Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
753 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.AVIATION...INCREASING EXPECTED COLD FRONT WINDSPEEDS DUE TO
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. ALSO SPEEDING
UP FRONTAL TIMING AS IT PASSED THROUGH CASPER AROUND 7PM. GENERAL
RULE OF THUMB IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FOR A FRONT TO REACH THE DENVER
METRO AREA FROM CASPER. NOW LOOKING AT ABOUT A 01Z FROPA
TIMING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD BE SOONER AS CONVECTION UP
NORTH HAS PRODUCED OUTFLOWS TO POTENTIALLY HELP PUSH IT ALONG
FASTER. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS...EXPECT IT SHOULD STAY SCT
OR FEW AROUND 030. EXPECT THEN THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING...MAYBE FORMING A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE THAT COULD MESS UP SOME OF THE TAF WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...THE WAVE CLOUD DID INDEED SHIFT EASTWARD ALTHOUGH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED IN...BUT UNDER INCREASED
SUN TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO THE 70S. SOME CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY WENT
WITH THE 18Z RAP MODEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT ON THE
PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AND/OR FOG BEHIND THIS
BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.
THE FLOW QUICKLY COMES AROUND TO SOUTHEAST ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW
WITH PERHAPS A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE FORMING ALTHOUGH WINDS BY LATE
IN THE DAY MAY WELL GO BACK TO WESTERLY AGAIN. COOLER BY ABOUT 6
TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW ON THE PLAINS BUT ABOUT THE SAME IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT IS SHALLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
HELP FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. KEPT THE CHANCE OF THESE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE
WAVE FRIDAY WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD. A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH WYOMING SATURDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. SO
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY.
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL BRING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NOT ANY WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS...SO EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE SPORADIC THEN THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON ALHTOUGH GENERALLY WESTERLY. SHOULD GO TO LIGHT FLOW
WITH DRAINAGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SHIFTS THE
WINDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THEN THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING...MAYBE FORMING A WEAK
DENVER CYCLONE THAT COULD MESS UP SOME OF THE TAF WIND
DIRECTIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1028 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
AND PASSES NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS FAIR COOLER WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT MAY BRING SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO
SAT. DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE MON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH DEPARTING SW LLJ IS EXITING
EASTERN MA...BUT SHOWERS LIFTING NE FROM S OF NEW ENG WILL AFFECT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ACK PER HRRR SOLUTION.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTS OVER THE COLD WATERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTS N
ACROSS SNE. THE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND INCREASE. EXPECT
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SE
COASTAL NEW ENG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER DEVELOP
ACROSS NW ZONES.
925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH FULL SUNSHINE. BUT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP IT COOLER SO
EXPECT MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE
S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME
SKY COVER MAY LINGER FOR PART OF TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE THE AIRMASS
WILL SHOW A DRYING TREND. MIXING ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 850 MB.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 25 KNOTS...SO WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
* QUICK MOVING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY/MONDAY
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
OVERALL HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BELIEVE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
FOR THE WEEKEND ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LEADING UP TO
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
OVERALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
ON THURSDAY LASTING TO SUNDAY. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT DEF NOT A
WASHOUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP LATE SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AROUND TUESDAY. OVERALL TREND IN THE
FORECAST WAS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EC ENSEMBLES WHICH IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND MORE
AMPLIFIED DETERMINISTIC EC.
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE CHILLY AS TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. HOWEVER RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A WARM-UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER ALONG THE COASTLINE AS SEA-BREEZES SET-UP. WINDS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH. WHILE THIS OCCURS...RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S WHICH COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE FIRE
HEADLINES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY....
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY SPOUTING OFF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER A QUICK MOVING
OPEN WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN THE DEVELOP OF A CLOSED LOW
AT 850MB ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SPOUTING OFF MORE SHOWERS. SHOWALTERS
WILL DROP BELOW 0 OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HELD OFF ON
INSERTING THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF QPF
AMOUNT WITH THE GFS SHOWING OVER AN INCH WITH THE EC CLOSER TO A
HALF OF AN INCH. TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEAR
0.75 INCHES. UNCERTAIN ON HOW THIS MAY IMPACT THE ALREADY SWOLLEN
RIVERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM FLOODING. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN LOW TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LONG ISLAND ON SUNDAY MORNING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ESP ACROSS THE WEST BUT LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ENFORCING WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH BOTH DAYS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
PERHAPS THE 70S BY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL WARM UP TO
12C AND WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE KEPT PREV FORECASTERS LOW 70S
INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ALL OF THIS IS DUE TO AN 850MB DIGGING TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND....
LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THEN TEMPS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS SHOWS THAT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AT PLAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
POSSIBLE THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT. IF TEMPERATURES DROP AS LOW AS
THE EC SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THE RETURN TO A
WINTRY MIX NORTH OF ROUTE 2. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIFR IN DENSE FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING...BUT AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY NEAR THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...IFR
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS DEVELOPING.
TONIGHT...
VFR...EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR/IFR OUTER CAPE/ACK IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...
VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA. LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS 23-33 KNOTS WITH A GUST TO 36 KNOTS
AT BUZZARDS BAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATION MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
BUZZARDS GUST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE ARE
35-40 KNOTS NEAR BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...AND 50-60 KNOTS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. MUCH OF THIS WILL STAY ALOFT...BUT SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS...ESTIMATE CONTINUES
TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS...SO
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS TODAY.
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER A 5-8 FOOT SWELL WILL LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND THE
RI WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. HEADLINES SHOULD
DROP ON THE MASSACHUSETTS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WHILE SEAS
CONTINUE TO FEATURE 5-8 FOOT SWELL ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. EXPECT
TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE AREAS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX SUCH THAT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE
SW. BUT THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THU EVENING WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MA OUTER WATERS. SCA WILL
BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH SEAS INCREASING OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
AND EAST OF CAPE COD. WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO 20-30 KT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE THE WESTERLY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS THE STRONGEST LIFT SHIFTS NORTH. A COLD FRONT COULD
THEN BRING SHOWERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIX-HOUR RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 0.25 INCH...SO MOST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
BELOW 1 INCH. THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT EVEN THIS RISK IS DIMINISHING. RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS 2 INCHES.
CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD FORECAST STATEMENTS OR PLEASE GO TO THE
WEB PAGE HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX/PHP?WFO=BOX...THIS
WILL DISPLAY STATUS OF OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE MAP WITH MAX FORECAST
CREST CLICK ON THE RIVER FORECASTS TAB.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
WHERE A DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD SET UP LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL LOWER
THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE SEAS IN THE
GULF WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS EVENING TO
6 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL LET THE SCA DROP AT 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PUT UP A SCEC. FOR THE GULF
WATERS...THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SEAS.
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL ALSO BE UNDER A SCEC CONDITIONS
FOR THE WINDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. FOLLOWED HRRR WIND DEPICTION WITH
NW WINDS BECOMING NE SPREADING DOWN THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING NE THU WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT, EXCEPT A GULF SEA BREEZE (NW
AT KAPF) BY LATE AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ONLY TRICKY PART
ABOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS THE WIND...WHICH HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATED BY ALL GUIDANCE SINCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM THE EAST...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA.
THEREFORE...A STRONGER-THAN-FORECASTED PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE
THE CAUSE OF THESE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BOTH
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
HENCE...WIND WILL PROBABLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A
DAY OR TWO...AND THEN A STEADY INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA MOVES NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING HUMID AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. AN
INTERESTING DETAIL TO NOTE...LATEST MAV GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS TREND WAS DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST TIME...THEREFORE WILL GIVE
GUIDANCE ONE MORE CHANCE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
12 KNOTS AROUND 14-15Z ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 59 79 68 80 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 79 71 80 / 0 10 10 10
MIAMI 62 80 69 81 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 56 83 62 86 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
730 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. FOLLOWED HRRR WIND DEPICTION WITH
NW WINDS BECOMING NE SPREADING DOWN THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING NE THU WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT, EXCEPT A GULF SEA BREEZE (NW
AT KAPF) BY LATE AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ONLY TRICKY PART
ABOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS THE WIND...WHICH HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATED BY ALL GUIDANCE SINCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM THE EAST...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA.
THEREFORE...A STRONGER-THAN-FORECASTED PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE
THE CAUSE OF THESE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BOTH
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
HENCE...WIND WILL PROBABLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A
DAY OR TWO...AND THEN A STEADY INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA MOVES NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING HUMID AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. AN
INTERESTING DETAIL TO NOTE...LATEST MAV GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS TREND WAS DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST TIME...THEREFORE WILL GIVE
GUIDANCE ONE MORE CHANCE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
12 KNOTS AROUND 14-15Z ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 79 68 80 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 79 71 80 / 0 10 10 10
MIAMI 64 80 69 81 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 57 83 62 86 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
/ISSUED 310 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE ARE TIMING
AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN AGREEMENT KEEPING A SLOWER SYSTEM. THIS WOULD
BRING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THESE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
17
FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY ACROSS THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN BELOW
25 PERCENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW BUT APPEARS TO BE
AROUND 3 HOURS IN DURATION. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF THIS
DURATION EXPANDS AT ALL.
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE FEW 5-7KFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
OTHERWISE SKC. NNW TO NW WINDS 7-12KT TO START THE PERIOD
DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CALM OR AT LEAST NEAR
CALM OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS. SPEEDS PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5-7KT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING TO SW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 42 75 48 76 / 0 0 5 5
ATLANTA 47 73 52 75 / 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 39 70 46 73 / 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 39 73 46 76 / 0 0 5 5
COLUMBUS 46 75 49 78 / 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 45 71 51 75 / 0 0 5 5
MACON 39 76 45 78 / 0 0 5 5
ROME 41 73 46 77 / 0 0 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 36 74 42 76 / 0 0 5 5
VIDALIA 47 76 51 80 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS FROM AROUND MID-MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SPREADS EAST AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL CROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS
SUPPORT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
TODAY. KEPT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
READING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST IN SPITE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE
...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWER MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS PUSHING FROM
THE PIEDMONT REGION INTO THE MIDLANDS AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LAMP GUIDANCE AND HRRR LEANING
TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL HANDLE WITH A
MENTION OF -SHRA IN MAIN GROUP OR TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BUT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH IN THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AT 500MB AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE WEDGE
ERODES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS BY 12Z AND HAVE LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION MAY HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT.
WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWER MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS PUSHING FROM
THE PIEDMONT REGION INTO THE MIDLANDS AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LAMP GUIDANCE AND HRRR LEANING
TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL HANDLE WITH A
MENTION OF -SHRA IN MAIN GROUP OR TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BUT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1106 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND IT WILL PUSH INLAND
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE WILL FURTHER STEEPEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS LAKE BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AREAS FROM THE LAKEFRONT TO 5 TO 10
MILES INLAND LIKELY REMAINING DRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
STABILIZING MARINE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LAKE BREEZE PLOWS
INLAND...AND STABILIZATION OCCURRING FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...ITS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL CAPE WILL REACH HIGH ENOUGH
ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL TO ENABLE LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. SOME OF
THE HI-RES NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY BULLISH ON SHOWER COVERAGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR HIGHER
COVERAGE MENTION THAN CURRENTLY FEATURED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS AND ALSO
BUMPED UP INLAND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO 925 MB CLIMO
FOR EARLY APRIL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD APPROACH
60 DEGREES. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
301 AM CDT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ARE SOME OF THE CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A
LARGE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
IS A VORT MAX THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. IN ADDITION...A NARROW SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA/MISSOURI
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN B.C COAST AHEAD OF IT. THIS ENERGY WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WHICH WILL BRING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
AS THE UPPER WAVES APPROACH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF LAGER SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME COOLING
ALOFT...AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSED LIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL CROSS LATER TODAY. THE BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
INDIANA IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE FADING OR EXITING TO THE
EAST. OTHERWISE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE NEXT FOCUSED
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKER VORT
MAXIMA THAT PASS AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE
THE BEST TIME LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE
FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH
TIMING/LAPSE RATES/LAKE BREEZE COME TOGETHER. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE CHICAGO METRO SOUTH TO THE KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GIBSON CITY
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
BUT SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEST...BEFORE DIURNAL CU
INCREASES...TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP A BIT SO THE FORECAST COULD BE A
LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT OVERALL EXPECT MID 50S WEST AND AROUND
50 EAST...WITH LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE AREAS WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE LAKE MAY SEE AN EARLY
HIGH THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO AFFECTING HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER JUST BEYOND SUNSET IN THE EAST BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND COOLING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO THROUGH A TRANSITION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
DE-AMPLIFIES THANKS TO THE TROUGH OFF THE B.C. COAST MOVING INLAND
AND FLATTENING IT. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS H85
TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND +8C BY EVENING AND +12 TO +14C BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S
EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THURSDAY BECOME A BIT
TOUGHER THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
LATEST TRENDS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLER SOONER...AROUND
MIDDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE WARMING POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SUGGESTED TO BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. TIMING STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS COULD
STILL SEE 70 IF CLOUDS CAN BE THIN ENOUGH AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH IT BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH
IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO UPPER FORCING.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
FLOW THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
STRONG. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN
TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA SO THE FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
BREEZE SO LAKESHORE AREAS MAY BE HELD TO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SATURDAY DRIVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE IN TEMPS
WHICH LOOK TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE IN
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL DICTATE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM IS
IN CROSSING THE AREA. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS MORE
LIKELY FROM AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
LONGER WITH THE SPEED OF DEPARTURE BEING MUCH LESS CERTAIN. A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR MUCH COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES WHICH MAY MEAN
SOME MIXED PRECIP/SNOW AS PRECIP ENDS.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS ARND 020-040 TO 10KT...WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME 040 AND
SPEEDS THRU THIS EVE TO 8KT.
* LAKE BREEZE PUSHING THRU WITH SOME BUILDING CLOUDS...TEMPO CIGS
ARND 3KFT AGL.
* WINDS RELAXING TO NW OVERNIGHT ARND 4-6KT...MAY BRIEFLY GO VRB
DIR AND POTENTIALLY CALM FOR A COUPLE HRS BEFORE DAYBREAK WED.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MID-MORNING WED WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 16-19KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND WAS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON THE BREEZE STRETCHED FROM NEAR ORD SOUTHEAST TO
MDW. THIS BREEZE WILL STEADILY PUSH INLAND AND BRING NE WINDS TO
ORD/MDW. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR LIFT
AND BUILD THE CLOUDS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
UNSTABLE ARND 4000-9000FT AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF ORD/MDW. IT APPEARS THAT ALL OF THE
CUMULUS/PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD ONLY LINGER THRU 22-23Z...THEN BY 01Z CLOUDS WILL BE
CLEARING BACK OUT WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK REMAINING. A FEW
GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF FEW. THIS MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO BE PULLED THOUGH.
WINDS WILL BE RELAXING BACK TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS ARND 5-8KT. WITH A VERY LIGHT GRADIENT SETTING UP
OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT A PERIOD OF TIME MAY SEE
WINDS BECOME VRB TO CALM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. THE GRADIENT
THEN PICKS UP JUST AFT DAYBREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
ARND 10KT AND SHUD START TO SEE GUSTS NEARING 16-19KT BY MIDDAY
WED.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF ORD...HIGH
CONFIDECE IN PRECIP WEST OF MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST THRU THIS EVE.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. BRIEF MVFR PSBL.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY. MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR PSBL EARLY.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
223 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER LAKE ERIE AND IT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ITS COLD
FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY...AND STILL THINKING IT WILL BE TOO
STABLE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT AND BECOME WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE
THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING RIGHT NOW. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE
THAT WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GALES...CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW.
HEADLINES...HIGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Mostly sunny skies currently prevail across central Illinois:
however, with steep low-level lapse rates noted on 12z KILX and
KDVN upper air soundings, think diurnal clouds will quickly
develop later this morning into the afternoon hours. Region
remains under the influence of a high-amplitude trough that has
dug all the way to the Gulf Coast. Several weaker short-waves are
noted within the flow, including one feature currently over
southwest Iowa into eastern Kansas. This particular wave will drop
southeastward and remain largely to the W/SW of Illinois today.
Meanwhile, another subtle wave will drop southeastward out of
Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. This feature will provide enough
lift to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms across the area
this afternoon. Latest HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on
the current situation, and depicts isolated to scattered
convection developing by around 17/18z. Much of the convection
will be focused across the E/NE KILX CWA in association with the
advancing Wisconsin wave. Have updated the forecast to remove POPs
and reduce sky cover this morning, then have gone with partly
sunny conditions with isolated to scattered showers/thunder this
afternoon. Temp forecast looks to be on track, so made no
adjustments to afternoon highs in the middle to upper 50s. Zone
update has already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Diurnal CU field is currently developing across central Illinois
and will become most prevalent along and east of I-57 this
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest low VFR ceilings of 3500 to
4000ft at KCMI, with lesser coverage/higher bases further west at
the remaining terminals. Will include VCSH at KCMI as well, as a
few showers are beginning to develop upstream over northeast
Illinois. Clouds/widely scattered showers will quickly dissipate
shortly after sunset, followed by clear skies overnight into
Wednesday morning. Winds will initially be gusty from the
northwest this afternoon, then will subside to less than 10kt by
this evening. As high pressure slides across the area, winds will
become W/SW by Wednesday morning.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Low pressure exiting to the east as more northwesterly flow moves
in over the Midwest this morning. Some remnant clouds and weak
echoes over the forecast area on radar imagery this morning. Weak
wave in the large scale trof bringing in another chance of precip.
Some cold air aloft will help to add to some instability this
afternoon and cannot rule out some isolated thunder chances. This
is the first issue for the forecast. Warming through the week and
another weak boundary and system at the end of the weekend. Not
too many changes in the latter two systems. Models in good
agreement through Friday...with some divergence in handling the
Saturday night/Sunday storm.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Another chance for rain as a secondary wave moves into the larger
scale trof aloft...with highs in the 50s. This afternoon will
actually see some colder temps aloft and rather steep lapse rates
in the low levels. Though the instability is weak...narrow and
skinny CAPE in the forecast soundings...it is pretty deep.
Cannot rule out some thunder and small hail with a relatively low
freezing level. Will see the showers coming to an end this
evening. Tomorrow starts a general warming trend with a southerly
component working into the winds. Highs in the 60s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Forecast continues the warming trend resulting in the warmest day
of the forecast on Thursday with highs approaching 70/the lower
70s. A system passing across the southern tier of Canada drags a
weak frontal boundary across the Great Lakes and the Midwest...but
convergence along the boundary is weak at best. Not to mention
that the flow across the country is predominantly SW/NE
oriented...effectively cutting off the access to deeper Gulf
moisture ahead of the boundary. At this point, pops for Thursday
night remain on the low side through Friday night. Far more
dynamic system expected into the weekend with pops stretching from
Sat night through Sunday for now as the quicker GFS/slower ECMWF
having major timing differences.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
301 AM CDT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ARE SOME OF THE CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A
LARGE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
IS A VORT MAX THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. IN ADDITION...A NARROW SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA/MISSOURI
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN B.C COAST AHEAD OF IT. THIS ENERGY WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WHICH WILL BRING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
AS THE UPPER WAVES APPROACH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF LAGER SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME COOLING
ALOFT...AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSED LIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL CROSS LATER TODAY. THE BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
INDIANA IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE FADING OR EXITING TO THE
EAST. OTHERWISE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE NEXT FOCUSED
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKER VORT
MAXIMA THAT PASS AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE
THE BEST TIME LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE
FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH
TIMING/LAPSE RATES/LAKE BREEZE COME TOGETHER. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE CHICAGO METRO SOUTH TO THE KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GIBSON CITY
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
BUT SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEST...BEFORE DIURNAL CU
INCREASES...TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP A BIT SO THE FORECAST COULD BE A
LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT OVERALL EXPECT MID 50S WEST AND AROUND
50 EAST...WITH LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE AREAS WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE LAKE MAY SEE AN EARLY
HIGH THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO AFFECTING HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER JUST BEYOND SUNSET IN THE EAST BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND COOLING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO THROUGH A TRANSITION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
DE-AMPLIFIES THANKS TO THE TROUGH OFF THE B.C. COAST MOVING INLAND
AND FLATTENING IT. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS H85
TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND +8C BY EVENING AND +12 TO +14C BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S
EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THURSDAY BECOME A BIT
TOUGHER THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
LATEST TRENDS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLER SOONER...AROUND
MIDDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE WARMING POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SUGGESTED TO BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. TIMING STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS COULD
STILL SEE 70 IF CLOUDS CAN BE THIN ENOUGH AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH IT BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH
IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO UPPER FORCING.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
FLOW THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
STRONG. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN
TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA SO THE FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
BREEZE SO LAKESHORE AREAS MAY BE HELD TO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SATURDAY DRIVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE IN TEMPS
WHICH LOOK TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE IN
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL DICTATE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM IS
IN CROSSING THE AREA. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS MORE
LIKELY FROM AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
LONGER WITH THE SPEED OF DEPARTURE BEING MUCH LESS CERTAIN. A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR MUCH COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES WHICH MAY MEAN
SOME MIXED PRECIP/SNOW AS PRECIP ENDS.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS ARND 10 KT BECOME NE 8-10 KT THIS AFTN.
* SCT -SHRA EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
* LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS PSBL THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE -SHRA.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
SPRINKLES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND
STEADILY DISSIPATING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND
WILL EVENTUALLY FLIP TO NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW WITH A LAKE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY HELP
TO REDEVELOP SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFT. IN ADDITION SOME
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE
BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD INITIATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS
A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE TAF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UPDATED 12Z...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN TIGHTENING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH NW WINDS AT 6-9 KT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE A LAKE BREEZE
FORMS EARLY THIS AFTN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL
BE A SHARP BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF ORD WHERE WINDS WILL BE NE ARND
10 KT EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND NNW WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. COULD SEE LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS WITH THE -SHRA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NW ARND 5 KT. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN
WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...AND WINDS WILL BE SW ARND 10 KT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA THIS AFTN...AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS WILL BE TIED TO -SHRA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW TO NE THIS
AFTN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. BRIEF MVFR PSBL.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY. MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR PSBL EARLY.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
223 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER LAKE ERIE AND IT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ITS COLD
FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY...AND STILL THINKING IT WILL BE TOO
STABLE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT AND BECOME WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE
THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING RIGHT NOW. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE
THAT WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GALES...CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW.
HEADLINES...HIGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Mostly sunny skies currently prevail across central Illinois:
however, with steep low-level lapse rates noted on 12z KILX and
KDVN upper air soundings, think diurnal clouds will quickly
develop later this morning into the afternoon hours. Region
remains under the influence of a high-amplitude trough that has
dug all the way to the Gulf Coast. Several weaker short-waves are
noted within the flow, including one feature currently over
southwest Iowa into eastern Kansas. This particular wave will drop
southeastward and remain largely to the W/SW of Illinois today.
Meanwhile, another subtle wave will drop southeastward out of
Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. This feature will provide enough
lift to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms across the area
this afternoon. Latest HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on
the current situation, and depicts isolated to scattered
convection developing by around 17/18z. Much of the convection
will be focused across the E/NE KILX CWA in association with the
advancing Wisconsin wave. Have updated the forecast to remove POPs
and reduce sky cover this morning, then have gone with partly
sunny conditions with isolated to scattered showers/thunder this
afternoon. Temp forecast looks to be on track, so made no
adjustments to afternoon highs in the middle to upper 50s. Zone
update has already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 648 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
A weak surface trough extending along I-70 and dropping southeast
will continue out of IL this morning. Aloft, a trailing shortwave
will rotate southeast across IL this afternoon triggering
scattered showers. Instability parameters show support for some
isolated thunderstorms, mainly due to steep lapse rates in the low
to mid levels. The better chances will be across eastern IL, so a
VCSH was only included this afternoon in the TAFs for the
eastern terminals of BMI/DEC/CMI. Diurnal stabilization of the
lower troposphere will help to diminish coverage of showers and
any storms by sunset. Dry and clear conditions should prevail
overnight.
Lifted condensation levels look to remain in the VFR category,
with ceilings as low as 3.5K feet this afternoon but not too much
lower than that. Winds will increase from the NW this morning,
with gusts as high as 20kt from late morning through mid
afternoon. Wind direction will remain NW tonight as speeds dip
below 10kt.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Low pressure exiting to the east as more northwesterly flow moves
in over the Midwest this morning. Some remnant clouds and weak
echoes over the forecast area on radar imagery this morning. Weak
wave in the large scale trof bringing in another chance of precip.
Some cold air aloft will help to add to some instability this
afternoon and cannot rule out some isolated thunder chances. This
is the first issue for the forecast. Warming through the week and
another weak boundary and system at the end of the weekend. Not
too many changes in the latter two systems. Models in good
agreement through Friday...with some divergence in handling the
Saturday night/Sunday storm.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Another chance for rain as a secondary wave moves into the larger
scale trof aloft...with highs in the 50s. This afternoon will
actually see some colder temps aloft and rather steep lapse rates
in the low levels. Though the instability is weak...narrow and
skinny CAPE in the forecast soundings...it is pretty deep.
Cannot rule out some thunder and small hail with a relatively low
freezing level. Will see the showers coming to an end this
evening. Tomorrow starts a general warming trend with a southerly
component working into the winds. Highs in the 60s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Forecast continues the warming trend resulting in the warmest day
of the forecast on Thursday with highs approaching 70/the lower
70s. A system passing across the southern tier of Canada drags a
weak frontal boundary across the Great Lakes and the Midwest...but
convergence along the boundary is weak at best. Not to mention
that the flow across the country is predominantly SW/NE
oriented...effectively cutting off the access to deeper Gulf
moisture ahead of the boundary. At this point, pops for Thursday
night remain on the low side through Friday night. Far more
dynamic system expected into the weekend with pops stretching from
Sat night through Sunday for now as the quicker GFS/slower ECMWF
having major timing differences.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1225 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OHIO TONIGHT AND
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK ON TUESDAY. RAIN WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID
50S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
READINGS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
ZONES/GRIDS UPDATED TO SLOW DEPARTURE OF RAIN SHIELD IN EASTERN
AREAS. WHILE OVERALL INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST WITH SEVERAL
RUNS OF HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS. FOLLOWING HRRR GIVES A DEPARTURE
TIME IN FAR EASTERN AREAS AROUND OR AFTER 8Z...WITH GRIDS NOW
POINTED IN THIS DIRECTION. WILL BE MONITORING A BROKEN AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. HRRR HANDLED THESE
FAIRLY WELL WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST. WILL
MAINTAIN 14 POPS WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN THR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN BURGEONING MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION OF A MATURING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY CHANGE
TO THE FCST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT...WITH OUR
EXTREME NORTHWEST (BENTON HARBOR/MICHIGAN CITY) POTENTIALLY
REMAINING DRY OR ONLY RECEIVING A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN GIVEN
THIS DRY AIR AND MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION
NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO/LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN ZONES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.40" AND
0.80"...WITH A NARROW BAND UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR PIVOT POINT
(MOST LIKELY THE I-69 CORRIDOR). THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RENEWED
RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS AND WILL HELP PROLONG MINOR FLOODING ON
AREA RIVERS. MAINLY DRY AND COOL TOMORROW IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THERMAL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DEEP MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB ACCORDING TO BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. BY LATER
IN THE DAY...WINDS WILL WANE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOST BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AND WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE NO PLANNED CHANGES TO
CURRENT CHANCE POPS. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS
PACKAGE DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING FORCING AND LACK OF BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY DESPITE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7 TO 7.5 RANGE.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR ITS
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF... A STRONGLY FORCED FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND SLOW PROGRESSION
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER 1"+ RAINFALL EVENT.
PREFER THE ECMWF DEEPER...SLOWER...MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE
POSSIBILITY OF 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE NOT JUMPING TOTALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS
SOLUTION...DID NUDGE HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOWARDS ECMWF WITH UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT REGARDING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY EAST OF KFWA MOST OF THE
EVENING BUT HAVE FINALLY EDGED IN FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SHORT VISIT
AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND DEEPER MSTR GOES WITH IT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KFWA
EVENTAULLY FOLLOWING SUIT LATER TONIGHT. NO SIG WEATHER TO WORRY
ABOUT AFTER 12Z TUES AS RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO
BRING DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
555 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO DECENT SFC BASED HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE OCCASIONAL
STRIKES WE CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO
THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO
INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...VERY EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
AREAS WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...IN PULASKI/WAYNE AND SHOULD DIE
OFF WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A MORE ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLIFICATION
WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN LARGER DIFFERENCES CROP
UP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A
BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SYSTEM...SINCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED THIS WAY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL REIGN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE LATEST
BLEND AND THE INHERITED POPS...WITH THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES
NORTH...AND LESS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE NOTED SLOWER TREND...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A MORE ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLIFICATION
WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN LARGER DIFFERENCES CROP
UP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A
BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SYSTEM...SINCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED THIS WAY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL REIGN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE LATEST
BLEND AND THE INHERITED POPS...WITH THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES
NORTH...AND LESS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE NOTED SLOWER TREND...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING
CLOUD COVER HAS TURNED INTO A SCATTERED DECK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE
AREA. UPSTREAM...MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS INDIANA...SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. BASED ON THE TIMING AND LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE...STILL LOOKS LIKE A LATE ARRIVAL TIME FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH ANY SHOWERS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 7 PM THIS EVENING.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT STERLING...TO PIKEVILLE. AS THE WAVE
EXITS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
AS FOR THUNDER...TIMING IS NOT GREAT AS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY STARTING TO
DECREASE BY THIS TIME. ON TOP OF THIS...SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE
LIMITING THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. OVERALL RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW
GUIDANCE BEFORE INCREASING OR DECREASING POPS. WITH THE BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER TOE AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED LATEST HOURLY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY. ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...IT SHOULD BE RAINING NOW SO DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS THE FIRST
OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMES SOME COLD AIR ALOFT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT
ARE POSSIBLE...THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
ARE THE TYPE OF STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
GRAUPEL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...AS
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND A FLATTENING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS KY. A
SHALLOW TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR NORTH...WITH A
CLOSED LOW PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH NEARER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH JAMES BAY AND THEN NEWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A ELONGATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THIS LOW
TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER TX. WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
NORTHERN CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRST MOVING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH KY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BECOMING ORIENTED
FROM W TO E DUE TO THE NORTHERN LOW PROGRESSING MORE QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE LOWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
THE LINE...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY. LATEST
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION...WITH GOOD FRONTAL LIFT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING...AND DECENT SHEER.
OBVIOUSLY...BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
/FRIDAY/...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS ANY LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO
BREAK AND MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES ARE REACHED. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL...BUT EXPECT FRONTAL LIFT...LLVL WIND SHEAR...AND WARM
BUOYANT PARCELS TO BE ABLE TO LIFT AND CREATE SOME TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE W TO E ORIENTED FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE S OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION COMING
TO AN END AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO EASTERN KY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BRIEF RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AS WELL.
HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AS FAR
EAST AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT
THAT LONG RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...SO WILL RELY
ON THE ALLBLEND FOR ANY SURFACE PRECIP FEATURES AS FAR AS TIMING AND
EXTENT/LOCATION.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT ENE TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THIS SURFACE LOW...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
ENOUGH FRONTAL LIFT THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIP IS UNDERWAY MONDAY...LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS40 SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE SE OF KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT...EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
ACROSS KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR
QUICKLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z TUESDAY JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EASTERN KY. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...AS LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WARMING LAYER/INVERSION...AND WINDS UNSUPPORTIVE OF BEING ABLE
TO LIFT PARCELS.
OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...THE TIMING OF SUCH
FEATURES...AS WELL AS THE RESULTING POPS AND QPF...WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED AND ADJUSTED AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THE ONSET. HOWEVER...STILL
FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AGREEMENT SO FAR BETWEEN THE
GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF...AND FOR THE NAM IN THE MID TERM AS WELL.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LLVL WINDS TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS MOST DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED OVER
KY AND COOLER AIR IS ALLOWED TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...AS WELL AS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
947 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT STERLING...TO PIKEVILLE. AS THE WAVE
EXITS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
AS FOR THUNDER...TIMING IS NOT GREAT AS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY STARTING TO
DECREASE BY THIS TIME. ON TOP OF THIS...SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE
LIMITING THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. OVERALL RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW
GUIDANCE BEFORE INCREASING OR DECREASING POPS. WITH THE BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER TOE AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED LATEST HOURLY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY. ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...IT SHOULD BE RAINING NOW SO DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS THE FIRST
OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMES SOME COLD AIR ALOFT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT
ARE POSSIBLE...THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
ARE THE TYPE OF STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
GRAUPEL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...AS
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND A FLATTENING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS KY. A
SHALLOW TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR NORTH...WITH A
CLOSED LOW PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH NEARER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH JAMES BAY AND THEN NEWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A ELONGATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THIS LOW
TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER TX. WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
NORTHERN CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRST MOVING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH KY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BECOMING ORIENTED
FROM W TO E DUE TO THE NORTHERN LOW PROGRESSING MORE QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE LOWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
THE LINE...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY. LATEST
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION...WITH GOOD FRONTAL LIFT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING...AND DECENT SHEER.
OBVIOUSLY...BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
/FRIDAY/...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS ANY LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO
BREAK AND MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES ARE REACHED. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL...BUT EXPECT FRONTAL LIFT...LLVL WIND SHEAR...AND WARM
BUOYANT PARCELS TO BE ABLE TO LIFT AND CREATE SOME TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE W TO E ORIENTED FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE S OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION COMING
TO AN END AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO EASTERN KY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BRIEF RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AS WELL.
HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AS FAR
EAST AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT
THAT LONG RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...SO WILL RELY
ON THE ALLBLEND FOR ANY SURFACE PRECIP FEATURES AS FAR AS TIMING AND
EXTENT/LOCATION.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT ENE TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THIS SURFACE LOW...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
ENOUGH FRONTAL LIFT THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIP IS UNDERWAY MONDAY...LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS40 SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE SE OF KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT...EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
ACROSS KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR
QUICKLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z TUESDAY JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EASTERN KY. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...AS LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WARMING LAYER/INVERSION...AND WINDS UNSUPPORTIVE OF BEING ABLE
TO LIFT PARCELS.
OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...THE TIMING OF SUCH
FEATURES...AS WELL AS THE RESULTING POPS AND QPF...WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED AND ADJUSTED AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THE ONSET. HOWEVER...STILL
FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AGREEMENT SO FAR BETWEEN THE
GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF...AND FOR THE NAM IN THE MID TERM AS WELL.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LLVL WINDS TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS MOST DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED OVER
KY AND COOLER AIR IS ALLOWED TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...AS WELL AS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE RISEN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND HAVE FORECAST THEM TO RISE AT
JKL AND SJS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. COLD AIR STRATO CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO DROP AGAIN AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IT MAY BE ABLE TO CREATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERTICAL PROFILE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL. THIS HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS OR
JUST WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
531 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
530PM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LEADING EDGE OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY POP FORECAST AND RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL. FOG HAS
MOVED IN TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER... AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS FOG WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND IT WILL BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS OUR
WINDS SHIFT ACROSS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL GIVE US SOME
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS GO
LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY MOVE THRU THE AREA. SKIES CLEAR ON
FRIDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NE THRU NEW ENGLAND AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THAT WOULD BE ENDING BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR
BEFORE A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BY MID SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU MONDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR TIMING OF PCPN. INCREASED MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
TO IFR AS CLOUDS WILL LIFT WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW AND
THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE SCA WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IN AN INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND GUSTS
UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUNCOOK RIVER AT NORTH CHICHESTER REMAINS IN A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY... HOWEVER ANY FLOODING WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KISTNER
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
223 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW STILL SOUTHWEST AS CAN BE SEEN ON VWP AND SOME
PROFILERS THE FRONT WILL MOVE EVEN SLOWER AS IT PUSHES TO THE
COAST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HRRR AND RUC DEPICTS THESE ECHOES WELL ON ITS
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AND THIS SHOWS THE ECHOES VERY SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHEAST. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP THEM A LITTLE HIGHER
LONGER ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE AND HIGHS MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROF SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BUT YET ANTHR IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPRCHS FROM THE WEST AFTR MIDNITE. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
MSTR TO GO INTO CLOUD COVERAGE...SO KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. ANY
PCPN THAT DOES DVLP SHOULD STAY IN NC. LOWS IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WED. BEFORE ANY
DRYING OCCURRS...LAST OF THE S/W`S PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NC DURING
THE AFTRN. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW MINIMAL AMTS OF MSTR ACROSS SRN CNTYS.
GIVEN THIS MSTR MOVES THRU DRNG PEAK HEATING HRS...ADDED ISLTD SHWRS
TO SRN CNTYS (MAINLY S OF RT 58). HIGHS IN THE 60S.
ERN TROF FINALLY LIFTS OUT ALLOWING RIDGING TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA WED NITE AND THURS. TSCTNS VOID OF ANY SGNFCNT MSTR SO EXPECT A
M CLR TO PT CLDY PRD. WEAK CAA DMNSHS SETTING UP DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WED NITE. LOWS M-U30S NRN/WRN CNTYS TO U30S-L40S SRN AREAS.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY. HIGHS U60S-L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HEADLINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SE CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CTRL APPALACHIANS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CENTER OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC FRI...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE GULF
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AND WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN
MOISTURE REGARDLESS OF SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY ON FRI. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ERN CONUS FRI AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
MIDWEST. MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN VA/MD...
WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THAT REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE
MD ERN SHORE FRI-FRI NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON PUSHING THE WEAK
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SAT. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...THINKING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION FRI NIGHT-THURS
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AS WELL AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SAT. SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. MEANWHILE...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THE FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE EWD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT-MON
MORNING. MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
12+ HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MON TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NLY WINDS. SLY
WINDS FRI AND SUN-MON WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG
THE COASTAL ERN SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT TO THE CST EARLY THIS AFTN...WILL CONT TO THE E THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. LINGERING MVFR CIGS MNLY ACRS CSTL SE VA/NE
NC ALG W/ ISOLD SHRAS (ABT TO EXIT THE CST)...OTRW...BKN-OVC VFR
CIGS MNLY FM 5-25KFT. GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT WANE THIS
EVE...BECOMING NNW TNGT. OCNL GUSTY NNE WNDS (TO 20 KT) WED...ESP
AT THE CST. TROUGH ALOFT CROSSING THE RGN TNGT THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTN W/ CONTD OCNL BKN VFR CIGS...PTNTLLY AN ISOLD SHRA AS WELL.
AFT THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION W/ VFR AND DRY THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING W-NW BY AFTN AND N-NW TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN AOA SCA THRESHOLDS THRU NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF CAA AND STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS (HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW) WILL PRODUCE SUB-SCA
WINDS (AOB 15 KT) OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 5
FT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY
DROP BELOW 5 FT AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY DUE TO SW FLOW REGIME AND MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP SCA`S QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND ADJUST HEADLINES AS NECESSARY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS-THURS RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING...LIKELY STALLING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONTG FLOOD WARNING FOR LAWRENCEVILLE THROUGH LATE TNGT (FOR MINOR
FLOODING). OTRW...RECENT RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS CAUSED AREA
RIVERS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY BTWN 1/2 TO 3/4
BANKFULL...GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MAIN STEM RIVERS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1003 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW STILL SOUTHWEST AS CAN BE SEEN ON VWP AND SOME
PROFILERS THE FRONT WILL MOVE EVEN SLOWER AS IT PUSHES TO THE
COAST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HRRR AND RUC DEPICTS THESE ECHOES WELL ON ITS
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AND THIS SHOWS THE ECHOES VERY SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHEAST. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP THEM A LITTLE HIGHER
LONGER ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE AND HIGHS MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROF SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BUT YET ANTHR IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPRCHS FROM THE WEST AFTR MIDNITE. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
MSTR TO GO INTO CLOUD COVERAGE...SO KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. ANY
PCPN THAT DOES DVLP SHOULD STAY IN NC. LOWS IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WED. BEFORE ANY
DRYING OCCURRS...LAST OF THE S/W`S PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NC DURING
THE AFTRN. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW MINIMAL AMTS OF MSTR ACROSS SRN CNTYS.
GIVEN THIS MSTR MOVES THRU DRNG PEAK HEATING HRS...ADDED ISLTD SHWRS
TO SRN CNTYS (MAINLY S OF RT 58). HIGHS IN THE 60S.
ERN TROF FINALLY LIFTS OUT ALLOWING RIDGING TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA WED NITE AND THURS. TSCTNS VOID OF ANY SGNFCNT MSTR SO EXPECT A
M CLR TO PT CLDY PRD. WEAK CAA DMNSHS SETTING UP DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WED NITE. LOWS M-U30S NRN/WRN CNTYS TO U30S-L40S SRN AREAS.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY. HIGHS U60S-L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HEADLINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SE CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CTRL APPALACHIANS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CENTER OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC FRI...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE GULF
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AND WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN
MOISTURE REGARDLESS OF SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY ON FRI. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ERN CONUS FRI AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
MIDWEST. MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN VA/MD...
WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THAT REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE
MD ERN SHORE FRI-FRI NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON PUSHING THE WEAK
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SAT. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...THINKING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION FRI NIGHT-THURS
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AS WELL AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SAT. SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. MEANWHILE...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THE FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE EWD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT-MON
MORNING. MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
12+ HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MON TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NLY WINDS. SLY
WINDS FRI AND SUN-MON WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG
THE COASTAL ERN SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AS LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT. A LITTLE -RA WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH 15Z. WEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY VFR AND
DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING W-NW BY AFTN AND N-NW TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN AOA SCA THRESHOLDS THRU NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF CAA AND STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS (HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW) WILL PRODUCE SUB-SCA
WINDS (AOB 15 KT) OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 5
FT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY
DROP BELOW 5 FT AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY DUE TO SW FLOW REGIME AND MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP SCA`S QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND ADJUST HEADLINES AS NECESSARY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS-THURS RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING...LIKELY STALLING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS CAUSED AREA RIVERS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY BTWN 1/2 TO 3/4 BANKFULL...GREATEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAIN STEM RIVERS. THE FRANKLIN STAGE ON THE BLACKWATER
HAS REACHED CAUTION STAGE. WHILE LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN
RIVER WILL GO TO MINOR FLOODING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST 19Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TIED WITH MAIN SFC LOW MOVING
EAST INTO MANITOBA WHILE THERE WAS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NW
NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER MOVING RAPIDLY EAST IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROPELLING SYSTEMS COLD FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. WAA MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 8H WARM FRONT
HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITING MIXING AND KEPT TEMPS ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST SO HAVE HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RETURNS ALONG THIS BAND
OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN REPORTED HITTING THE GROUND AS CLOUD
CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 6KFT AND VERY DRY AIR IN LOW-LVLS OF
ATMOSPHERE AS DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING OVER WRN UPR MI AND EAST WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS
WELL NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT STAY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN. CONCERN IS WE COULD HAVE BROKEN COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO
HANG ONTO A 2-3HR PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FCST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE TO 7C ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CAPE IS
PRETTY MINIMAL (100 J/KG OR LESS). THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO IN THE
MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT 12Z...ONLY INCLUDED
CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.
INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A MILD START TO THE
DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS MAY APPROACH NEAR 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXED LAYER AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH
RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS MAY APPROACH
WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. A TRAILING WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
A SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LOW...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A TERTIARY AND MORE POTENT TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100KT UPPER JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN
MN. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO APPROACHES AT THIS TIME. BEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AND LEAD
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE. A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RUNS HAVE BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE OVER TIME. THIS
LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM FRIDAYS TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS
WI AND LOWER MI. WITH AN OPEN PATH FOR GULF MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD...THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER CHANCES OF A
MODERATE RAIN EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AMPLE SUPPORT SHOULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 110KT UPPER JET COLLOCATED
WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290-295K THETA SFCS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE RESPONSE TO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE ON PRECIP FOR THIS REASON. WHILE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY LIMIT QPF...ENOUGH OTHER FACTORS ARE IN
PLACE TO TO PUT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASED
QPF. ALSO...WEAK SFC TO LOW-LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY WILL REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS UPPER MI...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS NOTED...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL...SO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THAT TIME. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM A COLDER AND WETTER
FORECAST MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND BRINGS ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO WET SNOW AS NOTED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK. THE COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET 2KFT
ABOVE THE SURFACE (TO 50-60KTS) MAY LEAD TO SOME LLWS WHICH IS IN
THE CMX AND SAW TAFS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THIS EVENINGY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-40KTS)...BUT THE
ICE COVER ON THE LAKE SHOULD HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MAYBE A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER HIGHER
PLATFORMS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING
BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND (SAT NIGHT INTO SUN)...BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO
PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF/KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS
PRODUCED SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN TO
SEND AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S REPORTED SCNTRL
UPPER MI (AT LEAST 55F IN KMNM) DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING 5H HGTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SFC RDG WILL
ALLOW LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW
FOR A DECENT TEMP FALL. CONTINUED TO KEEP MINS TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS SHOULD FALL TO THE MID
TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER THE E.
WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SPREAD SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH SHIFTING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA AND LEADING TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS.
STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
(850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -2C AT 12Z TO AT LEAST 6C BY 00Z THURSDAY)
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 40S OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF CWA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. SW WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO WARM
AND LIMIT LAKE BREEZE COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS EASTERN CANADIAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE FAR EAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS/5-10KFT...THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND.
FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT OF A DEVELOPING
90-100KT UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE AVAILABLE FORCING ACROSS UPPER MI TO A NARROW
BAND OF FGEN ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LOW...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A NARROW 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE QUITE SCATTERED...SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OVER CHANCE POPS.
SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OF WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND WILL BE OF NOTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING S
TO SW GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOTED BY A 50 TO 60KT H8 LLJ. AREAS
FAVORED BY S TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY
AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ABOVE 32F...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI
MAY BEGIN QUICKLY ERODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO EACH THEIR OWN WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS FRIDAY EVENING RANGING FROM A
STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/GFS/ TO WEAK RIDGING/NAM/ TO
NW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/GEM AND ECMWF/. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SHOWING SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS REASON. WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
STRETCH...TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS DOMINATE PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. GIVEN SOME CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THE ECMWF...WILL USE THAT TO FORMULATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND GRAZE
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE LEFT-EXIT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES A SFC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COMPLICATED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK TRACKS SE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ROUND THE LARGER TROUGH...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BEFORE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR...SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...UPPER MI WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MODERATE
TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM/PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
IF ANYTHING...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK THE PATTERN FELT OVER
MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THE
TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE SW WINDS TO
GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW LATE WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES
ARRIVING BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT
PUSHES WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU
NIGHT/FRI. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. LOWS WELL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
MOST ABUNDANT SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 32F AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS 24HRS AGO IS NOW
MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE OVER
WRN UPPER MI HAS BEEN GENERATING PESKY -SHRA FROM ISLE ROYALE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DURING THE NIGHT. THE -SHRA ARE DRIFTING SSE
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE HAVE WORKED TO LIMIT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...UTILIZED MOSTLY EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS TO
SHIFT AN AREA OF ISOLD/SCT -SHRA SSE FROM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD SCNTRL
UPPER MI BEFORE THE -SHRA DISSIPATE. WHERE THE -SHRA ARE
OCCURRING...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
-SHRA...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. BEST CHC SHOULD BE OVER WRN UPPER MI. DWPT AT DISW4 IS STILL
AROUND 35F. AS THIS HIGHER DWPT AIR OVER THE LAKE ADVECTS SSE INTO
WRN UPPER MI WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO FREEZING...STRATUS/FOG
AND POTENTIALLY -FZDZ SHOULD DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...BREAKING UP CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER
THE E WHERE THERE WILL BE A BRISK WIND ACROSS THE LAKE...TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE LWR 30S TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY 30S AND LWR 40S N TO AROUND 50 FAR SCNTRL FROM KIMT TO
NEAR KMNM.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW A DECENT TEMP FALL. LOWERED
MINS TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS
CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THE
TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE SW WINDS TO
GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND
DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LWR LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-25KT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES ARRIVING
BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT PUSHES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT/FRI.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS 24HRS AGO IS NOW
MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE OVER
WRN UPPER MI HAS BEEN GENERATING PESKY -SHRA FROM ISLE ROYALE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DURING THE NIGHT. THE -SHRA ARE DRIFTING SSE
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE HAVE WORKED TO LIMIT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...UTILIZED MOSTLY EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS TO
SHIFT AN AREA OF ISOLD/SCT -SHRA SSE FROM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD SCNTRL
UPPER MI BEFORE THE -SHRA DISSIPATE. WHERE THE -SHRA ARE
OCCURRING...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
-SHRA...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. BEST CHC SHOULD BE OVER WRN UPPER MI. DWPT AT DISW4 IS STILL
AROUND 35F. AS THIS HIGHER DWPT AIR OVER THE LAKE ADVECTS SSE INTO
WRN UPPER MI WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO FREEZING...STRATUS/FOG
AND POTENTIALLY -FZDZ SHOULD DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...BREAKING UP CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER
THE E WHERE THERE WILL BE A BRISK WIND ACROSS THE LAKE...TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE LWR 30S TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY 30S AND LWR 40S N TO AROUND 50 FAR SCNTRL FROM KIMT TO
NEAR KMNM.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW A DECENT TEMP FALL. LOWERED
MINS TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS
CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MID CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/-DZ/-FZDZ FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING MAY YIELD MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KSAW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND
DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LWR LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-25KT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES ARRIVING
BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT PUSHES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT/FRI.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS 24HRS AGO IS NOW
MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE OVER
WRN UPPER MI HAS BEEN GENERATING PESKY -SHRA FROM ISLE ROYALE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DURING THE NIGHT. THE -SHRA ARE DRIFTING SSE
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE HAVE WORKED TO LIMIT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...UTILIZED MOSTLY EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS TO
SHIFT AN AREA OF ISOLD/SCT -SHRA SSE FROM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD SCNTRL
UPPER MI BEFORE THE -SHRA DISSIPATE. WHERE THE -SHRA ARE
OCCURRING...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
-SHRA...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. BEST CHC SHOULD BE OVER WRN UPPER MI. DWPT AT DISW4 IS STILL
AROUND 35F. AS THIS HIGHER DWPT AIR OVER THE LAKE ADVECTS SSE INTO
WRN UPPER MI WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO FREEZING...STRATUS/FOG
AND POTENTIALLY -FZDZ SHOULD DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...BREAKING UP CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER
THE E WHERE THERE WILL BE A BRISK WIND ACROSS THE LAKE...TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE LWR 30S TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY 30S AND LWR 40S N TO AROUND 50 FAR SCNTRL FROM KIMT TO
NEAR KMNM.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW A DECENT TEMP FALL. LOWERED
MINS TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS
CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN RECENT HRS OVER THE WEST...EXPECT THAT LIFR AND
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT CMX/IWD WHILE MAINLY MVFR DROPPING
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW. THE LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBY
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND
DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LWR LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-25KT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES ARRIVING
BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT PUSHES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT/FRI.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WITH A 997MB
SFC LOW OFFSET JUST TO THE E. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THAT LOW TO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE NEAR DLH. AN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA UNDER THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
W...WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED OVER WRN UPPER MI FROM THIS PRECIP. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR IRONWOOD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN A
DIMINISHING TREND ON RADAR AND LACK OF MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THERE.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING AND GOING FROM NEAR IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEAR NEWBERRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE FALLEN IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SRN/ERN
SHOWERS POORLY...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE PRECIP WELL ALL DAY AND HAVE SFC DEW POINTS /AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY/ TOO HIGH. WENT MORE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR THAT AREA...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
THIS EVENING THERE.
AFTER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH /AND FOG
OVER WRN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING NNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL NOT TOO CERTAIN ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY...BUT ENOUGH
HIGH RES MODELS WERE SHOWING IT TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW ALONG WITH A
SFC RIDGE...SO DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MORNING. HAVE HIGHS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SCENTRAL...5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER /850MB TEMPS 8-9 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY/.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN RECENT HRS OVER THE WEST...EXPECT THAT LIFR AND
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT CMX/IWD WHILE MAINLY MVFR DROPPING
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW. THE LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBY
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WITH A 997MB
SFC LOW OFFSET JUST TO THE E. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THAT LOW TO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE NEAR DLH. AN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA UNDER THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
W...WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED OVER WRN UPPER MI FROM THIS PRECIP. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR IRONWOOD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN A
DIMINISHING TREND ON RADAR AND LACK OF MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THERE.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING AND GOING FROM NEAR IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEAR NEWBERRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE FALLEN IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SRN/ERN
SHOWERS POORLY...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE PRECIP WELL ALL DAY AND HAVE SFC DEW POINTS /AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY/ TOO HIGH. WENT MORE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR THAT AREA...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
THIS EVENING THERE.
AFTER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH /AND FOG
OVER WRN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING NNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL NOT TOO CERTAIN ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY...BUT ENOUGH
HIGH RES MODELS WERE SHOWING IT TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW ALONG WITH A
SFC RIDGE...SO DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MORNING. HAVE HIGHS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SCENTRAL...5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER /850MB TEMPS 8-9 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY/.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE PW VALUES START
THE EVENING NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/. THE EXITING SFC RIDGE
OVER THE CWA AT 06Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A WRAPPED
UP LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE 978MB WILL SWING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND E OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. 850MB WINDS AROUND 40KTS WILL BE OVER UPPER MI FROM 00Z
THURSDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT MIXING OFF THE
NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35KT GUSTS OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS
FURTHER AS THE TIME NEARS. GALES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
TRIES TO PUSH N FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT NW FLOW TO LINGER AT
500MB THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS...SFC TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OUT OF THE HWO FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE W OF A LINE FROM MQT TO ESC...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOLDING NEAR FREEZING. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE CWA TEMPS SHOULD BE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP THE MENTION OUT IS THE
FACT THAT OUR CURRENT TEMP FCST IS ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE...INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY.
THIS LOW PROBABILITY PRECIP WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STRETCH FROM WI THROUGH N TX
AT 06Z SUNDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AT 12Z SUNDAY
WILL CROSS UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE SFC LOW
REMAINING MAINLY TO OUR S AND E /STRETCHING FROM S QUEBEC THROUGH MO
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES...PARTICULARLY
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON WITH THE GFS ON THE QUICK SIDE. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCES THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR S CENTRAL UPPER MI. RAIN WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE UNTIL THE LOW SHIFTS E AND TRANSITIONS
TO MAINLY S SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE -15 TO -18C RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY A LITTLE MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER...THE ECMWF DOES BRING BACK NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT 850MB
TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR
STORY...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN RECENT HRS OVER THE WEST...EXPECT THAT LIFR AND
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT CMX/IWD WHILE MAINLY MVFR DROPPING
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW. THE LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBY
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
ADJUST TIMING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MINOR. /BB/
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOCUSED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEEP
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA IS FORCING A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE HAS THUS
FAR BEEN VERY LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. HIRES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS BAND CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING INTO ALABAMA BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WHEN SURFACE TEMPS HIT THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE...WHICH WILL HAPPEN IN PATCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
EVEN GIVEN RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SOME MIXING IN OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MENTIONED SHOWER BAND AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND THERE
STILL WILL BE AN IMPULSE OR TWO LEFT TO SWING RAPIDLY DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD KICK UP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. HIRES HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS LATTER
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 6 TO 7
PM...POSSIBLY OVER 50 MPH...WHICH IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE OF THE SITUATION AND NO LARGE
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. HAIL POTENTIAL AS ADVERTISED SHOULD FAVOR
SMALL HAIL SIZES ALTHOUGH A TOP END STORM FOR THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
ACHIEVE SOME STONES TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
ONE FINAL COMMENT IS THAT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS SOME CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH IS NOT GOOD NEWS CONSIDERING FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY EXCEEDING AN INCH ARE VERY LOW AND TODAY`S
RAINFALL IN GENERAL IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WORSEN
ANY CURRENT FLOODING. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
HYDROLOGY...MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH ARE EXPECTED ON AVERAGE TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
SERIOUSLY AGGRAVATE THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION...BUT ANY RAIN AT
THIS POINT WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND POSSIBLY SLOW DOWN THE DRAINAGE
PROCESS. /EC/
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING THE SET-UP FOR TODAY`S
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. AN IMPRESSIVELY COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH H500 TEMPERATURES ~ -25 DEG C WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TODAY. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS BY MID
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JET ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL LINE
UP WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE LIKELY EXCEEDING 700 J/KG. THIS
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD LOW-TOP NEAR SURFACE-
BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 6000
FT..SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD CERTAINLY MIX DOWN GIVEN STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES/ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND 30-35KTS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARD PRODUCTS AS
THEY ARE WITH A MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND 40-50 MPH WIND
GUST POTENTIAL. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE
REGION...AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO
AND THROUGH THE CWA. JUST AS THE CASE WAS LAST NIGHT...THERE ARE
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE WITH THEIR TIMING OF SAID SYSTEM IN BRINGING IT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXITING IT MONDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY DESPITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 09/00Z. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AT THOSE LOACTIONS THAT
MANAGE TO SEE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME FROM FOG./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 64 41 67 43 / 68 27 0 0
MERIDIAN 65 40 68 38 / 70 42 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 41 67 41 / 73 15 0 0
HATTIESBURG 69 44 69 41 / 70 35 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 40 65 43 / 63 20 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 43 67 45 / 80 15 0 0
GREENWOOD 66 43 67 44 / 70 26 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/26/EC/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...
AT 1100 AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST WEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO NEAR WADESBORO. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE TRIAD WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN WITH
MOIST DEW POINTS...INSTABILITY IS RATHER LACKING BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS JOHNSTON AND WILSON COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS. RECENT HRRR RUNS NOTED THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE SHOWERS BUT INDICATED A LIMITED AERIAL OVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A FAIRLY THICK VEIL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STOUT 165+KT JET ALOFT. THE PRIO MORNING UPDATE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TO
JUST THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CAW FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE COUNTERACTIVE
INFLUENCES OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION.
LEANED HEAVILY UPON THE HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
RESULTED IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAGE
AND THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. -BLAES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KFAY AND
KGSB BY 19Z. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE NOW VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND NEARLY ALL OF
CENTRAL NC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS GSB AND ETC. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AROUND 4-6KFT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...WHICH MAY FLIRT
WITH MVFR CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AND THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO HAVE OMITTED IT FROM
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW
AT 10 KTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK....AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WEDNESDAY TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WIL PRODUCE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...
AT 1100 AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST WEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO NEAR WADESBORO. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE TRIAD WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN WITH
MOIST DEW POINTS...INSTABILITY IS RATHER LACKING BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS JOHNSTON AND WILSON COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS. RECENT HRRR RUNS NOTED THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE SHOWERS BUT INDICATED A LIMITED AERIAL OVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A FAIRLY THICK VEIL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STOUT 165+KT JET ALOFT. THE PRIO MORNING UPDATE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TO
JUST THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CAW FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE COUNTERACTIVE
INFLUENECES OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION.
LEANED HEAVILY UPON THE HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
RESULTED IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAGE
AND THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. -BLAES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A GIVEN LOCATION EXPECT CIGS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR WHEN IN A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGSO
AND KINT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KRDU IN THE 13-15Z
TIMEFRAME... THEN KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT KFAY AND KRWI
THROUGH AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND FAIRLY
LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KRDU BY AROUND MID MORNING
TODAY. WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY
AND KRWI AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT
SHOW CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z (AND COULD
EVEN LINGER AS LATE AS 21Z). OTHERWISE... EXPECT WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY TO AT TIME
MOSTLY CLOUDY (VFR CIGS THOUGH) AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
757 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING...AS THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
EXPECT THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. HOWEVER... WITH THE DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PW`S STILL AROUND 1.5+ INCHES
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR EAST EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE
THIS MORNING IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE TIME OF MORNING AND RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY WE REMAIN
RATHER STABLE AT THE SURFACE. THUS.. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST RAP DID SHOW MAYBE A 100 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
POINTS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF RALEIGH. THUS... WE CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... BUT
THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE SMALL AT BEST.
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY... WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START THE DAY EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. IN FACT WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST (OR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA)... WE MAY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO LATE IN
THE DAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT PERHAPS SEE
THE MOST SUN TODAY. WRT HIGH TEMPS.... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND EAST...
AS WE WILL HAVE HAVE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW... PLUS THICKNESS VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CRASH.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A GIVEN LOCATION EXPECT CIGS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR WHEN IN A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGSO
AND KINT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KRDU IN THE 13-15Z
TIMEFRAME... THEN KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT KFAY AND KRWI
THROUGH AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND FAIRLY
LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KRDU BY AROUND MID MORNING
TODAY. WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY
AND KRWI AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT
SHOW CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z (AND COULD
EVEN LINGER AS LATE AS 21Z). OTHERWISE... EXPECT WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY TO AT TIME
MOSTLY CLOUDY (VFR CIGS THOUGH) AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING...AS THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
EXPECT THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. HOWEVER... WITH THE DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PW`S STILL AROUND 1.5+ INCHES
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR EAST EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE
THIS MORNING IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE TIME OF MORNING AND RAINFALL FRONT EARLIER TODAY WE REMAIN
RATHER STABLE AT THE SURFACE. THUS.. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST RAP DID SHOW MAYBE A 100 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
POINTS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF RALEIGH. THUS... WE CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... BUT
THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE SMALL AT BEST.
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY... WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START THE DAY EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. IN FACT WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST (OR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA)... WE MAY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO LATE IN
THE DAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT PERHAPS SEE
THE MOST SUN TODAY. WRT HIGH TEMPS.... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND EAST...
AS WE WILL HAVE HAVE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW... PLUS THICKNESS VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CRASH.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE... WITH EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY AT
KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS A GIVE LOCATION... ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS TO EVEN 30 KTS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION IN THE 09-11Z TIME
FRAME.... KRDU AROUND 12Z AND KFAY/KRWI 13-16Z. WE MAY SEE SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY AND KRWI AS A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT SHOW
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z... WITH EVEN A
SMALL THREAT OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TOO. OTHERWISE... EXPECT
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
HAVE TREND A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING...AS THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
EXPECT THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. HOWEVER... WITH THE DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PW`S STILL AROUND 1.5+ INCHES
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR EAST EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE
THIS MORNING IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE TIME OF MORNING AND RAINFALL FRONT EARLIER TODAY WE REMAIN
RATHER STABLE AT THE SURFACE. THUS.. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST RAP DID SHOW MAYBE A 100 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
POINTS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF RALEIGH. THUS... WE CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... BUT
THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE SMALL AT BEST.
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY... WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START THE DAY EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. IN FACT WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST (OR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA)... WE MAY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO LATE IN
THE DAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT PERHAPS SEE
THE MOST SUN TODAY. WRT HIGH TEMPS.... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND EAST...
AS WE WILL HAVE HAVE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW... PLUS THICKNESS VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CRASH.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT RISES
TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE AREA. A
MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE K INDICES FALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEAR 20 TO AROUND ZERO BY
NIGHTFALL. JET SUPPORT BY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS. LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST
KM HARDLY REGISTERS ON THE GFS...1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AT OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7.5C/KM. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ALOFT IS WEAK...INCREASING
AROUND 700MB BY 00Z...BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN...IN THE COOL
TROUGH ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING STABILITY
WITH AN INCREASING CAP ALOFT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER DIURNAL IN NATURE. FORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB ARE MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 25KT...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN VOLUME...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VERY GUSTY WIND WITH A SHOWER IS CURRENTLY LOW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECOUPLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND
THE AIR MASS BECOMES RATHER DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KFAY. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE AT NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED A TREND COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...MOSTLY 37 TO 42. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR
REMAINS EXPECTED...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 AND COULD BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING TROUGHINESS ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCREASE SURFACE
RIDGING WEST OVER THE GULF SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT SO THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LOW AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WILL RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
DRIER AIR FORECAST BY THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW
SLIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS A RESULT OF SOME
PHASING OF MODERATE WAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...INTRODUCING GOOD QPF INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF...WITH
A FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO MONDAY...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
CURRENTLY WILL BE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE MEX AND MEE ARE VERY SIMILAR
AND ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS BASED UPON 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE REST OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO LOWS TO AROUND 60 MONDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THEN TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE... WITH EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY AT
KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS A GIVE LOCATION... ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS TO EVEN 30 KTS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION IN THE 09-11Z TIME
FRAME.... KRDU AROUND 12Z AND KFAY/KRWI 13-16Z. WE MAY SEE SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY AND KRWI AS A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT SHOW
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z... WITH EVEN A
SMALL THREAT OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TOO. OTHERWISE... EXPECT
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
HAVE TREND A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
157 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS IS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS EVENING...WITH
A LINGERING TRUE WEDGE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...A
RETREATING WARM FROM SLOWLY PENETRATING INTO THE PIEDMONT...A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. CURRENTLY...ALL
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH JUST
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. REGIONAL RADAR SUGGESTS THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS BIG QUESTION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT....WHERE THE LATEST RAP
RUNS SHOW 300-400 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED BY A POCKET STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...REDEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORCING FOR ACCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AIDED BY
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
MAKE A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH EAST. HRRR RUNS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO KICKING UP OVER
UPSTATE SC IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT. DRYING MID-LEVEL AIR ANALYZED AT 700MB SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORM LIMITED...BUT IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...EITHER WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF SC...OR WITH A
FORCED LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THE FORECASTS UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. WILL ALSO ADJUST
TEMPS TO REFLECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT. -SMITH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID MORNING...
EXPECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE GFS
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT RISES
TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE AREA. A
MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE K INDICES FALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEAR 20 TO AROUND ZERO BY
NIGHTFALL. JET SUPPORT BY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS. LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST
KM HARDLY REGISTERS ON THE GFS...1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AT OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7.5C/KM. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ALOFT IS WEAK...INCREASING
AROUND 700MB BY 00Z...BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN...IN THE COOL
TROUGH ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING STABILITY
WITH AN INCREASING CAP ALOFT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER DIURNAL IN NATURE. FORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB ARE MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 25KT...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN VOLUME...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VERY GUSTY WIND WITH A SHOWER IS CURRENTLY LOW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECOUPLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND
THE AIR MASS BECOMES RATHER DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KFAY. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE AT NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED A TREND COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...MOSTLY 37 TO 42. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR
REMAINS EXPECTED...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 AND COULD BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING TROUGHINESS ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCREASE SURFACE
RIDGING WEST OVER THE GULF SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT SO THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LOW AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WILL RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
DRIER AIR FORECAST BY THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW
SLIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS A RESULT OF SOME
PHASING OF MODERATE WAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...INTRODUCING GOOD QPF INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF...WITH
A FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO MONDAY...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
CURRENTLY WILL BE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE MEX AND MEE ARE VERY SIMILAR
AND ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS BASED UPON 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE REST OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO LOWS TO AROUND 60 MONDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THEN TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE... WITH EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY AT
KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS A GIVE LOCATION... ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS TO EVEN 30 KTS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION IN THE 09-11Z TIME
FRAME.... KRDU AROUND 12Z AND KFAY/KRWI 13-16Z. WE MAY SEE SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY AND KRWI AS A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT SHOW
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z... WITH EVEN A
SMALL THREAT OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TOO. OTHERWISE... EXPECT
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
HAVE TREND A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...KCP/SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
951 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS DIMINSIHING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES NORTH
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH TOWARD THE SD BORDER. FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CWA
SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED/CANCELLED. RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WERE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AND
CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY. HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED
TO OVER 30 PERCENT FAR SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT IS MARGINAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. WILL
NEED ANOTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE HOUR FOR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ONE SHOWER
AROUND 4 PM CDT PRODUCED A 77 MPH GUST AT HETTINGER AND 72 MPH
GUST NEAR BOWMAN...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH NORTHERN TONGUE OF
1000+ J/KG AREA OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE WHICH DECREASED RAPIDLY
AFTERWARD...SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
INCLUDING SOME 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST ND. OTHERWISE...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY THROUGH MOST OF CWA WITH SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JNS
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
818 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CWA
SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED/CANCELLED. RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WERE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AND
CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY. HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED
TO OVER 30 PERCENT FAR SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT IS MARGINAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. WILL
NEED ANOTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE HOUR FOR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ONE SHOWER
AROUND 4 PM CDT PRODUCED A 77 MPH GUST AT HETTINGER AND 72 MPH
GUST NEAR BOWMAN...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH NORTHERN TONGUE OF
1000+ J/KG AREA OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE WHICH DECREASED RAPIDLY
AFTERWARD...SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
INCLUDING SOME 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST ND. OTHERWISE...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY THROUGH MOST OF CWA WITH SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JNS
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WERE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AND
CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY. HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED
TO OVER 30 PERCENT FAR SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT IS MARGINAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. WILL
NEED ANOTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE HOUR FOR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ONE SHOWER
AROUND 4 PM CDT PRODUCED A 77 MPH GUST AT HETTINGER AND 72 MPH
GUST NEAR BOWMAN...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH NORTHERN TONGUE OF
1000+ J/KG AREA OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE WHICH DECREASED RAPIDLY
AFTERWARD...SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
INCLUDING SOME 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST ND. OTHERWISE...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY THROUGH MOST OF CWA WITH SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>034-040>044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-035>037-
045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JNS
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WITH -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED AROUND ALL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONGER CONVECTION COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY
TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
DUE TO WET GROUNDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
HIGHS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CORE OF
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST. 12Z RAOBS
SHOW UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -25C TO -30C. DESPITE
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WARMING BL COMBINED WITH THE COLD
MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS HIGH AS 800 J/KG IN
WESTERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT...AND EXPANDED LIKELY POPS TO ALL
ZONES IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. THE COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
5000 FT AGL INDICATE ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR HAIL IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST. HAIL SIZE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SUB-
SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CORES.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z-02Z MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.
MVFR FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXISTS WITHIN A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
IS RATHER DEEP AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS MO
AND AR.
LATER TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL BE
ORIENTED OVER THE MID STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN THE TROUGH ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS. THEREFORE...FOR THE FCST...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY MORNING BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATES BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE. MID LEVEL
THETA E RIDGING DOES EXIST BUT PRIMARILY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID STATE. SFC CAPES AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE IN PLACE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST. STORMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG OR SEVERE BUT PERHAPS SOME SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL
COULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AFTER
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
DRY WEATHER TO RETURN FOR WED AND THU. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE.
IN THE EXT FCST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TN ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GOING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH HOWEVER AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE WEEKEND. NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD BE A
GOOD RAIN MAKER FOR US. AT THE SFC...THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL ENERGY
MAY TAKE A SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND THUS...NOT LOOKING LIKE A WELL
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST A GOOD RAIN MAKER...WITH
A FEW NON SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS 850 MB VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY 10C+. A COOL DOWN WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND MONDAYS
FROPA. THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD LOOKS RATHER CHILLY FOR EARLY TO MID
APRIL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1103 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
HIGHS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CORE OF
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST. 12Z RAOBS
SHOW UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -25C TO -30C. DESPITE
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WARMING BL COMBINED WITH THE COLD
MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS HIGH AS 800 J/KG IN
WESTERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT...AND EXPANDED LIKELY POPS TO ALL
ZONES IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. THE COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
5000 FT AGL INDICATE ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR HAIL IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST. HAIL SIZE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SUB-
SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CORES.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z-02Z MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.
MVFR FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXISTS WITHIN A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
IS RATHER DEEP AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS MO
AND AR.
LATER TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL BE
ORIENTED OVER THE MID STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN THE TROUGH ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS. THEREFORE...FOR THE FCST...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY MORNING BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATES BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE. MID LEVEL
THETA E RIDGING DOES EXIST BUT PRIMARILY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID STATE. SFC CAPES AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE IN PLACE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST. STORMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG OR SEVERE BUT PERHAPS SOME SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL
COULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AFTER
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
DRY WEATHER TO RETURN FOR WED AND THU. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE.
IN THE EXT FCST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TN ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GOING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH HOWEVER AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE WEEKEND. NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD BE A
GOOD RAIN MAKER FOR US. AT THE SFC...THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL ENERGY
MAY TAKE A SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND THUS...NOT LOOKING LIKE A WELL
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST A GOOD RAIN MAKER...WITH
A FEW NON SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS 850 MB VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY 10C+. A COOL DOWN WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND MONDAYS
FROPA. THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD LOOKS RATHER CHILLY FOR EARLY TO MID
APRIL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1223 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO SETTLE
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS EVENING AND TRACK EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
MARINE...MIXING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE SURFACE GETTING UNDERWAY
THIS MORNING BUT WINDS HOLDING IN THE 12-15 KNOT RANGE WITH FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
EVEN THOUGH 850 MB WINDS SIT ON 30-33 KNOTS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN A BIT. MOST RECENT NAM DATA IN THE 950-925 MB LAYER
INDICATE 20-22 KNOTS WITH LESS TOWARD THE SURFACE...AND IT MAY BE
A BIT TOUGH TO REALIZE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN LEG WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ADVISORY/CAUTION
AS IS AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
52/BSG
FIRE WEATHER...LATEST 12Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR ARE RIGHT IN TUNE WITH
THE CURRENT THINKING ON 20 FOOT WINDS...WITH A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
DIMINISHING BELOW 15 MPH AS THE LOWEST RH APPROACHES. IN THE
WARNING AREA...THE 15+ MPH 20 FOOT NORTHWEST WINDS LINE UP WITH
THE SHARPEST DEW POINT DROP BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW LOW THE HUMIDITY FALLS...WE NEED TO DROP JUST BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO REALIZE THE `FLASH DROUGHT`
SITUATION THAT CAN CAUSE RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH AND THAT MAY BE A
STRETCH BUT SITUATION IS RIGHT ON THE FENCE SO NO REASON TO REMOVE
THE SAFETY VALVE OF THE WARNING FOR NOW.
52/BSG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WINDS WILL GUST AT 18
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
CLEAR ON WATER VAPOR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. MOST
EVIDENT AREAS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE NOW EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE RADAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUIET OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...
AND PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTY.
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. NAM12 AND ARW/NMM 00Z GUIDANCE PRODUCES WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MET AND MAV MOS DO NOT SHOW DEW POINTS THIS
LOW...BUT SUSPECT THE CLIMATOLOGY SIGNAL IS TOO STRONG IN THE
DATASET FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL
OUTPUT BASED ON THE SOURCE AIR MASS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 0 TO 10 DEGREES F IN THAT AREA. DEW
POINTS WILL DROP QUICKLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WITH VERTICAL
MIXING COMBINING WITH ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR. THERE WILL BE
VERY WEAK NET COLD ADVECTION ONGOING BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING 850/700MB THICKNESS VALUES...CONTINUED A LITTLE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE ON FORECAST MAXES. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR 20 KNOT MARINE WINDS AND NAM/HIGH RES DEPICTION
OF LOWER WINDS NEAR SHORE AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE MAKES
SENSE GIVEN SATELLITE DERIVED AND OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF 15 MPH 20 FOOT WIND AND AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW
IN JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTY FOR A WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT AMID
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. VERY DRY
NEAR SURFACE AIR AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THOSE WINDS ALTHOUGH IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO RECHARGE THE WESTERN GULF AIR MASS
AFTER THE ONSLAUGHT OF VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
WITH THAT...PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A STEADY BUT NOT OVER
WHELMING SOUTHEAST BREEZE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REPEAT
THURSDAY AFTN...DIPPING INTO THE 20S OUT WEST AND ENHANCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY RANGE...WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
STILL DOMINATE JUST UPSTREAM...BUT A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LWR
WEST COAST...AND THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FLATTEN. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWEST HELPS DESTABILIZE THINGS A BIT OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER FRONT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH
COINCIDES WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
BRINGS A GOO AMOUNT OF RAIN THE THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA BUT
BRINGS A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE RGV MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND...SINCE TIMING ISSUES WERE NOT EXTREME...
AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...
AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT COINCIDING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER AND
AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
PHASING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY POST FRONT WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS SKIES CLEAR.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE NEARSHORE AND LIKELY
AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME ROUGH OFFSHORE. BETTER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THEREAFTER THOUGH...THROUGH
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AS LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTERACTS WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERATE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NEARLY NONEXISTENT.
FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. A SURGE
OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND
12 TO 18 PERCENT WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STARR...BROOKS...KENEDY...AND
INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES TODAY AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ250>255.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1014 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
&&
.MARINE...MIXING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE SURFACE GETTING UNDERWAY
THIS MORNING BUT WINDS HOLDING IN THE 12-15 KNOT RANGE WITH FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
EVEN THOUGH 850 MB WINDS SIT ON 30-33 KNOTS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN A BIT. MOST RECENT NAM DATA IN THE 950-925 MB LAYER
INDICATE 20-22 KNOTS WITH LESS TOWARD THE SURFACE...AND IT MAY BE
A BIT TOUGH TO REALIZE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN LEG WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ADVISORY/CAUTION
AS IS AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
52/BSG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST 12Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR ARE RIGHT IN TUNE WITH
THE CURRENT THINKING ON 20 FOOT WINDS...WITH A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
DIMINISHING BELOW 15 MPH AS THE LOWEST RH APPROACHES. IN THE
WARNING AREA...THE 15+ MPH 20 FOOT NORTHWEST WINDS LINE UP WITH
THE SHARPEST DEW POINT DROP BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW LOW THE HUMIDITY FALLS...WE NEED TO DROP JUST BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO REALIZE THE `FLASH DROUGHT`
SITUATION THAT CAN CAUSE RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH AND THAT MAY BE A
STRETCH BUT SITUATION IS RIGHT ON THE FENCE SO NO REASON TO REMOVE
THE SAFETY VALVE OF THE WARNING FOR NOW.
52/BSG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WINDS WILL GUST AT 18
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
CLEAR ON WATER VAPOR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. MOST
EVIDENT AREAS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE NOW EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE RADAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUIET OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...
AND PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTY.
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. NAM12 AND ARW/NMM 00Z GUIDANCE PRODUCES WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MET AND MAV MOS DO NOT SHOW DEW POINTS THIS
LOW...BUT SUSPECT THE CLIMATOLOGY SIGNAL IS TOO STRONG IN THE
DATASET FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL
OUTPUT BASED ON THE SOURCE AIR MASS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 0 TO 10 DEGREES F IN THAT AREA. DEW
POINTS WILL DROP QUICKLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WITH VERTICAL
MIXING COMBINING WITH ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR. THERE WILL BE
VERY WEAK NET COLD ADVECTION ONGOING BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING 850/700MB THICKNESS VALUES...CONTINUED A LITTLE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE ON FORECAST MAXES. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR 20 KNOT MARINE WINDS AND NAM/HIGH RES DEPICTION
OF LOWER WINDS NEAR SHORE AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE MAKES
SENSE GIVEN SATELLITE DERIVED AND OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF 15 MPH 20 FOOT WIND AND AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW
IN JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTY FOR A WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT AMID
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. VERY DRY
NEAR SURFACE AIR AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THOSE WINDS ALTHOUGH IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO RECHARGE THE WESTERN GULF AIR MASS
AFTER THE ONSLAUGHT OF VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
WITH THAT...PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A STEADY BUT NOT OVER
WHELMING SOUTHEAST BREEZE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REPEAT
THURSDAY AFTN...DIPPING INTO THE 20S OUT WEST AND ENHANCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY RANGE...WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
STILL DOMINATE JUST UPSTREAM...BUT A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LWR
WEST COAST...AND THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FLATTEN. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWEST HELPS DESTABILIZE THINGS A BIT OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER FRONT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH
COINCIDES WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
BRINGS A GOO AMOUNT OF RAIN THE THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA BUT
BRINGS A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE RGV MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND...SINCE TIMING ISSUES WERE NOT EXTREME...
AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...
AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT COINCIDING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER AND
AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
PHASING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY POST FRONT WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS SKIES CLEAR.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE NEARSHORE AND LIKELY
AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME ROUGH OFFSHORE. BETTER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THEREAFTER THOUGH...THROUGH
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AS LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTERACTS WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERATE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NEARLY NONEXISTENT.
FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. A SURGE
OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND
12 TO 18 PERCENT WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STARR...BROOKS...KENEDY...AND
INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES TODAY AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ250>255.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SO FAR TODAY AND RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S WEST. THE REAL WARM AIR
RESIDES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
RAPIDLY ON THE INCREASE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06-07Z. DECENT QG FORCING ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TO SEE LIGHT RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SO NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF RAIN.,.AND SHOULD
NOT IMPACT RIVERS MUCH. LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ONGOING. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN UMBRELLA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THEN THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN SEASONABLE. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS...QPF AMOUNTS AND THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.
INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES (50S
AND LOWER 60S) INTO THE REGION. WAA...COMBINED WITH A S/W TROF AND
JET STREAK ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM). HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO WI IN ADVANCE OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF/
COLD FRONT...ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT LLJ. THE PCPN MAY BE
ENHANCED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC WAVE RIPPLES NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH COULD ENHANCE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES OVER C/EC/NE WI...
WHERE MANY RIVERS ARE RUNNING OVER BANKFULL.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF MOVMT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ANOTHER SFC
WAVE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS...WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF WI ON MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SMALL
PCPN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50
KNOTS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RIVERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THE RATHER DRY SPRING...THE LATE MELT OF THE SNOW PACK
AND LINGERING FROST DEPTH...RIVER LEVELS OVERALL ARE BEHAVING.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES AND WOLF RIVER AS WELL AS PESHTIGO AND OCONTO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND FS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHIOCTON
IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE WARNING LATER THIS WEEK. SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND MAY
PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THESE BASINS...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO THIS SYSTEM
THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
727 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500MB RAP HEIGHTS SHOWS
DEEP TROUGH MARCHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH UPSTREAM
RIDGING EXTENDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WEST
COAST. IN THE PAST 24 HOURS THIS RIDGE HAS BROKEN
DOWN...INDICATING A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE DAYS TO
COME. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST ARE SKIRTING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA WESTWARD TO NORTHWEST
MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. ITS A WARM...BREEZY AFTERNOON AS
READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S...BRUSHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN / NORTHERN IA.
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TAP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE MILD
AIRMASS...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50.
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV
ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE GREATEST FORCING EXISTS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOOK AT THE HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTS LIGHT ACTIVITY ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FEEL THAT A
LOT OF THE FORCING/LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATION
INITIALLY...LIMITING QPF. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS PASSAGE DURING
THE NIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY TSTORM POTENTIAL LOCALLY...WITH
INSTABILITY WANING AND MAINLY LIMITED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
I-94.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN...THOUGH ITS AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP TOMORROW...AND SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON FOR MOST. HIGHS MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MANY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE LONG TERM...BUT THE BIG PICTURE
IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...YET MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MAINLY STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE
GFS/NAM/GEM CAMP A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHILE THE
09.12Z ECMWF HAS BETTER SATURATION WHICH PAINTS LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. PUSHED HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF...MAINLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. 09.12Z GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF
THE AREA...BUT MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER
WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF AND THE NAM TO SOME DEGREE HOLD THE COLD FRONT
BACK THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ON THE
BOUNDARY. AS THIS NORTHERN / INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT...A SECONDARY SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTING
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WAVE EJECTS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA ON
THE COLDER...NORTHWEST FRINGE. THIS TREND SEEMS TO HAVE CONTINUED
IN THE 09.12Z GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A
CHARLES CITY IOWA TO LA CROSSE TO NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE.
SOME REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /0.75 TO 1.5 IN/ ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND TRIBUTARIES.
TEMPERATURE WISE...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TAD WARMER...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND THEN A FEW DEGREES LESS ON SATURDAY.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE...FALLING TO AROUND -10C
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS ARE MID TO
UPPER 50S/MID 30S...SO GET EXCITED FOR ANOTHER STRETCH OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH A
LITTLE NOW THAT THE SUN IS SETTING. STILL...STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST WINDS GOING STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THE HIGHER
AREA THAT KRST OCCUPIES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP...ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE AS GUSTY. FOR KLSE...THE VALLEY SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
DECOUPLING AND LIGHTER WIND. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE SPEEDS REALLY PICK UP QUICKLY JUST ABOVE
THE VALLEY FLOOR. FRONT TO PASS OVERNIGHT AND WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT DOUBT THERE WILL BE ANY
MVFR RESTRICTION OF EITHER CEILING OR VISIBILITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SEVERAL GRASS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED OVER A PART OF WESTERN WI IN THE
PAST 3-5 HOURS. ONE LARGE FIRE OVER NORTH END OF FORT MCCOY CAN BE
EASILY SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FIRE ALSO APPARENT
NEAR FOUR CORNERS WITH SUBTLE CLUES ON BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE.
ANOTHER FIRE REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT NEAR NORWALK. WITH
SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...AND HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CREWS TO GET AHEAD OF THE FIRES.
MEANWHILE...RED FLAG WARNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. ANY
RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AGAIN BUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER
SO FIRE RISK PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS HIGH...BUT STILL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ZT
LONG TERM......ZT
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
431 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCE BY
SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS
OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15
TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT
KJFK/KLGA.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR A
FEW HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR COULD STILL
OCCUR FOR AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 25 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 20 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUN-MON...VFR...S WIND GUSTS 20-25KT DURING THE AFT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN/NV
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCE BY
SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS
OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
FEW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND SUNRISE INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT KJFK/KLGA. POTENTIAL IN LATE
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL JET FORMATION AND 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT
KJFK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR...WITH GUSTY S WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN/NV
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. DEEP
AND SHARP TROUGH THAT PIVOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS NOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO DEAMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
FL PENINSULA. STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
HAS ALSO HELPED TO SIGNIFICANT DRY OUT THE TROP COLUMN. THE DRYING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS VERY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY WITH A VERY
DRY SWATH OF AIR OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. THE
10/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE REALLY SHOWS JUST HOW DRY THE COLUMN
HAS BECOME WITH A PW VALUE BELOW 0.5"...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 40C THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF
THE TROP. THE DRY COLUMN AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS RESULTING IN
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHOVED FOR THE MOMENT DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN GOMEX AND OVER CUBA/FL STRAITS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOCAL GRADIENT HAS ALSO WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 12-24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL GOMEX. THIS RIDGE IS NOW SETTLING OVER TOP OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THE DRY COLUMN AND LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND STILL EXPECT
SOME 40S FOR LOW TEMPS BY SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST.
THE COOLING WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A COUPLE
MONTHS AGO AS WE ARE NOW WELL INTO THE GROWING SEASON AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL HELP TO KEEP THE AIR MORE MOIST IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER NOW THAT THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AS ENDED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL MORNING FOR THE MIDDLE
OF APRIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A BENIGN PATTERN IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MORNING
WILL START OUT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR...WITH THIS HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK WEST AND
CONTROL THE FL PENINSULA/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A VERY DRY TROP COLUMN WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ONLY GIVE WAY
TO A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A FEW-SCT
SHALLOW CU FIELD IS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
CONVERGENCE BAND BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZES.
HOWEVER...EVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REALLY LACKING AND AS DIURNAL
MIXING GETS HIGHER AND HIGHER WE ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE
REALLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND DISSIPATE ANY CU THAT HAVE FORMED. GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING UP TO OVER 5000FT AT MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 NORTH...AND INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED ALONG AREA BEACHES AS TERRESTRIAL HEATING FORCES SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE RELATIVELY COOLER SHELF WATERS. THIS SEA-BREEZE
WILL BE MOST WELL DEFINED AND MOVE FURTHEST INLAND ALONG THE NATURE
COAST...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...AND WHERE OPPOSING
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE (950-875MB) WILL BE WEAKEST.
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OTHER THAN A SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS AT TIMES. SEA-BREEZE WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY NEAR THE COAST
WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE FAVORED SYNOPTIC EASTERLY/OFFSHORE
DIRECTION BY LATE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S OVER THE NATURE
COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW SUCH AS SOUTHERN
PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE CHARLOTTE HARBOUR AREA SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S. ENJOY YOUR THURSDAY!
&&
.MID TERM (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS NEAR-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ALOFT. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...TO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND COASTAL TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S INLAND AND SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
TO THE MID 50S NORTH...TO AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING AN
E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND AND SOUTH...AND THAT IN COMBINATION
WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND AND SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS
EACH MORNING FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50 TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO IN THE
60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH IT...WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH...AND AROUND 80 COASTAL TO
THE MID 80S INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.
SOME COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S NORTH...TO AROUND 80 COASTAL TO THE MID 80S INLAND
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
10/06Z THROUGH 11/12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SWITCH WEST TO NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ.
ELSEWHERE THE SEA-BREEZE IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INLAND
FAR ENOUGH TO REACH THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL AGAIN SWITCH BACK
LIGHT EASTERLY/OFFSHORE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
OFFSHORE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS BEFORE ALL
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK OVER THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK KEEPING OUR WIND AND SEAS FORECAST LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS...20 FT WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION WILL NOT SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE CLOSEST TO RED FLAG...BUT STILL FALL SHORT...OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE EAST
COAST SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUMP UP THE WINDS FROM THE
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRESCRIBED BURNS CLOSE TO THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ANTICIPATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE MOVES INLAND. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE MOST
DEFINED AND MOVE FURTHEST INLAND ALONG THE NATURE COAST ZONES. A
SLOW INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL PREVENT ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING REACHED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 60 81 64 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 84 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 81 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 79 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 80 51 82 56 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 77 63 82 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...COLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW HAS SET UP AT THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
TO 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z AT THE TAF SITES. THE EASTERLY FLOW
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO STRONG TO GET A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH KAPF. HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY WEAKEN AT
KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST. FEW/SCT 4KFT CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...WITH
SCT/BKN CIRRUS AT 25-30KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
WHERE A DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD SET UP LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL LOWER
THE LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE SEAS IN THE
GULF WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS EVENING TO
6 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL LET THE SCA DROP AT 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PUT UP A SCEC. FOR THE GULF
WATERS...THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SEAS.
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL ALSO BE UNDER A SCEC CONDITIONS
FOR THE WINDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. FOLLOWED HRRR WIND DEPICTION WITH
NW WINDS BECOMING NE SPREADING DOWN THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND
STAYING NE THU WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT, EXCEPT A GULF SEA BREEZE (NW
AT KAPF) BY LATE AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ONLY TRICKY PART
ABOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS THE WIND...WHICH HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATED BY ALL GUIDANCE SINCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM THE EAST...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA.
THEREFORE...A STRONGER-THAN-FORECASTED PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD BE
THE CAUSE OF THESE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BOTH
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
HENCE...WIND WILL PROBABLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH
THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A
DAY OR TWO...AND THEN A STEADY INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA MOVES NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING HUMID AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. AN
INTERESTING DETAIL TO NOTE...LATEST MAV GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS TREND WAS DEPICTED FOR THE FIRST TIME...THEREFORE WILL GIVE
GUIDANCE ONE MORE CHANCE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TO ADJUST
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
IN THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
12 KNOTS AROUND 14-15Z ON FRIDAY.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 68 80 70 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 71 80 73 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 80 69 81 71 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 83 62 86 64 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS TRAILING A DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO NW ONTARIO.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POST SFC FRONTAL SHOWERS WITHIN
THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THESE FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL ENTER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DUE HOWEVER SHOW THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEEPENING OVER SE
MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS AND
CONSIDERING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION SLIDES FROM FLINT TO TOLEDO IN THE
21Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN RAPIDLY FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER OF 40-55 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A VERY
MILD PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO SRN MI. OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...TEMPS OVER MUCH OF SE MI HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW
WILL OPTIMIZE MIXING AND LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME EARLY DAY SUN.
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE 00Z NAM12 AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM...A GOOD PORTION OF SE MI MAY BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB DUE TO THE EARLIER
FROPA. THE ONSET OF MIXING WILL LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY.
THE MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW THE 40-50 KNOT WINDS NOW RESIDING ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DO HOWEVER SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC JET ALIGNED ALONG THE 35TH PARALLEL IS
POISED TO SET IN MOTION A DOWNSTREAM RIPPLE EFFECT THAT WILL BE THE
DOMINATING PLAYER IN THE SENSIBLE WX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERMAL FIELD WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE MODIFICATION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY WHILE THE BEGINNINGS OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ORIENTED IN A
QUASI-ZONAL/WSW FASHION. THIS WILL ENSURE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C
BY DAY`S END FRIDAY, 8-10C BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE
MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER AND MIXING DEPTHS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
WHICH SHOULD EASILY ALLOW EVERYONE TO TOP 60 DEGREES. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
WILL MOST LIKELY HELP ENHANCE DIURNAL CU COVERAGE AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SEE NO ISSUES
WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 62-65. A PASSING SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-69, BUT
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAINED
CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW 40S.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLY ON
SATURDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN BY
BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO MAX TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ENVISION A SCENARIO IN
WHICH MOST LOCATIONS APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES WHILE LAKE
SHADOWED SPOTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
ONGOING WAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW A JET STREAK TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THIS WILL
FACILITATE ONGOING ORGANIZATION OF A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WITH
AN INITIAL WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTUAL POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE KEY AND REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
NEAR GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WARM STABLE FLOW WILL
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN DECK ABOVE
10KFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN/LOWER AS SHOWERS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BRING MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS DURING FROPA...WHICH 00Z NAM12 RUN HAS DELAYED A FEW HOURS.
CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY...25+ KNOTS...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DURING THE DAY. SO...LLWS TONIGHT WILL END AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED OUT BY 13Z-15Z.
FOR DTW...WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MORNING
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (25-3O
KNOTS) REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE BY AFTERNOON
AS COLD FRONT/SHOWERS ENCROACH ON THE AREA.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST 19Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TIED WITH MAIN SFC LOW MOVING
EAST INTO MANITOBA WHILE THERE WAS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NW
NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER MOVING RAPIDLY EAST IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROPELLING SYSTEMS COLD FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. WAA MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 8H WARM FRONT
HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITING MIXING AND KEPT TEMPS ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST SO HAVE HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RETURNS ALONG THIS BAND
OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN REPORTED HITTING THE GROUND AS CLOUD
CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 6KFT AND VERY DRY AIR IN LOW-LVLS OF
ATMOSPHERE AS DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING OVER WRN UPR MI AND EAST WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS
WELL NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT STAY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN. CONCERN IS WE COULD HAVE BROKEN COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO
HANG ONTO A 2-3HR PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FCST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE TO 7C ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CAPE IS
PRETTY MINIMAL (100 J/KG OR LESS). THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO IN THE
MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT 12Z...ONLY INCLUDED
CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.
INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A MILD START TO THE
DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS MAY APPROACH NEAR 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXED LAYER AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH
RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS MAY APPROACH
WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. A TRAILING WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
A SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LOW...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A TERTIARY AND MORE POTENT TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100KT UPPER JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN
MN. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO APPROACHES AT THIS TIME. BEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AND LEAD
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE. A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RUNS HAVE BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE OVER TIME. THIS
LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM FRIDAYS TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS
WI AND LOWER MI. WITH AN OPEN PATH FOR GULF MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD...THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER CHANCES OF A
MODERATE RAIN EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AMPLE SUPPORT SHOULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 110KT UPPER JET COLLOCATED
WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290-295K THETA SFCS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE RESPONSE TO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE ON PRECIP FOR THIS REASON. WHILE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY LIMIT QPF...ENOUGH OTHER FACTORS ARE IN
PLACE TO TO PUT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASED
QPF. ALSO...WEAK SFC TO LOW-LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY WILL REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS UPPER MI...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS NOTED...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL...SO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THAT TIME. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM A COLDER AND WETTER
FORECAST MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND BRINGS ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO WET SNOW AS NOTED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK. THE COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THIS EVENINGY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-40KTS)...BUT THE
ICE COVER ON THE LAKE SHOULD HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MAYBE A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER HIGHER
PLATFORMS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING
BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND (SAT NIGHT INTO SUN)...BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO
PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF/KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
ONCE AGAIN...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERED AROUND FIRE
WEATHER/RED FLAG CONDITIONS. DID EXPAND THE RED FLAG ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.
AT 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB 980 MB SFC LOW SW OF
HUDSON BAY WAS JUST CLEARING THE ALBERT LEA/EAU CLAIRE AREAS. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H7 TROUGH. FARTHER WEST...SHORT
WAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL
BC WILL DROP SE ON NW FLOW INTO MN TONIGHT.
FIRST...THOSE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE H7 TROUGH...THOUGH FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HI-RES MODELS WITH
THESE SHOWERS BEING LARGELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z AS SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HELP SPELL THE DEMISE OF THESE
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE CLOUDS TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING LIKE
24 HOURS AGO...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH FULL
SUNSHINE FOR ALL UNTIL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF BC.
YESTERDAY...WE FOUND OURSELVES SQUARELY IN A WARM ADVECTIVE
PATTERN...WHICH LIMITED MIXING OF BOTH WINDS/DEWPOINTS. TODAY...WE
ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND THOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL LARGELY BE DONE AFTER THIS MORNING...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN
ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE TO MIXING IN ITS WAKE. OUR AIR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE FOUND UP IN NE MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN
YESTERDAY...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS. AS A
RESULT...BLENDED RAP DEWPOINTS /WHICH AGGRESSIVELY MIXES THEM
DOWNWARD TODAY/ INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST TO GET DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH
WHAT IS A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SNOWPACK. FOR HIGHS...WITH H85 TEMPS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY...WENT WITH HIGHS UP IN A SIMILAR AREA
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...OR ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THE 20 TO 25 DEG DROP IN DEWPS
ACTUALLY RESULTS IN HUMIDITIES BEING LOWER TODAY...WITH THE CURRENT
GRIDS DROPPING HUMIDITIES DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH WINDS...FAVORED THEM TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE /IN THIS CASE THE NAM AND GFSLAMP/...AS MIXING IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH OUR FULL POTENTIAL ON
WIND SPEEDS...WHICH IS RIGHT UP AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED.
TONIGHT...WHAT WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE BC WAVE. WHAT IS MUCH
LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. SREF
PROBS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE AT A MEAGER 40% /AS OPPOSED TO
60%-80% FOR WHATS MOVING THROUGH NOW/. BIG PROBLEM FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...VERY
DRY AIR BELOW 10K FT. WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER...BROUGHT POPS DOWN
INTO THE 30S AND CONFINED CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE SREF
SPITS OUT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP IT HAS. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES/VIRGA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST:
-STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD RAIN SIGNAL ON SATURDAY
-VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN SUN-WED
THE WHOLE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
PERTURBATIONS FROM NORMAL ACROSS THE CONUS. UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE
IN MN/WI IN FAVOR OF WARMER SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS RUN 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. THE AMPLIFICATION THAT OCCURS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC IS IN THE FORM OF BUILDING
RIDGES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS ON SUNDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WITH DIFFUSE FORCING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. THE 600-700MB FGEN LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...A NICE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
ACROSS MN/WI WITH STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
EARLY IN MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN`T MOVE VERY FAST AND
HANGS JUST TO OUT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COLD RAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF YOU BUY THE 06Z NAM. BEST LI
NEAR AND MEAGER MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP INTO MN ON SATURDAY
SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME DECENT
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE SET UP.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE LOW IS EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TRACKS MO/IL AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD LEAVE US IN THE COLDER-DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND WE
WOULD MISS MOST OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S MON...TUE...AND
WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT
FALLEN APART DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
KMSP...WINDS ARE VEERING NORTHWEST AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND
INCREASING A BIT. THE INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH A DECREASE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL AN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS BCMG N
5-10 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET TODAY IS ACTUALLY HIGHER
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO FOR SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.
BEING IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING AND DRIER HUMIDITIES. YESTERDAY WE HAD HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO
BE MORE OR LESS 24%-30% WHERE WE HAD THE RFW. FOR TODAY...HUMIDITIES
ARE FORECAST TO GET SOLIDLY DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE MPX AREA. THE BIG LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MEETING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH. AGAIN THE MORE EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD
MAKE THAT EASIER TO ACHIEVE AS WELL. WHEN ALL WAS SAID AND
DONE...HAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE MN
PORTION OF THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...HELD THE EXPANSION TO COUNTIES
WITHIN OUR WIND FAVORED REGIONS OF WRN/SRN MN WHERE HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
333 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AIR DIVES
INTO THE REGION AND PRODUCES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE COLD
AIR MAY ALSO RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE
SPRINKLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE KINL AND KHIB AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN SD ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO AND OUT OF NRN NEB THIS MORNING. AS DEPICTED BY THE
HRRR...LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN MT WILL DROP THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER RAP MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WASHINGTON STATE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS K INDICES WILL RISE TO 25 OT 30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB SHOWN IN
MOST MODELS...THE NAM WAS THE WETTEST SOLN...POPS ARE LIMITED TO 15
TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOCUS PRIMARILY ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION.
FRIDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FORCES WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BACK ATOP
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S BY
MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS...ANY RANGE FIRE START WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BURN OUT
OF CONTROL. DEBATED ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FIRE ZONES FOR FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED NOT TO.
THE REASONING FOR NOT ISSUING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
TWO-FOLD. FIRST...DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA...AND FOR THAT
MATTER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT WIND SPEED OF LESS THAN 25 MPH
DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHTER WIND SEEM REASONABLE AS THE CROSS
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT /WESTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA/ IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS NOT READILY AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN...THIS IS DESPITE DEEP MIXING. TWO...THE MODELS TAP
INTO MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM
RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FORECAST
AREA WIDE. IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WARMER AND DRIER...WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS...RFW/S WOULD BE NEEDED. IF THESE FIRE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED...ZONES 210 AND 204 WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE A WARNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFF THE HIGHS PLAINS AND SLOWLY WORK EAST
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CWA
CONTINUES TO FALL BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY...THUS A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL AFTERNOON. NOTE HOWEVER THAT NEGATIVE LI/S AND WEAK
CAPE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES MAY GO HIGHER. THE MODELS REALLY RAMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. ATTM...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON
A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING IN WELL
DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND. RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO FALL OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY IS MESSY...WITH
SOME OF THE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THUS WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND AND NOT GET TOO
CUTE TRYING TO DEFINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
FALL. TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM CANADA.
THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT THOUGH AS BUILDING HEIGHTS SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA TO FOLLOW. HIGHS SHOULD
WARM TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BEYOND LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LOW AS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LATE IN THE WORKWEEK HOWEVER...SIGNS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY FAVORS MODERATE QPF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THEREFORE THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN AT ANY ONE SITE IS LOW. MIDDLE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY 5SM OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.
WIND IS THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
THE AREA...WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT AND THE SPEED WILL INCREASE
SUDDENLY TO 20-25G30-38KT AND DECREASE AFTER 1 TO 2 HOURS TO
13-18G21-25KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY...A POOL OF DRY SFC AIR ACROSS ERN MT/WRN SD WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 20F IS PROGGED BY THE RAP TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT. WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT JUST
5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE TWO FIRES WERE OR ARE UNDERWAY. RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH BUT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
OVERALL FOREACST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR TWEAKS TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY SOUTHWEST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES NORTH
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH TOWARD THE SD BORDER. FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CWA
SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED/CANCELLED. RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WERE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AND
CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY. HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED
TO OVER 30 PERCENT FAR SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT IS MARGINAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. WILL
NEED ANOTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE HOUR FOR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ONE SHOWER
AROUND 4 PM CDT PRODUCED A 77 MPH GUST AT HETTINGER AND 72 MPH
GUST NEAR BOWMAN...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH NORTHERN TONGUE OF
1000+ J/KG AREA OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE WHICH DECREASED RAPIDLY
AFTERWARD...SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
INCLUDING SOME 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST ND. OTHERWISE...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY THROUGH MOST OF CWA WITH SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
KMOT AND KJMS EXPERIENCING STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500MB RAP HEIGHTS SHOWS
DEEP TROUGH MARCHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH UPSTREAM
RIDGING EXTENDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WEST
COAST. IN THE PAST 24 HOURS THIS RIDGE HAS BROKEN
DOWN...INDICATING A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE DAYS TO
COME. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST ARE SKIRTING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA WESTWARD TO NORTHWEST
MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. ITS A WARM...BREEZY AFTERNOON AS
READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S...BRUSHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN / NORTHERN IA.
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TAP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE MILD
AIRMASS...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50.
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV
ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE GREATEST FORCING EXISTS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOOK AT THE HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTS LIGHT ACTIVITY ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FEEL THAT A
LOT OF THE FORCING/LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATION
INITIALLY...LIMITING QPF. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS PASSAGE DURING
THE NIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY TSTORM POTENTIAL LOCALLY...WITH
INSTABILITY WANING AND MAINLY LIMITED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
I-94.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN...THOUGH ITS AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP TOMORROW...AND SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON FOR MOST. HIGHS MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MANY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE LONG TERM...BUT THE BIG PICTURE
IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...YET MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MAINLY STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE
GFS/NAM/GEM CAMP A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHILE THE
09.12Z ECMWF HAS BETTER SATURATION WHICH PAINTS LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. PUSHED HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF...MAINLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. 09.12Z GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF
THE AREA...BUT MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER
WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF AND THE NAM TO SOME DEGREE HOLD THE COLD FRONT
BACK THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ON THE
BOUNDARY. AS THIS NORTHERN / INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT...A SECONDARY SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTING
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WAVE EJECTS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA ON
THE COLDER...NORTHWEST FRINGE. THIS TREND SEEMS TO HAVE CONTINUED
IN THE 09.12Z GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A
CHARLES CITY IOWA TO LA CROSSE TO NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE.
SOME REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /0.75 TO 1.5 IN/ ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND TRIBUTARIES.
TEMPERATURE WISE...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TAD WARMER...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND THEN A FEW DEGREES LESS ON SATURDAY.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE...FALLING TO AROUND -10C
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS ARE MID TO
UPPER 50S/MID 30S...SO GET EXCITED FOR ANOTHER STRETCH OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS MN AND WILL CROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IT WAS
WEDNESDAY. OTHER CONCERN IS SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE PASSING
FRONT. RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS...BUT NOT MUCH MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND. MAINTAINED THE VCSH IN THE TAFS...BUT NO MVFR RESTRICTION
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SEVERAL GRASS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED OVER A PART OF WESTERN WI IN THE
PAST 3-5 HOURS. ONE LARGE FIRE OVER NORTH END OF FORT MCCOY CAN BE
EASILY SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FIRE ALSO APPARENT
NEAR FOUR CORNERS WITH SUBTLE CLUES ON BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE.
ANOTHER FIRE REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT NEAR NORWALK. WITH
SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE...AND HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CREWS TO GET AHEAD OF THE FIRES.
MEANWHILE...RED FLAG WARNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. ANY
RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AGAIN BUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER
SO FIRE RISK PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS HIGH...BUT STILL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ZT
LONG TERM......ZT
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1103 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERN OF THE DAY REMAINS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCE BY SEA BREEZE. NY
BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS OF 25 MPH GUST
30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETA-E RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETA-E SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION. FCST INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN
EARLY WED MRNG. TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT
CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT
BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15-25 KT AND
GUSTS 20-30 KT...PARTICULARLY AT KJFK WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 KT
EXPECTED LATE. FCST GUSTS AT KBDR/KGON COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER
THAN FCST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SW FLOW AT 2 KFT AGL
INCREASES TO 50-55 KT.
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDS.
.FRI NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO TERMINALS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. S WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND AGAIN AT NIGHT. S WINDS G20-25 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE
20S...BEFORE IMPROVING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AFTER 18Z...WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF OVERLAPPING
20% RH VALUES AND GUSTS IN THE 20S...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ENHANCED RISK. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
ENHANCE BY SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS
IN WINDS OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT KJFK/KLGA.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR A
FEW HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR COULD STILL
OCCUR FOR AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME.
LEFT RAIN OUT OF KEWR/KJFK THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...EXPECTING HIGHEST
CHANCES AFTER THAT TIMEFRAME. PUT -RA IN FOR KSWF AS RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 25 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 20 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUN-MON...VFR...S WIND GUSTS 20-25KT DURING THE AFT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
654 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL SKC. WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
ENHANCE BY SEA BREEZE. NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS
IN WINDS OF 25 MPH GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW (WATER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETAE RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETAE SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GOMEX. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND
SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. FCST
INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN EARLY WED MRNG.
TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SPEEDS PEAK AT 15
TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS AT
KJFK/KLGA.
INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR A
FEW HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. WIND SHEAR COULD STILL
OCCUR FOR AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 19-22Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 25 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WINDS 19Z-23Z COULD REACH 20 KT AT
TIMES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGHER
SUSTAINED SPEED THAN GUSTS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NGT...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NGT.
.SAT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUN-MON...VFR...S WIND GUSTS 20-25KT DURING THE AFT HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST INCREASE TO 25 MPH
BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES RH VALUES TO 40%
OR HIGHER BY 6 PM. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS PLANNED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LN/NV
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS SOME CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR LLWS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH
45-50 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. SFC OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS THAT CONDITIONS ARE TRANSITIONING FROM LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AS SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE
BEEN ON THE RISE. INCREASED MIXING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z WILL LEAD TO
A RAPID TRANSITION TO STRONG SW WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH MBS AROUND
18Z AND METRO DETROIT AROUND 21Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
FOR DTW...EXPECT A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM SOUTH THIS
MORNING TO S-SW BY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 21Z WILL DROP WIND SPEEDS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY VEER
TO THE WEST.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS TRAILING A DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO NW ONTARIO.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POST SFC FRONTAL SHOWERS WITHIN
THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THESE FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL ENTER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DUE HOWEVER SHOW THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEEPENING OVER SE
MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS AND
CONSIDERING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION SLIDES FROM FLINT TO TOLEDO IN THE
21Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN RAPIDLY FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER OF 40-55 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A VERY
MILD PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO SRN MI. OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...TEMPS OVER MUCH OF SE MI HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW
WILL OPTIMIZE MIXING AND LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME EARLY DAY SUN.
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE 00Z NAM12 AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM...A GOOD PORTION OF SE MI MAY BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB DUE TO THE EARLIER
FROPA. THE ONSET OF MIXING WILL LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY.
THE MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW THE 40-50 KNOT WINDS NOW RESIDING ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DO HOWEVER SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS.
LONG TERM...
THE STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC JET ALIGNED ALONG THE 35TH PARALLEL IS
POISED TO SET IN MOTION A DOWNSTREAM RIPPLE EFFECT THAT WILL BE THE
DOMINATING PLAYER IN THE SENSIBLE WX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERMAL FIELD WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE MODIFICATION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY WHILE THE BEGINNINGS OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ORIENTED IN A
QUASI-ZONAL/WSW FASHION. THIS WILL ENSURE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C
BY DAY`S END FRIDAY, 8-10C BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE
MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER AND MIXING DEPTHS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
WHICH SHOULD EASILY ALLOW EVERYONE TO TOP 60 DEGREES. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
WILL MOST LIKELY HELP ENHANCE DIURNAL CU COVERAGE AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SEE NO ISSUES
WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 62-65. A PASSING SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-69, BUT
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAINED
CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW 40S.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLY ON
SATURDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN BY
BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO MAX TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ENVISION A SCENARIO IN
WHICH MOST LOCATIONS APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES WHILE LAKE
SHADOWED SPOTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
ONGOING WAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW A JET STREAK TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THIS WILL
FACILITATE ONGOING ORGANIZATION OF A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WITH
AN INITIAL WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTUAL POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE KEY AND REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
NEAR GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WARM STABLE FLOW WILL
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
937 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. A COLD
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE NORTHLAND...AND A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL
RESULT TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME BROKEN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA MID-LATE MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWEST AREAS...THEN PROGRESSING EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. A COLD
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE NORTHLAND...AND A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL
RESULT TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME BROKEN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA MID-LATE MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWEST AREAS...THEN PROGRESSING EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
ONCE AGAIN...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CENTERED AROUND FIRE
WEATHER/RED FLAG CONDITIONS. DID EXPAND THE RED FLAG ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.
AT 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB 980 MB SFC LOW SW OF
HUDSON BAY WAS JUST CLEARING THE ALBERT LEA/EAU CLAIRE AREAS. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H7 TROUGH. FARTHER WEST...SHORT
WAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL
BC WILL DROP SE ON NW FLOW INTO MN TONIGHT.
FIRST...THOSE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE H7 TROUGH...THOUGH FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HI-RES MODELS WITH
THESE SHOWERS BEING LARGELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z AS SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HELP SPELL THE DEMISE OF THESE
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE CLOUDS TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING LIKE
24 HOURS AGO...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH FULL
SUNSHINE FOR ALL UNTIL CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF BC.
YESTERDAY...WE FOUND OURSELVES SQUARELY IN A WARM ADVECTIVE
PATTERN...WHICH LIMITED MIXING OF BOTH WINDS/DEWPOINTS. TODAY...WE
ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND THOUGH THE COLD ADVECTION
WILL LARGELY BE DONE AFTER THIS MORNING...WE WILL STILL HAVE AN
ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE TO MIXING IN ITS WAKE. OUR AIR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE FOUND UP IN NE MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN
YESTERDAY...WHERE DEWPOINTS MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS. AS A
RESULT...BLENDED RAP DEWPOINTS /WHICH AGGRESSIVELY MIXES THEM
DOWNWARD TODAY/ INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST TO GET DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S OUTSIDE OF AREAS WITH
WHAT IS A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SNOWPACK. FOR HIGHS...WITH H85 TEMPS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY...WENT WITH HIGHS UP IN A SIMILAR AREA
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...OR ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THOUGH 10
TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THE 20 TO 25 DEG DROP IN DEWPS
ACTUALLY RESULTS IN HUMIDITIES BEING LOWER TODAY...WITH THE CURRENT
GRIDS DROPPING HUMIDITIES DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH WINDS...FAVORED THEM TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE /IN THIS CASE THE NAM AND GFSLAMP/...AS MIXING IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH OUR FULL POTENTIAL ON
WIND SPEEDS...WHICH IS RIGHT UP AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED.
TONIGHT...WHAT WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE BC WAVE. WHAT IS MUCH
LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP WITH IT. SREF
PROBS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE AT A MEAGER 40% /AS OPPOSED TO
60%-80% FOR WHATS MOVING THROUGH NOW/. BIG PROBLEM FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE SAME AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...VERY
DRY AIR BELOW 10K FT. WITH MODELS TRENDING DRIER...BROUGHT POPS DOWN
INTO THE 30S AND CONFINED CHANCE POPS TO CENTRAL MN...WHERE THE SREF
SPITS OUT WHAT LITTLE PRECIP IT HAS. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES/VIRGA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST:
-STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD RAIN SIGNAL ON SATURDAY
-VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRONOUNCED COOL DOWN SUN-WED
THE WHOLE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
PERTURBATIONS FROM NORMAL ACROSS THE CONUS. UNFORTUNATELY...THOSE
IN MN/WI IN FAVOR OF WARMER SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS RUN 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. THE AMPLIFICATION THAT OCCURS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC IS IN THE FORM OF BUILDING
RIDGES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEFORE THE COLD AIR RETURNS ON SUNDAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WITH DIFFUSE FORCING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI. THE 600-700MB FGEN LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...A NICE WEST-EAST ORIENTATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
ACROSS MN/WI WITH STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
EARLY IN MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DOESN`T MOVE VERY FAST AND
HANGS JUST TO OUT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COLD RAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF YOU BUY THE 06Z NAM. BEST LI
NEAR AND MEAGER MUCAPE VALUES ALSO NOSE UP INTO MN ON SATURDAY
SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN MN AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME DECENT
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE SET UP.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE LOW IS EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND TRACKS MO/IL AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD LEAVE US IN THE COLDER-DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND WE
WOULD MISS MOST OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S MON...TUE...AND
WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NOT A WHOLE LOT CHANGED WITH THE 12Z TAFS OTHER THAN TO BACK THE
WINDS TO A MORE WRLY DIR ACROSS CENTRAL MN TODAY. WILL AGAIN SEE
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT ALL
TERMINALS DRY TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO SUFFER FROM
THE SAME PROBLEM THIS PAST EVENINGS WAVE DID...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME -SHRA TONIGHT...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN
TAFS AT THE MOMENT.
KMSP...VFR WILL RULE THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH WIND GUSTS PICKING
BACK UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SOME -SHRA BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z...BUT DRY AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST HAD...6-10K FT CIGS WITH MAINLY VIRGA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET TODAY IS ACTUALLY HIGHER
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO FOR SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.
BEING IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING AND DRIER HUMIDITIES. YESTERDAY WE HAD HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO
BE MORE OR LESS 24%-30% WHERE WE HAD THE RFW. FOR TODAY...HUMIDITIES
ARE FORECAST TO GET SOLIDLY DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR
ALL BUT THE NRN AND ERN FRINGES OF THE MPX AREA. THE BIG LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MEETING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WILL BE GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH. AGAIN THE MORE EFFICIENT MIXING SHOULD
MAKE THAT EASIER TO ACHIEVE AS WELL. WHEN ALL WAS SAID AND
DONE...HAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE MN
PORTION OF THE MPX CWA. HOWEVER...HELD THE EXPANSION TO COUNTIES
WITHIN OUR WIND FAVORED REGIONS OF WRN/SRN MN WHERE HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN SD ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO AND OUT OF NRN NEB THIS MORNING. AS DEPICTED BY THE
HRRR...LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN MT WILL DROP THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER RAP MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WASHINGTON STATE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS K INDICES WILL RISE TO 25 OT 30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB SHOWN IN
MOST MODELS...THE NAM WAS THE WETTEST SOLN...POPS ARE LIMITED TO 15
TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOCUS PRIMARILY ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION.
FRIDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FORCES WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BACK ATOP
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S BY
MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS...ANY RANGE FIRE START WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BURN OUT
OF CONTROL. DEBATED ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FIRE ZONES FOR FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED NOT TO.
THE REASONING FOR NOT ISSUING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
TWO-FOLD. FIRST...DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA...AND FOR THAT
MATTER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT WIND SPEED OF LESS THAN 25 MPH
DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHTER WIND SEEM REASONABLE AS THE CROSS
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT /WESTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA/ IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS NOT READILY AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN...THIS IS DESPITE DEEP MIXING. TWO...THE MODELS TAP
INTO MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM
RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FORECAST
AREA WIDE. IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WARMER AND DRIER...WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS...RFW/S WOULD BE NEEDED. IF THESE FIRE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED...ZONES 210 AND 204 WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE A WARNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFF THE HIGHS PLAINS AND SLOWLY WORK EAST
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CWA
CONTINUES TO FALL BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY...THUS A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL AFTERNOON. NOTE HOWEVER THAT NEGATIVE LI/S AND WEAK
CAPE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES MAY GO HIGHER. THE MODELS REALLY RAMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. ATTM...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON
A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING IN WELL
DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND. RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO FALL OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY IS MESSY...WITH
SOME OF THE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THUS WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND AND NOT GET TOO
CUTE TRYING TO DEFINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
FALL. TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM CANADA.
THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT THOUGH AS BUILDING HEIGHTS SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA TO FOLLOW. HIGHS SHOULD
WARM TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BEYOND LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LOW AS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LATE IN THE WORKWEEK HOWEVER...SIGNS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY FAVORS MODERATE QPF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/SHRA ACROSS NRN NEB MOVES E-SE THIS
MORNING AND EXITS THE FCST AREA.
A SECOND DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVES INTO WRN NEB
THIS EVENING. STORM ACTIVIY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED
OVER NCNTL NEB AFTER 06Z. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THESE STORMS EXITING
THE FCST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WE ARE GETTING AN EXCELLENT SIGNAL
FROM THE RAP MODEL WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 AND HIGHWAY 83 AT 04Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY...A POOL OF DRY SFC AIR ACROSS ERN MT/WRN SD WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 20F IS PROGGED BY THE RAP TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT. WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT JUST
5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE TWO FIRES WERE OR ARE UNDERWAY. RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH BUT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
313 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERN OF THE DAY REMAINS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE.
NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS OF 25 MPH
GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH WATER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETA-E RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETA-E SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION. FCST INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN
EARLY WED MRNG. TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT
CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT
BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED.
DELAYED STRONGEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT...AND JUST
OVER 30 KT AT KJFK...UNTIL 20Z...AND THEY SHOULD LAST UNTIL 23Z-
24Z. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW 40 KT CONTINUES AT 1 KFT AGL
THIS EVENING...THEN OVERNIGHT AS SW FLOW AT 2 KFT AGL INCREASES
TO 45-50 KT.
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS HIGH ENOUGH ONLY AT KSWF.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SMOKE ALOFT DUE TO BRUSH FIRE OVER CENTRAL
NJ COULD LIMIT SLANT RANGE VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIR BRIEFLY
BACKED TO 160 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SMOKE ALOFT DUE TO BRUSH FIRE OVER CENTRAL
NJ COD LIMIT SLANT RANGE VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIR BRIEFLY
BACKED TO 160 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI AFTERNOON...SCT SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO TERMINALS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE.
.SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS LIKELY.
.MON...ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GIVE WAY QUICKLY
TO VFR DURING THE MORNING. S WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS LIKELY.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
.TUE...RAIN LIKELY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE. EVENING COLD FROPA FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS G20-25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE
20S...BEFORE IMPROVING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AFTER 18Z...WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF OVERLAPPING
20% RH VALUES AND GUSTS IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENHANCED RISK. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
108 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG IT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKENING FRONT PASSES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CONCERN OF THE DAY REMAINS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IS ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE.
NY BIGHT / AMBROSE JET LOCAL EFFECT RESULTS IN WINDS OF 25 MPH
GUST 30 MPH FOR THE ROCKAWAYS. RAP SOUNDS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS WITH 35 TO 40 KT AT 500 FT AGL.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S BEFORE FALLING WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH WATER TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH PCPN. NAM AND CMC ARE
MOSTLY DRY THOUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS BACK DOWN TOWARDS TO A LIGHT
RAIN LIGHT SCENARIO. GFS REMAINS HIGH WITH 1/4 - 1/2 INCH. HAVE
UTILIZE 21Z SREF RELATIVE FREQUENCY DATA FOR ORIENTATION OF POP
FIELD AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS KEEPING CHC. HAVE
USE LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR PCPN
WORDING.
USED BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER FAVORING THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COOL FRONT PASSING FRI NGT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE CWA. THE UPR
SUPPORT WILL HAVE ALREADY EXITED THE MARITIMES...SO THERE IS LITTLE
UPR SUPPORT OR EVEN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP IT GOING. THE
BOUNDARY MAY EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA. REGARDLESS...THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THE
THETA-E RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE SAT SO WENT WITH A DRY FCST SAT. THE
12Z ECMWF HAD INDICATED A SLUG OF RAIN SAT...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS
COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN THEREFORE THE DRY FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE BRINGS TEMPS CLOSE TO 70 ACROSS THE W AND
INTERIOR. SIMILARLY MILD TEMPS ON SUN AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND IS FORCED NWD. INCREASING THETA-E SO AN ISOLD SHRA
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WRN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDREDS OF SBCAPE. STABLE ALONG THE COASTS
AND MOST OF SRN CT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARM ON MON ALONG AND W OF
THE HUDSON WITH 70S LIKELY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS YOU GO E ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR
60 MONTAUK AND GROTON. THE MID LVLS ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY SB
INSTABILITY ON MON. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 84 DEGREES
NEEDED TO GET A CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL THE UPR TROF GETS CLOSER. FCST DRY FOR ALL
OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SLIVER OF THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY. THE
UPR TROF IS SLOW MOVING AND THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL THE WAY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND SUGGESTS A 3 INCH RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION. FCST INDICATES 50 POP TUE INTO TUE NGT...WINDING DOWN
EARLY WED MRNG. TEMPS COOLER ON TUE WITH THE RAIN. LOWS TUE NGT
CLOSER TO THE FASTER GFS WHICH MEANS COLDER. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...EXPECT LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FAIR WX IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THIS MAY NOT
BE TIL WED NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15-25 KT AND
GUSTS 20-30 KT...PARTICULARLY AT KJFK WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 KT
EXPECTED LATE. FCST GUSTS AT KBDR/KGON COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER
THAN FCST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT THEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SW FLOW AT 2 KFT AGL
INCREASES TO 50-55 KT.
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI...SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDS.
.FRI NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO TERMINALS.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. S WINDS
G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AND AGAIN AT NIGHT. S WINDS G20-25 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHEST WINDS
WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE ROCKAWAYS.
WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT LINGERING SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EXPECTED
IN TO SAT. ALL AREAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO CRANK UP ON SUN. SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
ON THE OCEAN THRU AT LEAST TUE. 25 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
OTHER WATERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE
20S...BEFORE IMPROVING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE AFTER 18Z...WITH DECENT MIXING RESULTING
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF OVERLAPPING
20% RH VALUES AND GUSTS IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENHANCED RISK. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS FORESEEN THOUGH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN TUE INTO WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER KWO-35 IN NEW YORK CITY CONTINUES
TO BROADCAST. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/SEARS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NONE. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MIDDAY HOUR. AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONT...THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL
PENETRATE. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THIS SHEDS SOME DOUBT
THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TO PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH THIS THINKING...I THINK IT WILL
BE HARD TO GET THE NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT INTO ORD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
MDW AS WELL. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...I WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE ORD TAF...BUT WILL KEEP THE
MENTION AT KMDW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE STRONGEST. THE
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR RAIN IS VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD AND MIDWAY STILL
INDICATE DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND CLOUD BASES STILL REMAIN VERY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY THEN SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC RA DURING THE DAY. MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SCHC -RASN.
WEDNESDAY...SCHC -RA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT COMING UP THIS WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM A
RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP LOW OVER NERN CANADA. AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CHICAGO TO PERU AND WAS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIPPING THROUGH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BNDRY WILL
CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF
30F...AND PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCT SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRFARW INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE
PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER FOR THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT PCPN WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SFC UNLESS THE
LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN...WHICH IS LOOKING QUESTIONABLE...BUT WITH
AMPLE DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST OF FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SFC LOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE SWLY TO SLY...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME WINDS COULD SHIFT JUST EAST OF SOUTH AND THE NRN IL
SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SEE SOME LAKE COOLING. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
A PACIFIC SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A NRN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE TOTAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE 2
SYSTEMS WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE
NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW IT`S PROGRESSION
AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS AND
LIFTS NEWD SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AS THE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE STRINGING OUT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
SWWD ACROSS SRN LAKE MI/NEN IL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MEAN SYSTEM MAKING LITTLE EWD
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION OFF OF A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PWAT AIR OVER THE
AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT INDICATORS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOST
STATIONARY OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. WHILE THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE A STORM TOTAL QPF WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GARY TO PONTIAC COULD SEE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SFC BASED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE RELATIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MUCH OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE ORGANIZED AROUND THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES RIPPLING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SETTING UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF FROM HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BY
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT
LEAST FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING MODERATING ONLY SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WITH THE TYPE OF COLD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE PLANTING SEASON IS
NOT HERE JUST YET FOR COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA IN PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AS THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE ERN
CONUS...THERE SHOULD BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NONE.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MIDDAY HOUR. AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONT...THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP...AND IF IT DOES HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL
PENETRATE. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THIS SHEDS SOME DOUBT
THAT A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TO PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH THIS THINKING...I THINK IT WILL
BE HARD TO GET THE NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT INTO ORD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
MDW AS WELL. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...I WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE ORD TAF...BUT WILL KEEP THE
MENTION AT KMDW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE STRONGEST. THE
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR RAIN IS VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD AND MIDWAY STILL
INDICATE DRY LOWER LEVELS...AND CLOUD BASES STILL REMAIN VERY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH FOR ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT...MVFR LIKELY.
SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY THEN SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR LIKELY.
MONDAY...CHC RA DURING THE DAY. MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SCHC -RASN.
WEDNESDAY...SCHC -RA.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CDT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ELONGATES. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRETCH FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH
EAST...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND QUICKLY SLIDE EAST TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO A STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MEANWHILE THE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TIGHTEN AND MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES SUN FOR THE NORTH HALF. THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH...AS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE NORTH WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY.
A SECOND LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY...AND THINKING LOW
END GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
121 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE HIGH END GUSTS PEAKING WITHIN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH 21Z. COLD FRONT STEADILY TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BRIEF INCREASE IN
FRONTAL FORCING WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
RETAIN A HIGHER BASED VFR CEILING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EASING IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND GUST
FREQUENCY WITH TIME AS MIXING CEASES.
FOR DTW...GUSTY CONDITIONS HOLD FIRM AT A 180-200 DIRECTION THROUGH
22Z, THEN SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A
CHANCE OF VFR LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 317 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS TRAILING A DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO NW ONTARIO.
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POST SFC FRONTAL SHOWERS WITHIN
THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THESE FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL ENTER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS DUE HOWEVER SHOW THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEEPENING OVER SE
MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET STREAK. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SRN MI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS AND
CONSIDERING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION SLIDES FROM FLINT TO TOLEDO IN THE
21Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN RAPIDLY FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER OF 40-55 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING A VERY
MILD PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO SRN MI. OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS...TEMPS OVER MUCH OF SE MI HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW
WILL OPTIMIZE MIXING AND LEAD TO VERY MILD TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME EARLY DAY SUN.
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE 00Z NAM12 AND RUC SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
YESTERDAY MAX TEMPS UPSTREAM...A GOOD PORTION OF SE MI MAY BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB DUE TO THE EARLIER
FROPA. THE ONSET OF MIXING WILL LEAD TO RATHER GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY.
THE MIXING WILL NOT ALLOW THE 40-50 KNOT WINDS NOW RESIDING ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DO HOWEVER SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GROWS.
LONG TERM...
THE STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC JET ALIGNED ALONG THE 35TH PARALLEL IS
POISED TO SET IN MOTION A DOWNSTREAM RIPPLE EFFECT THAT WILL BE THE
DOMINATING PLAYER IN THE SENSIBLE WX FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERMAL FIELD WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE MODIFICATION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ON FRIDAY WHILE THE BEGINNINGS OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ORIENTED IN A
QUASI-ZONAL/WSW FASHION. THIS WILL ENSURE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SPELL H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C
BY DAY`S END FRIDAY, 8-10C BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEREFORE BE
MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER AND MIXING DEPTHS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 800MB
WHICH SHOULD EASILY ALLOW EVERYONE TO TOP 60 DEGREES. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND
WILL MOST LIKELY HELP ENHANCE DIURNAL CU COVERAGE AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SEE NO ISSUES
WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 62-65. A PASSING SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-69, BUT
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAINED
CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW 40S.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL WARM THE COLUMN CONSIDERABLY ON
SATURDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN BY
BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR TO MAX TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ENVISION A SCENARIO IN
WHICH MOST LOCATIONS APPROACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES WHILE LAKE
SHADOWED SPOTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
ONGOING WAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW A JET STREAK TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THIS WILL
FACILITATE ONGOING ORGANIZATION OF A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WITH
AN INITIAL WAVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTUAL POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BE KEY AND REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
NEAR GALES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WARM STABLE FLOW WILL
TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS TAKING SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KYQT TO KIWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 07Z AND IT WILL EXIT OUR WI ZONES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA BY
12Z. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON SOME CLOUDS
OVER MANITOBA UNDER COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE. WE HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA DRY TODAY...BUT
DID INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS LATE TODAY OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE
NAM AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PICK UP ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATE. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BY MID DAY...AND WE INCREASED WINDS A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
FIFTIES FOR MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/WAA. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER TWENTIES
TO MID THIRTIES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE/FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT TO THE LOWER FIFTIES TO
AROUND SIXTY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GRT LAKES
REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING..ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC-850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR CAN BE MAINTAINED IN THE
FACE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION..THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX. DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS AT PRESENT..WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW..ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH..PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID..AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAKE A RUN NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL RISK OF SOME
THUNDER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM..A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS A LARGER SCALE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LAKES..BRINGING A RETURN TO 850 TEMPS IN THE -5
TO -15C RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WED TIME PERIOD. AS SEVERAL
LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROFS ROTATE THRU THE FLOW..EACH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS..WITH SFC PTYPE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/WARMTH.
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMETIME AROUND THUR/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SPECIFICALLY IN THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 33 55 33 / 10 20 30 30
INL 49 30 51 29 / 20 20 30 40
BRD 58 36 62 37 / 10 30 20 50
HYR 56 32 57 35 / 10 30 40 30
ASX 52 32 53 33 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front that is currently near a Springfield, IL to St. Louis to
Jefferson City line will continue to move southeast this evening.
The models show this front slowing down over the southern CWA
tonight. The RAP does show an increase in low level moisture
moisture convergence along and ahead of the front the next few hours
at the same time that the HRRR depicts scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern half of the CWA. Have
maintained chance pops for tonight. MOS lows tonight are in good
agreement and generally followed.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
(Friday - Saturday night)
Cold front is expected to be just south of CWA early Friday morning and
will become quasi-stationary by afternoon. Chance PoPs will be confined to
along/just north of aformentioned boundary for Friday. Temperatures will be
cooler on Friday by about 10 degrees for most locations behind the cold front.
Quasi-stationary front is expected to lift back north as a warm front Friday
night as lee-side cyclogenesis commences and mid/upper-level heights rise.
Expect Saturday to be mainly dry and kept dry forecast going as very strong
cap is forecast to exist according to NWP model soundings. In addition...
large-scale forcing for ascent looks fairly weak across the area indicating
cap will likely hold.
Unseasonably warm conditions are expected on Saturday night ahead of
approaching cold front. Went a couple of degrees above guidance as
CWA will remain in warm sector with increasing clouds and south winds
around 10 knots.
(Sunday - Sunday night)
An unsettled and wet period is forecast for Sunday/Sunday night as cold front
moves across the area. Negatively tilted shortwave trough will eject toward
the mid-Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday evening with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected with cold frontal passage. Could also be some
strong thunderstorms through Sunday evening with ~30kts 0-6km shear and
modest instability though higher severe weather threat should exist over
the lower Mississippi Valley where much greater instability will reside.
Temperatures on Sunday look to be quite difficult as degree of cloudiness
and frontal passage timing are a bit uncertain. Leaned warmer than guidance
a couple of degrees for now based on current projections of fropa as most
of CWA would be ahead of front through early afternoon at least.
(Monday - Thursday)
Light rain may linger across portions of the area on Monday as secondary
shortwave trough moves southeastward. Temperatures with clouds and rain
chances along with strong CAA at low levels will yield a cold and raw
early/mid April day. Forecast highs in the upper 40s north to mid 50s far south
still look on track.
Two cold nights with near freezing low temperatures appear possible Monday
night as well as Tuesday night...especially for northern areas. If lows
do dip into the upper 20s...frost/freeze headlines may become necessary
as vegetation begins to grow/bloom...especially over the southern CWA.
Remainder of extended looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to
near normal by Thursday.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014
Cold front has moved through Quincy and will soon move through
Columbia. These sites will stay dry. Farther south, expect that
the front will move through the St. Louis TAF sites about the same
time that scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop
along it between 21-00Z. Have left it out of KSTL and KSUS, and
left VCSH in the KCPS TAF. Expect VFR conditions through the
period as the lower atmoshere is very dry. Any thunderstorms will
be capable of producing gusty winds. Gusty southwest winds ahead
of the front will veer north and then decrease has high pressure
moves in from the north, and becomes light and variable overnight.
Specifics for KSTL: Expect a cold front to move across the TAF
site around 22Z causing the west winds to shift northwesterly.
Then expect winds to decrease and gradually veer easterly
overnight. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the front, but think this development will be south of KSTL.
Britt
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 49 70 52 79 / 30 20 10 10
Quincy 41 68 48 76 / 10 0 10 10
Columbia 45 69 51 79 / 10 5 10 10
Jefferson City 46 69 53 79 / 20 20 10 10
Salem 50 67 50 74 / 30 30 10 10
Farmington 51 68 54 75 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
105 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SRN SD ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO AND OUT OF NRN NEB THIS MORNING. AS DEPICTED BY THE
HRRR...LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN MT WILL DROP THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER RAP MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN WASHINGTON STATE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS K INDICES WILL RISE TO 25 OT 30 WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB SHOWN IN
MOST MODELS...THE NAM WAS THE WETTEST SOLN...POPS ARE LIMITED TO 15
TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOCUS PRIMARILY ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION.
FRIDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FORCES WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BACK ATOP
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S BY
MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS...ANY RANGE FIRE START WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BURN OUT
OF CONTROL. DEBATED ON ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FIRE ZONES FOR FRIDAY...BUT DECIDED NOT TO.
THE REASONING FOR NOT ISSUING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
TWO-FOLD. FIRST...DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA...AND FOR THAT
MATTER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT WIND SPEED OF LESS THAN 25 MPH
DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHTER WIND SEEM REASONABLE AS THE CROSS
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT /WESTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NEBRASKA/ IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT IS NOT READILY AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN...THIS IS DESPITE DEEP MIXING. TWO...THE MODELS TAP
INTO MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM
RH SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FORECAST
AREA WIDE. IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WARMER AND DRIER...WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS...RFW/S WOULD BE NEEDED. IF THESE FIRE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED...ZONES 210 AND 204 WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE A WARNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OFF THE HIGHS PLAINS AND SLOWLY WORK EAST
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THE CWA
CONTINUES TO FALL BETWEEN STORMS SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY...THUS A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL AFTERNOON. NOTE HOWEVER THAT NEGATIVE LI/S AND WEAK
CAPE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD FRONT POISED TO
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL...TEMPERATURES MAY GO HIGHER. THE MODELS REALLY RAMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT. ATTM...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON
A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING IN WELL
DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND. RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO FALL OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY IS MESSY...WITH
SOME OF THE DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THUS WILL GENERALLY ACCEPT THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND AND NOT GET TOO
CUTE TRYING TO DEFINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW/RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
FALL. TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM CANADA.
THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT THOUGH AS BUILDING HEIGHTS SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA TO FOLLOW. HIGHS SHOULD
WARM TUESDAY BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BEYOND LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LOW AS AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LATE IN THE WORKWEEK HOWEVER...SIGNS ARE
POINTING TO A POTENTIAL TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY FAVORS MODERATE QPF
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT TAF SITES WILL NOT BE
IMPACTED...THUS NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS...IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
TODAY...A POOL OF DRY SFC AIR ACROSS ERN MT/WRN SD WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 20F IS PROGGED BY THE RAP TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN HALF
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND
20 PERCENT. WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT JUST
5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CUSTER COUNTY WHERE TWO FIRES WERE OR ARE UNDERWAY. RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH BUT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ/MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
628 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS AT THIS TIME AS LOW
LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING JUST A BRIEF SHOT OF
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
QUICK RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAINFREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR... THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
359 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY...BEFORE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS COMBINING WITH RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT STRONG MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
YIELD WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEASTERN LAKESHORE OF LAKE ERIE
WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY AN ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE ICE-COVERED LAKE WATERS.
EXPECT THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE A COLD FRONT TAKES
AIM ON THE REGION AND BRINGS A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 40 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. 850 MB
TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 0C WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...THROUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...WHERE SOME SPOTS MAY TICKLE THE 60
DEGREE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING WARMTH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE.
A BROAD BASED TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUMP UP A RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST...WHICH IN TURN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS OF 2C FRIDAY EVENING WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS OF 70 TO 75...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE 60S.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING WELL
SOUTH OF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A SECOND FRONT WILL
WEAK AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ON SATURDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS HGTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES SOME
10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
BOOSTING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THE USUAL WARM SPOTS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE LOWER 70S.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER ACTIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL
HELP TO GENERATE SOME WAVES ALONG THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AT LEAST 8C OVER
OUR REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 40S. THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE RAINFREE WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT
A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK SO WILL USE LOW CHC
POPS LATE.
A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXIT TO
OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF VERY MILD
AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES. H85 TEMPS OF 12C OVER
THE WRN COUNTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY
FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH UPPER 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO
THE DRIER AND SOLUTION BEING ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BY THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS STILL EXIST IN
THE OUTPUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A VERY ENERGETIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
ENERGIZED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL DEVELOP A STRONG WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A SUB-1000MB LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...H85 TEMPS OF 12C
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL EASILY
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S...WITH MID 70S FOUND IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS. AS FAR AS RAIN GOES...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN GRADUALLY PUSHING TO
OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY DINNERTIME.
THE RAIN WILL BASICALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
LIFTS BY TO OUR NORTH...AT WHICH TIME IT WILL EASE ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EQUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
THE RR QUAD OF A 130KT H25 JET. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE EVENING...AND WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE RAIN IN ITS WAKE...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SFC WAVES
PROLONGING THE PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE POURING IN BEHIND
THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO A
BIT OF WET SNOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME
25 TO 35 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A
VIEWING OF A TOTAL ECLIPSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STAY
TUNED.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE US WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-40
KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR... THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
252 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONS
WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...FAIR AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IN
A LAYER CENTERED ALONG 800 MB WAS TRIPPING OFF A FEW 6000 FT
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE FULLY EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSOLVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE PRE-DAWN AND
DAYBREAK HOURS...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS.
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS...AND 100 METER WINDS PER LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW SSW FLOW AT 20 KT SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SFC.
THIS WILL OFF-SET IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT GOOD TEMPERATURE
DROPS EXPECTED STILL THE SAME UNDER A CLEAR DOME...WITH MINIMUMS
SEVERAL DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES...COOLEST INLAND AND
MILDEST BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SHUNT A COLD FRONT AND IT WILL STALL ALONG THE VIRGINIA
AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND AND LOWER TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST WITH A TRUE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY...PURE
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ON
SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE LATER WILL KEEP MODIFIED
MARINE ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT ON SUNDAY FOR A SUNNY AND MILD DAY. BOTH PROGRESS EASTWARD
ON MONDAY ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MODELS HINTING AT JUST ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MORE PRECIPITOUSLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT ONLY
DOES SW FLOW INCREASE BUT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT SHOULD COUPLE WITH THE CONTINUED
MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE PVA. BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING
IN SOON THEREAFTER. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT CENTER INDUCES A WAVE
OFF THE COAST. IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND TO BRING ANOTHER
BATCH OF RAIN BUT WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT THE 20/SLIGHT FOR NOW
AS IN PREV FCST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY. COOLER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE
SETTING UP.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS
INLAND AND 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE COASTAL TERMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. A
LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT
FOG FORMATION...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS ATTM. VFR
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...VERY NEARLY A BERMUDA HIGH SUMMER REGIME
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS JUST EAST OF 70W BUT REMAINS EXTENDED WSW
INTO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW WINDS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
JETTING DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SURFACE...AND WITH WARMER
WATERS WELL OFFSHORE...THIS IS WHERE HIGHER WINDS WILL RESIDE. SW
10-15KT NEAR SHORE BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT FARTHER EAST AND MAINLY
BEYOND 10NM. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. SEAS HEIGHTS 2-4 FEET HIGHEST OUTER
PORTION AND THE SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF SE WAVE 2 FT EVERY
8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. WATER TEMPS
NEAR-SHORE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAND PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST OFF
THE COAST AND WINDS ARE EXPECT BLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 10
KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE
COAST ON SATURDAY AND WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE...NOT SO MUCH IN ITS BERMUDA POSITION BUT
DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS
QUITE MINIMAL. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
TIGHTEN THE FLOW SOME AND BRING A SMALL VEER AND ADD A FEW KNOTS
OF SPEED. THIS SHOULD ADD ABOUT A FOOT TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
MAINLY AWAY FROM SHORE. ON MONDAY HOWEVER THIS RAMP UP WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED AND CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. TUESDAY FROPA BRINGS SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE BUT
ADVISORY LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL FORM A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENED LOCALLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
120 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SATURDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WILL LOWER POPS SOME DESPITE
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS ONLY LIGHT ECHOES
ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER IL AND WS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LOW AND WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...VIRGA OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO JUST BELOW VALUES
INDICATED ON THE HRRR MODEL. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT JUST SLIGHTLY SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW RATHER WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED
FROM GRB TO MCI. RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
GIVEN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING FROM CENTRAL IL. WARMING SHOULD SHOULD BE RAPID. WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. DO NOT SEE MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE WILL LOWER POP FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SPRING TYPE WEATHER AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THERE IS
HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATES AND CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MONDAY
MORNING CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE MEAN TIME...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THIS WILL KEEP A WARM SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY
MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LOSE THE SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...I WILL BE LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
ONE REASON BEING IS THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT CUTS OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TONIGHT AND I THINK THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
RAIN. EXPECTING SKIES TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAY WIND UP LAYING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD HELP TO KEEP THE AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY. A SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL TAKE THE AREA OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY.
SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TRACK AS POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT AREA
COULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT WELL INTO MONDAY.
I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION OF THUNDER AND
WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH ON MONDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS
AROUND AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE GFS
MODEL TRIES TO HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT...SO BACKED DOWN ON THE POPS TO 20% AND
DECREASED THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP MIXING OCCURRING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS CROSSING LAKE
MICHIGAN AT 17Z. WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 33 TO 38 KNOT RANGE WILL BE
COMMON. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE. SINCE THE
LOW LEVELS ARE SO DRY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MVFR CEILINGS
WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THEN GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN WARM ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY ON
LAKE ERIE. EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THE
WAVES WILL NOT MAKE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER...THE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL. BECAUSE OF
THE ICE ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL ONLY HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UP TO GENEVA ON THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START AT
NOON AND THEN END AFTER DARK. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
LAKE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THEY MIX DOWN...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COLD ADVECTION. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE LAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1252 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SATURDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WILL LOWER POPS SOME DESPITE
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS ONLY LIGHT ECHOES
ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER IL AND WS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LOW AND WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...VIRGA OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO JUST BELOW VALUES
INDICATED ON THE HRRR MODEL. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT JUST SLIGHTLY SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW RATHER WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED
FROM GRB TO MCI. RATHER STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
GIVEN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON THE ILX SOUNDING THIS
MORNING FROM CENTRAL IL. WARMING SHOULD SHOULD BE RAPID. WILL BOOST
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. DO NOT SEE MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE TO
INCREASE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE WILL LOWER POP FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SPRING TYPE WEATHER AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THERE IS
HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATES AND CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MONDAY
MORNING CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN THE MEAN TIME...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THIS WILL KEEP A WARM SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE AIR MASS ACTUALLY
MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LOSE THE SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...I WILL BE LEANING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
ONE REASON BEING IS THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT CUTS OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TONIGHT AND I THINK THIS SHOULD BE A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
RAIN. EXPECTING SKIES TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAY WIND UP LAYING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD HELP TO KEEP THE AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY. A SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL TAKE THE AREA OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY.
SO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TRACK AS POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT AREA
COULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT WELL INTO MONDAY.
I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS DUE TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO MENTION OF THUNDER AND
WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH ON MONDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS
AROUND AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE GFS
MODEL TRIES TO HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. NOT SURE ABOUT THAT...SO BACKED DOWN ON THE POPS TO 20% AND
DECREASED THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND
THICKEN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR UNTIL
THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY...MAINLY OVER NW OH WHERE THE WINDS AT 2000
FEET ARE NEAR 45 KNOTS...ELSEWHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
ONLY LAST 2 TO 4 HOURS AND IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO 5 MILES AND THE CEILING
TO 3000 FEET. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT. AT THIS
TIME EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT EVEN WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN WARM ADVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY ON
LAKE ERIE. EVEN WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THE
WAVES WILL NOT MAKE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER...THE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL. BECAUSE OF
THE ICE ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL ONLY HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UP TO GENEVA ON THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START AT
NOON AND THEN END AFTER DARK. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
LAKE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THEY MIX DOWN...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE COLD ADVECTION. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE LAKE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
223 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
IT IS MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WITH SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY RUNNING IN A 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL SEE THESE WINDS EVENTUALLY COME
DOWN TO 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE...AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ANOTHER
DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...AND THE SOUTH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THEY ARE TODAY. WE`LL REPEAT FRIDAY`S WEATHER ON SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES. SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP NORTH (ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON)...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY MORNING AND THEN OFF THE COAST
AND THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN FOR
TUESDAY...THEN A WARMUP WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 42
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY WEAKENS. WINDS WILL
START TO COME BACK TO SCEC CRITERIA ON SUNDAY AGAIN AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NEW 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE FRONT A BIT PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
WINDY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 925
AND 850 MB 12Z ANALYSIS REVEALS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET JUST NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. ACROSS OUR AREA LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL MAX OUT AROUND 30 KTS. THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AN LIFR DECK BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ IFR DECK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING AT
POSSIBLE LIFR. WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FULLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT LIFR STRATUS DECK FORMATION. IFR/ MVFR CIGS
LOOK LIKELY FOR TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 81 65 80 66 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 80 63 79 67 / 0 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 76 67 75 69 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 925
AND 850 MB 12Z ANALYSIS REVEALS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET JUST NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. ACROSS OUR AREA LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL MAX OUT AROUND 30 KTS. THIS AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING AN LIFR DECK BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A BORDER LINE MVFR/ IFR DECK. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO HINTING AT
POSSIBLE LIFR. WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FULLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT LIFR STRATUS DECK FORMATION. IFR/ MVFR CIGS
LOOK LIKELY FOR TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. UPDATE THE WIND GRIDS
SEVERAL KNOTS...AND THAT IS GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 45) SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH FOR LATE THIS MORNING
AND ON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS TOO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS BUILDING TONIGHT...SO EXPECT TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS MOSTLY UNTOUCHED. UNDER JUST
A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON`S TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND IN THE MID 70S AT THE COAST. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
START THE DAY WITH VFR CIGS AND WINDS BECOMING QUITE GUSTY MAINLY
BY AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KTS FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS BRING IN SOME TYPE OF MVFR DECK FOR AREA
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 07-08Z FRI MORNING. NAM SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW MVFR OR IFR IN SOME CASES. GFS LIKES MVFR CIGS
FOR NOW SO WILL STICK WITH THAT TREND IN THE EXTENDED PART OF TAF.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH FORECAST AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS SHEAR OUT THE LOW AND BY SUNDAY MORNING HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER SE TX ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY.
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE THE WIND AND
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLE IN FORECASTING
NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREED WITH THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLOW INCREASE IN THE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS BUFR MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SHORTWAVE WAS SHOWN
TO BE MORE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FITS
NICELY WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ERODING THE CAP OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES MORE THAN OVER THE SOUTH. TWEAKED THE CURRENT FORECAST SO
THAT THERE WERE ISOLATED POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY
MORNING. FELT THAT SCATTERED POPS WERE GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO LIVINGSTON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR KCLL AND
KLFK FORECAST CAPE VALUES 2400 TO 3000 AND HELICITY VALUES FROM
300 TO 375. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM APPROACHES WITH THE AREA NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH BUT THERE IS BETTER VORTICITY
ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. CAUTION
FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE
SEAS. THE 00Z THUR GFS AND WED 12Z ECMWF ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. GFS
IS A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z THUR ECMWF. FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z WED
ECMWF. REGARDLESS EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 80 65 80 66 / 0 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 80 63 80 67 / 0 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 75 67 76 69 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...23