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF AND RESULT IN ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN (IF THEY MEASURE AT ALL).
AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXITS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GOMEX AND FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GOMEX. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ARE CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS
WELL AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
IS ARRIVING ON THESE NW WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION NOW
DOWN INTO THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT AND DEAMPLIFY.
A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FORCED BY THE STRONG SYNOPTICS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD BE SHOWER FREE UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS A BIT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND DESPITE GOOD DIURNAL MIXING...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE RUNNING A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STILL OVERALL...NOT A
BAD DAY WEATHERWISE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 70S
NORTH OF I-4...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. THE ONSHORE
WEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A FEW DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES OVER THE WATER. FOR
ANYONE THAT DOES HEAD TO THE BEACHES OF THE SUNCOAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BE AWARE THAT THE HIGH SURF ARRIVING AT OUR COAST WILL
PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THE DAY.
A COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MID APRIL COMING UP...AND THIS WILL BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT / BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITHIN A VERY DRY TROP
COLUMN. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BY TONIGHT TO ONLY AROUND
0.5" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN LESS THAN THIS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. THE DRY COLUMN...COOL LOWER
LEVELS...AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECENT LATE SEASON RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NOW...WE ARE CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD SUPPORT ANY FROST...
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD 40S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST...WITH NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD
POTENTIALLY SEEING LOWER 40S AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH...LOWER/MID 50S WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.MID TERM (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND ALLOWING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN.
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INLAND
AND SOUTH...AND THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
INLAND AND SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS EACH MORNING FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 50 TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PLACE EACH DAY WITH
IT...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST
AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH...AND
AROUND 80 COASTAL TO THE MID 80S INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
MVFR CEILING...BUT THESE SHOULD END BY 14-15Z...AN BE FOLLOWED BY
ONLY SCT CLOUDS OFF THE GULF INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE W/NW
TODAY WITH GUSTS DURING THE MORNING TOPPING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS UNDER HEADLINE CRITERIA FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE REGION ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING. GIVEN THE FORECAST RH...WINDS...AND PROVIDED ERC
VALUES...CONDITIONS ARE VERY CLOSE TO REACHING BRIEF RED FLAG
CRITERIA AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE THE RED
FLAG WARNING BUT RATHER HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER IN THIS DISCUSSION. THE MORNING FORECAST SHIFT CAN
RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 56 79 60 / 10 0 0 10
FMY 79 57 83 60 / 10 0 0 10
GIF 76 55 80 59 / 10 0 0 10
SRQ 73 56 80 58 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 75 46 80 51 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 72 61 78 63 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...COLSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
/ISSUED 310 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN AGREEMENT KEEPING A SLOWER SYSTEM. THIS WOULD
BRING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THESE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
17
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY ACROSS THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW BUT APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 3 HOURS IN DURATION. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF THIS
DURATION EXPANDS AT ALL.
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SCT050
CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. DO
NOT EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR TOMORROW BUT SPEEDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
5-8 KT RANGE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
11/19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 42 75 48 76 / 0 0 5 5
ATLANTA 47 73 52 75 / 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 39 70 46 73 / 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 39 73 46 76 / 0 0 5 5
COLUMBUS 46 75 49 78 / 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 45 71 51 75 / 0 0 5 5
MACON 39 76 45 78 / 0 0 5 5
ROME 41 73 46 77 / 0 0 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 36 74 42 76 / 0 0 5 5
VIDALIA 47 76 51 80 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1029 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
IT IS VERY COLD ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -25. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE. THIS MORNING/S
FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR ONE-HALF OF AN INCH.
THE FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ADDED POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
TIMING THE HRRR SHOWED THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH IS NEAR
THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THEN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A
FLAT FLOW PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNRISE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEARS BETTER WITH LOWS NEAR 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. IT WILL BE WARMER AND THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE AIR MASS
IS DRY. THIS MORNING/S FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR
MASS. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEN SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW
INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG WINDS BECAUSE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WOULD AID DOWNDRAFTS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. USED THE GFS LAMP
FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM-TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIMINISHES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE WEST NEARS THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1016 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT IS VERY COLD ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -25. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE. THIS MORNING/S
FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR ONE-HALF OF AN INCH.
THE FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ADDED POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
TIMING THE HRRR SHOWED THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH IS NEAR
THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THEN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A
FLAT FLOW PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEARS BETTER WITH LOWS NEAR 40. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. IT WILL BE WARMER AND THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE AIR MASS
IS DRY. THIS MORNING/S FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR
MASS. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEN SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW
INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG WINDS BECAUSE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WOULD AID DOWNDRAFTS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. USED THE GFS LAMP
FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM-TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIMINISHES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE WEST NEARS THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE REACHING
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON PER SAT IMAGERY. BUILD UPS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS PER SAT IMAGERY AS WELL. SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE HELPING TO MAINTAIN GRADIENT AND WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS
SNAKE PLAIN. REACHING LOW END OF WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN BUT COVERED BY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY ALREADY. DUST
VISIBLE ON WEB CAMS NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
INSTABILITY STILL MIGRATES TO EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z AS SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE SHIFT EAST AND GRADIENT SUBSIDES. LATEST HRRR RUNS
CONTINUING TO SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER
THIS EVENING. NAM CARRYING SOME INSTABILITY THERE AND WILL BE IN
LINE WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TAIL SO ADDED WEAK POPS IN THAT
AREA AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL
BUT REGION HAS BEEN HOVERING AT THE 30MPH THRESHOLD WITH GUIDANCE
AT THESE LEVELS AND UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE BLOWING DUST BUT WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRAGS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. INSTABILITY NOT AS FAVORABLE AS
TODAY BUT LEFT WEAK COLLABORATION POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDERS. DMH
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS INCREASED MOISTURE MATCHING UP
BETTER WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW BRIEF RIDGING MONDAY WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
BEFORE BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY
FLOW WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY IS
BRINGING BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BUT
STILL REMAIN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR BYI...PIH AND IDA. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DROP OFF BY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FOR IDA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FOR SUN. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-021.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1002 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* POSSIBLE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS
THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A LAKE BREEZE HAS
FORMED AND IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. ITS POSSIBLE
THAT IT WILL APPROACH MDW AND ORD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
BUT SPEEDS BEHIND IT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINDS
ABOVE 10KTS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE...IT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW AND
EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED BACK TO THE LAKESHORE.
THE BACK EDGE OF AN OVC MID/HIGH DECK OVER NORTHWEST IL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...LEAVING GENERALLY SKC.
ADDITIONAL HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS FRIDAY. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* MONDAY...SHRA LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
648 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS EVENING.
* POSSIBLE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS
THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A LAKE BREEZE HAS
FORMED AND IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. ITS POSSIBLE
THAT IT WILL APPROACH MDW AND ORD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
BUT SPEEDS BEHIND IT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WINDS
ABOVE 10KTS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE...IT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW AND
EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED BACK TO THE LAKESHORE.
THE BACK EDGE OF AN OVC MID/HIGH DECK OVER NORTHWEST IL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...LEAVING GENERALLY SKC.
ADDITIONAL HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* MONDAY...SHRA LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough quickly
moving out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region
Thursday bringing precip chances to the Upper Midwest. Although
an attendant cold front is projected to push southeastward through
western Kansas early Thursday, a dry frontal passage is expected
with the lower/mid levels lacking significant moisture as indicated
by GFS/ECMWF model soundings. The drier pattern will likely continue
into the early part of the weekend. A drop in temperatures will
occur Thursday in wake of the cold front pushing through western
Kansas early in the day. Cooler air will surge southward into
western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Highs are
expected to struggle reaching the 70s(F) across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor, if at all. Lower to mid 70s(F) are likely across
southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border. A gradual warming
trend is likely through Saturday as a general south to southeasterly
low level flow prevails across western Kansas through much of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR conditions will continue into Thursday. Light downslope winds
become northwesterly and then northeasterly late tonight into
Thursday morning with a cold front. Winds increase with the front
to 15-25kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 47 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 46 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 48 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 49 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
603 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
At 00z Wednesday an upper level ridge axis extended from Utah
into western Saskatchewan and a 500mb trough was located near the
coast of southwest British Columbia. A 100kt 300mb jet extended
from the base of this upper trough east northeastward into
southwest Alberta. Further east a surface and 850mb trough was
located across the central and northern high plains. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday were +2C at Topeka, +10c at Dodge
City, +11 at North Platte and +16 at Amarillo.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough quickly
moving out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region
Thursday bringing precip chances to the Upper Midwest. Although
an attendant cold front is projected to push southeastward through
western Kansas early Thursday, a dry frontal passage is expected
with the lower/mid levels lacking significant moisture as indicated
by GFS/ECMWF model soundings. The drier pattern will likely continue
into the early part of the weekend. A drop in temperatures will
occur Thursday in wake of the cold front pushing through western
Kansas early in the day. Cooler air will surge southward into
western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Highs are
expected to struggle reaching the 70s(F) across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor, if at all. Lower to mid 70s(F) are likely across
southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border. A gradual warming
trend is likely through Saturday as a general south to southeasterly
low level flow prevails across western Kansas through much of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. As for winds, a lee side trough of low pressure will
slowly strengthen across extreme eastern Colorado today. As a
result, south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10kt early this
morning will increase to around 15 to 25kt through this
afternoon, then subside somewhat this evening as the surface
trough begins to move slowly into western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 49 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 51 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
At 00z Wednesday an upper level ridge axis extended from Utah
into western Saskatchewan and a 500mb trough was located near the
coast of southwest British Columbia. A 100kt 300mb jet extended
from the base of this upper trough east northeastward into
southwest Alberta. Further east a surface and 850mb trough was
located across the central and northern high plains. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday were +2C at Topeka, +10c at Dodge
City, +11 at North Platte and +16 at Amarillo.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough quickly
moving out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region
Thursday bringing precip chances to the Upper Midwest. Although
an attendant cold front is projected to push southeastward through
western Kansas early Thursday, a dry frontal passage is expected
with the lower/mid levels lacking significant moisture as indicated
by GFS/ECMWF model soundings. The drier pattern will likely continue
into the early part of the weekend. A drop in temperatures will
occur Thursday in wake of the cold front pushing through western
Kansas early in the day. Cooler air will surge southward into
western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Highs are
expected to struggle reaching the 70s(F) across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor, if at all. Lower to mid 70s(F) are likely across
southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border. A gradual warming
trend is likely through Saturday as a general south to southeasterly
low level flow prevails across western Kansas through much of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RAP and BUFR soundings indicating dry air will be in place in the
lower levels of the atmosphere overnight and Wednesday across
western Kansas. As a result VFR conditions will continue. Light
winds will become southwest and increase into the 10 to 15kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 49 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 51 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...Updated synopsis, short term, and fire weather discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
At 00z Wednesday an upper level ridge axis extended from Utah
into western Saskatchewan and a 500mb trough was located near the
coast of southwest British Columbia. A 100kt 300mb jet extended
from the base of this upper trough east northeastward into
southwest Alberta. Further east a surface and 850mb trough was
located across the central and northern high plains. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday were +2C at Topeka, +10c at Dodge
City, +11 at North Platte and +16 at Amarillo.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
This extended period will begin with Wednesday night, with a
predominant northwest flow aloft, as depicted by the NAM, ECMWF, and
GFS models. Southwest Kansas can expect a mild night under clear
skies Wednesday night, and a breezy, mostly sunny and warm day on
Thursday. Winds on Thursday will start from the north as a surface
pressure system slides towards the east. By the end of the day, the
pressure gradient will evolve from the north to the south, and winds
will shift to the east by late Thursday afternoon.
Friday and Saturday should be warm as well, as upper level northwest
flow persists and produces a downslope affect. The surface flow
will become southeast to south Friday and Saturday. Clouds will
start increasing from west to east by Friday night, first with upper
level cirrus clouds increasing and then mid altocumulus clouds.
Late Saturday evening and night, there will be a chance for
nocturnal thunderstorms northeast of a line from Ness City to Pratt,
the approximate location of the surface front by 12Z Sunday.
Saturday should still be warm, with upper 70s to lower 80s for max
temperatures. Sunday will cool down some, as high clouds thicken
and continue to move in Saturday, as a cold front passes through to
the south Saturday night and Sunday, There is a cool surface high
pressure moving in from the north Sunday, and more mid and high
clouds as well. Both high and low temperatures will be nearer to
normal, down from warmer Wed-Sat levels.
Sunday night looks to the most active convective period, with our
eastern zones from Ellis to Coldwater having the highest
instability. An upper level open wave will be crossing west to
east, providing mid and upper level lift to western and central
Kansas. The thunderstorms will change over to rain or rainshowers
Sunday night as the atmosphere gets worked over and becomes more
stable. Rainfall will be lighter Sunday night, and for now, I did
not add any mixed R-/S- precipitation types. The upper wave should
be east of our area by Monday Noon, with precip ending Monday morning.
Surface temperatures will warm up a little by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RAP and BUFR soundings indicating dry air will be in place in the
lower levels of the atmosphere overnight and Wednesday across
western Kansas. As a result VFR conditions will continue. Light
winds will become southwest and increase into the 10 to 15kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected today. Gusty
southwest winds will develop by late morning. These gusty winds
will decrease during the early afternoon as a surface trough of
low pressure moves east into western Kansas. As the southwest
winds decrease...the relative humidity values will fall back into
the teens and by late day afternoon relative humidity values area
expected to range from 10 to 15 percent. Across portions of south
central Kansas late this afternoon wind gusts of 25 mph or higher
will still be possible. Base on where these gusty winds will be
late today along with relative humidity values of 10 to 15 percent
a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Meade, Clark, Comanche, and
Barber counties. Further north and west the wind speeds will be
lighter, however elevated fire weather conditions are still
expected. Outdoor burning is not recommended today, especially
near the Oklahoma border where the Red Flag Warning has been
posted.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 49 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 51 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
912 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Narrowed the area of higher pops for overnight and Friday, as a weak
frontal boundary creeps toward us from the northwest. By daybreak,
have a narrow zone of isentropic lift along this front along with
some weak forcing aloft. Also, latest HRRR actually diminishes the
line because of that weakening support. Given that we will have a
pool of moisture and a low-level jet over the north overnight, will
keep pops generally in the scattered range north of a Leitchfield to
Georgetown line in KY. Also kept in the isolated thunder wording,
given some elevated instability.
We got pretty warm today, and steady winds this evening in a tight
pressure gradient field ahead of the front slow but steady fall in
temperatures. Forecast lows still look good, and main change with
this package was that mentioned above.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
A cold front currently stretched from the Great Lakes southwestward
through Illinois and Missouri continues to approach the Ohio Valley.
We are squeezed between this front and high pressure to our
southeast, which has strengthened the pressure gradient. Winds will
continue to be gusty this afternoon and early evening, with
sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts approaching
40 mph. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the other concern
with these winds is an enhanced fire danger. Relative humidity
values have dropped into the middle 20s to middle 30s this
afternoon, as area-wide temperatures have reach the lower to middle
70s as of this writing.
The cold front to our northwest will slide into southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky tonight and continue a slow southward progression
through the day Friday. Scattered to numerous showers will develop
along this front during the evening hours across our northern
counties and slide southward overnight and through the day Friday
coincident with the front. Some elevated instability is noticeable
every now and then in the sounding profile, so will continue to
mention isolated thunderstorm chances. Showers will taper off from
west to east Friday evening as the deeper moisture exits with the
upper forcing, though low clouds should stick around overnight.
As for temperatures, they will remain mild tonight, only dropping
into the middle 50s. Expect highs Friday to be a bit cooler than
today, topping out in the middle 60s across the north to lower 70s
across our south. Low temperatures Friday night should be around the
50 degree mark.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Saturday through Monday Night...
Surface frontal boundary looks to drop southward into Tennessee
Saturday morning and then wash out. The remnants of the front look
to move back through the region during the afternoon hours on
Saturday with the boundary surging northward late Saturday night.
All of the available deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests
that some light showers could still pop up during the afternoon.
Overall, moisture in the column and lack of a clear forcing feature
suggest that only very isolated showers would be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours. We do expect a Cu field to develop
during the afternoon and this looks to dissipate after sunset.
Saturday will be a mild day across the Ohio Valley with afternoon
readings in the 72 to 77 degree range. Lows Saturday night will not
drop off much...only into the mid 50s in the east and upper 50s in
the west.
By Sunday, an upper trough over the western CONUS will start to
migrate eastward into the Plains. A lee side cyclogenesis event
will take place with a surface low developing over the Red River
area early Sunday. This feature will rapidly move northeastward on
Sunday and move into the southern Great Lakes by Monday afternoon.
As this occurs, this feature will drag a surface cold front through
the region. At this time, the latest data suggests that Sunday
will be rather dry and warm across the forecast area. Atmospheric
soundings show a bit of capping during the afternoon that should
preclude convection developing. Best chances of any afternoon
convection would be across our far NW sections. Better chances of
precipitation will be later Sunday night as the actual frontal
boundary closes in on the region. Very high chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Monday night as the frontal
boundary crosses the region.
Highs Sunday look to be the warmest during the forecast period with
highs of 75 to 80 degrees likely. Lows Sunday night will only drop
into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Monday in the
pre-frontal airmass will warm into the mid-upper 60s with lows
falling into the middle 30s by early Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Surface cold front will slowly work eastward and away from the
region on Tuesday. The actual speed of the front may be a little
slower than previously thought due to a wave of low pressure moving
along the frontal boundary. This may keep clouds in our eastern
sections a little longer on Tuesday...delaying clearing and
resulting in slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Generally have
gone with the 00Z Euro Ensemble and 12Z OP Euro deterministic runs
here...given the slightly progressive bias of the GFS. Highs
Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 40s to around 50 in the
north with lower 50s in the south. Clearing should take place
Tuesday night which should for decent radiational cooling to
commence. This will likely lead to our first spring frost/freeze of
the season. Lows Tuesday night will cool into the lower 30s with
the coldest readings over our southern Indiana and northern
Bluegrass regions. At this time, we feel that the threat of a hard
freeze is very low...but frost certainly looks like a good bet.
Upper level and surface ridge axis will move through the region on
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry conditions. Highs on
Wednesday look to top out in the upper 50s with highs in the
lower-middle 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows through the period
will remain below normal with readings generally cooling upper 30s
to the lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
A cold front continues to approach the region this evening, as
evidenced by gusty south to southwest winds. These gusts will die
down with sunset, but sustained speeds will be in the 10-15 knot
range. A look at RAP soundings continues to indicate winds at 2 kft
agl in the 45-50 knot range. This continues to be marginal for
low-level wind shear criteria, but decided to go ahead and include
in this package after coordination with CWSU IND and for pilot info
during a peak period at KSDF.
Clouds will thicken ahead of the front this evening, with showers
arriving before daybreak. We may have some elevated instability that
could produce a rumble or two of thunder, but not enough confidence
to include in the mid-range of this forecast package. VFR conditions
look to rule in this period, but cannot rule out brief drops to MVFR
in the heavier showers.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
657 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
A cold front currently stretched from the Great Lakes southwestward
through Illinois and Missouri continues to approach the Ohio Valley.
We are squeezed between this front and high pressure to our
southeast, which has strengthened the pressure gradient. Winds will
continue to be gusty this afternoon and early evening, with
sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts approaching
40 mph. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the other concern
with these winds is an enhanced fire danger. Relative humidity
values have dropped into the middle 20s to middle 30s this
afternoon, as area-wide temperatures have reach the lower to middle
70s as of this writing.
The cold front to our northwest will slide into southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky tonight and continue a slow southward progression
through the day Friday. Scattered to numerous showers will develop
along this front during the evening hours across our northern
counties and slide southward overnight and through the day Friday
coincident with the front. Some elevated instability is noticeable
every now and then in the sounding profile, so will continue to
mention isolated thunderstorm chances. Showers will taper off from
west to east Friday evening as the deeper moisture exits with the
upper forcing, though low clouds should stick around overnight.
As for temperatures, they will remain mild tonight, only dropping
into the middle 50s. Expect highs Friday to be a bit cooler than
today, topping out in the middle 60s across the north to lower 70s
across our south. Low temperatures Friday night should be around the
50 degree mark.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Saturday through Monday Night...
Surface frontal boundary looks to drop southward into Tennessee
Saturday morning and then wash out. The remnants of the front look
to move back through the region during the afternoon hours on
Saturday with the boundary surging northward late Saturday night.
All of the available deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests
that some light showers could still pop up during the afternoon.
Overall, moisture in the column and lack of a clear forcing feature
suggest that only very isolated showers would be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours. We do expect a Cu field to develop
during the afternoon and this looks to dissipate after sunset.
Saturday will be a mild day across the Ohio Valley with afternoon
readings in the 72 to 77 degree range. Lows Saturday night will not
drop off much...only into the mid 50s in the east and upper 50s in
the west.
By Sunday, an upper trough over the western CONUS will start to
migrate eastward into the Plains. A lee side cyclogenesis event
will take place with a surface low developing over the Red River
area early Sunday. This feature will rapidly move northeastward on
Sunday and move into the southern Great Lakes by Monday afternoon.
As this occurs, this feature will drag a surface cold front through
the region. At this time, the latest data suggests that Sunday
will be rather dry and warm across the forecast area. Atmospheric
soundings show a bit of capping during the afternoon that should
preclude convection developing. Best chances of any afternoon
convection would be across our far NW sections. Better chances of
precipitation will be later Sunday night as the actual frontal
boundary closes in on the region. Very high chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Monday night as the frontal
boundary crosses the region.
Highs Sunday look to be the warmest during the forecast period with
highs of 75 to 80 degrees likely. Lows Sunday night will only drop
into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Monday in the
pre-frontal airmass will warm into the mid-upper 60s with lows
falling into the middle 30s by early Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Surface cold front will slowly work eastward and away from the
region on Tuesday. The actual speed of the front may be a little
slower than previously thought due to a wave of low pressure moving
along the frontal boundary. This may keep clouds in our eastern
sections a little longer on Tuesday...delaying clearing and
resulting in slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Generally have
gone with the 00Z Euro Ensemble and 12Z OP Euro deterministic runs
here...given the slightly progressive bias of the GFS. Highs
Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 40s to around 50 in the
north with lower 50s in the south. Clearing should take place
Tuesday night which should for decent radiational cooling to
commence. This will likely lead to our first spring frost/freeze of
the season. Lows Tuesday night will cool into the lower 30s with
the coldest readings over our southern Indiana and northern
Bluegrass regions. At this time, we feel that the threat of a hard
freeze is very low...but frost certainly looks like a good bet.
Upper level and surface ridge axis will move through the region on
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry conditions. Highs on
Wednesday look to top out in the upper 50s with highs in the
lower-middle 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows through the period
will remain below normal with readings generally cooling upper 30s
to the lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
A cold front continues to approach the region this evening, as
evidenced by gusty south to southwest winds. These gusts will die
down with sunset, but sustained speeds will be in the 10-15 knot
range. A look at RAP soundings continues to indicate winds at 2 kft
agl in the 45-50 knot range. This continues to be marginal for
low-level wind shear criteria, but decided to go ahead and include
in this package after coordination with CWSU IND and for pilot info
during a peak period at KSDF.
Clouds will thicken ahead of the front this evening, with showers
arriving before daybreak. We may have some elevated instability that
could produce a rumble or two of thunder, but not enough confidence
to include in the mid-range of this forecast package. VFR conditions
look to rule in this period, but cannot rule out brief drops to MVFR
in the heavier showers.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1223 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESONET.
PREV DISC...
830PM UPDATE...
HAVE FURTHER REFINED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MORE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS NOTED BY AREA OF RAIN
ALREADY IN QUEBEC AND VERMONT.
530PM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LEADING EDGE OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY POP FORECAST AND RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL. FOG HAS
MOVED IN TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER... AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS FOG WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND IT WILL BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS OUR
WINDS SHIFT ACROSS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL GIVE US SOME
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS GO
LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY MOVE THRU THE AREA. SKIES CLEAR ON
FRIDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NE THRU NEW ENGLAND AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THAT WOULD BE ENDING BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR
BEFORE A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BY MID SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU MONDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR TIMING OF PCPN. INCREASED MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
TO IFR AS CLOUDS WILL LIFT WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW AND
THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE SCA WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IN AN INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND GUSTS
UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUNCOOK RIVER AT NORTH CHICHESTER REMAINS IN A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY... HOWEVER ANY FLOODING WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST 19Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TIED WITH MAIN SFC LOW MOVING
EAST INTO MANITOBA WHILE THERE WAS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NW
NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER MOVING RAPIDLY EAST IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROPELLING SYSTEMS COLD FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. WAA MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 8H WARM FRONT
HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITING MIXING AND KEPT TEMPS ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST SO HAVE HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RETURNS ALONG THIS BAND
OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN REPORTED HITTING THE GROUND AS CLOUD
CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 6KFT AND VERY DRY AIR IN LOW-LVLS OF
ATMOSPHERE AS DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING OVER WRN UPR MI AND EAST WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS
WELL NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT STAY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN. CONCERN IS WE COULD HAVE BROKEN COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO
HANG ONTO A 2-3HR PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FCST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE TO 7C ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CAPE IS
PRETTY MINIMAL (100 J/KG OR LESS). THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO IN THE
MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT 12Z...ONLY INCLUDED
CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.
INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A MILD START TO THE
DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS MAY APPROACH NEAR 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXED LAYER AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH
RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS MAY APPROACH
WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. A TRAILING WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
A SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LOW...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A TERTIARY AND MORE POTENT TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100KT UPPER JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN
MN. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO APPROACHES AT THIS TIME. BEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AND LEAD
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE. A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RUNS HAVE BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE OVER TIME. THIS
LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM FRIDAYS TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS
WI AND LOWER MI. WITH AN OPEN PATH FOR GULF MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD...THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER CHANCES OF A
MODERATE RAIN EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AMPLE SUPPORT SHOULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 110KT UPPER JET COLLOCATED
WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290-295K THETA SFCS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE RESPONSE TO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE ON PRECIP FOR THIS REASON. WHILE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY LIMIT QPF...ENOUGH OTHER FACTORS ARE IN
PLACE TO TO PUT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASED
QPF. ALSO...WEAK SFC TO LOW-LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY WILL REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS UPPER MI...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS NOTED...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL...SO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THAT TIME. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM A COLDER AND WETTER
FORECAST MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND BRINGS ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO WET SNOW AS NOTED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK. THE COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND GUST IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET 2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE
(TO 50-55KTS) WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW WHERE GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE SOME THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THIS EVENINGY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-40KTS)...BUT THE
ICE COVER ON THE LAKE SHOULD HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MAYBE A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER HIGHER
PLATFORMS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING
BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND (SAT NIGHT INTO SUN)...BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO
PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF/KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
DURING THE LONG TERM....PATTERN WILL RETURN TO ONE THAT WAS COMMON
DURING THE WINTER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
NW NAMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL FORCE A RATHER DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP THRU THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL YIELD A HVY PCPN
SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS MANY GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGESTED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN WITH THE BEST CHC PROBABLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...
WARMTH/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE LONG TERM WILL TRANSITION TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS (POTENTIALLY WELL BLO NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR THEREAFTER.
BEGINNNING THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT
12Z...ONLY INCLUDED CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A
MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY SNEAK ABOVE 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING BUILD MIXED LAYER
AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTING FROM DEEP LOW PRES WELL TO
THE N AND NE. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NAM GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW.
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRI...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA. WHILE THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY ASSERTIVE WITH PCPN FRI...THE ECMWF
HAS ONLY RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. WITH SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE
NAM AND UKMET...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LOW CHC OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FRI. BEST CHC WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FCST
AND PROVIDES THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. FOR MANY DAYS...GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THAT SCENARIO OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...THE
ECMWF HAS NOT WAVERED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ACTION WILL BEGIN WITH
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NW NAMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FORCE TROF AMPLIFICATION S THRU THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE MASS OF LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR TO
PUSH S TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS UNDER THE AMPLIFYING TROF WHILE THE
GULF OF MEXICO OPENS FOR BUSINESS WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMTH/MOISTURE
STREAMING N AHEAD OF THE TROF. ALL THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SPRING-TIME HVY PCPN EVENT. WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE TROF AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING/INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHAT ULTIMATELY HAPPENS. WAVES
INVOLVED INCLUDE ONE MOVING E INTO SRN CA AND ONE DROPPING SSE THRU
THE PACIFIC NW SAT AND THEN MORE ENERGY DROPPING S TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT. IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER TROF IS FARTHER W OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE IS MUCH
MORE SHORTWAVE INTERACTION/PHASING...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE GENERATING A SFC WAVE
THAT BRINGS A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN NIGHT/MON.
IN THE GFS SCENARIO...THE AMPLIFYING TROF IS FARTHER E...WHICH
RESULTS IN THE NE MOVING SFC WAVE TO BE MUCH FARTHER E...NOT
AFFECTING UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ITS LEADING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN
STREAM PRODUCES A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW THAT BRINGS A STREAK MDT
PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...HESITANT TO FAVOR THE ECMWF GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN VERY
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT IT SHOWS TAKING
PLACE. WITH THE GFS HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...FCST WILL
LEAN MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THAT DECISION IS BOOSTED
SOME WITH TODAYS 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS/GEM/UKMET.
ON SAT...STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
THE AREA. GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE GEM AND
ECMWF ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING ONLY LIQUID. FOR NOW...FCST WILL
REFLECT A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO SAT THAT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PCPN MAY
IN FACT END SUN...LEAVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE. THE
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND GUST IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET 2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE
(TO 50-55KTS) WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW WHERE GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE SOME THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
749 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
DURING THE LONG TERM....PATTERN WILL RETURN TO ONE THAT WAS COMMON
DURING THE WINTER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
NW NAMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL FORCE A RATHER DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP THRU THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL YIELD A HVY PCPN
SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS MANY GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGESTED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN WITH THE BEST CHC PROBABLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...
WARMTH/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE LONG TERM WILL TRANSITION TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS (POTENTIALLY WELL BLO NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR THEREAFTER.
BEGINNNING THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT
12Z...ONLY INCLUDED CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A
MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY SNEAK ABOVE 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING BUILD MIXED LAYER
AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTING FROM DEEP LOW PRES WELL TO
THE N AND NE. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NAM GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW.
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRI...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA. WHILE THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY ASSERTIVE WITH PCPN FRI...THE ECMWF
HAS ONLY RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. WITH SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE
NAM AND UKMET...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LOW CHC OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FRI. BEST CHC WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FCST
AND PROVIDES THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. FOR MANY DAYS...GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THAT SCENARIO OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...THE
ECMWF HAS NOT WAVERED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ACTION WILL BEGIN WITH
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NW NAMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FORCE TROF AMPLIFICATION S THRU THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE MASS OF LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR TO
PUSH S TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS UNDER THE AMPLIFYING TROF WHILE THE
GULF OF MEXICO OPENS FOR BUSINESS WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMTH/MOISTURE
STREAMING N AHEAD OF THE TROF. ALL THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SPRING-TIME HVY PCPN EVENT. WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE TROF AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING/INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHAT ULTIMATELY HAPPENS. WAVES
INVOLVED INCLUDE ONE MOVING E INTO SRN CA AND ONE DROPPING SSE THRU
THE PACIFIC NW SAT AND THEN MORE ENERGY DROPPING S TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT. IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER TROF IS FARTHER W OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE IS MUCH
MORE SHORTWAVE INTERACTION/PHASING...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE GENERATING A SFC WAVE
THAT BRINGS A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN NIGHT/MON.
IN THE GFS SCENARIO...THE AMPLIFYING TROF IS FARTHER E...WHICH
RESULTS IN THE NE MOVING SFC WAVE TO BE MUCH FARTHER E...NOT
AFFECTING UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ITS LEADING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN
STREAM PRODUCES A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW THAT BRINGS A STREAK MDT
PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...HESITANT TO FAVOR THE ECMWF GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN VERY
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT IT SHOWS TAKING
PLACE. WITH THE GFS HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...FCST WILL
LEAN MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THAT DECISION IS BOOSTED
SOME WITH TODAYS 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS/GEM/UKMET.
ON SAT...STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
THE AREA. GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE GEM AND
ECMWF ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING ONLY LIQUID. FOR NOW...FCST WILL
REFLECT A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO SAT THAT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PCPN MAY
IN FACT END SUN...LEAVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE. THE
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET 2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE (TO
50-60KTS) MAY LEAD TO SOME LLWS...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN
FUTURE ISSUANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
539 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
DURING THE LONG TERM....PATTERN WILL RETURN TO ONE THAT WAS COMMON
DURING THE WINTER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
NW NAMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL FORCE A RATHER DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP THRU THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL YIELD A HVY PCPN
SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS MANY GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGESTED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN WITH THE BEST CHC PROBABLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...
WARMTH/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE LONG TERM WILL TRANSITION TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS (POTENTIALLY WELL BLO NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR THEREAFTER.
BEGINNNING THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT
12Z...ONLY INCLUDED CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A
MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY SNEAK ABOVE 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING BUILD MIXED LAYER
AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTING FROM DEEP LOW PRES WELL TO
THE N AND NE. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NAM GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW.
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRI...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA. WHILE THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY ASSERTIVE WITH PCPN FRI...THE ECMWF
HAS ONLY RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. WITH SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE
NAM AND UKMET...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LOW CHC OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FRI. BEST CHC WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FCST
AND PROVIDES THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. FOR MANY DAYS...GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THAT SCENARIO OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...THE
ECMWF HAS NOT WAVERED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ACTION WILL BEGIN WITH
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NW NAMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FORCE TROF AMPLIFICATION S THRU THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE MASS OF LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR TO
PUSH S TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS UNDER THE AMPLIFYING TROF WHILE THE
GULF OF MEXICO OPENS FOR BUSINESS WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMTH/MOISTURE
STREAMING N AHEAD OF THE TROF. ALL THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SPRING-TIME HVY PCPN EVENT. WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE TROF AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING/INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHAT ULTIMATELY HAPPENS. WAVES
INVOLVED INCLUDE ONE MOVING E INTO SRN CA AND ONE DROPPING SSE THRU
THE PACIFIC NW SAT AND THEN MORE ENERGY DROPPING S TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT. IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER TROF IS FARTHER W OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE IS MUCH
MORE SHORTWAVE INTERACTION/PHASING...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE GENERATING A SFC WAVE
THAT BRINGS A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN NIGHT/MON.
IN THE GFS SCENARIO...THE AMPLIFYING TROF IS FARTHER E...WHICH
RESULTS IN THE NE MOVING SFC WAVE TO BE MUCH FARTHER E...NOT
AFFECTING UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ITS LEADING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN
STREAM PRODUCES A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW THAT BRINGS A STREAK MDT
PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...HESITANT TO FAVOR THE ECMWF GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN VERY
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT IT SHOWS TAKING
PLACE. WITH THE GFS HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...FCST WILL
LEAN MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THAT DECISION IS BOOSTED
SOME WITH TODAYS 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS/GEM/UKMET.
ON SAT...STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
THE AREA. GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE GEM AND
ECMWF ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING ONLY LIQUID. FOR NOW...FCST WILL
REFLECT A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO SAT THAT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PCPN MAY
IN FACT END SUN...LEAVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE. THE
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THE TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SW WINDS
TO GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
445 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS EASTERN CANADIAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE FAR EAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS/5-10KFT...THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND.
FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT OF A DEVELOPING
90-100KT UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE AVAILABLE FORCING ACROSS UPPER MI TO A NARROW
BAND OF FGEN ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LOW...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A NARROW 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE QUITE SCATTERED...SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OVER CHANCE POPS.
SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OF WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND WILL BE OF NOTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING S
TO SW GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOTED BY A 50 TO 60KT H8 LLJ. AREAS
FAVORED BY S TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY
AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ABOVE 32F...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI
MAY BEGIN QUICKLY ERODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO EACH THEIR OWN WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS FRIDAY EVENING RANGING FROM A
STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/GFS/ TO WEAK RIDGING/NAM/ TO
NW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/GEM AND ECMWF/. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SHOWING SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS REASON. WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
STRETCH...TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS DOMINATE PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. GIVEN SOME CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THE ECMWF...WILL USE THAT TO FORMULATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND GRAZE
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE LEFT-EXIT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES A SFC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COMPLICATED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK TRACKS SE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ROUND THE LARGER TROUGH...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BEFORE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR...SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...UPPER MI WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MODERATE
TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM/PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
IF ANYTHING...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK THE PATTERN FELT OVER
MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THE TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SW WINDS
TO GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS
PRODUCED SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN TO
SEND AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S REPORTED SCNTRL
UPPER MI (AT LEAST 55F IN KMNM) DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING 5H HGTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SFC RDG WILL
ALLOW LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW
FOR A DECENT TEMP FALL. CONTINUED TO KEEP MINS TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS SHOULD FALL TO THE MID
TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER THE E.
WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SPREAD SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH SHIFTING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA AND LEADING TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS.
STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
(850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -2C AT 12Z TO AT LEAST 6C BY 00Z THURSDAY)
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 40S OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF CWA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. SW WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO WARM
AND LIMIT LAKE BREEZE COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS EASTERN CANADIAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE FAR EAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS/5-10KFT...THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND.
FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT OF A DEVELOPING
90-100KT UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE AVAILABLE FORCING ACROSS UPPER MI TO A NARROW
BAND OF FGEN ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LOW...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A NARROW 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE QUITE SCATTERED...SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OVER CHANCE POPS.
SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OF WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND WILL BE OF NOTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING S
TO SW GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOTED BY A 50 TO 60KT H8 LLJ. AREAS
FAVORED BY S TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY
AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ABOVE 32F...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI
MAY BEGIN QUICKLY ERODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO EACH THEIR OWN WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS FRIDAY EVENING RANGING FROM A
STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/GFS/ TO WEAK RIDGING/NAM/ TO
NW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/GEM AND ECMWF/. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SHOWING SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS REASON. WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
STRETCH...TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS DOMINATE PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. GIVEN SOME CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THE ECMWF...WILL USE THAT TO FORMULATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND GRAZE
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE LEFT-EXIT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES A SFC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COMPLICATED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK TRACKS SE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ROUND THE LARGER TROUGH...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BEFORE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR...SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...UPPER MI WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MODERATE
TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM/PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
IF ANYTHING...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK THE PATTERN FELT OVER
MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THE TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SW WINDS
TO GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW LATE WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES
ARRIVING BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT
PUSHES WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU
NIGHT/FRI. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. LOWS WELL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
MOST ABUNDANT SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 32F AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOTE: THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL.
DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED ON
00-06Z MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ADJUSTING FOR THE COOL BIAS OVER THE
PAST WEEK. THE COOL BIAS WITH FORECAST HIGHS WERE APPARENT IN BOTH
THE MPX FORECAST AND IN MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WHICH IS A GOOD PLACE TO
BE ON DAYS LIKE TODAY. WE ALMOST NEVER GO WARM ENOUGH...AND MODEL
OUTPUT TENDS TO RUN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL/MOIST WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE USED A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST AND THEN
ADJUSTED UP 5 DEGREES BASED ON THE 925-850MB THERMAL PROFILE AND
STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A BATCH
OF 10KFT CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...BUT WE THINK THIS WILL
CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN`T ARRIVE IN FAR EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL 18-00Z...SO BE PATIENT WITH THE WARMING
TODAY IN THESE AREAS. WE MIGHT END UP WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
4-4:30PM...RATHER THAN 2-3PM. BEHIND THE WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL COME A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE COULDN`T REALLY JUSTIFY RAISING POPS
TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOR TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE LIKELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE POST-FRONTAL SATURATION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
SOUTH OF HERE WE HAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AND A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHT QPF...BUT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND AND
THERE MIGHT BE A LOT OF VIRGA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TRACE-0.04" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FIRST OFF...IT`S NICE TO SEE THE 09.00Z ECMWF MOSTLY REMOVED THE
TWO SNOW EVENTS IT HAD LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS STARTING TO GARNER SOME
ATTENTION. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED MODEL OUTPUT IS STILL NOT
OPTIMISTIC IN MAINTAINING ANY SORT OF WARMTH AS WE TRANSITION FROM
SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COLD DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL /POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL/ FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU BUY THE SLOWER...DEEPER ECMWF.
THOSE 850 MB TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
FEBRUARY. THE GFS ISN`T QUITE AS BAD MON-WED...BUT THERE ARE SOME
GLARING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THERE
IS A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T
OVERLY STRONG. WE COULD STILL SHAKE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS AND RESPECTABLE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD
ALSO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 20-40DM HEIGHT FALLS
DURING THE DAY. SO...THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE OVER A LARGE AREA...SO IF
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES...WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MOVE TOWARD LIKELY
POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-22KTS WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SAID FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SPREADING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ARRIVAL BETWEEN 00Z /KAXN/ AND 05Z
/KEAU/. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BY 1-2 HOURS PER MODEL TRENDS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO AROUND A 4 HOUR WINDOW. COVERAGE OF ANY TS IS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. COULD ALSO SEE SCT- BKN 2500-3000FT
CLOUDS WITH/BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MN/WI BORDER
AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...PRECIP/CLOUDS EXIT
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH THE ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IN THE
PERIOD BEING ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SPEEDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS AROUND 15Z.
KMSP...
TRICKY WIND DIRECTION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ON WHEN THE SWITCH TO 220 DEGREES WILL OCCUR...BUT HI-RES
MODELS ARE POINTING TO 21-22Z. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE IN 1-2 HOURS SOONER THAN DEPICTED
BY THE PREVIOUS TAF...SO BROUGHT IN -SHRA AT 04Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS
WOULD BE MINOR AND COULD SEE SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL
/2500-3000 FT/. SKIES CLEAR BETWEEN 09Z AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-18KTS AND GUSTS 25-30KTS DEVELOPING BY
15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE WIND FAVORED AREAS. THE WEATHER ELEMENT
WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS STILL THE HUMIDITY. TOOK A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WORK IN THE GRIDS TO GET HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THESE TYPES OF WEATHER
PATTERNS...FORECAST MODELS RUN A COOL/MOIST BIAS...THE BIG QUESTION
FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE OVER CORRECTED FOR SAID COOL/MOIST
BIAS. FOR THE CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST TO WORK OUT...WE WILL NEED
TO SEE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO ABOVE 800 MB AS THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE AND ALSO HOPE WE DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH POOLING OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NODAK/NW MN BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-35
MPH WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WAS
DECIDED BY ALL OFFICES TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH THE
EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET IN SW MN /WHERE INITIAL WARNING WAS ISSUED/ AND
DOES GRADUALLY DECREASE SOME AS YOU HEAD EAST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
054>058-064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
651 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOTE: THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL.
DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED ON
00-06Z MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ADJUSTING FOR THE COOL BIAS OVER THE
PAST WEEK. THE COOL BIAS WITH FORECAST HIGHS WERE APPARENT IN BOTH
THE MPX FORECAST AND IN MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WHICH IS A GOOD PLACE TO
BE ON DAYS LIKE TODAY. WE ALMOST NEVER GO WARM ENOUGH...AND MODEL
OUTPUT TENDS TO RUN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL/MOIST WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE USED A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST AND THEN
ADJUSTED UP 5 DEGREES BASED ON THE 925-850MB THERMAL PROFILE AND
STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A BATCH
OF 10KFT CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...BUT WE THINK THIS WILL
CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN`T ARRIVE IN FAR EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL 18-00Z...SO BE PATIENT WITH THE WARMING
TODAY IN THESE AREAS. WE MIGHT END UP WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
4-4:30PM...RATHER THAN 2-3PM. BEHIND THE WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL COME A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE COULDN`T REALLY JUSTIFY RAISING POPS
TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOR TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE LIKELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE POST-FRONTAL SATURATION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
SOUTH OF HERE WE HAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AND A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHT QPF...BUT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND AND
THERE MIGHT BE A LOT OF VIRGA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TRACE-0.04" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FIRST OFF...IT`S NICE TO SEE THE 09.00Z ECMWF MOSTLY REMOVED THE
TWO SNOW EVENTS IT HAD LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS STARTING TO GARNER SOME
ATTENTION. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED MODEL OUTPUT IS STILL NOT
OPTIMISTIC IN MAINTAINING ANY SORT OF WARMTH AS WE TRANSITION FROM
SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COLD DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL /POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL/ FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU BUY THE SLOWER...DEEPER ECMWF.
THOSE 850 MB TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
FEBRUARY. THE GFS ISN`T QUITE AS BAD MON-WED...BUT THERE ARE SOME
GLARING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THERE
IS A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T
OVERLY STRONG. WE COULD STILL SHAKE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS AND RESPECTABLE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD
ALSO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 20-40DM HEIGHT FALLS
DURING THE DAY. SO...THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE OVER A LARGE AREA...SO IF
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES...WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MOVE TOWARD LIKELY
POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THINKING FROM 6Z TAF. DEEP MIXING TODAY STILL
LOOKS TO PROMOTE GUSTY SW WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW 30-35 KT
GUSTS AT MN TERMINALS. WILL HAVE A BATCH OF 10K FT CIGS QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. MODEL TIMING ON
THE FRONT IS SIMILAR...COMING THROUGH AXN AROUND 3Z...MSP 6Z AND
EAU 9Z. STILL SEEING A SHRA SIGNAL...MOSTLY POST FRONT. BROUGHT
SHRA INTO ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A BATCH OF SHOWERS
COMING OUT OF NRN SODAK EAST ACROSS TERMINALS. TIMING IN TAFS IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS/NAM AND SLOWER HI-RES ARW/NMM.
WHATEVER IS SEEN PRECIP WISE...ANY SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED GIVEN HIGH BASED NATURE OF ACTIVITY.
KMSP...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SHRA...4 HOUR WINDOW IS TOO
LONG...BUT DOES CAPTURE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR SHRA AT THE
FIELD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REMAINING ASPECTS OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE WIND FAVORED AREAS. THE WEATHER ELEMENT
WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS STILL THE HUMIDITY. TOOK A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WORK IN THE GRIDS TO GET HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THESE TYPES OF WEATHER
PATTERNS...FORECAST MODELS RUN A COOL/MOIST BIAS...THE BIG QUESTION
FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE OVER CORRECTED FOR SAID COOL/MOIST
BIAS. FOR THE CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST TO WORK OUT...WE WILL NEED
TO SEE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO ABOVE 800 MB AS THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE AND ALSO HOPE WE DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH POOLING OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NODAK/NW MN BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-35
MPH WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WAS
DECIDED BY ALL OFFICES TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH THE
EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET IN SW MN /WHERE INITIAL WARNING WAS ISSUED/ AND
DOES GRADUALLY DECREASE SOME AS YOU HEAD EAST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOTE: THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL.
DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED ON
00-06Z MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ADJUSTING FOR THE COOL BIAS OVER THE
PAST WEEK. THE COOL BIAS WITH FORECAST HIGHS WERE APPARENT IN BOTH
THE MPX FORECAST AND IN MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WHICH IS A GOOD PLACE TO
BE ON DAYS LIKE TODAY. WE ALMOST NEVER GO WARM ENOUGH...AND MODEL
OUTPUT TENDS TO RUN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL/MOIST WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE USED A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST AND THEN
ADJUSTED UP 5 DEGREES BASED ON THE 925-850MB THERMAL PROFILE AND
STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A BATCH
OF 10KFT CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...BUT WE THINK THIS WILL
CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN`T ARRIVE IN FAR EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL 18-00Z...SO BE PATIENT WITH THE WARMING
TODAY IN THESE AREAS. WE MIGHT END UP WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
4-4:30PM...RATHER THAN 2-3PM. BEHIND THE WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL COME A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE COULDN`T REALLY JUSTIFY RAISING POPS
TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOR TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE LIKELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE POST-FRONTAL SATURATION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
SOUTH OF HERE WE HAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AND A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHT QPF...BUT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND AND
THERE MIGHT BE A LOT OF VIRGA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TRACE-0.04" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FIRST OFF...IT`S NICE TO SEE THE 09.00Z ECMWF MOSTLY REMOVED THE
TWO SNOW EVENTS IT HAD LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS STARTING TO GARNER SOME
ATTENTION. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED MODEL OUTPUT IS STILL NOT
OPTIMISTIC IN MAINTAINING ANY SORT OF WARMTH AS WE TRANSITION FROM
SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COLD DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL /POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL/ FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU BUY THE SLOWER...DEEPER ECMWF.
THOSE 850 MB TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
FEBRUARY. THE GFS ISN`T QUITE AS BAD MON-WED...BUT THERE ARE SOME
GLARING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THERE
IS A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T
OVERLY STRONG. WE COULD STILL SHAKE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS AND RESPECTABLE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD
ALSO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 20-40DM HEIGHT FALLS
DURING THE DAY. SO...THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE OVER A LARGE AREA...SO IF
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES...WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MOVE TOWARD LIKELY
POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR XPCTD THRU THIS TAF PERIOD FOR ALL BUT KAXN DUE TO EARLY
EVENING INCOMING CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THAT FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THRU
DAYBREAK TMRW...THEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE W AHEAD OF A
CDFNT. MID-TO-UPR LVL CIGS DEVELOP LATE OVER WRN MN...BUT SCT
CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR CENTRAL-ERN MN INTO WRN WI TMRW. IN WRN
MN...SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS INFILTRATE THE AREA AFTER 00Z AND THIS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KAXN. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO WITH VSBY LOWER
THAN VFR BUT DID INDICATE MVFR CEILING. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN
AS THEY START OUT BACKING TO S WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO ARND 5 KT
OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SLY THRU DAYBREAK AND INCRS TO ARND 10
KT. AFTER DAYBREAK...STRONG SW WINDS DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS APCHG
20G30KT...AND SUCH SPEEDS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TMRW AFTN AND
EVE AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO W LATE.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH MIDLVL CEILINGS DEVELOP LATE WED
EVE INTO THU MRNG AHEAD OF AN APCHG CDFNT AND SOME SCTD -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS BACK TO S ARND MIDNIGHT WHILE SPEEDS DROP TO NEAR
5 KT. STRONGER SPEEDS XPCTD ARND SUNRISE TMRW...AND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO INCRS WHILE VEERING TO 210-230 TMRW AFTN. PREVAILING
WLY XPCTD BY TMRW EVE WITH SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED SPEEDS. AS FOR
CLOUDS...SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THEN HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP DURG
THE DAY TMRW WITH UPR- LVL CIGS LIKELY BY TMRW EVE THEN CIGS DROP
GOING INTO TMRW NGT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA EARLY. WINDS NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE WIND FAVORED AREAS. THE WEATHER ELEMENT
WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS STILL THE HUMIDITY. TOOK A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WORK IN THE GRIDS TO GET HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THESE TYPES OF WEATHER
PATTERNS...FORECAST MODELS RUN A COOL/MOIST BIAS...THE BIG QUESTION
FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE OVER CORRECTED FOR SAID COOL/MOIST
BIAS. FOR THE CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST TO WORK OUT...WE WILL NEED
TO SEE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO ABOVE 800 MB AS THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE AND ALSO HOPE WE DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH POOLING OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NODAK/NW MN BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-35
MPH WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WAS
DECIDED BY ALL OFFICES TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH THE
EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET IN SW MN /WHERE INITIAL WARNING WAS ISSUED/ AND
DOES GRADUALLY DECREASE SOME AS YOU HEAD EAST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
753 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 743 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Updated POPs to pull higher POPs further nwd thru this evening
mainly across the ern half of the CWA based on latest mdl guidance
and RADAR trends. Latest RAP/local WRF, and to a lesser extent the
HRRR, suggest main focus of precip will be the 850mb fnt
stretching from just n of KSET to K3LF region. Believe the sfc fnt
will remain capped enuf thru at least the next few hours to
prevent more than CU from forming. However, these mdls do suggest
the fnt may become more active after Midnight tonight. By that
time, the fnt shud be s of the CWA.
Have kept POPs in the chance cat, albeit the high end, as precip
is falling out of a 10 to 12 kft ceiling. Have also reduced TS
coverage to isod as generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE exist
across the region. Will continue to monitor trends thru the
evening and update as the situation changes.
Tilly
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front that is currently near a Springfield, IL to St. Louis to
Jefferson City line will continue to move southeast this evening.
The models show this front slowing down over the southern CWA
tonight. The RAP does show an increase in low level moisture
moisture convergence along and ahead of the front the next few hours
at the same time that the HRRR depicts scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern half of the CWA. Have
maintained chance pops for tonight. MOS lows tonight are in good
agreement and generally followed.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
(Friday - Saturday night)
Cold front is expected to be just south of CWA early Friday morning and
will become quasi-stationary by afternoon. Chance PoPs will be confined to
along/just north of aformentioned boundary for Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler on Friday by about 10 degrees for most locations behind the cold front.
Quasi-stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front Friday
night as lee-side cyclogenesis commences and mid/upper-level heights rise.
Expect Saturday to be mainly dry and kept dry forecast going as very strong
cap is forecast to exist according to NWP model soundings. In addition...
large-scale forcing for ascent looks fairly weak across the area indicating
cap will likely hold.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday night ahead of
approaching cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance as
CWA will remain in warm sector with increasing clouds and south winds
around 10 knots.
(Sunday - Sunday night)
An unsettled and wet period is forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as cold front
moves across the area. Negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject toward
the mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday evening with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected with cold frontal passage. Could also be some
strong thunderstorms through Sunday evening with ~30kts 0-6km shear and
modest instability though higher severe weather threat should exist over
the lower Mississippi Valley where much greater instability will reside.
Temperatures on Sunday look to be quite difficult as degree of cloudiness
and frontal passage timing are a bit uncertain. Leaned warmer than guidance
a couple of degrees for now based on current projections of fropa as most
of CWA would be ahead of front through early afternoon at least.
(Monday - Thursday)
Light rain may linger across portions of the area on Monday as secondary
shortwave trough moves southeastward. Temperatures with clouds and rain
chances along with strong CAA at low levels will yield a cold and raw
early/mid April day. Forecast highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50s far south
still look on track.
Two cold nights with near freezing low temperatures appear possible Monday
night as well as Tuesday night...especially for northern areas. If lows
do dip into the upper 20s...frost/freeze headlines may become necessary
as vegetation begins to grow/bloom...especially over the southern CWA.
Remainder of extended looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to
near normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
UPDATE: surface cold front has been a dud, but the 850mb cold
front has had no problem lighting up with SHRA where region of
decent moisture convergence exists. This is expected to continue
for a good part of the evening and perhaps early overnight if the
RAP model is to be believed. Main area of impact will be STL metro
sites.
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Any TSRA/SHRA associated with a cold front now to the
south and east of CPS should remain outside of vicinity
considerations but will keep a close eye on and amend as needed.
Otherwise, look for gradually veering light winds from the E by
late tonight and then becoming variable as a ridge of hi pressure
builds in.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru the period.
Any TSRA/SHRA associated with a cold front now to the south and
east of the terminal should remain outside of vicinity
considerations but will keep a close eye on and amend as needed.
Otherwise, look for winds to diminish this evening and then slowly
veer from the E by Friday morning and then becoming variable with
a ridge of high pressure building in. Finally, a light SE wind is
expected by Friday evening with departure of the ridge.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
741 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front that is currently near a Springfield, IL to St. Louis to
Jefferson City line will continue to move southeast this evening.
The models show this front slowing down over the southern CWA
tonight. The RAP does show an increase in low level moisture
moisture convergence along and ahead of the front the next few hours
at the same time that the HRRR depicts scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern half of the CWA. Have
maintained chance pops for tonight. MOS lows tonight are in good
agreement and generally followed.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
(Friday - Saturday night)
Cold front is expected to be just south of CWA early Friday morning and
will become quasi-stationary by afternoon. Chance PoPs will be confined to
along/just north of aformentioned boundary for Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler on Friday by about 10 degrees for most locations behind the cold front.
Quasi-stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front Friday
night as lee-side cyclogenesis commences and mid/upper-level heights rise.
Expect Saturday to be mainly dry and kept dry forecast going as very strong
cap is forecast to exist according to NWP model soundings. In addition...
large-scale forcing for ascent looks fairly weak across the area indicating
cap will likely hold.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday night ahead of
approaching cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance as
CWA will remain in warm sector with increasing clouds and south winds
around 10 knots.
(Sunday - Sunday night)
An unsettled and wet period is forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as cold front
moves across the area. Negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject toward
the mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday evening with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected with cold frontal passage. Could also be some
strong thunderstorms through Sunday evening with ~30kts 0-6km shear and
modest instability though higher severe weather threat should exist over
the lower Mississippi Valley where much greater instability will reside.
Temperatures on Sunday look to be quite difficult as degree of cloudiness
and frontal passage timing are a bit uncertain. Leaned warmer than guidance
a couple of degrees for now based on current projections of fropa as most
of CWA would be ahead of front through early afternoon at least.
(Monday - Thursday)
Light rain may linger across portions of the area on Monday as secondary
shortwave trough moves southeastward. Temperatures with clouds and rain
chances along with strong CAA at low levels will yield a cold and raw
early/mid April day. Forecast highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50s far south
still look on track.
Two cold nights with near freezing low temperatures appear possible Monday
night as well as Tuesday night...especially for northern areas. If lows
do dip into the upper 20s...frost/freeze headlines may become necessary
as vegetation begins to grow/bloom...especially over the southern CWA.
Remainder of extended looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to
near normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 740 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
UPDATE: surface cold front has been a dud, but the 850mb cold
front has had no problem lighting up with SHRA where region of
decent moisture convergence exists. This is expected to continue
for a good part of the evening and perhaps early overnight if the
RAP model is to be believed. Main area of impact will be STL metro
sites.
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Any TSRA/SHRA associated with a cold front now to the
south and east of CPS should remain outside of vicinity
considerations but will keep a close eye on and amend as needed.
Otherwise, look for gradually veering light winds from the E by
late tonight and then becoming variable as a ridge of hi pressure
builds in.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru the period.
Any TSRA/SHRA associated with a cold front now to the south and
east of the terminal should remain outside of vicinity
considerations but will keep a close eye on and amend as needed.
Otherwise, look for winds to diminish this evening and then slowly
veer from the E by Friday morning and then becoming variable with
a ridge of high pressure building in. Finally, a light SE wind is
expected by Friday evening with departure of the ridge.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front that is currently near a Springfield, IL to St. Louis to
Jefferson City line will continue to move southeast this evening.
The models show this front slowing down over the southern CWA
tonight. The RAP does show an increase in low level moisture
moisture convergence along and ahead of the front the next few hours
at the same time that the HRRR depicts scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern half of the CWA. Have
maintained chance pops for tonight. MOS lows tonight are in good
agreement and generally followed.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
(Friday - Saturday night)
Cold front is expected to be just south of CWA early Friday morning and
will become quasi-stationary by afternoon. Chance PoPs will be confined to
along/just north of aformentioned boundary for Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler on Friday by about 10 degrees for most locations behind the cold front.
Quasi-stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front Friday
night as lee-side cyclogenesis commences and mid/upper-level heights rise.
Expect Saturday to be mainly dry and kept dry forecast going as very strong
cap is forecast to exist according to NWP model soundings. In addition...
large-scale forcing for ascent looks fairly weak across the area indicating
cap will likely hold.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday night ahead of
approaching cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance as
CWA will remain in warm sector with increasing clouds and south winds
around 10 knots.
(Sunday - Sunday night)
An unsettled and wet period is forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as cold front
moves across the area. Negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject toward
the mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday evening with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected with cold frontal passage. Could also be some
strong thunderstorms through Sunday evening with ~30kts 0-6km shear and
modest instability though higher severe weather threat should exist over
the lower Mississippi Valley where much greater instability will reside.
Temperatures on Sunday look to be quite difficult as degree of cloudiness
and frontal passage timing are a bit uncertain. Leaned warmer than guidance
a couple of degrees for now based on current projections of fropa as most
of CWA would be ahead of front through early afternoon at least.
(Monday - Thursday)
Light rain may linger across portions of the area on Monday as secondary
shortwave trough moves southeastward. Temperatures with clouds and rain
chances along with strong CAA at low levels will yield a cold and raw
early/mid April day. Forecast highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50s far south
still look on track.
Two cold nights with near freezing low temperatures appear possible Monday
night as well as Tuesday night...especially for northern areas. If lows
do dip into the upper 20s...frost/freeze headlines may become necessary
as vegetation begins to grow/bloom...especially over the southern CWA.
Remainder of extended looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to
near normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Any TSRA/SHRA associated with a cold front now to the
south and east of CPS should remain outside of vicinity
considerations but will keep a close eye on and amend as needed.
Otherwise, look for gradually veering light winds from the E by
late tonight and then becoming variable as a ridge of hi pressure
builds in.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru the period.
Any TSRA/SHRA associated with a cold front now to the south and
east of the terminal should remain outside of vicinity
considerations but will keep a close eye on and amend as needed.
Otherwise, look for winds to diminish this evening and then slowly
veer from the E by Friday morning and then becoming variable with
a ridge of high pressure building in. Finally, a light SE wind is
expected by Friday evening with departure of the ridge.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Good evening to all across extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks.
Showers were gradually dissipating over the eastern Ozarks as we
approached the 7 pm hour. RAP analysis suggested that most
unstable CAPES had fallen to below 100 j/kg in this area.
Therefore we updated the HWO and took thunder out of the forecast.
We also loaded in the CONSSHORT hourly temperature guidance
through the rest of tonight. This guidance gave us lows ranging
from the low to mid 30s. Given the clear skies and calm surface
winds, frost is likely in nearly all locations tonight.
Just a reminder, frost and freeze headlines are scheduled to begin
next week.
Have a good one !
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
A digging upper level jet and shortwave over the western cwfa on
the back side of a longer wave trough axis over the MS Vly is
producing some scattered showers and thunderstorms. An uptick in
precip coverage has occurred with diurnal heating and increased
but still modest mlcape. Some very small hail has occurred with
low freezing levels/cold air aloft. This should be the last of the
precip as the trough shifts east and strong mid level height rises
move into the region from the west. Drier air will advect into the
region tonight as a sfc ridge axis moves overhead by 12z Wed.
Light winds and a clearing sky should allow frost to form with
temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.
A dry south return flow will increase on Wed with breezy
conditions, especially over the northwest half of the cwfa.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be a concern. Some greening
of grass fuels has occurred over the past couple of weeks, and the
main concerns fuels wise will be longer dead/cured grasses and forest
leaf litter. No fire weather headlines are planned, but will
continue to highlight elevated concerns in the HWO. After a chilly
start Wed, temperatures will warm nicely into the mid 60s to low 70s
with warmest temperatures over the western cwfa.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
Mild/warm weather will continue Wed night and Thu ahead of an
approaching sfc trough/front. A fast moving shortwave will aid in
overall lift to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms near
the sfc boundary as it`s progress slows over the area Fri.
A more substantial upper level system will develop over the
Western U.S. as northern stream system phases with a Pacific based
system. A prolonged and increasingly more substantial Gulf
moisture fetch will develop over the weekend with precip
developing along an approaching sfc boundary. Will have fairly
high rain/tstm chances Sunday and Sunday night.
Will have to watch the frost/freeze potential early next week with
cold Canadian air nosing into the area behind the front. The 00z
ECMWF, and to some extent the 12z GEM, are more bullish with
colder air versus the 12z GFS. Will watch trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
Light and variable winds will continue, and eventually increase to
around 10 mph from the south southwest on Wednesday morning.
Skies should remain clear, and no obstructions to visibilities are
expected.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
102 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SKIES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
AT 08Z WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 40 TO 45 MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...NOT TOO FAR FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS OCCURS...A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND 20C...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND
WITH THIS SETUP GUIDANCE TO LIKELY UNDER FCST HIGHS. ALSO WILL SEE A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND CONTINUED FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 80.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
BY 07Z THURSDAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT IS PUSHING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LI`S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NCTRL
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
THERE AFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 02Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...SOLID SURFACE HEATING WILL WORK WITH STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THEREAFTER THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
WAVE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAINS
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA PROFILE. HIGHS WILL
RETURN BACK INTO THE 70 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND CURED
FUELS. ATTM MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON /~20 PERCENT/...WITH THE LOWEST
READINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FIRE ZONES /204 & 210/. WIND SPEEDS
ARE IN QUESTION TOO...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL OF
LESS THAN 20 MPH. ATTM NO ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
FOR SATURDAY...MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL USHER A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ATOP WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH STRONG CAA FILLING SOUTH...BUT THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ARRIVAL SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT ARRIVES
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR QPF...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS COME BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. STRONG CAA
TO FILTER SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXTENDED NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. H85 T/S ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...BUT 2M T/S ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL RETAIN RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
THE PRIMARY PTYPES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL...IT MAY STRUGGLE TO COLLECT ON ANYTHING BESIDE GRASSY
SURFACES. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO FORCE THE
COLD AIR EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK...WITH LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE. ECMWF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER WEAK ARCTIC HIGH...THE GFS EVENTUALLY DROPS A CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IS 24-36 SLOWER THAN THE EC
CAMP. SO BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...FORECAST CONSISTENCY IS LOW...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY EVENING. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE LOW AS DRY AIR WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. TOMORROW WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE
AVIATION CONCERNS AS WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY...WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE 25 TO 30 AND
SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DEW POINTS TO BE HIGHER TODAY. FOLLOWED LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS AND DROPPED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING MODEL GUIDANCE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 07Z RAP MODEL FORECASTING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS FROM THEDFORD SOUTHWEST THROUGH IMPERIAL WITH LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW POINT
TRENDS CLOSELY TODAY. RESULTING RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL AT TIMES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 MPH BY 21Z. THUS RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SKIES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
AT 08Z WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 40 TO 45 MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...NOT TOO FAR FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS OCCURS...A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND 20C...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND
WITH THIS SETUP GUIDANCE TO LIKELY UNDER FCST HIGHS. ALSO WILL SEE A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND CONTINUED FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 80.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
BY 07Z THURSDAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT IS PUSHING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LI`S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NCTRL
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
THERE AFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 02Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...SOLID SURFACE HEATING WILL WORK WITH STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THEREAFTER THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
WAVE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAINS
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA PROFILE. HIGHS WILL
RETURN BACK INTO THE 70 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND CURED
FUELS. ATTM MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON /~20 PERCENT/...WITH THE LOWEST
READINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FIRE ZONES /204 & 210/. WIND SPEEDS
ARE IN QUESTION TOO...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL OF
LESS THAN 20 MPH. ATTM NO ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
FOR SATURDAY...MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL USHER A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ATOP WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH STRONG CAA FILLING SOUTH...BUT THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ARRIVAL SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT ARRIVES
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR QPF...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS COME BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. STRONG CAA
TO FILTER SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXTENDED NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. H85 T/S ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...BUT 2M T/S ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL RETAIN RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
THE PRIMARY PTYPES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL...IT MAY STRUGGLE TO COLLECT ON ANYTHING BESIDE GRASSY
SURFACES. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO FORCE THE
COLD AIR EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK...WITH LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE. ECMWF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER WEAK ARCTIC HIGH...THE GFS EVENTUALLY DROPS A CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IS 24-36 SLOWER THAN THE EC
CAMP. SO BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...FORECAST CONSISTENCY IS LOW...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN A FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND 250-270 WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY TO 14-18G24-28KT BY 18Z. WIND WILL THEN DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO 310-340 AT
14-18G22-24KT. ALSO...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH
AND THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE SITE IS
VERY LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY...WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE 25 TO 30 AND
SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DEW POINTS TO BE HIGHER TODAY. FOLLOWED LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS AND DROPPED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING MODEL GUIDANCE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 07Z RAP MODEL FORECASTING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS FROM THEDFORD SOUTHWEST THROUGH IMPERIAL WITH LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW POINT
TRENDS CLOSELY TODAY. RESULTING RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL AT TIMES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 MPH BY 21Z. THUS RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SKIES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
AT 08Z WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 40 TO 45 MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...NOT TOO FAR FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS OCCURS...A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND 20C...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND
WITH THIS SETUP GUIDANCE TO LIKELY UNDER FCST HIGHS. ALSO WILL SEE A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND CONTINUED FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 80.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
BY 07Z THURSDAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT IS PUSHING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LI`S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NCTRL
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
THERE AFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 02Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...SOLID SURFACE HEATING WILL WORK WITH STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THEREAFTER THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
WAVE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAINS
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA PROFILE. HIGHS WILL
RETURN BACK INTO THE 70 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND CURED
FUELS. ATTM MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON /~20 PERCENT/...WITH THE LOWEST
READINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FIRE ZONES /204 & 210/. WIND SPEEDS
ARE IN QUESTION TOO...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL OF
LESS THAN 20 MPH. ATTM NO ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
FOR SATURDAY...MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL USHER A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ATOP WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH STRONG CAA FILLING SOUTH...BUT THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ARRIVAL SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT ARRIVES
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR QPF...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS COME BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. STRONG CAA
TO FILTER SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXTENDED NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. H85 T/S ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...BUT 2M T/S ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL RETAIN RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
THE PRIMARY PTYPES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL...IT MAY STRUGGLE TO COLLECT ON ANYTHING BESIDE GRASSY
SURFACES. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO FORCE THE
COLD AIR EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK...WITH LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE. ECMWF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER WEAK ARCTIC HIGH...THE GFS EVENTUALLY DROPS A CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IS 24-36 SLOWER THAN THE EC
CAMP. SO BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...FORECAST CONSISTENCY IS LOW...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THEN A FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY TO 14-18G24-28KT BY 18Z. WIND WILL THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO 310-340 AT
12-14G22-24KT. ALSO...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH AND
THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE SITE IS VERY
LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY...WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE 25 TO 30 AND
SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DEW POINTS TO BE HIGHER TODAY. FOLLOWED LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS AND DROPPED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING MODEL GUIDANCE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 07Z RAP MODEL FORECASTING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS FROM THEDFORD SOUTHWEST THROUGH IMPERIAL WITH LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW POINT
TRENDS CLOSELY TODAY. RESULTING RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL AT TIMES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 MPH BY 21Z. THUS RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1057 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL END
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WITH A
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z. RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING
SHOWERS LASTING FOR ABOUT A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS STILL GUSTY AT
TIMES...BUT THESE WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAINFREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
LOW END VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND
TO WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1047 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...DID AN UPDATE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING
RADAR RETURNS AND PRECIP. SHORT WAVE MENTIONED BELOW FROM THE MID
WEST WAS RAPIDLY WORKING E AND AS A RESULT THE CD FRNT WAS ON THE
MOVE REACHING INTO FAR NW PART OF NY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD AS THIS SHRT WAVE RACES EAST AND CLEAR NE PA BY 11-12Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN CLOSE TO FROPA AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE FRNT AS THIS WAVE PASSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT
THIS TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY
WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000
FEET WITH THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING
ARND 9000 TO 10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO
REACHING THE GRND. METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER
LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO 4K FT.
ABOUT A FOUR TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
WITH FROPA. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND
04Z. BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KITH/KBGM
AND POSSIBLE AT SYR/RME. AFTER 12Z JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AT KAVP, UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
AROUND DAYBREAK THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVE
DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 04Z. BECOMING W/NW AFTER FROPA AROUND
5-10 KNOTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1042 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL END
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING JUST A BRIEF SHOT OF
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAINFREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR...THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...BEFORE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
815 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT THIS
TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY WELL-
MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000 FEET WITH
THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING ARND 9000 TO
10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS. MOST OF THE RADAR
RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO REACHING THE GRND.
METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA
INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO 4K FT.
ABOUT A FOUR TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
WITH FROPA. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND
04Z. BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KITH/KBGM
AND POSSIBLE AT SYR/RME. AFTER 12Z JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AT KAVP, UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
AROUND DAYBREAK THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVE
DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 04Z. BECOMING W/NW AFTER FROPA AROUND
5-10 KNOTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
759 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING JUST A BRIEF SHOT OF
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAINFREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR...THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...BEFORE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1123 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONS
WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SAT IMAGERY...SPECIFICALLY THE IR
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL...ILLUSTRATES A RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS SKY AT
THIS TIME ACROSS THE FA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FROM
ACROSS THE FA DURING THE OVERNITE PERIOD INDICATE POSSIBLE THIN
CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME TRAPPED
MOISTURE BELOW 850MB...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR FEW/SCATTERED 4K-6K FOOT
STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS IE. 18Z INDICATE A
MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL ATM COLUMN WITH OVERALL PWS BELOW 0.40
INCHES...WITH MUCH OF IT CONCENTRATED WITHIN 6K FT OF THE SFC.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITION STILL LOOKS AOK
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC BASED INVERSION NOT AS
PROMINENT OR STRONG LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT
WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT FULLY DECOUPLE. THE HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE ITS RELATIVE PRESENCE BUT ALSO ILLUSTRATES PROGGED
SW WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT JUST OFF THE DECK LATER TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT POSSIBLE AVIATION CONCERNS WITH THIS POTENTIAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. HAVE STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AROUND 50
INLAND...WHICH ALL MAY STILL BE TOO LOW IF SSW-SW WINDS REMAIN
QUITE ACTIVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...FAIR AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IN
A LAYER CENTERED ALONG 800 MB WAS TRIPPING OFF A FEW 6000 FT
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE FULLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSOLVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE PRE-DAWN AND
DAYBREAK HOURS...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS...AND 100 METER WINDS PER LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW SSW FLOW AT 20 KT SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SFC.
THIS WILL OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT GOOD TEMPERATURE
DROPS EXPECTED STILL THE SAME UNDER A CLEAR DOME...WITH MINIMUMS
SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES...COOLEST INLAND AND
MILDEST BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT A COLD FRONT AND IT WILL STALL ALONG THE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST WITH A TRUE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY...PURE
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ON
SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE LATER WILL KEEP MODIFIED
MARINE ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST BOTH SURFACE
AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY FOR A SUNNY AND MILD DAY. BOTH PROGRESS
EASTWARD ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODELS HINTING AT JUST ENOUGH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE MORE PRECIPITOUSLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. NOT ONLY DOES SW FLOW INCREASE BUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT SHOULD COUPLE WITH
THE CONTINUED MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE
PVA. BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN SOON THEREAFTER. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT CENTER
INDUCES A WAVE OFF THE COAST. IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND TO
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT THE
20/SLIGHT FOR NOW AS IN PREV FCST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY. COOLER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY
WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOUR OR TWO...
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST...BECOMING LIGHTER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG...DO NOT OVERALL ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AND A PRESENT LOW-LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND FEW/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING.
ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SFC SSW-SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
TIGHTER SFC PG THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE SFC WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN A SOLID 10-15 KT OR AROUND 15 KT. THE LOCAL SSTS AROUND
60 REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
DECK FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC...OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE
INDICATED WIND GUSTS ATLEAST UP TO 20 KT WITH THE CONTEMPLATION
OF A SCEC. HOWEVER...THESE GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE WARM GULF STREAM SST
INFLUENCES OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT 15-20 NM OUT FROM CAPE FEAR.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AROUND 9 SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...VERY NEARLY A BERMUDA HIGH SUMMER
REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST EAST OF 70W BUT REMAINS
EXTENDED WSW INTO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL JETTING DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SURFACE...AND WITH
WARMER WATERS WELL OFFSHORE...THIS IS WHERE HIGHER WINDS WILL
RESIDE. SW 10-15KT NEAR SHORE BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT FARTHER EAST AND
MAINLY BEYOND 10NM. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. SEAS HEIGHTS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER PORTION AND THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF SE WAVE 2 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. WATER
TEMPS NEAR-SHORE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAND PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER
60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
THE COAST AND WINDS ARE EXPECT BLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 10
KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
COAST ON SATURDAY AND WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE...NOT SO MUCH IN ITS BERMUDA POSITION BUT
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS
QUITE MINIMAL. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE FLOW SOME AND BRING A SMALL VEER AND ADD A FEW KNOTS
OF SPEED. THIS SHOULD ADD ABOUT A FOOT TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAINLY AWAY FROM SHORE. ON MONDAY HOWEVER THIS RAMP UP WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED AND CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. TUESDAY FROPA BRINGS SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE BUT
ADVISORY LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL FORM A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENED LOCALLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
926 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONS
WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...LATEST SAT IMAGERY...SPECIFICALLY THE IR
11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL...ILLUSTRATES A RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS SKY AT
THIS TIME. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FROM ACROSS THE FA
DURING THE OVERNITE PERIOD INDICATE POSSIBLE THIN CIRRUS FROM
UPSTREAM LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW
850MB...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR FEW/SCATTERED 4K-6K FOOT STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS 18Z INDICATE A MUCH DRIER LOW
LEVEL ATM COLUMN WITH OVERALL PRECIPITAL WATER BELOW 0.40
INCHES...WITH MUCH OF IT CONCENTRATED WITHIN 6K FT OF THE SFC.
WITH ALL THIS SAID...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITION STILL LOOKS AOK.
MODELS INDICATE THE SFC BASED INVERSION NOT AS PROMINENT OR
STRONG LIKE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
FULLY DECOUPLE. THE HOURLY NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE ITS
RELATIVE PRESENCE BUT PROGGED SW WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT JUST OFF
THE DECK. LOOKING AT POSSIBLE AVIATION CONCERNS WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HAVE STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS...WITH WIDESPREAD 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AROUND 50
INLAND...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...FAIR AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IN
A LAYER CENTERED ALONG 800 MB WAS TRIPPING OFF A FEW 6000 FT
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE FULLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSOLVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE PRE-DAWN AND
DAYBREAK HOURS...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS...AND 100 METER WINDS PER LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW SSW FLOW AT 20 KT SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SFC.
THIS WILL OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT GOOD TEMPERATURE
DROPS EXPECTED STILL THE SAME UNDER A CLEAR DOME...WITH MINIMUMS
SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES...COOLEST INLAND AND
MILDEST BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT A COLD FRONT AND IT WILL STALL ALONG THE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST WITH A TRUE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY...PURE
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ON
SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE LATER WILL KEEP MODIFIED
MARINE ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST BOTH SURFACE
AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY FOR A SUNNY AND MILD DAY. BOTH PROGRESS
EASTWARD ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODELS HINTING AT JUST ENOUGH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE MORE PRECIPITOUSLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. NOT ONLY DOES SW FLOW INCREASE BUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT SHOULD COUPLE WITH
THE CONTINUED MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE
PVA. BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN SOON THEREAFTER. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT CENTER
INDUCES A WAVE OFF THE COAST. IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND TO
BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT THE
20/SLIGHT FOR NOW AS IN PREV FCST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY. COOLER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY
WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOUR OR TWO...
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST...BECOMING LIGHTER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG...DO NOT OVERALL ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AND A PRESENT LOW-LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND FEW/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING.
ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM THURSDAY...SFC SSW-SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
TIGHTER SFC PG THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL UP THE SFC WINDS
BY 5 KT TO A SOLID 10-15 KT OR AROUND 15 KT. THE LOCAL SSTS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60 REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC...OTHERWISE WOULD
HAVE INDICATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THESE GUSTS MAY STILL
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR WHERE
WARM GULF STREAM SST INFLUENCES OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN
IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT 15-20 NM OUT FROM
CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AROUND 9 SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...VERY NEARLY A BERMUDA HIGH SUMMER
REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST EAST OF 70W BUT REMAINS
EXTENDED WSW INTO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL JETTING DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SURFACE...AND WITH
WARMER WATERS WELL OFFSHORE...THIS IS WHERE HIGHER WINDS WILL
RESIDE. SW 10-15KT NEAR SHORE BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT FARTHER EAST AND
MAINLY BEYOND 10NM. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. SEAS HEIGHTS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER PORTION AND THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF SE WAVE 2 FT
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. WATER
TEMPS NEAR-SHORE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAND PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER
60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
THE COAST AND WINDS ARE EXPECT BLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 10
KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
COAST ON SATURDAY AND WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE...NOT SO MUCH IN ITS BERMUDA POSITION BUT
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS
QUITE MINIMAL. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE FLOW SOME AND BRING A SMALL VEER AND ADD A FEW KNOTS
OF SPEED. THIS SHOULD ADD ABOUT A FOOT TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAINLY AWAY FROM SHORE. ON MONDAY HOWEVER THIS RAMP UP WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED AND CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. TUESDAY FROPA BRINGS SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE BUT
ADVISORY LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL FORM A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENED LOCALLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH
NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
725 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONS
WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...FAIR AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IN
A LAYER CENTERED ALONG 800 MB WAS TRIPPING OFF A FEW 6000 FT
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE FULLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSOLVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE PRE-DAWN AND
DAYBREAK HOURS...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS...AND 100 METER WINDS PER LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW SSW FLOW AT 20 KT SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SFC.
THIS WILL OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT GOOD TEMPERATURE
DROPS EXPECTED STILL THE SAME UNDER A CLEAR DOME...WITH MINIMUMS
SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES...COOLEST INLAND AND
MILDEST BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT A COLD FRONT AND IT WILL STALL ALONG THE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST WITH A TRUE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY...PURE
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ON
SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE LATER WILL KEEP MODIFIED
MARINE ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT ON SUNDAY FOR A SUNNY AND MILD DAY. BOTH PROGRESS EASTWARD
ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MODELS HINTING AT JUST ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MORE PRECIPITOUSLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT ONLY
DOES SW FLOW INCREASE BUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT SHOULD COUPLE WITH THE CONTINUED
MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE PVA. BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING
IN SOON THEREAFTER. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT CENTER INDUCES A WAVE
OFF THE COAST. IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND TO BRING ANOTHER
BATCH OF RAIN BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT THE 20/SLIGHT FOR NOW
AS IN PREV FCST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY. COOLER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE
SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HOUR OR TWO...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEENDS ALONG THE COAST...BECOMING LIGHTER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG...DO NOT OVERALL ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AND A PRESENT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST WITH SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FEW/SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING. ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO
SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...VERY NEARLY A BERMUDA HIGH SUMMER REGIME
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST EAST OF 70W BUT REMAINS EXTENDED WSW
INTO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SURFACE...AND WITH WARMER
WATERS WELL OFFSHORE...THIS IS WHERE HIGHER WINDS WILL RESIDE. SW
10-15KT NEAR SHORE BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT FARTHER EAST AND MAINLY
BEYOND 10NM. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. SEAS HEIGHTS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER
PORTION AND THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF SE WAVE 2 FT EVERY
8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. WATER TEMPS
NEAR-SHORE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAND PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
THE COAST AND WINDS ARE EXPECT BLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 10
KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
COAST ON SATURDAY AND WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE...NOT SO MUCH IN ITS BERMUDA POSITION BUT
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS
QUITE MINIMAL. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE FLOW SOME AND BRING A SMALL VEER AND ADD A FEW KNOTS
OF SPEED. THIS SHOULD ADD ABOUT A FOOT TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAINLY AWAY FROM SHORE. ON MONDAY HOWEVER THIS RAMP UP WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED AND CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. TUESDAY FROPA BRINGS SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE BUT
ADVISORY LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL FORM A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENED LOCALLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY OFFSHORE DURING
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL UPDATE EARLY TO RAISE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. PER LATEST RUNS
OF THE 3KM HRRR...4 KM WRF AND RAP MODELS...BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH
AXIS OF 500 MB TROUGH SWINGING EAST...IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND GRADUAL DRYING OF THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THINK ANY PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND 15Z WILL
BE MINIMAL. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER
60S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SCOUR
OUT TONIGHT AS AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS AWAY FROM THE WATER WILL RANGE FROM 43 TO 48
DEGREES WITH LOWER 50S OUTER BANKS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THE ECMWF LINES UP BEST
WITH HPC SURFACE SOLUTION. RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH WEATHER GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THEN SHIFTING EAST IN ADVANCE OF RATHER DEEP UPPER
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE
COAST AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO NO RAIN IS FORECAST. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TUESDAY INCREASING TO
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE
VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DRIER DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOW ENOUGH OF A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WHERE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL BE DROPPING THE SCA SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE ON THIS UPDATE AS SEAS ARE AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS/ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE
WITH POST-FRONTAL SURGE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. DIAMOND BUOY IS
GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS AND HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION IS GUSTING TO
27 KNOTS AS OF 10Z. DID RAISE PAMLICO SOUND TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS AS
SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S ARE BEING OBSERVED THERE AS WELL. AS
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD...WINDS SHOULD DROP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY
THURSDAY MORNING MOST AREAS BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20
KNOTS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS A RESULT WITH
WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15
KNOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY OFFSHORE DURING
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL UPDATE EARLY TO RAISE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. PER LATEST RUNS
OF THE 3KM HRRR...4 KM WRF AND RAP MODELS...BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH
AXIS OF 500 MB TROUGH SWINGING EAST...IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND GRADUAL DRYING OF THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THINK ANY PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND 15Z WILL
BE MINIMAL. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER
60S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SCOUR
OUT TONIGHT AS AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS AWAY FROM THE WATER WILL RANGE FROM 43 TO 48
DEGREES WITH LOWER 50S OUTER BANKS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THE ECMWF LINES UP BEST
WITH HPC SURFACE SOLUTION. RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH WEATHER GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THEN SHIFTING EAST IN ADVANCE OF RATHER DEEP UPPER
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE
COAST AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO NO RAIN IS FORECAST. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TUESDAY INCREASING TO
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE
CURRENTLY BUT AXIS OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KISO...KOAJ
AND KEWN. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. ONLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOW ENOUGH OF A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WHERE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR DIAMOND BUOY WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
25 KNOTS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET...BUT SOME 6 FOOT SEAS
ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
SLATED TO END FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO LEGS AT 7 AM AND THIS WILL
PROBABLY WORK OUT. OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS...SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DROPPED BY LATE
TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
HOLD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING MOST AREAS BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 KNOTS
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR ALBEMARLE
SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS A RESULT WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15
KNOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...
A LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY WED...WHILE A TRAILING
ONE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WED AFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PAIR OF TROUGHS HAS SUPPORTED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 5-10
THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE OH...TN...AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PAST AFT-EVE.
THOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS STILL VERY SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO JUST A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FT LAYER BELOW H7 IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
PER 00Z RNK AND GSO RAOB DATA...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE/SATURATION WILL DEEPEN INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NC...ALBEIT ONLY BRIEFLY...OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A SIGNAL FROM NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING FROM RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP...TO WARRANT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOLID
RAIN CHANCES (BUT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT RAIN...THE BACK EDGE OF WHICH
MAY EDGE WEST TO NEAR RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS...WILL THEN MOVE
QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NC COASTAL AREAS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
LOWS...AMIDST ONLY WEAK CAA...AND HINDERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
THICKENING-DEEPENING CLOUD COVER...ARE LIKELY TO ONLY DIP INTO THE
MID 40S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE 0ZZ SFC DEWPOINTS WERE
RUNNING IN THE MID 30S...TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF
THE EARLIER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FINAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...MAINLY BETWEEN AROUND
850 AND 500 MB REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NOTABLE DRYING ABOVE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD AND SOME
MODEST SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE
TO 850 LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9 DEG/KM WED AFTERNOON WITH 850 TO 700
OR 500 MB LAPSE RATES RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 8 DEG C/KM. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMIT
SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS TOWARD MIDDAY AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND UPDRAFTS LIKELY WONT
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS SHOULD BE WATCHED AS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD INCLUDE SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5-6KFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CHILLY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY FAVORABLE. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
STABILIZED AND MODERATED SLIGHTLY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WHEN IT
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MOST RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR GREENSBORO HAD A
LOW TEMP OF 41 FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...40 FROM A 21 MEMBER MEAN
AND A COLDEST MEMBER WITH A LOW OF 39. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY FROST
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY...INITIATING
A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZE. RISING HEIGHTS SHOWING A
WARMUP OF AROUND 3 DEGREES...TAKING US UP TO 70-75 UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. MILD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WARMING TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 75 TO 80 AFTER A MORNING MIN IN THE
UPPER 40S.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL NUDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH AND INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF STATES...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT STALLS OVER OR SOUTH OF
THE AREA. SATURDAY MORNING MINS WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOWER
50S...WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY PRODUCING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REESTABLISH THE WARM AIRMASS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH DEEPER AND STRENGTHENING FLOW
AHEAD OF UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE LOWER PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE WEST SUNDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH 75 TO
80...AS THE UPPER TROF SHARPENS...THERE WILL BE A SOLID CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 75 TO 80.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIVERGENCE AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURAL DETAILS OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
REGARDLESS...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE ON THE RISE
AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF FEATURES WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE STRONGER CONVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE...UPPER DIFFLUENCE...LOW
LEVEL JET >45KT...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP IN LATER RUNS.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO HEAVY CLOUD COVERAGE AND
RAIN...IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND TODAY.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND IS
HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFAY/KRDU/KRWI... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT KFAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. IF ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCUR EXPECT THEY WOULD BE BRIEF AND PROBABLY
FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES (MVFR). THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL NC TAF SITES BY 12Z OR SO. THUS... WILL JUST ADD
A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA MID TO
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
ANY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AT
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT
OF AT LEAST SHOWERS FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE AT ITS BEST. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... CANT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER... GIVEN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT
MOISTURE/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WIL PRODUCE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BLAES
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
347 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REACH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. CURRENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER EASTERN DICKEY
COUNTY WITH STRONGEST WINDS YET TO ARRIVE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH...HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY...THUS
THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 8 PM LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-019>023-034-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-035>037-
045>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE TEMPERATURE
FELL FROM 59 TO 50 DEGREES IN CROSBY DURING THE PAST HOUR. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW
70S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RADAR
COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. LATEST RAP
AND HRRR ARE INDICATING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SPREADING WEST TO EAST...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY AND BUMPED UP WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON FIRE WEATHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BETTER TRACK CLOUD
COVER BY INCREASING THE AMOUNT TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WEST THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HELD OFF IN ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 21Z. THE DURATION/STRENGTH/AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO
THE DOWNDRAFT/EVAPORATION AL PROCESSES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT VERSUS COLD AIR ADVECTION/MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES. INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDINGS AT KBIS AND KJMS AS THE FRONT MOVES POSES A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS PER SPC DISCUSSION.
THIS IS ALSO IS IN THE NON-WIND ADVISORY AREA MENTIONED ABOVE.
BASED ON TUESDAYS HIGHS AND 850MB TEMPS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS INTO
THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. DEEP MIXING WITH H850 TEMPS PEAKING OUT AT
+12C TO +13C EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A SPIKE IN HIGH
TEMPS TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SFC. MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED
APR 9 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK REX BLOCK
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN US. THIS LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM
H5 TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US AND CANADA AND
SIGNALS A RETURN TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER WHAT WILL BE
SOME OF THE MILDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SPRING ON WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES (BUT REALLY NEAR NORMAL) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A HEALTHY LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL US PLAINS BY SUNDAY THAT
WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ALLBLEND GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ARE NOT DISPUTED AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SAW NOTHING TO CAUSE THE
DEPARTURE FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REACH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF AND ABR...AND TALKING WITH THE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGER IN DICKEY COUNTY...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS NOT LARGE...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTION A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES
OVER DICKEY COUNTY BY MID AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGER SUGGESTS
THAT TALL VEGETATION IS VERY DRY AND SHOULD ANY FIRES
START IN THIS VEGETATION...THEY WOULD SPREAD VERY QUICKLY...EVEN
GIVEN THE WET SOILS. WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON A WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT
NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED. THUS HAVE
ISSUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY AND IN
ADDITION...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER OUR SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE RFW GOES THROUGH 8 PM...WITH THE ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 10 PM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ACROSS THE HEART RIVER BASIN...FLOWS ARE DECREASING UPSTREAM OF
DICKINSON...WITH THE LEAD PULSE OF THE WATER CURRENTLY BEING
ATTENUATED BY HEART BUTTE DAM.
ACROSS THE CEDAR CREEK AND CANNONBALL BASINS...ELEVATED FLOWS ARE
NOTED FROM THE HEADWATERS...TO THE CONFLUENCE NEAR RALEIGH. FLOOD
STAGE IS POSSIBLE ON THE CANNONBALL NEAR BREIEN OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
FINALLY...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOURIS NEAR
TOWNER AND THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-019>023-034-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ025-035>037-045>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
CROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD...STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HAS MOVED
THROUGH MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THERE WERE A FEW
SPRINKLES...MAYBE A FLURRY ACROSS NW PA...AS THE FRONT PASSED.
BELIEVE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS DONE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE IT THE COOLEST NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO A LEAST SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST MOTION. SO
WE HAVE DELAYED THE RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE THE LOW IS SO FAR NORTH IN
ONTARIO THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG PUSH TO THE FRONT WITH IT ONLY
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN OHIO AS A RIPPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. THIS WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70S A POSSIBILITY IF
THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN TOO MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COOLER FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE OF SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE BUT NOT CLEAR CUT FORECAST WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS IN MOVING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EITHER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY KEPT IT AS CHANCE POPS. DID ADD THUNDER TO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALSO SOME
CONCERN ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE CORRECT AS THEY BRING IN SOME COLD AIR.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WAS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER. SOME CLOUDINESS WAS
BEHIND IT. THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT SITES INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS WERE BACKING DOWN ON THIS INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL. THE
ONLY TAF SITE THAT MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN MVFR
CEILINGS IS YNG. OTHERWISE AS THE DAY GOES ON THE CLOUDS WILL MIX
OUT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AND
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WERE A LITTLE
GUSTY NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WITH LAKE SO COLD...NOT EXPECTING THE REAL STRONG WINDS TO REACH
THE SURFACE. SOME CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY WITH
THE FROPA AND THAT MAY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A SHORT
TIME UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN. WINDS COULD BE NEAR GALE FORCE...BUT
MAINLY JUST TO 30 KNOTS.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THAT
COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO MONDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTION ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND BRING IN DRY AND
WARMING HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
ATTM FROM THE ASHEVILLE AREA NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA...IN AREA OF
WEAK Q-VEC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF RIPPLE EMBEDDED IN THE BACK SIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING OVER OUR AREA HOWEVER.
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TO SOME DEGREE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
RESPONSE SEEN ON EARLIER RUNS AS THIS RIPPLE MOVES EAST THRU THE FA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BRINGING SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ACRS. RAP PROG
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL AMT OF SFC BASED CAPE OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FA DEVELOPING LATER THIS MRNG AND LASTING UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER TODAY...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE LIMITED ACTIVITY SO FAR AND THE RELATIVELY
BRIEF WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...KEPT POPS IN SCHC RANGE.
THUNDER MENTION HOWEVER WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND NOW BETTER
REFLECTS THE AREA OF BEST OVERLAPPING FORCING AND INSTBY. TEMPS AND
DEWPTS WERE REVISED THIS MRNG BUT OVERALL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 300 AM EDT...NW WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT MIDDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST BETWEEN A DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM...AND
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURE
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...AND
WIN GUSTS WILL ABATE. DEW POINT DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST STILL LOOKS RATHER
PLEASANT. SRN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY THU AND
TRANSITION OFF THE ATL COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW CONSISTING MAINLY OF POCKETS OF DNVA...THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME DEEPER CI ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST FRI.
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL ENABLE FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BOTH
AFTERNOONS THU/FRI AND RH PERCENTAGES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCALES THU. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN TOO
LOW FOR A FIRE WX CONCERN OUTSIDE OF THE GA COUNTIES WHERE FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS COULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR AN SPS MENTION BY THAT TIME.
A NRN STREAM S/W WILL CROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRI NIGHT WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DPVA CROSSING THE NC MTNS AFT 03Z SAT. HOWEVER...THE
GOM WILL BE UNABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH MOISTURE ADV TO THIS FEATURE AS
AN ATL RIDGE AXIS IS HELD IN PLACE BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...THE
GOING SLIGHT -SHRA POPS ARE STILL ADVERTISED FOR THE WRN NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 250 AM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AMP RIDGING WILL CROSS THE
SE/RN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE ATL RIDGING REMAINS STRONGLY
ENTRENCHED AT THE SFC. S/LY FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL PERSIST SAT/SUN
AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
SFC TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A COUPLE PLEASANT DAYS. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUN
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK WAA IN MOIST H92/H85 FLOW WITH A LOW
END QPF RESPONSE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH DOWNWARD OMEGA AND MLVL DRY AIR TO COUNTER ISENT -SHRA
DEVELOPMENT AND THE FCST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME
PERIOD.
MECH LIFT WILL BECOME MORE SATURATED AND DEEPER ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES SUN NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND MID
TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA STILL LOOKS
GOOD BY 18Z MON. THE MODELS ARE GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THE OPEN GOM SCENARIO
STILL LOOKS PROBABLE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND NOW LLVL OR BULK SHEAR VALUES DON/T LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THINGS
COULD CHANGE. KEPT THE BEST CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE SRN ZONES MON
AND MON NIGHT...WITH SOME LOW END POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER TUE WITH
THE PASSING OF THE COLD TROF ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PERIODS OF LOW VFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION.
SHRA AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TS
IN THE TAF. NW WINDS WITH OCNL GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DO NOT SUPPORT FOG.
ELSEWHERE...VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOW VFR IN THE FOOTHILLS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES AN UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS IS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DO NOT SUPPORT FOG. NW
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. VFR SUNDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSH OFF THE THE COAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE LARGE LAPSE RATES. SPC MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AT 1830Z WAS CLOSE TO 7 DEGREES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CAPE ARE SMALL BUT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOLAR HEATING.
WITH A LOW FREEZING LEVEL...A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE NAM...GFS AND HRRR PLACED THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH.
ECMWF SHOWED SOME SHOWERS WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY. LEANED
TOWARDS THE ADJMAVBC WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
COLDER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE HIGH CENTER CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WAA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
10 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SEEM OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12 GFS SHOWING MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY. MADE FORECAST
TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. STILL LOOKS WARM/MILD AHEAD FRONT
FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
SHOULD BE A DIFFUSE FRONT WITH SFC LOW APPEARING RATHER WEAK AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THE UPPER FORCING OVERALL
APPEARS BEST FROM CENTRAL WV NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WILL
HAVE HIGH CHANCE OVER THE NW CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LVLS IS THERE...SO SOME THUNDER
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GOING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP WEAKENS BUT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD/WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING FRONT IN BY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF IT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER 80S OUT IN SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT
SUNDAY. OVERALL MOST PLACES WILL BE IN THE 70S SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY...SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON PRECIP THREAT BUT GIVEN THE SW FLOW
AND SOME OVERALL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE THREAT OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL SEE FRONT EXIT BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM UP AGAIN THEREAFTER WITH
HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES
SLOWLY OFF THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY
STALLS NEAR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
AS OF 905 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RAISED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE RICHEST
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON.
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS ATERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
908 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RAISED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE RICHEST
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON.
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFTER
16Z/NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 22Z/6PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 905 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW
FLOOD STAGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
740 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFTER
16Z/NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 22Z/6PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 425 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
426 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR KDAN
AND KLYH EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST REGION FROM
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN...ALSO WILL BE LOOKING FOR A
PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR CEILINGS AT BLF AS MOISTURE BECOMES BANKED
AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS MORNING AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...AND EXPECT GUSTS REACHING TO 20KTS AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY FOR ROA WESTWARD...BEFORE SPEEDS FALL OFF
FOR THE NIGHT. THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 425 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
549 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SO FAR TODAY AND RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S WEST. THE REAL WARM AIR
RESIDES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
RAPIDLY ON THE INCREASE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06-07Z. DECENT QG FORCING ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TO SEE LIGHT RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SO NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF RAIN.,.AND SHOULD
NOT IMPACT RIVERS MUCH. LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ONGOING. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN UMBRELLA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THEN THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN SEASONABLE. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS...QPF AMOUNTS AND THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.
INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES (50S
AND LOWER 60S) INTO THE REGION. WAA...COMBINED WITH A S/W TROF AND
JET STREAK ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM). HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO WI IN ADVANCE OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF/
COLD FRONT...ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT LLJ. THE PCPN MAY BE
ENHANCED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC WAVE RIPPLES NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH COULD ENHANCE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES OVER C/EC/NE WI...
WHERE MANY RIVERS ARE RUNNING OVER BANKFULL.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF MOVMT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ANOTHER SFC
WAVE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS...WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF WI ON MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SMALL
PCPN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50
KNOTS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RIVERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THE RATHER DRY SPRING...THE LATE MELT OF THE SNOW PACK
AND LINGERING FROST DEPTH...RIVER LEVELS OVERALL ARE BEHAVING.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES AND WOLF RIVER AS WELL AS PESHTIGO AND OCONTO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND FS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHIOCTON
IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE WARNING LATER THIS WEEK. SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND MAY
PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THESE BASINS...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO THIS SYSTEM
THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500MB RAP HEIGHTS SHOWS
DEEP TROUGH MARCHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH UPSTREAM
RIDGING EXTENDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WEST
COAST. IN THE PAST 24 HOURS THIS RIDGE HAS BROKEN
DOWN...INDICATING A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE DAYS TO
COME. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST ARE SKIRTING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA WESTWARD TO NORTHWEST
MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. ITS A WARM...BREEZY AFTERNOON AS
READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S...BRUSHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN / NORTHERN IA.
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TAP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE MILD
AIRMASS...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50.
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV
ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE GREATEST FORCING EXISTS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOOK AT THE HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTS LIGHT ACTIVITY ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FEEL THAT A
LOT OF THE FORCING/LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATION
INITIALLY...LIMITING QPF. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS PASSAGE DURING
THE NIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY TSTORM POTENTIAL LOCALLY...WITH
INSTABILITY WANING AND MAINLY LIMITED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
I-94.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN...THOUGH ITS AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP TOMORROW...AND SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON FOR MOST. HIGHS MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MANY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE LONG TERM...BUT THE BIG PICTURE
IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...YET MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MAINLY STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE
GFS/NAM/GEM CAMP A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHILE THE
09.12Z ECMWF HAS BETTER SATURATION WHICH PAINTS LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. PUSHED HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF...MAINLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. 09.12Z GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF
THE AREA...BUT MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER
WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF AND THE NAM TO SOME DEGREE HOLD THE COLD FRONT
BACK THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ON THE
BOUNDARY. AS THIS NORTHERN / INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT...A SECONDARY SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTING
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WAVE EJECTS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA ON
THE COLDER...NORTHWEST FRINGE. THIS TREND SEEMS TO HAVE CONTINUED
IN THE 09.12Z GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A
CHARLES CITY IOWA TO LA CROSSE TO NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE.
SOME REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /0.75 TO 1.5 IN/ ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND TRIBUTARIES.
TEMPERATURE WISE...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TAD WARMER...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND THEN A FEW DEGREES LESS ON SATURDAY.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE...FALLING TO AROUND -10C
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS ARE MID TO
UPPER 50S/MID 30S...SO GET EXCITED FOR ANOTHER STRETCH OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS HAS LED TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT RST. BOTH SITES BY 20Z...THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN THIS EVENING...PLAN ON
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME...PARTICULARLY AT LSE BEING IN THE VALLEY.
WITH A 45-50 KT JET CORE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 1500-2000
FT ABOVE THE GROUND AT BOTH TAF SITES...ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TO THE LSE TAF. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 06-07Z...ENDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER PASSAGE.
LOOK FOR THESE NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST WHERE MORE SUN OCCURS. GUSTS OF 20-25
KT SEEM LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES.
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND BEYOND. A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A 4000 FT
CEILING LOOKS LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES...BETWEEN 09-13Z...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED UP TO THIS POINT AS MUCH AS
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE
STAYED LOWER IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CAUSING LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES THERE. THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE DROPPED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ISSUED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...FUELS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE.
RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT LOOKS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A 0.10 OF AN INCH AT BEST. THIS LACK OF RAIN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND CANADIAN DRY AIR ON
THURSDAY BRINGS UP CONCERN OF FIRE CONDITIONS AGAIN. ONE POSITIVE
IS THAT HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE 60. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE 25
PERCENT. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...FUEL FORECASTS FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUGGEST ONLY
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...THUS DID NOT CONSIDER ANY FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ZT
LONG TERM......ZT
AVIATION.......AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SO FAR TODAY AND RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S WEST. THE REAL WARM AIR
RESIDES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
RAPIDLY ON THE INCREASE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06-07Z. DECENT QG FORCING ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TO SEE LIGHT RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SO NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF RAIN.,.AND SHOULD
NOT IMPACT RIVERS MUCH. LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ONGOING. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN UMBRELLA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THEN THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN SEASONABLE. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS...QPF AMOUNTS AND THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.
INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES (50S
AND LOWER 60S) INTO THE REGION. WAA...COMBINED WITH A S/W TROF AND
JET STREAK ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM). HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO WI IN ADVANCE OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF/
COLD FRONT...ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT LLJ. THE PCPN MAY BE
ENHANCED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC WAVE RIPPLES NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH COULD ENHANCE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES OVER C/EC/NE WI...
WHERE MANY RIVERS ARE RUNNING OVER BANKFULL.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF MOVMT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ANOTHER SFC
WAVE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS...WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF WI ON MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SMALL
PCPN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LLWS AROUND 1
KFT OFF THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...AND BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RIVERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THE RATHER DRY SPRING...THE LATE MELT OF THE SNOW PACK
AND LINGERING FROST DEPTH...RIVER LEVELS OVERALL ARE BEHAVING.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES AND WOLF RIVER AS WELL AS PESHTIGO AND OCONTO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND FS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHIOCTON
IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE WARNING LATER THIS WEEK. SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND MAY
PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THESE BASINS...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO THIS SYSTEM
THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 925 AND 850 MB
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 6C THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER 4C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 10K
FEET THIS MORNING...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL WITH ITS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THIS AFFECTS HOW DEEP IT WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
IT KEEPS THE 850 TO 800 MB CAP IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND
RAP HAS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS IT IS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER ABOVE THE
CAP...THUS IT LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
CONSIDERING THAT THE MOS AND THE SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT COOL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER NAM
AND RAP FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...DO THINK THAT THEY MAY BE
MIXED TOO MUCH...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ONLY MIXED UP INTO
THE 800 TO 775 MB RANGE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
TO 75 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 63 TO 70 ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND DRY FINE FUELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...THERE WILL BE A DANGER FOR WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE DISCARDED INTO PROPER
PROPER CONTAINERS.
FOR TONIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF IT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND IT LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO
LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...WENT MORE WITH THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF THAN THE DRY NAM. WITH THIS SAID...CONCERNED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WITH ML CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. THE
HIGHEST TOTAL LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THIS FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS LATEST RUN. AS A RESULT...ITS SNOW TOTALS
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT SHOWED DURING ITS PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS HAS LED TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT RST. BOTH SITES BY 20Z...THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN THIS EVENING...PLAN ON
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME...PARTICULARLY AT LSE BEING IN THE VALLEY.
WITH A 45-50 KT JET CORE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 1500-2000
FT ABOVE THE GROUND AT BOTH TAF SITES...ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TO THE LSE TAF. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 06-07Z...ENDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER PASSAGE.
LOOK FOR THESE NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST WHERE MORE SUN OCCURS. GUSTS OF 20-25
KT SEEM LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES.
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND BEYOND. A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A 4000 FT
CEILING LOOKS LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES...BETWEEN 09-13Z...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS /SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...AND DRY FINE
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR WILD FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 DUE TO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR
PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE
DISCARDED INTO PROPER CONTAINERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ041.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
550 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 925 AND 850 MB
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 6C THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER 4C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 10K
FEET THIS MORNING...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL WITH ITS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THIS AFFECTS HOW DEEP IT WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
IT KEEPS THE 850 TO 800 MB CAP IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND
RAP HAS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS IT IS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER ABOVE THE
CAP...THUS IT LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
CONSIDERING THAT THE MOS AND THE SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT COOL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER NAM
AND RAP FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...DO THINK THAT THEY MAY BE
MIXED TOO MUCH...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ONLY MIXED UP INTO
THE 800 TO 775 MB RANGE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
TO 75 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 63 TO 70 ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND DRY FINE FUELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...THERE WILL BE A DANGER FOR WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE DISCARDED INTO PROPER
PROPER CONTAINERS.
FOR TONIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF IT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND IT LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO
LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...WENT MORE WITH THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF THAN THE DRY NAM. WITH THIS SAID...CONCERNED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WITH ML CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. THE
HIGHEST TOTAL LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THIS FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS LATEST RUN. AS A RESULT...ITS SNOW TOTALS
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT SHOWED DURING ITS PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WINDY DAY AS A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING IN THE
NEAR SFC LAYER BRINGS STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EXPECT 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY IN
A 09-10Z TIME FRAME AT KRST/KLSE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THERE COULD BE A LLWS CONCERN FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ABOUT 22050KTS AT 2 KFT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH LESS.
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOWERING A BIT
POST THE BOUNDARY...BUT LOOK TO STAY VFR AT THIS TIME. BETTER
FORCING IS POST FRONT...AND THERE SHOULD BE -SHRA SCATTERED ABOUT.
WILL ADD TO FORECAST...BUT LEAVE OUT ANY POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTION FOR
NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS /SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...AND DRY FINE
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR WILD FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 DUE TO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR
PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE
DISCARDED INTO PROPER CONTAINERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 925 AND 850 MB
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 6C THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER 4C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 10K
FEET THIS MORNING...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL WITH ITS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THIS AFFECTS HOW DEEP IT WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
IT KEEPS THE 850 TO 800 MB CAP IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND
RAP HAS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS IT IS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER ABOVE THE
CAP...THUS IT LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
CONSIDERING THAT THE MOS AND THE SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT COOL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER NAM
AND RAP FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...DO THINK THAT THEY MAY BE
MIXED TOO MUCH...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ONLY MIXED UP INTO
THE 800 TO 775 MB RANGE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
TO 75 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 63 TO 70 ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND DRY FINE FUELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...THERE WILL BE A DANGER FOR WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE DISCARDED INTO PROPER
PROPER CONTAINERS.
FOR TONIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF IT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND IT LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO
LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...WENT MORE WITH THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF THAN THE DRY NAM. WITH THIS SAID...CONCERNED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WITH ML CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. THE
HIGHEST TOTAL LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THIS FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS LATEST RUN. AS A RESULT...ITS SNOW TOTALS
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT SHOWED DURING ITS PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SHOWERS DYING QUICKLY. ONLY CIRRUS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MID CLOUD. AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA ADVANCING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MECHANICAL TURBULANCE LIKELY...WITH IMPACTS FELT
MOST BY SMALLER AIRCRAFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS /SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...AND DRY FINE
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR WILD FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 DUE TO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR
PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE
DISCARDED INTO PROPER CONTAINERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE CATSKILLS AS OF 3 AM LOCAL. FRONT IS
MAKING QUICK PROGRESS AND WILL REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (ORANGE COUNTY) BY SUNRISE. THIS IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AT
AN ANA FRONT WITH THE PCPN AND MOISTURE TRIALING THE SURFACE
POSITION.
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING NYC AROUND 8AM WHERE I EXPECT THE FRONT TO
STALL OUT. AREA OF RAIN SEEN OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM REACHES LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE 8 AM (NORTH OF THE FRONT). HRRR AND RAP ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PCPN WEAKENING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA. HAVE
USED A 60 POP AS IT MAY NOT MEASURE. PCPN WEAKENS TO SPRINKLES AS
IT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THEN IS DRY FOR A FEW HOURS.
MAIN FEATURE IS THE SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AT 60 KT AS OF 3 AM. THIS INDUCES WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT AND QUICKLY INCREASE PCPN LIKELIHOOD THIS
AFTN NORTH OF THE FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED AND HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN TO REACH
NYC METRO UNTIL AROUND 6 PM.
HAVE USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS FEEL NAM IS CLOSER TO EXPECTED
PCPN PATTERN. THAT SAID...MID 70S FOR NE JERSEY...60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PCPN SPREADS EAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD BE OVER IN THE NY METRO BY MIDNIGHT
AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN EVENT IS HIGH.
00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CONTINUES THE IDEA WITH HEAVIER PCPN.
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF...THIS SURE SEEMS HIGH. THINK
WE`RE LOOKING AT 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH QPF ON AVERAGE. WHILE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH...CLUSTER AND
MAX ANALYSIS OF THE SREF DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND ARE UNDER DONE. WILL THUS GO WITH LITTLE
VARIATION IN QPF.
HAVE SIDED WITH A MOS BLEND AND THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE MERIDIONAL WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PIVOTING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. A DEVELOPING LOW AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION DISSIPATES SUNDAY...LEAVING A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
GETS REINFORCED BY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WARM FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...IN OUR REGION...WE WILL BE IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE RESULT.
WARMING TREND IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS N/W OF NYC. WITH THE SECOND AND
THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE LOW LEVELS TO MAKE FOR PATCHY
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE CONTINUOUS MOISTURE AND WARMTH FEED IS FURTHER AUGMENTED BY A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS SHOW THE JET
TAPPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EMBEDDED STREAKS OF AROUND
130-160 KT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FOG VERSUS STRATUS.
ONE THING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AS SUCH...WITH THE UPPER
AND LOW LEVEL JETS FEEDING IN MOISTURE...THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH...EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDRO SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE BULK OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING MOVES IN
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
45-55 KT LLJ WILL KEEP LLWS ACROSS THE TERMINALS...ENDING 11Z TO
13Z...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AT 40 KT AROUND 1
KFT...INCREASING TO 45-55 KT AT 2 KFT.
LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF NYC THIS AFTN SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MARGINAL VFR VSBY THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY WIND INCREASES TO AROUND 15 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...11Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY WIND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...11Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY WIND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...11Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING...LIKELY THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING...LIKELY THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LLWS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING WITH WIND AT
2KFT AROUND 55KT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND INCREASES TO 10 TO 15
KT...WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGH GUST POSSIBLE. EARLY THIS
EVENING...23Z...WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT THRU SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.MON...BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. S WIND G20-25KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.TUE...RAIN LIKELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN WATERS REMAIN IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY TOO HIGH FROM THE 00Z RUN. WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING...THINK SEAS WILL FALL BELOW THE 5 FT CRITERIA ON THE
OCEAN EXCEPT SOUTH OF MONTAUK (44017).
5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON ANZ-350-353 SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...SCA SEAS DEVELOP AND BUILD UP
TO 8-14 FT TUE-WED TIME PERIOD.
FOR WINDS...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
THEN...WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS MON AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR
MOST WATERS THROUGH TUE. TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WILL PRESENT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
HERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF RANGES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. WITH PWATS FORECAST OF 1.25 TO 1.5
INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS BEING HINTED AT
WITHIN INDIVIDUAL 6HR PLOTS OF QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS AND CMC
HAVE AMOUNTS OF 1.2 TO 1.7 INCHES WITHIN A 6HR PERIOD. PLEASE NOTE
THAT MODEL TOTAL QPF RANGES COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...DIFFICULT TO STATE THE EXACT POTENTIAL AND
MAGNITUDE OF ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING BUT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS RAINFALL...MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LOOKS
TO BE THE MORE COMMON THREAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
359 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE CATSKILLS AS OF 3 AM LOCAL. FRONT IS
MAKING QUICK PROGRESS AND WILL REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (ORANGE COUNTY) BY SUNRISE. THIS IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AT
AN ANA FRONT WITH THE PCPN AND MOISTURE TRIALING THE SURFACE
POSITION.
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING NYC AROUND 8AM WHERE I EXPECT THE FRONT TO
STALL OUT. AREA OF RAIN SEEN OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM REACHES LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY IN THE 8 AM (NORTH OF THE FRONT). HRRR AND RAP ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PCPN WEAKENING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA. HAVE
USED A 60 POP AS IT MAY NOT MEASURE. PCPN WEAKENS TO SPRINKLES AS
IT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THEN IS DRY FOR A FEW HOURS.
MAIN FEATURE IS THE SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AT 60 KT AS OF 3 AM. THIS INDUCES WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT AND QUICKLY INCREASE PCPN LIKELIHOOD THIS
AFTN NORTH OF THE FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED AND HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN TO REACH
NYC METRO UNTIL AROUND 6 PM.
HAVE USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS FEEL NAM IS CLOSER TO EXPECTED
PCPN PATTERN. THAT SAID...MID 70S FOR NE JERSEY...60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PCPN SPREADS EAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD BE OVER IN THE NY METRO BY MIDNIGHT
AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
POPS ARE CATEGORICAL AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN EVENT IS HIGH.
00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN CONTINUES THE IDEA WITH HEAVIER PCPN.
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF...THIS SURE SEEMS HIGH. THINK
WE`RE LOOKING AT 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH QPF ON AVERAGE. WHILE OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH...CLUSTER AND
MAX ANALYSIS OF THE SREF DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND ARE UNDER DONE. WILL THUS GO WITH LITTLE
VARIATION IN QPF.
HAVE SIDED WITH A MOS BLEND AND THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE FOR
SATURDAY WITH FULL SUN...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE MERIDIONAL WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PIVOTING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. A DEVELOPING LOW AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION DISSIPATES SUNDAY...LEAVING A STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
GETS REINFORCED BY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WARM FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...IN OUR REGION...WE WILL BE IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL BE THE RESULT.
WARMING TREND IN TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS N/W OF NYC. WITH THE SECOND AND
THIRD NIGHT OF ONSHORE FLOW...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE LOW LEVELS TO MAKE FOR PATCHY
FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE CONTINUOUS MOISTURE AND WARMTH FEED IS FURTHER AUGMENTED BY A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS SHOW THE JET
TAPPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EMBEDDED STREAKS OF AROUND
130-160 KT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FOG VERSUS STRATUS.
ONE THING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AS SUCH...WITH THE UPPER
AND LOW LEVEL JETS FEEDING IN MOISTURE...THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH...EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDRO SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE BULK OF SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS RELATIVELY SPEAKING MOVES IN
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
45-50 KT LLJ WILL KEEP LLWS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AT 40 KT AROUND 1 KFT...INCREASING
TO 45-50 KT AT 2 KFT.
LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF NYC THIS AFTN SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING WITH MARGINAL VFR VSBY THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NGT...MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE.
.SUN...BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
.MON...ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY QUICKLY
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. S WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NGT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...RAIN LIKELY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. EVENING COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS
G20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
OCEAN WATERS REMAIN IN MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY TOO HIGH FROM THE 00Z RUN. WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING...THINK SEAS WILL FALL BELOW THE 5 FT CRITERIA ON THE
OCEAN EXCEPT SOUTH OF MONTAUK (44017).
5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON ANZ-350-353 SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...SCA SEAS DEVELOP AND BUILD UP
TO 8-14 FT TUE-WED TIME PERIOD.
FOR WINDS...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
THEN...WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS MON AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR
MOST WATERS THROUGH TUE. TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WILL PRESENT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
HERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF RANGES FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. WITH PWATS FORECAST OF 1.25 TO 1.5
INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THIS IS BEING HINTED AT
WITHIN INDIVIDUAL 6HR PLOTS OF QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS AND CMC
HAVE AMOUNTS OF 1.2 TO 1.7 INCHES WITHIN A 6HR PERIOD. PLEASE NOTE
THAT MODEL TOTAL QPF RANGES COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...DIFFICULT TO STATE THE EXACT POTENTIAL AND
MAGNITUDE OF ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING BUT AT THIS POINT WITH THE LONG
DURATION OF THIS RAINFALL...MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING LOOKS
TO BE THE MORE COMMON THREAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
203 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* A SMALL CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE REACHING MDW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT INTO THIS MORNING.
A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEEPER MIXING OVER LAND /THUS BRINGING DOWN
STRONGER SOUTHWEST SPEEDS ALOFT/ SHOULD PROMPT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z OR SO. A LAKE BREEZE
IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE AND MAKE SOME SUBTLE PROGRESS
INLAND BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z BEFORE LIKELY BEING PUSHED BACK TO
SHORE. AT THIS TIME...GYY IS FAVORED TO SEE A WIND SHIFT WHILE ORD
AND MDW ARE NOT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEPEND ON SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SUBTLE FACTORS SO IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THAT IT PROGRESSES FURTHER WEST INTO COOK COUNTY BEFORE IT
RETREATS. A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO THE MID TEENS AND MAYBE EVEN 20
KT COULD BE REACHED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 15K-25K FT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF MDW AND HIGH IN IT
REMAINING EAST OF ORD.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* MONDAY...SHRA LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
MTF/CMS
&&
.MARINE...
203 AM CDT
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE LAKE IS UPCOMING THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE
BREEZE /ONSHORE FLOW/ TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITHIN THE ILLINOIS AND ESPECIALLY THE INDIANA NEARSHORE ZONES. AS
DEEPER MIXING OCCURS OVER LAND INTO THE AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVER LAND AND USHER THE LAKE BREEZE
AWAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED OVER ALL NEARSHORE AREAS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.
A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
FAIRLY HIGH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS /20-25 KT/. DUE TO THE
STABILITY FORECAST OVER THE LAKE...GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED THE
SUSTAINED WINDS BY VERY MUCH. AS THE FIRST LOW PASSES OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL LEAVE A
WEST-TO-EAST COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERN PUSH BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OOZE THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
YET. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND THAT WILL SWEEP THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD AND ALSO
INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS BY MONDAY. WITH MORE OF A COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME...NORTHERLY GUSTS ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO
REACH GALE CRITERIA DURING MONDAY. INITIALLY LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT DOES LOOK LIKE A QUIETER PERIOD FOR THE
LAKE.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* A SMALL CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE REACHING MDW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT INTO THIS MORNING.
A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DEEPER MIXING OVER LAND /THUS BRINGING DOWN
STRONGER SOUTHWEST SPEEDS ALOFT/ SHOULD PROMPT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z OR SO. A LAKE BREEZE
IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE AND MAKE SOME SUBTLE PROGRESS
INLAND BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z BEFORE LIKELY BEING PUSHED BACK TO
SHORE. AT THIS TIME...GYY IS FAVORED TO SEE A WIND SHIFT WHILE ORD
AND MDW ARE NOT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEPEND ON SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SUBTLE FACTORS SO IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THAT IT PROGRESSES FURTHER WEST INTO COOK COUNTY BEFORE IT
RETREATS. A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO THE MID TEENS AND MAYBE EVEN 20
KT COULD BE REACHED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 15K-25K FT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF MDW AND HIGH IN IT
REMAINING EAST OF ORD.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/MVFR. CHANCE OF TSRA.
* MONDAY...SHRA LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
MTF/CMS
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND
PROBABLY THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LOCATIONS SLOWER TO
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z. OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 0Z PERIOD...
THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW WENT WITH VCSH AND NO MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE A BIT AROUND OR
AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
245 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT HRRR TRENDS SUPPORT SHOWERS GENERALLY
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE OH RIVER OR
EVEN NORTH OF THERE. CHANCES INCREASE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY
CORRIDOR DURING FRI MORNING. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000
FEET WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND KY MESONET SITES AT FLATWOODS
IN PIKE COUNTY AND BLACK MOUNTAIN IN PIKE COUNTY HAVE BEEN ABOUT
15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH ON AVERAGE...THOUGH
BLACK MTN HAS HAD A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH.
POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE AND
21Z SREF THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO TRIM POPS BACK TONIGHT. ATTM BULK OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST IS POST FRONTAL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF OF
THE FRONT...IN LINE WITH CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WITH DELAY OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT POPS DECIDED TO REMOVE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
TONIGHT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL/IN IS
CURRENTLY POST FRONTAL AS WELL. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE INCOMING 0Z
NAM12 SUPPORTS THIS LINE OF THOUGHT...WITH BEST INSTABILITY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE....15Z AT EARLIEST IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. HAD TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH EVEN TEMPS IN OUR TYPICALLY COOLER EASTERN
VALLEYS ARE HOLDING UP WELL DUE TO A STEADY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND
AND GOOD MIXING. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED LOWS ARE
WITHIN REACH AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD EVENTUALLY SET UP UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
LATEST THOUGHTS. ZONES HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF WITH LARGEST RECOVERY OF DEW
POINTS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ATTM. CONSEQUENTLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NO LONGER BEING MET. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE SLOWER TO RECOVER ALONG THE RIDGES. DECISION WAS TO LET THE RFW
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF MID WEST AND
SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE OHIO RIVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
POST FRONTAL ATTM. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING JUST A BIT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY TOMORROW. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAWN...AFFECTING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWARD FROM THERE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...APPEARS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT THROUGH OUR AREA...BUT INSTEAD
STALLS OUT BEFORE RETREATING TO THE NORTH SATURDAY. UPDATED FORECAST
GRIDS TO BLEND INTO LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL FRESHEN UP ZONE WORDING WITH NEXT
SCHEDULED UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THE NAM12 WAS SORT OF THE
OUTLIER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE GFS...ECMWF...SREF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
HAD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE SREF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WERE PREFERRED AS THEY SEEMED TO BEST DEPICT THE EXPECTED WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER SIMILAR MODELS AND GOOD
INITIALIZATION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
SAME AS IT WAS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HPC
6 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INITIATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES LOOKED PRETTY
GOOD...DECIDED TO TWEAK THOSE TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROWS HIGHS AS THOSE NUMBERS SEEMED MORE REASONABLE
CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN ALREADY TODAY. WINDS WERE DERIVED
FROM THE NORMALLY RELIABLE SREF MODEL OUTPUT. GRADUALLY RELAXED WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AS GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE
ONCE THE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING GO AWAY. WILL LIKELY SEE
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
WINDS BECOMING A BIT LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY THAN THEY WERE
TODAY. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT NOT BEING VERY WELL
DEFINED...TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO
AROUND 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
MODELS AGREE ON AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS AND EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THE PATTERN WILL THEN DAMPEN A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING...SO
WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL START OUT MILD...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...THREATENING TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS. DRY
WEATHER THEN ENSUES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIKELY RAINFALL...WITH SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EXIT OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKING MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SUGGESTING SOME SNOW AT LEAST ACROSS
OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GET
DOWN INTO THE 30S...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
IN SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE
60S FOR THURSDAY...AS SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND
PROBABLY THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. LOCATIONS SLOWER TO
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE
AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z. OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 0Z PERIOD...
THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW WENT WITH VCSH AND NO MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE A BIT AROUND OR
AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1245 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Narrowed the area of higher pops for overnight and Friday, as a weak
frontal boundary creeps toward us from the northwest. By daybreak,
have a narrow zone of isentropic lift along this front along with
some weak forcing aloft. Also, latest HRRR actually diminishes the
line because of that weakening support. Given that we will have a
pool of moisture and a low-level jet over the north overnight, will
keep pops generally in the scattered range north of a Leitchfield to
Georgetown line in KY. Also kept in the isolated thunder wording,
given some elevated instability.
We got pretty warm today, and steady winds this evening in a tight
pressure gradient field ahead of the front slow but steady fall in
temperatures. Forecast lows still look good, and main change with
this package was that mentioned above.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
A cold front currently stretched from the Great Lakes southwestward
through Illinois and Missouri continues to approach the Ohio Valley.
We are squeezed between this front and high pressure to our
southeast, which has strengthened the pressure gradient. Winds will
continue to be gusty this afternoon and early evening, with
sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts approaching
40 mph. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the other concern
with these winds is an enhanced fire danger. Relative humidity
values have dropped into the middle 20s to middle 30s this
afternoon, as area-wide temperatures have reach the lower to middle
70s as of this writing.
The cold front to our northwest will slide into southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky tonight and continue a slow southward progression
through the day Friday. Scattered to numerous showers will develop
along this front during the evening hours across our northern
counties and slide southward overnight and through the day Friday
coincident with the front. Some elevated instability is noticeable
every now and then in the sounding profile, so will continue to
mention isolated thunderstorm chances. Showers will taper off from
west to east Friday evening as the deeper moisture exits with the
upper forcing, though low clouds should stick around overnight.
As for temperatures, they will remain mild tonight, only dropping
into the middle 50s. Expect highs Friday to be a bit cooler than
today, topping out in the middle 60s across the north to lower 70s
across our south. Low temperatures Friday night should be around the
50 degree mark.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Saturday through Monday Night...
Surface frontal boundary looks to drop southward into Tennessee
Saturday morning and then wash out. The remnants of the front look
to move back through the region during the afternoon hours on
Saturday with the boundary surging northward late Saturday night.
All of the available deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests
that some light showers could still pop up during the afternoon.
Overall, moisture in the column and lack of a clear forcing feature
suggest that only very isolated showers would be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours. We do expect a Cu field to develop
during the afternoon and this looks to dissipate after sunset.
Saturday will be a mild day across the Ohio Valley with afternoon
readings in the 72 to 77 degree range. Lows Saturday night will not
drop off much...only into the mid 50s in the east and upper 50s in
the west.
By Sunday, an upper trough over the western CONUS will start to
migrate eastward into the Plains. A lee side cyclogenesis event
will take place with a surface low developing over the Red River
area early Sunday. This feature will rapidly move northeastward on
Sunday and move into the southern Great Lakes by Monday afternoon.
As this occurs, this feature will drag a surface cold front through
the region. At this time, the latest data suggests that Sunday
will be rather dry and warm across the forecast area. Atmospheric
soundings show a bit of capping during the afternoon that should
preclude convection developing. Best chances of any afternoon
convection would be across our far NW sections. Better chances of
precipitation will be later Sunday night as the actual frontal
boundary closes in on the region. Very high chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Monday night as the frontal
boundary crosses the region.
Highs Sunday look to be the warmest during the forecast period with
highs of 75 to 80 degrees likely. Lows Sunday night will only drop
into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Monday in the
pre-frontal airmass will warm into the mid-upper 60s with lows
falling into the middle 30s by early Tuesday morning.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Surface cold front will slowly work eastward and away from the
region on Tuesday. The actual speed of the front may be a little
slower than previously thought due to a wave of low pressure moving
along the frontal boundary. This may keep clouds in our eastern
sections a little longer on Tuesday...delaying clearing and
resulting in slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Generally have
gone with the 00Z Euro Ensemble and 12Z OP Euro deterministic runs
here...given the slightly progressive bias of the GFS. Highs
Tuesday will likely warm into the upper 40s to around 50 in the
north with lower 50s in the south. Clearing should take place
Tuesday night which should for decent radiational cooling to
commence. This will likely lead to our first spring frost/freeze of
the season. Lows Tuesday night will cool into the lower 30s with
the coldest readings over our southern Indiana and northern
Bluegrass regions. At this time, we feel that the threat of a hard
freeze is very low...but frost certainly looks like a good bet.
Upper level and surface ridge axis will move through the region on
Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry conditions. Highs on
Wednesday look to top out in the upper 50s with highs in the
lower-middle 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows through the period
will remain below normal with readings generally cooling upper 30s
to the lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Recent AMDAR soundings support model progs of a low level jet early
this morning in the vicinity of an inversion around 2000 feet. LLWS
was carried in the previous TAF package and will continue in this
forecast as well, with WSW winds of 40-45kt near 2K` and SW winds of
8-13kt at the surface.
A dying cold front is approaching from the north. There will be
about a 10-hour window of scattered showers today as this front
moves into central Kentucky and just about washes out. A few
thunderstorms will be possible, especially this afternoon at BWG.
Because the front is so weak, not much of a wind shift is associated
with it.
Will keep TAFs prevailing VFR. There have been a few MVFR ceilings
upstream overnight in the heavier showers, but the threat for MVFR
ceilings/vsbys in central Kentucky is low enough that it can be
omitted from the TAFs for now.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
435 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
HINDERED BY PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOME RAIN IS MAKING IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR THIS MORNING
IS VIRGA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN. THE
VIRGA/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
YESTERDAYS HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE VERY GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EVIDENT AT 850H ON THE RAP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. BOTH FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMING AND
EXPANDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 100+ KT JET STREAK TO THE
NE OF THE FA PLACES US SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL POKE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS JET SUPPLY THIS AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING
PROVIDING STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET INDICATES STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
THESE AREAS AFTER 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE NAM
INDICATED A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION...PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE
QUICKLY OVERCOME IN THIS CASE. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND
WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE DO PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
09Z...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN POINTS:
1) PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
2) THERE ARE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE QPF
AXIS ON SUNDAY.
3) THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS NOW GOING COLDER
WITH TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
NOW THAT WE`RE 24-36 HOURS OUT FROM THE RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY...IT`S NO SURPRISE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM...WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE 800-600MB FGEN.
THE NAM THEREFORE HAS MORE WARMTH FARTHER NORTH AND THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP
MORE RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN. TRENDS IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION SUGGEST WESTERN MN...ESPECIALLY SW
MN COULD MISS OUT ON A LOT OF THE PRECIP WITH DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN MN. FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 0.10"-0.40" EVENT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING WHERE THERE IS EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THAT
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND BEST LI
NEAR 0. WE TRIED TO REMAIN STEADFAST IN KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AFTER
THE RAIN CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...WE ARE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN
A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THAN WE WERE A DAY OR TWO AGO.
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS IA...FAR SOUTHEAST MN AND
WI. THIS WILL BE MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF
BEING FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE 11.00/06 NAM SEEMS TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND THE TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER HASN`T BEEN GREAT FOR
THE NAM OUTSIDE OF IT`S 0-24HR FORECAST. WE SIDED WITH MORE OF A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND AND UNLESS WE SEE THESE THREE MODELING SYSTEMS
TREND ANOTHER 100-150 MILES NORTH...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY /CLOUDY/ FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 3-4 CYCLES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET.
SO...JUST AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR
NORMAL...WE SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR
HIGHS. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...ANOTHER NEAR ZERO NIGHT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN MN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR IMPACT MUCH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
KMSP...VFR. DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT...NO MAJOR
CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 743 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Updated POPs to pull higher POPs further nwd thru this evening
mainly across the ern half of the CWA based on latest mdl guidance
and RADAR trends. Latest RAP/local WRF, and to a lesser extent the
HRRR, suggest main focus of precip will be the 850mb fnt
stretching from just n of KSET to K3LF region. Believe the sfc fnt
will remain capped enuf thru at least the next few hours to
prevent more than CU from forming. However, these mdls do suggest
the fnt may become more active after Midnight tonight. By that
time, the fnt shud be s of the CWA.
Have kept POPs in the chance cat, albeit the high end, as precip
is falling out of a 10 to 12 kft ceiling. Have also reduced TS
coverage to isod as generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE exist
across the region. Will continue to monitor trends thru the
evening and update as the situation changes.
Tilly
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front that is currently near a Springfield, IL to St. Louis to
Jefferson City line will continue to move southeast this evening.
The models show this front slowing down over the southern CWA
tonight. The RAP does show an increase in low level moisture
moisture convergence along and ahead of the front the next few hours
at the same time that the HRRR depicts scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern half of the CWA. Have
maintained chance pops for tonight. MOS lows tonight are in good
agreement and generally followed.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
(Friday - Saturday night)
Cold front is expected to be just south of CWA early Friday morning and
will become quasi-stationary by afternoon. Chance PoPs will be confined to
along/just north of aformentioned boundary for Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler on Friday by about 10 degrees for most locations behind the cold front.
Quasi-stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front Friday
night as lee-side cyclogenesis commences and mid/upper-level heights rise.
Expect Saturday to be mainly dry and kept dry forecast going as very strong
cap is forecast to exist according to NWP model soundings. In addition...
large-scale forcing for ascent looks fairly weak across the area indicating
cap will likely hold.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday night ahead of
approaching cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance as
CWA will remain in warm sector with increasing clouds and south winds
around 10 knots.
(Sunday - Sunday night)
An unsettled and wet period is forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as cold front
moves across the area. Negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject toward
the mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday evening with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected with cold frontal passage. Could also be some
strong thunderstorms through Sunday evening with ~30kts 0-6km shear and
modest instability though higher severe weather threat should exist over
the lower Mississippi Valley where much greater instability will reside.
Temperatures on Sunday look to be quite difficult as degree of cloudiness
and frontal passage timing are a bit uncertain. Leaned warmer than guidance
a couple of degrees for now based on current projections of fropa as most
of CWA would be ahead of front through early afternoon at least.
(Monday - Thursday)
Light rain may linger across portions of the area on Monday as secondary
shortwave trough moves southeastward. Temperatures with clouds and rain
chances along with strong CAA at low levels will yield a cold and raw
early/mid April day. Forecast highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50s far south
still look on track.
Two cold nights with near freezing low temperatures appear possible Monday
night as well as Tuesday night...especially for northern areas. If lows
do dip into the upper 20s...frost/freeze headlines may become necessary
as vegetation begins to grow/bloom...especially over the southern CWA.
Remainder of extended looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to
near normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Last gasp SHRA to the east of the STL Metro area are
expected to again get close but will overall struggle to build
much into that area. May still throw in VCSH for STL and CPS for a
brief period at the beginning of the period. Front should then be
too far to the south to have any impact on Friday. Otherwise,
look for gradually veering light winds from the E by late tonight
becoming variable as a ridge of hi pressure builds in and finally
from the SE to S Friday night as the ridge pulls away.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru the period.
May place a brief VCSH for last-gasp SHRA that are to the east of
STL Metro. Cold front should then be too far south on Friday to
have any impact. Otherwise, look for winds to slowly veer from
the E by Friday morning becoming variable with a ridge of high
pressure building in and finally from the SE Friday night with
departure of the ridge. May see the northern edge of some lower
cloud reach the terminal late Friday night. Current indications
are that the bases will be straddling MVFR-VFR categories and may
not have much of a chance to establish itself before sunrise.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION WILL END
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WITH A
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH 06Z. RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING
SHOWERS LASTING FOR ABOUT A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS STILL GUSTY AT
TIMES...BUT THESE WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 09Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND LINGERING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AFTER THAT...DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TREND
TO WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE FCST REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW SPRAWLED ALONG AN
ELM...ITH...TO RME LINE. LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ONGOING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE
MORNING HRS PROGRESS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED POPS AS
PREVIOUS FCST ACCOUNTED FOR EXPECTATIONS QUITE WELL.
1045 PM UPDATE...
DID AN UPDATE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING RADAR RETURNS
AND PRECIP. SHORT WAVE MENTIONED BELOW FROM THE MID WEST WAS
RAPIDLY WORKING E AND AS A RESULT THE CD FRNT WAS ON THE MOVE
REACHING INTO FAR NW PART OF NY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD AS THIS SHRT WAVE RACES EAST AND CLEAR NE PA BY 11-12Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN CLOSE TO FROPA AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE FRNT AS THIS WAVE PASSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT
THIS TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY
WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000
FEET WITH THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING
ARND 9000 TO 10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO
REACHING THE GRND. METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER
LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS THEY CONT TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY WITH EACH OTHER. WARM ADVECTION WL BE IN PLACE AT
BEGINNING OF EXTNDD WITH CHC SHOWERS ACRS FAR WRN ZONES FOR MONDAY
UNTIL UPR LVL TROF GETS CLOSER, HELPING TO PUSH FRONT THRU.
CATEGORICAL/LKLY POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE CONTINUE TO LOOK
REASONABLE FOR MON NGT AND TUE.
ANOTHER WV WL DVLP ACRS SERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND RIDE UP ALONG
FRONTAL BNDRY, SPREADING QPF ACRS ERN ZONES TUE NGT. AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS MAY BE CLD ENUF FOR SNOW WEST OF I-81
CORRIDOR AFT 06Z JUST AS PCPN PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME TO DIGEST THE POTENTIAL. HIPRES BUILDS IN WED NGT AND THUR
WITH RETURN TO CLDR THAN NRML TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BLO...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING EXTREMELY SLOW TONIGHT. HAS JUST STARTED
SPRINKLING AT KSYR AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO CREEP SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT AND NOT MOVE INTO KITH/KELM UNTIL 07Z, KBGM UNTIL 08Z AND
KAVP AROUND 10Z. WITH ONLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KITH AND KBGM.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL SPREAD BKN100 CIGS TO NY TERMINALS
AFTER 16Z WITH UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS AT KAVP AFTER 18Z.
WINDS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF FRONT, THEN BECOMING NW AS FROPA
OCCURS WITH VERY BRIEF GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
NW WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PVN/RRM
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE FCST REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW SPRAWLED ALONG AN
ELM...ITH...TO RME LINE. LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ONGOING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE
MORNING HRS PROGRESS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED POPS AS
PREVIOUS FCST ACCOUNTED FOR EXPECTATIONS QUITE WELL.
1045 PM UPDATE...
DID AN UPDATE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING RADAR RETURNS
AND PRECIP. SHORT WAVE MENTIONED BELOW FROM THE MID WEST WAS
RAPIDLY WORKING E AND AS A RESULT THE CD FRNT WAS ON THE MOVE
REACHING INTO FAR NW PART OF NY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD AS THIS SHRT WAVE RACES EAST AND CLEAR NE PA BY 11-12Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN CLOSE TO FROPA AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE FRNT AS THIS WAVE PASSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT
THIS TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY
WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000
FEET WITH THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING
ARND 9000 TO 10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO
REACHING THE GRND. METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER
LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING EXTREMELY SLOW TONIGHT. HAS JUST STARTED
SPRINKLING AT KSYR AND EXPECT THE RAIN TO CREEP SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT AND NOT MOVE INTO KITH/KELM UNTIL 07Z, KBGM UNTIL 08Z AND
KAVP AROUND 10Z. WITH ONLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KITH AND KBGM.
NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL SPREAD BKN100 CIGS TO NY TERMINALS
AFTER 16Z WITH UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS AT KAVP AFTER 18Z.
WINDS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF FRONT, THEN BECOMING NW AS FROPA
OCCURS WITH VERY BRIEF GUSTS APPCHG 20KTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
NW WINDS 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND NEAR 70 IN MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE FCST REGION...WITH BOUNDARY NOW SPRAWLED ALONG AN
ELM...ITH...TO RME LINE. LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY ONGOING BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE
MORNING HRS PROGRESS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO INHERITED POPS AS
PREVIOUS FCST ACCOUNTED FOR EXPECTATIONS QUITE WELL.
1045 PM UPDATE...
DID AN UPDATE TO POPS TO BETTER REFLECT ON-GOING RADAR RETURNS
AND PRECIP. SHORT WAVE MENTIONED BELOW FROM THE MID WEST WAS
RAPIDLY WORKING E AND AS A RESULT THE CD FRNT WAS ON THE MOVE
REACHING INTO FAR NW PART OF NY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD AS THIS SHRT WAVE RACES EAST AND CLEAR NE PA BY 11-12Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN CLOSE TO FROPA AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEHIND THE FRNT AS THIS WAVE PASSES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL BE THE
IMPETUS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS C NY AND NE PA BETWEEN 6Z AND
12Z. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WAS OVER SRN ONT AND THE UPPER LAKES AT
THIS TIME. LIFTG AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WAS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADING TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ABV A DRY
WELL- MIXED BNDRY LAYER. THE BNDRY LAYER REACHED WELL ABV 6000
FEET WITH THE STRG APRIL SUN AND WAS VERY DRY. CIGS WERE RUNNING
ARND 9000 TO 10000 FEET INDICATIVE OF HOW DRY THE BNDRY LAYER IS.
MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS IN WRN AND CNTRL NY WERE LIKELY NO
REACHING THE GRND. METARS SUPPORT THIS. I HAVE SPRINKLES TO LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA INITIALLY INTO LATE EVENING MAINLY FOR FINGER
LAKES AND NC NY.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARKENING OVER SRN WI AND IA ATTM. THIS WAVE
IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE EAST AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO C NY AND NE PA BTWN 6 AND 12Z. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z AND WILL PUSH THE CD
FRNT S OF THE REGION BTWN 6 AND 12Z. I EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL
REALLY FILL IN MAINLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH IN AN ANAFRONT
FASHION. AS THESE TWO WAVES PUSH EAST THEY WILL INCREASE UPPER
CONFLUENCE ACRS SERN CANADA WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THERMAL DIRECT
FRONTAL CIRCULATION WHICH FAVORS PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRNT.
THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SHOWS THIS. I TIME PRECIPITATION IN WITH
THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. I
ALSO BLENDED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AS WELL IN THE HOURLY POPS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...SPRINKLES OR SCT LIGHT SHRA
AFFECT MUCH OF C NY AND THEN AFTER 6Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE
FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS IT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PA AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS AT MID-LEVELS AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS A RESULT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO MAYBE AS MUCH
AS HALF AN INCH COULD FALL OVER NORTHEAST PA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRYING WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A FINE SPRING DAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY COMES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY ONE SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM
DURING THIS PERIOD. A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MID
WEST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WITH
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE AS GULF MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO SYSTEM.
WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY/HIGH
CHC ON TUESDAY. ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO 4K FT.
ABOUT A FOUR TO SIX HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
WITH FROPA. FOR THE NYS TERMINALS THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AROUND
04Z. BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KITH/KBGM
AND POSSIBLE AT SYR/RME. AFTER 12Z JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. AT KAVP, UNRESTRICTED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
AROUND DAYBREAK THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVE
DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 04Z. BECOMING W/NW AFTER FROPA AROUND
5-10 KNOTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT/SAT...VFR.
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
810 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN
10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING AS WELL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE RISING AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPERS 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH FALLING WIND SPEEDS
AND LESS GUSTS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE THREAT FOR
RAPIDLY SPREADING BRUSH FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. HENCE THE THREAT
FOR WILD FIRES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...CMG/DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
537 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM HAS LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. NORMALLY WOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST
AND SOUTH OF BFD...BUT THERE IS A WAVE JUST WEST OF LAKE MI.
STILL SOME RISK OF LLWS EARLY TODAY.
THUS WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAD. STILL
SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A LARGE
RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
323 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. ENOUGH
SFC FORCING WILL STILL RESIDE SO AS TO SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF LOW
POPS FOR TODAY. HRRR LOOKING DRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES WILL INCH UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH SOME CAP
REDUCTION AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT APPROACHES. 20 TO 30 POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO RESIDE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ELEVATED
HEIGHTS WITH SOME RIDGING TENDENCIES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HAPPENS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE FROM TX NE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH AND MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN
ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLAY SO AS TO PROVIDE A POST
FRONTAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NEGATIVE 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL SECTOR OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SOUNDING
PROFILES DOES ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FLAKE OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER PLATEAU ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL ADHERE
TO THE CURRENT FCST AND ONLY INCLUDE A COLD SHOWERY RAINY DAY.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE MONDAY FROPA.
TUESDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE A COLD RAINY AND RAW DAY FOR MID APRIL.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON WED MORNING. SO...AS
THE SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. FREEZE AND
OR FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED AT SOME POINT. TEMPS WILL
INCH UP TOWARD SEASONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 75 56 80 59 / 20 10 10 05
CLARKSVILLE 73 55 79 57 / 30 10 10 05
CROSSVILLE 71 52 76 56 / 20 20 10 05
COLUMBIA 76 56 80 59 / 10 10 10 05
LAWRENCEBURG 76 54 80 57 / 05 10 10 05
WAVERLY 74 56 79 59 / 20 10 10 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
423 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT NOT VERY FAR SOUTH. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
18Z/2PM. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
EVEN BE AFTER 00Z/8PM. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT....SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
ONE INCH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON THURSDAY SO EXPECTING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER. ENOUGH SUN IN ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH VALUES CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND SPEED MOST LOCATIONS FOR
NEAR SURFACE AIR TO STAY MIXED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SENDS
IMPRESSIVELY WARM AIR OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. 80F IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WARMER SPOTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTAIN MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP...SO KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. DEEP
SSE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST
VA...TEMPS MAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S BUT 70F AGAIN FOR
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...PERHAPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO
DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING
OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER
SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP
SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING
PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM
STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD
COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL
FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END
OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BUT WILL REMAIN
VFR. ENOUGH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING TO RESULT IN 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR LWB AND BLF...THERE WILL
BE A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD
EVENING. AT THE MOMENT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY SUNDAY. DUE TO WEAK
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WHILE THE
FRONT IS IN CLOSER TO BLF AND LWB. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
AVIATION IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH A HIGH
FIRE DANGER CLASS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WILDLAND FIRE
ACTIVITY. WILL ISSUES A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED
THREAT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PW
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1047 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION MID THROUGH LATE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 0F 945 AM...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS SETTLING IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 12Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING TO 6500 FEET TODAY WITH NEARLY
UNOBSTRUCTED SKIES...EXCEPT POSSIBLY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ASSISTANCE FROM A ROBUST SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
DRIVEN BY A LARGE LAND/SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL. FAVORABLE
ONSHORE FETCH AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA...AND PARTS OF COLLETON AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES.
TONIGHT A DRY SHORT-WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SKIRT
THE ZONES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TIME-HEIGHT DEPICTIONS OF RH AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT IN A LAYER AROUND
800 MB AND SOME CUMULUS OR STRATO-CUMULUS WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING
AT DAYBREAK...BUT NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE PLANNED AS IT REMAINS
BONE-DRY ABOVE 7000 FEET. CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE SSW FLOW ALOFT. LATEST RAP MODEL DEPICTIONS
SHOW SSW WINDS AT 20 KT AT 200M/650FT. THIS WILL OFFSET IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT UNDER A CLEAR DOME OVERNIGHT....MINIMUMS
WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S WELL INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR EACH DAY SHOW A CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GOOD DIURNAL HEATING SETUP. INSTEAD...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
TO AROUND 80 OR INTO THE LOW 80S WHICH IS ON THE ORDER OF 4-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO...A PROGRESSIVE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE A BIT
COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS WELL...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY.
MONDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SHARPENING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
WEEKEND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STEADILY ERODING THROUGH THE DAY AND
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME LESS HOSTILE TO CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON
HEATING. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE INCREASING
POPS...WITH ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
CHANCE POP. GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA...AND ANY INSTABILITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE WEAK...THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS ISN/T EXPECTED TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ON TAP. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN
MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
CURRENT TIMING FROM THE MODELS FAVORS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
TUESDAY AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. POPS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR TUESDAY.
I HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND BE
REPLACED BY STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
IN NORTH OF THE AREA. IT THEN APPEARS THAT A PROLONGED INLAND WEDGE
EVENT WILL SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. I HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR LAND AREAS DURING THIS TIME...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN A COASTAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS JUST
OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE AFTER
18-19Z...ENHANCED BY DEEP MIXING. AS A RESULT...SPEEDS WILL PEAK
AT 12-17 KT SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET. COULD EXPERIENCE SOME GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS
LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...AND THIS WILL BE REVIEWED AGAIN IN
UPCOMING FORECASTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 945 AM...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND WSW INTO COASTAL SC AND GA...MAINTAINING A
MODERATE SW WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A VERY LARGE LAND/SEA
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME THE ENGINE
THAT PROPELS A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. COUPLING THIS FEATURE
WITH EXPECTED SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD YIELD GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. 1-2 FOOT WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...STRONG SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND
ONCE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DIE OFF THIS EVENING AND GENERAL SOUTH
AND SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TAKE OVER. SPEEDS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST
EARLY ON...UP NEAR 12-17 KT...THEN DROPS OFF TO UNDER 10 KT LATE.
SEAS WILL HOLD IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE...AVERAGING 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WINDS
BEING 10 KT OR LESS DURING THIS TIME...OTHER THAN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE IN THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES. SEAS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITHIN THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
CHS/MJC/JDW/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE I-64 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BLUEGRASS...AND THEN TAPERED THESE BACK TO
SCATTERED AS THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND BREAK UP MORE AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST...AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. THINNER CLOUD COVER OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
INSTABILITY...SO A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SOME
RESIDUAL FORCING FROM IT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW POP UPS IN THE SOUTH...SO
MAINLY JUST DELAYED THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER FOR NOW. ALSO FRESHENED
UP THE REST OF THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
JIVE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KY.
THE 6Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY POINTED
TOWARD LESS COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A SME TO JKL TO SJS LINE.
WE HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY IN ALL AREA FOR TODAY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z.
OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 3Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE 21Z TO 3Z
PERIOD...THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW CONTINUED WITH VCSH AND NO
MENTION OF THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
A BIT AROUND OR AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
729 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KY.
THE 6Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY POINTED
TOWARD LESS COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A SME TO JKL TO SJS LINE.
WE HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY IN ALL AREA FOR TODAY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OR NORTH
OF THE MTN PARKWAY MAY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STRAY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 18Z.
OTHERWISE...DURING THE 18Z TO 3Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE 21Z TO 3Z
PERIOD...THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE JKL TO SJS CORRIDOR APPEARS TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON STATION. WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THUNDER RATHER LOW CONTINUED WITH VCSH AND NO
MENTION OF THUNDER JUST YET. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT THE TAF STIES 4 TO 8 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE
A BIT AROUND OR AFTER 13Z...BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1201 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE AREA WILL ENTER INTO A WET PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN LASTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
TWO ITEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE AFFECTS OF THE
SHORTWAVE PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST AND HOW WARM WE GET IN THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE...ITS CURRENT POSITION CAN BE SEEN EASILY
IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN/WI. SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WITH QUITE A FEW SITES PICKING UP SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A HUNDRETH TO AROUND A TENTH IN
SPOTS. SOME LIGHTNING AS ALSO BEEN NOTED. FEEL THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE POINTS NEAR LUDINGTON AND PENTWATER TOWARDS 400 PM. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AT THIS POINT LEAVING OUT THUNDER GIVEN
HOW DRY WE ARE ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SURFACE RH VALUES ARE
DROPPING FROM 30 PCT TO 20 PCT AT THIS TIME. SO...IN GENERAL
PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR THE POINTS
TOWARDS EVENING. HRRR IS SHOWING SOME DECENT SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY IN THE AREA TOWARDS 00Z. GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA SHOWERS ARE COMPLETELY IN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITIES.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT MID 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GO A BIT WARMER EVEN IF WE GO SUPER
ADIABATIC DOWN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FROM THE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN PERIOD /AND
BEYOND/. NO REAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION THAT WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD NOW FOR DAYS.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF THE
FCST INTO SAT MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC IS IN PLACE RESULTING
FROM SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER
WAVE NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER MOVES EAST. THIS WAVE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL FOR THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE WAVE
HAS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT NOW...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR MASS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THE CHCS OF
MEASURABLE PCPN UP NORTH ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE INITIAL LACK OF
MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. ANY RAIN CHCS SHOULD END JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
WE WILL SEE THE RAIN SHOWER CHCS INCREASE THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SAT. THE FRONT THAT WILL SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL MAKE A RUN BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WAVE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND RESULT IN BETTER INFLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS IN FROM
THE WEST JUST AFTER 18Z ON SAT AND IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWFA. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY ON SAT WELL INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN TOO MUCH AND RAIN STARTS
FALLING.
THE SET UP FOR THE WET PERIOD THEN REALLY STARTS TAKING SHAPE SAT
NIGHT AND MORE SO ON SUN. THE SAT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH...HOWEVER
AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHIFTS THE UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF A SW
FLOW...AND IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. WE WILL THEN SEE
WAVES BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. VERY
MOIST AIR /PWATS OF AROUND 1-1.33 INCHES/ SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AS COLD
AIR IS ALSO DRAWN FROM THE NORTH.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH A LITTLE SUN MORNING BEHIND
THE SAT WAVE...BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS INTO PLAY FOR THE SRN
AREAS. THIS WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER ON
SUN.
THUNDER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR BEING ADVECTED IN ON A 40-50M KNOT LLJ. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
PORTION OF THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FAIRLY WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT /40-50 KNOTS/
TO HELP THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZING SOME STORMS WITH THE UPPER JET
NEARBY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD AS THE
MAIN/FINAL WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH A FEW TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN
CWFA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING... AND RIVER FLOODING COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS AND HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STORM TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN.
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES VERY CHALLENGING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHARPENS ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND COLD DRY
AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTH. SFC TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NEAR JXN IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE
LOWER 30S AT LUDINGTON WHICH SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN THE COLD AIR ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE NW CWFA LATE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR
FLOWS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S
BY THE END OF THE DAY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
BEFORE ENDING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOOKING RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW
DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT. MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH CLOUDS BASES MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER
THUS FAR THIS SPRING ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE RAINS START TO MOVE
IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...AND
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...MIN RH/S
LOOK TO STAY UP SOME AROUND 30 PCT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE END
UP DRIER THAN EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN...AND THE FIRE
DANGER ENDS UP A LITTLE HIGHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT INTO MON. INCREASED RISK FOR GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
COUPLE OF INGREDIENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
CAUSE HYDRO IMPACTS. THEY INCLUDE A SLOW MOVING FRONT...IT WILL
CONTAIN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. THIS OPENS
UP THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS REPEATING OVER THE SAME
AREA. IN ADDITION THE RIVER LEVELS ARE ELEVATED AND THE GROUND IS
MOIST. OVERALL FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED WHETHER THESE
ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA.
SMALL STREAMS WOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST...POSSIBLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE LARGER RIVERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...RIVERS GENERALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. THE RAINFALL FOR
TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS
UP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
HINDERED BY PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOME RAIN IS MAKING IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR THIS MORNING
IS VIRGA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN. THE
VIRGA/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
YESTERDAYS HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE VERY GRADUAL WARMING
TREND EVIDENT AT 850H ON THE RAP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. BOTH FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMING AND
EXPANDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 100+ KT JET STREAK TO THE
NE OF THE FA PLACES US SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL POKE INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS JET SUPPLY THIS AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING
PROVIDING STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET INDICATES STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
THESE AREAS AFTER 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE NAM
INDICATED A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION...PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE
QUICKLY OVERCOME IN THIS CASE. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND
WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE DO PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
09Z...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN POINTS:
1) PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
2) THERE ARE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE QPF
AXIS ON SUNDAY.
3) THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS NOW GOING COLDER
WITH TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
NOW THAT WE`RE 24-36 HOURS OUT FROM THE RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY...IT`S NO SURPRISE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM...WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE 800-600MB FGEN.
THE NAM THEREFORE HAS MORE WARMTH FARTHER NORTH AND THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP
MORE RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN. TRENDS IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION SUGGEST WESTERN MN...ESPECIALLY SW
MN COULD MISS OUT ON A LOT OF THE PRECIP WITH DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN MN. FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 0.10"-0.40" EVENT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING WHERE THERE IS EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THAT
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND BEST LI
NEAR 0. WE TRIED TO REMAIN STEADFAST IN KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AFTER
THE RAIN CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...WE ARE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN
A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THAN WE WERE A DAY OR TWO AGO.
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS IA...FAR SOUTHEAST MN AND
WI. THIS WILL BE MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF
BEING FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE 11.00/06 NAM SEEMS TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND THE TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER HASN`T BEEN GREAT FOR
THE NAM OUTSIDE OF IT`S 0-24HR FORECAST. WE SIDED WITH MORE OF A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND AND UNLESS WE SEE THESE THREE MODELING SYSTEMS
TREND ANOTHER 100-150 MILES NORTH...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY /CLOUDY/ FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 3-4 CYCLES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET.
SO...JUST AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR
NORMAL...WE SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR
HIGHS. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...ANOTHER NEAR ZERO NIGHT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN MN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
DEPART AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BOARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PACKAGE. DID INTRODUCE
EITHER VCSH OR -SHRA AT ALL SITES EXCEPT EAU...BECAUSE IT WILL NOT
REACH EAU UNTIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WIND FORECAST TODAY IS
TRICKY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING AT SOME SITES.
KMSP...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EVENTUALLY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ALONG
WITH IT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1043 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Stationary front is currently across far southern Missouri into
the southern tip of Illinois. Latest run of the RAP shows some
instability developing along the pooling dewpoints this afternoon
right along the front. Think that this area will be the only
location for any isolated storms to form, so have shifted slight
chances to the far southern counties for this afternoon only.
Otherwise temperatures are warming nicely, even with the clouds
and the east winds, so added a degree or two to the highs. This
current batch of mid-high clouds will continue to move quickly
east and should exit the eastern counties by mid-late afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
A stalled cold front which was located south of the CWA at 05z will
lift slightly northward as a warm front later today. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible near the front during
the afternoon hours, mainly across the southern part of the CWA
including the eastern Ozarks. Most areas should remain dry today.
Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
(Saturday-Monday)
Overnight increase of southerly low level flow should allow
frontal boundary to lift back north across the area, placing the
entire CWA in the warm sector no later than midday. MET/MAV MOS is
trying to develop some lower clouds late tonight and then linger
it throughout the day on Saturday, but given what appears to be a
very thin ribbon of stratified low level moisture not certain this
cloudiness will actually develop, and if it does even more dubious
that it would be able to hang around all day. Have gone several
degrees above warmest MOS based on this spring`s trend of guidance
being consistently too cool during warmups, and if there are even
fewer clouds we may need to tack several more degrees onto this.
Saturday night, Sunday, and into Sunday night, attention turns to
increasing thunderstorm chances with strong upper level trof and
associated cold front. I have introduced a slight chance of storms
as early as Saturday afternoon in our far north for the outside
chance of renegade storms, but it would appear that a much better
chance of storms in our northern and western areas would be later
Saturday night as storms that fire along cold front over IA during
the late afternoon and early evening hours slowly work east. All
of the 00z guidance is also consistent in suggesting a secondary
area of convection developing over northwest MO along zone of low
level convergence that will also work east during the predawn hours.
Categorical PoPs will overspread the region from NW to SE on Sunday
and Sunday night as cold front and strong trof work their way into
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A few severe storms or strong line
segments will be possible with convective initiation along the cold
front during the afternoon and early evening as 00z runs are
suggesting MLCAPES 1500-2000 j/kg during max heating along with
30-50kts of deep layer shear. In addition, the ample moisture, slow
system movement, intense baroclinicity and strong dynamics (with
some possible coupling between jet cores in the northern and
southern streams) all suggest widespread rains aoa 1" over the
northwest half of the CWA in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame.
Models have come into much better agreement with timing of front
across the region, and by 12z Monday the strong cold front will
extend from the Missouri Bootheel to extreme southern IL, placing
the entire CWA in the much colder air. This should mean a cold and
blustery Monday, with rain winding down from west to east across the
FA. Temperatures will be nearly steady in our SE counties due to
the strong CAA and rain, and in the west where the rain will end
early only expecting a 5-10 degree rebound from early morning lows.
(Tuesday-Thursday)
Monday`s chilly weather will continue into Tuesday, and right now it
appears that Tuesday Morning`s lows will be in the 30-35 degree
range. It`s difficult to time surface features this far out, but if
00z guidance is correct winds will be too strong for much in the way
of frost, in spite of these chilly readings. Highs will be in the
50s.
Region should then experience a warming trend heading into midweek as
upper trof swings into the East Coast and heights rebound across the
Central CONUS, with highs well in the 60s by Thursday.
With dry air and dynamics remaining well to the north and west of
the CWA don`t foresee any rain threat in the Tuesday-Thursday time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
VFR for at least the first 6-12 hours and probably longer. Some
MVFR stratus is possible at KCOU/KCPS/KSUS tomorrow morning around
daybreak. Winds remain northeast on the cool side of a stalled
frontal boundary, then become southeast to south once the boundary
lifts north.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR for at least the first 6-12 hours and
probably longer. Some MVFR stratus is possible tomorrow morning
around daybreak. Winds remain northeast on the cool side of a
stalled frontal boundary, then become southeast to south once the
boundary lifts north.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
805 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS STILL FALLING APART.
NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER OH WITH THE NEXT WAVE.
12Z TAFS SENT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKEN AS IT MOVED INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE IS A WAVE...WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE
HAD. STILL SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A
LARGE RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
THUS MORE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/CERU
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS STILL FALLING APART.
NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER OH WITH THE NEXT WAVE.
12Z TAFS SENT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS WEAKEN AS IT MOVED INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE IS A WAVE...WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE
HAD. STILL SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A
LARGE RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
THUS MORE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN/LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
607 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE STATE TODAY...BEFORE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHRINKING BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM
MODELS...SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN PRECIP FOR EARLY TODAY
BEFORE A NEW WAVE HELPS REDEVELOP THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE INITIAL WAVE LIFTING INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND. A
NEW WAVE IS RACING EAST THROUGH NRN ILLINOIS...AND THE LAST HOUR
OR SO OF REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING
OVER NRN INDIANA AND OHIO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW WAVE. THIS SEEMS
TO BE WHAT THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW MOVING INTO FIRST WESTERN...THEN
CENTRAL PA BY MID DAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS STABILITY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL GOVERN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
INSTABILITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITH THE LATEST THINKING BEING
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE
AREA. AT THIS STAGE I INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MID DAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS POOLING OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS THE NEW JET STREAK HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NEW SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50" LOOKING
REASONABLE.
PERHAPS THE BIGGEST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG TEMP
BUSTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT. I BANKED
ON A FAIRLY MILD DAY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AREA...BUT
AGAIN...BIG BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES
BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES IN LATER TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE VERY WELCOME 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF MAINLY FAIR AND MILD AS A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES SLIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...KEEPING US IN MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SREF/GEFS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT SEEMS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTA SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE AREA TOPPING 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
BREEZE.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY-WARMTH AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND COULD MAKE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FIRE-WEATHER DAYS. WILL HAVE TO GET A GAGE ON
HOW MUCH THE RAIN MANAGES WET DOWN THE FUELS TODAY AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FINAL WAVE IN THE SERIES MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE...AND THE POTENT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF
THINGS...THIS ISN`T TERRIBLY EXCITING EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
WHAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY MORE INTERESTING IS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
THE GEFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP OVER THE SERN STATES BEFORE SLIDING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY. THE MODELS MANAGE
TO PHASE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT RESULTS IN A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE
NERN US. IT`S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY MAKE SNOW FALL OUT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD. IT`S AN UGLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT
TIMING FAVORING MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THE TIME OF DAY AND PRECIP RATES
USUALLY PLAY A LARGE ROLL IN SNOW POTENTIAL SO IT WOULD SEEM AT
THIS POINT THE PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE SMALL.
HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN A LONG AND RELENTLESS WINTER AND I WON`T BE
SURPRISED IF PART SO OF OUR AREA ENDS UP WITH SOME UNWELCOME
WHITE STUFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ASSURE THE END OF THE
WEEK IS BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS FALLING APART.
9Z TAFS ADJUSTED.
RADAR STILLS SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OH.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A COLD FRONT OVER NW PA AS OF 3 AM HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. NORMALLY WOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY VFR EAST AND SOUTH OF
BFD...BUT THERE IS A WAVE JUST WEST OF LAKE MI. STILL SOME RISK OF
LLWS EARLY TODAY.
THUS WENT WITH LOWER CIGS THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAD. STILL
SOME SPREAD IN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A LARGE
RANGE TEMPS AND CIGS...AS LOW DROPS SE LATER TODAY.
A LARGE SCALE WARM UP STARTS THIS WEEKEND.
COLDER CONDITIONS AFT MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSSIBLE SOUTH.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS...BUT RAIN WILL DECREASE THE RISK OF FIRE
TODAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD POSE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
FIRE WEATHER...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 12/12Z. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS DYNAMICS WEAKENING
PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KOHX...AND WILL NOT MENTION LLWS FROM FIRST
FM GROUP...BUT ISO GUSTS OF 30-40KTS WITHIN 2KFT AGL POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM N AND BEST OVERALL INSTABILITY NW PORTIONS
OF MID STATE 11/17Z-12/00Z...MENTIONED TEMPO TSTMS CKV WITH MVFR VSBYS 11/18Z-
11/22Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH LOCATION DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAINTY...MENTION VCTS
REMARKS ONLY. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO END AFTER DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES
SUBSIDE 12/01Z-12/02Z...WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED 12/06Z-12/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. ENOUGH
SFC FORCING WILL STILL RESIDE SO AS TO SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF LOW
POPS FOR TODAY. HRRR LOOKING DRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER...CAPE
VALUES WILL INCH UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH SOME CAP
REDUCTION AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT APPROACHES. 20 TO 30 POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO RESIDE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ELEVATED
HEIGHTS WITH SOME RIDGING TENDENCIES. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
HAPPENS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE FROM TX NE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH AND MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN
ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLAY SO AS TO PROVIDE A POST
FRONTAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NEGATIVE 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL SECTOR OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SOUNDING
PROFILES DOES ACTUALLY SUPPORT A FLAKE OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER PLATEAU ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL ADHERE
TO THE CURRENT FCST AND ONLY INCLUDE A COLD SHOWERY RAINY DAY.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THE MONDAY FROPA.
TUESDAY LOOKING MORE LIKE A COLD RAINY AND RAW DAY FOR MID APRIL.
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON WED MORNING. SO...AS
THE SKIES CLEAR...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. FREEZE AND
OR FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED AT SOME POINT. TEMPS WILL
INCH UP TOWARD SEASONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1016 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE ADJUSTMENT LATER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT NOT VERY FAR SOUTH. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
18Z/2PM. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
EVEN BE AFTER 00Z/8PM. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT....SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
ONE INCH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON THURSDAY SO EXPECTING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER. ENOUGH SUN IN ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH VALUES CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND SPEED MOST LOCATIONS FOR
NEAR SURFACE AIR TO STAY MIXED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SENDS
IMPRESSIVELY WARM AIR OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. 80F IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WARMER SPOTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTAIN MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP...SO KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. DEEP
SSE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST
VA...TEMPS MAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S BUT 70F AGAIN FOR
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...PERHAPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO
DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING
OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER
SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP
SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING
PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM
STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD
COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL
FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END
OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BUT WILL REMAIN
VFR. ENOUGH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING TO RESULT IN 20
TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR LWB AND BLF...THERE WILL
BE A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD
EVENING. AT THE MOMENT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY SUNDAY. DUE TO WEAK
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WHILE THE
FRONT IS IN CLOSER TO BLF AND LWB. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
AVIATION IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH A HIGH
FIRE DANGER CLASS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WILDLAND FIRE
ACTIVITY. WILL ISSUES A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED
THREAT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/PW
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SUDDEN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO SEEING SOME
CLOUD TO CLOUD...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SO ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LATEST TRENDS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION OUT TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN KY THAT APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT ALSO GENERATE ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW AM NOT BUYING INTO NEW CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH CURRENT FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. BUT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST IS MAKING A BEE LINE STRAIGHT EASTWARD TOWARDS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. WILL BE LOOKING OVER TRENDS A BIT MORE
CAREFULLY. SUSPECT ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE IN THE MAKING WITHIN
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH DUSK BEFORE LIGHTENING UP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ENGAGE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
EARLIER TODAY. THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT AS IT HAS SAGGED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OF IT AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE ACROSS MISSOURI...WITH CONVECTION
STARTING TO BLOSSOM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BOOTHEEL.
EXPECT A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE MAY POSSIBLY BRUSH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE PATH...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH...AND
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE WEAK PUSH BEHIND IT...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS SUCH...HAVE LIMITED A SMALL RESURGENCE OF THE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS
THIN OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MILD NIGHT WITH RIDGE/VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. COOLER SPOTS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE
RIDGETOPS STAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
OVERALL...THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE BIG PICTURE SHOWN IN THE MODELS DEPICTS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ITS WELL DEFINED TRAILING COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS RESPECTIVELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM IS THROUGH THE
AREA...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO END TO
UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF WARM AND DRY...AS A
VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD REACH
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DECIDED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES MORE
TOWARD THE WARMER MEXMOS GUIDANCE...AS THOSE NUMBER SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS ONCE AGAIN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST. AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND WINDS DIE DOWN TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FROST TO FORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE WAS
PREFERRED HERE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A KILLING FREEZE MIGHT EVEN OCCUR IF THE VALLEYS ARE
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO
BE SURE.
THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS FOR A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING ONLY MEAGER
INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WHICH
WOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS OR
INTENSE SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST. THE MODEL PLAN VIEWS WERE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF THIS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE
GFS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY...DECIDED
TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...GOING WITH 6 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
ECMWF DATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH DUSK BEFORE LIGHTENING UP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ENGAGE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLOWED TO A CRAWL WITH THEIR
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY INITIATING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS NOW DWINDLING MORE RAPIDLY
NOW...AS AN 850 MB JET RELAXES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS. THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO GEN
UP SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THESE MAY BRUSH
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND THIS WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH
HARDLY ANY PUSH BEHIND IT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO RAMP UP
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
CLOSER TO I-64...WHERE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE I-64 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BLUEGRASS...AND THEN TAPERED THESE BACK TO
SCATTERED AS THIS LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND BREAK UP MORE AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST...AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. THINNER CLOUD COVER OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
INSTABILITY...SO A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE...AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT SOME
RESIDUAL FORCING FROM IT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW POP UPS IN THE SOUTH...SO
MAINLY JUST DELAYED THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER FOR NOW. ALSO FRESHENED
UP THE REST OF THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
JIVE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KY.
THE 6Z MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY POINTED
TOWARD LESS COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A SME TO JKL TO SJS LINE.
WE HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY IN ALL AREA FOR TODAY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY...A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS DEVELOPED WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MANY
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST TO INTERSTATE 75 AND TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S. HAS A LINGERING INFLUENCE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN KY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LAGGING...RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT THEN
STALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MODELS HAVE SOME MODEST LIFT LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ALSO
APPEAR REASONABLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
THREE QUARTERS OR SO OF THE ARE AND LEADS TO SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR BRING
CONVECTION SOUTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND NORTH AROUND
DAWN AND THEN HAS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MANLY NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THE 0Z NAM AND 0Z GFS ARE
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS WITH SOME CONVECTION OR AN OUTFLOW
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN AND THEN SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUGGEST A BIT
HIGHER COVERAGE THAN SUGGESTED BY MOS GUIDANCE. THE 3Z SREF ALSO HAS
THE HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
AND HAVE WENT SIMILAR TO THOSE RANGES FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE LOWEST POPS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO
LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WE HAVE
CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE DOWNSLOPE AS
WELL FOR SATURDAY AND WE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MAX TO TOWARD THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
GENERALLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT SYSTEM A BIT. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY. IN
FACT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SUNDAY MAY FALL UNDER 25% AGAIN. WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS PERIOD WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
THE WEATHER WILL THEN TURN MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO MONDAY AS AN
INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. ALL THE BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA...WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS THEY CROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRAILS OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH STRONG PHASING
ANTICIPATED...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD FIRM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FALL WELL INTO THE 20S...LEADING TO FROST AND A
POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE FOR ANY FRUIT TREES OR PLANTS WHICH ARE
ALREADY IN BLOOM. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE TAF
SITES...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND THE I-64 CORRIDOR THROUGH 20Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH DUSK BEFORE LIGHTENING UP. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN ENGAGE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
117 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE AREA WILL ENTER INTO A WET PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN LASTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
TWO ITEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE AFFECTS OF THE
SHORTWAVE PRESSING IN FROM THE WEST AND HOW WARM WE GET IN THE SOUTH.
REGARDING THE SHORTWAVE...ITS CURRENT POSITION CAN BE SEEN EASILY
IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN/WI. SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WITH QUITE A FEW SITES PICKING UP SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A HUNDREDTH TO AROUND A TENTH IN
SPOTS. SOME LIGHTNING AS ALSO BEEN NOTED. FEEL THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO THE POINTS NEAR LUDINGTON AND PENTWATER TOWARDS 400 PM. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. AT THIS POINT LEAVING OUT THUNDER GIVEN
HOW DRY WE ARE ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SURFACE RH VALUES ARE
DROPPING FROM 30 PCT TO 20 PCT AT THIS TIME. SO...IN GENERAL
PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR THE POINTS
TOWARDS EVENING. HRRR IS SHOWING SOME DECENT SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY IN THE AREA TOWARDS 00Z. GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA SHOWERS ARE COMPLETELY IN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITIES.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT MID 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GO A BIT WARMER EVEN IF WE GO SUPER
ADIABATIC DOWN LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND WET PERIOD EXPECTED FROM THE LATE SAT THROUGH SUN PERIOD /AND
BEYOND/. NO REAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION THAT WE HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD NOW FOR DAYS.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF THE
FCST INTO SAT MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC IS IN PLACE RESULTING
FROM SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER
WAVE NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER MOVES EAST. THIS WAVE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL FOR THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE WAVE
HAS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT NOW...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER A DRY AIR MASS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THE CHCS OF
MEASURABLE PCPN UP NORTH ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE INITIAL LACK OF
MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. ANY RAIN CHCS SHOULD END JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
WE WILL SEE THE RAIN SHOWER CHCS INCREASE THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SAT. THE FRONT THAT WILL SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL MAKE A RUN BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WAVE WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND RESULT IN BETTER INFLOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS IN FROM
THE WEST JUST AFTER 18Z ON SAT AND IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWFA. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY ON SAT WELL INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN TOO MUCH AND RAIN STARTS
FALLING.
THE SET UP FOR THE WET PERIOD THEN REALLY STARTS TAKING SHAPE SAT
NIGHT AND MORE SO ON SUN. THE SAT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH...HOWEVER
AS IT DOES SO ANOTHER STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHIFTS THE UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF A SW
FLOW...AND IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. WE WILL THEN SEE
WAVES BE EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. VERY
MOIST AIR /PWATS OF AROUND 1-1.33 INCHES/ SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AS COLD
AIR IS ALSO DRAWN FROM THE NORTH.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWFA. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH A LITTLE SUN MORNING BEHIND
THE SAT WAVE...BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS INTO PLAY FOR THE SRN
AREAS. THIS WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATER ON
SUN.
THUNDER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR BEING ADVECTED IN ON A 40-50M KNOT LLJ. WE WILL ALSO SEE A
PORTION OF THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FAIRLY WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT /40-50 KNOTS/
TO HELP THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZING SOME STORMS WITH THE UPPER JET
NEARBY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD AS THE
MAIN/FINAL WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL DURING THIS TIME WITH A FEW TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN
CWFA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING... AND RIVER FLOODING COULD PERSIST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS AND HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS STORM TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN.
PRECIP TYPE BECOMES VERY CHALLENGING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHARPENS ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND COLD DRY
AIR BEGINS TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTH. SFC TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NEAR JXN IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE
LOWER 30S AT LUDINGTON WHICH SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN THE COLD AIR ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE NW CWFA LATE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR
FLOWS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S
BY THE END OF THE DAY. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
BEFORE ENDING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOOKING RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW
DUE TO THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT. MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD NOON...BUT VFR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
UNTIL THEN WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER
THUS FAR THIS SPRING ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE RAINS START TO MOVE
IN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOWER 70S ON SAT...AND
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...MIN RH/S
LOOK TO STAY UP SOME AROUND 30 PCT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE END
UP DRIER THAN EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN...AND THE FIRE
DANGER ENDS UP A LITTLE HIGHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARDS TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT INTO MON. INCREASED RISK FOR GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
COUPLE OF INGREDIENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
CAUSE HYDRO IMPACTS. THEY INCLUDE A SLOW MOVING FRONT...IT WILL
CONTAIN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. THIS OPENS
UP THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS REPEATING OVER THE SAME
AREA. IN ADDITION THE RIVER LEVELS ARE ELEVATED AND THE GROUND IS
MOIST. OVERALL FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED WHETHER THESE
ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA.
SMALL STREAMS WOULD BE IMPACTED FIRST...POSSIBLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE LARGER RIVERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE NOT CERTAIN TO HAPPEN...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...RIVERS GENERALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. THE RAINFALL FOR
TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS
UP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
154 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE
HINDERED BY PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. SOME RAIN IS MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE...BUT MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR THIS
MORNING IS VIRGA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES REPORTING VERY LIGHT
RAIN. THE VIRGA/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED YESTERDAYS HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE VERY
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EVIDENT AT 850H ON THE RAP THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. BOTH FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO PRECIPITATION FORMING AND
EXPANDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 100+ KT JET STREAK TO THE
NE OF THE FA PLACES US SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL POKE INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS JET SUPPLY THIS AREA WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE
OCCURRING PROVIDING STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET INDICATES STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THESE AREAS AFTER 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. THE NAM INDICATED A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION...PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OCCURRING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE QUICKLY OVERCOME IN THIS
CASE. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE DO
PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER 09Z...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN POINTS:
1) PRECIP EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.
2) THERE ARE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE QPF
AXIS ON SUNDAY.
3) THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS NOW GOING COLDER
WITH TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
NOW THAT WE`RE 24-36 HOURS OUT FROM THE RAIN EVENT ON
SATURDAY...IT`S NO SURPRISE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF RAIN AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE NAM...WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE 800-600MB FGEN.
THE NAM THEREFORE HAS MORE WARMTH FARTHER NORTH AND THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MN...WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP
MORE RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN. TRENDS IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION SUGGEST WESTERN MN...ESPECIALLY SW
MN COULD MISS OUT ON A LOT OF THE PRECIP WITH DEVELOPMENT MORE
LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO IN MN. FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 0.10"-0.40" EVENT WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING WHERE THERE IS EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THAT
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE TONGUE OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND BEST LI
NEAR 0. WE TRIED TO REMAIN STEADFAST IN KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR OR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AFTER
THE RAIN CLEARS SATURDAY MORNING...WE ARE MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN A
MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THAN WE WERE A DAY OR TWO AGO.
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALL DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST FORCING ACROSS IA...FAR SOUTHEAST MN AND
WI. THIS WILL BE MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF
BEING FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE 11.00/06 NAM SEEMS TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND THE TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER HASN`T BEEN GREAT FOR
THE NAM OUTSIDE OF IT`S 0-24HR FORECAST. WE SIDED WITH MORE OF A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND AND UNLESS WE SEE THESE THREE MODELING SYSTEMS
TREND ANOTHER 100-150 MILES NORTH...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY /CLOUDY/
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 3-4 CYCLES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET.
SO...JUST AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR
NORMAL...WE SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR
HIGHS. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...ANOTHER NEAR ZERO NIGHT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS IN NORTHERN MN TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY TRICKY THRU THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE DAY
TDA. HAVE SEEN WINDS ALL OVER THE COMPASS WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT THRU
NOON...DUE TO A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED AND WOBBLING ACRS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MN. WITH THIS BOUNDARY DISSIPATING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE E...WINDS ARE FINALLY GOING TO NW WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS HAS ALSO
ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCRS FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND STEADILY
LOWER. INTERMITTENT SHWRS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER...NOTHING THAT WOULD REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDS. STEADIER -RA WILL DEVELOP FROM W TO E ACRS THE COVERAGE
AREA DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS...WITH SOME HEAVIER RAIN ARND DAYBREAK
AND THESE SHWRS MAY DROP CONDS INTO MVFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...PRECIP
INTENSITY WILL GENERALLY LESSEN...AND EVEN END ALTOGETHER...FOR
THE MN SITES WHILE THE WI SITES WILL LIKELY SEE -RA THRU MIDDAY
SAT. IN THE MORE PERSISTENT SHWRS IS WHERE CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE
CAN BE EXPECTED.
KMSP...WINDS HAVE FINALLY SWITCHED TO NW SHORTLY AFTER
INITIALIZATION TIME SO HAVE OPTED TO DO A QUICK AMD AFTER ISSUING
THE ROUTINE TAF TO INDICATE PREVAILING NW WINDS. AM ALSO SEEING
THE MIDLVL AFTN CU CLOUDS POP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THESE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU SUNSET. GOING INTO THIS EVE...
HIGH STRATUS WILL FILTER IN AND STEADILY LOWER WHILE INCRG IN
COVERAGE TNGT INTO SAT MRNG. SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT -SHRA MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA ARND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE MORE STEADIER RAIN WILL
DEVELOP DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS. NOT EXPECTING PROLONGED DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDS BUT SOME OCNL MVFR PERIODS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING TWD
DAYBREAK. AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS...MIDLVL CIGS WILL REMAIN. WINDS
WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL THIS EVE THEN SWAP TO SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRES. SE TO S WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE SAT MRNG
THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND W LATE TMRW AFTN AS LOW PRES MOVES
ACRS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ025-026-028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
101 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Stationary front is currently across far southern Missouri into
the southern tip of Illinois. Latest run of the RAP shows some
instability developing along the pooling dewpoints this afternoon
right along the front. Think that this area will be the only
location for any isolated storms to form, so have shifted slight
chances to the far southern counties for this afternoon only.
Otherwise temperatures are warming nicely, even with the clouds
and the east winds, so added a degree or two to the highs. This
current batch of mid-high clouds will continue to move quickly
east and should exit the eastern counties by mid-late afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
A stalled cold front which was located south of the CWA at 05z will
lift slightly northward as a warm front later today. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible near the front during
the afternoon hours, mainly across the southern part of the CWA
including the eastern Ozarks. Most areas should remain dry today.
Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
(Saturday-Monday)
Overnight increase of southerly low level flow should allow
frontal boundary to lift back north across the area, placing the
entire CWA in the warm sector no later than midday. MET/MAV MOS is
trying to develop some lower clouds late tonight and then linger
it throughout the day on Saturday, but given what appears to be a
very thin ribbon of stratified low level moisture not certain this
cloudiness will actually develop, and if it does even more dubious
that it would be able to hang around all day. Have gone several
degrees above warmest MOS based on this spring`s trend of guidance
being consistently too cool during warmups, and if there are even
fewer clouds we may need to tack several more degrees onto this.
Saturday night, Sunday, and into Sunday night, attention turns to
increasing thunderstorm chances with strong upper level trof and
associated cold front. I have introduced a slight chance of storms
as early as Saturday afternoon in our far north for the outside
chance of renegade storms, but it would appear that a much better
chance of storms in our northern and western areas would be later
Saturday night as storms that fire along cold front over IA during
the late afternoon and early evening hours slowly work east. All
of the 00z guidance is also consistent in suggesting a secondary
area of convection developing over northwest MO along zone of low
level convergence that will also work east during the predawn hours.
Categorical PoPs will overspread the region from NW to SE on Sunday
and Sunday night as cold front and strong trof work their way into
the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A few severe storms or strong line
segments will be possible with convective initiation along the cold
front during the afternoon and early evening as 00z runs are
suggesting MLCAPES 1500-2000 j/kg during max heating along with
30-50kts of deep layer shear. In addition, the ample moisture, slow
system movement, intense baroclinicity and strong dynamics (with
some possible coupling between jet cores in the northern and
southern streams) all suggest widespread rains aoa 1" over the
northwest half of the CWA in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame.
Models have come into much better agreement with timing of front
across the region, and by 12z Monday the strong cold front will
extend from the Missouri Bootheel to extreme southern IL, placing
the entire CWA in the much colder air. This should mean a cold and
blustery Monday, with rain winding down from west to east across the
FA. Temperatures will be nearly steady in our SE counties due to
the strong CAA and rain, and in the west where the rain will end
early only expecting a 5-10 degree rebound from early morning lows.
(Tuesday-Thursday)
Monday`s chilly weather will continue into Tuesday, and right now it
appears that Tuesday Morning`s lows will be in the 30-35 degree
range. It`s difficult to time surface features this far out, but if
00z guidance is correct winds will be too strong for much in the way
of frost, in spite of these chilly readings. Highs will be in the
50s.
Region should then experience a warming trend heading into midweek as
upper trof swings into the East Coast and heights rebound across the
Central CONUS, with highs well in the 60s by Thursday.
With dry air and dynamics remaining well to the north and west of
the CWA don`t foresee any rain threat in the Tuesday-Thursday time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Dry conditions are expected through the period. Low level moisture
will move up into the area late tonight into tomorrow morning
bringing scattered-broken ceilings between 3000-5000 feet.
High pressure will move through the area this afternoon causing
generally light winds. Winds will increase out of the south by
tomorrow morning and become gusty.
Specifics for KSTL: Generally dry and VFR conditions are expected
through the next 36 hours. Only exception may be late tonight
when low VFR clouds move into the area. There is some possibility
that clouds could drop into the high MVFR category between 09-14Z,
though chances are too low to include in the TAF at this time.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THIS TAF PERIOD REGARDING TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR AIRPORTS THIS EVENING.
LEANED HEAVILY ON HRRR WHICH SHOWS SOME -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR CKV/BNA
BETWEEN 23-02Z BUT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT NEARS CSV TOWARDS
02-05Z. ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED -SHRA BETWEEN
NOW AND 23Z...BUT TOO UNLIKELY TO MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
KEEPING EYE ON SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OFF WITH NO CU FIELD YET. THIS AREA
IN MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ALONG WITH OTHER PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THINK WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-20Z TIME
FRAME SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ACTIVITY THEN MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AROUND 23Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
120 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEW YORK TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING AND WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY TRAVELING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WESTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OCCURRING
AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS QUITE
SHALLOW. RNK WRFARW CONTINUES TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
ITS MOISTURE. THE LATEST RUN WAITS TO AFTER 00Z BEFORE BRINGING
IN CONVECTION TO NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA. DECIDED TO SLOW THE
TIMING OF POPS/SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. RAISED TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. MORE CHANGES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ACROSS OHIO THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE ADJUSTMENT LATER...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT NOT VERY FAR SOUTH. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL
18Z/2PM. NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL
EVEN BE AFTER 00Z/8PM. RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT....SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL BE CLOSE TO 50 DEGREES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
ONE INCH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING THAN ON THURSDAY SO EXPECTING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMER. ENOUGH SUN IN ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REACH VALUES CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND SPEED MOST LOCATIONS FOR
NEAR SURFACE AIR TO STAY MIXED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DEEPENING TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SENDS
IMPRESSIVELY WARM AIR OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. 80F IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WARMER SPOTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTAIN MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED THE DRIER
DEWPOINTS WITH DEEP MIXING EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP...SO KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. DEEP
SSE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SW VA AND SE WEST
VA...TEMPS MAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S BUT 70F AGAIN FOR
THE NC/VA PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...PERHAPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. SYSTEM HAS TWO
DISTINCT STREAMS TO WORK WITH...AND QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PHASING
OF NRN AND SRN STREAM OCCURS. 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE STREAMS UNPHASED
BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM
TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A STRONGER SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/GA/FL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER
SYSTEM CLOSING OFF HERE AS WELL WHICH COULD HANG THE FRONT UP
SOME. KEPT POPS IN THE EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX TAKING
PLACE WED-THU. APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL BE LAGGING ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS IF THE STORM
STRENGTHENS OR PHASES TO GET SOME WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW TURNING NE. WEDGE SETS UP BUT CLOUD
COVER LOOKS MINIMAL SO ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...KEEPING IT DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT POTENTIAL
FOR RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE PIEDMONT EXISTS AS FLOW TURNS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVERALL THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG IT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. ENOUGH DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT LWB AND BLF...THERE WILL BE A SLOWLY INCREASING
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE
MOMENT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY SUNDAY. DUE TO WEAK
FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STAY
MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER WHILE THE
FRONT IS IN CLOSER TO BLF AND LWB. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO
AVIATION IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END
OF THE 06Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST TO TRIGGER A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DEPART.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. AIR TEMPERATURES EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
LOWERING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH A HIGH
FIRE DANGER CLASS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WILDLAND FIRE
ACTIVITY. WILL ISSUES A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ENHANCED
THREAT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
FIRE WEATHER...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
547 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
HELPING TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN
RAPIDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BECAUSE OF THE RAIN OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE READINGS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
ANTICIPATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD
THEN TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TIMING RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES...A LLJ UPWARDS OF 50 KTS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY GOOD WITHIN THE
LLJ...ADVECTING PWATS GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE AN AREA RAIN DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT. A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME RAIN CAN SNEAK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ONCE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RAIN
SHOWERS EXIT. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
NOSE OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED LLJ WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF WISCONSIN ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ADD A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY HOW PRECIP
WILL EVOLVE TOMORROW...AS A RESULT OF INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. LEANING
TOWARD AN AREA OF RAIN FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 6.5
C/KM...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH AT SPOTS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AN ISSUANCE OF AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A
QUARTER TO HALF OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MUCH LESS FARTHER NW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVG. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS A SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND
DYNAMICS RAMP UP DUE TO THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF
GRB CWA. COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
WILL PULL OUT OF EASTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...ONLY EXPECTING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST PLACES...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...IN THE EVENT THE SNOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN FROM WEDS NGT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND 7 PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. DO NOT
HAVE THUNDER IN THE 00Z TAFS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MERRILL TO MARINETTE...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE
PCPN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING SOME HEAVY
PCPN OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL
LET THE HYDRO FOCAL POINT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SITUATION
TONIGHT...AND ASSESS WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ESF FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS
HELPING TO KICK OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN
RAPIDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HELD BACK BECAUSE OF THE RAIN OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE READINGS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
ANTICIPATE THIS SHORTWAVE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND SHOULD
THEN TAKE PLACE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TIMING RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WILL GENERATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF BOTH FEATURES...A LLJ UPWARDS OF 50 KTS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY GOOD WITHIN THE
LLJ...ADVECTING PWATS GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE AN AREA RAIN DEVELOP
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT. A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME RAIN CAN SNEAK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK...AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ONCE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RAIN
SHOWERS EXIT. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
NOSE OF THE WELL-DEVELOPED LLJ WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE OF WISCONSIN ALONG THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET...WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ADD A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY HOW PRECIP
WILL EVOLVE TOMORROW...AS A RESULT OF INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. LEANING
TOWARD AN AREA OF RAIN FOLLOWING THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 6.5
C/KM...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH AT SPOTS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR AN ISSUANCE OF AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
MONDAY...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A
QUARTER TO HALF OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND MUCH LESS FARTHER NW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS
IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVG. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS A SFC WAVE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND
DYNAMICS RAMP UP DUE TO THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS PERIOD OF RAIN SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF
GRB CWA. COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
WILL PULL OUT OF EASTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...ONLY EXPECTING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN MOST PLACES...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...IN THE EVENT THE SNOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN FROM WEDS NGT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT COULD DROP VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE
BRIEFLY. A PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL THEN OCCUR ONCE THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE DEPARTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE GATHERING STRENGTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE BUILDING AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER. RAIN WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TO MID-MORNING...WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING QUICKLY WHEN THE RAIN
ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014
CONSIDERED ISSUING AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MERRILL TO MARINETTE...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE
PCPN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING SOME HEAVY
PCPN OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL
LET THE HYDRO FOCAL POINT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SITUATION
TONIGHT...AND ASSESS WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ESF FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH